Here is WHY You Must Learn TRADE MANAGEMENT
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management in Forex trading .
But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management .
Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position.
Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected.
1. Never remove a stop loss
Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal.
The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss (and occasionally take profit), being afraid to miss bigger profits.
Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent.
Take a look at this long trade on Gold. When the price comes closer and closer to a stop loss, many traders can not take a psychological pressure and remove stop loss, being afraid to take the loss.
However, most of the time, stop loss will help you to limit your losses. You can see that after Gold reached stop loss, the price dropped much lower. Removing the stop loss, you would inquire bigger losses.
Never remove a stop loss. It must be always set.
2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss
Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal.
Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit.
Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse.
It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss.
Above is one more example, why the earlier you close the trade in a loss, the better. Modifications and adjustment of your stop loss will most of the time lead to even bigger losses.
3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy
Where do you take your profit?
Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop?
You should always know the answers.
Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels.
Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit.
Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits.
Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules.
Above is the example of trade management rules in Forex trading. After GBPUSD reached a key support, a long position was opened from that. Once the price moves up by a certain distance, stop loss will be moved to entry. Take profit will be the closest key resistance.
4. Never add to a losing position
Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered.
Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses.
Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE.
Just imagine what could happen with your trading account, if you kept adding to a losing short position in a recent crazy bullish market on Gold.
5. Close the trades manually only following rules
Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors:
they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind.
Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading.
Above is the example how you could easily miss a lot of pips on Gold, simply because the market temporarily stuck on some resistance.
Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan.
Fundamental Analysis
Deciphering the Enigma: Understanding the Forces Behind ForexWithin the seemingly tranquil surface of the forex market lies a realm of intricate complexities and dynamic interactions that dictate its ever-evolving landscape. Unlike the tumultuous fluctuations often witnessed in stock markets, the forex arena operates with a measured cadence, its movements orchestrated by an array of global forces. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve deep into the enigmatic depths of the forex market, unraveling the myriad factors that drive its dynamics and providing strategic insights for navigating its multifaceted terrain.
The Forex Market Unveiled: A Global Phenomenon of Unprecedented Scale
The forex market stands as a towering colossus in the financial world, commanding unparalleled liquidity and facilitating trillions of dollars in transactions on a daily basis. Its decentralized nature allows it to operate seamlessly across borders and time zones, serving as the primary arena for the exchange of currencies on a global scale. From the widely traded major pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY to the more exotic combinations like GBP/NZD and AUD/CHF, the forex market boasts a diverse array of currency pairs, each with its own unique characteristics and trading dynamics.
Deciphering the Forces Behind Market Movements: A Symphony of Economic Indicators
At the heart of forex market dynamics lie a plethora of economic indicators and events that shape investor sentiment and drive currency valuations. Central bank meetings, with their decisions on interest rates and monetary policy, wield significant influence over market sentiment and can trigger pronounced fluctuations in currency prices. Similarly, employment data, GDP reports, inflation figures, and retail sales statistics all offer valuable insights into the health of an economy and can impact currency movements in profound ways.
Navigating the Forex Landscape: The Art of Research and Strategic Planning
Success in the forex market hinges on a combination of knowledge, skill, and strategic planning. Conducting thorough research becomes imperative for traders seeking to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and identify potential trading opportunities. By staying abreast of upcoming news events, economic releases, and geopolitical developments, traders can position themselves strategically and adapt their trading strategies accordingly. Moreover, understanding the seasonal trends and historical patterns that influence currency pairs can provide traders with a valuable edge in their decision-making process.
Trading Around News Events: Exercising Caution and Implementing Risk Management Strategies
While trading around news events can offer lucrative opportunities for profit, it also carries inherent risks that must be managed effectively. Novice traders may be tempted to enter the market impulsively in the hopes of capitalizing on short-term price movements, but seasoned professionals understand the importance of exercising caution and implementing robust risk management strategies. By setting clear stop-loss levels, diversifying their portfolios, and adhering to disciplined trading practices, traders can mitigate the potential impact of market volatility and safeguard their capital against adverse movements.
Conclusion: Embracing the Challenges and Opportunities of the Forex Market
In conclusion, the forex market presents traders with a myriad of challenges and opportunities that require a nuanced understanding of its underlying dynamics and a disciplined approach to trading. By cultivating proficiency through continuous learning, research, and strategic planning, traders can navigate the complexities of the forex landscape with confidence and skill. While the path to success may be fraught with obstacles, those who embrace the challenges of the forex market with determination and resilience stand to reap the rewards of their efforts and achieve their financial goals in the long run.
5 Hidden Dangers of Trading with FOMOIn the previous TradingView article we spoke about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
And why it is really not necessary to deal with.
There is always the next trade coming.
There is always another opportunity coming your way.
There is always time to take the next one.
No we are going to unpack the five hidden dangers of trading with FOMO and how to sidestep them like a pro.
The Emotional Rollercoaster: Stress & Anxiety
Remember when I said.
“Trading is not just a financial challenge, but an emotional marathon”?
That’s never more true than when FOMO kicks in.
When you miss a trade, I know that you could feel stress and anxiety creeping in.
You feel like you’ve missed the most important trade of the year.
Well guess what, you might have missed one trade – but that’s it.
Success is based on 1,000s of trades not just one.
So the key is to remember this, so you eradicate the feelings of stress and anxiety next time you miss a trade.
The Short-Term Mirage: Losing Sight of Long-Term Goals
FOMO pushes you to focus on short-term gains.
Yes it’s important to try and spot high probability trades on a daily basis.
But, if you miss the trade – just go on and look for another.
There is bound to be more ready for you to execute or at least prepare for.
And while you’re at it, remember these are lessons to help you to be more punctual and vivid with your trades.
Following the Herd: The Danger of Sheep Behaviour
Ever heard the saying, “If your friend jumps off a bridge, would you do it too?”
That’s FOMO in a nutshell.
YOUR job is NOT to take a trade based on what your friend, foe, analyst or stranger tells you to buy or sell.
Your job is to either follow your own trading plan and strategy or your mentor’s.
Resist the urge to follow the flock and rather, trust your own research, strategy and instincts.
You’ll form Bad Habits
Each time you give in to FOMO and you take a trade for the sake of it, you’re not just making a bad trade.
You’re also cultivating bad habits for the future.
And once the bad habit forms, it then cultivates and becomes harder to escape from it.
Break the cycle by sticking to your disciplined trading routine. You’re better than that!
Ignored analysis
When you have that FOMO you want to then take impulse trades.
And all your hard work and analyses and discipline is thrown out of the window.
It’s like trying to navigate yourself without a map or GPS.
And you’re depending on your instincts or your “memory”.
It’s a very risky gamble and it could take a LOT longer to find your way.
Don’t go against the strategy. Don’t take trades for the sake of it. Don’t have FOMO because you missed one or two trades.
Just keep to your strategy and move on. It’s your trading compass for a reason.
FINAL WORDS 🚀🌟:
Trading with FOMO is like sailing in stormy seas – it’s risky, stressful, and often leads to nowhere good.
Let’s go other the 5 danger of trading FOMO
Stress & Anxiety: Keep emotions in check and stick to your trading plan.
Short-Term Focus: Remember your long-term goals and don’t get distracted by short-lived trends.
Sheep Behaviour: Be an independent thinker, not a follower.
Bad Habits: Avoid developing harmful trading habits by maintaining discipline.
Ignored Analysis: Trust in your research and analysis; they are your best tools for successful trading.
Portfolio Beta Hedging Ahead of Super Seven EarningsYou cannot predict the future. But you can prepare for it. Mega cap tech stocks have collectively lost USD 930 billion in value since Nasdaq 100 peaked on 21st March 2024. Will Super Sevens earnings turn the tide?
