NEAR Q3 OverviewExecutive Summary
NEAR Protocol stands as a Layer-1 (L1) smart contract blockchain that couples a state-of-the-art sharded architecture with an emphasis on offering a user experience reminiscent of Web 2 platforms. While maintaining the security and decentralization integral to blockchains, NEAR aims to surpass the capabilities of prior chains, such as Ethereum, in terms of usability, efficiency, and scalability. Recognizing and aiming to overcome Ethereum's limitations, NEAR incorporates sharding. This key distinction allows the blockchain to significantly enhance its throughput, accommodating a more substantial transaction volume by dividing the blockchain into smaller, concurrent shards.
A pivotal differentiator for the NEAR Protocol, sharding was introduced in November 2021 as Nightshade. This technique allows validators to process only transactions specific to their assigned shards, enabling potentially infinite scalability. For end users and investors, Nightshade ensures quicker transaction speeds at reduced fees. Diverging from traditional sharding methods that split the blockchain into multiple states, NEAR's design maintains the blockchain as a singularly sharded entity. Additionally, a synchronized state mechanism ensures that a change in one block's state prompts adjustments in other shards correspondingly.
In March 2023, NEAR unveiled the Blockchain Operating System (BOS), a groundbreaking open-source platform that allows developers to craft applications across various blockchain environments using well-known programming languages. Moreover, it provides crypto users with an experience reminiscent of Web 2. Designed to be inclusive, BOS appeals to Web3 veterans and those new to the decentralized web. By ensuring easy onboarding, robust security, and seamless cross-chain interactions, BOS is setting a new paradigm for Web 3 application development.
The NEAR Foundation, with the inception of the NEAR Digital Collective (NDC) and a pivot to community DAOs, is pioneering a transition to a more democratized and decentralized framework compared to the conventional Board-based system. Launched in Q3 2022, the NDC represents a concerted effort to decentralize decision-making within the NEAR network, emphasizing transparency through defined treasury management and embracing decentralized governance with on-chain voting. Furthermore, the NDC aspires to advance validator decentralization and stimulate the development of the core protocol and infrastructure.
Looking forward into 2024, the Near protocol will introduce several pivotal milestones, including the next step in Nightshade sharding, meta transactions, zero-balance accounts, a Global Storage proposal, and more.
Introduction to Near
NEAR Protocol is a Layer-1 (L1) smart contract blockchain with a bleeding-edge sharded design and an emphasis on an intuitive Web 2-like customer experience, all while preserving the security and decentralization users expect with a blockchain. Established in 2018, it sets out to achieve improved usability, efficiency, and scalability over preceding chains like Ethereum. Founded by Illia Polosukhin and Alexander Skidanov and spearheaded by the Near Collective, the NEAR Protocol was envisioned to serve as a community-driven cloud computing PoS blockchain and a decentralized hub tailored explicitly for hosting innovative decentralized applications.
The central motivation behind NEAR's technology is to prevent network congestion and furnish a conducive environment for developers, thereby promoting on-chain protocol development. Early on, NEAR identified certain operational challenges in Ethereum, particularly related to network congestion and high/volatile gas fees, that it looked to solve. To do so, Near turned towards sharding.
A key differentiator for NEAR, sharding, in essence, provides the ability for a blockchain to increase its throughput and handle a larger number of transactions by partitioning the blockchain into smaller parallel shards. In its pursuits, Near introduced an original approach to sharding in November 2021 known as Nightshade, initially unveiled as Simple Nightshade. The underlying principle of Nightshade is that validators are not burdened with the task of processing every incoming transaction. Instead, they only handle transactions that are within specific shards. By doing so, Nightshade paves the way for theoretically limitless scalability. But what does this mean for the end user or investor? Primarily, this approach, which is entirely abstracted from the end-user experience, allows for reduced transaction fees while ensuring rapid transaction speeds.
Additionally, Near recently launched a new initiative in early 2023 known as the Blockchain Operating System (BOS). This development represents a significant shift in how we perceive blockchain platforms. The BOS is designed to integrate seamlessly with various blockchain systems while facilitating decentralization and discoverability, which have historically been impossible to achieve together.
