Buybacks vs. Dark Pool RotationThis lesson is about understanding the dynamics behind corporate buybacks. Sell-Side Institutions, aka the Banks of Record, have their floor traders do the actual buying of shares on behalf of the corporation. However, the Dark Pools, meaning the Buy-Side Institutions, start selling as the buybacks are going on.
This training will help you enter a buyback sooner and exit with higher profits for swing trading. We'll study the NASDAQ:AAPL chart to identify buyback candlestick patterns and how to see when the Dark Pools are selling to lower inventory, which is called "rotation." You will also see how the TTAccum/Dist indicator works, and how I use this excellent, leading Hybrid Indicator to aid in my analysis.
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What is Divergence?Divergence in trading occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. This mismatch indicates that the momentum behind the price action may be weakening, often suggesting a potential reversal. By learning to spot divergence, traders can anticipate market changes, either as a reversal in trend (regular divergence) or a trend continuation (hidden divergence).
Types of Divergence
Regular Divergence
Hidden Divergence
1. Regular Divergence
Regular divergence is a classic form that suggests a potential trend reversal. It happens when the price action and an oscillator (like RSI or MACD) display conflicting information, often indicating that the current trend may be losing strength.
Types of Regular Divergence:
Bullish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the indicator makes higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside as the selling momentum weakens.
Bearish Regular Divergence: Occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the indicator forms lower highs. This indicates potential downside momentum, often preceding a downtrend.
How to Identify Regular Divergence:
Use an oscillator such as the RSI, MACD, or stochastic indicator.
Look for situations where the price action forms new highs or lows, while the oscillator forms opposite lows or highs.
Confirm the trend by observing the price trendlines to determine the type of regular divergence (bullish or bearish).
Trading Regular Divergence:
Bullish Regular Divergence: When you identify bullish regular divergence, consider entering a long position once the price shows signs of reversal, like a bullish engulfing candle or another bullish reversal pattern.
Bearish Regular Divergence: For bearish regular divergence, a short position may be taken once you confirm a bearish reversal pattern, such as a bearish engulfing candle or shooting star formation.
Example:
If the price of a stock is making higher highs but the RSI is making lower highs, this is a bearish regular divergence. You could consider shorting the asset or closing long positions as a precaution, anticipating a potential trend reversal.
2. Hidden Divergence
Hidden divergence indicates potential trend continuation. It suggests that although there may be a pullback, the primary trend will likely resume.
Types of Hidden Divergence:
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price forms higher lows, but the indicator makes lower lows. This pattern signals that the uptrend is likely to continue.
Bearish Hidden Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower highs, but the oscillator makes higher highs, indicating a potential continuation of a downtrend.
How to Identify Hidden Divergence:
Observe the trend direction of the price. Hidden divergence typically appears during pullbacks in a strong trend.
Use the oscillator (RSI, MACD, etc.) and compare the highs and lows formed by both the price and indicator.
Confirm the pattern: if the price and indicator form opposing highs or lows, it may indicate hidden divergence.
Trading Hidden Divergence:
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Enter a long position after identifying bullish hidden divergence, especially if the primary trend is upwards and the oscillator is showing a lower low.
Bearish Hidden Divergence: A short position can be considered when bearish hidden divergence is identified, and the primary trend is downwards, with the oscillator showing a higher high.
Example:
Suppose an asset’s price makes higher lows in an uptrend, but the RSI makes lower lows. This indicates bullish hidden divergence, suggesting that the pullback might end, and the uptrend is likely to continue. Enter a long position, placing a stop loss below the recent swing low to manage risk.
Indicators Used for Identifying Divergence
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures the strength and speed of price movement, making it ideal for identifying overbought and oversold conditions.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD tracks the difference between two moving averages of the price and can be used to detect shifts in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: This oscillator helps detect potential turning points by comparing the closing price to the range over a set period.
Each of these indicators helps identify divergence differently. For example:
If RSI or Stochastic is diverging from price action, it may indicate that momentum is waning.
MACD can be useful to spot both regular and hidden divergences, especially on larger timeframes.
How to Trade Divergence
Confirm Divergence: Use divergence to identify a potential reversal or continuation pattern, but confirm it with additional signals such as candlestick patterns or volume analysis.
Set Entry Points: Wait for a price action signal (e.g., a candlestick pattern) in the direction indicated by the divergence. A bullish divergence might signal a buying opportunity after a bullish candlestick, while a bearish divergence could indicate a selling opportunity after a bearish pattern.
Use Stop Loss Orders: Place a stop loss slightly below or above recent highs or lows to manage risk. For example, in bullish divergence, place a stop loss below the swing low to protect against downside risk.
Set Profit Targets: Use support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or moving averages to set profit targets.
Tips for Successful Divergence Trading
Combine with Other Indicators: Use moving averages or trendlines to confirm the overall trend direction.
Choose Longer Timeframes for Stronger Signals: Divergence on longer timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) tends to produce stronger signals than shorter timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or hourly).
Don’t Trade Divergence in Choppy Markets: Divergence is more effective in trending markets. Avoid using divergence in low-volume or range-bound conditions, as it could result in false signals.
Stay Aware of False Signals: Not all divergences result in profitable trades. Always use risk management tools, such as stop losses and position sizing, to minimize potential losses.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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My Most Used TradingView Hotkeys!Just wanted to highlight a few of my most-used TradingView hotkeys:
ALT + H: Horizontal line – Ideal for marking round numbers or mark tight support/resistance areas. For broader S&R zones, I often use the rectangle tool.
ALT + V: Vertical line – Rarely use it, it’s handy for highlighting specific dates below the chart.
ALT + T: Trendline – Provides quick access to one of the most essential tools for analyzing long-term stock movements.
[* ]ALT + I: Invert the chart – Probably the most interesting hotkey! If you find it challenging to take "SELL" setups or tend to prefer "BUY" ideas, flipping the chart can reveal a fresh perspective. If your bias remains unchanged after inverting, it may be a solid setup for you. This can help reduce psychological biases; sometimes, just viewing it from another angle makes all the difference.
ALT + S: Take a screenshot – An easy way to share your chart with friends or colleagues.
ALT + F: Fibonacci tool – I’m using it less often lately, but it’s still there when needed.
ALT + W: Add to watchlist – Quickly adds interesting charts to your watchlist.
ALT + A: Set an alert
SHIFT + CLICK: Measure tool – Instant access to measure distances or changes on the chart.
Hopefully, this helps save you a bit of time hunting for these tools. After all, time is money!
Regards,
Vaido
Understanding Forex CorrelationA Comprehensive Guide to Forex Pair Correlation Strategies
Forex correlation is a powerful tool that can help traders understand how currency pairs move in relation to each other. It’s an essential concept that, when used correctly, can improve risk management, enhance profits, and provide valuable insights into the behavior of different currency pairs.
The image you've provided breaks down key aspects of forex pair correlation, including positive correlation, negative correlation, and hedging strategies. In this article, we’ll dive deeper into what forex correlation is, how it works, and how you can use it to your advantage in your trading strategies.
What Is Forex Correlation?
Forex correlation refers to the relationship between the movements of two different currency pairs. When two currency pairs move in tandem or in opposite directions, they are said to be correlated. Correlation can be positive, where both pairs move in the same direction, or negative, where the pairs move in opposite directions.
Traders use correlation data to understand potential risks and opportunities. Understanding the relationships between currency pairs allows you to diversify your trades, hedge positions, or double down on strategies based on the expected movements of correlated pairs.
Types of Forex Correlations
1. Positive Correlation
When two currency pairs move in the same direction, they are said to have a positive correlation. For example, EUR/USD and GBP/USD often have a positive correlation because both pairs share the USD as the base currency, and they tend to respond similarly to events affecting the U.S. dollar.
Example of Positive Correlation: If EUR/USD is rising, GBP/USD is also likely to rise due to the influence of the U.S. dollar.
Strategy for Positive Correlation: Traders can use positive correlation to open the same-direction positions in both pairs to amplify gains. However, keep in mind that a highly correlated pair will also double your risk if the market moves against you.
2. Negative Correlation
When two currency pairs move in opposite directions, they are said to have a negative correlation. For instance, USD/JPY and EUR/USD often have a negative correlation. When the U.S. dollar strengthens against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), it may weaken against the euro (EUR/USD).
Example of Negative Correlation: If EUR/USD is rising, USD/JPY may be falling due to changes in the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Strategy for Negative Correlation: Traders can open opposite-direction positions in negatively correlated pairs to offset potential losses. For example, if you are long on USD/JPY and the trade turns against you, holding a short position in EUR/USD can help balance the loss.
How to Calculate Correlation
Correlation is typically measured on a scale from -1 to +1:
+1 means that two currency pairs are perfectly positively correlated. This means they will move in exactly the same direction at all times.
-1 means that two currency pairs are perfectly negatively correlated. This means they will always move in opposite directions.
0 means no correlation exists, meaning the pairs move independently of each other.
Many trading platforms provide correlation matrices or tools to help you understand the correlation between different pairs. These can be updated in real time or calculated over different time frames (daily, weekly, or monthly).
Why Forex Correlation Matters for Traders
Understanding forex correlation is crucial for several reasons:
1. Risk Management
By using correlation strategies, you can manage your risk more effectively. For example, if you have two highly correlated positions, you're effectively doubling your exposure to the same market conditions, which can increase risk. On the other hand, trading negatively correlated pairs can help reduce exposure to one-sided market movements.
