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Fundamental Analysis

Traders Help the Economy in 4 Ways!When you trade and invest, there are many elements that you will continue to help contribute to. I can think of 4 main ways including: Way #1: You help with liquidity (volume) Remember, you are the intermediary in the markets. When you exchange money and buy and sell, you’re helping provide liquidity and volume. This makes it easier for other market participants to trade and manage risk. No matter how small or big the account size is, every trade counts. (Similar to the butterfly effect). Way #2: Helping our fellow brokers and managers Yes I know most people can’t stand the fact of the fat cats making millions of rands off other portfolios. But in South Africa, I find that most brokers are very small and don’t earn a lot of money. (Some small brokers earn under R25,000 per month). So when you buy and sell trades, you will help pay the small brokerage fees, which will aid to the salaries of the brokers you are using. Way #3: When you pay brokerage and fees, it creates more jobs When you pay the brokerage and trading platform fees. You are not only helping the brokers. But also the company they work for. The more money that goes into the firms, the more jobs that are created for other employees (Facilitators, marketers, support staff, risk managers, accountants, analysts, domestic workers, etc…) Way #4: This brings growth to your broker or market maker When your broker is doing well, as they have good clients and investors – this gives them a bigger incentive to help build and grow the company further including: · Better technology. · Better innovation · Better efficiency · Better features in the business This will also improve your experience with their growth developments. And so, I’m sure you can see that even if you want to trade for yourself, you will still be helping many companies, people and the economy as a whole… Nothing to feel bad about.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
5 DANGERS of Trading Penny StocksJust so you know. I believe if you’re following a world renown and successful Penny Share expert, you’re in good hands. They are able to spot low risk investments and guide you through the process of owning great Penny Stocks. But as a trader , who only looks at charts – THIS IS DANGEROUS TERRITORY. Remember, Penny Shares are high risk, high volatile, low credible companies that are LOW prices i.e. Under $1.00. And so, I just want to write as a trader point of view five key reasons why penny stocks can be dangerous to traders. DANGER #1: High Volatility (Jumpiness) Penny stocks are notorious for their high volatility. These stocks tend to experience rapid and drastic price fluctuations, often without apparent reasons. I’m talking about companies that can jump 10%, 30% and even 70% in a day. The lack of stability and price predictability can make it very difficult for traders to make informed decisions. Sudden price jumps or drops can result in significant gains or losses within a short period, amplifying the risk factor. And if you place your stop loss within a tight range, there’s a bigger chance you’ll get stopped out. DANGER #2: Low Liquidity (Less Volume) Think of Liquidity like the flow of water. It tells you the ease of being able to BUY or SELL a market, without impacting too much of the price. Once again, we look for low to medium volatility. Penny stocks typically have low liquidity due to limited trading volume. With fewer buyers and sellers in the market, it can be difficult to execute trades at the prices you want. And this leads to slippage and even higher transaction costs. Also, low liquidity may also prevent you from even entering or exiting your positions quickly. And this can even TRAP you in an unfavourable market environment for an extended period of time. DANGER #3: Not Established Businesses Penny stocks are often associated with small, early-stage companies that are not yet established in their respective industries. These companies may lack a proven track record, have limited financial history, and face various operational and market risks. So if you want to invest in these type of companies as a trader, it’s better you do it with fundamentals, research, business models and future prospects. If you do it purely on speculative purposes, this could be very risky for your portfolio. DANGER #4: More Likely to Head to Zero Yes all trading requires levels and degrees of risk and rewards. But it is not worth it, if some petty company is doing really badly and is showing signs of going to 0.00. Penny stocks are more susceptible to declining in value and potentially heading towards zero. I mean, South Africa has witnessed instances where penny stocks have experienced substantial losses, which took out a ton of investors. For example, companies like African Bank Investments Ltd (ABIL) and Oakbay Resources and Energy Limited serve as cautionary tales, where investors lost huge amounts as these companies approached or reached bankruptcy. Talking about bankruptcy. DANGER #5: High Chance of Bankruptcy and Liquidations Penny stocks are also more likely to go bankrupt or get liquidated compared to a Blue-chip stock. This is because of the nature of the companies, the inexperience, the lack of funds and structure, as well as its credibility. Financial instability, mismanagement, or unfavourable market conditions can lead to the collapse of these businesses. We saw this also in South Africa with the liquidation of Sharemax Investments and the bankruptcy of Pamodzi Gold Limited. This lead investors with little to no value for their investments. So remember this as a traders We want low volatility, high liquidity (volume), credible companies with great reputations, track record and credibility. And we want attractive charts that work with our trading strategies. If you want to be a savvy Penny Share investor that's fine. But as a trader, I have given my precautions.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Diversification in Cryptocurrency InvestingIn the evolving world of finance, cryptocurrencies have carved a unique niche, attracting investors worldwide due to their potential for high returns. With over 6,000 cryptocurrencies in existence as of mid-2023, investors have a multitude of choices when building a crypto portfolio. However, the inherent volatility of the crypto market also means a higher degree of risk. One way to manage this risk is through portfolio diversification. This comprehensive guide will delve into the principles and strategies of diversification in the context of cryptocurrency investing. Understanding Diversification Diversification, in financial parlance, is the practice of spreading investments among different types of assets to reduce risk. The primary purpose is to limit exposure to any single asset, thereby mitigating potential losses. As the saying goes, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." When applied to cryptocurrencies, diversification entails spreading investments across a variety of crypto assets. Given the high volatility and unpredictability of the crypto market, diversification doesn't completely eradicate the risk. However, it does offer a certain degree of protection against the extreme price swings characteristic of individual cryptocurrencies. Importance of Diversification in Crypto Investing The need for diversification in crypto investing stems from the market's inherent volatility. Due to factors such as regulatory news, technological advancements, market sentiment, and macroeconomic trends, crypto prices can fluctuate wildly within short periods. While this volatility can provide opportunities for significant gains, it also exposes investors to substantial losses. A diversified portfolio helps to mitigate these risks. If one cryptocurrency in the portfolio experiences a significant decline, the impact on the entire portfolio may be cushioned by other cryptocurrencies that remain stable or increase in value. Diversification Strategies in Cryptocurrency Investing A well-diversified crypto portfolio involves more than holding an assortment of cryptocurrencies. It requires a strategic approach that considers various factors such as the types of cryptocurrencies, token sectors, blockchain ecosystems, investment strategies, and balancing crypto and non-crypto assets. Types of Cryptocurrencies There are thousands of cryptocurrencies available for investment, each with its unique features, use cases, and market behavior. A diversified portfolio could include a mix of the following: - Bitcoin (BTC): As the first and most prominent cryptocurrency, Bitcoin often forms the foundation of many crypto portfolios. - Ethereum (ETH): Known for its smart contract functionality, Ethereum is another major player in the crypto world. - Altcoins: These are alternatives to Bitcoin and include a wide range of cryptocurrencies like Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and many others. - Stablecoins: These are digital tokens designed to minimize volatility by pegging their value to a reserve of assets, usually a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar. Token Sectors Investing across different token sectors offers another level of diversification. Some of the main categories include: - Decentralized Finance (DeFi): DeFi projects aim to emulate traditional financial systems in a decentralized manner. This sector includes cryptocurrencies related to lending platforms, decentralized exchanges, and yield farming platforms. - Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): These are unique digital assets that represent ownership of specific items or pieces of content on the blockchain. - Utility Tokens: These are tokens used to access services within a specific blockchain ecosystem. Blockchain Ecosystems Investing in various blockchain ecosystems is a powerful diversification strategy. Each blockchain has its unique features, community, and associated tokens. By investing across multiple blockchains, you are effectively spreading risk and potential rewards across various platforms. Some of the prominent blockchain ecosystems include Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, Polkadot, Solana, and Cardano. Diversification through Investment Strategies Investment strategies also play a significant role in portfolio diversification. Some of these strategies include: - Holding (HODLing): This involves buying and holding cryptocurrencies for a long time, irrespective of short-term price fluctuations. - Trading: This involves buying and selling cryptocurrencies based on short-term price movements. This strategy can be further divided into day trading, swing trading, and arbitrage trading. - Staking: In proof-of-stake (PoS) and its variants, you can participate in the network's consensus mechanism by holding and staking your coins, earning new coins as a reward. - Yield Farming: This involves lending or providing liquidity to DeFi platforms in return for interest and fees. Balancing Crypto and Non-Crypto Assets Lastly, diversification also includes maintaining a balance between crypto and non-crypto assets. Even if you're heavily invested in crypto, it may be wise to hold a portion of your portfolio in traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This can provide stability during turbulent crypto market conditions and offer returns that are not correlated with the crypto market. How to Diversify Your Cryptocurrency Portfolio Step 1: Understand Your Risk Tolerance Before investing in any asset, including cryptocurrencies, you need to understand your risk tolerance. Ask yourself how much risk you are willing to take and how much investment you are ready to lose without affecting your financial stability. Step 2: Research Cryptocurrencies Conduct thorough research on different types of cryptocurrencies. Understand their underlying technology, use-cases, and potential for future growth. This will help you select a mix of coins for your portfolio. You should also stay updated on crypto market trends, news, and regulatory changes as these can significantly affect crypto prices. Step 3: Choose a Variety of Coins A well-diversified crypto portfolio should contain a mix of established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as promising altcoins. However, you should not randomly select coins. Each cryptocurrency in your portfolio should be backed by thorough research and sound reasoning. Step 4: Diversify Across Sectors and Ecosystems Invest in cryptocurrencies across different sectors (DeFi, NFTs, utility tokens, etc.) and blockchain ecosystems (Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, Polkadot, etc.). This can help reduce exposure to risks associated with a particular sector or ecosystem. Step 5: Use Different Investment Strategies Utilize a combination of investment strategies such as long-term holding, trading, staking, and yield farming. Different strategies can help spread risk and maximize returns. Step 6: Balance Your Portfolio with Non-Crypto Assets To safeguard your portfolio from extreme crypto market volatility, consider investing a portion of your portfolio in traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or commodities. Step 7: Regularly Monitor and Rebalance Your Portfolio The crypto market is highly volatile and can change quickly. Regular monitoring allows you to track the performance of your investments and make necessary adjustments. Rebalancing involves adjusting your portfolio periodically to maintain your desired level of asset allocation and risk. Potential Limitations of Diversification in Cryptocurrency Investing While diversification is a generally recommended strategy for managing investment risk, it does come with certain potential limitations. Investors must be aware of these aspects when building a diversified cryptocurrency portfolio. Reduced Potential Returns Diversification aims to mitigate risk by spreading investments across various assets. However, this approach can also potentially limit gains. If you invest in a wide array of cryptocurrencies, your portfolio may not grow as much when one cryptocurrency experiences a dramatic price increase. Essentially, while diversification helps limit downside risk, it may also cap the upside potential. Over-Diversification While having a variety of investments can help to reduce risk, there is such a thing as over-diversification. If you hold too many different cryptocurrencies, it can become challenging to effectively monitor and manage your investments. Additionally, if the number of investments is too large, the positive performance of one asset might be negated by the poor performance of another. Increased Complexity Maintaining a diversified portfolio can be complex and time-consuming. Each cryptocurrency needs to be researched thoroughly before being added to the portfolio, and even after the investment, it needs to be monitored continuously. This process can become overwhelming, especially when investing across various token sectors and blockchain ecosystems. Costs Diversification can sometimes come with higher costs. If you're trading or transferring your cryptocurrencies frequently to maintain a diversified portfolio, transaction fees or "gas fees" can add up. For small portfolios, these costs might make diversification less effective. Lack of Correlation Data In traditional finance, assets are often chosen for diversification based on their correlation. In the cryptocurrency market, however, the relatively short history and high volatility can make it challenging to determine reliable correlation coefficients. This lack of reliable data can sometimes limit the effectiveness of diversification. Conclusion: Diversifying the Smart Way Diversification is a powerful strategy to manage the inherent risk associated with investing, particularly in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies. However, successful diversification requires a deep understanding of the crypto market, careful analysis of individual crypto assets, and regular portfolio review and rebalancing. Diversification strategies should be personalized to fit an individual's risk tolerance, investment goals, and knowledge level about cryptocurrencies. With the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, staying informed and adaptable is crucial to maintaining a diversified and resilient crypto portfolio. Remember, while diversification can mitigate risk, it does not guarantee profit or protect entirely against loss in a declining market. As always, thorough research and due diligence are vital before making any investment decisions.
