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Fundamental Analysis

4 Dangerous News Events - for TradersWhen you’re a mechanical trader. And when you think you got trading in a bag. You still need to be logical and rational when trading the markets. There are exceptions. And you need to consider these exceptions which could have a profound effect on the financial markets. It’s these unforeseen circumstances, that you need to take the stand. You might need to risk less. You might need to not take the trade. You might need to halt trading for a few days. All because of these potential 4 events. Let’s get into them so you can stay out of them. Black Swans (Unprecedented events) Black Swans are highly unpredictable events that go beyond what is usually expected of a situation. One definition I like is this. A Black Swan is where an event can cause the market to move 10 standard deviations away from the norm. When this happens they could potentially have severe and wide-reaching consequences. You’ll see the market will jump erratically and even cause a halt in trading activity completely. So when you spot a Black Swan. Just take it easy from trading the markets that can be affected. Here are 10 Black Swan Events that I can think of that had an impact on the markets. 2008 Global Financial Crisis Triggered by the collapse of the US housing market, it led to a worldwide banking crisis and severe global economic downturn. COVID-19 Pandemic An unprecedented global health crisis that had significant repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020. Dotcom Bubble Burst (2000) The dramatic rise (due to greed and optimism) and fall (due to fear and panic) of internet companies in the late 1990s led to a severe market correction. Brexit (2016) Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU had immediate impacts on global markets. Japanese Asset Price Bubble Burst (1992) This led to a lost decade of economic stagnation in Japan. (Have you seen the Nikkei! And can you imagine holding stocks from 1992?) Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015) The Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to remove the cap on the Franc’s value against the Euro led to extreme currency volatility. (Forex trading was a nightmare seeing some prices drop hundreds of pips). September 11 Attacks (2001) The terrorist attacks had immediate and long-term effects on global economies and markets. (I was too young to worry so I missed this one.) Fukushima Nuclear Disaster (2011) Triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami, it had significant impacts on global energy markets. (I remember holding oil stocks while driving. And I came home to R120,000 loss). Flash Crash (2010) The US stock market crash, triggered by a high-frequency trading algorithm, sent a financial shockwave around the world. (Fat fingers caused by unknown factors). Oil Price Negative (2020) For the first time in history, the price of US oil turned negative due to low demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moving on... Non-Farm Payrolls (Major spikes during news release) The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is the big one. It is released on the first Friday of each month and is a key economic indicator for the United States. It shows us the total number of paid US workers, excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and employees of non-profit organizations. When the numbers are higher than expected, there are more jobs and the stock markets go up. When the numbers are lower than expected, there are less jobs, more pessimism which causes stock markets to plummet. Significant deviations from forecasts in the NFP data can lead to major spikes in market volatility. If the data shows job growth, it indicates a strong economy, which can boost the US dollar and negatively impact bonds due to the potential for increased interest rates. Conversely, lower-than-expected job growth can indicate a weakening economy, potentially weakening the US dollar and boosting bond prices. Possible Warnings (Micro and Macro Announcements) Keeping an ear to the ground for both micro and macro announcements can provide a trader with essential foresight. On a micro level, company-specific news such as: Earnings reports New product launches Executive changes M&A activities Rights Offers and share distributions These can result in large price movements. On the macro level, broader economic announcements like: Changes in monetary policy inflation rates QE (Quantitative Easing) Credit tightening GDP growth Consumer sentiment FOMC, Central banks meetings and economic talks and geopolitical events You’ll see these will have a ripple effect on wider market movements. Huge Gaps (Spikes in Volatility in Prices) Price gaps occur when there’s a significant difference between the closing price of one trading period and the opening price of the next. Basically, a void between two price candles. This generally happens when one market moves up during the day. And then a bigger and leading market crashes. This results in the first market opening a lot lower down than the previous close. This can be due to an impactful event that happened in the time between the two periods. Keep an eye out on these four events. It’ll help you better navigate the market landscape, react to volatility, and potentially make better trading decisions. Remember, the financial markets are affected by a myriad of factors, and a keen understanding of these key events can be a critical part of your trading strategy.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
A Comprehensive Daily Routine of TraderGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView ! Trading in the financial markets is often likened to a battleground of strategies, psychology, and data analysis. To navigate this dynamic landscape successfully, we need more than just luck; we need a well-structured daily routine that blends education, analysis, and real-time decision-making. In this article, we delve into a comprehensive daily routine that can set traders on the path to success. 1. Read Heavy Subjects Every trader knows that staying ahead in the game requires continuous learning. Reading trading-related books and articles is an essential part of honing one's skills. However, it's not just about skimming through the surface; the real value lies in diving into heavy subjects. Delve into trading psychology, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management. Psychology books can help you understand the emotional aspect of trading, which often plays a pivotal role in decision-making. On the technical side, learning about chart patterns, indicators, and trend analysis can enhance your ability to identify profitable opportunities. Fundamental analysis books offer insights into evaluating a company's financial health, which is crucial for trading stocks. By dedicating time to reading heavy subjects, traders can fortify their knowledge base and make informed decisions. 2. Learn From Others In the age of social media and online communities, learning from experienced traders has become more accessible than ever. Platforms like TradingView and Twitter are treasure troves of insights and strategies shared by smart traders. Engaging with these platforms allows you to learn from others' experiences, understand their thought processes, and adopt successful trading strategies. However, a word of caution is necessary here. While learning from others is valuable, it's crucial to develop your own analytical skills and not blindly follow someone else's advice. Use these insights to inform your decisions, but always verify and validate the information before acting upon it. 3. OnChain Metrics In the realm of cryptocurrency trading, where blockchain technology reigns, on-chain metrics can be powerful indicators of market trends. Tools like GlassNode and ArkhamIntelligence provide insights into on-chain activities, such as large transactions made by institutional investors (Smart Money) or significant movements by whales (holders of large amounts of cryptocurrency). Monitoring these metrics can give you a sense of potential market movements and sentiment shifts. However, it's important to remember that while on-chain metrics can provide valuable context, they are not foolproof predictors of price movements. Cryptocurrency markets are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, and combining on-chain data with other types of analysis can yield more accurate insights. 4. Watch the Numbers In trading, numbers are your allies. Monitoring market data, price movements, trading volumes, and other relevant metrics is a fundamental part of a trader's routine. Platforms like Tokenterminal and DefiLlama provide data on token performance and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, allowing traders to identify trends and potential opportunities. Unusual spikes or drops in numbers can indicate significant market shifts, which might warrant further investigation. However, like any other analysis method, numbers should be interpreted within the broader market context. One should avoid making impulsive decisions solely based on numerical fluctuations. Trading is a discipline that requires constant learning, adaptability, and discipline. Following a structured daily routine that involves in-depth reading, learning from experienced traders, monitoring on-chain metrics, and analyzing market numbers can greatly enhance a your chances of success. However, it's important to maintain a critical mindset, verify information, and integrate various analysis methods to make well-informed trading decisions. Remember, a robust routine combined with a healthy dose of intuition can be a powerful combination in the world of trading.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Vestinda
ELLIOTT WAVE CORRECTIVE PATTERNS Elliott Wave corrective movements are deviations from the main trend and serve to correct errors or imperfections that occurred during the formation of an impulse movement. These corrective movements are defined by complex wave structures that can be repeated in different variations and combinations. The wave structure consists of two types of movements - impulsive and corrective. An impulsive movement is directed in the main direction of the trend, while a corrective movement is the opposite of this direction. Correction waves are the inverse of impulse waves, and they are executed as three-type structures. Elliott described 21 correction patterns of ABC type. There are three main types of Elliott Wave corrective movements. All of them are quite simple and consist of only three patterns. - Zig Zag - Sideways or flat - Triangles 1. Zigzag Corrections: This type of corrective movement consists of three waves, with the second wave diverging in the opposite direction from the trend in the first wave and the third wave returning to the main trend. Zigzag corrections can be either upward or downward. 2. Non-wave-like (Flat) Corrections: In this case, the corrective movement is a sideways movement in which the second wave deviates from the main trend and the third wave returns to it. Non-Waveform corrections can be flat or complex, depending on the structure and duration. 3. Triangular (Triangle) Corrections: In this case, the corrective movement is a triangle formation, which consists of five small waves connected to each other by triangle diagonals. Each wave of a triangle correction can be impulsive or corrective in nature. Elliott Wave corrective movements can be combined and repeated in different ways to form complex and interesting wave structures. Studying and understanding these corrective movements allows traders and investors to predict future price movements and make appropriate market decisions. Corrective movements of Elliot waves are important for analyzing past, current and upcoming market cycles. They allow to determine possible entry and exit points of trades. However, it is worth remembering that financial markets are complex and subject to various factors, so the analysis should be done with caution and taking into account other factors and analysis tools.