2. Diversification
Forex correlation helps you diversify your portfolio by balancing positively and negatively correlated pairs. Proper diversification ensures that you aren’t overly exposed to one currency or market, providing better protection against volatile market movements.
3. Hedging Opportunities
As shown in the image, hedging with correlations allows traders to use correlated pairs to balance risk and protect investments. If one pair moves against you, a correlated position in another pair can help minimize the loss. This is a strategy that advanced traders often use during periods of high market uncertainty.
Using Forex Correlation Strategies
1. Hedging with Correlations
A popular strategy involves using negatively correlated pairs to hedge positions. Let’s say you have a long position in EUR/USD. You might take a short position in USD/CHF to reduce exposure to potential USD weakness. If the U.S. dollar weakens, your EUR/USD trade may incur a loss, but the short USD/CHF position can offset that loss.
2. Trading Positively Correlated Pairs
When trading positively correlated pairs, you can open same-direction positions to amplify gains. For instance, if you anticipate the U.S. dollar weakening and are bullish on both the euro and the British pound, you might go long on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. In this case, your profits could multiply if both trades move in your favor. However, this strategy also increases risk since losses would be compounded if the U.S. dollar strengthens instead.
3. Avoiding Over-Exposure
While correlation strategies can help increase profits or hedge risks, they can also lead to overexposure if not carefully managed. For example, trading multiple highly correlated pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD) simultaneously can result in taking on too much risk in a single direction, especially if the market turns against you.
To avoid overexposure:
Check correlation matrices regularly to understand current correlations.
Adjust trade sizes based on the degree of correlation between pairs.
Avoid trading multiple pairs that have a perfect or near-perfect correlation unless you are intentionally doubling down on a strategy.
When to Use Forex Correlation Strategies
During High Volatility: Correlation strategies are particularly useful when the market is volatile, and you want to either reduce your risk through hedging or amplify your profits by trading positively correlated pairs.
Economic News Events: Major news events often affect several currency pairs simultaneously. By understanding the correlations between pairs, you can plan for potential reactions and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Portfolio Balancing: Long-term traders can use forex correlations to balance their portfolios, ensuring they are not overly exposed to any single currency or market condition.
Conclusion
Forex correlation is an essential concept for traders seeking to manage risk, diversify portfolios, and maximize profits. By understanding how different currency pairs relate to each other, traders can build more robust strategies that leverage both positive and negative correlations.
Whether you're looking to hedge your positions, amplify your gains, or simply protect your investments, correlation strategies offer valuable tools for navigating the complex forex market. Be sure to incorporate correlation analysis into your overall trading plan to enhance your decision-making process and boost your chances of success in the forex market.
Happy trading!
Halloween Horror: Avoiding Common Trading MistakesAs Halloween approaches, it’s the perfect time to reflect on the common “frights” that can scare traders away from success. Just like ghosts and ghouls lurking in the shadows, trading mistakes can be sneaky and unexpected. This post will highlight some of the most common trading mistakes, drawing parallels with Halloween themes, and provide strategies for avoiding these pitfalls.
🎃Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
Many traders experience FOMO, which can lead to impulsive decisions, such as chasing after rapidly rising stocks or jumping into trades without proper analysis. This behavior often results in buying at peak prices and facing losses when the stock inevitably corrects.
Set Clear Entry and Exit Points: Establish specific criteria for entering and exiting trades to avoid emotional decisions.
Stick to Your Plan: Have a trading plan that includes risk management strategies. Review your plan regularly, especially in volatile market conditions.
👻 Overtrading
In an attempt to capitalize on every opportunity, some traders overtrade, leading to excessive fees, emotional fatigue, and ultimately poorer performance. Overtrading can resemble a Halloween party gone wild, with too many participants causing chaos.
Limit Your Trades: Set a maximum number of trades per week or month. Focus on quality over quantity.
Take Breaks: Allow yourself time away from the screen to recharge and refocus. This helps in making more rational decisions.
🕷️Ignoring Risk Management
Trading without proper risk management is akin to wandering through a haunted house without a flashlight. You’re likely to encounter unexpected dangers. Failing to set stop-loss orders or to size positions appropriately can lead to catastrophic losses.
Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Set stop-loss orders at a predetermined level to limit potential losses.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Spread your investments across different asset classes and sectors to mitigate risk.
👺 Emotional Trading
Trading decisions driven by emotions such as fear, greed, or panic can lead to disastrous results. Emotional trading is like letting a ghost dictate your path through a dark forest—it's unpredictable and often leads to mistakes.
Keep a Trading Journal: Document your trades, including the reasoning behind them and your emotional state at the time. This will help you identify patterns and triggers in your decision-making process.
Practice Mindfulness: Incorporate techniques like meditation or deep breathing to remain calm and focused during trading hours.
🦇Neglecting Research and Analysis
Many traders skip the crucial step of research and analysis, relying instead on tips or rumors—much like believing in urban legends without questioning their validity. This can lead to uninformed trades and unexpected losses.
Conduct Thorough Analysis: Use both technical and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions. Stay updated on market news and trends.
Leverage Trading Tools: Utilize platforms like TradingView to access charts, indicators, and community insights.
[b 🕸️Chasing Losses
After experiencing losses, some traders attempt to "revenge trade," trying to quickly recover their losses by taking high-risk trades. This often results in deeper losses and a vicious cycle of frustration.
Accept Losses as Part of Trading: Understand that losses are inevitable. Learn from them rather than trying to immediately recover.
Take a Step Back: If you find yourself in a negative trading streak, consider taking a break to reassess your strategies and mental state.
👽 Not Adapting to Market Conditions
The market is constantly changing, and clinging to outdated strategies can be dangerous. This is similar to wearing the same costume year after year—eventually, it becomes stale and ineffective.
Stay Flexible: Be willing to adapt your trading strategies based on current market conditions. Regularly review and refine your approach.
Educate Yourself: Continuously seek knowledge through courses, webinars, and market analysis to stay informed about new trends and strategies.
As the Halloween season creeps in, it’s time to face the spooky realities of trading! By identifying and confronting common trading frights, you can transform potential pitfalls into stepping stones for success. Remember, every trader encounters challenges, but preparation, discipline, and continuous learning are your best defenses against the ghouls of the market.
So, this Halloween, don’t let fear haunt your trading journey. Embrace the tricks of the trade, sharpen your skills, and turn those frights into fruitful opportunities! Here’s to a successful and spooktacular trading experience!🎃👻🕸️
MA Trading Strategies for Experienced TradersMA Trading Strategies for Experienced Traders
Despite their simplicity, moving average (MA) trading strategies remain popular with experienced traders looking to refine their market analysis. This article delves into various MA types and four advanced MA strategies, including moving average ribbons, envelopes, and channels, providing actionable insights to potentially boost trading performance.
Moving Average Indicators: Advanced Types
This is a short overview of moving averages (MAs). If you already know this, please scroll down and learn advanced types of MAs and comprehensive trading strategies.
Moving averages are fundamental tools used by traders to smooth out price data and identify trends. By averaging the price over a specified period, MAs help traders filter out the noise from random price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the underlying market direction.
Traders use moving averages in various ways, such as determining trend direction, identifying potential support and resistance levels, and confirming other technical indicators. They can also help in spotting reversals and momentum changes. Below are the most notable moving averages that traders can use to construct a strategy.
To see how each works, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform to explore every tool described here and a world of more than 1,200 trading tools.
Types of Moving Averages
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
- Overview: The SMA calculates the average of a selected range of prices, typically closing prices, over a specific period.
- Usage: SMA trading is straightforward. The Simple Moving Average helps traders identify the direction of the trend by smoothing out short-term fluctuations.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
- Overview: The EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to new information.
- Usage: It reacts more quickly to price changes than the SMA, which can be beneficial in fast-moving markets.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
- Overview: The WMA assigns different weights to data points, with the most recent prices typically given more importance.
- Usage: Like the EMA, it reduces lag but in a slightly different manner by linearly increasing the weight of each successive data point.
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
- Overview: The VWMA takes volume into account, giving more weight to price points with higher trading volumes.
- Usage: Useful in identifying price moves that are supported by high trading volumes, which can indicate stronger trends.
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- Overview: The HMA aims to improve smoothness and responsiveness to the latest data. It’s calculated using a combination of WMAs.
- Usage: Known for its responsiveness and reduced lag, making it a favourite for trend analysis.
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
- Overview: The ALMA uses a Gaussian distribution to smooth data, reducing lag and improving the reliability of signals.
- Usage: It's designed to provide a balance between smoothness and responsiveness.
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
- Overview: The VWAP calculation is based on volume and price. The indicator reflects the average price a security has traded at throughout the day.
- Usage: Widely used by institutional traders, VWAP helps determine the true average price of a security over a given period. It is crucial for understanding the market's intraday trend and for executing large orders efficiently without distorting the price.
Advanced Moving Average Indicators
Moving Average Ribbons
- Overview: This involves plotting multiple moving averages of different lengths on the same chart. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a popular example, using short-term and long-term MAs to analyse market behaviour.
