USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Community ideas
Re-defining Trading Psychology: A Functional ApproachRethinking Trading Psychology: A Functional Definition
Trading psychology is often misunderstood or overly simplified in trading discourse. Psychology, by definition, is the scientific study of the mind and behavior. When applied to trading, trading psychology should be defined as the study of how our mental processes directly influence market structure through behavior—specifically through the act of placing trades.
The Facts: How Humans Influence the Market
Traders interact with the market in only a few meaningful ways:
Placing entries
Setting stop losses
Setting take-profit (target) levels
Though external variables such as news events can impact decision-making, they only affect where we choose to interact with the market—they do not directly move price. Price only responds to order flow , and all order flow originates from trader decisions. Therefore, these three actions—entries, stops, and targets—are the only real mechanisms through which psychology influences price action.
Entry: The Initiator of Market Movement
Entries are typically based on structural cues like engulfing candles or order blocks —price zones where a shift in momentum is visible. These areas act as high-probability triggers that prompt traders to take action in a particular direction.
When enough buy orders are placed at a bullish signal, we see that reflected in the strength and size of bullish candles. Conversely, strong bearish signals generate concentrated sell-side pressure. This collective order flow initiates price movement—entries are the impulse drivers of the market.
Stop Losses: The Creation of Liquidity Pools
Once a position is opened, traders generally place stop losses behind significant structure—often just beyond the order block or engulfing pattern that prompted the entry. These zones become liquidity pools —clusters of pending orders that, when triggered, cause mass exits and reallocation of capital.
When price returns to these zones, it forces traders out of the market, often resulting in sharp movements or false breakouts. This behavior is not coincidental; it is a byproduct of shared psychological behavior manifesting as clustered risk management.
Take-Profits: Delayed Exit Pressure
Alongside stop losses, traders also define target levels where they plan to close their trades. These levels can be calculated based on fixed R-multiples (2R, 3R, etc.) or drawn from contextual zones like previous highs/lows or supply and demand areas.
As price moves into profit and hits these levels, traders begin to exit en masse. This diminishes order flow in the direction of the trade, often leading to hesitation or minor reversals—much like stop losses do when they are hit.
Conclusion: Market Movement vs. Market Stalling
To summarize:
Entries drive market movement
Stop losses and target levels stall or reverse movement
This dynamic defines how human behavior—guided by psychological patterns—actually shapes price. In this framework, engulfments represent entry logic , while liquidity zones represent collective exit logic .
Redefining Trading Psychology
Contrary to popular belief, trading psychology isn’t just about “staying disciplined” or “keeping emotions in check.” While emotional control matters, it’s secondary to understanding how trader behavior creates cause-and-effect loops in price action.
Having a trading plan is important—but deviating from that plan is not always due to emotion alone. It can stem from overconfidence, impulsivity, cognitive bias, or poor conditioning. These are psychological behaviors that affect execution, and thus, affect market movement.
What’s Next
In my next writing, I will explore how the sheer volume of market participants leads to herding behavior —the collective patterns that emerge from mass psychology and their role in creating consolidation zones, liquidity traps, and false breakouts.
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Iran-Israel Political Tension & End of Crypto marketDo geopolitical tensions truly cause markets to crash or pump?
In a world where financial safety is more fragile than ever, how do traders react?
This analysis dives deep into how pro traders think and act during critical moments.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin:
Bitcoin is experiencing a fear-driven shock amid escalating geopolitical tensions, triggering potential downside volatility toward the $98K level 📉. Despite this risk-off sentiment, the broader market structure remains intact, and I maintain a bullish bias. A recovery from key support zones could pave the way for a renewed breakout above $100K in the mid-term .
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
🧠 Fear, Safety or Opportunity? Trading Psychology in Crisis 🧨
Markets don’t move based on headlines—they move based on how the crowd feels about those headlines. Political tension triggers emotional responses, especially panic selling.
However, experienced traders spot opportunities while others flee.
In such moments, two emotional extremes dominate:
🔸 Fear of losing capital (FUD)
🔸 Greed to seize a rare opportunity (FOMO)
Both are dangerous if uncontrolled. Tools like RSI and Fear & Greed Index (via external APIs) can provide rough estimates of market sentiment and potential turning points.
📊 Practical TradingView Tools for Analyzing Crisis-Driven Markets 🔍
When global tension spikes, the markets reflect collective emotion like a mirror. During uncertain times, smart traders rely on tools that turn raw data into sharp insights. TradingView provides several features that become extremely useful in times of high uncertainty:
1. Crypto Volatility Index Proxy (using ATR + Bollinger Bands)
These indicators help detect when the market is driven more by fear than logic. They show increasing volatility levels as tensions rise.
