Top 12 Trading Myths Busted! TRADING MYTHBUSTERSIt’s time we cut through the BS and noise and shed some light on the TRUE and REAL world of financial trading.
I can’t believe the misconceptions and false ideas of trading are still making appearances.
It’s time to educate yourself before you eradicate your account.
So let’s debunk some common and dangerous trading myths.
Myth 1: It’s a Get-Rich-Quick Scheme
Trading has long been shrouded in the myth of transforming anyone into an overnight millionaire.
But it’s an illusion. It’s what drives newbies and amateurs into the trading world.
And then a few months later, when they realise what it actually takes to grow an account.
They move to the next “best” thing.
Trading is a forever life-style that requires ongoing discipline and patience through strategic planning, knowledge and presteen execution.
And not to mention, it also involves periods of losses.
There are no shortcuts to wealth in trading, it’s a journey, not a sprint!
Myth 2: It’s Just High-Stakes Gambling
Trading is a form of gambling.
But strategic gambling.
It’s not like pulling the slots machine and having a chance of being right or wrong.
Or flipping a coin.
No, trading has an element of risk and reward control.
And it is based on nothing more than probabilities and comprehensive understanding of market trends, money management and analytical skills.
Unlike gambling, which is based largely on luck.
You have an element of control with the outcome. That’s through trading journals, back and forward testing and making stringent decisions.
Myth 3: More Risk, More Reward
Yes! If you risk more you’ll gain more.
But when you risk more, you can also LOSE way more.
With trading derivatives and leverage, you’re exposed to more than what you put in.
Sometimes 10 times, sometimes 50 and other times 500.
So, this alone should tell you how dangerous trading is.
When your portfolio goes to 0 – due to high risk – That’s it.
And many traders full port their accounts. And majority become the 98% losing stat of trading.
Stick to low risk, low return.
Keep consistent and the return will start adding up and you’ll reap the rewards in time.
Myth 4: Only the Rich Can Trade
The myth that trading is a club exclusive to the wealthy is just that, a myth.
Decades a go, you would have needed thousands to start trading and investing.
But no longer is that the case.
Some brokerages don’t even have a minimum with trading. You can start off with a demo or practice account.
As long as the competition and innovation picks up, trading will be cheaper, faster and more accessible.
Myth 5: Trading is Only About Buy low – sell high
Although this seems like a logical strategy.
It’s not the only way to profit.
Trading techniques like short selling allow traders to profit from falling markets.
Not only can you buy low and sell high.
You can also sell high and buy low.
Myth 6: More Trades Equal More Profit
Trading isn’t a game of ping pong.
You don’t just play as many times as you can in a day, to profit.
First, Overtrading can lead to rushed decisions, increased transaction costs, and significant stress. Patience often plays a crucial role in a trader’s success.
And second, it all depends on the market environments.
If the market is not trending, you can go long or short and still lose every bet.
Rember you still have to let the market move up or down a bit to make up for the trading costs!
And so you’re already at a disadvantage when you take a trade.
Sometimes the best move is to sit on your hands.
Neutral is also a position and a powerful position during certain periods.
Myth 7: Successful Trading Means Winning Every Trade
Even the most successful traders get knocked down by losses.
It’s the nature of the trading game.
What matters is the net outcome over a period of time.
Your job is to make sure the losses are small and the gains are bigger.
That way, even with a 50% win rate you’ll win and the profits will outweigh the losses in the long run.
Myth 8: Complicated Strategies Yield Better Results
You’ve heard of analysis paralysis right?
When you literally plant so many indicators on your chart it looks like a Jackson Pollocks Christmas Tree painting.
Complication does not equate to success.
You’ll learn that:
Too many indicators will conflict with each other.
You’ll struggle to back test a system.
You’ll struggle to find high probability trades.
You’re making it more complex than it needs to be.
And most important… You need to learn to KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).
Often, the best trading strategies are the simplest.
What’s essential is understanding your strategy thoroughly and executing it consistently.
Myth 9: You Need to Monitor the Market 24/7
Thanks to stop-loss orders and other automated tools, you do not need to be glued to your screens all day.
The most important attention you’ll need to apply is trading layout, setup and execution.
Once you’re done and the trading levels are in place.
Go live, do something else.
Don’t be a nerd.
Enjoy life.
Trading requires attention, indeed, but a healthy balance is crucial to maintain clear-headed decisions.
Myth 10: Markets Are Always Rational
Markets, unfortunately, aren’t always rational.
Just like you learn in school. There is ideal and real ways of the world.
Sometimes, the market is one clusterfreak of confusion.
Correlations don’t work according to the book.
Trends don’t match up the micro and macro analyses of companies.
Good news doesn’t mean strong uptrends.
Markets are run by many, many, many other factors.
They can be swayed by demand, supply, algorithms, Smart Money, greed, panic, emotion, rumor, and corruption and manipulation.
This will lead to price distortions.
There is a famous quote attributed to Great Depression-era economist John Maynard Keynes –
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.
Myth 11: Brokers Want You to Lose Money
Yes there are a ton of brokers who make money when you lose.
But reputable, credible and top regulated brokers – do NOT want you to lose.
They make their money from brokerages, spread and from trading volumes.
They want you to succeed and grow. Because if you blow your account, they lose a client.
Hence, when brokers approach me I always tell them the importance of education, guidance and helping them SUCCEED.
Myth 12: Once a Successful Trader, Always a Successful Trader
Market conditions, strategies, and personal circumstances change.
If you want to be a successful trader and remain one it requires constant learning, adaptation, and diligent risk management.
This includes me!
Despite how long I’ve been in the markets, I treat each day independently. I follow my system, risk management rules. I look for future opportunities and prospects to improve my trading, platform, journals and even testing.
This is forever an alive game that requires action. We are always learning, growing, improving and adapting.
Like they say, past success doesn’t guarantee future profits.
Let’s sum up the 12 common Trading Myths:
Myth 1: It’s a Get-Rich-Quick Scheme
Myth 2: It’s Just High-Stakes Gambling
Myth 3: More Risk, More Reward
Myth 4: Only the Rich Can Trade
Myth 5: Trading is Only About Buy low – sell high
Myth 6: More Trades Equal More Profit
Myth 7: Successful Trading Means Winning Every Trade
Myth 8: Complicated Strategies Yield Better Results
Myth 9: You Need to Monitor the Market 24/7
Myth 10: Markets Are Always Rational
Myth 11: Brokers Want You to Lose Money
Myth 12: Once a Successful Trader, Always a Successful Trader
If this was helpful let me know in the comments!
Fundamental Analysis
Exploring the Weekly OptionsCME: E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Weekly Options ($Q1D-$Q5D)
When I first started trading two decades ago, I was overwhelmed by the amount of data that was available. I had a hard time correlating how data relates to price movement. While observing the stock market, I have one question in particular: why does the market often moves drastically immediately after the release of a major report?
Over time, I learnt that these reports provide insight into how the economy works. New data validates our assumptions about the future. Take the United States as an example:
• Consumers drive the U.S. economy;
• Consumers need jobs to be able to buy things and keep the economy going;
• The ebb and flow between the degree of joblessness and full employment drive economic activity up or down;
• How easy or difficult for households and businesses to get credit affects consumption, jobs, and investment.
The following reports have an outsized impact on global financial markets:
• The Nonfarm Payroll Report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS);
• The Consumer Price Index, also published by the BLS;
• Personal Income and Outlays, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA);
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also by the BEA;
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, this is where the Federal Reserve sets the Fed Funds interest rates, ten times a year;
• Interest rate actions by other central banks, including European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China.
Binary Outcomes: Ideal Setting for Options Trading
For these highly anticipated reports, investors usually reach a consensus on the expected impact of the new data prior to its release. Market price tends to price in such investor expectations.
The next FOMC meeting is on September 20th. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the futures market currently expects a 94% probability that the Fed would keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range.
The September contract of CME Fed Funds Futures (ZQU3) is last settled at 94.665. This implies a Fed Funds rate of 5.335%, right in the middle of the target range.
When new data is released, investors focus less on the actual data, but more on how it compares to the consensus. Because the prevailing price already reflected market expectation, new data serves to either confirm or dispute it. We could use a range of -1 to +1 to categorize these outcomes:
• Well Below Expectations, -1;
• Meet Expectations, 0;
• Well Above Expectations, +1.
