WHAT IS ATR AND HOW TO USE IT?Investing and trading in the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to the game. With so many different indicators and metrics to consider, it can be difficult to know which ones to focus on. One key metric that traders often use to measure market volatility is Average True Range (ATR). In this blog post, we’ll explore what ATR is, how it’s calculated, why it’s important for analysis, and how it can be used as an exit strategy. We’ll compare ATR with other popular technical indicators as well, so you have all the information you need to make informed decisions about your trading strategies.
Defining ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is an important metric used by traders to measure market volatility. It’s a technical indicator that can provide insight into strength or weakness in the markets, and can be used to identify breakouts and set stop-loss points for trades.
ATR is calculated as an exponential moving average of true range values over a given period. True range is defined as the maximum of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close. This calculation provides a more accurate reading than simply measuring one day’s trading range or attempting to track changes in individual stock prices.
ATR values are generally presented in decimal form (e.g. 0.1 or 0.3) rather than percentage form (e.g. 10% or 30%). This allows for more precise measurements when tracking market movement, which can be especially important for day traders who need to act quickly on market changes and opportunities.
Traders use ATR to gauge overall market volatility as well as individual stock movements over time; it can also be used for trend identification and momentum strategies when combined with other technical indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger bands. And because ATR takes into account both recent highs and lows, it can also help traders set stop-loss points for their trades – at least until they become comfortable enough with markets to make decisions without them.
Whether you’re new to trading or seasoned professional, ATR is an invaluable tool that should be incorporated into your analysis strategy if you want to stay ahead of markets and take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.
How to Calculate ATR
In conclusion, ATR is a valuable tool for traders and investors alike. It helps measure market volatility and can be used to set stop-loss points as well as combine with other technical indicators to get a more accurate picture of where the markets are headed. Understanding and employing ATR can help traders become better informed about their investments, allowing them to make more informed decisions when entering or exiting positions.
Analyzing ATR in Trading
When it comes to analyzing the markets for trading decisions, Average True Range (ATR) is an invaluable tool that helps traders gain insight into market volatility. By understanding how ATR works, investors can measure the current conditions of a stock or index in comparison to its past performance, allowing them to identify trends and set stop losses accordingly. It also provides them with an effective exit strategy so they can take advantage of opportunities while minimizing their risk exposure. Ultimately, having a good grasp of this indicator will allow traders to make more informed decisions when engaging in securities markets globally.
Using ATR as an Exit Strategy
Using ATR as an Exit Strategy Average True Range (ATR) is a powerful technical indicator that can be used to measure market volatility and identify trends. It can also be employed as an exit strategy in trading, allowing traders to determine when the best time is to exit their positions and take profits or minimize losses. When using ATR as an exit strategy, it is important for traders to set the parameters for their strategy correctly. The most common approach is to set a multiple of ATR for both profit taking and stop loss levels. For example, if a trader sets the multiple at two times ATR, then they will take profits when the price moves by two times the average true range from their entry point and cut their losses if it moves against them by two times the average true range. In addition to setting up these parameters in advance, traders should also consider any potential rewards and risks associated with using ATR as an exit strategy. On one hand, it can help protect capital from large losses due to quick market movements, but on the other hand, it may cause traders to miss out on larger gains if prices move further than expected. There are various types of ATR-based exit strategies that traders can employ. Some of these include: fixed percentage or dollar exits; trailing stops; dynamic exits; time-based exits; or support/resistance exits based on chart patterns or technical indicators such as moving averages. Each type of strategy has its own advantages and disadvantages depending on market conditions so it is important for traders to understand which one will work best for them before implementing it into their trading system. Finally, traders should look at real-world examples of profitable trades made using ATR as an exit strategy. By studying these examples they can gain insight into how successful trades were managed and use this knowledge when formulating their own strategies going forward. With enough practice and experience, traders will eventually become adept at using ATR as part of their trading system and be able to capitalize on profitable opportunities more effectively in future investments.
ATR vs Other Technical Indicators
Average True Range (ATR) is a technical indicator used to measure market volatility and identify trends. Unlike other indicators, ATR measures the degree of price movement instead of the strength or weakness of a trend; this makes it ideal for spotting trading opportunities in volatile markets. Compared to indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), ATR offers traders a greater understanding of market volatility so they can more easily recognize good entry and exit points.
In addition, ATR allows traders to set stop-loss points that are tailored to their individual risk tolerance levels. This helps them reduce losses when prices move against them but still provides an opportunity for profits if prices turn back in their favour. Ultimately, ATR is not meant to be used as an isolated indicator when making decisions about trades, but combining it with other indicators will improve accuracy when entering and exiting positions.
Overall, ATR is a powerful tool designed for those looking to gain insight into market volatility and make informed decisions about their trades. By using this indicator in combination with others, such as RSI and MACD, traders can better understand the kind of environment they are working with which can help them maximize profits while minimizing losses.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Fundamental Analysis
16 Trading Mistakes you’re still MakingIf you’re still failing as a trader.
You could be making one or more of these common and lethal mistakes.
#1: No Structured Approach
If you’re not following a structured approach to evaluate potential trades, you’re likely to make mistakes.
It’s essential to have a well-defined plan that takes into account your personality, risk tolerance and trading goals.
#2: You trade on Emotions
Trading decisions should be based on facts and analysis, not emotions or hunches.
If you’re relying solely on your gut feeling, you may miss important information and make poor trading decisions.
Trust the chart not your heart. (I like that!)
#3: Not researching each market per strategy
Even if you have a trading strategy, you need to research, back test and forward test EACH market to see if they are conducive with your trading.
For example. I have traded Forex since the get-go and yet the EUR/USD (Euro Versus US Dollar) is still the one currency that NEVER works for my system.
This is the kind of research you should know, before you make a trade or risk a trade.
Lack of research can lead to costly mistakes and missed opportunities.
#4: No Specific Trade Setup
It’s important to identify a specific trade setup before making a trade.
You need to determine and pinpoint your exact entry and exit points, stop loss level, and price targets volume and margin requirements.
#5: Not waiting for your high probability setup
It’s important to wait for a clear trade trigger before making a trade.
This way you’ll know what the right market, at the right time is and what you need to do to minimize your risk and maximise your profit potential.
#6: Not putting in your stop loss
When you trade you need to remember something.
You need to set your stop loss to limit your losses.
You need to set your stop loss to follow a plan.
You need to set your stop loss to prevent an emotional reaction to your trading where you can take significant losses.
Always, always always set a stop loss level with each trade and stick to it.
#7: Setting a tight stop loss
If you set your stop loss level too close to the entry price, it will increase your chance of getting stopped out.
It’s important to set a stop loss level that considers market volatility and your risk tolerance.
#8: No clear exit price target
Yes, a stop loss is more important than a take profit price.
But a take profit price is VERY important when it comes to following your Risk to Reward strategy.
You need to set the take profits so you can calculate your potential gains, to lock in gains and to have a mechanical plan to follow in the future.
#9: Forgetting your Reward-to-Risk Ratio
If you ignore your risk to reward level rule with trading, you might as well give up trading.
The key is to always make sure that your potential gains are more than your losses.
If you ignore your risk to reward you will make poor trading decisions and your performance will not be stable and consistent.
These are losing traits.
#10: You forget the anomalies!
There are times where you might need to exit out of a trade prematurely.
There are other market conditions that are wile and can impact your trade negatively.
Whether they are black swans, market announcements, threats, dangers, fat fingers or even news events.
Don’t forget to consider the anomalies to reduce a catastrophe.
#11: You buy however much you want on margin
When you trade derivatives you need to remember.
You will be exposed to more money than what you deposit.
You can LOSE way more money that you anticipated if things don’t go your way.
You need to seriously understand the risks involved with margin and gearing trading before you even commit to trading derivatives.
#12: You don’t diversify
Some traders ONLY trade one index or one currency or one commodity.
I believe this is not very good for the future.
There are times where these markets enter into a stagnant period for months upon months on end.
You need to find a way to diversify and trade a few more markets, to make up for the dangers of idling markets.
It’s important to diversify your portfolio and spread your risk across multiple markets.
#13: You chase the next best penny thing
Chasing ‘hot’ penny stocks or penny cryptos is lethal.
