Comprehensive Guide to Bull and Bear Flag PatternsBull and bear flag patterns are some of the most reliable and widely used chart patterns in technical analysis.
These patterns are particularly effective for traders who prefer trading with the trend, offering clear entry and exit points.
They appear frequently in trending markets and represent short consolidations before the trend resumes.
In this guide, we’ll cover the characteristics of bull and bear flags, trading strategies, and how to enhance your flag trading using multi-timeframe analysis.
What Are Bull and Bear Flag Patterns?
Bull and bear flags are continuation patterns, meaning they signal the potential for a price move to continue in the direction of the prior trend after a brief consolidation or retracement.
Bull Flag: This pattern occurs during an uptrend. After a sharp rise in price (the flagpole), the price begins to consolidate within a downward-sloping channel (the flag). A breakout to the upside typically follows, continuing the trend.
Bear Flag: In a downtrend, after a strong decline (the flagpole), the price consolidates in an upward-sloping channel (the flag). When the price breaks downward, it continues the downtrend.
These patterns are valuable for traders as they provide clear entry signals when the price breaks out of the flag's consolidation range.
Anatomy of a Flag Pattern
The flag pattern consists of two main components:
The Flagpole: This is the sharp price movement that occurs in the direction of the trend. It signifies strong momentum and establishes the direction in which the trend is moving.
The Flag: The flag is a period of consolidation or retracement that follows the flagpole. The price moves within parallel or slightly converging trendlines and typically retraces about 30% to 50% of the flagpole. The flag represents a pause in the market before the trend resumes.
Key Characteristics:
Bullish Flag: Occurs in an uptrend, and the consolidation takes place in a downward-sloping channel.
Bearish Flag: Occurs in a downtrend, and the consolidation takes place in an upward-sloping channel.
Volume (if you trade Crypto or stocks) tends to decrease during the consolidation phase and increases significantly at the breakout point, confirming the continuation of the trend.
Trading Strategies for Bull and Bear Flags
While bull and bear flags are relatively simple to identify, using different strategies can help enhance the effectiveness of trades. Here’s a breakdown of the most effective approaches to trading these patterns:
1. Breakout Strategy
The breakout strategy is a straightforward approach that traders use to enter a position when the price breaks out of the flag's consolidation. This marks the continuation of the trend and offers a high-probability setup.
Entry: Enter the trade when the price breaks above the upper trendline of a bull flag or below the lower trendline of a bear flag.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop just outside the flag’s opposite boundary (below the flag for bull flags or above for bear flags).
Take-Profit: Measure the length of the flagpole and project it from the breakout point. This will give you a target for where the price could potentially move.
2. Multi-Timeframe Strategy
The multi-timeframe strategy involves using multiple timeframes to analyze the flag pattern. This strategy can provide a more robust confirmation for entering the trade, as it gives you a broader perspective on the overall trend.
Higher Timeframe Analysis: Begin by analyzing a higher timeframe (e.g., the daily chart). Look for a strong trend, either bullish or bearish, and identify if a flag pattern is forming within this trend.
Lower Timeframe Confirmation: Once the pattern is identified on the higher timeframe, zoom in on a lower timeframe (e.g., the 1-hour or 4-hour chart) for precise entry points. Look for the price to break out of the flag pattern on the lower timeframe, confirming the trend continuation.
Why Use This Strategy?
Multi-timeframe analysis reduces the risk of false breakouts by confirming the broader trend on a higher timeframe.
It allows you to refine your entries by using a lower timeframe for greater precision.
Note:
A critical benefit of this strategy is its ability to significantly enhance the risk-to-reward (R:R) ratio, with the example presented achieving an impressive 1:5 ratio. This means that for every unit of risk taken, the potential reward is five times greater—a highly efficient use of capital and risk management.
3. Pullback Entry Strategy
The pullback entry strategy offers a more conservative approach to trading flag patterns. Instead of entering at the initial breakout, this strategy waits for a pullback toward the breakout level to confirm the trend’s continuation.
Entry: Enter the trade after the breakout has occurred but wait for the price to pull back to the flag’s trendline. This pullback gives you a better risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop just below the flag’s trendline for a bull flag or above it for a bear flag.
Take-Profit: As with the breakout strategy, project the flagpole's length from the breakout point for your target.
When Not to Trade Flag Patterns
While flag patterns are reliable, they are not always guaranteed to work. There are specific conditions when you should avoid trading them:
Choppy or Sideways Markets: Flags perform best in trending markets. If the market is choppy or moving sideways, flag patterns are less likely to lead to a strong breakout.
Weak Flags: If the flag's consolidation is too broad or the market loses momentum during the consolidation, the breakout may be weak or fail altogether.
Conclusion
Bull and bear flag patterns are essential tools in any trader's toolkit, offering high-probability setups in trending markets.
By understanding how to spot them, applying different trading strategies, and incorporating multi-timeframe analysis, traders can enhance their chances of success.
Final Tip: Always combine flag patterns with good risk management techniques, such as proper stop-loss placement and positive risk:reward.
Community ideas
How to Identify Significant Liquidity Zone in Gold Trading
A liquidity zone is a specific area on a price chart where the market orders concentrate.
In this article, I will teach you how to identify the most significant liquidity zones on Gold chart beyond historical levels.
Liquidity Zones
First, in brief, let's discuss where liquidity concentrates.
Market liquidity concentrates on:
1. Psychological levels
Above, you can see a clear concentration of liquidity around a 2500 psychological level on Gold price chart.
2. Fibonacci levels
In the example above, we can see how 382 retracement of a major bullish impulse attracts market liquidity on Gold XAUUSD daily time frame.
3. Horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines.
In that case, an area based on a classic support/resistance level was a clear source of market liquidity on Gold.
Significant Liquidity Zone
A significant liquidity zone will be the area where psychological levels, Fibonacci levels, horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines match .
Please, note that such an area may combine the indicators, or any other technical tools.
Such zones can be easily found even beyond the historic levels.
Look at a price chart on Gold on a daily.
Though the market has just updated the ATH, we can spot the next potentially significant liquidity zone with technical analysis.
We see a perfect intersection of a rising trend line, 2600 psychological level based on round numbers and a Fibonacci extension confluence of 2 recent bullish impulses.
These technical tools will compose a significant liquidity zone.
The idea is that Gold was rallying up because of the excess of demand on the market. We will assume that selling orders will be placed within that liquidity zone and the excess of demand will be absorbed by the supply.
It will make the price AT LEAST stop growing and potentially will trigger a correctional movement.
Learn to recognize such liquidity zones, it will help you a lot in predicting Gold price movements.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Solo Trading in a Frenzied Market: Avoiding the Crowd TrapIn the world of trading, the crowd effect is a serious psychological obstacle that often causes traders to lose their way. This phenomenon, where traders make decisions based on the majority's actions rather than their own analysis, can result in impulsive buying or selling. As many traders point out, such decisions often end in financial losses.
📍 Understanding the Crowd Effect
The crowd effect is based on the tendency of people to obey the actions of the majority. In the trading arena, it can manifest itself when traders jump on the bandwagon and buy assets during an uptrend in the market or hastily sell them during a downtrend due to panic.
While trend trading may be logical - after all, if most people are buying, it may seem unwise to resist the flow - there is a delicate balance to be struck here. Joining a long-term uptrend can lead to buying assets at their peak. This is especially evident in cryptocurrency markets, where FOMO can cause prices to rise artificially, allowing an experienced market maker to capitalize on these moments by selling off assets at peak levels.
📍 The Dangers of the Crowd Effect for Traders
• Impulsive Decision-Making: Crowd-driven decisions are rarely based on careful analysis, increasing the risk of costly mistakes.
• Ignoring Personal Strategy: Traders often abandon their trading plans in the heat of mass panic or excitement, forgetting the essential disciplines that guide their decisions.
• Overestimating Risks: Following the herd can lead to overextended positions in the expectation of “guaranteed” profits, further increasing potential losses.
• Market Bubbles and Crashes: Collective crowd behavior can lead to market bubbles and sharp declines, negatively affecting all participants.
📍 Examples of the Crowd Effect
▸ Bull Market and FOMO: During a strong uptrend, new traders may be attracted by the sight of other people buying assets. They often join the frenzy at the peak of prices and then take losses when the market corrects.
▸ Bear Market and Panic Selling: During a downturn, fear can prompt traders to sell off massively, minimizing their ability to recoup losses in a recovering market.
▸ Social Media Influence: In today's digital age, the opinions of self-proclaimed market “gurus” can prompt uncritical investment decisions. Traders may buy trending assets without proper analysis, leading to losses when prices inevitably fall.
📍 Why Traders Give in to Crowd Influence
Several psychological factors underlie why traders may succumb to the crowd effect:
▪️ Fear of Being Wrong: Traders derive a sense of security by aligning with the majority, even when it contradicts their logic.
▪️ Desire for Social Approval: The inclination to conform can lead to decisions based on collective trends rather than independent analysis.
▪️ Emotional Traps: High volatility can spread feelings of euphoria or panic, swaying traders away from rational decision-making.
▪️ Cognitive Distortions: The phenomenon of groupthink reinforces the false belief that popular decisions are invariably correct.
▪️ Lack of Confidence: Inexperienced traders, particularly, may align themselves with the crowd out of insecurity in their own judgment.
📍 Steps to Mitigate the Crowd Effect
🔹 Develop a Clear Trading Strategy: Create and adhere to a trading plan that reflects your risk tolerance, and trust it even when market participants act differently.
🔹 Avoid Emotional Decision-Making: Base your trading on systematic analysis rather than fleeting market sentiment. Take a moment to pause and assess your emotions before making critical choices.
🔹 Limit External Influences: Steer clear of forums and social media during volatile periods; avoid following advice without verifiable research.
🔹 Employ Objective Analysis Tools: Lean on technical and fundamental analysis instead of crowd sentiment. Identify patterns and levels for entry and exit rather than moving with the trending tide.
🔹 Enhance Self-Confidence: Fortify your market knowledge and trading strategy to reduce reliance on crowd validation. Keep a trading journal to document your successes and the soundness of your decisions.
🔹 Manage Risks Wisely: Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Segment your capital to mitigate the impact of any sizable losses.
🔹 Assess Crowd Behavior: Use indicators, such as market sentiment and trading volume, to gauge the crowd's actions, but retain the independence of thought. Remember that crowds can often misjudge trend reversals.
📍 Conclusion
The crowd effect poses a serious threat to rational decision-making in trading. However, through disciplined strategies, thorough analysis, and effective emotion management, traders can minimize adverse impacts. Remember that successful trading is rooted in objectivity and independent judgment rather than blind conformity.
“The market favors traders who think independently instead of conforming to the crowd.”
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Example of how to select a volatility period
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
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The date that I am talking about as a volatility period refers to a period in which there may be a movement that may change the trend.
In other words, it means that there is a high possibility of creating a new wave as the volatility period passes.
Basically, the volatility period is expressed as an issue regarding the coin (token) or a global issue, but the volatility period that I am talking about is expressed by the support and resistance points and trend lines drawn on the chart.
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The support and resistance points refer to the points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
In other words, they refer to the points of the HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), BW(100), and OBV indicators displayed on each chart.
