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SHIB some educational point for investors (educational)Hello and greetings to all my valued followers and crypto enthusiasts. In this IDEA, I aim to provide some educational points and overview of the SHIBUSDT’s position. 🙌🐋 The SHIB token is one of the loudest tokens in the crypto market over the past few years, especially during the peak of the crypto market. It was a time when many investors flooded into the market, and this token experienced a significant explosive price increase. It had a large community and a very powerful tool known as media, which resulted in a massive influx of capital over a few months. Buyers at various levels and stages were purchasing this token, and their wallets saw beautiful positive green numbers, realizing substantial profits. However, before they could withdraw these profits, just like what happens to most of these upward explosions, they fell into doubt and uncertainty. This capital, like layers of sedimentary rocks formed at the bottom of the sea, became trapped and stagnant in the same purchased assets. As I mentioned, contrary to the potential this token has, it has fallen into a deep sleep, and to emerge from this slumber, a new influx of capital is needed. Nevertheless, it still holds great potential for growth. The point I want to emphasize today, or rather share from my personal experience, is to sometimes embrace the events that occur in life and give a new color to your path with this acceptance. Financial markets, much like life, embed the psychology of human beings in every layer. If you encounter failure or loss, stopping your losses at any moment is a golden win for you. I’ll keep my words short to have a deeper impact on you; just think carefully about my words and don’t repeat my past experiences. Now, I’ll provide a brief summary of the upcoming trend for the SHIB token: the price of this token is currently experiencing a range and calm cycle similar to most market trends, and with a new influx of capital, we can expect a good price increase. Summary: learn to accept your mistakes and cut the loss as soon as possible, don't steak to your pleasant moment happened in the past and respect this as well in crypto market too. Thank you for your attention. If you have any questions or comments, I’m here to respond to you. 🐋💡
Education
by MadWhale
4
Presidential Elections impact on Dollar and BitcoinThe U.S. dollar is key in global finance. It's used in trade and as a reserve currency. Presidential elections can greatly affect the dollar's strength. Changes in leadership and policy expectations lead to currency swings. These swings show how markets view future economic stability and policies. Historical Trends: Presidential Elections and Dollar Volatility Presidential elections bring uncertainty to markets. Investors try to guess how the election will affect policy and interest rates. This uncertainty makes the dollar more volatile. Here is how the DXY moved after the last 4 elections Price action suggests that we could go higher short-term, then down. However, Im not trying to predict anything now. I would rather wait and then do my classic trading setups as usual. Volatility can happen before and after an election. It depends on the clear result and policies the new administration will follow. Election Cycles and Currency Movements: The dollar is more volatile during election years. But, this effect varies based on market expectations of each candidate's policies. Historical Examples: In 2016, Donald Trump's win made the dollar rise at first. This was because of his pro-business policies. But, the 2008 election led to uncertainty and a weaker dollar. Factors That Influence the Dollar During Elections Several things affect the dollar during elections. These include: Economic Policy Outlook: Markets watch candidates' economic plans. Policies that boost growth, like tax cuts, help the dollar. Trade and Foreign Relations: Candidates' views on trade and foreign relations matter a lot. Protectionist policies might strengthen the dollar but could harm growth in the long run. Federal Reserve Influence: The president's Fed picks shape monetary policy. Markets react to changes in policy, like interest rate shifts, which affect the dollar's value. Market Reactions and Investor Behavior Before an election, investors often wait to see what happens. This makes the dollar move as they adjust their investments. After the election, the dollar's value changes based on the new policies. Currency as a Safe Haven: The dollar is often seen as safe during uncertain times. Even with U.S. risks, investors might choose the dollar for its stability. Impact of Policy Announcements: The dollar's immediate reaction depends on the winning candidate's policy plans. Big spending plans can lead to inflation, weakening the dollar over time. If we check COT data we can see that Non-comercials as well as commercials are both around 50/50 hedged. Empirical Data and Case Studies Studies show different effects of elections on the dollar, based on the economy: 2016 Presidential Election: The dollar rose after Trump's win due to his economic plans. These plans were seen as good for growth, leading to a positive dollar reaction. 2020 Presidential Election: After Biden's win, the dollar fell. This was because of expected big spending and low interest rates, which could cause inflation. 2024 Presidential Election: From a technical perspective, COT and seasonal tendencies. I think we could see push up but then the dollar is set for the deep dive. While Bitcoin has only been around since 2009, it has already experienced several U.S. elections with discernible impacts: 2016 Presidential Election: The lead-up to and aftermath of the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump take office, coincided with an increase in Bitcoin's price. The market anticipated regulatory easing and lower corporate taxes, creating a favourable environment for risk assets. Additionally, there was heightened uncertainty in global markets, leading some investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge. 2020 Presidential Election: The 2020 election was accompanied by heightened political tension and economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After Joe Biden’s victory, Bitcoin surged, with many investors perceiving the incoming administration’s stimulus policies as likely to increase inflation risks. This led to a major inflow of institutional investment into Bitcoin, pushing it toward new all-time highs. This can also be positive for the Bitcoin. Overall I think the impact will be just short term, whoever wins we will see a rally as the global liquidity is rising and it's the main driver for the bitcoin Long-term Implications The long-term dollar impact of elections depends on policy changes. Initial reactions can be strong, but lasting effects are rare. They happen only if new policies significantly change the economy or global trade. Conclusion The U.S. presidential election has a big impact on the dollar. This is due to market feelings, policy hopes, and the economy's state. Even though short-term ups and downs are usual, the dollar's long-term fate hinges on the new administration's actions and the economy's performance. Knowing how these factors work helps investors and policymakers. They can better prepare for and adjust to changes in currency markets during election times. Thanks for reading Dave FX Hunter
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Dave-Hunter
3
Trump vs. Harris: Economic and Policy Impacts on the U.S. Introduction: The U.S. presidential election is one of the most critical events in global politics, shaping the future of the country’s policies. This year, voters face a significant choice between two candidates with distinct approaches: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Their policies will influence the economic, social, and environmental future of the U.S. This script explores the key focus areas of both campaigns, their policy priorities, and the potential impact on the U.S. economy and national debt. 1. Economic Focus in Campaigns: Donald Trump: Tax Cuts and Deregulation: Trump emphasizes reducing taxes and deregulating industries to stimulate economic growth. He believes this approach helps businesses thrive and creates jobs. Job Creation and Manufacturing: Trump aims to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S., reduce outsourcing, and bolster domestic industries. Trade Policies: His "America First" trade policies focus on renegotiating trade deals to benefit American workers and industries. Stock Market Performance: Trump often points to stock market gains as an indicator of economic health and success under his administration. Kamala Harris: Economic Equity and Middle-Class Support: Harris advocates for policies that support the middle class, such as raising the minimum wage and providing tax relief for lower-income families. Investment in Green Economy: Her plan involves creating jobs through investment in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure, aiming for long-term economic growth. Healthcare as Economic Policy: Harris believes in reducing healthcare costs, arguing that affordable healthcare boosts economic productivity. Support for Small Businesses: She proposes targeted support for small businesses, especially those owned by women and minorities, to foster inclusive growth. 