You’ll end up emotionally involved in them and you’ll find every reason (fundamentally and technically) to hold on because they are going to the moon.
Remember, you need to research the markets that work with your trading strategy over at least 5 years.
Any other markets, are dangerous and can lead to you blowing your account.
#14: Not Emotional control
Not managing your emotions appropriately and making impulsive trading decisions can lead to poor outcomes.
When you lose you’ll feel like it’s the end of the world.
When you win, you’ll feel you have trading down and life.
Problem is these uppers and downers with trading will have an effect in your life negatively and will end up with you making very emotionally driven and triggering trading decisions.
Then POOF. All will be gone.
It’s important to stay calm and focused when making trading decisions.
#15: No Trading Journal
What are you basing your success on?
A strategy you don’t even have proof whether it works or not.
If you are Not using a trading journal to track your trades and evaluate your strategy over time, it can lead to a losing performance, unnecessary losses, missed opportunities for improvement and will leave you blinded to your potential.
It’s important to keep a record of your trades and evaluate your performance regularly.
#16: Not Learning from Mistakes
Trading is a forever learning journey.
You need to learn from EVERY mistake you make and move on.
If you don’t learn you’ll continue to have a poor performance.
It’s important to evaluate your mistakes and make changes to improve your strategy. Maybe even document every trading mistake you make in your trading journal.
This way you’ll reflect and work on them for the future.
Was that helpful?
Wise words from Buffett’s annual letterWarren Buffett, often referred to as the "Oracle of Omaha," is one of the most successful investors of all time. His investment philosophy, centered around value investing and long-term growth, has transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a sprawling conglomerate, encompassing a diverse range of businesses from insurance and utilities to railroads and retail. Buffett's shrewd investment strategies and unparalleled business acumen have made Berkshire Hathaway a powerhouse in the global economy, and himself a beacon of wisdom in the world of finance.
Warren has been investing through Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) for 58 years, but he ascribes most of his success to remarkably few decisions.
He writes:
“Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire.”
The turbulent swings of the market are utterly engrossing. An overwhelming amount of information and analytics are constantly prompting us to act. However, taking into account Buffett's advice—that only one great idea is needed every five years—can help us understand the importance of every investment decision we make.
This parallels another renowned saying from Buffett, advising us to limit the number of good investment strategies we attempt to execute.
Buffett proposes a '20-slot punch card' guideline: Imagine being handed a card with only 20 holes, each punch representing each investment you could make in your entire life. After all the slots have been punched, you can't make any more investments. Given these constraints, you would be compelled to scrutinize each decision and would tend to invest heavily in what you've deeply pondered. Consequently, your results would significantly improve.
Warren’s letter goes into his ‘secret sauce’ and some of the 12 ideas that have worked for him. Of particular emphasis this year: the compounding of long-term dividend and cash flow growth from his purchases 30 years ago, particularly Coca-Cola (KO) and American Express (AXP).
He writes:
“In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.
The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.
American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.
These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At year end, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.
Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.”
Advice for contemporary investors: Given the resurgence of returns in the fixed income sector, where short-term Treasuries are currently yielding close to 5%, some investors are wondering if equities are now facing stiffer competition. However, these fixed income returns may find it challenging to outpace inflation over time. Unlike fixed income, equities such as Coca-Cola and American Express offer long-term compounding through dividend growth, which is a critical advantage for investors seeking wealth accumulation.
In conclusion , Warren Buffett's investing principles, embodied in his stewardship of Berkshire Hathaway, provide invaluable lessons for all investors. Despite the allure of seemingly competitive returns in other markets, it is essential to remain focused on the long-term potential of equities, particularly those with a robust track record of dividend growth. As Buffett's success has shown, patient investing based on sound understanding and rational decision-making can yield substantial results over time.
Stay tuned for more educational content and subscribe to our channel.
8 Most Important Trading Levels of EntryThere are over 30 different elements you can add to your trading journal.
But if you want to start off light and easier, then there are only a few KEY levels you’ll need to get into your trade and track them.
8 to be exact.
These include:
#1: Market (Stocks, Indices, Forex, Commodities, Crypto)
What market are you trading?
There are many different markets to choose from, including stocks, indices, forex, commodities, and crypto.
Each of these markets has its own unique characteristics, including volatility, liquidity, and risk factors.
When you specify what market you’re trading you’ll know which account to measure your portfolio.
#2: Date of Entry
This information will allow you to track your trades over time and evaluate the success of their strategies.
Also, something not many people think about is when you’re profitable and in the money. It is also useful for tax purposes, as you might need to report your gains and losses to the relevant authorities.
#3: Entry Price
The entry price is the price at which a trader enters a trade.
This information is critical for calculating potential profits and losses, as well as for setting stop loss and take profit levels.
You’ll also know how the market is moving relative to their position and make certain adjustments to your trades (following your strategy) as needed.
#4: Type Buy (Go long) or Sell (Go Short)
The type of trade, whether it is a buy or a sell short, is important because it determines the direction of the trade. If a trader buys a security, they are betting that the price will go up, while a sell short trade is a bet that the price will go down.
This information is important for setting stop loss and take profit levels, as well as for understanding the risk profile of the trade.
#5: Stop Loss (Risk level)
A stop loss is an order to close a trade if the price reaches a certain level.
This is a key risk management tool that helps traders limit their losses in case the market moves against them.
Also, it’s used to lock in profits when the trade is going in your favour.
#6: Take Profit (Reward level)
Take profit is the opposite of a stop loss.
It is an order to close a trade when the price reaches a certain level of profit.
This allows traders to lock in their gains and exit the trade at a predetermined level.
#7: Margin (Initial deposit)
Margin is the amount of money a trader needs to deposit in order to open a position.
This is important because it determines the amount of leverage the trader is using and the potential risk exposure.
By recording the margin requirements for each trade, you’ll be able to monitor your overall risk exposure and adjust your positions if needed.
#8: Reason of Entry
The reason for entering a trade is important because it helps traders evaluate the success of their strategy and make adjustments as needed.
This depends on your trading strategy. Are you trading because of a breakout pattern, Moving Averages, Range bounded, Order blocks, Liquidity Sweeps, Volume Spread analyses or indicator analysis – you’ll be able to jot your entry reason for each trade.
So if you’re new to trading or not worried about the extras when plotting in your journal.
You now have the most important elements of a trading:
Markets, the date of entry, entry price, type of trade, stop loss, take profit, margin, reason.
Hope that helps.
EXPLAINED: Calculation for CFD Brokerage with Anheuser ExampleHow do I calculate the brokerage I'll pay on a local CFD trade?
You’ll need to calculate the brokerage you’ll pay to enter your trade and the brokerage you’ll need to pay to exit your trade.
We’ll first need to lay out all the necessary information to calculate what brokerages you’ll pay…
For this example, we’re going to use a trade example with Anheuser Busch InBev.
And we’ll use the brokerage of 0.30% leg in (entry) and 0.30% leg out (exit) to pay.
Here are all the specifics needed for this trade:
Portfolio value: R40,000
Trade: JSE:ANH
Type: Long (buy)
Brokerage rate in: 0.30%
Brokerage rate out: 0.30%
Entry: R1,184.00
Stop loss: R1,143.00
Take profit: R1,215.00
Calculation #1: Calculating your ENTRY brokerage with CFDs
Step #1: Know what your max portfolio risk is per trade
Max % risk = (Portfolio value X 2%)
= (R40,000 X 2%)
= R800
Step #2: Find out the rands risked in trade
Rands risked = (Entry – Stop loss)
= (R1,184.00 – R1,143)
= R41.00
Step #3: Calculate the number of CFD contracts to trade
No. CFDs = (Max % risk ÷ Rands risked)
= (R800 ÷ R41.00)
= 19.51
SIDE NOTE: We always round down the number of CFDs, so that we risk less than what we choose to risk instead of more.
Therefore, we will buy 19 CFDs in this specific trade.
Step #4: Calculate your ENTRY exposure for the CFD trade
Entry exposure = (Entry price X No. CFDs)
= (R1,184 X 19 CFDs)
= R22,496
Brokerage in = (Entry exposure X Broker rate in)
= (R22,496 X 0.30%)
= R67.48
This means, you’ll need to pay a brokerage of R67.48 in order to buy (go long) 9 Anheuser CFDs.