Education
by Lingrid
4
Mastering the Rising Wedge Pattern in Forex: Your Path to Profit Are you ready to unlock the secrets of the rising wedge pattern in the thrilling world of forex trading? 🚀 In this comprehensive guide, we'll dive into the intricacies of trading this powerful chart pattern and show you how to harness its potential for profitable gains. 📊💰 Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈 The rising wedge pattern is a technical analysis formation that signals a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. Visually, it resembles a narrowing price range between two converging trendlines, with the upper trendline slanting more steeply than the lower one. This pattern suggests that buyers are becoming less enthusiastic, leading to a possible trend reversal. 📉📈 Trading the Rising Wedge: Step-by-Step Guide 📚 1. Identify the Pattern: Locate the two trendlines, ensuring there are at least two touches on the upper trendline and two on the lower trendline. 2. Confirming Volume: Observe the volume during the formation of the rising wedge. Ideally, there should be diminishing volume as the pattern develops, indicating weakening buying pressure. 3. Wait for Breakout: Anticipate a breakout below the lower trendline as confirmation of a potential downtrend. Consider using additional indicators to support your decision, such as RSI or MACD. 4. Set Stop Loss and Take Profit: Place your stop-loss above the recent swing high within the wedge, and set your take-profit level based on a reasonable risk-to-reward ratio. Real-Life Examples 📊🔍 1. Example 1: 2. Example 2: 3. Example 3: Unveil the potential of rising wedge patterns in forex trading and elevate your trading game today! 📈🔼🔽 Don't miss out on this opportunity to navigate the markets with greater confidence and precision. 💼🤑 Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
10
What is Scalping (How to Scalp the right way)To me scalping is a form of trading that's done when you're in between your moving averages or in between support and resistance levels like inside of those zones or when you are inside of consolidation and distribution areas. A lot of you claim to be scalpers on small time frames when the truth of the matter is you are simply impatient and you use 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute or less time frames on your charts. With that being said one thing that you need to have a good grasp on is how to range trade and in this video I'm going to show you what you should be looking for when you arrange trading. ------------- Scalping is a trading style that specializes in profiting off of small price changes and making a fast profit off reselling. In day trading, scalping is a term for a strategy to prioritize making high volumes off small profits. Scalping requires a trader to have a strict exit strategy because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains the trader worked to obtain. Thus, having the right tools—such as a live feed, a direct-access broker, and the stamina to place many trades—is required for this strategy to be successful. Scalping is a trading style that specializes in profiting off of small price changes and making a fast profit off reselling. Scalping requires a trader to have a strict exit strategy because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains the trader worked to obtain. Having the right tools—such as a live feed, a direct-access broker, and the stamina to place many trades—is required for this strategy to be successful. A successful stock scalper will have a much higher ratio of winning trades versus losing ones, while keeping profits roughly equal or slightly bigger than losses. A pure scalper will make a number of trades each day—perhaps in the hundreds.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
13
📈 The Impact of GDP on Currency Value 📉The Impact of GDP on Currency Value: Exploring the Complex Relationship The global economy is an intricate web of interconnected factors that influence each other in profound ways. Among these factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the value of a country's currency stand out as two vital elements that play a significant role in shaping a nation's economic landscape. The relationship between GDP and currency value is a multifaceted one, involving intricate dynamics influenced by domestic and international forces. This essay delves into the complex interplay between GDP and currency value, examining how changes in GDP can impact a nation's currency strength. Understanding GDP and Currency Value: GDP serves as a crucial indicator of a country's economic health, representing the total value of all goods and services produced within its borders over a specific period. It reflects a nation's economic output and growth potential. Currency value, on the other hand, refers to the worth of a country's currency in relation to other currencies in the international market. Currency values fluctuate based on a myriad of factors, including interest rates, inflation, trade balances, political stability, and overall economic performance. The Interplay: The relationship between GDP and currency value is not one-dimensional but rather a complex interplay that involves both short-term and long-term effects. While it is commonly believed that a higher GDP should result in a stronger currency, the reality is more nuanced. Here are several ways in which GDP can impact currency value: 1. Interest Rates and Inflation: A country's central bank typically uses interest rates as a tool to manage inflation and promote economic stability. When a nation experiences strong GDP growth, it often translates to increased consumer spending and demand for goods and services. This surge in demand can lead to higher inflation rates if supply struggles to keep up. To counter this, central banks might decide to raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and curbing excessive spending. Higher interest rates can attract foreign investors seeking better returns on their investments. The allure of higher yields on bonds and other financial instruments denominated in the domestic currency can lead to increased demand for that currency. As foreign investors exchange their currencies for the domestic currency to make these investments, the increased demand can contribute to currency appreciation. 2. Trade Balances: GDP growth often goes hand in hand with increased export activity. A growing economy tends to have more goods and services available for export, potentially leading to a positive trade balance where exports exceed imports. When a country's exports exceed imports, it means that more foreign currency is flowing into the country than leaving it. This can lead to an increased demand for the domestic currency, as foreign buyers need to convert their currencies to the local currency to purchase the exported goods and services. A favorable trade balance and robust export activity can contribute to currency strength. However, it's important to note that other factors, such as import demand, trade agreements, and currency manipulation by other countries, can also influence trade balances and currency values. 3. Investor Confidence: A high GDP growth rate is often seen as a sign of a healthy and vibrant economy. A nation that demonstrates consistent growth is likely to have a stable economic environment with abundant opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors. This positive perception can significantly enhance investor confidence. Investor confidence matters because it affects capital flows. Foreign investors seeking reliable and profitable investment opportunities are more likely to invest in countries with strong economic fundamentals. As these investors pour capital into the country, they often convert their currencies into the local currency, increasing its demand and, consequently, its value in the foreign exchange market. 4. Capital Flows: Countries experiencing rapid GDP growth often attract significant capital inflows from foreign investors. These investors are drawn to the potential for high returns that a growing economy can offer. As they invest in various sectors such as stocks, real estate, and businesses, they typically need to exchange their currencies for the domestic currency, increasing its demand. The increased demand for the domestic currency driven by capital inflows can contribute to currency appreciation. However, sudden shifts in investor sentiment or changes in global economic conditions can lead to rapid capital outflows, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency's value. 