Essentially, the BOS is grounded in blockchain technology but broadens its application by acting as a universal layer, making it adaptable to different blockchain frameworks. One of its primary features is the provision of a decentralized platform for front-end development. This platform aims to simplify the creation of blockchain applications by emphasizing clarity and flexibility.
One of the core advantages of BOS is its potential to decentralize user interactions, improve security protocols, and enhance the modularity of components. Additionally, it prioritizes compatibility across diverse blockchains, presenting developers with a more intuitive and straightforward development environment.
NEAR Technologies
Blockchain Operating System (BOS)
In March 2023, the NEAR protocol introduced the Blockchain Operating System (BOS), an open-source platform empowering developers with the flexibility to build across diverse blockchain environments using familiar programming languages and equipping crypto users with a familiar Web 2 UX. The BOS is designed to be inclusive and democratize the open, catering not only to seasoned web3 enthusiasts but also to the broader audience who might be newer to the decentralized web. A significant breakthrough in the system is eliminating the immediate need for a new user to own any cryptocurrency, substantially reducing the friction of user onboarding.
Additionally, the BOS interface streamlines access and navigation, making it more user-friendly for both developers and the general populace. Moreover, it enables users to search through a portal to diverse communities and applications, all the while prioritizing data privacy. Further, the BOS's user-centric design, coupled with its focus on accessibility, does not just simplify the onboarding experience but also bolsters the discovery of new applications.
Remarkably, the BOS functions both as a development platform and a social network. It’s an environment where users can both deploy and unearth new applications. In delivering straightforward onboarding procedures, unmatched security, and fluid interactions across all chains, the BOS is reshaping the framework for constructing Web 3 applications.
Source
BOS Under the Hood
The Blockchain Operating System (BOS) by NEAR seeks to redefine the landscape of Web3 applications through its unique architecture based on three pivotal elements: components, blockchains, and gateways. Here, we will delve into the significance of each element and examine how they collectively shape the BOS framework.
Components: The Building Blocks of BOS
Components exist at the decentralized application (dApp) layer and can be equated with notable platforms such as Lido, Uniswap, Compound, and others. They stand out for their on-chain storage, high degree of transparency, and their ability for developers to fork these applications, harnessing their functionalities and composability to craft comprehensive web applications. Storing the entirety of a component's code on-chain not only ensures auditability but also bolsters security. With the code readily available for scrutiny in blockchain explorers, users can operate these applications locally, enjoying resilience against potential censorship and a streamlined user experience. This ability to natively audit and locally run the applications represents a paradigm shift in the user-app relationship.
Blockchains: The Underlying Infrastructure
The versatility of components and the BOS becomes apparent in their ability to interact with numerous blockchains and smart contracts instead of just one chain. Currently, BOS offers compatibility with all EVM chains, such as Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism, as well as, the native NEAR platform. As EVM chains dominate the TVL in the DeFi space, the BOS’ ability to work across nearly all enables users to tap into nearly all the liquidity and top dApps in the crypto economy. NEAR's capability to efficiently and cost-effectively store HTML/CSS/JS makes it the preferred choice for hosting app source codes.
Gateways: Bridging the Gap to Decentralization
Gateways, the third pillar of the BOS, facilitate the delivery of decentralized front-ends to a broader audience. Each gateway is underpinned by a bespoke virtual machine (VM) equipped to load and run frontends for protocols, be they Ethereum-based, Layer 2 solutions, or alt-L1 platforms like NEAR. All code pertaining to these frontends finds its home on the NEAR blockchain. The gateways are diverse, ranging from wallets and portfolio tools to distinct applications like SWEAT. They cater to tasks as rudimentary as adding swap functionality or as intricate as erecting decentralized app stores. Integrating this expansive functionality requires just the addition of a JavaScript library, followed by a selection of desired app front-ends. Prominent gateway exemplars include near.org, bos.gg, near.social, Cantopia, and nearpad.dev.