Now we can move onto the next brokerage leg.
Calculation #2: Calculating your EXIT brokerage with CFDs
Step #1: Work out your EXIT exposure for the CFD trade
Exit exposure = (Exit price X No. CFDs)
= (R1,215 X 19 CFDs)
= R23,085
Step #2: Calculate your brokerage leg out
Brokerage out = (Exit exposure X Broker rate out)
= (R23,085 X 0.30%)
= R69.25
Step #3: Calculate the total brokerage for the CFD trade
Total brokerage = (brokerage leg in + Brokerage leg out)
= (R67.48+ R69.25)
= R136.73
This means, if the trade hit your take profit level you would have ended up paying a total brokerage of R136.73 for your Anheuser CFD long trade.
HOW IMPORTANT IS TIME IN THE FOREX MARKETS 💡⏰📊HELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD ITS MONDAY LOTS OF OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD.
JUST SOMETHING ON TIMING IN THE MARKERT
📈📉📊⌚⏰⏱⏲
Every chart in trading has two axis ie. TIME & PRICE.
The most ignored of this two axis is TIME, now how important is time in trading. Are there some periods during the day that are most volatile than others of cause we all know NEW-YORK session will definitely be more volatile than ASIA or even LONDON sometimes, we know news releases are highly volatile and sessions opens normally see most spikes.
If this is the case why is TIME so underrated in trading or less incorporated in trading.
If you are starting out your Journey in trading you most likely have already invested in patterns ,support & resistance and everything price in the market in excitement watching various economic calendars and trade voraciously on every release of data, viewing the markets 24 hours a day, five days a week. Understanding time will remove this edge to be on charts all day long worse even seeing things that are just not there preventing unnecessary loses.
Unlike Wall Street, which runs on regular business hours, the forex market runs on the normal business hours of four different parts of the world and their respective time zones, which means trading lasts all day and night.
But understanding where you are in this Business will limit a lot of errors and back testing with Time will give you a perception of when your trades take off and what are your High success rate sessions, if you are scalping what are your range bound sessions, what ever type of trader you are time is a crucial aspect in trading.
So according to investopedia When only one market is open, currency pairs tend to get locked in a tight pip spread of roughly 30 pips of movement. Two markets opening at once can easily see movement north of 70 pips, particularly when big news is released.
So understanding this will help in reaching targets timely and reduces anxiety of being range bound in red before your trade takes you out and goes in your direction 😀
Overlaps in Forex Trading Sessions
The most traded & most popular will have to be the U.S./London (8 am. to noon NY TIME): This is the heaviest overlap within the markets with More than 70% of all trades happening when these markets overlap because of moves seen within this markets.
The we have the Sydney/Tokyo (2 am to 4 am NY TIME): This time period is not as volatile as the U.S./London overlap, but it still offers a chance to trade in a period of higher pip fluctuation, and certain pairs tend to be volatile during this certainly especially the once aligned with the sessions, tends to also be great for scalpers as most are range bound during this sessions and scalps can dominate during this sessions without unforeseen spikes 😁
• Last but definitely not least London/Tokyo (3 am to 4 am NY time) This overlap sees the least amount of action of the three because of the time (most U.S.-based traders won't be awake at this time), and the one-hour overlap gives little opportunity to watch large pip changes occur.
But this is the sessions that creates some important key levels to plan the day and execution of trades so no session is less important than the other the out come of each sessions lies with us as traders
• The forex market runs on the normal business hours of four different parts of the world and their respective time zones.
• The U.S./London markets overlap (8 a.m. to noon EST) has the heaviest volume of trading and is best for trading opportunities.
• The Sydney/Tokyo markets overlap (2 a.m. to 4 a.m.) is not as volatile as the U.S./London overlap, but it still offers opportunities
Then we have news Releases that are also based on time, if your strategy is based on capitalizing on news releases you are most likely aware of time and its importance in once trading.
I don't want this to be long so basically what I am saying is you have two axis on a chart, why are you only looking at the price axis, time has to come into playing some how 🤔
Invest in time to limit wasting your time on the charts...
Hope you enjoy this
Leave a comment & like for more atticles like this
REFEREMCES.
Investopedia
The Best Times to Trade the Forex Markets ARTICLE
Volutrades
Timing Is Everything: The Best Times to (and Not to) Trade Forex ARTICLE
ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTS By THE PROP TRADER
ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTS KILLZONES
IF THIS ARTICLE ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
4 EXTRAS to add to your Trading Journal TODAYI’m sure you know by now.
That every successful trader needs a trading journal.
This is an essential tool to track, monitor, evaluate, record, and measure your trading success.
However, I’ve come up with 4 EXTRA Journal Items that you can add to your journal that could help improve your trading, win rate and overall performance.
We can call these the “Trading Journal Extras.”
Let me know if you think any of these will be helpful to add to your journal.
EXTRA Journal Item #1: MY EMOTIONS
Emotional State When Taking Trades
Trading can be an emotional rollercoaster.
When you lose, it feels like everything is out to get you.
When you win, it can feel like you’ve nailed life in a bag and you can do this for the rest of your life.
But what if you actually journaled your emotions?
Every time you take a trade or you bank a loss or gain, document it in a section saying “EMOTIONS.
This element to your Trading Journal can help you identify patterns in your emotional state that may impact your decision-making abilities in the future.
You will also see who you are personally and how you emotionally handle trades. Watch it improve over time.
For instance, if you find that you’re more likely to make impulsive trades when you’re feeling anxious or stressed, you can take steps to manage your emotions before taking trades.
This can help you make better decisions and minimize the risks of impulsive trades.
EXTRA Journal Item #2: MISTAKES LEARNED
Mistakes Made and Lessons Learned
As a trader, you’re bound to make mistakes, and it’s essential to learn from them.
So why not write them down. Incorporate the mistakes you made in your Trading Journal.
This way, it can help you avoid making the same errors in the future.
For example, if you realize that you lost way more than 2% for a trade.
Write down where you went wrong.
Did you over capitalise?
Did you extend your stop loss?
Did you hold on longer than you should (which the costs added up)?
Did you follow your strategy and risk management rules?
Write down the mistake and you’ll have a better chance of avoiding it in the future.
EXTRA Journal Item #3: NEWS REACTION
Market Reaction to News Events
You won’t find this in my journal. But I know many traders who trade using market fundamentals and news analyses.
And if you’re a day trader, Forex trader or a high frequency trader – then this item might be imperative to your trading journal.
The market’s reaction to news events can cause major whipsaws, fakeouts and shakeouts.
You might find it interesting and educational track how the market behaves before and after a news release.
E.g. NFP (Non Farm Payrolls).
Unemployment numbers
Interest and Inflation rates announcements
Quantitative Easing
Earnings Reports and so on…
For instance, if you notice that the market reacts positively to news about a particular sector or asset, you can make an informed decision to invest in that asset or sector.
Similarly, if you notice a trend of negative market reactions to news events, you can use that information to minimize your losses.
EXTRA Journal Item #3: TRADING LESSON
Trading Lessons and Strategies
Finally, as a trader, you must keep learning and growing.
If you learnt something about trading, WRITE it down in a journal entry.
Adding a section in your Trading Journal called LESSON OF THE DAY.
Then record the trading lesson/s and strategies you learnt which can jog back your member and it can help you improve your skills, application and knowledge.
The FOUR extra Trading Journal Entries
A Trading Journal with these EXTRA items can help you excel as a trader.
Thins like emotional state to identify patterns, writing down mistakes to avoid repeating them, tracking market reactions to news events to inform decisions, and recording trading lessons and strategies to continuously learn and improve.
So here’s a sum up of the FOUR EXTRAS that you can apply to your journal.
MY EMOTIONS
Document emotions every time you take a trade or bank a loss/gain
MISTAKES LEARNED
Write down mistakes made and where you went wrong in your Trading Journal
NEWS REACTION
Track the market’s behaviour before and after news releases
TRADING LESSON
Record lessons and strategies learnt that will help with your trading
Let me know if this helps and which out of the FOUR you’ll add to your trading journal?
HOW TO IDENTIFY ORDER BLOCKSHello traders! Today we are going to look at the pattern Order Blocks, what this pattern means and how to trade it.