- Usage: The spacing and interaction between these ribbons can indicate the strength and direction of a trend. Converging/tightening ribbons may signal a trend reversal while diverging/widening ribbons indicate a strong trend.
Moving Average Envelopes
- Overview: Envelopes consist of two bands plotted at a fixed percentage distance above and below a moving average (e.g., 2%).
- Usage: They help identify overbought and oversold conditions. Price movement outside the envelopes can indicate potential reversal points or the start of strong trends.
Moving Average Channels
- Overview: Channels are created by plotting a moving average of the highs and a moving average of the lows over a specified period.
- Usage: Traders use these channels to identify breakouts and confirm trends. Breakouts beyond the channel may signal the beginning of a new trend.
Four Advanced Moving Average Trading Strategies
Here are four advanced moving average trading strategies. You can test other settings to make the strategies more suitable for your trading approach and the timeframe you trade on.
Moving Average Ribbon Strategy
The Moving Average Ribbon Strategy leverages the Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) alongside the ADX to identify potential breakout points. This strategy works by observing the convergence and divergence of multiple MAs to pinpoint moments of price compression and subsequent breakout, enhanced by confirming the trend strength with the ADX.
Indicators Used
- Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA): This indicator uses a series of short-term and long-term moving averages. The short-term MAs are sensitive to recent price changes, while the long-term MAs help identify the overall trend.
- Average Directional Index (ADX): This measures the strength of a trend, with values above 20 indicating a strong trend.
Entry
- Traders typically look for the long-term MAs in the GMMA (red) to converge and tighten, indicating a compressed range.
- Then they look for the price to break away from the long-term MAs with a series of closes beyond the short-term MAs - below in the downturn and above in the uptrend. Ideally, these are strong closes with minimal wicks, but a series of candles in the projected direction suffice.
-The price should remain beyond both the short-term and long-term MAs.
- The ADX should be above 20 and rising, indicating strong trending conditions. It shouldn’t be stalling or declining. Sometimes, the ADX crosses above 20 after the price has moved beyond the long-term/short-term MAs; this is also valid.
- Once these criteria are met, traders enter with a market order.
Stop Loss
- Stop loss is commonly set beyond the long-term MAs. This provides a buffer against minor fluctuations and potentially protects against false breakouts.
Take Profit
- Profits might be taken at key support or resistance levels.
- Alternatively, traders might look for the price to close beyond the short-term MAs in the opposite direction (e.g., a bullish close above the MAs in a short trade).
- A trailing stop loss positioned beyond the long-term MAs can also be used to capture sustained trends while potentially protecting gains.
Moving Average Envelopes Strategy
The Moving Average Envelopes Strategy leverages the EMA envelopes to identify potential reversal points by examining price interactions with the upper and lower bands. When combined with RSI, this stock and forex moving average strategy helps traders pinpoint overbought and oversold conditions, offering a robust method for trading reversals.
Indicators Used:
- Moving Average Envelopes: Uses an exponential moving average (EMA) set to a length of 20. The envelope percentage is adjusted based on asset volatility: 0.25%-0.5% for forex and 1%-2% for stocks might be good starting points, with a lower percentage creating more frequent opportunities but with greater false signals and vice versa. It forms an upper and lower band alongside a central EMA, similar to Bollinger Bands.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Set to a standard length of 14, indicating overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30.
Entry
- Traders typically observe when the price crosses the moving average envelope bands, either upper or lower. Ideally, the price wicks through and then closes back inside the boundary, but sustained price action beyond these levels is also considered valid.
- The RSI should be above 70 for a potential short entry, indicating overbought conditions, or below 30 for a potential long entry, indicating oversold conditions.
- An entry might be made once the RSI crosses back into the normal range (between 70 and 30) and the price closes back inside of the bands.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are generally set beyond the most recent swing point to potentially provide a buffer against minor fluctuations.
Take Profit
Profits might be taken at multiple points:
- The centerline EMA, which acts as a mean reversion target. This is the smallest target, which may be insufficient when considering the risk/reward ratio.
- The opposite envelope bound, capitalising on the price's full range movement.
- Significant support or resistance levels, providing predefined exit points.
- When the RSI crosses into the opposite territory (e.g., from overbought to oversold), indicating a potential reversal in the opposite direction.
Strategy with Three MAs
The strategy with three MAs combines the Hull Moving Averages (HMA) with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to identify potential trading opportunities. This strategy leverages the smoothness and responsiveness of the HMA and the momentum indications provided by the CCI to capture effective trade entries and exits.
Indicators Used
- Hull Moving Averages (HMA): Three HMAs with lengths of 13, 36, and 100.
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI): A momentum-based oscillator set to a standard length of 20. The CCI measures the difference between the current price and its average over a given period.
Entry
- Traders look for the price to be above the 100-period HMA for long positions and below it for short positions.
- Simultaneously, the CCI should be above 100 for long entries, indicating strong upward momentum, and below -100 for short entries, indicating strong downward momentum.
- Traders then watch for the 13-period HMA to cross above the 36-period HMA for long positions or below it for short positions. It should ideally be the first crossover after the price moves above or below the 100-period HMA. Occasionally, the CCI may move above 100 or below -100 shortly after this crossover occurs rather than before.
- Once these criteria are met, they enter with a market order.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are typically set just beyond the 36-period HMA.
- Alternatively, traders may choose the 100-period EMA or a recent swing point.
Take Profit
- Profits might be taken once the price crosses back over the 100-period HMA, signalling a potential end to the current trend.
- Alternatively, traders may choose to take profits at significant support or resistance levels, providing predefined exit points based on market structure.
Moving Average Channel Strategy
The Moving Average Channel Strategy utilises the Moving Average Channel along with the Parabolic SAR and ADX to identify potential trading opportunities. This strategy helps traders capture breakouts by confirming trend strength and potential reversals, offering a robust approach to trading trending markets.
Indicators Used
- Moving Average Channel: Set to a length of 50, this channel uses the moving averages of the highs and lows to create two lines, forming a channel around the price.
- Parabolic SAR: An indicator that plots dots above or below the price to signal potential reversals.
- Average Directional Index (ADX): Measures the strength of a trend, with values above 20 indicating a strong trend.
Entry
- Traders look for the price to trade through the Moving Average Channel, either breaking from above to below (for a downtrend) or from below to above (for an uptrend), ideally with a series of strong candles.
- Simultaneously, the Parabolic SAR should plot dots above the price, indicating a bearish signal, and vice versa.
- The ADX should be above 20 and rising, not stalling or declining, confirming a strong and growing trend.
- All three signals (price breaking through the channel, Parabolic SAR, and ADX above 20 and rising) should occur relatively close to each other, typically within a few candles.
- Once all criteria are met, traders enter.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are typically set just beyond the Moving Average Channel or at a nearby swing point.
Take Profit
- Profits might be taken when the price closes back through the other side of the Moving Average Channel, signalling a potential trend reversal. In this scenario, there is a risk of missing a part of potential profits in the solid trend.
- Alternatively, traders might choose to take profits at significant support or resistance levels, providing predefined exit points based on market structure.
Best Practices for Using Moving Average Indicators
Moving average indicators are essential tools in technical analysis. Here are some best practices to maximise their effectiveness:
Choosing the Right Type
Selecting the appropriate type of moving average is crucial. For example, an EMA is more responsive to recent price changes, making it suitable for short-term trading, while an SMA may be better for long-term trend analysis.
Choosing Suitable Lengths
It’s best to use a combination of short-term and long-term moving averages to get a comprehensive view of the market. For instance, combining a 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving average can help in identifying both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends.
Experimenting
There are various moving average types beyond the well-known SMA and EMA, such as the Hull Moving Average (HMA), Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA), and more. Experimenting with different types can help you find the best fit for your MA strategy.
Combining with Other Analysis
You can potentially enhance your moving average strategy by combining it with other forms of analysis and indicators, such as those described in the strategies above. This will allow you to confirm signals and get a more comprehensive market picture.
Backtesting and Forward Testing
Before deploying any moving average strategy in real-time, traders typically backtest it with historical data to understand its performance under different market conditions. Then, when transitioning from backtesting to live trading, they forward test with a demo account to refine their strategy without risking real money.
Beware of False Signals
Moving average crossovers in choppy markets can generate false signals. Consider additional filters, such as trend confirmation from the ADX, to avoid whipsaws.
Following these best practices can help you effectively incorporate moving averages into your trading strategies, whether you're using a moving average crossover strategy or an EMA trading strategy.
The Bottom Line
Advanced moving average strategies can offer a route to potentially enhance your trading analysis and performance. As always, it’s best to experiment with different indicators and backtest strategies to find what works best. To start implementing these strategies, consider opening an FXOpen account. Use our robust tools and enjoy low commissions and tight spreads from 0.0 pips.
FAQs
How to Use Moving Averages?
Moving averages smooth out price data, helping to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels. Traders often use moving averages to determine trend direction, confirm breakouts, and identify reversals. Combining short-term and long-term moving averages provides a well-rounded market overview. For instance, a simple SMA strategy might see a trader watch for a crossover between a pair of long and short-term SMAs before entering.
What Is the Simple Moving Average?
The Simple Moving Average represents an asset’s average price over a specified period. It's a fundamental tool in trading, smoothing out fluctuations to highlight the underlying trend. An SMA trading strategy typically involves comparing SMAs of different lengths to identify crossovers and trend changes.
