Why We NEED to Lose To Be SuccessfulThere is a paradox to succeed when trading.
And that is, we need to lose to win.
We need to make sure though that our potential losses are ALWAYS less than our gains.
I want to go through some of the reasons why losses are not only inevitable but also essential in the journey of successful trading.
Reason #1. Losses are Inevitable
Financial markets are largely unpredictable due to a plethora of influencing factors such as:
Demand & supply
Geo, economical and political events
Algorithm volume trading by institutions
New influx of traders into the market.
Unpredictable micro and macro events
The unpredictable nature implies that losses are part and parcel of trading.
Not even the most seasoned traders can boast of a 100% win rate. Most successful traders end up with a 48% to 70% win rate.
So, if you’re looking for a high win rate – you need a reality check to stay grounded and humble.
Only then, you may have a chance at winning in this difficult game.
Reason #2. Losing Months Will Happen
Even when you work and follow proven and profitable strategies, you will face a time of losing streaks.
This can occur over weeks, even stretching into months.
You might lose a small chunk of your portfolio, but then you’ll need to the time to recoup and bring your portfolio back to ATH (All time highs).
Reason #3. Unfavourable market conditions
Markets are intrinsically volatile.
Not only that but, small markets tend to follow the bigger leaders.
And when the price fluctuations are erratic by nature, it carries the stocks, indices and other markets with it.
E.g. We could see the S&P 500 move in a sideways consolidation period for three months in a row.
And now matter how good the prospects are within a smaller market, they tend to follow the main indices.
So, we have to just wait for the better times and for the more conducive market conditions.
This moves on to a bigger element:
Reason #4: Economic Cycles
Broad economic cycles include:
Accumulation
Mark-up phase
Distribution
Mark down phase
Then there are periods of a boom, recession and a crash.
These will also impact market trends and lead to losses.
It’s important to learn to hedge positions (long and short) and know when to be neutral (no holdings).
You’ll need to learn how to adapt and integrate losses into your trading. That way, you’ll be more prepared and less emotional for when they come.
Let’s sum up the reasons:
Reason #1. Losses are Inevitable
Reason #2. Losing Months Will Happen
Reason #3. Unfavourable market conditions
Reason #4: Economic Cycles
Fundamental Analysis
📢 Quad witching. What is it? What to expect? How to trade it.First thing, it's actually triple-witching now. There used to be a 4th contract, but now there's only 3.
3 contracts expire on this day:
Index futures (S&P, Dow) contracts
Index options (i.e. SP:SPX ) contracts
Stock options ( NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA etc) contracts
Single stock futures contracts. They don't exist anymore. That's why it's TRIPLE witching now.
This only happens in March, June, September, and December. The third Friday.
For example, when you buy "AAPL 100c 9/15/23", the date is the expiration. Only if it's ITM and you're holding before close, you will have to decide to KEEP your contracts, ROLL them over, or SELL them. If you KEEP, you'll get 100 shares per contract. Now imagine $3.4T worth of contracts having to go through that on the same day. Volatility.
There's $3.4T worth of contracts expiring tomorrow--- the highest ever in any September expiration, and the 6th largest ever.
10 of the last 11 September witching, SPY finished red around -0.50%.
I calculated the range for SPY during the last 3 years of witching, it's around 6.5-7 points. The ATR for SPY for the last 60 days is 4.58 points.
The week after September witching tends to be a rollercoaster ride.
March 20, 2020 was a witching day (yes pandemic, but good to know)
So what should you do?
If you have no experience, do nothing.
If you're **day-trading**, take your gains quickly and don't expect a lot.
If you're adding to your swings, wait for good dips.
Expect the highest volatility around 2-4 PM.
Don't trade 0DTE. If you do, don't hold for glory. Lol.
Watch for impulsive moves causing SL raids
Watch the closely. It will be very telling since whales will be readjusting positions and possibly rolling/ reloading.
Expect volatility.
High volume on indices, major stocks, and further out option contracts (people rolling over their contracts)
Expect liquidity grabs, fake outs, etc.
If you don't trade it, enjoy the volatility.
Watch TVC:VIX (volatility index)
Don't go heavy on any positions.
Buy slow, don't chase, and ask questions if unsure.
Don't force trades. Don't FOMO buy. Don't chase. Don't get caught in the volatility.
Use support/ resistance/ supply/ demand zones. They work best on these days as they show liquidity grabs, fakeouts, etc.
Just looking out. Hope you benefitted. I'll be posting my trades in my community linked below. Welcome to come & follow.
Piles Of Doo-DooThe Biden Admin has single-handedly destroyed the Economy in record time. Core Inflation soars UP 400% in the first 12 month's. The only way that can happen is intentionally. Yet, there are no lockdowns, a "vaccine" has been released and there is no WW3. Plans backfired, now it looks like everyone is standing around trying to dig all the dog shit out of their shoes. Sorry, it's your shit and it belongs to you and nothing can save you now.
This chart does not even include soaring Gas & Food prices which actually makes Inflation much worse than it's being portrayed here.
📝 ALWAYS review your trades and improve your trading strategy.ALL your trades should get a good in-depth review. Unless, of course, you're just gambling, then the market isn't for you, and you're likely not even using TradingView -- because why would you need a chart? 🙂
If you make a red trade, review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade, but you were like this the whole time: :sweating: ... chances are you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade and it doesn't "continue", so to speak, either you knew exactly what you were doing (nice!), or you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a GREAT trade and it continues to RIP after (aka "left gains on the table"), NICE JOB.. Review it. Do it again. And again.
Keep reviewing all your trades till you have a bullet proof strategy.
There is no other way to advance as a trader.
If you don't review your trades, you will not improve.
Open your mind to learning from other traders. You may be better than them in some things, but they may be better than you in some things.
Kobe, Lebron, Ronaldo, Messi, Brady, and every athlete you can name has went to practice every day throughout his/ her career. Pros don't stop practicing. Neither should you.
In the referenced trade, I made a quick +10% in NASDAQ:QQQ calls. Although the intention was to scalp, I got lucky to not get burned. Here's how I normally review my trades:
Remember to NOT force trades. There's no point. I warned against forcing any trades yesterday in my quad/ triple witching post. Volatility is no joke. More volatility coming next week. Remember that.
Follow for more insight & share/ like this with others who can benefit. Welcome to join my community. Link below.
WHAT EXACTLY IS A TRADING EDGE?In the world of the forex market, having a trading edge can make all the difference between success and failure. A trading edge refers to a set of unique advantages or strategies that give us an increased probability of making profitable trades. It is the secret weapon that separates the winners from the losers in the highly competitive trading arena. In this post, we will explore some key elements that contribute to a trader's edge and how they can be effectively utilized.