2. Sentiment Indicators – Funding Rate & Long/Short Ratios
These metrics, pulled from major exchanges, show whether traders are overly bullish or bearish. A sudden imbalance usually hints at insider expectations or fast-breaking news.
3. DXY and Gold (XAUUSD) Side-by-Side with BTC
Analyzing Bitcoin’s performance alongside USD and gold gives insight into whether investors are going risk-off or seeking crypto as a hedge.
4. Volume-Based Indicators – OBV & Volume Profile
While headlines can lie, volume doesn’t. These tools highlight areas of serious buying/selling interest and help identify where smart money enters or exits.
5. Multi-Chart Layout Feature
TradingView allows you to analyze multiple assets together—BTC, gold, oil, and stock indices like S&P 500—on one screen. Perfect for understanding macro capital flow during geopolitical events.
💣 Interconnected Markets During Regional Conflict 🌍
Crypto often acts like a risk-on asset during global crises. If traditional markets fall, Bitcoin may follow—unless it’s being viewed as a safe haven.
That’s why watching DXY, gold, and oil charts alongside BTC is crucial.
Understanding these correlations using TradingView’s comparison features gives you a better sense of where capital is flowing during uncertain times.
⏳ What Traders Should Focus on in Crisis Mode 💼
1. Focus on chart confirmations, not news hype.
2. Use multi-dimensional analysis with TradingView.
3. Prioritize risk management more than ever.
4. Cash is a position. Sometimes the best move is no move.
5. Always have a backup scenario—no analysis is guaranteed.
📌 Final advice:
When headlines play with your nerves, data becomes your best ally.
With the right tools and a disciplined mindset, traders can navigate even the stormiest markets with confidence.
The market rewards the calm, not the reckless.
✨ Need a little love!
We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛
Big thanks,
Mad Whale 🐋
📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Learning#03 : VWAP in Intraday TradingLearning#03 : VWAP in Intraday Trading
📊 VWAP in Intraday Trading: The Market’s Fair Price GPS
Ever wondered if there’s a level that shows where the real trading action is happening? That’s exactly what VWAP does — it’s like a volume-weighted compass that intraday traders use to orient themselves in the market.
It’s not just another line on your chart. VWAP reflects where institutions and volume-heavy participants are active. That’s why understanding how price interacts with it can give you a serious edge.
Let’s break it down 👇
🧠 What is VWAP?
VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price.
In simple terms, it shows the average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume.
Unlike a simple average, VWAP gives more weight to prices where more trading volume occurred — meaning it's a better reflection of the market’s consensus value.
Think of it as:
A real-time fair value line for intraday decision-making.
📈 Why VWAP Matters for Intraday Traders
VWAP acts as an intraday anchor. It tells you whether the price is currently trading above or below the day’s volume-weighted average — giving you quick insight into who's in control.
Here’s how to interpret it:
When price is above VWAP, buyers are in control and the bias is bullish.
When price is below VWAP, sellers are dominating and the bias is bearish.
When price is hovering near VWAP, the market is undecided, consolidating, or lacking direction.
In short, VWAP tells you who’s winning the intraday tug of war — and whether it’s even worth stepping in.
⚙️ How to Use VWAP in Your Intraday Strategy
1️⃣ VWAP as a Trend Filter
Before entering a trade, check where price is relative to VWAP:
Price above VWAP with higher lows → Focus on long setups
Price below VWAP with lower highs → Focus on short setups
🔁 Skip counter-trend trades. Stay with the flow.
This helps in trending markets by keeping you aligned with momentum.
2️⃣ VWAP as Dynamic Support or Resistance
VWAP behaves like a magnet. Price often pulls back to it and either:
Rejects (respects the level as support/resistance), or
Breaks and reclaims (signaling a potential reversal)
Use it alongside:
Flag patterns
Inside bars
Break-and-retest structures
3️⃣ VWAP Reversion Play (Snapback Trade)
This is a mean-reversion setup:
Price moves quickly away from VWAP at open
No strong follow-through, signs of exhaustion
Take a counter-trend trade back to VWAP
⚠️ Avoid this in strong trending markets — best used in choppy or fading environments.
4️⃣ VWAP with Price Action for Structure
Pair VWAP with clean price action:
Mark support and resistance zones
Observe price behavior near VWAP
Look for confirmation: inside bars, rejection wicks, engulfing candles
🎯 This adds logic and clarity to your entries — no random trades.