5. Market Expectations: Market participants, including investors and speculators, often base their decisions on expectations of future events. If a country consistently maintains a high GDP growth rate, it can create an expectation of future currency appreciation. This expectation can prompt investors to buy the domestic currency in anticipation of future gains. The influx of investors seeking to capitalize on anticipated currency appreciation can drive up demand for the currency in the short term, contributing to its strength. However, if the actual economic performance deviates from these expectations, it can lead to rapid changes in currency value. 6. Political Stability: A strong GDP growth rate can reflect a stable political environment and effective governance. Political stability is an attractive feature for foreign investors, as it suggests a reduced risk of abrupt policy changes, social unrest, or economic upheaval. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment tend to flow into politically stable countries. As foreign investors commit funds to these countries, they typically convert their currencies into the local currency. The resulting increase in demand for the domestic currency can lead to appreciation. However, political stability is just one aspect, and economic fundamentals and global events can also influence currency values. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Effects: While the positive relationship between GDP growth and currency value is plausible in the long term, short-term fluctuations are common due to various factors. For instance, sudden shifts in economic data, geopolitical events, or global economic conditions can lead to short-term deviations from the expected relationship. The relationship between GDP and currency value is a multifaceted one that involves a delicate balance of domestic and international factors. While a higher GDP growth rate can generally contribute to a stronger currency in the long run, the real-world scenario is influenced by a myriad of factors. Policymakers, investors, and analysts must consider the holistic economic landscape to understand the complex dynamics at play. The interplay between GDP and currency value underscores the intricate nature of the global economy and the continuous adjustments required to navigate its complexities. 🚀 If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post, I encourage you to leave a like and follow on my profile 🚀
Education
by InvestMate
1
IMPORTANCE OF COMBINING TIMEFRAMESA trader usually works on a strategy that is strictly tied to one timeframe. This timeframe is used to determine the trend direction and search for strategy signals. Alexander Elder proposed to perform additional analysis and confirm the trend movement on two more timeframes of higher order. This technique was first described in his work, called "Elder's Three Screens". Combining timeframes was designed to: • Increase the winrate • Improve the accuracy of entries Alexander Elder suggested adding one more chart with a higher timeframe to the trading timeframe to get an overall picture of the trend and determine its direction. And to look for entry points into trades on the third screen with the smallest timeframe. Theoretically, the trend matching on two higher timeframes increases the percentage of profitable trades. Moving the strategy algorithm to a smaller timeframe reduces the size of stop-loss and recorded losses. For example, a trader analyzes the general trend on a daily chart and determines its direction. Let's assume that the currency pair is growing the price is above the moving average MA (200). According to the rules of the strategy, it is necessary to go to the 4-hour chart and wait for the confirmation of the trend on this timeframe. The currency pair price should also rise above the MA (200). After the combination of trends on D1 and H4, it is necessary to wait for a similar signal on M15 or M5. Then it will be possible to look for an entry point into a trade to buy according to the strategy. The practical results of combining timeframes according to Elder's strategy are of little value. Even if the general trend on the daily chart is upward, different price movements can occur on a lower timeframe, for example, on a 15-minute or 5-minute chart. Despite the global trend of the oldest American stock index, only 50% of days over the last 30 years closed above the closing price of the previous day. It turns out that the ever-growing Dow index has an even distribution of positive and negative days. In the Forex market, in general, we can also expect a roughly even distribution, especially if we take into account the range nature of the currency market, i.e. the accuracy of the Elder filter from the higher timeframes works 50/50. Therefore, relying only on the trend of the higher timeframe is not recommended for intraday traders (day traders). However, if this kind of signal filtering gives you psychological confidence, you can use this tactic. Psychology and emotional comfort are an important component of trading. ✴️ How To Reduce Stop-loss And Increase The Efficiency Of Trading Strategy By Combining Timeframes There is another approach of combining timeframes in trading, which is found in the works of Tom Dante. This tactic is based on Dante's work and allows you to combine several timeframes using structural analysis of price movement. Instead of simply filtering signals, the trader looks for matching patterns on different timeframes, which can indicate more reliable entry points into the trade. Increasing winrate and reducing stop-losses can be achieved by using a strategy that works equally well on different timeframes. For example, Price Action is ideal for these requirements. As in the classic Elder strategy, everything starts with analyzing the general trend on the D1 chart. Only the trader is busy looking for support/resistance levels, key candlestick formations and other Price Action signals. In the example below, there is a level breakout on the D1 chart. If the trader decides to go short, the stop loss should be behind the candlestick high or at the nearest resistance level from the broken line. Then you can move to the 4-hour chart and look for structural support or resistance levels that can confirm the overall trend. And on the H1 chart, you can look for confirmations to enter the trade in the form of candlestick formations or other technical indicators. This way, you combine information from multiple timeframes to more accurately determine when to enter the market. It is not recommended to go below the hourly chart if D1 has become the starting point for combining timeframes. A trader can also simplify the combination strategy to two timeframes, for example, D1 and H1. In the example above, the H1 chart shows a bounce from a broken level, which can be used as a signal to open a short. In this case, the stop loss will be just above the local maximum of the hour candles, which is much smaller than the stop loss on D1. ✴️ Combining the D1 timeframe with H1 enables the trader to: • Reduce stop loss and increase the order lot; • Increase profit by using take profit to close the position, which is set on the D1 chart. Stop Loss on H1 allows you to increase the profit/risk ratio by times when trading on D1. Without combining timeframes, risk and profit would be 1 to 1 or at least 2 to 1. ✴️ Let's summarize the simple rules of structural analysis of the strategy of combined timeframes: 1. Find a pattern on the D1 timeframe 2. Move to H4/H1 and wait for a signal using the same strategy 3. Open a trade according to the rules of the strategy on H4/H1 4. Set Stop Loss on H4/H1 5. Set take profit on D1 ✴️ Conclusion It is worth noting that the proposed strategy will require additional Price Action skills. Searching for patterns requires great attention and patience to wait for confirming signals on each timeframe. However, this approach can improve the accuracy of entries and reduce the probability of false signals. Risk management is the most important aspect of timeframe combinations. When using lower timeframes, you can determine more accurate stop loss and take profit levels based on the higher timeframes. This helps to reduce risk and increase potential profits. Like every new strategy, the idea of combining structural market analysis requires practice on a demo account to find more appropriate trading systems and to practice correlating signals.