The decentralization of composable front ends enabled by the BOS is unique to Near, filling a conspicuous and much-needed void in the crypto arena. Instead of relying on centralized data servers, these front ends are blockchain-stored, promoting both composability and resistance to potential censorship. Historical instances, such as Uniswap's token delisting and the sanctions imposed on Tornado Cash, underscore the vulnerabilities of front ends. BOS’s decentralized approach allows developers the flexibility to fork these front ends and build in the truly OSINT environment that the cryptocurrency movement was built upon.
BOS Advantages
The BOS aims to integrate decentralization with discoverability and developer flexibility. Central to the BOS framework is its array of Web3 development tools that are crafted with the intent of pushing Web3 mainstream. From the onset, the system is designed to enhance user onboarding, improve cross-chain development and app discoverability, and create a seamless UX for Web3 users.
This last point on abstracting away different blockchains for a seamless Web3 experience has benefits beyond simply improving UX. It can potentially also reduce the liquidity fragmentation and tribalism associated with a fragmented crypto economy built around disparate, siloed blockchains. The BOS proposes a solution to this by striving for a consistent user experience across multiple blockchains and allowing developers globally to access and implement various Web3 components. With users and developers now (potentially) unable to discern which blockchain they are using, there is no longer a need to promote one over the other.
None of this is possible without the composability offered by the BOS. The system aims to be chain and language-agnostic, allowing developers to reuse and adjust different components while utilizing the language of their choice. The BOS supports a variety of languages for smart contract development, including JavaScript, Rust, AssemblyScript, and Solidity. Complementing this are their collaborations with established cloud providers, namely Google, Seracle, and Alibaba Cloud, to make transitioning from Web2 to Web3 as comfortable as possible.
In addition, NEAR has initiated the NEAR Dev Hub, a platform envisioned as a resource hub for developers. Preliminary outputs from this initiative include sponsored hackathons and the establishment of community groups.
Thresholded Proof of Stake
The NEAR Protocol operates on a distinct consensus mechanism known as "Thresholded Proof of Stake" (TPoS). Similar to other PoS implementations, TPoS still uses validators, who must stake NEAR tokens to participate, to validate transactions and ensure the integrity/security of the network. However, within the TPoS environment, validators can assume one of four pivotal roles:
Chunk Producers: Their primary responsibility is to authenticate transactions on individual shards, subsequently crafting a chunk, often referred to as a "shard block", from their designated shard.
Block Producers: These validators gather chunks from their chunk-producing counterparts associated with discrete shards. Their function culminates in the production of a block, which is then added to the primary chain.
Hidden Validators: Operating under a veil of confidentiality, these validators authenticate random shards — shards whose identity remains a secret to them and is undisclosed to the public. This veil serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it considerably complicates the task for any malevolent entities attempting to compromise them. Secondly, it robustly augments the chain's overall security measures.
Fishermen: Actively overseeing certain chain segments, these validators act as the guardians against fraudulent activities. They constantly monitor, ready to flag any nefarious activities. Interestingly, their operational requirements are modest — a minimal stake. However, this role, though critical, doesn't confer any rewards.
Central to TPoS is its innovative auction system employed to select validators. This methodology, in essence, discourages the practice of pooling. When validators amass resources, they not only amplify their individual rewards but also consolidate control over the chain. Such centralization runs counter to the foundational principles of blockchain, which emphasize distributed control. The TPoS design confronts this challenge head-on by placing natural barriers against pooling.
Additionally, TPoS tackles the issue of consensus forking — a scenario in which multiple validators simultaneously contribute blocks to the chain. Such events can elongate the time required for transaction finality. By minimizing the possibility of these forking instances, TPoS ensures swifter transaction finality.
Validator Requirements
Validators bear the critical responsibility of validating and executing transactions across the entirety of NEAR's sharded blockchain. Additionally, they monitor their peers (other validators), ensuring no invalid blocks are produced or alternate chains are formed. Validators found compromising network stability undergo "slashing," where part or all of their staked assets are confiscated. To compensate for their services and inherent risks, NEAR validators receive a inflationary protocol rewards, amounting to 4.5% of the total supply annually.
