Roaring 2020s trading-investing economyAs you can see on the presented chart we made current economy started in 1998 with the crash of the LTCM, MFG, Bankruptcy of Russian Federation and BoE. With occasional dumps in liquidity we're heading into new golden era of global finance. Let us introduce you to what we think is the most impotant financal instruments in the world right now. Said instruments is the most liquid financial markets in the world leaving aside rest of the economy we will speak about later. So it would be Standart and Poors which is the most profitable companies in the United States of America, numbers about this field are presented on the top of the chart. Second to this further to the bottom of the presented chart are numbers about gold market, New York Stock Exchange volatility, United States of America 20 year yield, GDP, Labour Inflation, Oil markets, Russian Federation GDP, Russian Federation Moscow Exchange liquidity which is equivalent to quintillion rubles, said exchange volatility level called RVI, Inflation of Labour of the same country. After this goes Passives/Actives of the most expensive venture in the dynamically changing world Federal Reserve. And last but not the least goes 20 year yield of China Republic and Russian Federation. Try to analyse presented chart with your idea of public markets and how they react on the events you see as important or playing a big role in life. Thank you for your attention please read and comment see you in later events. And remember correlation do not present cause effect. We wish you luck in roaring 2020s keep yourself in the peace mood of mind.
Fundamental Analysis
Become a Trading Machine – 11 Ways!If you want to trade well and consistently.
You have to be more mechanically orientated.
I’ll be literally quick and brief.
Saying “literally” was unnecessary and made it longer.
Sorry.
Here are the pointers:
1. Stay committed
2. Cultivate patience
3. Avoid herd mentality
4. Be long-term oriented
5. Stop crying over losers
6. Review your performance
7. Stop celebrating winners
8. Adapt to market conditions
9. Keep your emotions in check
10. Don’t think of quick success
11. Adapt and advance with technology
Are there any ways you take to be a trading machine?
Let me know!
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools.
However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced.
During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading?
I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away.
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"The Wall Street Jungle"
Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry.
Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances.
Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes.
What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory.
"Trading in the Zone"
By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset.
This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one.
"The Wealth of Nations"
Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics.
In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society.
For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit.
"The Go-Giver"
Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories.
self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals.
The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver."
The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market.
"The Zurich Axioms"
A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management.
The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets.
For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets.
"Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side"
Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies.
In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly.
I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books.
"How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities"
And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities.
For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal.
"Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe"
A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets.
The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles.
If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say.
"Master the art of Trading"
By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible.
This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques.
"The Intelligent Investor"
a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing."
The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation.
I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage.
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I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
Risk/Reward Ratios 101In trading, the risk/reward ratio stands as the beacon guiding every trader's decisions. But what exactly is this ratio, and how does it define your success in the market?
In this article we will describe how risk/reward ratio affects your trading performance.
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Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio:
At its core, the risk/reward ratio quantifies the balance between the potential gain and the potential loss in a trade. It’s a critical tool that aids traders in choosing trades wisely, ensuring they opt for opportunities that promise high rewards while keeping risks minimal.
Calculating the Ratio:
The calculation itself is straightforward. By dividing the potential loss by the potential profit, traders can gauge the attractiveness of a trade. For instance, if a trade has a potential loss of $5 and a potential profit of $15, the risk/reward ratio would be 1:3, indicating that for every unit of risk, there's the potential for three units of reward.
Implementing the Ratio in Trading:
Successful traders plan their trades, setting predetermined entry and exit points. This strategy allows to calculate the risk/reward ratio accurately, ensuring trades with favorable ratios.
For instance, consider a scenario where a trader aims for a 15% profit and sets a stop-loss at 5%. By maintaining a discipline of setting targets based on market analysis rather than arbitrary numbers, traders can achieve a consistent profits.
The Synergy with Win Rates:
Combining the risk/reward ratio with win rates elevates a trader's strategy. A higher win rate indicates more successful trades, further enhancing the overall profitability. For instance, a trader with a 60% win rate can afford a lower ratio, say 1:1 minumum, as the majority of their trades are profitable.
The Power of the Risk/Reward Calculation:
The true power of the risk/reward ratio lies in its ability to provide traders with an asymmetric opportunity. This means that the potential upside is significantly greater than the potential downside, leading to more profitable trades over the long term.
Keeping Records for Improvement:
Maintaining a trading journal is crucial. By documenting trades, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of their strategies' performance. Analyzing these records aids in adapting strategies for different market conditions and asset classes, leading to refined decision-making.
In conclusion, mastering the risk/reward ratio is paramount for every trader aiming for consistent profitability. By understanding, calculating, and implementing this ratio alongside win rates, traders can make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and ensure sustainable success in the volatile world of trading. So, remember, in the world of trading, it's not just about how much you win; it's about how much you win concerning what you risk.
PUT TO BED: Trading VS GamblingIt’s a big debate that runs the financial market.
Is trading gambling?
Well I’m going to try put it to bed in just a few sentences.
There are two types of gambling.
Gambling by chance and total randomness like slot machines, lotteries, Bingo, Wheel of Fortune and flipping coins.
And strategic gambling which allows you elements of control of coming out with a probabilistic chance of winning.
I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Game #1: Trading and Poker: Skill, Strategy, and a Bit of Luck
In poker, each player gets a unique hand of cards.
To win, players must devise a strategy based on their understanding of the game, their observation of their opponents, and their willingness to take risks.
Players can choose to play, bet or fold.
The same principles apply to trading.
Traders have their ‘hand’ in the form of markets to choose to trade.
To yield profit, they must understand market trends, observe competitors’ behaviours, and manage risks.
In poker, one needs to know when to fold and when to bet aggressively.
In trading we have stop losses to get us out of the trade.
We have take profits to bank our wins.
We have volume choices of how much to buy or sell.
And we have the choice to stay out completely.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience, which are crucial in trading, where emotional decisions can lead to significant losses.
Game #2: Trading and Roulette: Understanding Probabilities
Roulette is largely a game of chance where players bet on numbers, colours, or sets of numbers.
You choose whether you want to bet on red, black, even, odd, specific numbers and so on…
Although the outcomes are random, players can use probability to guide their decisions.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
But instead of placing chips on certain numbers, we place deposits (margins) in the hopes of a probable outcome.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack: Playing Against the Market (House)
Blackjack involves strategic decisions, where players decide to ‘hit’ or ‘stand’ based on their current hand and the dealer’s visible card.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn.
In trading, technical analysis serves a similar purpose by predicting future market movements based on past data.
Bet too high with trading and you stand to lose a lot more.
And if you can’t count with Black Jack, then you have a much bigger disadvantage to the game.
If you don’t have strong and stringent money management principles, then good luck trying to maintain, preserve and protect your portfolio.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing: Know your horse!
Horse racing involves choosing the right horse based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
This is like trading. You need to understand each market you trade.
It has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You also need to know which market is conducive for your trading portfolio.
And you need to choose the right stock or asset to trade based on its performance history, current market conditions, and other factors.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting: Predictive Analysis and Risk
Sports betting also works similar to trading.
