The Trader’s Hero’s Journey: Becoming Your Own Trading LegendThe life of a trader often feels like a rollercoaster—full of challenges, triumphs, and personal growth.
As I read The Hero’s Journey by Joseph Campbell, it struck me that trading follows a similar arc to the mythical journey of a hero. It’s a path of discovery, trials, and transformation, where the ultimate prize isn’t just financial success but self-mastery."
Joseph Campbell’s The Hero’s Journey outlines a universal story arc where a hero ventures into the unknown, faces trials, and emerges transformed. When I reflect on my journey as a trader—and the journeys of many others I’ve met—I see clear parallels.
Trading is not just about profits or losses; it’s about the personal evolution that comes with navigating the markets. Let’s break it down.
1. The Call to Adventure
Every trader begins with a moment of inspiration: perhaps it’s seeing others succeed, hearing about financial freedom, or wanting to take control of their destiny. This is the call to adventure, where you step into the unknown world of trading.
Trading Insight: This initial excitement often leads to a steep learning curve. You dive into books, courses, and strategies, ready to conquer the markets. But as Campbell reminds us, the journey isn’t as simple as answering the call—it’s only the beginning.
2. Crossing the Threshold
The moment you place your first trade, you cross the threshold into the real world of trading. Here, the safety of learning gives way to the reality of risk, uncertainty, and the emotional rollercoaster that trading brings.
Trading Insight: This step is thrilling but also daunting. Many traders experience beginner’s luck, only to be hit by the harsh realities of losses and market unpredictability. It’s the first step into the unknown, where the real journey begins.
3. The Trials and Challenges
In The Hero’s Journey, the hero faces trials, tests, and challenges that push them to their limits. For traders, these trials come in the form of losses, emotional turmoil, and the constant temptation to deviate from their plans.
Trading Insight: Every trader faces these moments—revenge trading after a loss, abandoning a strategy, or letting fear and greed take over. These are the tests that separate those who persevere from those who give up. Each challenge is an opportunity to grow, learn, and refine your skills.
4. The Mentor
In every hero’s journey, a mentor appears to guide the hero through their trials. For traders, mentors can take many forms: books, courses, communities, or even market experiences themselves.
Trading Insight: A good mentor—or even the wisdom of past experiences—provides clarity during tough times. They help you stay disciplined, manage risk, and stick to your trading plan. Many traders find mentorship in unlikely places, like mistakes that teach them lessons they’ll never forget.
5. The Abyss (Dark Night of the Soul)
Every hero reaches a point of despair, where they’re tested to their breaking point. For traders, this might look like a string of losses, a blown account, or doubting whether they’re cut out for the markets at all.
Trading Insight: This is the hardest part of the journey. Many traders quit here, feeling overwhelmed and defeated. But those who persist, reflect, and adapt often emerge stronger and wiser. The abyss is not the end—it’s the turning point.
6. The Transformation
After surviving the abyss, the hero is transformed. For traders, this is the point where you develop emotional resilience, refine your strategies, and truly understand the importance of discipline and risk management.
Trading Insight: You begin to trust your process, stick to your plan, and let go of the need to control the market. This transformation doesn’t happen overnight, but when it does, you become a confident, consistent trader.
7. The Return with the Elixir
In the final stage of The Hero’s Journey, the hero returns to their world with the “elixir,” the wisdom and rewards gained from their trials. For traders, this could be consistent profitability, but more importantly, it’s the lessons learned and the personal growth achieved.
Trading Insight: You return not just as a trader but as someone who understands themselves better. The elixir isn’t just financial—it’s the knowledge that success comes from within, from mastering your emotions and staying disciplined.
Conclusion:
Trading is more than just buying and selling—it’s a hero’s journey. It’s a path of self-discovery, resilience, and transformation. As Campbell reminds us, the greatest reward isn’t the treasure at the end but the person you become along the way.
Whether you’re just starting out or have been trading for years, remember: every challenge you face is part of your journey. Embrace it. Learn from it. And like every hero, you’ll emerge stronger, wiser, and ready to conquer the markets—and yourself.
How is your journey going ?
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Thoughts About Elliott Wave: Why the 5 & 3 Model?According to Dow, there are two primary trends in the market, the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend.Both primary trends consist of three phases.
Phases of the Primary Uptrend
-Accumulation Phase
-Markup Phase
-Distribution Phase
Phases of the Primary Downtrend
-Distribution Phase
-Panic Phase
-Discouraged Selling Phase
Note that the distribution phase is common between the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend. The urgent question is:
Where does the distribution phase lie? In the primary
uptrend or in the primary downtrend?
The answer is that this stage occurs during the final stage of the bullish trend. Although the selling (the downtrend) has actually started, it does not appear on the chart that shows the continuation of the bullish trend, as the selling is done in a hidden way, where smart sellers who notice the greedy buying rush from all traders in the market, whether professional or nonprofessional, who heard from the specialized and nonspecialized media about the uninterrupted staggering profits of the stock market.
At this phase, all or the vast majority of investors, traders, and fund managers become buyers, either with what they own or in managing money, in addition to margin, in order
to catch up or increase profits that continue for a long time. No one believes that it will be cut off or stopped.
For sellers to distribute the largest amount of their shares they own, they maintain the upward trend in front of market participants to maintain buyers' hopes. Only a few professionals who are not under the psychological pressure of excessive optimism take note of this sales process. They notice the selling and the start of the real bearish trend (which is not visible on the chart) through negative divergences, whether in volumes or with momentum indicators and market breadth. Rising wedge is the best formation and reflects the distribution phase. At times it is formed in the whole distribution phase or in the last part of it.
IFTAUPDATE 2022 Volume 29 Issue 1
By El- Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis
Introduction:
This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis.
We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns.
Rant
We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions.
Preface
Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding.
This analysis incorporates:
• Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1)
• Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2)
• Support & Resistance Levels (Blended)
Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal
Silver Price Peak
Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle.
Reversal Peak
Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline.
Downtrend Sequence
Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows:
1. Swing Low
2. Lower High
3. Lower Low
4. Lower High
5. Lower Low
Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes
Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure.
Potential Reversal
Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point.
At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame.
In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 3Question: I'm having a problem with finding the MC candle. What should I do?
Answer:
There are 3 distinct signs for us to know for a fact that we are in a ranging market which has been started from shaping an MC candle:
1. Inability for the price to make a new stBoS (seeing wBoS or no BoS at all).
2. For the second time, seeing a cycle of Pump&Dump happening.
3. Price cross and close both EMAs in the opposite direction of the previous minor trend.
Whenever we observe any of these three signs, it indicates that we are already in a ranging market. We should look to the left to identify our MC candle, which is usually the very first Pump & Dump that occurred recently.
For Ethereum to continue its uptrend, the Pump & Dump cycle must end. The price should not drop again in the ranging area.
Profitable Support and Resistance Strategy for Trading Forex
This support and resistance strategy works on any forex pair and gold.
It is simple and profitable and it is the best trading strategy for beginners.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for trading this strategy. You will learn entry rules and important theory.
First and foremost, in order to profitably trade support and resistance levels, you need to know how to identify them. You should know how to distinguish a significant structure level.
I believe that you should look for a strong support or resistance strictly on a daily time frame.
That structure should be historically significant.
It means that it should be respected by the market at least 2 times, with a strong and clear reaction to that.
Here is the example of a key support on EURUSD.
The underlined key level was respected as the resistance, first,
then, after a breakout, it turned into support and a strong bullish reaction followed.
Above, you can see a perfect horizontal resistance level that was respected 2 time in a row in the recent past.
Support and resistance levels that I showed you are truly significant.