Given the complexity of the validator role, there are stringent hardware requirements (e.g. costs) for anyone looking to run one. To effectively run a validator, a robust system configuration, consisting of an 8-Core CPU, 16GB of RAM, and 1 TB SSD storage, is necessary. Current estimates indicate that the monthly expenditure for hosting a block-producing validator node stands at $330+.
This excerpt just scratches the surface, for the full report, click here .
Fundamental Analysis
10 Proven Tips for TradersIn the fast-paced world of day trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential.
If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜
Here are ten time-tested strategies to guide your journey towards trading success:
1. Craft a Concrete Plan:
A meticulously planned strategy is your foundation. Clearly define what, how much, and when you will trade. Rushing into trades without a plan can lead to costly mistakes.
2. Prioritize Risk Management:
Risk management is paramount. Establish a robust strategy, including stop-loss levels and trusted brokers. Safeguarding your capital ensures longevity in the trading game.
3. Leverage Technology:
Embrace cutting-edge tools. Utilize charting platforms for market analysis and backtest your strategies against historical data. Mobile apps offer real-time market access, empowering you to make informed decisions.
4. Embrace Continuous Learning:
Stay nimble by staying informed. Keep up with news, trading literature, and emerging market trends. Adaptability is key in evolving markets like cryptocurrencies.
5. Rely on Facts, Not Emotions:
Base your decisions on cold, hard facts. Emotional impulses can cloud your judgment. Trust your data-backed strategies, preventing impulsive and regrettable actions.
6. Set Entry and Exit Rules:
Discipline is your ally. Stick unwaveringly to your predefined entry and exit points. Deviating from your plan risks unnecessary losses.
7. Strategy Over Money:
Focus on strategy execution, not profits. Concentrating solely on money can lead to hasty, ill-informed decisions. Trust your strategy; profits will naturally follow.
8. Own Your Decisions:
Accept responsibility for both wins and losses. Learn from mistakes constructively. Pinpoint errors, adjust your approach, and fortify your strategy for future trades.
9. Maintain a Detailed Trade Journal:
Record every trade meticulously. Modern software simplifies this process, offering insights into your past trades. A trading journal is your compass, guiding you towards informed decisions.
10. Recognize When to Pause:
Acknowledge when your strategy falters. Avoid chasing losses; instead, recalibrate your approach. Knowing when to step back is a hallmark of a seasoned trader.
Continuously refining your skills with these principles can elevate your day trading prowess. Stay disciplined, adapt to the markets, and success will undoubtedly follow.
Happy trading! 💜
What is a REIT and how do they work?A. Let’s start with the basics:
REITs stands for 'Real Estate Investment Trusts'.
These are essentially property companies that are listed on the stock market which you'll find pretty much most of them on TradingView.
So how do they work?
Step 1: An individual decides to invest in a REIT company.
Step 2: The money is then collected into a large pool (like all trusts).
Step 3: The pooled money is then invested into the property that the company either owns, operates or finances.
Step 4: Over time the company starts to make revenue and profit.
Step 5: The profits are then accounted and collected.
Step 6: The profits are then distributed in parts to the initial investors who
helped finance the company through a REIT.
Sounds great in theory…
But in reality, there is always a catch…
And that catch is timing.
The Big five SA Reits have lost over R100bn in value since 2018.
The BIG five REITs are:
1. Growthpoint
2. Redefine
3. Resilient
4. Vukile and
5. Hyprop.
Of course, this could be seen as an opportunity but there are several other factors we need to consider before deciding the best time to trade this type of asset.
A trick will be to overlay the five companies on a chart. See how they move and operate in conjunction to each other.
And then we can decide which are buys or sells.
Apples with apples.
4 TIPS TO SPECULATE LIKE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER AND GET BACK ON TRA(1) Don’t Let Risk Change Your Behaviour
The biggest psychological obstacle for traders is the perception of losses (and the concept of losing). For traders, the pain of closing a trade and realizing a loss outweighs the excitement of realizing a winning trade of equal magnitude.
(2) Don’t let confidence get the best of you
After putting together a string of successes, it’s human nature to build up confidence around your dealings and this can be a good thing.
