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Fundamental Analysis

What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it. The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine. However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends. Dow Theory: The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist. Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century. This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends. The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean. He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole. The Paradigms of Dow Theory: To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms Three major market trends: The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years. Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends. Primary trends have three distinct phases: Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic. In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors. The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market. The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices. On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess. During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend. The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum. The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases. Stock market discount everything: Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole. For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward. Trend confirms with volume: When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts Index confirm each other: When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend. This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend. Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal: Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal. How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis? The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits. As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes. In conclusion: The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits. The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing. ___________________________ 💻📞☎️ always do your research. 💌📫📃 If you have any questions, you can write me in the comments below, and I will answer them. 📊📌❤️And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by khushaljain023
Let's Talk Liquidity! ⚒️At first, Liquidity may seem like an abstract and confusing concept reserved for only those Finance nerds and geeks to tackle. Turns out it's really not too sophisticated after all and can be though of in terms of Fomo. Fomo if you are not aware already is simply a concept related to chasing the market because of a Fear of missing out. Any action out of fear is typically not the best choice. In trading, this is especially true. Liquidity is what the market needs prior to a big move. Liquidity doesn't necessarily mean that the market needs to pin an extreme low or high from the previous session. Liquidity is also gathered when the market ranges/consolidates for awhile. If you go back and backtest, you will observe that preceding a large move, the market usually consolidates first. Liquidity also dries up during Asian session. You can observe that the volatility is much smaller than London/Ny session as the market moves alot less # of pips. Liquidity dries up prior to news annoucnemnts becuase of uncertainty obviously. This is the very reason why the market moves so much during news is because of lower participation from larger market participants, therefore an increased chance of wild and random price movements. This is explained more in depth in this concept video, Let's talk Liquidity.
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
6 Top Trading Time WastersYou need to stop wasting precious time. I have had members who’ve been with me for 15 years and haven’t even taken a trade. I have written this article in a way that you can relate to the problems with traders wasting time. Ready? #1. Wait for Inspiration Trader A: “I just can’t trade today. I’m waiting for that magical moment when inspiration strikes!” SOLUTION: Waiting for inspiration in trading is like waiting for money to rock up at your doorstop. It doesn’t happen! Successful traders create their own inspiration, discipline and integration by TAKING ACTION. You want a sign. Here’s a sign. Start today, do not delay and don’t wait for another sign. #2. Complaining Trader A: “The market is so unpredictable and complicated! I can’t catch a break.” SOLUTION: Stop complaining and start acting, adapting, growing and evolving. Markets change, that’s the only constant about it. And they move up, down and sideways. So, instead of moaning about it, embrace the volatility. Complaining won’t make you a better trader, but adapting to change will. #3. Doubting Trader A: “I’m not sure if I can make this trade. It’s going to be a loser.” SOLUTION: Doubt is the enemy of success. Trust your analysis, track record and your stats. Stick to your strategy just keep at it. This is a long term game to success. When you doubt yourself, you manifest a deeper element of self-failure. You need to stop wasting precious time and opportunities. Confidence, certainty and trust is key! #4. Comparing Trader A: “Look at their profits! I wish I could trade like them.” SOLUTION: Comparison is the thief of joy and the delayer of self success. You should only focus on your own journey. You are running your own marathon. It doesn’t matter how much money you have. It doesn’t matter how long you’ve been trading., It doesn’t matter if others are doing better. You need to focus on your trading time line. #5. Excuse Giving Trader A: “I didn’t trade well because the market was too volatile.” SOLUTION: Excuses won’t make you a better trader. I don’t have enough time. I don’t have enough money. I don’t have enough experience I don’t have enough patience. I don’t have enough anything. I repeat – Excuses won’t make you a better trader. Take responsibility and take accountability for your decisions, good or bad. Learn from your mistakes and use them to refine your trading strategy, stats and track record. Excuses only waste time; accountability fuels improvement. #6. Fear of Failure Trader A: “What if I lose all my money? I can’t handle the risk.” SOLUTION: As I always like to say. You ONLY fail when you quit. Fear is natural, but letting it control your actions is a mistake. You need to manage your trading and risks better. You need stay laser focused with tunnel vision. With trading you should not AVOID losses – as they are inevitable. You should embrace both winners and losses to come with the trading venture. You can’t win them all. But you also can’t lose them all. Keep that in mind when you trade. FINAL WORDS So, by now you should have one thing in your mind. Stop wasting time with your trading. Every day you delay is another profit opportunity you’re letting go of. Let’s sum up the 6 Time Wasters with trading. #1. Wait for Inspiration #2. Complaining #3. Doubting #4. Comparing #5. Excuse Giving #6. Fear of Failure
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CHART ANALYSIS:THE ILLUSION OF CONTROLThe psychology of chart analysis is the ability to quickly find patterns and key levels on a chart. It is the ability to quickly switch timeframes and see the main trend. But traders often fall into the other side of the equation. They turn into hypnotized people who do not take their eyes off the magic of charts. The trader hypnotizes the chart and the chart hypnotizes the trader. And it is difficult to break this vicious circle, but it is necessary. Psychological Dependence On The Price Chart 📉🧠 Chart hypnosis has a major problem when it comes to graphical hypnosis constant monitoring of charts takes away time that could be used more productively. It drains the trader's energy: eyes get tired, attention gets tired. The trader takes wishful thinking for reality and makes mistakes. PSYCHOLOGICAL PITFALLS OF GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS: 📊 Constant Monitoring 👀 The chart is captivating, especially when a trade is open. You can follow the price movement for hours, enjoying inwardly when it goes in the right direction and worrying when it reverses. The brain is switched off. A person does not think, does not even analyze the meaning of the changing pictures. This is the most real hypnosis. You can watch water flow forever, fire burn forever. And you can watch price charts forever. Remember how much time you spend watching essentially useless shorts on YouTube? And how much time uselessly watching charts? The only difference is that video relaxes you, while constant price monitoring leads to stress, because your money is at stake. The Nervous Chef Phenomenon 😓 Another psychological trap of chart analysis is constant checking of price changes. It would seem that a trade has been opened within the framework of risk management, stops have been set, take profit has been set. Why do you need to look at the chart every five minutes? But a trader persistently checks every 5 minutes "is the water boiling?" or "are the potatoes boiled?". Such dependence is not only in trading. Similarly, every 5 minutes we check social networks and phone: "What if someone wrote a comment under my photo?", "What if someone sent me a new message?". It is logical that after checking the chart every minute extra money will not appear on the account. But there will be a false sense of control, not counting the loss of time. The more often you open the lid of the pot, checking the boiling of water, the longer the water takes to boil. Emotional Mistakes 📌 Statistics show that 70% of the time the price moves chaotically. Trying to constantly look for a trend or pattern on the chart, you fall into the trap of emotions. Under the emotional influence you open a trade in a bad time zone or close it prematurely, although initially there was a clear direction; to strictly follow the risk management, the established rules of the trading system. Illusion Of Control 💡 According to statistics, a person has a much higher chance of losing their life in a traffic accident than flying in an airplane. But people continue to fear airplanes more than cars. To the person behind the steering wheel, it's like: "I'm buckled up, I know the traffic regulations, I'm in control." This is called the illusion of control. There is a classic experiment in psychology. One group of participants is asked to choose a lottery ticket, the second group is given one. Then they are offered to exchange tickets. The second group goes to the exchange without questions, while the first group is less willing to exchange. The experiment shows that people who made an independent decision feel responsible for it and therefore are more confident in winning. There is a similar trap in trading. The trader thinks that she/he has mastered technical analysis, has considered all the risks, and therefore opened the trade correctly. And now she/he watches the chart every 5 minutes to make sure that she/he is right. In psychology, this is called "thirst for control". How to Overcome It? ✅ Catch yourself thinking that you've already fallen into one of these traps. And if so, force yourself to simply turn off the screen. Convince yourself that all the rules of risk management have been followed, which means you don't need to spend time on constant monitoring. Force yourself away from the monitor. Watch TV, take care of the garden, do some repairs, go for a bike ride. In other words, there is a temptation to constantly sit at the monitor - try to be as far away from it as possible. In summary, the psychology of chart analysis in trading is crucial for identifying patterns and key levels and understanding the overall trend. However, overdependence on charts can lead to psychological pitfalls like constant monitoring, causing mental fatigue and mistakes. To overcome these challenges, we should recognize when we fall into these traps, trust our risk management strategies, and engage in other activities to maintain a balanced life. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
21
Bubble theory 🫧 BTC minersThere are two type of bubbles and they burst for different reasons? A bubble is when too many people hold something and what has driven prices up, now as a force works against them. There's a saying. Buy things when everyone is a skeptic. Sell when a taxi driver starts talking about investing. There are no more buyers left on top. First bubble is when volume dries up as the price hits extremes. Second is when peoples attitudes or sentiment, or opinions change to bearish. And that can happen over night, like a switch. It's interesting and finance is a social science. Some bubbles can burst due to external events, like start of wars or some financial crisis. There can be strong bull markets and most of times, these external events would just be noise? > Was btc miners in bubble? And what type of bubble? I think Yes and No? Whenever there's a risk free trade, supported by factors a bubble emerges? The price of Mara was rallying hard, trend was strong. You could argue people got over optimistic, knowing the ETF decision was a risk event. -> therefor (the burst) was sentiment driven. But also predictable? Bubble is when too many people hold asset and there re no buyers left. Similar how a taxi driver is hype about investing. Technical analysis gives you perspective and context. In 1st instance, impulse was too high and volume indicates crowding? It's tricky because it looks so bullish. In 2nd instance, impulse was too low. Price action looked bullish? bubbles happen when too many people hold the shares and expect them to rise. If 1st instance was sentiment switch driven, then 2nd time, the bubble must burst due to exhaustion (or no people left to buy... at these prices.. similar how taxi driver hops in the trade at the wrong time). Factors and thesis can be bullish - and bubble still bursts. Is NVDA and SMCI a bubble? I think there is difference between NVDA, SMCI investors and their time horizon? It could be. I think people believe their investment is supported by the tech drivers. Every dip should be bought out by smart investors and these are the best assets to own in next 5-10 years. It doesnt mean there cant be external events and risks. again- bubble is when too many people are in investment. So bubble can burst either by them changing their sentiment or beliefs (maybe fundamentals must change?). Or if price is just so ridiculously high or there is no money left at sidelines, that trend can't be sustainable. When markets rally - everyone only reads good news and ignores bad news. And vice versa. #HowardMarks #MarketCycle ---> The Risk-Reward buying at these tops just isn't great. That's why they burst. Accompanied by sentiment risks, that hide behind the hood.