The sign of the outcome does not necessarily correspond to a positive or negative price movement. It differs by the type of data and the respective financial instrument.
We could further simplify the results into binary outcomes:
• Within Expectation: 0, where actual data approximates previous expectation;
• Beyond Expectation: 1, either below or above expectation by a pre-defined margin.
Both human and computer think in binary terms: Light switch On or Off, Price goes Up or Down, Risk turns On or Off. In derivatives market, we could buy a Call Options if we expect the price to go up, and a Put Options if we think the price will decline.
Weekly Options for Event-Driven Strategies
The FOMC meeting is the most significant event that affects global markets. Market may stay calm if the Fed keeps rate unchanged (within expectation). However, if the Fed raises rate unexpectedly, you could hear investors screaming all around the world!
To trade the Fed decision, investors could form different strategies using a wild variety of instruments, such as stock market indexes, Treasury bonds, forex futures, gold, WTI crude oil, and even bitcoin. Today, we focus on the Nasdaq 100 index. Here are some alternatives to consider:
• Nasdaq 100 ETF: many asset managers offer them, including Invesco, iShares and ProShares. From a trader’s perspective, ETFs offer no leverage. A $100K exposure requires $100K upfront investment. If the market moves up 1%, you also gain 1%, minus the fees.
• Nasdaq 100 Futures: CME Micro Nasdaq 100 ($MNQ) has a notional value of 2 times the index, valuing it at $31025, given the Nasdaq’s last close at 15512.5. Each contract requires initial margin of $1680. The futures contract is embedded with an 18.5-to-1 leverage.
• Nasdaq 100 Options: As the nearby September contract expires on the 3rd Friday, or the 15th, ahead of the FOMC meeting date, we could not use it for our strategy. Instead, we could apply it with the December contract ($NQU3). On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call is quoted $541.50, and the 15400-strike Put is quoted $535.
• Weekly Options: On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call to expire in one week is quoted $14.25, while the 15400-strike Put to expire in one week is quoted $54.50.
Premiums for the standard American-style Options are expensive. They come with quarterly contracts and quarterly expirations. While our target date is September 20th, we have to use the December contract and acquire 3-1/2-month worth of time value.
Weekly options, on the other hand, offer more precise trading and risk management with more expirations. Investors pay low premium to get the exposure they need and avoid the unnecessary and costly time value.
For E-Mini Nasdaq 100, the weekly options that expire on Wednesday, September 20th will be listed on the prior Thursday, September 14th. If an investor forms an opinion about the FOMC decision, he could implement it with a weekly call or put next week.
Nasdaq Weekly Options are deliverable contracts. If an investor owns a call and it expires in the money, he will settle the contract with a long position in E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures. Likewise, if he owns an in-the-money put, he will get a short futures position.
If the market moves in favor of an investor’s expectation, the potential payoff could be significant due to the leverage in weekly options. If the investor is incorrect, he could lose money, up to the amount of the entire premium. However, the low-premium nature in weekly options helps contain such loss at a tolerable level.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
🔍 Understanding the Volatility Crush: Navigating ETH Recent PA
Hello, traders! In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, we often encounter intriguing phenomena like the "volatility crush." 📊
🔍 What is a Volatility Crush? A volatility crush occurs when the price of an asset, in this case, Ethereum (ETH), experiences a significant reduction in its price volatility. It's like the storm clouds clearing after a turbulent period, leading to calmer, less erratic price movements.
💡 Recent ETH Price Action: Indeed, as you've observed, ETH exhibited rapid price movements at the end of last month. However, at the start of this month, there's been a noticeable decrease in trading volume and price volatility. This suggests a potential volatility crush in progress.
🌪️ Adaptability in Wild Times: So, how can traders adapt during such times of reduced volatility?
Diversification: Consider diversifying your portfolio beyond ETH. Explore other cryptocurrencies or assets to spread risk.
Risk Management: Tighten your risk management strategies. Lower leverage and set stop-loss orders to protect your capital.
Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments. Crypto markets are sensitive to external factors, and unexpected news can spark volatility.
Patience: Be patient. Reduced volatility doesn't mean inaction. It might be a good time to reassess your long-term goals and strategies.
Education: Continuously educate yourself about market dynamics. Understanding the underlying technology and market sentiment can guide your decisions.
Remember, adaptability is the name of the game in the crypto world. The ability to shift your strategies as market conditions change can help you not only survive but thrive in wild times.
Stay vigilant and trade wisely! 🚀📉
#CryptoInsights #VolatilityCrush #Adaptability #ETHPriceAction
MYFXBOOK TRADER VERIFICATIONIn the world of forex trading, Myfxbook has become a popular platform for traders to share and analyze their trading results. However, as with any online platform, there is a risk of encountering fake or fraudulent accounts that mislead users. It is crucial to be able to spot these fake Myfxbook accounts to ensure credibility and make informed decisions when following or investing in traders' strategies. In this article, we will discuss how to identify potential fake accounts and ensure the validity and reliability of Myfxbook traders.
1. Unrealistic returns
One of the first signs of a fake Myfxbook account is consistently high and unrealistic returns. While it is possible to achieve high profits in forex trading, one must be cautious when faced with accounts that consistently generate unrealistically high returns without any significant losses or drawdowns. Without a capital growth chart of a trader on Myfxbook, it is impossible to draw clear conclusions about his trading results. A capital growth chart allows you to see how a trader manages his trades and how his account rises or falls over time. Also look at the difference between gains and absolute gains, as these two parameters, can be confusing to most traders. It can be used by scammers to trick traders. Scammers can increase a small account by 100% and then deposit an additional $20,000 to make it appear as if all profits were made in a larger trading account. The main difference between the two is that: gains show growth from initial deposits, while absolute gains show growth from current and subsequent deposits.
2. Absence of fluctuations and drawdowns
Genuine trading accounts usually show ups and downs, periods of profit and drawdowns. If a Myfxbook account shows a steady uptrend without any significant fluctuations or drawdowns, this may be an indication of a fake account. Real traders experience moments of losses and corrections that are reflected in their trading history. No trader, no matter how experienced, can completely avoid losing trades. A red flag is an account at Myfxbook that does not have a single losing trade or negative pips. Realistically, losses are part of trading and a true account should reflect both winning and losing trades. If the chart shows constant growth without natural drawdowns, it may indicate that the trader may be using for example a martingale system (or other martingale variants), which will eventually lead to a capital loss. It is important to pay attention to the stability of capital growth, the absence of sharp jumps or declines, as well as the general trend of growth.
3. Abnormal trading duration
Pay attention to the duration of trades displayed on your Myfxbook account. If trades consistently last only a few seconds or minutes, this may indicate a scalping technique that can be difficult to execute profitably. Although some traders specialize in scalping, it is important to check the consistency and effectiveness of such strategies. Also note whether the Myfxbook account has been recently updated and whether there are signs of active trading. If the account is not active for a long time, it may indicate that most of the open trades were losing or the strategy is no longer working. But the trader can all show a graph of the yield curve before and deceive newbies.
4. Suspicious trading history
Carefully examine the trading history presented on the Myfxbook account. Look for any irregular patterns or actions that seem too good to be true. Several winning trades in a row without a loss or a high volume of trades made within a short period can be potential signs of a fake account. A trader with a long history and consistent profits may be more reliable than someone with limited data. But since trading is about probability rather than certainty, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Note whether a backtest or a real trading strategy has been downloaded. Many traders may upload a backtest to show the amazing results of a trading strategy in order to lure new traders.
5. Verification through Myfxbook
If strategies are to be made public or used for business and advisory purposes, they must be verified. Without verification, the user may not know if the strategy is reliable or if it is a scam. One of the most reliable ways to verify the reliability of a Myfxbook account is through the Verified Track Record feature. It requires account verification with partner brokers and adds an extra layer of verification of the account and trading results. If most of the information is hidden it is 100% scam, as a common method used by scammers is the martingale trading strategy. It involves taking a risk with a huge transaction size that covers all costs and losses for a certain period of time, that is, if it succeeds. And scammers have to hide it.