Education
by ShawnMCR
30
AN ICT FAIR VALUE GAPS(GAPS AND INEFFICIENCIES)WHAT IS AN ICT FAIR VALUE GAP? An ICT Fair Value Gap is a level in between candlestick that price inefficiently left open. These are little pockets of inefficienct levels that are left opened in other for price to later come back to those left out Gaps to be later filled up TYPES OF FAIR VALUE GAPS 1. Bullish Fair value Gaps : This gaps are also known as the Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency(BISI). As the name implies, only buyers participated in the move up and left a porous price action in it's wake in the form of a Sellside Inefficiency. Examples are illustrated below 2. Bearish Fair Value Gaps : This gaps are also known as the Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency(SIBI). As the name implies, only sellers participated in the move downwards and left a porous price action in it's wake in the form of a buyside Inefficiency. Examples are illustrated below HOW TO USE FVG FOR ENTRIES Just like you can make use of the FVG's to determine the direction on the HigherTimeFrame, it can also be used to for entries on the LowerTimeframe(1min - 15min). Hints to take note of For a FVG to be valid for entries, it have to follow the following contet/Framework, which are 1. The FVG must only be used on a Time Session 2. When the bias found is Bullish, there has to be a form of Sellstops taken/an SMT formed with the benchmark for the asset class you are trading with and vice versa for a Bearish Bias After the criteria's have been met, look for FVG and trade into it Examples of Entry models with the use of FVG's following the given criteria's CME_MINI:NQU2023 Criteria 1 : Session must be aligned Criteria 2 : Since Price is Bullish, look at the sellstops it took out All criteria's have been met, head to look for the FVG to take a trade... FOREXCOM:EURUSD Criteria 1 : Look for buystops to be taken, while being bearish this time around Criteria 2 : Make sure that to sell into a bearish FVG(SIBI), price must be in a suitable trading session All criteria's have been met, head to look for a FVG to trade within the session Hope you have learnt a thing or two about how to effectively make use of an ICT Fair Value Gap(FVG)? To get more proficient at using FVG's, you should backtest and study FVG's on your own Good-Luck and Good Trading!!
Education
by ifeanyichukwu_E
5
Decoding Forex Mysteries: USDCHF & EURGBP Reaction to Rate HikesWelcome to the intriguing world of Forex, where currencies act at their own rhythm, sometimes defying expectations and confounding even the most experienced traders. In this article, we are going to unravel the “mysteries” surrounding the reactions of USDCHF and EURGBP to recent interest rate hikes. We will dive into the realms of market anticipation, monetary policy statements, and the significance of staying ahead in this dynamic landscape. 1. The Resilience of USDCHF As the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises interest rates from 1.5% to 1.75%, market observers brace for the anticipated downward movement of the USDCHF. However, contrary to expectations, the currency pair displays remarkable resilience. Let's explore the underlying factors: a) Priced-in Expectations: The forex market is renowned for its ability to assimilate information in advance. It is likely that market participants had already factored in the interest rate hike, blunting the immediate impact on USDCHF. Such anticipatory behavior highlights the importance of staying attuned to prevailing sentiment and analyzing market positioning. b) Comparative Interest Rates: Understanding the relative interest rates of different currencies is paramount. If the rate hike in Switzerland was aligned with or lower than market expectations, and other major currencies offered more attractive rates, investors might have favored those currencies, mitigating the downward pressure on USDCHF. c) Monetary Policy Statement Outlook: Monetary policy statements accompanying interest rate decisions provide crucial insights into central banks' future intentions (you can usually watch them live on YouTube 30 minutes after the data release or on Bloomberg type of channels). Since the SNB's statement revealed a cautious and neutral stance, it has tempered the impact of the rate hike on USDCHF. Market participants pay close attention to forward guidance, as it shapes expectations regarding future policy actions and influences currency movements. 2. The Curious Behavior of EURGBP Let us now turn our attention to EURGBP, which failed to sustain a short sentiment following the Bank of England's interest rate hike from 4.5% to 5.00% (versus the expected 4.75%) and left a nasty week. To understand this curious behavior, we delve into the following factors: a) Market Expectations: The forex market is often driven by expectations and anticipatory positioning. If traders had already priced in the interest rate hike, the actual announcement might not have triggered a significant market reaction. Therefore, the lack of sustained short sentiment in EURGBP could be attributed to market participants adjusting their positions in advance. The GBP was up already by 4% within the last month against major currencies, so a big chunk of market was already longing EG for the expected short term recovery (guilty, but we also made a 2.9% profit closure on this). b) Monetary Policy Outlook: Beyond interest rate changes, central banks' monetary policy outlooks play a vital role in shaping currency dynamics. The accompanying statement from the Bank of England, which shed light on their future plans, indicated a more gradual approach to tightening or expressed concerns about economic conditions. Such cues influence market sentiment and limit the downward pressure on EURGBP. In case of UK, this is already not a good look with their inflation rates :/ Now, you may ask: “Investroy, what do we do if fundamentals don’t exhibit the expected economical impact?” Don’t worry, we got you! A Prerequisite for Success In the ever-evolving forex market, staying ahead of the curve is crucial. To navigate the intricacies and maximize opportunities, traders must adopt a proactive approach: a) Monitor Central Bank Communications: Understanding central banks' intentions requires careful analysis of their policy statements, speeches, and press conferences. These sources provide valuable clues about future policy decisions and can guide trading strategies. b) Assess Economic Indicators: Keep a keen eye on economic indicators that impact currency valuations, such as GDP, inflation, and employment data. These indicators provide a foundation for understanding a country's economic health and can influence currency movements. c) Stay Informed of Geopolitical Developments: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes or political instability, can significantly impact forex markets. Being aware of these developments and their potential consequences on currency movements is crucial for staying ahead. d) Analyze Market Sentiment: Sentiment analysis, gauging the collective psychology of market participants, can offer valuable insights. Monitoring market sentiment through various indicators, such as positioning data and sentiment surveys, helps identify potential shifts and align trading strategies accordingly. e) Embrace Technological Tools: Utilize advanced trading platforms and tools that provide real-time data, customizable charts, and algorithmic trading capabilities. These resources empower traders to analyze market trends, spot patterns, and execute trades swiftly. Bonus) this one is a little subjective, but markets are very cyclic, if something is oversold, but everybody is expecting further bearish move, be sure there is a retracement coming before that happens 😊 Stay safe and enjoy your day!