One of the crucial components of a trading edge is the ability to identify and execute high-probability setups. These setups are specific market conditions or patterns that have historically shown a higher likelihood of resulting in profitable trades. Traders with well-defined setups can quickly assess the market and take advantage of favorable opportunities.
However, having a setup alone is not enough; we must develop a comprehensive strategy to guide our decision-making process. A trading strategy encompasses our overall approach to the market, including entry and exit rules, risk management parameters, and trade management techniques. A well-thought-out strategy provides a systematic framework to follow, reducing emotional decision-making and increasing consistency.
To maximize our trading edge, we must pay attention to both pre-market and post-market analysis. Pre-market analysis involves evaluating market conditions and news events before the opening bell. This allows us to anticipate potential price movements and adjust our strategy accordingly. Post-market analysis helps review trades, identify strengths and weaknesses, and make adjustments for future trades.
Keeping a trading journal is another essential tool for enhancing our trading edge. A journal serves as a record of all trades, including entry and exit points, reasons for entering the trade, and lessons learned. By regularly reviewing the journal, we can identify patterns in the decision-making process and refine our strategy accordingly.
The market itself plays a significant role in our trading edge. Understanding the overall market sentiment, trends, and key levels of support and resistance can provide valuable insights for making informed trading decisions. Traders who stay informed about market dynamics are better equipped to adapt their strategies to changing conditions.
The time of day and time frame chosen for trading can also contribute to our trading edge as well. Different trading strategies may work better during specific times of the day (sessions) or on particular time frames. Some traders prefer short-term intraday trades, while others focus on longer-term swing trades. Identifying the most suitable time frames and trading hours can significantly increase our chances of success.
News events are another factor that can impact a trader's edge. Economic releases, corporate earnings announcements (for stock traders), and geopolitical developments can cause significant market volatility. Traders who stay updated on news events and understand their potential impact on the market can adjust their strategies accordingly or even capitalize on these events.
Effective money management and risk management are vital aspects of maintaining a trading edge. Money management involves determining the appropriate position sizing and risk per trade, ensuring that losses are controlled and profits are maximized. Risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders and trailing stops, help protect against excessive losses and preserve capital. Our first job is not to make a profit but to preserve our capital.
Establishing a routine and following specific rituals can also contribute to our trading edge. A routine helps to maintain discipline and consistency in trading. Routines, such as reviewing charts, analyzing news events, and mentally preparing before each trading session, can help us get into the right mindset for making sound decisions. What do you do in the morning after waking up? Go straight to the chart? Meditate for 15 minutes? What are you going to do if a family incident occurs or if the power goes out?
Creating a watchlist and trade plan is the final piece of the puzzle for enhancing our edge in the markets. A watchlist consists of potential trade opportunities that meet our setup criteria. By having a pre-defined list of stocks or forex pairs to focus on, we can avoid being overwhelmed by numerous options. A trade plan outlines the specific steps to be taken for each trade, including entry and exit points, risk management parameters, and profit targets.
In conclusion, a trading edge is a combination of various elements that contribute to our success in the financial markets. By developing a set of high-probability setups, implementing a well-defined strategy, staying informed about market dynamics and news events, and effectively managing money and risks, we can gain a significant advantage in the markets. Maintaining a routine, following rituals, and having a watchlist—all of these become part of the trade plan that gives us an edge in the markets. And if we apply discipline and consistency to it, we have a much higher chance of being successful in trading.
Traders, if you liked this educational post, give it a boost and write in the comments.
How To Improve Your Win RateHey guys!
Today, we're discussing 3 concrete strategies that you can use to improve your win rate with your trading strategy. This includes:
1.) How to improve your underlying decision making (trade with the trend, take advantage of levels, and understand the fundamentals driving supply and demand).
2.) How to adjust your exit strategy to improve your win rate, trading psychology, and (potentially) expected value.
3.) How to reframe the markets using probabilities and options. Leveraging the law of large numbers can allow you to hit what you're aiming for, including a high win rate with many different option structures.
Questions? Hit us up in the comments.
Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
EUR/USD Scalp IdeaPay close attention!
This is the Last 7 Days (Trading Days ofc) !
I drew the London Session's Low , You see Every time we Hunted the London Low in NY Session and Reclaimed it, So We had a Scalp Chance to Long at London Low and Take Profit after 24 hours.
the only day that we didn't reclaim London Low, it was Thursday and the price was effected by the news.
Thursday's News:
🕯USD: Core PPI m/m
🕯USD: Core Retail Sales m/m
🕯USD: PPI m/m
🕯USD: Retail Sales m/m
🕯USD: Unemployment Claims
Do you Think we Should keep using this Pattern for the next couple days?
How we can improve our Stop and TP?
The Relative Strength Index Explained [RSI]Hello traders and investors! If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜. Your support matters!
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a powerful tool used in technical analysis to gauge the momentum and potential overbought or oversold conditions of an asset. Here's a breakdown of how it works:
Time Period and Calculation:
By default, the RSI measures the price changes of an asset over a set period, which is usually 14 periods.
These periods can represent days on daily charts, hours on hourly charts, or any other timeframe you choose. The formula then calculates two averages: the average gain the price has had over those periods and the average loss it has sustained.
Momentum Indicator:
RSI is categorized as a momentum indicator. It essentially measures how quickly the price or data is changing. When the RSI indicates increasing momentum and the price is rising, it signals active buying in the market. Conversely, if momentum is increasing to the downside, it suggests that selling pressure is intensifying.
Momentum Explained:
Momentum in trading is like measuring how fast a car is speeding up or slowing down. In the case of RSI, it's all about understanding if a cryptocurrency or stock is picking up speed in its price changes or slowing down.
RSI as a Trend Strength Indicator:
Think of RSI as a meter that shows you how strong the current trend is in the world of trading. It's like checking the engine power of a car to see how fast it can go.
Shifting Frame Analogy:
Imagine RSI as a shifting picture frame. This frame covers a certain number of periods, say 14 days, just like a moving window in time. When a day with a significant loss falls out of this frame, and days with substantial gains come into view, it's as if the frame is shifting to reveal a brighter picture. This shift in the frame is reflected in the RSI. If the new days are bringing in more gains than losses, the RSI goes from being low (indicating a weak trend) to high (indicating a strong trend).
RSI and Momentum:
RSI acts like a swinging pendulum, moving back and forth between 0 and 100. It tells you the current speed of price changes in the market.
When RSI is going up, think of it like a rocket taking off – it indicates bullish momentum, meaning prices are likely rising.
Conversely, when RSI is going down, it's like a balloon deflating – this suggests bearish momentum, indicating prices are likely falling.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions:
RSI helps you spot extreme conditions in the market.
If RSI goes above 70, it's like a warning sign that the price might have gone up too fast, and the asset could be overbought. It's a bit like when a stock is in high demand, and everyone's rushing to buy it.