When indicating support and resistance points, indicators connected to the current price candle are unconditionally drawn.
Also, indicators that are not expressed up to the current price candle are drawn starting from the one with the longest horizontal line.
Among indicators that are not expressed up to the current candle, horizontal lines expressed less than 5 candles are not drawn if possible.
If there are support and resistance lines that are expressed too closely, the support and resistance lines that are closest to the current candle are used.
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The StochRSI indicator is used to draw a trend line.
When the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold or overbought zone and reverses, that is, when a peak is created, those points are connected and expressed.
Therefore, the peak created in the 20~80 range of the StochRSI indicator is ignored.
Therefore, the trend line is created by connecting the high and low points of the StochRSI indicator.
However, the high point connection line connects the opening price of the falling candle.
If there is no bearish candle at the peak of the StochRSI indicator, move to the right and use the first bearish candle.
When drawing the trendline for the first time, it is better to draw it from the vicinity where the current wave started.
If the StochRSI indicator has two peaks in the overbought or oversold area, use both when it leaves the overbought or oversold area and then re-enters it.
Otherwise, use only one peak at a time.
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Draw support and resistance points and trendlines on each chart.
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Find and mark points where trend lines or support and resistance points intersect at least two times.
The importance is determined in the order of trend lines drawn on the 1M chart > trend lines drawn on the 1W chart > trend lines drawn on the 1D chart.
Therefore, in order to express a period of volatility with a trend line drawn on the 1D chart, there must be at least two intersecting points.
In other words, there must be at least two intersecting points when indicating a period of volatility, such as when trend lines intersect each other or when trend lines intersect support and resistance points.
In addition, support and resistance points are also important in the order of 1M > 1W > 1D charts, so when they intersect with support and resistance points, they are selected according to this importance.
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Then, if you hide the trend line, you will complete the chart showing the period of volatility.
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When drawing for the first time,
1. When indicating support and resistance points, if you do not understand the arrangement of candles, it may be difficult to select.
2. It may be difficult to select the peak and candle of the StochRSI indicator.
3. It may be difficult to select which intersection point to select when indicating the volatility period.
Since you cannot get used to everything at once, it is recommended to draw and observe one by one and try to solve the difficulty of the next step once you get used to it.
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The StochRSI indicator on this chart is an indicator whose formula has been changed from the basic StochRSI indicator.
Therefore, if possible, it is recommended to use the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
If you use your own StochRSI indicator,
Settings: 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D)
Source value: ohlc4
If you change the values above, it will be expressed similarly.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Do you really think hedge funds are using RSI?Back in the day when floor trading was a thing, cunning extroverts ruled the market by reading other people's mind and manipulating them, using their strategies against them face to face. When we stepped towards digital age, the upper hand transitioned towards people who were able to read the orderbook and decipher the intentions of the market participants, also manipulate them with their heavy limit orders. As the time progressed we become better at making the data accessible and some smart people invented their way of interpreting the market trough mathematical equations, which we call now "the indicators". As robots stepped into the game, the orderbook become too complicated for humans and the indicators and well established market formations remained as the last castle for traders. As it become more accesible trough platforms like tradingview more and more people started using indicator and even formation based strategies, which made it not work. The reason behind this paradox is that if we know a lot of people are using the same formula or pattern to take trading decisions, we can also use them as source of liquidity to execute our heavy transactions. So the indicators become the mask of the market makers. For example given the MM knows how an indicator is calculated, they also know what kind of price movement can make this indicator fire a signal and make traders step in. In most of the cases indicator based strategy backtests returns poor results and you can verify that by looking at almost every strategy published on tradingview that shows "realistic" performance aka no repaint no portfolio tricks etc, we see that they are not able to outrun the market. On the other hand a lot of people believes if we feed price and volume data to an Artificial Intelligence model, we got the money printing machine. I have been working on this idea since 4 years and I never met someone better than me in my field and specilization as a Computer Science Student at Georgia Tech and I tried eveything, trust me "everything" and it never worked out. So I knew that there is a missing piece candle sticks and volume are missing something, and I know what is it now: "orderflow"
When I first started learning about orderflow -around a month- I realized all of the indicators I did before including hundreds that I trade based on but not publish, are not explaning why the market moved and why the market can move or not, they are just my way of trying to make backtests work under the assumption if they did work they will work in the long run, law of big numbers. Conversly, the orderflow method is the first thing I encountered that answers questions like why and when and actually makes sense. I started consuming the whole online content like forums youtube books etc full time and got an actual understanding how market actually works. I got the cheapest subscription for the cheapest orderflow platform for 20 bucks just to give it a try and started analyzing historical data with tools footprint charts, delta-cumulative delta and volume profile. What I saw was the inside of the market, not only the results like candlesticks but rather the causation behind it. I made a mind map of all the information I gathered and come up with some strategies, and what is it? Something that works for the fist time in the last 4 years of my inhuman effort. I started forward testing with paper trading and it is going well so far.
What I am trying to say is that without knowing the story you cannot be the main charachter, learn orderflow and got rid of all of the bunch of funny lines on your screen. It is not the wholly grail, you still need to be smart and cautious, and psychologically strong when trading, but it is something that can make what you want to achieve possible.
So our bull targets done in crude oil This free new indicator helps to get accurate signals almost on all time frames and if you as me i use it on 15m chart normal candles , so lets talk about crude oil -
when to take trades now-
waiting for the bear signal between 5850-6200
if bear signal we can hold around 70 points tp with 20 sl
Prediction are simply gambling but depending on market situation it shows that market can go upto 6200 or more with 30% chances or else it can open gap down and and go till 6100 or 6110 or more with 50 % chances.
or it can break 6100 and give a bear signal around 6070 with 20% chances.
the indicator you seeing is totally free and will be available soon, keep following.
good luck
Trading Timeframes: Measured Moves and ContextIn the previous post, we introduced the concept of measured moves, a structured framework for estimating future price behavior. This method is based on the observation that each swing move tends to be similar in size to the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach offers a practical way to approximate the potential extension of a swing move.