As forex trading continues to gain popularity, it's important to be careful and vigilant when encountering traders on platforms like Myfxbook. Identifying fake or fraudulent accounts is necessary to protect yourself from potential fraudulent activities and misrepresentation. By looking for signs of unrealistic returns, analyzing fluctuations and drawdowns, verifying them with Myfxbook's verification feature and being cautious about suspicious trading histories, you can make sure that the Myfxbook accounts you follow or invest in are reliable and trustworthy. Remember, doing thorough research and due diligence is key to making informed decisions in the forex market.
Learn the KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis.
1️⃣History Repeats
History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market.
Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time.
Take a look at the example:
Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical.
2️⃣Priced In
All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price.
When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in.
3️⃣Pattern DO Work
Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements.
Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market.
Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns...
Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets.
If you believe in these 3 principles , you are an inborn technician!
Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Understanding Price Gaps and Their Significance 💱🌉📉
In the dynamic world of forex trading, price gaps, often referred to simply as "gaps," are a phenomenon that can significantly impact market analysis and trading decisions. Understanding what gaps are, how they occur, and their implications is crucial for any forex trader. In this comprehensive article, we'll explore the concept of gaps in forex, provide real-world examples, and shed light on their relevance in your trading journey.
Unveiling Price Gaps
A gap in forex refers to a sudden, substantial difference between the closing price of one candlestick and the opening price of the next. These gaps typically occur in the forex market during times when trading is closed for the weekend, such as between Friday's closing and Sunday's opening, or due to significant economic events, news releases, or geopolitical developments.
Types of Price Gaps
1. Common Gap (Area Gap):
This type of gap is characterized by a moderate price difference and often gets filled relatively quickly. Common gaps are generally considered less significant for trading analysis.
2. Breakaway Gap:
Breakaway gaps signal a shift in market sentiment and often occur at the start of a new trend. They tend to have larger price differences and are of particular interest to technical analysts.
3. Exhaustion Gap:
Exhaustion gaps occur near the end of a trend and indicate waning momentum. They are often followed by a reversal in price direction.
The Significance of Gaps
1. Support and Resistance: Gaps can act as support or resistance levels. Traders often observe whether a gap gets filled (prices return to the pre-gap level) or remains open, as it can provide insights into future price movements.
2. Market Sentiment: Different types of gaps reflect varying levels of market sentiment. Breakaway gaps signal strong conviction, while exhaustion gaps suggest potential reversals.
3. Trading Strategy: Traders may incorporate gap analysis into their strategies, such as trading breakouts or reversals based on gap patterns.
Gaps in forex trading are intriguing phenomena that provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. By understanding the types of gaps and their implications, traders can make more informed decisions and better navigate the complexities of the forex market. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, bridging the knowledge gap about gaps can be a game-changer in your trading journey. 📊🌄🚀
What do you want to learn in the next post?
HIGHER HIGH AND LOWER LOW STRATEGYHello, fellow forex traders! Today we are going to learn about a strategy called HIGHER HIGH AND LOWER LOW. It is quite possible that the strategy is known to you under a different name, as it belongs to the classic ones. The strategy is based on Price Action, i.e. on the price movement and no indicators are required. Nevertheless, indicators can be used for better clarity and to simplify the search for setups.
What is the essence of this strategy?
In any strategy there must be some basis on which it should work. When creating your own strategy, you also need such a foundation, for example, some inefficiency of the market, or its regularity, and on this basis, you can build points for entry-exit and correction of the position. First of all, let's remember the classical definition of a trend. An uptrend is a series of successively rising highs and rising lows. That is, each high (H) is higher than the previous one and each low (L) is higher than the previous one.
The opposite is true with a downtrend. In a downtrend, the highs consecutively decline and the lows also decline. Perhaps you have already guessed what kind of structure we will be looking for on the chart. That is, what is the very first sign that will allow us to understand when we should pay attention to the market and wait for a possible entry point.
Let's assume that we have an uptrend. We have point H, followed by a correction at point L. This is followed by a higher high, labeled in this strategy as HH (Higher High). Then, as soon as we see a break in the trend structure, i.e. a lower low LL (Lower Low), we get ready to look for a sell point.
Similarly, with the downtrend. First, we determine the low L, then the high on the correction H, the lower low LL and finally the higher high HH. This means that the structure of the downtrend is broken. We pay attention to this situation and wait for a possible entry point to buy.
Let's start by considering a sell entry. We enter on the pullback to point H. This structure works because there are big players in the market, and big players need liquidity. That is, in order to make a large sale they need a large number of buy orders to " dump" the currency. The zone between H and HH is a zone of high liquidity. Accordingly, there are many people willing to buy here, as they hope for the continuation of the uptrend. You can enter with a pending order; in which case the sequence is as follows. We wait for the formation of the LL point (trend break). Then set Sell Limit at level H.
As in the case of selling, in the reverse pattern we have a zone of increased liquidity between points L and LL. There are many people who want to sell here, those who hope for the continuation of the downtrend. Someone bought too early, someone panics and closes positions, also many people may have stop-losses in this zone. Accordingly, it is a good opportunity for a big player to buy, and we enter the market together with it. We are waiting for the formation of the HH point. Then set Buy Limit at the level of L.
Risk management
We place the stop loss behind the extreme point of the high liquidity zone. HH - in case of sells, LL - in case of buys. Stop-loss is placed at the points where we can say for sure that we are wrong. We have two targets. For sells, the first target is at the L level, the second at LL. For buying, on the contrary, we take the first profit from H, the second from HH. If the distance between the target 1 and 2 is too small, it makes sense to take only the first target. In other cases, you can take the average value between the two points to set take profit.
Some examples
Let's look at an example. Here we see the formation of a low, correction H and a lower low - LL. Then the price draws a zigzag without going beyond the boundaries of the points we have marked. For clarity, don't forget to draw levels. You can ignore the zigzags inside the levels.
When there is a higher maximum - HH, that is, the structure of the downtrend is broken, we start looking for buys. In this case, we need a pullback to the L point. After the formation of the HH point, we set Buy Limit at the L level and wait. In this case, the price reached our order and then went up.
The entry point can be quite far away from the set-up that was formed. In this case, we had an upward trend. First we mark the first high, then the low and the higher high - HH. Then, following the ZigZag clues, we find the lower low LL, which is quite far away. The entry point for selling will be located at the H level. At this level we are looking to sell. At first glance, the distance is large. Accordingly, the price subsequently bounces from the level marked by us. We place the stop-loss slightly above the extreme point - HH. In this case, the take/stop ratio is very good.
As you may have already guessed, this strategy combines the theory of support/resistance levels. Candlesticks with large shadows in the rebound zone show how the big players gained positions by destroying the buys. Accordingly, the price then went down, reaching our take profit.
Summary
Try not to look for setups in price chaos that are not there. Trade only the right setups with a good ratio of profit to risk. This method I find great for reversal at supply and demand zones. Also, this strategy can be used in combination with other strategies. In general, it is a good foundation for your development as a trader.
The 3 Musketeers of Risk AnalysisIntroduction:
In the world of investing, managing risk is as crucial as seeking returns. Three vital tools for assessing risk-adjusted returns are the Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Omega Ratio. In this post, we'll explore these ratios, their calculation, their unique features, and when to use them.
1. Sharpe Ratio: Balancing Risk and Return
Measures risk-adjusted returns using total volatility (both up and down).
Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Portfolio Standard Deviation.
Strength: Widely accepted and provides a simple assessment of risk-adjusted return.
Weakness: Assumes normal distribution and ignores skewness.
2. Sortino Ratio: Focusing on Downside Risk
Emphasizes downside risk.
Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Downside Deviation (only negative returns).
Strength: Ideal for risk-averse investors and non-normally distributed returns.
Weakness: Ignores upside volatility.
3. Omega Ratio: Probability of Positive Returns
Evaluates risk-adjusted returns based on the probability of achieving positive returns.
Formula: Probability of Positive Returns / Probability of Negative Returns.
Strength: Provides insights into return probabilities and considers tail events.
Weakness: Less recognized and may require more data.
Conclusion:
Understanding these ratios helps investors make informed decisions. The Sharpe Ratio simplifies risk-return assessment, the Sortino Ratio prioritizes downside protection, and the Omega Ratio analyzes return probabilities. Combining these ratios offers a comprehensive view of investment performance in an unpredictable financial world.
The Slight Depression - Why NFP Numbers aren't tha NB* with TechWhy jobs added or lost won’t have a big effect on the tech stock markets in the future
Every month, I get asked about NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls).
This is a barometer that comes out on the 1stFriday of every month.
