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What Are Lagging Indicators, and How Can You Use ThemWhat Are Lagging Indicators, and How Can You Use Them in Trading?
Lagging indicators are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping traders confirm trends and assess market momentum using historical price data. This article explores what lagging indicators are, the types available, and how traders use them in their strategies. We’ll also discuss their limitations and common mistakes traders should avoid.
What Are Lagging Indicators?
Lagging technical indicators are tools that traders use to confirm the direction of a price trend after it has already begun. There are leading and lagging technical indicators. The difference between leading and lagging indicators is that the former signal future price movements while the latter relying on past data help traders spot well-established trends.
These indicators work by smoothing out price movements over time, which helps traders analyse whether a trend is likely to continue. For example, after a market has been rising steadily, a lagging indicator may show that the trend has solidified, giving traders more confidence in their analysis. However, because they react to past movements, lagging indicators can be slow to signal when a trend is reversing, which is why they’re often used alongside other tools.
A lagging indicator is particularly useful in trending markets, where it can help confirm the strength and direction of price action. They aren’t as effective in sideways or range-bound markets because they lag behind real-time movements. Still, when used correctly, they can offer traders valuable insight into the market’s overall momentum and help filter out noise from short-term fluctuations.
Types of Lagging Indicators
Lagging indicators come in a few main types, each offering a unique way to analyse market trends.
These include trend-following indicators, such as moving averages, which smooth out price data to highlight the overall market direction. There are also volatility-based indicators, like Bollinger Bands, which assess the market’s fluctuations to identify possible turning points.
Additionally, momentum indicators, such as the MACD, track the speed of price changes to provide insight into the strength of a trend. Each class of indicator serves a specific purpose, giving traders different angles for analysing market movements based on past price data.
Note that lagging indicators in technical analysis are distinct from lagging economic indicators. The former uses historical price data to offer insights into future market movements, while the latter reflects past economic performance, providing a backwards-looking view of trends like unemployment, inflation, or GDP growth, which confirm the state of the economy only after changes have already taken place.
Below, we’ll explore four examples of key lagging indicators. To see these indicators in action, try them out on FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform.
Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the most widely used tools in technical analysis, helping traders smooth out price data to better identify market trends. There are many types of moving averages, but most traders use two primary types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While both calculate averages over a set period, the EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to market changes compared to the SMA, which treats all price points equally.
One of the key signals moving averages produce is the crossover, also called the Golden Cross and Death Cross. A Golden Cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average, like the 50-period EMA, crosses above a longer-term moving average, such as the 200-period EMA, indicating potential upward momentum. On the other hand, a Death Cross happens when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA, signalling a possible bearish shift. These crossovers help traders identify potential trend reversals.
Moving averages can be utilised as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, prices often bounce off a moving average, acting as support. In downtrends, the same moving average can act as resistance, preventing price rises.
Another signal is the angle of the moving average itself. A rising moving average suggests an uptrend and a falling one indicates a downtrend. Traders often interpret this alongside whether the price sits above or below the moving average.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a versatile tool in technical analysis, designed to measure market volatility and potential overbought or oversold conditions. Created by John Bollinger, the indicator consists of three lines: a middle band (typically a 20-period simple moving average), and two outer bands plotted at two standard deviations above and below the middle band. These bands dynamically adjust as volatility changes, making them useful in different market environments.
According to theory, buyers dominate the market when the price rises above the middle line, while a drop below this line signals sellers gaining control. The bands can often act as a dynamic support/resistance level. However, these aren’t stand-alone buy or sell signals and should be confirmed with other indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), to avoid false alarms.
Another common signal Bollinger Bands provide is overbought and oversold conditions. When prices exceed the upper band, the market might be overbought, indicating potential exhaustion of upward momentum. Conversely, a dip below the lower band may suggest the asset is oversold, potentially signalling a bounce or reversal.
Another important signal Bollinger Bands provide is the Bollinger Band squeeze. This occurs when the bands contract tightly around the price, indicating low volatility. Traders see this as a precursor to a potential breakout, though the direction of the move is unknown until confirmed by price action. Once volatility expands, traders can look for a breakout above or below the bands to gauge direction.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular momentum indicator that helps traders identify changes in market trends. It includes three key components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram.
The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA, which provides insight into the relationship between short-term and long-term price movements. The signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line, and the histogram shows the difference between the MACD and the signal line.
MACD generates two key signals. First is the signal line crossover, where traders watch for the MACD line to cross above the signal line, which is often seen as a potential bullish indicator. When the MACD crosses below the signal line, it could indicate bearish momentum. The second signal is the zero-line crossover. When the MACD line crosses above the zero line, it suggests a shift toward bullish momentum, while crossing below the zero line may indicate bearish momentum.
The MACD histogram helps traders visualise the strength of momentum. Histogram bars above the zero line indicate bullish momentum, while bars below the zero line signal bearish pressure. As the bars contract, it may signal a weakening trend and a potential reversal.
Another key feature of MACD is divergence. If the price moves in one direction but the MACD moves in the opposite direction, it may signal a potential trend reversal. For instance, when the price is making higher highs but the indicator is making lower highs, it could indicate that upward momentum is weakening.
Average Directional Index (ADX)
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures the strength of a trend, regardless of whether it's moving up or down. Created by J. Welles Wilder, it helps traders assess whether the market is trending or moving sideways. The ADX line ranges from 0 to 100, where values below 20 suggest a weak or non-existent trend and values above 25 indicate a strong trend. The higher the reading, the stronger the trend, with anything above 50 signalling very strong market momentum.
The ADX doesn’t specify whether the trend is bullish or bearish—it only gauges strength. To determine the trend's direction, traders typically combine ADX with the Directional Movement Indicators (DMI), which include the +DI and -DI lines (in the image above, ADX is represented with the pink line, while +DI is blue and -DI is orange). When the +DI is above the -DI, the trend is likely upward, and when -DI is above +DI, the trend is likely downward.
Key signals include the 25 level: a reading above this suggests that a trend is gaining strength. As ADX rises, the trend intensifies, and when it falls, the trend may be weakening, though this doesn’t necessarily imply a reversal.
ADX is particularly useful for trend-following strategies, but it’s important to combine it with other indicators for confirmation, as it doesn’t determine market direction.
How Traders Use Lagging Indicators
Traders use lagging indicators to confirm trends and evaluate the strength of market movements based on historical data. Here are several common ways traders apply these tools:
- Trend Confirmation: Lagging indicators help verify whether a price trend is well-established. For example, moving averages smooth out price data to confirm whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend. Traders use these indicators to avoid reacting to short-term volatility and focus on longer-term trends.