You need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, home and away records, and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to know your team players, strategy and likelihood of who is to win what game.
Traders also conduct similar analyses, studying companies’ financial health, market trends, and technical indicators to predict market movements.
And as always, there are both risks that need to be calculated and managed for high probability successful outcomes.
So next time when someone tells you trading is just gambling. You tell them, they are right but it’s strategic gambling rather than gambling by chance.
The Mind of an Ego Trader – 10 ActionsWe always hear of the two most dangerous states of trading.
Fear and greed.
But I think there is one more state, that really drives a trader to financial collapse.
EGO.
Ego is thinking you’re always right where you ignore risk and caution.
It’s the voice in your head that tells you to make risky choices because you believe you know better.
To overcome being an ego trader, we need to go inside the mind of one.
Let’s start…
Ego traders overtrade
One of the most common pitfalls of ego trading is overtrading.
This is the act of buying and selling markets way more than you should.
They believe that the more they trade, the more profits they will make.
Solution:
Adopt a well-defined trading strategy and stick to it. You need to know how and where to enter your trades with strict risk management.
Remember, quality should always be prioritized over quantity.
Ego traders like to revenge Trade
Ego traders refuse to be wrong.
They’ll take a trade in one direction, bank a loss.
And then immediately get in again, but in the opposite direction – to make up for losses.
Their goal is not to trade well but to recoup any losses ASAP.
This behaviour is often driven by the ego’s inability to accept a loss. And this will drive them crazy until they blow a big portion of their account.
Solution:
Acceptance is key.
Every trader is going to take losses.
You need to take the loss (see it as the cost of trading), and come back the next day.
Take a step back, analyse the situation objectively, and stick to your trading plan.
Ego traders ignore risk management
Egotistical traders think like this.
“I want to grow rich quickly and refuse to only bank 3% to 4% of my portfolio per trade”.
They instead risk 5%, 10% and sometimes go full port.
They have this invincibility complex, that the more money they risk the more likely they’ll build their account quickly.
But this is reckless and your portfolio won’t last long. This will often lead to disproportionate losses.
Solution:
I sound like a parrot by now.
Always adhere to your risk management rules.
Determine your risk tolerance, set risk-reward ratios for your trades, and never risk more than you’re willing to lose on a single trade. You know this!
Dismiss Market Analysis
Ego traders are emotional.
They mainly trust their feelings, their jiminy cricket voices and their instincts over solid and proven market analysis.
This will obviously lead to discretionary trading decisions, which will eventually lead them with no strategy, no discipline, no rules, and no portfolio.
Solution:
Become a trading machine.
Think like a robot and always base your decisions on thorough market analysis.
This includes both technical analysis (price trends, indicators, etc.) and fundamental analysis (economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors).
Ego traders blame everything
Ego traders often blame the market, their broker, their children, the media, or unexpected news for their losses.
You need to grow up and take on the mature approach. Every financial decision and action you make, is solely your responsibility.
Solution:
Take responsibility for your actions.
Understand that the market is unpredictable and losses are a part of trading.
Don’t trade if you’re feeling distracted,
Don’t trade if you’re feeling you’ll blame something or someone.
Learn from your mistakes and learn to humble yourself before the market does.
Ego trader are trend top and bottom pickers
These are the guys that literally try to ‘predict’ bottoms or tops.
They go against the current trend, and instead guess that the price will turn from here.
They give you every reason why the market will turn.
They know privy info that no one else does (even though all info is in the public domain).
They know strategies and indicators that make these predictions (even though all indicators are based on past data).
They see and feel out of their asses about change in trends.
And when they’re wrong (which most times they are), they find every reason, news event and indicator to guess when the market will turn.
This usually results in entering at a bad price and subsequently facing a huge loss.
Solution:
Leave the tops and bottoms.
Seriously, ignore the first 10% of the bottom. Leave 10% of the top.
Claim the 80% market move when the trend has confirmed and is showing strong momentum.
Enjoy going with the trend not against it.
Ego traders over leverage
It confounds me that traders want more leverage.
They show off about 20 times, 50 times up to 500 times.
You know what that means right?
You can lose 20, 50 or 500 times the money you put in.
Leverage is a double-edged sword.
You desire the big wins and only think of the big wins.
When then you are wrong (and you will be), you end up losing a colossal amount.
Solution:
Use leverage responsibly.
Lower the leverage, the better you can manage your risk and reward management.
Ego traders disregard stop losses
Stop losses are designed to limit a trader’s loss on a position.
However, there are two types of ego traders.
The ones that trade naked (without a stop loss) and the trade goes heavily against them where they lose their hat.
Then there are the ones that put in their stop loss. But then they move their stop loss FURTHER away where they can risk more.
Once this happens, they marry into their trade.
And they’ll keep moving the stop loss away again and again and again and then BOOK.
Gone.
Solution:
First rule – Always set a stop loss.
Second rule – NEVER move your stop loss where you can risk more.
Super important.
Ego traders dismiss discipline
They have major commitment issues.
They choose their days and times.
They trade now and then when they feel like it.
And this dismisses the discipline of taking every trade, one needs to take to build a consistent portfolio.
Solution:
See trading as a business. See trading as a job.
See your trading strategy as your boss.
Work accordingly like your life and livelihood depends on it.
Discipline is key in trading.
Maintain your discipline and eventually it’ll turn into integration.
Then you’re sorted.
Ego traders fail to adapt
The market is constantly changing.
There are always new markets.
There are always new platforms.
There are always new brokers.
There are always new innovations and features.
And yet ego traders, stay put.
You need to learn to adapt to market changes.
You need to constantly update yourself as a trader, your strategy, your watchlist and stay with the times.
With discipline, a clear plan, and a bit of humility, traders can better navigate the markets and improve their chances of success.
Let’s sum up the Mind of an Ego trader so you know how to overcome it.
Ego traders overtrade
Ego traders like to revenge Trade
Ego traders ignore risk management
Dismiss Market Analysis
Ego traders blame everything
Ego trader are trend top and bottom pickers
Ego traders over leverage
Ego traders disregard stop losses
Ego traders dismiss discipline
Ego traders fail to adapt
Decoding DeFi MetricsIn Decentralized Finance (DeFi), deciphering the wealth of new projects can be akin to navigating uncharted waters. However, amidst the chaos, fundamental analysis stands as a beacon, guiding investors and traders towards discerning the true value of DeFi assets.
1. Total Value Locked (TVL):
TVL, the sum of funds nestled within a DeFi protocol, provides a vital glimpse into market interest. Whether measured in ETH or USD, it illuminates a protocol's market saturation and investor confidence.
2. Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S Ratio):
In DeFi, just like traditional businesses, evaluating a protocol's value against its revenue stream offers a unique perspective. A lower P/S ratio suggests undervaluation, indicating a potential investment opportunity.
3. Token Supply on Exchanges:
Monitoring tokens on centralized exchanges unveils market dynamics. While a surplus may hint at sell-offs, complexities arise due to collateralized holdings, necessitating nuanced analysis.