Education
by DeGRAM
5
How To Go Full Time As A TraderHey guys! In this video, we discuss some of the most important things to take into consideration before making the jump to becoming a full-time trader. Topics discussed: - Cash in, cash out and burn rate - The importance of a solid, time-tested strategy - Psychological pitfalls and how to avoid them - Long term wealth impacts Have questions? Let us know in the comments! Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
AMEX:SPYEducation
by PropNotes
60
16 Golden Risk Management Rules for TradersTo build your portfolio. You need to learn to manage your risk. And over the last 16+ years, I’ve given you maybe five ideas on how to do it. Well, today I have 16 of the most essential Risk Management rules I could come up with in just one seating. They might not all apply to you. But most of them I believe will definitely resonate with you, your portfolio and with your risk profile. So, I have taken the time, energy and effort to jot down the 16 most powerful Risk management rules, you can apply to your trading. Starting today… Here they are… RULE #1: The 2% Rule Never risk more than 2% of your total trading capital on a single trade. This rule will help you to limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio. RULE #2: The Probability Rule – Classify trades as high, medium, or low probability This depends on your trading strategy. If you know how to spot a: High probability trade (HPT) (good chance of winning). Medium probability trade (MPT) (lower chance of winning). Low probability trade (LPT) (very low chance of winning). I have a very simple rule. With a HPT, risk 2% of your portfolio. With a MPT, risk 1.5% of your portfolio. With a LPT, risk 1% of your portfolio Only risk according to the state of the probabilities of the trade – right? RULE #3: 20% Drawdown Rule – Halt trading at a 20% loss to avoid deeper slumps If that inevitable Drawdown kicks in. And your portfolio drops 5%, 10% and then down to 20%. Halt trading. Don’t stop! Instead, move over to paper trade your account until the conditions turn up and the system works again. And when you do start, only start risking 1% at a time until you are confident again with your strategy and with your frame of mind. This rule alone, you’ll save you from blowing your account. RULE #4: NEVER risk money you can’t afford to lose If you feel emotionally tied to your money. Or you need the money for daily living expenses or retirement savings. Don’t trade with it. You will feel like a wreck. Instead of enjoying the trading journey and process. Trading will be an emotional rollercoaster during both winning and losing streaks. RULE #5: The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Apply a time-based stop-loss rule to limit losses If a trade doesn’t reach its profit target within a specific timeframe – Close the trade. I have a 7 week time stop loss before I consider closing trades. Either you’ll bank a lower loss than you planned. Or you will bank a lower profit than planned. This prevents capital from being tied up in stagnant trades. NOTE: There are times where I might NOT implement a time stop loss. For example, when I short (sell) a trade which earns interest income each day. RULE #6: The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Use a 1:1 trailing stop-loss to protect profits Once a trade hits a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. I might trail my stop loss up to just above break even. This way I will bank a minimum gain, should the trade turn against me. My win rate will go up, for the portfolio. And emotionally it’s easier to hold a trade where you’ve secured a minimum profit. RULE #7: Half off Rule – Take half your profits early to secure gains If the trade is moving nicely in my favour. And it reaches a R:R of 1 to 1. Sometimes I’ll close half my position. I’ll then trail my stop loss to above breakeven. This way I’ll bank a decent profit. And I would have left room for the market to continue rallying to my initial take profit. This rule alone is God-sent. RULE #8: The 1% Margin Rule – Limit margin use to 1% of your account to control risk For those who are worried about HIGH leveraged instruments. This one is for you. The rule is, if you’re trading on margin (leverage). Never risk more than 1% of your trading account on a single trade. This way: You’ll have majority of your portfolio to trade with. You’ll have less money exposed to risk in any one trade. You’ll be able to track your risk better, for if the market gaps. RULE #9: The Intraday Stop Rule – Set an intraday rule to know when to stop trading for the day If you take on an intraday trade i.e. Smart Money Concepts trading a Forex Pair or index. Set a daily loss limit or a maximum number of losses. If you reach this amount, stop trading for the day to prevent your portfolio from spiralling into more losses. Come back the next day, to slay. RULE #10: Forex NEWS Rule – Stay off the market during high-impact news events This happens during high-volatile events. And this applies with mainly Forex! If there are any high impact news events such as major economic announcements. It can significantly increase trading risks. When these days come, I don’t take any Forex trades. Here’s are the main High-Impact-News events: CPI (Consumer Price Index) news report days CPI measures the changes in prices of a basket of goods and services over time as a measure of inflation. NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) A monthly report released (on the 1st Friday of the month) by the US Department of Labor. It shows the number of jobs added or lost in the non farm sector. This is a measure of the health of the US economy. PPI (Producer Price Index) A measure of the average change over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services. This is another measure of inflation and economic growth. First with CPI and then with PPI. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) When the FOMC the US Federal Reserve meets to set monetary policy, (decision on interest rates and the money supply). RULE #11: The Risk-Reward Rule – Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:1.5 If you do NOT see a trade with a Risk to Reward of at least 1:1.5. It is NOT a good idea to trade. Anything less than 1:1.5, and your risk will be similar to what you are looking to gain. And remember, you still need to cover costs, brokerages and daily interest charges. It’s not worth buying and selling trades with a R:R of 1:1.5. I prefer to trade with risk to rewards of 1:2 instead. That way, even with a 40% win rate, I’ll be profitable. RULE #12: The 20% Golden Rule – Never expose your portfolio to more than 20% Trading is a risky biscuit. So, even though you have money in your account. Doesn’t mean you should have all of your money in different markets. I like to limit my capital to a maximum of 20% of my total investment portfolio. Remember, you are gearing up when you trade. While leverage can magnify gains, it can also magnify losses. It’s crucial to know how to use leverage effectively. Also, it’s our job to and avoid taking on more debt than we can handle. Because when you trade on margin (leverage), you’re exposing yourself to MORE than what you deposit. So protect most of the capital at a time in your portfolio. RULE #13: The Hedgehog Rule – Don’t be too long or too short – Hedge your positions I like to say hedge your positions. Don’t HOG on too many longs. Or too many shorts. When a main index is showing strong signs of moving in a certain direction (up or down). You may feel the absolute need to buy as many stocks as possible, to ride the trend. However, you need to remember the market can change the trend direction just as fast. And your winning positions can instantly turn to losers. So, when you are holding a high number of longs, make sure you trade a couple of shorts. When you are holding a large number of shorts, make sure you trade a few longs. This way you can hedge your positions in case the market does make a turnaround. Effective hedging strategies can protect your portfolio from market volatility. RULE #14: Multi-Account Rule – Use different accounts for different markets Every market acts differently. Forex works differently to stocks. So, I like to have two different accounts for each. I like to track and trade Forex for one account and stocks for another. Having too many eggs in one basket, will skew the portfolio and your track record – due to the sporadic and different movements with each set of markets. So, diversify your portfolios across different asset classes and markets to manage risk. RULE #15: Check Up Rule – Regularly monitor your portfolio’s performance The markets are always changing including: Algorithm New volume being injected in the markets Dynamics of demand and supply This causes a shift in different market environments and echoes into the financial world. Therefore, you need to regularly review your portfolio. This will help you to realign it with your goals, statistics, drawdown & reward management as well as your risk tolerance and goals. RULE #16: Correlation Rule – Understand and monitor the correlation between assets Markets are generally positively correlated. This means, they tend to move in the same direction. If you see a large bank company going up in price and you go long, the chances are good that other banking companies are also going up in price (within the main stock market). When you understand correlation between stocks, forex, indices, commodities etc… You can find more high probability trades which will better diversify your portfolio, reduce your risk and you’ll be exposed to other market opportunities in similar markets. Told you it will be worth it! Save this, print it out and keep it by you. These are the most important money management rules I believe are necessary to know as a trader. Below is the summary of them again, with the subheading. If you found this helpful, please send let me know in the comments. 16 Most NB* Money Management Rules RULE #1: The 2% Rule – Never risk more than 2% of your trading capital RULE #2: The Probability Rule – Classify trades as high, medium, or low probability RULE #3: 20% Drawdown Rule – Halt trading at a 20% loss to avoid deeper slumps RULE #4: NEVER risk money you can’t afford RULE #5: The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Apply a time-based stop-loss rule to limit losses RULE #6: The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Use a 1:1 trailing stop-loss to protect profits RULE #7: Half off Rule – Take half your profits early to secure gains RULE #8: The 1% Margin Rule – Limit margin use to 1% of your account to control risk RULE #9: The Intraday Stop Rule – Set an intraday rule to know when to stop trading for the day RULE #10: Forex NEWS Rule – Stay off the market during high-impact news events RULE #11: The Risk-Reward Rule – Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:1.5 RULE #12: The 20% Golden Rule – Never expose your portfolio to more than 20% RULE #13: The Hedgehog Rule – Don’t be too long or too short -Hedge your positions RULE #14: Multi-account Rule – Use different accounts for different markets RULE #15: Check Up Rule – Regularly monitor your portfolio’s performance RULE #16: Correlation Rule – Understand and monitor the correlation between assets