What Does EMA Stand For in Trading?
The EMA stands for the Exponential Moving Average. Unlike the SMA, the EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes. This responsiveness makes the EMA popular in strategies that require quick reaction to market movements, such as an EMA crossover strategy.
What Moving Average Should Be Used for Day Trading?
In moving averages for day trading, shorter periods like the 9 or 21 are often used due to their responsiveness to recent price changes. These shorter EMAs help day traders quickly identify trend direction and potential entry/exit points.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Trust is Earned: My Journey Toward Becoming a Responsible VendorIntroduction: Learning from Setbacks (and Sharing for Others on the Same Journey)
Everyone makes mistakes, and I have certainly made my fair share. I want to share my personal journey of learning from my past missteps on TradingView, my efforts to deeply understand the platform's guidelines, and my aspiration to become a responsible vendor, in the hope that others on the same journey can learn from it. This story is about the importance of compliance, transparency, and what it means to genuinely add value to a community of traders.
Disclaimer: I am a provider of technical indicators (all free at this point, but some will be paid in the future), This article is purely for informational & educational purposes for the greater community.
Mistakes and Realizations
I won’t shy away from admitting that I've faced temporary bans on TradingView. At first, I saw these bans as setbacks that were challenging and frustrating. But over time, I realized they were valuable opportunities to understand what it really means to contribute responsibly to this incredible platform. Those experiences prompted me to reflect on my actions and invest time in learning the rules that govern this community— not just to avoid future bans, but to truly align with the values of TradingView.
Areas of Growth and Mastery
To ensure my growth as both a script publisher and a prospective vendor, I focused on mastering three key areas that are critical for contributing meaningfully to TradingView:
Clear Communication and Respect for Moderators: One of the first things I learned was the importance of making my content clear and accessible to all traders. While I have always strived for originality and avoided plagiarism, I realized that clarity is just as crucial. Ensuring that my work is understandable helps others fully appreciate and benefit from the ideas I share. Additionally, I learned to respect and comply with moderator feedback, which has been instrumental in improving my content.
Creating Impactful and Original Contributions: I have always aimed to provide original and valuable content, but through my journey, I further educated myself on how to better meet community needs. Rather than simply reiterating existing ideas, it's essential to focus on creating content that directly helps traders understand or solve a specific issue. Ensuring that descriptions are clear and straightforward, offering immediate insights that traders can act upon, is critical to creating impactful content. Charts should be presented in a clean and informative manner, without making unrealistic claims about performance. Run away if someone promises to turn $500 into 5k overnight.
Building Trust Through Ethical and Transparent Practices: Unfortunately, there are many scammers out there, and many traders fall into traps buying so-called 'holy grail' tools that promise unrealistic returns. It's crucial to be aware of these pitfalls and ensure transparency and ethical practices are at the forefront. Although I’m not yet a vendor, I aspire to be one. This means understanding the expectations for providing quality tools and services. Honesty and ethical business practices are fundamental—it's not about making sales, but about building trust with the community. Being transparent and ensuring the tools are genuinely helpful to traders and investors without overpromising results goes a long way in building trust. Although I’m not yet a vendor, I aspire to be one. This means understanding the expectations for providing quality tools and services. Honesty and ethical business practices are fundamental—it's not about making sales, but about building trust with the community. Being transparent and ensuring the tools are genuinely helpful to traders and investors without overpromising results goes a long way in building trust. It is essential for every indicator and strategy, whether paid or free, to provide real value to traders and investors.
❖ Adding Value: Insights from Community Feedback
Through my journey, I also received feedback from moderators, which helped me understand how to align my contributions better with the expectations of TradingView. One key takeaway was that adding value to traders must be actionable, realistic, and grounded in the community's needs. It’s not enough to simply share insights or predictions; it’s about helping others make informed decisions, understanding the risks involved, and learning together.
It is crucial to emphasize honesty, respect for users, and the importance of providing value before expecting anything in return. This principle must become a core part of how contributions should be approached. Many of my scripts are available for free, and seeing traders use them and benefit from them has been incredibly rewarding.
✹ My Aspiration to Become a Responsible Vendor
Every vendor's goal must be to genuinely support traders by improving their strategies and decision-making through transparency, ethical practices, and adherence to guidelines. Building trust takes time, and I strive to align my offerings with TradingView's core values: respect for traders, adding true value, and fostering collaboration. My current focus is on refining my skills, publishing original content, and ensuring that every tool I create serves an educational purpose, genuinely helping traders navigate market complexities.
Conclusion: Earning Trust, One Step at a Time
The journey to becoming a responsible vendor is about more than just meeting requirements—it's about contributing to a community in a way that is genuine, transparent, and respectful. I am committed to continuing this journey, learning from past mistakes, and striving to add value every step of the way. Trust is earned, not given, and I’m ready to keep earning it.
Easy technical analysisTraders who have just started their work try to use more indicators in technical analysis and this makes them discouraged in their work and the analysis is boring for them. to find, we did the same thing in image B by several indicators, the result was almost the same, but in image A, we are more certain and it is easier to make a decision to trade, know that all indicators move with cash flow and you yourself You can recognize the direction of market flow earlier, so don't lose the way of correct analysis.
Watch Me Make $600,642 Backtesting in 20 MinutesMastering Backtesting with TradingView's Replay Feature: Your Target Practice for Trading Success
In the world of trading, practice makes perfect, and one of the best ways to hone your skills is through backtesting. TradingView’s replay feature serves as an invaluable tool for traders looking to test strategies, refine their skills, and improve their overall performance. Think of it as target practice—a way to simulate real market conditions without the pressure of live trading. This article will delve into how to effectively use the replay feature, challenge yourself, and why practice is essential for every trader.
The Power of Backtesting
Backtesting is the process of testing a trading strategy on historical data to determine its viability. It’s like a dress rehearsal for traders, allowing you to assess how a strategy would have performed in different market conditions. With TradingView’s replay feature, you can step back in time and play out the price movements of any market you choose.
Using TradingView's Replay Feature
Setting Up the Replay Feature:
Open TradingView and select the asset you want to backtest.
On the chart, locate the “Replay” button in the toolbar (usually represented by a play icon).
Click the button and select the date from which you want to start your replay. You can drag the slider to move through the historical data at your own pace.
Simulating Live Trading Conditions:
As the replay plays out, you can apply your trading strategy just as you would in real-time. Take note of price action, support and resistance levels, and your entry and exit points.
Use this opportunity to test different indicators and strategies, adjusting parameters as you see fit.
Documenting Your Trades:
Keep a journal of your trades during the replay. Note what worked, what didn’t, and any adjustments you made. This reflection is crucial for developing your trading skills.
Target Practice: Challenging Yourself
To truly benefit from backtesting with the replay feature, consider implementing challenges that simulate the pressure of live trading. Here are some ways to push yourself:
1. Risk Management Challenges:
Decide on a specific risk amount for each trade—say $1,000. After reaching a target profit, like $15,000, challenge yourself to avoid losing a predetermined amount, such as $2,500.
This mimics real-life scenarios where maintaining profits can be just as challenging as making them. It forces you to practice discipline and stick to your risk management rules.
2. Trade Frequency Goals:
Set a target for the number of trades you want to execute during the replay. For example, aim to make 10 trades in a single session. This encourages you to be decisive and consistent with your strategy.
3. Time Constraints:
Limit yourself to a specific time frame when executing trades. For instance, challenge yourself to make all trades within a 30-minute window during the replay. This helps you practice decision-making under pressure, enhancing your ability to react quickly in real-market situations.
The Importance of Practice for Traders
As traders, we must remember that consistent practice is key to mastery. The replay feature allows you to simulate different scenarios without the risk of real money, giving you the freedom to learn from your mistakes. Here’s why practice is crucial:
Building Confidence:
The more you practice your strategy in a controlled environment, the more confident you’ll become in your abilities. This confidence translates into more decisive actions when trading live.
Identifying Strengths and Weaknesses:
Regularly backtesting enables you to pinpoint areas where your strategy excels and where it falters. This awareness allows you to adapt and evolve your approach over time.
Understanding Market Dynamics:
Each market behaves differently. By practicing across various assets and timeframes, you’ll develop a deeper understanding of market dynamics, helping you make better-informed decisions.
TradingView’s replay feature is a powerful tool for backtesting and honing your trading strategies. By treating this process as target practice, you can simulate real trading scenarios, test your strategies, and build the skills necessary for successful trading. Don’t shy away from challenging yourself with risk management goals, trade frequency targets, and time constraints. Remember, consistent practice is the pathway to mastery, and with the right tools and mindset, you can elevate your trading game to new heights. So dive into that replay feature, test your strategies, and watch your trading skills flourish!
Building a Positive Mindset for Trading SuccessIn the world of trading, cultivating a positive mindset is essential for unlocking opportunities and maximizing potential outcomes. Positive thinking in trading involves recognizing prospects in every situation, learning from mistakes and setbacks, and nurturing a steadfast belief in your abilities and goals. Traders with a positive outlook tend to be more risk-averse while remaining open to growth, leading to more consistent profits. However, it’s crucial to approach risk strategically; unchecked optimism can lead to reckless decisions and financial losses. Thankfully, optimistic traders often find it easier to bounce back from errors, allowing them to maintain their focus in this challenging environment.