4. Token Balance Changes on Exchanges:
Sudden shifts in token balances on exchanges signal imminent volatility. Large withdrawals hint at strategic accumulation, underscoring the importance of tracking market movements.
5. Unique Address Count:
More addresses usually imply widespread adoption. But beware! This metric can be deceptive. Cross-reference with other data for a clearer picture.
6. Non-Speculative Usage:
A token's utility is paramount. Assess its purpose beyond speculation. Transactions occurring outside exchanges signify genuine use, a testament to its value.
7. Inflation Rate:
While scarcity is a virtue, a token's inflation rate demands attention. Striking a balance between supply growth and value preservation is crucial, emphasizing the need for a holistic evaluation approach.
In the intricate DeFi landscape, these metrics serve as the foundations of strategic decision-making. Each data point unravels a layer of complexity, empowering investors to make astute choices. As you delve into the world of decentralized finance, armed with these insights thrive in the boundless universe of DeFi possibilities! 🚀💡
Cryptos vs. Stocks: Pros and Cons for TradersIn recent years, we've seen a surge in different ways to invest and grow our money. Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are a big part of this. They've become a hot topic, with a total value of over $1.8 trillion. But we shouldn't forget about traditional investments like stocks. In this article, we'll compare these two options to help you decide which might be better for you.
Let's start with a quick look at what cryptocurrencies and stocks are.
Cryptocurrencies: The New Digital Money
Cryptocurrencies are a relatively new type of digital money. They began with Bitcoin in 2009, created by someone using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Since then, there have been over 18,000 different cryptocurrencies created, and they're all worth more than $1.8 trillion in total.
Cryptocurrencies come in many forms. Some, like Bitcoin and Litecoin, act as digital coins for buying and selling. Others, like Monero, Dash, and Decred, focus on privacy. There are even meme coins like Shiba Inu and Floki Inu that started as internet jokes. Plus, there are digital governance tokens like UNI, LINK, and AAVE that play key roles in various cryptocurrency systems. These digital currencies can work in different ways, like using complex math problems for mining (proof-of-work) or relying on validators for coin creation (proof-of-stake).
Stocks: Owning a Piece of Companies
Stocks represent your ownership in publicly-listed companies. These companies go public to raise money from regular folks like you and me. You can buy and sell these shares through online brokers, such as Robinhood and Schwab.
In recent years, there has been a big increase in the number of publicly-traded companies. In the United States alone, there are over 4,000 of them. Together, these companies are worth more than $50 trillion in the US, and globally, all the stocks add up to over $93 trillion.
Now, let's look at what sets stocks and cryptocurrencies apart:
Ownership
When you own stocks, it means you own part of a company. That makes you a shareholder, and you get to share in the company's successes and failures. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, don't give you ownership in any company.
Profits
Stock ownership can earn you a cut of a company's profits. They might send you some of that profit through dividends or buying back your shares. With cryptocurrencies, profits come mostly from the value of the cryptocurrency going up or from rewards you get for helping run the cryptocurrency's network.
Rules
Stocks play by strict rules, especially in the US. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) makes sure that publicly-traded companies follow these rules and share all the important info with their shareholders. Cryptocurrencies have a bit more freedom, often with no one really watching over them. They're global, and it's easy for them to get listed on big exchanges.
So, whether you should choose stocks or cryptocurrencies really depends on what you want to do with your money, how much risk you can handle, and how you feel about the rules. Stocks let you own a piece of a company, share in the profits, and follow strict rules. Cryptocurrencies offer a chance to make money if their value goes up and often have a bit more freedom but less oversight. Both options can be good, but you need to know what you're doing and be careful with your money.
Trading Crypto vs. Stocks: A Side-by-Side Look
Trading in both stocks and cryptocurrencies has its similarities and differences. We'll break down these two trading worlds, including fundamental, technical, and price action analysis, while also highlighting the key differences in trading regulations.
Fundamental Analysis
In both stocks and cryptocurrencies, fundamental analysis involves examining important internal data. For stocks, this means looking at factors like earnings and user growth. In the world of cryptocurrencies, it's all about metrics such as total value locked (TVL) and ecosystem growth.
Technical Analysis
Traders in both markets rely on technical analysis. This involves scrutinizing charts and using indicators like moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI).
Price Action Analysis
Price action analysis is yet another technique shared by both markets. It involves studying chart and candlestick patterns to figure out market sentiment and potential price movements.
Trading Regulations: A Different World
When it comes to trading regulations, stocks and cryptocurrencies couldn't be more different:
Stock Trading Regulations:
Securities Exchange Act (1934): It established the SEC, introducing regulations such as corporate reporting, insider trading, and exchange registrations.
Investment Advisors Act: This one governs investment advisors, including regulations for compensation.
There are other notable laws such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Dodd-Frank, and the Wash Sale Rule.
Cryptocurrency Regulations:
Cryptocurrencies are relatively new, and as a result, they face limited regulatory oversight. This lack of regulation has created challenges, including scams and pump-and-dump schemes within the industry.
Pros and Cons: Cryptos vs. Stocks
--Cryptocurrencies--
Pros:
Global Accessibility: Cryptos allow for borderless trading without the constraints of international stocks.
Variety: With over 18,000 coins, there's a plethora of options for traders.
High Volatility: Cryptos can be highly volatile, offering potentially larger trading opportunities.
Cons:
Limited Regulation: Cryptos face minimal regulatory oversight, resulting in challenges like scams and pump-and-dump schemes.
--Stocks--
Pros:
Regulatory Safeguards: The stock market benefits from well-established regulations that help deter illicit activities.
Diverse Catalysts: Stocks respond to various factors like management changes and earnings reports, providing valuable insights.
Transparency: Companies make public disclosures, ensuring investors have access to comprehensive information.
Asset Variety: Stocks offer a wide array of choices, from small caps to mega-caps across various sectors, allowing for effective risk management through diversification.
Cons:
Market Manipulation: Stocks can be susceptible to market manipulation.
Economic Downturns: They are affected by economic downturns.
Liquidity Issues: Some stocks may face liquidity problems.
Why Stocks Might Have an Edge
In several aspects, stocks hold certain advantages over cryptocurrencies. Stocks benefit from a well-established regulatory framework, which acts as a safeguard against illicit activities. Moreover, the stock market generally witnesses fewer instances of scams compared to the cryptocurrency realm . Investors and traders in the stock market enjoy access to comprehensive and reliable information about companies due to public disclosures.
Stocks offer a diverse selection of assets, encompassing companies of varying sizes and spanning across diverse sectors of the economy. This variety enables traders to implement sophisticated diversification strategies to effectively manage risk within the stock market.
Final Thoughts
The decision between trading stocks and cryptocurrencies is a nuanced one, dependent on your trading objectives and preferences. Both asset classes have their unique characteristics and appeal to different investor profiles.