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
My Personal Encounter With The Gambler's Fallacy in Trading I wanted to share a personal experience that taught me a valuable lesson about the gambler's fallacy in trading. It's a cautionary tale that highlights the importance of staying rational. So, picture this: I was on a losing streak in my nasdaq100 trades. I had suffered a string of losses that hit my confidence hard. I was frustrated, and the urge to 'make it all back' was gnawing at me. This is where the gambler's fallacy crept in. The gambler's fallacy is the false belief that past outcomes affect future probabilities. In trading, this translates to thinking that after a series of losses, the next trade must be a winner. So, against my usual strategy, I put all my eggs in one basket. Mind you, this was when nasdaq100 was drastically sinking. In my mind, it was "due" for a reversal, and i was convinced that this trade was my ticket out of the losing streak. I blatantly ignored the fact that each trade is independent and the market doesn't care about my past losses. I went all-in on that trade, ignoring risk management, stop-loss orders, and any logical reasoning. the result? the market continued its downward trend, and my account took a massive hit. The money I had worked so hard to accumulate vanished in a matter of hours. It was a humbling experience, to say the least. I had fallen into the trap of emotional trading, allowing frustration and the gambler's fallacy to guide my decisions. Instead of focusing on a solid trading strategy, i let impulsive thinking dictate my moves. The takeaway here is crystal clear: trading is not about "making up for losses" in one grand trade. It's about strategic planning, risk management, and staying rational even in the face of losses. The market doesn't owe us anything. I've since rebuilt my trading approach from the ground up. I emphasize disciplined strategies, risk management, and staying emotionally detached from trades. It's been a tough lesson, but one that's made me a more informed and emotionally mature. The gambler's fallacy is a powerful psychological trap that can cost you dearly. Always remember that each trade is a new opportunity, independent of past outcomes. Let's keep learning and growing together in the world of trading. Remember, the gambler's fallacy is a real thing and it's a very "ignored" psychological trap in trading.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Education
by lazyluchi
Inflation Wears Out Its Welcome in JapanHas anybody ever told you to be careful what you wish for because you might get it? Well, the Bank of Japan appears to be in one of those situations today. Japan spent three decades oscillating into and out of deflation. As such, when inflation started to rise in 2022, the BOJ was initially thrilled. Finally deflation was coming to an end, and inflation was heading up to a target of 2.5%. The problem is that inflation didn’t stop heading higher at 2.5%. It’s now up to 4.2% excluding fresh food and energy. In a nation with a large elderly population where many people are on fixed incomes, having inflation too high is just as bad has having it too low. But why should the rest of the world care what happens to Japan’s inflation rate? For starters, Japan has the world’s fourth largest economy, and what happens to the yen and to Japanese bond yields is of worldwide consequence. Beginning in 2012, the BoJ launched a mega quantitative easing program – four times bigger than what the Federal Reserve did relative to the respective size of their economy. This QE program sent the yen plunging as the BoJ also capped 10-year Japanese government bond yields. But recently, they have softened the cap, sending not only Japanese bond yields higher but raising the cost of long-term borrowings all around the world, including in the United States and Europe. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
TVC:JP10YEducation
by CME_Group
Decoding Forex Currency Nicknames: Stories Behind the Symbols 💰 In the dynamic realm of forex trading, currencies often go by intriguing nicknames that reflect their historical, cultural, or economic significance. Understanding these popular currency nicknames not only adds a touch of flair to your trading knowledge but also provides insights into the stories behind the market's most traded pairs. This article delves into the fascinating world of currency nicknames, offering a glimpse into the unique monikers that traders use daily. Decoding Currency Nicknames Currency nicknames offer a glimpse into the cultural and economic fabric of a nation, often deriving from historical events, national symbols, or prevailing sentiments. Here are two prime examples: 1."Greenback" - United States Dollar (USD): The United States dollar earned the moniker "greenback" due to its distinct green color on the back of the banknotes. This nickname emerged during the American Civil War when the U.S. government issued fiat money in the form of Demand Notes, which had a green tint. The greenback represents one of the most widely recognized and traded currencies globally. 2."Pound Sterling" - British Pound (GBP): The British pound earned its nickname "pound sterling" from the Latin word "libra," which referred to a unit of weight. The term "sterling" originated from Old English and meant "strong" or "of high quality." Together, they emphasize the currency's historical ties to both weight and value. The pound sterling's rich history and its use as a benchmark in global finance make it a prominent player in the forex market. Significance of Currency Nicknames 1.Cultural Insight: Currency nicknames provide a cultural window into the countries they represent. Understanding these nicknames can offer a deeper appreciation of the economic and historical factors that shape a nation's identity. 2.Quick Communication: Traders often use nicknames for efficiency and convenience in communication. Referring to currencies by their nicknames streamlines conversations and allows for more seamless transactions. 3.Market Insight: Some nicknames can also provide insight into a currency's performance. For instance, a nickname that implies strength might suggest the currency's positive economic outlook. Examples of Currency Nicknames 1."Loonie" - Canadian Dollar (CAD): 2."Aussie" - Australian Dollar (AUD): Currency nicknames offer a window into the rich tapestry of history, culture, and economics that shape the global forex market. By understanding these monikers, traders gain not only a unique perspective but also a deeper connection to the currencies they trade. As you navigate the exciting world of forex, remember that each currency has its own story to tell, and their nicknames add a colorful layer to that narrative. 🌏💱🎙 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
7
KOG - JACKSON HOLE Part 1Jackson Hole Symposium: What is the Jackson Hole Symposium? The Jackson Hole symposium (Economic Policy Symposium) is held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming USA. It is an event attended by the worlds top financial professionals including ministers, bankers and academics. It is a closed event so no press are allowed access to the meetings or talks. Instead, press conferences are held throughout the event where any comments from financial professionals usually move the markets and cause extreme volatility. This is not the usual analysis we provide. Instead, what we wanted to show you is the last 3-4yrs of market data illustrated on the charts, giving you an idea of what this event can do and cause on the markets. In this example, on Gold. So, lets start with last year, 2021. We can see the price was at a similar price point to where we are today, just slightly higher at around the 1780 level. The early sessions were quiet, however, after a retest of the low look at the aggressive move to the upside! Price started at 1780 and the move completed at 1836. 500+ pip move in a matter of days. Lets look at the top right chart, 2020. Again, look at the choppy price action, the whipsaw up and down, then the rested of the low before an aggressive move to the upside. Price started at 1904 and the move completed at 1994. 900pip movement in a matter of days. Now 2019, a slow start in the early sessions, all of a sudden, a rested on the low and then another aggressive move to the upside. Price started at 1491 and completed the move 1557. Over 500pip movement in a matter of days! What we’re trying to show you here is that its going to be a very difficult event to trade for new traders. Its going to be choppy, its going to be volatile, its going to whipsaw and its likely to move. If you’re caught the wrong side of it its going to kill your account. Best practice here is to let the market make the moves it wants to, wait for the price to settle in whatever level they want to drive it to, once this has happened then look for the setup to get in to the trade. Hope this helps. As always, trade safe. KOG
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by KnightsofGold
32
