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This is my setup !Those of you who are following me will know my logic! At the cost of being repetitive 1. Gold indicators need to cool down. No asset moves in a linear fashion (except the Zimbabwean Dollar) 2. Trump is a bit ahead in the presidential race and we all know republicans are known for their inflationary policies 3. Stellar ADP jobs numbers and today's unemployment claims reaffirmed that there is no 'hard landing' in the US economy 4. Easing Geopolitical tensions in the middle east 5. India's gold festival season shopping as ebbing out 6. Non commercial Institutions will go long at a lower level so more sellers will come into play. What are your views? Please share? Let us not trade in isolation. Thank you for reading!!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ccpudaism
Moving average crossover strategy by Cripto SolutionsI have been working with the crossover strategy for some time, I have been doing backtesting and I have been surprised by the level of success that they leave me with when it comes to putting it into practice. It is simply based on looking for where we have moving average crossovers, which are areas where The price ALWAYS has a reaction no matter how the movement comes. If it is going up it reacts downwards, if it is falling it reacts downwards. I have an operation precision level of more than 97% and with SL that does not exceed 1%, reducing unnecessary risks. The ideal is to identify the crossings from highest to lowest temporality, (Weekly, daily and 4H) smaller temporalities to polish the entries well. Put it into practice, you will never use an indicator other than the EMAs (5,20,200)
Editors' picks
Education
by CriptoSolutions
9
Daily ATR 2 and 10 Percent Values indicator for stop lossThis indicator displays three values: the ATR value, a 2% value and a 10% value of the Daily ATR. After adding the indicator to your chart, follow these steps to view the values and labels on the right: 1. Right-click on the price level bar or click the gear icon at the bottom of the price bar. 2. Select "LABELS." 3. Check mark the boxes for the following options: - "INDICATORS AND FINANCIAL NAME LABELS" - "INDICATORS AND FINANCIAL VALUE LABELS." 4. Look for D-ATR % Value, click on the gear icon and verify these settings D-ATR Lenght = 14 ATR Lenght = 14 Smoothing = RMA Timeframe = 1 Day 5. Select Wait for timeframe closes 6. Click on Defaults, Save as default, and click ok. You can move the indicator to the top of your chart if preferred, by clicking on Move pane up. Please keep the following in mind: when you scroll to the left of the chart if the indicator appears transparent, as shown in this image, it means you are not viewing the most recent values, likely because you are not at the end of the chart. To obtain the latest data, either click this button or this other one to reset the chart view or scroll to the end of the chart.
NYSE:MAEducation
by TraderMrE
Low hanging fruit continuation setup taken with Gold and NASIn this video, I walk you through my entire thought process during today's trading session. You'll learn how I selected the pairs and executed three key trades: * Silver long scalp * Gold LHF Short * NAS LHF short I'll also provide a detailed explanation of the LHF setup, helping you understand how to apply this strategy in your own trading. LHF is one of my personal A+ playbook setups. Don't miss out on these valuable insights and tips!
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by TC888
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 28/10/2024 Last week highlighted the importance of a risk management plan for all traders using the Judas swing strategy as a case study. The strategy produced two trades on FX:GBPUSD and one on $EURUSD. Despite facing two losses and securing only one win, proper risk management ensured that the single win offset the losses, allowing us to end the week at breakeven. With these results in hand, we were excited to see what the upcoming week would bring. We got to our trading desk at 8:25EST and started our day by demarcating our trading zones. Once we have demarcated our zones, we wait for the high or low of this zone to be swept, as this will assist us in determining our bias for the trading session. After 35 minutes, the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities during this trading session. Next on our checklist is to wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. After an hour, we observed a BOS on the sell side, which resulted in a Fair Value Gap (FVG) being formed in the process We must wait for the price to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). A trade can only be initiated once price has entered the FVG, and it is crucial to be patient and wait for the price to close before executing any trades. This waiting period acts as a filter to avoid scenarios where the candle entering the FVG proceeds to hit our stop-loss. The next five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap and closed, indicating that we can proceed with executing the trade The position experienced a drawdown shortly after the trade was executed, but this did not concern us as we had only risked 1% of our trading account, targeting a 2% gain. Additionally, we implemented a minimum 10 pip stop loss to allow the trade sufficient space to fluctuate without prematurely stopping us out and then proceeding in our anticipated direction. Upon checking the position later, we found it had shifted in our favor. However, we needed to remain composed since it had not yet reached our ultimate target. Our task was simply to be patient and wait for our targets to be achieved Upon reevaluating the position, we noticed that price had returned to the entry point. At such moments, individuals who have risked more than they can afford may start to panic. That's why we continually stress the importance of only risking what you can afford to lose, as it greatly diminishes the emotional investment in trades. We have encountered situations like this before and will likely face them again. However, what remains within our control is the decision to risk only an amount we are comfortable with losing, which in turn lessens the emotional attachment to the trades. According to our data, we can anticipate being in a position for an average of 11 hours, so the duration of this trade meeting our objective is not a concern we simply need to remain patient for it to occur. After 13 hours and 25 minutes, our patience was rewarded when our Take Profit (TP) was reached, resulting in a 2% gain on the OANDA:NZDUSD trade
Education
by CleoFinance
MATH - This is how you REALLY use Elliott WaveThis is a great example of a beautiful setup and how to lay out a low risk, high reward trade, especially for those that are still learning and wondering how to apply Elliott Wave. Or maybe you are unfamiliar with Elliott Wave or someone who thinks it's nonsense. Well let me show you how I do it and hopefully help you learn the best technical strategy. These are the setups I salivate on. And I don't care if I lose 8 out of 10, because the 2 that hit will more than pay off the losers. Support box is clear. Below the September low and I'd be out as we'd be below the reliable 61.8% retracement. Breaking that fib retracement level means that it can do anything from bullish, to diagonal, to sideways, to bearish moves. And we don't want to waste our time with stocks that aren't trending. Nothing is reliable anymore - therefore, we don't want to trade it below that. Toss it away. Move on to the next one. For this play, you could accumulate shares under $2.25 which is the previous high. I have it labeled as a Wave (1) but it could easily just be an (A) wave. As a quick refresher, trending impulsive moves happen in 5-wave moves. Since we don't know for 100% certainty that this will become that, we have to prepare for the other likely scenarios. We are already protected from significant downside with our stop below the 61.8% retracement, so I just don't care what might happen in a bearish count. So for bullish, I want to accumulate under the last high and catch the breakout. Once broken out, minimum target is $4.25. That's the 100% extension of (1) from the bottom of (2), the first resistance. If this ends up being a 3-wave (A)(B)(C), it would top out there