In conclusion, the choice between trading stocks and cryptocurrencies is influenced by individual preferences, risk tolerance, and trading goals. Both markets hold immense potential, but they also come with distinct characteristics and challenges. Achieving success in either arena necessitates a profound understanding of market dynamics, diligent risk management, and a clear alignment with your investment objectives. Make informed choices to thrive in the ever-evolving world of trading.
20 Trading Checklist in 2024In just two months, we are coming to the end of 2023.
If it's been a year of learning to trade and getting to grips with everything.
Then I have a 20 Trading Checklist for you to kickstart 2024.
Print it, save it and repeat this whenever you need a Jimney Cricket by your trading side.
You go this!
Love what you do
Trust the process
Never miss a trade
Don't fall for scams
Ask trading questions
Don't allow distractions
RE-evaluate your watchlist
YOU CAN ONLY GET BETTER
Celebrate taking each trade
Never extend your stop loss
Stop overthinking everything
Save 15 minutes a day to trade
Boost your trading knowledge
Screenshot every trading setup
Find the best time that suits you
Only follow your trading signals
Journal and jot down every trade
Follow your own trading time-line
Accept when market trends change
Deposit money to trade every month
Let me know if this helps.
T
DOUBLE TOP FORMATIONWhat is a double top?
This pattern appears when the price reaches some levels, makes a high, then goes down for a while. Then it comes back to about the same level and draws the same high at about the same level as the previous one, and then turns around and goes down. With a double top, this pattern is a reversal pattern and favors, subsequently, a downward price move.
What should I pay attention to?
Let's say you had some buys open; you saw a double top and, accordingly, decided to exit. So, how can you determine whether it is a quality pattern or not?
First of all, you should pay attention if there is a resistance level at the level of the double top. In this case, we have one top, the second one and we can pay attention to the fact that there is a level nearby. And it almost overlaps with our double top.
This gives additional strength to the pattern and it becomes more significant. Secondly, there should be at least six candlesticks between the two tops. That is, the tops should not literally follow each other.
There should be at least six candles between the tops. So that it visually looks like 2 peaks, not 2 or 3 candles next to each other. But at the same time take into account that if the second peak is very far from the first one, then this pattern is most likely not a pattern and it is just a coincidence, and most likely you will not see any strong trend reversal. A correction, perhaps, but no more than that. Accordingly, the farther the first top is located from the second one, the weaker the pattern is. This is because the significance of the chart formation is simply lost in time. Therefore, try to select trades in which the second touch is lower than the previous one, if possible.
And in case the reversal does take place, you can catch a very big movement. And if the space on the left looks filled, then accordingly, you should not count on any strong reversal. But strong global reversals are not so common, so it is not easy to catch them in any case. As they appear by themselves quite rarely.
How to enter the market?
Let's look at an example. As we know, this pattern is a reversal pattern. We have formed the first top, then the second top was formed and the price went up. You do not know what to do, to enter or not to enter, when to enter, where to put stop loss and take profit.
First, we build a trend line of the previous trend. Moreover, it should capture the lows that preceded the second top. In this case, we had an upward trend, so our trend line will be built approximately like this. Next, we put a horizontal line at the level of our last low that preceded the second top.
We will enter, as you guessed, at the breakdown of our trend line or neckline. And our target will be: the distance from our last low to the level of our last tops.
Entry on the breakoout of middle low. And you can put, of course, pending orders, you do not have to sit in front of the screen and wait for this breakout to happen and the stop-loss will be approximately at the level of our two tops, a little bit higher. And this is how the trade will look like.
UNDERSTANDING MOVING AVERAGEHello traders! 👋 🤗 Today I will try to explain to you guys another perspective and the concept of moving average. This is one of the oldest technical indicators and, perhaps, the most popular and most frequently used, as a huge number of other indicators are based on it. A lot has been written about moving averages. And at the same time, despite the abundance of information and respect for this instrument on the part of almost all traders, the issue of trading on MA is poorly covered. What do we often see about moving averages? Most of it is crossover. When one sacred line crosses another, we should enter the trade or something like that. I would like to show one simple method of working with moving averages.
A few important points
Only Simple Moving Average (MA) on closings is used. When working with moving averages, only 2 parameters are important: PERIOD AND SLOPE ANGLE . Any crossings and other things are not taken into account. Only MAs with a high period (from 100 and above) are used.
Thus, we can see the general direction, which looks a bit smoother and more obvious than a regular chart. In general, it is considered that if the price is above the moving average, it is an upward trend; if it is below the moving average, it is a downward trend. At the same time, the higher the period of the moving average, the more long-term the trend is. For example, with a moving average period of 21, we can say that if the price is above it, it is a rather short-term upward trend.
If the moving average period is much bigger, say 100, and the price is above the moving average with a period of 100, then we can say that there is a solid upward trend. If the price is below the moving average with a longer period (for example, 100), then we realize that there is a solid downward trend.
In other words, the longer the period of the moving average, the more inflexible it is because it has to calculate the average value for the last candles (in our case, 100). This is a lot. And, accordingly, the longer the moving average period, the more important it is in the long term. Our job as traders is to squeeze everything out of the movement. The least job is to stay at breakeven and don’t blow the account. That is why large MA periods are used. And do not believe the words when they say that MAs are lagging.
For the demonstration we will use 3 timeframes: 4 hoursly - 1 daily - 1 weekly. As practice shows, the approach described below works even in the combination of 5 minutes - 15 minutes - 1 hour. This for day traders.
Examples of moving averages
As an example, we will now show the chart of one asset from 3 timeframes as already mentioned above:
Weekly (MA 100) will show us the direction of the global trend
Dayly (MA 200) the medium-term trend
4-hourly (MA 100) the actual entry points and setting Stop loss and Take profit
The essence of working with big MAs is very simple: we can trade only in the direction of MA movement, and at the entry point, the price should be on one side of all MAs (above or below it) on all 3 timeframes. In this case, the mandatory condition is that the angle of slope of the MA of the highest period must be strong, approximately 45 degrees.
AUDCHF weekly
Go down to the daily timeframe and apply MA 200. We highlight the areas where the price is also below the MA 200 on the daily timeframe. We also take into account the slope angle of the current MA. We highlight this movement with a green block.
AUDCHF daily
AUDCHF 4H
Now we go to H4 and apply MA 100. This is the timeframe for a possible entry point. We select the block where the price is below the MA on the current timeframe. We cut off all the moments when the price was above the MA, highlight the price movement below the MA with yellow blocks
3 potential areas where we can look for entry points to open short positions. Let's take a closer look at each area.
First opportunity
Second opportunity
Third opportunity
Of course, on live trading, things would be much more difficult. But as you can see, we got at least two very clean trades that screamed to take them.
Another one
EURJPY weekly
EURJPY daily
EURJPY 4H
Closer look
Again in hindsight everything looks good, but the purpose of this post is to help you build and understand a slightly different method of applying moving averages if you use them. As you can see, trend trading is actually much easier.
What about sideways movements?
If the trend is more or less clear, and as soon as the SMA on the higher timeframe (say, daily) shows a more flat angle of slope for the last 5–10 bars, we have a sideways movement. You can try to take advantage of this on the lower timeframes.