Starting this week, the Super Sevens will start announcing first quarter results. NASDAQ:TSLA is up first on 23/Apr (Tue) followed by NASDAQ:META on 24/Apr (Wed) with NASDAQ:GOOGL and NASDAQ:MSFT on 25/Apr (Thu).
NASDAQ:AAPL reports on 2/May followed by NASDAQ:NVDA on 22/May.
Broad US equity markets are facing multiple headwinds. Rate cut hopes are fading. Geopolitics are turning for the worse with tensions escalating in the middle east. Investor sentiments are gloomy. Consequently, both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have endured their worst week in a long time.
Investors are pinning hopes on AI-infused tech earnings to stem the downdraft and to turn the tide. Bloomberg reports that Super Seven earnings are forecast to rise 38% during Q1 2024 compared to a year ago. If true, those earnings would dwarf the overall S&P 500’s meagre +2.4% forecasted YoY earnings growth.
This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 summarises idiosyncratic factors affecting each of the Super Sevens. Second part of the paper illustrates beta hedging using index options to help portfolio managers defend against downside risk while retaining upside potential.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. EXCITEMENT TO EXHAUSTION?
AI hype remains palpable. But monetising AI is hard. That is becoming increasingly clear. Even among the Super Sevens, not everyone has cracked the AI monetisation formula.
Investors are starting to moderate AI linked expectations. They need a clear path to profits from AI initiatives. Investor scepticism is showing up even among Super Sevens.
NASDAQ:NVDA has been selling shovels to AI gold miners. Expectedly, their earnings and consequently their stock prices are up sharply. Its share prices are up 54% YTD leaving the rest in dust. NASDAQ:META is up 36%, compared +10% for NASDAQ:GOOGL and +6% for $NASDAQ:MSFT.
NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:TSLA are increasingly losing shine. NASDAQ:TSLA (down a colossal 41%) risks being booted out of the Super Seven grouping.
“Investors are expecting not just strong results — but strong guidance,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Any disappointment from the mega-tech names reporting could push this week’s oversold market deeper into oversold territory” as reported by Bloomberg.
NASDAQ:AMZN is expected to deliver modest EPS growth.
Analysts remain strongly bullish with 60 of 63 analysts giving a Strong Buy or Buy rating.
Source: TradingView
NASDAQ:GOOGL is facing justified scepticism by investors about its AI capabilities after multiple missteps. AI powered search engines potentially threatens Google’s dominance.
Despite the headwinds, analysts remain bullish on NASDAQ:GOOGL with average 12-month price target offering an 8% upside.
Source: TradingView
Falling smartphone market share, slowdown in innovations, nothing to show for in AI, lacklustre demand for Vision Pro, closure of Apple Car project, Anti-trust fines and more. Adverse news is hammering NASDAQ:AAPL share prices non-stop.
While overall analyst rating remains bullish, the number of hold and sell calls are rising fast for NASDAQ:AAPL .
Source: TradingView
Bloomberg reports that NASDAQ:META is expected to show revenue growth of 26% this quarter and almost double the net earnings from a year ago.
Analysts remain very bullish on NASDAQ:META with an average 12-month price target of USD 540.90 a share.
Source: TradingView
NASDAQ:MSFT is expected to benefit from AI. It has cleverly implemented Copilot AI into its product suite. Last quarter, demand for AI fuelled growth in its Azure cloud-services business.
Analysts remain constructively bullish on NASDAQ:MSFT with 54 out of 57 analysts holding a Strong Buy or Buy rating on the stock.
Source: TradingView
NASDAQ:NVDA will be the most watched quarterly earnings yet again. Its stock is priced to perfection. Feeble earnings or guidance could send its share prices into a free fall.
Fifty-three of Sixty analysts have either a Strong Buy or a Buy rating on NASDAQ:NVDA with average 30% upside over next 12-months.
Source: TradingView
EV market contraction. Price wars from Chinese EV makers. Deep discounts. All these are heavily weighing down on NASDAQ:TSLA shares.
Not unexpectedly, analysts remain neutral on NASDAQ:TSLA .
Source: TradingView
ILLUSTRATING BETA HEDGING USING INDEX OPTIONS
Super Seven earnings are critical to US equities given their outsized impact due to substantial index weightings. Valuations remain lofty. Despite the recent selloff, these mega caps trade at an aggregate thirty-one times forward earnings.
Earnings can and does have enormous impact on share prices. When valuations are priced to perfection, even a hint of negative news will plummet stock prices down.
Astute portfolio managers defend their portfolio using beta hedging. Beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stocks.
Illustration of the beta hedge below assumes that a portfolio manager holds thirty shares in each of the Super Sevens.
TradingView publishes trailing twelve month beta values for each firm which is the stock’s sensitivity to the S&P 500 index.
In the lead up to results, implied volatility on shares expands rapidly. While hedging using equity put options is an alternative, but it is an expensive one.
A portfolio manager can cleverly deploy short-dated equity index options to minimise hedging costs. CME offers Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (“Micro S&P500 Options”) with each contract providing a notional coverage of USD 5 times the S&P 500 index which translates to USD 25,000 per lot based on current S&P 500 levels of 4,967.23.
Using Micro S&P500 put options expiring on 25th April 2024 at a strike of 4950, a portfolio manager incurs a premium of USD 105 per lot based on close of market prices on 19th April 2024. It requires approximately 4 lots (USD 25,000 per lot times 4 lots = USD 100,000) notional of put options to hedge the above beta adjusted portfolio of USD 107,153.
Source: CME
Table below illustrates hedging pay-off under different price action scenarios during quarterly earnings:
Long Options delivers financial convexity. Options allow portfolio managers to harvest asymmetric gains. It provides protection when markets plunge and allows portfolio managers to capture gains from rising markets.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SIMPLE STEPS IN CREATING A TRADING SYSTEMTrading system and strategy are often equated, but this is not quite right. Both a strategy and a trading system is a single algorithm of actions, including the process of searching for signals and opening trades. But strategy is often understood as following certain rules, while a trading system is a combination of technical, fundamental and psychological components. In other words, the creation of a trading system implies a combination of several strategies that work depending on the situation and their combination with external factors (emotions or news).
📊 CREATING A TRADING SYSTEM
Creating a trading system is the basis of trading. No one prevents you from finding interesting strategies on the Internet, but a trading system is the very core that defines a trader's personality. After all, all people are different. A system is a set of rules, which takes into account the risk appetite, psychological qualities, and way of thinking. The market is influenced by hundreds of different variables, and in order not to drown in the flow of information, it is necessary to identify the basic path and the most influential factors. Building a trading system starts with choosing a narrow niche, which can/should then be gradually expanded.
📝 THE TRADING SYSTEM SHOULD ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
• What is currently happening in the market?
• What can happen in a fixed period of time?
• How can a trader use the obtained information and forecast at the moment?
There are several basic variants of price action, which most often form the basis of trading systems:
1️⃣ TREND FOLLOWING
When it comes to trend following, the key is to pinpoint the start of a trend and monitor any corrections without mistaking them for a trend reversal. This strategy typically utilizes tools such as wave analysis, patterns, and support&resistance levels. Trend following strategies are commonly implemented on an intraday basis.
2️⃣ BREAKOUT OF RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS
The direction of the trend is not the key focus. What truly matters is the price breaking through significant levels. The primary challenge lies in distinguishing between a genuine breakout and a false one.
3️⃣ TRADING INSIDE THE CHANNEL
This is an alternative to the second option. If the price does not break through the level, it returns to its average value. The main tools are the same levels, oscillators, channel indicators.
Additionally, it is important to consider time allocation when creating a trading system. It is crucial to determine the timeframe that best suits your trading style and objectives. Different timeframes, such as intraday, mid-term, and long-term, offer various opportunities and challenges in the market. Understanding how to effectively allocate your time based on your chosen timeframe will help you make well-informed trading decisions:
Intraday. Trades are opened and closed within the day with savings on swaps. They can also include scalping. But if scalping is a high-frequency exhausting trade, then intraday means strategies with the frequency of opening trades up to 3-5 per day.