🔍 Bonus VWAP Tips
Combine VWAP with:
CPR (Central Pivot Range) for confluence zones
Opening range for breakout bias
Volume profile to spot high interest areas
These combos create strong, repeatable trade setups.
✅ VWAP Recap: Why It Matters
Here’s a quick breakdown of how VWAP can sharpen your intraday trading game:
Bias Building: VWAP helps confirm whether the market structure is bullish or bearish, giving you a reliable directional bias.
Trend Filtering: It keeps you aligned with the current momentum by filtering out counter-trend trades.
Pullback Entries: VWAP acts as a dynamic support or resistance level, offering clean zones to enter trades during pullbacks.
Mean Reversion: In sideways or fading markets, VWAP becomes a natural magnet — allowing you to target price reversions.
Risk Management: It provides logical reference points for placing stop-losses and defining entry zones, adding clarity to your risk-reward planning.
✍️ Final Thoughts
VWAP may sound simple, but it brings real structure to intraday trading.
It tells you where volume met price, and that’s powerful. When used with price action, it creates a solid framework for:
Building directional bias
Finding clean entries
Managing risk like a pro
VWAP doesn’t predict — it reflects. And in trading, reflection is more useful than prediction.
🛎️ Respect VWAP. Trade with structure.
— Kiran Zatakia
USDCHF COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
EURUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
COT Data Commentary – EURUSD (Last 5 Weeks)
EURUSD climbed steadily from 1.11 to 1.15 over the past five weeks, and the COT reports consistently showed market makers increasing their long positions during this period. This steady accumulation aligns with the bullish price action and reinforces the strength behind the uptrend. Institutional interest seems to be backing the move, suggesting continued upside potential as long as positioning remains supportive.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
BTCUSD: Decoding the Price Action Through "Tape Reading"🚀 BTCUSD: Decoding the Price Action Through "Tape Reading" 🚀
Hey Traders,
Let's dive into a "tape reading" analysis of BTCUSD, breaking down the recent price movements and looking ahead. We've seen some fascinating patterns emerge, and understanding them could be key to our next moves.
🔍 A Look Back: The Bullish Flag Formations 🔍
Our journey begins on April 7th, 2025, with the establishment of a strong "Flag Pole" at $74,489.00. This was supported by a robust double bottom, setting the stage for what was to come.
First "Flag" Confirmation: We saw the first "Flag" form, confirmed by a powerful "Hammer" candle on April 20th, 2025. This Hammer, with its unique "bottom-less Marubozu" body, signaled significant underlying strength.
Second "Flag" Confirmation: Another "Flag" emerged, solidified by strong multi-day bottom support around $94,791.00. This resilience suggested continued upward momentum.
The Breakout: On May 8th, 2025, BTCUSD surged, breaking out of its previous patterns and entering a new "flag pole" formation.
Third "Flag" & All-Time High: May 15th, 2025, brought the third "Flag" formation, again supported by a "Hammer" and a bullish Marubozu. This momentum culminated in a breach of the $105,770.00 multi-month price level on May 20th, 2025, breaking the previous all-time high from December 17th, 2024! We then rocketed to a new all-time high of $112,000.
📉 Recent Developments: The Downtrend and Key Levels 📉
Since the all-time high, we've started to experience a shift:
Downtrend Begins: A downtrend initiated around May 22nd, 2025.
High-Low Formations: We observed a second high-low formation on May 27th, 2025, followed by another on June 9th, 2025.
Double Top & Hanging Man: A clear double top formation emerged, further supported by a "Hanging Man" candle on June 10th, 2025.
🔮 What's Next? The Critical Close 🔮
Today's candle close is absolutely paramount! As of now, the candle is still forming, but my current read suggests a potential move to fill the wick of the June 13th, 2025, "Hammer" candle.
The direction BTCUSD takes – North or South – will largely be dictated by how today's candle closes. This will be our prime dominant signal.
Monthly Candle Perspective:
Interestingly, the Monthly candle is showing similar "Flag" patterns. Check out the chart here for a broader perspective:
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Are you seeing the same patterns?
Trade safe!
_________________________________________________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
MARKET TECHNICAL BREAK DOWN FOR 16TH TO 20TH JUNE📊 Market Technical Breakdown – EURUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD & BTCUSDT 🔍
Traders,
Get ready for this week’s precision-driven analysis across four major markets:
✅ EURUSD – Is the euro gaining strength or facing more downside?
✅ AUDUSD – Key zones to watch as the Aussie reacts to USD data.
✅ XAUUSD (Gold) – Will gold hold strong or give in to bearish pressure?
✅ BTCUSDT – Bitcoin’s momentum shift: Are bulls still in control?