But, trading more than 9 years, I realized that the historic reaction of the market to a key level is not enough to make it reliable.
I found one more important condition that strengthen a key level - a market trend.
We will trade only supports that align with the market trend, meaning that we buy from such a support, if only the market is trading in a bullish trend.
In the example above, NZDUSD is trading in a clear bullish trend on a daily. If we buy the market from the underlined support level, we will take a trend-following trade.
That will be the best support level for buying the market from.
We will trade only the resistances that align with the market trend.
It means that we will sell from the resistance, only if the market is trading in a bearish trend.
Look at AUDUSD on a daily. The pair is trading in a bearish trend.
The resistance that I underlined will be valid for selling from, because shoring from that, we will trade with the trend.
Please, realize that if you sell the market that is in an uptrend from a resistance level, you will go AGAINST the trend. The probabilities of winning such a trade will always be lower.
You can see the EURNZD went through a resistance level, completely neglecting that, because the market trend was bullish.
Buying a key support in a bearish trend, we will take a trade against the trend. Such trades always have lower accuracy.
A key support on EURCAD was easily broken because the market was trading in a bearish trend.
Now, let's discuss th e entry point, stop loss placement and target selection.
Once you identified a key resistance in a bearish trend, set a sell limit order on that.
On EURGBP, the market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
We see a significant resistance that meets our criteria.
We should set a sell limit order on that.
Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR.
I simply take the default ATR settings with 14 Length.
In our example, ATR is 27 pips.
Our stop loss for the trade will be 14 pips above the entry level.
Take profit for the trade will be the closest support.
Here is the closest support that I spotted on EURGBP. It will be our TP level.
You can see that the market perfectly reached the target.
Once you identified a key support in a bullish trend, set a buy limit order on that.
I see a perfect daily key support on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong uptrend.
A buy limit order should be set on that level.
Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR.
ATR is 139 pips.
Our stop loss will be 70 pips.
Take Profit will be the closest daily resistance.
311 pips of profit were made.
Market trend is always your friend .
The rule to trade support and resistance levels only in the side of the trend is very simple, but many newbie trades neglect that, and lose a lot of money.
Try this support and resistance strategy, back test it on different forex pairs and let me know your results.
Thanks for reading!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD USDCAD AUDUSD | 26/11/2024Yesterday served as a classic example of the importance of risk management in every trader's system. We initiated three trades across three different currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) and plan to provide a detailed breakdown of each trade, including the outcomes.
We began scouting for potential setups that matched our entry criteria at 10:00 EST. By 10:30 EST, a FVG had developed on GBPUSD, indicating potential selling opportunities during this trading session. All that remained was to wait for a retracement into the created FVG to secure an entry point for the trade
The subsequent five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on GBPUSD, indicating that we could execute our trade upon its closure. Simultaneously, we were exploring additional trading opportunities across various currency pairs. It was then that we observed the emergence of a FVG on USDCAD, necessitating a wait for a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade. We executed the trade on GBPUSD while awaiting confirmation to enter the USDCAD position.
The USDCAD setup provided an entry confirmation, indicating that we would have two trades active during this session. Additionally, the session was still ongoing when we observed that another EURUSD setup was approaching the fulfillment of our entry criteria.
Immediately after initiating the trades on GBPUSD and USDCAD, we observed a significant drawdown on both. This was due to a large bearish marubozu candle printing on the USDCAD, while the GBPUSD experienced two successive bullish candles, casting both positions in an unfavorable light. While all this was happening the setup on EURUSD had fulfilled all the requirements on our checklist so we had to execute that trade as well.
Our USDCAD position hit the stop loss, and shortly after, our GBPUSD position also reached the stop loss, resulting in a 2% reduction of our trading account for the day. This leaves us with just one active position on EURUSD.
Being in such a position wouldn't be easy to bare if we hadn't managed risk properly. We entered these trades risking only 1% per trade and had already accepted the potential outcomes, which greatly diminished any emotional attachment to these trades. With that in mind, the EURUSD position began moving in our desired direction, which was a considerable relief after two out of three trades had reached the stop-loss point
We patiently waited, and this time our patience paid off when our EURUSD position hit the take profit (TP) for a 2% gain. Thus, for the day, we experienced two losses and a win, but with effective risk management, our win offset both losses, and we broke even for the day. Do you see the importance of ensuring your wins outweigh your losses? We experienced just one win and two losses, yet our single win was more significant that it offset all the losses we had for the day
Using Bollinger Bands to Gauge Market Trends and Volatility The US Thanksgiving holiday usually marks a quieter period for trading, as US financial markets are closed on Thursday and US traders often take the Friday off as a holiday to benefit from a long weekend. This can see both lower volume and volatility, so we thought we’d take this time to outline one of our favourite technical indicators, called Bollinger Bands.
The aim is to increase your knowledge of a new indicator you may consider worth knowing, ahead of the first week of December, which is packed full of important events that may kick start markets moving again into the end of 2024.
We intend to highlight how Bollinger Bands can potentially be applied to help read both current trending and volatility conditions for any asset.
To help with this, we are using the US 500 index as an example to outline the type of band set-ups you can consider using within your day-to-day analysis and trading.
What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger bands are made of 3 lines – the mid-average, upper and lower band (see chart above).
The mid-average is a 20 period moving average, with the upper and lower bands calculated using 2 standard deviations either side of the mid-average.
If you are unsure of the concept or how to calculate 2 standard deviations, please don’t worry, the Pepperstone charting system will do this automatically for you and add them to the chart of any asset you may wish to analyse.
The mid-average is used to reflect the direction of the on-going trending condition of a market. If its rising, an uptrend is in place, while if it’s falling, a downtrend is evident.
How the bands act in relation to the mid-average is key when using Bollinger bands. They can often offer important confirmation of the trend and can show if acceleration phases in the price of a particular asset may be seen within that trend.
The most important thing to know about Bollinger bands is that they react to increasing volatility within price. Periods of increasing volatility see both bands widening away from the mid-average, while if volatility is decreasing, they contract or draw closer to the mid-average.
Let’s look at this further.
What Set-Ups are We Looking For and What Do They Mean?
There are 5 set-ups to be aware of when using Bollinger bands and each offer clues to the next activity in the price of a particular asset.
1st: Volatility Increasing Within a Confirmed Trend:
When the mid-average is either rising (to highlight an uptrend) or falling (to reflect a downtrend), and the bands are widening to show increasing volatility within that trend, alongside the upper band being touched in an uptrend, or within a downtrend, the lower band being touched.
When all the above conditions are evident, the potential is for that move to extend further than perhaps anticipated.
On the US 500 Index chart above, the green arrows mark when these more aggressive trending conditions are in place.
2nd: Volatility Decreasing Within a Confirmed Trend:
Where the mid-average is either rising (uptrend) or falling (downtrend), and the bands are contracting reflecting decreasing volatility within that trend.
When these set-ups are in place, the speed of the recent directional move is slowing, and the possibilities are increasing for a consolidation in price.
During this period, we may want to consider reducing or closing positions and reverting to the side lines, as a setback could materialise, as a reaction to the latest move.
On the chart above, red arrows mark these consolidation periods.
3rd: Mid-Average Support/Resistance Holds Within Corrective Moves:
Within these corrective or recovery phases after periods of increasing volatility and widening bands, we must watch how the mid-average support or resistance is defended.
If the mid-average is rising, highlighting an uptrend and holding price weakness, it may resume the direction of the original trend. Similarly, when the mid-average is falling, highlighting a downtrend and holding price strength, it may continue in the same direction. However, past trends and technical indicators are not reliable predictors of future performance, and market conditions can change unexpectedly.
On the new chart above, these points are marked by the blue vertical arrows.
4th: Trend Channels Form Between Mid-Average and Upper/Lower Band:
When the rising mid-average holds as suggested in the third set-up above, this can see uptrend or downtrend channels form in price.
In an uptrend, the rising mid-average holds price weakness and turns it higher.
While this still sees price strength, volatility doesn’t increase but remains steady, reflected by rising parallel bands and support continues to be found by the rising mid-average.
However, resistance materialises following tests of the upper band, for a setback towards the support of the still rising mid-average.
This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks below the support offered by the rising mid-average.
On the latest chart above, this is marked by the purple arrows.
When the declining mid-average holds price strength, as suggested in the 3rd set-up above, this can see a downtrend channel form in price.
In a downtrend, the declining mid-average holds price strength and turns it back lower.
While this scenario still sees price weakness, volatility remains steady and doesn’t increase, reflected by the declining bands being parallel, and resistance continues to be found by the falling mid-average.
However, tests of the lower band see support materialise and a rally in price ensues towards resistance marked by the still falling mid-average.
This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks above resistance offered by the falling mid-average.
This situation is the opposite of the chart above.
5th: Mid-Average Broken to See More Extended Rally/Sell-Off:
Mid-average support or resistance gives way, but while price weakness or strength develops, the direction of the average doesn’t change.
This sees a limited move in the direction of the mid-average break.
During price weakness, if the mid-average continues to rise, the lower band can act as a support level and prompt a rally.
During price strength, if the mid-average continues to fall, the upper band acts as a resistance level from which price weakness can emerge again.
These signals are marked by the green rectangles in the chart above.
It is important to note in this example, if an upper or lower bands is touched and then both bands start to widen alongside the mid-average changing direction, then this is highlighting the 1st set up described above, meaning we are observing increasing volatility within what is a new trending condition.
In this situation, we may need to consider adjusting our trading strategy to reflect this new directional shift in price.
Conclusion:
While past signals within Bollinger Bands are not a guarantee of future signals, by utilising the set-ups described above, they may offer an indication of the latest trending conditions in the price of a particular asset.
More importantly, they help to highlight when increasing volatility is materialising and when more sustained price moves are possibly on the cards, in the direction of the on-going trend.
Also, they show when decreasing volatility can result in a period of consolidation and a reaction to the recent move due.
Take a look at the Pepperstone charting system and consider whether Bollinger Bands may help you establish the next directional moves for the asset you’re trading.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
How TradingView Helps Me Not Miss TradesHey,
In this video I provide several examples that help me to not miss any trading opportunities and provide me more clarity and confidence in my trading. I share my trading style, the usage of tradingview alerts and multi-timeframe analysis to time it right.
Often traders struggle with missing trades, this is why you might miss them:
- Lack of confidence
- Lack of chart time
- Lack of knowledge
If you solve them one by one, your trading performance can improve fast.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
DECEMBER ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTHello everyone,
We’re excited to announce that the ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTS for December 2024 are officially open!
Submission Deadline: December 1st, 2024.
To maintain precision and efficiency in our analysis, we ask each member to submit only one (1) Altcoin request.
Guidelines for Submissions:
Use proper formats like ETHBTC, ETHUSDT, or ETHUSD.
Include the exchange name where the coin is listed.
Please note: We’ll be analyzing a maximum of 30 Altcoins based on the requests we receive.
Let’s work together to identify market opportunities and make informed decisions.
For reference, check out the links to our prior analysis sessions:
#January:
#February:
#March
#April
#May
#June
#July
#August
#September
#October
#November
We deeply value your ongoing support—please take a moment to review past analyses, share your thoughts, and hit the like button to show your appreciation!
Thank you all for being part of this journey. Rest assured, we’re committed to delivering top-quality insights every time.
Best regards,
WESLAD
How to recover after a losing streakEven the most seasoned traders—those with decades of experience—encounter losing streaks. These periods can feel discouraging and lead to emotional turbulence that affects decision-making. However, with the right psychological tools, strategies, and perspective, you can regain confidence and emerge stronger. Here’s a comprehensive guide to help you navigate this challenging but normal phase of trading.
Psychological Strategies for Regaining Confidence
Acknowledge and Accept Losses
Losing is part of the trading process. Shifting your mindset to view losses as an inevitable part of a long-term strategy can alleviate emotional distress. Experienced traders understand that no strategy guarantees constant wins, and a losing streak doesn’t necessarily mean the strategy is broken.
Step Back and Reassess
When emotions run high after a streak of losses, taking a break is crucial. This pause helps clear your mind, prevent revenge trading, and allows for a fresh perspective. Activities like walking, meditating, or engaging in hobbies can reset your mindset.
Reframe Losses as Learning Opportunities
Use each loss as a tool for growth. Analyze what went wrong—was it the market conditions, your strategy, or emotional decisions? This practice not only helps refine your approach but also rebuilds your confidence through proactive learning.
Visualize Success and Practice Mindfulness
Visualization and mindfulness techniques can help reset your emotional responses to losses. For instance, imagine handling losses calmly or achieving small trading wins. These exercises reprogram your brain to maintain composure under stress.
Reconnect with Your Trading Plan
Revisit your trading strategy to ensure it aligns with your goals and market conditions. A solid, well-tested plan provides psychological assurance and reduces impulsivity during challenging times.
Practical and Tactical Adjustments
Analyze Your Trading Journal
A detailed trading journal is invaluable. It helps you identify patterns in your decisions and pinpoint areas for improvement. For example, are you losing because of emotional entries or overly aggressive position sizes? Journaling fosters accountability and structured recovery.
Trade Smaller Positions
During a losing streak, reduce the size of your trades. Smaller stakes lower emotional pressure and give you room to rebuild confidence through minor wins. A series of small successes can gradually restore your self-belief.
Refine Risk Management
Effective risk management is a cornerstone of consistent trading. Stick to a risk-per-trade limit (commonly 1–2% of your portfolio) and set clear stop-loss orders. These practices minimize damage during downturns and maintain a manageable equity curve.
Adjust Expectations
Recognize that trading success is about probabilities over a series of trades, not individual outcomes. This perspective helps alleviate the emotional weight of single losses and reinforces a focus on long-term performance.
Seek Community Support
Trading can feel isolating, especially during tough times. Engage with mentors, join trading groups, or connect with peers who’ve experienced similar challenges. Sharing experiences can provide valuable insights and emotional support.
The Bigger Picture: Confidence is a Process
Recovering confidence isn’t about eliminating losses; it’s about cultivating resilience. By focusing on disciplined practices, psychological fortitude, and incremental adjustments, you’ll find yourself not only recovering but improving as a trader. Remember, even after 20 years in the markets, encountering losing streaks is part of the journey. What sets successful traders apart is their ability to handle setbacks with composure, adaptability, and a commitment to growth.
What Is a BTST Strategy, and How Does One Trade It?What Is a BTST Strategy, and How Does One Trade It?
BTST (Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow) is a popular short-term trading strategy where traders buy shares one day and sell them the next to capitalise on overnight price movements. This article delves into the mechanics of BTST, its advantages and risks, and practical steps for implementing this strategy effectively.
Understanding the BTST Trading Strategy
BTST, or Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow, is a short-term stock trading strategy where traders buy shares one day and sell them the next day before the settlement process is completed. Unlike traditional trades that settle in T+2 (trade date plus two days), BTST allows traders to capitalise on overnight price movements without waiting for full settlement.
The BTST strategy is particularly appealing in volatile markets where stock prices can experience significant changes overnight due to news, earnings reports, or other market-moving events. By leveraging these quick price movements, traders aim to maximise potential short-term gains.
A key feature of BTST is that it requires a keen understanding of market trends and the ability to swiftly act on relevant news and technical indicators. Effective BTST trading often involves analysing factors such as trading volumes, price momentum, and market sentiment.
However, BTST also carries risks, including the possibility of adverse price movements overnight and higher transaction costs due to frequent trading. Effective risk management strategies are essential to mitigate these risks.
How BTST Works
BTST allows traders to buy shares and sell them the next day before the trade settlement is complete. In typical stock trading, the settlement period is T+2 (trade date plus two days). However, this will change to T+1 for US stocks starting May 28, 2024. Despite this reduction, BTST remains distinct because it enables the sale of shares before they are credited to the trader's brokerage account.
Mechanically, BTST trades operate as follows: on the first day (T), a trader purchases shares. These shares are recorded as a transaction, but the actual transfer of shares does not occur until the settlement date. In BTST, the trader sells these shares the next day (T+1), leveraging the opportunity to capitalise on overnight price movements without waiting for the shares to be formally deposited into their account.
This strategy is typically facilitated through certain investment accounts, such as those that offer Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow for trading based on the price movement of assets without owning them.
The typical BTST timeline involves:
- Day 1 (T): The trader identifies a potential opportunity and buys shares.
- Day 2 (T+1): The trader sells the shares, capitalising on overnight market movements.
- Settlement: Despite the T+1 sale, the trade settles as per the standard settlement period (T+2 in many markets, shifting to T+1 for US stocks).
Advantages of BTST Trading
BTST trading offers several advantages for traders seeking to capitalise on short-term market movements:
- Leverage Overnight Price Movements: BTST allows traders to take advantage of overnight news, earnings reports, and market developments that can lead to significant price changes by the next trading day.
- Flexibility: BTST provides flexibility by allowing traders to respond quickly to market conditions without the need for long-term commitments.
- Quick Returns: By buying today and selling tomorrow, traders can potentially achieve quick returns, maximising the advantages of short-term price fluctuations.
- Minimises Holding Risk: With a short holding period, BTST minimises exposure to long-term market risks, focusing only on immediate price movements.
- Effective Use of Capital: Traders can effectively use their capital for quick turnover, allowing for multiple trades in a short period and optimising capital utilisation.
Risks Involved in BTST Trading
While potentially lucrative, BTST trading carries several risks that traders must be aware of to navigate effectively. Here are the key risks:
- Overnight Market Risk: BTST traders are exposed to overnight market volatility. Although this strategy is more efficient in times of significant market volatility, adverse price movements triggered by global events, economic reports, or company-specific news bear risks for traders.
- Short Delivery Risk: If the initial seller fails to deliver the purchased shares, traders may face penalties or forced buy-ins, which can lead to unexpected losses and increased costs. You can avoid the short delivery risk if you trade contracts for difference (CFDs), which are used to trade shares without actually owning them.
- Liquidity Risk: Trading in less liquid stocks can increase the risk of short delivery and difficulty in exiting positions at desired prices, potentially leading to significant losses.
- Higher Transaction Costs: Frequent buying and selling incur higher transaction costs, including brokerage fees and taxes, which can erode potential returns.
- No Margin: BTST trades generally do not offer margin, requiring traders to have the full amount for purchases upfront, which can limit trading flexibility and increase capital requirements. However, if you trade shares via CFDs, you can use margin.
Factors to Consider When Choosing BTST Stocks
Selecting the right stocks for BTST trading is crucial for maximising potential returns and potentially minimising risks. Traders often consider several factors when choosing stocks for this short-term strategy.
Liquidity
Highly liquid stocks are typically preferred for BTST trading. These stocks have high trading volumes, which facilitates potentially easier entry and exit from positions. Liquid stocks might reduce the risk of short delivery and price manipulation.
Volatility
Stocks with moderate to high volatility may offer potentially better opportunities for price movement within a short period. Traders often analyse historical price fluctuations and current market conditions to identify stocks with the potential for significant overnight price changes.
Market News and Events
Staying updated with market news and events is vital. Stocks affected by upcoming earnings reports, corporate announcements, or significant economic data releases are often selected for BTST trades. These events can drive substantial overnight price movements.
Technical Indicators
Technical analysis plays a crucial role in BTST stock selection. Traders frequently use indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands to identify potential breakout stocks. Patterns like gaps and candlestick formations also provide valuable insights.
Sector Performance
Monitoring sector performance can help identify strong or weak areas of the market. Traders often focus on sectors showing robust performance or those expected to react significantly to upcoming news, as sector trends can influence individual stock movements.
Historical Performance
Examining a stock's past performance, especially its reaction to similar market conditions or events, can provide clues about its future behaviour. Stocks with a history of significant overnight movements might be better suited for BTST strategies.
Using the BTST Strategy in Practice
The BTST strategy involves identifying and acting on short-term price movements. Traders need to focus on specific practical aspects of this approach.
Looking for a Catalyst
Traders typically look for catalysts that can drive overnight price movements. Earnings reports, significant corporate announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical events are common catalysts. Stocks influenced by these factors often exhibit significant volatility, creating opportunities for BTST trades.
Looking for Stocks with Momentum
Momentum is crucial in BTST trading. Stocks with strong momentum are more likely to continue their trend into the next trading day. Traders often analyse recent price movements, volume spikes, and technical indicators to identify stocks with upward or downward momentum. Stocks showing consistent buying or selling pressure are prime candidates for BTST trades. Traders can uncover momentum stocks in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
When to Buy and Sell
Timing is key in BTST trading. It's common to buy stocks towards the end of the trading day, as this allows traders to capitalise on any late-day price movements and position themselves for potential overnight gains. Selling typically occurs at the start of the next trading day, taking advantage of early morning price reactions to overnight news or events. This approach helps maximise potential returns from short-term price movements.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is essential in BTST trading. When trading via CFDs, setting a stop loss helps limit potential losses if the stock price moves against expectations overnight. Traders often set stop-loss levels based on technical support levels or a fixed percentage of the investment. Additionally, having clear rules for taking profits is crucial. This might involve setting a target price or a trailing stop to lock in gains as the stock price rises.
The Bottom Line
BTST trading offers opportunities for potential short-term gains by leveraging overnight price movements. While it comes with certain risks, effective strategies and risk management can make it a valuable addition to a trader's toolkit. For those interested in exploring BTST trading, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of these short-term opportunities in CFD markets.
FAQs
What Is BTST Trading?
The BTST meaning in trading refers to Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow, a strategy where traders purchase shares one day and sell them the next before settlement. This exploits overnight price movements without waiting for full settlement.
What Is BTST Strategy?
The BTST strategy involves buying stocks expected to rise the next day, taking advantage of overnight market developments.
What Is BTST in the Share Market?
In the share market, BTST allows traders to sell shares they bought before they are credited to their brokerage account.
How to Identify BTST Stocks?
Traders often identify BTST stocks by looking for catalysts like earnings reports, strong momentum, and significant market news. Technical analysis and monitoring market trends are key methods.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator
INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY!
Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations.
Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios:
Bullish Breakout Example:
Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000.
If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside.
The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals.
Bearish Breakout Example:
Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000.
If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside.
The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals.
LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
A Risk Tolerance Test for All TradersRisk Tolerance trips up more traders than any other emotional aspect of trading stocks, or any other asset class. How is your risk tolerance? Would you say that you have a good stable risk tolerance? Or is it the main reason you take small gains or losses?
If you need help evaluating your risk tolerance, take this Risk Tolerance Test . If any of these apply, then there is a problem you need to address:
Do you get stopped out of trades and then watch as the stock moves up? This is caused by setting stops too tightly for the kind of trading style being used.
Do you panic as the stock retraces and lower the stop loss to avoid getting stopped out? This actually increases risk rather than lowering it.
Do you raise your stop loss before the stock forms a new consolidation for support? This also increases risk rather than lessening it. There is higher risk that you will get stopped out prematurely.
Do you check profit or loss everyday on your held stocks? Position traders should only be checking their balance once a month. Swing traders could wait for the end of the month but can do it weekly.
Are you a swing trader who checks your positions intraday to see what is happening? This runs the risk of reacting prematurely to intraday volatility that eventually evens out.
Have you given up on using stop losses because "they don't work"? You probably just need to learn a better method for placing stop losses.
Do you hold and hold with no stop loss, watching a stock tumble, unable to exit and ultimately exiting too late or "holding long term" instead? This is a chronic problem among retail traders that indicates the lack of a complete trading plan, one that provides a plan for when your holdings go against your intent.
To keep your risk tolerance in check try adding these simple steps to your trade analysis:
Carefully check the Risk to Reward ratio of your picks, and only trade stocks with a good probability for profit vs. loss.
Consider the amount of money at risk in each trade. Think about how you would feel if you lost that money should the trade go against you. Add this parameter to your trading rules.
Lower overall market risk by trading more than one or two stocks at a time. Spread your capital outlay over a few picks rather than putting it all on one trade.
Use stop losses on every trade. Place stops under the appropriate support levels for the chart patterns and your intent.
If you are a Swing Trader, it is important to enter trades only on strong market days. Not every flat day is a good day to swing trade. You'll keep more of your profits over time if you wait for ideal days and picks.
The simplest way to improve risk tolerance is to continually paper trade on a Simulator even after you've started trading live. Most beginners do not practice executing their trading plan sufficiently before jumping into the market. They allow emotion to cloud better judgment and let greed overwhelm decisions. Trading is the only business where normally calm, intelligent, and wise people do really greedy things that end up being foolish and risky. And it all comes down to the emotions that come with money, especially fear, greed and pride.
Traders have one thing to compete against and that is their own emotions, which can cause poor decisions. My best advice for all traders is this: compete against your own prior trading history to improve results, and ignore what is going on with everyone else.
Summary:
Emotional control comes from having a sound plan, sticking with it, and not changing it because the market has moved on a whim or some guy on social just made a lot of money. Create your trading style, which is a plan of attack for the market. Set out your strategies and use the correct ones for the current Market Condition. Only trade stocks that have a risk factor you can live with. Use stop losses appropriately, and you will be successful. Problems occur somewhere in all of this, when traders miss a step and deviate from the plan.
When you feel emotions getting out of hand, controlling your trading decisions, consider the above checklists for help evaluating and adjusting your mindset. Greed is a tough emotion to control, because it is insidious and hard to identify in ourselves. Fear is easy to identify and much easier to control or harness. A certain amount of fear is necessary and good in the market, because it keeps individuals from taking too much risk. However, fear that dominates daily emotional energy only creates constant losses. Think about this and study prior trades. If they performed well after being stopped out, then there is a risk problem to address in your trading plan.
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 2This is how we see the market. Only in three places can we see a minor trend. All in between is just price consolidation because it is a ranging market. And we expect it to happen after spotting candle "X"! For more information, please refer to Part One .
When we spot a Master Candle (MC), We expect erratic behaviour from the price. Look at the white arrows to grasp what I mean by this. This is normal for us in ARZ Trading System analyses!
In fact, in a ranging market, we are looking for the price to behave like this to combine it with BB and hunt the best reversal trading positions.
If the price managed to stay above LTP & EMAs, we expect this pump and dump cycle to continue in the range area.
How to Spot Crypto Gems & Sleeping Giants Before Their Big PumpEveryone wants to be the genius who snagged Bitcoin BTCUSD at $1 or scooped up Ethereum ETHUSD when it was cheaper than your morning latte. Spotting a crypto gem before it rockets to the moon is the holy grail of digital asset trading, a pursuit that blends Sherlock Holmes-level detective work with a pinch of gambling spirit.
Before you dive into the crypto rabbit hole armed with little more than Twitter/X tips and Reddit whispers, let’s talk strategy. Because while you might get lucky chasing the next moonshot, a structured approach will give you far better odds. Let’s break it down 🤸♂️.
What Exactly Is a “Crypto Gem”?
First, let’s define the term. A crypto gem (or a sleeping giant) is not just any token with a buzz around it or an active Telegram group with “early adopters.” In a nutshell, it’s a project with solid fundamentals, a strong community and the potential to deliver real-world utility or disrupt an existing market. Think of it as a startup stock with global access, high risk and the potential for astronomical returns—assuming it doesn’t implode under its own hype.
Spotting one in the vast sea of cryptocurrencies requires more than just coffee-fueled optimism and good vibes. You’ll need a keen eye, a skeptical mindset and the ability to tune out the noise of endless shilling.
Step One: Research the Team Behind the Token
When it comes to crypto, the team is almost everything. This isn’t just about having developers with LinkedIn profiles full of buzzwords; it’s about real-world credibility.
Are they public and transparent? Anonymous developers might sound edgy, but they’re also a flight risk. Google “rug pull” if you need a refresher on why trust matters.
Do they have experience in blockchain, fintech or relevant fields? A team with Silicon Valley cred or a history of building successful projects in tech (or even better—Big Tech) is a big green flag.
Are there notable backers? Big-shot venture capital firms like a16z lend credibility. That said, even legends like Sequoia Capital got burned by FTX, so don’t let big names be your only criteria.
Step Two: The Whitepaper—Your Cheat Sheet
Think of the whitepaper as the project’s pitch deck, manifesto and homework assignment rolled into one. A good whitepaper will answer three critical questions and a great one won’t let you fall asleep before you finish it:
What problem is the project solving? No one needs another tokenized version of something that already exists. Look for innovation, not replication.
How does the technology work? You don’t have to be a blockchain engineer, but if the tech sounds like sci-fi or is overly vague, it might be all smoke and no fire.
What’s the roadmap? This is big—promises of “future features” without timelines or specifics are red flags. A realistic, actionable plan is what you want.
Pro tip: If the whitepaper reads like it was run through Google Translate three times, run. Or if it reads dry, dull and plain boring, it might’ve been churned out by none other than OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT. In this case, also run.
Step Three: Community and Hype—The Double-Edged Sword
The crypto community is both its greatest strength and its Achilles’ heel. A strong, engaged community can help drive adoption but blind hype can also inflate worthless projects.
Check social media channels. Look at the size and engagement of the community. Thousands of followers mean nothing if they’re all bots.
Beware of echo chambers. If every post is a variation of “TO THE MOON 🚀,” you’re probably dealing with a FOMO factory rather than a serious project.
Gauge the vibe. Are people discussing real use cases, or is it all price speculation? Thoughtful discussions are a green flag.
Step Four: Tokenomics—Follow the Money
Tokenomics is the economic blueprint of a cryptocurrency. It answers key questions about supply, demand and utility and helps you understand where the crypto belongs. Is it memecoin or a DeFi token ? Or maybe something else ?
What’s the total supply? A limited supply can create scarcity (à la Bitcoin), but infinite supply tokens often struggle to maintain value.
What’s the circulating supply? Tokens locked up in vesting schedules or owned by the team can flood the market later, tanking the price.
How is the token used? If the token has no clear utility, it’s just Monopoly money with better branding.
Bonus points for projects that have thought about deflationary mechanisms, staking rewards, or other incentives for holding the token long-term.
Step Five: Partnerships and Real-World Applications
You know what’s better than promises? Receipts. Partnerships with established companies, platforms, or organizations lend credibility and show that the project is more than just a good idea on paper.
Is the project solving real problems? A blockchain that speeds up supply chain logistics or enables decentralized finance for underserved communities has a tangible use case.
Are there active collaborations? Look for integration with existing platforms, APIs, or other cryptocurrencies.
Do the partnerships drive adoption? True partnerships should go beyond brand association and actively expand the project’s user base, utility, or reach.
The Red Flags You Can’t Ignore
Now that you know what to look for, let’s talk about what to avoid. Some warning signs are so obvious they might as well be written in neon:
Overpromising. Claims of “guaranteed profits” or “the next Bitcoin” are the crypto equivalent of snake oil.
Poor transparency. If the team, roadmap or financials are vague, think twice before you make your move.
Lack of progress. If a project has been “in development” for years with nothing to show, you’re most likely looking at vaporware.
The Role of Timing
Spotting a gem isn’t just about finding a good project—it’s about finding it at the right time, before the pack. Ideally, you want to enter before the masses catch on but after the project has proven its viability. Pre-launch phases and early adoption stages often offer the best opportunities.
To borrow a quote from hedge fund boss David Tepper: “I am the animal at the head of the pack. I either get eaten or I get the good grass.”
That said, even if you manage to find that one true gem, it might take years for its potential to unfurl and take you to the moon. On another note, something fundamental might go wrong along the way—the project might change course and abandon its original mission, vision and goals.
Wrapping It All Up
Spotting a crypto gem before it hits the moon is hard work. And it mostly comes down to hours and hours of preparation, research and analysis before you hit the exchange and grab the coin.
Also, not every gem will be a 100x moonshot, and that’s okay. Just make sure you set your priorities straight and align your expectations to the most volatile market out there.
So, what’s your crypto gem you wanna tell us about? Or you’re still looking for it? Share your thoughts and tips in the comments—let’s uncover the next moonshot together!
US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction
The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions.
◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities
● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities.
● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns.
● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices.
◉ Corporate Financing Costs
● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies.
● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations.
● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively.
◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics
● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship.
● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns.
● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500.
◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations
● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth.
● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings.
● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds.
◉ Historical Context and Trends
● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows.
● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth.
● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives.
◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields
● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields.
● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds.
● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities.
◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis
The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously.
This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of:
● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth.
● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity.
● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth.
On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise.
◉ Conclusion
The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
Trading Recovery: Why Stopping After a Loss is Key to SuccessIntroduction
In the world of trading, the psychological landscape can be as treacherous as the financial one. The notion of knowing when to stop trading after a string of losses is crucial, yet often overlooked by many aspiring traders. As I evolved into a more serious trader, I realized the significance of halting my activity when faced with a bad start to the day. My trading strategy—clear and well-defined, including sound money management principles—became my lifeline.
Dr. David Paul once stated, “You will become a professional trader when you open positions only following your strategy; try to do it 30 times, and you will grow emotionally and psychologically.”
Since adopting this mindset, I’ve stopped allowing emotion to dictate my trades and began setting boundaries. If I experience three consecutive losing trades, I recognize that it simply isn’t my day. Tomorrow, I remind myself, offers a fresh start. In this article, I aim to delve deeply into why knowing when to step back can be the key to long-term success in trading.
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The Cycle of Chasing Losses
How often have you found yourself scrambling to recover losses after a string of bad trades? Many traders fall into the familiar trap of frantically trying to win back what they’ve lost. This common phenomenon shifts the focus from sensibility to a desperate urge for break-even. Research shows that nearly 80% of traders give into this emotional response after experiencing a loss, leading to a destructive cycle of poor decision-making and dwindling finances.
Chasing losses has become synonymous with impulsive trading, often resulting in even larger setbacks. When traders act without a structured plan in the attempt to recover losses, they typically encounter even greater risks. What starts as an emotional response can escalate into a series of ill-fated choices, going against established strategies and money management rules.
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The Underlying Psychological Factors
To fully grasp why chasing losses is counterproductive, we must explore the psychological underpinnings of this behavior. At its essence, chasing losses is an emotional reaction steeped in fear and desperation. Loss aversion—a concept from behavioral finance—illustrates how humans feel the sting of losing money more severely than the joy of gaining. This emotional pain can lead to irrational behaviors that only exacerbate the problem.
Several psychological triggers contribute to this compulsive reaction:
1. Overconfidence: Early success can lead a trader to overestimate their market capabilities. Faced with losses, they often take undue risks to recoup their perceived misfortune.
2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): The rapid nature of financial markets can create a heightened urgency to capitalize on opportunities, leading traders to make abrupt decisions rather than careful assessments.
3. Emotional Turmoil: The distress accompanying losses can compel traders to act impulsively, disregarding their strategic foundations for the sake of emotional repair.
4. Revenge Trading: This impulsive approach emerges from frustration, where traders attempt to “get back at” the market, often leading them to compound their losses further.
These emotional responses illustrate the dangers associated with letting feelings guide trading decisions. Developing an awareness of these triggers is vital for maintaining discipline.
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The Consequences of Chasing Losses
Chasing losses can induce a plethora of negative consequences, both financial and psychological. The financial ramifications are often severe. Impulsive recovery attempts heighten risk exposure, leading to compound losses that can spiral out of control. Instead of cutting losses at 10%, a desperate trader might double their stakes, potentially leading to a catastrophic account downturn.
Emotionally, the toll can be equally ruinous. Continuous attempts to recover from losses can breed frustration and stress, leading traders to experience anxiety and helplessness. This emotional burden can culminate in burnout or, worst of all, a complete withdrawal from trading altogether.
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Why You Shouldn’t Chase Losses
While the instinct to recover losses feels natural, it is arguably one of trading's most hazardous pitfalls. The psychological pressures involved can lead traders to deviate from their strategies and make impulsive decisions born out of fear, ultimately resulting in further financial and mental strain.
Chasing losses is particularly perilous in volatile markets. Reacting to emotions rather than analytical assessments can exacerbate unpredictability, leading to ill-advised trades that ultimately multiply losses. Furthermore, as traders deviate from their planned methods, they surrender control over their trading process, risking instability in both financial standing and mental health.
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Strategies to Recover Without Chasing Losses
Rather than succumbing to the impulse to chase losses, traders should adopt disciplined recovery methods. Here are a few strategies that can facilitate a more effective and controlled recovery:
1. Maintain Trading Discipline: Stick firmly to your pre-defined trading plan. Resisting the urge to make impulsive trades can significantly minimize the psychological toll of losses.
2. Implement Robust Risk Management: Use tools like Stop Loss orders to safeguard your capital. Keep individual trade risks to manageable percentages, thus preventing significant downtrends.
3. Take a Break: If emotions run high after losses, stepping away from trading can help restore perspective and clarity. It’s crucial to approach the market with a calm mindset to avoid making knee-jerk reactions.
4. Adopt a Long-Term Recovery Mindset: Focus on patience and resilience rather than immediate recovery. Viewing setbacks as opportunities for growth can cultivate a healthier trading mindset.
5. Accept Losses as Learning Experiences: Instead of framing losses as failures, view them as valuable lessons. Analyzing what went wrong helps refine strategies and better prepares you for future trades.
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Conclusion
Understanding when to cease trading following a series of losses is pivotal for sustaining a successful trading career. Chasing losses may appear to be a natural response, but it leads to a cycle of impulsive decisions and escalating setbacks. The journey to becoming a disciplined trader relies on the capability to recognize when to step back, adhere to a solid strategy, and appreciate the invaluable lessons losses impart. In trading, every day is a new opportunity; by mastering the art of knowing when to stop, traders equip themselves for long-term success and emotional resilience in the markets.
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Kill Zone Trading in ForexKill Zone Trading in Forex
Kill Zones represent key periods when market volatility and trading volume surge. This article delves into the concept of Kill Zones, their strategic importance, and practical insights on how traders can leverage these windows for effective trading.
Understanding Kill Zones
Why do ICT Kill Zones matter? A Kill Zone in forex trading refers to a specific time period during which currency pairs experience increased volatility and volume. These periods are crucial for traders who aim to capitalise on significant price movements. The concept, popularised by Michael Huddleston, also known as the Inner Circle Trader, highlights the importance of timing in trading strategies.
The strategies are based on global forex hours. The forex market operates 24 hours a working day across four major sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York. The interaction between these sessions, particularly at their opening and closing times, creates unique opportunities for traders. The heightened activity during these periods can lead to greater liquidity and faster price movements.
The Four Primary Kill Zones
The four primary Kill Zones represent strategic windows where trading volume and volatility peak due to the interplay of global market sessions. Each period corresponds to key transitions in major forex markets worldwide.
Below, we’ve described each along with the key ICT Kill Zone times. You can see how currency pairs react during these times in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
1. Asian Kill Zone
Asian Kill Zone Time Period: 23:00 GMT to 02:00 GMT in winter and in summer.
This window coincides with the opening of Asian markets, primarily Tokyo. This period sees increased activity in currency pairs with AUD, NZD, and JPY.
The US dollar typically shows consolidation, providing an environment ripe for scalping strategies. Traders often monitor for optimal trade entry (OTE) patterns, another ICT concept, during this time, capitalising on the day’s initial movements and setting the stage for the European session.
2. London Kill Zone
London Kill Zone Time Period: 08:00 GMT to 11:00 GMT in winter (07:00 GMT to 10:00 GMT in summer).
This window is known for its volatility and significant trading volume, particularly involving EUR and GBP. As the London session opens, it often establishes the daily highs (in bullish markets) or lows (in bearish markets), reacting to developments from the Asian session.
Traders analyse market movements to prepare for potential breakouts or reversals. This window can be crucial when setting up trades, especially for currency pairs that show little activity overnight but become volatile with the London opening.
3. New York Kill Zone
New York Kill Zone Time Period: 13:00 GMT to 16:00 GMT in winter (12:00 GMT to 15:00 GMT in summer).
This window marks the overlap of the London and New York sessions, creating a critical period for USD-paired currencies. The dynamics of this period are influenced by the activity of traders from both continents being concurrently active. Traders seek continuation or reversal of the trends established over the London session, employing strategies that capitalise on the volatility to maximise returns.
4. London Close Kill Zone
London Close Kill Zone Time Period: 15:00 GMT to 17:00 GMT in winter (14:00 GMT to 16:00 GMT in summer).
As the London session concludes, this window typically exhibits less volatility but still offers opportunities for strategic trades. Traders might observe retracements or continuations of earlier trends. During this period, strategies often revolve around identifying trend exhaustion and preparing for potential reversals as European traders close their positions, influencing pair directions before the close of the American session.
Practical Considerations for Trading Kill Zones
When engaging with Kill Zones in forex, practical considerations are key to leveraging these periods effectively. Keep in mind these things:
Navigating Time Zone Shifts
Traders must account for time zone shifts such as British Summer Time (BST) and Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) when planning their trading schedules. These shifts can impact the real-time operation of forex markets by altering the relative timing of session openings and peak activity periods.
BST is GMT+1, moving the London window to an hour earlier for those trading on GMT. During BST, which typically runs from late March to late October, the London Kill Zone shifts from 07:00 to 10:00 GMT. Conversely, EDT, which is GMT-4, affects those in the US by advancing the New York window to start and end an hour earlier. This period typically extends from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November.
Risk Management
Trading during these windows involves navigating periods of high volatility, where price movements are rapid and unpredictable.
- Volatility-Based Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes based on volatility may be useful. In more volatile periods like the London or New York openings, reducing position size may help manage potential losses.
- Time-Specific Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders that reflect the heightened activity levels can help mitigate potential risks. For example, wider stop-loss margins might be necessary across the New York window due to the significant price shifts that can occur when both American and European markets are active.
- Real-Time Monitoring: Active monitoring during these volatile times is vital. Rapid response to price changes can potentially help mitigate losses. Setting alerts at particular levels and indicators may aid in a proactive approach.
The Bottom Line
Understanding and utilising Kill Zones may enhance a trader's ability to strategically enter and exit the market during periods of high volatility and volume. They offer pivotal opportunities for discerning traders to capitalise on significant price movements. For those looking to further explore or leverage these opportunities, opening an FXOpen account could be a valuable step towards engaging with currency pairs during these critical windows.
FAQs
What Is a Kill Zone in Trading?
A Kill Zone in trading refers to specific times in the forex market when price volume and volatility are significantly higher than usual, offering key opportunities for currency trades.
How Do You Use a Kill Zone?
Traders often analyse market conditions and use historical data to identify high-probability opportunities during these volatile windows.
How to Trade Effectively During ICT Kill Zones?
Trading effectively involves understanding each Kill Zone's characteristics and using effective risk management tools to capitalise on increased volatility and liquidity.
What Is the ICT Kill Zone Indicator for TradingView?
The ICT Kill Zone indicator, developed by LuxAlgo, highlights these critical periods directly on TradingView charts, aiding traders in visualising potential trading windows.
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How To Use Multi-Timeframe AnalysisHey,
In this video, I dive into the methods of multi-timeframe analysis, exploring how to use daily, weekly, and monthly charts alongside intraday charts like the 4-hour to gain a clearer picture of price movement.
Multi-timeframe analysis helps you view the same data through different lenses, allowing you to make predictions across various time horizons.
For example, a weekly trend or a monthly move can appear as a complete trend on lower timeframes.
By integrating these perspectives, you can better understand what price action is indicating and make informed decisions.
Kind regards,
Max
Benchmarking a trend with a moving average (Example: Gold)They say a bad workman blames his tools.
Quite often, good work means using the right tools.
In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average.
When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over longer periods (e.g. 20 week > 50 day).
Gold has just bounced off the 20 week moving average for the fourth time. The market is clearly benchmarking this trend according to this specific average.
So while the price is above this moving average the trend is intact - and when it eventually breaks below it will be an important signal that the strength of the trend has weakened - and could be about to reverse.
On the daily chart a rising trendline has broken but we would argue the reason the rebound off the low has been so strong is because the price rebounded off the 20 week moving average.
For now our bias is bullish but there are no good risk:reward opportunities to buy and it remains unclear whether the short term uptrend can continue after the trendline break
Aligning Your Personality With Your Trading StyleAs a trader, I've learned the significance of aligning trading strategies with my unique personality, current vibe and risk tolerance. Here's why it matters:
1️⃣ Understanding Yourself: Embracing self-awareness is the first step to successful trading. I identify my strengths, weaknesses, risk appetite, and emotional responses to market movements.
2️⃣ Emotion & Discipline: By aligning my trading approach with my personality, I stay disciplined during turbulent times and avoid making emotional decisions that hinder success.
3️⃣ Timeframes & Trading Styles: I choose trading timeframes and styles that suit my personality and vibe best. Whether I thrive in short-term scalping or prefer patient swing trading, aligning with my natural tendencies enhances performance. I find that also being able to adapt to my changing schedules and even moods is part of what makes this so important. For example, I am more relaxed while on holiday thus short term swinging matches my vibe much more than aggressive scalping or day trading during those time periods... but when motivated and on a work binge, I prefer shorter term trading.
4️⃣ Risk Tolerance & Position Sizing: My risk tolerance guides position sizing and the level of exposure I'm comfortable with. This ensures a balanced portfolio that doesn't cause undue stress. Zen trading, baby.
5️⃣ Consistency & Confidence: Aligning with my trading personality fosters consistency in my decision-making process. This consistency builds confidence in my strategies and reduces second-guessing. This is key when applying an edge and trading in probabilities.
6️⃣ Patience vs. Action: Some traders excel at waiting for the perfect setups, while others are more proactive. I embrace my natural inclinations, knowing that patience can be just as rewarding as taking action.
7️⃣ Learning & Adaptation: Understanding my trading personality allows me to focus on areas that need improvement and adapt my strategies accordingly. Continuous learning is the key to growth.
Trading personality alignment isn't a one-size-fits-all approach. By embracing who I am as a trader, I unlock my true potential, making more informed decisions, and ultimately achieving consistent profitability. 📊💪
The Importance of Measuring Trading Performance with "R"In today’s fast-paced trading environment, having an effective and clear method to track performance is essential for success. This article is tailored for short-term traders who typically manage 1–3 positions at a time and are looking for practical strategies to evaluate their trading outcomes. Unlike diversified stock portfolios or hedge funds that deal with long-term asset management, this guide focuses on the everyday realities of prop and retail traders.
Not everyone will agree with the concepts I discuss in this article, but this is how I track trading performance and how many other successful retail and prop traders track theirs. This is what I do, and it’s what I suggest. Let’s explore why tracking performance in terms of dollars risked versus dollars gained—using a metric called “R”—is a superior method compared to traditional measures like percentages or pips.
Why Percentages and Pips Fall Short
Most trading blogs and forums emphasize percentage or pip returns, but these metrics don’t tell the full story. Every trader operates under unique circumstances, influenced by their account size, risk tolerance, and trading style. A trader managing $1,000 doesn’t face the same challenges as one handling $100,000. For this reason, dollar-based performance tracking, specifically through “R,” provides a more accurate and relevant measure of trading effectiveness.
What is “R” and Why Does It Matter?
“R” is a measure of your risk-to-reward ratio across all trades. It reflects how much you make relative to how much you risk. For example:
If you gain $100,000 in a year and lose $50,000, your R-value is 2R ($100,000 ÷ $50,000).
A 2R track record means you’re making $2 for every $1 you lose, while a 3R track record means $3 for every $1 lost.
A solid R-value is a strong indicator of trading proficiency. It provides a quick, meaningful snapshot of performance, and investors or prop firms evaluating your track record will prioritize this metric. A high R-value demonstrates effective risk management and profitability.
Percent Risk vs. Fixed Dollar Risk
Risking a percentage of your account, such as 2% per trade, is a popular strategy but isn’t ideal for short-term traders. While it works well for diversified portfolios or hedge funds managing multiple assets, short-term traders focusing on a few positions should prioritize fixed-dollar risk. Here’s why:
Relevance: A 100% gain on a $300 account isn’t as significant as a 50% gain on a $10,000 account. Dollar gains give a clearer picture of actual performance.
Leverage: Forex trading allows traders to control large positions with smaller deposits. A trader with $1,000 and one with $10,000 can both manage similar position sizes due to leverage, making percentage returns less relevant.
The “Pillow Test”: Your ability to sleep at night often determines how much risk you’re truly comfortable with. For instance:
With a $1,000 account, risking 2%—$20—might feel inconsequential, comparable to the price of two beers and a pizza in some countries. This could lead a trader to feel comfortable risking 5% or even 10%.
However, with a $100,000 account, risking 10%—$10,000—might be enough to keep you awake at night. For most traders, myself included, this level of risk is intolerable.
This example highlights the limitations of percentage-based models. They fail to account for individual perceptions of money and risk. Dollar-based risk management and the R-value system, by contrast, adapt to the trader's mindset and circumstances.
Why Account Balances Can Be Misleading
Account balances don’t necessarily reflect a trader’s true trading capital. Many professional traders keep a minimal amount in their trading accounts and maintain the rest in safer, in a bank account or even in long term investments.
For example, a trader might control a 100k position with just $5000 in their trading account, but this does not mean that 5k is all their capital.
This strategy minimizes risk while leveraging the power of Forex trading.
Avoiding the Pitfall of Tying Up Capital
There’s no need to keep all your trading capital in one account. Thanks to leverage, traders can manage large positions with smaller deposits. Successful traders often withdraw profits monthly, maintaining a predetermined account balance and reallocating funds to other investments or savings. This approach underscores the irrelevance of account size in tracking performance. What truly matters is your dollar risk per trade and your overall R-value.
The Personal Nature of Risk Tolerance
Every trader has a unique risk tolerance shaped by their experience, confidence, and financial situation. A seasoned trader comfortable with their edge might take larger risks than a beginner. This variability further emphasizes the importance of measuring performance through R-values. Instead of comparing percentages or pips, traders can focus on their individual risk-reward balance and optimize their strategy accordingly.
Ultimately, risk tolerance is deeply personal. For some, losing a few hundred dollars on a small account feels negligible, but for others, the same few hundred, even if the account is considerably larger may become emotionally and psychologically taxing. This is why measuring returns in terms of dollars risked versus dollars gained is more practical and relevant.
Calculating Your R-Value: A Practical Example
Let’s break it down with a simple example:
Number of trades: 20
Fixed risk per trade: (amount varies by trader)
Winning trades: 9 (45%)
Losing trades: 11 (55%)
Gains: 33R
Losses: 11R
Overall R-value: 3R (33 ÷ 11)
This means that for every dollar risked, the trader earned $3 on average. Notably, the trader had more losing trades than winning ones but still achieved profitability due to effective risk-reward management.
Final Thoughts: The Power of “R”
Measuring trading performance in terms of R provides a comprehensive and meaningful view of your effectiveness as a trader. It transcends the limitations of percentages and pips, accounts for individual differences in risk tolerance, and aligns with the realities of leveraged trading. By adopting this approach, traders can better track their progress, refine their strategies, and present a compelling case to potential investors or prop firms.
GOLD: Trump tariff threat lift XAAUSD, focus shift to Fed Mints Fundamental Overview🌐
➡️Gold buyers try their luck ahead of Fed Minutes
Gold price extended the previous day’s corrective downside and reached multi-day lows before drawing strong support from a fresh flight to safety wave, triggered by the latest post by US President-elect Donald Trump on Truth Social.
➡️Trump pledged to announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes over his office on January 20. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Australia warned that “US policy on trade with China and other countries will have an impact.”
➡️Mounting concerns surrounding a looming global trade war dent risk sentiment, ramping safe-haven flows into the US Dollar (USD) and the traditional safety bet Gold price. However, the renewed USD demand and rebounding US Treasury bond yields limit Gold buyers’ enthusiasm as they await the Fed Minutes for fresh signals on the expected December interest rate cut.
➡️CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month.
➡️Additionally, waning geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a headwind for the bright metal. A senior Israeli official told Reuters on Monday that the Israeli cabinet will convene on Tuesday to approve a Lebanon ceasefire deal. Another Israeli official told Reuters the cabinet would convene to discuss a deal that could be cemented in the coming days.
➡️Gold price was thrown under the bus on Monday even as the USD and the US Treasury bond yields fell sharply on the news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.
➡️Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US bond market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.