NASDAQ:MARAEducation
by citsvar
2
The top Forex Market correlations1-Gold (XAU/USD) and AUD/USD: Gold prices often exhibit a positive correlation with the Australian dollar (AUD/USD). Australia is a major producer of gold, and the Australian dollar is sensitive to changes in gold prices. When gold prices rise, AUD/USD tends to appreciate, and when gold prices fall, AUD/USD tends to weaken. 2-Gold (XAU/USD) and USD Index (DXY): Gold prices tend to have a negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY). When the DXY strengthens, gold prices often weaken, and when the DXY weakens, gold prices tend to strengthen. This inverse relationship is because gold is priced in US dollars, and a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. 3-S&P 500 Index and USD/JPY: The USD/JPY currency pair often exhibits a positive correlation with the S&P 500 Index. When the S&P 500 Index rises, USD/JPY tends to appreciate, and when the index falls, USD/JPY tends to weaken. This correlation is because both assets are seen as risk-on indicators, meaning they tend to move in the same direction in response to changes in market sentiment. 4-Crude Oil (WTI) and CAD/JPY: Crude oil prices, particularly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, often have a positive correlation with the Canadian dollar/Japanese yen (CAD/JPY) currency pair. Canada is a major exporter of oil, and the Canadian dollar is sensitive to changes in oil prices. When oil prices rise, CAD/JPY tends to appreciate, and when oil prices fall, CAD/JPY tends to weaken.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by JoeChampion
WHAT IS THE POWER OF THREE (PO3)?Lets look at the basic model of manipulation for the purpose of accumulation and distribution within separately taken time periods the power of three. Understanding this model is a fundamental skill for working through the methodology of trading disciplines such as swing, short-term and intraday trading. ✴️ WHAT IS THE POWER OF 3? The power of three is a candlestick/bar formation stages relevant for all timeframes, especially applied within daily and weekly trading ranges, where the opening price is considered to be the beginning of the period. For intraday trading, we only need to apply the weekly and daily powers of three, but we should also pay attention to the monthly candle, as the zones of interest on the higher timeframes increase the chances of success. ✴️ WEEKLY POWER OF 3 The logic of the weekly PO3 is useful for constructing a trading bias. Bullish Bias. Expect a move below the opening price early in the week, which would be a weekly manipulation (Judos Swing). The low of the week is usually formed between Monday and Wednesday, most often on Tuesday or Wednesday. If the price moves back above the opening level after leaving it, a reversal scenario is possible. Bearish Bias. We expect a move above the opening price at the beginning of the week, which will be a weekly manipulation (Judos Swing). The high of the week is usually formed in the interval between Monday and Wednesday, most often on Tuesday or Wednesday. If the price moves back above the opening level after leaving it, a reversal scenario is possible. ✴️ DAILY POWER OF 3 The opening price level is used to determine a favorable opening zone to take a trade. Manipulation (Judas Swing). We wait for the completion of the liquidity grab before making a decision. Expansion is a price action that traders capitalize on. Distribution is an area in which we take profits.
Education
by DeGRAM
1
How to Use Price Action in Stock Sector RotationsIn the intricate world of technical analysis (TA), Price Action Correlation Models stand out as a sophisticated strategy that leverages the interconnected movements of stocks within the same industry. This approach is underpinned by the premise that stocks in the same sector often move in tandem due to shared economic, market, and sector-specific factors. By analyzing these correlations, traders can anticipate market movements and make informed decisions. This article delves into the definition of Price Action Correlation Models, explores their strengths, and provides examples of their successful application. Price Action Correlations in Sector Models At its core, a Price Action Correlation Model is an algorithmic framework that examines the price movements and relationships among stocks within a particular industry. These models focus on index stocks, which are the most highly capitalized companies in an industry, as benchmarks for the sector. By monitoring how other stocks correlate with these benchmarks, the algorithms can identify potential trading opportunities when trends align. The strategy is predicated on the assumption that stocks within the same sector are likely to exhibit similar price movements over time, influenced by overarching industry trends, economic factors, and market sentiment. The Strengths of Correlation Models Sector Focus: One of the key advantages of Price Action Correlation Models is their ability to capitalize on sectoral correlations. This focus allows traders to benefit from the diversification within a specific industry, reducing the risk associated with single-stock investments. Simple Implementation: Compared to more complex quantitative models, Price Action Correlation Models are relatively straightforward to implement. This simplicity makes them accessible to a wider range of investors, including those with limited technical expertise. Diversified Exposure: By spreading investments across multiple correlated stocks within the same sector, these models offer a layer of risk management. This diversification can mitigate the impact of adverse movements in any single stock. Swing Trading in Sector Rotation Strategy An exemplary case of Price Action Correlation Models in action is the Swing Trader Sector Rotation Strategy. This algorithmic approach capitalizes on the rotational movement of sectors within the market. By identifying sectors poised for growth and analyzing the correlations among leading stocks within those sectors, the strategy aims to enter trades aligned with sectoral trends. The use of fixed stop-loss and take-profit levels provides a disciplined exit strategy, mitigating potential losses and locking in gains. This strategy exemplifies the practical application of Price Action Correlation Models, demonstrating their potential to yield positive returns through a focused, sector-based approach. However, as with any investment strategy, success is contingent on a range of factors, including market conditions, investor discipline, and the ability to adapt to changing dynamics. The algorithm of the robot consists of two parts: Analysis of the price action correlation between the movement direction of main stocks and other stocks included in the same sector. This analysis of correlated stocks is a popular method used by hedge funds to create trading strategies. Our team of quants conducted multi-level backtests on a large amount of historical data to identify correlation relationships between the sector leaders and other stocks included in it. Creation of an optimal diversification model based on a quantitative analysis of the efficiency of various combinations of industries. The robot uses 22 sub-industries from different sectors such as Industrials, Energy, Consumer Services, Real Estate, and Finance. This approach ensures that our users are not overly dependent on market cycles or external events that could negatively affect the dynamics in a particular industry. The average duration of a trade is only 2 days, allowing our users to effectively use capital and avoid getting stuck in a single position for an extended period. The maximum number of open trades is 86, which ensures good diversification to reduce the impact of a single trade on overall profitability. After entering the trade, the AI Robot places a fixed order "Take profit" at the level of 4% of the position opening price. To exit the trade, the robot uses a fixed stop loss of 4% of the position opening price, which helps our users avoid large drawdowns. The robot's trading results are shown without using margin. For complete trading statistics and equity charts, users can click on the "show more" button on the robot page. In the "Open Trades" tab, users can see live how the AI Robot selects equities, enters, and exits in paper trades. In the "Closed Trades" tab, users can review all previous trades made by the AI Robot. In the dynamic realm of stock trading, Tickeron Inc. emerges as a pioneering force in AI-driven trading solutions, marking a notable advancement. Dr. Sergey Savastiouk, CEO and Founder of Tickeron, introduces their newest feature aimed at streamlining quantitative stock analysis. Positioned as a leader in algorithmic AI trading, Tickeron serves a diverse clientele, including individual investors and developers of exclusive neural networks.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by tickeron
Leveraging Pivot Points for Intraday Trading StrategiesIntroduction to Pivot Points: A pivot point serves as a pivotal indicator in technical analysis, aiding in discerning market trends across various time frames. Essentially, it's an average of the intraday high, low, and closing prices from the previous trading day. Traders interpret trading above the pivot point as indicative of bullish sentiment and below as bearish. Key Features: Pivot points form the foundation of this indicator, from which support and resistance levels are projected. These levels offer insights into potential price reversals or continuations. It's widely utilized in equities, commodities, and forex markets to identify trend shifts and reversals. Traders leverage pivot points to determine entry and exit levels, aiding in strategic decision- making for intraday trades. Formulas for Calculation: The formulas for pivot points involve simple calculations based on the previous day's high, low, and close prices. These calculations yield pivotal support and resistance levels crucial for trade planning. The Formulas for Pivot Points: P= High+Low+Close / 3 ​ R1=(P×2)−Low R2=P+(High−Low) S1=(P×2)−High S2=P−(High−Low) where: P=Pivot point R1=Resistance 1 R2=Resistance 2 S1=Support 1 S2=Support 2 ​ Calculation Method: Pivot points can be manually calculated using the prior day's data, which includes the high, low, and close prices. These levels are essential for traders, especially for intraday strategies. High indicates the highest price from the prior trading day, Low indicates the lowest price from the prior trading day, and Close indicates the closing price from the prior trading day. Interpreting Pivot Points: Pivot points provide traders with static support and resistance levels throughout the trading day. This enables traders to pre-plan their trades based on potential price movements. Traders utilize pivot points in conjunction with other indicators to enhance their trading strategies, aiming for more accurate predictions and better risk management. Comparison with Fibonacci Retracements: Pivot points and Fibonacci retracements share the common goal of identifying support and resistance levels. However, pivot points rely on fixed numbers derived from the previous day's prices, while Fibonacci retracements are based on percentage levels drawn between significant price points. Limitations and Considerations: While pivot points offer valuable insights, they are not foolproof indicators and may not work for all traders. It's crucial to integrate them within a comprehensive trading plan and acknowledge their limitations. Price movements may not always adhere strictly to pivot point levels, requiring traders to exercise caution and employ additional analysis techniques. Conclusion: Pivot points remain a fundamental tool in the arsenal of intraday traders, aiding in trend identification and trade planning. By understanding their calculations, interpreting their implications, and integrating them with other indicators, traders can harness the power of pivot points to make informed trading decisions. Disclaimer: This trading idea is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are encouraged to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when implementing any trading strategies.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by khushaljain023