✳️ What is Order Block?
The largest (from open to close) closest bearish candle to support before a strong impulsive bullish move (last sell candle before the buy candle). The last falling candle before the impulse growth. The high of this candle must be broken by the next candle to confirm it is an order block.
The largest (from open to close) closest bullish candle to resistance before a strong impulsive bearish move (the last buy candle before the sell candle). The last rising candle before the impulsive decline. The low of this candlestick must be broken by the next candlestick to confirm that it is an order block. Order blocks are those areas/zones where financial institutions have manipulated the price and where some of their orders are in drawdown. This "footprint" they are leaving is clearly visible in the order block. Price will usually return to these areas and we will react to this in some way. Order block is a sign of big players in the market.
✳️ The idea behind the pattern and why it works
The movements triggered by big players leave open positions which must be closed. And in order to do that, the price has to test those levels.
Smart money works according to certain algorithms, and we are trying to make money on this. Behind these candlesticks are financial institutions: they deliberately move the market, themselves falling into a drawdown, so they need to return the price to the order block with an imbalance, to reduce losses (to return their open positions to breakeven levels).
Why not close manipulative positions earlier? There is no one to cover them.
When we close large positions, the price automatically moves in the direction of the order block, and it is convenient for the large capital to close the previous manipulated positions, which causes a bounce which we want to jump into. In other words, we find a liquidity gathering point and wait for the return to it.
Order Block is a level to enter or exit.
✳️ Order Block Trading Strategy
Mitigation is a test of a supply/demand area. In our case a block of orders. Closing of old manipulative positions.
1) We are looking for a block of orders.
2) Were the stops pulled out (collecting liquidity, breaking through the obvious highs and lows)? If no, then it is not an order block, let it go. You are not sure? Do not enter.
3) If yes, we consider entering.
A bullish block of orders:
We enter - on price returning to this candle (at least to the high).
Stop - for low.
Take - the nearest level.
A bearish block of orders:
Entry - on the return of the price to this candle (at least to the low).
Stop - behind the high.
Take - the nearest level.
Each Order block can be tested only once.
What is Heiken Ashi and how to use it?Are you looking for a new way to analyze the markets and identify trends? Heiken Ashi is a powerful charting technique that can help you do just that. It provides traders with an easy-to-read visual representation of price movements that can be used to make more informed trading decisions. In this blog post, we'll cover what Heiken Ashi is, why it's so beneficial, how to read the candlesticks, when to use it, and offer tips for trading with it. With this knowledge, traders can use Heiken Ashi to take their trading to the next level.
Definition of Heiken Ashi
Heiken Ashi is a charting technique used to identify trends and smoothen out price fluctuations. It was derived from the Japanese candlestick charting techniques, and it is based on open, high, low and close prices from the previous session. When these prices are averaged, they form Heiken Ashi candlesticks which can be used to analyse market movements. The colors of the Heiken Ashi candlesticks are determined by the relationship of the current open and close prices compared to the previous session's open and close price. If the current open price is greater than or equal to that of the previous session, then a green or blue candle will appear on your chart; conversely if the current open price is less than that of the previous session, then a red or yellow candle will appear. By using this information traders can make informed decisions about when to enter and exit positions in order to maximize profits. Heiken Ashi also helps reduce volatility in comparison with regular Japanese candlesticks as it takes into account both recent and historical information when plotting candles. This allows traders to see a clearer picture of what’s going on in their chosen markets without being overwhelmed by too much noise or irrelevant data points. Additionally, since Heiken Ashi plots values over time rather than simple one-time snapshots like traditional candlestick charts do, traders can use this information to better predict future trends in their chosen markets. Overall, Heiken Ashi is an incredibly useful tool for any trader who wants to accurately identify trends in their chosen markets and make more informed trading decisions based on real-time data analysis. By leveraging its capabilities traders can gain insight into market movements more quickly and accurately than ever before.
Benefits of Heiken Ashi
The Heiken Ashi charting technique is a valuable asset for traders of any skill level. It can help investors easily identify trends, smoothing out the price action to offer a clearer picture of the market. This strategy is especially useful in range-bound markets, where it can signal when trends are likely to change direction.
Heiken Ashi also assists in identifying potential entry points with greater accuracy by recognizing patterns earlier on. In volatile markets, this technique can be even more beneficial as it helps traders prepare for sudden price movements before they occur. By combining Heiken Ashi with other strategies such as Fibonacci retracements and Elliot Wave Theory, traders have a better chance at predicting market direction and making sound trading decisions for increased profits.
Overall, Heiken Ashi's ability to smooth out price action and recognize potential entry points gives investors an advantage in their chosen markets that unassisted candlestick charts cannot offer. With its multitude of benefits, traders of all levels may find this tool very advantageous when trying to achieve success in their investments and trades.
How to read Heiken Ashi Candlesticks?
Heiken Ashi candlesticks are constructed using open, high, low and close prices from the previous session. The colors of the Heiken Ashi candles indicate whether the current open and close prices are higher or lower than the previous session’s open and close price. Red/black Heiken Ashi candles indicate a bearish candle, while green/white Heiken Ashi candles indicate a bullish candle. If the red/black candle is followed by a green/white candle - this indicates an uptrend, while if the green/white candle is followed by a red/black one - it indicates a downtrend.
The Doji candlestick is another type of Heiken Ashi candle which occurs when the opening and closing prices of a session are equal to each other - this typically indicates some indecision in the market. When trading with Heiken Ashi, it is important to always be aware of support and resistance levels as they can help you identify potential entry points in your chosen markets. Support levels occur when there is enough buying pressure to push prices back up after they have dropped below them, while resistance levels occur when there is enough selling pressure to push prices back down after they have risen above them. A break of either support or resistance could signal an impending trend reversal, so traders should always pay attention to these levels when trading with Heiken Ashi.
Finally, traders should also be aware that false signals may appear on their charts due to lagging indicators like moving averages or oscillators; therefore it's important to use additional strategies such as Fibonacci retracements or Elliot Wave Theory in order to confirm any potential trade opportunities before entering them into your chosen markets. With this knowledge about how to read Heiken Ashi candlesticks combined with other strategies like Fibonacci retracements or Elliot Wave Theory, traders can make more informed decisions when trading with Heiken Ashi.
When to use Heiken Ashi?
When it comes to trading with Heiken Ashi, timing is key. The Heiken Ashi technique can be used to identify trends and trend reversals, allowing traders to make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit the markets. It is especially useful in volatile and ranging markets, where traditional analysis techniques may not provide enough information to accurately predict price movements.
Heiken Ashi candles can also help traders identify entry and exit points. By looking at the color of the candles, traders can determine whether a trend is likely to continue or reverse. For example, if the most recent candle is red, indicating a bearish trend, then this could signal an upcoming reversal in price. Similarly, a green candle indicates that the current bullish trend may continue for some time longer. However, it’s important to remember that Heiken Ashi signals should only be used as part of a larger trading strategy; they should not be relied upon alone as they do not always accurately indicate future market direction.
Many traders use additional indicators such as Fibonacci retracements or Elliot Wave Theory in combination with Heiken Ashi candles for even more accurate signals. When combined with other analysis techniques such as support and resistance levels or moving averages, Heiken Ashi can provide valuable insight into potential entry and exit points in any given market. Additionally, traders should pay attention to volume when using Heiken Ashi candles; if there is an unusually high volume on a particular day this could indicate that there are larger players at play who may influence future market direction.
Finally, it’s worth noting that although Heiken Ashi works on all timeframes from one minute up to monthly charts, it tends to be more accurate on longer timeframes such as daily or weekly charts due to its smoothing effect which reduces noise from shorter-term fluctuations in prices. Ultimately however which timeframe you choose depends on your personal trading preferences and goals; so experiment with different settings until you find something that works for your particular situation.
Tips for Trading with Heiken Ashi
Using Heiken Ashi in trading can be a great way to identify and take advantage of market trends. Here are some tips for using Heiken Ashi in trading:
Utilizing Trend Lines: Utilizing trend lines is an important part of trading with Heiken Ashi. When the candles begin to form a pattern, traders should draw trend lines to better understand the direction of the market. These trend lines can help traders identify potential entry and exit points, as well as any potential stops that need to be set.