In this post I tried to show how to systematize and demonstrate my approach to trading on moving averages. Of course, there are many methods of trading on short-term moving averages, on the combination of multi-period MAs on one chart, etc. Sometimes it is hard to describe in words what is "right" angle of slope, and the overall price movement, I guess all this comes only with personal experience.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Trading Commandments: The Decalogue for Success 📈🔟💼
In the world of trading, there are timeless principles that serve as guiding beacons for traders, both novice and seasoned. These commandments are the keys to unlocking success, managing risk, and navigating the financial markets. In this comprehensive guide, we unveil the "10 Trading Commandments," each accompanied by real-world examples to reinforce their importance. Join us on this journey to master the art of trading, enriched with practical insights and wisdom.
The 10 Trading Commandments
1. Thou Shalt Know Thy Risk Tolerance 📊
Understanding your risk tolerance is fundamental. Your trading decisions should always align with your comfort level for potential losses.
Risk-Averse Trader
2. Thou Shalt Have a Plan and Follow It 📝
A trading plan is your roadmap to success. It should encompass your goals, strategies, and risk management rules.
The Disciplined Trader
The Power of the Decalogue
3. Thou Shalt Diversify Thy Portfolio 🌐
4. Thou Shalt Continuously Educate Thyself 📚
5. Thou Shalt Embrace Risk Management 🛡
6. Thou Shalt Keep Emotions in Check 🧘
7. Thou Shalt Adapt to Changing Markets 🔄
8. Thou Shalt Not Chase Losses 🚫
9. Thou Shalt Master Patience 🕰
10. Thou Shalt Keep Records of Thy Trades 📖
The "10 Trading Commandments" are not mere guidelines; they are the foundation upon which successful traders build their careers. These principles, when consistently followed, enable traders to navigate the markets with confidence, wisdom, and resilience. Whether you're just starting your trading journey or are a seasoned pro, embracing these commandments can lead to a more prosperous and rewarding trading experience. 📈🔟💼
What do you want to learn in the next post?
WWIII's Portfolio!The best asset allocation for a possible WWIII would depend on a number of factors, including the severity of the conflict, the duration of the conflict, and the impact of the conflict on the global economy. However, some general principles can be applied.
First, it is important to consider the potential for hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a rapid and sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services. It is often caused by war or political instability. In a hyperinflationary environment, cash and other assets that are fixed in nominal terms, such as bonds, can lose value rapidly.
Second, it is important to consider the potential for asset seizures. In times of war, governments may seize assets from their citizens, especially foreign assets. This is why it is important to have a diversified asset allocation that includes assets that are held in different countries and jurisdictions.
Food, Energy, and Tech Supply Chain Disruption!
Third, it is important to consider the potential for supply chain disruptions. War can disrupt supply chains and make it difficult to obtain essential goods and services. This is why it is important to have a diversified asset allocation that includes assets that are not essential for everyday living.
Based on these principles, some potential asset allocations for a possible WWIII include:
Cash:
Cash is a liquid asset that can be used to purchase goods and services. However, it is important to note that cash can lose value rapidly in a hyperinflationary environment.
Precious metals:
Precious metals, such as gold and silver, are often used as a hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, precious metals can also be volatile and can lose value in times of economic uncertainty.
Real estate:
Real estate can be a good hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, real estate is also illiquid and can be difficult to sell in times of economic uncertainty.
Commodities:
Commodities, such as oil and wheat, can be a good hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, commodities can also be volatile and can lose value in times of economic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrencies:
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are a new asset class that has the potential to be a good hedge against asset seizures . However, cryptocurrencies are also highly volatile and can be risky.
It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all asset allocation for a possible WWIII. Your best asset allocation will depend on your circumstances and risk tolerance.
Here are some additional things to consider when developing an asset allocation for a possible WWIII:
Your time horizon:
If you are investing for the long term, you can afford to take on more risk. However, if you are investing for the short term, you may want to focus on more conservative assets.
Your risk tolerance:
How much risk are you comfortable with? If you are not comfortable with losing money, you may want to focus on more conservative assets. However, if you are more comfortable with risk, you may be able to generate higher returns by investing in more risky assets.
I hope this article helps you to rebalance your portfolio for a possible tension escalation.
A historical review on WWII:
World War II Timeline of Events and Potential Motives
1933
* January 30: Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.
* March 24: Germany leaves the League of Nations.
1935
* March 7: Germany remilitarizes the Rhineland.
* October 3: Italy invades Ethiopia.
1936
* March 7: Germany remilitarizes the Rhineland.
* July 18: Spanish Civil War begins.
* October 25: Germany and Italy form the Rome-Berlin Axis.
1937
* July 7: Japan invades China.
1938
* March 13: Germany annexes Austria.
* September 29: Munich Agreement signed, allowing Germany to annex the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia.
1939
* March 15: Germany occupies the rest of Czechoslovakia.
* August 23: Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed between Germany and the Soviet Union.
* September 1: Germany invades Poland, marking the beginning of World War II.
* September 3: Britain and France declare war on Germany.
Potential motives for World War II
*German expansionism:** Hitler's goal was to create a Greater German Reich, which would include all German-speaking people in Europe.
*Japanese imperialism:** Japan was seeking to expand its empire in Asia and the Pacific.
*Italian fascism:** Benito Mussolini wanted to create a new Roman Empire and to restore Italy to its former glory.
*Soviet expansionism:** Joseph Stalin wanted to expand the Soviet Union's sphere of influence in Europe.
*Failure of appeasement:** The Western democracies' policy of appeasement, which involved giving in to Hitler's demands in order to avoid war, ultimately failed to deter him from invading Poland.
Other factors that contributed to the outbreak of World War II include:
*The rise of nationalism and militarism in Europe: After World War I, many countries in Europe were experiencing economic and political instability. This led to the rise of nationalist and militaristic movements, which promised to solve their problems and restore their countries to their former greatness.
*The economic crisis of the 1930s:** The Great Depression caused widespread unemployment and poverty in Europe. This led to social and political unrest, which made it easier for extremist leaders like Hitler to come to power.
*The weakness of the League of Nations:** The League of Nations was created after World War I to prevent future wars. However, it was weak and ineffective, and it was unable to stop Hitler and other aggressors from invading their neighbors.
World War II was a devastating conflict that resulted in the deaths of millions of people. It was caused by a complex combination of factors, including the rise of nationalism and militarism, the economic crisis of the 1930s, and the weakness of the League of Nations.
When You Should NOT Trade! 11 Reasons to Take a Step BackYou have two choices each day you open your trading platform.
To trade or not to trade.
There are circumstances that will rise where you won’t trade for that day. Then there are times where you should NOT trade at all. And then there are situations where you need to avoid trading.
You know when to trade. Now here are a couple of 11 reasons to take a step back with trading.
After a bunch of knocks
After you take a couple of losses, it might feel natural to want to jump right back in.
You don’t want to lose.
You want to recoup your losses.