But once a trader has gone into the territory of being ‘over-confident’, risky habits may sneak into their approach, none more damaging than the willingness to bend their own trading rules simply because they feel it will be successful.
Therefore, traders should always look to strike that delicate balance between being scared or fearful, and over-confident.
(3) Bring a Positive Mindset to the Charts Every Day
Since you will inevitably be taking losses in this game of forex speculation, it’s important to deny those losses from altering your frame of mind.
Traders will often experience the disappointment of being stopped out and this can be very discouraging. As a result of this they take shortcuts on their analysis or question their own approach. This never ends well.
Well to conclude..
One of the best ways to manage your emotions is to trade with stops and set a positive risk to reward ratio.
Many traders believe that a trading strategy has to be perfect. Most times the best strategy is the simple strategy. Learn how to trade consistently without the perfect strategy.
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer.
The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK .
👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX .
👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components.
👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together.
👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components).
That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management.
👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks.
The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE .
👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX .
👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries.
👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing.
👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other.
👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management.
👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks.
The main graph represents different stock market stages of work
🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel.
The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage.
🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born.
The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom.
🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021.
Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression.
The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high.
🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs.
The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average.
💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself.
This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned.
💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates .
Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
Trading &/or GamblingThe difference between trading and gambling.
This article will shine a light on the most frequent mistakes that traders make. These mistakes blur the thin line between trading and gambling.
Many people have spoken on this topic, but we truly believe that it is still not sufficient, and traders should be better educated on how to avoid gambling behaviour and emotional outbursts. When we speak about trading versus gambling, we define gambling as the act of making irrational, emotional and quick decisions.
Most of the time, these decisions are based on greed, and sometimes fear of the trader. Let’s dive into the exact problems we have personally experienced thousands of times, and want to help others avoid.
1 ♠ Bad Money Management
This is something that everyone has heard at least once, but seems to naively ignore in the hopes that it is not that important .
It is the most important . When a trader enters trades, it is exceptionally alluring to enter with all of their money, or close to all of it. In gambling terms, that is going “All in”, or “All or nothing”.
As a rule of thumb, both traders and gamblers should only place or bet money that they can afford to lose.
Thankfully, at least in trading one can limit their loss for that specific trade, by placing a stop loss or exiting before total liquidation. In Poker, you can’t fold when you are “All in” and take a portion of your money back. However, that does not mean entering trades with full capital, even with a stop-loss, is going to give you exponential returns and feed your greed for profits.
Traders should enter positions with a small amount of their full capital, to limit the damage from losses. Yes, you also limit the possibility that you win a few trades in a row with all of your money and… There goes the greed we mentioned.
The “globally perfect” percent of equity you need to enter trades to reach that balance between being too cautious and too greedy does not exist. There are methods, like the Kelly Criterion, as described in our previous Idea (see related ideas below), that help you optimize your money management.
Always ask yourself, “How much can I afford to lose?”. Aim for a balanced approach. This way you can position yourself within the market for a long and a good time, not just for a few lucky wins. Greedy money management, or lack thereof, ends in liquidations and heartbreak.
2 ♣ The Use of Leverage
Anyone who has tried using leverage, knows how easy it is to lose your position (or full) capital in seconds. Using leverage is mainly sold to retail traders as a tool for them to loan money from the exchange or broker and bet with it. It is extremely profitable for institutions, since it multiplies the fees you pay them ten to one hundred-fold.
In our opinion, leverage isn’t something that should be entirely avoided. However, it should be limited as much as possible.
We cannot deny that using 1-5x leverage can be beneficial for people with small accounts and a thirst for growth, however as the leverage grows, the more of a gambler you become.
We often see people share profits made using 20+ times leverage. Some even use ridiculous leverages within the range of 50-125x.
If you are doing that, do you truly trust your entry so much that you believe the market won’t move 1% against your decision and liquidate you immediately?
At this point, the gambling aspect should be evident, and it goes without saying that you should not touch this “125x Golden Apple”, like Eve in the Garden of Eden. Especially when you see a snake-exchange promote it.