Pay Attention To Color and Direction: Traders should pay close attention to changes in color and direction of the Heiken Ashi candles. When there is a change in color or direction, this could be an indication of a potential reversal or continuation of a trend.
Multiple Time Frames: Using multiple time frames can help traders get an overall picture of the trend they are looking at. For example, looking at both daily charts and hourly charts may give traders an idea of whether current trends will continue or if they have reached their peak.
Risk Management: Practice risk management when trading with Heiken Ashi. Risk management includes setting stop loss orders to protect against possible losses due to sudden price movements, utilizing proper position sizing according to your current account balance, and keeping emotions such as fear and greed out of your trading decisions.
Setting Stop Loss Orders: Setting stop loss orders can help protect against unexpected losses due to sudden price movements. By setting these orders ahead of time, it allows traders to minimize their losses if the trade does not work out as expected.
By following these tips for trading with Heiken Ashi, traders can use this technique effectively when making more informed decisions about their trades.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Maximise your trading success with market analysisWhen it comes to trading, one of the most important skills to develop is market analysis.
When you know how to read the market and make informed decisions, it can be the difference between spotting high, medium and low probability trades.
Here are some ideas to analyse the market and maximise your chance of success.
Start with the Main Indices
The first step in market analysis is to take a look at the main indices.
These indices, such as the JSE ALSI, SP500, Nasdaq, FTSE100, and others, are a good indication of the overall market direction.
Once you have seen the indices, you’ll get a sense of how the market is moving as a whole, and what kinds of opportunities might be available.
Identify the major Trends
Once you’ve looked at the main indices, it’s time to:
Identify any market trends (Market environment)
If the market is showing a strong uptrend (trend, momentum, moving averages analysis)
Then it’s best to ONLY look for longs or buys.
On the other hand, if your indicators suggest that the market has confirmed a downtrend, it’s best to look for sells or shorts.
Look for Breakouts
Sometimes the market doesn’t confirm an up or down trend.
If you see the market is moving in a sideways manner, there’s still an opportunity to profit.
In this case, it’s a good idea to write down the levels of breakouts you’d expect.
If the market breaks up, you’ll expect longs, and if it breaks down, you’ll look for shorts.
This way you’ll prepare for both outcomes And you’ll be able to capitalize on whichever direction the market takes.
Final Thoughts
Market analysis is a critical skill for any trader to master.
When you start with the main indices, to identify trends, and looking for breakouts, you’ll be able to make informed decisions about your trades and get a good idea of where they’re more likely to head.
Human Vs Machine : Focusing On One Thing In Trading"HUMANS CANNOT IMITATE MACHINE ABILITY. YOU ARE JUST P-?!?!?!?."
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Hey there, fellow Traders! Listen up, 'cause I've got some deep thoughts for you. So, you know how our minds Work, right?.
It's like Focus that Controls everything: how we see things, what we remember, how we learn, how we solve problems, and even how we make decisions. It's like the control center of our Brain!
Now, imagine this: Trading is like a mental marathon, and you need to be mentally fit to win the race. And guess what? Focus is the ultimate key to unlock that mental fitness. Without it, your Trading game will be a total mess. It's like trying to Drive a Car with no steering wheel - you're gonna crash and burn!
But hey, don't worry, it's not all doom and gloom. I've got a joke for you: Why did the Trader lose all his money? Because he couldn't keep his Focus and kept Chasing Shiny Distractions! Ba dum tss!
(no nevermind)
GOING DEEPER AND SERIOUS
Ever wondered why they call it 'focus'? It's because when you focus, you're actually bringing the power of the Universe to converge on a single point in your mind. It's like creating a Black Hole of thoughts that sucks in all your Mental Energy and Compresses it into a laser beam of Concentration.
It's like having a psychic bulldozer that flattens distractions and obstacles in your path, leaving you with a clear mental highway to success. So, folks, let your Mind be the Master of the Universe, and let focus be your Cosmic Superpower in the World of Trading.
AGAINST THOUGHT OVERLOAD
a Thought Overload is like a monkey on caffeine, jumping from one thought to another. It's hard to concentrate when your mind is busy juggling tasks from yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Especially during those long waiting periods when boredom lurks around the corner, your mind craves distractions. So, why not declutter your mind and make it a Zen Master?
Prioritize and structure your day. Give each task its own time slot, and create a special time slot for Trading where you can focus solely on that activity. Say goodbye to irrelevant thoughts that don't serve the task at hand. Keep your mind on a tight leash and don't let it wander off. Remember, less mind clutter equals better Focus, and better Focus leads to Success!
"Life is like a sandwich, the more you add to it, the messier it gets. So, keep it simple, with just the right amount of condiments to savor its taste. Too much, and you'll end up with a soggy mess. Too little, and it'll be a bland experience. Find the perfect balance, and enjoy the deliciousness of life - Me"
MASTERING THE TECHNOLOGY
Technology can be super distracting, you know? Like, you're just trying to focus on your work, but your computer, tablet, and phone keep buzzing and beeping with notifications. Newsletters, voice messages, social media updates, they just keep coming at you like an avalanche. It's like they're all shouting, "Hey, look at me!" It's so hard to resist the urge to check them all the time.
But, here's the thing. If you want to be productive, especially during Trading Sessions, you gotta Minimize those distractions. It's like putting on noise-canceling headphones for your brain. You need to create some boundaries and make those notifications less available. Maybe put your smartphone and tablet on Airplane mode, so you can cut yourself off from the biggest distraction potential. It's like a digital detox for your sanity!
It's kinda funny, though. We live in a world where technology is supposed to make our lives easier, but sometimes it feels like it's doing the opposite. It's like having a super cool gadget that comes with a built-in "distract-o-matic" feature. But hey, we're all in this together, trying to navigate the digital jungle while staying focused on our goals.
So, let's embrace the Awesome potential of Technology, but also be Mindful of its Distractions. Let's put those Notifications on Silent, switch to Airplane Mode, and take control of our Focus. After all, the real "Smart" part of Smartphones and Tablets is the one using them, not the other way around! right?
TRADING LIKE A CHEF, WIZARD, JEDI, AND SORCERER
CHEF : The Secret Sauce of Preparation. Just like a Master Chef preps their ingredients before cooking up a Storm, Successful Traders know that preparation is the key to unlocking their trading prowess. It's like a Secret Sauce that adds Flavor to your performance, giving you an Edge in the Market Kitchen.
WIZARD : The Wizardry of Strategy. Trading is like a Chess game, and your strategies are your moves. But beware, the market is a cunning opponent that's always trying to outsmart you. To win this game, you need to be a Wizard, constantly adapting your strategies and Conjuring up new ones to stay ahead of the game.
JEDI : The Jedi Mind Tricks of Mindfulness. Just like a Jedi, Day Traders need to master the art of mindfulness. It's not just about being present in the moment, but also about using the Force to tap into the Market's energy. Trust your instincts, Read the Signs, and let the Jedi mind tricks guide you to Trading Victory.
SORCERER : The Sorcery of Time Management. Time is the most precious resource in day trading, and successful traders are like sorcerers who know how to wield it. They use spells like FOCUS, discipline, and efficiency to bend time to their will and create a trading kingdom where productivity reigns supreme.
READY FOR BRAIN TRAINING?
There a Cool Exercise to improve your Focus. Grab something interesting to read and set a timer for 30 minutes. But here's the twist: set another timer to go off every five minutes. When it beeps, ask yourself if your mind has wandered. If it has, no worries! Just bring your attention back to what you're reading. This helps strengthen your brain's ability to stay on task and keep your focus sharp, like a ninja!
"Chase your Dreams 🌊✨"
Don't be afraid to dream big, even if your dreams seem far away. We must dare to face challenges, face obstacles, and face uncertainty. We must follow the flow of the waves of life, with determination and perseverance, because it is there that we will find new opportunities and possibilities that we have never imagined before.
ahhh Thank you For Reading, I Love Writing about This, i Hope you Have Something that you Can Learn.
Please Stay Safe and Always Be there to someone you Loved,
Wishyou Profitable Months 😸.
Source Images :
D5000
Gian Cescon
jarmoluk
Image by Freepik
Jan Weber
NWimagesbySabrinaEickhoff
4 Ways to STOP Impulse TradingHow do I STOP Impulse Trading?
Just a reminder.
