10 Rules of Risk Management
Risk management is the most important aspect of any trading plan. Apart from the mathematical and strategic methodologies to employ, there are several precautions you can adopt as a trader and consider in your decision-making process.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Never forget Rule no.1.
Stick to your trading plan.
Consider the costs like spread, rollover/swap and commissions.
Limit your margin use and track available margin to avoid margin calls.
Always use Take Profit and Stop Loss orders.
Never leave open positions unattended.
Record your performance and adjust as you progress.
Avoid high volatility periods like economic news releases.
Avoid making emotional decisions when trading.
We apply risk management to minimise losses if the market tide turns against us after an event. Although the temptation of realising every opportunity is there for all traders, we must know the risks of an investment in advance to ensure we can endure if things go sour. All successful traders know and accept that trading is a complex process and an extensive risk management strategy and trading plan allow us to have a sustainable income source.
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Fundamental Analysis
From Zero to Hero: The Art of Finding Winning Crypto Projects!!!Hello there, fellow traders👨💻! As a trader, I know that choosing the right crypto project to invest in can feel like navigating a sea of uncertainty.
But fear not mateys😎!
Today, we will set sail on a journey to discover the best crypto projects.😉
I will examine critical factors to help identify the most promising crypto projects💡.
But I won't be venturing blindly into the unknown.
Oh no, I have a trusty checklist for each crypto project to guide us on our quest.
I give a score from 1 to 10 for each factor.
With this checklist in hand✅, we will be able to evaluate each crypto project based on essential factors(But I must say that the ✨ starred factors ✨ are more important in our checklist).
So let's dive into the factors.
Founders ✨: The founders' vision, expertise, reputation, leadership, and decision-making abilities are essential to a crypto project's success and sustainability.
Project's Goal ✨: The project goal is a critical component of a crypto project that defines its purpose, attracts investors, guides development, and measures success.
Source Code ✨: The importance of source code in a crypto project lies in its ability to determine its functionality, security, and transparency. Access to source code enables security experts and auditors to review the project's security measures, identify weaknesses, and recommend improvements. Open-source projects promote transparency and accountability, building trust among stakeholders. Also, new commits submitted to the project can be analyzed through the project's repository.
Token Inflation Rate ✨: The importance of a crypto project's token inflation rate lies in its impact on the token's value, liquidity, and long-term sustainability. A high inflation rate can decrease the token's value and liquidity, while a low inflation rate can promote token scarcity and sustainability.
White Paper Analysis ✨: The importance of a whitepaper in a crypto project lies in its ability to communicate the project's vision, value proposition, and technical specifications to investors. It is a marketing tool, technical specification document, project blueprint, and credibility establishment tool.
Community ✨: This is a significant factor when analyzing a crypto project. Community in a crypto project provides the ability to support the project's growth, adoption, and sustainability. A strong community can promote adoption and awareness, provide feedback and insights, offer support and resources, and promote the project's values and mission.
Tokenomics : Can determine the token's value, utility, and sustainability. Tokenomics can help balance token supply, demand, and circulation, design token utilities that incentivize user participation, and regulate token supply to promote.
Developers : They play a crucial role in a crypto project, as they are responsible for designing, building, and maintaining the project's software and infrastructure. The importance of developers in a crypto project lies in their ability to ensure the project's functionality, security, and scalability. Developers are responsible for designing, building, and maintaining the project's software and infrastructure, promoting innovation and creativity, and promoting the project's vision and values.
Venture Capital (VC) Investors : The importance of VC investors in a crypto project lies in their ability to provide the project with funding, expertise, and connections to help it grow and succeed. VC investors can help the project overcome challenges, expand its reach, and promote its legitimacy and credibility.
Competitors : Comparing a crypto project to its competitors is essential to understand its strengths and weaknesses, assess its potential for growth and profitability, identify any potential risks, and evaluate the project's unique features. These factors are critical for making a well-informed investment decision in crypto.
👆According to the factors mentioned, getting lost in this sea is challenging.👆
With this map or lantern, you will find your way to the safe shore and the treasure.💎
Warren Buffett once said, "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." In today's ever-changing financial markets, staying informed and making well-informed investment decisions is more critical than ever.
So hoist the anchor and embark on this exciting adventure together.✌🏻 With this checklist and knowledge, you'll be able to navigate the treacherous waters of the crypto market and find the projects that will lead you to the ultimate booty - success! 🙏🏻😍
Share your ideas with me💡, and if you have any questions❓, you can ask in the comments.💬
Learn and always stay updated📚.
Don't forget to invest what you can afford to lose.💸
Discretion is the greater part of valor.🤗
banks are on fire again...The banking system is bursting at the seams again. It all started with the recent series of bankruptcies of several American banks at once and it happened in just a week, which was an echo of the problems of the 2007 crisis, which, as people hoped, we were able to solve.
The main signal of the disaster was a sudden failure in the Silicon Valley bank. On March 9, people's deposits disappeared, losses totaled an incredible $42 billion, which brought out an underestimated risk in the system.
The problem was hidden in long-term bonds, in which the bank invested during a period of low interest rates and high asset prices, and when the Federal Reserve System sharply raised rates, the bank began to have problems. As a result, the bank was left with huge losses that were not previously recognized due to the fact that American capital rules do not require most banks to report a drop in the price of bonds that they plan to hold to maturity.
620 billion dollars – that's how many unrecognized losses were in the entire banking system of America at the end of 2022. To understand how much it is: this amount is equal to about a third of the total capital stock of American banks.
The pandemic has brought even more problems to the economy, and the banking system has become even more shaky. A large volume of new deposits poured into banks, and the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures pumped cash into the system. These deposits were directed by banks to purchase long-term bonds and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, and all this increased the risk of ruin in the event of an increase in interest rates.
Having bought bonds with depositors' funds, the bank essentially used other people's funds, but the problem was not that, but that holding bonds to maturity requires matching them with deposits, and as rates rise, competition for deposits increases. At large banks, such as JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America, rising rates tend to increase their earnings thanks to floating-rate loans. However, in about 4,700 small and medium-sized banks with total assets of $10.5 trillion, rising rates tend to reduce their margins, which helps explain why stock prices of some banks have fallen.
Another problem for banks is the risk that depositors will start withdrawing their deposits during the crisis, which will force the bank to cover the outflow of deposits by selling assets. If this happens, the bank's losses loom, and its capital stock may look comforting today, but most of its filling will suddenly become an accounting fiction. That is why the Federal Reserve System acted this way last weekend, being ready to provide loans secured by bank bonds. By providing loans with good collateral to stop the flight, the Fed is right, but such easy conditions come with certain costs. By creating the expectation that the Fed will take on the risks of interest rate changes in a crisis, they encourage banks to behave recklessly.
The coming year requires regulators to make the system safer and less risky for the people. It is necessary to abolish some strange rules that do not require reporting and answers for increased risks that relate to small and medium-sized banks,
Now the government has announced its intention to rescue depositors of the Silicon Valley Bank, which indicates that such banks carry a systemic risk and they need to be rescued in order not to destroy the entire economy of the country. But saving depositors is only half the job, in order to eliminate the repetition of today's and past problems, it is necessary to introduce the same accounting and liquidity rules that big banks follow, as is the case in Europe, and will have to submit plans to the Fed for their orderly resolution if they fail.
These decisions and actions concern not only the United States, these rules should require the entire banking sector to recognize the risks associated with an increase in interest rates. Unrealized losses carry the risk of bankruptcy and banks with such losses should be confirmed by more thorough control and verification than those who do not have such losses.
Timely testing will help to avoid bankruptcy, which would simulate a situation in which the bank's bond portfolio is released to the market, while rates rise even more. After that, it would be possible to determine whether the system has sufficient capital to avoid bankruptcy or not.
Banks, of course, will resist additional control, increasing capital reserves, but all this will help to improve the quality of system security.
Depositors and taxpayers around the world face intense fear, and they should not live with the fear and fragility that they thought had gone down in history many years ago.