Mid-term. Can be held for several days, less often - several weeks. They have a strong dependence on the fundamental factor.
Long-term. One of the investment options, providing for the creation of a diversified portfolio of different types of assets.
✔️ The trading system should also answer the following questions:
Which asset optimally corresponds to individual preferences (level of average daily volatility, liquidity, winrate, principle of using leverage/margin percentage).
What are the main parameters of the risk management system: risk level per one trade and for all open positions, lot calculation formula, etc.
What timeframes and technical/fundamental analysis tools to use.
What signals correspond to a successful point of opening a trade.
At what moment to close trades.
✔️ All these points are obvious, but it is the lack of a clear plan that causes mistakes and panic. A trading system plan is a kind of "road map", which provides for:
Different combinations of risk management system parameters. It is not necessary to stick to one risk control strategy. Sometimes an increase in risk is justified. Flexibility is important.
Scenario in case of deviation of actual results of the trading system from statistical results (obtained during testing).
Behavior in different emotional states.
Sources of reliable information.
Order of actions in case of force majeure.
📍 In conclusion , developing a trading system is essential for any trader looking to achieve success in the financial markets. A well-thought-out trading plan with a systematic approach helps traders make informed decisions, manage risks effectively, and stay disciplined in their approach. To trade without a plan is to hope for luck, and luck is not comparable with the theory of probability. Therefore, do not neglect the trading plan.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Deciphering the DistinctionsCryptocurrencies have revolutionized the financial landscape, with Bitcoin and Ethereum emerging as two prominent players shaping the digital economy. Despite sharing the common ground of blockchain technology, each offers distinct features and functionalities, underscoring the need to understand their differences.
Introduction to Bitcoin
Bitcoin, introduced in 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, heralded the dawn of decentralized digital currencies. Its primary objective was to provide an alternative to traditional fiat currencies through a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are verified and recorded on an immutable public ledger, known as the blockchain.
Introduction to Ethereum
In 2015, Vitalik Buterin introduced Ethereum, presenting a paradigm shift beyond mere digital currency. Ethereum serves as an open-source platform for executing smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) without intermediaries. At its core is Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency powering transactions and fueling the ecosystem.
Core Differences
Purpose: Bitcoin functions primarily as a digital currency, aiming to revolutionize financial transactions. Ethereum, on the other hand, is a versatile platform enabling the execution of smart contracts and DApps, with broader implications for decentralization beyond monetary exchange.
Technology: Bitcoin operates on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, requiring significant computational power for transaction validation. Ethereum initially adopted PoW but is transitioning to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0, offering improved scalability and energy efficiency.
Scalability: Bitcoin processes approximately 7 transactions per second, while Ethereum can handle up to 30. Both face scalability challenges, with Ethereum exploring solutions like sharding to enhance throughput and efficiency.
Supply: Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, creating scarcity akin to digital gold. In contrast, Ethereum does not have a predefined supply limit, potentially allowing for continuous production, albeit with economic implications.
Use Cases: Bitcoin is synonymous with a store of value, often likened to digital gold due to its limited supply and scarcity. Ethereum's versatility enables the creation of innovative applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and more, expanding its utility beyond monetary transactions.
Price Dynamics
Bitcoin's market movements often dictate the broader cryptocurrency landscape, impacting the prices of assets like Ethereum. Influencing factors include market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Ethereum's price dynamics are further influenced by platform upgrades, developer activity, and the burgeoning demand for decentralized applications.
Monthly Bitcoin Chart
Monthly Ethereum Chart
Conclusion
While Bitcoin and Ethereum share the foundation of blockchain technology, their purposes, technologies, and applications diverge significantly. Bitcoin seeks to redefine monetary exchange, while Ethereum aims to revolutionize contractual agreements and decentralized applications. Understanding these distinctions is paramount in navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets and harnessing their transformative potential in the global economy.
what currencies to buy in times of geopolitical tensions. In times of geopolitical turmoil or war, investors often seek refuge in currencies perceived as safe havens. several currencies are considered safe harbors due to their stability, liquidity, and low risk of depreciation. Some of the notable safe-haven currencies include:
1-US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven currency due to the size and stability of the US economy, as well as the liquidity of USD-denominated assets. During times of uncertainty, investors tend to flock to the USD, driving up its value.
2-Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland's reputation for political neutrality and its strong banking system make the Swiss Franc a popular safe-haven currency. Investors view the CHF as a stable and reliable asset during periods of geopolitical tension.
3-Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen is considered a safe-haven currency due to Japan's status as a net creditor nation and its large current account surplus. During times of crisis, investors often repatriate funds into the JPY, driving up its value.
4-Euro (EUR): Despite occasional uncertainties surrounding the Eurozone, the Euro is still considered a safe-haven currency by many investors. The Euro's status as the second most traded currency in the world and the stability of major Eurozone economies contribute to its safe-haven appeal.
5-Gold-Backed Currencies: Some countries, particularly those with significant gold reserves, may issue currencies backed by gold or pegged to the price of gold. These currencies offer stability and are perceived as safe havens during times of crisis.
AI vs. AGI: The Race for Performance, Battling the Cost?Artificial intelligence (AI) has become ubiquitous, transforming industries and powering everything from facial recognition to self-driving cars. However, the dream of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – machines with human-level intelligence and understanding – remains elusive. Let's delve into the key differences between AI and AGI, particularly regarding their performance and the immense computational cost that hinders AGI development.
AI: The Specialized Powerhouse
Current AI excels in specific tasks. Deep learning algorithms trained on massive datasets can identify objects in images with superhuman accuracy, translate languages with remarkable fluency, or play games at a level surpassing even the most skilled humans. This specialization, however, comes at a cost. AI systems often struggle with tasks outside their narrowly defined domain. For example, an image recognition AI trained on cat pictures may misidentify a dog as a cat due to a lack of broader understanding.
Computationally, AI can be quite efficient. While training complex models requires significant resources, once trained, they can run on relatively inexpensive hardware. This efficiency is crucial for real-world applications where cost is a major factor.
AGI: The Elusive Generalist
AGI represents the holy grail of AI research – a machine that can learn, reason, and adapt to new situations just like a human. Such an intelligence would have applications beyond our wildest dreams, revolutionizing every aspect of society. However, achieving AGI presents a significant challenge.
The human brain, with its intricate network of neurons and complex processes, is a marvel of biological engineering. Replicating this level of intelligence artificially requires immense computational power. Training AGI models on the vast amount of data needed for general knowledge would require massive computing clusters, consuming enormous amounts of energy. This not only raises practical concerns about cost but also environmental ones.
The Road Ahead
The quest for AGI continues, with researchers exploring various avenues. Neuromorphic computing, which attempts to mimic the structure and function of the brain, holds promise for more efficient learning algorithms. Additionally, advancements in hardware, such as specialized AI chips, could help reduce the computational burden.
While the development of true AGI might still be far off, the ongoing research paves the way for more powerful and versatile AI. By optimizing existing algorithms and developing new computational architectures, we can bridge the gap between specialized AI and the dream of a general artificial intelligence. This journey will require innovation not just in AI research but also in sustainable energy solutions to power these future advancements.
1Current AI vs. Non-existent AGI: By definition, there is no true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) yet. So, in that sense, current AI excels in its specific field because AGI wouldn't have a "field" in the same way.
Specialized AI vs. Hypothetical General AGI: If an AGI ever emerges, it's unlikely to directly compete with specialized AI in their narrow domains. Here's why:
Specialization is Key: Current AI thrives because it's laser-focused on specific tasks. An AGI, with its broader intelligence, might not be as efficient for these tasks.
Different Tools for Different Jobs: Imagine needing to hammer a nail. You wouldn't use a Swiss Army knife (the AGI) when a simple hammer (the specialized AI) is perfect for the job.
Outperform in Unfamiliar Situations: While a specialized AI might struggle with anything outside its training data, an AGI could potentially adapt and learn new tasks more readily.
Revolutionize the Field: An AGI might not directly "beat" a specialized AI, but it could completely redefine how a task is approached, leading to even more powerful AI solutions.
DeepMind, a leading AI research lab owned by Google, is tackling a wide range of ambitious projects. Here are some highlights:
Healthcare: DeepMind Health is applying AI to medical challenges. They've collaborated with hospitals to develop algorithms for analyzing eye scans for early signs of blindness and differentiating healthy from cancerous tissues.
Scientific Discovery: DeepMind's AlphaFold project has made significant strides in protein folding prediction, a critical step in understanding diseases and developing new drugs.
Efficiency and Sustainability: A collaboration with Google AI led to WaveRNN, a method for improving audio call quality, even with dropped packets. Their AlphaFold project itself has the potential to accelerate discoveries in clean energy and materials science.
Gaming and Robotics: DeepMind's AI agents have achieved superhuman performance in complex games like StarCraft II. Their AlphaFold project demonstrates the potential for AI-powered robotics in scientific experimentation and materials creation (Project A-Lab).
AI for the Future: DeepMind's efforts extend beyond specific applications. Their Visualising AI program commissions artists to create thought-provoking pieces that challenge how we perceive AI. Additionally, their recent release of Gemma, a state-of-the-art open model, promotes responsible AI development by making research tools more accessible.
These are just a few examples.
DeepMind is constantly pushing the boundaries of AI research, aiming to use this technology for positive impact across various fields. You can find more details on their latest projects on their website
The DXY's Reach: Beyond Traditional MarketsThe DXY, though primarily impacting foreign exchange (forex) markets, casts a long shadow across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Here's how a strong dollar (rising DXY) and a weak dollar (falling DXY) can influence these markets:
Foreign Investment in Crypto: A strong dollar can make cryptocurrency investments less attractive to foreign investors for similar reasons as traditional stocks and bonds. They would need to exchange more of their local currency for dollars to buy cryptocurrencies, increasing their investment costs. Additionally, if the dollar appreciates significantly, potential returns from crypto investments, when converted back to their home currency, might become less appealing.
Risk Appetite and the "Safe Haven" Status: The dollar is often seen as a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty. When the global economic outlook weakens, investors might flock to the dollar, pulling investments out of riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. This can lead to a decline in cryptocurrency prices as demand wanes. Conversely, a weak dollar might indicate a stronger global economic climate, potentially boosting risk appetite and leading investors to allocate more funds towards cryptocurrencies, driving their prices up.
Correlation with Traditional Markets:
The cryptocurrency market, though evolving its own dynamics, still exhibits some correlation with traditional markets. If a strong dollar weakens the stock market, it might indirectly impact cryptocurrencies as well, as investor sentiment can influence both asset classes. However, the correlation between crypto and traditional markets is not always perfect and can fluctuate.
Bitcoin: A Special Case?
Bitcoin, the most established cryptocurrency, often presents a unique case. While a strong dollar can dampen investor interest and potentially lead to a price decline, some view Bitcoin itself as a hedge against fiat currencies like the US dollar. The limited supply of Bitcoin, unlike the potentially infinite supply of the dollar, is seen as an advantage by some investors seeking protection against inflation. However, Bitcoin's price is still susceptible to broader market forces and investor sentiment, making it vulnerable to fluctuations alongside the DXY.
Beyond the DXY: A Holistic View
It's important to remember that the DXY is just one piece of the puzzle. Several other factors can influence cryptocurrency prices:
Regulations: Government regulations and policies surrounding cryptocurrencies can significantly impact their market performance.
News and Events:
Major news events related to hacks, security breaches, or mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies can trigger price movements.
Technological Advancements: Developments within the blockchain technology and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem can influence investor sentiment and market movements.
The Takeaway:
The DXY undeniably plays a role in shaping the cryptocurrency market landscape. However, its influence is intertwined with various other factors. By understanding how the DXY interacts with traditional markets, investor risk appetite, and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies, you can gain a more comprehensive perspective on potential price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and technical analysis of the DXY should be used in conjunction with other factors to make informed investment decisions.
No FOMO when you trade - 5 ReasonsSo you missed a trade.
Or you are you often gripped by the fear of missing out (FOMO) in the trading world?
It’s a common feeling.
But let me tell you.
You might miss a train, but the next one is always on the way.
And the stock market will always be there for you to pump out more profit opportunities for you.
Today, I want you to not worry to much about FOMO. And I don’t want you to kick yourself and here’s why…
Impulsive Decisions: The Enemy of Rational Trading
Ever jumped into a trade just because it ‘felt right’?
It’s like grabbing a chocolate bar at the checkout – it’s tempting, but not always a good idea.
You need to get rid of the idea of wanting to impulse trade (trade for the sake of it).
Rather have your trading plan and stick to it by all means.
If you miss a trade – LOOK for the next one.
Not a low probability trade. Wait for the next high chance of success trade and you’ll be happy you did so.
Research: Your Secret Weapon
Trading without research is like driving with your eyes closed. You might get lucky and not crash, but it’s a risky gamble.
You need to put in the time to research and analyse the markets accordingly.
Understand the why behind your trades. Research is your crystal ball in the trading world.
Chasing the Market: A Fool’s Errand
Ever seen a stock skyrocket and felt like you’re missing the party?
You might feel the same with Bitcoin or a stock that has underperformed in a while.
The worse you can do, is try to chase the market.
If you missed the trade. Move on and find the next perfect trade that is linin up.
Patience is your ally.
Precision analysis is also the key.
Remember, markets move in cycles. Wait for your moment.
Big Risks: Big Rewards or Big Regrets?
It’s like betting all your chips on red.
It can pay off, but it’s a rollercoaster ride.
So you need to remember that risk and money management is key.
Balance optimism with realism.
Use stop-loss orders, adjust with trailing stop losses – get out with time stop losses.
And most importantly – Protect your capital – it’s your trading lifeline.
High Emotions: The Trader’s Kryptonite
The infamous emotional rollercoaster might make you take the wrong trades.
It will result in you making rash, quick and irresponsible decisions.
So try to keep emotions at bay, stay calm to trade.
Develop a mindset that is calm and collected. Remember, the market doesn’t care about your feelings.
Final words:
So you know that FOMO is another dangerous habit to develop as a trader.
Rather, say to yourself this mantra.
There is always another and better trade on the way, and I don’t have to catch every single trade that presents itself.
Let’s sum up the reasons why FOMO is dangerous.
Impulsive Decisions: The Enemy of Rational Trading
Research: Your Secret Weapon
Chasing the Market: A Fool’s Errand
Big Risks: Big Rewards or Big Regrets?
High Emotions: The Trader’s Kryptonite
Support and Resistance levelsSupport and resistance levels, the bedrock of technical analysis, are fundamental elements. They serve as critical points that delineate potential price movements and are pivotal in decision-making processes for traders and investors alike
The basis:
There are several fundamental concepts in trading that remain the same over a long period of time. Among them, the concepts of support and resistance levels stand out. When used correctly, support and resistance levels improve trading efficiency in financial markets.
Today we will delve deeper into these concepts.
Price behavior:
The fundamental principle of price behavior lies in the concept of supply and demand, governing the existence and operation of any market.
When demand outweighs supply, it prompts an upward push in prices, while in reverse circumstances, a decrease is observed. By identifying levels of supply and demand, traders significantly enhance their success rate.
A support level indicates a price range where strong buying positions are concentrated, typically defined by two minimum price points.
A resistance level, conversely, denotes a price range around which strong selling positions are clustered, often marked by two maximum price points.