A common question that arises is: which timeframe should you use for measured moves, and how do you choose the correct swing move? These questions open up a completely different and important topic.
Imagine analyzing a chart across three timeframes: daily, weekly, and monthly. You’ve projected a viable measured move on each chart. Now, ask yourself: which projection is the correct one? Where is the move most likely to play out?
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
The reality is that there is no singular “correct” answer. The appropriate measurement depends entirely on your purpose as a trader, the timeframe you operate in, and trading style.
The Fractal Nature of Price Action
Price action is fractal by nature. Regardless of whether you’re observing a 30-minute chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart, the price displayed is the same in real time. However, the purpose of charts is to provide context. Each timeframe offers a unique perspective on how price has developed. For example, a 5-minute chart may reveal details about intraday movements while a daily chart condenses those details into broader a broader structure and context.
These perspectives may align or contradict one another, they can confirm or challenge your biases. The key takeaway is that charts and timeframes are tools to contextualize price, not definitive answers.
Defining Your Trading Timeframe
To navigate the apparent contradictions between timeframes, start by defining your trading timeframe. This is where you analyze price structure, execute trades and define holding periods. This will answer the opening question: measured moves and other tools should in preference align with your trading timeframe.
In case one wants to consider context, for various reasons, then multiple timeframes can be utilized. These act as a complement, not replacement.
Here’s how different timeframes can be used for context.
Higher timeframe: Moving one timeframe up will compress the price data, providing a broader context, but at the expense of detail.
Lower Timeframe: Moving one timeframe down will reveal intricate details, but can introduce excessive noise.
The balance between these components should match your trading style. Without a clear and defined approach, there is a risk of confusion and contradictory biases.
The Concept of "Moving in Twos"
Another, more anecdotal observation in price movement is the idea of “moving in twos.” This concept suggests that price often moves in sequences of two swings: an impulse move, followed with a pullback, which then repeats.
There tends to be some price disruption after this has played out, but does not always imply that trend movement must stop after two moves. However, measured moves tend to align more reliably with these sequences.
While not a scientifically validated principle, this concept has been discussed by traders such as Al Brooks, Mack and more. It provides a practical heuristic for applying measured moves more consistently.
Practical Application
To apply these ideas, consider the following:
Define your trading timeframe. Use it as the primary basis for your measured move projections.
If needed, incorporate one higher or lower timeframe to balance context and detail. However, these additional perspectives should not overrule your primary focus.
Think in terms of “moving in twos.” Use this concept to locate sequences.
This post was about the relationship between timeframes and the fractal nature of price action. The focus is on our role as traders and how we decide to operate, rather than absolute answers. This might be clear to most, but if not, take some time to think about and define your trading style.
The Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in Trading
“The market doesn’t care about your emotions; it follows its own rules.”
One of the most critical aspects of successful trading is setting a stop loss and sticking to it. Here's why:
Protect Your Capital
Trading without a stop loss is like driving without brakes. A stop loss helps limit your losses and keeps your trading capital safe for future opportunities.
Stay Disciplined
Many traders make the mistake of moving their stop loss further away out of fear of being stopped out. This is a slippery slope that can lead to even larger losses. Stick to your plan, no matter what.
Remove Emotions from Trading
Fear and greed are your worst enemies. By predefining your stop loss, you eliminate emotional decision-making in the heat of the moment.
Focus on Risk Management
Before entering a trade, always ask yourself:
What’s my risk-reward ratio?
How much am I willing to lose if the trade goes against me?
Learn to Accept Losses
Losses are a natural part of trading. A stop loss isn’t a failure; it’s a tool to protect you and keep you in the game for the long term.
Key Tip:
Never remove your stop loss hoping the market will “come back.” Hope is not a strategy—discipline and planning are.
Let your emotions stay out of your trades. Protect your capital, trade your plan, and let the market do the rest.
Practical Guide to Building Profitable Trading StrategiesAfter reading this article, you'll understand the key elements needed to build a profitable trading system, identify potential flaws, and learn how to fix them for consistent results.
Four Essential Elements of an Effective Strategy
1. Trend Identification ("Should I buy or sell?") - 50% of success
The trend is the foundation of any strategy. To identify it, you can use tools such as moving averages, volume profiles (when volume accumulates above the current price, it signals a downtrend; when it accumulates below the price, it signals an uptrend), or even macroeconomic analysis, news sentiment, and crowd psychology for additional confirmation.
For example : If the 200 SMA indicates an uptrend, focus only on buying opportunities.
Tip : Avoid using multiple tools for the same purpose as conflicting signals can lead to confusion. One reliable tool per element is sufficient.
2. Key Level Identification ("Where should I enter the trade?") - 30% of success
This element helps to locate zones with the most favorable risk/reward (RR) ratio. Fibonacci levels, support/resistance zones, pivot points or smart money concepts can indicate whether the price is at a discount, premium or fair value.
For example : Pivot points can be used to identify levels such as the "pivot point" and the nearest support/resistance zones.
Tip : Your entry point should be supported by a support or resistance level, while the path to the take profit target should remain unobstructed.
3. Entry Signals ("When should I enter?") - 15% success rate
Entry signals can be determined by oscillators such as stochastics, candlestick patterns or volume spikes.
For example : When the price reaches a support zone and the Stochastic leaves the oversold area (crossing above the 20 level), this could be a signal to enter a long position.