at the 100%, so we want to make sure we have all of our money back by then. A full bullish follow through could take it anywhere between $12 (161.8% fib) and $22.50 (200% fib, which is where a standard impulsive 5-wave rally is expected to end with no extensions). If you buy a stock like this with stop below the 61.8%, you can go net free (return of original equity) by selling however many shares are needed to get your original money back at the previous high around $2.25 which should reject at first try (as it is the most likely landing spot for Wave 1 inside of Wave (3). Once a higher low forms from there (Wave 2 of (3)) between $1.20 and $1.75, you could go in even harder, buying more shares, and moving your stop on all shares to that higher low, providing a very low risk scenario. By the time $4.25 is hit, you should be completely net free with plenty of shares left and maybe even take some good profits. Remember, this is an outline NOT A PREDICTION. That's why we have a stop, a plan, and multiple targets. As it plays out, we gain more clarity and update our outline. Probably even find a trend channel. This is Elliott Wave. This is Fibonacci Pinball (the creation of Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader,net). It's not telling you what's going to happen. It's telling you what could happen, laying out the most probable path, limiting your risk, and telling you when it might be wrong and how to pivot. And don't go thinking this will happen all at once. Keep good notes of your entry and all sales. This likely takes 1-3 years. Standard disclosures: 1. This is 100% my idea. It was not sourced from any other avenue. 2. I am not invested in this company, though I am likely buying shares soon. 3. I am not paid to post content nor do I receive any contributions of any kind. 4. While this is outlining a potential profitable setup, this article is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence on any company you invest in and apply your own trading strategies. 5. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this company. I suggest doing your due diligence if fundamentals are important to you. 6. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. 7. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the alternatives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. My analysis is purely educational.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:MATHEducation
by mazag08
1
What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It?What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It? The parabolic arc pattern is a significant formation in technical analysis, showcasing rapid, exponential price movements that signal significant bullish momentum followed by sharp reversals. This article delves into identifying, trading, and managing the risks associated with parabolic arcs. Understanding the Parabolic Arc Pattern The parabolic arc or parabolic curve is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential reversal. It is characterised by a steep, exponential rise in asset prices, followed by a sharp decline. Characteristics of the Parabolic Arc Pattern - Gradual Start: Initially, prices rise slowly and steadily. - Acceleration Phase: The price movement becomes more rapid, often driven by increasing speculation and market excitement. - Exhaustion Phase: Prices reach a peak where the upward momentum cannot be maintained, leading to a sharp downturn. This pattern can be seen across various markets, including stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies*, and commodities. It often occurs during speculative bubbles when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic. The pattern's unique shape makes it identifiable, but it requires careful analysis to distinguish it from other formations. The parabolic arc chart pattern has been observed in numerous historical market events. Notable examples include the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the Bitcoin surge in 2017. However, they can occur across all timeframes. If you find a parabolic curve on a low timeframe, it may look like a long bullish candle, typically closing near the highs, on a higher timeframe. The parabolic arc trading pattern is unique in that, unlike the head and shoulders or double top patterns, which have more symmetrical and predictable formations, the parabolic arc is asymmetrical with a steeper rise and a sudden drop. This distinct shape can offer valuable insights into market psychology and potential future movements. To identify your own parabolic arc chart patterns, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore a wide range of markets and trading tools. The Psychology Behind the Parabolic Arc Pattern The parabolic arc pattern is heavily influenced by market psychology, primarily driven by two emotional extremes: greed and fear. In the initial stages of the pattern, optimism and speculation dominate, causing prices to rise rapidly. This is often fueled by Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), where traders rush to buy, believing the price will continue to soar indefinitely. As prices climb steeply, the psychological effect intensifies, leading to more aggressive buying. This phase is characterised by euphoria, where rational analysis takes a back seat to the prevailing bullish sentiment. Investors and traders, seeing rapid gains, are convinced the rally is unbreakable, which propels prices even higher. Along the way, some traders will begin to take potential returns while others will enter short positions. This creates pullbacks or ranges within the bullish trend, sometimes called ‘bases,’ that move in a stair-stepping fashion. Generally speaking, there are often three or four bases in a parabolic trend, though there can be fewer or more. The break in the uptrend often prompts a new wave of euphoric buying, leading to another surge higher. However, this fast growth is unsustainable. Eventually, it reaches a tipping point where the exhaustion phase kicks in as early investors start to take potential returns, leading to a shift in sentiment. Fear sets in as prices begin to reverse sharply. The same emotional drivers that fueled the ascent—greed and FOMO—now contribute to panic selling and rapid price declines. In the same way a positive feedback loop drives euphoric buying, this negative feedback loop can cause traders to scramble for the exit door and prompt a sharp reversal almost as steep or steeper as the initial ascent. Identifying the Parabolic Arc Pattern Identifying the parabolic arc pattern in trading involves recognising a distinct, exponentially rising price trajectory. This pattern typically follows a period of sideways accumulation, where prices move horizontally with minimal fluctuation. The transition from this phase to a parabolic rise marks the start of the pattern. Key Characteristics A curved line can be drawn connecting the successive higher lows of the price action. This line's slope increases at an almost exponential rate, visually representing the accelerating price movement. The steepening of this curve is a hallmark of the parabolic arc, indicating increasing buying momentum. Volume Analysis Volume can play a critical role in identifying and confirming the parabolic arc pattern. As prices begin their rapid ascent, trading volume often surges, reflecting heightened market interest and speculative buying. The constant increase in volume is crucial for validating the strength and sustainability of the pattern. A significant rise in volume during the parabolic phase suggests strong participation from traders, further driving prices upward. Technical Indicators The Parabolic SAR indicator is a valuable tool for identifying parabolic arc patterns. This indicator places dots above or below the price, signalling potential reversal points. During a parabolic rise, the Parabolic SAR dots will trail below the price, confirming the uptrend. While short-term corrections in the parabolic ascent will plot dots above the price, there will typically be fewer dots vs those below the price. As the pattern approaches its peak and the price movement starts to decelerate, dots will also begin to appear above the price, indicating a potential correction. However, while there may have been only a few dots above the price during the parabolic movement, there will likely be a greater