It's important to note that support and resistance levels should not be viewed as precise lines. Prices may not necessarily adhere to these levels point by point; often, they may not even touch the level directly, sometimes piercing through it. This variability is normal, so these levels should be perceived more as zones of support and resistance. The width of these zones can vary, with the magnitude of dispersion dependent on the timeframe in which trading occurs. The higher the timeframe, the potentially broader the range of support and resistance levels.
Once again for strengthening:
Support and resistance levels represent specific price ranges on a chart (often represented by rectangles in my analysis) where the direction of price movement has historically changed. These ranges attract traders' attention because they provide clear points for setting stop losses and entering trades. In addition, these levels usually attract large buyers or sellers whose limit orders contribute to market dynamics.
Essentially, the level denotes the price area in the market where traders perceive the price to be either overpriced or underpriced, depending on the prevailing market conditions. Therefore, it is extremely important to closely monitor key levels where the role of support and resistance has changed or where significant price reversals have occurred.
Blending levels signify pivotal points on a price chart where price action can prompt a reversal in the opposite direction. In the presence of a robust trend, price movements may penetrate through these supply and demand levels, leading to potential shifts in direction. Such occurrences typically coincide with heightened transaction volumes. The interplay of price adjustments, heightened market activity, and trading volumes collectively influence market direction.
When resistance is breached and the price retraces to its previous level, there's a likelihood that bulls will once again push it upwards. Conversely, if the price retraces to the breached level after breaking through support, bears are likely to actively drive it downwards. Support and resistance levels can be identified as areas in the market where traders are more inclined to buy or sell, depending on current market conditions. This creates a zone of collision between buyers and sellers, often prompting the market to change its direction.
Retest:
A retest of a level refers to a brief return of the price to the breached support or resistance line for testing purposes. Following the retest, the price typically continues its movement in the direction of the breakout.
On higher time frames, support and resistance levels become more powerful:
It is important to observe the price action around levels:
If the price swiftly reverses from a level into the opposite trend, it indicates significant importance of that level.
If the price tests a specific area multiple times with minor retracements, it's likely that the level will eventually be breached.
Swing zones refer to areas where the price retraces to the previous pullback in either a downtrend or uptrend. In less robust trends, the price tends to return to the boundary of the previous correction before continuing its movement.
Of course, support and resistance are dynamic concepts that require constant attention and analysis as their meaning changes depending on prevailing market conditions. Moreover, it is critical to consider multiple confirmations such as volume analysis and breakouts to confirm the strength of these levels.
Thank you for your attention!
Post-trade psychology!
In the trading market, being anxious cannot solve the problem.
But be prepared for a long time, don't rush for success, and don't be afraid of being a late bloomer.
Take your time and master the process, don’t rush the results.
Whether it is the trading market or other industries, it all requires a process, and it requires step by step and continuous efforts to achieve it.
Give the process time, and please give yourself time. I think time will definitely give you a better answer.
Accumulation over time will make you gain more and more.
Don't be anxious, just take it step by step.
Although the process is slow, if you keep going, slow and perseverant, you will eventually reach the goal you want.
Usually the more anxious you are in trading, the easier it is to deviate from your original intention, and most of the results are counterproductive.
In nature, you will find that a lot of life is slow.
The sun rises little by little and sets little by little, the flowers bloom one by one and wither petals.
The flowers will not bloom before the season, and the fruits cannot be picked if they are not ripe.
The journey of life is very long, you don’t have to seize the day, persistence is the only way to win in the end.
BITCOIN HALVING MYTHSIn a week, another bitcoin halving is expected to take place, which is expected by many cryptocurrency traders. Cryptocurrencies are still a dark horse for traders: sharp price fluctuations in both directions, high volatility attract traders with the supposed simplicity of making money. And although many consider the industry a bubble, there are still enthusiasts willing to take risks.
What Is Halving In Simple Words? 📜
Halving is a reduction for rewarding miners for performing operations on the bitcoin blockchain network. Currently, the reward for solving equations for a block of data on the blockchain is 6.25 bitcoins. After halving, it will be cut exactly in half to 3.125 bitcoin.
Basically, miners act as accountants in the blockchain network or as an equivalent of the collective Central Bank in the blockchain and serve as a guarantee of transparency and veracity of information: it is impossible to fake it in one block without other miners noticing it, but it is necessary to fake the entire chain of operations in the entire blockchain, which is practically impossible. Miners are responsible for processing all transactions: if there were no miners, there would be no new bitcoin transactions.
How Bitcoin's Halving In 2024 Will Affect The Price? 📈📉
Bitcoin's halving in 2024 is one of the most expected and discussed events of the first half of this year. In most cases, analysts cannot clearly explain why the price of BTC (and subsequently other alts) changed, finding unconvincing reasons in hindsight. Therefore, the upcoming event is a reason to try to predict the future behavior of the price before it happens. Halving is a halving of miners' profits. That is, a miner bought expensive equipment, spends electricity in the hope that each block will be rewarded with 6.25 BTC. But then halving occurs and now the reward per block is 3.125 BTC.
In theory, halving means that fewer coins will be mined and some miners will leave the market altogether. This will be followed by an increase in the scarcity of BTC, and therefore an increase in its price. At least, this is how optimists explain the growth of BTC price after halving. But the question is: how will the reduction in the volume of its production contribute to its price increase?
1️⃣ The Approaching Halving Is Already Priced In . This myth is taken from the fundamental analysis of stock market if investors are sure that, for example, if the Fed's interest rate is going to be exactly changed in a month, they buy or sell dollars in advance. However, this does not work in cryptocurrencies for several reasons:
✔️ Halving is embedded in the blockchain and for BTC it is done every 4 years. But that doesn't mean it is already factored into the pricing.
✔️ There are very few people involved in mining. And it is not a fact that investors are basically aware of what halving is and when it will take place. Short-term speculators may still be interested in this information. Those who bought BTC with the expectation that someday it will rise again (or did not sell it after a fall) are hardly interested in it.
✔️ The role of mining in the share of speculative circulation is not high. Market makers rule the market, which can simply squeeze miners with capital.
2️⃣ Bitcoin's Price Will Fall. The halving of bitcoin in 2024 may indeed affect the prices, but not as drastically as many investors would like. An argument in favor of a fall is the example of LTC, which got cheaper before halving profits. Compare the volumes of LTC and BTC, which occupies more than 54% of the entire cryptocurrency circulation. LTC is a speculative instrument, whereas BTC has a large share of long-term capital.
3️⃣ Halving Will Lead To The Annihilation Of The Mining Industry . Supporters of this myth argue that mining is becoming less and less profitable. In addition, more and more startups are being developed on more modern algorithms that do not involve mining. In reality, existing miners aren't going anywhere. Those who have already invested money in it will continue to "recoup" their costs. There will be no influx of new miners, so the mining industry will eventually disappear on its own. But halving will definitely not be to blame for this.
✅ Conclusion
Halving bitcoin's price can affect the price significantly. The price may shift to one side or the other, but there are enough fundamental factors for growth, but not for a fall in price. Therefore, it is very likely that this event will be noticed.
Trading Psychology and Your Losses
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss a common fallacy among struggling traders: overestimation of a one single trade .
💡The fact is that quite often, watching the performance of an active trading position, traders quite painfully react to the price being closer and closer to a stop loss or, alternatively, coiling close to a take profit but not being managed to reach that.
Fear of loss make traders make emotional decisions :
extending stop loss or preliminary position closing.
The situation becomes even worse, when after the set of the above-mentioned manipulation, the price nevertheless reaches the stop loss .
Just one single losing trade is usually perceived too personally and make the traders even doubt the efficiency of their trading system.
They start changing rules in their strategy, then stop following the trading plan, leading to even more losses.
❗️However, what matters in trading is your long-term composite performance . A single position is just one brick in a wall. As Peter Lynch nicely mentioned: “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
There are so many factors that are driving the markets that it is impossible to take into consideration them all. And because of that fact, we lose.