Bitcoin Broke New High – The Real Reasons Behind ItThe relationship between inflation and Bitcoin - they moves in tandem together, in the same direction. We saw Bitcoin has broken above its 2021 high, and it is likely to continue this trend. Many attribute the reason behind this rally to the approval of Bitcoin ETF by SEC in January of this year. While this approval serves an incentive, the core reason for this rally is the resilience of US inflation, meaning the inflation is still pretty stubborn, not coming down to the 2% target. Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options Ticker: MBT Minimum fluctuation: $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
3
Why bad inflation data sent stocks up and weakend the DollarHi! Today CPI (inflation data) was published. The expectation was 3.1%, the real reading was 3.2%. Normally, if inflation rises, the dollar gets stronger and stocks weaken. But why is that so? To control inflation, central banks lift the interest rate. This causes people to bring their money to the bank to get interest revenue. Big players also do this. This decreases inflation (less money around) and weakens stocks. People rather get save money from interest rates then risk their money on the stock market. Todays inflation was higher then expected, why did the Dollar drop and stocks move up? well, the FED already talked about lowering the rates soon. Investors prepare for less interest so they withdraw their money from dollar assets to other currencies (dollar sinks) and invest their money in stocks (stock rise). The inflation was just 0.1% higher then expected. this was simply not enough to prevent soon rate cuts. If inflation would've been 1% higher then expected, FED most likely won't cut rates.
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by FighterFan
I'm done with this!We’ve all had this moment. Where we stare at our screens, scratching our heads, wondering a bunch of stuff. Why is this so slow? Why can’t I press the button Where am I going wrong? We’ve chased trends, hesitated when we should have acted, and let our emotions play puppeteer with our portfolios. Today is the turning point. For you! It’s time to say… “I’m done!” This read could be what you need to win this year. #1: I’M DONE: Making Excuses Enough is enough! No excuses this time. Open your trading account Deposit more money Adopt strong trading strategies Have the right calculators and journals to follow Keep at it. No more blaming external factors; it’s time to own your trading career and learn from them. #2: I’M DONE: Feeling Emotional Trading with emotions is like juggling dynamite. Sooner or later, something’s going to explode. Whether you have been on this rollercoaster of euphoria and despair for far too long. If you celebrate winners or get angry over losers – The emotions will only enhance and will develop into emotional turmoil. It’s time you take a more rational approach. Risk less – If the amount is too emotional to handle. No more “I know better trades” than my trading strategy. No more fear, greed and definitely NO MORE EGO! It’s time to trade with a clear head and a steady hand. #3: I’M DONE: Rushing the Process Patience is not just a virtue; it’s a survival skill. Have you been guilty rushing into trades without proper research, hoping for quick wins. Have you been irritated how slow the progress is to build an account. Have you felt the need to quit during drawdowns. Guess what? No body fails with trading. They quit. The market doesn’t care about your impatience. From now on, adopt the mantra: “Slow and steady wins the trading race.” #4: I’M DONE: Doubting Myself Self-doubt is the silent assassin of trading success. It creeps into your mind, sows seeds of uncertainty. Before you know it, you’re second-guessing every move. Stop! Remember, you are the BOSS of your trading account, strategy and results. So act like a boss. Get rid of self-doubt and embrace more confidence. You have got the skills, the knowledge, and the experience. It’s time to trust yourself and let your trades reflect that trust. #5: I’M DONE: Missing Great Opportunities Regret is a bitter pill to swallow. Especially when it comes to missed trading opportunities. I’m sure you’ve kicked yourself one too many times for hesitating when you should have pounced. I still kick myself when I miss trades! We are human. We can’t see everything all the time. But remember this. The next trade is always on its way. You don’t need to feel FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). Always try improve on spotting and taking advantage of better trading opportunities. And know that taking trades (no matter how good they look) are always difficult. But they need to be taken. They need to be followed. From now on, be bold, seize the moment, and make the most of every chance the market throws your way. FINAL WORDS: It’s all on you! Every financial decision you make, is your responsibility. So remember to say out loud what we are DONE THIS YEAR. #1: I’M DONE: Making Excuses #2: I’M DONE: Feeling Emotional #3: I’M DONE: Rushing the Process #4: I’M DONE: Doubting Myself #5: I’M DONE: Missing Great Opportunities
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
Top 3 Intraday Trading StrategiesTo get success in intraday trading, requires dedication, hard work, patience, quick wit, and immense knowledge. Successful day trading involves 10% execution and 90% patience. To gain expertise in day trading and honing trading skills, it takes a fair amount of time. There are a number of Best Intraday trading strategies available for trading, but the success or failure of the strategy completely depends on the market. Maybe one strategy works in today’s market condition but may not work according to the next day’s market condition. Not only, does the movement of the market, but the intraday trading strategy also depends on the trading styles of the trader. It also varies at different times of the day, depending upon how the market is behaving. Here, in this post, you will find Effective Day Trading Strategies, which you can use for intraday trading. Intraday Trading Strategy : 1. News Based : News-based trading is the most traditional form of day trading. This type of trader doesn’t focus on the stock price and volume charts, they wait for information that will drive the prices. The information may come in the form of a company announcement about earnings or new products; a general economic announcement about interest rates or unemployment; or just a lot of rumors about what may or may not be happening in a given industry. Traders who do good with news-based trading , usually have some understanding and knowledge of the markets. These types of traders are not expert analysts or fundamental researchers, but they have enough knowledge about what kind of news would be in-favor or what would be taken poorly by marketers. They also pay attention to a few different news sources and also whenever they find the right opportunity, they place the order at the right time. The downside of news trading is that there may be few and far good events; more often, the hype is already built into the price by the time you watch it. Many news traders turn to the scalp while they wait for something to create a little excitement. Before you start news-based day trading, one thing you should keep in mind is that, this type of trading strategy is very risky as compared to other strategies. It also gives high returns on investment within a day. 2. Gap + B.B. (S20,2): This strategy is useful when the stock/ Index opens Gap Up or Gap Down. After the gap, the stock shows a potential reversal sign, which can observe by the place of a candlestick or by a heavy volume event. You can fade the action and go in the opposite direction of the gap with a profit target at the start of the gap. Rules: Entry between 9:30 to 10:00. Exit at stop-loss or at 3:25. Bollinger band strategy is 20,2 30- minute time frame is required. Big Profits and Small losses. No need to trade every day. Helps to stay away from the Sideway market. Example for Buy Trade: In this strategy, the stock should be open with Gap up or Gap down. The First 30-minute candle should be untouched from the lower band. As you can see in the above image, the first candle opens with a gap down and it is below the lower band. The high of 1st candle is also untouched by the lower band. Go for buy trade when the high of 1st 30-minute candle is a break. Stop-loss = low of the 1st candle. Example for Sell Trade: The stock opens with a gap up and the 1st candle’s low is not touched with the upper Bollinger band. As the low of the first candle is broken, enter in to sell trade. Put the stop loss at the high of the first candle. Note: This strategy gives best result for Nifty and Bank Nifty. 3. Morning ORB: The early morning range breakouts are also known as opening range breakouts. It is like bread-butter for many trades. The trading opening range takes skill and practice until you can turn a profit. The early morning range breakout help traders to take advantage of the violent action from the flurry of buying and selling orders when the market opens. Trading Range The first 20 to 30-minute trading range is suitable for an opening range breakout. While you start trading practice using this strategy, it is recommended to start with a very little amount of capital. The stock you select for the trade should be within a range, which is smaller than the average daily range of the stock. The upper and lower boundaries of the range can be identified by the high and low of the first 30 or 60 minutes. Early Morning Range Breakout and Volume The idea for go short on a break below or going long on a break above resistance is not as easy as you think. First, you need to understand the relationship between volume and price. Volume and Price must be in harmony. When you short or long a stock, which has happed down or gapped up it must open with heavy volume and then retrace on lighter volume (indicating a lack of buying). Which confirms that sellers/buyers are in control. Volume Is very important for every type of breakout which confirms the breakout before entry. If the stock price breaks the morning Support/resistance level with low volume, there is a high chance of a false breakout. The image below explained that high volume during a breakout is likely to push price through key resistance. In this 15- minute chart, you see that after a break of early morning resistance with high volume, the price starts increasing. Volume is very tricky so you need to be able to predict the support/resistance levels accurately in order to find out good volume breakouts and set proper profit targets. Disclaimer: The Intraday Trading Strategies discussed in this post is for education purpose only. We are not responsible for any Profit or Loss you made using these strategies. We hope that you like our blog post on Intraday Trading Strategies.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by khushaljain023