It tells us one thing.
Whether the number of jobs were added or lost in the US economy for the previous month (excluding farming jobs).
Well let’s take the NFP number coming out today (1 September 2023)
Prior was 187,000 and the Forecast is 170,000.
So already, they are guessing there’ll be 17,000 less jobs added this month compared to last month.
In the past I would say, anything less than 170K might be a cause of concern to the stock market and companies (especially in tech) as less people were assigned jobs.
But this month, I have a shift in mind and thoughts.
If NFP comes out worse than expected…
I don't necessarily think this will have a bad effect on the NASDAQ.
In fact, the Nasdaq is showing strong signs of upside to come in the next few months.
Between the Falling Wedge, the Price above 200MA, the price jumping from the prior uptrend - It looks like the NASDAQ wants to shoot up!
And companies like Nvidia, META, Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and even Tesla, I believe, will do just fine cutting jobs and building their empires simultaneously.
And whether the NFP drops or rises, NASDAQ along with tech stocks will do just fine.
Now let's talk about something a little more solemn.
I have a wild thought of the day.
In the era of accelerated technological advancements and revolutionary influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence), there is a paradigm shift happening between the biologics and the non-biologics.
Sure tech companies will need a strong workforce, but I don’t think they need an excessive amount of employees like in the past.
In the AI era with new AI developments, deep and machine learning to optimise and maximise operations and profits…
I think we WILL undoubtedly see a major disruption in the employee force.
But here is where it gets scary…
Those who adapt, grow and evolve will make it.
Those who don't might, fall behind and into what I call.
The Slight Depression
This is where things are getting tough and more expensive.
· Salaries are staying the same while prices are going up.
· Groceries you have to think twice when buying cereals.
· Flights are crazy.
· Rates and taxes are just ridiculous.
· Some restaurants are out of their minds.
· Don’t start with mortgages, bonds, insurance and medical aid.
· Filling up a tank of petrol is showing off nowadays!
Clearly, there is a shift between the lower and upper class.
Where I truly believe the middle class is falling away very quickly.
Soon it’ll be lower and upper class!
No in between and that scares me!
So…
The onus now lies YOU.
You really need to adapt, adopt and integrate to this rapidly evolving landscape.
Foe examples, if you possess the skills to work alongside AI, harness its potential, and contribute to its development, you’ll stand a chance in the job market.
If you continue to learn new tricks, no matter how old or young of a dog you are.
If you continue to upskill yourself.
If you invest in yourself (physically, mentally and financially).
You’ll have the upper hand.
What are your thoughts?
Do you think a lower NFP number is bad for tech stocks and an index like the NASDAQ?
Do you think The Slight Depression is among us?
Answer yes or no.
Driving Forces Behind Cryptocurrencies' VolatilityIn the ever-evolving realm of modern finance, the emergence of cryptocurrencies has catalyzed a seismic shift, captivating the imagination of investors and traders alike. Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009, the cryptocurrency market has experienced an unprecedented surge, leading to a proliferation of digital assets, each with its own unique characteristics and potential applications.
However, amid the exhilarating highs and gut-wrenching lows, the cryptocurrency market's intrinsic volatility has left many pondering the enigmatic forces that propel its wild fluctuations. This article embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the fundamental drivers that propel the volatile universe of cryptocurrencies, providing an in-depth analysis of the intricate interplay between a myriad of elements that influence prices and sentiment.
From the far-reaching impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory dynamics to the revolutionary power of technological advancements and the sway of market sentiment, a complex tapestry of influences collectively shapes the turbulent journey of digital currencies. As the global financial ecosystem grapples with the ongoing evolution of this nascent asset class, acquiring an intimate understanding of these pivotal factors becomes a cornerstone for investors, traders, and enthusiasts navigating this dynamic landscape.
Diving into the Cryptocurrency Mosaic
Cryptocurrencies have transcended their origin with Bitcoin to establish a vibrant and diverse ecosystem of digital assets. Each cryptocurrency possesses a distinct set of attributes, use cases, and underlying technologies, intricately weaving into the intricate fabric of the market.
Broadly categorized, cryptocurrencies fall into two primary groups: coins and tokens. Coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash are engineered to facilitate transactions and serve as alternatives to conventional currencies. In contrast, crypto tokens are constructed atop existing blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, fulfilling functions like governance and ecosystem transactions.
Furthermore, the consensus mechanisms employed by cryptocurrencies contribute to their diversity. The proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, utilized by Bitcoin and others, relies on mining for transaction validation. Conversely, the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, exemplified by Ethereum and Cosmos, leverages validators to confirm transactions, enhancing energy efficiency and scalability.
Decrypting Cryptocurrency Volatility
Volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of cryptocurrencies, fueled by a confluence of influential factors:
Limited Liquidity: With trading volumes and market capitalization often lower than traditional assets, even modest buy or sell orders can generate substantial price fluctuations.
Speculative Nature: Cryptocurrencies are frequently viewed as speculative instruments, leading to price movements driven by market sentiment, hype, and speculative behavior, rather than fundamental analysis.
Regulatory Ambiguity: As a relatively nascent and lightly regulated market, regulatory developments can trigger abrupt price shifts as investors respond to changes or uncertainties in the legal landscape.
Sentiment Swings: Market sentiment, shaped by events like security breaches or regulatory announcements, can exert considerable influence on cryptocurrency prices.
Manipulation Vulnerability: Due to limited oversight and liquidity in certain markets, cryptocurrencies are susceptible to manipulation by sizable holders, leading to price distortions.
Technological Factors: Technical vulnerabilities or glitches can prompt swift price fluctuations as investors react to perceived risks associated with the underlying technology.
Adoption and Utilization: The practical adoption and use cases of cryptocurrencies significantly influence their value. Currencies with tangible utility and real-world applications tend to garner heightened interest and market support.
Supply and Demand: The fundamental economics of supply and demand guide cryptocurrency prices. Scarce supply coupled with growing demand can propel prices upward.
Macroeconomic Influences: Broader macroeconomic factors, encompassing inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events, can channel investor attention toward cryptocurrencies as alternative investment vehicles or stores of value.
Influential Figures' Statements: Public endorsements or criticisms from influential figures exert considerable impact on cryptocurrency prices, shaping market perceptions and behavior.
Conclusion
As cryptocurrencies reshape the financial landscape, delving into the driving forces behind their volatility is essential for navigating this dynamic market. From the inception of Bitcoin to the kaleidoscope of digital assets that now flourish, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by its rollercoaster-like price oscillations.
This article has undertaken a comprehensive exploration of the key factors influencing this volatile realm. Regulatory shifts, market sentiment, technological advancements, hacking incidents, and supply-demand dynamics all converge to define cryptocurrency movements. Understanding these multifaceted influences empowers investors, traders, and enthusiasts to navigate the unpredictability of the crypto landscape with poise and informed decision-making.
While cryptocurrencies promise transformation, their journey is marked by rapid evolution and maturation. As the landscape continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance and adaptability remains pivotal. Regardless of your vantage point, comprehending these factors empowers you to seize opportunities and surmount challenges in the captivating realm of digital assets.
How to Begin Trading in 6 Steps
If you have already taken the leap and started trading – You may skip this article and enjoy your day 😊
Beginner traders, I’m writing this for you!
Financial trading has never been more accessible, cheaper and innovative than ever before.
What you have available today, I once had to pay up to $10,000 a year. And some charting platforms cost up to $25,000 a year!
Absolutely insane.
And now today, it’s ready for you for practically FREE especially on TradingView!.
However, if you’re ready to to embark on this journey successfully, there are some essential components that you must have.
You’ll need 6 things to start your trading the right way.
1. Trading Platform
A trading platform is your gateway to the financial markets.
It’s an online software that allows you to execute trades, monitor markets, analyze price charts, and do much more.
The best platforms are user-friendly, offer a wide range of tools, and support multiple asset classes such as stocks, forex, insdices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. They should also offer either spread betting, CFDs (which is what I like), futures and or lots.
Make sure the platform you choose is regulated by relevant financial authorities and offers strong security measures to safeguard your funds and data.
2. Charting Platform
A charting platform is a tool used to visualize market data.
You should be able to choose various formats such as line, bar, and candlestick charts.
They also provide a range of technical analysis indicators, such as moving averages, RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci retracements, which can help you analyze market trends and make informed trading decisions.