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Education
by Investroy
23
Optimal Guide to Action Trades BetterThere are only a few decisions you need to make as a trader. When you actually need to press buttons to action trades. To enter, to adjust and to exit. It’s crucial for you to know when is the right time to do so. You need to consider certain factors and criteria to enhance the chance of profitability. And at the same time to mitigate risks. So here are four optimal actions you’ll need to take. When the Trading Signals Line Up – ACTION! This one is a given. When your trading system, strategy and signal all align. This refers to the convergence of multiple indicators or technical analysis tools, such as breakout patterns, Smart Money Concepts, moving averages, trend lines, or oscillators. When these signals confirm each other, it presents a higher probability trade setup. You need to wait for the confirmation though and the go ahead. This way, you’ll gain the competitive edge for when to enter and to avoid premature trades. Adjust the Stop Loss or Take Profit Levels – ACTION! During a trade, it is essential to monitor the market closely and be ready to adjust the stop loss or take profit levels (according to your strategy). This should NOT be guess work. This should be calculated on probabilities and in a way that you can optimise the strategy in a mechanical fashion. The stop loss is a predetermined level that limits the potential loss on a trade. While the take profit is a predefined level at which a trader intends to exit the trade with a profit. As the market evolves, price action and new information may necessitate revising these levels to protect profits or minimize losses. Which we often do as traders to increase the win rate and lock in potential and minimal profits. Traders should remain flexible and make timely adjustments to ensure their trade is aligned with the prevailing market conditions. When the Time Stop Loss Hits – ACTION! In certain trading scenarios, there may be a need to exit a trade before it becomes a long-term investment. This is particularly relevant in markets where overnight positions incur daily interest charges, such as in some derivative or forex markets. Traders must set a predetermined time stop loss i.e. 7 weeks holding a trade. You don’t want to incur too many interest charges. You don’t want to MARRY a trade. You don’t want to have capital tied up in stock during nonperforming trades. This is an opportunity cost where you can choose better trades to line up. If this time stop loss is reached, it is prudent to exit the trade (no matter what time of day it is), even if it is still within the specified stop loss or take profit levels. Either you’ll take a less than desired profit or less than expected loss. By adhering to the time stop loss, traders can avoid accumulating excessive interest charges and maintain your trading strategy’s integrity. When a Freak Anomaly Spooks the Market, like a Black Swan – ACTION! In rare instances, unforeseen events or anomalies, often referred to as Black Swan events, can greatly disrupt financial markets. These events are characterized by their unpredictability and magnitude, causing extreme market volatility. Normally when a market or index moves 10 times the standard deviation of it’s normal move. When such anomalies occur, it is crucial to act swiftly and exit the trade. Trying to ride out these events can lead to substantial losses. By recognizing the abnormality and promptly exiting the trade, traders protect their capital and avoid unnecessary risks associated with highly volatile market conditions. That’s it. A few but powerful times you need to take action to lock in, protect, manage, bank and call it quits. Master this and you’ll make better and well-timed decisions and adapt your positions to changing market conditions.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
4
WHAT IS CUP AND HANDLE FORMATIONIn the traders' job the chart patterns indicating price changes are of great importance. This includes the "Cup and Handle" formation. A cup and handle is a popular chart pattern among technicians that was developed by William O’Neil and introduced in 1998. What does the pattern look like? "Cup with handle" is the term chosen because of the undeniable similarity between this type of dishes and what the trader sees on the chart. It is hard to judge how much this pattern is in demand among traders, because there are more practical interest formations. Cup The formation of a bullish trend is considered as an important condition that leads to the formation of such a position. Although experts consider it to be a reversal. "Cup with a handle" is formed at the moment when the correction of the previous rising direction of the chart takes place. At the same time, the trader should definitely pay attention to the depth of the chart. It is of interest if the formed slope does not exceed 80% of the trend that was before the formation of this specific pattern. The bottom of the formed bowl meets the period of price consolidation, upon its completion the ascent begins. Handle The handle on the chart means nothing else than the correction of prices in relation to those that were at the time when the right side of the cup was formed. Trades compare this section not so much to a pen as to a flag. Of interest is the situation when the flag begins to form immediately after the end of the formation of the right side of the cup. The length of the handle created by the chart should not exceed 50% of the size of the right side of the cup. The formation of this part of the graph takes quite a long time. The long-time interval indicates the subsequent formation of the trend. This section of the chart becomes fully complete only after the resistance level is broken. If we look at what we see on the chart from a practical point of view, we can say the following: when the left part of the cup is drawn, there is a gradual decline in prices, at the time of formation of the bottom they remain stably low, and during the creation of the right part there is a gradual increase in prices. At the moment of the breakdown a sharp increase in the number of trades is observed. How to trade the chart pattern on Forex Aggressive Conservative Regular Each of them has its own positive and negative characteristics. Low demand among the used Forex methodologies is caused by the fact that it requires taking into account a large number of indicators, otherwise the probability of making a mistake is very high. Particular difficulties may occur in the analysis of the depth and width of the chart figure. The probability of missing a profit when working with this type of chart is rather high. Aggressive method It is considered riskier. It is based on the behavior of the handle. The orders should be started after the breakout of the handle or, using another terminology, the breakout of the flag. In this case the "stop" position is placed below the level that the breakout of the candle. Regular Method The regular approach to trade positions are opened immediately after the breakdown of the pattern line. Stop-loss should be placed below the handle, that is, below the line involved in the formation of resistance. Conservative method It is used most often. It is based on the classical traditions of trading. Attention is paid to the breakdown of the technical line. The ideal variant is entering after the retest of the breakout line. The stop-loss should be below the handle or below the "breakout" candle from the breakout line (at least if it is big enough).
Education
by Lingrid
5
Forex Trading Key FactorsImportant factors that if well approached, will ensure your long term success. Forex trading is a popular form of investing that involves buying and selling currencies in the foreign exchange market. As with any form of trading, success in forex trading requires a deep understanding of the market and the key factors that impact profitability. In this blog post, we'll discuss some of the most important factors that traders need to keep in mind when trading forex. Liquidity: The Lifeblood of Forex Trading Liquidity refers to the ease with which a trader can buy or sell an asset without affecting its price. In forex trading, liquidity is crucial because it ensures that traders can enter and exit positions quickly and at a fair price. Traders should look for currency pairs that have high trading volumes and low bid-ask spreads to ensure they have access to liquid markets. Void Gaps: Managing Risk and Protecting Profits Void gaps occur when there is a sudden and significant change in the price of a currency pair due to unexpected news or events. These gaps can be dangerous for traders because they can cause losses or missed opportunities. To avoid void gaps, traders should use stop-loss orders and other risk management strategies to protect their positions and profits. Mindset: Discipline and Focus are Key Forex trading requires a disciplined and focused mindset. Traders must be able to control their emotions, avoid impulsive decisions, and stick to their trading plan. Common psychological traps that traders should be aware of include fear, greed, and overconfidence. By developing a disciplined and focused approach to trading, traders can improve their chances of success. Selecting the Right Trading Sessions: Timing is Everything Forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week. However, not all trading sessions are created equal. Traders should select the sessions that align with their trading style and goals. For example, traders who prefer short-term trading strategies may find the London and New York sessions to be the most active and volatile, while those who prefer longer-term strategies may focus on the Asian session. Patience: The Virtue of Successful Traders Patience is a virtue in forex trading. Traders should avoid the temptation to jump into trades too quickly or exit them too soon. Impatience can lead to costly mistakes, such as entering trades that don't meet the trader's criteria or closing profitable positions too early. By exercising patience and waiting for the right opportunities, traders can improve their chances of success. Execution: Putting Theory into Practice Executing trades properly is essential for success in forex trading. Traders should use stop-loss orders, position sizing, and risk management strategies to protect their capital and maximize their profits. They should also be aware of the potential impact of slippage, which occurs when the price at which a trade is executed differs from
Education
by Hartiva
Bull Market Booming: Top Tips to Maximize Your Investment Gains!It appears that a bull market has taken hold in the US market, as evidenced by the remarkable rise of the S&P 500 index, surging over 20% from its October lows. Adding to this favorable outlook, the Federal Reserve has finally implemented a much-anticipated pause in the cycle of interest rate hikes. With the shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, investors are eagerly looking for avenues to leverage this upward trend and make the most of the prevailing conditions. Today, we will delve into the various factors that indicate the arrival of a bull market, along with strategies and invaluable tips to help you seize the opportunities presented by this favorable market scenario. What Lies Behind All This Optimism? The current wave of optimism in the market and the emergence of a new bull market can be attributed to several significant factors that are often overlooked or avoided in discussions. One key reason behind this optimism is the remarkable earnings results reported by companies. Investors are celebrating the fact that companies are no longer delivering mediocre performance. Instead, they are exceeding expectations and showcasing strong growth. This shift in mindset from accepting average results to embracing a "glass-half-full" outlook is driven by the realization that companies are meeting and even surpassing the high growth expectations set for them. This surge in optimism is fueled by the confidence that companies have proven their ability to generate substantial earnings and capitalize on market opportunities. Investors are therefore responding by driving up the market and contributing to the overall bullish sentiment. It is important to acknowledge and consider this fundamental aspect when discussing the reasons behind the current optimism and the substantial year-to-date increases observed in the market. The impressive performance of companies and their ability to meet or exceed growth expectations have played a vital role in shaping the current bullish market sentiment. S&P 500 daily chart The positive forward guidance provided by CEOs further reinforces the current optimism in the market, as it signals their increased confidence in navigating challenges, particularly those posed by inflation. A notable example of this trend can be seen in Nvidia's Q1 earnings report, which highlighted the company's upwardly revised guidance. This adjustment reflects the strong demand for AI technologies that power applications at major industry players such as Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Nvidia's projected revenue of $11 billion for Q2 significantly surpassed the estimates put forth by Wall Street analysts. This impressive figure serves as tangible evidence that the AI craze is more than just hype. The surge in demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) from both established tech giants and startups as they develop their AI platforms has been a key driver behind Nvidia's remarkable performance. As a result, the company's shares experienced a staggering 26% surge, propelling Nvidia's market value to an extraordinary $1 trillion. This achievement places Nvidia among the elite group of publicly traded US companies that have reached this milestone, joining the ranks of industry giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, and Amazon. The significance of Nvidia's market value milestone further solidifies the notion that the demand for AI technologies is substantial and here to stay, providing a strong foundation for the ongoing bull market in the US market. Tesla stock daily chart Tesla has also emerged as a significant player worth noting in the current market landscape. The company has experienced a remarkable turnaround, with its stock value surging by an impressive 70% over a six-month period, including a notable 53% increase in the past month alone. This is a noteworthy development, considering that Tesla had suffered a substantial loss of around two-thirds of its value in 2022. The strategic and timely price cuts implemented by Tesla, although initially perplexing to some, are now proving to provide the company with a potential market share advantage. These price adjustments have contributed to the renewed interest and confidence in