You want to ride the prominent trend.
You have to learn to resist this temptation. Whether you buy or sell, if the market is in a bad state or environment – you’re likely to lose your positions.
So take a step back and come back tomorrow.
The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies
I’ve told you many times.
Any occurrence where you are NOT following your proven strategy is deadly.
Revenge and impulse trading (to try and make up for any losses) is a dangerous path.
Not only for the day.
But it scars and sets a precedent for you to do it in the future.
In the medium term, it’s a surefire way to harm your portfolio.
Learn to recognize and control these tendencies.
Rather take a step back and come back, the next day, with a more rational and logical approach.
The absence of clear setups
If you don’t have any high probability trades that have lined up, forget trying to take a trade.
This is like sailing with a destination in mind without a compass.
Trades will come. The markets will always be there for you tomorrow.
So wait them out…
Emotional instability
Emotions when trading are a dangerous trait to have.
Anxiety, excitement, ego, fear, greed or distress can cloud your judgment.
If you’re emotionally unstable, you need to take a step back and learn to control your emotions.
Drop your risk, ‘till you no longer feel a loser or winner.
Continue backtesting until you regain your confidence.
Refrain from trading until you learn to balance your emotions.
Can’t afford it – forget it!
If the funds you’re using for trading are essential for your survival or well-being, this is a red flag.
You are going to be highly dependent and emotionally attached to your funds.
I say it over and over…
Do not trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
It creates an unhealthy pressure that can influence your trading decisions.
Don’t know it – Don’t trade it.
If you lack a solid understanding of markets, methods or money management – you’re not ready to trade.
You need to understand the above along with the market dynamics, the costs and process of instruments and how your trading and charting platform works.
Education is key here. Learn, learn, learn.
When you have less questions and more answers, then it might be a better time to take the trade.
Low probability setups
When the market is moving nowhere slowly.
Or the markets are moving wildly with high volatility – this might be a time to not trade.
The risk and uncertainty of the market is high.
And this will result in only low probability trade setups lining up.
If you really want to trade them, because you have nothing better to do – fine.
But at least risk LESS.
Risk between 0.5% to 1% of your portfolio instead of the full 2%.
When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable
Physical well-being also plays an important role.
Your mental state affects your trading performance.
If you’re not in the right mindset, consider taking a break.
Avoid trading if you’re not feeling well, exhausted, angry, or you’re feeling unstable.
Get your mind right, recover and see the markets with healthier and happier eyes.
That made sense to me :/
No clear setup
Sometimes, you might analyse the markets.
And you’ll see nothing.
Then, you’ll re-analyse and look EXTRA carefully.
You’ll look and look and look until, somehow a trade presents itself.
I’m telling you now, this is a dangerous time to take the trade.
A trade should stick out like a sore thumb (according to your strategy).
If it doesn’t, then you’re trying to see something that most likely is NOT There.
Trade based on sound, proven and strong analyses, not via imagination and hope.
During major economic announcements
This point is more related and significant to Forex traders.
If you see a high impact economic announcement, report, meeting etc…
It might be a good idea to take a step back, and skip trading for the day.
I’m talking about NFP, Unemployment, GDP, FOMC, Interest and Inflation rates etc…
Without a trading plan
A well-crafted trading plan is your roadmap.
It’s your game-plan to make a probability prediction on a potential outcome.
You need to eat, breath, shower and sleep with your trading strategy.
If you don’t have one, don’t trade until you develop a plan and are ready to stick to it.
Right so, now you now when to take a step back and NOT trade.
I’ll sum them up here for you…
After a bunch of knocks
The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies
The absence of clear setups
Emotional instability
Can’t afford it – forget it!
Don’t know it – Don’t trade it.
Low probability setups
When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable
No clear setup
During major economic announcements
Without a trading plan
Bitcoin Q3 OverviewKey Takeaways:
- Poor quarter over quarter price performance at -11.5%, but BTC it still outperforming most asset classes including gold, treasuries, commodities, cash, and REITs year to date
- US bid that drove Bitcoin up in H1 has fully diminished at the time of writing
- Volume, liquidity, volatility, and search trends all continue to decline
- Grayscale’s discount to NAV has closed from -48% to -16% throughout the year
- Percentage of Bitcoin held by long term holders has reached an all time high of over 76%
- Bitcoin native valuation still shows BTC is in lower bounds of value
- Active addresses slightly up while transfer volume (entity-adjusted) continues to decline
Following a strong H1 price performance for Bitcoin, Q3 showed to be lackluster for BTC, down 11.5% quarter over quarter.
However, in this great chart from NYDIG, we can see that throughout 2023 YTD Bitcoin has quietly outperformed most major asset classes including large cap growth, mid and small cap growth, US and European stocks, commodities, treasuries, gold, cash, emerging markets, and REITs.
One of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of the year was the Bitcoin ETF applications that were filed by several well-known traditional financial institutions including Blackrock and Fidelity. These filings were followed with a strong bid for BTC during US trading hours. As shown below, this US trading hour premium that was quite noticeable in March, has since fully diminished.
This is also reflected by Bitcoin’s CME futures open interest declining, which is primarily traded by traditional hedge funds, family offices, etc. Open interest refers to the number of futures contracts outstanding.
Other measures of excitement in the Bitcoin market have also shown a decline, including Bitcoin’s trading volume across spot and futures, Bitcoin’s 3-month futures basis (difference between spot and 3 month futures contracts), and can even be reflected by measures as basic as google search trends. It is safe to say that the Bitcoin market is in a period of deep apathy.
One positive trend that we’ve seen throughout the year is the GBTC discount to net asset value closing in, reflecting increased sentiment around Grayscale’s likelihood of being able to convert their current closed end trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Throughout 2023 the GBTC discount has closed in from -48% to just -16%.
In terms of valuation, one of the metrics that we follow most closely is the MVRV ratio. This compares Bitcoin’s current marginal trading price to its realized price, which is the cost basis of the entire network based on on-chain data. The idea of the methodology is that whenever MVRV is high, market participants are sitting with a large amount of unrealized profit and are incentivized to realize some of that profit, while when going negative means that the market in aggregate is underwater by definition. While the market is no longer in deep undervalued territory as it was at the end of last year, it is still far from overheated levels reached during the peak of 2017 and 2021.
Whether Bitcoin’s cyclicality is driven by halvings, macro forces, general behavior dynamics, or a combination of all three is up for debate; but when comparing this current cycle’s performance from its lows relative to Bitcoin’s three prior cycles, things appear to be playing out quite similarly from a time perspective.
Meanwhile, flipping over to network activity, we can see that the percentage of Bitcoin’s supply held by long term holders has reached an all time high at over 76%. This means that more than 3 out of every 4 BTC it held by long term holders. For reference, long term holders are defined as on-chain entities that have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, a threshold where on-chain data scientists have found the likelihood of coins being spent drops off the most significantly. This reflects the deep belief of Bitcoin’s core holder base despite crypto market wide contagion and macro uncertainty, as well as the rise of custody products.