When you choose a charting platform, consider its ease of use, customizability, the range of available indicators, and compatibility with your trading platform.
3. Fund Your Account
Before you can start trading, you need to fund your trading account.
Now here’s the funny thing.
Most people put in like $1,000 or like $10,000 – Something ridiculously small.
And they just keep it at that. Look, you can have a sizeable account in your portfolio. And you can trade as if you have $1,000. You don’t need to trade everything.
But you do need to take that leap and deposit money into your account.
Also, understand the platform’s margin requirements to avoid potential margin calls (When they tell you – you have to cough up more money).
You need to be 100% ready and have your capital management prepared to a T.
4. Trading Strategy
This is your roadmap.
This is your ‘holy-grail’
This is your game plan.
This is your future plan in the financial markets.
You get the point.
A strategy will outline:
• How to know when a trade lines up.
• When to enter trades according to criteria
• When to exit a trade according to criteria.
• When to adjust your trade if need be (Lock in profits, cut losses, maximise gains).
• Which markets to trade
• How much to risk on each trade.
Your strategy can be based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination of both.
I have used a 20 year old strategy that incorporates chart patterns, money management rules, two indicators and Smart Money Concepts.
More importantly, your strategy should align with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and trading schedule.
5. Trading Journal
A trading journal is a record of all your trades.
It includes entry and exit points, the reasons for taking the trade, the strategy used, and the outcome.
I also have other elements like Mistakes, Emotions, Drawdowns, Risk to reward and so many more.
Basically, it’s a valuable tool to reflect on your performance.
This will allow you to review your trades, learn from your mistakes, and improve your strategy over time.
6. Rules and Criteria
To ensure discipline and risk management in trading, it’s essential to set rules and criteria. These guidelines will help you remain consistent and prevent emotional decision-making. Here are some examples:
• Halt after a 15% drawdown on your account:
This rule can prevent further losses during a bad trading period.
It’s a form of risk management, forcing you to stop and reassess your strategy when things are not going as planned.
• Never risk more than 2% per trade:
This rule ensures that even multiple losing trades in a row won’t wipe out your account.
• Only trade with the trend:
When market is up – only look for longs.
When market is down – only look for shorts.
When market is sideways – Be cautiously
• Every trade needs a stop-loss and take-profit level
This automates risk management, ensuring you exit trades at predetermined levels.
• Limit the number of trades per day or period
This prevents overtrading. Always think quality versus quantity. And if you have a couple of trades, make sure you know what the WORST case scenario is for your portfolio if you hit a losing streak.
Sometimes it’s best to hedge positions (Longs and Shorts). and keeps you focused on quality rather than quantity.
• No trading during high-impact news events
Markets can be particularly volatile during these times, which can increase risk.
This is just a fraction of your journey.
Enjoy your trading journey.
It’s exciting.
It’s also long, be patient. This won’t take a month, a year or even three years.
But after 3 years, you’ll get a taste of the potential of trading fortunes.
But it’s all up to you!
This needs preparation, discipline, and constant learning.
You have the starting steps…
Now get to it.
Wyckoff Accumulation & DistributionThe Wyckoff Method, pioneered by Richard Wyckoff, a prominent figure in the early 1900s stock market, remains a powerful technical analysis-based trading approach. This article delves into the intricacies of the Wyckoff Accumulation and Distribution phases, fundamental to this method.
Who was Richard Wyckoff?
Richard Wyckoff, a highly successful American stock market investor of his time, stands as a pioneer in technical analysis. He transitioned from accumulating personal wealth to addressing what he perceived as market injustices, devising the Wyckoff Method to empower traders against market manipulation. Through various platforms like his own Magazine of Wall Street and Stock Market Technique, Wyckoff disseminated his insights.
The Wyckoff Method:
Wyckoff proposed that markets undergo distinct phases: Accumulation and Distribution. These phases guide traders on when to accumulate or distribute their positions, forming the core of the method.
The Wyckoff Accumulation Phase:
This phase materializes as a sideways, range-bound period subsequent to a prolonged downtrend. During this stage, significant players seek to establish positions without causing dramatic price drops. The accumulation phase comprises six integral components, each serving a vital role:
Preliminary Support (PS): As signs of the downtrend ending emerge, high volume and wider spreads surface. Buyers initiate interest, suggesting the end of selling dominance.
Selling Climax (SC): Characterized by intense selling pressure and panic selling, this phase represents a sharp price decline. Often, price closes well above the lowest point.
Automatic Rally (AR): Late sellers experience a reversal, driven by short sellers covering positions. This phase sets the upper range limit for subsequent consolidation.
Secondary Test (ST): Controlled retesting of lows with minimal volume increase indicates potential reversal.
Spring: A deceptive move resembling a downtrend resumption, designed to deceive and shakeout participants.
Last Point of Support, Back Up, and Sign of Strength (LPS, BU, SOS): Clear shifts in price action mark the transition into the range's start. A rapid, one-sided move signifies buyer control, often following the spring.
Wyckoff Distribution Cycle:
Following Accumulation, the Wyckoff Distribution phase unfolds. This cycle consists of five phases:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Dominant traders initiate selling after a notable price rise, leading to increased trading volume.
Buying Climax (BC): Retail traders enter positions, driving further price increase. Dominant traders capitalize on premium prices to sell.
Automatic Reaction (AR): The end of the BC phase brings a price drop due to decreased buying. High supply causes a decline to the AR level.
Secondary Test (ST): Price retests the BC range, assessing supply and demand balance.
Sign of Weakness, Last Point of Supply, Upthrust After Distribution (SOW, LPSY, UTAD): SOW signals price weakness, LPSY tests support, and UTAD might occur near cycle's end, pushing the upper boundary.
Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Redistribution Cycles:
Reaccumulation occurs during uptrends, as dominant traders accumulate shares during price pauses. Redistribution, during downtrends, begins with sharp price rallies as short sellers capitalize.
Dominant traders strategically enter positions during these rallies.
Wyckoff's Foundational Concepts:
Law of Supply and Demand:
Prices rise when demand is high and supply is low. Prices fall when supply is high and demand is low. Balanced supply and demand lead to stable prices.
Law of Cause and Effect:
Price changes are driven by specific underlying factors. Price rises result from accumulation phases, while drops arise from distribution phases.
Law of Effort vs. Result:
Trading volume should match price movement. Deviations signal potential shifts in market sentiment or upcoming opportunities.
The Wyckoff Method is relevant to all markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, where supply and demand play a crucial role in influencing price movements.
Demystifying PIP in Trading: Your Key to Precision and Profit 🎯
Are you ready to uncover the essential concept of PIP in trading and how it can lead you to more accurate and profitable trading decisions? 🎯📈💰 In this comprehensive guide, we'll unravel the mystery behind PIPs, explore their significance, and provide real-world examples to help you grasp their role in the trading world. 📊🔍
Understanding PIP: The Precision Unit 📐💡
A PIP, short for "Percentage in Point," is the smallest price movement that a given exchange rate can make, typically to the fourth decimal place in major currency pairs. It's the cornerstone of measuring price changes and calculating profit or loss in forex trading.
Unveiling the Power of PIP: Real Examples 📉🔬
Example 1: Calculating Profit and Loss 📊💰
Example 2: Gauging Spread and Volatility 📈🌊
Example 3: Currency Pair Sensitivity 🔄📉
Precision in Every PIP: Elevate Your Trading Game 🎯📊
Understanding PIPs is pivotal to successful trading, enabling you to accurately assess price movements, manage risk, and calculate potential gains. Whether you're a novice trader or an experienced pro, grasping the significance of PIPs enhances your ability to make informed decisions in the fast-paced world of trading. 💼🚀
Don't let the seemingly small size of a PIP deceive you; it's the building block that can lead to significant gains in your trading journey. 🌟📈
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
PRICE ACTION: PIN BARSThe pinbar setup is a popular candlestick pattern that is widely used by traders in the forex market. It consists of a single candlestick with a small body and a long shadow, which resembles a pin. This pattern often indicates a potential reversal or continuation of a trend. In this post, we will discuss the best methods to trade the pinbar setup at key levels, trendlines, moving averages, and Fibonacci levels, accompanied by examples for better understanding.