WHAT ARE FRACTALS IN FOREX TRADING?👋 Hello forex traders! It is unlikely that you will find a single beginner in the Forex market who would not know what a fractal is. And even outside the market, many people have heard about this concept. Fractals have been known for almost a century, are well studied and have numerous applications in life. Fractals have been used on financial markets for quite a long time - even classic trading strategies contain references to them. For example, the famous trading strategy of Bill Williams Profitunity uses fractals as one of the elements of the system. To begin studying this method of analysis, we need to define what a Fractal is. Here is the most complete and understandable definition: "A fractal is a set that has the property of self-similarity. An object that exactly or approximately coincides with a part of itself, i.e. the whole has the same shape as it or more parts. In our familiar markets, this concept is slightly modified, but the concept remains the same." Transferring this definition to price charts, we can get approximately the following: "A fractal is a constantly repeating pattern that is not included in any list of common patterns. In other words, if you watch the chart of a certain instrument for a very long time, you will start to notice the fact that its movements in a certain period of time are constantly repeating. This pattern was discovered by the well-known Bill Williams. This trader claimed that the whole market is chaotic and only sometimes it changes into a stable and bright trend." Why Fractal Analysis Is Necessary 📊 In fact, the trader himself determines the necessity of this kind of analysis. If you have a perfectly working and profitable strategy, then probably this post is not for you, but if you have some problems with finding a profitable trading strategy, then you can read to the end so that this post will give you an idea. I have not been able to find any clear information as to why it has been noticed only now, but I personally believe that it is due to the fact that more and more traders started to spend a long time at the monitor and notice some patterns and features of each currency pair. Translating all of the above into simple language, fractal analysis is needed to find the biggest patterns in the market and apply on. “Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern”. How To Apply In Trading 📈📉 Now that we have sufficiently understood the general concepts of Fractal, it is time to understand how this technique is applied in the financial markets and learn how to trade using it. Let's start with the fact that fractal structures were originally found with the help of machine running of charts and finding certain patterns. That is why it may be difficult to find fractals with your own eye. But we are glad that we live in the 21st century and all developed platforms have such indicators for a long time. Immediately after applying this indicator, the chart will look like this: Fractal Start A fractal start is a situation in which after a fractal in one direction, a fractal in the opposite direction is formed. Fractal Signal After the fractal start, on its reverse side, the appearance of the fractal signal takes place Fractal Stop The fractal stop is located behind the farthest of the two extreme fractals. Using this technique allows you to minimize the number of stop-losses. The Practical Use Of Fractals 💡 1. Method of breakouts, often indicating the continuation of the existing trend. To enter a trade, a pending stop order is set at the breakout point of the nearest fractal to the price. 2. It is not always possible to determine how accurately these levels were built. Bill Williams' fractals are a tool to effectively identify significant support and resistance levels. 3. Fractals can also be used as a useful method of identifying reference points when plotting trend lines. These anchor points can serve as important indicators of market behavior. 4. Fractals can help traders identify the prevailing trend in the market. Identifying a trend is a simple process if you take into account the definition of an uptrend as a sequence of increasing local highs and lows, while a downtrend is characterized by a series of decreasing extremes. 5. If the price does not overcome the previous fractal, it may indicate the emergence of a sideways movement. To confirm this signal, it is necessary to wait for the formation of the opposite fractal. Advantages And Disadvantages Of Fractal Analysis ↕️ Like other techniques, fractal analysis has both disadvantages and advantages. For its effective use it is necessary to be able to analyze several timeframes and synthesize the overall picture. Market entry should be determined by the trend on the higher timeframe, because the Bill Williams system is trending. In conclusion, the fractals provide numerous potential entry points on the chart, catering to different preferences and often appearing quite reliable. However, it is essential to recognize that this method of analysis is not simple or unambiguous. Consequently, it is not recommended for beginner traders to use it as the sole factor in decision-making. The Fractal indicator's effectiveness is dependent on its use in conjunction with other indicators on time intervals from an hour and above. Strategies that incorporate the Fractals indicator must analyze several timeframes. Despite these considerations, the indicator should not be dismissed, as it can provide valuable support when used in combined strategies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
11
Learn to Take Losses. Trading Psychology Basics Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss a typical psychological mistake that a lot of traders frequently make, facing a losing streak. 🤑 Analyzing different charts, we may spot a decent trading setup. Being 100% sure in our predictions, we open a trading position. After some time, we are stopped out. Instead of admitting that we were wrong, we are looking for a reason why it is not our fault: market manipulation, stop hunting, news. Instead of reevaluation of our analysis, we start forcing our previous predictions. 🧠 We open a position again, being sure that it is a perfect moment for us to recover the loss. And we are wrong one more time. What the hell is going on? Who to blame? Of course, that is not us. These ugly hedge fund managers again sunk our trade. 😢 But we stay strong, we have a big trading account, so we decide to show this schmo who is a real pro here. Consistency! That is the secret of success in trading. So we open the third position again. And... we screwed. 🤬 Eureka! The market reversed! It's time to open the position in the opposite direction. The trend has changed, and it's time to get on board and recover this losing streak. We open a trade, however, it's too late already: while we were forcing our previous predictions a new impulse has already gone exhausted. We s*ck... That is a typical situation every struggling trader faced. The psychological barrier to take the loss and admit the mistake makes many people leave this game. The only way to proceed is to learn to take losses. Take losses and reevaluate your analysis. "It's ok to be wrong. It's unforgivable to stay wrong!"
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
5 Risk Management Strategies for Effective Forex Trading5 Risk Management Strategies for Effective Forex Trading . . Forex trading presents lucrative opportunities for investors, but it also carries inherent risks. Without proper risk management strategies, traders can expose themselves to significant losses. Understanding and implementing effective risk management techniques are essential for long-term success in the forex market. Here are five proven strategies to minimize losses and protect your capital while trading forex. . _____________________________________ Key Takeaways: 1. **Stop-Loss Orders**: Implementing stop-loss orders based on thorough market analysis helps traders limit potential losses and maintain discipline during volatile periods. 2. **Position Sizing**: Practicing consistent position sizing ensures that traders allocate a small percentage of their total capital to each trade, enabling risk diversification and capital preservation. 3. **Risk-to-Reward Ratios**: Evaluating risk-to-reward ratios before entering trades enables traders to assess potential profitability against the level of risk, promoting structured decision-making and enhancing overall profitability. 4. **Diversification**: Diversifying portfolios across multiple currency pairs and asset classes reduces the impact of adverse market movements and enhances portfolio stability, improving risk-adjusted returns. 5. **Staying Informed and Adaptive**: Remaining informed about market developments and adapting strategies accordingly is crucial for effective risk management. Continuous assessment and adjustment of trading positions help mitigate losses and capitalize on profitable opportunities in the dynamic forex market landscape. . . In conclusion, mastering these risk management strategies is essential for long-term success in forex trading, allowing traders to mitigate risks, preserve capital, and achieve consistent returns amid market fluctuations. . . _____________________________________ 1. Set Stop-Loss Orders: A stop-loss order is a fundamental risk management tool that helps traders limit potential losses on a trade. By setting a predetermined price level at which to automatically exit a trade, traders can mitigate the impact of adverse market movements. It's crucial to set stop-loss orders based on careful analysis of market conditions, support and resistance levels, and individual risk tolerance. Implementing stop-loss orders ensures disciplined risk management and protects traders from emotional decision-making during volatile market periods. . _____________________________________ 2. Practice Position Sizing: Position sizing is the process of determining the appropriate amount of capital to risk on each trade based on the size of your trading account and risk tolerance. By allocating a small percentage of your total capital to each trade, traders can diversify their risk exposure and safeguard against significant losses from individual trades. Implementing a consistent position sizing strategy helps maintain trading discipline and preserves capital for future opportunities. Traders should carefully consider their risk-reward ratios and adjust position sizes accordingly to align with their trading objectives. . _____________________________________ 3. Use Risk-to-Reward Ratios: Risk-to-reward ratios are essential metrics that help traders assess the potential profitability of a trade relative to the amount of capital at risk. By establishing clear risk-to-reward parameters before entering a trade, traders can evaluate whether the potential reward justifies the level of risk undertaken. A favorable risk-to-reward ratio ensures that potential profits outweigh potential losses, providing a structured approach to trade selection and decision-making. Incorporating risk-to-reward ratios into your trading strategy promotes disciplined risk management and enhances the overall profitability of your forex trading endeavors. . _____________________________________ 4. Diversify Your Portfolio: Diversification is a fundamental principle of risk management that involves spreading your investment across multiple currency pairs and asset classes. By diversifying your portfolio, traders can reduce the impact of adverse market movements on their overall capital. Investing in a variety of currency pairs with low correlation coefficients helps mitigate concentration risk and enhances portfolio stability. Additionally, diversification allows traders to capitalize on different market trends and opportunities, thereby improving the risk-adjusted returns of their forex trading activities. . _____________________________________ 5. Stay Informed and Adapt: The forex market is dynamic and constantly evolving, influenced by a myriad of economic, geopolitical, and fundamental factors. To effectively manage risk, traders must stay informed about market developments, monitor key indicators, and adapt their strategies accordingly. Maintaining a proactive approach to risk management involves continuously assessing market conditions, adjusting stop-loss levels, and reevaluating trading positions based on emerging trends and signals. By remaining flexible and responsive to changing market dynamics, traders can mitigate potential losses and capitalize on profitable opportunities in the forex market. . _____________________________________ Conclusion: Successful forex trading requires a comprehensive understanding of risk management principles and the implementation of effective strategies to minimize losses. By incorporating stop-loss orders, practicing position sizing, using risk-to-reward ratios, diversifying portfolios, and staying informed, traders can mitigate risk exposure and enhance their long-term profitability in the forex market. Embracing disciplined risk management practices is essential for preserving capital, achieving consistent returns, and navigating the complexities of the forex trading landscape. . _____________________________________ By Papa Finance Talk 09/03/2024
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Papa_Trader
Finding MACD Crossovers On TradingViews Screener 2.0The MACD is one of the most often used indicators by traders of all levels due to its ability to communicate a wide variety of signals such as momentum, value, change of direction etc. Here is how to use TradingViews new 2.0 Screener to easily spot and get alerts for stocks that meet these conditions. If I was to make this video again, what I would do is instead of showing stocks that have JUST crossed today. I would show stocks that have crossed but are still below the zero line - so they may have had a couple of days of momentum to show the strength of the change in direction. You can of course take this same approach with pretty much any common indicator and settings you wish to apply. Hope its useful.