📍 Setting Yourself Up for Positive Trading
A constructive trading mindset facilitates learning and encourages the exploration of new strategies and techniques, promoting continuous improvement. Here are some effective strategies to set yourself up for success and cultivate a positive trading mindset
1. Articulate Goals and Strategies Positively: Frame your objectives with a positive spin. For instance, instead of saying, “I don’t want to lose money,” rephrase it as, “I aim to grow my wealth.” Rather than expressing fear about taking risks, remind yourself, “I possess the skills to manage risk effectively.” When uncertainty arises, tell yourself, “I will navigate this situation and find a solution.”
2. Practice Reframing: Reframing is the skill of pivoting your perspective to highlight positive outcomes and learning experiences. For example, if you close a trade at a loss, rather than viewing yourself as a bad trader, remind yourself that you’ve gained invaluable experience, equipping you to refine your strategy.
3. Celebrate Achievements: Acknowledge and celebrate your accomplishments, no matter how small. Avoid comparing yourself with other traders; instead, measure your progress against your past performance. This practice boosts your motivation and self-esteem, reinforcing your commitment to personal growth.
4. Employ Positive Affirmations: Integrate positive affirmations into your routine—short, empowering statements that reinforce your confidence and optimism. Phrases like “I am a successful trader,” “I achieve my goals,” and “I can manage any situation” can cultivate a positive mindset and focus.
5. Surround Yourself with Positive Influences: Engage with other traders who uplift and inspire you through their experiences and insights. Consume enriching resources—books, podcasts, articles—that not only expand your knowledge but also serve as motivation in your trading journey.
6. Avoid Comparisons: Recognize that each trader has a unique style, pace, and set of results. Instead of envying or attempting to emulate others, focus on your individual development. Embrace the understanding that success in trading is a gradual process that demands patience and persistence.
7. Enhance Your Skills and Knowledge: Continuous learning is integral to trading success. Dedicate time to studying theory, analyzing market trends, and keeping abreast of news that affects the markets. Experiment with diverse strategies and develop various analytical techniques. The more you master the nuances of trading, the greater your confidence will become—a key driver of a positive outlook.
8. Prioritize Rest and Relaxation: Trading can be intense and stressful . Ensure you allocate time to unwind and recharge. A rested mind is better equipped to make rational decisions and maintain a balanced perspective.
9. Implement Risk Management Strategies: Develop and adhere to robust risk management techniques to minimize anxiety and mitigate large losses. Solid risk management fosters a positive trading experience and helps maintain composure in turbulent market conditions.
10. Embrace Flexibility: Adaptability is vital in the ever-changing landscape of trading. Acknowledge that market conditions can shift unexpectedly and be prepared to adjust your strategies accordingly. View challenges not as obstacles, but as opportunities for growth that will enhance your resilience and expertise.
11. Cultivate Optimism: Focus on appreciating your current accomplishments rather than lamenting what you lack. Actively seek the positive side of people and situations. Maintain faith in your abilities and trust that things will unfold favorably.
By nurturing a positive mindset and employing these strategies, you can set yourself up for success in trading. Remember, every step you take toward maintaining an optimistic outlook will not only enhance your trading performance but also contribute to your overall well-being.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
The Pip Shift: Why Gold Traders Must Recalibrate SL and TPA few months back, I shared an article highlighting why fluctuations of 30 or 50 pips in Gold (XAU/USD) had minimal impact.
At that time, I also predicted Gold’s potential to climb by 1,000 pips to $2,500. Fast forward to today, and Gold has not only crossed that mark but is nearing $2,750—a substantial increase that requires a fresh look at how we interpret pip values in today’s market.
Why 100 Pips Today Isn’t What It Used to Be
When Gold traded below $2,000, a 100-pip movement carried a specific weight in terms of impact and volatility.
As prices rise, the pip value naturally adjusts in real terms.
This means that what was a 100-pip fluctuation when Gold was at $1,800 is now effectively a 150-pip movement at $2,750.
Proportionally, it’s the same value as before, but this shift has important implications for traders who need to recalibrate their stop-loss and take-profit orders accordingly.
Translating Pip Fluctuations into Percentages
To understand why this adjustment matters, let’s look at pip movements in percentage terms. When Gold traded at $1,800, a 100-pip fluctuation represented about 0.56% of the price. At $2,750, a 100-pip movement is about 0.36%—a significant reduction.
If we want to maintain the same degree of responsiveness in our trades, the stop-loss should be scaled to approximately 150 pips, rather than sticking to a smaller value that might prematurely trigger stops or undershoot our profit potential.
Adjusting Your Trading Strategy
As Gold continues its upward trajectory, traders must recognize that pip values and fluctuations aren’t fixed in impact.
Consider a scenario where Gold moves by 300 pips—when Gold was trading at $1,500, that would’ve been a 2% shift; now, it’s just around 1%.
Being attuned to these changes helps traders avoid overly tight stop-losses, which can lead to premature exit, or take-profits that might cut gains short.
In other words, risk management isn't just about setting numbers; it's about knowing the context of those numbers within market conditions.
By aligning our strategies with current Gold levels, we’re better equipped to maintain consistent risk and reward ratios.
Final Thoughts
The Gold market's growth brings both new opportunities and a need for mindful adjustment in trading strategies. As pips become “cheaper” in percentage terms, setting stop-loss and take-profit orders based on percentage targets rather than fixed pip amounts is a more adaptive approach. With Gold’s ongoing climb, staying flexible and adjusting to the evolving pip value can help you remain resilient, even in volatile markets.
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply
With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout.
From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk.
2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels
The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside.
Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup.
3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation
The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs.
The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms.
4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025)
To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics:
o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures):
Contract Size: 5,000 bushels
Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick)
Point value of 1 future unit: $50
Point value of 1 option unit: $50
Expiration: December 27, 2024
Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760).
o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread
Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024.
The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760
This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures.
o Risk Management:
While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread.
5. Options Risk Profile Analysis
The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration:
Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration.
Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move.
For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets.
6. Trade Execution Plan
Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout.
Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point.
7. Risk Management Considerations
Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages:
Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread.
No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market.
Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups.
This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.
The symmetrical triangle is an important chart pattern in technical analysis, deserving special attention from professional traders.
This formation is characterized by a convergence of prices between two trendlines, one descending and the other ascending, creating a consolidation zone where indecision between buyers and sellers is palpable.
Statistical Analysis
Empirical data reveals that the success rate of the symmetrical triangle for a trend continuation is approximately 54%. This percentage, although higher than 50%, underlines the importance of a cautious approach and rigorous risk management in using this pattern.
Breakout Point
The breakout of the symmetrical triangle usually occurs when the price has traveled approximately 75% of the distance to the apex. This point is crucial for traders, as it often represents the moment when volatility increases and a new trend can be established.
Risks and False Exits
It is essential to note that the symmetrical triangle has a relatively high rate of false exits. Statistics indicate that approximately 13% of cases in a bear market can result in a false exit to the bottom. This phenomenon underlines the need for additional confirmation before entering a position.
Strategy of use
To effectively exploit the symmetrical triangle, professional traders must:
-Identify the formation accurately.
-Wait for the breakout near the point of convergence of the trendlines.
-Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators or an increase in volume.
-Put in place strict risk management to protect against false exits.
In conclusion, the symmetrical triangle, although being a valuable tool in the trader's arsenal, requires a methodical approach and a thorough understanding of its characteristics to be used effectively in a trading strategy.
Don’t Follow Nobody, Neither Me.Have you ever found yourself making investment decisions based on what everyone else is doing? It’s a common scenario—investors rush into the latest hot stock or abandon a sector because it’s suddenly out of favor. The urge to follow the crowd can be overwhelming, but is it really the best strategy for your portfolio?
In the world of investing, trend-chasing—where investors follow market trends without careful consideration—can often feel like a safe bet. After all, if everyone else is doing it, it must be right, right? This behavior, known as herd mentality, is deeply rooted in human psychology. However, in the financial markets, blindly following trends can be dangerous. Trend-chasing can lead to poor investment decisions and, ultimately, harm your portfolio. In this article, we’ll explore the risks of trend-chasing and why it’s crucial to develop a solid investment strategy that resists the pull of the crowd.
What Is Trend-Chasing?
Trend-chasing is the practice of making investment decisions based on the prevailing direction of the market rather than through careful analysis or a well-thought-out, long-term strategy. Investors engaging in trend-chasing often find themselves buying assets that have recently surged in value, hoping to capitalize on the upward momentum, or selling assets that are declining, fearing further losses. The key characteristic of trend-chasing is its reactive nature—investors make decisions based on what’s happening now, rather than a clear understanding of what the future may hold.
A Cautionary Tale: The Dot-Com Bubble
A classic example of trend-chasing occurred during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. As tech stocks began to soar, countless investors jumped on the bandwagon, pouring money into companies with little to no earnings simply because their stock prices were rising. The euphoria was contagious—no one wanted to miss out on the next big thing. However, when the bubble inevitably burst, those who had chased the trend found themselves with substantial losses as overvalued stocks plummeted back to reality.