Important: Signals only help with timing; they should not be the basis of your entire strategy.
4. Filters for accuracy - 10% of success
Filters improve the quality of trades by adding additional conditions. Examples include volatility (ATR), trend strength (ADX), volume or seasonal patterns.
Example : Volume can confirm the strength of a trend or a potential reversal. For example, if the price reaches a support level after a correction and volume spikes, this could indicate buying activity and a possible reversal.
Tip : If your strategy uses price-based tools for trend, levels and signals, consider adding a non-price based filter (e.g. volatility or volume).
Step-by-Step Plan for Identifying Trading Opportunities
Here's how to combine these elements into a strategy:
Identify the trend: Use a tool such as the 200 SMA to determine the direction of the market.
Find the key level: Use Fibonacci retracements or support/resistance zones to locate critical price levels.
Wait for a signal: Confirm with candlestick patterns, oscillators or volume.
Apply filters: Ensure that market conditions are in line with your strategy using ATR or volume analysis.
Why it is important to adjust your strategy
Markets are constantly evolving and no strategy works equally well in all conditions. Adjusting parameters to current conditions is critical for consistent success. Consider:
Asset type: cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, etc.
Market conditions: trending, range-bound or highly volatile markets.
Timeframe: intraday, swing, or long-term trading.
Example 1 : Moving averages (e.g. 200 SMA) work well in trending markets, but lose effectiveness in sideways conditions. In such cases, oscillators such as RSI or Stochastic provide more precise entry and exit signals.
Example 2 : During periods of high volatility, such as after major news events, ATR can help set stop-losses and take-profits to account for wider price ranges.
Example 3 : Shorten the length of the SMA for faster intraday trading.
The importance of testing your strategy
Before using a strategy in live markets, you should ensure its effectiveness. Testing is critical, especially for beginners, to avoid unnecessary mistakes and losses.
Backtesting : Use historical data on platforms such as TradingView to see how your strategy would have performed in the past.
Trading simulators : Test your strategy on demo accounts or trading simulators to mimic real market conditions.
Success Metrics : Evaluate your strategy using key metrics such as profit factor, risk-reward ratio, and expectation.
Tip: Analyze both winning and losing trades to identify weaknesses and refine your approach.
Let's discuss
This is just the beginning. I'll cover each element in more detail in future articles. If you have your own approaches that make your strategies successful, share them in the comments. Let's share and improve together!
AMD 1. Accumulation
What Happens?
Smart money (institutions) accumulates large positions quietly, ensuring they don’t move the market significantly.
This occurs in a range-bound phase (consolidation) where prices trade within support and resistance levels.
How to Spot?
Look for low volatility and decreasing volume.
Price shows little directional movement, forming tight ranges.
Wyckoff patterns like "Spring" may appear, where price briefly dips below support to trap sellers.
What to Do?
Identify the range and mark key support and resistance levels.
Avoid trading during this phase until a breakout or manipulation begins.
2. Manipulation
What Happens?
Smart money manipulates the market to create liquidity. They do this by triggering stop-loss orders or inducing retail traders into positions.
This phase includes fake breakouts, sharp moves, and increased volatility.
How to Spot?
Sudden price spikes through key levels (e.g., above resistance or below support), followed by a reversal.
Bull and bear traps occur to lure traders into the wrong side of the market.
Increased volume during these moves indicates institutional activity.
What to Do?
Be cautious of chasing moves during this phase.
Wait for confirmation of the manipulation ending, often signaled by a return to the accumulation or breakout levels.
3. Distribution
What Happens?
Smart money distributes their positions at premium prices, typically after manipulating the market to push prices higher or lower.
This is the phase where trends (upward or downward) are fully established and driven by momentum.
How to Spot?
Strong directional moves with increasing volume.
Breakout of the previous accumulation range, confirmed by a retest.
Trend continuation patterns like higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend).
What to Do?
Enter trades in the direction of the trend, ensuring confirmation.
Use tools like Fibonacci retracements and extensions to identify profit targets.
Follow proper risk management to capitalize on the trend without overexposing.
Practical Trading Tips for AMD Strategy
Combine with ICT Concepts: If you use ICT strategies, align AMD with tools like liquidity zones, order blocks, and fair value gaps.
Key Levels: Focus on institutional levels like psychological levels, daily/weekly highs and lows, and previous session levels.
Timeframes: Use higher timeframes (H1, H4, or Daily) to identify AMD phases and lower timeframes (M5, M15) for precise entries.
Patience: AMD requires waiting for each phase to develop; avoid impulsive trades.
Some experience for new comersNever buy high, never sell low (Though you will find sometime low is not low high is not high when you trade long enough)
ChrisShawky:
Do not pay anyone to teach you: always a scam
JRobs88:
go sign up for IBKR account. It’s free. And then use their online school. Babypips.com another great place to start.
coreyhouck:
demo demo demo demo and then some more demo
Bone-Collector-444:
My advise is stay on demo, its enough to make u realize this is a a scam
rteglersVIX:
deomo for a year
demo for whatever time..
1yr and over
JRobs88:
I’ve been trading over 10 years and I STILL use demo almost everyday.
kalospec:
Just stop, and focus on other things, not trading. It will ruin your life.
The mentality and pressure of people using real accounts and demo accounts are completely different. Mentality and pressure will greatly affect people's judgment. You can only fully learn to trade by using real accounts. When you start using real accounts, my suggestion is that the funds used in the account should be such that your life will not be affected even if you lose 20 or more accounts.
Don't just look at those who become rich overnight, look more at those who go bankrupt. Some people even lose their lives because they overuse leverage. I have seen even those who have been profitable for ten years eventually went bankrupt.