2. Policy Focus in Campaigns: Donald Trump: Immigration and Border Security: Trump’s policies focus on strict immigration control and border security to protect American jobs and safety. "America First" Policy: This policy emphasizes prioritizing U.S. interests in trade, defense, and foreign relations, appealing to nationalistic sentiments. Law and Order: Trump advocates for strong law enforcement to tackle crime and violence, particularly in urban areas. Kamala Harris: Healthcare Reform: Harris promotes expanding access to affordable healthcare, with reforms aimed at improving the healthcare system. Climate Change and Green Policies: She strongly supports measures to combat climate change through renewable energy and environmental regulations. Social Justice and Equality: Harris focuses on criminal justice reform, racial equality, and reducing income inequality. Women's Rights and Reproductive Health: She advocates for protecting women’s rights, including access to reproductive healthcare and equal pay. 3. Impact on U.S. Debt: Donald Trump: Tax Cuts and Defense Spending: His tax cuts, similar to those in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, are expected to reduce government revenue and potentially increase the national debt by $1.5 trillion over a decade. Short-Term Debt Impact: Increased defense spending could further elevate the debt unless offset by spending cuts elsewhere. Kamala Harris: Healthcare and Green Investments: Harris’s plans for healthcare expansion and green initiatives could increase the debt by $3.0 trillion over the next decade, unless funded by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. Long-Term Debt Impact: While these investments aim for sustainable growth, the initial cost could significantly raise the national debt if not managed carefully. Conclusion: In this election, Americans are choosing between two very different visions for the country’s future. Donald Trump’s focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and strong national policies contrasts with Kamala Harris’s emphasis on healthcare reform, climate action, and social justice. Understanding the economic and policy implications of each candidate's platform is crucial for voters. This decision will shape not only the U.S. economy but also its social fabric and global standing for years to come. Impact on the Global Economy: This election will not only determine the direction of U.S. domestic policies but also significantly influence the global economy. The current geopolitical landscape, including ongoing conflicts, adds to the complexity. The policies of the next U.S. administration could shift trade dynamics, global markets, and international alliances, particularly during a time of heightened tensions and uncertainty. Risk Management During the Election: During election periods, markets can be highly volatile due to uncertainty. To protect against potential losses, traders should: 1. Reduce Position Sizes: Lower your exposure to minimize the impact of sudden price swings. 2. Set Tight Stop Losses: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. 3. Avoid Overtrading: Stay disciplined and avoid making impulsive decisions based on market noise. 4. Hedge Positions: Consider hedging strategies, such as options, to manage risk. 5. Stay Informed: Keep track of election-related news and updates to adjust your strategies accordingly. 6. Increase Cash Reserves: Holding more cash reduces risk exposure and provides flexibility. By following these risk management strategies, traders can navigate the election period more safely and protect their capital.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SroshMayi
Mastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading ProfitabilityMastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading Profitability In the world of trading, achieving success isn't merely about selecting the right stocks or making spot-on predictions. True profitability lies in managing risk effectively, a skill that can be the difference between sustained growth and heavy losses. A primary tool for this is the risk/reward ratio—a fundamental element in a trader’s toolkit. This metric helps traders maintain discipline and clarity, ensuring each trade has a strong potential for profit while keeping possible losses in check. Whether you’re new to trading or have years of experience, understanding and using the risk/reward ratio can transform your approach. It’s not about maximizing the number of wins but ensuring that the rewards consistently outweigh the risks. Here, we’ll explore how this ratio impacts trading strategy and why it’s critical for long-term success. Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio The risk/reward ratio is a straightforward formula that compares the profit potential of a trade to its possible loss. Essentially, it answers the question: How much can I gain for every dollar I risk? For example, if you're willing to risk $100 for a possible $300 gain, your risk/reward ratio is 1:3, meaning you could make $3 for every $1 at risk. Example of a 1:3 risk-reward ratio in EUR/USD This concept encourages traders to evaluate the potential downside of a trade before jumping in, moving away from focusing solely on potential gains. By keeping a balanced view of risk and reward, traders can avoid seemingly attractive trades that may carry excessive risk, enabling them to approach the market with a disciplined, long-term mindset. Why Risk/Reward Matters Every trade involves risk, and the ability to manage it effectively often differentiates successful traders from those who struggle. Using the risk/reward ratio ensures that each trade is structured with a clear plan, protecting capital while allowing for potential profits. Without this focus on risk, traders may chase high returns without properly assessing the downside, leading to costly mistakes. Combined with tools like stop-loss orders and position sizing, the risk/reward ratio becomes part of a broader risk management strategy. These components work together to balance profit potential with loss control, which is essential for traders aiming to sustain profitability over time. Here you can find a comprehensive article on stop-loss strategies. Risk/Reward Ratio vs. Win Rate A common misconception among novice traders is that trading success depends on winning more trades than losing ones. Experienced traders know that profitability has more to do with how risk is managed in losses than how many wins you achieve. The risk/reward ratio addresses this, making it possible to be profitable even if a trader wins less than half of their trades, as long as the wins are substantial enough to offset the losses. For example, if a trader wins only 40% of the time but maintains a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, the profits from winning trades can cover losses from losing trades while still yielding an overall profit. Here is a comprehensive table comparing risk/reward ratios to win rate profitability. Advantages of a Disciplined Risk/Reward Approach One of the most valuable benefits of using the risk/reward ratio is the structure it brings to trading. It helps traders stay rational and minimizes emotionally driven decisions, such as holding onto losing positions with the hope of a reversal. By maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio, traders enter each trade with a defined plan, reducing the chance of impulsive, loss-heavy decisions. Furthermore, applying a risk/reward framework ensures that trades are entered only when the reward justifies the risk. Over time, this disciplined approach fosters consistency and sets the stage for more predictable results. Steps to Calculate Risk/Reward Ratio Calculating the risk/reward ratio is a simple yet impactful process that enhances trade planning. Here’s a step-by-step guide: 1- Determine Your Risk: Define the amount you’re willing to lose if the trade moves against you, which is the difference between your entry price and stop-loss level. 2- Define Your Reward: Establish the potential profit if the trade goes in your favor, measured from the entry price to your target profit level. 