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Choch Entry & Liquidity Model | Trading Strategy Introduction: The trading strategy "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" has emerged as an innovative model in the financial domain, focusing on market entry and liquidity. This approach is built upon key principles aimed at maximizing returns and effectively managing risk. Fundamental Principles: The strategy relies on an entry approach known as "Choch Entry," which is presumed to provide precise trading signals based on specific indicators. This method aims to capture significant price movements through a detailed analysis of market data. Liquidity Management: Another distinctive element of this strategy is its focus on liquidity. The "Liquidity Model" seeks to optimize order execution, ensuring that the strategy can enter and exit the market efficiently, minimizing slippage and price impact. Practical Implementation: The practical implementation of this strategy requires a thorough understanding of financial instruments and indicators used in the model. Traders must be able to adapt the strategy to changing market conditions and constantly monitor key variables to make informed decisions. Risks and Challenges: As with any trading strategy, it is crucial to understand the potential risks and challenges associated with the "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" strategy. Market volatility, sudden changes in economic conditions, and other factors can influence outcomes. Conclusions: The "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" trading strategy represents an intriguing approach that combines targeted entry with careful liquidity management. Its effectiveness depends on the trader's proficiency in consistently and flexibly applying key principles, adapting them to the changing dynamics of the market.

Education

by EdgeTradingJourney

How to Analyse Forex Market Trends and Make Informed Trading Dec The Forex market (FX), or foreign exchange market, represents a vast and dynamic space in which currencies are traded daily. Serving as the largest financial market in the world—trading in the Forex market reached US$7.5 trillion per day in April 2022, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BLS)—the Forex market delivers clear and actionable trends for seasoned traders and investors, though for the uninitiated these trends can appear confusing and unpredictable. Consequently, possessing accurate knowledge and analysis tools to analyse market trends and make informed trading decisions is key. FX Market Movers Everything begins with the central banks and their guidance in the FX space. Well-known central banks include the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE); major central banks play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Monetary policy—altering the money supply—can significantly influence exchange rates and help establish long-term trends; when a central bank refers to monetary policy, it tends to be in the direction of increasing/decreasing the overnight target rate, which can make it more expensive (or less expensive depending on the rate move) for commercial banks to borrow reserves from one another in the overnight market. For the US, the target range for the Fed funds rate is set eight times a year, reflecting the FOMC's (the Federal Open Market Committee is the policy-making arm for the Fed) assessment of the economic conditions and their desired monetary policy stance. Ultimately, commercial banks decide whether to borrow at the Fed funds rate based on their own needs and the prevailing market conditions. If banks have sufficient reserves at the central bank, they may not need to borrow, even if the Fed funds rate is low. The Fed conducts open market operations (OMOs) to influence the supply of reserves in the banking system. By buying or selling Treasury securities, the Fed can increase or decrease the amount of reserves banks have, thereby affecting the availability of funds for lending. Recognising central bank projections and their guidance helps highlight possible trend reversals or can help indicate a resumption in current trends. For example, a central bank echoing a hawkish vibe (expected to raise rates) could see increased demand for its currency, and vice versa for a dovish setting. Economic data such as inflation (CPI and PPI, for example), growth (Gross Domestic Product ) and unemployment are pivotal to understand and often move FX markets in the short term; this is what the central bank policymakers follow to help decide monetary policy. Central banks determine the longer-term trend, while economic indicators influence shorter-term price movement (this action can either be in line with the longer-term trend or against the trend ). Out-of-consensus economic data tend to move markets most, particularly those that reach/exceed the upper and lower range estimate limits. Geopolitics, of course, is another noteworthy market mover and one that can be difficult to trade. Wars, political unrest and pandemics create uncertainty for traders: geopolitical risk. When all three are aligned, that is, central bank guidance/expectations, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation, this is where solid trending markets can occur. How to Make Informed Trading Decisions? How one elects to assess the trending structure in the Forex market will be unique to each trader. Some choose to focus their efforts solely on technical analysis; others prefer the comfort of merging both technical analysis and fundamental analysis (macroeconomics – as above) to create trading ideas. Many professional traders use macroeconomic market analysis to help answer the question of what to trade: what market is likely to see a trend reversal over the next few months or a trend continuation? Technical analysis is used to help answer the question of when to trade, representing the study of historical price action, technical indicators and volume. As a basic (hypothetical) example, assume that the Fed is closely monitoring inflationary pressures, which, according to the latest data, hit 5.0% in the twelve months to December 2025. With markets and economists indicating inflation could continue to rise in 2026, the Fed is widely expected to keep raising the Fed funds target range. Fast forward to January’s inflation number, which was expected to rise by 5.2% but instead surpassed median estimates and rose by 5.8%. A release such as this, knowing that the Fed is watching for further inflationary pressures, increases the chances of the Fed raising the Fed funds target range at its next meeting. By extension, this will affect rate-pricing forecasts and could bolster the US dollar (USD) following the inflation release, adding to the (hypothetical) current uptrend that has been in play since the beginning of 2025, when inflation began to rise. So, in this particular example, the macro backdrop could have been an opportunity to join an uptrend or add to an existing long (buy) position. The trigger to indicate when to enter long, however, may have been from something as basic as a technical resistance breach, thus providing a trigger point to enter the market. Therefore, not only would this trade have been backed by having a macro rationale, but also technical evidence. Another example is the current situation as we head into 2024. The markets are gradually switching from a central bank tightening theme that was seen in 2023 to a central bank easing theme. This means that any negative data for the US economy could see the dollar sold off, and this is where traders would then shift to their technical strategy to seek a bearish setup.

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Understanding Initial Jobless Claims as a Market Indicator Introduction In the complex and multifaceted world of economic indicators, initial jobless claims hold a special place. As a measure of the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, this statistic offers a real-time glimpse into the health of the labor market, which in turn is a vital component of the overall economic landscape. This article delves into how initial jobless claims function as an indicator and their impact on the financial markets. Understanding Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims refer to claims filed by individuals seeking to receive unemployment benefits after losing their job. These are reported weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, providing a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. A lower number of claims typically signifies a strong job market, suggesting that fewer people are losing their jobs. Conversely, an increase in claims can indicate a weakening labor market, often a precursor to broader economic downturns. Initial Jobless Claims as an Economic Indicator Health of the Labor Market: The primary significance of initial jobless claims is its reflection of the labor market's health. A steady, low number of claims often correlates with job growth and declining unemployment rates, indicating a robust economy. Leading Indicator for the Economy: As a leading economic indicator, jobless claims can provide early signals about the direction of the economy. Spikes in claims can forewarn of economic contraction, while consistent decreases might indicate economic expansion. Consumer Spending: Since employment directly affects consumer income, initial jobless claims can also indirectly signal changes in consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth. Impact on Financial Markets Market Sentiment: Traders and investors closely watch initial jobless claims to gauge market sentiment. Fluctuations in these numbers can lead to immediate reactions in the stock, bond, and forex markets. Monetary Policy Implications: Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, consider labor market conditions when setting monetary policy. Rising jobless claims can lead to a more dovish policy stance (like lowering interest rates), while decreasing claims might justify tightening policies. Sector-Specific Implications: Certain sectors are more sensitive to changes in jobless claims. For instance, a rise in claims can negatively impact consumer discretionary stocks but might be favorable for defensive sectors like utilities or healthcare. Analyzing the Data Understanding initial jobless claims requires context. Seasonal factors, temporary layoffs, and unique economic events (like a pandemic) can skew data. Analysts often look at the four-week moving average to smooth out weekly volatilities for a clearer trend. Conclusion In conclusion, initial jobless claims serve as a crucial barometer for the economy and financial markets. Investors, policy makers, and economists alike monitor these figures for insights into labor market trends and the broader economic picture. As with any indicator, it's essential to consider jobless claims in conjunction with other data to fully understand the economic landscape.