On the flip side, if RSI drops below 30, it's a signal that the price may have fallen too quickly, and the asset could be oversold. It's a bit like when a stock is out of favor, and everyone's selling it.
So, when you see RSI crossing these thresholds, it's like a traffic light for traders. Above 70 is like a red light (be cautious, price may reverse), and below 30 is like a green light (consider buying, price may bounce back). These are handy rules of thumb for making trading decisions!
Price Reversals in Overbought/Oversold Territory:
When a stock or cryptocurrency's price is in the overbought or oversold territory (RSI above 70 or below 30), it's like a warning sign that a reversal might happen.
However, it's important to remember that these levels don't guarantee an immediate reversal. Just because RSI is high doesn't mean you should rush to sell, and vice versa. Prices can remain in these extreme zones for a while before reversing.
RSI as a Tool, Not a Sole Decision Maker:
RSI is a tool in your trading toolbox, not a crystal ball. It's one piece of the puzzle. It's not accurate to say, "RSI < 30 equals an automatic buy signal, and RSI > 70 equals an automatic sell signal." Trading involves more factors and judgment than that.
Consider Multiple Timeframes:
Looking at different timeframes is like zooming in and out on a map. It provides a more complete picture of what's happening. For example, if the daily RSI is showing overbought conditions, but the weekly RSI is still in a healthy range, it suggests a different perspective. The longer-term trend may still be intact.
Oscillating Indicator:
RSI oscillates between 0 and 100, providing traders with a visual representation of an asset's strength or weakness. The scale helps identify potential overbought or oversold market conditions. An RSI score of 30 or lower suggests that the asset is likely nearing its bottom and is considered oversold. Conversely, an RSI measurement above 70 indicates that the asset price is likely nearing its peak and is considered overbought for that period.
Customization:
While the default setting for RSI is 14 periods, traders can adjust this parameter to suit their trading strategies. Shortening the period, such as using a 7-day RSI, makes the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements.
In contrast, using a longer period like 21 days reduces sensitivity. Additionally, some traders adapt the overbought and oversold levels, using 20 and 80 instead of the default 30 and 70, to fine-tune the indicator for specific trading setups and reduce false signals.
Divergences:
Divergences occur when the price of an asset and its RSI are moving in opposite directions. It's like having two friends walking together but going in different directions.
Regular Divergences:
Imagine this like a traffic signal turning red when everyone's used to it being green.
Regular divergences signal a potential trend reversal. For example, if the price is going up (bullish), but RSI is going down (bearish), it could indicate that the bullish trend is losing steam, and a reversal might be on the horizon.
Hidden Divergences:
Hidden divergences are like a green light at a junction where everyone expects red.
They signal a potential trend continuation. For instance, if the price is going down (bearish), but RSI is going up (bullish), it could mean that the bearish trend might continue but with less intensity.
Learn more about divergence:
Practical Use and Timeframes:
Divergences are like big road signs on a highway. They're often easier to spot on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, where the broader trend becomes more apparent. When you see a divergence, it's like getting a heads-up that something interesting might happen in the market, but it's important to combine this signal with other analysis and indicators to make informed trading decisions.
ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here..
Remember:
Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible.
Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade.
SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in.
Also, don't short it. You might get roasted.
SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine.
Follow for more tips & like this post. Your support is appreciated.
Enhance your Trading Expertise into the Future – 5 Tech breakthrIn today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape.
You really need to stay ahead or get left behind.
It’s our passion to help you deepen your knowledge of the market trends and technologies that are shaping the future.
And you know what, there are some very important trends and sectors you’ll need to adapt to your trading.
Let’s explore some of the new paradigms that are transforming the trading ecosystem.
New ETFs
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have surged in popularity lately.
This is because of their flexibility, accessibility, and potential for diversification.
You’re going to hear a lot more from companies like BlackRock’s iShares and Vanguard leading the way.
Recently, thematic ETFs have been gaining traction.
These ETFs focus on niche areas like environmental, social, and governance (ESG), technology, and health.
For example, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), managed by ARK Invest.
This targets companies that are expected to benefit from disruptive innovation across different sectors.
New AI Tech
Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing financial trading by providing traders with automated, high-speed decisions based on complex algorithms.
You need to adapt AI into your life, before it goes past your head.
AI-powered trading software’s is another thing I am looking at and trying to adapt into MATI.
With it you’ll be able to analyze large volumes of data at lightning speed.
This will allow you to make more informed decisions, run your trading journal, analyse data and even pinpoint which markets work best with your strategy.
We are still in the infant stage of deep and machine learning with trading, so learn and grow with it.
Electric Vehicles
The electric vehicle (EV) industry is really taking over.
I’m sure you’re seeing more Teslas on the road than ever before.
I’m sure you’re seeing electric vehicle stations to charge cars.
Even by the ports and harbours, you’ll see electric charging stations.
With companies such as Tesla and NIO leading the charge.
As the demand for clean energy solutions grows,
It’s not just about the car manufacturers.
But also the companies that provide these charging stations like (ChargePoint, Blink Charging) and battery technology (Panasonic, LG Chem).
Space Tourism
Space tourism is no longer a figment of science fiction. Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are making commercial space travel a reality.
Just recently in June 2023, Virgin Galactic had their first space tourism trial experience.
Before you know it, maybe we too will be looking at our beautiful blueberry of a planet from space.
Metaverse
The Metaverse is where you can combine a fully immersed world with VR ora shared digital experience with virtually augmented physical reality.
Companies like Facebook (now Meta Platforms), Apple and Roblox are investing heavily in this space.
This is just a scratch of what is coming out, and what I’ll be applying to trading.
Here are another 20 breakthrough technologies to watch out for.
Quantum Computing
CRISPR and Gene Editing
Autonomous Vehicles
Advanced Robotics
Machine Learning (ML)
Nanotechnology
Li-Fi (Light Fidelity)
Synthetic Biology
Hyperloop Technology
Smart Cities
Hydrogen Energy
Lab-Grown Meat
3D Bioprinting
Drone Delivery
Personal A
Remember, knowledge is not just power – in the world of trading, it’s profit.
Relationship between CPI and Oil price A rise in oil prices may cause the consumer price index (CIP) and Producer Price Index (PPI) higher.
Today US CPI climbed to 3.7% from 3.2% as Oil price continues to raise high since June 2023. Rising oil prices increase the cost of transporting goods and services, as a result the inflation raises high.
WTI CRUDE 88.73
BRENT CRUDE 92.09
MURBAN CRUDE 94.38
Producer Price index (PPI)
Sep 14, 2023 (Aug) 0.4 %( expect) 0.3 %( Previous)
We can expect coming PPI to rise higher than expected (0.4%) as there is a stronger correlation between oil prices and producer prices more than the correlation between the oil price and CPI as the (PPI) measures the average selling price from domestic producers and It can be directly linked to inputs.