The Story Behind Bulls and BearsHello @TradingView family , this is @Vestinda, and let's have some fun and enjoy the markets together.
Vestinda is driven to offer our knowledge in developing winning strategies and make traders tasks easier.
This is The Story About Bulls and Bears. Bulls can lift things up, Bears can eat you for lunch.
Who Are The "Bulls" And The "Bears" In The Market
The terms "bulls" and "bears" are included in the trader's slang as the main categories of players in the market. Understanding the technique of the game will help you to understand the intricacies of how the market works.
"Bulls" are buying investors. Like their totem, they lift the enemy up on the horns. "Bulls" buy, wait for the rising rate and sell at a higher price. They dream of a prosperous economy: the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the GDP, the faster markets grow. Warren Buffett - the most famous representative of the bulls .
The Bears play on the opposite side. They earn on the depreciation, in a fading economy. Their ideal world is high unemployment, low GDP and large-scale crises.
It all starts long before the collapse of the market: the “bears” buy on credit and immediately resell, artificially creating a drop in prices. After the price becomes cheaper, they are purchased again, but at a lower price, and the debt is repaid. The difference between the first and second purchases is the profit of the bears.
💲 How Bulls Make Money On The Market 💲
"Bulls" buy, when they are sure that the market will go up. Examples of situations where this is possible:
🟣 the shareholder enterprise has published a financial report, and the figures exceeded forecasts;
🟣 the new reform allows to pay less taxes, thereby increasing profits;
🟣 the company has introduced a new product, which, according to analysts, will be in great demand;
🟣 the level of well-being, salary and solvency of the population are growing, which has a beneficial effect on the company's profit.
Bullish trades take time – you have to wait to make money. "Bears" are distinguished by shorter trades and the prospect of quick earnings.
A red flag for the bulls is an increase in prices by 20% from the lows and the presence of strong prerequisites for further growth. The most favorable moment comes when there are more buyers than sellers on the market.
📍 There Are 4 Key Phases Of A Bull Market:📍
1️⃣ "bearish" trends are gradually fading;
2️⃣ the backdrop of negative news has ended, but there is no confidence in future growth yet, the market is moving sideways, the growth of prices alternates with a fall;
3️⃣ the economy is going up, volatility is decreasing, investors are optimistic;
4️⃣ the peak of growth, traders make easy profits.
The market trends are cyclical, a bull market becomes overbought over time and inevitably turns into a bear market. The move up can be uneven, with periods of pullbacks and corrections, that provide an opportunity to profit on counter-trend trades.
As a rule, prices didn't rise as quickly and unpredictably as they fall. Therefore, transactions in the "bullish" market are characterized by a longer period, the so-called "long positions". Both own and borrowed money, shares and other assets, which are returned after closing, act as collateral.
Long positions are considered more stable, predictable and calm. Therefore the majority of market participants are "bulls" (or consider themselves so). In an uptrend, it's easy to choose an investment because almost everything goes up. However, the "bulls" need to be careful and remember, that there is no eternal growth, the market can be oversaturated at any moment, turning in the opposite direction. It is important for conservative traders to exit the game on time.
💲 How Bears Make Money On The Market 💲
The bears enter the arena during a downturn in the economy and prices. Their tactic is to sell at the beginning of a downtrend and then buy at the end of a downtrend. If they guess the high and low points of the bear market, they will receive the maximum margin.
Examples of situations, that will play into the hands of this category of traders:
🟣 there were large-scale economic crises, force majeure situations, natural disasters, epidemics, wars;
🟣 the shareholder enterprise found itself in the center of a scandal or changed its general director;
🟣 sales of the new product failed.
A "bear" market comes into its own, when prices fall by 20% from the maximum.
There are 4 main stages of the trend:
1️⃣ the bull market is oversaturated and goes into overbought phase;
2️⃣ against the backdrop of negative sentiment, prices fall sharply, and trading activity decreases, panic arises on the market;
3️⃣ prices fell quite strongly, but continue to gradually decline, at this time “bears” enter the market en masse;
4️⃣ seduced by cheaper prices, conservative investors become more active, due to which the market gradually turns in the opposite direction.
Thus, the "bear" market is gradually replaced by a "bullish" one.
Can a Bull become a Bear?
In fact, these divisions are rather arbitrary, they were created by exchange slang. Officially, in the market, you do not need to indicate yourself in which category you belong, so no need to be a bull or a bear all your life.
Traders' strategies are good because they can be adapted or completely changed to specific conditions on the exchange. It's not always possible to sell shares at the maximum or buy at the minimum price, so you have to adjust to the average attitude. Therefore, a “bull” can become a “bear”, just like a “bear” can become a “bull”.
Conclusion: What are Bulls and Bears in Trading?
Bulls and Bears are two sides of the stock market. Bulls are traders who believe that the stock prices will go up, while bears are traders who think that the stock prices will go down. In trading, these two forces are constantly at work, and understanding their roles can help you make better decisions when it comes to investing. Bulls and Bears play an important role in trading as they provide insight on the direction of a particular security or market trend. By understanding their roles in trading, investors can more accurately predict future price movements and make more profitable trades.
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THE MOST USEFUL TRADING SITES ...and how to utilize themIn this post, I will share the some of the most useful trading sites that are available to you and how you are able to utilize them to your advantage whether it's for fundamentals, charting, analysis, performance tracking, news events or just to follow your favorite professionals and their ideas & education that they share publicly.
First and foremost, if you haven't made this your PRIMARY trading platform, I want to encourage you to use and SUBSCRIBE to TRADINGVIEW
As we all evolve as traders, I'm sure we can all relate to one thing in common which is hard work and dedication. Trading is one of the hardest professions out there and without hard work, practice and dedication, we know that 90% of traders fail to make it in this industry. TRADINGVIEW gives you all the resources you need to be able to become one of the 10% as it enables you to become a content creator, it gives you a community to research ideas, you're able to watch livestreams, catch news flows, back test & analyze your own strategies and most importantly of all, you have direct support team to help guide you by sharing their own personal trading experiences, publicly as well as privately. Whether your choice of market is Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Bonds, Futures, Commodities or Yields, TRADINGVIEW has all the tools to be able get you well on your journey to become a professional trader.
See Figure 1: Subscriptions
WWW.MYFXBOOK.COM
MYFXBOOK has a variety of different tools to use ranging anywhere from position size calculators, COT data (Commitment of traders), Broker spreads/quotes/volumes, news flows, correlations and most importantly, account linked performance analysis. You may be a full time trader or a part time trader with a 9-5 job, either way analyzing your entries, exits, RR ratio, drawdowns etc. are necessary to find what works and what doesn't. Trading is about probabilities and if you're not making money in 25 trades, you need to reanalyze and change your approach. Myfxbook.com allows you to link your trading platform to breakdown your performance, ultimately being your own coach to find the approach that suits you the best.
See Figure 2: Performance Stats
WWW.TRADINGECONOMICS.COM
As many different crises happen throughout the world (especially the most recent ones within the last few years), understanding how the Federal Reserve operates to manage monetary policy is key to get an edge in your positions in the forex market. TRADINGECONOMICS gives you all the accurate information needed to be able to forecast and research throughout 196 countries like, economic indicators, exchange rates, stock market indexes, government bond yields and commodity prices. Micro and Macro economics are a big part of how this world operates and having access to all the most important information that drives the Feds decisions due to the economy being split between these two realms are valuable as they could be bridged together for more accurate forecasting.
See Figure 3: Inflation Rates/GDP Growth (By Country)
WWW.FOREXLIVE.COM
FOREXLIVE has many different helpful resources to keep you up to date in the market no matter what time zone or trading session you take part in. As our lives are busy with family, day jobs, business endeavors or simply being in different time zones, you may not be able to watch all sessions play out and in fact, taking a break from the screen is healthy for your mind and emotions. The great thing about FOREXLIVE is that you are able to read Session Wraps to keep you up to date with a summary after each session (Asian, European, U.S) completes. Psychology is a big part of why a trader either succeeds or fails which balancing your time on and off the markets are important to detach your emotions from your positions. Set a plan for how many times you will scan the charts a day and fill that in between time with activities like exercising, reading, chores, spending time with your family, going for a walk and much more.