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WHAT IS A SWAP IN FOREX MARKET?All participants in forex trading sooner or later leave an open position overnight. Most often, beginners do not have access to impressive sums of money as initial capital, so they actively use leverage. Although it carries a lot of risk, it gives an opportunity to earn good money trading currency pairs in a relatively short period of time. Around midnight, changes occur in the client's account: a certain amount is debited or credited, which is called "swap." What is it, and is it worth being afraid of? What is a Swap? Traders whose position has not been closed overnight are sure to ask the question: What is swapping on Forex? Some believe that it is a guarantee of loss; others see it as an opportunity to earn. Each currency, whether it is the American dollar, Japanese yen, or euro, has its own central bank, which sets the interest rate. This rate is the determining value for granting loans to other financial institutions. For example, Japan's central bank sets the interest rate on the yen at which other banks in the country are lent. When trading begins in the market, a position is opened for a currency pair, one of the components of which is Japanese money. At the same time, the interest rate of the Bank of Japan will be valid for the yen on the exchange. The second currency in the pair, let's say the dollar, also has its own rate. The difference between these values will be called a forex swap. Since each country sets its own interest rate for loans, the value between them in a currency pair can be either positive or negative. For example, the Japanese yen is lending at 1% and the dollar at 0.5%. Then an open JPY/USD position can bring 0.5% profit from the deposit amount if it is held for a long time. If you swap the components of the currency pair, you will get the same value but with a negative sign. Swap accrual occurs at night, i.e., after the end of the trading session. This means that those who are engaged in scalping or intraday trading do not face this concept at all. Other traders see its impact on the account every day. What is a forex swap, in simple words? It is the difference in a currency pair between the interest rates that banks set. Traders often use it in trading and can sometimes make a significant amount of money in a short period of time. An important point: the use of leverage is a guarantee that a certain amount of money will be charged or debited to the account. Otherwise, trading is done without the use of loans and deposits, which, although it reduces risks, does not eliminate them altogether. Why Do Overnight Swaps Occur? An open position in the forex market is typically held for a few minutes, hours, or, in some cases, days. When a trader holds an open position beyond the end of the trading day, they need to roll it over to the next day. This process is called an overnight swap. The purpose of overnight swaps is to ensure that open positions are settled at the end of each trading day, allowing traders to continue holding their positions and making adjustments based on their trading strategies. How Does An Overnight Swap Work? Perhaps one of the main features of swaps is their occurrence when trading with leverage. That is, there is no such concept for ordinary investment accounts. As soon as leverage is used, swaps appear. Brokers increase their income not only from account commissions but also from the negative difference. Therefore, no one will warn a beginner about the need to close a position overnight so as not to make a loss. Islamic Account Without Swap At the same time, traders have the opportunity to trade with leverage without swap. The so-called Islamic account is used, which can be opened by anyone. According to religious canons, Muslims can not use interest in any activity. A special account was created for them, and not only those who use Islam can apply for it. It is important to realize that brokers do not work for free. If a trading account has a swap, it means that the commission or spread has been increased. Information about this should be found before opening to avoid unpleasant surprises over time. Time Of Swap Setting Traders are often interested in what time the swap is set on Forex. The difference is accrued or written off at night. The exact time of the swap is 0:05. Every night, the servers go to reboot at 24:59. After that, they start working again at 0:05, and at the same time, the swap is calculated. If a trader manages to close a position before midnight, her/his account will remain unchanged with a 100% guarantee. Triple Swap Financial market participants face one more peculiarity of the swap: its triple size. On the night from Wednesday to Thursday, the value multiplied by three is charged or withdrawn from the account. Why does it happen? Conversion on the Forex market takes place in three days. So, the swap value is available for calculation three days after opening a position. On weekends, the difference is calculated, but the forex exchange does not work on weekends. So, it turns out that for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, i.e., three days, the commission should be set on Monday. And since the real commission is paid only after 3 days, the formal calculations fall on the night from Wednesday to Thursday. On different markets, the increased swap can be debited in different ways, but on Forex, the triple size is only on Wednesdays. It is important to take into account the time zone. For some traders, the triple commission is charged on Thursdays due to the time difference. In conclusion, overnight swaps are a critical component of the forex market, enabling traders to hold positions beyond a trading session. Understanding how overnight swaps work and the factors that influence swap rates can help traders make informed decisions when trading currency pairs. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment

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TRADER'S CREDO The world of trading is filled with risks, challenges, and opportunities. As traders navigate the ups and downs of the markets, it's essential to have a strong set of principles and beliefs to guide their actions. The Trader's Credo serves as a useful reminder of these core values, helping traders stay focused, disciplined, and committed to continuous growth. The Trader's Credo 1. I am responsible for my actions : As a trader, I understand that my success or failure depends on my decisions and discipline. I will take full responsibility for my actions and their outcomes. 2. I respect the markets: The markets are my ultimate teacher. I will respect their wisdom, learn from my mistakes, and constantly improve my trading skills. 3. I am committed to continuous learning: The world of trading is ever-changing. I will stay up-to-date with the latest market trends, trading strategies, and technologies to enhance my knowledge and success. 4. I practice discipline and patience: Trading success requires discipline and patience. I will follow my trading plan, manage my emotions, and avoid impulsive decisions. 5. I prioritize risk management: The preservation of capital is paramount. I will never risk more than I can afford to lose and adhere to strict risk management protocols. 6. I embrace accountability: I will be accountable for my decisions and accept the consequences. I will learn from my mistakes and use them as valuable lessons for future success. 7. I focus on the process, not the outcome: Trading success is a journey, not a destination. I will focus on the process, enjoy the learning experience, and trust that my hard work will eventually lead to success. 8. I respect others' opinions: The trading community is filled with diverse perspectives. I will respect others' opinions, engage in constructive discussions, and learn from their insights. 9. I strive for continuous improvement: I will never be satisfied with my current level of knowledge and success. I will always aim to improve and grow as a trader. 10. I am committed to ethical trading: As a trader, I will act with integrity and honesty. I will never manipulate the markets or engage in unethical practices. Conclusion The Trader's Credo is a powerful tool for traders looking to develop a strong foundation of principles and values. By adhering to these guiding beliefs, traders can improve their skills, manage risk, and ultimately achieve long-term success in the trading aren

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Identifying a Short-Term Sell Opportunity: CAC 40 Correction Introduction: In the dynamic world of financial markets, staying ahead of trends is crucial for successful trading. Technical analysis serves as a powerful tool for identifying potential opportunities, and currently, the CAC 40 index is exhibiting signs of a correction, forming a wedge pattern that could indicate a short-term sell opportunity. Understanding the Wedge Pattern: The wedge pattern is a common formation in technical analysis that signals a potential reversal or continuation of a trend. In the case of the CAC 40, a wedge pattern appears to be taking shape, indicating a possible impending correction. This pattern typically consists of converging trendlines, with either an ascending or descending slant. Analyzing the CAC 40 Wedge: As of the latest market data, the CAC 40 index is showing signs of a bearish wedge pattern, suggesting that a short-term sell opportunity might be on the horizon. This pattern often implies a decrease in momentum and a potential shift in the prevailing trend. Traders and investors should carefully analyze the following key aspects: Trendline Convergence: Monitor the points where the upper and lower trendlines of the wedge pattern converge. This convergence may act as a significant support or resistance level, influencing the index's future direction. Volume Analysis: Pay attention to trading volumes accompanying the formation of the wedge pattern. A decrease in volume during the pattern formation may suggest a loss of interest or conviction in the current trend, reinforcing the potential for a reversal. Technical Indicators: Utilize relevant technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Averages, to confirm the strength of the wedge pattern. Divergence or confirmation from these indicators can provide additional insights into the market sentiment. Identifying Short-Term Sell Opportunities: Given the formation of the bearish wedge pattern on the CAC 40, traders may consider the following strategies for capitalizing on a potential short-term sell opportunity: Short Positions: As the index approaches the apex of the wedge pattern, consider initiating short positions, anticipating a downward price movement. Set appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Option Strategies: Employ options strategies, such as buying put options or using bearish spreads, to take advantage of the anticipated downward movement while limiting potential losses. Monitor Economic Events: Keep a close eye on upcoming economic events, corporate announcements, or geopolitical developments that could influence market sentiment and potentially accelerate the correction. Conclusion: In the ever-changing landscape of financial markets, traders and investors must adapt to evolving patterns and trends. The identification of a bearish wedge pattern on the CAC 40 index serves as a valuable signal for a potential short-term sell opportunity. However, it's essential to exercise caution, conduct thorough analysis, and implement risk management strategies to navigate the markets successfully.