CHECKLIST AS PART OF THE TRADING PLANHello, friends! We all know that it is important to have a trading plan and a profitable strategy, and, of course, to follow them. Now, the issue of discipline and following your own trading rules is where most of the problems start. However, there is one simple tool, literally a piece of paper, that can help you significantly improve your discipline in trading and, as a result, your key performance indicators and profits.
With that simple tool being the checklist. In this article we will talk about why it is important, why it is important for a trader and how to properly compile and apply it.
Why do traders plan their trades?
Great traders and world-famous investors plan how, when and why they are investing. They realize that to achieve their ultimate goal, they need a map outlining the route of their trading plan that will help guide them to make the right decisions at the right time.
A trading plan will provide you with structure and help you develop discipline in your trading actions. It will help you track your trading process, assign responsibility and measure your success. It will provide you with a framework to clearly visualize your current situation at any given time, and will help you identify your goals, outline your strategy, and determine your risks and returns.
Whether you are an experienced trader or just a beginner, a well thought out trading plan is sort of the vehicle you need to get to your destination. Not only is it important to have your trading plan, but it is equally important to stick to it. Some of us easily stick to it, while others are in a constant struggle with their concept and the reality of carefully following the rules, they have defined in their strict trading plan.
Do you really have a trading plan that you would follow by properly executing your market entries and exits? I'm a big advocate that we should all have a clear system to support our decision making that will help us remain objective and unbiased about when to buy and sell. However, should any good system that you should follow be so unambiguous? Should you trust it or doubt it?
Your discipline and commitment to your trading plan can be measured, reviewed and improved. You can incorporate key performance indicators into your trading strategy and determine how closely you follow your rules and trading plan. The number of mistakes you make based on aspects such as noise, emotion or oversights can be counted and questioned - as a result, you can improve your trading plan. Identify your mistakes by comparing when your system gives you a buy or sell signal, when and why you actually executed it. If most of your trades are not executed according to your system or rules, you may be managing your positions intuitively rather than following the rules. This approach to trading lacks consistency and will negatively impact your returns in the long run.
At the same time, there are cases where trading based on emotion will minimize losses and lock in profits, but only a narrow range of professional traders have intuitively mastered this ability on a consistent basis. In the end, for the remaining traders, emotion-based trading does not work because it cannot be replicated, and it only leads to insolvency and frustration. What may work today will not work tomorrow and always. In addition, this kind of trading increases stress and creates bad habits for repeated indecision.
If your trading plan is solid most of the time, then it is worth sticking to it. Thus, it is important to make an effort to check the reliability and stability of your trading plan before you start trading or increase your risks. Traders often abandon their plans when they do not have enough personal experience to follow the plans and thus naturally lack confidence.
What would make it easier to follow your plan?
So how do you follow your plan? One of the things that gets in our way is, oddly enough, our brain. We think and guess too much. From this we can assume that if we reduce the activity of our wandering mind and leave only logic, efficiency will increase. A good way to accomplish this is to make and print out a checklist for entering and exiting trades.
What is a checklist? A checklist contains a number of necessary items for any work. In our case for trading. The checklist is used to check if all the conditions are in line with your market entry strategy. You tick each of the conditions, if at least one of them is not fulfilled, do not enter the market.
Everything is very simple. Suppose your strategy is based on two indicators combined with support/resistance levels, you trade intraday, one of these indicators is a trend indicator and the other is an oscillator. Then your checklist could look like this:
1) Now American / London session? - Yes/No
2) Is there an entry signal on the X indicator? - Yes/No
3) Is the Y indicator in agreement with the signal of the X indicator? - Yes/No
4) Does the signal have a level support? - Yes / No
4) Isn't there another level in the way of the proposed trade, which will prevent it from reaching the target? - Yes / No
5) Is there no important news coming out in the next half an hour? - Yes / No
6) Am I feeling well right now (i.e. I am not sick, depressed, tired)? - Yes / No
You run through this list and mark the items with a pencil. If the answer to all questions is YES then enter the trade. If there is at least one NO do not enter.
Everything is so simple and you do not need to think. By thinking I mean the wandering mind mode, which leads to unnecessary trades, early entries/exits, etc. The checklist removes these mental "what ifs", "I guess", "it seems", etc. All items on the checklist match - enter. If at least one item doesn't match - don't enter.
How to Make a Checklist for Your Strategy
How to make a checklist? Very simple. Take the rules of your strategy and reduce them to a list of items so that against each item you can put a check mark, if the conditions on the chart correspond to it, or answer one-word Yes / No. I also advise you to include a point about your current moral state, because it is not worth trading when you are tired, sick, depressed, etc.
Conclusion
A checklist is essentially a checklist of items from your trading strategy and trading plan. Its purpose is to reduce the influence of a "wandering mind" on your trading. Also, the checklist helps you not to forget about anything. Every time, before opening a trade, run through each point on your list: if even one item does not correspond to the current situation - do not enter the market. And may the profit be with you!
5 Tips For Selling Options ProfitablyHey guys! In this post, we'll detail 5 key tips to keep in mind while selling options that can massively improve trading results over the long term. Let's jump in.
Selling options has become a more popular strategy lately, due to the fact that traders can control, to some degree, their win rates and R:R setups. If you've followed us for any length of time, you know we're big fans of selling puts.
This is because there are only a few things that most traders and investors care about when they get involved in the markets:
- Returns
- Volatility
- Difficulty
- Repeatability
Selling puts is a great blend of all four.
However, shorting put options to outperform the market is simple, but it's not easy.
Here are 5 key tips to improve your option selling skills:
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1.) Make sure the underlying stocks are high quality. ✅
Selling put options is no different than building a portfolio of stocks.
There's a chance one could be assigned, and it's key that you're ok sitting in a position for a while as it chops around.
Let the edge work.
2.) Avoid selling puts when the VIX is low. 💥
Low 'fear' in the market = cheap insurance.
Low premiums = bad things happening when stuff goes wrong.
3.) Look for stocks that have sold off. 📉
Oversold stocks (that are high quality) are perfect candidates for selling puts.
Unless they are in a brutal downtrend, the recent selloff means there's more fear, which means higher premiums.
It also means a better entry price.
4.) Set a minimum return requirement. 💸
If the puts you're selling don't yield more than the S&P 500 does annually, then why bother?
Make sure that the annualized yield of the puts you're selling total more than 7-8%, and ideally more than 12%.
Compounding is the goal.
5.) Don't use leverage. ❌
Using leverage is a quick way to the poor house if something goes wrong.
It's much better to build a portfolio of positions in cash where no position takes up more than ~3% of exposure.
It can be "expensive" to start, but it's worth it.
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There you have it - 5 key tips for selling options. We hope you enjoyed!