See Figure 4: Session Wraps
WWW.INVESTOPEDIA.COM
INVESTOPEDIA was founded in 1999 headquartered in the heart of New York city U.S. This website provides comparisons of financial products, reviews, ratings, comparisons of different financial products and most importantly, it is a financial dictionary. With the broad range of information provided, it gives readers the confidence to manage every aspect of their financial life. Whether you're learning about money and investing for the first time or are looking to improve your knowledge and skills, anyone from an experienced investor, a business owner, a professional, an advisor, INVESTOPEDIA has all the information to build your skills.
See Figure 5: 4 Basic Things to Know About Bonds/Key Takeaways
WWW.INVESTING.COM
INVESTING.COM is a well known site that offers real-time market quotes, information about stocks, futures, options, analysis, commodities and most importantly an economic calendar. Keeping an eye out for the high impact news events will help you adapt and control the volatility during those peak hours. Another helpful aspect of this site is knowing what will drive the market mood for each upcoming week. The top 5 most important fundamental areas to watch for are explained and broken down to help your forecast and analysis so you can prepare your trade setups accordingly. Applying fundamental analysis along with technical analysis will help you become a better trader as when the high impact news events hit, markets get volatile which could cause a running profit turn into an absolute loss. Knowing when to be in or out of the market is valuable so you don't go into a draw down phase.
See Figure 6: Economic Calendar
As I only have mentioned a small number of sites that you are able to access, we all know there are so many other ones available out there, paid and free.
Researching and spending the time to read to broaden your knowledge in the financial world will only help you grow as a trader and essentially improve your trading results.
Check out some more free sites:
www.fxstreet.com
www.dailyfx.com
www.forexfactory.com
www.babypips.com
Please share the site that most helps you in by leaving it in the comment section. I would love to see the variety of ones available.
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HOW TO TRADE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS: THE SHORT GUIDEHey there, traders. One of the common tools we use for technical analysis are Fib retracements and a lot of you been asking on how to use them properly. Well, today is your lucky day :)
Fibonacci Retracement is a technical analysis tool that is widely used by traders to identify potential levels of support and resistance in financial markets, including forex markets. The tool is based on the mathematical sequence known as the Fibonacci sequence, which is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. The Fibonacci Retracement levels of 0.5 and 0.618 are two of the most important levels used in this tool. In this article, we will discuss how to use these levels for trading forex markets.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Before we dive into the specifics of using the 0.5 and 0.618 levels, let's briefly review the concept of Fibonacci Retracement. The tool is based on the idea that markets tend to retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they may continue in the same direction or reverse. The retracement levels are calculated using the Fibonacci sequence, and they represent potential levels of support or resistance. The key levels are 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786.
Using 0.5 and 0.618 Levels for Trading Forex Markets
The 0.5 and 0.618 levels are particularly important because they are close to the midpoint of a move, and they are based on the golden ratio, which is a key number in mathematics and nature. The 0.5 level represents a 50% retracement of a move, while the 0.618 level represents a 61.8% retracement.
To use these levels for trading forex markets, you can follow these steps:
Step 1: Identify a Trend
The first step is to identify a trend in the market. You can do this by analyzing the price action on a chart and looking for a series of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend.
Step 2: Draw Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Once you have identified a trend, you can draw the Fibonacci Retracement levels using a tool provided by your trading platform. You will need to identify the high and low points of the trend, and then draw the retracement levels from the high to the low in an uptrend, or from the low to the high in a downtrend.
Step 3: Watch for Reversals at 0.5 and 0.618 Levels
The 0.5 and 0.618 levels are potential levels of support or resistance, and they can act as turning points in a trend. If the price retraces to one of these levels, you should watch for signs of a reversal, such as a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern, or a divergence in an oscillator indicator or any other personal confirmation for potential entry.
Step 4: Confirm with Other Indicators
To increase the probability of a successful trade, you should confirm the potential reversal with other technical indicators, such as a moving average, a trendline, or a momentum indicator, check with the fundamentals and most importantly confirm that it aligns with your original bias regarding the pair. This will help you to avoid false signals and improve your trading accuracy.
Step 5: Enter the Trade and Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels
Since the entry was at the "Golden zone", the exit would be around the 0% Fib level. Yes, you just missed half of the trend, but it's a consistent tool that can help you get that edge over the market that you need.
We hope you found this useful and please let us know on what you would want us to cover next!
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES There are several risk management strategies that can be used to help mitigate potential losses and increase the chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor. Here are a few common risk management strategies:
Diversification is an essential risk management strategy that involves spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities. The goal of diversification is to reduce the overall risk in your portfolio by minimizing the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio.
When you diversify your portfolio, you spread your investments across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. You also diversify across different markets, such as domestic and international markets, and across different sectors, such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods.
By diversifying across different asset classes, markets, and sectors, you can help balance out potential losses in any one area. For example, if you have all of your investments in the stock market, you are vulnerable to a significant loss if the stock market experiences a downturn. However, if you have some investments in bonds or commodities, those investments may perform well during a market downturn, helping to offset your losses in the stock market.
Additionally, diversification can help you take advantage of opportunities in different markets and sectors. For example, if the stock market is experiencing a downturn, other markets, such as commodities or international markets, may be performing well. By diversifying your investments, you can take advantage of these opportunities and potentially improve your overall returns.
It's important to note that diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss, but it can help reduce the overall risk in your portfolio. However, diversification requires careful planning and ongoing management. You should regularly review your portfolio and make adjustments to ensure that your investments remain diversified and aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.
Diversification is a critical risk management strategy that can help reduce the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio. By spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities, you can help balance out potential losses and take advantage of opportunities in different areas.
Setting stop losses is a vital risk management strategy that involves setting a predetermined price point at which you will sell a security to limit potential losses on any given trade. Stop losses are commonly used by day traders and other active investors to protect their portfolio from large drawdowns and minimize potential losses.
The concept of a stop loss is relatively simple. When you buy a security, you set a price point at which you are willing to sell the security if the price drops to a certain level. This level is known as the stop loss level. If the security's price reaches the stop loss level, the security is sold automatically, limiting your potential losses.
The main benefit of using stop losses is that they allow you to manage risk effectively. By setting a stop loss, you limit the amount of money you can potentially lose on any given trade. This can help prevent large drawdowns and protect your portfolio from significant losses.
Stop losses are also valuable because they help you avoid emotional trading decisions. When you have a predetermined stop loss level, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from holding onto losing trades for too long, which can result in even greater losses.
However, it's important to note that setting stop losses is not foolproof. In fast-moving markets or markets with low liquidity, a stop loss order may not execute at the desired price, resulting in losses greater than expected. Additionally, setting stop losses too close to the market price may result in the order executing prematurely, potentially missing out on gains.
Setting stop losses is an important risk management strategy that can help protect your portfolio from significant losses. By setting a predetermined price point at which you are willing to sell a security, you can limit potential losses and avoid emotional trading decisions. However, it's essential to use stop losses carefully and adjust them as needed to ensure that they are aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.
Position sizing is an important risk management strategy that involves determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. Position sizing is critical because it helps you manage the risk in your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions.
The idea behind position sizing is to ensure that the amount of capital you allocate to each trade is proportionate to the level of risk involved. For example, if you're taking on a high-risk trade, you'll want to allocate less capital to that trade to limit the potential losses. Conversely, if you're taking on a low-risk trade, you may allocate more capital to that trade.
Position sizing can be calculated in various ways, but the most common method is to use a percentage of your account balance for each trade. For example, if you have a $100,000 account and you decide to risk 2% of your account on each trade, you would allocate $2,000 to each trade.