Tesla, ultimately fueling its recent resurgence. As the Q1 reporting cycle has concluded, the results reveal a strong performance for tech stocks in the latter half of the year. This surge can be attributed to the prevailing optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's approach to nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. The anticipation of higher interest rates, coupled with concerns of slower economic growth and softer labor market conditions, has contributed to a decline in inflation. Surprisingly, the adverse effects that were initially expected to impact households and businesses have been less severe than initially predicted. Furthermore, with the concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling alleviated and the mitigation of inflation risks, the overall market sentiment has undergone a transformation from bearish to bullish. This shift in sentiment is likely to continue, with stocks, particularly mega-cap tech companies like Tesla, expected to maintain strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. Overall, Tesla's impressive turnaround and the positive performance of tech stocks exemplify the overall market's optimistic outlook, driven by a combination of factors such as Federal Reserve actions, inflation dynamics, and improved market conditions. Top Bull Market Stocks to Consider Buying Now: Tesla (TSLA) This is not financial advice. Indeed, Tesla's influence extends beyond its position as a dominant player in the electric vehicle (EV) market. The company's offerings go beyond vehicles and encompass solar and energy storage solutions. Tesla's plans to establish a factory in Shanghai for manufacturing Megapack batteries further solidify its position as a leader in the renewable energy sector. These batteries play a crucial role in storing renewable energy, alleviating strain on the grid during peak hours, and promoting a more sustainable energy ecosystem. While Tesla's growth will be primarily driven by its vehicle production, the company's positive outlook is reinforced by upcoming price cuts and the launch of new products such as the highly anticipated Cybertruck and Semi. These product expansions contribute to the company's overall growth potential and indicate its commitment to innovation and diversification within the EV market. Despite some mixed recent financial results, investing in Tesla during the current bullish market phase is seen by many as a reasonable bet on the company's potential to become the world's largest automaker. Tesla's strong market presence, technological advancements, and commitment to sustainability have garnered significant investor confidence and positioned the company for continued success in the evolving automotive and renewable energy sectors. Alphabet (GOOGL) Alphabet stock daily chart Google, with a staggering market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, stands as one of the most prominent names in the business world. It secures its place among the top five most valuable companies globally and boasts a widely recognized and esteemed brand. Google remains at the forefront of groundbreaking advancements in various technological spheres, including mobile technology, cloud services, data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and virtual reality. These innovative developments continue to drive the company's success and shape its competitive edge. Notably, a significant portion of Google's revenue stems from its dominance in internet advertising, a lucrative sector that contributes substantially to its financial performance. The active integration of AI within Google's operations serves as a strong catalyst for the growth of its shares. As AI technology becomes increasingly prevalent, it expands the addressable market for Google, creating new avenues for growth and revenue generation. The global corporate AI market, in which Google actively participates, is projected to experience a remarkable annual growth rate of 34.1% until 2030. This highlights the immense potential and opportunities that lie ahead for Google as it leverages AI capabilities to propel its business forward. With its continuous pursuit of technological innovation and a diversified revenue stream, Google remains a formidable force in the industry, poised for sustained growth and influence in the years to come. Intel (INTC) Intel stock Monthly chart The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has created a surge in demand for chips, leading to notable market movements for prominent AI chip manufacturers. Both Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA have experienced significant share price increases since the start of 2023, capitalizing on the growing enthusiasm surrounding AI advancements. In light of this trend, chipmaker Intel is also seeking to position itself as a key player in the AI chip market. Intel has been engaged in negotiations for a strategic initial public offering (IPO) investment with Arm, a renowned British chipmaker. This move follows NVIDIA's previous unsuccessful attempt to acquire Arm. By exploring this potential partnership, Intel aims to solidify its position in the AI chip sector and leverage Arm's expertise and technology to enhance its own capabilities. The negotiations highlight the fierce competition among chipmakers to secure a prominent position in the rapidly expanding AI market. As the race for AI chip dominance intensifies, these developments demonstrate the strategic moves undertaken by major players in the industry to stay ahead in the evolving landscape of AI technology. The outcome of these negotiations will undoubtedly have implications for the future trajectory of the AI chip market and the competitive dynamics among key players such as AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel. Strategies For Investing In A Bull Market If we are indeed in the early stages of a new bull market, it's crucial to have strategies in place to make the most of rising stock prices. Here are four strategies to consider: 1 ) Diversification and Asset Allocation: Review your asset allocation to ensure you have sufficient exposure to stocks to benefit from the bull market. Consider rebalancing your portfolio by reducing your allocation to bonds and cash while increasing your allocation to equities. However, exercise caution and remain aware that market conditions can change rapidly. Don't assume that stocks will only go up from here. Maintain a well-balanced portfolio that includes a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash. If you're uncertain about the ideal mix, the Rule of 110 suggests subtracting your age from 110 to determine the percentage of your portfolio to allocate to stocks. 2 ) Focus on Growth Stocks and Sectors: In a bull market, growth stocks and sectors tend to perform well. Look for innovative companies that leverage technology to create efficiencies or address global challenges. Industries experiencing rapid growth in 2023 include CBD product manufacturing, 3D printing, solar power, and artificial intelligence. Remember that growth stocks offer higher return potential but also come with increased risk compared to more established companies. 3 ) Consider Value Investing: Value stocks are equities that appear undervalued relative to their intrinsic value. They may be trading at lower prices due to investor overreactions or a market environment that favors faster-growing assets. In a strong bull market, value stocks may lag as investors favor growth assets. However, for patient, long-term investors, this presents a buying opportunity. Value stocks often shine during bear markets and may offer dividend payments. Utilize the bull market to increase your holdings of value stocks, which can act as a buffer during the next bear market while providing dividend income. 4 ) Dollar-Cost Averaging: Implement a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), where you invest a fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of market fluctuations. For example, invest $400 on the same day each month instead of trying to strategically time the market. DCA helps manage the volatility often seen in the early stages of a bull market. By investing consistently, you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. This approach lowers your average cost basis over time and minimizes the impact of short-term market fluctuations. Remember that these strategies should be tailored to your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. It's advisable to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance before making any significant investment decisions. Risks To Be Aware Of In A Bull Market While bull markets can present favorable opportunities, it's crucial to be aware of potential risks and pitfalls. Here are three significant risks to consider: 1 ) Overconfidence and Speculation: During a bull market, there is a tendency for investors to become overconfident and take on higher levels of risk. This can lead to speculative investing, where investors chase after high-risk, high-reward opportunities. However, when the bull market eventually ends, these speculative investments may experience substantial losses. It's important to maintain a balanced approach to investing and avoid excessive risk-taking, as downturns can permanently impact the outlook for smaller, less established companies. 2 ) Market Bubble: Bull markets can sometimes give rise to market bubbles, where stock prices become significantly detached from their underlying value. This occurs when investors, driven by excessive optimism, push prices to unsustainable levels. While market bubbles can provide opportunities for gains in the short term, they also carry the risk of a sudden correction or crash. Once the bubble bursts, panic can set in, causing a rapid decline in stock prices and the onset of a new bear market. It's essential to remain cautious and be aware of signs of excessive market exuberance. 3 ) Impact of Interest Rates and Inflation: The interplay between interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions can influence the trajectory of a bull market. Changes in interest rates by central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, can impact borrowing costs and corporate profitability. Additionally, shifts in inflation levels can affect consumer spending power and overall economic growth. Uncertainties regarding future interest rate hikes or spikes in inflation can introduce volatility and potentially dampen or reverse a bull market. It's important to monitor economic indicators and the actions of central banks to gauge their potential impact on market conditions. It's worth noting that predicting the specific outcomes of these factors in the coming months or years is challenging. The key is to remain vigilant, maintain a diversified portfolio, and consider the long-term perspective when making investment decisions. Consulting with a financial advisor can provide valuable guidance in navigating the risks associated with a bull market. Tips For Benefitiing From A Bull Market To successfully navigate a bull market and maximize your investment potential, it's important to consider the following strategies: 1 ) Stay Disciplined: Maintaining discipline is crucial in avoiding excessive risk-taking and speculative behavior. Define your investing parameters and process, and stick to them. Establish clear criteria for the types of investments you're willing to make and the level of risk you're comfortable with. Evaluate any exceptions carefully and have a clear exit plan for more speculative assets. By staying disciplined, you can mitigate the risks associated with overaggressive investing and ensure a more measured approach to capitalizing on the bull market. 2 ) Think Long-Term: Adopting a long-term perspective is key to protecting your investments from short-term market fluctuations and potential downturns. While it can be tempting to make impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements, it's important to focus on your long-term financial goals. Allocate a portion of your portfolio to cash reserves to cover emergencies or major purchases, so you don't need to tap into your investment accounts during market volatility. This long-term outlook allows you to weather market cycles and take advantage of opportunities that may arise, while also providing stability and peace of mind. 3 ) Rebalance Regularly: Bull markets can lead to overexposure to stocks as their value appreciates. Regularly rebalancing your portfolio helps maintain your desired asset allocation. For example, if your target allocation is 70% equities and 30% bonds and cash, and stocks have outperformed, your allocation may shift to 75% stocks and 25% bonds and cash. By periodically selling stocks and purchasing bonds, you can restore your desired asset allocation and lock in some profits from the bull market. Rebalancing also helps manage risk by ensuring that your portfolio remains aligned with your risk tolerance and investment objectives. 4 ) Seek Professional Advice: Each individual's financial situation is unique, and it's important to consider your circumstances when implementing investment strategies. Regularly review your investment plan and consult with a financial professional to ensure it remains aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. A financial advisor can provide personalized guidance based on your specific situation, help you navigate market trends, and offer insights on potential investment opportunities. They can also assist in assessing the performance of your portfolio and making adjustments as needed. By following these strategies, you can position yourself to make informed investment decisions, manage risk, and capitalize on the opportunities presented by a bull market. However, it's important to remember that investing involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Stay informed, monitor market conditions, and be prepared to adjust your strategies as needed. Conclusion: As the bull market gains momentum, it is essential for investors to be well-prepared and make informed decisions. Employing various strategies such as diversification and asset allocation, emphasizing growth stocks and sectors, considering value investing, and implementing dollar-cost averaging can significantly enhance one's ability to navigate the market effectively. Nevertheless, it is crucial to remain cautious of potential risks, including overconfidence, market bubbles, and the influence of interest rates and inflation. To maximize gains during the bull market while minimizing potential risks, it is vital to maintain discipline, adopt a long-term perspective, regularly rebalance portfolios, and seek professional advice. It is important to note that individual circumstances vary, thus investment strategies should be tailored to align with personal financial goals and risk tolerance.