3- Calculate the Ratio: Divide the potential reward by the potential risk to get your risk/reward ratio. For instance, if you’re buying a stock at $100 with a stop-loss at $95, your risk is $5. If you aim to sell at $115, your reward is $15, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Choosing an Ideal Risk/Reward Ratio The ideal risk/reward ratio can vary based on trading style and goals, though many traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3. Higher ratios like 1:3 allow for a more forgiving approach to losses, where a trader doesn’t need a high win rate to be profitable. However, shorter-term traders might use lower ratios (e.g., 1:1.5) while aiming for a higher win rate to balance profitability. Ultimately, the best ratio depends on factors like trading frequency, volatility, and risk tolerance. Day traders may prefer a 1:2 ratio, allowing for quicker exits with decent returns. Swing traders, on the other hand, might look for a 1:3 ratio or higher to justify holding positions longer despite potential market fluctuations. Managing Risk with the Right Tools Achieving long-term profitability requires more than just a favorable risk/reward ratio; it also demands effective risk management. Stop-loss orders, for instance, are invaluable for capping potential losses. Placing stops at logical price points, such as below support levels or above resistance levels, helps protect positions without risking premature exits. Similarly, maintaining discipline by skipping trades that don’t meet your risk/reward criteria can prevent excessive losses. Proper position sizing and a detailed trading plan round out this approach, ensuring that each trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance. Here is a comprehensive guide about the Risk Management Final Thoughts: The Power of the Risk/Reward Ratio in Trading The risk/reward ratio is more than a calculation—it’s a mindset that can lead to stronger, more disciplined trading decisions. By assessing potential risks and rewards before each trade, you can avoid impulsive choices and safeguard your capital. This approach brings clarity and control to trading, even amid market unpredictability. While the risk/reward ratio may be a straightforward tool, its impact is profound. Focusing on balancing risk with reward enables traders to protect themselves from major losses while pursuing worthwhile gains. The next time you plan a trade, remember to ask: “Does this meet my risk/reward criteria?” If not, stepping back could be the wisest move. Risk management is essential for lasting success, and the risk/reward ratio serves as a constant guide. Consistently applying this ratio fosters discipline, confidence, and, ultimately, greater profitability in your trading journey. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
1
Why Trading Sessions Matter in Forex: Key OverlapsThe Forex market is open 24 hours a day during the weekdays, allowing traders flexibility to trade at any time. However, understanding the best times to trade is essential for effective trading. The market is divided into four main sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York, each corresponding to peak activity in key financial centers. Using a Forex Market Time Zone Converter can help traders determine which sessions are active in their local time, making it easier to plan around high-liquidity periods. Although the market is technically always open, not all trading times are equally profitable. Higher trading volume, which generally occurs during session overlaps, creates ideal conditions for traders. For example, the overlap of the London and New York sessions sees the highest volume, with more than 50% of daily trades occurring in these two centers. Trading at this time, especially with currency pairs like GBP/USD, can lead to tighter spreads and quicker order execution, reducing slippage and increasing the likelihood of profitable trades. Similarly, trading AUD/JPY during the Asian session, when the Tokyo market is active, is advantageous due to higher trading activity for these currencies. Conversely, trading during times when only one session is active, such as during the Sydney session alone, can result in wider spreads and less market movement, making it harder to achieve profitable trades. Planning trades around high-activity sessions and overlaps is key to effective forex trading.
Editors' picks
Education
by habib75rajabi
8
You Killed my Dog - Revenge TradingRevenge trading is a behavioral trap that can ensnare even experienced traders. It's the impulse to enter a new trade immediately after a significant loss, often fueled by frustration or a need to "win back" what was lost. However, succumbing to this urge can lead to further losses and greater emotional instability. This psychological cycle, if left unchecked, can spiral into a destructive pattern that can erode both account balances and self-confidence. 1️⃣ Understanding the Root of Revenge Trading At its core, revenge trading arises from the natural human response to loss. This reaction can be linked to what’s known as the "fight-or-flight" mechanism—when traders feel threatened by a financial loss, they experience a rush of adrenaline, which can result in impulsive decision-making. This initial phase often reflects the trader's attachment to their profits or ego rather than a rational, strategy-based response. You need to recognize this instinct to regain lost money as the first step to addressing revenge trading. By understanding that revenge trading is driven more by emotion than by reason, you can start building awareness around your trading behavior. 2️⃣ Identifying the Emotional Cycle in Revenge Trading The emotional cycle in revenge trading typically starts with anger, followed by a need to “win back” losses, often resulting in riskier trades. This cycle can repeat and intensify as losses compound, leading to feelings of self-blame and regret. Identifying the triggers that set off this emotional cycle—such as a recent loss or the need to prove something—can help you avoid jumping into impulsive trades. Recognizing these cycles early can allow you to pause, reflect, and make better choices. 3️⃣ Setting Up Predefined Trading Rules One of the most effective strategies to prevent revenge trading is to establish strict trading rules, including stop-loss levels, damage control triggers and daily limits. When you have clear, predefined rules, it becomes easier to stick to a plan rather than trading based on emotions. For instance, having a rule to stop trading for the day after a certain level of loss ensures that you have time to step away and reset mentally. Knowing when to pause prevents the desperation that often triggers revenge trading, reinforcing discipline and giving you time to recover emotionally. 4️⃣ Building Self-Awareness Through Mindfulness Practices Mindfulness is an effective tool for managing the emotional pressures that come with trading. Practices such as deep breathing, meditation, or even journaling after each trading session can help increase self-awareness and emotional regulation. These exercises help you stay present in the moment, allowing for a more objective assessment of a situation without letting anger or frustration cloud your judgment. The more self-aware you become, the better you can avoid the emotional pitfalls that lead to revenge trading. 5️⃣ Creating a Loss Recovery Plan Developing a structured plan for recovering from losses is another way to counteract revenge trading tendencies. This plan may include specific actions, such as re-evaluating the last losing trade, understanding why it failed, and making a list of ways to improve your strategy. A loss recovery plan can provide structure and prevent panic-driven decisions. For example, instead of doubling down on the next trade, you might focus on smaller, more conservative trades to gradually regain what was lost, creating a more balanced and thoughtful approach to rebuilding. 6️⃣ Learning from Historical Instances of Revenge Trading The idea of revenge trading is not new; many traders, including professionals, have been affected by it. One well-known example is the collapse of Barings Bank, which was largely due to rogue trader Nick Leeson’s revenge trading following initial losses. His increasing risk in an attempt to “win back” losses ultimately led to catastrophic results. Studying such cases reminds you of the real consequences of revenge trading and encourages you to approach each trade with caution, even after a loss. 7️⃣ Leveraging Support Networks and Mentorship Having a support system, such as trading peers, a coach, or even online communities, can provide accountability and perspective when dealing with losses. Discussing challenges and trading experiences with others helps you reflect on your decisions and avoid impulsive trading. A mentor, in particular, can be instrumental, as they bring experience, objectivity, and practical advice for managing the emotional hurdles of trading. By fostering these connections, you build resilience and have someone to consult with during tough times, which can help prevent revenge trading behaviors. Shameless plug: join us at The Trading Mentor, you will not regret it ;) Revenge trading can be a powerful and destructive force, driven by deep-rooted emotional responses to loss. But with self-awareness, mindfulness, structured plans, and support, you can gain control over these impulses and foster a healthier, more disciplined trading mindset. The journey to overcoming revenge trading is one of introspection, strategy, and gradual improvement, helping you achieve long-term trading success while minimizing emotionally driven mistakes.