By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio. If you allocate too much capital to a single trade, you run the risk of losing a significant portion of your portfolio if that trade goes wrong. On the other hand, if you allocate too little capital to a trade, you may miss out on potential gains.
Position sizing is also essential for avoiding overexposure to high-risk positions. If you have too much capital allocated to high-risk trades, you run the risk of suffering significant losses if those trades go wrong. By carefully managing position sizing, you can ensure that you have a well-diversified portfolio with appropriate levels of risk.
Position sizing is a critical risk management strategy that helps you manage the risk in your portfolio by determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions.
The risk-reward ratio is an important risk management tool that can help you make more informed trading decisions. The ratio measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved in a particular trade. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses.
The risk-reward ratio is typically expressed as a ratio of the potential reward to the potential risk. For example, if you're considering a trade where the potential reward is $2,000 and the potential risk is $1,000, the risk-reward ratio would be 2:1. A favorable risk-reward ratio means that the potential reward is greater than the potential risk.
By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success. This is because you're only taking on trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. This means that even if some trades don't work out, you can still make a profit if the majority of your trades have a favorable risk-reward ratio.
One of the benefits of the risk-reward ratio is that it helps you avoid emotional trading decisions. By focusing on the potential reward relative to the potential risk, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from taking on trades with too much risk or holding onto losing trades for too long.
It's important to note that a favorable risk-reward ratio doesn't guarantee success. Even trades with a high potential reward relative to the potential risk can still result in losses. However, by focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can limit potential losses and increase your chances of success over the long run.
The risk-reward ratio is an essential risk management tool that measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses. It's important to use the risk-reward ratio in conjunction with other risk management strategies to ensure that you have a well-diversified and balanced portfolio.
Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. It involves keeping up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the market, both on a macroeconomic level and for individual securities. By staying informed, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
There are many ways to stay informed as a day trader. One of the most important is to keep an eye on financial news sources, such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal. These sources can provide valuable insights into market trends, company news, and other factors that can impact your trades. Many day traders also use social media, such as Twitter and Reddit, to stay informed about the latest news and trends in the market.
Staying informed also means staying up-to-date on changes in regulations, economic indicators, and other macroeconomic factors that can impact the market. For example, changes in interest rates, trade policies, or fiscal policy can have a significant impact on market performance. By staying informed about these factors, traders can adjust their trading strategies accordingly and make more informed trading decisions.
In addition to staying informed about the market, traders should also stay informed about their individual securities. This means monitoring earnings reports, company news, and other developments that can impact the price of a particular security. By staying informed about individual securities, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy, sell, or hold a particular security.
Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. By staying up-to-date on the latest news and developments in the market, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Staying informed involves monitoring financial news sources, social media, macroeconomic factors, and individual securities to make more informed trading decisions.
Overall, effective risk management involves a combination of these and other strategies, as well as careful planning, discipline, and a commitment to a sound trading strategy. By using these techniques and remaining focused on your goals, you can better manage risk and increase your chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor.
STAY GREEN
Why Trading Should be like Watching Paint DryIt has to be said.
If you want excitement, take $10,000 and go to Las Vegas for a day.
Trading should not bring about the same level of excitement.
I’m not saying, the entire process should be boring.
In life and with the careers you choose, you have to love what you do.
You have to keep the reward and vison in your mind, to drive you each morning.
And you need to have the discipline and integration to follow your plan each day.
So, should trading be boring? Um, yes and no.
Let’s start with where trading should be exciting and fun.
When Trading is a Thrill
This is where most people stay. They don’t take the necessary steps to open a trading account, fund it and grow their portfolios.
Instead, they stay in a feel safe and in control of their non-growing finances.
I still have members who’ve followed me for 10 years, and haven’t taken ONE single trade.
You need to jump out and take action.
The thrill of trading should be before the execution takes place.
This includes:
Analysing the markets
Optimising your strategies
Searching for high probability trades
Reading up on new trading developments and fundamentals
Monitoring your results and working on your statistics
Finding new markets and instruments to trade and add to your strategy
This part is an absolute blast. And requires no risk and no waiting.
But then, when you do find your trade line up and put in your trading levels and click buy / sell… Then…
Trading needs to be like watching paint dry or grass grow
Once you have taken your trade, set your entry, stop loss and take profit levels – you’ve done your job.
You now need to let it go and let the market to take over.
Don’t interfere…
Don’t get excited when it’s in the money.
Don’t fear when it’s going against you.
Don’t watch every tick.
It will drive you insane.
Just leave it alone.
It should be boring to even see what your trade is doing, because it’s out of your control.
If it hits your stop loss – cool… You’ve got your risk management in play.
If it hits your take profit – cool… You’ve got your reward management in play.
If you have rules to adjust your stop loss, when the market is moving in your favour – cool… You’ve got your reward management in play.
Rather focus on the next trade idea or the other bullets I mentioned in the beginning.
Keep control with what you can control and leave what you can’t control to the “stars”.
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market.
I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB.
2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May.
Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Timeline for an ideal trading dayEvery day, traders around the world wake up and begin their day with the same goal: to make money. But how do they go about doing that? What is the ideal timeline for a trading day? In this blog post, we'll outline the perfect day for a trader, from start to finish.
Wake up
It's no secret that successful traders need to be up bright and early to get a jump on the day's market action. But what many people don't realize is that there's more to it than just setting an alarm clock and getting out of bed.
To start the day off right, it's important to do some light exercises to get the body moving and the blood flowing. A quick jog or some simple calisthenics can make a big difference in terms of energy levels and mental acuity.
Just as important as physical activity is eating a healthy breakfast and drinking plenty of coffee. Breakfast provides the body with much-needed nutrients after a long night's sleep, while coffee helps wake up the mind and get those creative juices flowing.
So there you have it: the perfect way to start your day as a trader. By following these simple tips, you'll be well on your way to making money in the markets.
Check the news
As a trader, it's important to start your day by checking the news for any major announcements or news stories that could affect the market. You should find a reputable source for business news and look for any breaking news stories that could impact the stocks on your watchlist. This will help you be more informed and prepared when making trades throughout the day.
Make a watchlist
When making a watchlist of stocks to trade, there are a few key things to look for. First, you want to find stocks that are trading at new 52-week highs or lows. This can be a good indicator of a stock that is starting to move in a particular direction and could be worth watching. Another thing to look for is stocks that have unusual volume. This could be an indication that something is happening with the stock and it is worth keeping an eye on. Additionally, you want to look for stocks that are making large percentage moves. This could be an indication that there is some momentum behind the stock and it could be worth taking a closer look at. Finally, you want to identify stocks that are breaking out of chart patterns. This could be an indication that the stock is about to make a move and it would be wise to keep an eye on it.
Plan your trades
When planning your trades, the first thing you will need to do is take a look at your watchlist and identify which stocks look like they are ready to make a move. You can use a variety of indicators to help you with this, such as 52-week high/low, unusual volume, large percentage moves, or breakouts from chart patterns. Once you have identified which stocks look promising, you will then need to review your charts for those stocks and identify potential entry and exit points.
Once you have found potential entry and exit points, you will then need to calculate the risk/reward ratio for each trade. This will help you determine whether the trade is worth taking. To calculate the risk/reward ratio, you will need to find out how much you are willing to lose on the trade and how much you think you can gain. For example, if you are willing to lose $100 on a trade but think you could gain $200, then the risk/reward ratio would be 1:2.
After calculating the risk/reward ratio, you will then need to decide which trades you are going to make. You should always consider your risk tolerance when making trading decisions. Once you have decided which trades to make, you will then need to place your orders.
Execute your trades
When it comes time to execute your trades, there are a few things you need to keep in mind. First, you need to find a stock that you want to buy or sell. You can do this by researching the stock and watching for market trends. Once you have found a stock that you want to trade, you need to place an order with your broker. Your broker will then execute the trade on your behalf. Once the trade is executed, you will have a position in that stock. You can then exit your position by placing another order with your broker.
It is important to remember that you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Trading is a risky investment and there is always the potential for loss. Before making any trades, be sure to do your research and understand the risks involved.