An impulse trader is one who makes quick, irrational decisions to take a trade (long or short) for some form of immediate satisfaction it may bring in the short run.
Impulse trading might occasionally work.
But it's risky and can damage your trading confidence and psychology in the long run. That’s because when you win, you’ll take more impulse trades that go against your strategy.
But then the winning streak will end and the losing streak will come. And that’s where you’ll blow your portfolio eventually.
So, to help you overcome impulse trading, I suggest these three solutions:
Solution #1: Take a break
When you feel the urge to make an impulsive trade, step away from your computer for an hour.
Use the time to go cook a meal, go for a walk, or do something else that helps you relax.
Then when you’re feeling more relaxed and in tune, you can come back to trade the markets with a refreshed, rational mindset to see what has or is lining up.
Solution #2: Reflect on your trading history
Review your trading track record.
It is your game plan. It shows you the potential of what is to come.
And it allows you to look at your past data and trend of your portfolio.
Consider the gains and losses you've experienced and remind yourself of why it is super important to stick to your trading strategy.
This alone should help you resist impulsive trades.
Solution #3: Set specific conditions for impulse trading
If you still struggle to control your impulsive trading instincts, then this might be the best idea.
Open a separate trading account with disposable funds.
This way, you can indulge and take your impulse trades without jeopardizing your primary trading strategy and account.
Maybe it’s a R10,000 or even a R50,000 account.
Or if you just want to trade for trading sake it, it might be a R5,000 account.
Whatever it is.
When you feel impulsive, trade using your impulse trading account.
And then when it comes to your main account, you’ll be able to follow your specific trading strategy according to your track record.
Remember, trading should be approached and seen like running a business, not like playing a slot machine.
Keep this in mind, and this should help save your portfolio.
What Are The Different Types of Trends?
Trend trading strategies play a vital role in every trader’s life because it helps them identify early trades to exit from the market when there is a reverse trend. Typically, there are three different types of trends given below:
1. Uptrend
2. Downtrend
3. Sideways trend
Uptrend
An uptrend is formed when a price is rising in value. Usually, a bullish trend has a very common structure. The price keeps setting new higher highs, simultaneously setting new higher lows.
Downtrend
A trader can see a downtrend when the price is falling in value.
Usually, a bearish trend has a very common structure. The price keeps setting new lower lows, simultaneously setting new lower highs.
Sideways trend
The sideways trend is formed when the market remains static, i.e., the price neither sets new lows or new highs.
Trend identification is the essential part of any trading strategy. Learn to identify the market trend with objective and reliable rules.
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Market Capitalization and Price Volatility in CryptocurrenciesIntroduction
The cryptocurrency market has grown substantially in recent years, not just in terms of its size, but also in terms of its complexity and the variety of investment options available.
One of the key aspects that investors consider when evaluating potential investments is the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, which is calculated by multiplying the total supply of the cryptocurrency by its current price.
Another important aspect is price volatility, which refers to the degree of variation in the price of a financial instrument over time. The relationship between these two factors - market capitalization and price volatility - forms the basis of this article.
Understanding Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Market capitalization provides an indication of the size and scale of a cryptocurrency, and it is a useful measure for comparing different cryptocurrencies.
Larger market-cap cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, have established a significant presence in the market and are generally considered more stable.
On the other hand, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies, often referred to as 'altcoins', have the potential for high returns but come with a higher risk.
Price volatility, on the other hand, is a measure of price fluctuations over a given period. High volatility means that a cryptocurrency's price can change rapidly in a short time, making it possible for investors to experience significant gains or losses. Cryptocurrencies are generally more volatile than traditional fiat currencies, which means that the potential for gains or losses can be high.
The Correlation Between Market Capitalization and Price Volatility
Existing literature and market analysis suggests that there is a negative correlation between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies, meaning that cryptocurrencies with larger market caps tend to have lower volatility and vice versa. This makes intuitive sense, as larger market cap cryptocurrencies have a wider user base and more liquidity, which helps stabilize their prices.
For instance, Bitcoin, which has the largest market cap, has relatively lower volatility compared to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies. This lower volatility is due to the fact that Bitcoin, being the most established cryptocurrency, has a wider distribution and a large number of holders, which helps in maintaining its price stability.
Conversely, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies are more susceptible to price swings, often driven by speculation and sentiment rather than fundamental value. These cryptocurrencies can exhibit high volatility, leading to potential for large gains, but also high risk.
Implications for Investors and the Market
Understanding the relationship between market capitalization and price volatility is crucial for investors in the cryptocurrency market. It can help them tailor their investment strategies based on their risk tolerance. For instance, risk-averse investors might opt for larger market cap cryptocurrencies due to their lower volatility, while risk-tolerant investors might be attracted to smaller market cap cryptocurrencies due to their potential for high returns.
Furthermore, this relationship has implications for the stability and maturity of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. As the market matures and more capital flows into it, it is likely that overall volatility will decrease, making cryptocurrencies a more viable asset class for traditional investors.
Conclusion
The relationship between market capitalization and price volatility in cryptocurrencies is a key dynamic that has important implications for investors and the market as a whole. As the market continues to evolve and mature, it will be interesting to observe how this relationship changes and what that means for the future of cryptocurrency investing.
Trade with care.
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SOFR Futures Curve
SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) is a benchmark interest rate that is based on the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. It is considered to be a replacement for the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) benchmark, which is being phased out by the end of 2021. SOFR futures are derivative contracts that allow market participants to trade on the expected future values of the SOFR rate. They are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
SOFR futures prices are quoted in terms of the expected SOFR rate at the time the contract expires. For example, a SOFR futures contract expiring in March 2023 may be quoted at a price of 98.50, which would imply an expected SOFR rate of 1.50% at that time. These prices are used by market participants to hedge against interest rate risk and to speculate on the future direction of interest rates.
The importance of SOFR futures lies in their use as a benchmark for a wide range of financial products, including loans, mortgages, and derivatives. As such, movements in SOFR futures prices can have significant implications for the broader financial markets. Traders and investors can use charts of SOFR futures prices to identify trends and patterns in the market and to make informed trading decisions. The ability to analyze and interpret these charts is therefore a valuable skill for anyone involved in the financial markets.
Futures curves are a series of futures contracts for a specific underlying asset with different delivery dates. The SOFR futures curve represents the market's expectation of future SOFR rates over time. It shows the current market pricing for SOFR futures contracts with different maturities. Each point on the curve represents a future SOFR contract with a specific expiration date.
Reading the SOFR futures curve can provide important insights into market expectations about the future path of interest rates. The shape of the curve can provide signals about market sentiment and economic conditions. In a typical yield curve, a steep upward slope suggests the market expects interest rates to rise in the future, while a flat or inverted curve suggests the opposite. The same principles apply to futures curves.
The SOFR futures curve is particularly important for markets as it serves as a benchmark for pricing various financial products, such as swaps and interest rate derivatives. Changes in SOFR futures prices can have a significant impact on the broader financial markets and the economy as a whole. As such, traders, investors, and policymakers closely monitor the SOFR futures curve to gain insights into the market's outlook for interest rates and to inform their investment and policy decisions.
Unlocking the Secrets of Fundamental AnalysisFundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health, including its earnings, revenue, debt levels, and other economic indicators. The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine the intrinsic value of a company's stock and make investment decisions based on that value.
Fundamental analysts typically begin by examining a company's financial statements, such as its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. They also look at other economic indicators, such as interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending, to get a broader picture of the overall market conditions.
One of the key principles of fundamental analysis is that a company's stock price should reflect its true value. Fundamental analysts use a variety of methods, such as discounted cash flow analysis and price-to-earnings ratios, to determine a company's intrinsic value.
Another principle of fundamental analysis is that market trends and sentiment can create temporary mispricings in a company's stock price. This means that even a company with strong fundamentals can experience a temporary decline in stock price due to market factors.
Fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors who are looking to invest in companies with strong financials and growth potential. However, it is important to note that fundamental analysis is not a foolproof method of investing, and that there is always some level of risk involved.
In summary, fundamental analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that involves examining a company's financial health and economic indicators to determine its intrinsic value. While fundamental analysis can be a useful tool for long-term investors, it is important to remember that there is always some level of risk involved with investing.