This breakdown covers:
🔹 Clean chart analysis
🔹 Key levels (support & resistance)
🔹 Trade ideas with potential entries & exits
🔹 My personal trading insight for each pair
🎯 Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned trader, this breakdown will help sharpen your bias and build confidence in your trades.
👉 Watch the video till the end to catch all setups, confirmations, and bonus tips for the week.
Drop a comment if you found it helpful or want to see a pair included in the next breakdown!
when Jerome says spike, the markets asks how low/high"Watch what they do, but also how they say it."
In the high-stakes world of central banking, few things move markets like the subtle wording of a Fed statement, But beyond the headlines and soundbites, one market absorbs this information faster—and with greater clarity—than almost any other: the bond market.
💬 What Is "Fed Speak"?
"Fed speak" refers to the nuanced and often deliberately vague language used by U.S. Federal Reserve officials when communicating policy expectations. It includes:
FOMC statements
Dot plot projections
Press conferences
Individual speeches from Fed officials
nerdy tip: the Fed aims to influence expectations without committing to specific outcomes, maintaining flexibility while steering market psychology.
📈 The Bond Market as a Decoder
The bond market, particularly the U.S. Treasury market, is where real-time interpretation of Fed policy plays out. Here's how it typically reacts:
1. Short-Term Yields (2Y, 3M) = Fed Expectation Barometer
These are the most sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations. If the Fed sounds hawkish (more rate hikes), short-term yields jump. If dovish (hinting cuts), they fall. At the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y) experienced a modest but clear reaction:
Just before the release, yields were hovering around 3.79%.
In the first hour following the 2:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC+2) statement, the yield ticked up by approximately +8 basis points, temporarily reaching about 3.87%.
Later that day, it eased back to around 3.79%, ending the day roughly unchanged—a sharp, immediate spike followed by a reversion.
2. Long-Term Yields (10Y, 30Y) = Growth + Inflation Expectations
Longer-dated yields reflect how the market sees the economy unfolding over time. After a Fed speech:
Rising long-term yields = stronger growth/inflation expected
Falling yields = fears of recession, disinflation, or policy over-tightening
3. The Yield Curve = Market's Policy Verdict
One of the best tools to read the bond market's verdict is the yield curve—specifically, the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields.
Steepening curve → Market thinks growth is picking up (Fed may be behind the curve)
Flattening or Inversion → Market believes the Fed is too aggressive, risking a slowdown or recession
📉 Example: After Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in 2022, the 2Y-10Y spread inverted deeply—markets were pricing in recession risks despite a strong Fed tone.
🧠 Why Traders Must Watch Bonds After Fed Speak
🪙 FX Traders:
Higher yields = stronger USD (carry trade advantage)
Falling yields = weaker USD (lower return for holding)
📈 Equity Traders:
Rising yields = pressure on tech/growth stocks (higher discount rates)
Falling yields = relief rally in risk assets
📊 Macro Traders:
The MOVE Index (bond volatility) often spikes around FOMC events
Forward guidance shifts = big rotation opportunities (e.g., bonds > gold > dollar)
(BONUS NERDY TIP) 🔍 How to Analyze Fed Speak Through Bonds
✅ Step 1: Watch the 2Y Yield
First responder to new rate expectations.
✅ Step 2: Check the Fed Funds Futures
Compare market pricing pre- and post-statement.
✅ Step 3: Look at Yield Curve Movement
Steepening or inversion? That’s the market’s macro take.
✅ Step 4: Track TLT or 10Y Yield on Your Chart
Bond ETFs or Treasury yields reveal sentiment instantly.
🧭 Final Nerdy Thought : Bonds React First, Talk Later
When the Fed speaks, don't just read the words. Read the yields. The bond market is often the first to interpret what the Fed really means—and the first to price in what comes next.
So next FOMC meeting, instead of watching only Powell’s facial expressions or CNBC pundits, open a chart of the 2Y and 10Y. That’s where the smart money’s listening.
put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
courtesy of : @TradingView
Most Traders React to Markets. The Best Anticipate Them.Most Traders React to Markets. The Best Anticipate Them.
Hard truth:
You're always one step behind because you trade reactively.
You can’t win a race if you're always responding to moves already made.
Here's how reactive trading burns your edge:
- You chase breakouts after they've happened, entering at the peak.
- You panic-sell into downturns because you didn't anticipate.
- You miss major moves because you're looking backward, not forward.
🎯 The fix?
Develop anticipatory trading habits. Identify scenarios in advance, set clear triggers, and act decisively when probabilities align - not after the market confirms.
TrendGo provides structure for anticipation - not reaction.