When plotting out the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long term holders relative to short term holders, we can see the impulses that shape Bitcoin’s multi-year market cycles, as savvy investors accumulate throughout the bear market and distribute into the bull.
Another positive trend underneath the hood is the amount of Bitcoin held by on-chain entities with less than 10 Bitcoin, which not only trends up and to the right throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, has seen a large rise over the trailing year, with this quarter being no different. This is a positive trend that we’d like to see continue for the sake of Bitcoin’s supply distribution.
This quarter Bitcoin’s block height breached 800,000, a milestone reflecting that the decentralized network has continued to function as intended for well over a decade.
Bitcoin's hash rate has also set new all time highs this quarter, but with the halving on the horizon, increased competition may spell troubles for miners without competitive energy costs.
Active addresses saw a jump from 950,000 to just over 1,000,000 throughout Q3.
Meanwhile, the 7 day moving average of Glassnode’s entity-adjusted transfer volume continues to slump, down to just over $3.1 billion settled by the Bitcoin network a day.
Although still down from its July highs, Bitcoin’s public lightning network capacity jumped in Bitcoin terms throughout the last few weeks, currently sitting at 5,200 BTC. It is worth noting that this is just public lightning network capacity, and true figures may look different.
The USD denominated version of lightning network capacity offers a less favorable look, down to $140 million from its late 2021 peak of $215 million.
For the full report including all charts, click here .
Disclaimer: This research report is exactly that — a research report. It is not intended to serve as financial advice, nor should you blindly assume that any of the information is accurate without confirming through your own research. Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other digital assets are incredibly risky and nothing in this report should be considered an endorsement to buy or sell any asset. Never invest more than you are willing to lose and understand the risk that you are taking. Do your own research. All information in this report is for educational purposes only and should not be the basis for any investment decisions that you make.
Sei Network OverviewKey Summary / TLDR:
- Sei is an alternative L1 blockchain designed with trading in mind, possessing unique features like parallel transaction processing, a native order matching engine and twin turbo consensus.
- With partnerships across everything from infrastructure to DeFi, Sei is working to build out an extremely sufficient ecosystem with an entire suite of applications and use cases that will be ready from day one of mainnet.
- Over $120 million is sitting in the Sei ecosystem fund, with the team and various strategic partners actively searching for a variety of promising apps to deploy on Sei in the coming months and beyond.
A Look at Sei and How it Stands Out
When taking a look back, 2020 and 2021 appear to be the years of alternative layer ones, commonly referred to as “Ethereum killers” or Alternative L1s for short. The drastic growth of daily active addresses transacting on Ethereum contributed to the equally as drastic growth of Alternative L1s like Solana, Avalanche and Fantom. As transaction costs on Ethereum climbed to over $100 or more for something as routine as a simple Uniswap transaction or NFT mint, the average user was quickly priced out. In addition to the burden of high transaction costs, the influx of new users led to an increasingly congested network that made failed transactions far too common, leading to a drastically minimized user experience.
While daily transaction count across crypto has fallen sharply from the highs of 2021, the issues around scalability are still just as relevant as ever. Common areas of research in the blockchain trilemma debate like throughput, data availability and of course, decentralization, still represent a significant amount of focus in the space, especially when considering the vast potential of crypto as an industry. While we might not have one billion users at this point in time, there’s surely no harm in building for the future.
Sei has taken steps to separate itself from the pack of Alt L1s and Layer 2 blockchains by attempting to tackle the trading side of blockchain activity first and foremost. With features like parallel transaction processing, a twin-turbo consensus mechanism and its native order matching engine, Sei is working to deliver a fast, simple and secure user experience for blockchain users of all backgrounds.
Placing a huge emphasis on trading and exchanges, Sei is marketing itself as a blockchain for traders, essentially positioning its architecture to best fit the increasingly complex world of crypto trading, whether it be off-chain or on-chain.
In this report, we will examine Sei Network and how it separates itself from other alternative layer one blockchains with its unique technical architecture, along with an in depth analysis of everything currently taking place within the Sei ecosystem as the team gears up for its highly anticipated mainnet release. We hope this report provides you with an analytical perspective on the potential of Sei and a key look at the blossoming ecosystem being built by its community.
Twin-Turbo Consensus
The Twin-Turbo consensus mechanism is a key feature of the Sei blockchain, designed to optimize block propagation and transaction processing. This consensus mechanism is characterized by two main components: Intelligent Block Propagation and Optimistic Block Processing.
Intelligent Block Propagation is a process where, once a full node receives a transaction from a user, it broadcasts that transaction to other nodes in the network. Validators verify the validity of the transaction and add it to their local mempool. Block proposers then look at the current state of their mempool and propose a block to be committed. The block proposal, which includes unique transaction identifiers, is first disseminated to other validators in the network, followed by the entire block. This process significantly decreases the overall amount of time that a validator waits to receive a block.
For the full report, click here .
The World is your Trading Oyster! Trade it!The world is your trading oyster
Any market with a ton of volume, is going to move in one of three ways.
Up, down or sideways.
Stocks, indices, Forex, commodities or crypto currencies,
They all move the same, they all act the same.
We need to remember to diversify different markets into our trading.
When some are in bad market envrionments, others will be in good trading conditions to help balance and hedge the portfolios...
Be open to the markets available and do your research to see which will comply and will be compatible with your strategies.
Sympathetic Trade: Where there's smoke, there's fire !Where one stock in an industry goes up its competitor or similar companies in other markets might also go up. This can be described as a phenomenon of "sympathetic trading" or "sympathy moves" . In the stock market, a sympathy move is when the stock price of one company moves in tandem with the stock price of another company in the same industry. This happens because market participants assume that what affects one company will likely impact others in the same sector.
For example, if a tech company reports strong earnings, other companies in the same sector may also see their stock prices rise due to the assumption that they may be experiencing similar success. This doesn't always hold true, but it's a common occurrence in the stock market.
Note that such co-movements can also occur due to shared exposure to macroeconomic events or broader market sentiment rather than industry-specific news. It's a common theme of the interconnectedness of financial markets.
In this case online used car seller Carvana stocks jumped close to 60% , a MASSIVE move on the NYSE today on good news of the second hand car market recovering reflected in their sales and forecast for the rest of the year. Carsales.com(.au) a major used car seller website in Australia and other markets might also experience a similar upturn in demand.
Carvana.com and Carsales.com, both being in the automotive e-commerce industry, have similar business models and might be subject to the same macroeconomic factors, industry trends, and customer behaviors. If Carvana.com sees a substantial increase in its stock price, it could indicate positive developments or favorable conditions within the online car sales industry as a whole.
Thus, traders might speculate that Carsales.com could also benefit from these positive developments or conditions, and this could lead to a rise in its stock price. However, it's important to remember that while this logic can sometimes hold true, it is not guaranteed. Each company's financial health, management, and specific circumstances also play a huge role in determining its stock price.
It's also worth noting that the stock markets in different countries (in this case, the US and Australia) might not react in the same way to the same news. Factors such as time zone differences, local economic conditions, and regulatory environments can influence how similar stocks perform in different countries.