Review your trades
As a trader, it is important to review your trades at the end of the day. This will help you learn from your successes and failures, and make better trades in the future.
When reviewing your trades, there are a few things you should keep in mind. First, consider whether you made the right decision in entering the trade. If not, what could you have done differently? Second, think about whether you exited the trade at the right time. Did you give the trade enough time to play out? Were there any warning signs that you missed? Finally, reflect on what you learned from the experience. What went well? What could have been done better?
Taking the time to review your trades at the end of each day is an important part of becoming a successful trader. By learning from your mistakes and celebrating your successes, you will be able to make more informed and profitable trades in the future.
End of day
As the end of the day approaches, it is important for traders to take some time to review their trades and assess their performance. This process allows traders to determine what they did well and what they can improve on. It also helps traders organize their thoughts and trading strategies for the next day.
Taking the time to review your trades at the end of each day is an important part of becoming a successful trader. When reviewing your trades, you should consider factors such as whether you made the right decision in entering the trade, whether you exited the trade at the right time, and what you learned from the experience. By taking the time to review your trades on a daily basis, you will be able to learn from your successes and failures and become a better trader.
After you have reviewed your trades, it is also important to take some time to relax before going to bed. This will help you be fresh and ready to start trading when the markets open. Trading is a demanding activity that requires focus and concentration. If you are not well-rested, you will not be able to perform at your best. So make sure to take some time to wind down before bed so that you can be ready to start fresh tomorrow.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Topping Pattern Example (Head and Shoulders)Hunstman is a chemical manufacturer whose earnings have plummeted over 85% compared to the first half of 2022. The chart is a prime example of a large head & shoulders pattern. Analysts expect its earning to remain depressed and the chart shows signs of Distribution over the past 2 years.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TRADING FOREX ON FRIDAY🔵 Friday is a relaxed day with the weekend ahead, followed by a working Monday. How does this affect the market? How do the big players behave on this day? Who holds positions over the weekend, taking risks? Today we will figure out what to keep in mind when trading Forex on Friday, why this day's candle is important, what tips can be extracted from the price direction on this day, and consider a few more important nuances that you are unlikely to think about.
▶️ The Friday news and the NonFarm.
Also, newbies should remember that Friday in America on the dollar there are often significant news releases, such as non-farms, which can really shake the market. So, on Friday, don't forget to check the economic calendar. Notice if there are any significant news marked with three red dashes on the calendar. So, there is no point in trading or following the market today. You can calmly leave it and go have a rest.
▶️ The direction of the movement in the second half of the day is the key to the momentum on Monday.
The next thing you need to pay attention to is the movement in the second half of Friday and up to the market close. If the price is steadily moving up in that period, we should expect it to continue on Monday. Correspondingly, if the price is steadily going down, we can expect this impulse to go on at least during the first half of Monday. And we are interested in a clear and directed movement. Why it happens, I think, is clear: the big players are buying without fear that something will happen over the weekend. In other words, they are confident in the absence of news, they confidently buy or confidently sell and this means that on Monday we can expect the momentum to continue.
▶️ Weekly candlestick formation
In general, the market does not like to change the shape of the weekly candlestick on Friday. Therefore, looking at the chart on the W1 timeframe, and looking at the practically formed weekly candlestick, we can assume what the movement will be at the end of the day. For example, this Friday, at noon on the EURUSD chart, the weekly candlestick has a rather long tail, which indicates that the bulls have already been taken out. Plus, a pretty deliberate downward price move. Even if you take into account the non-farms, often they only take out the stops and then the price recovers in just a couple of hours. So, most likely, the downside movement will continue till the end of the day or the price will stay at the same level. But we should not expect any appreciable rise.
Or the weekly candlestick by 12:00-14:00 GMT on Friday is full-body bullish, or full-body (large body, small shadows) bearish, you should not expect a significant price movement in the opposite direction till the end of the day. Accordingly, in this case, if you trade within the day, it makes no sense to look for sell trades, if the weekly candlestick is obviously bullish.
Of course, if the weekly candlestick is indistinct, for example something like a doji, the price may go in any direction, and it is difficult to predict anything reliable by such a candlestick. But a solid weekly candlestick allows to rather accurately predict the market behavior on Friday afternoon: a bearish one is down, and a bullish one is up. Or almost no change, which happens more often than we'd like.
▶️ Why is Friday so significant?
A huge amount of forex trading is intraday trading. High-frequency and intraday traders account for up to 80% of transactions in the market. And they all get out of the market before Monday.
So, who are they those people who open positions on Friday and leave them for the weekend? After all, anything can happen over the weekend. They are the big traders, various serious institutions who have more information than us or the media. At the same time, they agree to the risk of transferring trades through the weekend, they pay swaps. That is, these are very significant traders and the direction of their positions is worth watching, at the very least. Therefore, what happens on Friday often has a significant impact on the further price movement, and can give an impulse for Monday and the whole next week.
In addition, according to statistics, Friday is often the minimum or maximum point of the weekly candle. For this reason, we should expect the continuation of the directional movement of the price, if it is present in the weekly candlestick. If you take a single Friday candlestick of D1, in the case if it has any of the signals by your trading system, or by Price Action in general, it is worth paying close attention to it.
▶️ When to open a position with a signal on D1, on Friday or Monday?
When it is better to open a position in the presence of a signal on D1 at market closing on Friday evening or at market opening on Monday? The answer is simple: we open positions at market opening on Monday. If there is a gap, we trade it, and if there is no gap, we trade our set-up. Because if you open a position on Friday night, a huge gap can simply take your stops out on Monday and you will make a loss (plus your order may slip). Therefore, if you see any signal on Friday night, you better open positions on Monday.
✅ Conclusion.
In addition to the above, we should not forget that many traders close trades and fix profits on Fridays, not wanting to roll over positions through the weekend. This can be due to a possible gap, as well as with the desire to exit the position and quietly go to the weekend. So at the very end of the day if there was a clear bullish trend, price rolls back a bit (bulls fix profit), if there was clearly a bearish trend - price moves a bit higher (bears close positions).
BTCUSD: Mistakes beginner traders makeBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Some Of the Main mistake's Beginner Trader often make ;
* Trading without a trading plan. Every trader needs a trading plan.
* Trading too much, too soon.
* Emotional trading.
* Guessing.
* Not using a stop-loss order.
* Taking too big positions.
* Taking too many positions.
* Over leveraging.
GOLD: 3 Reason's why To Invest in Trading education is importantOANDA:XAUUSD
1. Get a Mentor
The best asset to your trading is having a knowledgeable mentor in your corner. Even the most well-written book or well-structured online trading course can only cover so many contingencies! When you run into a unique scenario and money -your money – is on the line, why gamble when you could ask someone more experience for help?
A mentor can ensure that your trading practices get off on the right foot, as well. If you develop bad habits or emotional triggers early on in your trading career, it’s going to be that much harder to “shake” them later on. Remember: your mentor has likely had the same fears, the same apprehensions and the same mistakes under their belt – learn from their mistakes and the student might even surpass the teacher, in time.
2 Understand What You’re Doing
We’re all guilty of coasting somewhere in life – getting the “gist” of something and just letting inertia carry you to a result. Trading, however, is not a High School literature test – it’s an important structure of rules, probabilities and information that could make you a lot of money. It’s not enough to know that cause A affects company B, you’ll need to know why that affect changes things in order to be a knowledgeable trader.
Are industry trading magazines, blogs and corporate research efforts a little dry at times? They certainly can be. That doesn’t mean they aren’t important as part of a holistic trading approach. Taking online trading courses may come with an upfront cost, but what they offer in structure and support is priceless. In addition to the course materials, you’ll get access to a community of fellow traders, which will allow you to clarify ideas and discuss strategies with other traders at your level.