The attached chart perfectly illustrates the insignificance of a one trading in a long-term composite performance.
Please, realize that losing trades are inevitable, and overestimation of their impact on your trading performance is detrimental.
Instead, calibrate your strategy so that it would produce long-term, consistent positive results. That is your goal as a trader.
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price.
However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy.
For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices.
Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices.
In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Why Gold and DXY Rise Together in Times of UncertaintyIn times of market uncertainty, investors often seek refuge in assets considered safe havens, such as gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY). While traditionally these two assets exhibit a negative correlation, meaning when one rises, the other tends to fall, their simultaneous ascent during periods of uncertainty might seem counterintuitive at first glance. However, a deeper understanding reveals the underlying dynamics driving this phenomenon.
Firstly, let's explore gold's role as a safe haven asset. Gold has long been revered as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability and geopolitical turmoil. During times of uncertainty, investors flock to gold as a reliable store of wealth, driving up its price. This demand surge can outweigh any negative impact from a stronger US dollar, leading to both gold and DXY rising concurrently.
On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also garners safe haven status during times of uncertainty. The US dollar is widely considered the world's reserve currency and is backed by the largest and most stable economy globally. Consequently, investors often seek refuge in the US dollar during periods of market turmoil, further boosting its value.
Moreover, the correlation between gold and the US dollar is not solely determined by economic factors but also influenced by investor sentiment and market dynamics. During times of heightened uncertainty, investor behavior can drive unusual correlations as market participants prioritize capital preservation over traditional market relationships.
Furthermore, it's crucial to consider the broader macroeconomic landscape. Factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and global economic outlook play significant roles in shaping investor sentiment and asset prices. Changes in these factors can lead to shifts in the relationship between gold and the US dollar, especially during times of uncertainty when market participants reassess risk and allocate capital accordingly.
In conclusion, while gold and the US dollar may traditionally exhibit a negative correlation, their simultaneous rise during times of uncertainty underscores their status as safe haven assets. Understanding the complex interplay of economic fundamentals, investor sentiment, and market dynamics is essential for comprehending the nuances of asset relationships, particularly during turbulent times in the financial markets.
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics.
The Halving Mechanics
At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140.
As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset.
Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted:
“In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.”
Impact on Price Dynamics
Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate
Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%.
The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.
Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance,
To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving.
This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price.
Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market
The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery.
Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up.
Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward.
Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving.
A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article).
Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure.
Impact on Miners
The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation.
The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities.
The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough.
In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices.
Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole.
As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals.
The rise of Ordinals
The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving.
Long Term Outlook
Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value.
Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.
Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.
In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
How the CPI Affects All Markets, Including Cryptocurrencies## Unveiling the Multifaceted Impact of CPI on All Markets: A Deep Dive
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands as a powerful economic barometer, influencing a vast array of markets beyond traditional stocks and bonds. Understanding its ripple effects across asset classes is crucial for investors and traders navigating the ever-shifting currents of the financial landscape.
**Decompiling the CPI:**
At its core, the CPI measures the average price changes of a basket of goods and services representative of typical consumer purchases. It serves as a critical gauge of inflation, reflecting the impact of rising prices on purchasing power over time. Governments and central banks rely on CPI data to assess the health of their currencies, make informed monetary policy decisions, and monitor overall economic stability.
**CPI's Influence Across Asset Classes:**
* **Stock Market:** A rising CPI can paint a picture of robust economic growth, potentially leading to higher corporate profits and a bullish stock market outlook. However, the story isn't always rosy. High inflation can also erode company profits by increasing production costs and squeezing margins. Additionally, it can reduce investor purchasing power, leading to a decline in stock prices. To curb inflation, central banks may raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and potentially slowing down economic activity, further impacting stock market performance.
* **Bond Market:** The bond market generally fares poorly in inflationary environments. Bonds offer fixed interest payments, and when inflation rises, the purchasing power of those fixed payments diminishes. Investors seeking protection against inflation may abandon bonds, leading to a decline in bond prices.
* **Real Estate Market:** Real estate can act as a hedge against inflation. Property values often rise alongside inflation, making real estate investment trusts (REITs) and direct ownership of property attractive options during inflationary periods. Investors seeking a shield against inflation may flock to this asset class, potentially driving up real estate prices.
* **Cryptocurrency Market:** The relationship between CPI and cryptocurrencies is a topic of ongoing debate. While some cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are touted as hedges against inflation due to their limited supply, their price movements are highly volatile and influenced by a complex interplay of factors beyond inflation. While inflation might nudge some investors towards cryptocurrencies, their inherent volatility necessitates a cautious approach.
* **Commodities Market:** Commodities like gold and oil are traditionally viewed as inflation hedges. Their prices tend to rise alongside inflation, attracting investors seeking to preserve purchasing power during inflationary periods. This flight to commodities can drive up their prices, potentially creating new opportunities for investors.
**Beyond Headline Numbers: A Deeper Look**
The impact of CPI extends far beyond headline numbers. Here's why a nuanced understanding is key:
* **Sector Performance:** Within each market, different sectors react uniquely to CPI fluctuations. For example, rising CPI might benefit utility companies that can pass on cost increases to consumers through higher electricity bills. Conversely, consumer discretionary sectors like retail might see a decline in demand due to inflation-driven budget tightening by consumers. By understanding sector-specific sensitivities to CPI, investors can tailor their strategies to capitalize on potential opportunities.
* **Investor Sentiment:** High inflation can breed anxiety and risk aversion among investors, potentially leading to a sell-off across various markets. Investors spooked by rising prices might pull their money out of stocks, bonds, or even cryptocurrencies, seeking safer havens. Understanding how investor sentiment might shift based on CPI data can help investors anticipate market movements.
* **Global Events:** The global stage is a dynamic one, and unforeseen events like geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions can significantly impact inflation and, consequently, various markets. Investors who stay informed about global developments can potentially adjust their strategies to navigate market fluctuations triggered by these events.
**Harnessing the Power of CPI:**
By demystifying the impact of CPI on different markets, investors and traders gain valuable insights. Closely monitoring CPI data, combined with analyzing sector-specific performance and broader economic trends, empowers them to make informed investment decisions. Remember, the CPI is just one piece of the puzzle, but a crucial one. A comprehensive analysis that incorporates various economic indicators, market-specific dynamics, and global events will provide a more complete picture, ultimately leading to better investment strategies.
MFI INDICATOR - STRATEGY FOR TRADINGIndicator MFI — model
Incorporating technical indicators into your trading system requires a clear understanding of their fundamental principles.
An innovative solution developed by Gene Cuong and Avrum Sudak allows the use of volumetric data in metric analysis.
The Cash Flow Index serves as a graphical representation of the "cash ratio", requiring a preliminary derivation of the "cash ratio" and subsequent calculations, including the determination of typical price and cash flow.
Similar to the relative strength index, the cash flow index is based on the concept of a “typical price,” calculated as the average of the high, low, and closing prices over a specified period of time. For example, if the daily time frame has a high of 70,000, a low of 65,000, and a closing price of 68,000, the typical daily price is calculated as follows:
Typical daily price = (70000 + 65000 + 68000)/3 = 67666
Cash flow is then determined by multiplying typical price by volume:
Cash Flow = Typical Daily Price * Volume.
Comparing the resulting cash flow with the previous day's cash flow makes it easier to identify positive or negative trends. Positive cash flow indicates an increase, while a negative cash flow indicates a decrease. Cases of equivalent cash flow values are not taken into account.
When positive and negative cash flows can be distinguished, the cash ratio is calculated by dividing the former by the latter:
Cash Ratio = (Positive Cash Flow / Negative Cash Flow).
Using this data, the cash flow index (MFI) can be calculated using the formula:
MFI = 100 - (100/(1 + Money Factor)).