Removing the Guesswork from Trading: Is Trading Gambling?Hello traders of @TradingView community! Today, let's delve into a question that often arises in the trading: Is trading really just another form of gambling? While both trading and gambling involve risk and speculation, they differ fundamentally in their approaches and outcomes. Trading, unlike gambling, is not about chance or luck. It's about making informed decisions based on analysis, strategy, and market trends. Successful traders rely on research, technical and fundamental analysis, and risk management to guide their actions. They aim to identify patterns and trends that increase their probabilities of making profitable trades. On the other hand, gambling is typically a game of chance where the outcome is largely unpredictable. Whether you're playing roulette or rolling dice, the result is random, and your chances of winning are often determined by luck. While some aspects of trading might resemble gambling to an outsider, the key difference is the level of control and analysis involved. Traders use various tools and methodologies to minimize uncertainty and make calculated decisions. They set entry and exit points, incorporate stop-loss orders, and diversify their portfolios to manage risk. Traders focus on developing and executing long-term strategies, steadily building profits over time. In contrast, gambling often entails short-term bets with instant outcomes. Unlike gambling, trading emphasizes risk management. Traders implement stop-loss orders and diversification to protect their investments, showcasing their control over potential losses. In conclusion, trading is far from gambling. It's an intricate practice that requires education, analysis, discipline, and continuous learning. While both involve risk, trading is grounded in strategy and knowledge, allowing traders to manage their risk and work towards achieving their financial goals.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Vestinda
The Forex Trader: A Mirror Reflection of Your Soul Do you agree with my "text"? Do you believe you are only as rich as you make yourself. I promise that only makes sense if you read it 5 times. I was dancing through my notes and I thought about this one great topic. Because I remember looking a very clear mirror and I could see every pore on my face. The thing about mirrors are: They never lie! What you see is basically what you get. I'm about to dive into the intriguing concept that a forex trader might just be a mirror reflection of their soul. Picture this: you're sitting in front of your computer screen, sipping on your favorite coffee, analyzing currency pairs, and making those split-second decisions that could either boost your account balance or send it plummeting. It's a rollercoaster of emotions – excitement, fear, elation, frustration – all bundled into a few moments. But have you ever considered that your reactions to these market movements might reveal something deeper about who you are? Just like the forex market, life is a series of ups and downs. Your ability to weather through drawdowns and stick to your trading strategy reflects your resilience in the face of adversity. If you're quick to jump ship at the first sign of trouble, you might be reflecting a tendency to avoid challenges in your personal life as well. Hmm, The real question is, Are you? Let me scrabble through more points: Risk Appetite: How much risk are you comfortable taking? Do you prefer the adrenaline rush of high-stakes trading, or do you opt for a more conservative approach? Your risk tolerance in trading can be a reflection of your general outlook on life – are you a risk-taker or someone who prefers the safe path? Emotional Control: Ah, emotions – the heart and soul of every forex trade. How you manage your feelings when a trade goes south or when a huge profit lands in your lap mirrors your emotional regulation in other life situations. Can you keep your cool, or do you tend to let your emotions dictate your decisions? Little secret, It's the later for me. I'm working on it though. Adaptability: The forex market is known for its unpredictability. Successful traders know how to adapt to changing circumstances and switch strategies when needed. This ability to pivot can mirror your openness to change and innovation in your personal life. Self-Reflection: Every trade offers a lesson, whether it ends in profit or loss. Traders who take the time to analyze their decisions and learn from their mistakes are likely to be reflective individuals outside of trading as well. This introspective nature can lead to personal growth and development. In the end, forex trading can be seen as a microcosm of life itself (everyone says this). The way you navigate the market's highs and lows, your risk management strategies, and your emotional responses are all windows into your character. Just like a mirror reflects your physical appearance, your trading behavior might be revealing more about your inner self than you realize. So, the next time you are analyzing charts and making trading decisions, take a moment to reflect on what your trading style might say about you. Are you a bold risk-taker, a patient strategist, or something entirely different? Embrace the journey of self-discovery that forex trading offers – after all, the market might just be reflecting your soul back at you. Happy soul-searching! Haha..
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Education
by lazyluchi
1
The Metaphorical Part Of Forex Trading Hey there, I saw a cool picture on google and thought I share. PS: It has nothing to do with this post. Unless of cos', You see me as a friend. Today, I'm diving into the exhilarating world of forex trading, where currencies dance to the rhythm of global markets. Now, you might be wondering, what in the world does forex trading have to do with life? Well, my curious friend, let's embark on a metaphorical journey that will unveil the uncanny similarities between trading currencies and the art of navigating our own lives. Imagine life as a grand voyage, and within this voyage, we're all explorers seeking to make the most of our experiences. Just like forex traders, we're confronted with an array of choices, decisions, and opportunities that mirror the fluctuating exchange rates of various currencies. So, grab your compass of curiosity and let's set sail! In the forex realm, currencies are the heartbeats of trade. Similarly, relationships are the currencies of our lives. Just as we assess the potential of a currency pair, we evaluate relationships to determine their value and potential for growth. Like trading, some relationships might yield high returns, while others may not pan out as expected. Learning when to hold on and when to let go becomes a critical skill in both markets. Forex markets are notorious for their volatility, swinging wildly with the ebb and flow of economic news. Our lives are no strangers to volatility either – unexpected challenges, surprises, and opportunities can come at any time. Just as traders develop resilience to market fluctuations, we learn to adapt and thrive amidst life's unpredictability. Forex traders are masters of risk management, carefully calculating their exposure to potential losses. In life, we also juggle risks – the risk of stepping out of our comfort zones, of pursuing dreams, of investing in ourselves. Both forex and life teach us that taking calculated risks, while daunting, can lead to incredible rewards. Forex traders pore over charts and patterns to predict price movements. Similarly, we can engage in introspective "technical analysis" to evaluate our past choices, identify patterns, and make informed decisions for the future. Recognizing personal trends and behaviors can be as valuable as spotting trends in the market. This is my all time favourite, The forex market rewards patience and timing. Similarly, life's opportunities often come to those who wait and seize the right moment. Just as traders wait for the perfect entry point, we wait for the right chances to unfold before taking action.Successful forex traders keep their eyes on the long-term horizon rather than getting caught up in short-term gains or losses. Likewise, we should focus on our life's big picture and values, rather than being bogged down by temporary setbacks or momentary victories. So, there you have it, whether you're delving into forex trading or navigating the intricate pathways of life, remember this metaphor: just like in the forex market, we must equip ourselves with knowledge, resilience, and a willingness to learn . As we trade our way through life's currencies – relationships, opportunities, challenges – let's embrace the journey, grow from our experiences, and craft a life portfolio that reflects the richness of our existence. Happy new week. Let's kill it!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Education
by lazyluchi