When it comes to pre-made trading blueprints, following – not blindly following or copying, but keeping an eye on – certain systems will help keep concepts fresh in your mind and promote understanding. That brings us to our final point…
3 Forge Your Own Trading Path
The beginning trader could throw a stone and hit a dozen sources that claim they’ve “cracked the code” for 100% successful trading. Not only is that statistically improbable, it’s made to appeal to lazy traders that aren’t willing to put in the work to succeed. No matter how “foolproof” a trading system seems, always filter it through your mentor and your own trading research to ensure it’s worth pursuing.
An old saying also holds true, here: don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. While it’s important to get comfortable with risk in trading, don’t bet the farm when you’re still learning the ropes. As you practice your trades and build confidence in your methods, success will follow naturally.
why DCA is the best strategy for trading?Today I’ll be talking about what is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) and how is it used in trading.
i will also shine a light on what importance it holds
What is dollar-cost averaging (DCA):
It is an investment strategy in which you invest a fixed small amount of money at regular intervals.
This allows you to take benefit of a market bearish without risking excess funds
Allowing you to keep up with greater liquidity and take benefit of market bullish.
let's show that with examle :
Let's imagine that there is a person called Cecilion and he invests in filusdt with a fixed amount of $ 20 every month.
let's imagine the price of that currency in March was $ 5 Then Cecilion will have 4 pieces of filusdt in March.
And in April, the value of filusdt fell to $4, and Cecilion bought it for the same amount ($20) to have 4 + 5 = 9 pieces of filusdt in april.
And in May, the value of filusdt fell again to $2, and Cecilion bought it for the same $20 , so that he owned 4+5+10 = 19 pieces of filusdt in May.
And in the following month, the price of filusdt raise to $10, and Cecilion bought it for the same $20, so that he owned 4+5+10+2=21 pieces of filusdt in June.
let's do some math to show the efficiency of this strategy:
- Cecilion invested $80 in 4 months and owned 21 pieces of filusdt to be The average purchase price is 80/21 = $3.8
- Let's imagine that Cecilion did not use this strategy and bought filusdt for $80 at once in March when its price was $5
Then a cecilion would have 80/5 = only 16 pieces of filusdt instead of 21 pieces.
hope this article was useful to you and appreciated ur support with likes , comment and follow for more.🎯
SIVB: A Cautionary Tale for Investors Following Stock BloggersAfter SVB has failed, which has raised concerns about the stability of US banks, as recent news reports indicate, I have questions about the reliability of stock bloggers/vloggers. Especially those telling you about “the best growth stock to buy right now”, “this stock is down by 50%, is it a buy now?”
First, I would like to remember these four key events marked in the chart:
1. On March 16, 2022, after the war in Ukraine had begun in February, the fears of rising inflation led the Fed to start hiking federal funds benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018. While FOMC stated that “The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.”
2. Additionally, on 13 June, 2022, S&P 500 slipped into the bear market territory by dropping more than 21% from its all-time record on 3 January, 2022.
3. On July 5, the spread between the 10-Year/2-Year US government bonds yield breached the negative area (until present), signaling to a potential recession.
4. Finally, on February 3, 2023, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January 2023, smashing the expectation of 185,000, and indicating the persistence of inflation as well as the possibility of rate hikes for longer periods.
Beyond that, the unrealized losses of the total available for sale securities – which include T-bills and mortgage-backed securities – has nearly doubled during 2022. SVB reported unrealized losses for AFS securities of $2.533 billion as of December 31, 2022, comparing to $1.303 billion at March 31, 2022, with total assets of $220.355 and $211.793 billion respectively. Some of these losses are attributed to the tumbling bond market.
Along that way, SIVB has tumbled so heavily. From my point of view, with my little experience, these losses of SIVB would have not made any buying opportunity, taking into account the previous events and the bank business model. However, many stock bloggers published so many articles advising to buy SIVB as, for example, “one the best growth stocks”, “safest banking stock”, “it is time to buy the dip” and so on, with a deep confidence in the management of the bank and its businesses.
Eventually, SIVB trading is halted and “pending the release of material news.” No one knows now what is coming after. The question is now for those well-known stock bloggers, how did you not see that coming and why are you giving such advice of buying growth stocks in the middle of the rising recession likelihood environment at the first place? One answer that they might give you is that this advice for investors who seek to hold the stocks for 3 to 5 years or more, year after a year.
Stock bloggers won’t stop publishing articles about “the best growth stock to buy right now” even if the great depression itself is back. So, back to the best advice of all time, do your own research and take nobody’s word for your investment decisions – especially those bloggers. If you are unable to do your research properly, avoid making investment decisions based on general ideas and do not buy or sell any stocks without sufficient information.
From Newbie to Experienced Trader | Full Path Explained
📖I was reflecting on how I became a trader, and suddenly I was reminded of a great book called «A hero with a thousand faces» which then led to the analogy between the journey of a trader and the hero's journey. And while just as any analogy this one is somwhat superficial, I really feel like there is a lot of truth to it. Just think of how many of us have trading histories that look something like this?
♣️A grand call to adventure. Who would not want to make a pile of money working from the comfort of your own computer screen?
♠️Finding a mentor. Good mentors matter! Few of us who have succeeded would have done so without some help.
♣️Crossing over into an “unreal” world. Markets are crazy. When we look deeply into markets, maybe we become a little crazy ourselves, and we certainly become disconnected from ordinary reality.
♠️Facing dire challenges. The emotional highs and lows of trading can be extreme. Is there a trader alive who hasn’t been awake at 4am wondering if they can ever do this, why they ever tried in the first place, how they could be so stupid to make the same mistakes over and over, and what they were going to do tomorrow? (This is probably not the time to mention that we only write stories about the heroes that complete the journey! A lot of dragons feasted very well, for a very long time.)
♣️Failure somehow, perhaps almost miraculously, is transformed to success.
♠️We figure out how to incorporate our trading activities into the everyday world, and discover that things probably weren’t quite as exotic or difficult as we had thought.
📌My point is that trading is not really about learning patterns. It is not about learning some math. It is not about skill development, and it is not even about risk management. All of these things are important, but the real work of trading is work on ourselves.
✅Remember: Before facing the dragon in a cave, one needs to awaken the dragon within.
❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
What do you want to learn in the next post?
Cash flow vibrationsIn the previous post we started to analyze the Cash flow statement. From it, we learned about the existence of three cash flows - operating cash flow, financial cash flow, and investment cash flow. Like three rivers, they fill the company's "lake of cash" (that is, they go with a "+" sign).
However, there are three other rivers that flow out of our lake, preventing it from expanding indefinitely. What are their names? They have absolutely identical names: operating cash flow, financial cash flow, and investment cash flow (and they go with a "-" sign). Why so? Because all of the company's outgoing payments can also be divided into these three rivers:
Operating payments include the purchase of raw materials, the payment of wages - everything related to the production and support of the product.
Financial payments include repayment of debt and interest on it, payment of dividends, or buyback of shares from shareholders.
Investment payments include the purchase of non-current assets (say, the purchase of additional buildings or shares in another company).
If the inflows from the three rivers on the left are greater than the outflows into the rivers on the right, then our lake will increase in volume, meaning that the company's cash balances will grow.
If the outflows into the three rivers on the right are greater than the inflows from the rivers on the left, the lake will become shallow and eventually dry up.
So, the cash flow statement shows how much our lake has increased or decreased over the period (quarter or year). This report can be presented as four entries:
Each value of A, B, and C is the difference between what came into our lake from the river and what flowed out of the lake by the river of the same name. That is, the value can be either positive or negative.
How can we interpret the meanings of the different flows? Let's break down each of them.
Operating cash flow . In a fundamentally strong company, it is the most stable and powerful river. The implication is that it should be the main source of "water" for our lake. Negative operating cash flow is an indicator of serious problems with the business because it means it is not generating money.