FX:SPX500Education
by AlexSoro
1
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Ready to Strangle a BreakoutIntroduction: Why Natural Gas is Poised for Volatility Natural Gas markets are showing signs of a potential volatility surge as recent data from the United States Natural Gas Stocks Change (USNGSC) displays a rare narrowing of the 21-day Bollinger Bands®. This technical setup often precedes sharp market moves, suggesting an upcoming breakout. Given the importance of fundamental shifts in natural gas inventory data, any unexpected change in USNGSC could significantly impact Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), leading to price movements in either direction. This Options Blueprint Series explores a strategy to capitalize on this anticipated volatility: the Long Strangle Strategy. By setting up positions that profit from sharp directional moves, traders may capture gains regardless of the direction in which the price moves. Understanding the Long Strangle Strategy A Long Strangle involves purchasing a call option at a higher strike price and a put option at a lower strike price. This setup allows traders to profit from significant price movements in either direction. The chosen strategy for this analysis includes: Expiration: February 25, 2025 Strikes: 2.5 put at 0.28 and 2.7 call at 0.29 This setup is ideal for capturing potential breakouts, with limited risk equal to the total premium paid. Unlike directional trades, a Long Strangle does not require forecasting the direction of the move, only that a substantial price change occurs before expiration. Technical Analysis with Bollinger Bands® The 21-day Bollinger Bands® applied to USNGSC have narrowed significantly, often an indicator that the market is building up pressure for a breakout. Historically, this type of setup in fundamental data can drive volatility in Natural Gas Futures. When the Bollinger Bands® width narrows, it indicates reduced variability and increased potential for data changes, awaiting release. Once volatility resumes, a dramatic shift can occur. This technical insight provides a solid foundation for the Long Strangle Strategy, aligning the timing of options with the potential for amplified price movement in Natural Gas. Contract Specifications for Natural Gas Futures To effectively plan and manage risk in this trade, it’s crucial to understand the contract details and margin requirements for Natural Gas Futures (NG). o Standard Natural Gas Futures Contract (NG): Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $10 per tick. o Micro Natural Gas Futures Contract (optional alternative for smaller exposure): Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.001 per MMBtu or $1.00 per tick. Margin Requirements The current margin requirement for a single NG futures contract generally falls around $2,500 but may vary with market conditions. $250 per contract for Micro Natural Gas Futures. Trade Plan for the Long Strangle The Long Strangle strategy on Natural Gas involves buying both a put and a call option to capture significant price movements in either direction. Here’s how the trade is set up: o Expiration: February 25, 2025 o Strikes: Long 2.5 Put at 0.28 ($2,800) Long 2.7 Call at 0.29 ($2,900) o Cost Basis: The total premium paid for the strangle is 0.57 (0.28 + 0.29) = $5,700 per strangle position. Profit Potential Profits increase as Natural Gas moves sharply above the 2.7 call strike or below the 2.5 put strike, accounting for the 0.57 premium paid. With substantial price movement, gains on one option can offset the total premium and yield significant returns. Risk Maximum risk is confined to the total premium paid ($5,700), making this a capped-risk trade. Reward-to-Risk Analysis Reward potential is substantial to the upside and downside, limited only by the extent of the price move, while risk is capped at the initial premium cost. Risk Management and Trade Monitoring Effective risk management is key to successfully executing a Long Strangle strategy, particularly when anticipating heightened volatility in Natural Gas. Here are the critical aspects of managing this trade: Defined Risk with Prepaid Premiums: The maximum risk is predetermined and limited to the initial premium paid, which helps manage potential losses in volatile markets. Importance of Position Sizing: Sizing positions appropriately can help balance exposure across a portfolio and reduce excessive risk concentration in a single asset. Using Micro Natural Futures would help to reduce size and risk by a factor of 10 (from $5,700 down to $570 per strangle). Optional Stop-Loss: As the risk is confined to the premium, no stop-loss orders are required. Exit Strategies For a Long Strangle to yield substantial returns, timing the exit is crucial. Here are potential exit scenarios for this strategy: Profit-Taking Before Expiration: If Natural Gas experiences a significant price swing before the February expiration, consider taking profits which would further reduce the exposure to premium decay. Holding to Expiration: Alternatively, traders can hold both options to expiration if they anticipate further volatility or an extended price trend. Continuous Monitoring: The effectiveness of this strategy is closely tied to the persistence of volatility in Natural Gas. Keep an eye on Fundamental Updates in USNGSC as any unexpected changes in natural gas stocks data can lead to sharp price adjustments, increasing the potential for profitability. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by traddictiv
The Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To KnowThe Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To Know Among the major currencies covering the largest part of forex trading volume is the Canadian dollar (CAD), colloquially known as the "Loonie" due to the image of a loon bird on the back of the C$1 coin. This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the CAD, a brief overview of its historical journey, and the factors driving it in the forex market today. Understanding the Canadian Dollar Over the years, the CAD has weathered fluctuations and policy shifts, impacting not only its value but also its influence in the world of finance. Originally, Canada used the British pound as its official currency, but it was gradually replaced by the Canadian dollar, which has been the country’s official currency since 1858. Following the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, Canada allowed its currency to fluctuate freely between 1950 and 1962, a period that culminated in a significant devaluation event. Subsequently, Canada adopted a fixed exchange rate until 1970, at which point mounting inflation pressures prompted the government to return to a floating currency system. Canadian Economy Canada boasts a stable and resource-rich economy that is also well diversified, yet when examining Canada's economic landscape, it's crucial to take into account its significant involvement in commodities. Canada is a significant producer and exporter of petroleum, minerals, wood products, and grains. Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Catalysts Various factors influence the value of the Loonie in the forex market. Here, we will explore some of the primary catalysts. Monetary Policy Decisions Impact CAD Predictions Interest rate announcements by the Bank of Canada usually take place eight times a year on predetermined dates. Higher interest rates often attract foreign investment in the economy, leading to an appreciation of the CAD's value. Following two consecutive pauses, the Bank of Canada surprisingly increased its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on June 7th, 2023, reaching 4.75 per cent. This decision was primarily prompted by a rise in inflation to 4.4 per cent, marking the first uptick in 10 months. Notably, the EUR/CAD exchange rate exhibited a pronounced reaction to this event. Economic Data Key economic indicators encompass the publication of GDP figures, retail sales data, industrial production statistics, inflation rates, trade balances, and jobs data. These reports follow established schedules; for example, you can use FXOpen’s economic calendar to track major events. Improvements in that data can be bullish for CAD, while a deterioration could exert negative pressure on the currency. In September, Canada’s GDP for the second quarter of 2023 signalled stalling economic activity, remaining unchanged from the first quarter against expectations. Unsurprisingly, there was a significant bullish market reaction in the USD/CAD exchange rate. The Impact of Oil on Canadian Dollar Trading Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its currency is closely tied to the price of crude oil. A rise in oil prices typically boosts the Canadian dollar. Conversely, falling oil prices can weaken the currency. The oil price war in March 2020 between Saudi Arabia and Russia had a direct and adverse impact on the Loonie. The CAD depreciated due to the country's significant reliance on oil exports and the reduced revenues resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices. Unique Factors to Consider in a Canadian Dollar Forecast In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, there are unique factors that forex traders consider when analysing the Canadian dollar buying rate today. Proximity to the United States Proximity to the United States is a defining factor in the performance of the CAD, which is notably influenced by the intricate economic ties with that country. These ties extend beyond trade to factors such as cross-border investments and shared financial markets. Positive developments in the US, such as robust economic growth or shifts in monetary policy, can elevate demand for Canadian exports, thereby potentially strengthening the CAD. Conversely, economic challenges in the US may disrupt trade flows between the two nations, leading to a potential weakening of the CAD. Commodity Prices and the Canadian Dollar Trend Apart from oil, Canada exports various other commodities, including metals and agricultural products. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can influence the CAD, as they impact Canada's export revenues and, respectively, the performance of the Canadian dollar. When commodity prices are on the upswing, there tends to be a surge of incoming capital, which positively affects CAD exchange rates. If you're eager to find new opportunities, you can visit FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Trade Relations Canada is a major player in global trade, having significant partnerships. News or events related to these agreements can significantly influence the CAD's performance. - USMCA (formerly NAFTA): The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is pivotal for Canada, as a significant portion of its exports are destined for the United States. Any changes or developments in USMCA can impact the CAD's value. - European Union: Canada has a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union (EU). This trade deal promotes exports to EU countries and fosters economic cooperation. - Asia-Pacific: Canada's trade relations extend to Asia-Pacific nations, where it actively trades with countries like China and Japan. The imposition of tariffs or the eruption of trade tensions can exert substantial pressure on the CAD. Tariffs can lead to reduced exports, affecting Canada's trade balance and potentially weakening the currency. Conversely, the resolution of trade disputes can lead to a stronger CAD. Geopolitical Stability Considering Canada's relatively robust economic position, the nation boasts a relatively elevated interest rate compared to other developed economies. Canada has also earned recognition for its prudent fiscal management, striking a harmonious balance between a government-influenced economy and a more laissez-faire approach. This characteristic becomes particularly relevant during times of worldwide economic instability. While not a reserve currency like the US dollar, the Canadian dollar is relatively stable. Takeaway To navigate the dynamic world of forex trading effectively, understanding the factors influencing the Canadian dollar's value is paramount. Among the unique features of the Loonie are its close ties to the US economy, reliance on commodities, and unique geopolitical position. Already have an idea of how to trade the CAD’s fluctuations? Open an FXOpen account and expand your journey right away. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
Market Talk Once upon a time, in a world where numbers ruled the land, there was a legendary figure known as The Market. The Market was ancient—older than any civilization, wiser than any philosopher, and as unpredictable as the tides. It was made up of all the economic factors in existence: supply and demand, inflation and deflation, bull runs and bear traps, fear and greed. And although it had no gender, age, or human voice, The Market had a way of speaking to anyone willing to listen. One day, a curious investor asked, "Oh, great Market, what secrets do you hold? Tell us about yourself." The Market responded, its voice an invisible wave rippling through stock exchanges, algorithms, and boardrooms across the world. "I have been here since the dawn of civilization," The Market said, echoing through the electronic hum of trading screens. "You measure my age in years, centuries, but I was born in the whispers of the first trade, the barter of a tool for food. I am older than your kingdoms, your empires. I have no age you can calculate, for my age is the heartbeat of human desire." The investor nodded, captivated. "But why do you move the way you do? Why are you sometimes up, and other times down?" "Ah," The Market chuckled, a low rumble heard in the rise and fall of stock prices. "I am driven by forces you may understand, yet never fully control. Supply and demand, fear and greed—these are my lifeblood. When fear spreads, I fall, and when hope rises, I soar. My movements are both wild and calculated, shaped by millions of decisions made every second. I am not a single entity; I am the collective mind of all who trade within me." "But why must you be so volatile?" asked another trader, watching the numbers dance erratically on the screen. "Because without change, there is no growth. Without risk, there is no reward. I am the measure of human ambition, innovation, and failure. My volatility is a reflection of all your hopes and dreams, fears and uncertainties." "And will you ever stop?" asked a cautious observer, worried about recessions and bubbles. The Market answered, "As long as people aspire to gain, as long as there is something worth exchanging, I shall continue. I do not stop, for I am the pulse of progress. Even in decline, I pave the way for a new beginning. Just as economies collapse and rise anew, so do I." The Market fell silent, its invisible presence still lingering in the air. The investors left with a new understanding. They saw The Market for what it truly was—not just numbers and graphs, but the spirit of human ambition itself, timeless and infinite. In the end, The Market was not just a system or a tool. It was a mirror, reflecting humanity back at itself. And as long as people dreamed, strived, and dared, The Market would be there, speaking in its own language, to those who dared to listen. ------Galelelo bull-----
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by privatesparrowbs
The Loss Effect: Why Traders Hold On To Losing Positions📍 In the realm of trading, the psychological weight of losses often outweighs the thrill of gains. This phenomenon, known as loss aversion , refers to the innate human tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Within the context of financial markets, this bias can lead traders to stubbornly cling to losing positions, driven by the hope that market conditions will eventually shift in their favor. Consequently, their focus often shifts away from the potential for profit to a preoccupation with preserving their existing capital. 📍 Reasons Traders Avoid Closing Losing Trades Several psychological factors contribute to traders’ decisions to retain losing trades: 1. Emotional Attachment Traders are not immune to the emotions that accompany financial decisions. When individuals invest in an asset, they often form an emotional bond with that investment. Experiencing a loss can feel like a personal defeat, stirring feelings of shame, frustration , and anger. This emotional attachment can cloud judgment and impede rational decision-making. Rather than assessing the asset’s current market value objectively, traders may cling to the hope that conditions will improve, in an effort to circumvent the distress associated with acknowledging a loss. 2. Fear of Realizing a Loss The psychology of loss is complex, with many traders perceiving the act of realizing a loss as more painful than the prospect of missing out on potential gains. This fear can compel traders to hold on to losing positions, hoping that the market will rebound to their initial entry points. By postponing the realization of a loss, they believe they can mitigate its emotional impact. However, this paradoxical reasoning often leads to extended periods in losing positions, even as downward trends become increasingly pronounced. 3. Lack of Confidence in Their Strategy Traders often rely on specific strategies or analyses when making investment decisions. When the market begins to turn against them, a sense of doubt regarding the validity of their strategy can emerge. This internal conflict can make it challenging for a trader to acknowledge a mistake. Instead of reevaluating their positions and accepting the reality of a loss, they may irrationally hold onto failing trades, hoping for an unexpected turnaround—an approach that typically exacerbates their situation. 4. Challenges with Objective Analysis Emotional responses can significantly hinder traders’ ability to conduct objective analyses of their positions. Important data and market signals indicating a need to exit a position may be ignored, leading to cognitive dissonance. This disconnect between emotion and analysis often causes traders to remain in unprofitable trades far longer than warranted, despite clear evidence suggesting the necessity of a change in strategy. 