- Measuring Trend Strength: Indicators like the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Bollinger Bands are used to assess how strong a trend is. A rising ADX signals increasing momentum, while Bollinger Bands widening can indicate higher volatility, suggesting the trend might persist.
- Spotting Momentum Shifts: Lagging indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) or moving average crossovers can highlight shifts in momentum. For instance, when the MACD line crosses the signal line, it suggests a change in momentum, which could signal the continuation or reversal of a trend.
- Filtering Noise: Lagging indicators help traders filter out short-term market noise. By focusing on longer periods, like a 200-period moving average, traders can avoid being misled by temporary price fluctuations, ensuring they base decisions on potentially more stable trends.
Drawbacks and Common Mistakes with Lagging Indicators
While lagging indicators can be helpful, they come with limitations that traders should be aware of.
- Delayed Signals: Lagging indicators rely on historical data, which means they often confirm trends after they’ve already started. This delay can cause traders to enter or exit positions too late, missing a significant portion of the move.
- False Confidence in Trending Markets: Traders might over-rely on lagging indicators during sideways or choppy markets, leading to misleading signals. For example, the MACD might generate false crossovers, causing unnecessary trades in non-trending environments.
- Overuse Without Confirmation: A common mistake is using a single lagging indicator without additional tools for confirmation. This can result in trades based solely on outdated data, ignoring real-time market shifts. Combining lagging indicators with leading ones, like the RSI, can help avoid this trap.
The Bottom Line
Lagging indicators are valuable tools for confirming trends and helping traders make informed decisions based on historical data. While they have their limitations, such as delayed signals, they remain essential for understanding market momentum. Ready to apply these insights to more than 700 live markets? Open an FXOpen account today and start trading on four advanced trading platforms with low costs and rapid execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is a Lagging Indicator?
The lagging indicators definition refers to a tool used in technical analysis that confirms trends based on historical price data. It provides insight into the strength and direction of trends after they’ve already started, helping traders to confirm the momentum. Such indicators are moving averages and the Average Directional Index (ADX).
What Are Forward (Leading) vs Lagging Indicators?
Forward (leading) indicators attempt to determine future market movements while lagging indicators confirm past trends. Forward indicators, like the stochastic oscillator, signal potential price changes, while lagging indicators, like moving averages, confirm established trends.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Pulse of an Asset via Fibonacci: TSLA at ATH Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology: (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
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Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity.
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
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want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
Safe Haven Volume-Weighted Cross-Asset Correlation Insights1. Introduction
Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen, are vital components in diversified portfolios, especially during periods of market uncertainty. These assets tend to attract capital in times of economic distress, serving as hedges against risk. While traditional price correlation analyses have long been used to assess relationships between assets, they often fail to account for the nuances introduced by trading volume and liquidity.
In this article, we delve into volume-weighted returns, a metric that incorporates trading volume into correlation analysis. This approach reveals deeper insights into the interplay between safe-haven assets and broader market dynamics. By examining how volume-weighted correlations evolve across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can uncover actionable patterns and refine their strategies.
The aim is to provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of safe-haven assets, bridging the gap between traditional price-based correlations and liquidity-driven metrics to empower traders with more comprehensive insights.
2. The Role of Volume in Correlation Analysis
Volume-weighted returns account for the magnitude of trading activity, offering a nuanced view of asset relationships. For safe-haven assets, this is particularly important, as periods of high trading volume often coincide with heightened market stress or major economic events. By integrating volume into return calculations, traders can better understand how liquidity flows shape market trends.
3. Heatmap Analysis: Key Insights
The heatmaps of volume-weighted return correlations across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes provide a wealth of insights into the behavior of safe-haven assets. Key observations include:
Gold (GC) and Treasuries (ZN): These assets exhibit stronger correlations over weekly and monthly timeframes. This alignment often reflects shared macroeconomic drivers, such as inflation expectations or central bank policy decisions, which influence safe-haven demand.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
These findings highlight the evolving nature of cross-asset relationships and the role volume plays in amplifying or dampening correlations. By analyzing these trends, traders can gain a clearer understanding of the market forces at play.
4. Case Studies: Safe-Haven Dynamics
Gold vs. Treasuries (GC vs. ZN):
Gold and Treasuries are often considered classic safe-haven assets, attracting investor capital during periods of inflationary pressure or market turbulence. Volume-weighted return correlations between these two assets tend to strengthen in weekly and monthly timeframes.
For example:
During inflationary periods, both assets see heightened demand, reflected in higher trading volumes and stronger correlations.
Geopolitical uncertainties, such as trade wars or military conflicts, often lead to synchronized movements as investors seek safety.
The volume-weighted perspective adds depth, revealing how liquidity flows into these markets align during systemic risk episodes, providing traders with an additional layer of analysis for portfolio hedging.
5. Implications for Traders
Portfolio Diversification:
Volume-weighted correlations offer a unique way to assess diversification benefits. For example:
Weakening correlations between Gold and Treasuries during stable periods may signal opportunities to increase exposure to other uncorrelated assets.
Conversely, stronger correlations during market stress highlight the need to diversify beyond safe havens to reduce concentration risk.
Risk Management:
Tracking volume-weighted correlations helps traders detect shifts in safe-haven demand. For instance:
A sudden spike in the volume-weighted correlation between Treasuries and the Japanese Yen may indicate heightened risk aversion, suggesting a need to adjust portfolio exposure.
Declining correlations could signal the return of idiosyncratic drivers, providing opportunities to rebalance holdings.
Trade Timing:
Volume-weighted metrics can enhance timing strategies by confirming market trends:
Strengthening correlations between safe-haven assets can validate macroeconomic narratives, such as inflation fears or geopolitical instability, helping traders align their strategies accordingly.
Conversely, weakening correlations may signal the onset of new market regimes, offering early indications for tactical repositioning.
6. Limitations and Considerations
While volume-weighted return analysis offers valuable insights, it is essential to understand its limitations:
Influence of Extreme Events:
Significant market events, such as unexpected central bank announcements or geopolitical crises, can create anomalies in volume-weighted correlations. These events may temporarily distort the relationships between assets, leading to misleading signals for traders who rely solely on this metric.
Short-Term Noise:
Volume-weighted correlations over shorter timeframes, such as daily windows, are more susceptible to market noise. Sudden spikes in trading volume driven by speculative activity or high-frequency trading can obscure meaningful trends.