NASDAQ:AFRMEducation
by zAngus
4
HOW TO $1k to $12.4mil in 83 trades on BTCUSD1D BITFINEX w/ NSV4Through an analysis of 83 trades, NSV4 ('Ninja Signals V4' by BitcoinNinjas.org) has demonstrated its ability to turn a modest $1,000 investment into an impressive $12.4 million, showcasing remarkable potential. In this particular configuration, NSV4 massively outperformed almost any other strategy including the traditional 'buy and hold' in the backtesting of this example. This chart specifically provides insights and a deeper understanding of the effectiveness and potential of this indicator. It is one of the single best charts ever backtested for Ninja Signals. We have spent years receiving feedback from users and cultivating our script while backtesting different charts and timeframes to achieve this level of success. The reliability and continual profit over time for 10+ years is astounding in this particular case! This configuration is unique to this exchange, although is likely to achieve similar results on other exchanges (trading the same pair and the same time interval), perhaps needing only a few minor tweaks. Let us dissect NSV4's performance and discover the principles that have made it a game-changer. How is it possible to turn 1k into 12.4m in 83 trades? First of all, you can see that the first trade was in 2013, so these settings are backtested for over 10 years. This didn't happen over night. Also, this configuration adds the profit of the previous trade to the next trade. On a bot, this would equate to using the entire balance of the account with each trade, and continually increasing the trade amount as profit accrues. Here, we are 'compounding the interest' and using 100% of the trade balance for each trade. This is referred to as "Compounding". We always make sure that a configuration is highly profitable with compounding OFF before we turn it on. In this case, the results are magical. When we are backtesting for the best configurations, there are a few things to keep in mind, these principles are true for any Alerts generating indicator: 1) Has it traded recently, within the last few months? (Yes) 2) Has it been profitable each year if only traded for that year? (Yes) 3) Has it broke even or performed well in a bear market? (Yes) As you can see, this configuration has traded recently, It also meets all of the other criteria. Therefore, this would suffice as a tradeable config in our eyes. In short, why is this pack so successful? 1) Compounding. 2) Long trading history (10yr+). 3) Low SL (Stop Loss) of 6 prevents losing large amounts and keeps trades tight. 4) The results without compounding are stellar to begin with, good start, good finish. 5) Years of backtesting experience from our team culminates in epic configurations. The 1D chart equates to a longer period of time between trades than most people are used to, which results in approx 1 trade per 1-2 months. Most people are looking for quick scalping trades but as you can see here, NSV4 has steadily outperformed almost any strategy using complex combinations of basic trading principles and trading for a long period of time. The tortoise wins the race, in this case. We generally like to use NSV4 between 60m and 1D, anywhere in between. Sometime obscure timeframes such as 177m or 431min seem to do well. It takes time backtesting to find the best results, as with any script. Do you know of any other Alerts generating indicators on TradingView that have achieved this level of success? I haven't found any yet! I am anxious to try these settings and to keep testing! -spiftheninja PROFIT WHILE YOU SLEEP
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Bitcoin_Ninjas
2
HOW-TO use the Fundamental Strength Indicator? (full guide)Below is the complete instruction on how to use the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Part 1: The Fundamental Strength of the Company To understand what it is for, let's imagine that you manage a long-distance running team, and you need to recruit a team of excellent athletes. However, you don’t even know the names of these athletes or their contract amounts. You only have information about their health and athletic performance: hemoglobin and iron content in the blood, maximal oxygen consumption, steps-per-minute rate, speed, age, etc. Each player has their own large table with different parameters. And you have, let’s say, a thousand tables like that. If you spend 3 minutes studying one table, it will take you 50 hours to analyze all the tables, which is just over 2 days of continuous work. And how long would it take to compare each athlete with the rest? Approximately 2 years of continuous work. This is obviously no good, that is why you take a computer, enter all the data from the tables and start thinking about how you can reduce the time to compare one athlete with another. As a result of your brainstorming, you come to the following conclusions: — Each parameter has its range of values, which can give you an idea of whether an athlete is suitable or not suitable for a marathon. — The parameter may have its dynamics: it may increase from month to month, stay the same, or decrease. — Each parameter can be assigned a score. For example, the step-per-minute rate can be: — 175 and above (+1 point) — 165–174 (0 points) — 164 and below (-1 point) And you do that with each parameter. What are these points for? To convert indicators that use different units into one measurement system. Thanks to this method, you can now compare apples to oranges. Then, you sum up all the points per month and get one single number — let's call it athletic strength. You like your thought process, and you apply this algorithm to every athlete’s table. Now, instead of dozens of parameters per month, you have one number (athletic strength) for each athlete. It looks like your task has been dramatically simplified. Next, to study the dynamics of athletic strength from month to month, you “ask” your computer to create a plot for each of the athletes. This chart shows that Athlete #1's athletic strength has fluctuated chaotically in the first three quarters of 2022, possibly due to the lack of regular training. But then you observe a positive trend, where athletic strength has grown from month to month. It seems like the athlete has taken up training. Then, to compare one athlete with another, you “ask” your computer to add the average value of athletic strength over the past six months (average pre-competition training period) to the existing plot. Now, you can use the most average recent value as a weighted score of athletic strength and compare athletes with each other based on this value. Thanks to this solution, you accelerate the analysis process by a magnitude: one athlete – one number. It appears that you can then simply sort the table by the highest athletic strength weighted score and consider the best athletes. However, not wanting to sort the table every time the data is updated or when you get new athletes, you make a better decision. The logic behind the points system implies that there is a maximum and a minimum possible number of points that one athlete can get. This allows you to create ranges of scores for athletes with excellent, mediocre, and poor training. For example, let’s say the maximum is 15 and the minimum is -15. Athletes with a score of 8 to 15 will be considered as strong, 1 to 7 – mediocre, and 0 to -15 – weak. That’s it! Now, thanks to this gradation, you can simply check which range the weighted athletic strength falls within, and decide whether each athlete will be admitted to the team. I believe that now your primary selection will take no more than one working day (including a lunch break). Now let's mentally replace athletes with public companies. Instead of data on health and athletic performance, we will have data from the companies’ financial statements and financial ratios. Applying a similar algorithm, we will get the fundamental strength of the company instead of athletic strength. I think it's time to show the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Let's launch! What do we see? — First, it is a Histogram with bars of three colors: green, orange, and red. The width of the histogram depends on the depth of data from the company statements. The more historical data, the wider the histogram over time. The green color of the bars means that the company has been showing excellent financial results by the sum of the factors in that period. According to my terminology, the company has a “strong foundation” during this period. Green corresponds to values between 8 and 15 (where 15 is the maximum possible positive value on the sum of the factors). The orange color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors during this period the company demonstrated mediocre financial results, i.e., it has a “mediocre foundation” . Orange color corresponds to values from 1 to 7. The red color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors in this period of time, the company demonstrated weak financial results, i.e., it has a “weak foundation” . The red color corresponds to values from -15 to 0 (where -15 is the maximum possible negative value on the sum of factors). — Second, this is the Blue Line , which is the moving average of the Histogram bars over the last year (*). Averaging over the year is necessary to obtain a weighted estimate that is not subject to medium-term fluctuations. It is by the last value of the blue line that the actual Fundamental Strength of the company is determined. (*) The last year means the last 252 trading days, including the current trading day. — Third, these are operating, investing, and financing Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These flows look like thick green, orange, and red lines, respectively. — Fourth, this is the Table on the left, which shows the latest actual value of the Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows. Indicator settings: In the indicator settings, I can disable the visibility of the Histogram, Blue Line, Cash Flows (each separately), and Table. It helps to study each of the parameters separately. It is also possible to change the color, transparency, and thickness of lines. The movie Moneyball was released in 2011, where Brad Pitt plays the role of Billy Bean, the sports manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. With a small budget, he managed to assemble a high-scoring team based on the analysis of player performance. As a result, this approach was applied by other teams in the league, and Billy Bean received massive recognition from the professional community. Part 2: Benchmark Business Model One day, when I had already grasped the concept of the Fundamental Strength of a company, I was returning home from vacation. I was in a taxi and the driver was listening to an audiobook. As the drive took longer than an hour, I had nothing to do but listen to the story. I liked the content. It was a fictional novel with a plot centered around the main character named Alex Rogo. He is a manager of one of the three enterprises of the UniCo corporation. Even though Alex spends all his time and energy on work, things are not going very well for the company: over the past six months, the company has only had losses. This leaves Alex's executives no choice but to give him an ultimatum: if he can’t radically improve the situation in three months, the enterprise will be shut down, and he will be left without a job. At the same time, Alex's wife is tired of her husband’s absence in her personal life, so she decides to leave him. Anyway, the story's beginning turned out to be very dramatic, and I wondered how Alex would cope with all this. Luckily, in this stressful time, he meets his former physics teacher Jonah, who now consults companies regarding