🔍 Stop responding, start anticipating. Your account will thank you.
Circle’s IPO and the Crypto Listing Wave: The Market EntersOn June 14, 2025, the U.S. stock market witnessed a pivotal moment for the crypto industry. Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin and a major player in the sector, successfully went public. Shares opened at $31 and soared to over $134 by the end of the first trading day—an explosive 330% gain.
This isn’t just a one-off success. It marks the beginning of a new chapter: the public crypto era, where leading crypto companies are stepping into the spotlight of traditional finance.
Why It Matters
Circle’s IPO signals the maturation of the crypto market. Just three years ago, crypto companies were seen as high-risk, unregulated tech startups. Now, they’re structured fintech firms with clear business models, institutional backing, and regulatory compliance.
Who’s Next in Line
Following Circle, a wave of major crypto firms is preparing for their own IPOs:
eToro – the social trading platform with crypto features has finalized its SPAC merger and is set to debut on NASDAQ.
Gemini – the exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins filed for an IPO in mid-May.
Galaxy Digital and Ripple – both confirmed listing plans for the second half of 2025.
Kraken is exploring a listing in Europe, where requirements are more flexible than in the U.S.
These companies are waiting for the right moment—regulatory clarity, growing interest in crypto ETFs, and progress in U.S. Congress (with the CLARITY and GENIUS bills gaining momentum).
What It Means for the Industry
Increased Investor Trust – Public companies must disclose financials, pass audits, and comply with regulations. This builds confidence in the broader crypto sector.
Institutional Capital Inflow – IPOs unlock access to capital from pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers that cannot invest in private crypto startups.
Marketing Power – Going public draws media attention and boosts brand awareness. Every IPO is a PR win for the entire industry.
Risks and Challenges
Regulatory Uncertainty – Despite progress, the SEC could change direction, especially with potential political shifts.
Overvaluation Concerns – Circle’s stock is already raising eyebrows, with a P/E ratio over 200 and trading volume growing faster than revenue.
Crypto Market Dependency – If crypto prices crash, the valuations of these companies could quickly collapse.
What’s Next
Expect up to 10 more crypto IPOs over the next 6–12 months, including players in DeFi, blockchain infrastructure, and Web3. This is the next stage in crypto’s journey toward mainstream legitimacy.
What was once the domain of tech rebels and early adopters is now becoming a business—with a stock ticker and quarterly earnings. And that changes everything.
Wyckoff Up-Thrust - This is how to identify using Speed indexClassic Wyckoff Up-Thrust formation, this is how to read it using Speed Index (annotations in sync with the chart):
1. Fib Area - this is where sellers might come in
2. FU - Fast Up wave with SI 0.4F
3. Next up wave with an abnormal SI of 1.0S while the average speed at 0.5, which means price has a hard time to move up (more sellers on the up move). Following the up wave on the down move we have double Short signals WU-Wyckoff Up-Thrust and PRS-Plutus Reversal Short and this where we enter.
I hope this was helpful. Enjoy!
Learn 6 Common Beginner Trading Mistakes (FOREX, GOLD)
In the today's post, we will discuss very common beginner's mistakes in trading that you should avoid.
1. No trading plan 📝
That is certainly the TOP 1 mistake. I don't know why it happens but 99% of newbies assume that they don't need a trading plan.
It is more than enough for them to watch a couple of educational videos, read some books about trading and Voilà when a good setup appears they can easily recognize and trade it without a plan.
Guys, I guarantee you that you will blow your trading account in maximum 2 months if you keep thinking like that. Trading plan is the essential part of every trading approach, so build one and follow that strictly.
2. Overtrading 💱
That mistake comes from a common newbies' misconception: they think that in order to make money in trading, they should trade a lot. The more they trade, the higher are the potential gains.
The same reasoning appears when they choose a signal service: the more trades a signal provider shares, the better his signals are supposed to be.
However, the truth is that good trades are very rare and your goal as a trader is to recognize and trade only the best setups. While the majority of the trading opportunities are risky and not profitable.
3. Emotional trading 😤
There are 2 ways to make a trading decision: to make it objectively following the rules of your trading plan or to follow the emotions.
The second option is the main pick of the newbies.
The intuition, fear, desire are their main drivers. And such an approach is of course doomed to a failure.
And we will discuss the emotional trading in details in the next 2 sections.
4. Having no patience ⏳
Patience always pays. That is the trader's anthem.
However, in practice, it is extremely hard to keep holding the trade that refuses to reach the target, that comes closer and closer to a stop loss level, that stuck around the entry level.