Interpretation Challenges:
Understanding the drivers behind changes in volume-weighted correlations requires a strong grasp of macroeconomic forces and market structure. Without context, traders risk misinterpreting these dynamics, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions.
By recognizing these limitations, traders can use volume-weighted correlations as a complementary tool rather than a standalone solution, combining it with other forms of analysis for more robust decision-making.
7. Conclusion
Volume-weighted return analysis provides a fresh lens for understanding the complex dynamics of safe-haven assets. By integrating trading volume into correlation metrics, this approach uncovers liquidity-driven relationships that are often missed in traditional price-based analyses.
Key takeaways from this study include:
Safe-haven assets such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen exhibit stronger volume-weighted correlations over longer timeframes, driven by shared macroeconomic forces.
For traders, the practical applications are clear: volume-weighted correlations can potentially enhance portfolio diversification, refine risk management strategies, and improve market timing. By incorporating this type of methodology into their workflow, market participants can adapt to shifting market conditions with greater precision.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Mastering The Timing Of Trade Exits In Trading Most newbie traders tend to focus on the entry point of a trade, believing that as long as they initiate a position correctly, they can manage their way to a profit later. They often think, “It’s okay if I earn a little; I can always close the trade once the price moves in my favor.” Unfortunately, this mindset often leads to disappointing outcomes. Traders may find themselves either underwhelmed by their gains due to greed—thinking, “Just a little longer, and I’ll secure my profits”—or missing the exit altogether, resulting in a break-even scenario.
The situation becomes even trickier when prices move against the trader. Many cling to the hope of a miraculous turnaround, refusing to acknowledge their losses, and instead, they adjust their stop-loss orders, convinced that the market must eventually rebound. This often leads to further losses as they watch their deposits dwindle. To avoid these pitfalls, it's crucial to understand when to close a trade for maximum benefit, as explored in this post.
📍 Strategic Approaches to Closing Trades
Closing a trade effectively requires timing it neither too early nor too late. Premature exits can lead to missed opportunities for profit, while waiting too long can result in significant losses.
📍 When to Close Trades?
• Identifying Reversal Patterns: Recognizing patterns that indicate a reversal is essential. For instance, during an uptrend, buyers eventually taper off because prices become too high. Those who bought at the onset may begin selling, and if a pinbar forms followed by a bearish engulfing model, this is a clear signal to close before a downturn.
• Combining Signals from Indicators: Utilize multiple indicators to gauge the market trend. If trend indicators show a downturn and oscillators indicate overbought conditions, it may be time to close a long position. Patterns and signals should work in concert for the best results.
• Following Risk Management Strategies: Tailor your exit strategy to your risk management plan. Strategies could include setting a take-profit level at 50-60% of daily volatility or maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.
• Using Risk Management Calculations: This involves observing the pip value and the 1.0-2.0% rule. For example, if your account has a balance of $1,000, limit your loss on any trade to $100 based on the volume of the trade. Accordingly, your take profit should be 2%-3% or more.
• Monitoring Candlestick Patterns: A shift in the strength of candlestick bodies can indicate a forthcoming reversal. If you see a consistent decline in candlestick sizes during a price breakout, this can be a cue for an imminent trend shift.
• Paying Attention to Key Levels: Many traders place pending orders around key support and resistance levels. Understanding that price may not reach these levels can inform your take-profit and stop-loss placement.
• Before Major News Releases: Anticipate how significant news might impact the market. Though there may be statistical predictions, volatility can be unpredictable. Closing trades in advance can help manage unexpected market movements.
• At the End of Trading Cycles: Prior to weekends or before the day ends, consider closing positions. This is crucial as weekend events can dramatically shift prices, and exposure over multiple days can incur costs, akin to interest on leverage.
• Rebalancing Investments: In the stock market, periodically analyze portfolio performance, selling off underperforming assets to maintain profitability. This concept can also apply to trading, helping to recalibrate your positions for better outcomes.
📍 Conclusion
Understanding the timing of closing trades is critical for any trader. By applying these strategies and learning from past experience, you can better navigate the complexities of trading and improve your overall profitability.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Candlestick Analyzes - Part OneThe Weakest Candle
A Spinning Top/Bottom (a candle with the same sized upper and lower shadow) is the weakest and the most important candle for us. Note that the body size of the candle is not important. We analyze it like this:
1. if it appears in the middle of a trend, we expect the trend to continue, as a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. otherwise, most likely we will get into range or reversal.
2. If it appears at a key level, until observing the next candle, we cannot analyze what could happen. If there is at least a medium-sized candle in whatever direction, we expect the price to continue in that direction, otherwise, it's a range!
Let's look at the chart:
- Candle #1 is in the middle of a trend, but after it, we see a bearish candle. So, it's a range or reversal.
- After seeing candle #1, we draw the box for the MC candle. So, candle #2 is shaped at the support of it. We have to wait to see what will come after it. Because the next candle is a bearish one, we expect the bearish movement to continue, and it continues.
- Candle #3 shaped after a strong breakout. If trends tend to continue, we expect at least a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. Otherwise, it'll be a range or reversal coming.
XAUUSD multi timeframe Analysis M1 and w1 are indicating the bearish trend if only the last lower support 2620-2630 area is broken then market will create and M pattern on w1 to proper retest of 0.382 FIB level Which will be 2680.
on the other hand H4 & D1 it been more than 2 weeks market is in consolidation from 2630-2660 area.
if the market break the 2630 them our eyes will be at 2580 first however same as break of 2660 resistance area first target will be 2680 which I 'm expecting first .
GANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE GANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE – W.D. GANN’S METHODOLOGY - The principles of W.D. Gann's trading methodology continue to intrigue and challenge traders worldwide.
At the core of Gann's approach lies the harmonious relationship between price and time, encapsulated in his concept of "squaring."
This principle emphasizes balancing movements in price with corresponding movements in time, thus uncovering the rhythmic and periodic nature of the markets.
Understanding Time Balance in Trading
Gann emphasized the significance of time balance, which involves aligning the duration of a market movement with its magnitude.
This balance is critical because markets, according to Gann, inherently strive to return to a state of harmony, even after experiencing disharmonious phases.
Recognizing these patterns enables traders to anticipate turning points and identify optimal trading opportunities.
The Concept of the Initial Impulse
Gann’s methodology suggests that every market movement begins with an “initial impulse,” which sets the stage for subsequent trends.