Gene Cuong and Avrum Sudak have delineated three primary signals employed by the Cash Flow Index:
Overbought or Oversold Levels: Traders strategically monitor for overbought or oversold conditions as indicators of unsustainable price extremes, signaling potential market corrections.
Bullish and Bearish Divergences: Analysis of bullish and bearish divergences serves as a predictive tool for identifying potential trend reversals. Discrepancies between the direction of price movements and corresponding Cash Flow Index trends can offer valuable insights into shifting market dynamics.
Fluctuations at 80 or 20 Levels: Observing fluctuations in the indicator readings around the 80 or 20 thresholds enables traders to discern potential market reversals. These pivotal levels serve as crucial points of reference, guiding traders in assessing market sentiment and making informed trading decisions.
Determining overbought and oversold zones using the cash flow index
While the relative strength index (RSI) and other oscillator-type technical indicators are capable of identifying overbought and oversold market conditions, the money flow index (MFI) stands out for its effectiveness in this area. Including additional volume information allows the MFI indicator to filter out false signals from overbought and oversold conditions, increasing its reliability, especially for traders looking to counter prevailing trends.
Like most momentum indicators, the Money Flow Index ranges from 0 to 100. A Money Flow Index reading below 20 indicates an oversold signal. Conversely, a Cash Flow Index reading greater than 80 suggests an overbought scenario.
One limitation of trading based solely on overbought and oversold signals is the inability to counter the current trend merely due to signals generated by the Money Flow Index (MFI). Optimal trading strategy involves exercising patience and waiting for a price action pattern to validate a shift in the prevailing trend before taking a position. By employing this approach, traders can make more informed decisions and reduce the risk of entering positions prematurely based solely on MFI signals.
The MFI Indicator and Divergence
Beyond its function in pinpointing overbought and oversold conditions, the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator serves as a valuable tool for detecting divergence within the market. In essence, divergence manifests when the price moves in one direction while the indicator readings depict a contrary trend. Traders regard this occurrence as a strong indication that the price is poised to reverse in alignment with the technical indicator's trajectory.
Utilizing the MFI indicator enables traders to readily recognize such signals, whether they manifest as bullish or bearish divergence.
Bullish Divergence:
Bearish divergence:
What Should You Consider?
By integrating volume into its mathematical framework, the Money Flow Index is adept at generating highly precise trading signals concerning overbought and oversold market conditions. Additionally, it demonstrates a notable ability to pinpoint emerging divergences within the market. However, like any technical indicator, it possesses inherent limitations.
A primary constraint of the Money Flow Index is its propensity to persist in overbought or oversold states for extended durations, potentially leading to false signals. Yet, by crafting a trading strategy that incorporates price action signals, traders can harness the MFI indicator to identify potential reversal zones.
Armed with this insight, traders can anticipate shifts in directional price movement with ease and strategize their trades accordingly.
Summing It Up:
The Money Flow Index stands out as a unique indicator amalgamating momentum and volume within the RSI formula. Its strength lies in its adeptness at identifying potential reversals through overbought or oversold levels, as well as bullish or bearish divergences. Nonetheless, prudent utilization of the Cash Flow Index entails supplementing its readings with additional technical indicators rather than relying solely on its signals.
BUY, SELL, with white Plot Waves but on a 4hr TF Tutorial Same formula settings as Buy and Sell. Added a 4th plot MA for a longer time frame. This will help exit the trade much earlier for greater profits otherwise without this 4th plot wave, traders may be at risk of losing out for greater profits.
4hr TF Buy, Sell, with wave settings, are the same settings with 30min TF.
FOR 30MIN TIMEFRAME (Green Wave)
Make sure the 4th white MA is unchecked when using a 30min TF.
1. Wait for Buy
2. After the Buy label, the green Wave Confirms Entry BUY Above the orange and yellow waves.
3. Follow the green wave with candlesticks
4. Wait for the green wave to move underneath the orange and yellow waves to confirm to exit the trade.
FOR 4HR TIMEFRAME (White Wave)
Go to settings and click by adding the 4th white MA, all four MAs must be active
1. Wait for Buy
2. After the Buy label, the White Wave Confirms Entry BUY Above the green, orange, and yellow waves.
3. Follow the white wave with candlesticks
4. Wait for the white wave to move underneath the green wave to confirm to exit the trade.
Please read the comment on the chart referring to Sell Signal arriving late. Instructions applied.
You may get a Sell label before the white wave falls beneath the green wave. Does not mean you should exit (up to you) but I'll take the sell signal label as guidance knowing the white wave will fall beneath the green wave soon.
Just like the buying label, doesn't mean I should buy when the buying label appears but I should wait until the white wave moves above the green, orange, and yellow waves.
Anything else I might have missed, I'm not responsible. Backtest it, and do your research. This is not intended for financial advice. Agreeing to use this tutorial strategy, means you are solely making your own decisions to enter and exit a trade. You also agree not to hold me responsible in case of financial loss.
The Buy, Sell, and Waves have specific settings to make it work. I'm only sharing input settings for those who request along with indicator names. I'll private message you with them.
Any trader making changes to these two indicators must know, that trading is a risk and profits are not guaranteed. Nothing in trading is 100% guaranteed to win.
Be strategic, Avoid Traps, and ConsolidationThis idea links to other ideas called Buy and Sell. This strategy is about 90% to 95% win rate.
I'm adding an oscillator to help with that area where a trader can avoid traps, consolidation, major losses, etc.
I've created two scenario ideas.
In this case, relating to both sides, a trader enters a trade after already confirming entry. But they don't realize it's a trap. The oscillator can help offset having to wait for sell confirmation.
Please view carefully what this oscillator does:
Helps read reversals and divergence
The oscillator's first red column is to be used to help exit the trade rather than having to wait for sells label and plot crossover. View both examples.
Pay attention to:
1. Buy label but not confirmed for entry
2. Green wave above orange and yellow confirms entry
3. View both red divergence trend lines from candlesticks and oscillator
4. As you read divergence, view yellow and orange plot waves and view the price BTC might fall
5. Realize the Green wave is too far apart from the orange and yellow waves and BTC is headed
downward.
Why am I using this strategy?
Because the entry was not long ago and the trend is starting to dip so I must react quickly.
Why should I react rapidly?
1. Diverage in process
2. My profit is not much to have a good space to stay in the trade longer
3. The oscillator column is red for exit
or
I can remain in the trade at a greater RISK.
As you learn divergence and reversals you'll catch the fall sooner than having to wait for the red column. All this is due to the major fact, that you bought early and the dip is beginning to fall.
Anything else I might have missed, I'm not responsible. Backtest it, and do your research. This is not intended for financial advice. Agreeing to use this tutorial strategy, means you are solely making your own decisions to enter and exit a trade. You also agree not to hold me responsible in case of financial loss.
The Buy, Sell, and Waves have specific settings to make it work. I'm only sharing input settings for those who request along with indicator names. I'll private message you with them.
Any trader making changes to these two indicators must know, that trading is a risk and profits are not guaranteed. Nothing in trading is 100% guaranteed to win.
DEMO KING SYNDROME: DISADVANTAGES OF A DEMO ACCOUNTThis post is directed towards novice traders who harbor the belief that honing trading skills and mastering profit-making strategies is achievable solely through practice on a demo account. However, the unforgiving reality of statistics paints a stark picture: approximately 65-80% of novice traders find themselves facing financial losses within the initial months of transitioning to a real trading account. Surprisingly, the extent of practice on a demo account beforehand appears inconsequential in mitigating these losses. If your aim is to cultivate profitable trading abilities while safeguarding your account from losses, relying solely on a demo account will inevitably fall short of achieving this goal.
DISADVANTAGES OF A DEMO ACCOUNT 🚫
A demo account works like a simulator, allowing you to do everything you would on a real account, but with virtual money instead of real funds. In essence, it's designed to help you get comfortable with the trading platform.