efficient production. Alex tells his old acquaintance about what’s going on and how he managed to increase labor productivity at the enterprise after purchasing new robots. However, the losses continue to hang over his head like the sword of Damocles. After listening to Alex's story, Jonah wisely suggests that the problem with his enterprise lies in the management is concerned about anything but the main goal of their business, which is creating money or profit. Jonah explains to Alex that all management ideas related to expanding the sales market, using new technologies, or improving product quality can lead the company to a disaster if fundamental things are not considered. In his opinion, management should only focus on three indicators: — Throughput , which is the rate at which a company makes money through sales. — Inventory , which is all the money invested by the company in assets: premises, equipment, patents, raw materials, etc.: that is, in something that can then be sold. — Operational expenses , which are all the money a company spends turning investments into cash, or something that can’t be sold, such as the salary of employees, the cost of rent, payment for delivery services, etc. Thus, the management’s job is to make improvements that will ultimately lead to an increase in Throughput and a decrease in Inventory and Operational expenses. For example, Alex’s purchase of robots to increase the number of products produced has led to an increase in production. However, suppose you look at it through the prism proposed by Jonah. In that case, we actually have the following picture: Inventory has increased, Operational expenses have not decreased (no one has been fired), and the robots can’t contribute to sales growth in any way (the Throughput is not increasing). As a result, this was not an improvement, but a deterioration. The accumulation of such bad decisions eventually leads to the unprofitability of the company. Conversely, continuous improvements that will increase the Throughput and reduce Inventory and Operational expenses will inevitably lead to achieving the main goal – making money. After I got home, I tried to find this book on the Internet. It turned out that it was written by physicist and philosopher Eliyahu M. Goldratt back in 1984. The novel is called The Goal . That’s when I realized that if the company's management adheres to the approach described by Goldratt, then after a while, we will most likely see a fundamentally strong company. And the Fundamental Strength Indicator clearly shows how much the management has succeeded along this path. For example, according to Goldratt, an increase in Throughput should lead to an increase in Earnings per share (EPS) and Total revenue . The reduction in Inventory may be linked with a decrease in Inventory to revenue ratio . Optimization of Operational expenses will definitely reduce the Operating expense ratio . All these parameters are considered when calculating the Fundamental Strength of the company. So, let's move on to the methodology for calculating the Fundamental Strength Indicator. The main idea that inspired me to create this indicator is: "Even if you buy just 1 share of a company, treat it like buying the whole business" . Guided by this approach, you can imagine what kind of business an investor is interested in owning and simultaneously determine the input parameters for calculating the indicator. For me, a benchmark business is: — A business that operates efficiently without diminishing the return on shareholders' investment. To assess the efficiency and profitability of a business, I use the following financial ratios(*): Diluted EPS and Return on Equity (ROE). The first two parameters for calculating the indicator are there. — A business that scales sales and optimizes its costs. From this perspective, the following financial ratios are suitable: Gross margin, Operating expense ratio, and Total revenue. Plus three other metrics. — A business that turns goods/services into cash quickly and does not fall behind on payments to suppliers. The following financial ratios will fit here: Days payable, Days sales outstanding, and Inventory to revenue ratio. These are three more metrics. — A business that does not resort to significant accounts payable and shows financial strength. Here I use the following financial ratios: Current ratio, Interest coverage, and Debt to revenue ratio. These are the last three parameters. (*) If you are keen to learn more about these financial ratios, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Financial ratios: digesting them together What can financial ratios tell us? Next, each of the parameters is assigned a certain number of points based on its last value or the position of that value relative to the annual maximum and minimum. For example, if the Current ratio: — greater than or equal to 2 (+1 point); — less than or equal to 1 (-1 point); — more than 1 but less than 2 (0 points). Or for example, if Diluted EPS: — near or above the annual high (+2 points); — near the annual minimum and below (-2 points); — between the annual maximum and minimum (0 points). And so on with each of the parameters. As a result, the maximum number of points a company can score is 15 points. The minimum number of points a company can score is -15 points. These levels are marked with horizontal dotted lines: the green line is for the maximum value, and the red line is for the minimum. I track the number of points for each day of a company's life on a three-color Histogram. The resulting average value for the last year is on the Blue Line. For me, it is the last value of the Blue Line that determines: this is the actual Fundamental Strength of the company. As an additional filter, for example, when comparing two companies where all other conditions are equal: I use the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These are the thick green, orange, and red lines over the Histogram. Examples: Below, I will evaluate various companies using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Tesla, Inc. The indicator shows that since 2020, Tesla Inc. has been steadily increasing its Fundamental Strength (from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 12.79 in Q1 2023). This is noticeable both by the color change of the Histogram from orange to green and by the rising Blue Line. If you look in detail at what has been happening with the financials during this time, it's clear what meaningful work the company has done. Revenues have almost quadrupled. Earnings per share have increased 134 times. At the same time, Total debt to revenue fell almost 10 times. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. The company, formed in 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, has failed to deliver outstanding financial results, causing its Fundamental Strength to fall from 4.63 in Q1 2018 to -0.53 in Q1 2023. During this period, the decline in diluted earnings per share was accompanied by higher debt and deteriorating liquidity. Costco Wholesale Corporation Wholesaler Costco has been surprisingly stable in its financial performance and with steady growth in both earnings and revenue. This is the reason the Histogram bars are exceptionally green throughout the calculation of the indicator. The Fundamental Strength has not changed in three years and is high at 11 points. Part 3: Company Cash Flow Dynamics The other day I came across an interesting article about the work of the Swiss company Glencore International AG in the 1990s. This company specializes in trading raw materials, and at that time it was actively trading with the countries that had left the USSR. None of those countries had foreign currency, and trust in local currencies had not yet appeared, so it was necessary to exchange commodities for commodities like in the Middle Ages. For example, to sell copper in Kazakhstan, a Swiss company bought raw sugar in Brazil, then took it to Ukraine for refining, then the refined sugar was exchanged for Siberian oil in Russia, then the oil was exchanged for copper ore in Mongolia, which was then sent to a plant in Kazakhstan to create copper suitable for sale on the world market. As we can see, money was used here only at the moment of purchase of raw sugar and sale of copper, the rest of the chain of transactions was an exchange of goods for goods. It turns out the following scheme: Money - Raw sugar - Refined sugar - Oil - Copper ore - Copper - Money' Of course, all of this made sense when Money' (with a stroke) equaled big money. Otherwise, the cost of preparing and executing such a complex transaction simply wouldn't have paid off. This example once again convinced me how significant a role money plays in any company's operations. Can you imagine the chaos that a business can become without money and having to make up similar supply chains? Money simplifies and accelerates all processes in a company, so competent management of these flows is the basis of an effective business. If you compare a company to a living organism, Cash Flow(*) is its circulatory system. It is thanks to this system that the company is supplied with everything it needs to produce goods or services. (*) If you are keen to learn more about Cash Flows, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Cash flow statement or Three great rivers Cash flow vibrations Considering that cash flows play a fundamental role in the activity of any company, it is reasonable to assume that their analysis will give us the necessary information to decide. For this reason, an additional parameter was added to the Fundamental Strength Indicator : the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income(*). (*) Since the value of income can be negative, the Diluted net income module is taken, that is, without the "minus" sign. Why do I use income as a unit of measure of Cash Flows? Because it is a good way to make the scale of indicator values the same for companies from different countries, with different currencies. It also allows you to use a single value scale for both Cash Flows and Fundamental Strength. So, let's take a look at how the dynamics of Cash Flows look like in the Fundamental Strength Indicator. These are three lines of different colors, which are located over the Histogram. Each of the flows corresponds to a specific color: — Operating cash flow: green line; — Investing cash flow: orange line; — Financing cash flow: red line. In this way, I can track the dynamics of the company's Cash Flow over time. To interpret the dynamics of Cash Flows, I pay attention to the following patterns: — How the cash flows are positioned in relation to each other; — In which zone each of the cash flows is located: in the positive or negative; — What is the trend of each of the cash flows; — How volatile each of the cash flows is. As an example, let's look at several companies to interpret the dynamics of their Cash Flows. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. This is the most ideal situation for me: operating cash flow (green line) is above the other cash flows, investment cash flow (orange line) is near zero and practically unchanged, and financial cash flow (red line) is consistently below zero. This picture shows that the company lives off its operating cash flow, does not increase its debt, does not spend a substantial amount of money on expensive purchases, and retains (does not sell off) assets. Parker Hannifin Corporation With stable operating cash flow (green line), the company implements investment programs by raising additional funding. This is noticeable due to an increase in financial cash flow (red line) and a simultaneous decrease in investment cash flow (orange line) with a significant deepening into negative areas. Apparently, there is not enough operating cash flow to realize the planned investments. One has to wonder how sustainable a company can be if it invests in its development using borrowed funds. Schlumberger N. V. The chaotic intertwining of cash flows outside the Fundamental Strength range (-15 to 15) is indicative of the company's rich life, but to me, it is an indicator of high riskiness of its actions. And as we can see, Fundamental Strength has only begun to strengthen in the last year, when the external appearance of cash flow has normalized. Thus, when the Fundamental Strength of two companies is equally good, I use an additional filter in the form of Cash Flow dynamics. This helps me to clarify my interest in this or that company. What is the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator: — allows for a quantitative assessment of a company's financial performance in points (from -15 to 15 points); — allows you to visually track how the company's financial performance has changed (positively/negatively) over time; — allows to visually trace the movement of main cash flows over time; — accelerates the process of selecting companies for your shortlist (if you are focused on financial results when selecting companies); — allows you to protect yourself from investing in companies with weak and mediocre fundamentals. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: — works only on a daily timeframe; — only applies to shares of public companies; — company financial statements for the last 4 quarters and more are required; — it is necessary to have the data from the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement, required for the calculation. If at least one component required for calculating the Fundamental Strength is missing, the message "no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly" is displayed. In the same case, but for the operating cash flow, the message "no data to calculate the Operating Cash Flow correctly" is shown, and similarly for other flows. Risk disclaimer: When working with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the additional filter in the form of Cash Flows, you should understand that the publication of the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement takes place sometime after the end of the financial quarter. This means that new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statements. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the values of the Indicator after the publication of new statements. The magnitude of this change will depend both on the content of the new statements and on the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statements. Until the date of publication of the new statements, the latest relevant data will be used for calculations. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the calculation of Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows requires the availability of data for all parameters of the valuation model . It uses data that is exclusively available on TradingView (there is no reconciliation with other sources). If at least one parameter is missing, I switch to another company's analysis to continue using the indicator. Thus, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and an additional filter in the form of Cash Flows make it possible to evaluate the financial results of the company based on the available data and the methodology I created. A simple visualization in the form of a three-color Histogram, a Blue line, and three thick Cash Flow lines significantly reduces the time for selecting fundamentally strong companies that fit the criteria of the selected model. However, this Indicator and/or its description and/or examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
COST OF BREAKING TRADING RULESJesse Livermore is one of the most famous and successful traders of the last century. During his lifetime he was nicknamed "The Great Bear" because he actively sold stock assets during the Great Depression and managed to make a multimillion-dollar fortune. Wikipedia mentions that Livermore made and lost significant sums on the stock market more than once during his lifetime. He was distinguished from his contemporaries by his aggressive manner of intraday trading. Today we want to tell you about Livermore's life and his own rules of trading on financial markets. ✴️ THE BEGINNING OF HIS CAREER The ascent of the trading legend began with the stock exchange offices in Boston. Livermore did not take part in trading, but only recorded constantly updated asset prices on a special board. It is important to realize that at the beginning of the 20th century, prices on stock exchanges were transmitted by telegraph. Having a good capacity for exact knowledge and impeccable memory for numbers, Livermore was the first to discover patterns in trend reversal models. Contemporaries note that Livermore was not sociable. All the young trader's attention was focused on price changes of liquid assets. It is noteworthy that he used only numerical sequences to make trading decisions, especially not being interested in the reasons for rising or falling prices. Having gained a little experience in exchange offices in Boston, Livermore began to keep a notebook in which he recorded all the identified patterns in the dynamics of asset pricing. Biographical literature notes that at that time he was not interested in trades with large sums. The young trader was fascinated by the patterns in the behavior of prices, confirmations of which he was constantly looking for in practice. Some time later, his friend offered to buy a share of the company "Burlington". Having checked his records and convinced that the price would rise in the near future, Livermore invested 5$ in the mentioned brand, earning more than 3$ in a couple of days. This was Livermore's first and highly successful trade. ✴️ WALL STREET CAREER At the age of 21, the talented trader moved to New York with the aim of conquering the stock market, having $2500 earned in small stock exchange offices in Boston. Livermore could not open an account with any of these companies because his name was on the rumor. Even then, he claimed to close a trade with a profit 7 times out of 10. No small brokerage firm wanted him among their clients, as he could easily bankrupt it. Eventually he was able to open an account on Wall Street, investing all the money he had into the trade. To everyone's surprise, it ended with a complete loss of deposit. The reason is as follows: Livermore was a hardened proponent of short-term trading, capitalizing on minor price fluctuations. Information about the actual value of assets was transmitted by liquidity providers to Wall Street with significant delays, which led to inaccurate short-term trading. While in Boston, small firms used telephone tape orders and processed customer orders almost instantaneously, this was impossible in the real market conditions of the time. The manager of a Wall Street brokerage house was kind to the young trader and saw potential in him. When Livermore lost his capital due to technical reasons, he lent him $500 to disperse his deposit in illegal brokerage houses. Livermore then heads to St. Louis, where he makes $2,800 in a matter of days. The company removes him from the number of clients, and also notifies all brokerage houses in the vicinity about the appearance of an overly successful participant of trades. Back in New York, Livermore managed to earn another $5,000 while trading at one of the illegal brokerage houses in New York, and then reopened an account on Wall Street. Livermore managed to make good money on the global growth of the US stock market in 1901. On his account was the sum of 50 000$. However, later, against the background of high volatility, Livermore lost all his money and was forced to go to his hometown to earn money. After some time, Livermore again started to ruin brokerage houses in Boston, acting through his friends. He managed to save the necessary amount for a third return to New York and open another account on Wall Street. ✴️ THE 1907 MARKET CRASH AND THE GREAT DEPRESSION In 1906 Livermore foresaw a global decline in the prices of railroad company stocks under the influence of natural disasters. In 1907, there was indeed a decline in prices, but not as rapid as the trader saw it. Then big banks managed to support the value of shares of industrial companies. Trying to sell in a growing market, Livermore again lost almost all of his fortune. He decided to stop trading and wait for a signal to enter the sell-off with all his remaining funds. Just as Livermore had anticipated, the railroad companies were going through a tough time and the stock rushed downward. The economic situation in the country was so critical that the companies were ready to sell their shares to investors in installments with the participation of banks, but the latter were not sure that investors would be able to fulfill their financial obligations in the near future. As a result, in 1907 there was a global collapse of the stock market in the U.S., and Livermore managed to earn 250,000$. In October of the same year, the panic of businesses reached its peak and banks started sending their representatives to Livermore asking him to stop selling stocks as it could lead to global economic problems in the US. Under this influence Livermore closed short positions, opening all capital to buy at the point of trend reversal. This trade brought him 3,000,000$ net profit in 9 months. During the period from 1907 to 1929, trading volumes on the U.S. stock market increased significantly. Almost every resident of the country invested in stocks. The reason for the growth of financial literacy of the population and popularity of the stock market was the large-scale advertising campaigns of private brokerage firms. Nevertheless, in 1929 there was a large-scale market crash. The reason for the downtrend, among other things, was a multimillion sell trade, which was conducted by dozens of brokers under the leadership of Livermore. This trade brought him more than 100,000,000$ of profit, which by today's standards can be compared to a billion. ✴️ JESSE LIVERMORE'S TRADING RULES Today the following Livermore's rules of capital management in financial markets may sound cliché, but at the beginning of the last century every trader was familiar with them. Let us pay attention to them too: 1. Don't average losses. It is important to realize that the principles of pricing liquid assets have changed significantly since the beginning of the last century. 2. Do not exceed risk tolerance. Livermore used to set the maximum risk per trade at about 10% of capital. 3. There is no need to quickly secure in profits if the trend is moving in your direction. The reason for closing an order can only be objective factors that indicate a correction or reversal. 4. Withdraw 50% of profits after each trade. Livermore had an unwavering rule to withdraw part of the profit. The investor himself explained it by the unpredictability of the market. 5. One should enter the market only when there are appropriate signals. ✴️ CONCLUSION Perhaps it is worth mentioning that in 1930, Livermore broke his own rule by investing all his funds in one trade, after which he became bankrupt. In those years, he no longer had the strength to start over, and he decided to write a book on stock trading with the simple title "How to Trade Stocks?" He hoped that the work would become a bestseller, which would give him recognition and wealth. However, this did not happen, and in 1940, Livermore shot himself in one of the hotels in New York. The official reason for the shooting, if Wikipedia is to be believed, was depression. Livermore was a truly great trader who, during his lifetime, had a significant impact on both the decline and growth of the U.S. economy.