This impulse, whether periodic or rhythmic, forms the foundation for future market behavior. Periodic movements repeat after fixed intervals, while rhythmic movements grow proportionally to the initial impulse.
Understanding and marking these impulses on price charts is a vital step in applying Gann’s techniques.
The Series 144 and Squaring Principles
Gann frequently referenced the significance of numerical series, particularly THE 144 SERIES . He argued that price movements often align with values derived from this sequence.
For instance, the duration of an initial impulse may correspond to one value in the series, while subsequent reactions adhere to multiples or subdivisions of this value.
Squaring, a cornerstone of Gann’s theory, involves matching price ranges with equivalent time periods. This can be applied in various forms:
Squaring the price range: Balancing the maximum and minimum price range over a specific time period.
Squaring the minimum price: Equating the duration of a move with its lowest price point.
Squaring the maximum price: Aligning the time elapsed with the highest price point.
Periodic and Rhythmic Movements
According to Gann, markets exhibit both periodic and rhythmic behaviors. Periodic movements repeat after a set number of time units, while rhythmic movements expand or contract in known proportions.
Identifying these characteristics is crucial for marking trends accurately and predicting future price action.
Key Considerations in Applying Gann’s Method
Inharmonious Market Behavior: Gann acknowledged that markets often deviate from ideal structures but emphasized that they ultimately revert to harmony. Recognizing these deviations and their eventual corrections is central to mastering his method.
Critical Points of Strength: Gann’s theory highlights the importance of key levels, such as 50% retracements, as points where price and time converge.
Templates and Extreme Values: Gann’s approach involves overlaying templates based on extreme highs and lows for specific time units (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) to track market behavior accurately.
The Law of Vibration
Central to Gann’s teachings is the “Law of Vibration,” which posits that all market movements follow universal laws of motion and rhythm.
By studying the past and present, traders can predict future price action with remarkable precision. This principle underpins the repetitive nature of market trends and cycles, reinforcing Gann’s assertion that history repeats itself.
Gann’s Legacy
Gann’s work, often regarded as esoteric, challenges traders to elevate their understanding of market dynamics. His insights into the interplay of time and price continue to inspire new generations of traders to uncover the “Creator’s plan” in financial markets.
While applying his methods requires patience and meticulous study, the rewards are profound for those who master the art of balance and harmony in trading.
Conclusion
By embracing the principles of time balance, the initial impulse, numerical series, and the Law of Vibration, traders can uncover patterns and cycles that enhance their market predictions.
Although Gann’s techniques require dedication and a willingness to delve into intricate concepts, they offer profound insights for those who persevere. His legacy endures as a testament to the potential of blending analytical precision with universal principles, making his methods a timeless guide for mastering market rhythms.
Join the Discussion:
Do you agree with Gann that TIME is the most critical factor in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences below!
Understanding Market Forces and Liquidity CollectionMarkets move to areas where liquidity exists, so learning to spot these zones can help you identify where the "smart money" is likely to act.
Smart Money Trading focuses on understanding how institutional players (banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) operate in financial markets. These entities have the capital to influence price movements, often targeting areas of liquidity to fill their large orders. Liquidity collection refers to the process of gathering buy or sell orders at key levels, such as swing highs, swing lows, or consolidation zones, where retail traders typically place their stop losses.
For example, if you see price spiking briefly above a resistance level before reversing sharply, this is often an institution "collecting liquidity" by triggering stop orders placed by retail traders. Recognising these patterns allows smart traders to align their trades with institutional strategies instead of fighting against them.
Key takeaway: Markets move to areas where liquidity exists, so learning to spot these zones can help you identify where the "smart money" is likely to act.
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Topic: Time Factor Ideation - Theory for my subscribers
I was thinking this is not the right platform for these ideas but I had to correct myself & post as soon as possible.
Let’s start!
There’s a fascinating correlation between time and investing and time and trading.
There’s actually a natural correlation of time in all cycles. Market Cycles / Economic cycles / Adoption Cycles, Life cycle.
This gnawing prevalence of time and its impact has been explored by a ton of great traders and investors & a result of some of these investigations had lead to us developing a ton of tools: Gan Fans, Fibonacci etc.
The issue with short term trading is that we missed out the greatest tool in investing - time. This is not a knock or promotion of one trading style over another just ideation of thoughts.
Money can be made everyday in the stock market full stop. It doesn’t mean you should be in the stock market everyday. To add it would be wise to listen to the advice of great traders - you should take time a way from the markets. Or surely we will suffer the same faith of those before us.
Continuing previous points. -
We can be at the right place, with the right tools but at the wrong time. You might lose 20 trades in a row due to being right but repeatedly punished for trying to time a move.
You might not be wrong - you are also not right.
If only you kept your first trade open with a clear invalidation level. How many times have you walked away from a good ticker / trade due to frustration and then see it work out?
I’ll go first all the time!
An issue of traders then might be the need to (trade) — for better or worse. Maybe we should change our title to Wealth Obtainer. I kid!
You might get the raise you were looking for but at the wrong time & now you’ve missed out on the opportunity to buy the starter home. Now you are buying overvalued homes in high inflation environments with high interest rates / insurance.
You might be the largest sheep farmer - in a time period where there are no use for sheep and wool.
If only I bought Nvidia while I was 3 year old.
THE CYCLE OF MARKET EMOTIONSWhen delving into the world of trading, one pivotal aspect often overlooked is psychology. In trading, we engage in two distinct psychological aspects: the collective psychology of the trading community and our unique mindset as individual traders. While we cannot change the psychology of the masses, understanding it is crucial. Equally important is the necessity to reflect on and, if needed, adjust our own psychological framework. In this article, we will primarily focus on the psychology of the individual trader.
The Complex Nature of Trading
As an aspiring trader, sooner or later, you will come to appreciate that the intricacies of trading go far beyond merely analyzing charts and fundamental data. It’s a common belief that a majority of new traders—around 80%—will face failure early on. If you haven’t experienced failure yet, consider yourself fortunate, and prepare for the inevitable realization: many of your trading challenges stem from within.
One of the most significant emotional hurdles traders face is fear—fear of missing opportunities, fear of losing money, fear of leaving profits untapped, and fear of making mistakes. If you wish to thrive in this field, overcoming these fears is essential.
The Weight of Fear
Throughout our lives, we’re conditioned to avoid being wrong and to strive to secure our finances. However, trading operates on a different frequency. Many traders dedicate their time solely to identifying promising trades. Once they enter a position, they often experience a tumultuous rollercoaster of emotions, ranging from anxiety over potential losses to elation during winning streaks. It’s vital to recognize that successful trading is not only about these emotions but about keeping them in check.