Education
by FOREXN1
14
Why you DID NOT take the trade - 4 REASONSSo you never took a trade again? This could be where the problems are rising. It’s also where you are probably missing out on what could help take your portfolio out of the drawdown. And sometimes, despite favourable market conditions, you may find yourself still hesitating to enter a trade. I want to explore four common reasons why traders fail to take the trade and how to overcome them. #1: The market moved too much One of the most common reasons traders hesitate to take the trade is that… The market has already moved significantly, and they fear they have missed the opportunity. However, it’s important to remember that the market is constantly in motion. The train will move and there is always an opportune moment to get into a trade. A sound trading strategy should take into account different market conditions, including volatile ones, and provide clear entry and exit points. If the market lines up despite how high or low it’s gone. Just take the trade. #2: You’re scared to lose the trade FOLO or Fear Of Losing Out is another common reason traders hesitate to enter a trade. While it’s natural to want to avoid losses. It’s important to remember that trading involves risk, and losses are inevitable. A sound risk management strategy, including setting stop-loss orders and managing position size, can help you to minimize potential losses and build confidence in entering a trade. #3: Too much money to spend Traders may also hesitate to enter a trade if they feel they have too much money to spend. Take oil for example. Most market markets (brokers) offer you to buy Brent crude but you have to buy 100 contracts as a minimum. In this case, it MIGHT be too much money to spend. Not because of how much of your portfolio you’re using up, but also because the risk might outweigh 2% of your portfolio. Then you get other markets like the JSE ALMI 40, where you’ll need to spend around R9,000 to enter a trade. It sounds like a lot (especially if your portfolio is less than 10,000. But, that’s why one should start with a larger minimum account size. I started with R30,000 in 2003 and even then it was too little to grow into a substantial amount. Then when it grew to the first R150,000, I started feeling comfortable with the portfolio size and it opened more opportunities to trade additional markets. So, that’s why if you want to take trading seriously, you got to cough up the cash into your portfolio and trade accordingly to strict money and reward management. #4: No trust in the system yet This one is a given and the most abundant reason to NOT take a trade. You might hesitate to enter a trade if you don’t have faith or confidence in your trading strategy or system. In this case, it’s essential to go back, review and test the strategy, ensuring it aligns with personal trading goals and is backed by sound research and analysis. When you build trust in a trading system, and you take the time and patience to see the good and the bad, then your confidence will grow. And that will be an essential step towards taking more trades to help grow your portfolio. Why don’t you take trades when you should? Is it because: You don’t trust your system You’re scared to lose money You don’t trust certain markets You don’t have enough money to trade different instruments You’re not ready with your strategy You don’t have confidence with yourself, discipline and emotions yet? Find them, harness them, work on them and you might have your answer.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Mastering the Mental Game of Trading-THIS ONE FOR THE BOYZTrading is 99.98% mental and 1% physical. Stay focused, disciplined, and immune to the influence of FUD and FOMO to maximize your trading success. Trading is not for the faint of heart! It requires a strong mindset, unwavering discipline, and the ability to navigate the treacherous waters of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and FOMO (fear of missing out). Here are some key insights to help you master the mental game of trading and stay on top of your game! 💪 1️⃣ Stick to Your Plan: A well-defined trading plan is your guiding light in the chaos of the market. It helps you make rational decisions and avoid impulsive moves driven by emotions. Trust your plan and resist the temptation to deviate from it. 2️⃣ Manage Your Emotions: Emotions can cloud judgment and lead to irrational decisions. Stay calm, composed, and unswayed by the market noise. Don't let FUD and FOMO derail your trading strategy. Embrace a disciplined approach and separate emotions from your trading decisions. 3️⃣ Timing is Key: Recognize that there are different trading opportunities in different market conditions. Some days are meant for day trading, while others are for accumulating positions. Be mindful of key levels and choose your entry and exit points wisely. Patience and timing are crucial. 4️⃣ Mind Over Bag: Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Focus on long-term gains and building a strong position rather than chasing quick profits. Avoid being swayed by influencers or external factors that can disrupt your game plan. Keep your eye on the bigger picture. 5️⃣ Stop Loss Strategy: While stop losses are essential risk management tools, they need to be used judiciously. Tight stop losses at critical levels may lead to premature liquidation. Assess the market conditions and adjust your stop losses accordingly. Let your trades breathe within reasonable risk parameters. Remember, success in trading stems from a disciplined mindset, adherence to your plan, and the ability to overcome emotional impulses. Build your skills, stay focused, and enjoy the journey of becoming a master trader! 🚀💰
Education
by bagboybillionaire
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of TrendA Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of Trend: To Peek or Not to Peek “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” - Ed Seykota Trend analysis lies at the core of technical analysis. Modern technical analysis derived from Dow Theory. In turn, Dow Theory emphasized the nature and importance of trends and their constituent parts and degrees. Many may recall Dow’s analogy of different trend degrees: the tide (primary trend), waves (secondary trend), and ripples on the waves (minor / short-term trend). Technical analysis includes many other concepts within its scope. But within technical analysis broadly, the primary focus remains the trend structure. Before considering trends, it may help to discuss the distinction broadly between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. A. Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis Top traders and market experts have taken each side in the debate over whether technical or fundamental analysis has the greatest efficacy. Some have straddled the line, preferring a combination of the two. Some consider technical analysis to be not only superior but also relatively straightforward and efficient compared to other types of analysis, such as fundamental analysis or positioning analysis.FN1 Positioning analysis is beyond the scope of this post and is briefly explained in the first footnote. Jim Rogers, a famous investor who managed a reportedly very successful fund with George Soros in the 1970s, and who had had many accurate forecasts, expressed strong disdain for technical analysis—he once told Jack Schwager, “I haven’t met a rich technician.” But some of the greatest traders and market experts stand on the other side of this debate. For example, Ed Seykota is a trader of great renown included in Schwager’s 1993 Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders. Seykota chose the technical-analysis camp, giving the most weight to trends, chart patterns and good entries and exits. He once described markets in a way that evokes Charles Dow’s wave analogy: If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when its coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right. A former portfolio manager for Fidelity Management who founded several other research and investment firms, David Lundgren, described how he came to follow the principles of technical analysis even though he still expressed great value for fundamental analysis. From an interview included in a 2021 Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, Lundgren shared some of his experiences and insights on this topic. In his view, fundamentals can matter significantly over the long term especially as to stocks. But Lundgren’s most outstanding remarks in this interview distinguished between these two conceptual approaches to financial markets. He aptly characterized fundamental analysis as being based on the view that the “market is wrong.” In other words, the valuations drawn from a publicly traded company’s financial statements (e.g., P/E ratio, enterprise value, book value) assume the market is “overestimating or underestimating value” and that the price should be above / below the current market price. By contrast, he said technical analysis assumes the contrary view that the market is actually right in its current price and price trend. The critical distinction between technical analysis and fundamental analysis boils down to ego, according to Lundgren, because pure technical analysis “accepts the verdict of the market” whereas pure fundamental analysis “involves hundreds of hours developing an opinion of what is attractive and often with the verdict of the market.” Much ink has and will be spilled on whether price discounts everything, and if so, how fast and efficiently (Charles Dow Theory). In any case, fundamental, technical and positioning modes of analysis are not mutually exclusive. B. Whether to Consider Data outside the Confines of Trend Since last year’s October 2022 lows in the S&P 500 (SPX) and other major US indices, the current equity market uptrend has been challenging and bewildering to many investors, traders and analysts. It has been especially difficult to comprehend for those who are keenly aware of the broader financial and macroeconomic environment, which includes purportedly tight monetary policy and quantitative tightening (reducing Treasury securities off the Fed’s balance sheet) as well as stubborn core inflation. Such an environment broadly speaking remains unfavorable to equities for the most part.FN2 But trends do not always move in the most sensible direction, and they do not always align consistently with the macroeconomic evidence. Sentiment or even positioning, discussed briefly in the first footnote, can affect the trend even when it may run counter to the macroeconomic evidence. And trends can stretch into an overbought or oversold condition longer than anyone expects, a principle captured by the old aphorism, attributed to John Maynard Keynes, that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Exhaustion doesn’t require a 180-degree turn but often appears more like a process, especially at market tops given the long-only nature of most equity capital. Pure trend followers, who supposedly consider only the technical trend-based evidence, may not care whether the trend makes sense. Indeed, they place their stops and align their trades / investments in accordance with one of many trend-based strategies. And this narrowed focus may be very helpful and exceedingly profitable at times. A recent example is the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), or even some large or mega-cap tech names like AAPL, MSFT, META, and NVDA. These indices and securities could have rewarded narrowly focused trend-followers quite well on daily and weekly time frames over the past eight months, especially if discipline was used to enter positions at major uptrend supports with stops moved to breakeven or higher along the way. Such trend traders and investors may be busily counting their profits rather than being distracted with inverted yield curves and FOMC policy statements. The question becomes whether one may look outside the trend (or technical analysis generally). This issue likely generates pages of academic argument and hours of financial media debates between experts. And it may be something for all traders to ponder for a bit. Given how much of an influence positioning has developed on equity markets over time, as well as central-bank quantitative tightening or quantitative easing, it seems important to consider data from such sources. Such data may also include trend information that affects trends in everything else. For example, trends in the price of commodities may tell us about inflation and likelihood of tighter monetary policy / interest rate hikes by a central bank. And trends in the money supply may strengthen or weaken the case for a current trend in equities. C. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking beyond the Trend In this author’s view, it is not necessarily foolish or improper to sneak a peek or a long thoughtful gaze, outside a rigid trend-based framework. As with everything in life and trading, costs and benefits must be weighed. The biggest drawback to going outside the confines of trend is the tendency of many traders to try to consider far too much. Our brains are only capable of processing so much at a given time. Focusing on too much data can cause dilute confidence, weaken resolve, and obfuscate trends. In addition, by the time a trader considers a macroeconomic data point, computerized systems likely have informed all the largest institutional players, or even algorithmic or high-frequency traders, who acted on it before you even had a chance to review its implications. And the market’s reaction to non-technical data points is not always intuitive. But if one can manage understanding additional data outside the trend/price framework, one might find benefit in learning and following data on yield curves, bond-market dynamics, Fed Funds rates, macroeconomic data, inflationary measures, and volatility gauges can inform one’s outlook in useful ways. The key here is to avoid repeatedly (and blindly) fighting the trend in price—even if one fights that trend with some of the most rational, reasonable and persuasive arguments based on overwhelming macroeconomic, volatility, sentiment, positioning, or other such evidence as to why price should be going the opposite way. In short, this is the important general rule for trend-based systems—make the trend your friend until the end when it bends.FN3 D. Practical Application and Hypotheticals Just because one should make friends with the trend does not warrant chasing extended trends (see FN3), unless the trader or investor has developed particular expertise in momentum trading, and even then, caution is greatly warranted. Every trend has its proper entries for the time frame involved. Uptrends necessarily require countertrend retracements to support whether defined as an anchored VWAP, key moving average, Fibonacci retracement, upward trendline, or standard-deviation based measures such as linear regression or Bollinger Bands. Technically, this is not peeking outside the trend, but rather it merely considers evidence of trend exhaustion and the likelihood of mean reversion. Further, a trend-based framework should in fact include considering higher time frame trends such as a monthly chart where each price bar represents one month of price data. One of this author’s collaborators, @SPY_Master, has performed some excellent trend-based