The Meme Stock Phenomenon
More recently, the meme stock phenomenon of 2021 showcased another instance of trend-chasing on a massive scale. Stocks like GameStop and AMC experienced wild price surges driven not by fundamental value but by social media-fueled hype. Retail investors, motivated by online forums and the fear of missing out (FOMO), rushed to buy these stocks, driving their prices to unsustainable levels. While a few early adopters profited handsomely, many others who followed the trend ended up holding overpriced shares when the hype died down, resulting in significant losses.
GME Game-Stop 2021
AMC Entertainment 2021
In both cases, the underlying force at play was herd mentality—a psychological phenomenon where individuals mimic the actions of a larger group, often at the expense of their own rational judgment. This herd behavior drives market bubbles, where prices inflate beyond reasonable levels, and eventually, painful corrections occur. By understanding the dangers of trend-chasing and recognizing the role of herd mentality, investors can better guard against making impulsive decisions that may jeopardize their financial well-being.
The Psychology Behind Herd Mentality
Herd mentality is deeply ingrained in human behavior and significantly impacts how investors make decisions. One of the primary psychological drivers behind herd mentality is the fear of missing out. When investors see others profiting from a particular trend or asset, they often feel an intense urge to join in, fearing they’ll miss out on potential gains if they don’t act quickly. This fear can override logical thinking, leading to impulsive decisions based on emotion rather than careful analysis.
Overconfidence is another psychological factor that fuels herd mentality. When a market trend appears to gain momentum, many investors become overly confident in their ability to predict the future. They believe that if the majority is doing something, it must be the right move, and they overestimate their ability to time the market. This overconfidence often blinds investors to the risks associated with their decisions.
The Impact on Investment Decisions
Herd mentality pushes investors to follow the crowd rather than stick to their well-planned strategies. When everyone else seems to be buying a particular stock or entering a specific market, it can be challenging to resist the pull. As a result, investors may abandon their original investment strategy in favor of what appears to be a winning trend. This can lead to inflated asset prices and bubbles as more investors pile in, often without fully understanding the underlying fundamentals.
The problem arises when the trend reverses, leaving those who followed the crowd vulnerable to significant losses. In essence, herd mentality encourages reactive rather than proactive decision-making, often to the detriment of a sound investment strategy. By succumbing to the pressure of the crowd, investors risk making short-sighted choices that could harm their portfolio in the long run.
The Risks of Trend-Chasing
While the allure of following market trends can be strong, the risks associated with trend-chasing often outweigh the potential rewards. Investors who chase trends are frequently driven by emotion rather than rational analysis, leading to impulsive decisions that compromise long-term financial goals. Although trend-chasing may yield short-term gains, it exposes investors to heightened market volatility and the danger of being caught in a market downturn. Understanding these risks is crucial for developing a disciplined investment strategy that prioritizes long-term success over the fleeting appeal of the latest market trend.
Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Losses
One of the biggest dangers of trend-chasing is the temptation to prioritize short-term gains over long-term portfolio health. While it might seem profitable to jump on a trending stock or sector, this strategy often overlooks the bigger picture. Trend-chasing can lead to buying high during a market surge, only to sell low when the trend reverses. This pattern of behavior—repeated over time—can erode portfolio value and make it difficult to achieve long-term financial goals.
Market Volatility
Trend-chasing also exposes investors to heightened market risks. Trends are often fueled by speculation and hype rather than sound financial principles. As a result, markets driven by trend-chasing can become extremely volatile. Prices may swing wildly based on news, rumors, or shifts in sentiment, leaving investors who followed the trend vulnerable to sharp downturns. This volatility makes it challenging to predict market movements and increases the likelihood of significant losses.
Case Studies: Cryptocurrency Market
A prime example is the cryptocurrency market. The rapid rise of Bitcoin and other digital assets attracted a wave of trend-chasers eager to capitalize on the perceived opportunity. However, as seen in the dramatic crash of 2018 and subsequent market fluctuations, those who chased the trend often faced steep losses when the speculative bubble deflated.
BTC Bitcoin 2021
SHIBUSD Shiba Inu Token 2021
How to Avoid Trend-Chasing in Your Investment Strategy
In the ever-evolving world of investing, resisting the temptation to follow trends can be challenging. The fear of missing out and the influence of herd mentality can drive even the most seasoned investors to make decisions based on market trends rather than sound financial principles. However, by developing a disciplined approach, diversifying your portfolio, and staying informed without reacting impulsively, you can avoid the pitfalls of trend-chasing and create a more resilient investment strategy.
Developing a Disciplined Approach
The foundation of any successful investment strategy is discipline. This means setting clear financial goals, establishing a plan to achieve them, and sticking to that plan, even when market trends seem enticing. Here are a few tips to help you develop a disciplined approach:
Set Clear Objectives
Before making any investment decisions, defining your financial goals is essential. Are you investing for retirement, saving for a major purchase, or seeking to grow your wealth over time? Your objectives will shape your investment strategy and help you stay focused. When you have a clear understanding of what you're working toward, you're less likely to be swayed by short-term market trends that don't align with your long-term goals.
Create a Well-Defined Investment Plan
Once your objectives are set, develop a detailed investment plan outlining your asset allocation, risk tolerance, and time horizon. This plan should serve as your roadmap, guiding your decisions and helping you stay on course. A well-defined plan can act as a buffer against the emotional impulses that often drive trend-chasing behavior. When the market is booming and everyone seems to be jumping on the latest trend, your plan will remind you of your long-term strategy, preventing you from making hasty decisions.
Stick to Your Plan in Good Times and Bad
Market fluctuations are inevitable, but disciplined investors understand the importance of staying the course. When trends arise, it can be tempting to abandon your plan and chase after quick profits. However, this often leads to buying high and selling low—a recipe for underperformance. By adhering to your plan, you can avoid the emotional rollercoaster of trend-chasing and focus on achieving your long-term objectives.
Regularly Review and Adjust Your Plan
While discipline is crucial, recognizing when adjustments are needed is also important. Markets change, as do your financial goals and personal circumstances. Regularly reviewing your investment plan ensures it remains aligned with your objectives. However, any adjustments should be made thoughtfully and not in response to short-term trends. This approach allows you to stay disciplined while remaining flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions.
Diversification: Mitigating Risks Through a Balanced Portfolio
Diversification is one of the most effective ways to protect your portfolio from the risks associated with trend-chasing. By spreading your investments across a variety of asset classes, industries, and geographic regions, you reduce the impact of any single trend or market event on your overall portfolio. Here's how diversification can help you avoid the pitfalls of trend-chasing:
Reduce Dependence on a Single Asset or Market
Trend-chasing often leads investors to concentrate their investments in a particular asset class or market segment that is currently in vogue. While this can generate short-term gains, it also increases exposure to market volatility. A diversified portfolio, on the other hand, balances risk by spreading investments across different assets, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This diversification can help mitigate losses during market downturns when specific trends may collapse.
Balance Risk and Return
By diversifying, investors can achieve a more balanced risk-return profile. Different assets respond differently to market conditions, and by holding a mix of investments, you can smooth out the effects of market volatility. This approach allows you to pursue potential gains without exposing yourself to the full brunt of a market downturn.
Create a Stable Foundation for Long-Term Growth
A well-diversified portfolio can provide a stable foundation for long-term growth. Rather than chasing trends that may lead to short-lived profits, you can focus on building a portfolio designed for sustained performance over time. This stability will help you weather market fluctuations and remain focused on your long-term financial goals.
Stay Informed, but Don’t React Impulsively
Staying informed about market trends and economic developments is crucial for making sound investment decisions. However, it’s equally important to avoid reacting impulsively to the latest news or trends. Here are some tips for staying informed without falling into the trend-chasing trap:
Conduct Thorough Research
Before making any investment decisions, ensure you conduct thorough research and analysis. Understand the fundamentals of the assets you are considering and assess whether they align with your long-term goals. This research will help you make informed decisions based on facts rather than emotions.
Focus on Fundamentals, Not Headlines
While headlines may capture attention, it’s important to focus on the underlying fundamentals that drive asset values. Trends often gain traction based on hype rather than solid financial principles. By prioritizing fundamental analysis, you can better evaluate whether an investment is sound, regardless of its current popularity.
Maintain a Long-Term Perspective
Finally, keeping a long-term perspective is vital in avoiding trend-chasing. Markets are inherently cyclical, and short-term trends can be misleading. By focusing on your long-term investment strategy and goals, you can avoid getting swept up in the latest market fads.
Conclusion
In a world where market trends can shift rapidly, it’s essential for investors to recognize the risks of trend-chasing. The allure of quick profits can lead to impulsive decisions driven by emotion rather than careful analysis. By developing a disciplined approach, diversifying your portfolio, and staying informed without reacting impulsively, you can avoid the pitfalls of trend-chasing and work toward achieving your long-term financial goals.
Remember, the key to successful investing lies not in following the crowd but in maintaining a clear vision of your financial objectives. So, the next time you feel the urge to follow a market trend, take a step back, assess the situation, and ensure your decisions align with your long-term strategy. Don’t follow nobody, neither me—stay true to your investment principles, and you’ll be better positioned for success in the long run.
What Is a Falling Knife in Trading? What Is a Falling Knife in Trading?
It’s often repeated that traders should ‘never catch a falling knife.’ This phrase highlights the risks of buying into a rapidly declining asset. Understanding what a falling knife is, its causes, and strategies for trading it may help traders navigate these sharp declines more effectively. This article delves into the intricacies of falling knives and offers insights on how to approach them with caution.