Volume Profile: Why I don't trail stops!Two great examples happened this week on INDEX:ETHUSD and S&P 500 futures where price respected the Volume Profile level TWICE! This video is a tutorial on Volume Profile to demonstrate why it is a "cheat code" for finding GREAT LEVELS!
I do not trail stops because when I put a trade on I want it to be at a Support/Resistance: I wan price to HOLD that level. If it holds a GOOD level... it should hold it AGAIN! Just like these two did. You should never have to move your stop up from a Volume Profile level.
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth.
🎅 What Is the Santa Rally?
The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles.
The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect.
🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction?
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly):
Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office.
Not Guaranteed:
However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect).
🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen?
1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio.
2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher.
3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally.
4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings.
⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause
While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market.
🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched)
1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included).
2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence.
3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls.
4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends.
☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too?
The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions.
Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft.
🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice?
The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary.
So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
10 Brutal Truths About Why Retail Support & Resistance Fail !CAPITALCOM:GOLD
10 Reasons Why Retail Support and Resistance Levels Fail: Unlocking Gann’s Secrets to Market Mastery
Here’s a deeply researched, professional explanation for each point, infused with Gann’s quotes, examples, and concepts, to open the eyes of traders to why retail methods often fail and how Gann's wisdom provides clarity.
1. Static Levels in a Dynamic Market -
Explanation: Retail traders often draw support and resistance (S/R) lines as static horizontal levels, expecting the market to repeatedly respect them. However, Gann emphasized the dynamic nature of markets, stating:
"Markets are never still; they are always moving, reflecting time and price interplay."
Markets are influenced by cycles, trends, and time frames, making S/R levels fluid rather than fixed. For instance, Gann’s Square of Nine shows how support and resistance rotate based on angles and time increments, offering precise levels that adapt dynamically. Retail traders fail to adjust their levels as time progresses, missing key changes in price behavior.
2. Failure to Incorporate Time -
Explanation: Retail S/R methods typically ignore the role of time, which is a critical element in Gann's work. Gann wrote:
"Time is the most important factor in determining market movements."
Support may fail not because the level was invalid but because the "time factor" for that level has expired. For example, in Gann’s Time Cycles, support at a certain price might hold only for a specific duration. When that time passes, the level loses its relevance. Retail traders, unaware of such timing principles, are often blindsided when the market breaks their "strong" levels.
3. Lack of Confluence with Angles -
Explanation: Gann’s methodologies prioritize the confluence of price and angle relationships. He believed that price moves in harmony with geometric angles, stating:
"When price meets time at an angle, a change is imminent."
Retail traders fail to consider these angular relationships, focusing only on flat horizontal lines. For example, a 45° angle from a significant low often acts as a true support, but retail traders, relying solely on previous price zones, miss these powerful turning points.
4. Overcrowding and Psychological Herding -
Explanation: S/R levels widely used by retail traders often attract a large number of orders at the same price zone, making them predictable and vulnerable to institutional manipulation. Gann noted:
"The crowd is often wrong, and the minority drives the market."
Institutions exploit this herding by triggering stop-losses just below support or above resistance, creating false breakouts. For instance, Gann’s "Law of Vibration" explains how markets seek equilibrium by disrupting imbalances created by crowd psychology.
5. Ignoring Volume Analysis
Explanation: Retail traders rarely integrate volume into their S/R analysis. Gann emphasized the importance of volume, stating:
"Price movements must be confirmed by volume to validate strength."
Support may appear to hold, but without accompanying volume, the level lacks significance. A practical Gann-based example would involve observing increased volume near a critical angle or price zone, signaling genuine strength or weakness at that level.
6. Using Recent Highs/Lows Without Context -
Explanation: Many retail traders base S/R levels on recent highs and lows, assuming these are universally strong zones. Gann criticized such oversimplified approaches, writing:
"The past governs the future, but only through proper analysis of cycles and patterns."
Without analyzing historical patterns and cycles, these levels are often superficial. For example, Gann's Master Charts reveal that true resistance may lie at a harmonic distance from an earlier historical pivot, not necessarily at the recent high.
7. Misunderstanding False Breakouts -
Explanation: Retail traders often misinterpret false breakouts as failures of support or resistance. Gann explained this phenomenon through his price and time squares, stating:
"A breakout without harmony is often a trap, designed to mislead the majority."
For instance, a false breakout above resistance might align with a Gann angle signaling a reversal, confusing those relying solely on retail S/R levels.
8. Ignoring Market Structure and Trend -
Explanation: Retail traders often focus on S/R levels without understanding the broader market structure or trend. Gann believed:
"The trend is your friend until time signals the end."
Support is more likely to hold in an uptrend, while resistance is stronger in a downtrend. A classic Gann principle involves combining market structure with angular analysis to determine whether S/R levels will hold or break.
9. Failure to Account for Gann's Price Harmonies -
Explanation: Gann’s studies reveal that price moves in harmonic relationships, often tied to Fibonacci ratios and geometric principles. Retail traders using arbitrary S/R levels fail to respect these harmonies. For example, Gann's observation of price doubling or halving (e.g., $50 to $100) often defines true support or resistance.
10. Reliance on One-Timeframe Analysis -
Explanation:
Retail traders frequently analyze S/R on a single timeframe, missing the interplay between multiple timeframes. Gann emphasized multi-timeframe alignment, writing:
"The major trend governs the minor trend, and the minor trend refines the major."
Support on an hourly chart may fail if it conflicts with resistance on a daily chart. Gann’s multi-timeframe methods ensure alignment, reducing the likelihood of failure.