PSYCHOLOGY 🧠
Trading on a demo account provides a risk-free environment, shielding traders from the consequences of losing real money and thus alleviating mental strain. Consequently, traders might exhibit a tendency towards more aggressive decision-making compared to their approach on a live account. In the absence of mental pressure and the fear of missing out (FOMO), errors are less likely to surface.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO STUDY THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TRADING 📝
One of the pivotal aspects of successful trading lies in the adept management of emotions. Yet, it's widely acknowledged that the emotions experienced on a demo account pale in comparison to those felt on a live one, making it challenging for traders to grasp how these emotions influence their decision-making. When a trader initiates a trade, it's akin to embodying a different persona altogether.
A demo account falls short in providing a crucial element: it fails to address the fear associated with taking the first step into live trading; instead, it perpetuates hesitation. Every time a trader deliberates on transitioning to a real account, excuses surface: "I'm not quite prepared yet," or "I need to further refine my strategies," and so on. Despite spending an indefinite amount of time on a demo account, the leap to real trading remains elusive.
NO NEED TO CAREFULLY OBSERVE RISK MANAGEMENT 📊
There's often a tendency to overlook the importance of diligent risk management. Why bother calculating the risk percentage for each trade or determining the stop loss length when there's no fear of losing money from a demo account? After all, it's easy to replenish virtual funds at any time. Consequently, even if a trader sets out to learn about risk calculation, they may approach it with less seriousness at a subconscious level. Consider this: A trader may achieve impressive gains, perhaps even exceeding 20%, in a single trade on a demo account. But can they replicate the same success on a real account?
SLIPPAGES 🔢
Slippage is a critical consideration in trading dynamics. On a live account, brokers source quotes from providers, and ensuring that traders receive these quotes with millisecond precision is technically advantageous for the broker. This precision becomes paramount in algorithmic trading, where even a split-second delay can translate into a significant price shift of several pips. Conversely, in the controlled environment of a demo account, trades are executed seamlessly. However, it's essential to note that slippages, especially those spanning several points, can markedly impact outcomes, particularly in high-frequency trading strategies like scalping. The primary distinction lies in the timeliness of quote delivery: traders on live accounts benefit from real-time, accurate quotes, whereas those on demo accounts may encounter delays.
COMMISSIONS $
On a demo account, commissions are often not fully accounted for.
ALL FUNCTIONS OF THE TRADING PLATFORM ARE NOT ALWAYS AVAILABLE 🖥️
It's worth noting that not all features of the trading platform are consistently available on demo accounts. Certain brokers might opt to limit access to specific functions on these trial platforms, perhaps as a means of encouraging traders to transition to a live account. However, it's important to recognize that a demo account holds intrinsic value. It serves as a practical tool for grasping the fundamental concepts of trading. Particularly for those who are new to the platform, a demo account offers a risk-free avenue for gaining familiarity.
Moreover, viewing demo trading as a game of chance is not uncommon. Just as some individuals enjoy racing or strategy games, others find satisfaction in virtual trading simulations. Over time, engaging in this activity can gradually pique interest in trying one's hand in the real market.
CONCLUSION 💡
Novice traders often perceive a demo account solely as a simulator for mastering the art of profitable trading, which is a misconception that frequently results in losses when transitioning to a real account. However, the true purpose of a demo account is twofold: first, to acquaint oneself with the functionalities of the platform, such as executing trades, calculating trade volumes, and utilizing indicators; and second, to test trading strategies. If a strategy proves to be unprofitable on a demo account, it's highly likely to yield losses on a real account as well. Conversely, even if a strategy yields positive results during demo testing, there's no guarantee of success on a real account. The true mastery of trading with financial assets can only be attained through experience on a real account.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Understanding the Differences Between Stock Market and Crypto P2Thank you very much for your support, as I told when we will get 20+ likes on Part 1, than I will make Part 2. Here you get the summary of each, with the other points:
10. Market Infrastructure: The infrastructure supporting traditional stock markets, including trading platforms, clearing systems, and market data providers, is well-established and interconnected, whereas the infrastructure for the crypto market is still evolving and fragmented, with multiple competing platforms and protocols.
11. Market History: Traditional stock markets have a long history dating back centuries, with well-documented market cycles and economic trends, whereas the crypto market has a relatively short history, with significant price movements driven by technological developments and market speculation.
12. Regulation of Investment Products: Traditional stock markets offer a wide range of investment products, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), all subject to regulatory oversight, whereas the crypto market primarily offers cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets with varying degrees of regulatory clarity.
13. Market Correlation: Stocks and traditional financial assets often exhibit correlations with broader economic indicators such as GDP growth and interest rates, whereas the crypto market may demonstrate correlations with factors such as Bitcoin dominance, market sentiment, and technological developments.
14. Market Participants: Traditional stock markets attract a diverse range of participants, including retail investors, institutional investors, hedge funds, and pension funds, whereas the crypto market has a more diverse participant base, including retail traders, technology enthusiasts, speculators, and early adopters of blockchain technology.
15. Market Fragmentation: The stock market operates as a unified marketplace with standardized trading rules and regulations, whereas the crypto market is fragmented across multiple exchanges, each with its own trading protocols, liquidity pools, and pricing mechanisms.
16. Market Impact of News Events: News events such as corporate earnings releases, economic data reports, and geopolitical developments have a significant impact on stock market movements, whereas the crypto market may react more strongly to news related to regulatory developments, technological advancements, and adoption trends.
17. Market Efficiency: The efficiency of traditional stock markets is supported by established trading mechanisms, liquidity providers, and market makers, leading to relatively stable price discovery and reduced arbitrage opportunities, whereas the crypto market may experience inefficiencies due to lower liquidity, market manipulation, and regulatory uncertainties.
Stock Market:
Pros:
Stability: Stock markets have a long history and are generally stable investment options.
Regulation: They are heavily regulated, providing a level of security for investors.
Diversification: Investors can choose from a wide range of stocks across various sectors and industries.
Dividends: Many stocks offer dividends, providing a source of passive income.
Access to Information: There is a wealth of financial information available for analysis and research.
Cons:
Limited Trading Hours: Stock markets operate during specific hours on weekdays, limiting trading opportunities.
High Entry Barriers: Some stocks may require a significant investment, making it inaccessible for small investors.
Market Volatility: While generally stable, stock markets can still experience significant volatility during economic downturns or market crises.
Slow Settlement: Settlement times for stock transactions can take several days, delaying access to funds.
Limited Accessibility: Access to certain stocks may be restricted based on geographical location or regulatory requirements.
Crypto Market:
Pros:
24/7 Trading: Cryptocurrency markets operate 24/7, allowing for round-the-clock trading.
Accessibility: Anyone with internet access can participate in the crypto market, promoting inclusivity.
Potential for High Returns: The crypto market has seen explosive growth, offering the potential for high returns on investment.
Decentralization: Cryptocurrencies operate on decentralized networks, reducing dependency on centralized authorities.
Technological Innovation: The crypto market is at the forefront of technological innovation, with developments in blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi).
Cons:
Volatility: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and can experience rapid price fluctuations.
Lack of Regulation: Regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market can lead to investment risks and market manipulation.
Security Risks: Cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets are susceptible to hacking and cyberattacks.
Limited Adoption: Despite growth, cryptocurrencies still face challenges in widespread adoption as a mainstream form of payment.
Complexity: Understanding cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology can be challenging for newcomers, leading to potential investment mistakes.
Summary:
Both the stock market and the crypto market offer unique opportunities and challenges for investors. The stock market provides stability, regulation, and a wide range of investment options, while the crypto market offers accessibility, potential for high returns, and technological innovation. Deciding which market is better depends on individual preferences, risk tolerance, and investment goals. Diversification across both markets may provide a balanced approach to building an investment portfolio.