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🧿How to be a Trader, not a Gambler⛔Hi. ✅Using technical analysis and fundamental analysis at the same time: By combining technical and fundamental analysis, you pay attention not only to the patterns and behavior of price action traders in the past, but also to the fundamental and economic factors that act as the driving engine of market movements (macroeconomics). Together, these two approaches provide greater ability to understand market fluctuations and also create a harmonious relationship between charts and economic factors active in the market, allowing you to determine more effective entry and exit points and make your decisions using Take a more comprehensive and principled view. ✅Mastery of a strategy A strategy for a trader is like a guide to a lost traveler. A trading style helps you stay on track and achieve your long-term goals. With the strategy in sensitive market conditions, you will not get confused and incur irreparable losses. You also analyze your transactions more accurately. There are different strategies in forex, but it is better to have a strategy that you completely trust and that is very efficient and profitable. ✅Accuracy of transactions with risk to reward greater than 1 : A gambler doesn't care when it's the right time to enter a trade. Sometimes the markets do not have the conditions to enter into the transaction and they do not give you a good reward for the risk. Once you have analyzed the market as a professional trader and your entry triggers are activated, you actually have to wait until you can implement the rules of capital management. In these cases, you should watch until the market gives you a risk to reward of 1 to 2 or 3 and the entry is allowed. ✅Capital management As a trader, it is necessary for you to have risk management in trading to preserve your capital. Not using capital management may empty your entire financial account. Gamblers do not care about capital management and they may invest their entire assets in one trade. Therefore, it is better to determine the amount of your loss in each trade and exit when the trade does not go according to your expectations. Of course, loss is an inseparable part of the trading system; If the loss is small, a lesson will be learned from it and it will be helpful in the future. 🔔In the end, regardless of the above, like a gambler, your percentage of success versus loss is 50-50 in each trade, but if you follow the above, you can increase your win-to-loss percentage. __ _______ _____ _________ _______ ______ ______ ______ ______ _____ _________ ________ ❤️If this text was useful for you, please like it and share it with your friends

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by CobraVanguard

Why Markets Will Always Change – 9 Reasons The only thing constant about financial markets is that they change. And since 2007 or so, with the higher availability of trading different instruments and markets world-wide. And not to mention, the ability to go long (buy) and go short (sell). Yes, these everyday possibilities were difficult to find and trade back then. Now I’m speaking my age in the markets. But it’s important to know, the algorithms are changing the game every single year. As long as you’re a trader you need to be able to learn, grow, adapt and evolve with every changing markets. Let’s go into details about WHY the markets are changing… New and Old Traders (Volume and liquidity) Traders are the lifeblood of financial markets. They come in all shades of experience, net worth, strategies and diversity. Each new trader and investor, brings fresh perspectives, risk appetites, and systems. And when they execute, it causes a ripple into the market ecosystem. Similar to the ‘Butter-fly effect’ where one tiny flutter of the wing can cause weather disturbances which could result in a hurricane. This blend of old and new creates a constant state of flux, volume, liquidity and adds their unique touch to the market canvas. New Market Information (Local or international) Information is the bedrock of trading decisions. In today’s hyperconnected world, news, data releases, and geopolitical events can instantaneously ripple through markets. Whether it’s an unexpected earnings report, a geopolitical crisis, FOMC or Central Banks decisions, or a technological breakthrough (like AI). This new information triggers a financial market reaction. New Micro, Macro, and Fundamentals (Unrelated to charts and price) Microeconomic factors include things like: individual company performance. Also think of corporate actions such as mergers and acquisitions. These will also reshape industry landscapes and impact stock prices. Fundamentals include any internal news related or announcement event that is NOT related to price and volume action on a chart. While macroeconomic indicators include: GDP growth with money tightening and injection controls. While Central banks’ decisions on interest rates, inflation rates and monetary policies influence borrowing costs, investment decisions, and market valuations. These also play a pivotal role in market dynamics. As these factors evolve over time, they influence market sentiment (how investors feel on what to buy and sell) And this obviously drives price movements. World Economic Info (Major changes happening) Globalization has interconnected economies in ways unimaginable just a few decades ago. On the one hand we have 6 more countries joining BRICs. Which is showing the political war and dynamic change between the East and the West. Economic trends in one part of the world can have far-reaching effects elsewhere. Trade agreements, currency fluctuations and Forex wars, and shifts in supply chains impact various sectors and industries. And this can also lead to a change in market price, volume and conditions. Also, when one event kicks in there is a domino effect. And this can trigger a cascade of events that reverberate across financial markets worldwide. Sentiment (How the overall feeling is) Psychological factors like fear, greed, and uncertainty can drive sudden market movements. Market sentiment is often reflected in buying and selling volumes. When investors and traders are feeling optimistic and positive – they buy and hold. When they are feeling down and negative (about positions) – they sell and short. High volume with buying or selling can indicate strong conviction – for other investors. While low volume might signify uncertainty. This ebb and flow of market participation led to constant changes in market trends and patterns. Then there are other reasons that financial markets are constantly changing including: Technological Advancements (At an accelerating rate) As the world evolves and technology compounds at unprecedented levels, we will see innovations in: Trading platforms Algorithms new instruments & markets high-frequency trading New AI related trading bots Better chart pattern recognition plugins Improved automatic trading developments. And emerging technologies can change existing business models in a way they can make them obsolete to totally transform them. These will all influence market behaviour of demand and supply with investors and traders. Which will cause a shift and change in price and volume. Regulatory Changes (Boring but inevitable) Also, rules. Rules, regs and legs are always updating and changing. This will also alter trading practices, liquidity, price movement and market structure. Political Uncertainty (Fun times ahead for the world) The rate the world is separating and joining forces in all different ways, there is change coming to the financial markets. With the EU having control over 27 countries economies. With BRICs adding another 6 countries to theirs. With other countries breaking away from the US dollar. While other companies and countries are switching and adopting more to crypto and AI. The very foundation of politics and control is changing under our very eyes. And this will definitely have a major shift in economic directions as well as on the markets. Natural Disasters and health disasters (Brace yourself and keep your masks) From Global Warming, to less resources available to mind. From catastrophic events, floods and droughts. These can all disrupt supply chains, impact production, and affect the prices of commodities and goods. And then financial markets and prices, will all be affected. And what about pandemics? If we have another COVID-19 type event, this will once again create rapid shifts in consumer behaviour. And this will have a major impact and ripple throughout companies, industries, countries and essentially the world markets. FINAL WORDS: You can clearly see, why financial markets will always change. And as markets continue to shift and adapt, the only constant is change itself. So it’s our job to adapt or die. Embrace it, learn from it, love it and enjoy the process along the way. It means, this journey and income generating source will NEVER get boring. It can ONLY get better (well we can be optimistic to think that). Let’s sum up why the financial markets landscape will always change… New and Old Traders (Volume and liquidity) New Market Information (Local or international) New Micro, Macro, and Fundamentals (Unrelated to charts and price) World Economic Info (Major changes happening) Sentiment (How the overall feeling is) Technological Advancements (At an accelerating rate) Regulatory Changes (Boring but inevitable) Political Uncertainty (Fun times ahead for the world) Natural Disasters and health disasters (Brace yourself and keep your masks)

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✨❄️🌟 The Tutorial How-To Find a Magic on TradingView Financial markets just finished its memorial 2023. Whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years. In November and December, 2023 the U.S. stock market was rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row. This was the longest ever upside streak in SP:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003. Well.. just try to answer what happened with the market the past one time. Happy New 2024 Year! ✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠

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02:28

by PandorraResearch

HOW-TO Discover and Harness the Potential of the Dividend Market Dividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright, in accordance with CME Group @CME_Group Q3'23 Equity Insights Report. Dividend futures combined Q3 ADV reached 5.1K contracts, and OI averaged 284K contracts (+5% vs. Q2 2023). Over 77K contracts have traded since the launch of Annual Dividend Index futures on Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX and Russell 2000 TVC:RUT , which allow market participants increased options to manage U.S. dividend risk, especially as year end approaches. Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market 👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. 👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. 👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. 👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. 👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement. The index resets to zero on an annual basis. 👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Point Index (Annual) as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Representation of S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) over the past 5 years. Dividends points are to be collected through the calendar year, and reset to Zero on an annual basis Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures CME:SDA1! calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. 👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. 👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. 👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. 👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. The Universe of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures with expirations dates over the next several years Understanding the Difference between 'Today' and 'Tomorrow' using S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures, or what is CME:SDA1! and CME:SDA2! Futures contracts 👉 CME:SDA1! is a Front S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for current (in this time - 2023) calendar year. 👉 CME:SDA2! is a Next one S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for the next one (in this time - 2024) calendar year. 👉 The difference (futures spread) between front and next one can give an expression to traders and investors. 👉 Macro conditions are good, and U.S. economy is doing well, so futures spread values are below Zero (expected dividend points for next year are bigger rather current). 👉 Macro conditions are bad and U.S. economy is getting worst, so futures spread values are above Zero (expected dividend points for next year are lower rather current). 🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!

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by PandorraResearch

Updated

Trading BTC : Dunning Kruger Effect 🐸Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a good and profitable trader? Have you wondered how long it will take before you would have mastered the art f trading? Myself and Dunning Kruger will let you in on a little secret - the journey of pretty much every person that has ever started trading is explained in the chart above. The Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge (in a given intellectual or social domain) greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general. This happens in trading all the time. In fact, we probably all started there if we're being honest . So - What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect? Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another. Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities. This also relates to their ability to judge how well they are doing their work, hobbies, etc. The Dunning-Kruger effect results in what’s known as a double curse : Not only do people perform poorly, but they are not self-aware enough to judge themselves accurately—and are thus unlikely to learn and grow. So how can we prevent ourselves from falling into this trap? Here's a few things to keep in mind: To avoid falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, you should honestly and routinely question your knowledge base and the conclusions you draw, rather than blindly accepting them. As David Dunning proposes, people can be their own devil’s advocates, by challenging themselves to probe how they might possibly be wrong. Individuals could also escape the trap by seeking others whose expertise can help cover their own blind spots, such as turning to a colleague or friend for advice or constructive criticism. Continuing to study a specific subject will also bring one’s capacity into a clearer focus. 💭Practice these habits to ultimately escape the double curse: - Continuous learning. This will keep your mindset open to new possibilities, whilst increasing your knowledge over time. - Pay attention to who's talking about what. Is the accountant talking about bodybuilding? - Don't be overconfident. This is self explanatory. I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up 👌 _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck

Education

by CryptoCheck-

Updated

Never trade on news. Everything is hidden in the price action !Everyone was looking for ETF confirmation to get long. But the market turned red! US SEC grants approval for spot bitcoin ETFs - RTRS but the market moved against expectations. This is why we say never trade with fundamental news. Everything is hidden in the price action. Bitcoin had reached the ceiling of the channel and also our indicator had given a short signal. So, contrary to all positions, we opened the shorts and had fun!

Education

Understanding Leveraged Shares A day ago, I released the " Leveraged Share Decay " indicator for those who trade or invest in leveraged shares. What the indicator does is it tracks the consistency of returns and the rate of decay of a leveraged share against its benchmark. Leveraged shares tend to be seen as "risky" and grouped into the "option-esque" category of trading. From my experience trading them, I would greatly disagree with that notion, as I find it much easier and more enjoyable to trade leveraged shares than to trade options. However, in this post, I want to outline some of the facts of trading leveraged shares and how they work. So, let's get started! What is a leveraged share? A leveraged share or leveraged ETF is an ETF that aims to increase exposure to a specific underlying asset. For example, UPRO aims to return 3 times the amount of the S&P. So, in theory, if the S&P were to return 10%, UPRO should return 30% (3 x 10). How it does this is by using instruments such as options and futures contracts to leverage the exposure to the underlying asset. Of course, this comes with some risks, such as if the ticker goes against you as well as the costs involved in the management and labor of such a task. Let's take a deeper look at how leveraged shares work by looking at UPRO: UPRO is the 3x bull leveraged share of the S&P 500. Compared to SPY, it tracks it very well. The average drift (the amount the share may vary in cost compared to the underlying) is about $1 after 10 days, but peaks at a max of around $3 after 252 (1 trading year) days. This means the decay you can expect to experience holding UPRO for 1 year is about a $3 decay per share. Let's say you entered a UPRO position on January 9th, 2023. At the time, UPRO was about $34.62. Let's say you bought 100 shares at $34.62, for a total entry cost of $3,462. As of today, you would be up 59.28%, or a net P&L of $1,965. If you had bought SPY, you would be up 21.91%. So let's do the comparison. UPRO is 3X leverage, so we would expect our returns to be 3 X 21.91%. To do this, we simply convert the percentages into a decimal place by dividing by 100, then add. So here is the math: 21.91% / 100 = 0.2191 59.28% / 100 = 0.5928 Assuming that UPRO is 3X spy, we would need to multiply SPY by 3: 0.2191 x 3 = 0.6573 Now convert that back into a percentage by multiplying it by 100: 0.6573 x 100 = 65.73% So, our expected return should have been 65.73%. However, owing to the decay, it was around 59.28%, with a loss of around 6.45%. This 6.45% is equal to about a $223.30 loss of our initial investment ($3,462 x 6.45% = $223.30). Considering we bought 100 shares, that would be about $2.23 per share, well within the indicator’s prediction of decay. Now, it's unfair to view this as a loss or "decay" in some circumstances because you are essentially paying for a firm to manage the exposure of the share to the S&P. So this "cost amount" can actually be viewed as a cost of labor, no different than paying a management firm to manage your portfolio for you. That said, leveraged shares, as investment mechanisms, are only good as investment mechanisms when the markets are good. Let’s take a look at what would have happened if we would have invested in UPRO on March 14th, 2022, during the 2022 bear market decline: This would be a total of 457 trading days, or roughly 2 trading years. At the time, UPRO was $52.06. If we did 100 shares at $5,206, we would just be recovering now, vs. us having bought SPY, we would be up 11.90% now: So what happened here? Volatility. And this is why, I think, people draw the comparison between options and leveraged shares, because if the trade goes against you for a prolonged period of time and a very dramatic fall, the share is going to decay like mad. What causes this is often referred to as “Beta Slippage.” It is a compounding effect of daily rebalancing in leveraged exchange-traded funds. This happens because, as indicated before, in order to gain the exposure they do, leveraged shares hold derivatives such as options and futures contracts to increase their exposure to the underlying asset. To understand Beta Slippage, let’s use a made-up example. We have share X, at a value of $40, which has a 2X leveraged bull share, Y, at a value of $8. You buy 100 shares of Y for a total of $800. The next day, X goes up 10%, and your position goes up 20% (2 x Bull). You now have $160 in profit, for a total value of $960. You don’t sell because you believe it will go up an additional 20%. However, over the coming days, X falls about 9.5%. This would translate to a 19% fall on Y (9.5 x 2). If we do the math: $960 x 19% = $182.4 960 – $182.4 = $777.6 You now have $777.6, which is less than your initial investment. This is the compounding effect. What if you just invested in the underlying? $40 x 20% = $48 $48 x 9.5% = $43.44 So, had you invested in 100 shares of the actual underlying, you would still be up $3.44 per share. The bright side: The bright side to this is, beta slippage is much easier to account for, track, and calculate with leveraged shares vs options. The phenomenon happens with both instruments, but it's much more nuanced to calculate with options. When does Slippage show up? It can show up as soon as the same day if the decline or rise happens starkly and fast enough, but in general, if you are picking a stable ETF like UPRO, it tends to be noticeable at 30 to 50 days: In the example above, I picked a period consisting of 30 days where SPY was whipsawing like mad. For the most part, UPRO remained fairly stable until day 30 when you can start to see slippage appear. For example, SPY was able to fill the gap (first blue circle) at $447.71, but UPRO failed to fill its gap. SPY then broke above the immediate resistance at $448.71; however, this same resistance on UPRO was not broken. If we look at the decay tracker indicator, we can see as time passes, not only does the drift in price variation increase but also the slippage increases: A mention of inverse leveraged shares I think it’s important to mention inverse leveraged shares. They are viewed, generally, as riskier than bull leveraged shares, and, to an extent, this is true, but not for the reasons you may be thinking. Inverse leveraged shares are victims of the same mathematical and compounding faults as their bullish counterparts, no more and no less. The main risk associated with inverse leveraged shares is the perma-bull thesis, i.e., stocks only go up. And this thesis has proved pretty factual, especially towards the end of 2023. That said, I have personally held inverse leveraged shares (specifically, SPXS) for roughly 6 months, from April till September during the 2022 decline when I was targeting 350 on SPY. The end result? Some decay resulted, but I still gained just over 40%. There was a little stint where, despite SPY not going up as high as it did before, my position still went red (see chart below): But quickly recovered. This actually was a wakeup call to always set a trailing stop and take profits when you’re up! I was too confident there. But besides that point, you can see that it did work out holding it a bit longer term. That said, if we look at SPY vs SPXS using the decay tracker, here are the results: We can see that there is substantially more slippage on SPXS vs UPRO. Why? Because of the compounding factor. SPY has been in a massive uptrend since October, constantly pushing up and up. This compounds the losses on an inverse leveraged share and increases the slippage with the wild up moves followed by very little pullback. And that is the danger of inverse leveraged shares because you are fighting against a predominant market mantra, ONLY UP, NEVER DOWN. Alternatives to Leveraged Shares The only alternative to leveraged shares is for those who are non-citizens of the country whose stock they want to trade (in this case, the USA) who can invest in US equities via CFDs and other currency-hedged stocks. For example, I myself am currently holding MSFT CAD Hedged (TSX:MSFT), S&P 500 Equal weight (TSX:EQL), and NASDAQ 100 (TSX:QQEQ.F). I also have holdings in the US equivalents, but as I build the position, I add to the CAD hedged as it permits me to increase my size owing to the cost difference. These exist in many other countries and do the same thing. However, if you are in the US, they are not available because of tax regulations, so your option is to do the underlying or the leveraged shares. Let’s just look at MSFT (NYSE) vs MSFT (TSX) using the leveraged share indicator: Not too shabby, huh? To find which other countries have a currency-hedged version, simply type the ticker into Tradingview’s search bar, and it will come up with the country flag: Conclusion: So, are leveraged shares right for you? Well, that’s a personal question, but I hope that you learned how to assess whether or not a leveraged share is right for you with the information provided. In general, these are the things you should absolutely, 100% think about before investing (key word is investing, not day trading; investing implies holding for greater than 2 to 3 months) in leveraged shares: 1. The overall decay that has historically happened with the leveraged share; you can use the indicator I released to help you figure that out, as well as some of the calculations I employed in the post (mind you, the indicator does it all for you ;). 2. The expected volatility of the market. You can gauge this by looking at historical volatility indicators and also the VIX. The fear and greed index are also helpful as well. 3. Whether your entry price is good or bad. This is something that comes with time and experience as a trader, but I can give you an example of a bad entry for me and why I chose to invest in MSFT CAD hedged as opposed to the leveraged counterpart NYSE:MSFU: I entered on that candle. You may think it’s a good entry and perhaps it's not the worst entry, but the fact is, things are pretty over-extended on tech and it could go bad really quickly. A more ideal entry would have been: There. But alas, you have to work with what is given when it comes to investments most times. Though I can’t complain since I am still holding MSFT shares I bought in 2022 at around $242 haha. Not all leveraged shares are created equal, some are awful *cough* BOIL *cough*, others are great (i.e. UPRO). Make sure you are checking its historic performance, I cannot stress this enough!! Also, if you are interested in a deeper look on this subject, @SpyMasterTrades did an excellent video explanation of the dangers of leveraged shares, you can view it below: And those are my thoughts! Hope you enjoyed; leave your comments/questions below and, as always, safe trades!