Updated Closing Thought-
By understanding the reasons why retail support and resistance often fail and incorporating Gann’s time-tested principles, traders can elevate their skills to a professional level. Gann's focus on time, price, and geometry provides a roadmap to understanding the market with unparalleled precision.
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Moving Averages in Action In a past post, we looked at how you can possibly use Bollinger bands within your trading. So, if you haven’t already read it and would like to, please look at our past posts for details.
Today, we want to cover moving averages, which is another trending indicator. Trending indicators are important because they allow us to confirm activity currently being seen in price action. This can provide extra confidence in the trending condition of an asset.
So, let’s look at simple moving averages.
These are used to confirm the current trend of a market. They smooth out price action and can be calculated over various time periods.
For example, a simple 5 day moving average is calculated by adding up the previous 5 closing levels for an instrument, and the total is divided by 5. This is recalculated the next day using the latest 5 closing levels and the new total is again divided by 5. The resulting line is plotted on a price chart.
As prices move higher, the moving average will move higher following below price activity. As prices decline, the moving average will fall above price.
This effectively shows us the 5 day price trend of any instrument.
Using this type of calculation means the longer the timeframe, the slower a moving average reacts to price activity, be it up or down. For instance, a 5 day moving average will follow price action more quickly and closely than a 50 day moving average.
You can have as many moving averages on a chart as you wish, but be aware, the more you have, the more confusing reading the chart can become.
As such, we are going to be looking at examples below, using just 2 simple moving averages, because the relationship between the 2 averages throws up some potentially interesting signals.
Combining 2 Moving Averages on a Pepperstone Price Chart:
As already said above, if a 5 day simple moving average is rising, it reflects the 5 day trend is up. If we expand on that, we could say, if we are using 2 moving averages, like for example, the 5 and 10 day averages, if both are rising or falling at the same time, it potentially offers a stronger indication of the trending condition of an instrument.
Using this combination of 5 and 10 day averages, let’s look at a daily chart of the Germany 40 index on the Pepperstone system.
In this chart of the Germany 40 index, with what we already know about moving averages we can say, if both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, the Germany 40 index is trading within an uptrend.
If they are both falling, the price of the Germany 40 index is in a downtrend.
As such, simple moving averages can offer a way to assess the trending condition of an asset. However, it doesn’t stop there.
Look at the times marked by the chart above, where the rising 5 day average, crosses above the rising 10 day average. These signals are marked by green arrows and can materialise during the early stages of a new upside move.
When a cross is seen where both the 5 and 10 day averages are rising, it is called a Golden Cross, which may see further price strength.
Now look at this chart.
Look at the crosses in the averages where the falling 5 day average crossed below the falling 10 day average, marked by red arrows.
These may be seen before the early stages of a new downside move.
When a cross is seen where both averages are falling, it’s known as a Dead Cross, which could see price weakness.
To Stress, the Averages Must be Moving in the Same Direction When They Cross.
If they cross but are moving in opposite directions, this can be a neutral signal and tends to suggest sideways/consolidation activity in price.
When this is seen, its important to wait for confirmation of the trend. This would be indicated by price breaking higher for an uptrend or lower for a downtrend, followed by both averages then starting to move in the same direction again.
At this point, we should say because of their calculation, moving averages do give lagging signals. In other words, ‘Price has to move to move a moving average’
So, you will see in both the Golden and Dead cross examples on the charts above, they come after either price strength or weakness has already developed.
However, while lagging in nature, moving averages give confirmation of a trend. This can highlight the potential of a move in price, in the direction of the moving average cross.
Being aware of the Golden and Dead crosses can be useful in highlighting possible trending conditions and when you may want to trade with the trend. This can provide you with more confidence that you could be active within a trending market, although this would depend on future price action.
Another Use of a Moving Average is to Highlight a Support and Resistance Level Within a Trend.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the Germany 40 index, but this time just using the 5 day moving average.
Notice, that when a correction is seen and prices sell-off but are still within the uptrend, it’s the rising 5 day average that can mark a support level, marked by the green arrows.
This may in turn see upside moves resume to continue the uptrend, with prices possibly breaking the previous high or resistance level to extend the uptrend.
Within a downtrend, the opposite is true.
A rally within a downtrend may find resistance at the declining 5 day moving average, from which price weakness is resumed to potentially extend the on-going downtrend, marked by the red arrows on the chart above.
So, this approach can be used in several ways to assist us when trading.
For instance, if we are positive of an instrument, within what may be suggested is an uptrend, but don’t yet have a position, we could view corrections back to the rising 5 day average as a move back to support.
Or, if we’re negative, but don’t yet have a position within a downtrend, a rally back to a declining 5 day moving average, may offer an opportunity at a higher level, as it could act as a resistance level, although this is not guaranteed.
Stop losses on long positions could also be placed just under a 5 day moving average, while stop losses on short positions could be placed just above a 5 day moving average. As moving average breaks may see a more extended move in the direction of that break. This may provide protection against possible adverse price movement.
A big advantage of this method of stop placement, is the stop loss moves or trails behind a rising average in an uptrend, or a declining average within a downtrend. This means when long in an uptrend, the stop follows prices higher. Or if short in a downtrend, the stop loss follows prices lower.
Observing Moving Averages in Real Time:
The Germany 40 index is likely to be in focus today with the ECB Interest rate decision released at 1315 GMT and then the ECB Press conference starting at 1345.
Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps (0.25%), so anything else is likely to be a big surprise. However, could they cut by 50bps (0.5%) to try and give a major boost to the Eurozone economy?
After the announcement of the rate decision, Madame Lagarde’s comments in the press conference will also be important for the direction of the Germany 40. Will she confirm more interest rate cuts are a real possibility during the first quarter of 2025, or will she be more guarded, emphasising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation?