If you use a low amount of leverage, and grow your account to the point where you don’t need it for your personal goals in terms of monetary profit. You should consider stopping the use of it, and at least know you’ll be able to sleep at night.
3 ♥ Always Being In A Position
Always being either long or short leads to addiction and becomes gambling. While we don’t have scientific proof of that, we can give you our own experience as an example. To be a profitable trader, you do not need to always be in a position, or chase every single move on the market.
You need to develop the ability just to sit back and watch, analyse and make conscious decisions. Let the bad opportunities trick someone else, while you patiently wait for all your pre-defined conditions to give you a real signal.
When you think of trading, remember that the market has a trend the minority (around 20-30%) of the time. If you are always in a position, this means that 70-80% of the time you are hoping that something will happen in your favour. That, by definition, is gambling.
Another aspect, that we have experienced a lot, is that while you remain in a position, especially if you have used leverage, you are constantly paying your exchange fees. You can be in a short position for a week and pay daily fees which only damage your equity, and therefore margin ratio. So why not just sit back, be patient and define some concrete rules for entering and exiting?
Avoid risky situations, and let the market bring the profits whenever it decides to.
4 ♦ Chasing Huge Profits
Hold your horses, Warren Buffett. Through blood, sweat and tears, we can promise you that you cannot seriously expect to make 100% every month, no matter what magical backtesting or statistics you are calculating your future fortune on.
Moreover, you will realise that consistently making 2-5% a month is an excellent career for a trader.
Yes, the markets can be good friends for a while, you may stumble into a bull-run and start making double-digit profits from a trade from time to time. Double-digit losses will also follow if you lose your sight in a cloud of euphoria and greed.
Many times, you can follow the “profit is profit” principle, and exit at a small win if the risk of loss is increasing.
5 ♠ Being Sentimental Towards Given Assets
You may have a fondness for Bitcoin and Tesla, and we understand that because we too have our favourites. Perhaps you’re deeply attached to the vision, community and purpose of certain projects. On the flip side, there may be projects that you completely despise and hope their prices plummet to zero.
What you personally like and dislike, should not interfere with your work as a trader. Introducing such strong emotions into your trading will lead you into a loop of irrational decisions. You may find yourself asking, “Why isn’t this price going parabolic with how good the project is?”.
This sounds, from personal experience, quite similar to sitting at a Roulette table and asking: “Why does it keep landing on red when I’ve been constantly betting black? It has to change any moment now”.
First and foremost, you may be completely wrong, but most importantly – it could go parabolic, but trying to predict the exact time or expecting it to happen immediately and placing your “bet” on that is again, gambling.
Don’t get attached to projects when trading. If you are an investor who just wants to hold their shares in an awesome company, or cryptocurrency, that is perfectly fine, hold them as much as you want.
The key is to make an important distinction between trading and investing, and to base your strategy on the hand that the market provides you with.
6 ♣ Putting Your Eggs In One Basket
We all have heard of diversification, but how you approach it is crucial. A trader should always have their capital spread between at least a few assets. Furthermore, the trading strategy for each asset must be distinct, or in other words – they should not rely on the same entry and exit conditions for different assets.
The markets behave differently for each asset, and you cannot be profitable with some magical indicator or strategy with a “one-size-fits-all” style. Divide your trades into different pairs and asset classes, and study each market individually to properly diversify. Manage the equity you put into each trade carefully!
Conclusion
The takeaway we want you as a reader to have from this article is that trading without consciously controlling your emotions inevitably leads to great loss and most importantly, a lot of stress.
We hate stress. Trading and life in general is exponentially harder when you are under stress. Control your risk, sleep easy, and let the market bring you profits.
Reaching this level of Zen will not be easy, but it is inevitable. Be happy when you make a profit, no matter how small or big. A lot of small profits and proper money management complete the vision you have of a successful business. Ultimately, trading is just that – work, not gambling or a pastime activity. Treat it as work and always remember to never rely on luck.
The advice we’ve included here is written by a few experienced gamblers… Oops, I meant traders 😉.
We hope that some of the lessons we’ve had to painstakingly learn through trial and error can now be shared with those who are interested. Of course, none of this constitutes investment advice. It’s merely a friendly heads-up.