✴️ 1. Key Levels:
Key levels are certain prices at which strong support or resistance is expected. They can be used to determine entry and exit points for trades. For example, if the price reaches a support level and forms a pinbar, it can be a buy entry signal. On the other hand, if the price reaches a resistance level and forms a pinbar, it could be a signal to enter a sell trade. Psychological levels and open interest levels can also be used to identify key levels.
✴️ 2. Trend Lines:
Trend lines are used to determine the direction of a trend. They can be drawn by connecting two or more high or low points on a chart. An uptrend is characterized by consecutive high and low points, a downtrend is characterized by consecutive low and high points, and a sideways trend is characterized by horizontal lines. Pin bars can be used to confirm or deviate from trend lines. For example, if price reaches a trend line and forms a pinbar, this can be a signal to enter a trade in the direction of the trend.
✴️ 3. Moving averages:
Moving averages are used to determine trend direction and the smoothness of price movements. A simple moving average (SMA) is calculated by summing the prices for a certain period and dividing by the number of periods. An exponential moving average (EMA) pays more attention to more recent data. Pinbars can be used in conjunction with moving averages to confirm or deviate from a trend. For example, if price crosses a moving average from top to bottom and forms a pinbar, this can be a signal to enter a sell.
✴️ 4. Fibonacci Levels:
Fibonacci levels are horizontal lines that are used to determine support and resistance levels. They are calculated based on Fibonacci numerical sequences and can be used to identify possible price reversal points. For example, if the price reaches a Fibonacci level and forms a pinbar, this can be a signal to enter a trade. Different Fibonacci levels such as 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% can be used to identify possible support and resistance levels.
✴️ Conclusion
Pinbar forex trading using key levels, trendlines, moving averages and Fibonacci levels can be an effective method for identifying entry and exit points for trades. It is important to remember that no single indicator or strategy is a guarantee of success, so a strict approach to risk management and the use of additional tools and analysis to confirm pinbar signals is essential. I hope this post will help you develop your own strategy for trading pinbars in the Forex market.
3 Month Bill Drops To 5.3%In this video, it was difficult to explain everything
--
The first thing we look at is the
3-month bill the price of this bond
--
Is set to drop as of this writing
Later the price will be baked into the market
--
In about 4 days from now
This is very important to understand
--
Because the financial market is backed by
Bonds
--
Once you understand bonds then you will learn
How you can well profit from this type
of market psychology
--
Watch this video to learn more
--
Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell what i tell you
to buy or sell do your own research before you trade
This is not financial advice
--
To learn more about this topic rocket boost this article
Unveiling Forex Leverage: Amplifying Your Potential 📈🔍🚀
Are you ready to delve into the world of forex leverage and discover how it can supercharge your trading potential? 📈🔍🚀 In this comprehensive guide, we'll break down the concept of leverage in forex, explore its benefits and risks, and provide real-life examples to help you make informed trading decisions. 💼💰
Understanding Forex Leverage: A Primer 💡
Leverage is a powerful tool that allows traders to control larger positions in the market with a relatively smaller amount of capital. It's like borrowing funds from your broker to open larger trades, magnifying both profits and losses.
Harnessing the Power of Leverage: Examples 📊💪
Example 1: Boosting Profit Potential 📈💰
Example 2: Managing Margins and Risk 📉⚖️
Example 3: Potential for Rapid Losses 📊🔻
Mastering Leverage for Trading Success 🎯📈
Leverage is a double-edged sword that can magnify both gains and losses. Understanding how to use leverage wisely is essential for a successful trading journey. With the right strategy and risk management, leverage can be a valuable tool to achieve your trading goals and amplify your success in the forex market. 🛠💼🌟
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
4 Dangerous News Events - for TradersWhen you’re a mechanical trader.
And when you think you got trading in a bag.
You still need to be logical and rational when trading the markets.
There are exceptions.
And you need to consider these exceptions which could have a profound effect on the financial markets.
It’s these unforeseen circumstances, that you need to take the stand.
You might need to risk less.
You might need to not take the trade.
You might need to halt trading for a few days.
All because of these potential 4 events.
Let’s get into them so you can stay out of them.
Black Swans (Unprecedented events)
Black Swans are highly unpredictable events that go beyond what is usually expected of a situation.
One definition I like is this.
A Black Swan is where an event can cause the market to move 10 standard deviations away from the norm.
When this happens they could potentially have severe and wide-reaching consequences.
You’ll see the market will jump erratically and even cause a halt in trading activity completely.
So when you spot a Black Swan. Just take it easy from trading the markets that can be affected.
Here are 10 Black Swan Events that I can think of that had an impact on the markets.
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Triggered by the collapse of the US housing market, it led to a worldwide banking crisis and severe global economic downturn.
COVID-19 Pandemic
An unprecedented global health crisis that had significant repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020.
Dotcom Bubble Burst (2000)
The dramatic rise (due to greed and optimism) and fall (due to fear and panic) of internet companies in the late 1990s led to a severe market correction.
Brexit (2016)
Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU had immediate impacts on global markets.
Japanese Asset Price Bubble Burst (1992)
This led to a lost decade of economic stagnation in Japan.
(Have you seen the Nikkei! And can you imagine holding stocks from 1992?)
Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015)
The Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to remove the cap on the Franc’s value against the Euro led to extreme currency volatility.
(Forex trading was a nightmare seeing some prices drop hundreds of pips).
September 11 Attacks (2001)
The terrorist attacks had immediate and long-term effects on global economies and markets.
(I was too young to worry so I missed this one.)
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster (2011)
Triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami, it had significant impacts on global energy markets.
(I remember holding oil stocks while driving. And I came home to R120,000 loss).
Flash Crash (2010)
The US stock market crash, triggered by a high-frequency trading algorithm, sent a financial shockwave around the world.
(Fat fingers caused by unknown factors).
Oil Price Negative (2020)
For the first time in history, the price of US oil turned negative due to low demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Moving on...
Non-Farm Payrolls (Major spikes during news release)
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is the big one.
It is released on the first Friday of each month and is a key economic indicator for the United States.
It shows us the total number of paid US workers, excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and employees of non-profit organizations.
When the numbers are higher than expected, there are more jobs and the stock markets go up.
When the numbers are lower than expected, there are less jobs, more pessimism which causes stock markets to plummet.
Significant deviations from forecasts in the NFP data can lead to major spikes in market volatility.
If the data shows job growth, it indicates a strong economy, which can boost the US dollar and negatively impact bonds due to the potential for increased interest rates.
Conversely, lower-than-expected job growth can indicate a weakening economy, potentially weakening the US dollar and boosting bond prices.
Possible Warnings (Micro and Macro Announcements)
Keeping an ear to the ground for both micro and macro announcements can provide a trader with essential foresight.
On a micro level, company-specific news such as:
Earnings reports
New product launches
Executive changes
M&A activities
Rights Offers and share distributions
These can result in large price movements.
On the macro level, broader economic announcements like:
Changes in monetary policy
inflation rates
QE (Quantitative Easing)
Credit tightening
GDP growth
Consumer sentiment
FOMC, Central banks meetings and economic talks
and geopolitical events
You’ll see these will have a ripple effect on wider market movements.
Huge Gaps (Spikes in Volatility in Prices)
Price gaps occur when there’s a significant difference between the closing price of one trading period and the opening price of the next.
Basically, a void between two price candles.
This generally happens when one market moves up during the day. And then a bigger and leading market crashes. This results in the first market opening a lot lower down than the previous close.
This can be due to an impactful event that happened in the time between the two periods.
Keep an eye out on these four events.
It’ll help you better navigate the market landscape, react to volatility, and potentially make better trading decisions.
Remember, the financial markets are affected by a myriad of factors, and a keen understanding of these key events can be a critical part of your trading strategy.
A Comprehensive Daily Routine of TraderGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView !
Trading in the financial markets is often likened to a battleground of strategies, psychology, and data analysis. To navigate this dynamic landscape successfully, we need more than just luck; we need a well-structured daily routine that blends education, analysis, and real-time decision-making. In this article, we delve into a comprehensive daily routine that can set traders on the path to success.
1. Read Heavy Subjects
Every trader knows that staying ahead in the game requires continuous learning. Reading trading-related books and articles is an essential part of honing one's skills. However, it's not just about skimming through the surface; the real value lies in diving into heavy subjects. Delve into trading psychology, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management.