Once we are in a trade, we want the price to go directly to our goal without any delay. And the more we wait, the harder it is to keep waiting. The impatience makes traders close their trades preliminary, missing good profits .
5. Greed 🤑
Greed is your main and worst enemy in this game.
It will pursue you no matter how experienced you are.
The desire to get maximum from every move, to not miss any pip of profit, will be your permanent obstacle.
Greed will also pursue you after you close the profitable trades. No matter how much you win, how many good winning trades you catch in a row, you always want more. And that sense main lead you to making irrational, bad trading decision.
6. Big Risks 🛑
Why to calculate lot size for the trade?
Why even bother about risk management?
These are the typical thoughts of the newbies.
Newbie traders completely underestimate the risks involved in trading and for that reason they are risking big.
I heard so many times these stories, when a trading deposit of a trader is wiped out with a one single bad trade.
Never ever risk big, especially if you just started.
Start with a very conservative approach and risk a tiny little portion of your trading account per trade.
Of course there are a lot more mistakes to discuss.
However, the ones that I listed above at the most common
and I am kindly recommending you to fix them before you start trading with a substantial amount of money.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step________________________________________
🏆 Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step Practical Guide
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📌 Step 1: Overview and Goal
The goal is to build a neural network system to predict intraday short-term gold price movements—typically forecasting the next 15 to 30 minutes.
________________________________________
📈 Step 2: Choosing Indicators (TradingView Equivalents)
Key indicators for intraday gold trading:
• 📊 Moving Averages (EMA, SMA)
• 📏 Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• 🌀 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
• 📉 Bollinger Bands
• 📦 Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
• ⚡ Average True Range (ATR)
________________________________________
🗃 Step 3: Data Acquisition (Vectors and Matrices)
Use Python's yfinance to fetch intraday gold data:
import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
data = yf.download('GC=F', period='30d', interval='15m')
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🔧 Step 4: Technical Indicator Calculation
Use Python’s pandas_ta library to generate all required indicators:
import pandas_ta as ta
data = ta.ema(data , length=20)
data = ta.ema(data , length=50)
data = ta.rsi(data , length=14)
macd = ta.macd(data )
data = macd
data = macd
bbands = ta.bbands(data , length=20)
data = bbands
data = bbands
data = bbands
data = ta.atr(data , data , data , length=14)
data.dropna(inplace=True)
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🧹 Step 5: Data Preprocessing and Matrix Creation
Standardize your features and shape data for neural networks:
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
import numpy as np
features =
scaler = StandardScaler()
data_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(data )
def create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10):
X, y = ,
for i in range(len(data_scaled) - window_size - 1):
X.append(data_scaled )
y.append(data .iloc )
return np.array(X), np.array(y)
X, y = create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10)
________________________________________
🤖 Step 6: Neural Network Construction with TensorFlow
Use LSTM neural networks for sequential, time-series prediction:
import tensorflow as tf
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
from tensorflow.keras.layers import LSTM, Dense, Dropout
model = Sequential( , X.shape )),
Dropout(0.2),
LSTM(32, activation='relu'),
Dense(1)
])
model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse')
________________________________________
🎯 Step 7: Training the Neural Network
history = model.fit(X, y, epochs=50, batch_size=32, validation_split=0.2)
________________________________________
📊 Step 8: Evaluating Model Performance
Visualize actual vs. predicted prices:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
predictions = model.predict(X)
plt.plot(y, label='Actual Price')
plt.plot(predictions, label='Predicted Price')
plt.xlabel('Time Steps')
plt.ylabel('Gold Price')
plt.legend()
plt.show()
________________________________________
🚦 Step 9: Developing a Trading Strategy
Translate predictions into trading signals:
def trade_logic(predicted, current, threshold=0.3):
diff = predicted - current
if diff > threshold:
return "Buy"
elif diff < -threshold:
return "Sell"
else:
return "Hold"
latest_data = X .reshape(1, X.shape , X.shape )
predicted_price = model.predict(latest_data)
current_price = data .iloc
decision = trade_logic(predicted_price, current_price)
print("Trading Decision:", decision)
________________________________________
⚙️ Step 10: Real-Time Deployment
Automate the model for live trading via broker APIs (pseudocode):
while market_open:
live_data = fetch_live_gold_data()
live_data_processed = preprocess(live_data)
prediction = model.predict(live_data_processed)
decision = trade_logic(prediction, live_data )
execute_order(decision)
________________________________________
📅 Step 11: Backtesting
Use frameworks like Backtrader or Zipline to validate your strategy:
import backtrader as bt
class NNStrategy(bt.Strategy):
def next(self):
if self.data.predicted > self.data.close + threshold:
self.buy()
elif self.data.predicted < self.data.close - threshold:
self.sell()
cerebro = bt.Cerebro()
cerebro.addstrategy(NNStrategy)
# Add data feeds and run cerebro
cerebro.run()
________________________________________
🔍 Practical Use-Cases
• ⚡ Momentum Trading: EMA crossovers, validated by neural network.