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The Keys to Success Every Forex Trader Should Master 🕵️♂️📊💡
In the fast-paced world of forex trading, understanding price action is akin to possessing a treasure map. Price action analysis is the art of deciphering market movements based on price movements alone, without relying on indicators or oscillators. In this comprehensive article, we'll reveal the essential price action secrets that every forex trader should know. We'll explore real-world examples and equip you with the knowledge needed to navigate this thrilling terrain.
The Secrets of Price Action
1. Candlestick Patterns: Candlestick patterns are powerful tools in price action analysis. They reveal market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
2. Support and Resistance: Identifying key support and resistance levels on a price chart can provide insights into potential price reversals or breakouts.
3. Trendlines: Drawing trendlines allows traders to visualize price trends and anticipate potential entry and exit points.
Real-World Examples
Example 1: EUR/USD - Bullish Reversal:
Example 2: GBP/JPY - Breakout:
Unlocking the secrets of price action analysis is the key to success for every forex trader. By mastering candlestick patterns, understanding support and resistance levels, and utilizing trendlines, you can decipher market movements and make informed trading decisions. Armed with these price action secrets, you're better equipped to navigate the ever-changing landscape of forex trading and seize profitable opportunities. 🕵️♂️📊💡
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
IMPORTANT - 14 Risk and Money Management RulesOver the past 20+ years, I've only mentioned a few money management rules.
But then I thought about it, and realised there are so many more I use when I trade.
So with this TradingView platform, I’m going to share my 14 most essential risk management rules I’ve ever come across.
RULE #1: The 2% Rule – Limit Your Risk
You might have seen this risk rule from me before, but there are new TradingView members everyday.
Here’s how it works…
Never risk more than 2% of your total trading capital on a single trade.
No matter how good the trade looks, this rule will help you safeguard your portfolio from the impact of a single trade's outcome.
The reason is, you will enter a losing streak.
You will most likely take from five to seven losing trading in a row.
But with the 2% rule, you’ll only be down 10% to 14% of your portfolio compared to if you risked 5% to 10% per trade.
RULE #2: The Probability Rule – Assess Trades
When you buy or sell trades, there are three types that can line up according to your trading strategy.
I like to categorise these trades as.
High, medium, or low probability.
For high, medium, and low probability trades, risk 2%, 1.5%, and 1% of your portfolio respectively.
If my trading criteria matches all the right elements to buy or sell – this is considered a high probability trade.
That’s where I will risk 2% of my portfolio per trade.
If my trading criteria has one or two elements that are showing conflicting signals – this will be considered a medium probability trade.
In this case, I’ll only risk 1.5% of my portfolio.
Other cases, there’ll be a time where the system will line up but the market environment is in a choppy and volatile range.
This is where the trade will be a low probability trade. And so, I’ll only risk 1% of my portfolio per trade.
Identify the probabilities and you’ll be able to adjust your risk accordingly.
RULE #3: 20% Drawdown Rule – Pause After Losses
There could be a time, where your portfolio is in the slums.
This is where you could be down 14% to 20% of your portfolio.
What then?
Well you need to protect your capital.
I have a simple rule where, once my portfolio is down 20% of my portfolio – I will pause my trading.
During a drawdown, I’ll then switch to paper trading until conditions improve.
If the market resumes in favourable territory and I feel more confident that the system will work better – I’ll then resume trading with 1% risk.
RULE #4: Never Risk Unaffordable Money
This one is a given, and one I often preach.
With trading you should NEVER risk any money you can’t afford.
If you’re using your only savings from retirement or you have any money that you’ll be emotionally attached to - Avoid trading all together.
This is not only dangerous for your financial situation but it will also lead to a rollercoaster of emotions trading during both winning and losing streaks.
RULE #5: The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Time-Based Limits
If a trade doesn't meet its profit target (or hits the stop loss) within a specific timeframe, close it.
I have a 7 week (35 business days) rule.
It doesn’t matter when, what level or if the trade is in the money or out the money.
You want to close the trade, after a certain period of time has elapsed, for three reasons.
1. You’re a short-term trader and don’t want to turn it into a long term investment
2. There are costs you are paying daily which is leading you to incurring a higher loss or less profits.
3. You don’t want to feel married to any specific trade.
Either you’ll bank a lower loss than you planned. Or you will bank a lower profit than planned.
This prevents capital from being tied up in stagnant trades.
RULE #6: The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Protect Profits
This rule, will help you secure your profits when a trade is moving in your favour.
Here’s how it works.
Once a trade hits a 1:1 risk-reward ratio (and has moved in my favour).
It gives the opportunity to move the stop loss up to just above break even.
This way you’ll will bank a minimum gain, should the trade turn against you.
Also, it will increase your win rate and emotionally you’ll feel it’s much easier to hold a trade with nothing to lose.
RULE #7: Half Off Rule – Secure Gains
Sometimes, you don’t want to move your stop loss.
Instead you want to lock in profits, while the market is moving in your favour.
So the rule is simple.
When the trade reaches the risk to reward of 1:1, this might be the best time to close half your position.
This will lock in some profits while leaving room for further gains.
RULE #8: The 5% Margin Rule – Control Leverage
This rule is more applicable to those who have a MUCH larger account of R25,000 and up.
Remember, with trading you’re buying and selling on margin.
If the gearing is 10 times this means if I hold 1% of my account, I am risking 10% of my portfolio if the trade heads to zero.
So, the trick is to never risk more than 5% of your account on a single trade.
This approach reduces exposure to risk and aids risk tracking in volatile markets.
RULE #9: The Intraday Stop Rule – Daily Loss Limit
Not all traders like to hold overnight.
You get intraday traders who buy and sell trades within the day.
If you are one of them, then this rule is for you.
Make sure you set a daily loss limit or a maximum number of losses.
For example, if you’re down 3 to 4 trades in the day – that might be your que to stop trading for the day. There are a few reasons for this including:
• The market environment is not conducive to continue.
• You need to protect your capital.
• Your emotions might run out of control having taken too many losses in a day.
• This could result in impulsive and revenge trading to try make up for your losers.
RULE #10: Forex NEWS Rule – Avoid High-Impact News Events
I mentioned this in the last Trading Tips Q&A, but I’ll say it again.
If you’re a Forex trader and you want to avoid volatile times when certain news events come out.
You can stay out or avoid trading during high-impact news events.
These events include CPI, NFP, PPI, and FOMC releases.
Such events can increase trading risks and lead to unpredictable market movements. (Especially in the Forex market!).
RULE #11: The Risk-Reward Rule – Favor Positive Ratios
Whenever I take a trade, I always want my gains to be bigger than my losses.
To do this I set my risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
This means, I am only willing to risk one in order to bank two times more.
Do this enough times and you’ll almost guarantee your potential gains will outweigh your potential losses in the medium term.
And having a risk to reward of at least 1:2 means you’ll factor in the costs, brokerage and other fees with your trade.