analysis on timeframes as high as monthly, quarterly (even yearly bars at times). It is quite common, moreover, for higher-degree trends to move in the opposite direction as lower-degree trends, such as during a monthly or quarterly uptrend experiencing a corrective retracement to trend support that lasts for days or weeks. Or the hourly trend can move against the daily / weekly trend, frequently does so whenever a countertrend retracement to trend support occurs. Can one technically “fight the trend” merely by preferring a higher degree time-frame trend when it conflicts with a shorter one? The answer depends on one’s time frame, risk tolerance, position size, and rationale. In addition, trends involving a particular stock, index, or other security can be evaluated based on their relative strength, i.e., as a ratio of the subject stock, index or security to another stock, index, security or data series. The S&P 500 can be compared to the Nasdaq 100 or 10-year Treasures. Or BITSTAMP:ETHUSD can be charted as a ratio to another cryptocurrency. This author would argue that such metrics can provide useful trend-based insights even though they incorporate data that is technically beyond the scope of trend. Below are a couple such relative-strength charts that arguably fall within trend-analysis despite relying on data that would normally be considered outside of a price trend's scope: Example 1 shows this author's relative strength chart of NASDAQ:AAPL to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold). This is a very long-term chart showing the outperformance trend in AAPL over two decades to the precious medal and commodity Gold. Example 2 shows @SPY_Master's relative-strength chart of NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI-tech stock into which everyone's distant relatives are now inquiring after its meteoric rise from 2022 bear-market depths. The chart is a relative-strength chart of the ratio of NVDA to the 10-Year Treasury note, which aptly shows how overvalued NVDA is relative to a risk-free asset. It appears far too extended above the risk-free asset in terms of standard deviation on a linear regression-based model shown here. (Note that yields and bonds move inversely, so where an asset outperforms a risk-free bond, it means that the asset is extended given the level of yields produced by that bond.) Credit: SPY_Master (used with permission) To conclude, consider the following hypothetical scenarios as a thought experiment. Assume a stock has a monthly or quarterly chart that is extended multiple deviations above the mean (or multiple deviations as a ratio of its price to the money supply). NVDA presents a good case study for these concepts. Scenario A: A person entered the position at $290 and took profits on this stock at $405, preferring to exercise caution and avoid this stock as a long-term investment. Scenario B: A hedge fund with a 150-page report of deep research on NVDA and the macroeconomic backdrop has a 10-year time horizon and begins scaling into a short position to anticipate a mean reversion at the higher degrees of trend (monthly, quarterly time frames). The hedge fund will add one quarter at $450, another quarter position at $500, and the final two quarters between $500 and $600 if reached. Should either scenario be deemed fighting the trend? Is either scenario ill-advised use of capital? Any answers are welcome in the comments provided respectful towards others. FN1 This footnote helps explain some basics of fundamental and positioning analysis. Beyond this brief explanation, this article will defer to other educational experts for a more thorough explanation of these three modes of financial analysis. Fundamental analysis for equity indices like SP:SPX or NASDAQ:NDX considers macroeconomic data and metrics that focus on an economy’s growth (e.g., GDP), price-stability / inflation (CPI, PCE, PPI), consumption, real estate, money supply, central-bank rate policies, central-bank QE or QT, trade deficits, and more. Fundamental analysis as to individual stocks involves the use of financial data such as revenue, earnings per share, cost of goods sold, capital expenditures, and other data available from a public company’s certified financial statements, as well as financial ratios relying on such data, e.g., earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-sales ratios (P/S) and liquidity ratios (current ratio). In the US and other major economies, securities rules mandate that companies file full disclosure of their financial health, certified by CEOs and CFOs, in annual reports (10-K and quarterly reports (10-Q) on an ongoing basis. Positioning analysis looks at a complex array of data that covers institutional market positioning and order flows for stocks, options, indices, commodities and futures. It also looks at increasingly important dealer hedging flows (volume and open interest) in options markets and the effect of implied volatility and time on such flows. It can include such insights as net positioning on each side of a given futures market or index by hedgers and speculators. This is an area where expert commentary is helpful to learn even the basics. FN2 Yet the central-bank and US Treasury actions behind the scenes may have masked, or even partially or wholly offset, tight Fed interest rate and monetary policy at times during the first half of 2023. For example, many financial publications and analysts discussed the US Treasury’s accounting maneuvers intended to prolong its borrowing authority in light of the debt-ceiling standoff. Commentary also noted that such maneuvering, draining the TGA account (the US Treasury’s “checking account” held at the Federal Reserve), injected money / liquidity into the financial system, which likely muted Fed’s efforts to tighten policy in the short-term while those actions were ongoing. FN3 But as is often the case with a general rule, the exceptions can dilute the rule somewhat. One prominent exception is mean-reversion analysis / trading systems. In addition, some traders and institutions are trend-reversal traders—a high risk, high reward type approach that requires immaculate risk management, timing, precision and patience, often scaling into and out of massive positions that cannot be acquired or unloaded in a period of days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SquishTrade
7
Learn The Market Volatility | The Double-Edged Sword Have you ever wondered why the certain trading instruments are very rapid while some our extremely slow and boring? In this educational article, we will discuss the market volatility, how is it measured and how can it be applied for making smart trading and investing decisions. 📚 First, let's start with the definition. Market volatility is a degree of a fluctuation of the price of a financial instrument over a certain period of time. High volatility reflects quick and significant rises and falls on the market, while low volatility implies that the price moves slowly and steadily. High volatility makes it harder for the traders and investors to predict the future direction of the market, but also may bring substantial gains. On the other hand, a low volatility market is much easier to predict, but the potential returns are more modest. The chart on the left is the perfect example of a volatile market. While the chart on the right is a low volatility market. 📰 The main causes of volatility are economic and geopolitical events. Political and economic instability, wars and natural disasters can affect the behavior of the market participants, causing the chaotic, irrational market movements. On the other hand, the absence of the news and the relative stability are the main sources of a low volatility. Here is the example, how the Covid pandemic affected GBPUSD pair. The market was falling in a very rapid face in untypical manner, being driven by the panic and fear. But how the newbie trader can measure the volatility of the market? The main stream way is to apply ATR indicator, but, working with hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that for them such a method is complicated. 📏 The simplest way to assess the volatility of the market is to analyze the price action and candlesticks. The main element of the volatile market is occasional appearance of large candlestick bars - the ones that have at least 4 times bigger range than the average candles. Sudden price moves up and down are one more indicator of high volatility. They signify important shifts in the supply and demand of a particular asset. Take a look at a price action and candlesticks on Bitcoin. The market moves in zigzags, forming high momentum bullish and bearish candles. These are the indicators of high volatility. 🛑 For traders who just started their trading journey, high volatility is the red flag. Acting rapidly, such instruments require constant monitoring and attention. Moreover, such markets require a high level of experience in stop loss placement because one single high momentum candle can easily hit the stop loss and then return to entry level. Alternatively, trading a low volatility market can be extremely boring because most of the time it barely moves. The best solution is to look for the market where the volatility is average, where the market moves but on a reasonable scale. Volatility assessment plays a critical role in your success in trading. Know in advance, the degree of a volatility that you can tolerate and the one that you should avoid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
12
#TradingViewPAY HOW TO EARN 💲💲 BY BECOME THE BEST AUTHOR ON TVGet rewarded for your ideas and scripts! A month earlier, on the 20th of May, Tradingview introduced its new Rewards Program . Sharing is powerful, right!? The TradingView community thrives on fantastic members who share their knowledge, experience, successes and sometimes even their failures. Interaction, open discussion and self-expression are the keys to understanding. In the spirit of sharing, the TradingView team, believing it is fair that outstanding contributions are rewarded, has decided to thank their dedicated contributors. The TradingView Wizards program was recently launched to bring out the real wizards. Inspired by this, TradingView has also launched a new pilot program that rewards authors whose ideas and scripts appear in the Editors' Choice section. In the event that your idea or scenario becomes an Editors' Choice, your work will not only be featured to the entire TradingView community, but you will also receive a cool $100! If several of your publications are selected during the month, you will be charged for each. Learn more about the program and its terms and conditions in this Help Center article . This pilot program is just the first step towards content monetization. TradingView promises to keep adding new ways to motivate great creators to enrich the community. At the first stage, authors are rewarded for those ideas and scenarios that have become "Editor's Choice" in the international part of the TradingView community (only in English). TradingView promises to tweak the features of the program and aspects of the program are subject to change as improvements are made to benefit our community! I must confess on my own behalf that the TradingView Editors Team has A REALLY VERY GOOD TASTE. For all the time I spent on the TradingView website (that is almost eight years), I have become the author of more than 300 publications, and the best of them have rightfully become to an "Editors' Choice" column. And so, just literally two months earlier, in April 2023, two of my publications became "Editor's Choice" again, in the international part of the TradingView community (in English). The first one is 😀 SVB Crisis Is Over?! What S&P500 and VIX Are Talking About was dedicated to the US S&P500 index SP:SPX , while the market began to show the first signs that the Silicon Valley banking crisis was over. More details can be found on the publication page . In the second publication - Occidental Petroleum Corp.: Bullish Bias. Continuation I've considered with technical aspects and opportunities of Value Investment Assets. Incl. NYSE:OXY - one of the legendary 92-year-old American investor Warren Buffett favorites, Occidental Petroleum corp. More details can be found on the publication page . While expressing many words of gratitude to the TradingView team, I must admit that the EP selection of mentioned above publications in April to the "Editor's Choice" was a pleasant surprise for me. As well as the launch of the #TradingViewPAY motivational Program a month later, the effect of which is extended to all the ideas and scenarios that have become "Editor's Choice" starting from the second quarter of 2023! Proves and Screenshots!? - Yes, please! Everything is 100 DOLLARS working! ✨💖 Dare you too! Post your best ideas and scripts! And may the reward find the best of you! -- Watch first, then share! TradingView FEAT Pandorra 💖
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Pandorra
WHAT IS ChoCH AND HOW TO USE ITChoCH in trading is a change of sentiment (change of character) in trading order blocks. ✴️ Definition The ChoCh (change of character) is a change of sentiment in the market. That is, the change in the nature of the movement of the market from bullish to bearish or vice versa. This term is used in technical analysis strategies of order block trading. It is used by traders in the forex market, as well as in the cryptocurrency market. Choch is also known as a reversal when the price fails to form a new higher high or lower low. It then breaks the pattern and starts moving in a different direction. To form a Choch using the smart money concept on a chart in a downtrend, you must as shown above: 1.Gradually decreasing highs and lows of the bearish trend. 2. The last maximum price update. It is at this point that a change in sentiment is formed. We will go over the basics of Choch trading and the main advantages of trading. ✴️ Combination of timeframes on Forex The best entry points are formed when combining two timeframes: Keep in mind that a change in structure does not always involve a global change in market trend. 1. On the higher timeframe the order block is formed as support or resistance level, in the zone of which the reversal is looked for. This is H1, H4 or D1 time frame. 2. The lower timeframe is used to identify the change of character and entry on the trade signal after the Order Block test. On the mt4 chart this looks like the example, where the order block is highlighted by a rectangular range below. ✴️ How to trade Let's analyze EURUSD recent trading opportunity for the change of the market movement. The first one shows that a bos (break of structure) was formed after the choch. The buy position took place when the chart returned to the order block area. The next reversal pattern is relevant in determining the liquidity zone, where there are the stop losses of the crowd of traders. The difference between the previous pattern is that the price tends to break the liquidity zone after the bos. Buying is performed on the order block at the very minimum of the chart. ✴️ Conclusion Choch in trading allows the trader to determine the best reversal point with a high-risk profit ratio. Often the values reach 1k5 or more. The change of mood is easy to identify even for beginners in Forex trading on smart money. At the same time, its success rate reaches 60 percent.