Psychology books can help you understand the emotional aspect of trading, which often plays a pivotal role in decision-making. On the technical side, learning about chart patterns, indicators, and trend analysis can enhance your ability to identify profitable opportunities. Fundamental analysis books offer insights into evaluating a company's financial health, which is crucial for trading stocks. By dedicating time to reading heavy subjects, traders can fortify their knowledge base and make informed decisions.
2. Learn From Others
In the age of social media and online communities, learning from experienced traders has become more accessible than ever. Platforms like TradingView and Twitter are treasure troves of insights and strategies shared by smart traders. Engaging with these platforms allows you to learn from others' experiences, understand their thought processes, and adopt successful trading strategies.
However, a word of caution is necessary here. While learning from others is valuable, it's crucial to develop your own analytical skills and not blindly follow someone else's advice. Use these insights to inform your decisions, but always verify and validate the information before acting upon it.
3. OnChain Metrics
In the realm of cryptocurrency trading, where blockchain technology reigns, on-chain metrics can be powerful indicators of market trends. Tools like GlassNode and ArkhamIntelligence provide insights into on-chain activities, such as large transactions made by institutional investors (Smart Money) or significant movements by whales (holders of large amounts of cryptocurrency). Monitoring these metrics can give you a sense of potential market movements and sentiment shifts.
However, it's important to remember that while on-chain metrics can provide valuable context, they are not foolproof predictors of price movements. Cryptocurrency markets are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, and combining on-chain data with other types of analysis can yield more accurate insights.
4. Watch the Numbers
In trading, numbers are your allies. Monitoring market data, price movements, trading volumes, and other relevant metrics is a fundamental part of a trader's routine. Platforms like Tokenterminal and DefiLlama provide data on token performance and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, allowing traders to identify trends and potential opportunities.
Unusual spikes or drops in numbers can indicate significant market shifts, which might warrant further investigation. However, like any other analysis method, numbers should be interpreted within the broader market context. One should avoid making impulsive decisions solely based on numerical fluctuations.
Trading is a discipline that requires constant learning, adaptability, and discipline. Following a structured daily routine that involves in-depth reading, learning from experienced traders, monitoring on-chain metrics, and analyzing market numbers can greatly enhance a your chances of success. However, it's important to maintain a critical mindset, verify information, and integrate various analysis methods to make well-informed trading decisions.
Remember, a robust routine combined with a healthy dose of intuition can be a powerful combination in the world of trading.
ELLIOTT WAVE CORRECTIVE PATTERNS Elliott Wave corrective movements are deviations from the main trend and serve to correct errors or imperfections that occurred during the formation of an impulse movement. These corrective movements are defined by complex wave structures that can be repeated in different variations and combinations.
The wave structure consists of two types of movements - impulsive and corrective. An impulsive movement is directed in the main direction of the trend, while a corrective movement is the opposite of this direction. Correction waves are the inverse of impulse waves, and they are executed as three-type structures. Elliott described 21 correction patterns of ABC type. There are three main types of Elliott Wave corrective movements. All of them are quite simple and consist of only three patterns.
- Zig Zag
- Sideways or flat
- Triangles
1. Zigzag Corrections: This type of corrective movement consists of three waves, with the second wave diverging in the opposite direction from the trend in the first wave and the third wave returning to the main trend. Zigzag corrections can be either upward or downward.
2. Non-wave-like (Flat) Corrections: In this case, the corrective movement is a sideways movement in which the second wave deviates from the main trend and the third wave returns to it. Non-Waveform corrections can be flat or complex, depending on the structure and duration.
3. Triangular (Triangle) Corrections: In this case, the corrective movement is a triangle formation, which consists of five small waves connected to each other by triangle diagonals. Each wave of a triangle correction can be impulsive or corrective in nature.
Elliott Wave corrective movements can be combined and repeated in different ways to form complex and interesting wave structures. Studying and understanding these corrective movements allows traders and investors to predict future price movements and make appropriate market decisions. Corrective movements of Elliot waves are important for analyzing past, current and upcoming market cycles. They allow to determine possible entry and exit points of trades. However, it is worth remembering that financial markets are complex and subject to various factors, so the analysis should be done with caution and taking into account other factors and analysis tools.
Mastering the Rising Wedge Pattern in Forex: Your Path to Profit
Are you ready to unlock the secrets of the rising wedge pattern in the thrilling world of forex trading? 🚀 In this comprehensive guide, we'll dive into the intricacies of trading this powerful chart pattern and show you how to harness its potential for profitable gains. 📊💰
Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈
The rising wedge pattern is a technical analysis formation that signals a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. Visually, it resembles a narrowing price range between two converging trendlines, with the upper trendline slanting more steeply than the lower one. This pattern suggests that buyers are becoming less enthusiastic, leading to a possible trend reversal. 📉📈
Trading the Rising Wedge: Step-by-Step Guide 📚
1. Identify the Pattern: Locate the two trendlines, ensuring there are at least two touches on the upper trendline and two on the lower trendline.
2. Confirming Volume: Observe the volume during the formation of the rising wedge. Ideally, there should be diminishing volume as the pattern develops, indicating weakening buying pressure.
3. Wait for Breakout: Anticipate a breakout below the lower trendline as confirmation of a potential downtrend. Consider using additional indicators to support your decision, such as RSI or MACD.
4. Set Stop Loss and Take Profit: Place your stop-loss above the recent swing high within the wedge, and set your take-profit level based on a reasonable risk-to-reward ratio.
Real-Life Examples 📊🔍
1. Example 1:
2. Example 2:
3. Example 3:
Unveil the potential of rising wedge patterns in forex trading and elevate your trading game today! 📈🔼🔽 Don't miss out on this opportunity to navigate the markets with greater confidence and precision. 💼🤑
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What is Scalping (How to Scalp the right way)To me scalping is a form of trading that's done when you're in between your moving averages or in between support and resistance levels like inside of those zones or when you are inside of consolidation and distribution areas. A lot of you claim to be scalpers on small time frames when the truth of the matter is you are simply impatient and you use 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute or less time frames on your charts.
With that being said one thing that you need to have a good grasp on is how to range trade and in this video I'm going to show you what you should be looking for when you arrange trading.
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Scalping is a trading style that specializes in profiting off of small price changes and making a fast profit off reselling. In day trading, scalping is a term for a strategy to prioritize making high volumes off small profits.
Scalping requires a trader to have a strict exit strategy because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains the trader worked to obtain. Thus, having the right tools—such as a live feed, a direct-access broker, and the stamina to place many trades—is required for this strategy to be successful.
Scalping is a trading style that specializes in profiting off of small price changes and making a fast profit off reselling.
Scalping requires a trader to have a strict exit strategy because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains the trader worked to obtain.
Having the right tools—such as a live feed, a direct-access broker, and the stamina to place many trades—is required for this strategy to be successful.
A successful stock scalper will have a much higher ratio of winning trades versus losing ones, while keeping profits roughly equal or slightly bigger than losses.
A pure scalper will make a number of trades each day—perhaps in the hundreds.
📈 The Impact of GDP on Currency Value 📉The Impact of GDP on Currency Value: Exploring the Complex Relationship
The global economy is an intricate web of interconnected factors that influence each other in profound ways. Among these factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the value of a country's currency stand out as two vital elements that play a significant role in shaping a nation's economic landscape. The relationship between GDP and currency value is a multifaceted one, involving intricate dynamics influenced by domestic and international forces. This essay delves into the complex interplay between GDP and currency value, examining how changes in GDP can impact a nation's currency strength.
Understanding GDP and Currency Value:
GDP serves as a crucial indicator of a country's economic health, representing the total value of all goods and services produced within its borders over a specific period. It reflects a nation's economic output and growth potential. Currency value, on the other hand, refers to the worth of a country's currency in relation to other currencies in the international market. Currency values fluctuate based on a myriad of factors, including interest rates, inflation, trade balances, political stability, and overall economic performance.
The Interplay:
The relationship between GDP and currency value is not one-dimensional but rather a complex interplay that involves both short-term and long-term effects. While it is commonly believed that a higher GDP should result in a stronger currency, the reality is more nuanced. Here are several ways in which GDP can impact currency value:
1. Interest Rates and Inflation:
A country's central bank typically uses interest rates as a tool to manage inflation and promote economic stability. When a nation experiences strong GDP growth, it often translates to increased consumer spending and demand for goods and services. This surge in demand can lead to higher inflation rates if supply struggles to keep up. To counter this, central banks might decide to raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and curbing excessive spending.