Education

by Steversteves

How To Make Money With Crypto Trading Bots We are at the beginning of a huge crypto bull run when it is possible to make millions of dollars with strong altcoins. So how is it possible to know if an altcoin strong or it is weak? Look at the community around the altcoin you want to profit with. I prefer to count the traffic which comes to its official website first. Is the traffic rising or it is falling? Also look at the altcoin's twitter and discord. How people react to the news. Do they write many comments or not? But the most important thing is which funds have invested into the altcoin. Lets look at the biggest gainers from the previous bull run. I remember Solana, THETA, Polkadot, Cosmos etc. I prefer altcoins which were funded by Tier 1 funds. At least one or two (there are only 22 Tier 1 funds in the market now). After that I look at the chart. I don't want to buy altcoins that are already overpriced. One of the best examples of altcoins I have found for accumulation for the future bull run is APTos. It is not very expensive, have the great community, valuable traffic to its official website and so on. We will need to find 10 - 15 altcoins like APTos to make our millions of dollars. And I will help you to find the most profitable ones. The best way to accumulate an altcoin I have found is starting a position with a grid trading bot. It is the most simple yet very powerful tool you can use to get as much altcoins as possible before it is not too late. Why I prefer to use grid trading bots? Because these bots can accumulate literally "free" altcoins for me. Here is how I use grid trading bots. First I need to define the range for trading and second - how many orders will trading bot have. And with APTos the low price for the trading is $ 3 and the high one is $ 25. The number of open orders are 100. And the profit is 0.72% ~ 7.16% per grid. So what is the goal? The trading bot should return to me all the money I invested and also it should give me a certain number of APT coins before I close it. After that I can start a new trading bot position with the USD the bot have made for me and keep APT coins for the bull market to sell at the best price. Do you like the strategy I use to accumulate strong alcoins for the crypto bull run?

Education

WHAT ARE Fakeouts, Shakeouts and Whipsaws?YOUR QUESTION ANSWERED! What on earth are Fake outs, Shake outs and Whipsaws? After this you will know… Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) A fake-out occurs when the price of a market appears to break out of a certain chart pattern. This could be a trendline, support, or resistance level. But then quickly reverses and retreats back within the pattern. Shake-out: (Where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) A shake-out is a scenario where the market becomes highly volatile and the price moves rapidly to levels that trigger the stop-loss orders of many traders. Stop-loss orders are pre-set risk levels at which traders automatically exit their positions to limit their losses. A shake-out is designed to “shake out” weak or inexperienced traders from the market. When stop-loss orders are triggered, it can create a temporary spike in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. Once these traders are “shaken out,” the market might resume its original trend. You’ll see this most commonly with low liquid, high volatile markets like Penny Stocks or Penny Cryptos. Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day). Whipsaw refers to a situation where the market quickly changes its direction within a relatively short period, often during a single trading day. This can cause confusion and losses for traders who are caught off-guard. Whipsaws can occur due to various factors, such as sudden news releases, economic data surprises, or changes in sentiment. They are characterized by sharp price movements that can make it difficult to make accurate trading decisions. Whipsaws are especially common during periods of high market uncertainty or when there’s a lack of a clear trend. Let’s create a quick summary of the three: Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) Shake-out: (where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day). If you have any trading question let me know in the comments