number of dots above the price as the trend begins to cool, as seen in the chart above. It’s important to note that this can be a visual cue that the parabolic trend is ending, but the lagging nature of the Parabolic SAR indicator means that it comes with a significant delay. It’s best used as confirmation of a parabolic trend or reversal rather than a sole indicator of a parabolic ascent. Trading the Parabolic Curve Chart Pattern The parabolic curve chart pattern is a powerful yet risky formation. As buyers are in complete control, leading to a strong bullish trend, it’s unclear when the trend reverses as traditional momentum indicators like RSI can indicate overbought conditions, often giving false signals. A parabolic curve trading strategy involves two main focal points: buying the uptrend and shorting the reversal. Buying the Uptrend Trading the uptrend of a parabolic arc can be highly rewarding, but it's also fraught with risk. The bullish trend is strong, and buyers dominate the market, making it challenging to determine an optimal entry point. Therefore, traders often use shorter timeframes. Typically, the risk-reward payoff might not be favourable as traders are effectively buying high with the aim of selling higher. According to the theory, it’s best to avoid entering trades when the ascent is near vertical due to the high probability of a sharp reversal. This is a shorter timeframe of the Carvana stock. Early Entry Points Traders often look to get involved in the early stages of the parabolic arc, typically after a breakout from a sideways accumulation phase. During this phase, the price may follow a stair-stepping pattern, making it more probable the uptrend will continue. Waiting for a Pullback Another strategy involves waiting for a pullback in the strong trend. Traders might look for such signals as the price reaching a previous resistance point that now acts as support or the RSI on a lower timeframe showing oversold conditions. Setting a buy stop at the high of the pullback with a stop loss below the low allows traders to participate in the breakout and subsequent legs higher. Taking Profits Taking profits during a parabolic arc can be challenging. Traders could scale out, closing portions of their position at set intervals or risk-reward ratios. Another method is using significant resistance areas or round numbers as targets. Additionally, trailing a stop below the lows that form along the way can help in capturing gains while potentially protecting against a sudden reversal​. Shorting the Reversal Shorting a parabolic arc requires waiting for clear signs that the trend is reversing. This approach can be more effective but also demands precision and patience. Identifying Reversal Signals Key signals for a trend reversal include the price beginning to move near-vertically before closing below the parabolic curve trendline. Other indicators are long bearish wicks, gaps down (mostly in the case of a parabolic stock pattern), and lower lows being created. Monitoring market sentiment can also provide clues; for instance, Alternative.me’s crypto* fear and greed index and CNN's stock fear and greed index can indicate an impending reversal in these assets when they show extreme greed. However, a close outside the curve’s trendline is ultimately seen as the key signal. Once traders suspect a reversal, they typically enter a short position with a market order, setting a stop loss above the recent high. Taking Profits According to theory, profit-taking strategies for short positions include targeting significant support areas that previously acted as resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels, typically the 0.382 to 0.786 levels, are commonly used for setting profit targets. Specifically, parabolic ascents usually precede a sharp reversal, meaning they often correct beyond 0.5 (i.e., a 50% correction), falling between 0.618 and 0.786. Similar to long positions, trailing the stop may help capture more of the downward move. Challenges and Risks Associated with Parabolic Curve Trading Trading parabolic curves comes with significant challenges and risks. The primary risk is the high probability of a sharp reversal, as the pattern's near-vertical ascent is unsustainable. This can lead to substantial losses if traders enter the market late or fail to manage their risk properly. Volatility Parabolic arcs are marked by extreme volatility. Rapid price increases can be followed by equally swift declines, making it difficult for traders to react timely. This volatility can lead to significant slippage, where orders are executed at prices different from those expected, especially if the catalyst is a notable news event. False Signals Indicators like the RSI, Stochastic, and MACD can signal overbought conditions prematurely. In a parabolic trend, these false signals can mislead traders into exiting positions too early or entering short trades too soon​. Psychological Factors The intense fear of missing out (FOMO) can drive irrational buying, inflating the asset price to unsustainable levels. Conversely, panic selling during the reversal can exacerbate losses. Managing emotions and maintaining discipline is crucial but challenging during such volatile phases. Risk Management Effective risk management is essential but difficult to implement in real-time. Setting appropriate stop-loss orders and profit targets can be tricky due to the rapid price movements​. However, it’s important to predetermine an exit strategy and stick to it. The Bottom Line Understanding and trading the parabolic arc can offer substantial opportunities, but this pattern also comes with significant risks. By recognising the pattern early and employing effective strategies, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. For a reliable trading experience, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you can access advanced tools and resources to navigate the complexities of parabolic arc trading. FAQs What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern in Trading? A parabolic arc is a chart pattern characterised by a rapid, accelerating price movement that forms a parabolic shape on a chart. This pattern typically indicates strong bullish momentum followed by a sharp reversal. The steep ascent often results from speculative buying, driven by investor enthusiasm or fear of missing out (FOMO)​. How to Trade Parabolic Arcs? Trading parabolic arcs involves two main strategies: buying the uptrend early and shorting the reversal. Traders look for early signs of the pattern forming after a sideways accumulation phase and avoid entering when the ascent is near vertical. Shorting typically occurs when clear reversal signals appear, such as a break below the parabolic trendline or significant bearish indicators. What Is a Parabolic Arc Stock Pattern? A parabolic arc stock pattern is a specific formation observed in stock charts where the stock price rises steeply, forming a parabolic shape. This pattern often results from intense speculative buying and is followed by a dramatic price correction. It's common in high-momentum stocks and reflects significant shifts in market sentiment​. How to Use Parabolic SAR in Forex Trading? The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is used in forex trading to identify potential reversals in the market. It places dots above or below the price to signal the direction of the trend. Traders use it to set trailing stop-losses and identify entry or exit points during strong trends. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:CVNAEducation
by FXOpen
2