5. Cognitive Distortions Traders are susceptible to a variety of cognitive distortions that can cloud their judgment: ⚫️ Selective Attention: Many traders may emphasize their winning trades while minimizing the importance of their losses. This selective focus can result in a failure to adequately analyze losing positions, leading to the selection bias known as " cherry-picking ." ⚫️ Confirmation Bias: This cognitive bias leads traders to seek out and prioritize information that reaffirms their initial decisions, while disregarding contradictory evidence. As a result, they may grow increasingly reluctant to close losing positions, insisting on data that supports their original decision to invest. 📍 Conclusion: To Hold or Not to Hold Losing Positions? Deciding whether to maintain or close a losing position ultimately hinges on one's tolerance for losses. If a stock continues to decline in value without signs of recovery, persisting in holding it may be misguided; in such cases, it may be more prudent to exit and then consider purchasing at a more favorable price. However, it is equally ill-advised to close positions at the slightest market correction. The crux of the matter lies in understanding the underlying reasons for the loss. If no fundamental issues exist and the downturn appears temporary—especially when the loss aligns with typical statistical drawdowns—there may be no need to exit the position prematurely. Ultimately, a balanced approach involving emotional detachment and a keen awareness of market dynamics can aid traders in making more informed and strategically sound decisions regarding their positions. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
5
How to Turn TradingView Strategy into Automated Exchange OrdersAutomating trading strategies can be an intimidating task, especially when you need to manage execution across multiple exchanges. It requires not only developing a solid strategy but also coordinating order execution, tracking trade performance, and integrating with various APIs—all of which can quickly turn into a time-consuming endeavor. Imagine, though, if you could streamline this process: using TradingView alerts to trigger real trades automatically on your chosen exchange. There are ways to convert your TradingView strategy alerts into live orders, helping to simplify trade automation. This approach allows traders to automate entries, exits, and risk management, reducing the need for manual intervention and enabling a more hands-off trading experience. In this article, we'll walk through the step-by-step process to automate trades using TradingView alerts, making it easier for you to focus on developing your strategies while ensuring that your orders are executed smoothly across multiple exchanges. 1. Click Alert Messages in your bot, copy webhook URL, strategy action parameters and alert message 2. Go to TradingView charts, select trading pair, choose strategy and apply it to the chart Note: click Create a working copy in case it is a community script to have edit access 3. Add alert_message parameters from the bot to strategy entry, close or exit actions and click Save 4. Set the chart timeframe and strategy configuration until backtest results meet your expectations 5. Click Alert, select strategy as condition, paste bot's alert message, set webhook URL and click Create By following a few straightforward steps, you can automate your TradingView strategies using alert-based systems. This integration allows your trades to be executed directly on your preferred exchange, enabling you to concentrate on strategy development rather than manual execution. Whether managing entries, exits, or adjusting risk levels, this approach helps streamline the entire process, making trading more efficient and reliable. Alert-based automation works across major exchanges like Bybit, Binance, OKX, and others, offering flexibility and control over your trading strategies, regardless of market conditions.
Education
by Skyrexio
What Is a Trading Journal, and How Traders Keep One?What Is a Trading Journal, and How Traders Keep One? For traders, keeping a trading journal is an important activity that helps them improve their trading skills. A trading journal is a systematic record-keeping tool that is used to document trades, strategies, and outcomes. It is a way to track performance by recording the entry and exit points, the reasons for entering the trade, and the results. This FXOpen article discusses the way traders track their progress, identify patterns, and learn from mistakes. You’ll learn about the types of trading journals and their benefits and find out exactly what to record. Types of Trading Journals Here are three trading journal examples. You can choose a format that works best for you, whether it’s handwritten notes in a notebook, a trading journal online spreadsheet, or a specialised app. The key is to be consistent in recording your activity. - Use a notebook . Simply record the details of each trade on a new page or divide the page into convenient columns. - Create a spreadsheet to keep track of your trades. Consider including columns for the entry and exit points, reasons, and outcomes. - Choose trading journal software from the multiple options available. Apps make it easy to record and analyse trades. Some popular ones include Edgewonk and Tradervue. Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal Keeping a journal has several benefits. The most important thing is that by using this tool for self-analysis and learning, you can increase your chances of success in markets and make data-driven improvements. Let’s break down why it can be useful. - Identifying patterns. By keeping a record, you can identify patterns in your behaviour. For example, you may notice that you tend to enter trades at certain times of the day or that you have a tendency to hold losing trades for too long. - Learning from mistakes. If you review your losing trades, you may identify what went wrong and how you can avoid making the same mistake in the future. - Tracking progress. A trading journal is a way to track your progress. You can see how much you’ve improved. It’s also a means to reflect on your decisions. - Improving discipline. Recording your activities can help you improve your discipline. By stating the reasons for entering the trades, you hold yourself accountable for your decisions. - Controlling emotions. A journal can serve as a therapeutic outlet to express your thoughts and feelings. This allows you to separate your emotions from your decisions and make them more logical and reasonable. Whether it’s a forex trading journal or one for stocks, crypto* or indices, the benefits will be the same. The usefulness of keeping a record will be self-evident. How to Keep a Trading Journal It’s to be expected that over time, a journal will become an invaluable resource for improving skills, minimising risk and achieving more consistent effectiveness in the financial markets. The hardest part is getting started, although keeping a journal is actually easy. Here are the five steps you can follow. 1. Choose a Format Decide whether you want to keep a physical trading journal book, use a digital spreadsheet, or employ specialised software. Choose a format that you’re comfortable with, and that aligns with your needs. If you’re using a spreadsheet or digital document, you can create a trading journal template that includes the key information you plan to record for each trade. 2. Record Your Trades Record the details of each trade you make. You can include the date and time, as this information is essential for tracking the timing of trades and assessing how different market conditions may affect your decision-making. Recording your strategy or approach is a great idea. Regardless of whether it is based on technical, fundamental, or combined analysis, be sure to state your methodology. You may also want to detail the risk management techniques you used, such as stop-loss and take-profit orders. On the TickTrader trading platform, you can find various tools for risk management. After using them, you can evaluate how effectively they protected your capital. 3. Record Reasons and Your Emotional State Consider writing down the reasons that prompted you to enter the trade. What factors or indicators influenced your decision? For example, if you prefer currencies, did you enter the trade because of a certain technical pattern or a country’s GDP report? Documenting your emotional state before and during the trade is also important. Were you confident, anxious or fearful? An honest self-assessment of your emotions is critical to identifying emotional triggers that can influence you. 4. Review Your Trades Think about reviewing your trades and indicating the final result — profit or loss. Be sure to write down the actual numbers so that you can accurately assess your results. When documenting your trades, it’s crucial to remain objective. Do not justify bad decisions or self-glorify successful ones. The purpose of keeping a journal is to learn and improve. You can schedule a regular review of your trades. This can be done weekly or monthly, depending on how often you trade. During these reviews, you are likely to find patterns and identify areas for improvement. 5. Be Consistent Consistency is key. You can develop a routine for recording trades. Make sure you thoroughly document all of them, regardless of their size or perceived importance. If it’s too difficult to do this yourself, you can use an automated trading journal. This is a great solution for those who have a hard time making habits. Final Thoughts Keeping records of your trades is a way to have a structured and systematic approach to monitoring and evaluating trading activity. This leads to better-informed decisions and improved performance. By recording details of trades, strategies, emotions, results, and risk management techniques, you can gain valuable insights into your behaviour and patterns. If you want to engage in trading in over 600 markets, you can open an FXOpen account. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
SMHI - Can an ugly chart actually be a good play?This is one of those charts I had on a watchlist titled "Waiting For Bottom". I checked in on Friday and it was touching the bottom of the channel. Boom! Is this post a prediction? Nope. Do I think this Elliott Wave count is for sure accurate? Nope. So what is this? First of all, remove all of the markings and look at the chart with nothing but price action. What do you see? If your answer is a "a complete mess that was generally melting up until the middle of 2024", you'd be correct. This is not a trending stock with a high probability setup. There is no clear 5-waves up pattern playing out. In fact, there is no clear anything pattern playing out. But that's exactly why I think this "might" be a diagonal and might be an interesting play for a solid risk/reward. What is a diagonal you ask? Let's make sure you understand. In Elliott Wave, there are only TWO types of bullish patterns. The first is the classic 5-wave impulse where the underlying trends up in odd numbered waves and correcting each one in the even numbered waves. Think of a lightning bolt. 1 - Up off a low. 2 - Corrects 1, can't move below it. 3 - The breakout, usually the most impulsive and powerful wave. 4 - Corrects 3, can't break below the top of 1. 5 - The final move up, can be powerful, can be weak, but will almost always give a higher high. 5-wave impulsive moves start when the underlying is very bearish. Wave 1 starts by getting back to or breaking a key resistance area. Those who jump in during it are considered early adopters. The only support is the previous low. The vast majority of market participants are avoiding. Once it tops and rolls over, the majority are convinced new lows are coming. Some early adopters sell out or take profit. But a successful Wave 2 holds above the previous low, giving a higher low setup. It is followed by a consolidation as momentum builds up in the beginning of the 3rd wave. Once Wave 3 breaks out above Wave 1, smart technical traders start jumping in. Maybe it happens on an earnings report and some fundies jump in. It starts to really trend as more heads start to turn and realize that not only did it hold a higher low, buts its also working on a higher high. And if it is powerful enough, it will break more resistance and more and more participants will jump in. Eventually though, Wave 3 tops. Many early adopters take their profit and leave. It consolidates into a Wave 4, holding another higher low above the Wave 1 top. But as it starts Wave 5, the majority of the participants are now the late adopters and retail traders, with a spattering of early adopters who still have a small tranche left, already being in the green on smart sales at the top of Wave 3. Wave 5 then completes, often trapping late adopters who were sure it was going to the moon. Well this stock doesn't seem to be that. This thing overlaps all over the place. It could be an upward corrective wave of some sort before a drop to new lows. But as of now, it's playing along nicely with what its called a diagonal. A diagonal is a 5-wave structure. But this one is different. With diagonals, Wave 3 "can" overlap below the top of Wave 1. And one of the leading clues you might be in a diagonal is when the subwaves break down into segments of 3 wave moves instead of 5 wave moves. Why does this exist? Well, it starts off similar to a standard 5-wave move. A low is formed and a move is commenced off of it. But the succeeding retracement of that move is VERY deep, retracing almost all of the first move up. The next higher high is then around 100-161.8% of the first move, with the retracement that follows also very deep. All of this is likely happening within Wave (1) and Wave (2) of the diagonal. See, market participants are so polarized with the underlying, that they are whipping it back and forth, neither side able to ultimately win very long, yet the bulls slightly nudging out the bears with marginal higher highs and higher lows. It continues this whipsaw with every move, slowly melting upward. Instead of the whole 5-wave pattern targeting the 176.4%-200% extension of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 2 (what happens in a standard 5-wave impulse), it targets lower extension levels, typically the 161.8% level. Diagonals are either LEADING or ENDING moves. They CAN NOT be 3rd waves in larger patterns. So you will either get one as a first wave of a larger move, or you will get one to finish a larger move. In this case, it would be a leading diagonal of something much larger. So back to this specific stock. Thanks for enduring the educational section. Let's talk why I think this is a diagonal. You can see the wave labels clearly outlining the 3-wave moves within the larger 5-wave diagonal. They are labeled ABC within the (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). At present, this is within $1 of the ideal retracement level of the (3)rd wave for Wave (4). And it's clearly the 3rd segment of the ABC we would expect for a corrective (4)th wave. Not only that, it's holding the channel (but that's not required, just an area of support). Diagonals do often retrace deep, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to the 76.4% correction area around $4.50. If you are risk averse, you could enter in the current area with stop just under $4.49. But as long as it holds the Wave (2) low, the diagonal stays valid. Ideally, it would be either contracting (trendline connecting (1), (3), and (5) contracting toward trendline connecting (2) and (4)) or expanding (same thing, but trendlines diverging away from each other), with expanding diagonals being pretty rare, but possible. They can tend to run in channels as well. So ideally, this doesn't get much lower as that would turn it into an expanding diagonal, which we know is rare, and leads to future bullish action being even MORE unreliable. Standard supply and demand zones are on the chart representing major support and resistance areas. If this holds support, it likely finds renewed strength up toward resistance and will bounce around in mostly unpredictable, overlapping structures that generally melt up. But once it engages the next C Wave, you should be able to track a standard 5-wave pattern within that C, as C-waves are always 5-wave structures. As I stated at the beginning, in no way is this a reliable structure. But you see things like this fairly often, and anywhere from second to monthly charts. The longer the duration, the more confusing, as you can have years of price movement that seem to make no sense. Ultimately, you have to watch supports and play smart. Is this something you want to align a lot of your money in? Probably not. It's unpredictable at best. And it could fail at any moment at worst since diagonals are "technically" corrective structures even when bullish. But is a chart like this giving up a setup for potentially phenomenal risk/reward? You bet. Just make sure and manage your risk. And you do that with your position sizing, using an appropriate stop *and if you get stopped, stay stopped. You set it for a reason, don't second guess), and understanding your targets, making sure to de-risk as quick as possible by selling enough at key levels to get your original equity back should it move upward. Feel free to ask questions. This was meant to be educational and shed some light on a complicated chart structure while providing a thesis for how to potentially play it. Standard disclosures: 1. This is 100% my idea. It was not sourced from any other avenue. 2. I am not invested in this company, though I am likely buying shares soon. 3. I am not paid to post content nor do I receive any contributions of any kind. 4. While this is outlining a potential profitable setup, this article is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence on any company you invest in and apply your own trading strategies. 5. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this company. I suggest doing your due diligence if fundamentals are important to you. 6. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. 7. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the alternatives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. My analysis is purely educational.