Understanding the Falling Knife Pattern
A falling knife consists of candlesticks that depict a significant rapid drop in an asset’s price, including stocks, commodities, forex pairs, indices, cryptocurrencies*, and more. This situation is often driven by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs.
Identifying a falling knife involves recognising several key characteristics. Firstly, the decline is steep and sudden, typically marked by large red candlesticks on a price chart. The volume often increases as the price falls, indicating panic selling. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) might show oversold conditions, suggesting the asset is undervalued in the short term.
Common tools used to identify falling knives include:
- Moving Averages: When short-term moving averages cross below long-term moving averages, it signals bearish market sentiment.
- Bollinger Bands: Prices breaking below the lower band can indicate a falling knife.
- Volume Analysis: Spikes in trading volume often accompany these sharp declines, confirming the intensity of the sell-off.
In terms of candlesticks, a falling knife typically produces several bearish candles with long bodies and small wicks. They may appear as a large engulfing candle on a higher timeframe.
Recognising these patterns is crucial for traders. Misinterpreting a falling knife can lead to significant losses, as attempting to catch a falling knife—buying during the steep decline—without proper analysis can be risky. Instead, many traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry point.
Causes of Falling Knives
A falling knife generally occurs due to several specific catalysts, each capable of triggering a rapid and substantial decline in an asset's price. Understanding these causes, including technical factors, is essential for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations effectively.
Economic Events and News Releases
One primary cause of falling knives is significant economic news. For instance, announcements of interest rate hikes by central banks can lead to widespread stock market sell-offs. Similarly, unexpected changes in economic indicators like unemployment rates, inflation, or GDP growth can trigger sharp declines. Traders react swiftly to such news, often leading to panic selling and steep price drops.
Earnings Reports and Company-Specific Issues
A falling knife stock pattern can be triggered by poor earnings reports or disappointing financial results from a company. When a company misses earnings expectations or issues negative guidance, investors may lose confidence, resulting in a rapidly falling stock. Additionally, company-specific problems such as legal issues, management scandals, or product recalls can lead to rapid price declines as investors reassess the company's prospects.
Broader Market Conditions and Trends
Broader market trends and conditions play a significant role in causing a falling knife in stocks and other assets. During periods of market volatility or bear markets, negative sentiment can spread quickly, leading to sharp declines in asset prices. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, widespread fear and uncertainty led to massive sell-offs across various sectors. Similarly, market corrections or crashes can create environments where falling knife patterns are more likely to occur.
Geopolitical Events
Geopolitical events such as wars, political instability, or trade tensions can cause abrupt market reactions. For instance, escalating trade disputes between major economies can lead to uncertainty and fear, causing investors and traders to exit positions rapidly.
Technical Factors
Technical analysis also plays a crucial role in falling knife patterns. Key technical factors include:
- Breaking Support Levels: When an asset's price falls below critical support levels, it can trigger further selling as traders perceive a lack of price stability.
- Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing overbought conditions can precede a falling knife as prices correct sharply. At the same time, the RSI may enter the oversold area during the falling knife pattern.
- Bearish Chart Patterns: Patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or descending triangles can signal potential sharp declines, leading to falling knife scenarios.
Risks Associated with Falling Knife
Trading falling knives carries significant risks, primarily due to the rapid nature of the price declines. Understanding these risks is crucial for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations.
Potential for Significant Losses
The most apparent risk is the potential for substantial financial losses. When an asset's price plummets, catching the falling knife can result in buying at prices that continue to drop, leading to immediate and severe losses.
False Bottoms and Dead Cat Bounces
Traders may mistakenly interpret temporary price stabilisations or minor recoveries as the end of the decline, only to face further drops. These false bottoms and dead cat bounces can trap traders in losing positions.
Increased Volatility
Falling knives are often accompanied by heightened market volatility, making it challenging to analyse short-term price movements. This volatility can result in rapid and unexpected changes in asset prices, complicating risk management.
Psychological Challenges
The psychological impact of trading falling knives should not be underestimated. The stress and emotional strain of dealing with sharp losses can lead to irrational decision-making, such as holding onto losing positions for too long or making impulsive trades.
Technical Analysis Limitations
While technical indicators can help identify potential entry points, they are not foolproof. The rapid and severe nature of falling knives can render technical analysis less reliable, as price movements may not follow traditional patterns.
Liquidity Issues
During sharp declines, liquidity can dry up, leading to wider spreads and slippage. This makes it harder to execute trades at desired prices, potentially exacerbating losses.
Examples of Falling Knife Events
Now, let’s take a look at a couple of falling knife examples. To start identifying your own falling knives, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore real-time charts across different asset classes.
Onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Nasdaq 100
In early 2020, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic triggered a dramatic fall in global financial markets. The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted with speculative tech stocks, experienced a sharp decline as investors reacted to the uncertainty and potential economic impact of the pandemic.
From mid-February to late March 2020, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by over 30%. This steep decline represented a classic falling knife pattern, characterised by rapid sell-offs and increased market volatility over the course of several weeks. Traders who attempted to buy into the market too early faced significant losses as the market continued to fall before eventually stabilising and recovering later in the year.
EUR/USD After Strong US Inflation Data
On April 10, 2024, the release of March US inflation data led to a falling knife event in the EUR/USD currency pair. Traders had been closely monitoring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, anticipating that a lower-than-forecast reading would prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later in the year.
The forecast was set at 3.4%, with a lower or at-forecast figure expected to weaken the dollar. Instead, the headline CPI YoY reading came in exactly at 3.5%, defying expectations. This unexpected data triggered a rally in the dollar and a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD. The pair plummeted rapidly, and the decline persisted until the end of the trading week, illustrating how sudden economic data releases can lead to sharp and sustained price drops.
Strategies for Trading Falling Knives
Understanding the catalyst behind a falling knife is crucial for determining whether it’s likely to rebound soon or persist as a trend. Events that cause fundamental repricing, such as poor earnings data, significant or unexpected news/economic releases, or unique risk events like currency intervention or financial crises, often lead to prolonged falling knives.
In contrast, temporary sharp corrections might be due to overreactions to already priced-in news or transient market fears. Recognising these catalysts helps traders decide whether to take a position or wait for volatility to subside.
Additionally, the timeframe of the falling knife provides valuable context. A falling knife on a 5-minute chart could indicate a sharp intraday decline, potentially recovering before the trading day ends. Conversely, on a 4-hour or daily chart, a sharp decline may suggest a continued downtrend over several days or weeks. Traders can use this information to look for short opportunities on lower timeframes or prepare for longer-term moves.
Common Strategies Traders Use
The insights gained from analysing market conditions can help traders to decide whether to short the falling knife or stay out of the market and wait for a bottom.
Shorting the Falling Knife
Traders looking to short a falling knife should exercise caution. Increased volatility during sharp declines can make it difficult to set appropriate stop-loss levels without a sub-par risk/reward ratio.
The best entry can potentially be found during a pullback. As some traders think the price is bottoming out, their stop losses being triggered as the price continues to decline can fuel another leg lower. Traders can look for breakouts from bearish chart patterns like rising wedges, bear flags, or bear pennants.
Alternatively, waiting for the bullish structure of the pullback (higher highs and higher lows) to break down into a lower low and lower high can indicate the next leg lower is underway. This approach offers traders confirmation that the knife is continuing to fall and an appropriate place to set a stop loss above the pullback’s high.
Buying After a Falling Knife
For those looking to catch the bottom, confirmation is essential. Using a pair of moving averages, such as 20-period and 50-period EMAs, can help. When the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, and the price closes above both, it suggests the downtrend might be over. However, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD can falsely signal market turns during steep declines, but they may have some value on higher timeframes.
Generally speaking, one of the potentially effective strategies for catching a falling knife is to wait for the price to break above the previous lower high of the downtrend. This would demonstrate that the market has been able to break above a point at which it previously found resistance, allowing traders to potentially switch their bias to bullish and seek entry points.
The Role of Patience and Discipline in Trading Falling Knives
Patience and discipline are paramount when trading falling knives. Impulsive trades driven by the fear of missing out can lead to significant losses. Traders are required to wait for clear signs of trend reversal or continuation before entering a trade. This involves adhering to predefined strategies and not deviating due to emotional reactions to volatile market movements.
Likewise, maintaining discipline in setting and following stop-loss levels, adhering to risk management principles, and avoiding premature entries can potentially enhance trading effectiveness.
The Bottom Line
Navigating falling knives requires careful analysis and disciplined trading strategies. By understanding the causes and employing effective techniques, traders can potentially better manage these volatile situations. To explore these strategies further and enhance your trading skills, consider opening an FXOpen account. With the right tools and knowledge, you can approach falling knives with greater confidence and precision.
FAQ
What Is a Falling Knife in Trading?
A falling knife in trading refers to a rapid and significant decline in an asset's price, often triggered by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs. This sharp drop can be volatile and difficult to analyse, making it challenging for traders to time their entries and exits.
Should You Ever Try to Catch a Falling Knife?
Catching a falling knife is highly risky. Therefore, the theory states it’s not recommended for most traders. The rapid decline in price can continue further than anticipated, leading to significant losses. To minimise risk, traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry.