Education

The Role of Geopolitical Risks in Forex Trading In the complex world of forex trading, a myriad of factors contribute to the ever-shifting landscape of exchange rates. Among these, geopolitical risks stand out as potent catalysts capable of triggering significant fluctuations in currency values. This article delves into the intricate relationship between geopolitical events and forex markets, exploring how political instability, conflicts, and trade disputes can impact exchange rates. What Are Geopolitical Risks? Geopolitical risks encompass a broad spectrum of factors that have the potential to disrupt the global economic order. From political instability and armed conflicts to trade disputes and diplomatic tensions, these risks can send shockwaves through financial markets. Traders navigating the forex landscape must grapple with the uncertainty emanating from geopolitical hotspots worldwide, which means understanding profoundly how geopolitical risks impact forex markets. Geopolitical Impact on Forex The primary conduit through which geopolitical events influence currency fluctuations is the introduction of uncertainty. This uncertainty, in turn, triggers a surge in market volatility. Effective forex trading with geopolitical risks means not only reacting to these events but also anticipating and positioning strategically, leveraging the volatility to a competitive advantage. Reactions of Different Currencies to Geopolitical Events Various types of geopolitical events affect forex currencies differently. Currencies of nations heavily reliant on commodity exports, such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, can be particularly sensitive to disruptions in global trade or commodity markets as such events may lead to supply chain issues and, respectively, to currency depreciation. Emerging market currencies often exhibit heightened sensitivity to geopolitical events because traders view these currencies as riskier assets and respond to geopolitical uncertainties by divesting from them. Consequently, geopolitical tensions may lead to depreciations in the currencies of emerging markets. Currencies within the Eurozone are influenced not only by global geopolitical events but also by dynamics within the European Union (EU). Political developments affecting EU member countries may impact the euro, requiring traders to consider both global and regional factors when assessing potential currency movements. You can visit FXOpen and try trading the forex markets on our free TickTrader trading platform. Safe-Haven Currencies and Geopolitical Uncertainty In the turbulent waters of geopolitical uncertainty, certain currencies emerge as beacons of stability and safety. These so-called safe-haven currencies play a crucial role as investors restructure their portfolios. The US dollar, often considered to be the quintessential safe-haven currency, tends to strengthen during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The global economic influence of the United States, coupled with the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, positions it as a go-to currency for investors seeking stability. The Japanese yen is another currency that historically attracts investors during geopolitical turmoil. Japan's reputation for economic stability and the predictable monetary policy of its central bank, coupled with its current account surplus, makes the yen an appealing asset. The Swiss franc also stands for financial stability and neutrality. Switzerland's commitment to maintaining a stable and resilient financial system positions the franc as an attractive choice for investors seeking shelter during geopolitical storms. The Swiss franc typically experiences appreciation when global uncertainty rises. Market Sentiment Impact How geopolitical risks affect forex also has a lot to do with the way market sentiment and risk appetite play out in the aftermath of major geopolitical news. For example, the resolution of a trade dispute or political stability in a previously uncertain region may make traders more optimistic. This optimistic outlook translates into increased confidence in riskier assets. This renewed risk appetite often leads to a surge in demand for higher-yielding currencies, such as emerging market currencies or those linked to commodities. As a result, these higher-yielding currencies may appreciate. Conversely, negative geopolitical news has the opposite effect, triggering a flight to safety among investors. Historical Examples of the Relation Between Geopolitical Events and Forex Markets Let’s examine several historical examples of major currencies being affected by geopolitical events and decisions. Brexit: The Unravelling of the European Union The United Kingdom's decision to exit the European Union, commonly known as Brexit, unleashed a wave of uncertainty about the British pound (GBP). In the lead-up to the referendum and its aftermath, the GBP/USD currency pair witnessed significant swings, dropping sharply on the day on which it became clear that the majority of Britains opted to leave the European Union. The uncertainty surrounding the terms of the exit and the potential economic consequences for the UK led to a depreciation of the British pound. US-China Trade Tensions: A Global Economic Flashpoint The protracted trade tensions between the United States and China, characterised by ongoing negotiations, tariff changes, and trade restrictions, had a profound impact on forex markets. The Chinese yuan bore a direct impact, particularly during the period from mid-2018 to early 2020. During this timeframe, the trade tensions between the United States and China escalated significantly, marked by the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory measures, leading to the depreciation of the USD/CNH pair, as seen on the chart. Middle East Conflicts: Geopolitical Turmoil and Regional Currencies Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have historically contributed to volatility in regional currencies. One illustrative example is the Syrian Civil War (the Syrian conflict) and its devastating impact on the Turkish lira (TRY). The uncertainties arising from the conflict, coupled with the influx of refugees and economic challenges in the region, contributed to considerable fluctuations, while the intense phases of the Syrian conflict in 2015 initiated an ongoing depreciation for TRY against the US dollar. Conclusion Geopolitical risks are inherent in the modern world, and their influence on financial markets is undeniable; therefore, traders need to stay aware of the potential impact of these significant events and learn how to trade with geopolitical risks. Already have a promising trading strategy? You can open an FXOpen account and try out new trading possibilities. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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VOLATILITY IN THE FOREX MARKET Hello Forex traders. Today we are going to talk about the concept of Volatility in the Forex market. We will talk about what it is, what volatility depends on, and most importantly how we can use this data to build and improve our own trading strategies and, as a result, get more profit from trading. What Is Volatility? Volatility is the range of price changes from high to low during a trading day, week, or month. The higher the volatility, the higher the range during the trading time period. This is considered to be a higher risk for your positions, but it gives you more opportunities to earn money. Volatility can be measured over different time periods. If we open a daily chart and measure the distance from high to low, we will get the volatility of the day: It turns out that on the chart above, it was 121 pips. We can also measure on another timeframe, for example, weekly chart. The distance from the high point to the low point was 162 pips. The total volatility during the week was 162 points. Volatility can be measured within a trading session or within a trading hour. This allows us to conclude that it is a fractal value. As a rule, the average volatility for the last candles is taken into account. If we take daily charts, the average volatility is usually considered for the last 10 days. Roughly speaking, the last 10 candles are summarized and divided by 10. What Does Volatility Depend On? It depends on the number of trades in the market, players, trading sessions, the general state of the economy of a currency, and, of course, on speculation. It depends on how speculative the market is about a given currency. Note that volatility can be measured both in points and in percent. But it should be noted that most often, the volatility of stocks is measured in percent. In forex, it is more usual to measure in pips. If you are told that the average price change of EURUSD is 0.7%, you can easily convert it into pips. And vice versa, you can calculate percentages from points if you need them for any research. Now let's move on to the most important question. How To Apply Volatility Data For Profit? It's actually quite simple. As they say, everyone knows about it, but no one applies it. This is especially true for intraday trading. Nobody wants to apply the simplest rule. Suppose you know that the average volatility of GBPUSD is 120 pips. Question: if the price has moved up 100 pips from the beginning of the day, should you open a buy position? The answer is obvious, we should not. Because the probability that the price will go up another number of pips is too low. Therefore, we should not open a buy position and on the contrary, we should focus on bearish positions. But for some reason people forget about this simple technique and follow their system. I believe that it is absolutely necessary to include volatility, at least on intraday strategies, in your checklist for market entry. The same can be done with higher timeframes. Let's imagine that we know that GBPUSD has an average weekly volatility of 200 pips. If the pair has moved 50 pips since Monday, we can expect that if the price continues to move down, there is a potential of about 150 pips. Of course, there are days when some movements become bigger or smaller, but we try to rely on statistics. With its help we can calculate the sizes of stops and take-outs. If we decided to be guided by the volatility data and open a sale on the pound, then we would try not to put a large (relative to the weekly timeframe) take profit. Because our expectation within the week is 150 pips. If the average volatility of a pair is 200 pips, it is silly to expect 1000 pips move. At least within a week. Thus, volatility can also be used for risk calculations. If you have opened many positions on different pairs, you can calculate what will happen if all stop-losses are triggered. Of course, the market is not obliged to obey your calculations, but it gives some support for your convenience and trading. Volatility-based Indicator The first indicator is ATR Average True Range indicator invented in 1972. It shows the average volatility and it is used most often to set targets and stop losses. The value of the indicator is multiplied by a multiplier and thus calculate the stop loss or and/or take profit. The calculations will automatically change depending on the current volatility. Volatility is higher, take profit becomes higher. Volatility is smaller and take profit becomes smaller. The next indicator is the CCI It is based on average price and moving average data. It is used as an oscillator, that is, when it is in the oversold zone, it is recommended to buy. And when it is in the overbought zone, it is recommended to sell. Another indicator, which is known to everyone, is Bollinger Bands They consist of a standard moving average and a moving average plus and minus standard deviation, which is calculated based on price. These bands are used most often to determine the limits of movement from the standard average. We can draw conclusions based on this indicator about the end of the movement, correction, etc. Conclusion In this article I have tried to give you an understanding of what volatility is in the forex market and most importantly how we can apply it in our trading. I hope that it will help you in developing and adjusting your own trading systems. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment

Education

How to find Crypto Winners?I list here historical performance of major cryptos againts BTC, not many performing well against BTC. So the question: how to find crypto winners and is the past performance quarantee about the future? How do you approach with rising number of new coins?