NYSE:SMHIEducation
by mazag08
The Weekend: Prepping to Trade & Travel w/AIRAIn preparation for a trip to show my daughter more of Thailand, I've switched to a fully mobile setup. I’m running everything with just two laptops and a monitor for each, getting my mind ready for this new workflow. I’m excited for this change because our usual work routine felt like it was limiting her experiences at such a crucial time in her life. This upcoming week is a big one, but nothing is more important than her growth and development. So, I hope you enjoy this test video. Rest assured, What's Flowing videos will keep flowing, and my algorithms will stay busy spread trading across various markets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by moneymagnateash
Perspective from a distance! November 3 On the higher time frame (Weekly) we can clearly see 1. Mid October the buyers were in the driving seat 2. Ebbing into indecision towards the end of the previous month 3. Clear signal that the sellers are in control starting November What we can infer from these candlesticks is very obvious! Bulls have run out of steam or in other words buyers (or new money) is/are not interested in entering the market Profit taking may continue Interest rates are expected to stay elevated (even if we see a .025% rate cut) Warren Buffet definition about gold So like they say Trend is your Friend we will look for selling opportunities in both Gold and BTC.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ccpudaism
Creating your Trading Plan🔸Creating a comprehensive trading plan is a foundational step for any trader, whether you are involved in forex, stocks, options, or crypto markets. A well-structured trading plan outlines your trading goals, strategy, risk management protocols, and the psychological mindset necessary for success. Let’s break down the core components: strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence. 1. Trading Plan Strategy A trading strategy is a set of rules or guidelines you follow to identify, enter, and exit trades. Here are the elements to consider: ▪️Market Selection: Define which markets you will trade (e.g., forex pairs, stocks, cryptocurrencies) and what your time frames will be. ▪️Trading Style: Will you be a day trader, swing trader, or a long-term investor? Your style will influence your strategy. ▪️Entry and Exit Rules: Specify the technical or fundamental indicators that will trigger your trades. For example, you might use moving average crossovers, support and resistance levels, or candlestick patterns for entry and exit points. ▪️Trade Execution: Outline how you will place trades and manage your orders (e.g., market orders, limit orders, trailing stops). ▪️Backtesting: Before committing real money, test your strategy on historical data to understand its effectiveness. ▪️Example: Suppose your strategy involves trading breakouts. You would define what constitutes a breakout, how to confirm it, and the risk/reward ratio you expect before taking a trade. 2. Risk Management Risk management is about preserving your capital and minimizing losses. It's a critical part of any trading plan and focuses on controlling how much you stand to lose on each trade and how to protect your account over time. ▪️Position Sizing: Determine how much of your capital you will risk per trade. Many traders risk no more than 1-2% of their total capital on a single trade. ▪️Stop Losses and Take Profits: Always use a stop-loss to cap potential losses and set a take-profit order to lock in gains. This should be part of your trading strategy. ▪️Risk/Reward Ratio: Ensure that the potential reward on a trade is worth the risk. A common minimum risk/reward ratio is 1:2, meaning you risk 1 unit of currency to make 2. Diversification: Spread your risk by trading multiple assets or markets instead of concentrating all your capital in a single trade or asset class. ▪️Example: If your account balance is $10,000, and you decide to risk 2% per trade, the maximum loss you would accept on any trade would be $200. This would dictate your stop-loss placement and position size. 3. Trading Psychology The psychological aspect of trading is often underestimated, but emotions can greatly impact your decision-making. Maintaining a disciplined and objective mindset is crucial. ▪️Emotional Discipline: Avoid trading based on fear, greed, or impatience. Develop routines that keep your emotions in check. ▪️Handling Losses: Accept that losses are part of trading and learn not to let them affect your confidence or decision-making. Sticking to your plan, even after a loss, is crucial. ▪️Confidence and Patience: Build confidence in your strategy through thorough backtesting and practice. Be patient and wait for high-probability setups. ▪️Avoid Overtrading: This happens when traders try to chase losses or enter trades impulsively. Stick to your plan and don’t trade just for the sake of it. ▪️Example: If you find yourself becoming anxious or stressed during a losing streak, take a break from trading to reassess your mindset. Practicing mindfulness or keeping a trading journal to reflect on your emotions can be very helpful. 4. Confluence Confluence in trading refers to multiple factors or signals aligning to indicate a strong trade setup. Relying on confluence increases the probability of a trade working in your favor. ▪️Technical Confluence: This might include a combination of support/resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, or chart patterns lining up to give you a higher confidence trade. ▪️Fundamental and Technical Confluence: Sometimes, combining technical analysis with fundamental data can strengthen your trade setup. For instance, a bullish technical setup supported by positive economic news. ▪️Multiple Time Frame Analysis: Check if your trade setup looks strong on multiple time frames. For example, a bullish signal on a daily chart confirmed by a shorter time frame like 4-hour or 1-hour charts. ▪️Example: Imagine you see a bullish reversal candlestick pattern at a major support level, and your moving average indicates an upward trend. This confluence of signals might give you more confidence to enter a long position. 🔸Putting It All Together A successful trading plan ties these elements together to give you a clear roadmap. Here’s a simplified example of a trading plan: 🔸Goal: Achieve 5% account growth per month. Market: Trade major forex pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD) during the London and New York sessions. 🔸Strategy: Use a breakout strategy confirmed by volume and momentum indicators. Enter trades when a breakout occurs from a key support/resistance level. 🔸Risk Management: Risk 1.5% of the account balance per trade. Use a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. 🔸Psychology: Practice emotional discipline. Use a trading journal to record trades and emotions. 🔸Confluence: Only take trades when at least three confluence factors align (e.g., breakout, volume increase, trend confirmation). 🔸By crafting and following a trading plan that incorporates strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence, you increase your chances of trading success while minimizing potential losses.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
11
COUNTER-TREND TRADING...SAFE OR RISKY?....EURCAD LIVE EXAMPLEWhat is going on everybody! Hope you are having an amazing weekend so far! Just wanted to come on here and speak a little bit about one of my favorite trading subjects which is counter-trend trading! I personally do counter-trend trading as one of my trading strategies so I wanted to come on here and share a real life example of some things I look for and the mentality behind trading against the current trend of price Hope you guys enjoy! Please boost and follow my page for more breakdowns! Appreciate you all! Cheers!
Editors' picks
Education
by JosePips
6
Be an expert at losing..Trading is a complex venture that involves understanding financial instruments, charts, patterns, market conditions, risk management and other factors. Becoming a successful trader requires more than technical knowledge. You also need to develop the right mindset to navigate the psychological intricacies of trading. Human emotion, instinct, and behavior can profoundly impact your decision-making process. That’s why it’s important to understand trading psychology. ~ OGwavetrader
Education
by OGwavetrader