Investment cash flow . This is the most unpredictable river, as sometimes it can be very powerful and sometimes it can flow like a thin trickle. This is due to the fact that the purchase or sale of non-current assets (recall that these may be buildings, equipment, shares in other companies) does not occur as regularly as operational activities. A sudden negative investment flow tells us about some big purchase. Shareholders do not always view such events positively, as they may consider it an unwise expenditure or a threat to dividend payments. Therefore, they may start to sell their shares, which causes their price to drop. If a big purchase is perceived as an opportunity to reach the next level and capture more market share, then we may see exactly the opposite effect - an increase in share price.
Financial cash flow . A negative value of this cash flow can be seen as a very positive signal because it means that the company is either actively reducing its debt to creditors, or using the money to pay dividends, or spending the money to buy its own stock (*), or maybe all of these together.
(*) Here you may ask, why would a company buy its own stock? Management sometimes does this when they are confident in the success of their business and want to support the growth of their stock. The company becomes a major buyer of its own stock for some time so that it begins to grow. The process itself is called share buyback .
Positive financial cash flow, on the other hand, signals either an increase in debt or the sale of its own stock. As far as debt is concerned, you can't say that loans are bad for business. But there has to be a measure. But the sale by a company of its own shares is already an alarming signal to the current shareholders. It means that the company doesn't have enough money coming out of operating cash flow.
There is another type of cash flow that is not a separate "river," but is used as information about how much cash the company has left to meet its obligations to creditors and shareholders. This is Free cash flow .
It is simple to calculate: just subtract one of the components of the investment cash flow from the operating cash flow. This component is called Capital expenditures (often abbreviated as CAPEX). Capital expenditures include outgoing payments that go toward the purchase of non-current assets , such as land, buildings, equipment, etc.
(Free cash flow = Operating cash flow - Capital expenditures)
Free cash flow can be characterized as the "living" money that a company has created over a period, which can be used to repay loans, pay dividends, and buyback stocks from shareholders. If free cash flow is very weak or even negative, it is a reason for creditors, shareholders and investors to think about how the company is doing business.
This concludes my discussion of the cash flow statement topic. Next time, let's talk about the magic ratios that you can get from a company's financial statements. They greatly facilitate the process of fundamental analysis and are widely used by investors around the world. We will talk about the so-called Financial Ratios . See you soon!
Non-farm payrolls data is about to bearish the gold market!Today, the U.S. February quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls data will be released. Everyone knows that this data will play a key role in the gold market, because the performance of non-farm payrolls will directly affect the fundamental sentiment, which will determine the direction of the gold market in a short period of time.Does the non-farm payrolls data to be released today benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Let us make a bold prediction.
On Wednesday, the announced value of ADP employment in the United States in February was 242,000, the previous value was 119,000, and the forecast value was 200,000, while the actual announced value of 242,000 was much higher than the previous value and the forecast value. To a certain extent, it shows that the U.S. economy is strong and supports the dollar, thereby suppressing the gold market.
On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech suppressed the gold market. However, after Fed Chairman Powell mentioned on Wednesday that the rate of interest rate increases in March depends on the data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States released on Thursday was 210,000, higher than the previous value of 190,000 and the forecast value of 195,000, reflecting that the tight job market in the United States has still not eased, causing the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March to cool down, US bond yields fell sharply, and the dollar was dragged down, which benefited the gold market.
And today's non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be 205,000, compared with the previous value of 517,000. Judging from the ADP data guidance, the non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be higher than the expected value of 205,000, and the number of initial jobless claims in February remained at a comparable level. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week was as high as 210,000, overall, the number of new jobs in the month will not have much impact, so I think the non-farm payrolls released today will be higher than the expectation of 205,000, thereby suppressing the gold market.
It should also be noted that the position of SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF, decreased by 3.47 tons to 903.15 tons on Thursday, a new low since the end of January 2020, suggesting that institutional and professional investors are still inclined to bearish the gold market.
It can also be seen from the trend of gold. Although gold has recorded a strong rise in the short term, the strong pressure above still exists. Therefore, the early rise of gold is most likely to be to prepare for non-farm payrolls data and reserve room for the decline of the gold market.Then everyone thinks that the non-farm payrolls data to be released today will benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Everyone is welcome to come and discuss.
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How to trade trending markets?A trending market is defined as a market where prices are moving in a consistent direction over a period of time. There are many different ways to trade in trending markets, but some common methods include using moving averages, identifying areas of value, and recognizing chart patterns.
This article will discuss different aspects of trading in trending markets and provide tips on how to trade in these conditions. Whether you're looking to take profits or cut losses, this article will give you the information you need to make informed trading decisions.
Moving averages
Moving averages are one of the most commonly used technical indicators by traders. A moving average is simply a line that is plotted on a chart that shows the average price of a security over a certain period of time. The most common time periods used are 10, 20, 50, and 200 days.
There are different types of moving averages, but the two most popular are the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA). The SMA is calculated by taking the sum of all prices over the specified time period and dividing it by the number of prices in that period. The EMA, on the other hand, gives more weight to recent prices.
Traders use moving averages to help identify trends in the market. When price is above a moving average, it is generally considered to be in an uptrend. Conversely, when price is below a moving average, it is typically considered to be in a downtrend.
One way to use moving averages is to look for crossovers. A crossover occurs when two different moving averages cross each other on a chart. For example, if the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, it could be indicative of a new uptrend forming. Alternatively, if the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA, it might be indicative of a new downtrend beginning.
Crossovers can also be used to generate buy and sell signals. For instance, if price is trading above both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, then traders might look for buy signals when price pulls back towards either of those Moving Averages. Similarly, if price is trading below both Moving Averages, then traders might look for sell signals when price rallies back up towards either MA.
Moving averages can also be used to help traders identify areas of support and resistance. If price has been trending higher and keeps bouncing off of the 50-day MA, then that MA could be acting as support in an uptrending market. Likewise, if price has been trending lower and keeps bouncing off of the 200-day MA, then that MA could be acting as resistance in a downtrending market.
Area of value
An area of value is simply a point in the market where traders believe the price is either undervalued or overvalued. Traders use this concept to find potential entry and exit points in a market, as well as to manage risk when trading in a trending market.
When looking for an area of value, traders should consider both the price action and the underlying fundamentals of the market. For example, in a bullish trend, an area of value may be found at a support level where the price has bounced off multiple times. Alternatively, in a bearish trend, an area of value may be found at a resistance level where the price has failed to break through multiple times.
It is important to note that areas of value are not static; they can move up or down over time as market conditions change. As such, traders should regularly monitor both the price action and the fundamentals to ensure that their areas of value are still valid.
Once an area of value is found, traders can then look to enter into a position. When doing so, they should consider both their risk appetite and their desired profit-to-loss ratio. For example, a trader with a higher risk appetite may choose to enter at a point closer to the current market price, while a trader with a lower risk appetite may wait for the price to reach their area of value before entering into a position.
Once in a trade, it is important to monitor the market closely and have exit strategies in place should the market move against you. If the market does move against your position, you can either cut your losses or ride out the storm and hope that prices eventually rebound back in your favor.
Remember, however, that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results so always do your own research before making any trades.
Chart pattern
Chart patterns are a useful tool that traders can use to signal future price movements. There are three main types of chart patterns - reversal, continuation, and bilateral.
Reversal chart patterns occur when the price trend reverses direction. The most common reversal chart pattern is the head and shoulders pattern, which is characterized by a peak followed by two lower highs with a trough in between. This pattern signals that the current uptrend is coming to an end and that prices are likely to head lower in the future.
Continuation chart patterns occur when the price trend continues in the same direction. The most common continuation chart pattern is the flag pattern, which is characterized by a period of consolidation following a sharp price move. This pattern signals that the current trend is likely to continue and that prices are likely to move higher or lower in the future.
Bilateral chart patterns are characterized by a period of consolidation with support and resistance levels that converge towards each other. The most common bilateral chart pattern is the Pennant Pattern, which is formed when there is a sharp price move followed by a period of consolidation. This pattern signals that there is indecision in the market and that prices could move either higher or lower in the future.
Tips for identifying chart patterns: - Look for well-defined patterns with clear support and resistance levels - Pay attention to volume; there should be an increase in volume when the pattern forms - Use Fibonacci retracement levels to help you identify potential support and resistance levels.