2 Day Anchored VWAP on ES futuresInitially you have to understand what the volume weighted average price (VWAP) is. Broadly it can be defined as: Total dollars traded divided by the total shares for the period studied Vwap= ∑(Price∙Volume)/∑(Volume) This means that VWAP is more responsive to volume than price and its calculation does not depend on the timeframe we are in. It is also the most common benchmark used to compute transaction costs. what is the anchored VWAP ? The AVWAP is an indication of the average transaction price of the participants for however long it’s plotted. Normally the VWAP resets everyday at the start of the trading session, but the anchored vwap will continue its calculations from the candle it was anchored until the present bar meaning no resets in that period. In an uptrend buyers will try to defend that average entry price when price comes back to it. in the uptrend when the AVWAP is below price that means that the average participant is making money, when price crosses under they start to lose money and that could lead them to try to exit and push price even lower. So the cross of the AVWAP can mark a change on the near term trend. It is very important to mark the AVWAP from significant price levels or catalysts, in this case we will analyze the 2 Day anchored VWAP (2DAVWAP) on CME_MINI:ES1! futures. Where do you anchor the 2DAVWAP ? For example, if it's a wednesday morning you want to anchor the VWAP at monday 5pm CME_MINI:ES1! futures open. An easy way of finding the right candle to anchor is checking the "session breaks" option in the chart settings so after your session break line shows the next candle (in any timeframe) that will be the one anchored so you can trade it at the next session. How to trade it ? 1. It is very important that CME_MINI:ES1! is in a clear and strong uptrend, this is a following the trend strategy. It can also be used in downtrends but backtesting it has proven to me that long setups are the best setups. If CME_MINI:ES1! has been uptrending and then starts consolidating but starts to move up from a good support level you can also enter a setup on that market context. 2. Anchor the VWAP from the session open and wait until next day. 3. Wait until price retraces to the 2DAVWAP the next day. It only works when the retracement happens the next day, don't trade that anchored VWAP further than that. 2. Watch the price action - Volume when it reaches the AVWAP. Price action and volume should Show an effort of buyers to continue the trend, Candle should reach the 2DAVWAP and form a hammer candlestick closing above the AVWAP in the 15 min TF (best entry point, wait for candle close). 3. Mark the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from previous day low to the present day high. The lowest price can go for you to still consider entering the trade is the 50% retracement, lower than that you dismiss the trade. Go with confidence if there is a confluence between fib and the 2DAVWAP. 4. Set a Stop loss based on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is always try to enter the closest to were you would be wrong in a trade, which can be below the 50% retracement for example. 5. Set a Target profit based on maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is try to exit at least at previous highs if there is volatility on the day. Finally, the entry could be at any time of the day, it could happen at 2 am EST or it could happen at 10 am EST, it really does not matter. Always take trading seriously, stay discipline and do your own backtesting and find what works the best for you. I will be posting more educational posts on AVWAP. This strategy has only been backtested in CME_MINI:ES1! futures.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FTWTraders
How to Use Exponential Moving Averages?The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is one of the most popular technical indicators for traders, known for its sensitivity to recent price changes and ability to reveal trends in real-time. This is certainly not a 100% grail or a super indicator! But I would recommend not to ignore EMA during backtests What is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)? The EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, allowing it to react faster to price changes compared to the SMA. This quality makes EMA especially valuable in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies, forex, and stocks. Typically, traders use the EMA to smooth price data, making it easier to spot trends and reversals. Key EMA Timeframes: Short-Term: 10-20 EMA (for quick trades and scalping) Medium-Term: 50 EMA (commonly used to gauge trend direction) Long-Term: 100-200 EMA (used to assess overall market sentiment) Why Use EMA in Trading? The EMA helps traders identify the trend direction, evaluate market momentum, and recognize possible reversal points. Because the EMA adjusts quickly to price changes, it is effective for day trading, intraday trading, and even longer-term investing. Its responsiveness is particularly useful for: Trend Confirmation: The EMA helps traders confirm if a trend is upward or downward. Multiple EMAs used in combination can highlight potential crossovers that signal trend shifts. Entry and Exit Signals: EMA crossovers and support/resistance levels can serve as effective entry and exit points. Momentum Assessment: Short-term EMAs provide insight into current momentum, while longer-term EMAs reveal broader market sentiment. Pros and Cons of Using EMA in Trading Pros: Reactiveness: EMA adjusts quickly to new price movements, helping identify trends sooner than SMA. Versatility: Suitable for various timeframes, from scalping to swing trading. Clear Signals: Effective in trending markets for capturing entry and exit points. Cons: Sensitivity to Noise: EMA is more susceptible to market “noise” or erratic price swings, leading to potential false signals in choppy markets. Not Ideal for Ranging Markets: EMA is less effective in sideways or consolidating markets. Tips for Trading with EMA Use EMA in Trending Markets: EMA performs best when there is a clear trend. In ranging markets, signals are less reliable. Combine EMA with Other Indicators: Use indicators like RSI or MACD to confirm EMA signals and reduce the chances of false breakouts. Stick to Risk Management Rules: EMAs, while effective, are not foolproof. Always set stop-loss levels and use proper position sizing to manage risk effectively. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
2
8313-Rasan-Long BullishBuy-67-74.8 SL:- 65 DCB 1st Tgt-93 2Nd Tgt:99 Company posted Good result with Operating profit increase of 98% Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
8Education
by khanrashid80
BTC Dominance explained - Impact on Altcoins and Market CyclesBTC Dominance Explained 📊 – Impact on Altcoins and Market Cycles Understanding Bitcoin dominance is crucial for navigating the crypto market, especially when planning moves with altcoins. Let’s dive into this BTC.D chart to get a clearer view of what BTC dominance signals and how it can shape your portfolio strategy. The BTC Dominance Range and Altcoin Opportunities 🌐 Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s market share relative to all cryptocurrencies. Currently, we’re moving within an upward channel, nearing a significant resistance at 59%. Historically, levels above 58% have been challenging for altcoins, as a strong BTC dominance means funds flow primarily into Bitcoin rather than altcoins. The higher this percentage, the more “BTC-centric” the market becomes. However, if BTC dominance reverses from this resistance, which the chart suggests as a possibility, it could open the door for altcoins to perform strongly. Key levels where altcoins tend to gain traction are around 54%, 50%, and ideally below 48%. Dropping to or below these levels is often where we see capital shifting into altcoins, allowing them to shine as BTC consolidates. Why BTC Dominance Matters for Ethereum and Other Alts 🚀 As noted in my recent Ethereum analysis, a breakout for ETH could coincide with a decrease in BTC dominance. Ethereum, currently flirting with a big breakout level around $2,800, could see significant upward movement if BTC dominance declines. The fundamentals of ETH are also aligning with this technical picture, setting up a favorable environment for Ethereum to absorb some of Bitcoin’s market share. How to Use BTC Dominance in Your Trading Strategy 📉 When BTC Dominance Rises: High BTC dominance typically signals caution for altcoin investors. When dominance is around 58% or higher, the market is likely to favor BTC over other coins. This is a “BTC season,” where Bitcoin absorbs most of the inflow, leaving altcoins with reduced momentum. When BTC Dominance Declines: If BTC dominance drops below 54% and further towards 50%, it becomes “altcoin season,” a period where alts, especially high-cap projects like Ethereum, tend to outperform. Watch these support zones closely; they often indicate when BTC is overextended and funds may rotate into alts. Channel Boundaries for BTC Dominance: This channel on the 8-hour BTC.D chart shows BTC dominance’s cyclical nature. Every time dominance reaches the channel’s top, altcoins often benefit if BTC reverses. Conversely, approaching the bottom of the channel can signal potential BTC strength, drawing funds away from alts. Current Market Setup: Preparing for an Altcoin Move? We’re at a tipping point, with BTC dominance testing upper resistance. Should we see a reversal, we could enter a favorable phase for alts, particularly Ethereum, which is primed for a breakout. The combination of Ethereum’s strong technical position and the possibility of BTC dominance declining is a powerful signal for the alt market. By understanding and leveraging BTC dominance in your strategy, you can more effectively time your altcoin entries and exits, aligning with macro movements rather than just isolated setups. This cycle-driven approach is essential for maximizing gains across different market phases. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by FX_Professor