Education
by DeGRAM
12
The Gold Standard and the Global Monetary SystemI. Introduction The history of international monetary systems has been a story of constant evolution. Of the many systems that have been used over the centuries, the Gold Standard stands out for its longevity and its critical role in shaping the world's economic landscape. This essay will first discuss the Gold Standard, then delve into President Richard Nixon's monumental decision to sever the tie between the U.S. dollar and gold, known as the 'Nixon Shock.' This discussion will segue into the subsequent transformation of the global monetary system, culminating in an analysis of our present-day monetary era. II. The Gold Standard Era The Gold Standard, which flourished between the late 19th century and the early 20th century, was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly linked to gold. Each country promised to convert its currency into a fixed amount of gold upon demand. This system provided a stability that fostered international trade and investment, as it offered predictability of exchange rates and a constraint on inflation. However, it also meant that national monetary policies were subordinated to the need to maintain gold parity, thereby constraining a government's ability to respond to domestic economic conditions. III. Nixon's Depreciation and the End of the Gold Standard In 1971, amidst growing economic pressures, President Richard Nixon declared that the United States would no longer exchange gold for U.S. dollars held in foreign reserves, effectively ending the Gold Standard. This move was initially designed as a temporary measure to protect U.S. gold reserves, which were dwindling due to persistent trade deficits. However, the 'Nixon Shock' proved to be a permanent shift in international monetary policy. Nixon's move unshackled the U.S. dollar (and other global currencies) from the constraints of gold, allowing for more flexible monetary policies. This change allowed governments to respond more efficiently to economic downturns by manipulating the money supply. Yet, it also introduced a new era of exchange rate volatility and inflation risk, challenges that economies continue to grapple with today. IV. The Transformation of the Global Monetary System The end of the Gold Standard marked the transition to the era of fiat money—currency that is backed by the full faith and trust in the government that issues it, rather than a physical commodity like gold. Fiat money systems have provided governments with greater flexibility to manage economic conditions through monetary policy, as they can adjust the money supply to influence interest rates, manage inflation, stimulate growth, or address economic crises. However, the reliance on faith and trust in the government has also led to episodes of hyperinflation and economic crises in countries where that faith was misplaced or abused. V. The Present-day Monetary Era In the current monetary era, central banks, like the Federal Reserve in the U.S., use open market operations and other monetary policy tools to control the money supply and influence economic conditions. Decoupling from gold has also facilitated the rise of digital currencies and novel monetary ideas like cryptocurrency, reshaping our understanding of money and value. However, this freedom has its downsides; the absence of a physical constraint like gold can lead to fears about runaway inflation, especially in times of significant increases in the money supply, such as the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. VI. Conclusion The Gold Standard, Nixon's Shock, and the transformation of the global monetary system offer key insights into the strengths and weaknesses of different monetary systems. While the Gold Standard provided a stability that fostered international trade, it limited the ability of governments to respond to domestic economic conditions. The Nixon Shock and the transition to a fiat money system have provided greater flexibility, but also introduced new challenges in terms of inflation risk and exchange rate volatility. As we navigate our present-day monetary era, it is essential to remember the lessons of the past while staying open to new innovations and ideas in our ongoing quest to develop a monetary system that best serves the needs of society.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by financialflagship
5 STUPID Trading Advice SayingsIt’s true. When it comes to financial trading, everyone has an opinion, and there is no shortage of advice floating around. However, some advice is just plain ridiculous and some tips can be downright detrimental to your trading success. I want to cover the 5 stupid trading advice points, that many traders still follow and why you should avoid them by all means. #1: Go Big or Go Home This advice suggests that you should take significant risks in trading. You should aim for massive gains. And you should adopt the casino mentality of going full port! It is true that higher risks can lead to higher rewards. But when you adopt a “go big or go home” mentality, it can result in substantial losses that are difficult to recover from. Instead, follow a disciplined approach to risk management, using appropriate position sizing and stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Risk little to make a little more. Risk 2% to make 4%. Or risk 1% to make 3%. Those small gains will eventually outweigh the losses. #2: The Next Trade Will Be Better If you believe that the next trade will magically be more successful than the previous one, you’re in for a bad time. This is nothing but a dangerous mindset to adapt to. This belief can lead to overtrading and a lack of discipline when you stick to your trading strategy. To avoid falling into this trap, focus on maintaining a consistent and well-defined trading plan, rather than trying to chase the elusive “better” trades. #3: Follow Your Heart Emotions are proven to be the trader’s worst enemy. They will often cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. “Follow your heart” in trading and you’ll find you’ll ignore your strategy and you’ll take irrational risks. Instead, rely on your trading plan, technical analysis, and fundamental research to make informed decisions, and always keep your emotions in check. #4: Everything Happens for a Reason When you depend on fate, the stars and the mysterious cosmic plan, it is a surefire way to lose money in trading. The stock market doesn’t work on esoterical means. It works on simple demand, supply and volume. The financial markets are also influenced by countless factors, from economic data releases to geopolitical events, and it’s essential to understand these factors to make well-informed trading decisions. Don’t rely on fate or superstition when trading. Instead, focus on analysis, strategy, and risk management. #5: Work Harder and You’ll Win More While hard work and dedication are essential for success in any field. The belief that you need to work harder in a trading day, will guarantee more wins in trading is misguided. If the environment is not conducive. Or trades have not aligned according to your strategy, it’s pointless taking more trades for gain. Think of sideways markets. Whether you buy (go long) or short (go short), you’re more likely to fail. Trading is not just about putting in the hours; it’s about working smart, refining your strategy, and maintaining discipline. Instead of trading harder, focus and develop a comprehensive trading plan, continually educate yourself on market dynamics, and consistently reviewing and refining your strategy. And of course. JUST TAKE THE TRADE – When it lines up according to your strategy. Can you think of anymore?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
📊 Exploring Basic Options StrategiesOptions are contracts that grant buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a predetermined price in the future. Buyers pay a premium for this privilege. If market conditions are unfavorable, option holders can let the option expire without exercising it, limiting potential losses to the premium paid. Options are categorized as "call" or "put" contracts, allowing buyers to purchase or sell the underlying asset at a specified price. Beginner investors can employ various strategies using calls or puts to manage risk, including directional bets and hedging techniques. 🔹 Buying Calls (Long Calls) Trading options offers advantages for those who want to make a directional bet in the market. It allows traders to buy call options, which require less capital than purchasing the underlying asset, and limits losses to the premium paid if the price goes down. This strategy is suitable for traders who are confident about a specific stock, ETF, or index fund and want to manage risk. Additionally, options provide leverage, enabling traders to amplify potential gains by using smaller amounts of capital compared to trading the underlying asset directly. For example, instead of investing $10,000 to buy 100 shares of a $100 stock, traders can spend $2,000 on a call contract with a strike price 10% higher than the current market price. 🔹 Buying Puts (Long Puts) Put options provide the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price before the contract expires. This strategy is favored by traders who hold a bearish view on a specific stock, ETF, or index but want to limit their risk compared to short-selling. It also allows traders to utilize leverage to capitalize on declining prices. Unlike call options that benefit from price increases, put options increase in value as the underlying asset's price decreases. While short-selling also profits from price declines, the risk is unlimited as prices can theoretically rise infinitely. In contrast, if the underlying asset's price exceeds the strike price of a put option, the option simply expires without value. 🔹 Covered Calls A covered call strategy involves selling a call option on an existing long position in the underlying asset. This approach is different from simply buying a call or put option. Traders who use covered calls expect little or no change in the underlying asset's price and want to collect the option premium as income. They are willing to limit the upside potential of their position in exchange for some downside protection. 🔹 Risk/Reward A long straddle strategy involves purchasing both a call option and a put option simultaneously. While the cost of a long straddle is higher than buying either a call or put option alone, the maximum potential loss is limited to the amount paid for the straddle. On the other hand, the potential reward is theoretically unlimited on the upside. However, the downside is capped at the strike price. For example, if you own a $20 straddle and the stock price drops to zero, the maximum profit you can make is $20. 👤 @QuantVue 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
WHY TRADERS LOSE MONEYhello traders, today we will talk about WHY TRADERS LOSE MONEY TVC:DXY TVC:DXY BIAS WHAT IT MEANS… HOW IT INFLUENCES TRADERS Availability People estimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily it can be recalled. Traders put too much emphasis on their most recent trades and let recent results interfere with their trading decisions. After a loss, traders often get scared or try to get back to break even. Both mental states lead to bad trading quickly. After a win, many traders get over-confident and trade loosely. You must be aware of how you react to recent results and trade with a high level of awareness. Dilution effect Irrelevant data weakens other more relevant data. Using too many tools and trading concepts to analyze price could weaken the importance of the core decision drivers. I wrote about redundant signals and how to combine the right tools here: click here Gambler’s fallacy People believe that probabilities have to even each other out in the short term. Traders misinterpret randomness and believe that after three losing trades, a winning trade is more likely. The probabilities don’t change based on past results. Even after 10 losses in a row, the next trade does not have a higher chance of being a winner. Anchoring Overestimating the importance of the first available piece of information. Upon entering a trade, people set their whole chart and analysis in reference to their entry price and don’t see the whole picture objectively anymore. You must always have a plan BEFORE you enter a trade. Insensitivity to sample size Underestimating the variance for large and small sample sizes. Traders too often make assumptions about the accuracy of their system based on just a few trades, or even change parameters after only a few losers. A decent sample size is 30 – 50 trades. Do not alter anything about your approach before you have reached this number. And make sure that you follow the same rules to get an accurate picture of your trading within the sample size. Contagion heuristic Avoiding contact with objects people see as “contaminated” by previous contact. Traders avoid markets/instruments after having a large loss in that instrument, even when the loss was the fault of the trader. Hindsight We see things that have already occurred as more probable than they were before they took place. Looking back on your trades and fishing for explanations why the trade has failed, even though those signals weren’t obvious at the time. Do not change your indicator or setting after a loss to come up with explanations or excuses. Accept that losses are normal and always follow your plan. Hot-hand fallacy After a successful outcome on a random event, another success is more likely. Traders believe that once they are in a winning streak, things become easier and they can “feel” what the market is going to do next. I wrote about the hot-dand-fallacy in trading before: click here Peak–end rule People judge an event based on how they felt at the peak of the event. Traders look at a losing trade and only see how much they were in profit at the maximum, but don’t look at what went wrong afterwards. Do not change your reference point when in a trade and have a plan for your trade management and when to exit before entering a trade. Simulation heuristic People feel more regret if they miss an event only by a little. Price that missed your target only by a little bit, or a trade where you got stopped out just by a few points can be more painful than other trades. The outcome is out of your control and you cannot influence the price movements. The only thing you can do is manage your trade within your rules. Social proof If unsure what to do, people look for what other people did. Traders too often ask for advice from other traders when they are not sure what to do – even when other traders have a completely different trading strategy. You must take responsibility for your actions and results. And not rely on someone else. Framing People make decisions based on how it is presented; a gain is more valuable than a loss and a sure gain is more valuable than a probabilistic greater gain. Traders close profitable trades too early because they value current profits more than a potentially larger profit in the future. Cutting winners too soon is a huge problem. If this is an issue for you, reducing screen time can be helpful. Do not watch your trades tick by tick. Sunk cost We will invest in something just because we have already invested in it. before Adding to losing trades because you are already invested, even though no objective reason to add exists. You must define your stop loss in advance and then execute it without hesitation when it has been reached. Confirmation Only looking for information that confirms your beliefs, ideas and actions. Blanking out reasons and signals that don’t support your trade and just looking for confirmation. Especially when traders are in a loss, they only look for supportive information. Stay objective! Overconfidence People have a higher confidence than what their level of skill actually suggests. Traders misjudge their level of expertise and skill. Consistently losing traders don’t see that it’s their fault. Analyze your results objectively and get a trading journal to add even more accountability. Selective perception Forgetting those things that caused discomfort. Traders forget easily that their own mistakes and wrong trading decisions caused the majority of their losses. Do not blame the marjets, unfair circumnstances, your broker or any other outside event. You are the one who is responsible for making it work. It’s totally up to you and blaming others won’t help you make progress. Which bias is the one that is causing you the greatest troubles? What are you workin on right now? Let me know in the comments below and I will answer with tips and ideas on how to overcome your struggles. This chart is just for information Never stop learning I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Education
by moneyhacksrwanda
3
Patience and DisciplinePatience and Discipline IN order to succeeded in the trading industry a lot of technique must be mastered understanding how the markets works and how to reacts to different situations should be on every traders list. Patience This refers to accepting delay or waiting for something to be ready while you wait. in trading the best trading opportunity comes in after analyzing the markets and waiting for the steps you analyzed to follow suit this may seem worthless and time wasting but this is the only way to get the best trades. Trading sessions Analyzing the markets today and getting into a trade the following day on during the most active trading sessions will results in the most profitable trades. Trading session are active hours of a given trading pair understanding the pairs trading sessions and only executing trades during the active hours may results in profitable trades. Discipline This refers to the act of training yourself to obey rules or code of behaviour. After mastering patience the next step must be mastering discipline a lot of people may think discipline and patience are the same but this are completely two different technique that a trader must master and put to act during trading. Conclusion First a traders must analysis the markets then wait for a very good entry (patience) after this is done repeating the same processes over and over again without breaking the rules is called discipline.
Education
by Michael_ict_jr
MOST POWERFUL TRADING SETUPThe fakey setup is a powerful trading strategy that can be used to identify high-probability entries in the forex market. It combines three different chart patterns and requires the trader to be patient and wait for the right setup to form. With a bit of practice, traders can become very proficient at spotting fakey setups and taking advantage of them. Fakey setup begins with an inside bar or false breakout pattern. This is when price breaks out of a range but quickly reverses and closes back inside the range. This shows that the breakout was false and signals a potential reversal. The false breakout is followed by a pin bar. This is a strong candlestick pattern that has a long tail and a short body. The long wick indicates a rejection of a certain price level. Simply put, this setup is formed when a false breakout of the triangle pattern occurs. The inside bar is actually a triangle if you look at the small timeframe, and its false breakout forms this strong setup. On a bitcoin chart for example, you can find many such setups. This is another version of the fakey setup. Where a false breakout of the triangle leads to a strong bullish movement. In the forex market this setup is traded as usual. Fakey setup in Forex market *️⃣ The main form occurs when one of the highs or lows of the mother bar breaks with a bar with a long tail. IMPORTANT TO KNOW *️⃣ In the forex market the fakey setup is traded only on H4 timeframes, better on D1 only on the trend, it is very risky to catch reversals on its tops or lows. As in any Price Action pattern, there must be a confluence point, which can be support or resistance levels. Fibonacci levels or trend lines are right place to take trade if you find this setup. Trading is conducted by pending buy and sell orders. Take profit can be taken at a distance of "stop loss multiplied by n", where the recommended value of n = 2 (there can be more), or at the nearest horizontal level. But each trader's method of exiting a trade may be different. You can trade fakey setup against the main trend, but like any other counter-trend setup, it must be absolutely obvious with a perfect shape and must be on an obvious and strong daily level. You should not trade fakey against the trend until you learn how to trade this setup with the trend on the daily charts. Keep in mind that fakey on hourly charts has almost no power. Only the breakout of the mother candle following the breakout of the inside bar is a is a signal to enter the trade. Because there was not a substantial breaking of the mother candle as in a significant fakeout, there is a need for further confirmation that the market is actually going in our favor. The fakey is a particularly successful setup since a false-break that developed in the opposite direction of the strong trend suggests that the trend is going to continue. Even if false breakout of horizontal market support and resistance levels don't happen frequently. The price crosses the horizontal level in the example below, but the subsequent candle bounces rapidly and moves upward, indicating that the level was a false breakout and also forming Inside Bar setup: A false triangle breakout can be found in any market. Bitcoin really likes this pattern, but in a slightly different form although the essence remains the same. How does it happen? The market essentially consolidates, after a trend movement forms a triangle, and a false breakout of this pattern leads to a continuation of the movement. This pattern can be found from 2014 on the BTC chart.   Fakey is one of the best sets of price action since it reveals market activity and predicts what is likely to occur in the near future. Because a strong trend has both technical and fundamental reasons to move in one direction or another, this setup works best in trend markets. A fake breakout happens when "amateurs" try to buy at the top or sell at the bottom because professional players enter the market and profit from the brief retreat brought on by the "amateurs'" greed and emotional trading.
Education
by Lingrid
13
Trading Mindset: The Winning Edge!In the world of trading, strategy, and market knowledge are typically seen as the twin pillars of success. However, this is only part of the picture. The psychological aspect of trading is often overlooked but can be equally, if not more, influential in shaping trading outcomes. This component involves understanding and managing the emotions, biases, and mental states that can impact trading decisions. Emotional decision-making can lead to costly mistakes, such as panic selling during market dips or holding onto a losing trade for too long out of hope or fear. Therefore, it is crucial to cultivate a clear, disciplined mindset for more profitable and consistent trading outcomes. This tutorial will delve into the psychological landscape of trading, providing valuable insights and practical tips to master your mind and, consequently, the market. Common Psychological Traps in Trading There are several psychological traps that traders can fall into, which can seriously undermine their trading performance. One of these traps is overconfidence. After a streak of successful trades, it's easy to start feeling invincible, which can lead to riskier trading behaviors and impulsive decisions. Fear and greed are two more emotions that often dictate trading decisions. They are the key drivers behind market trends and can lead to significant financial losses if not managed properly. The fear of missing out (FOMO) can push traders into hasty, poorly thought-out trades, while greed can create a reluctance to sell even when all signs point to a market downturn. Another common psychological pitfall is anchoring. This occurs when a trader becomes fixated on specific price points or values, which can distort their perception of a security's true value and hinder rational decision-making. Understanding Your Trading Emotions To manage your trading emotions effectively, you first need to understand them. One practical way to do this is by keeping a trading journal. Besides recording your trades and their outcomes, this journal should also note down your emotions and thoughts at the time of each trade. Over time, you may start to see patterns in how your emotions affect your trading decisions. Knowing your risk tolerance is another crucial factor. Each trader has a different level of comfort when it comes to taking risks, and understanding this can significantly shape your trading strategy. A risk-averse trader might prefer more stable assets, while a risk-tolerant one might be comfortable with higher volatility. Strategies for Managing Trading Emotions Being in the right mental state before you start trading is paramount. Developing a pre-trade routine that helps you calm down and focus can prepare you for the trading day ahead. This routine could include activities like meditating, exercising, or going over the latest market news and your trading plan for the day. Having a clear trading plan can also provide a solid foundation for managing your emotions. This plan should outline your strategy, including risk management tactics, potential entry and exit points, and your objectives for each trade. It serves as a roadmap and can keep you grounded when market volatility triggers emotional responses. In addition, learning stress management techniques can be invaluable in trading, a field often fraught with stress. Taking regular breaks, deep breathing exercises, and ensuring you have a balanced lifestyle outside of trading can help maintain your mental equilibrium. Conclusion and Further Reading Trading psychology is a vast and complex field, but understanding its fundamental principles can drastically improve your trading performance. By being aware of the common psychological traps, understanding your own emotions and risk tolerance, and employing effective strategies to manage your trading emotions, you can make more informed and profitable trading decisions. Continuous learning and emotional self-awareness are keys to successful trading. There are numerous resources available for those who want to delve deeper into trading psychology, risk management, and market analysis. While the journey to master your trading psychology can be challenging, the potential rewards - improved trading outcomes and personal growth - are well worth the effort.
Education
by ShawnMCR
4