• 🔄 Mean Reversion: Trade at Bollinger Band extremes, validated with neural network predictions.
• 🌩️ Volatility-based: Use ATR plus neural net for optimal entry/exit timing.
________________________________________
🛠 Additional Recommendations
• Frameworks: TensorFlow/Keras, PyTorch, scikit-learn
• Real-time monitoring and risk management are crucial—use volatility indicators!
________________________________________
📚 Final Thoughts
This practical guide arms you to build, deploy, and manage a neural network-based intraday gold trading system—from data acquisition through backtesting—ensuring you have the tools for robust, data-driven, and risk-managed trading strategies.
________________________________________
It Wasn’t on a Chart. It Was in My JournalYou don’t become consistent by learning more setups. You become consistent by learning more about yourself.
✍️ The Day I Started Journaling, I Stopped Guessing
I used to chase charts like they owed me something.One moment I was confident. The next, I was doubting everything, not because the market betrayed me, but because I wasn’t keeping track of who I was becoming .
Then I started journaling.
Not just logging wins and losses, but writing what I felt, what I saw, where I rushed, and why I broke my own rules. It changed everything.
What Journaling Gave Me (That Charts Alone Couldn’t)
1. Clarity Over Chaos
Every trade became a lesson. I stopped reacting and started reviewing.
2. Accountability Over Emotion
Writing “I entered out of fear of missing out” hits different when you see it five times in a row. I couldn’t lie to myself anymore.
3. Discipline Over Drama
No more revenge trades. No more “just one more” trades. Journaling made me pause, and that pause saved me more than any setup ever could
It’s Not Just a Journal. It’s a Mirror.
Most traders document price. Few document themselves. And yet that’s where the edge lives, not in more indicators, but in more self-awareness.
My Advice to Any Trader Trying to Break Through
Don’t just journal for results . Journal to understand who you are in the market. Your wins will mean more, and your losses will teach more. And if you're consistent with it, your growth won’t just be measurable. It’ll be undeniable.
The best setups won’t save you if your mindset is undisciplined.And the best mentors can’t help you if you don’t study your own patterns.
Journaling isn’t just about logging trades.It’s about documenting your evolution as a trader, from reactive to intentional, from hopeful to professional. So, if you’re serious about growth: Don’t just screenshot your wins, start writing your journey. That’s where the edge really begins.
Mitigation Block in Forex Trading: What It Is and How to Use It?What a Mitigation Block Is, and How You Can Use It When Trading Forex?
Understanding specific market mechanisms like mitigation blocks may enhance strategic decision-making. This article delves into the concept of mitigation blocks, detailing their definition, function, and practical application within forex.
Definition and Function of a Mitigation Block
A mitigation block in forex trading refers to a specific order block on a chart that indicates where previous movements have stalled and reversed, marking it as a potential area for future market turns. This concept within the Smart Money framework is crucial for traders looking to manage their positions by taking advantage of strategic entry and exit points.
The idea behind these areas is rooted in the dynamics of supply and demand within forex. When a currency pair reaches a level where buyers or sellers have previously entered the market in force, causing a reversal, it suggests a potential repeat of such actions when the price returns to the area.
Characteristics and How to Identify a Mitigation Block
Mitigation blocks can be bullish or bearish, each with distinct characteristics:
- Bearish Mitigation Block: This type forms during an uptrend and is identified by a significant peak followed by a decline and a failed attempt to reach or surpass the previous high, creating a lower high. When prices drop below the previous low, the order block above the low becomes mitigation. It may be characterised by an increase in selling volume as the price approaches the level, signalling resistance and a potential downward reversal.
- Bullish Mitigation Block: Conversely, a bullish type is established during a downtrend. It is characterised by a significant trough, followed by a rise to form a higher low, and a failure to drop below the previous low. As the pair moves up, the order block below the high marks mitigation one. This area often shows an increase in buying volume as the price approaches, indicating support and a potential upward reversal.
Mitigation Block vs Breaker Block
Mitigation and breaker blocks are both significant in identifying potential trend reversals in forex trading, but they have distinct characteristics that set them apart. A mitigation block forms after a failure swing, which occurs when the market attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. The pattern indicates a loss of momentum and a potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction.