Whatever the outcome of these events, the Germany 40 may be more volatile than usual, so you can observe how these moving averages perform in real time.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Set-and-Forget Trading: A Path to Consistency and FreedomForex trading often feels like a full-time job, demanding constant attention and endless decision-making. However, the set-and-forget trading strategy offers a structured and stress-free alternative, allowing you to trade confidently while enjoying the freedom to focus on other aspects of life. Here, we’ll refine the essence of this strategy and show how it can lead to consistent, profitable results.
What Is Set-and-Forget Trading?
Set-and-forget trading is a disciplined approach where you analyze the market, identify key levels, place your trades with defined parameters, and step away. This method prevents over-trading, minimizes emotional interference, and fosters a calm, calculated mindset.
This strategy is especially appealing for traders balancing other responsibilities, offering the dual benefit of effective trading and time efficiency.
Mastering Key Market Levels
At the core of set-and-forget trading lies the identification of significant price levels, such as support, resistance, and trendlines. These levels act as your map for setting entries, stop-losses, and profit targets. The precision of your analysis at this stage determines the success of your strategy.
Key levels are not random—they are where the market historically reacts, making them the most probable zones for price movement.
Avoiding Common Pitfalls:
While set-and-forget is a powerful approach, it’s not without its challenges. Overanalyzing after placing your trades can lead to unnecessary adjustments, which defeats the purpose of this strategy. Similarly, setting unrealistic expectations can lead to frustration—accept that no strategy is perfect, and focus on long-term profitability. Finally, proper risk management is non-negotiable . Always adhere to your predefined stop-loss and position-sizing rules to protect your capital.
Placing Trades With Confidence
Once you’ve identified the key levels, craft a clear plan for each trade. Define your entry point, stop-loss, and take-profit levels. Limit orders are the cornerstone of this strategy, ensuring your trades are executed precisely at your chosen levels, even when you’re not actively watching the market.
This planning requires discipline but reduces the risk of hasty, emotionally charged decisions.
The Art of Letting Go
Perhaps the most challenging part of set-and-forget trading is stepping away from the charts after placing your trades. However, this step is crucial for maintaining discipline and avoiding impulsive changes to your strategy. Trust your analysis and let the market unfold naturally.
By walking away, you also protect yourself from overanalyzing minor fluctuations, which can lead to emotional and costly adjustments.
Why This Approach Works
The power of set-and-forget lies in its simplicity and alignment with key trading principles:
Emotional Discipline: By predefining trades, you avoid the temptation to deviate from your plan.
Time Efficiency: Spend less time glued to the screen and more time pursuing other goals.
Consistency: Trading from key levels with a clear plan fosters long-term profitability.
Handling Challenges With Grace
Even with set-and-forget, it’s vital to remain realistic. Not every trade will be a winner, and patience is required. Proper risk management, such as adhering to your stop-loss and avoiding excessive position sizes, ensures that even losses are manageable.
Another benefit of this approach is that when trades at key levels don’t hit their targets, price often rebounds or retraces, providing opportunities to minimize losses or exit at breakeven.
Final Thoughts
Set-and-forget trading is a mindset as much as it is a method. It requires patience, discipline, and trust in your strategy. By focusing on key levels, pre-planning trades, and letting the market work for you, you gain not just trading profits but also mental clarity and freedom.
If you’re ready to simplify your trading and embrace consistency, set-and-forget could be the transformative strategy you’ve been seeking.
Gold Accumulation phase THE STORY OF THE DOJI:
A large institutional player attempted to orchestrate a stop hunt, creating a false sense of market direction to trigger stops and ignite a sell-off. However, the subsequent price action revealed their hand.
The Doji candle at the support level indicated a loss of conviction among sellers, while the slow distribution and step-like pattern suggested a more deliberate and calculated market behavior.
The bullish candle that formed at the support level, particularly after the attempted stop hunt, implies that the market is rejecting the lower prices and that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure.
This price action suggests that the institutional player's attempt to short the market may have been unsuccessful, and that the market may be poised for a reversal or a continuation of the uptrend.
All based on my observational bias
Bid and Ask ExplainedDo you know what Bid or Ask means? If you’re a trader, you should keep reading if these terms sound unfamiliar to you, or you are unsure. After all, they are the terms used to explain the buying and selling process within markets.
Let’s get started! When you look at a tradable financial market, you'll notice two prices listed: the bid and the ask. Here's a quick guide to help you understand these core concepts:
1. Bid : the price at which you can sell (this is the price where someone is “bidding” to buy it at).
2. Ask : the price at which you can buy (this is the price where someone is “asking” to sell it at).
The bid price is always lower than the ask price. This is just Business 101, as buyers are trying to get a better deal than sellers. So, they bid lower than the ask.
What is Spread?
The spread is the difference between the bid and the ask prices. It's essential for calculating your potential profit or loss from a trade.
Example : If EUR/USD is trading at 1.1259, the bid might be 1.1257 and the ask 1.1260. To buy EUR/USD, you would enter at 1.1260. For any profit, the bid price must rise above 1.1261. If EUR/USD moves up two pips to 1.1261 but the bid remains at 1.1259, you would break even.
Understanding these basics can help you make more informed trading decisions. Happy trading!
Did you learn something new?
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- FOREX.com Team
This is Wyckoff VSA Pro V1 with a short set up based on VolumeIn this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, demonstrates the new Wyckoff VSA Pro V1 for TradingView.
This high probability, low risk set up is based on two principles.
A volume spike in an upmove called professional sellingf followed by a change in trend to the downside and then a confirmation indicator called No Demand.
The result speaks for itself.
Got questions you can email Gavin directly at tradeguider@outlook.com
Good trading,
The TradeToWin team.