Support and resistance
When trading in trending markets, it is important to be aware of support and resistance levels. Support and resistance levels are price points where the market has difficulty breaking through. In a bullish trend, the support level is the lowest point that the market has reached before bouncing back up. In a bearish trend, the resistance level is the highest point that the market has reached before falling back down.
Support and resistance levels can be used to signal future price movements. For example, if the market is approaching a support level, this may be seen as a buying opportunity as the market is likely to bounce back up from this level. Similarly, if the market is approaching a resistance level, this may be seen as a selling opportunity as the market is likely to fall back down from this level.
It is important to note that support and resistance levels are not static; they can move up or down over time as market conditions change. As such, traders should regularly monitor both the price action and the fundamentals to ensure that their levels are still valid.
When trading in trending markets, it is also important to have exit strategies in place should the market move against you. If the market does move against your position, you can either cut your losses or ride out the storm and hope that prices eventually rebound back in your favor.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
ROADMAP from COMFORT to GROWTHMost people take the easy road of being in a Comfort Zone.
For this reason, they keep getting the same results and remain in their ‘uncomfortable’ position in life.
Think about it…
Those that don’t understand new things, never adapt to something that could change their life for the better.
Those that keep earning the same old salary, never grow their retirement kitty to the level they wish.
Those that never throw things away, end up cluttering their life with the old.
Trading is no different.
It requires you to step out of your comfort zone in the beginning, to create something that can change your life.
Besides, great things never came from being in a comfort zone.
Let’s talk about the stages required to become a Growth Trader.
ZONE 1: COMFORT
This is where most people stay. They don’t take the necessary steps to open a trading account, fund it and grow their portfolios.
Instead, they stay in a feel safe and in control of their non-growing finances.
I still have people who’ve followed me for 15 years, and haven’t taken ONE single trade.
You need to jump out and take action.
ZONE 2: FEAR
When you have finally decided to take a leap of trading faith, a whole bunch of new fear with encompass your mind.
Will I lose money?
Will trading work for me?
Will I be able to follow a strategy each day?
Will I be on time to trade the markets?
What if the market environment is not conducive when I start?
Harness this fear, because it means one thing…
CHANGE IS COMING…
ZONE 3: LEARNING
Every loss, gain, rule is a lesson and adaption to entering a NEW zone.
Every challenge you face, is one less challenge you’ll need to deal with in the future.
Every difficulty you experience is a skill that you’ll acquire for trading.
The more you learn about the technical and fundamentals of the financial markets, the higher the level of experience and wisdom you’ll gain as a trader.
The learning phase is imperative to achieving success in any field…
ZONE 4: GROWTH
The accumulated lessons, experience, wisdom, actions and tribulations of repetitive actions – are the foundations to entering into a new comfort zone of GROWTH.
The difference is… You would have taken the necessary steps to succeed and accomplish your trading goals.
It will eventually reach the point, where the above zones will help you enter into a conditional and automatic process into your life where trading is nothing more than a continuous habit.
Once the fear, thrill and uncertainty are removed – only then you’ll realise that the initial comfort zone of inactivity was the uncomfortable phase that took you nowhere…
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone.
Read that last sentence again.
What is the golden rule of taking profits?
For trading stocks, futures, or forex, taking profits is also part of the trading process. For investors, taking profits and adhering to it during a trade is effective. When to take profits? Where is the best position for stop loss and take profit? Which strategy is more profitable? Taking profits and stop loss is one of the most important aspects of trading. If not handled properly, it could lead to losses. In previous articles, we have discussed the rule of stop loss. This chapter will discuss the rule of taking profits.
Investors are advised to follow and read this article. If it is helpful, please give it a like. Thank you.
Methods of taking profits
Taking profits means closing the position and securing profits when the trading goal is achieved to prevent market reversal. Taking profits can be divided into static and dynamic methods.
Static taking profits means setting a target for taking profits and closing the position when the target is reached. For example, if the profit expectation is 100 points and the price has risen 100 points, the position is closed to take profits. The target for taking profits is fixed and static.
Dynamic taking profits means the profit target is dynamic and is held until the price meets a dynamic standard before closing the position. For example, when holding a long position and floating profits, close the position when the market price breaks the bearish level. Traders cannot know in advance where the bearish level will appear and need to monitor the market dynamics.
Next, we will discuss five methods of taking profits.
Method 1: Fixed point profit taking
This is the simplest method of static taking profits. After entering the position, set a fixed profit space. This profit-taking method is more suitable for intraday and short-term trading. For example, after entering an intraday trading position, set a fixed profit-taking point of 50 points.
Intraday trading has a relatively obvious characteristic of fluctuating trends, and market prices tend to rebound and even fluctuate repeatedly. The profits from holding positions during market rebound may be given back, so setting a fixed profit-taking point can be more advantageous during trading.
In practical trading, the number of fixed stop-loss points should be set according to the volatility of different products. For products with high volatility, set a larger number of fixed stop-loss points, and for products with low volatility, set a smaller number of fixed stop-loss points.
Please note that this method should not be underestimated simply because it is simple. Whether this method is useful or not depends on the specific usage environment.
Method 2: Fixed profit and loss ratio take profit. This is a commonly used static take profit method in medium and short-term trading. First, let's talk about the profit and loss ratio. The ratio of the profit space of an order to the stop loss space is the profit and loss ratio. For example, if the profit is 100 points and the stop loss is 50 points, the profit and loss ratio is 2:1. Fixed profit and loss ratio means that the take profit is set according to a fixed ratio based on the stop loss space. For example, if the stop loss of an order is 100 points, setting the take profit at 100 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 1:1. Setting the take profit at 150 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 1.5:1. Setting the take profit at 200 points results in a profit and loss ratio of 2:1, and so on. The fixed profit and loss ratio method is easy to operate and highly executable. Moreover, when the market fluctuates and the stop loss space expands, the take profit space will also expand accordingly, making it very flexible.
Method 3: Take profit combined with technical indicators. This is also a static take profit method. After entering an order, the take profit is set based on technical indicators. For example, setting the take profit at the level of previous highs and lows, or at the support and resistance levels of the Bollinger Bands or important moving averages, is feasible. In addition, in practical trading, it is common to enter and exit at small time frames while looking at the support and resistance levels of larger time frames. For example, entering at the 5-minute level and setting the take profit at the support and resistance level of the 1-hour chart, or entering at the hourly level and setting the take profit at the Bollinger upper and lower bands of the daily chart, is essentially a logic of "going small and looking big".
Method 4: Take profit following the trend. This is a dynamic take profit mode and a trend-based take profit strategy. After entering an order, the position is held following the trend indicator, and the position is held until a reversal signal is issued, at which point the take profit is closed. Tracking with trend lines, channel lines, and turning points in the market are all common practices in daily trading.
Method 5: Combination of multiple methods, batch-wise profit taking.
The above four methods are the most mainstream and commonly used methods, but each method has its pros and cons.
For example, the fixed profit and loss ratio method cannot hold onto trend profits, and the trend tracking method cannot make profits in volatile markets. Therefore, some clever traders combine these methods and take profits in batches.
For example, after the order is entered, when the profit and loss ratio reaches 1:1, part of the position is closed, and the remaining position is exited using the trend tracking method to achieve greater profits.
In practical trading, traders can combine the above profit-taking methods in different ways, such as combining the support and resistance levels of the previous high with the fixed profit and loss ratio, or combining the support and resistance levels of the previous high with the trend tracking method.
After discussing these five profit-taking methods, it is only providing traders with an idea, and the specific results of practical trading must be reviewed and analyzed in combination with their own trading systems.
OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Never underestimate TradingView tools!Hi everybody!
You can find many "economic calendars" on the web, but this one has something extra, here you have the possibility to connect your Google Calendar with a simple click and for me that I use many devices, it is very important. I recently discovered this feature, and found it very useful, give it a try!
Cheers!
A.B.