On the other hand, a breaker block is characterised by the formation of a new high or low before the market structure is broken, indicating that liquidity has been taken. This means that although the trend initially looked set to continue, it quickly reverses and breaks structure.
In effect, a breaker appears when the market takes liquidity beyond a swing point before reversing the trend. A mitigation appears when the price doesn’t move beyond the trend’s most recent high or low, instead plotting a lower high or higher low before reversing the trend.
How to Use Mitigation Blocks in Trading
Areas of mitigation in trading can be essential tools for identifying potential trend reversals and entry points. When they align with a trader's analysis that anticipates a reversal at a certain level, it can serve as a robust confirmation for entry.
Traders can effectively utilise these zones by simply placing a limit order within the area once it is considered valid. Validation occurs after a new peak or trough is established following the initial failure swing that forms the mitigation area.
If a liquidity void or fair-value gap is present, the trader may look for such a gap to be filled before their limit order is triggered, potentially offering a tighter entry. Stop losses might be placed beyond the failure swing or the most extreme point.
Furthermore, if a mitigation block is identified on a higher timeframe, traders can refine their entry by switching to a lower timeframe. This approach allows for a tighter entry point and potentially better risk management, as it offers more granular insight into the momentum around the area.
Common Mistakes and Limitations
While these blocks are valuable for forex trading, they come with potential pitfalls and limitations that traders should know.
- Overreliance: Relying solely on mitigation blocks without corroborating with other trading indicators can lead to misjudged entries and exits.
- Ignoring Context: Using these zones without considering the broader market conditions may result in trading against a prevailing strong trend.
- Misinterpretation: Incorrect identification can lead to erroneous trading decisions, especially for less experienced traders.
- False Signals: Mitigation blocks can sometimes appear to signal a reversal but instead lead to a continuation of the trend, trapping traders in unfavourable positions.
The Bottom Line
Understanding mitigation blocks offers traders a strategic edge in navigating the forex market. They can be vital for recognising potential price reversals and improving trading outcomes.
FAQs
What Is a Mitigation Block?
A mitigation block in forex trading is an order block that identifies potential reversal points. It signals where a currency pair has previously stalled, indicating strong buying or selling pressure, suggesting a potential for similar reactions in future encounters with these levels.
How Do You Identify a Mitigation Block?
Mitigation blocks are identified by analysing charts for areas where previous highs or lows were not surpassed, leading to a reversal. Traders look for a sequence of movements, including a swing high or low followed by a retracement that fails to exceed the previous swing.
What Is the Difference Between a Breaker Block and a Mitigation Block?
While both indicate potential reversals, a breaker block forms when the price makes a new high or low before reversing, suggesting a temporary continuation of the trend. In contrast, a mitigation block forms without creating a new extreme, indicating a direct loss of momentum and an immediate potential for reversal.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
#AN007: Israel Attacks Iran, What's Happening? in Forex
Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method, which allows me to analyze and operate in the Forex world as if I were a Hedge Fund or an Investment Bank. Today I want to talk to you about the relevant news of the last few hours, namely Israel's attack on Iran.
⚠️ What happened
Israel launched a massive preemptive air strike on numerous nuclear and military installations in Iran, including sites in Tehran and Natanz. Among the victims were key figures such as Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami and several high-profile nuclear scientists.
The operation was completely "unilateral", with no direct involvement of the United States, according to official sources
reuters.com. However, it was previously coordinated with Washington, which received notification before the attack.
Iran has responded by announcing that it will respond “hard and decisively” and has begun planning missile and drone strikes against Israeli targets, with a response that could come as early as the next few days.
🌍 Global reactions
Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the UN have expressed alarm and called for maximum restraint.
Oil prices have reacted with a surge: WTI +9% due to fears of supply disruptions.
💱 Impact on Forex
↑ Oil prices → Strengthens CAD, NOK, and commodity currencies in general.
Global risk-off mode → Benefits safe haven currencies such as JPY, CHF, and temporarily also USD.
Rising geopolitical risk → USD may have swings: drops in risk-off phases, but bounces as a safe-haven.
EUR under pressure due to general risk aversion and physical demand for USD, CHF, JPY.
Finally, emerging markets (BRL, MXN, INR) could suffer high volatility: outflows towards safer assets.
🧩 Operational focus for Forex traders
Monitor oil and US yield bonds: rising signals could push commodity currencies.
Follow movements on USD/JPY and USD/CHF: potential breakouts in case of escalation.
Watch out for volatility on EUR/USD: the geopolitical crisis rewards USD and CHF.
Stay ready for emerging currencies to react: possible flash crashes or speculative rebounds.
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