Experienced traders understand the fundamental role psychology plays in trading; conversely, novices may overlook or dismiss it. I aim to help you develop a better understanding of emotional management as a trader.
Prioritizing Survival
Before anything else, as a trader, you must prioritize staying in the game; survival comes first. Research shows that approximately 90% of traders fail before they ever achieve consistent profits. To belong to the successful 10%, you must adopt a different mindset.
It’s unfortunate that many individuals are drawn to trading due to the thrill it offers—the allure of quick profits with little initial capital. For such traders, the thrill often leads to reckless decisions, with no concrete strategy in place. Instead of following a thorough trading plan that accounts for risk management, they bounce from one tip to another, often neglecting the discipline crucial for success.
The Pitfalls of Emotional Trading
Trading motivated purely by excitement leads to poor decisions characterized by high risk and unfavorable odds. When a loss occurs, many traders seek external factors to blame: the market’s fluctuations, manipulation by large players, or insider trading. However, the harsh reality is that the primary person to be held accountable is you—the trader.
Accepting personal responsibility is a fundamental step towards becoming a successful trader.
Essential Ingredients for Trading Success
To navigate the path of successful trading, you will need to master four critical components: psychology, market analysis, a robust trading plan, and effective money management. In this exploration, we will focus primarily on the psychological component.
Read Also:
The Value of Psychological Awareness
People often ponder whether my background in psychology has contributed to my trading success. The answer is yes. Psychology equips me with the ability to face reality and introspect regarding my emotional responses. This training has taught me that dwelling on past mistakes or feeling regretful is unproductive—what truly matters is taking actionable steps for improvement.
Learn to view each trade as an isolated event, unaffected by previous or subsequent trades. Losses are an inevitable part of trading, and embracing them as a reality is crucial for long-term success.
Understanding Your Trading Style
It’s essential to reflect on your trading personality. Are you a discretionary trader—one who relies on instinct and external inputs such as news articles, broker tips, or peer opinions? Or are you a mechanical trader—someone who follows a well-defined trading plan, adapting it slowly over time while avoiding changes during open trades?
Identifying your style will not only help you understand your reactions to the stresses of trading but will also guide you in crafting a suitable trading plan.
Discovering the Secret to Success
Every trader grapples with the pressures of this challenging profession. Yet, what gives you an edge in this competitive landscape filled with seasoned professionals equipped with advanced tools? The answer lies within you.
Your perception shapes your trading experience. Only you can gauge how you will respond to criticism, endure losing streaks, or celebrate significant wins. Your beliefs and values dictate your attitude toward money, risk, excitement, and perseverance. Becoming aware of these elements is the first step toward mastery—controlling or, if necessary, transforming them.
Read Also:
Crafting Your Trading Plan
To better understand your trading persona, consider maintaining a trading journal. Document your emotional responses, trading behaviors, and overall experiences. This exercise will reveal vital insights about whether you're suited for a specific trading style—be it investment, day trading, or longer-term strategies—and help you craft an appropriate trading plan that aligns with your unique personality.
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Conclusion: The Road Ahead
Trading is undoubtedly a difficult and stressful endeavor. However, with the right mindset and tools at your disposal, you can navigate this challenging field with confidence. This article serves as an introduction to understanding the vital psychological factors that can influence your trading performance. As you progress, remember to continually assess your emotional health and refine your trading strategy. Establish a comprehensive trading plan before you leap into future trades, ensuring that you’re as prepared as possible for the challenges ahead. With dedication and self-awareness, you can significantly increase your chances of thriving in the trading world.
By focusing on your mental approach and understanding the roots of your trading behavior, you can pave the way for a successful future in the exciting world of share trading.
Happy trading!
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GANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICEGANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE – THE CORE OF W.D. GANN’S METHODOLOGY
William Delbert Gann, one of the most enigmatic figures in trading history, built his legendary status on a profound understanding of market movements. Among his many revolutionary insights, none resonate more than his assertion: “TIME is more important than PRICE.” Gann's studies reveal that markets are governed by cyclical laws where TIME dictates market behavior, and PRICE merely reflects the outcomes.
This article delves deeply into Gann’s philosophy, integrating examples, methodologies, and references from his works, to illuminate why mastering TIME can give traders a significant edge.
Understanding the Superiority of TIME in Trading
1. The Foundation of Gann’s Philosophy:
- In his book “The Tunnel Thru the Air”, Gann states, “The future is but a repetition of the past; cycles can be studied and predicted with mathematical precision.”
- This emphasizes that TIME controls market events. Price, on the other hand, is secondary—a mere result of the unfolding TIME cycles.
2. Why TIME is More Important Than PRICE:
- PRICE is Reactive: Price changes happen as a result of events, but those events themselves are determined by TIME cycles. Without the correct timing, price predictions are speculative at best.
- TIME is Predictive: Understanding TIME cycles allows traders to foresee when significant price movements are likely to occur, providing a roadmap for market behavior.
3. The Illusion of PRICE:
- Traders often fall into the trap of chasing prices—buying highs or selling lows—without realizing that markets move within predetermined TIME windows. Gann showed that price breakouts or breakdowns are unsustainable if they occur outside critical TIME cycles.
Key Concepts from Gann’s Methodology on TIME
1. The Law of Vibration: Gann believed that every market has its unique vibration, influenced by TIME cycles. In “The Law of Vibration”, Gann explains that market movements align with natural and cosmic vibrations, which repeat over TIME.
2. Cyclicality of Markets: Markets move in cycles determined by TIME. Gann’s studies revealed major cycles such as:
- The 20-Year Cycle: Markets often exhibit significant highs or lows every 20 years.
- The 60-Year Cycle: This aligns with major economic booms and depressions.
- Planetary Cycles: Gann tied TIME cycles to planetary movements, including the 11.86-year Jupiter cycle and Saturn’s 29.5-year orbit.
3.The Square of Nine and TIME Projections: Gann’s Square of Nine is one of his most famous tools. While often used to predict price levels, it is equally powerful for determining TIME turning points.
Example: The Square of Nine can map out important dates when markets are likely to reverse, based on the angle of price and TIME.
4. Geometry in TIME: In “The Geometry of Stock Market Profits”, Gann emphasized the relationship between price and TIME through angles. A 1x1 angle (45 degrees) represents the ideal balance between price and TIME. Any deviation from this angle signals acceleration or deceleration in the trend.