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INTUITION IN TRADING Why is it that when you feel that you should buy and you buy, the price goes down, and when you feel that you should sell, but do not open an order, the price immediately and sharply goes down? Murphy's Law? What should I do with my inner voice? Should I tell it to shut up or listen to it? In various sources, one can often find completely opposite opinions about the role of intuition in trading. Some say that only a systematic approach can bring success, while others, on the contrary, claim that it is impossible to achieve significant results without a "sixth sense". Who is right? Many people are interested in this question and we can make the most adequate conclusion: "Intuition is worth using, but only after you have gained experience of more or less successful trading within a year or two". Let's think for a second. How can a person who has no experience as a construction worker take a look at a house and immediately realize that there is "something wrong" with it? You can't. The person simply does not have enough experience, he is too poorly informed about the subject to make any judgments. There is a wonderful book by Malcolm Gladwell called Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. It deals in great detail with the "Thin-slicing Theory", what we call Intuition. I suggest you read it. So how to apply intuition in trading? The answer is simple. At first, gain experience by trading according to a mechanical system, without using any judgments like "I feel it, we are about to fall" or something like that. And only then, when you have an insight, be sure to check it with the help of technical analysis. Having found confirmation of your intuitive guess, you can already take some actions. In fact, there is even a book written on this topic, it is called "Trading from Your Gut". It is written by one of the "Turtles", Curtis Faiths. There is not so much information in this book specifically on the use of intuition, but there are a couple of useful thoughts. The less fear, the better intuition works. Perhaps this is the reason why it is so easy to make thousands of dollars on a demo account and so difficult on a real one. When trading on a demo, we release the full potential of our brain, because nothing limits our freedom, because the money is virtual and there is no fear of losing it.

Education

As Inflation Retreats, How Will Equities Perform in 2024?During the 1990s and again in the 2010s, equity and bond investors celebrated a goldilocks economy. GDP and employment growth were solid and core inflation remained comfortably around 2% per year despite increasingly tight labor markets. That scenario was occasionally interrupted, notably by the tech wreck recession in 2001, the 2008 global financial crisis, and most recently by the pandemic-era surge in inflation. But by late 2023, inflation appeared to be coming down globally. Comparing the annualized inflation rates during the six months from December 2022 to May 2023, and the six months from June to November 2023, inflation rates have fallen sharply in every major economy (Figure 1). Figure 1: Core inflation rates are falling rapidly worldwide Source: Bloomberg Professional (CPI XYOY, CACPTYOY, UKHCA9IC, CPIEXEMUY, JPCNEFEY, ACPMXVLY, NOCPULLY, CPEXSEYY, SZEXIYOY, NZCPIYOY) Granted, things still don’t feel great for consumers, who appear to be less sensitive to the rate of change in prices than they are to level of prices which remain high and are still climbing, albeit at a slower pace than before. Nevertheless, it appears that the main drivers of inflation -- supply chain disruptions (Figure 2) and surging government spending (Figure 3) -- subsided long ago. Supply chain disruptions sent the prices of manufactured goods soaring beginning in late 2020. Depressed pandemic-era services prices initially masked the surge in inflation, but services prices began soaring as the world reopened in 2021 and 2022 driven by surging government spending, which created new demand but no new supply of goods and services. Since then, however, supply chain disruptions have faded despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with little impact thus far from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Moreover, government spending has rapidly contracted as pandemic-era support programs have expired despite some increases in spending related to infrastructure and the military. As such, not even the low levels of unemployment prevailing in Europe, U.S. and elsewhere appear to be sustaining the rates of inflation witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Figure 2: Supply chain disruptions drove inflation in manufactured goods in 2020 and 2021. Source: Bloomberg Professional (WCIDLASH and WDCISHLA) Figure 3: U.S. government spending has fallen from 35% to 22.6% of GDP Source: Bloomberg Professional (FFSTCORP, FFSTIND, FFSTEMPL, FFSTEXC, FFSTEST, FFSTCUST, FFSTOTHR, GDP CUR$, FDSSD), CME Group Economic Research Calculations U.S. core CPI is still running at 4% year on year but its annualized pace slowed to 2.9%. What’s more is that in the U.S. most of the increase in CPI has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent, which imputes a rent that homeowners theoretically pay themselves based off actual rents on nearby properties. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, inflation in the U.S. is back to 2%, its pre-pandemic norm (Figure 4). Figure 4: U.S. inflation is much lower when excluding home rental Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg Professional (CPI YoY and CPI XYOY) Moreover, inflation in China has been running close to zero in recent months and has sometimes even shown year-on-year declines. In China, real estate grew to be as much as 28% of GDP, and the sector is now rapidly contracting. China’s year-on-year pace of growth for 2023 looks solid at around 5%, but that’s not too impressive given than the year-on-year growth rate compares to 2022, when the country spent much of the year in COVID lockdowns. By the end of 2023, China’s manufacturing and services sectors were both in a mild contraction, according to the country’s purchasing manager index data. If growth doesn’t improve in 2024, China may export deflationary pressures to the rest of the world. That doesn’t mean that the are no upward risks to prices. If the Israel-Hamas war broadens and interrupts oil supplies through the Suez Canal, that could reignite inflation. Moreover, green infrastructure spending, rising military spending, near-shoring as well as demographic trends in places like South Korea, Japan, China and Europe that limit the number of new entrants in the global labor market could potentially keep upward pressure on inflation. For the moment, however, any inflationary impacts from geopolitical or demographic factors appear to be overwhelmed by the usual set of factors keeping inflation contained including technological advancement and large labor cost differentials among nations. So, what does this mean for investors? As we begin 2024, fixed income investors are pricing about 200 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 24 months, and the S&P 500 is trading close to a record high. Be warned, however, interest rate expectations have been extremely volatile over the past 12 months, oscillating between expecting rate hikes to rate cuts by as many as 200 bps or more (Figure 5). If we continue to see strong employment and consumer spending numbers combined with weakening inflation numbers, this may keep rate expectations caught in a volatile crosscurrent. Figure 5: Investors price steep Fed cuts but rate expectations are extremely volatile Source: Bloomberg Professional (FDTRMID, FFZ15...FFZ25), CME Economic Research Calculations Moreover, while equities did well in 2023, their rally was narrow, driven by only a handful of large tech and consumer discretionary stocks, while most other stocks including small caps were largely left behind. Finally, the stock market itself isn’t cheap. The S&P 500 is trading at 23.37x earnings and the Nasdaq 100 at 59x earnings. As a percentage of GDP, the S&P 500’s market is still close to historic highs. Finally, even with 2023’s rally, the indexes are trading at basically the same levels at which they ended 2021 (Figure 6). Part of the reason stocks did so well in the 1990s and 2010s is that they started out those decades cheap. The same cannot be said of the starting values for 2024 (Figure 7). Figure 6: Nasdaq and S&P 500 are near end of 2021 levels but the Russell 2000 lags behind Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, NDX and RTY) Figure 7: Going into 2024, equities aren’t cheap like they were in 1994 or 2014 Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, GDP CUR$, USGG10YR). If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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Understanding Technical Indicators Trading indicators are essential tools for traders and investors to analyze and interpret financial market data. These indicators, derived from mathematical calculations based on price, volume, or open interest, etc, aid in visualizing market trends, momentum, and potential reversals. They serve as an additional layer of analysis, offering a structured and objective way to understand market dynamics. Understanding Trading Indicators 1.1 Definition : Trading indicators are graphical tools derived from price, volume, or open interest data. They help in identifying market trends, momentum, volatility, and possible trend reversals. 1.2 Types of Trading Indicators : Trend Indicators : These indicators, such as Moving Averages (MA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Ichimoku Cloud, help in determining the direction and strength of market trends. Oscillators : Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measure overbought and oversold market conditions. Volume Indicators : Indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) use trading volume data to confirm price movements. Volatility Indicators : These, including Bollinger Bands and Average True Range (ATR), assess the degree of price fluctuation in the market. Utilizing Trading Indicators 2.1 Trend Following Strategy : This approach involves capitalizing on the continuation of established market trends. Indicators like the Fourier Smoothed Stochastic (FSTOCH) help detect and follow these trends, providing smoother signals and filtering market noise for more accurate decision-making. 2.2 Mean Reversion Strategy : Contrary to trend following, mean reversion strategy focuses on price corrections when they deviate significantly from historical averages. The Bollinger Bands Percentile (BBPct) is a mean reversion indicator that uses Bollinger Bands to identify potential price reversals, indicating when an asset is overbought or oversold. Comparing Trend Following and Mean Reversion 3.1 Key Differences : Direction : Trend following identifies and exploits established trends, whereas mean reversion focuses on price reversals. Risk Profile : Trend following is typically higher risk due to the challenge of timing, while mean reversion is considered less risky as it banks on imminent price corrections. Market Conditions : Trend following excels in trending markets, while mean reversion is more effective in range-bound or sideways markets. 3.2 Combining Strategies : Using both strategies together can provide a more comprehensive market view and reduce reliance on a single approach. Mean reversion indicators can confirm trend reversals identified by trend-following indicators, while the latter can help avoid premature exits in mean reversion trades. Binary and Discrete Indicators 4.1 Binary Indicators : These indicators, like the Alpha Schaff, offer clear, binary (yes-or-no) signals. They are ideal for straightforward decision-making, indicating when to buy or sell. 4.2 Discrete Indicators : Unlike binary indicators, discrete indicators, such as the Average-True-Range, provide a range of values, offering more nuanced insights into market conditions. The Importance of Using Both Types of Indicators Combining binary and discrete indicators equips traders with a broader perspective on market conditions. While binary indicators provide clear entry and exit points, discrete indicators offer detailed insights into the strength of market trends and potential turning points. This combination enhances decision-making by enabling traders to cross-reference signals and identify high-probability trading opportunities. Conclusion : In the dynamic world of finance, trading indicators are invaluable for providing insights into market trends, momentum, and conditions. Utilizing a combination of trend following, mean reversion strategies, and both binary and discrete indicators, traders can develop a comprehensive and effective toolkit for navigating financial markets successfully.