Sympathy trades across different markets can sometimes give you a good early indication of industries and stocks that might be about to turn around.
Carsales in this case does look like it could be at a good support area so could be good timing for an entry if you do your due diligence and decide it might be a good trade.
Be interesting to see how it plays out.
BUILDING A CHART "BRICK BY BRICK"What is it Renko?
Renko charts were invented in Japan, just like regular candlesticks, many years ago and they are called Renga, which means "brick". They display charts symmetrically and are effective for identifying major trends and structural support and resistance levels. Renko charts are very well suited for trend trading as they are visually appealing, making it easy to screen out noise and highlight trends easily.
Renko charts show a trend in a way that bars and candlesticks charts cannot. They are able to filter out the noise and create the sameness underlying the trend. In order to understand what a Renko is, let's remember what candlesticks show on our charts? They are the fluctuations in the price of a particular currency pair over a certain period of time: price and time.
The main difference is that Renko charts show only the change in price, neither trading volumes nor time intervals are taken into account in their development. The principle of building Renko bricks is based, as already mentioned, only on price fluctuations. In order for the chart to be displayed correctly, first of all, it is necessary to set the size of one brick. For example, many traders use a simple rule: 1 brick equals 10 pips. In other words, for a new brick/block to appear on the chart, the price must change by at least 10 points.
Candlestick chart:
Renko bars:
This is the feature of the Renko chart: it is extremely smooth and clear. All blocks have the same size. At the same time, if the price has changed by only a few points, it will not be displayed on the chart.
There are two types of brick size assignment methods: traditional and ATR-based. It measures the volatility of the asset, i.e. the values will be different at different periods of the trading period and on different time intervals. If you use this method, the value of the Renko bar should be equal to the ATR value.
Main Advantages and Disadvantages
Like any other graphical display of price changes, Renko has its pros and cons.
Advantages of Renko:
• This principle of construction allows to eliminate almost all noise from the chart as mentioned above.
• Renko shows itself perfectly in work with most indicators. Let's remember the main problem of some popular indicators - they output data with some delay (information is substituted into the formula only after the candle is closed). And since Renko is not tied to time, the indicator displays more real information as a result.
• Renko indicators show themselves perfectly in intraday trading. The trader does not need to wait for the candle to close.
The Main Disadvantages of Renko are as Follows:
• The chart does not work with most volume indicators.
• A new brick is built only when the trend increases/decreases by a certain number of points (which is equal to the size of one block). That is, the chart can remain unchanged for a long time if the market is consolidating.
• Renko chart does not show consolidation and impulse moves as seen on regular charts.
• In order to be aware of the likely measurement of trend direction, it is necessary to constantly monitor the market with other charts.
Examples
We will use a simple strategy based on the moving average with a period of 20 on the 15 minute timeframe. The sell and buy signal will be pinbar. Enter the trade when the pinbar is created near the moving average. Of course you can create your own strategy. You just need to spend some time with the chart and you will know if it will work for you or not.
EURAUD
USDJPY
GBPUSD (Sometimes Renko chart gives really beautiful and clear signals.)
Conclusion
Renko charts are quite convenient and practical because they display symmetrical candles and are effective for identifying major trends, support and resistance levels by filtering out noise. They can also be used in combination with other indicators to improve trading results. Renko charts allow you to identify various reversal patterns and see price structures in the market. However, they are mainly suitable for intraday trading.
How I manage risks?We all know that trading is a game of probability, we cannot have a 100% winning rate.
=> Therefore, it will be better when we have a strict way of managing capital.
This is the way I often use when managing my capital.
I manage according to the Risk/Reward ratio. There are many theories about this method on Google, you can find and read through. Here I'm just talking about how simply I apply it.
I mainly trade futures. For each order I will use 10% of my capital. And my maximum stop loss ratio is 30% (20% for high risk orders). If applied like this, if that order loses, I only lose 3% of my total capital. If I win I usually take 3R.
For example:
- The win rate is 50% (pretty low)
- Place 10 orders
- Win 5 orders: 3R * 5 = 15R
- Lose 5 orders: 1R * 5 = 5R
=> Profit: 15R - 5R = 10R
In total, I still made a profit of 10R . 50% win rate is quite low but still win 10R.
That is the power of capital management!!
Enjoy!!
DYOR
The Trader's Odyssey: Navigating the Financial Seas 🌊💼📈
The journey of a trader is a dynamic and often challenging expedition through the world of finance. This comprehensive guide embarks on the trader's odyssey, shedding light on the trials, triumphs, and key waypoints that define the path to success. Join us as we navigate the intricate journey of a trader, enriched with real-world examples and insights to help you embark on your own trading adventure.
The Trader's Voyage: Charting the Course
The Aspiring Trader's Dream 🌟
Every trader begins with a dream—a vision of financial success and independence. This dream motivates aspiring traders to explore the markets and embark on their journey.
Learning the Ropes: Education and Preparation 📚
Successful traders invest time in understanding the financial markets and the tools they'll be using. They undertake courses, read books, and follow the guidance of experienced mentors to build a solid foundation.
Example 1: John's Journey
Navigating the Markets: Strategies and Techniques 🗺
As traders gain knowledge, they develop and fine-tune trading strategies. This phase includes identifying preferred asset classes, risk management plans, and the use of technical and fundamental analysis.
Example 2: Sarah's Expedition
Weathering the Storms: Trading Psychology 🌦
Trading psychology plays a significant role in a trader's journey. The ability to control emotions, handle losses, and maintain discipline is paramount for success.
Making Landfall: Achieving Consistency and Adaptation 🏝
Consistent profitability is the goal. Traders need to adapt to changing market conditions and continuously refine their strategies.
The Elusive Treasure: Risk and Reward 💰
The trader's journey involves assessing and managing risk. Success requires striking a balance between risk and reward, understanding that losses are part of the voyage.
The journey of a trader is a remarkable expedition filled with challenges and opportunities. Through education, strategy development, psychological resilience, and continuous adaptation, traders can chart a course towards their financial goals. Just like sailors navigating uncharted waters, traders brave the ever-changing seas of the financial markets, and their success depends on their skills, knowledge, and unwavering commitment. May your journey be filled with favorable winds and profitable horizons. 🌊💼📈
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
the counter for accumulating.the story start around November 2019, a Taiwanese bought 162.33 million share (27.52%) at RM0.3866. a private placement of 10% equal to 58.987 at RM0.2388 on August 2020 allocated to the same party. one year later around September 2021 right issue announced 1 for 1 with free warrant, RM0.22 per share done. capital injection due to company cashflow problem. 1 year later on the November 2022 the party taken action again to convert all the warrant to ordinary share, 578 million warrant at RM0.22 being converted. it took 4 year to turn the company around, now the share price below RM0.18 is a chance to accumulate. if base on chart, break up timing will take more than 6 month. any good news or quarter result will adjust the timing. I share the story, and you may analyse it true or false. tq.