What is Confluence❓✅ Confluence refers to any circumstance where you see multiple trade signals lining up on your charts and telling you to take a trade. Usually these are technical indicators, though sometimes they may be price patterns. It all depends on what you use to plan your trades. A lot of traders fill their charts with dozens of indicators for this reason. They want to find confluence — but oftentimes the result is conflicting signals. This can cause a lapse of confidence and a great deal of confusion. Some traders add more and more signals the less confident they get, and continue to make the problem worse for themselves.
✅ Confluence is very important to increase the chances of winning trades, a trader needs to have at least two factors of confluence to open a trade. When the confluence exists, the trader becomes more confident on his negotiations.
✅ The Factors Of Confluence Are:
Higher Time Frame Analysis;
Trade during London Open;
Trade during New York Open;
Refine Higher Time Frame key levels in Lower
Time Frame entries;
Combine setups;
Trade during High Impact News Events.
✅ Refine HTF key levels in LTF entries or setups for confirmation that the HTF analysis will hold the price.
HTF Key Levels Are:
HTF Order Blocks;
HTF Liquidity Pools;
HTF Market Structure.
CHOCH vs BOS ‼️WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market structure bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish / bearish market structure we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market structure we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the structure this is the BOS.
BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
WHAT IS CHOCH?
CHOCH - change of character. Also known as reversal, when the price fails to make a new higher high or lower low, then the price broke the structure and continue in other direction.
Market Structure Identification ✅Hello traders!
Today I want to tell you about:
✅ MARKET STRUCTURE .
Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Structure
Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual strucutre
4 LESSONS from Disney as a trader and Upside to comeI’m well in my thirties and Disney is still just as magical to me as it was when I was a kid.
When I was 15, one of the happiest days of my life was walking into Disney world.
The excitement lead to jumping, screaming and so much excitement not knowing where to start!
Anyways, Disney has been an icon in the entertainment industry for decades.
And they have delivered and shared unique and magical experiences and captivating stories to you, me and everyone around the world.
It’s definitely on my bucket list to go back to Disney world again. But today, I want to share some of the Disney’s principles can be applied to trading the financial markets and help traders develop a successful and profitable strategy.
Diversification with Disney versus Financial Markets:
Disney has a diverse portfolio of theme parks, resorts, hotels, products, services and franchises.
As traders we really need to open our options and diversify our portfolios in all different markets and instruments.
If you rely on ONE market or one country, you will not be able to spread and limit the risk during tumultuous times.
Just as Disney has a wide range of offerings to appeal to different audiences, us as traders should have a variety of investments to suit our personal trading style and risk tolerance.
Strong Brands applies to both
Disney has built a reputation as a trusted and reliable brand, and traders can learn from this by creating a watchlist of markets and securities that align with their trading strategy.
When you see the famous logo, the magical characters, princesses, cute animals – we just know it’s Disney.
When we here the Wish upon a star song or see Tinkerbell – we know.
As traders we need to also focus on the strongest brands.
Blue chip companies from shares.
Highest liquid (volume) traded currencies, indices, commodities.
Most reliable, legit, regulated and trustworthy exchanges.
High demand, volume traded and strong crypto currencies with promising prospects
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Stay innovative and you’ll have the edge!
Disney has always been at the forefront of innovation.
Whether it’s through its cutting-edge rides, products, restaurants, or even its Disney Plus TV streaming service.
Similarly, traders should strive to stay ahead of the curve by using the latest technology and tools to trade the markets.
This could include using advanced charting software, automated trading systems, or utilizing machine learning algorithms to analyze data.
TradingView is one of the only charting platforms that I have seen innovate on a weekly basis!
By embracing innovation, traders can stay ahead of the competition and stay ahead of market trends.
Staying True to Disney staying True to YOU!
At its core, Disney is all about staying true to its unique style and storytelling.
As I mentioned earlier. You can just tell it’s Disney.
Traders can learn from this by developing their own trading personality and risk profile, and sticking to it no matter what the market conditions may be.
Just as Disney has remained true to its vision for decades, traders should stay true to their own trading strategy, even in the face of market volatility and uncertainty.
You can now see how Disney’s timeless principles apply their success and how we can learn from them as traders to optimise, improve and level up our own financial success.
And on that note, Disney is also heading up!
Cup and Handle has shown, price has broken above.
We can see the first target at least - showing strong momentum to come.
But more on that next time!
🚩Symmetrical Triangle🚩 #️⃣OKXIDEAS !!!👨🏫Hello, everyone!👋 (Reading time less than 7 minutes⏰).
I’m here with another educational post to help you learners become super traders gradually.
🔅 As you know, various tools are usually used in any financial market to analyze all types of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and assets. Chart patterns are one of the essential tools used in technical analysis, and analysts evaluate the market movement and prepare to trade based on technical-fundamental studies.
🔅 The Symmetrical Triangle is one of the most used classic continuous patterns in the field, but it can sometimes turn into reversal patterns, as some analysts say.
🔷 So I’ll explain the following in this article:
Defining the triangle pattern
Getting to know the structure of a Symmetrical Triangle
Types of Symmetrical Triangles
How to trade using the Symmetrical Triangle pattern
Price target after Symmetrical Triangle pattern
The importance of trading volume in the Symmetrical Triangle pattern
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Triangle Pattern:
🔅The triangle pattern is one of the most well-known patterns many traders spend time on. A triangle is a trend continuation pattern that can occur in upward or downward trends. This triangle pattern is formed when a stock, cryptocurrency, or whatever shrinks towards an uptrend or downtrend.
The pattern represents a pause in the price trend, and the price consolidates in a range.
🔅 The triangle pattern consists of two converging lines with different slopes depending on the type. At least four major pivots are needed in the specific time frame to form a triangle pattern.
Basically, to form a triangle, 45 to 60 candles are needed in the specific time frame.
🔅 The take-profit of this pattern is considered the distance from the first top to the first bottom inside the triangle.
🔷 According to research, 84% agree that the triangle pattern is a continuation pattern that is divided into three types as follows:
Symmetrical triangle
Ascending Triangle
Descending Triangle
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One of the types of triangles that can lead you to money is Symmetrical Triangle which I’ll explain here:
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern in Upward Trends:
Take a look at the picture below. You can see the price forms tops and bottoms after an upward trend and then forms lower tops and higher bottoms.
🔅 Now try to draw a resistance line at the top and a support line at the bottom. What do you see? Yeah! That’s a triangle. These two lines will make a tip called the triangle's apex. If the four pivots(at least), two tops and two bottoms, are connected with a line, you can say a Symmetrical Triangle pattern in an upward trend has occurred.
🔅 It’s noted that if the price breaks the support trend line and drops, you’ll see this as a reversal pattern or a Symmetrical Triangle in the downward trend. Not always; a Symmetrical Triangle is a continuous pattern. So Watch out!
Here’s a picture of a reversal Symmetrical Triangle and how to trade while it is considered a reversal.
How to trade on the Symmetrical Triangle in an upward trend:
1-After the pattern completes, you must wait for the pattern to give us the entry confirmation(the upper line of the Symmetrical Triangle).
2-Try to open a long position when the real breakout happens. That can make a good profit. The real breakout occurs when a green candle like the Marubozu candle closes above the upper line of the Symmetrical Triangle or the resistance line.
3-Don’t forget to put a stop-loss. That will be below the breakout candle or below the prior candle’s bottom.
The distance between the first top and the first bottom in the triangle would be one of high risk-to-reward ratio take-profit points.
The other way to take the profit is to draw a line from the first top facing the support trend line along.
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Symmetrical Triangle Pattern in Downward Trends
🔅 Another trend that a Symmetrical Triangle can move is downward trend when the price continues downward after forming the pattern.
🔅 Luckily, one of the best tools that can help you earn lots of money is the Symmetrical Triangle because it supports two-sided markets. But the question is how this type of triangle forms. Stay with me.
🔅 Imagine you’re walking through the bushes for a long time, then you’ll get tired, and you don’t feel energetic in your feet to move on. So do buyers and sellers in the financial markets.
🔅 When the price of an asset enters a converging trend of lower tops and higher bottoms, buyers and sellers test how strong the trend is. The buyers make bottoms at a higher price as sellers prevent the creation of a higher top.