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Happy New Year 2024| Learn Our Methods | Read Description|Happy New Year Everyone 2024: Let's first talk about CHFJPY then we will talk about how you can improve and learn some tips. CHFJPY in last six or seven months price overbought heavily due to JPY poor performance and government's zero intention to interfere in the market. However, many reports suggests that JPY will likely to be rebound in first quarter of 2024 in this case we can see a strong shift in price characteristics. Our first entry indicates, that we should expect price to continue the bearish momentum and drop from current area of the price. However, as we will having NFP in the first week of the month, it is likely to see some unexpected movement in the market. Second entry, is when price fill the gaps in the market and then drop smoothly, we will keep you updated. We want all of you to succeed in the forex or commodities trading. Here how you can improve: Firstly find one or two pairs that suits you: meaning if you focus on every single instruments available to trade in the market, you will never succeed instead focus on one or two pairs and master them, know how and when these pairs move, what factors influence them in the market and trade swing highs and lows. Secondly, use longer time frames to have a better vision, have a longer vision which will help you catch the big moves, yes, it is time consuming but if you are beginner then focus first in this and then along the way you will learn intraday trading. Lastly, learn more about consolidation, accumulation and distribution: before the big reversal, price first will consolidate then accumulate and distribute, you should be looking to enter in phase of accumulation and take every enter when price consolidate which leads to a breakout. If you learn above information in details and practice, your chances of becoming a successful trade increase. There is no overnight success, it is all hard work, if you believe in your self and focus on above things you will one day be proud of yourself. Happy New Year and Trade Safe 2024. We wish all of you all the best. Team Setupsfx_

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Updated

Market Algo or pain trades I was reading another trading book today and much like watching the dumb money movie the other day, it prompted me to write another post. So, you may have heard the expression "the market is an Algorithm" whilst this is somewhat true, it's actually more a sequence, Ralph Elliott, Richard Wyckoff and Edward Jones knew this. In simple terms, the larger operators or what's known as sophisticated money - chase liquidity pools that are often areas Dumb Money have taken entries or placed stops. Now if it was as simple as this, you could simply write an indicator or be on the winning side 100% of the time. Unfortunately, there's a lot more to it! When I say the smart kids are taking the dinner money of the dumb kids, you need to appreciate the fact that winning whilst playing against retail traders is like putting the Patriots against your local under 12's side. Or like having the New Zealand All Blacks play against an old people's home in Pakistan. (I am not sure if Pakistan even have a 1st team in rugby). To gain some understanding, you need to appreciate there's such a thing as "pain trading". A "pain trade" refers to a situation in financial markets where a significant number of investors or traders find themselves on the wrong side of the market, leading to losses or discomfort. In other words, it describes a scenario in which the market moves in a way that causes the most amount of pain or financial losses to the largest number of participants. For example, if a majority of traders are positioned for a market to go up, a pain trade would be a sharp and unexpected decline in prices, catching those traders off guard and causing them losses. The term reflects the idea that markets often move in ways that inflict the most damage on the greatest number of participants. Understanding pain trades is important for investors and traders, as it highlights the potential risks of crowded trades and the importance of risk management strategies to mitigate unexpected market movements. Investors and traders often use various indicators, market sentiment analysis, and risk management techniques to try to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a pain trade. (Thanks ChatGPT for the summary). ====================================================== So take a company like Carvana for example... This type of move happens over and over again - creating cycles (But not always the same). In this image above you can see it's likely to have swept long stop losses and then rallied hard. You probably know about the Gamestop Saga. I wrote a post on that film recently. I talked about being on the wrong side - I can't get over how someone could be up $500,000 and still go broke? But it's all in the mindset. Liquidity is the name of the game. How do these things fit together? Well, Bitcoin is a prime example - retail mindset is "HODL, Buy the Dip, Diamond hands & Lambo" - whilst as a professional trader, it's enjoying your profits and buying/selling at the expense of the dumb money. These moves are shown as the last post, buy momentum. Here is the summary image from that post. Since we had a move up - retail seem to think it's up only, they seem to put all the eggs in the hope Blackrock and a halving will make them rich... I have read articles like this recently. After watching the Dumb Money film - you know where following the crowd goes. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is this an important lesson? It's all to do with pain, where is the maximum pain? Retail sentiment would suggest pain comes in the form of little movement, grinding prices in up moves and fast aggressive drops. Some context from Blackrock themselves: What is Blackrocks Biggest ETF? So again, let's add a little logic. Where is liquidity sitting? If and it's a big if - Blackrock get an ETF approved and it's half the size of their biggest ETF to date, let's then assume Retail flood in and match it dollar for dollar. That market cap would still put us roughly at the current ATH, given coins in circulation. This again just amplifies, why we are simply - NOT READY, YET!!! The move I didn't want in 2022, looks to be the biggest liquidity grab we are likely to see in the Bitcoin chart. We are very, very likely still in an A-B move up for the slow pain of coming back to build sustainable momentum. Have a Happy New Year all! Stay safe and see you in 2024! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

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