Education
by DeGRAM
3
: Trade the News: Part 2 - ForexTitle bar: Trade the News: Part 2 - Forex Content: Welcome back to our two-part series designed on how to harness the additional volume and volatility that news breaths into the market. In part 1 we unveiled a 3-step template for trading scheduled newsflow effectively in the stock market, in part 2, we delve into the 24-hour world of forex trading. A News Trading Paradise The forex market, with its deep liquidity and 24-hour execution, stands as an ideal arena for news traders. Deep liquidity ensures minimal slippage, even during heightened market activity, giving traders a significant advantage. This abundance of liquidity allows for the accommodation of large order sizes without causing substantial price fluctuations. Operating 24 hours a day, five days a week, the forex market provides an uninterrupted trading environment. News can break at any time, offering traders a constant stream of opportunities. Whether it's the Asian, European, or North American trading session, the forex market is alive, creating a dynamic backdrop for traders to capitalise on global news events. Central Bank Bingo Forex markets, particularly major currency pairs, sway to the decisions of central banks and their monetary policies. In the game of 'central bank bingo,' the market closely analyses statements from major central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB). Every word, tone, and nuance is scrutinised, comparing them to previous statements and underlying expectations. Key Types of Scheduled News Events in Forex Scheduled news events in forex primarily fall into two categories: economic data and central bank news. 1. Economic Data: Inflation Data: Central banks closely monitor inflation as it directly impacts monetary policy decisions. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Forex traders track GDP releases to assess the overall economic health of a nation, influencing currency strength. Employment Data / Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Employment data, especially U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP), is a significant indicator of economic health. This data is crucial for the USD and has a big impact on major currency pairs. 2. Central Bank News: Interest Rate Decisions: It goes without saying that interest rate decisions have a direct impact on currency values – a surprise rate hike or cut has the potential to create high levels of volatility. Central Bank Statements: Verbal cues from central bank officials play a pivotal role in guiding market expectations. Central bank statements provide insights into the thought process and considerations influencing monetary policy. Traders carefully analyse these statements for indications of potential policy changes. Central Bank Live Press Conference: Following an interest rate decision, the head of the central bank often conducts a live press conference. This event is considered the toughest to plan for, as it introduces an element of unpredictability. Central bank officials may provide additional context, clarification, or unexpected statements during the press conference, leading to potential curveballs that impact currency markets. Traders need to stay vigilant and adapt quickly to any surprises that may arise during this live interaction. Trading Forex: E.R.T. 3-Step Method Revisited Let's revisit the E.R.T. framework outlined in Part 1 and tailor it to forex trading. Step 1: Expectation: Understand theoretical and real-world expectations. Theoretical expectations are clearer in forex and easily obtained from financial calendar websites. Gauging real-world expectations involves recognizing signs of overbought/oversold conditions. Use higher and lower timeframes to gauge market expectations prior to a news event. Step 2: Reaction: Analogies of the damp firework, grower, or shock still apply. Beware of 'fakeouts,' where the market initially breaks in one direction before a sharp reversal. Step 3: Trade: Combine news-based catalyst with a technical catalyst to create a trade setup. Major forex pairs offer guaranteed liquidity, allowing exploration of lower timeframes like the 5-minute chart for precise entries. Have a small playbook of patterns that you are comfortable trading. For ideas, check out our Power Patterns series (link at bottom of the page). Case Study: EUR/USD: January Non-Farm Payrolls 1. Expectation Theoretical Expectations: Consensus analyst estimates for January NFP was 180k versus 333k the month prior. Average hourly earnings were expected to be 4.1 versus 4.4 the month prior, and the unemployment rate was expected to be 3.8% versus 3.7% the month prior. Market Expectations: Higher Timeframe (daily candle chart): On the daily candle chart, we can see that market positioning is relatively neutral / mildly bearish for EUR/USD – reflecting a slight disconnect to the theoretical expectations. Theoretical expectations are for a weak NFP number which would in theory send EUR/USD higher. However, the RSI is at the 50 mark and the market has formed a small descending channel in recent weeks – signalling mild levels of USD strength. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Lower Timeframe (5min candle chart): Ahead of the release of the NFP data at 1:30pm UK time, we can see that the market is coiled in a tight range at the top of the descending channel. This indicates that the market is positioning for a weak / in-line NFP reading. We can assume that a strong NFP reading should see prices break swiftly lower. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Reaction The NFP number hits our screens, the number is 353k! A massive beat, Average Hourly Earnings (4.5%) and Unemployment Rate (3.7%) also beat theoretical expectations. On the 5min candle chart, the market prints a large bearish momentum candle – breaking below multiple levels of support. At this point we do not look to chase the market, instead we check our playbook for momentum continuation trades and look to take one of those setups. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Trade The trade setup we’re going for here is a pullback to anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Using the Trading View anchored VWAP tool, we can anchored our VWAP to the NFP breakout. We look to sell into a pullback towards the anchored VWAP with stops placed above the swing highs on the 5min chart. Our target on the trade is the bottom of the descending channel formed on the daily candle chart. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
A simple guide to creating a solid portfolio.Hello, Creating a solid portfolio can be a tough task for most investors. Understanding easy ways of beginning that journey can greatly improve your performance as an investor & greatly amplify your results. The times of just buying the S&P and waiting for your money to keep growing is long gone & active investing can widen the gap between yourself and the normal investor. Below we will be guiding on how you can future proof your stock picks using the NAS100 as an example & point of beginning. 1: Understand the index Understanding the index you want to begin with is the 1st point to look at. This will help you choose the correct index for your journey. In our case The Nasdaq 100 is an index of the hundred largest non-financial stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The companies included in this index are often technology or biotechnology firms. 2: Do an analysis of where the index is trading at A simple analysis of where the index is trading at guides you on where most of its components would be trading at. In our case the index is correcting giving as hope that we will easily find companies that are in great points for future buys. The health of the companies will be key in our choices. The chart below shows that we are in correction 3: Know the components of your index All the components of the NAS 100 can be easily found on the www.tradingview.com website via link www.tradingview.com A simple google search will also list all this companies for you. The NAS 100 has 100 components meaning that you have 100 companies to look at. For the purpose of this educational post we will be looking at the biggest 3 companies in the index. We shall evaluate the 3 companies using both fundamental analysis & technical analysis. From fundamental analysis we shall look at key metrics in the balance sheet (does the company have debt), From the income statement (Are revenues steadily increasing over time) & Cashflow statement (Does the company have positive free cashflow). Please note that you can always get deeper with understanding the companies more. Companies that you can access their products are even better for retail investors. Next, we shall evaluate the 3 companies from a technical view using wave analysis. We shall then make calls on whether we are looking for buys or sells or wait recommendations. The 3 companies we shall evaluate are Microsoft, Apple & Alphabet. Company 1: Microsoft Microsoft Corp engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. Key metrics 1: Does the company have debt: (Yes) 2023: Total debt 79.44 billion : Total Debt represents all the interest-bearing obligations of the company, regardless of when these obligations are due for payments. 2:Are revenues steadily increasing over time? Yes ( 2021: USD 168 billion, 2022: USD 198.27 billion, 2023: USD 211.92 billion) 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow Yes (2023: USD 59.48) Technical analysis Company 2: Apple Apple, Inc engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other variety of related services. Key metrics 1: Does the company have debt: Total debt: Total debt USD 123.93 billion : Total Debt represents all the interest-bearing obligations of the company, regardless of when these obligations are due for payments. 2:Are revenues steadily increasing over time? YES 2021: ‪USD 365.82 B‬ 2022: USD 394.33 B‬ 2023: USD ‪383.29 B‬ 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow: YES; USD 99.58 billion Technical analysis We have an alert for buy from USD 170.8 areas Company 3: Alphabet Alphabet, Inc is a holding company. It operates through the Google segment which includes its main Internet products such as ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Key Metrics 1: Does the company have debt: YES ‪USD 29.87 B‬ 2: Are revenues steadily increasing over time? YES. 2022: USD 280.88 B‬, 2023: USD 307.16B 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow: YES. USD 69.50 Billion Technical analysis Buying at current place not good. Look for sell if price breaks trendline aggressively. Below are our recommendations for the 3 stocks. Microsoft: No trade setup Apple: Look for buy from USD 170.8 areas Alphabet: Buying at current place not good. Look for sell if price breaks trendline aggressively. We will then look at all the other stocks that make the components of the index using the above metrics & choose the best stocks to invest in. Good luck in your journey. We shall be sharing more educational content.
FX:NAS100Education
by thesharkke
10