Higher interest rates can attract foreign investors seeking better returns on their investments. The allure of higher yields on bonds and other financial instruments denominated in the domestic currency can lead to increased demand for that currency. As foreign investors exchange their currencies for the domestic currency to make these investments, the increased demand can contribute to currency appreciation.
2. Trade Balances:
GDP growth often goes hand in hand with increased export activity. A growing economy tends to have more goods and services available for export, potentially leading to a positive trade balance where exports exceed imports. When a country's exports exceed imports, it means that more foreign currency is flowing into the country than leaving it. This can lead to an increased demand for the domestic currency, as foreign buyers need to convert their currencies to the local currency to purchase the exported goods and services.
A favorable trade balance and robust export activity can contribute to currency strength. However, it's important to note that other factors, such as import demand, trade agreements, and currency manipulation by other countries, can also influence trade balances and currency values.
3. Investor Confidence:
A high GDP growth rate is often seen as a sign of a healthy and vibrant economy. A nation that demonstrates consistent growth is likely to have a stable economic environment with abundant opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors. This positive perception can significantly enhance investor confidence.
Investor confidence matters because it affects capital flows. Foreign investors seeking reliable and profitable investment opportunities are more likely to invest in countries with strong economic fundamentals. As these investors pour capital into the country, they often convert their currencies into the local currency, increasing its demand and, consequently, its value in the foreign exchange market.
4. Capital Flows:
Countries experiencing rapid GDP growth often attract significant capital inflows from foreign investors. These investors are drawn to the potential for high returns that a growing economy can offer. As they invest in various sectors such as stocks, real estate, and businesses, they typically need to exchange their currencies for the domestic currency, increasing its demand.
The increased demand for the domestic currency driven by capital inflows can contribute to currency appreciation. However, sudden shifts in investor sentiment or changes in global economic conditions can lead to rapid capital outflows, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency's value.
5. Market Expectations:
Market participants, including investors and speculators, often base their decisions on expectations of future events. If a country consistently maintains a high GDP growth rate, it can create an expectation of future currency appreciation. This expectation can prompt investors to buy the domestic currency in anticipation of future gains.
The influx of investors seeking to capitalize on anticipated currency appreciation can drive up demand for the currency in the short term, contributing to its strength. However, if the actual economic performance deviates from these expectations, it can lead to rapid changes in currency value.
6. Political Stability:
A strong GDP growth rate can reflect a stable political environment and effective governance. Political stability is an attractive feature for foreign investors, as it suggests a reduced risk of abrupt policy changes, social unrest, or economic upheaval. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment tend to flow into politically stable countries.
As foreign investors commit funds to these countries, they typically convert their currencies into the local currency. The resulting increase in demand for the domestic currency can lead to appreciation. However, political stability is just one aspect, and economic fundamentals and global events can also influence currency values.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term Effects:
While the positive relationship between GDP growth and currency value is plausible in the long term, short-term fluctuations are common due to various factors. For instance, sudden shifts in economic data, geopolitical events, or global economic conditions can lead to short-term deviations from the expected relationship.
The relationship between GDP and currency value is a multifaceted one that involves a delicate balance of domestic and international factors. While a higher GDP growth rate can generally contribute to a stronger currency in the long run, the real-world scenario is influenced by a myriad of factors. Policymakers, investors, and analysts must consider the holistic economic landscape to understand the complex dynamics at play. The interplay between GDP and currency value underscores the intricate nature of the global economy and the continuous adjustments required to navigate its complexities.
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IMPORTANCE OF COMBINING TIMEFRAMESA trader usually works on a strategy that is strictly tied to one timeframe. This timeframe is used to determine the trend direction and search for strategy signals. Alexander Elder proposed to perform additional analysis and confirm the trend movement on two more timeframes of higher order. This technique was first described in his work, called "Elder's Three Screens". Combining timeframes was designed to:
• Increase the winrate
• Improve the accuracy of entries
Alexander Elder suggested adding one more chart with a higher timeframe to the trading timeframe to get an overall picture of the trend and determine its direction. And to look for entry points into trades on the third screen with the smallest timeframe.
Theoretically, the trend matching on two higher timeframes increases the percentage of profitable trades. Moving the strategy algorithm to a smaller timeframe reduces the size of stop-loss and recorded losses.
For example, a trader analyzes the general trend on a daily chart and determines its direction. Let's assume that the currency pair is growing the price is above the moving average MA (200).
According to the rules of the strategy, it is necessary to go to the 4-hour chart and wait for the confirmation of the trend on this timeframe. The currency pair price should also rise above the MA (200).
After the combination of trends on D1 and H4, it is necessary to wait for a similar signal on M15 or M5. Then it will be possible to look for an entry point into a trade to buy according to the strategy.
The practical results of combining timeframes according to Elder's strategy are of little value. Even if the general trend on the daily chart is upward, different price movements can occur on a lower timeframe, for example, on a 15-minute or 5-minute chart.
Despite the global trend of the oldest American stock index, only 50% of days over the last 30 years closed above the closing price of the previous day. It turns out that the ever-growing Dow index has an even distribution of positive and negative days. In the Forex market, in general, we can also expect a roughly even distribution, especially if we take into account the range nature of the currency market, i.e. the accuracy of the Elder filter from the higher timeframes works 50/50. Therefore, relying only on the trend of the higher timeframe is not recommended for intraday traders (day traders). However, if this kind of signal filtering gives you psychological confidence, you can use this tactic. Psychology and emotional comfort are an important component of trading.
✴️ How To Reduce Stop-loss And Increase The Efficiency Of Trading Strategy By Combining Timeframes
There is another approach of combining timeframes in trading, which is found in the works of Tom Dante. This tactic is based on Dante's work and allows you to combine several timeframes using structural analysis of price movement. Instead of simply filtering signals, the trader looks for matching patterns on different timeframes, which can indicate more reliable entry points into the trade.
Increasing winrate and reducing stop-losses can be achieved by using a strategy that works equally well on different timeframes. For example, Price Action is ideal for these requirements. As in the classic Elder strategy, everything starts with analyzing the general trend on the D1 chart. Only the trader is busy looking for support/resistance levels, key candlestick formations and other Price Action signals.
In the example below, there is a level breakout on the D1 chart. If the trader decides to go short, the stop loss should be behind the candlestick high or at the nearest resistance level from the broken line.
Then you can move to the 4-hour chart and look for structural support or resistance levels that can confirm the overall trend. And on the H1 chart, you can look for confirmations to enter the trade in the form of candlestick formations or other technical indicators.
This way, you combine information from multiple timeframes to more accurately determine when to enter the market. It is not recommended to go below the hourly chart if D1 has become the starting point for combining timeframes. A trader can also simplify the combination strategy to two timeframes, for example, D1 and H1.
In the example above, the H1 chart shows a bounce from a broken level, which can be used as a signal to open a short. In this case, the stop loss will be just above the local maximum of the hour candles, which is much smaller than the stop loss on D1.
✴️ Combining the D1 timeframe with H1 enables the trader to:
• Reduce stop loss and increase the order lot;
• Increase profit by using take profit to close the position, which is set on the D1 chart.
Stop Loss on H1 allows you to increase the profit/risk ratio by times when trading on D1. Without combining timeframes, risk and profit would be 1 to 1 or at least 2 to 1.
✴️ Let's summarize the simple rules of structural analysis of the strategy of combined timeframes:
1. Find a pattern on the D1 timeframe
2. Move to H4/H1 and wait for a signal using the same strategy
3. Open a trade according to the rules of the strategy on H4/H1
4. Set Stop Loss on H4/H1
5. Set take profit on D1
✴️ Conclusion
It is worth noting that the proposed strategy will require additional Price Action skills. Searching for patterns requires great attention and patience to wait for confirming signals on each timeframe. However, this approach can improve the accuracy of entries and reduce the probability of false signals. Risk management is the most important aspect of timeframe combinations. When using lower timeframes, you can determine more accurate stop loss and take profit levels based on the higher timeframes. This helps to reduce risk and increase potential profits. Like every new strategy, the idea of combining structural market analysis requires practice on a demo account to find more appropriate trading systems and to practice correlating signals.