5. Astrological Influence on TIME: Gann’s work integrates astrology to predict TIME cycles. He studied planetary aspects, transits, and lunar phases to determine when markets would experience significant changes.
Example: Gann highlighted the importance of eclipses, retrogrades, and planetary conjunctions in marking market highs and lows.
Practical Applications of TIME in Trading
1. Time-Price Symmetry: Gann believed that price movements often mirror TIME durations.
Example: If a market drops 100 points over 10 days, it is likely to recover 100 points over a similar TIME interval.
2. Repetition of Historical Cycles:
Gann showed that the 1929 crash followed a similar TIME pattern to earlier financial crises. By studying historical TIME intervals, traders can predict future market events.
Timing Highs and Lows:
3. Use Fibonacci TIME zones to identify when markets are likely to peak or bottom. Combine this with Gann’s techniques, such as using the Square of Nine, for precise predictions.
Seasonality and TIME Cycles:
4. Markets are influenced by seasonal and cyclical TIME patterns. Gann demonstrated that major market reversals often coincide with solstices, equinoxes, and other seasonal turning points.
Examples of TIME’s Importance in Gann’s Predictions
1. The 1929 Stock Market Crash: Gann predicted the crash using TIME cycles, noting that it occurred 60 years after the Panic of 1869 and 30 years after the 1899 bear market.
2. The 1987 Crash: Gann’s methods, when applied to long-term TIME cycles, also align with the 1987 crash. It occurred exactly 58 years after the 1929 collapse, reflecting the repetitive nature of TIME cycles.
The Interplay Between TIME and PRICE
While PRICE is easier to track and analyze, Gann believed that the greatest trading success comes from aligning PRICE movements with TIME predictions. He illustrated this in his “Master Forecasting Course”, where he taught students to:
- Map out major TIME cycles.
- Identify the angles and relationships between TIME and PRICE.
- Use TIME as a framework to validate PRICE movements.
Steps to Master Gann’s TIME Methodology
Study Historical Cycles:
- Identify significant market events and analyze the TIME intervals between them.
Use Tools Like the Square of Nine:
- Plot critical TIME intervals to predict market reversals.
Combine TIME Analysis with Price Patterns:
- Validate price movements with TIME projections to confirm trends or reversals.
Incorporate Natural and Planetary Cycles:
- Use planetary ephemerides and lunar calendars to enhance TIME forecasts.
Conclusion: Why TIME is the Ultimate Edge
Gann’s timeless wisdom teaches us that focusing solely on PRICE is like chasing shadows. TIME is the true master, dictating when markets turn, rally, or crash. By mastering TIME, traders can move from being reactive to predictive, seizing opportunities before they manifest.
As Gann said, “When TIME is up, price will reverse.” This simple yet profound truth encapsulates the essence of his methodology. Focus on TIME, and the illusion of PRICE will reveal its secrets.
Join the Discussion:
Do you agree with Gann that TIME is the most critical factor in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences below!
Spotting Trends & Unlocking Opportunities in CountertrendDear Traders,
Sometimes my ideas' wording may be weird for you.
This is because I use a quite unique method to find opportunities on the market.
It is not just unique, but quite simple as well.
Best,
Zen
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
Getting a Clearer Picture of Your Trading with Key MetricsWhen we look at our trading results, it’s easy to focus on one number: how much money we made or lost 💰. But that alone doesn’t tell us the full story. By breaking things down into a few basic metrics, we can see what’s really going on and figure out where we need to improve.
Start by looking at how many trades you won versus how many you lost. That’s your Winning Trades and Losing Trades count. But counting wins and losses isn’t enough. Check your Total Winning P&L and Total Losing P&L , these show how much money you gained overall on winning trades and how much you lost on losing ones. From there, dig into the details: Average Winning P&L and Average Losing P&L tell you the typical size of your profits and losses, helping you see if your winners generally outpace your losers.
Your Win Rate is the percentage of trades that ended up profitable, while your Loss Rate is the percentage that ended in a loss. A high win rate feels good, but it doesn’t mean much if the losses are huge. That’s why the Profit Factor (Reward-to-Risk Ratio) is so important, it compares how much you’ve made on winning trades to how much you’ve lost on losing ones. If you want a quick snapshot of your long-term performance, look at Expectancy , which blends all of this together into the average profit (or loss) you can expect per trade over time. Your Final P&L 💵 shows your bottom line after everything is said and done.
It also helps to know how your biggest successes and failures stack up. Look at your Largest Win and Largest Loss to get a feel for how extreme your outliers are. To understand the everyday “feel” of your trading, check out your Median P&L . Unlike an average, the median isn’t thrown off by a few giant wins or losses, so it shows what a typical trade looks like.
And finally, the Standard Deviation tells you how much your results vary from one trade to the next. A high standard deviation means your outcomes swing widely, while a lower one points to steadier results📈.
By paying attention to all these numbers, you’ll get a clearer idea of what’s really happening under the surface. You’ll spot patterns, find where you can tighten up risk, and understand if you’re making money due to skill or just good luck. In short, these metrics help you trade with your eyes wide open, making it easier to improve over time.
Testing Candlestick Patterns on Real DataIn his fundamental book "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts," Thomas Bulkowski tested dozens of candlestick patterns using S&P market data. His research revealed that many well-known patterns perform quite differently from what conventional wisdom suggests.
In this video, I’ll show you how to conduct a similar analysis using your own data to determine whether those fancy "Hammers" and "Shooting Stars" actually give you an edge in trading.
HOW TO FIND 100X MEMECOIN???Hi i want to make this post as an educational content after 1 year from previous educational posts which i had.
i speak very usual that you can understand content well.
First you should consider this that maybe there are around 100 or 1000 or even 10000 Meme coins out there to be found.
But only 10 of them is valuable and can be next DOGE or SHIBA or PEPE or ....(comment below some valuable Meme which i didn't write).
1. First of all Meme should have a good story that after reeded buy audience they said i should buy some of this token for my children or my self long-term.
i will explain two good story for you as an example:
A. In May 2021, Shiba creator sent the rest to Ethereum co-founder Buterin, who burned 90% of them to increase their value and then donated the remaining 10%.
B. Or Doge Creator which started the token as a Joke and then Elon Mask supports over years.
conclusion: Meme coins are now for dreaming and need a good back story and people need to talk with each other about the funny story of it and boom 🚀.
so search for stories like these two examples or the other stories like we are loving dogs or cats so lets go and buy the meme token of it lol.
But that story wont work on every animal names so take care don't rush to every animal name token which usually are falling hard after some fake pump.
2. Second you need to find strong community now all meme coins have groups and chats before buying go join and see how they are preforming for month and then decide to invest.
3. Third check updates and ... which they had on their own token and see what are the future plans or listing and ....
4. Forth always check the major wallets of that Meme token here are some factors you should be afraid of it:
A. if the huge amount of token like 30% or 50% is in one wallet
B. if the huge amount of token like 70% or 80% is in the hand of one exchange: so it is usually a meme token created by that exchange and other exchange wont list it forever usually and also it created by that exchange with fake pump in green market days to sell you that token and one day it eventually fall hard i see in different exchanges deferent token like this with high fake volume on it but i can not name here and after 2-10 months they dump 70-80% fall and low volume and delisted.
conclusion: be afraid of tokens which huge amounts are in specific wallet because they are usually dangerous also remember they can easily create fake wallets and divide tokens to different wallets so best thing is to check major 20 wallets of that token and see if those wallets hold any other tokens and are really whales or it is fake wallets that all in that meme.
5. Fifth high liquidity: check the Meme token have high liquidity because one day soon or late you want to sell it.
Disclaimer: The content below this are not any more 100% Educational but it is another example i provide for better understanding.
This is the beginning of this 1300% pump we had on Luffyusdt:
why i open long on Luffyusdt meme?
i checked almost all of the things mentioned above.
the story was all right here we have first anime token since 2021 running and they make web3 site to bring anime lovers together and ....
i check the team behind that and i checked evert 0-25 main wallets of this token and see in that 25 wallets 10 of the was whale and 5 of them was exchanges and major wallet is Dead wallet which means they burn 45% of token until now.
this token soon would be 100X in my opinion because it has the potential.
this is my own view and it may be wrong because we are living in crypto market so do your own research always and jump check your major meme holding and hold only valuable one.
any questions or thoughts mentioned in the comments.
also Disclaimer : Trade based on your own experience and research and knowledge.
GANN TRADING LESSON - GANN BOX & TIME CYCLE 144GANN BOX & TIME CYCLE 144 are two pivotal tools introduced by W.D. Gann , a legendary figure in financial markets. These tools integrate time and price dynamics seamlessly, providing traders with revolutionary methods to analyze market movements.
Here, we’ll explore these tools and how traders can apply them to achieve greater precision and insight in their trading. Understanding the interplay between time and price is a cornerstone of effective trading.
What is Gann’s Box?
Gann’s Box is a synthetic coordinate system that enables traders to analyze price dynamics within structured time and price parameters. The box helps visualize patterns and understand the relationship between upward and downward movements over specific periods.
By using this tool, traders can:
Identify directional trends.
Recognize structural alternations of price movement.
Pinpoint significant turning points in the market.
Principles of the Gann Box
First Principle: Directional Price Movements
The Gann Box segments price movements into discrete directional sections. These sections reveal periods of trend continuation or reversal. By overlaying a box on the chart from a significant extremum, traders can observe how price respects its boundaries over time.
Second Principle: Structure of Movement
Markets alternate between upward and downward movements in a structured and often periodic manner. Gann’s Box allows traders to:
Detect these alternations.
Visualize corrections versus trend-directed movements.
Forecast future structural changes based on historical patterns.
Cycle 144: A Unique Trading Model
Gann’s Cycle 144 is an advanced application of the Gann Box. It involves a fixed time cycle of 144 units (e.g., hours, days, or any chosen timeframe) and is based on the following principles:
Begin at the Extremum: The cycle always starts at a key high or low.
End After 144 Units: The cycle concludes after 144 time units.
No Gaps Between Cycles: Models should seamlessly connect without gaps.
Overlapping Models: Multiple cycles can operate simultaneously, enhancing prediction accuracy within the same timeframe.
This model offers a comprehensive framework to predict market movements within defined intervals.
Practical Steps to Apply Gann’s Box
Identify Key Extremums
Locate significant highs or lows on your chart to serve as the starting points.
Construct the Gann Box
Use the chosen extremum to calculate the parameters of the box. Ensure alignment between price and time scales.
Analyze Trends and Corrections
Observe how price behaves within the box, identifying trend continuations, corrections, and potential reversals.
Incorporate Cycle 144
Overlay the Cycle 144 model to refine predictions, ensuring to account for overlapping cycles for greater precision.
Why Gann’s Box Matters for Traders
Gann’s Box is not just a tool but a framework for disciplined and informed trading. Here are its key benefits:
Accurate Forecasting: Pinpoint turning points with precision.
Structured Analysis: Analyze price action within a logical, visual framework.
Improved Decision-Making: Reduce emotional bias by relying on objective patterns.
Conclusion
Gann’s Box and Cycle 144 offer traders a methodical approach to deciphering market movements. By integrating TIME & PRICE , these tools simplify the complexities of trading while providing actionable insights.
As with any trading method, success lies in practice and observation. Study past market movements, experiment with Gann’s concepts, and refine your understanding. With dedication, these tools can transform your approach to trading and unlock new levels of mastery.
Best Lot Size for Scalping Forex For Any Account Size
In this article, I will teach you how to calculate the best fixed lot size for Scalping Forex for any account size in 3 simple steps.
1. Build Up a Trading Watch List
In order to accurately calculate a proper lot size for scalping Forex, you need to know the exact Forex pairs that you trade.
You should create a list of trading currency pairs.
For the sake of the example, imagine that you trade only 4 major USD pairs:
EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD
2. Do Backtesting
Backtest every forex pair in your watch list and find at least 5 trading setups on each pair based on the rules of your trading strategy.
Also, remember that the more setups you will find, the more accurately you will calculate the best lot size for your scalping strategy.
Here are 5 trading setups on EURUSD that meet my entry criteria.
After that, you should calculate a pips value of a stop loss of each trade.
Below, you can see 5 trading setups on GBPUSD pair.
And here are the stop losses of each trade in pips.
Now, USDCAD pair. Again, here are 5 trading setups, meeting the entry rules.
You can see the stop loss of each trade in pips below.
And finally, 5 setups on USDJPY pair.
And here are the stop losses of these trades.
Among these 20 trading setups, you should find the trade with the biggest stop loss.
The biggest stop loss is 15 pips on USDJPY pair.
3. Measure a Lot Size
Open Forex position size calculator.
You can take any free position size calculator that is available.
Fill all the fields.
In currency pair input, the forex pair with the biggest stop loss - USDJPY in our example.
Account currency - your account currency, let's take USD.
Account size - your account size, let's take 10000$.
Risk ratio - that will be the risk % of your trading account per trade, input 1.5%.
Stop Loss - input a pip value of the biggest stop loss that you found - 15 pips.
And click calculate.
That will be the best lot size for scalping Forex with your trading strategy.
The idea is that our maximum loss will not exceed 1.5% of the trading account balance.
While the average risk per trade will be around 1%.
Before you start scalping Forex on a real account, it is very important to know how to properly calculate your risks. Trading with the fixed lot, this technique will help you to calculate the best lot size for your trades.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
HOW TO INCREASE YOUR OVERALL WIN RATE BY 10%+
Hi again everyone As promised, once a week I'll be bringing simple yet comprehensive guides to improve your over all trading! Here's your next MAGNIFICENT gift! I wasn't gonna do this topic but based on what I have been seeing among a bunch of traders.....this is DEFINITELY NEEDED . As always i really appreciate the support and upvote if you like the weekly posts so far and want more! Let's get right into it!
1. Understand that above all else, market structure (MS) always always always reigns supreme. Not fundamentals. Not news. Not "financial instutions" (that one cracks me up), but MARKET STRUCTURE. All of the other things mentioned above play their ROLES in market structure, but they do not MAKE market structure.
P.S. Of course major red folders like FOMC, NFP, CPI, etc etc will affect it, but that does not change the facts of #1.
Zoom out to gain overall perspective and bias direction, Zoom in to get the details needed within that bias to start finding confluence and begin creating that entry situation to come.
2. DO NOT, and i do repeat, DO NOT get in the habit of changing your bias mid day or multiple times a day/week, UNLESS the market calls for it. (mainly through major points in structure being broken, but there are various ways to determine this with indicators amongst other things like candlestick structure and trendlines, fibs, and other tools.)
I see so many traders lose on a day they would CAKED on had they just stuck to their bias. Trusting in your bias is not only needed, but it is a super power and shows your conviction in your strategy.
3. Stop listening to randoms not just here, but on any platform, and develop YOUR OWN EDGE in the market based on your understanding..... OR..... find a extremely talented and trustworthy mentor to guide you. Regardless, good luck on your own if your ego does not allow you to learn. I trade far better than the vast majority of people and I remain in contact with my mentor so no excuses .
4. Master candlestick analysis. You know how I catch big moves in the market???? Well, its certainly not by ignoring candlestick analysis. Candlesticks will always tell you where breakouts will occur on lower timeframes, and they'll always tell you how wide the range of the market is as well as show you with the wicks which side is getting weaker, but on the higher timeframe.
reread that ^. Literally gave you guys my sauce to interpreting candlesticks on top of posting this for you guys.
5. Control your emotions, king,
6. Trail your stop loss after 25-30 pips gained, everytime. especially in the beginning, since the winners won't come as often, you need to capitalize on winning trades. Any trade that ends in NET positive profit is a winner. point, blank, period. Even if it hits your trailing stop loss, study it! Even if it hits your take profit, study it! Feedback leads to growth.... always.
7. Backtest, backtest, backtest. Make the $15 USD investment and study your edge. study study study notate and improve! innovate and grow!!!! Backtesting is where you test what you know, look your L's and W's in the face and make that committment to see more W's than L's.
HONESTLY, this should increase your win rate by 20% if you're already coming in with some experience. For the newer guys, you're welcome. your trading skill is about to skyrocket, if YOU decide to put that work in. I promise that god wants you to win, if you do!!! GOODLUCK Gs
How I Execute Trades Using Gann’s Square of 9Here in this example, I have used the Square of 9 method to predict a potential market reversal and executions. W.D. Gann, a legendary trader and analyst, is renowned for his pioneering techniques in financial markets.
Among his tools, the Square of 9 stands out as a remarkable system to predict market turning points with precision. In this blog, we’ll explore the fundamentals of the Square of 9, how it works, and how we can use it to improve timing and decision-making in the markets.
What is the Square of 9?
The Square of 9 is a spiral-based numerical grid where numbers are arranged in a square, starting from 1 at the center and spiraling outward. Each number on the grid has angular relationships with other numbers, which Gann believed could forecast significant market movements.
For instance:
Numbers at the same angles (e.g., 39, 67, 105, 150) share a relationship that can signify potential turning points in the market.
By marking these numbers and aligning them with trading days, we can identify key dates for potential price reversals.
Core Assumptions in Price Dynamics
Gann’s methods rely on two key assumptions:
Repetition in Price and Time: Price tends to follow specific patterns or laws over defined intervals of time.
Structured Alternation: The up-and-down movements of price are not random; they alternate in a structured, periodic manner.
These assumptions form the foundation for analyzing price action through tools like the Square of 9.
How to Use the Square of 9
Step 1: Identify Key Market Extremes
Begin by locating significant highs or lows on a price chart. These extremums act as the starting point for your calculations.
Step 2: Calculate Calendar Days
Count the number of calendar days between:
Two highs,
Two lows, or
A high and a low.
Step 3: Locate the Number on the Square of 9
Find the calculated number (e.g., 39) on the Square of 9. Then, mark other numbers that lie on the same angle or corner, such as 67, 105, or 150.
Step 4: Predict Turning Points
Mark these numbers as potential future dates. On these dates, observe the market closely for signs of reversals or continuations.
Practical Example
Now let's Analyse GOLD. In this example we will take a daily candle that is making an all time high. From that high we will count the very next extreme high or low. How many trading days it takes to reach that price point and make a reversal? - 40 Trading days.
Now we will look for the number 40 in Gann square of 9 table. and the very next probable execution or reversal we will get after 70 days according to the table.
We see sharp price movement after 70th day and then at 180th day where we can place our order and execute with other confirmations.
Benefits of Using the Square of 9
Enhanced Timing: Pinpoint potential reversal dates, helping traders refine entry and exit strategies.
Objective Forecasting: Use a structured approach to reduce emotional decision-making.
Improved Accuracy: Combine the Square of 9 with other technical tools for more reliable predictions.
Conclusion
The Square of 9 is a powerful tool for traders who seek to integrate time and price analysis into their strategies. By understanding its mechanics and applying its principles, you can anticipate market turns with greater confidence.
As with any trading tool, practice and observation are essential. Study past market movements using the Square of 9 to develop your intuition and skill. With dedication, you’ll unlock the potential of this fascinating method and take your trading to the next level.