Empowering Financially Deprived Female Traders: A Letter of Hope Introduction Dear Fellow Trader, I hope this letter finds you in good health and spirits, despite the challenges you might be facing on your journey as a financially deprived female trader. I want you to know that you are not alone in this struggle, and your determination to navigate the world of trading is truly inspiring. In this letter, I aim to offer you guidance, support, and practical insights to help you overcome the hurdles and seize opportunities in the trading landscape. Acknowledging Your Strength First and foremost, let me commend your courage. Being a female trader in a field traditionally dominated by men is an accomplishment in itself. Your presence challenges stereotypes and contributes to the diversification of the trading world. Embrace your uniqueness and the fresh perspectives you bring to the table. The Power of Education Education is your greatest asset. In a rapidly evolving market, staying updated with the latest trends, tools, and strategies is crucial. Fortunately, the digital age has made education more accessible than ever. Take advantage of online courses, webinars, and educational resources tailored to traders of all experience levels. Knowledge will empower you to make informed decisions and minimize risks. Building a Support Network Surround yourself with like-minded individuals who understand your journey. Join trading communities, both online and offline, where you can exchange ideas, seek advice, and share experiences. A strong support network can provide emotional encouragement, practical insights, and valuable connections that can significantly boost your trading career. Setting Realistic Goals Dream big, but ground your aspirations in reality. Set achievable short-term and long-term goals that reflect your financial situation, risk tolerance, and market knowledge. Tracking your progress against these goals will help you stay focused and motivated, even during challenging times. Mastering Risk Management One of the most critical aspects of trading is managing risk effectively. Protecting your capital should be your top priority. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and diversify your portfolio to spread risk. Utilize stop-loss orders and position sizing techniques to limit potential losses while allowing room for gains. Leveraging Technology Technology has revolutionized trading, leveling the playing field for traders of all backgrounds. Make use of trading platforms, analytical tools, and algorithms to enhance your decision-making process. Automated trading systems can help execute trades even when you’re not actively monitoring the market. Embracing Resilience Financial markets are inherently volatile, and losses are a part of the game. What sets successful traders apart is their ability to bounce back from setbacks. Develop resilience by learning from your mistakes, analyzing your failures, and adapting your strategies accordingly. Remember that every loss is a lesson that brings you closer to success. Continuous Adaptation Adaptability is key to survival in the trading world. Market conditions change, and strategies that worked before might not be effective today. Stay flexible and open-minded, willing to adjust your approach based on new information and evolving trends. Seeking Mentorship Mentorship can provide invaluable guidance based on the firsthand experiences of seasoned traders. Finding a mentor who understands your challenges and aspirations can accelerate your learning curve and help you avoid common pitfalls. Their insights can be a beacon of light during uncertain times. Navigating Bias and Discrimination Unfortunately, bias and discrimination still persist in the trading world. As a female trader, you might encounter skepticism or condescension from some quarters. Use these experiences as fuel to prove your capabilities. Let your performance speak louder than any prejudices. Conclusion In closing, dear trader, remember that your journey is a testament to your strength, resilience, and determination. The financial struggles you face today do not define your future. With the right knowledge, mindset, and support, you can overcome challenges and achieve success beyond your wildest dreams. Embrace each day as an opportunity to grow, learn, and thrive in the world of trading. Stay focused, stay hungry, and never lose sight of your potential. Sincerely, A Supportive Fellow Trader
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Education
by lazyluchi
3
TRADING IN PRICE CHANNELSPrice spends most of its time in trading ranges. On the chart, this results in the formation of a horizontal, ascending or descending trading channel. Trading channels are one of the most common and important chart patterns. Indeed, in most cases, price tends to consolidate in a limited range, which is a manifestation of buying activity by market participants. What is a Trading Channel? A trading channel, whether upward or downward, is simply the range in which price moves. It creates areas of resistance and support in the market where buy and sell orders cause a rebound to the center of the range itself. Building a trading channel is very simple. Just draw a trend line, then project a parallel one. Once a trading channel is formed, you can enter the market whenever price touches one of the channel boundaries. This approach works best inside horizontal trading channels. If you are in an ascending or descending trading channel, I suggest you only trade in the direction of the main trend. How to use trading channels to determine the best entry points into the market? Let's discuss the subtleties of this trading style. We will talk about how to build a trading channel, what are the pros and cons of trading in these channels. The Idea of Trading in Price Channels The price of a pair on the currency market fluctuates within a certain corridor, which can be represented as a channel. Moving price in the channel is the main principle on which all channel trading strategies are built. Trading in the price channel brings profit in case of a clear definition of the channel in which the price moves. For this purpose, a certain timeframe is taken, and on it the levels, to which the price reached but did not cross them, are determined. These levels are the upper and lower boundaries of the corridor. And herein lies the main problem for many traders - the correct building of the price channel. In fact, a regular chart building is enough for trading, and a regular chart corridor is already the simplest trading strategy that does not require additional tools for confirmation. Nevertheless, many traders find it necessary to use a variety of ways to confirm the signal. These can be candlestick patterns, various level indicators, divergences, etc. Two Situations Are Considered In Trading In Channels: price has broken the channel border; price did not break the channel border. At the same time, each strategy has its own breakout criteria and its own rules for opening positions. In addition, the type of channel used for trading plays a very important role. The most common types of channels are ascending and descending channels. The Advantages Of Including Channels In Your Trading Arsenal: - low trading risks; - simple rules, understanding of which will not be a problem for a beginner; - high profitability. However, like any other method, the trading in the channels requires clear adherence to the rules of opening positions and compliance with money management. There Are A Number Of Key Points To Keep In Mind When Trading In Channels: - the best timeframes for trading are M30 and higher; - positions are opened at bounce from the borders inside the channel; - the channel is built in the direction of the trend: upward - by two minimums and one maximum, downward - vice versa; - a position is opened only after the price reaches the channel boundary; - it is allowed to place a pending order outside the channel in case of its breakout. In many cases, the effectiveness of trading signals in the trading channels depends on the stability of the channel. If there are signs of a trend change or the end of the channel, it is better not to trade. If the price breaks the channel border and goes outside of it, in most cases, the price movement will be approximately equal to the width of the previous corridor. This gives the trader an opportunity to plan and open a trade in time. The efficiency of trading in channels increases if you use oscillators, with the help of which you can determine price reversals. As well as the validity of the breakdown of the corridor boundaries. Some examples: One recent example is gold. Gold is in a descending channel. And it was possible to sell when the price reached the upper border of the descending channel. The upper border of the channel coincided with resistance, which was a double confirmation. Let's also focus on the oil. The price has formed a beautiful channel. The price bounced from round levels and from the channel border. In the article about demand and supply I mentioned that the price is at the supply zone and it can bounce from the zone and the price did go down breaking the ascending channel which can be a sign of a trend reversal. On the New Zealand dollar, we had two beautiful selling opportunities. Here too, as in gold, the channel border coincides with resistance, which gives additional confidence in the trade.
Education
by Lingrid
11
What are Fakeouts, Shakeouts and Whipsaws?Let's get straight into the three cronies of trading disaster when taking and holding a position. Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) A fake-out occurs when the price of a market appears to break out of a certain chart pattern. This could be a trendline, support, or resistance level. But then quickly reverses and retreats back within the pattern. Shake-out: (Where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) A shake-out is a scenario where the market becomes highly volatile and the price moves rapidly to levels that trigger the stop-loss orders of many traders. Stop-loss orders are pre-set risk levels at which traders automatically exit their positions to limit their losses. A shake-out is designed to "shake out" weak or inexperienced traders from the market. When stop-loss orders are triggered, it can create a temporary spike in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. Once these traders are "shaken out," the market might resume its original trend. You’ll see this most commonly with low liquid, high volatile markets like Penny Stocks or Penny Cryptos. Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day). Whipsaw refers to a situation where the market quickly changes its direction within a relatively short period, often during a single trading day. This can cause confusion and losses for traders who are caught off-guard. Whipsaws can occur due to various factors, such as sudden news releases, economic data surprises, or changes in sentiment. They are characterized by sharp price movements that can make it difficult to make accurate trading decisions. Whipsaws are especially common during periods of high market uncertainty or when there's a lack of a clear trend. Let’s create a quick summary of the three: Fake-out: (When the price makes a false breakout of a chart pattern) Shake-out: (where the market is highly volatile and the price moves to levels that hits their stop losses and gets traders out of their trades) Whipsaw: (This is where the market will change its most prominent direction within the day).