RULE #12: The 20% Golden Rule – Diversify and Limit Exposure
You always need to have capital within your portfolio.
Not only to trade, but to protect the current trades that you’re holding at any one time.
So this rule is golden.
Here’s how it works. I never expose more than 20% of my total investment portfolio to trading.
This means, I’ll always be holding at least 80% of my portfolio.
Remember, with margin (leverage) trading, it magnifies gains and losses.
Having only 20% of your total investment portfolio will help you to always have more money in your portfolio to account for more trades, losses, costs and for you to diversify and manage your risk better.
RULE #13: The Hedgehog Rule – Balance Long and Short Positions
I love this rule.
In trading you can buy (go long) when the market moves up.
Or you can sell (go short) when the market moves down.
But sometimes, you might feel you’re over exposed to the long side even though the market is moving up.
So instead you can hedge your positions by balancing longs and shorts.
If the market turns down, then at least you’ll have some shorts in the mix to make up for the losses with your longs that are going against you.
I always try to avoid overcommitting to a single direction.
This way I am able to protect my portfolio from sudden market reversals.
RULE #14: Multi-Account Rule – Separate Markets
I find markets all move differently and yield results at different rates.
So what I like to do is open different trading account for different markets (e.g., Forex and stocks).
I like to track and trade Forex for one account and stocks for another.
You’ll find if you trade too many different markets in one account, it will most likely skew the portfolio and your track record.
This is because of the way they all move sporadically from each other.
So, diversify your portfolios across different asset classes and markets to manage your risk.
Final words.
I trust this 14 Risk management Rules Lesson will help guide you to your trading goals.
If there’s one thing you should do is print, or save this guide and keep them close for reference.
These rules will undoubtedly prove valuable in your trading endeavors.
Why you might STRUGGLE Trading - 9 REASONSTrading is the most simple and hardest career you can have.
There are simple tasks to take but difficult to mentally handle.
Success requires discipline, strategy, and often, a good amount of experience.
However, there are many reasons why people may struggle to achieve profitability in their trading endeavours.
Here are some common pitfalls that might be the reasons why you are struggling as a trader. can
Lack of a Defined System
A trading system involves a set of rules that dictate entry, exit, and money management criteria for your trades.
If you’re trading without a proven and winning system, you’re basically gambling.
You really need to find what works for you both mentally and financially.
Either you can experiment with different trading strategies.
Or you can adopt proven systems that you believe with what will work for you.
It’s crucial to find a strategy that suits your risk tolerance, investment goals, and lifestyle.
Inability to Handle Losses
Everyone experiences losses in trading.
You’ll take losing trades on a daily, weekly and monthly basis…
If you cannot handle losses, you may find yourself holding onto losing positions for too long.
You might feel you’re stuck in a rut.
You might feel like a loser yourself.
So, this needs to stop.
Start treating trading as a business.
Accept that losses as the costs of trading.
Don’t dwell on losses. Accept them, embrace them and learn from them.
Get Rich Quick Mentality
Many people get the excitement that trading Is something that will bring bread in the short term.
This cannot be farther from the truth.
You need to get out of this “get rich quick” mentality.
Establish medium to long term goals and work at it.
Make sure, your expectations are realistic and be patient.
Set achievable goals and concentrate on slow, steady progress rather than risky, high-return trades.
Lack of Experience
Like any other skill, trading requires experience to master.
If you’re new to trading, you may lack the knowledge needed to navigate the market effectively.
To gain experience, start small and learn as you go.
Maybe even start off with a demo and paper account.
This way you’ll be able to practice without risking real money.
Read books, take courses, watch from experienced traders. Learn from their mistakes, so you can avoid paying high school fees.
You ignore the Big Market Trends
Before you trade, do yourself a favour.
Get to know the market environment.
If the price is heading up, look for longs (buys).
If the price is heading down, look for shorts (sells).
Trends can give important insights into potential future market movements.
You’ll feel more in-tune with the markets when you know their overall directions.
Letting Emotions Rule
Fear, greed and ego are the enemies of profitable trading.
If you feel any of the three dangerous traits, you’ll make decisions based on emotions.
This will give you a gambling mentality of thrill, despair and denial.
Cut out the emotions and stick to a more mechanical approach.
Be like the market not like a human.
Fail to Diversify
You need to know how to mitigate risks.
One market probably won’t make the cut.
If it moves sideways for months on end, you’ll miss out on powerful opportunities elsewhere.
So, diversify with different stocks, indices, commodities, Forex and cryptos.
Also, don’t be over exposed too long with buys or too short with sells.
Find the balance, because markets can change direction very quickly.
Not Keeping a Trading Journal
You need to get yourself a log book.
A trading journal will help you to keep track of your strategies, successes, and failures.
It will also guide you with the gameplan you need with a better chance of succeeding.
Know what you can gain, lose and how long you can go through potential drawdowns (downturns).
The past data might not indicate future results, but it can give you a likelihood of what is to come for your trading, markets and your portfolio.
Lack of Discipline and integration
Discipline is sticking it out.
Doing what you need to follow your trading plan.
No matter how good or bad the market is, when the trade lines up you need to JUST TAKE THE TRADE.
And no matter how your feeling on the day, you need to do what it takes to succeed.
Integration is similar but it’s actually adapting it whole heartedly into your life.
This is where you don’t’ think twice.
This is where you wake up and trade like brushing your teeth.
If you suck at trading, you need to pinpoint why. Work on it, improve and evolve.
Let’s sum the reasons why you might SUCK at trading up one more time….
Lack of a Defined System
Inability to Handle Losses
Get Rich Quick Mentality
Lack of Experience
You ignore the Big Market Trends
Letting Emotions Rule
Fail to Diversify
Not Keeping a Trading Journal
Lack of Discipline and integration
Essential Trading Terms for Crypto TradersGreetings everyone!
Here are ten crucial terms every crypto trader should know:
ATH - The highest price ever recorded. It represents an asset's peak value and often signals potential profit for early investors.
ATL - The lowest price ever recorded. Breaking ATL can trigger further price declines, leading to potential buying opportunities or increased risks.
ROI - Measuring investment performance. ROI helps assess the returns of an investment relative to its initial cost, aiding in comparing different investment options.
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) - Spreading fear and misinformation to gain an advantage. Recognizing FUD is essential for avoiding emotional trading decisions and whales trap.
KYC - Verification of customer identity for regulatory compliance. KYC ensures that trading platforms adhere to regulations and prevent money laundering.
AML - Regulations to prevent money laundering. AML measures make it harder for criminals to disguise illegally obtained funds as legitimate income.
DD - Conducting due diligence before making investment decisions. DD involves thorough research and analysis to assess potential risks and rewards.
DYOR - Doing your own research and verifying information. DYOR is a fundamental principle for successful trading, emphasizing the importance of independent research.
FOMO - The panic-driven urge to buy or sell an asset. FOMO can lead to impulsive trades and is often seen during bull markets later stages.
HODL - Holding onto an investment for the long term. HODLers believe in the potential for long-term gains and resist short-term price fluctuations.
Understanding these terms can help you navigate the cryptocurrency communities more confidentl. So, remember to DYOR, stay vigilant about FUD, and consider your HODL strategy while keeping an eye on ROI, ATH, and ATL 💜💜
UNDERSTANDING DIVERGENCEWhat is divergence?
Divergence in trading is one of the key tools used by us traders to analyze the market and make decisions about entering or exiting trades. It is based on observing differences between two different indicators such as price and oscillator. The advantage of using divergence in trading is that it allows us to identify possible market reversals in advance and take measures to protect positions. It can also be used to confirm other signals such as support and resistance levels or trend lines.
However, it should be noted that divergence is not always a sufficient signal to enter or exit a trade. It should be confirmed by other tools and market analysis. It is also important to remember that divergence can be false and signal of a temporary deviation from the main market movement. We’ll explain it later below.
How can we identify a divergence?
We will use a bearish divergence as shown above as an example. A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a new high, but the oscillator does not confirm this movement and makes a higher high. This indicates that the strength of buyers is weakening and a bearish trend is possible.
We can use various oscillators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) or stochastic oscillator to identify bearish divergence. We have to observe the price movement and the oscillator values. If the price forms a new high but the oscillator forms a lower high, this could be a bearish divergence signal.
However, for the divergence to work it must be at significant levels as mentioned earlier. We use market analysis techniques such as support and resistance, trend lines or trading volume if you trade stocks. This will help us to make sure the signal is reliable and make an informed trading decision.
Types of divergences
There are usually 2 types of divergence that can be used by traders to analyze the market: Trend Reversal Divergence and Trend Continuation Divergence .
1. Trend Reversal Divergence. This is the most common type of divergence that occurs when the price of an asset forms a new high or low and the oscillator does not confirm this movement and forms a lower high or higher low. That is, the price moves in one direction, but for example RSI in another direction as if hinting that this price movement does not have the strength that it had before.
2. Trend Continuation Divergence. This type of divergence occurs during a correction in a major trend. It can indicate that the primary trend may continue after the pullback is complete. If we have a market in moving against the main trend, this pullback should also have the strength/momentum that it should end. For example, if the price makes LL then HL, and RSI makes LL then another LL, it is a sign that the bearish movement (pullback) has no strength to move lower.
There are several forms of divergence that can indicate different trend strength. Let's look at bearish divergence as an example:
1. Strong Divergence. In this case, the price forms a new high and the oscillator forms a much lower high. This is considered the most reliable bearish divergence signal and can indicate strong buyer weakness and the possible onset of a bearish trend.
2. Medium Divergence. Here the price barely makes a new high or turns into a double top and the oscillator on another hand makes a lower high. There is no super strong divergence in this case, it may indicate a less strong and weakening of the buyers and a possible trend shift.
3. Weak Divergence. In this case, the asset price forms a new high and the oscillator also forms a lower high, but the difference between the two is minimal. This can be a less reliable signal of a bearish divergence and in many cases, it can be a signal of trend strength. That is, we can expect a possible small pullback. Below you can see that UKOIL has made new highs but the RSI barely made lower high which confirms the strength of the trend.
Example of hidden divergence
In conclusion, divergence in trading is a powerful tool for analyzing the market. It allows traders to detect possible market reversals and make appropriate trading decisions. it is important to note that divergence can be a warning signal of a possible trend change, but it does not guarantee it. We should use additional tools and analysis methods to confirm the signal and make an informed trading decision.
The Raging Bull on a Falling Roller coaster - JSE in the nutshelAbout sums up the JSE right now...
📉📈 The JSE ALSI 40: Where Sideways Meets Rollercoaster! 🎢🐂🐻
Hey there, fellow traders and market enthusiasts! 📊💰
Have you been following the JSE ALSI 40's wild dance since December 2022?
It's like watching a cat chasing its tail, but with more financial suspense! 😅🐱
Picture this: The ALSI 40 chart looks like a DJ's soundwave, with highs and lows that leave us all scratching our heads. 🤨📈📉
It's as if the market decided to throw a never-ending party, but with a catch – every time it cranks up the music and heads for the stars, it suddenly crashes back down like it remembered it had a curfew! 🎶💥
And guess what? Just when you think the party's over and everyone's heading for the exits, the market pulls a 180 and starts the bull run again! 🐂🚀
But here's the kicker – when you finally give in to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and join the party, that's when the bearish bear shows up, and it's not in the mood for hugs! 🐻📉
So, what's a trader to do in this wild ride? 🤔
Here's the deal:
💰 Money Management is Key:
It's time to be the disciplined partygoer. Risk management should be your DJ, controlling your moves on the dance floor. Allocate a smaller portion of your portfolio to each trade to weather those unexpected downturns.
🚫 Ego? Leave It at the Door:
Ego is that party crasher no one likes.
Don't let your ego dictate your trades. Remember, even the best traders face losses. Stay humble, stick to your strategy, and cut your losses when it's time to bail.
📆 Patience is a Virtue:
Keep your dancing shoes on, because sooner or later, the market will decide on a direction.
It might seem like a chaotic dance floor now, but trends emerge eventually, and when they do, you want to be there when the music starts playing.
So, fellow traders, while the JSE ALSI 40 keeps doing its sideways cha-cha, let's stay nimble, manage our risks, and be ready to groove with the raging bull when it charges or stay steady with the bear when it takes its turn. 🕺💃
It's all part of the game, and in the world of trading, the only constant is change!
Let's keep our eyes on the charts, our hearts in check, and our portfolios ready for whatever direction the market decides to sway next. 📊💼
Why Trading is like Strategic Gambling
It’s a big debate that runs the financial market.
Is trading gambling?
Well I’m going to try put it to bed in just a few sentences.
There are two types of gambling.
Gambling by chance and total randomness like slot machines, lotteries, Bingo, Wheel of Fortune and flipping coins.
And strategic gambling which allows you elements of control of coming out with a probabilistic chance of winning.
I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Game #1: Trading and Poker: Skill, Strategy, and a Bit of Luck
In poker, each player gets a unique hand of cards.
To win, players must devise a strategy based on their understanding of the game, their observation of their opponents, and their willingness to take risks.
Players can choose to play, bet or fold.
The same principles apply to trading.
Traders have their ‘hand’ in the form of markets to choose to trade.
To yield profit, they must understand market trends, observe competitors’ behaviours, and manage risks.
In poker, one needs to know when to fold and when to bet aggressively.
In trading we have stop losses to get us out of the trade.
We have take profits to bank our wins.
We have volume choices of how much to buy or sell.
And we have the choice to stay out completely.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience, which are crucial in trading, where emotional decisions can lead to significant losses.
Game #2: Trading and Roulette: Understanding Probabilities
Roulette is largely a game of chance where players bet on numbers, colours, or sets of numbers.
You choose whether you want to bet on red, black, even, odd, specific numbers and so on…
Although the outcomes are random, players can use probability to guide their decisions.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
But instead of placing chips on certain numbers, we place deposits (margins) in the hopes of a probable outcome.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack: Playing Against the Market (House)
Blackjack involves strategic decisions, where players decide to ‘hit’ or ‘stand’ based on their current hand and the dealer’s visible card.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn.
In trading, technical analysis serves a similar purpose by predicting future market movements based on past data.
Bet too high with trading and you stand to lose a lot more.
And if you can’t count with Black Jack, then you have a much bigger disadvantage to the game.
If you don’t have strong and stringent money management principles, then good luck trying to maintain, preserve and protect your portfolio.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing: Know your horse!
Horse racing involves choosing the right horse based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
This is like trading. You need to understand each market you trade.
It has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You also need to know which market is conducive for your trading portfolio.
And you need to choose the right stock or asset to trade based on its performance history, current market conditions, and other factors.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting: Predictive Analysis and Risk
Sports betting also works similar to trading.
You need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, home and away records, and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to know your team players, strategy and likelihood of who is to win what game.
Traders also conduct similar analyses, studying companies’ financial health, market trends, and technical indicators to predict market movements.
And as always, there are both risks that need to be calculated and managed for high probability successful outcomes.
So next time when someone tells you trading is just gambling. You tell them, they are right but it’s strategic gambling rather than gambling by chance.
OoRedOo And the 101 LessonA Beautiful Visualization how Previous Volumetric Block Orders and Liquidity Grab Candles (highlighted in Blue & Red) acts as Strong Support and Resistance Levels now in case price passes the current Volumetric Block Order it will go next.
How to play around this!
101 lesson: NEVER make trade decision inside Volumetric Block Orders since it ONLY! belong to market makers just wait, the chances for trader to lose his trade inside these zones pretty much high! for now wait the price to settle and never make trade like rookies traders,
This What I Call IT! " SMART MONEY! " V.S " DUMB MONEY! "
PRICE ACTION: DOJI PATTERNWhat to do with Doji?
Beginning forex traders, having come across the candlestick pattern Doji, get lost and start making rash actions. They close and open positions, change stop-loss, etc. Naturally, such rush leads to losses. So how to be with doji, what to do when such a candlestick appears on the chart?
What is Doji?
A doji is a candlestick that has equal or almost equal opening and closing prices. There should also be shadows on both sides of the candlestick that are about the same size.
A doji indicates an agreement between buyers and sellers, or the absence of players, or a testing of a level. This formation can either be a reversal formation or it can lead to a continuation of the trend. We can say that the Doji is the yellow color of a traffic light.
How to trade the Doji?
The Doji candlestick pattern can be taken as a reversal signal only in one case. If the following conditions are met (simultaneously):
• Doji was preceded by a strong, and clearly visible extended trend.
• Before the doji there was a full-body candlestick of medium or large size (relative to the current chart) in the direction of the trend.
• There is a confirmation, i.e. after the doji there was a candle opposite to the dominant trend.
• Only if these three conditions are present, we can consider an entry against the trend after the doji appears. In all other cases, the doji is simply ignored.
Stop Loss is placed behind the doji's extreme point, Take Profit at the nearest support/resistance level. Since the doji pattern is not strong, we do not take big targets.
Important Points
• It is highly desirable to have a support/resistance level as well as for any Price Action setup.
• The doji maximum is a level, the break of which will mean that the trend is still in force.
• Other timeframes should not be overlooked
• On timeframes less than H1 the doji means NOTHING.
• Always wait for confirmation
• If the market is moving sideways, just ignore the doji.
• Only the FIRST doji is important
• Short shadows are desirable for a reversal
UKOIL
EURUSD
Conclusion
The Doji pattern is mostly just a confusing trading pattern. In 95% of cases, it should simply be ignored. You can only trade the Doji if you fulfill 3 conditions at the same time: a clear trend, a full-body, non-small candlestick in the direction of the trend before the Doji, and a confirming candlestick against the trend after the Doji.
Exploring the Features of TradingView: Your Ultimate Trading PalIntroduction:
TradingView has gained widespread recognition as a versatile platform for traders and investors, offering a wide range of tools and features to analyze and trade financial markets. In this guide, we will dive into the core features that make TradingView a go-to choice for traders of all levels.
User-Friendly Interface
Intuitive Charting : Discover how TradingView's user-friendly charting interface allows traders to analyze price movements with ease.
Customizable Layouts : Learn about the platform's flexibility in creating customized layouts, allowing traders to arrange charts and tools to suit their preferences.
Powerful Charting Tools
Drawing Tools : Explore a variety of drawing tools, including trendlines, shapes, and Fibonacci retracement, to enhance technical analysis.
Technical Indicators : Discover a vast library of technical indicators, from moving averages to oscillators, to aid in market analysis.
Chart Types : Understand how TradingView supports different chart types, such as candlestick, bar, and line charts, catering to various trading strategies.
Real-Time Market Data
Real-Time Price Data : Learn how TradingView provides real-time and historical price data for a wide range of assets, including forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
Economic Calendar : Explore the integrated economic calendar, offering timely updates on key economic events and their potential impact on the markets.
Trading Integration
Broker Integration: Find out how TradingView allows users to connect their trading accounts with supported brokers to execute trades directly from the platform.
Paper Trading: Learn about the paper trading feature, which lets users practice trading strategies without risking real capital.
Social Collaboration
Community and Sharing : Discover TradingView's social aspects, where traders can share ideas, charts, and analyses with the trading community.
Script Sharing: Explore how users can create and share custom scripts and indicators with others in the TradingView community.
Alerts and Notifications
Price Alerts: Understand how traders can set price alerts to be notified when an asset reaches a specified price level.
News Alerts: Learn about the platform's news feed and alerts for staying updated on market-moving news.
Mobile Accessibility
Mobile Apps: Find out how TradingView offers mobile apps for both iOS and Android devices, enabling traders to monitor and trade on the go.
Scripting and Strategy Development
Pine Script: Explore the proprietary Pine Script language, allowing users to create custom indicators and trading strategies.
Conclusion:
TradingView stands out as a comprehensive and feature-rich platform that caters to the needs of traders and investors across various markets. With its user-friendly interface, powerful charting tools, real-time data, social collaboration, and integration capabilities, it has become an invaluable companion for traders looking to make informed decisions and execute trades efficiently.
Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, TradingView's diverse features empower you to analyze markets, develop strategies, and participate in trading with confidence.