How to Catch a Falling Knife?
Catching a falling knife involves identifying potential reversal points through technical analysis. Traders often wait for confirmation, such as a break above previous resistance levels or a moving average crossover. Patience and strict risk management, including setting tight stop-loss orders, are essential when attempting this strategy.
What Is a Falling Knife in Crypto*?
In the crypto* market, a falling knife refers to a sudden and steep decline in the price of a cryptocurrency*. This can be triggered by regulatory news, security breaches, or market sentiment shifts. Due to cryptocurrencies*' high volatility, falling knives can be particularly severe and difficult to analyse.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rule. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
trailblazing women who took Wall Street by storm these incredible women have paved a way for female investors and traders around the world showing great resilience and fearless mentality despite facing gender discrimination going on to achieve great things in the financial field, motivating the future generation of young women that they too can achieve the unthinkable.
1. HETTY GREEN
the witch of wall street
also referred to as "the woman who loved money" born November 21, 1834 and also believed to have been the richest woman in America before the time of her passing, Hetty Green started her financial/business journey from a young age through the influence of her father who was a successful agent, oil manufacturer, and Quaker, who encouraged her to read and study financial texts when she was a young girl, he believed that even women needed to understand the dealings of money, business and overall how the financial world operates.
She is best known for turning an inheritance of between 3 - 7 million to 100 million U.S dollars approximately $2.5 billion in today's money. She did this by investing in U.S government bonds, stocks, real estate and railroads and providing financial support during crises, most especially the Panic of 1907, making her a reputable investor and financier, using a buy low, sell high strategy and impeccable psychology facing markets militantly and unafraid even in times of panic.
2. VICTORIA WOODHALL
the first woman to run for presidency
born September 23, 1838, Victoria came from a very poor background, with the influence of their father she and her sister sold herbs and potions posing as spiritualists and healers they caused them to live a on the run from one place to another due to unsatisfied customers/patients.
Their nomadic lifestyle led them to Manhattan were they caught the attention of railroad magnate Cornelius Vanderbilt, who it was believed they helped him keep in contact with his dead wife he in return offered them financial advice and through this connection they were able to open the first female owned brokerage in wall street in 1870 called WOODHULL, CLAFLIN and CO with clients of high society women, rich widows and high value prostitutes, this become a success earning them over $700 000 about 2million today. She used this money to further her goals and fund her campaign to run for presidency.
3. ISABEL BENHAM
madam railroad
born 1909, in the 1920s Isabel enrolled at a women only college called Bryn Mawr in Pennsylvania, with a strong desire to study economics and work in wall street it has a great tragedy to find that the school offered no economics courses but Isabel insisted the college offer economics studies and made history by being 1 of 5 women to graduate from the college with a degree in economics.
after graduation, living in times of the great depression also facing daily gender discrimination this did not stop her from pursuing her dreams to work in wall street, she started a side hustle by selling magazine subscriptions and later landed a job as a bond strategist on wall street bond house R.W Pressprich and Co. and due to her resilience and hard work providing accurate reports of the railroad industry became their first female partner and first woman as a partner of a wall street bond house and first woman to be appointed Board of Directors for a railroad.
4. MURIEL SIEBERT
the first lady of finance
born 1928 without graduating from any college her finance career started by being a finance research trainee and grew her expertise by working in various brokerages.
through hard work and determination by year 1967, despite numerous failed attempts and rejection she became the first woman to have a seat on the BYSE being the only woman among 1,365 men which was a remarkable achievement.
she went on to co-found Siebert and Co a broker- dealer in 1969 and when the the NYSE jettisoned it's 183 year old tradition allowing it's members to negotiate broker commissions her company became America's first discount brokerage also being owned by a woman.
by year 1977 she hit another incredible career milestone by being appointed superintendent of Banks for New York state, overseeing all NEW YORK banks with no banks failing in her 5 year term.
5. GERALDINE WEISS
grand dame of dividents
considered one of the best female investors/ traders of the 20th century, learning about investing by reading investing texts like Security Analysis by BENJAMIN GRAHAM and studying business and finance earning a degree at the University Of California.
with her advanced knowledge about investing she was still unable to get any job position higher than secretary due to gender discrimination in the male dominated industry but this did not put out her fuel and and undying desire to become be involved in the investment community and by age 40 she started her investment newsletter called "Investment Quality Trends" under a pseudonym "G. Weiss" to hide her gender as at the time many believed no woman can make successful investments and did this for a decade with her subscribers thinking she is a male it was only in 1977 when she appeared on TV program "wall street with Louis Rukeyser" that she revealed her gender this now with her newsletter being a success with accurate analysis asserting that dividend yield is a key valuation measure that how she got her nickname.
hope this inspires more women to be more active in the trading world.
Whatever women do they must do twice as well as men to be thought half their inferior. Luckily, this is not difficult.
– Charlotte Whitton
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as currencynerd
Pulse of an Asset via Fibonacci: NDX at ATH Impulse Redux"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water.
"Impulse Redux" is returning of wave to the original source of energy.
"Impulse Core" is the zone of maximum energy, in the Golden Pocket.
Are the sellers still there? Enough to absorb the buying power?
Reaction at Impulse is worth observing closely to gauge energy.
Rejection is expected on at least first approach if not several.
Part of my ongoing series to collect examples of my Methodology: (click links below)
Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples
Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis
Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves
Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place <= Current Example
Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions
Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: one Ping only
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Ordered Chaos
every Wave is born from Impulse,
like a Pebble into Water.
every Pebble bears its own Ripples,
gilded of Ratio Golden.
every Ripple behaves as its forerunner,
setting the Pulse.
each line Gains its Gravity.
each line Tried and Tested.
each line Poised to Reflect.
every Asset Class behaves this way.
every Time Frame displays its ripples.
every Brain Chord rings these rhythms.
He who Understands will be Humble.
He who Grasps will observe the Order.
He who Ignores will behold only Chaos.
Ordered Chaos
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want to Learn a little More?
can you Spend a few Moments?
click the Links under Related.
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How I Identify Support and Resistance in Day TradingTo understand Price Action, first thing we do is to look for (S) and (R) to help us read strength&weakness of price.
This video will explain how I find Support and Resistance of a trend.
I will provide example of what your chart will looks like throughout trading hours.
how to know which candle to draw (S)/(R).
How I use ORB with Fibonacci Retracement to find (R) and Target.This video will explain how to draw FIB on ORB to find potential resistances and target.
Setting style of Fibonacci Retracement for first target 2.0%: (0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%)
extension for Fib is to add another +1.5% incrament to Frist Target of 2.0%. (....2.0%. 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.5%)
how I find support and resistance of a trendTo understand Price Action, first thing we do is to look for (S) and (R) to help us read strength&weakness of price.
This video will explain how I find Support and Resistance of a trend.
I will provide example of what your chart will looks like throughout trading hours.
how to know which candle to draw (S)/(R).
Panic or Common Sense?This is not a recommendation but rather a possibility based on the following:
1. We may see an upward opening gap at start of the market later.
2. There are circumspect views that there is collusion between Iran, Israel and the USA pertaining to the recent escalation. Non of Iran's Oil or Nuclear installations were targeted.
3. US Election race is neck to neck with Trump has a perceived lead in swing states.
4. Rising bond yields and DXY also bullish
5. Possible formation of Bear Flag Chart pattern, which looks highly logical because of severe overbought conditions.
Please remember this coming week has a plethora of news culminating with the NFP news!
I will be looking to sell at the upper Fib level and with buy stop above the ATH.
Please leave your comments if you have any ideas!
Happy and safe trading!
Prop Trading - All you need to know !!A proprietary trading firm, often abbreviated as "prop firm," is a financial institution that trades stocks, currencies, options, or other financial instruments with its own capital rather than on behalf of clients.
Proprietary trading firms offer several advantages for traders who join their ranks:
1. Access to Capital: One of the most significant advantages of working with a prop firm is access to substantial capital. Prop firms typically provide traders with significant buying power, allowing them to take larger positions in the market than they could with their own funds. This access to capital enables traders to potentially earn higher profits and diversify their trading strategies.
2. Professional Support and Guidance: Many prop firms offer traders access to experienced mentors, coaches, and support staff who can provide guidance, feedback, and assistance. This professional support can be invaluable for traders looking to improve their skills, refine their trading strategies, and navigate volatile market conditions.
3. Risk Management Tools: Prop firms typically have sophisticated risk management systems and tools in place to help traders monitor and manage their exposure to market risks. These systems may include real-time risk analytics, position monitoring, and risk controls that help traders mitigate potential losses and preserve capital.
4. Profit Sharing: Some prop firms operate on a profit-sharing model, where traders receive a share of the profits generated from their trading activities. This arrangement aligns the interests of traders with those of the firm, incentivizing traders to perform well and contribute to the overall success of the firm.
Overall, prop firms provide traders with access to capital, technology, support, and learning resources that can help them succeed in the competitive world of trading. By leveraging these advantages, traders can enhance their trading performance, grow their portfolios, and achieve their financial goals.
CHOCH vs BOS !!WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market structure bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish / bearish market structure we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market structure we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the structure this is the BOS.
BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
WHAT IS CHOCH?
CHOCH - change of character. Also known as reversal, when the price fails to make a new higher high or lower low, then the price broke the structure and continue in other direction.