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
The Power of the 3 Seconds Rule in TradingIn the fast-paced world of financial trading, time is often the difference between success and failure. One effective strategy that I’ve found incredibly beneficial is the 3 Seconds Rule. This rule, adaptable to virtually any life scenario and business. It’s simple… Before you make a crucial decision, you count to three. 1, 2, 3 This will help you streamline the process to execute. It’ll also stop you from hesitating, over analyses or overthinking. Let’s delve into how this can be applied. Trade Lines Up: Preparation is Key The first stage in this strategy involves setting up your trade. This includes preparing your charts, drawing the lines, placing indicators, and identifying potential entry points. This will help you to map out your trade plan in advance/ Also you’ll be able to respond quickly. The 3 Seconds Rule here encourages swift action. Once your analysis is complete and everything lines up, count to three, and finalize your setup. This helps to avoid second-guessing your analysis, which can lead to paralysis by analysis. Place Your Trading Levels: Define Your Parameters Next open your trading platform and count to three. 1, 2, 3. Then put in your trading levels. These levels include the entry point, stop loss, take profit point, volume of trade, and whether it’s a long or short position. This ensures that your predefined strategy is implemented promptly. This is critical in a market environment where prices can change rapidly. Just Take the Trade: Execution is Crucial The final stage involves actually executing the trade. You’ve done your analysis, prepared your charts, identified your levels, and now it’s time to make the trade. Again, you apply the 3 Seconds Rule. 1, 2, 3 And then click the button to execute. Like I said before, this will eliminate the fear or hesitation that can often occur at the moment of execution. By forcing yourself to take action within three seconds, you are not allowing time for doubt or fear to prevent you from following your carefully crafted trading plan. The Benefits of the 3 Seconds Rule In the world of financial trading, the 3 Seconds Rule offers numerous benefits: Eliminates hesitation: When you commit to taking action within three seconds, you will avoid becoming trapped in a cycle of overthinking that can lead to missed opportunities. Encourages decisive action: The 3 Seconds Rule compels you to make a decision quickly. Reduces stress: By making a plan and sticking to it within a set timeframe, you can minimize the anxiety and stress of waiting too long. So you got the power of the 3 Seconds Rule? 1, 2, 3, – GO!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
ORDER FLOW SIMPLIFIED✴️ What is Order flow in trading? In brief, it is the flow of trades of a major player. Order flow is searched for after liquidity has been captured or if the price enters the area of interest. Price is fractal and therefore the same areas of interest can be applied to different timeframes. The Order Flow trading method allows you to enter a trade even if you missed the original entry into the position. ✴️ How order flow is applied in trading A large market participant is able to create a zone of interest in any market, and when the price goes to this zone - it places a large flow of buy and sell orders to move the price in one or another desired direction. When the price reaches the area of interest, the large participant will start putting pressure with orders. For example, if the price comes to the sell zone of interest, a large player may start spamming sell orders, which will rebalance the orders and force the price to move in the desired direction. A trader who takes order flow into account is able to determine the direction in which the large player is pouring orders. This will allow you to enter trades in the direction of the current pressure of the large market participant, and reduce your risks. When the bearish order flow is working, the minimums are being reprinted. The situation is the opposite with a bullish order flow. ✴️ How the order flow works - So, the order flow is a manipulation of a large market participant for a position set and price movement in the desired direction. That is, we distinguish the entire momentum without pullbacks as order flow. - Very often a large player holds two trades simultaneously, one of which is a deceptive position in order to gather liquidity from the crowd. - It is difficult to enter from Order Flow point by point; it is much more effective to find an order block. - Price most often tests the Order Flow zone. - The Order Flow zone works only for one touch, you should remember that! You should not trade Order Flow when re-entering it, the efficiency will be much lower. - On higher timeframes, Order Flow looks like an order block. ✴️ How the order flow is formed To find a sell order flow, you need to check the following signs: - A structure has broken down, or there has been a liquidity grab - Liquidity has been taken - A new low has been formed, below the previous low. Confirmation of bearish order flow comes when the price touches the sell zone of interest, confirming the interest of a major market participant. Here's what to look out for to find bullish order flow: - The downward structure has been broken - Liquidity has been taken - A higher price high has been formed. In the case of a bearish confirmation, everything is exactly the same as with a bullish confirmation, only it is the other way around. When the price starts to come back after an unclosed trade of a big player and touches the bullish interest zone, leaving the order flow zone, this is the entry point. ✴️ Bearish Order Flow When a bearish order flow of a major market participant is functioning the price falls below the previous lows. During the correction we will be able to catch the entry point to buy, at the moment of liquidity refresh, when the price will recover to the orders of a large player. The price follows liquidity. Of course, it is possible that the structure will break and there will be no new lows, but statistically most often we will see movement in the past direction of the downtrend. Our goal with bearish order flow is to open smart short positions. Ideally, we should wait for a liquidity update and a test of the zone of interest. Just don't put stops too close, because close stops are often a delicious target for large market players. It is more reasonable to put a stop where the whole downtrend pattern will be broken for sure. A stop that is too close is likely to be hit by the price and you will take a loss. ✴️ Bullish Order Flow Bullish order flow occurs when asset prices rise and exceed previous highs. During correction periods, price will take liquidity off sellers. Our objective here is to catch the correction to the zone of interest to enter long positions as carefully as possible. Our priority is long trades after the test of the zone of interest and taking out the sellers' liquidity. The main thing, as in the previous case, is not to put a stop too close. Remember that stops right behind the zone will be a target for big players. According to market mechanics, large market participants need liquidity to fill their positions to one side or the other. If you want to enter a trade very precisely - it is worth paying attention to the zone of interest itself, for example, an imbalance or a order block. ✴️ Conclusions Order Flow is the traces of a major player on the price charts. When we retest from the money flow zone, we are waiting for a pullback from it in the direction of the major trend. It is more reasonable to enter pointwise from the order blocks because it is very difficult to put a short stop on the Order Flow zone and a long stop is not so favorable for us in the long term. Also, a good entry point can be an imbalance to buy or sell in imbalance points concentrated large aggregate demand or supply. The order flow in this situation will act as the main complementary indicator for entering a position.
Education
by DeGRAM
9
6 Quantifiable Trading Goals to KnowThere is one thing that will separate the winners from the losers. Knowing your numerical trading goals. When you have a back-tested and solid strategy, everything else becomes easier. You have the past and the potential future in your vision. And all you need to do is follow the rules and then keep them in check. To do this, you need to have written down your goals, drawn from your trading statistics and back-tested journals. This will give you the spine of your trading strategy and ultimately guide you on the path to sustainable profitability. There are many numbers to take in but I’m going to kickstart you with probably six of the most critical trading goals. This will help you set your own milestones for success. Number of Trades to Take in a Year (e.g., 120) You need to have some type of idea of the number of trades, you’ll execute in a year. This number can be derived from your trading strategy, time frame choice, risk tolerance, and market analysis. For instance, if you’re a swing trader focusing on weekly chart patterns and SMC, you might aim for 120 trades in a year. This equates to 10 trades per month. Maybe you want to take 60 trades with stocks, indices and commodities. Maybe you want to take another 60 trades between Forex and crypto. Make sure you have a rough number according to your stats, so you can keep on track. Number of Winners Winners and losers come with the game. So you need to identify the number of winning trades you intend to achieve in a year. Let’s say you’re aiming for a win rate of 62.5%. With the earlier goal of 120 trades in a year, you’re targeting approximately 75 winning trades (120 * 0.625). Number of Losers Losing trades are an inherent part of trading. You need to have an acceptable number of losing trades in mind. This will help you to manage risk effectively and maintain emotional equilibrium. In our example, if you’re aiming for 120 trades a year, you should look at taking around 45 losing trades. If 62.5% is your win rate then 37.5% is your losing rate (100% – 62.5%). Win Rate Your win rate represents the percentage of trades that yield profits. With a target win rate of 62.5%, this means you aim to close over half of your trades with a profit. Sure, you’re not going to bank 62.5% every week, month and year. You might have a 70% win rate one year. You might have a 55% win rate the next year. Remember, consistency is key here. But with consistency, you’ll find it’ll balance to around 62.5% win rate per year. Percentage Return Trading is relative. Doesn’t matter if you have a $10,000 (R200,000) or a $300,000 (R6,000,000) account. You need to think in percentages and not dollars. For example, if your starting capital is $10,000 and your goal is a 32% annual return, you’re targeting a profit of $3,200 (R64,000) by year-end (0.32 * $10,000). Expected Drawdown % Then we need to prepare for the drops. Drawdown refers to the reduction in your trading capital after a series of losing trades. When your portfolio goes from an all time high and takes a dip, that’s a drawdown. An expected drawdown of 20% means that you should be prepared for a decrease of up to $2,000 (R40,000) in your starting capital of $10,000 (R200,000) during the course of the year. It might come in May. It might last ‘till August. This will enable you to track your performance, manage risk effectively, and maintain focus on what truly matters. Remember consistency leads to long-term profitability.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso