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News TradingLet’s talk about news trading in Forex . While news trading is extremely lucrative it’s one of the most risky things a trader can do and experience. News and data cause extreme volatility in the market and as we always say “volatility can be your friend or your enemy” . Let’s take a deeper dive into news trading, which news and data affect the TVC:DXY precious metals such as OANDA:XAUUSD and other dollar related currency pairs. We will also cover having the right mindset for trading the news. 1. Understanding News Trading in Forex News trading is based on the idea that significant economic data releases and geopolitical events can cause sharp price fluctuations in forex markets. We as traders, aim to profit from these sudden price movements by positioning ourselves before or immediately after the news hits the market. However, due to market unpredictability, it requires a strategic plan, risk management, and quick decision making. 2. What to Do in News Trading 1. Know the Key Economic Events – Monitor economic calendars to stay updated on high-impact news releases. The most influential events include: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – A report on U.S. job growth that heavily influences the U.S. dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation, impacting interest rate decisions and currency valuation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings – Determines U.S. monetary policy and interest rates, affecting global markets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – A key indicator of economic growth, influencing currency strength. Central Bank Statements – Speeches by Fed Chair or ECB President can create large market moves. 2. Use an Economic Calendar – Websites like Forex Factory, Investing.com, or DailyFX provide real-time updates on economic events. 3. Understand Market Expectations vs. Reality – Markets often price in expectations before the news is released. If actual data deviates significantly from forecasts, a strong price movement may occur. 4. Trade with a Plan – Whether you are trading pre-news or post-news, have clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss levels, and a defined risk-to-reward ratio. 5. Monitor Market Sentiment – Pay attention to how traders are reacting. Sentiment can drive price action more than the actual data. 6. Focus on Major Currency Pairs – News trading is most effective with liquid pairs like FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:USDJPY , and OANDA:USDCAD because they have tighter spreads and high volatility. 3. What NOT to Do in News Trading 1. Don’t Trade Without a Stop-Loss – Extreme volatility can cause sudden reversals. A stop-loss helps prevent catastrophic losses. 2. Avoid Overleveraging – Leverage magnifies profits but also increases risk. Many traders blow accounts due to excessive leverage. 3. Don’t Chase the Market – Prices may spike and reverse within seconds. Jumping in late can lead to losses. 4. Avoid Trading Without Understanding News Impact – Not all economic releases cause the same level of volatility. Study past reactions before trading. 5. Don’t Rely Solely on News Trading – Long-term success requires a balanced strategy incorporating technical analysis and risk management. 4. The Unpredictability of News Trading News trading is highly unpredictable. Even when a report meets expectations, market reactions can be erratic due to: Market Sentiment Shifts – Traders might focus on different aspects of a report than expected. Pre-Pricing Effects – If a news event was anticipated, the market might have already moved, causing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction. Liquidity Issues – Spreads widen during major news events, increasing trading costs and slippage. Unexpected Statements or Revisions – Central banks or government agencies can make last-minute statements that shake the market. 5. How News Affects Forex, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar 1. U.S. Dollar (USD) – The USD reacts strongly to NFP, CPI, FOMC statements, and GDP reports. Strong economic data strengthens the dollar, while weak data weakens it. 2. Gold (XAU/USD) – Gold is an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. It often moves inversely to the USD and rises during economic uncertainty. 3. Stock Market & Risk Sentiment – Positive economic news can boost stocks, while negative reports may trigger risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. 6. The Right Mindset for News Trading 1. Accept That Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword – Big moves can mean big profits, but also big losses. 2. Control Emotions – Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your strategy. 3. Risk Management is Key – Never risk more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade. 4. Adaptability – Be prepared to change your approach if market conditions shift unexpectedly. 5. Patience and Experience Matter – The best traders wait for the right setups rather than forcing trades. Thank you for your support! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FxPocket
4
DXY: Dollar Surges Amid Inflation Pressures! Hi Traders Since the CPI came in higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3%), this signals continued inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider raising them if inflation continues to rise. The dollar could gain strength 💪 due to expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish. Markets may experience significant volatility ⚠️, especially in dollar pairs and U.S. indices.
TVC:DXYEducation
by hamidTrader21
How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?How Can You Trade Energy Commodities? Energy trading connects global markets to the vital resources that power economies—oil and natural gas. These commodities aren’t just essential for industries and homes; they’re also dynamic assets for traders, influenced by geopolitics, supply, and demand. Whether you’re exploring benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI or understanding natural gas markets, this article unpacks the essentials of energy commodities and how to trade them. What Is Energy Trading? Energy trading involves buying and selling energy resources that power industries and households worldwide. These commodities are essential for modern life and are traded in global markets both as physical products and financial instruments. Energy commodities include resources like oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, ethanol, uranium, and more. In this article, we’ll focus on the two that traders interact with the most: oil and natural gas. Oil is often divided into benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI, which set global and regional pricing standards. These benchmarks represent crude oil that varies in quality and origin, impacting its trade and refining applications. Natural gas, on the other hand, plays a critical role in electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes. It’s traded in various forms, including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), offering flexibility in transportation and supply. What makes energy commodities unique is their global demand and sensitivity to external factors. Weather patterns, geopolitical developments, and economic activity all heavily influence their prices. For traders, this creates a dynamic market with potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements. Additionally, energy commodities can act as economic indicators. A surge in oil prices, for example, might reflect growing demand from expanding industries, while a drop could indicate reduced consumption. Understanding these resources isn’t just about their practical use—it’s about grasping their role in shaping global markets and financial systems. Oil: Brent Crude vs WTI Brent Crude and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) are the world’s two leading oil benchmarks, shaping prices for a resource critical to industries and economies. Despite both being types of crude oil, they differ significantly in origin, quality, and market influence. Brent Crude Brent Crude is a globally recognised benchmark for oil pricing, primarily sourced from fields in the North Sea. Its importance lies in its role as a pricing reference for about two-thirds of the world’s oil supply. What makes Brent unique is its lighter and sweeter quality, meaning it has lower sulphur content and is easier to refine into fuels like petrol and diesel. This benchmark is particularly significant in European, African, and Asian markets, where it serves as a key indicator of global oil prices. Its value is heavily influenced by international demand, geopolitical events, and production levels in major exporting countries. For traders, Brent offers a window into global supply and demand trends, making it a critical component of energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is the benchmark for oil produced in the United States. Extracted primarily from Texas and surrounding regions, WTI is even lighter and sweeter than Brent, making it suitable for refining into high-value products like petrol. WTI’s pricing is heavily tied to North American markets, with its hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key point for storage and distribution. Localised factors, like US production rates and storage capacity, often create price differentials between WTI and Brent, with Brent typically trading at a premium. For example, logistical bottlenecks in the US can drive WTI prices lower. The main distinction between the two lies in their geographical focus: while Brent captures the international market’s pulse, WTI provides insights into North American energy dynamics. Together, they form the foundation of global oil pricing. Natural Gas: A Growing Energy Commodity Natural gas is a cornerstone of the global energy market, valued for its versatility and role in powering economies. It’s used extensively for electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes, with demand continuing to rise as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal and oil. This energy commodity comes in two primary forms for trade: pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Pipeline gas is delivered directly via extensive networks, making it dominant in regions like North America and Europe. LNG, on the other hand, is supercooled to a liquid state for transportation across oceans, opening up markets that lack pipeline infrastructure. LNG trade has grown rapidly in recent years, with key suppliers like Qatar, Australia, and the US meeting surging demand in Asia. Pricing for natural gas varies regionally, with hubs like Henry Hub in the US and the National Balancing Point (NBP) in the UK serving as benchmarks. These hubs reflect regional dynamics, such as weather conditions, storage levels, and local supply disruptions. Natural gas prices are also closely tied to broader geopolitical and economic factors. For example, harsh winters often drive up heating demand, while conflicts or sanctions affecting major producers can create supply constraints. This volatility makes natural gas an active and highly watched market for traders, offering potential opportunities tied to shifting global conditions. Price Factors of Energy Commodities Energy commodity prices are influenced by a mix of global events, market fundamentals, and local factors. Here’s a breakdown of key elements driving oil and gas trading prices: - Supply and Production Levels: Output from major producers like OPEC nations, the US, and Russia has a direct impact on prices. Supply cuts or surges can quickly move markets. - Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, sanctions, or political instability in oil and gas-rich regions often disrupt supply chains, creating volatility. - Weather and Seasonal Demand: Cold winters boost natural gas demand for heating, while summer driving seasons often increase oil consumption. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can also damage infrastructure and reduce supply. - Economic Growth: Expanding economies typically consume more energy, driving demand and prices higher. Conversely, a slowdown or recession can weaken demand. - Storage Levels: Inventories act as a cushion against supply disruptions. Low storage levels often signal tighter markets, pushing prices up. - Transportation Costs: The cost of shipping oil or LNG across regions impacts pricing, particularly for seaborne commodities like Brent Crude and LNG. - Exchange Rates: Energy commodities are usually priced in dollars, meaning currency fluctuations can affect affordability in non-dollar markets. - Market Sentiment: Traders’ expectations, shaped by reports like US inventory data or OPEC forecasts, can influence short-term price movements. How to Trade Energy Commodities Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas involves navigating dynamic markets with the right tools, strategies, and risk awareness. Here’s a breakdown of how traders typically approach energy commodity trading: Instruments for Energy Trading Energy commodities can be traded through various instruments, typically through an oil and gas trading platform. For instance, FXOpen provides access to oil and gas CFDs alongside 700+ other markets, including currency pairs, stocks, ETFs, and more. - CFDs (Contracts for Difference): Popular among retail traders because they allow access to global energy markets without owning the physical assets. They offer leverage and provide flexibility to take advantage of both rising and falling prices. Additionally, CFDs have lower entry costs, no expiration dates, and eliminate concerns like storage or delivery logistics. Please remember that leverage trading increases risks. - Futures: These are contracts to buy or sell commodities at a future date. While they provide leverage and flexibility, trading energy derivatives like futures is often unnecessarily complex for the average retail trader. - ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Energy ETFs diversify exposure to energy commodities or related sectors. - Energy Stocks: Shares in oil and gas companies provide indirect exposure to commodity price changes. Analysis: Fundamental and Technical Energy traders rely on two primary types of analysis: - Fundamental Analysis: Examines supply and demand factors like OPEC decisions, weather patterns, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators such as GDP growth or industrial output. - Technical Analysis: Focuses on price charts, identifying patterns, trends, and important levels to anticipate potential market movements. Combining these approaches can offer a broader perspective, helping traders refine their strategies. Taking a Position and Managing Risk Once traders identify potential opportunities, they decide on position size and duration based on their analysis. Risk management is critical to help traders potentially mitigate losses in these volatile markets. Strategies often include: - Diversifying positions to reduce exposure to a single commodity. - Setting limits on position sizes to align with overall portfolio risk. - Monitoring leverage carefully, as it can amplify both potential returns and losses. Risk Factors in Energy Commodities Trading Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas offer potential opportunities, but it also comes with significant risks due to the market's volatility and global nature. - Price Volatility: Energy markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, economic shifts, and supply disruptions. This can lead to rapid price swings, particularly if the event is unexpected. - Leverage Risks: Many instruments, like CFDs and futures, allow traders to use leverage, amplifying both potential returns and losses. Mismanaging leverage can lead to significant setbacks. - Geopolitical Uncertainty: Events like conflicts in oil-producing regions or trade sanctions can disrupt supply chains and sharply impact prices. - Market Sentiment: Energy prices can react strongly to reports like inventory data, OPEC announcements, or unexpected news, creating rapid shifts in sentiment and price direction. - Overexposure: Focusing too heavily on a single energy commodity can magnify losses if the market moves against the position. - Economic Factors: Slowing industrial activity or recession fears can reduce demand for energy, putting downward pressure on prices. The Bottom Line Energy commodities trading offers potential opportunities, driven by global demand and supply. Whether focusing on oil, natural gas, or other energy assets, understanding the fundamentals and risks is key to navigating this complex market. Ready to explore oil and gas commodity trading via CFDs? Open an FXOpen account to access advanced tools, competitive spreads, low commissions, and four trading platforms designed to support your journey. FAQ What Are Energy Commodities? Energy commodities are natural resources used to power industries, homes, and transportation. Key examples include crude oil, natural gas, and coal. These commodities are traded globally as physical assets or through financial instruments like futures and CFDs. Can I Make Money Trading Commodities? Trading commodities offers potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements, but it also involves significant risks. The effectiveness of your trades depends on understanding of market dynamics, analyses of supply and demand, and risk management. While some traders achieve returns, losses are also common, especially in volatile markets like energy. How Do I Start Investing in Energy? Investing in energy typically begins with choosing an instrument like ETFs or stocks, depending on your goals and risk tolerance. Researching market fundamentals, monitoring geopolitical and economic factors, and practising sound risk management are essential steps for new investors. What Is an Energy Trading Platform? An energy trading platform, or power trading platform, is software that enables traders to buy and sell energy commodities. These energy trading solutions provide access to pricing data, charting tools, and news feeds, helping traders analyse markets and execute trades efficiently. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDEducation
by FXOpen
2
Understanding Market Activity in CryptoMarket activity measures the level of trading intensity in a market. It includes transaction volume, price fluctuations, supply and demand, and how different participants interact. In crypto, this is reflected in metrics like trading volume, liquidity, and order book depth. Example: Bitcoin ( BTC ) trading volume spikes when major news (e.g., ETF approvals) or macroeconomic events occur. This increased activity shows how market sentiment drives price movement. Who Are the Market Participants? Market participants are anyone buying or selling an asset. In crypto, this includes: - Retail traders (individuals buying BTC, ETH, etc.) - Institutional investors (hedge funds, large companies) - Market makers (liquidity providers ensuring smooth order flow) - Miners & validators (securing the network and earning rewards) The more participants in a market, the more liquid it becomes, making price movements smoother and reducing volatility. Example: Bigger CEX have a deeper liquidity than a small DEX, meaning orders execute faster with less slippage. Price + Time = Value (Crypto Perspective) One fundamental rule in markets is: ➡️ Price + Time = Value This means that an asset’s value is determined not just by its price but also by how long people are willing to hold or trade it. Example: A long-term BTC holder who bought at $1,000 and held for 5 years sees a much different "value" than a day trader who flips BTC in minutes. Additionally, crypto markets always have price levels that attract buyers and sellers (support and resistance levels). Example: Bitcoin's $20,000 level in past cycles acted as both strong support and resistance, attracting buyers when the price dipped and sellers when it surged. Market Analysis & Price Patterns (Normal Distribution in Crypto) To analyze market activity, traders break price movements into time segments. One useful tool is the normal distribution curve, which shows where most trades happen. Example: In on-chain analysis, if most Bitcoin transactions happen between $40,000–$45,000, this becomes the value area where market participants agree on price. Crypto analogy: Think of a whale buying BTC in chunks over days, forming a distribution pattern. If they stop buying, price trends shift. Supply & Demand in Crypto (Using a Bakery Analogy) Markets function based on supply and demand. Imagine a bakery: In the morning, fresh bread (high demand, low supply) = higher prices By evening, leftover bread (low demand, excess supply) = discounted prices The same happens in crypto: New altcoin launch: Limited supply, high hype = price pumps Token unlocks: More supply enters the market = price dumps Example: When a project like Aptos (APT) unlocks millions of tokens, supply increases, and the price often drops due to selling pressure. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Market Trends Markets move in different timeframes—hourly, daily, weekly, and even yearly trends. Short-term example: Ethereum’s price swings daily based on trader speculation. Long-term example: Bitcoin halving cycles create multi-year trends that drive overall growth. Example: In 2020, BTC was under $10K, but by 2021, it reached $69K due to long-term macro factors. Crypto Market Makers (Real-World Examples) Bitcoin Miners: Similar to a car company adjusting production, Bitcoin miners decide whether to sell mined BTC or hold it for higher prices. 2️⃣Whales & Institutions: Like property developers adjusting prices, whales accumulate crypto at low prices and distribute at highs. 3️⃣Liquidity Pools in DeFi: Like restaurants pricing meals based on demand, liquidity providers adjust fees and slippage in Uniswap pools. Example: Alameda Research (before FTX collapsed) was a key market maker, providing liquidity across major crypto exchanges. Long-Term Disruptions (Crypto Example: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin) Long-term players reshape entire markets over time. Example: Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) was the first mover, dominating the crypto market for years. Ethereum (ETH) introduced smart contracts, shifting activity from BTC to DeFi, NFTs, and Web3. Now, new chains like Solana challenge ETH, forcing changes in network fees and scalability. This mirrors how Japanese car companies disrupted the U.S. market, forcing competitors to evolve. How to Spot Fair Prices in Crypto? Markets always seek equilibrium—a price where buyers and sellers agree. Example: If a new altcoin doubles in price, but trading volume drops, it signals overvaluation. If on-chain data shows steady BTC accumulation, it suggests a fair price floor forming. ➡️ Traders watch repeated transactions to gauge market sentiment. Consumer Awareness in Crypto As investors, we naturally understand how price and time impact value. However, we also need to watch long-term market participants like: Whales (Smart Money): Who is accumulating? On-Chain Data: Are large wallets buying or selling? Institutional Trends: Are hedge funds moving into crypto? 📌 Example: When Tesla bought #bitcoin in 2021, it signaled institutional confidence, but when they sold, market sentiment shifted. Final Thoughts Crypto markets follow the same supply and demand principles as traditional markets but with 24/7 trading, higher volatility, and unique tokenomics. Understanding market activity helps traders anticipate moves and make better investment decisions. 🚀 Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
Price Action: Traps of Market MakersHave you ever felt confident about a market trend, only to watch the price suddenly reverse direction? Or found yourself following what seemed like a clear price movement, only to realize it was a false signal? Don't blame yourself or your trading strategy. What you're experiencing is likely the work of market makers who strategically create traps to trigger stop losses and pending orders. In this post, we'll dive into these market traps – learning how to identify them, understanding their different types, and most importantly, discovering how to turn them into profitable opportunities. What are market maker traps? At their core, market traps are deceptive price movements designed to create an illusion of a genuine trend, convincing traders to take positions before the market reverses course. 📍 1. The False Double Pattern Trap At its core, most market traps manifest as false breakouts of key levels. One of the most common examples is the deceptive Double Top/Double Bottom pattern. If you have traded these patterns, you have probably noticed something interesting: the second top is often slightly higher than the first, while the second bottom tends to be slightly lower than the previous one. This contradicts the traditional pattern theory, which suggests the second top should be lower, indicating market weakness. What's really happening here? Large market players deliberately push prices beyond these levels to trigger the stop losses and pending orders of smaller traders. Once they've captured this liquidity, the market reverses, revealing the trap. 📍 2. The Trend Continuation Trap This trap is perhaps the most devastating for traders. Traditional market wisdom tells us that a bearish trend consists of progressively lower highs and lower lows. When a previous high gets broken, conventional technical analysis suggests the bearish trend has possibly ended. However, reality often plays out differently. The price might briefly break above a local maximum, triggering stop orders and creating the illusion of a trend reversal. Instead of reversing, though, the price continues its original downward trajectory. This phenomenon is particularly visible on shorter timeframes like M30 or H1, where the fake breakout typically spans several candles. When you spot a breakout against an established trend, approach with caution – it's more likely to be a false signal than a genuine reversal. In contrast, during sideways market conditions, focus on trading bounces from the channel's boundaries (upper and lower borders). This more conservative approach can help protect you from these common traps. 📍 3. The News-Driven Trap One of the most common traps occurs during news events. You've probably experienced it: price suddenly surges in one direction, breaks through a significant level, only to reverse sharply. This classic "fake-out" catches many traders on the wrong side of the market. A key strategy for identifying these traps is to analyze multiple timeframes. Generally, you'll want to examine both higher and lower timeframes than your primary trading window. Remember: the higher the timeframe, the fewer traps you'll typically encounter, making your analysis more reliable. 📍 4. Session Opening Traps Trading session transitions, particularly around the London open, often create another type of trap. You might notice one price direction before London opens, followed by a different movement at the session's start, which then reverses later. These movements typically trigger stop losses at key levels before reversing. For detailed analysis of session traps, dropping down to smaller timeframes (15M) can reveal the true price action. For instance, you might spot a clear price rise followed by a decisive bounce off a significant level like 189.500. When you see a breakout of any significant level – whether it's a round number or a local high/low during a trend correction – approach it with skepticism. Until price firmly establishes itself in the new zone with clear confirmation, consider the possibility that you're witnessing a trap designed to collect stop losses. Remember this fundamental truth: price is more likely to bounce from a level than break through it. 📍 Practical Tips on Trading Traps ◾️ Multi-Timeframe Analysis. The key to successfully trading traps begins with analyzing multiple timeframes. When you spot a breakout of an obvious level, switch to the timeframe where the movement appears most convincing. This helps you better understand the trap's structure and potential reversal points. ◾️ Entry and Risk Management. Timing your entry is crucial. Look for the first signals of price reversal, but remember - proper position sizing is essential. Keep your stop losses tight, as the market may still produce additional spikes that could prematurely end your trade. While this approach might take practice to master, the reward potential is significant - you can set take-profit targets up to 10 times larger than your stop loss. ◾️ Position Management. Once in the trade, actively manage your position. Move your stop loss to breakeven at the first appropriate opportunity to protect your capital. 📍 Conclusion Trading traps effectively requires patience and practice. While this strategy can be challenging to master, the ability to recognize and capitalize on these traps gives you a significant edge in the market. Many traders fall victim to these traps; learning to spot them transforms you from potential prey into a skilled hunter. Take time to practice identifying these patterns before committing real capital, and start with smaller position sizes as you develop your skills. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
13
Bitcoin Seasonality - Best Month (October) and Best Day (Monday)It's very important for every Bitcoin trader to know its seasonality because this will significantly increase the probability of successful trades. I have been trading Bitcoin for almost 10 years, and I successfully use seasonality patterns to predict Bitcoin price movements. For example, you don't want to go long on Bitcoin during August or September; that's probably a very bad idea. The biggest market crashes usually happen in September. But you definitely want to go long in October or April, as these months are the most promising. Knowledge of these patterns will give you an advantage over standard retail traders. Every trade matters. Average return by Month (%) January: +5.1% February: +12.1% March: +4.8% April: ˇ+18.7% May: +14.2% June: +4.4% July: +6.1% August: -3.1% September: -8.4% October: +22.2% November: +17.9% December: +7.3% Average return by Weekday (%) Monday: +0.63% Tuesday: +0.18% Wednesday: +0.54% Thursday: +0.40% Friday: +0.37% Saturday: +0.45% Sunday: +0.10% Currently I am bullish on Bitcoin as the price is in an uptrend and the bear market is not confirmed; I expect Bitcoin to hit 115k probably at the end of February. What I also expect is an alt season - alt season is starting right now! So it's time to buy some altcoins. Ethereum should outperform BTC in the next weeks as well. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Education
by Xanrox
43
Gold Longterm Sentiment IndexUpdate 2 indicators: 1: HUI,XAU and GOLD Ratio Analysis 2: Cyber.Gold Sentiment Longterm Index TT I wonder when TradingView will ban publish my indicator. The platform with the stupid rules. The relationship between HUI,XAU,GDX HUI: Gold mining company performance stock XAU: Gold mining company stock bakjc,metal GDX: Tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) including large-cap companies Source: byvn.net seekingalpha.com
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Limitedterminator
How Does a Carry Trade Work? How Does a Carry Trade Work? A carry trade is a popular forex trading strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differentials between two currencies, aiming to earn returns from the interest gap. This article explores what a carry trade is, its formula, and how the strategy works, helping traders understand its potential advantages and risks. Carry Trade: Definition A carry trade is a popular forex strategy where traders take advantage of the difference in interest rates between two currencies. It involves borrowing money in a currency with a low borrowing cost—this is known as the "funding currency"—and then converting that borrowed amount into another offering higher interest, called the "investment currency." This is done to earn the interest rate differential between the two. The Mechanics of a Forex Carry Trade A carry position involves a few key components that work together to create potential opportunities in the forex market. 1. The Funding Currency The first component is the currency that the trader borrows, the funding currency. Traders typically choose one with low interest costs because the amount to repay will be minimal. Common funding currencies include the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF), as these often have low or even negative borrowing costs. 2. The Investment Currency The second component is the investment currency, which is the one into which the borrowed funds are converted. This is chosen because it offers a higher interest yield, providing an opportunity to earn returns from the interest rate differential. Popular investment currencies often include the Australian dollar (AUD) or the New Zealand dollar (NZD), as they tend to have higher borrowing costs. However, in recent years, emerging market currencies, like the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL), and South African rand (ZAR), have also been favoured due to their high interest yields. 3. Interest Rate Differential The core concept here is to capitalise on the interest rate differential between the funding and investment currency. If someone borrows in a currency with a 0.5% premium and invests in another offering a 4% yield, the differential (known as the "carry") is 3.5%. This differential represents the potential return, assuming there are no significant changes in the exchange rate. 4. Swaps and Rollovers Swaps and rollovers are key factors. When you hold a position overnight (roll it over), the difference in interest rates between the two currencies is either credited or debited to your account. This is because when you trade a forex pair, you're effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. The swap rate compensates for the interest rate difference. Positive Swap Rate: If the interest rate of the currency you are buying is higher than that you are selling, you might receive a positive swap rate, meaning you earn interest. Negative Swap Rate: Conversely, if the interest rate of the currency you're selling is higher than the one you're buying, you'll pay interest, leading to a negative swap rate. 5. Leverage Many traders use leverage to amplify their positions. Leverage allows them to borrow additional funds to expand the size of their investment. While this can potentially increase returns, it also magnifies risks. If the position moves against the trader, losses can quickly accumulate due to the leverage. 6. Market Fluctuations The price of the pair is a crucial factor in the yield of the differential. While the differential offers the potential for returns, any adverse price movement can negate these gains. For instance, if the investment currency depreciates relative to the funding currency, the trader could face losses when converting back to the funding currency. Conversely, if the investment currency appreciates relative to the funding currency, then they can potentially make an additional gain on top of their interest yield. 7. Transaction Fees and Spreads Traders must consider transaction fees and spreads, which are the differences between the buying and selling prices of a forex pair. These costs can reduce the overall gains of the operation. Wider spreads, particularly in less liquid forex pairs, can increase the cost of entering and exiting positions. In a carry position, these components interact continuously. A trader borrows in a low-interest-rate currency, converts the funds to a higher-yielding one, and aims to earn from the differential while carefully monitoring market movements, transaction costs, and swap rates. The overall approach is based on balancing the interest earned, fees, and potential pair’s price movements. Carry Trade: Formula and Example To calculate the potential return of a carry trade, traders use a basic formula: - Potential Return = (Investment Amount * Interest Rate Differential) * Leverage Let’s examine a carry trade example. Imagine someone borrows 10,000,000 Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate of 0.5% and uses these funds to invest in Australian dollars (AUD), which has a higher borrowing cost of 4.5%. The differential is 4% (4.5% - 0.5%). If the current exchange rate is 1 AUD = 80 JPY, converting 10,000,000 JPY results in 125,000 AUD (10,000,000 JPY / 80). They then use the 125,000 AUD to earn 4.5% interest annually: - 125,000 * 4.5% = 5,625 AUD The cost of borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.5% interest is: - 10,000,000 * 0.5% = 50,000 JPY Converted back to AUD at the original exchange price (1 AUD = 80 JPY), the interest cost is: - 50,000 JPY / 80= 625 AUD The net return is the interest earned minus the borrowing cost (for simplicity, we’ll exclude other transaction fees): - 5,625 AUD − 625 AUD = 5,000 AUD If the price changes, it can significantly impact the position’s outcome. For example, if the AUD appreciates against the JPY, moving from 80 to 85 JPY per AUD, the 125,000 AUD would now be worth 10,625,000 JPY (125,000 * 85). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader receives additional returns. Conversely, if the AUD depreciates to 75 JPY per AUD, the value of 125,000 AUD drops to 9,375,000 JPY (125,000 * 75). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader faces a loss. Types of Carry Trades: Positive and Negative Trades with yield differential can be classified into two types: positive and negative, each defined by the differential between the funding and investment currencies. Positive Carry Trade A positive carry trade occurs when the borrowing rate on the investment currency is higher than that of the funding one. For example, if a trader borrows in Japanese yen (JPY) at 0.5% and invests in Australian dollars (AUD) at 4.5%, the differential is 4%. This differential means they earn more interest on the invested currency than they pay on the borrowed one, potentially resulting in a net gain, especially if market movements are favourable. Negative Carry Trade A negative carry trade happens when the yield on the funding currency is higher than that on the investment. In this case, the trader would lose money on the rate differential. For example, borrowing in US dollars at 2% to invest in euros at 1% would result in a negative carry of -1%. Traders might still pursue negative yield differential trades to hedge other positions or take advantage of expected market movements, but the strategy involves more risk. How Can You Analyse Carry Trade Opportunities? To analyse opportunities, traders focus on several key factors to determine whether a carry position could be effective. 1. Differentials The primary factor here is the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Traders look for forex pairs where the investment currency offers a significantly higher interest return than the funding currency. This differential provides the potential returns from holding the position over time. 2. Economic Indicators Traders monitor economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures, as these can influence central banks' decisions on interest rates. A strong economy may lead to higher borrowing costs, making a pair more attractive for a yield differential position. Conversely, weak economic data could result in rate cuts, reducing the appeal of a currency. 3. Central Bank Policies Understanding central bank policies is crucial. Traders analyse statements from central banks, like the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, to gauge future rate changes. If a central bank hints at raising borrowing costs, it could present an opportunity for a positive carry transaction. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite This type of transaction often performs well in low-volatility environments. Traders assess market sentiment and risk appetite by analysing geopolitical events, market trends, and investor behaviour. Risks of a Carry Trade While carry trading can offer potential returns from borrowing cost differentials, they also come with significant risks that traders must consider. - Exchange Risk: If the investment currency depreciates against the funding one, it can wipe out the returns from the differential and result in losses. - Interest Rate Risk: Changes in the cost of borrowing by central banks can alter the differential, reducing potential returns or even creating a negative carry situation. - Leverage Risk: Many traders use leverage to amplify returns, but this also magnifies potential losses. A small adverse movement in pairs can push the trader out of the market. - Liquidity Risk: During periods of low market liquidity, exiting a position may become difficult or more costly, increasing the risk of loss. A Key Risk: Carry Trade Unwinding Unwinding happens when traders begin to exit their positions en masse, often due to changes in market conditions, such as increased volatility or a shift in risk sentiment. This essentially means exiting the investment and repurchasing the original currency. Unwinding can trigger rapid and significant price movements, particularly if many traders are involved, and lead to a much lower return if the exit is timed incorrectly. For example, if global markets face uncertainty or economic data points to a weakening economy, investors may seek so-called safer assets, leading to a swift exit from carry positions and a steep decline in the investment currency. The Bottom Line This type of strategy offers a way to take advantage of interest rate differentials between currencies, but it comes with its own set of risks. Understanding the mechanics and analysing opportunities is critical. Ready to explore yield differential trades in the forex market? Open an FXOpen account today to access advanced tools, low-cost trading, and more than 600 markets. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Carry Trade? A carry trade in forex meaning refers to a strategy where traders borrow in a low-interest currency (the "funding currency") and invest in a higher-interest one (the "investment currency") to earn returns from the differential. What Is the Carry Trade Strategy? The carry trade strategy consists of borrowing funds in a currency with a low interest rate and using those funds to invest in a currency that offers a higher interest rate. Traders then invest the borrowed funds in the higher-yielding one to earn returns from the borrowing cost differential. The strategy typically relies on both relatively stable forex prices and the interest differential remaining favourable. How Does the Japanese Carry Trade Work? The Japanese currency carry trade typically involves borrowing the Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate and converting it into another with a higher yield, like the Australian dollar (AUD). The aim is to take advantage of the gap in borrowing costs. What Is an Example of a Yen Carry Trade? An example of a yen carry position is borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.10% interest and converting it to AUD, which earns 4.35%. The trader takes advantage of the 4.25% differential, assuming favourable market conditions. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP , It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy... This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024, 2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+. Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them: What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts). Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend: As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself. The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades. I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited . The way the entries are spread is this: Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated. The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame. Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example: Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one, The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading. So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point. For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy: The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes. (viceversa for buys). We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters: As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap. Now comes in your exit strategy... There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this: 1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case) 2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period 3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last). But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with??? - In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk: - In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run: as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy. Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case. If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
SEducation
by BancoMatt
1
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders. One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on? 📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out. Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout. 💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action. To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack. If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell. 👉👈 Who’s Right? Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality. The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news. 💡 Why It Matters Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs. Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller. 💚 Final Thoughts Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you. So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
33
Bearish Phase Continues: XRP's 25% Decline Possible Target $1.80Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 2 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 2 concise lines at the end. I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of market and Ripple. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Ripple: It is conceivable that we may witness upward candlestick formations as part of the completion of the ongoing bearish phase. I have depicted this potential scenario clearly on the chart, which should provide clarity on the matter. However, there remains a distinct possibility that Ripple may experience further depreciation from this point. In fact, I foresee an additional decline of at least 25% for this asset, with a target price set at $1.80. The bearish cycle we are currently observing is far from over. One of the significant indicators of its continuation is the failure of spot prices to rise in proportion to their potential, despite initial expectations. Furthermore, these spot prices have consistently fallen in response to Bitcoin's periodic downturns and have not been able to recover their losses following Bitcoin's price recoveries. In simpler terms, it appears that the much-discussed altcoin season in the market has been short-lived. This was particularly evident for certain altcoins, including highly regarded ones such as Ethereum, which failed to achieve the levels of growth many had anticipated. This brings me to a critical observation: why, when Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high, was Ethereum unable to surpass the $5000 threshold? The question becomes even more pressing when we consider that after a market correction, during which Bitcoin regained its position, many other altcoins continued to slide, indicating a lack of positive momentum in the broader market. These factors point to a larger trend of ongoing market weakness, suggesting that additional declines may be inevitable. The inability of Ethereum and other altcoins to capitalize on Bitcoin's strength, especially during a bull run, signals a more complex and challenging market environment. This ongoing pattern highlights the fragility of altcoins, particularly in relation to Bitcoin's dominant influence. Therefore, it seems prudent to expect further downward pressure across the board as we navigate the remaining phases of this cycle." This version aims to be more in-depth, offering both an analysis of the current situation and an explanation of potential future market movements, all while maintaining a professional and polished tone. However , This analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 We might see some upward candles as part of the current bearish phase, but Ripple could still drop another 25%, with a target price of $1.80. The ongoing market weakness is evident, as spot prices aren’t growing as expected, and altcoins like Ethereum couldn’t capitalize on Bitcoin’s new all-time high. This suggests more declines ahead for the broader market. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
9
10 tricks for developing discipline or here was WarrenIf you asked me, what is the most valuable trait an investor should have, I would call it the ability to follow your own rules. In other words, it is discipline. A novice investor can learn quickly, know all the features of the chosen strategy from A to Z, but it is unlikely that he will succeed without this trait. So, Warren Buffett called persistence your engine, and discipline the guarantee of a successful future. Imagine that you have sailed to an unusually beautiful island with the goal of finding a treasure chest. To achieve this, you have a map with a description of all the paths and turns that you need to take to reach your goal. However, after the first 100 meters of the path you understand that this island has a huge number of amazing plants, ripe fruits, and curious animals. All this is very interesting and attractive for you: firstly, you want to take a photo of a beautiful flower, secondly, try a tropical fruit, thirdly, play with a funny monkey. “Why not? This is a great chance!” you think. After a while, having enjoyed the life of the island, you realize that it is already evening, and it is easier to spend the night somewhere under a palm tree and continue the search for treasure tomorrow, during daylight hours. “That’s a smart idea!” you note and begin to prepare a place to sleep. In the morning, you wake up in a good mood, you are greeted by familiar flowers, fruits and a cheerful parrot. Since you already know all this, you decide to continue following the map to find the treasure today and sail on. The path is easy for you: the entire route is marked in advance, you just follow these instructions. So, here you are. At the roots of the largest palm tree, under many branches, there should be a treasure chest hidden. You clear away the branches, and here your expectation collides with a shocking reality. Instead of a chest, you see a hole, where at the bottom, with a wooden stick, is written: “Warren was here”. In this example, Warren had the same map as you. Moreover, he arrived on the island much later. The only difference is his model of achieving the goal. He understood that exploring the island was not a priority for him right now. Warren would be happy to return there, but this time with the goal of relaxing, perhaps on his brand-new ship. And while he came to the island to look for treasure, he is looking for it. Everything else, despite all its attractiveness, is for him a risk of not achieving the goal. I also think of my stock investing strategy as a map that helps me understand where I should turn in any given situation. The only thing that makes me follow the route is discipline. Unfortunately, I can't put the stock market on pause or ignore corporate news - they all require my attention. If I choose this path, I follow it. In other words, if I am not going to follow the recommendations of my map, then why did I choose this path? However, how difficult it is to look calmly at temptations. A man is not a robot. So we need some tricks that can help us with discipline. I think that in this regard, the most brilliant invention of mankind was and remains the alarm clock. No matter how much we sleep, when the alarm rings, we wake up. The most disciplined people even set several alarms to make sure they wake up! On the one hand, it irritates us like crazy, on the other hand, have you ever thought about how well it helps us relax? After all, there is no longer a need to wake up and determine the time by the brightness of the sun from the window - now we have an alarm clock! It turns out that discipline can be associated with pleasant things. By the way, on TradingView, such a brilliant invention is “Alerts”. I wrote about this function in the article: “A pill for missed opportunities” . I will only add that the alert system can be applied not only to the stock price, but also to the indicators that you use on the chart, as well as to a whole watch list. So, make a list of companies you want to keep an eye on. Then set alerts when a certain condition related to price or indicator value is reached. And finally, wait calmly. Yes, this is what will take up all your time - waiting. And believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to just wait. To develop this trait, I recommend creating habits that are organically linked to your strategy. For example, to decide about a deal, I constantly refer to news about the selected companies. It is significant for me to understand whether critical events have arisen that could influence my decision to open or close a position. However, regularly reading corporate news can hardly be called a fascinating activity for everyone. This is not looking at memes at all. Therefore, below I will give a few tricks that will help make this (and not only this) activity systemic: 1. Set your alarm for 1 hour before the stock market opens. Let this signal remind you that it is time to study the news on companies that have already been bought or are very close to being bought. 2. Make access to news as convenient as possible. Install the TradingView app on your phone, tablet, home computer or laptop. Don't have problems accessing information in any situation: if you are lying on the couch, sitting at the table or walking in the park. 3. Start with small steps. For example, start by reading only the headlines of news stories, rather than the entire story at once. Gradually increase the amount of incoming information. In one full hour, you can easily gather all the information you need to get a complete picture before the market opens. 4. Use modern technologies. For example, reading news from your voice assistant. This is convenient if you are on the move. 5. Combine your habit with another direction you are developing. For example, if you are learning a foreign language, practice reading the news in that language. 6. Organize public attention to your habit. For example, agree with your wife that for every time you skip a habit, you take her to a new restaurant (I think the most effective method for married men). Chat with like-minded people and/or post your thoughts on the news on social networks. The extra attention will motivate you to keep doing it. 7. Add a little joy to your news reading habit. If you like freshly squeezed juice, place a glass of it next to you. After the work you've done, be sure to thank yourself. For example, a delicious dessert or watching one episode of your favorite TV series. 8. Formulate your goal as follows: not to be someone who understands everything, but to be someone who never misses a single event. 9. Separately, I would like to draw attention to keeping a diary of your operations. This is an essential document that will help you track your progress - your Track Record. At the same time, it is one of the systemic habits. I recommend adding to Track Record information about cash transactions, trades, taxes, dividends, conditions that prompted you to open or close a position in shares. You can organize such a diary in any spreadsheet to calculate some of the metrics using formulas. Below, I will present the metrics that I use in my Track Record. All data in it will be provided as an example only. 10. And finally, I think it is significant to visualize your achievements not only in electronic form, but also to have a physical embodiment of your results. For example, these can be empty glass flasks where you can put coins or balls corresponding to certain actions: opening a position, closing a position with a profit, closing a position with a loss, paying dividends. One flask - one year. Such an installation will look beautiful in your room or office and will remind you of what you have finally achieved. You might even have some interesting stories to tell to curious guests who notice this piece of furniture.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
Business CycleAll the credits to Ostium labs insights. Found here Intuition behind different indicators NFCI - NATIONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX Note y axis is inverted. Rising NFCI here suggests loosening of financial conditions. Btc outperform in loose conditions. DRTSCILM - NET % OF BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS Note y axis is inverted. This tracks changes in the willingness of banks to lend, where tightening lending standards is indicative of caution, whereas looser lending standards suggest economic confidence. Here the graph is inverted - a rise shows improving willingness to lend and a fall shows tighter lending standards. HYG Real time proxy for demand of junk bonds which is a good proxy for risk appetite in the market. Demand for junk bonds is correlated with the rest of the risk curve, with Bitcoin tending to outperform during periods of strength for HYG, and vice-versa. BAMLH0A0HYM2 - HY ICE CREDIT SPREADS Note y axis is inverted. This measures the premium demanded by investors over government bonds. As one would imagine, wider credit spreads mean that more yield is being demanded to invest in junk bonds vs safe bonds, which itself is suggestive of risk in the economy. Narrow spreads, meanwhile, are indicative of confidence. The graph is inverted such that the peaks are the tightest spread. If credit spreads are narrow, risk appetite is high, which means assets further out the risk curve benefit. This is also suggestive of expansion vs contraction in the business cycle, where widening spreads would be suggestive of downturn and narrowing spreads of continued growth. USMNO/USNMNO - US MANUFACTURING ORDERS / NON-MANUFACTURING ORDERS Manufacturing New Orders growing faster than Non-Manufacturing New Orders is generally indicative of early recovery in a business cycle, whereas late cycle dynamics are more heavily weighted towards services, largely driven by consumer spending and therefore this ratio would begin to contract, as Non-Manufacturing New Orders dominate. USBC0I - US PMI A composite of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the US economy. Above 50 = expansion and below 50 = contraction. T10YIE - 10-YEAR INFLATION BREAKEVENS A market-based measure of average expected inflation over the next 10 years. Bitcoin likes it very much when the average expected inflation rate has bottomed and is trending higher and it generally underperforms when 10-year inflation breakevens are declining. Bitcoin also tends to front-run peaks in 10-year inflation breakevens by about 6-9 months, which in turn tend to peak after Global M2 YoY growth has peaked and is turning lower. This measure also is useful for understanding what is likely to happen to financial conditions - tighter after peaks and looser after bottoms. The clearest correlation here is not to the downside but the upside: when breakevens have bottomed out and cycle higher, Bitcoin tends to do very well indeed. DFII10 - 10-YEAR REAL YIELD Note y axis is inverted What is interesting here is that whilst there is not a strong correlation as real yields rise, there is a clearer correlation as real yields fall. Falling real yields tend to be supportive of Bitcoin, whilst rising real yields have occurred whilst BTC has outperformed and underperformed historically. This one is not as key for mapping out the market cycle, but still worth keeping an eye on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
1
Mastering EUR/USD TradingMastering EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair, offering unparalleled liquidity and potential opportunities for traders of all levels. The exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar reflects the economic relationship between the two global powerhouses. In this article, we’ll explore what makes the EUR/USD pair so popular, the factors influencing its price, and how to approach the pair. What Is the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Although you definitely know what the EUR/USD pair is, we can’t start this article without a short overview. The EUR/USD pair represents the exchange rate between the euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD), showing how many US dollars are needed to buy one euro. It's the most traded currency pair in the world, thanks to its significant role in the global economy. For traders, this often means tight spreads, high trading volumes, and potential opportunities in various market conditions. Introduced in 1999 with the euro's creation, the EUR/USD pair reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone—comprising 20 European countries—and the United States. It’s more than just a number on a chart; it’s a barometer for the performance of two of the largest economic regions. Movements in this pair are influenced by factors like interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic indicators such as GDP growth, and geopolitical events impacting either region. One standout feature of EUR/USD is its responsiveness to economic news. For example, a strong US jobs report might drive demand for the dollar, causing the pair to fall. Similarly, announcements from the ECB about monetary policy can send ripples through the market. This responsiveness makes EUR/USD a popular choice for traders who thrive on analysis of market dynamics. Why Traders Choose EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair’s unique characteristics make it stand out in the market, offering potential opportunities and strategic flexibility. - Unmatched Liquidity: EUR/USD is the most liquid forex pair, meaning there’s strong trading activity. This high liquidity often translates to tighter spreads, which reduce transaction costs for traders and makes it popular among scalpers and day traders. - 24/5 Accessibility: The pair can be traded almost anytime during the week, with peak activity during the overlap of London and New York trading sessions. This accessibility makes it popular as traders can capitalise on this pair regardless of their schedule. - Macro Sensitivity: The pair responds sharply to macroeconomic developments, such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and employment figures. This sensitivity may make it appealing to traders who thrive on analysis of major economic events. - Relatively Lower Volatility: While the pair offers ample price movement for potential trading opportunities, it’s often less volatile than emerging market pairs, making it a more measured option for risk-conscious traders. - Diverse Strategies: Its price action accommodates a variety of trading styles, from trend-following and range trading to news-based strategies. Whether you’re a short-term scalper or a long-term position trader, there’s flexibility to tailor your approach. Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD Movements The EUR/USD pair’s price movements are driven by a mix of economic, political, and market dynamics. Understanding these influences can help traders better analyse its behaviour. Economic Indicators Economic releases from the eurozone and the United States are key drivers of the pair's movements. Key reports include GDP growth, inflation rates, employment figures, and manufacturing activity. For instance, a strong US non-farm payroll report might boost the dollar, causing EUR/USD to drop. Similarly, weak eurozone inflation data could pressure the euro lower. Regularly monitoring economic calendars is crucial, as even small deviations from expectations can cause noticeable shifts. Central Bank Policies The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) wield significant influence. Interest rate decisions, monetary policy announcements, and commentary from central bank officials often trigger immediate reactions. A hawkish Fed, signalling higher interest rates, can strengthen the dollar, while dovish ECB policies might weaken the euro. Traders often focus on speeches from figures like the Fed Chair or ECB President for clues about future policy changes. Geopolitical Events Political developments can create volatility. For example, elections, trade negotiations, or economic sanctions affecting the US or eurozone can shift sentiment. Historical events like Brexit significantly impacted the euro, while US-China trade tensions affected the dollar’s performance. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite The EUR/USD pair is influenced by global market sentiment. During periods of risk aversion, the dollar often strengthens as a so-called safe-haven currency. Conversely, a risk-on environment, where investors seek higher-yielding assets, may support the euro. For example, during times of financial instability, traders may gravitate toward the relative security of the dollar, impacting the pair’s direction. Commodity Prices and Trade Balances While less direct, trade balances and commodity price changes also play a role. Higher commodity prices can weaken the euro due to increased import costs for the Eurozone, while benefiting the US as a commodity producer. Similarly, the Eurozone's trade surplus tends to support the euro, whereas the US trade deficit can pressure the dollar. Shifts in these factors often lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate. How to Trade EUR/USD A well-rounded EUR/USD trading strategy involves several key steps that help traders build a structured approach adaptable to market dynamics. 1. Finding a Broker Offering EUR/USD Trading To start trading EUR/USD, a broker providing forex trading services is essential. Many brokers offer the pair, but traders often prioritise competitive spreads, low fees, and reliable execution. For example, FXOpen provides EUR/USD trading with access to 4 advanced platforms, tight spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and fast execution speeds based on a wide range of liquidity providers. 2. Choosing a Trading Style The high liquidity of the EUR/USD pair allows traders to choose different strategies based on their objectives and market involvement: - Scalping: High liquidity and volatility during market events of EUR/USD allow traders to take advantage of scalping. - Day Trading: Day traders may also capitalise on significant market liquidity and volatility of the euro to US dollar pair. - Swing Trading: As the pair movements depend on macroeconomic analysis, trades may focus on price swings over days or weeks. - Position Trading: EUR/USD moves in solid market trends. So, those who prefer a longer-term strategy could apply it to this market. 3. Understanding and Analysing the Market Environment EUR/USD moves between trending and ranging phases. Identifying these conditions helps traders adapt their strategies. Tools like moving averages, trendlines, and oscillators such as Stochastic or Awesome Oscillator are commonly used to gauge market momentum. For ranging markets, traders may focus on support and resistance levels to anticipate price reversals. A clear technical strategy often includes identifying entry and exit points. This could involve analysing chart patterns, candlestick formations, or tools like Fibonacci retracements. Consistency in applying these methods helps traders build confidence in their analysis. 4. Understanding the Macroeconomic Environment EUR/USD reacts strongly to macroeconomic developments. Traders often assess economic indicators like interest rate changes or inflation reports, alongside sentiment-driven events such as central bank statements. Combining macroeconomic understanding with technical tools can provide a well-rounded view of the pair’s dynamics. 5. Considering Timeframes and Trading Sessions EUR/USD is most active during the overlap between the London and New York sessions. Short-term traders often focus on these times for potentially higher liquidity, usually using the 1-minute to 1-hour charts, while longer-term traders may not be as session-dependent, typically relying on 4-hour to 1-week charts. 6. Using Risk Management Traders typically integrate risk management into their approach. This includes using stop losses, understanding the impact of leverage, and sizing positions appropriately to manage risk exposure. By balancing risk and reward, traders aim to protect their capital while seeking returns. Challenges of EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD trading comes with its own set of challenges, despite its popularity, including: Volatility During Key Events EUR/USD is highly sensitive to economic data releases and central bank announcements. For example, higher-than-expected inflation data from the US can trigger a sharp rally in the dollar, pushing the pair lower. These movements can create potential opportunities but also increase the risk of losses if trades aren’t carefully managed. Overlapping Influences EUR/USD is driven by two major economies, meaning traders monitor a broad range of factors. For example, strong US economic data may boost the dollar, while strong eurozone growth could simultaneously support the euro, creating a mixed market reaction. Keeping track of both regions’ data releases and news can feel overwhelming, particularly since the euro sees releases for several key economies, like France and Germany, as well as the broader eurozone. Interest Rate Differentials Interest rate expectations between the ECB and the Fed significantly impact the pair. A surprise divergence in monetary policy may lead to rapid shifts in the EUR/USD, catching traders off-guard. Likewise, ignoring fundamentals, especially differentials in monetary policy, can lead a trader to rely too heavily on technical analysis, which may mean they trade against a strong trend driven by macroeconomics. Session Volatility The pair’s most active periods occur during the London and New York trading sessions. While this high liquidity can offer opportunities, it also means sharp intraday moves are more likely. Traders unprepared for this session-specific volatility may find themselves exposed to quick losses. The Bottom Line Trading EUR/USD offers potential opportunities thanks to its liquidity, accessibility, and responsiveness to market dynamics. This major forex pair may suit traders of all styles. Ready to start? Open an FXOpen account today and access EUR/USD trading with competitive spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and advanced tools. FAQ Why Is EUR/USD Most Traded? EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair due to its deep liquidity and accessibility. As the currencies of two of the world’s largest economies—the eurozone and the United States—it attracts traders globally. When to Trade EUR/USD? According to theory, the best time to trade EUR/USD is usually during the London and New York trading sessions overlap, roughly between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM GMT (winter time) and 12:00 PM and 4:00 PM GMT (summer time). This period usually offers higher liquidity and more significant price movements, which appeal to traders using intraday strategies. Which Pair Correlates with EUR/USD? EUR/USD often positively correlates with GBP/USD. These relationships stem from economic ties and shared market influences. Is Gold and EUR/USD Correlated? Gold and EUR/USD occasionally move together because both are inversely linked to the US dollar. When the dollar weakens, both gold and the euro may gain value, creating periods of positive correlation. How Many Pips Does EUR/USD Move Daily? According to statistics, the EUR/USD pair typically moves between 50 and 100 pips daily, depending on market conditions and news events. How Do You Trade the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Traders often combine technical analysis with macroeconomic insights to navigate EUR/USD. Potential high liquidity and tight spreads support strategies ranging from scalping to position trading. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Liquidity CycleAll credits to Ostium insights which can be found here Intuition behind different indicators. DXY and USDCNH NOTE: The DXY and USDCNH are on an inverted scale They are a proxy for the US dollar strength. BTC suffers as dollar strengthens and vice versa. Global Liquidity Index Rising global liquidity and strength in bitcoin are highly correlated. If we expect global balance sheet expansion, we should anticipate outperformance in BTC. GLOBAL M2 / GLOBAL GDP It is the rate of growth of global money supply outpacing the rate of growth in goods and services produced globally, where periods of of growth in this ratio correlate highly with outperformance in Bitcoin and periods of decline in this ratio are generally unsupportive of Bitcoin. M2SL/DXY At its core, this is a measure of the growth rate of domestic Dollars vs. the strength of the Dollar internationally. As M2SL/DXY rises (US M2 is growing faster than the Dollar is strengthening vs. other currencies), this is a proxy for growing liquidity in the financial system - in effect, a good barometer for the relative easiness or tightness of financial conditions. This is also indicative of weakening purchasing power of the Dollar itself via currency debasement. Lastly, a rising M2SL/DXY can indicate that international borrowers can access dollar liquidity more favourably. This all, in turn, leads to a growing risk appetite and capital flow into financial assets, as we can see from the ratio mapped vs BTC/USD. As the ratio declines, the inverse is true - liquidity is tighter and financial conditions are less easy, often leading to a flight away from riskier assets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
FOMO Traps: How Market Makers Capitalize on Panic SellingHello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 3 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 3 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of Bitcoin and its role in the global financial landscape. The influence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) on market prices is particularly pronounced across global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market is certainly not immune to its effects. Imagine that today, many of you log into your profiles, expecting a minor 5% dip, only to be taken aback by a much sharper decline. Instead of the anticipated 5%, you find your portfolio down by 10%, or in some cases, even 30%. In this situation, how do you respond? This is where the market’s true dynamics come into play. Rather than holding steady, many of you might impulsively decide to liquidate your positions in a panic, believing that this is the best way to minimize further losses. However, as you make these decisions, the market maker — who operates from an elevated position, almost like a mastermind pulling the strings in an anime like *Solo Leveling* — watches this reaction with amusement. Their grin widens as they anticipate your next move. This is the essence of FOMO at work. As fear sets in, some of you may be tempted to take short positions, convinced that the market will continue to fall and that you can secure profits in the downturn. However, the market maker has likely anticipated this and is preparing for the next step: hunting your stop-loss orders. Always keep in mind that in the world of cryptocurrency, the true market manipulators operate like skilled hunters, waiting to capitalize on your fear and mistakes. To avoid falling into these emotional traps , it’s essential to take a step back and reassess your strategy. Acting purely on emotion can cloud your judgment, leading to decisions that could harm your long-term investment goals. It’s crucial to treat your assets with the respect they deserve, especially given the time, effort, and sacrifice it took to accumulate them. Establish clear and reasonable stop-loss and profit-taking levels before making any decisions, and stick to them. While I personally lean towards a bearish outlook on the market in the immediate term, it’s important to recognize that market makers typically aim for a few more rallies — perhaps even pushing for one or two additional all-time highs — before the broader crypto winter settles in. These cycles are common in volatile markets, and it’s vital to be prepared for both upward surges and inevitable corrections. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 FOMO plays a huge role in market moves, especially in crypto. Many of you might expect a small drop, but instead, face a sharp decline, leading to panic selling. This plays right into the hands of market makers, who capitalize on your fear, sometimes even hunting your stop-losses. To avoid falling into this trap, stay calm, stick to your plan, set clear profit and loss levels, and avoid emotional decisions. While the market may dip, I believe there could still be a few more highs before the crypto winter hits. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
12
Stop Loss Mastery: Methods Of Trade ProtectionStop Loss and Take Profit represent the fundamental boundaries of every trade, acting as the cornerstones of risk management in trading. While both are important, Stop Loss carries particular significance and is considered more crucial than Take Profit. In manual trading, implementing a Stop Loss is absolutely essential, whereas Take Profit settings remain optional, offering traders more flexibility in managing their profitable positions. Traders can employ various methods to set their SL levels, and while specific trading systems often dictate their own rules, several universal approaches have proven effective. Let's examine one of the most common methods. 📍 On the Local Extrema This method offers two primary variations. The first involves placing your Stop Loss relative to the signal candle. For buy positions, you would set the Stop Loss several pips below the minimum of the bullish signal candlestick. Conversely, for sell positions, you would place it several pips above the maximum of the bearish signal candlestick. The second variation focuses on the last local extreme point rather than the signal candle itself. When opening a buy position, you would position your Stop Loss a few points below the most recent local minimum. For sell positions, you would place it above the most recent local maximum. However, traders should be aware of a significant drawback to these approaches: their predictability. Market makers and experienced traders can easily identify these common Stop Loss placement patterns on their charts. They often exploit this knowledge by deliberately pushing prices to levels where they anticipate a concentration of Stop Loss orders. After triggering these stops and forcing smaller traders to close their positions at a loss, they frequently allow the price to resume its original direction. This practice, known as "stop hunting," particularly affects retail traders who rely on these conventional placement methods. 📍 Setting Stop Loss by Key Price Levels When using price levels for Stop Loss placement, traders can take advantage of significant order accumulation points that are naturally more resistant to manipulation. This method requires placing the Stop Loss a few points beyond the key level - below when buying and above when selling. A key advantage of this approach is that it typically positions the Stop Loss well beyond the last local minimum (for buy trades) or maximum (for sell trades). This strategic placement helps protect positions from premature exits that might occur with simpler Stop Loss methods. 📍 Technical Indicator-Based Stop Loss The ATR or Parabolic SAR indicator offers a straightforward approach to Stop Loss placement that appeals particularly to newer traders. Its clear visual markers provide explicit guidance for Stop Loss positioning, with traders simply placing their stops at the SAR marker level. This method offers an interesting advantage: traders can manually adjust their Stop Loss with each new candle formation, creating a flexible alternative to traditional trailing stops. However, like extrema-based stops, indicator-based placement can be predictable and potentially vulnerable to market manipulation. 📍 Stop Loss Based on Fundamentals Rather than relying solely on pre-set Stop Loss levels, fundamental analysis often guides manual exit decisions. Prudent traders might close positions before significant market events, such as: • At the end of the American trading session when market activity naturally declines • Shortly before major economic news releases that could trigger substantial price movements Some traders incorporate fundamental factors into their Stop Loss calculations. For instance, they might set stops based on average daily price movements for specific currency pairs - like using a 70-pip Stop Loss for FX:EURUSD trades, reflecting that pair's typical daily range. 📍 Advanced Technical Stop Loss Strategies Beyond basic indicator-based stops, traders can employ more sophisticated technical analysis tools for exit trades. These might include: • Moving average crossovers • Stochastic oscillator overbought/oversold signals These approaches often require active management, with traders monitoring indicators in real-time and executing manual exits when their chosen signals appear. 🔹 Psychological Aspects of Stop Loss Management The psychological impact of Stop Loss execution presents a significant challenge for many traders. Even when a Stop Loss performs its intended function of limiting potential losses, traders may experience: • Feelings of personal failure • Diminished confidence in their trading system • General market skepticism • Emotional distress after multiple consecutive stops 🔹 Avoiding Mental Stop Losses While some traders prefer "mental" stops over actual platform orders, this approach carries significant risks: • Technical failures could prevent manual exits • Emotional barriers might delay necessary exits • Small losses can balloon into significant account drawdowns To protect against these risks, traders should always implement their mental stops as actual platform orders, ensuring systematic risk management regardless of market conditions or psychological pressures. This structured approach to Stop Loss placement combines technical precision with psychological awareness, helping traders develop both the skills and mindset needed for successful risk management. 🔹 Additional Position Management Methods In trading, while Stop Loss and Take Profit orders form the foundation of exit strategies, several sophisticated techniques can help traders optimize their position management. Let's explore these methods that go beyond basic exit orders. ⚫️ Breakeven Stop Adjustment One of the most psychologically powerful position management techniques involves moving your Stop Loss to the trade entry point, effectively eliminating downside risk while maintaining upside potential. This strategy becomes particularly valuable when price movement has demonstrated strong momentum in your favor. The conventional approach suggests adjusting to breakeven when the price has moved in your favor by double the initial Stop Loss distance. For instance, consider a trade with a 20-pip Stop Loss and a 60-pip Take Profit target. When the position shows 40 pips of profit (twice the initial risk), moving the Stop Loss to the entry point ensures you won't lose money on the trade while still allowing for further gains. ⚫️ Dynamic Risk Management with Trailing Stops Trailing Stops represent an evolution in risk management, allowing traders to protect accumulated profits while maintaining exposure to continued favorable price movement. This technique dynamically adjusts your Stop Loss level as the price moves in your favor, essentially "trailing" behind the price at a predetermined distance. ⚫️ Strategic Partial Position Closure Traders often face a dilemma when price approaches their Take Profit level: should they close the entire position or attempt to capture additional gains? The partial closure strategy offers a balanced solution. When market conditions suggest potential for extended movement beyond your initial target, consider closing a portion of your position (typically 70-80%) at the original Take Profit level while allowing the remainder to pursue more ambitious targets. This approach becomes particularly relevant when trading near significant technical levels. For example, if you're holding a long position with a Take Profit set below a major resistance level, and technical indicators suggest this level might break, closing most of your position secures profits while maintaining exposure to potential breakout gains. 📍 Conclusion While numerous exit strategies exist in trading, successful execution requires more than just mechanical application of techniques. True trading mastery emerges from the ability to recognize market context, understand both technical and fundamental factors, maintain emotional equilibrium, and make flexible decisions within established risk parameters. The journey of becoming a skilled trader involves developing judgment about when to apply different exit strategies. This wisdom comes through experience in the markets, careful observation of price action, and a deep understanding of how different approaches work in varying market conditions. Traders gradually build their expertise by starting with fundamental concepts and progressively incorporating more sophisticated position management techniques into their trading approach. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
10
Trade high probabilities using game theoryAccording to statistics, 95% of traders are losing longterm. Not because they lack skill, but because they involve in high variance (or poor probability) situations. What is game theory? we can define GT with three principles. *People dont want to lose. (hence.. predictable). *People buy good things at good price, or they are profit maximizing. *Everyone is strategic. ** we assume that "nobody can predict future". ** markets respond to feedbacks or signals. Practice: the higher something goes, potential narrows and risk increases. Deeper something falls, "potential" becomes attractive. Once market decides that it will fall -- people assume crash as possibility. People who can buy at a strong trend line - has benefit of having more information. (1) Downtrending VIX highs and accumulating lows. a strong signal about SPX peak, with everyone expecting a market correction before US election. ---> GT in practice. (2) pre-election. Markets be wobbly, pointing to 50-50 probability or risk. Maybe there was fear of NVDA/AAPL high valuations, or the fear due to Trump tariff policy (markets are 6m forward looking) as bond yields were rallying. If we assume statistically, markets boom after elections. We can predict GT in action (or call it market forces). imo that still is a profitable risk. People hate uncertainty and they love guarantees. So the "wobble" was reasonable. (3) VIX higher low.. predictably (GT) sell off follows. Almost as by the book. other way to put it? people maximize potential while minimize loses/risk. There are periods of volatile markets and periods for one directional rallies. P.S. Blue arrows are longterm macd turning points.
ICEUS:NYFANGEducation
by citsvar
Trump's Meme Coin: Fantasy or Future of Digital Currency?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 10 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 10 concise lines at the end. I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of OFFICIAL TRUMP and its role in the global financial landscape. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Trump Coin (TRUMP) Individuals involved in financial markets, particularly in the realm of cryptocurrencies, are typically well-versed in the extreme and often unpredictable volatility that characterizes these markets. This volatility is especially pronounced in the world of meme coins, which are highly speculative assets tied to specific narratives, personalities, or movements. These coins are frequently associated with influential individuals or certain ideological concepts, and their prices fluctuate wildly depending on the sentiment and behavior of their supporters. Such markets are inherently high-risk and subject to rapid price swings, driven more by emotion, speculation, and social media influence than traditional financial metrics. In this volatile environment, investors often chase short-term gains, yet the dangers of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and impulsive decision-making can lead to significant losses. With this backdrop, it is critical to examine what might happen to the price of a particular meme coin and its investors over the coming months. I will illustrate this scenario with two distinct examples, providing an in-depth exploration of the underlying dynamics. To provide context and clarity, let us start by considering an old proverb: "A fire that rises swiftly, reaches the sky, and burns brightly will just as quickly burn out once its fuel is consumed." This metaphor is directly applicable to the meteoric rise of certain meme coins in the cryptocurrency space, which, while experiencing explosive growth in a short period, are often prone to rapid declines as their speculative fuel runs out. The unsustainable trading volumes observed during these sudden price surges may seem exciting at first, but they often raise questions about the underlying stability and long-term prospects of such assets. For those who jumped into meme coin markets at their peak, the consequences can be devastating. Many are left with significant losses, as the market quickly corrects itself. The cryptocurrency space, in particular, is known for its volatility and unforgiving nature, and it often reveals harsh realities to those who harbor dreams of becoming instant millionaires. In this environment, the fear of further losses drives many investors to sell their positions, often at a loss, further driving down prices. As a result, I predict that the price of certain meme coins will continue to decline in the short term as fearful investors liquidate their holdings, ultimately selling to the more experienced players or market "whales" who have the capital and expertise to capitalize on these fluctuations. However, there is another perspective to consider. In certain instances, after a significant decline, a bullish trend may emerge. This scenario is particularly relevant when influential individuals such as Donald Trump or Elon Musk become involved in promoting or backing a cryptocurrency or meme coin. Both Trump and Musk have demonstrated an uncanny ability to influence financial markets, including the cryptocurrency space, with their public statements and actions. Their influence is far-reaching, and it is unlikely that they would let their associated meme coins languish in failure, especially as they continue to maintain their prominent positions in the public eye. After a correction, it is plausible to expect a recovery in the value of such coins, driven by renewed interest, media attention, and market sentiment. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in meme coins and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the How to Buy Trump Coin (TRUMP) To acquire Trump Coin (TRUMP), you must first sign up on a cryptocurrency exchange that supports it. Look for a platform with strong security features, such as two-factor authentication and data encryption, to ensure the safety of your investments. Additionally, consider the transaction fees, as these can eat into your profits. The exchange should also be user-friendly and offer an easy interface for smooth trading. To make the best choice, reading reviews and feedback from other users is essential for selecting a trustworthy platform. The Trump Coin (TRUMP) Phenomenon One of the most notable developments in the meme coin space in recent times has been the introduction of Trump Coin (TRUMP), a cryptocurrency launched by none other than former U.S. President Donald Trump. As one of the most polarizing and influential figures in modern political history, Trump’s foray into the world of meme coins has captured the attention of both his supporters and critics alike. Trump Coin (officially branded as OFFICIAL TRUMP), as its name suggests, is a digital asset exclusively associated with Donald Trump. The coin was introduced in celebration of his political comeback, following his electoral victory. Trump himself referred to the creation of his coin as "the most memorable meme of the century," signaling the high level of attention and excitement surrounding its launch. When the tweet announcing the release of Trump Coin was first shared, some onlookers initially believed Trump’s personal social media account had been compromised. However, it quickly became clear that Trump had indeed launched his own cryptocurrency, marking a historic moment in the world of digital assets. Trump Coin, denoted by the trading symbol TRUMP, was introduced with a call for users to purchase the coin and join the community of supporters celebrating his political triumph. The initial response to Trump Coin was overwhelming. Within a matter of hours, the coin's value surged by more than 300%, and its market capitalization surpassed $6 million. This rapid price appreciation demonstrates the power of media influence and public sentiment in driving the success of meme coins, particularly when they are tied to high-profile figures like Donald Trump. Trump Coin, in many ways, tells a story of resilience and defiance. It represents a leader who refuses to be defeated, even in the face of adversity. The coin also alludes to the 2024 incident when Trump was shot at but, with clenched fists, refused to surrender and shouted the word "FIGHT." This moment of defiance has been immortalized in the Trump Coin, symbolizing strength, perseverance, and an unyielding will to succeed. The Mechanics of Trump Coin (TRUMP) Trump Coin (TRUMP) is built on the Solana blockchain, a high-performance blockchain known for its speed and low transaction fees. Despite the coin’s association with a prominent political figure, it is important to note that Trump Coin has no official ties to political campaigns, government offices, or any public institutions. It is purely a digital asset created for entertainment and speculative purposes. The total supply of Trump Coin is set to reach 1 billion TRUMP tokens over the next three years. The distribution plan for the coin is as follows, with the majority of the tokens allocated to groups affiliated with Trump’s team and organization: 36% of tokens allocated to Group 1 (Creators) 18% allocated to Group 2 (Creators) 18% allocated to Group 3 (Creators) 10% allocated for liquidity 10% allocated for public sale 2% allocated to Group 4 (Creators) 2% allocated to Group 5 (Creators) This structured distribution ensures that key stakeholders in the creation and promotion of Trump Coin are well-compensated, while also allowing for public participation in the coin’s success. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 Most traders in financial markets are aware of the extreme volatility, especially with meme coins, which can skyrocket due to hype around a person or trend. These coins often fluctuate wildly, causing both huge gains and losses. Trump Coin (TRUMP), created by former U.S. President Donald Trump, is one such meme coin that gained attention after his victory announcement, surging over 300% in value within hours. However, meme coins are risky, and many investors may face significant losses if the hype fades. Trump Coin is built on the Solana blockchain, with its total supply set to reach 1 billion tokens over three years. While its value may rise again due to Trump's influence, it's important to approach these markets with caution. Always research before diving in, as meme coins are highly speculative. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
7
Part 1: How to Analyze Events in the Forex Market? The forex market is one of the most dynamic and volatile financial markets in the world. It is deeply influenced by global events, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders who understand how to analyze these events can make informed decisions and capitalize on market movements. Influence Of the Global Events: The forex market is directly linked to global economic health. Since currencies represent the economies of their respective countries, any significant event like an interest rate decision, inflation data, or geopolitical conflict. It can cause major fluctuations in currency prices. Here’s global events play important role: - Central Bank Policies: When the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) changes interest rates, it impacts global liquidity and investment flows. - Economic Data Releases: GDP growth, inflation, and employment reports provide insights into economic stability, affecting investor confidence. - Geopolitical Events: Wars, elections, trade agreements, and diplomatic conflicts impact currency demand and risk sentiment. What Happens When News Is Published? When a major economic event or news release occurs, the forex market reacts instantly. Here’s the typical stages of events: Stage 1: Market Expectations: Before the news release, traders anticipate the outcome based on forecasts. The market often prices in expectations. Stage 2: Immediate Volatility: If the actual data differs from the forecast, there’s a sharp price movement in the affected currency pairs. Stage 3: Liquidity Fluctuations: Spreads widen, and liquidity dries up momentarily as traders rush to execute orders. Stage 4: Short-Term Correction: After the initial reaction, the market stabilizes, and price action follows the broader trend. Major Events: Central Bank Meetings – Institutions like the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE set monetary policies. Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency, while rate cuts weaken it. Forward guidance also plays a role in shaping long-term trends. Inflation Reports (CPI & PPI): These measure inflation levels, influencing central bank decisions. Higher inflation often leads to interest rate hikes, strengthening the currency, while lower inflation may result in monetary easing, weakening it. Employment Data (NFP & Job Reports) – The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator. Strong job growth supports a stronger USD, while weak employment data signals economic trouble. GDP Growth Reports –:A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate boosts investor confidence and strengthens the currency, while economic contraction leads to depreciation. Political & Geopolitical Events: Elections, government policies, trade wars, and conflicts create uncertainty, often pushing investors toward safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, or CHF One's Loss, Another's Win: When the U.S. releases strong economic data, such as higher-than-expected GDP growth, strong job reports (NFP), or an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, The demand for the U.S. dollar increases. This leads to USD appreciation against other currencies, including the euro. For example, ---> EUR/USD falls : USD is gaining strength, it takes fewer dollars to buy 1 euro, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to drop. ---> USD/EUR rises : USD is now wortth more, the inverse exchange rate (USD/EUR) increases, meaning 1 USD can now buy more euro. Key strategies for trading events: •Stay Ahead with an Event Calendar: Keep track of important economic events and central bank meetings to anticipate potential market-moving news. • Gauge Market Expectations: Understand forecasts and market sentiment before the event to predict how the market might react. • Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your trades from excessive risk by setting stop-loss orders to cap potential losses during volatile moves. • Wait for Market Stability: Allow the market to settle after the event to avoid getting caught in the initial volatility and better assess the trend. • Evaluate the Market’s Response: Assess the immediate market reaction to the event to identify if the initial price move is sustainable or a short-term spike. Drawbacks of Trading News: High Volatility & Whipsaws: Prices can spike in both directions before settling on a trend, leading to stop-loss hunting. Widened Spreads: During news releases, brokers often widen spreads, increasing trading costs. Slippage: Rapid price movements can lead to orders being executed at unexpected prices. Emotional Trading: Sudden market swings can trigger impulsive decisions, leading to losses. Market Manipulation: Big players and institutions often move the market unpredictably before major news releases. In the next part, we will focus on the specific events and strategies.
Education
by forextidings