🔅 In this case, the sellers are mostly winners, so better to be a seller rather than a buyer. Like the pattern I already discussed, the Symmetrical Triangle pattern in a downward trend needs at least four significant pivots to be confirmed.
🔅 There's also a possibility of breaking the upper line of the Symmetrical Triangle on the top after the Symmetrical Triangle pattern formation. The reversal pattern has occurred in this case, and the long position is considered a plan.
How to trade on the Symmetrical Triangle in a downward trend:
1-You have to wait for the candles to break the lower line of the Symmetrical Triangle. But the only key point is that if the breakout is valid. So if the breakout candle closes below the lower line of the Symmetrical Triangle, it’s time to open a short position.
2-The stop-loss will be above the last top. Therefore, in case of opening a short position on an asset, you can also place your stop-loss above the breakout candle for a higher risk-to-reward ratio.
3-The price targets will be 1) the distance between the first bottom and the first top, or 2) you can draw a line from the first bottom facing the resistance line.
🔷 Below, you can see a Symmetrical Triangle in a downward trend and how you can trade with it.
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The Importance of Trading Volume in the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
🔅 The asset chart is in correction as long as the price chart is inside the Symmetrical Triangle pattern.
🔅 The trading volume in the pattern process will be neutral as most traders are waiting for the follow-up movement of the asset.
🔅 The closer the chart gets to the apex of the triangle to depart from the pattern, the range of fluctuations and the trading volume become less and less.
🔅 The importance of trading volume in the Symmetrical Triangle pattern can be seen near the exit from the pattern.
🔅 If the previous trend of the chart was bullish, it is likely that the trading volume will increase dramatically if the pattern is broken.
🔅 Also, the trading volume will decrease near the triangle's apex, but it increases instantly after breaking out, whether it is an upward or downward trend.
🔅 For this purpose, examining the trading volume in different areas of the pattern can greatly help us better understand the trend and predict the future of the asset.
🔅 In a way, you always have to wait for the chart to go out of the pattern, and by checking the direction of the trend and trading volume, you can make a better decision about buying or selling your currencies.
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Symmetrical Triangle in Elliott Theory
The Symmetrical Triangle called the “Contracting Triangle,” is a basic pattern in Elliott Waves. Elliott triangles can be considered one of the stable consolidation patterns in the market, which can be divided into five waves. To return, each of these five waves carries three sub-waves.
The waves of the triangle are named A, B, C, D, and E.
The Symmetrical Triangle can often be seen as a continuation pattern that creates a pause in the trend and then resumes.
In this pattern, wave A, which is the biggest wave in the pattern, can be a zigzag, double zigzag, triple zigzag, or a flat pattern, and wave B can only be a zigzag, double zigzag, or triple zigzag.
Waves D and C can also move in their pattern by a zigzag pattern, and finally, an E wave is formed, which can be a zigzag, double zigzag, triple zigzag, and sometimes a triangle.
In a Symmetrical Triangle, waves B, C, and D often cover 61.8% of the previous wave.
Finally, by drawing this pattern's up-and-down trend lines, the lines get close to each other and cannot be parallel.
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Conclusion:
🔔 In this article, you learned about the Symmetrical Triangle and how to trade using the pattern. You now know where to enter and exit the market to make a suitable profit. Don’t forget to follow your capital management to lower the trading risks.
TRADING ON THE WEEKLY CHARTToday we're going to talk about how to trade on the weekly timeframe. Trading on the weekly chart makes it clear that this trading strategy is for those who are patient, do not rush anywhere, and are willing to wait for signals for weeks or even months.
The idea behind the trading system
So, it is designed for those who have no hurry, or vice versa, for those who have very little time, and they can check the charts for a minute on weekends at most. Trades on this strategy are made once a week. It is possible to enter at the opening of the market, but the best entry will be on Monday morning; at this time prices are more attractive, and the entry time does not make any sharp moves in the weekly timeframe.
The strategy is very simple, and it is possible to trade "anything that moves", because the system is based on a simple and plain idea. We wait until the weekly chart shows three candlesticks in a row in the same direction, either bullish or bearish, and then we enter in the same direction. That's it. That's how easy it is. The fact is that this pattern of three consecutive weekly candlesticks in one direction shows that there are a large number of big traders buying or selling.
Because it takes a lot of money to move the price three weeks in a row in one direction, when that happens, it means that someone really needs the price to move. And this impulse attracts other participants into the market. Not necessarily a very strong trend is formed. But one can count on the continuation of the movement equal to the found formation from the opening of the first candle to the closing of the third one, without tails. It is often possible to see stronger movements. Once again, the idea is very simple: if we see three weekly candlesticks in a row in one direction, it means that there is a lot of money in the market, which pushes the price in this direction.
Strategy Rules
The basic rules you've probably already figured out are: we wait for three one-way candlesticks in a row, and then we enter on Monday morning in the same direction. The candlesticks must be obvious and clean; their bodies should be visible to the naked eye without zooming in on the chart. The doji with practically no body is not considered.
Moreover, if the candle's body is not visible on the distant chart and interrupts our formation, then we start the counting of three candles in a row again. In other words, it should be obvious even to a child who has won this week with the bulls or the bears.
A stop-loss should be placed right after the formation. It will not trigger very often because the strategy is very reliable, but sometimes it still happens. Take profit is set at a distance equal to the formation. As a result, it turns out that the stop-loss and take-profit ratios in the strategy are approximately 1 to 1. You can, of course, experiment with your own variations, but this approach is the most effective in terms of winrate.
If, after the signal is worked out, we see three candles in a row in the same direction again, it may be too risky to re-enter. It is more reliable if there is at least one opposite candle between two unidirectional signals that the market still needs to correct.
If the price missed taking profit just a bit and started to correct, you'd better exit. The profit may be somewhat smaller, but it will still be there. This method protects not only from losing profits but also from triggered stop-losses. Those who use classic price action can also monitor strong levels, and if the price hits one of them, they can exit with a smaller profit.
In case the opposite entry signal for this strategy was formed before our trade closed at take profit or stop loss, it is better not to argue with the market. Close the current trade and enter immediately on the new signal.
Money Management Strategy
Money management is very important in this system. The strategy uses large take and stop positions, so the lots should be small. Fortunately, small capital allows for competent money management even with a $100 deposit. The trade volume should not exceed 1% of the capital. For an exact calculation, it is better to use the lot calculator.
Examples of trades
On the weekly timeframe of the GBP, three bearish candles were formed in a row. We wait for Monday morning to enter; the quotes open with a gap, but taking into account the target take level of 382 pips, the order accuracy does not play a big role in the trade. After selling GBPUSD, set a take profit equal to the distance from Friday's closing price to the opening price of the first of the three candles of the pattern. We put a stop just above the upper tail of the first candle.
Despite the long fall, the quotes have not reached take-profit. This is exactly the case when it is worth going out and not waiting. As described above in the strategy rules, if a candle visually misses the take-profit mark, we exit the trade. The trader who left the short would have to close the trade with a loss due to the opposite signal. Three rising candles are a signal to close any opposite positions and open a long position in GBPUSD.
As we can see from the chart, the pound did not go up, and the trade was closed with a stop loss. The rules of the trading system do not override the principles of technical analysis, which can be seen in another example of using this strategy when trading gold. Three candles in a row, the first of which passed the minimum "body visibility" requirements, gave a buy signal. After one week of fall, quite far from the set take profit, a reversal pinbar is formed. In favor of fixing the position at the support level. The trader would have received a stop if he had not exited the position.
On the same chart later, the quotes again give a signal to go short, but in this case, the bears manage to break the support. On the next wave, the traders break through the suppport with momentum, and the price eventually reaches our take profit. Above are specially cited examples of complex cases; as the setups can be seen with the naked eye, you can find more simple examples on your own.
Conclusion
The strategy works flawlessly on the major currency pairs. Even on such volatile days. The weekly strategy is also suitable for very aggressive instruments, such as gold. Stop-losses, of course, will be knocked out a bit more often than on more "calm" instruments, but the trading system remains effective. In addition, it perfectly protects against a flat, as three unidirectional candles clearly indicate the end of the consolidation and the formation of a trend.