5
Why Nailing the Perfect Entry Won't Make You a Winning TraderWhen I first started trading, I spent an absurd amount of time obsessing over the “perfect entry.” I believed if I could just pinpoint the exact right moment to enter, my trades would take off like clockwork. I’d spot my pattern, line up my indicators, and wait for that split-second trigger. But as my journey evolved, I found that success in trading hinges far more on how you exit than on the entry itself. Aggressive Entries: Simple and Straightforward Let’s be clear—there is no “perfect entry,” no mythical timing trick that’ll guarantee success. Aggressive entries, for example, are straightforward: you spot the trigger candle, recognize the pattern, and take action at the close. That’s it. No endless analysis or hesitation, just decisive entry. This type of entry is powerful because it’s intentional, capturing the setup in real time rather than waiting for confirmation that could lead to a delayed entry. While aggressive entries get you in at an ideal price, focusing on entry alone doesn’t cover the full picture of trade management. Without a plan for managing the trade after entry, you’re just hoping the market follows through—and hope is not a strategy. Exits Matter More Than the Entry Successful traders don’t just focus on getting in; they put more thought into getting out. If the goal is to grow and protect capital, then exits are the difference between locking in profit or watching it evaporate. After countless hours in the market, I learned that getting the exit right, or at least having a disciplined exit plan, is what shapes your profit curve. For example, some traders aim for a certain percentage of profit or wait for the price to hit a key level. Others may use stop-loss strategies to protect gains by trailing the stop along the way. The exit strategy you choose is personal, but having one at all is non-negotiable. Think of it this way: without a solid exit plan, even a perfect entry is likely to unravel at some point. Practical Tips for Developing a Strong Exit Strategy Define Your Exit Before You Enter: Every trade should begin with a clearly defined exit plan. Before you even click “buy,” know exactly where you’ll exit for both a win and a loss. Setting realistic profit targets and stop losses not only protects you from over-trading but also keeps you focused on executing your plan. Set Alerts and Automate: Using tools like TradingView’s alert feature is a lifesaver. Alerts allow you to step away from the charts without stressing over every price movement. Let’s be real—the market can be a hypnotic place, and constantly watching it can lead to impulsive decisions. Set your alerts and detach; you don’t need to be glued to your screen for every tick. Use Incremental Exits: Instead of going all in or all out, consider taking partial profits at different stages of the move. For instance, you might exit half your position at a certain level and let the rest ride to maximize your gains. This approach allows you to capture profit while giving the remaining position room to potentially yield a larger win. Review and Refine Your Exits: One of the best ways to improve your exit strategy is to backtest it. Use TradingView’s replay feature to “replay” past market conditions and test out various exit strategies. This is invaluable as it gives you a chance to fine-tune your approach based on actual data, not just theoretical setups. Create Realistic Expectations: The reality of trading is that the market doesn’t always move according to plan. Stay flexible. Some trades might require a quick exit, while others might reward you for holding on. Don’t be afraid to adapt based on the conditions and price action unfolding in front of you. Why Traders Fail Without an Exit Plan For many traders, focusing solely on entries becomes a crutch. They mistakenly believe that if they just find the right entry, the trade will manage itself. But the market is unpredictable. Even the best entry can’t secure a win if the trader doesn’t know how to get out. The hard truth is, obsessing over entries often masks a lack of strategy or confidence in the bigger picture. I’ve seen traders who hit excellent entries repeatedly, but without disciplined exits, they end up handing their profits back to the market. Don’t let your gains evaporate because you didn’t think about your way out. Trading Success Is Built on Execution, Not Perfection In the end, what separates successful traders from the rest isn’t a “perfect entry.” It’s a systematic approach to execution. The best traders don’t need flawless timing—they need consistency, discipline, and a clear plan that includes both entries and exits. So, next time you’re studying a chart, ask yourself not just “Where would I enter?” but also, “Where and how would I exit?” It’s the exit, not the entry, that ultimately decides how much you keep—or give back—to the market. So, how do you handle exits? Are you still chasing perfect entries, or have you found a balance? Share your strategy below—your insights might be just what another trader needs.
Education
by TLTurnerTV
SWING TUTORIAL - ICICIPRULIIn this tutorial, we analyze the stock NSE:ICICIPRULI (ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited) identifying a lucrative swing trading opportunity following its all-time high in Sep 2021. The stock declined by nearly 50%, forming a Lower Low Price Action Pattern, but subsequently reversed its trend. At the same time, we can also observe the MACD Level making a contradictory Pattern of Higher Lows. This Higher Low Pattern of the MACD signaled the start of a Bullish Momentum, thereby also signaling a good Buying Opportunity. The trading strategy yielded approximately 88% returns in 71 weeks. Technical analysis concepts used included price action analysis, MACD, momentum reversal, trend analysis and chart patterns. The MACD crossover served as the Entry Point, with the stock rising to its Swing High Levels of 724 and serving as our Exit too. As of wiring this tutorial, we can also notice how the stock is making a breakout and retest of the Swing High levels and trying to continue its momentum further upward trying to make a new All Time High. KEY OBSERVATIONS: 1. Momentum Reversal: The stock's price action shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend, indicating a potential reversal. 2. MACD Indicator: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line showed steady upward momentum, signaling increasing bullish pressure. 3. MACD Crossover: The successful crossover in March 2023 confirmed the bullish trend, creating an entry opportunity. TRADING STRATEGY AND RESULTS: 1. Entry Point: MACD crossover in March 2023. 2. Exit Point: Swing High Levels - 724. 3. Return: Approximately 88%. 4. Trade Duration: 71 weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CONCEPTS USED: 1. Price Action Analysis 2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) 3. Momentum Reversal 4. Trend Analysis 5. Chart Patterns NOTE: This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining technical indicators to identify bullish momentum. By recognizing Price Action, MACD movements, and Reversal patterns, traders can pinpoint potential entry and exit points. Would you like to explore more technical analysis concepts or case studies? Share your feedback and suggestions in the comments section below.
NSE:ICICIPRULIEducation
by thepranam
How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart. I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips. First, let's start with a definition of a key level. Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart, from where a significant price movement initiated. Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks. Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame. I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick. Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances . We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there. Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick. From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected. Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports. We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there. That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily. From a key support level a bullish movement is expected. Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters. Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame. These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster. 3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other. With time, the market tends to break key levels. If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level. Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart. After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance. If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level. Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support. Key levels tend to lose their significance with time. Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level. The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past. However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance. Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame. But key levels are not equal in their significance. Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames. On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold. While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame. Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures. Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger. In comparison to support and resistance areas, key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from. Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level, simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance. You will have a very good reward to risk ratio. Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold. No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Mastering Fibonacci ChannelsFibonacci Channel: A Tool for Identifying Potential Trend Levels The Fibonacci Channel is a powerful technical analysis tool that advanced traders use to identify potential support and resistance levels within a trend. This tool is particularly useful in trending markets, such as Forex and equities, to gauge price movement and pinpoint strategic entry and exit points. The Fibonacci Channel consists of a series of parallel lines plotted using Fibonacci ratios (such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.). These lines help traders mark key areas within a price trend that could indicate a potential reversal or continuation. How to Use the Fibonacci Channel 1. Identify Start and End Points: Begin by identifying the start and end points of a trend that you want to analyze. 2. Draw the Channel Lines: Next, draw a trendline between the two points. The Fibonacci levels are then plotted as parallel lines above and below this trendline, helping traders visualize potential levels for price to reach or retrace. 3. Interpret the Lines: The plotted Fibonacci levels act as potential areas of support and resistance, providing traders with strategic points for entry or exit. For example, price movement reaching the 0.618 level often suggests a high probability of either reversal or trend continuation. Using the Fibonacci Channel allows you to take advantage of market psychology embedded in these ratios, helping you make more informed decisions in a trend-driven market.
Education
by habib75rajabi
Gold Trading- How to Avoid false breaks- 3 simple tipsIf you’ve been trading long enough, you know the rush of seeing a big bullish breakout. Those massive green candles make it tempting to jump in immediately, fearing you might miss the move. But if you’ve experienced a few of these moves reversing sharply, you also know the sting of buying at the top. False breakouts—when price appears to break out but quickly reverses—can be frustrating. You can’t avoid them entirely, but using a few smart strategies can help reduce the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of a trade. Let’s dive into key strategies for breakout trading, including buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend. 1. Don’t “Chase” the Markets When the market suddenly surges higher with multiple big bullish candles, the temptation to enter is strong. This move can make it feel like you’ll miss out if you don’t buy immediately. But in most cases, strong moves like this mean the market is likely due for a pullback. In an uptrend, these fast, high candles can often reverse or slow down, leaving those who bought at the high with losses. Pro Tip: If you spot three or more large bullish candles in a row, it’s usually too late to enter. Waiting for a pullback (which we’ll discuss soon) is often the safer approach. 2. Trade with the Trend: Buy Dips in an Uptrend and Sell Rallies in a Downtrend One of the most effective strategies for avoiding false breakouts is trading with the trend. Here’s the basic principle: In an Uptrend: Buy dips. When the market is trending upward, buying during short-term pullbacks is often a better strategy than buying during strong rallies. This approach allows you to get in at a lower price, reducing the risk of buying at the high. Example: Suppose the market is moving steadily upward but experiences brief pullbacks to a support level. This is an ideal opportunity to buy, as it aligns with the trend's direction without chasing after a breakout that could reverse. In a Downtrend: Sell rallies. During a downtrend, the market will often move lower, but with periodic upswings. These rallies are temporary and typically followed by further downward moves. Selling during these rallies can help you align with the downtrend while avoiding the risk of a sudden reversal. This buy-dip, sell-rally strategy aligns your trades with the overall market direction, minimizing the chances of getting caught in short-lived breakouts. 3. Look for a Buildup Before Entering a Breakout Trade One key strategy to avoid false breakouts is waiting for a buildup near a key resistance or support level. A buildup is a tight consolidation (or a “squeeze”) pattern that suggests the market is coiling up energy to make a sustained move in one direction. Here’s how it helps: Buildup at Resistance: If an uptrend is approaching a resistance level, a buildup (narrow price range) near that level often indicates strong buying pressure. It suggests that sellers are struggling to push prices lower, increasing the likelihood of a successful breakout above resistance. Stop Loss Placement: If the price breaks out from a buildup, you can use the low of the buildup as a stop-loss point. This gives you a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio because if the breakout is genuine, it’s unlikely to fall below the buildup low. Pro Tip: Patience is key. Wait for the buildup pattern to appear near resistance in an uptrend or support in a downtrend before taking a breakout trade. This approach is particularly useful when combined with buying dips in an uptrend or selling rallies in a downtrend. Very recent example (yesterday): Summary: Strategies for Breakout Trading and Trend Alignment To avoid getting caught in false breakouts, follow these steps: - Don’t chase big moves after three or more bullish or bearish candles. - Align with the trend by buying dips in uptrends and selling rallies in downtrends. - Use buildup patterns to time your entries, placing stop losses below the buildup for better risk management. By focusing on trend alignment, buildup patterns, and avoiding the urge to chase, you’ll find yourself in stronger positions and with greater control over your risk in the market. These strategies can help you catch trend-following breakouts without falling prey to the frequent traps that catch traders off guard.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
The Art of War for Traders: Sun Tzu's Timeless Lessons on MarketI recently revisited "The Art of War by Sun Tzu", and I was struck by how directly its timeless wisdom applies to the world of trading. Written over 2,500 years ago, this classic on strategy offers lessons every trader—from beginners to seasoned pros—can apply in the markets to improve discipline, timing, and decision-making. The Art of War is often seen as a manual for military generals, but its insights go far beyond the battlefield. Sun Tzu’s advice on strategy, patience, and self-discipline is surprisingly relevant for traders. In many ways, trading is a battle—one fought not only with the market but also with our own emotions and impulses. Here are some key takeaways from The Art of War and how they can help elevate your trading game. 1. Know Your Enemy and Know Yourself Sun Tzu’s advice, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles,” is invaluable in trading. For traders, the “enemy” is the market itself, filled with unpredictable movements, different participants, and countless psychological traps. But perhaps the most important part is knowing yourself—your strengths, weaknesses, risk tolerance, and emotional triggers. Trading Insight: Self-awareness is crucial for consistent success. By understanding your own psychology, you can prevent impulsive decisions, recognize patterns in your behavior, and develop a trading plan that works in harmony with your strengths. The better you know yourself, the better you can handle whatever the market throws at you. 2. Strategize Rigorously, But Act Flexibly Sun Tzu stresses the need for detailed planning but also emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing conditions. In trading, a plan is essential—it gives you structure and discipline. But markets are fluid and can shift without warning, meaning flexibility is equally important. Trading Insight: Create a well-defined trading plan that includes entry and exit strategies, position sizing, and risk management. At the same time, be ready to adapt if the market changes direction. Many successful traders know that the best plan is one that’s firm yet flexible, allowing for adjustments as new data comes in. 3. Timing is Key Patience and timing are central to Sun Tzu’s teachings. He emphasizes waiting for the perfect moment to strike. In trading, this principle cannot be overstated. Good timing separates profitable trades from losses; a premature entry or exit can wipe out gains or magnify losses. Trading Insight: Success in trading often comes from waiting for high-probability setups, rather than forcing trades when conditions aren’t ideal. The best opportunities require patience. Rather than feeling pressured to trade constantly, seasoned traders know that waiting for the right conditions is a form of discipline that pays off over time. 4. Position Yourself Wisely Positioning is at the core of The Art of War. Sun Tzu advises placing troops in positions of strength, not vulnerability, which translates directly to trading. Positioning wisely means knowing where to enter and exit, as well as how much risk to take on any trade. Trading Insight: Position sizing and strategic entry/exit points are essential for managing risk. Set stop-losses to guard against heavy losses and choose setups where you have a statistical edge. Success comes from positioning yourself to gain while limiting potential losses—whether you’re a day trader or a long-term investor. 5. Discipline and Self-Control Sun Tzu repeatedly emphasizes the importance of discipline and self-restraint. A general who cannot control himself will struggle to control his troops, and the same goes for traders. Without discipline, a trading plan is just words on paper. Trading Insight: In trading, self-discipline means sticking to your plan, managing your risk, and resisting impulsive decisions driven by emotions. This is a skill that separates successful traders from those who struggle. Discipline keeps you from chasing trades, overtrading, or taking unnecessary risks. It’s the backbone of consistency. 6. Exploit Market Weaknesses and Protect Your Own Sun Tzu teaches the value of observing and exploiting the weaknesses in the enemy while concealing your own. In trading, this might mean identifying overbought or oversold conditions, weak trends, or moments of market irrationality. Trading Insight: Recognize when the market is at extremes and leverage these moments for high-probability setups. At the same time, protect your portfolio by diversifying and using stop-losses, ensuring that if a trade doesn’t work out, it doesn’t do significant damage. Trade with your strengths and protect against your weaknesses. 7. Beware of Deception and False Signals One of Sun Tzu’s core principles is the use of deception, creating the illusion of weakness or strength. Markets can often create similar illusions through false breakouts, price manipulations, and fakeouts, which can easily lead to poor decisions. Trading Insight: Avoid falling for obvious “traps” in the market. False breakouts and fake signals are common, especially in highly volatile markets. Experienced traders look beyond surface movements and analyze underlying trends to verify signals. Being cautious and vigilant can prevent costly mistakes. 8. Use Resources Efficiently Sun Tzu cautions against prolonged battles that drain resources and morale. In trading, this equates to overtrading or letting emotions lead to excessive losses. Trading Insight: Efficiently allocate your capital and avoid trading more than necessary. Protecting your capital allows you to stay in the game for the long run. If a trade setup doesn’t meet your criteria, move on. Wasting resources on low-quality trades is like fighting unnecessary battles. 9. Calculated Risk and Risk Management Sun Tzu emphasizes knowing when to engage and when to hold back. For traders, this is the heart of risk management. Taking calculated risks is essential for capturing profits, but knowing when to step away is just as important. Trading Insight: Risk management is fundamental to long-term success. Use tools like stop-losses, position sizing, and risk-to-reward ratios to control losses. Accept that not every trade will be a winner and cut your losses when needed. This protects your capital and keeps you from getting overly attached to individual trades. 10. Seize Opportunities with Confidence Sun Tzu believes in the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise. In trading, this means acting decisively when a setup aligns with your strategy and conditions are favorable. Trading Insight: Hesitating can lead to missed opportunities, while decisive action—grounded in a solid strategy—can yield significant profits. When the conditions align with your analysis, trust your instincts and execute your plan. The ability to recognize and seize opportunities is what distinguishes successful traders from the rest. The Art of War has taught me that trading, much like warfare, is a game of patience, discipline, and strategy. Sun Tzu’s principles remind us that success doesn’t come from battling the market but from managing our responses to it. Every trade is a test of how well you can plan, adapt, and stay disciplined under pressure. As you navigate the markets, remember Sun Tzu’s timeless advice. Approach trading as a strategist would approach battle—prepare thoroughly, act wisely, and remain adaptable. Success in trading is not just about making profits; it’s about managing yourself, seizing opportunities, and protecting your resources for the long run. Let me know your thoughts below
Education
by TheFxAce
5
What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy?What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy? The concept of petrodollars is an insightful topic to study. The petrodollar isn’t a specific currency but a financial system that reflects economic and political forces that have shaped international relations for decades. This concept is critical to understanding global trade dynamics and geopolitical strategies. Petrodollar: Definition and Origins A petrodollar refers to the US dollars earned by oil-exporting countries through the sale of oil to other nations. The term gained fame in the 1970s, a period marked by significant changes in the global economic landscape, particularly concerning energy resources and currency stability. Historical Context The petrodollar system received a significant boost in development as a result of economic necessity and geopolitical strategy during the turbulent 1970s. Key historical events, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the 1973 oil crisis, and the US–Saudi agreement, set the stage for the creation of the term ‘petrodollar’. These events emphasised the importance of securing stable economic fundamentals in the face of global uncertainty. Bretton Woods Agreement The Bretton Woods Agreement, established in 1944, created a system of fixed exchange rates anchored by the US dollar, which was convertible to gold. This system fostered post-war economic stability. The Bretton Woods Agreement led to the formation of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The system eventually collapsed in 1971 when President Richard M. Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold. This collapse left the global economy searching for a new anchor. 1973 Oil Crisis In 1973, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) declared an oil embargo against the US and other Western countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo prohibited oil exports to target countries and led to a reduction in oil production. The immediate impact was a sharp increase in oil prices. This crisis underscored the strategic importance of oil and prompted economic shifts. US–Saudi Agreement On 8th June 1974, Saudi Arabia entered into an agreement with the United States to accept dollars as the sole payment currency for its oil in exchange for the countries’ bilateral cooperation and US military support to the Saudi regime. This so-called ‘petrodollar agreement’ virtually pegged the value of the US dollar to global oil demand and ensured its continued dominance as the world’s main reserve currency. Mechanisms of the Petrodollar System The petrodollar system refers to the practice of trading oil in US dollars, as well as the broader arrangements that support it. Let’s see how it is manifested. Oil Purchases Global oil sales are predominantly in US dollars, regardless of the buyer or seller’s country. This practice means that countries buying oil must hold dollar reserves, which creates a constant global demand for dollars. This supports the currency’s value and gives the US significant influence over global financial markets. As a benefit, uniformity reduces currency risk and transaction costs. Oil Sales The settlement of oil transactions involves the transfer of dollars through international banking systems, although US banks are the most predominant. The US can exert economic pressure by restricting access to the dollar financial system, effectively imposing sanctions on countries. Recycling of Petrodollars Petrodollar “recycling” refers to the way oil-exporting countries utilise their oil revenue. These countries spend part of their oil revenues on foreign goods and services and save another portion as foreign assets. These assets can include deposits in foreign banks, bonds, and private equity investments. Ultimately, the foreign exchange earned by oil exporters from increased oil exports flows back into the global economy, hence the term “recycled.” Economic and Political Implications The petrodollar system has profound implications for the global economy and geopolitics. Global Trade and Geopolitics The petrodollar system standardises oil pricing, simplifies transactions, and reduces exchange rate risks for oil-importing countries, thereby facilitating smoother international trade flows. The petrodollar system cemented the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, along with other oil-producing nations, forming a strategic alliance that would influence global politics for decades. Oil-Exporting Countries Oil-exporting countries reinvest revenues into exploration, drilling, and infrastructure projects, boosting oil production and driving technological advancements. Additionally, petrodollars allow oil-exporting nations to invest in the domestic economy and stimulate domestic growth. US Economic Influence The petrodollar system increased global demand for the dollar, solidifying its status as the world’s primary reserve currency. Oil-exporting countries holding large reserves of US dollars invest them in US government securities, which support the US economy. The demand for US dollars maintains a favourable trade balance for the United States. Oil transactions increasing the global circulation of dollars support US exports. High dollar demand ensures ample liquidity in the forex market, making it the most widely traded currency. If you are interested in trading currencies such as the US dollar, explore popular USD pairs on the TickTrader platform. Criticisms and Challenges While the petrodollar provides economic and geopolitical advantages, it also exposes countries to a number of risks and challenges. Economic Disparities Critics argue that the petrodollar exacerbates global economic inequality. By concentrating economic power and benefits in the hands of a limited group of oil-exporting countries, it perpetuates inequality and prevents more equitable economic development. This concentration of wealth and influence often puts poorer countries at a disadvantage, as they find it difficult to compete on a world stage dominated by petrodollar transactions. Dependency and Vulnerability The petrodollar system also creates dependencies: 1. Oil-importing countries must maintain dollar reserves, potentially exposing their economies to changes in the USD rate. 2. Oil-exporting countries invest heavily in the US economy and financial instruments, making them vulnerable to economic fluctuations and potential restrictions by the US, such as sanctions. 3. The US economy profits from the capital inflows, as they help finance the federal budget and support economic growth. Reduced inflows may negatively impact the US economy. 4. Changes in geopolitical alliances, regional conflicts, and economic policies can impact the stability and future of the petrodollar system. The collapse of the petrodollar could have serious consequences for the US and global economy. Future of the Petrodollar The future of this system is uncertain, especially with the changing geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia has opted to terminate the 50-year petrodollar agreement with the US, and it expired on June 9, 2024, which was referred to as the end of the petrodollar in the news. This agreement has been the cornerstone of the petrodollar system, and its expiration marks a significant shift. It means that oil will be traded in multiple currencies, including the Chinese yuan, euro, yen, and potentially digital currencies like Bitcoin. These efforts reflect a growing desire to reduce dependency on the dollar and diversify economic risks. These changes may contribute to a more balanced global economic environment by weakening the influence of the dollar, creating a more multipolar currency system, and providing countries with greater financial autonomy. Another threat to the oil-US dollar system is that countries seek sustainable energy alternatives and new economic alliances emerge. In particular, the shift to renewable energy could reduce the world’s dependence on oil, thereby decreasing the centrality of the traditional energy system and the US dollar, causing a reassessment of the existing order. Final Thoughts The petrodollar, born out of historical necessity and strategic agreements, may no longer be a cornerstone of economics and geopolitics. As global energy and financial systems evolve, the role of the petrodollar has become the subject of critical analysis and debate, and the recent termination of the US–Saudi agreement is a prime example of the changing economic and geopolitical landscape. Changes may lead to revaluation of various currencies and market volatility. Those who are interested in catching market volatility and trading on news events, can open an FXOpen account and start trading various USD pairs. FAQ What Is the Petrodollar? The petrodollar is the name of the system that reflects US dollars earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to other countries. This term highlights the relationship between global oil sales and the US dollar. When Was the Petrodollar Created? The petrodollar concept was created in the mid-1970s. The turning point came in 1974 when the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement that oil prices would be set exclusively in US dollars. This agreement followed the collapse of the Bretton Woods System and the 1973 oil crisis. Why Is Oil Only Traded in Dollars? Currently, oil is not only traded in dollars. Some oil-exporting countries use their national currencies, and the euro and Chinese yuan may be widely used for oil trading in the near future. Oil was traded in dollars mainly because of the 1974 US-Saudi agreement. It created a standard currency for oil transactions and reduced exchange rate risks. But since the agreement was terminated in June 2024, other currencies may become more common in oil transactions. Is the US Dollar Backed by Oil? No, the US dollar is not backed by oil. Since the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1971, no physical commodity has backed the dollar. However, the petrodollar system creates a close link between the dollar and the global oil trade, maintaining the value of the dollar through constant demand for it in international markets. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDEducation
by FXOpen
2