Why It Pays to be a Patient Trader – 10 PointsPatience, passion and persistence.
The three Ps of what it takes to make it as a trader.
We like to say 5% is action and 95% is waiting.
And that’s why I’ve written a complete guide to being a patient trader.
Let’s start…
No Impulsive Decisions
Impulsive decisions are the bane of any trader.
The market is known to be volatile, jumpy, fickle and are prone to make sudden swings.
These swings can cause panic, fear and can lead to really poor trading choices.
If you have the patience to wait for your setup, the right market environment and for your trade to play out – you’ll stop the impulsive and emotional decisions.
Wait for the right and conducive market conditions
Many trading systems are designed to work optimally under certain market conditions.
For trend, momentum, and breakout traders – we need to let the market move and continue to move in the directions.
Patient traders will need to continue taking their trades, when the system lines up.
And only when the environment is right, will they make money.
That’s why you need to learn to risk little with the losses.
And when the winners kick in, they’ll make up for the dips and will help your portfolio flourish eventually.
Spot only the high and medium probability trades
Don’t be a rash trader.
When you jump with every opportunity you can.
There are low, medium and high probability setups.
Wait for only the high and medium probability trades.
Skip the low probability trades that align or risk very little (0.5%).
Only trade those that align with your system’s strength and exhibit strong, favourable signals.
This will help boost your win rate and drop the chances of loss.
Hold onto winners
To grow your portfolio, you need to let your winners run.
Let the great trades, run their course.
Many traders, especially beginners, often exit winning trades too soon due to fear of a reversal.
They also exit quickly as they don’t want to take the trade to turn into a loss.
And as a result, they bank a measly gain.
A patient trader understands that great profits are made when you ride the big trends.
This will require you to resist the urge to close a winning position prematurely.
Wait it out
A trader must sometimes wait:
Wait for a setup to come to fruition.
Wait for the trade to play out.
Wait for unfavourable trading periods to end.
Emotional stability
While you’re being patient.
Cut out the emotions.
That feeling of ants in your pants. Rather learn to maintain emotional stability, and avoid the emotional highs and lows.
Your trading should not feel like an emotional rollercoaster. Just do your job and treat it as a job.
Not as the lottery. Not as a gamble. Not as a be all and end all situation.
Don’t let anything cloud your judgement that can lead you to trading bad.
Master your trading strategy
Just because you have a trading strategy and gameplan.
Does not mean, you know how it works over the long haul.
A patient trader takes time to master their trading strategy.
Back, forward and real test the strategy carefully.
Trade them on different markets. See how they work taking into account the costs (brokerages, daily interest charges and even spreads).
Know how the game-plan works in all different situations and environments until you are consistent and have a proven and tested methodical execution.
Avoid overtrading
Patience helps traders avoid overtrading.
This is a common pitfall where too many positions are taken.
You have to stop revenge trading (to make up for losses).
You have to stop over trading (to try make more gains in a day).
Stick to high probability trades, a careful selection of markets and the best times to trade.
Learn from mistakes
The main time you’ll actually learn, adapt and grow as a trader – is through your mistakes.
When you make a mistake, do not sweep it under the rug.
Take the time to write them down, screenshot them and jot down a memo to yourself about these mistakes.
When you learn from them, it will prevent you from making them again and you’ll even be able to refine your strategy to avoid them.
Develop discipline into integration
Patience cultivates discipline.
That is trading well every single day or week.
Once you adapt into a routine and you have the discipline to act accordingly.
Then you will enter into a lifestyle integration.
You won’t think twice. You won’t need anything to motivate you to trade.
You will just trade well like you brush your teeth, sleep or eat everyday.
Once you have integration, there’ll be no need for motivation.
Summary
Patience in trading is a trader’s virtue.
It is an essential strategy for you, if you wish to attain long-term success in the financial markets.
Here are the key points we mentioned in this complete patience guide.
No Impulsive Decisions
Wait for the right and conducive market conditions
Spot only the high and medium probability trades
Hold onto winners
Wait it out
Emotional stability
Master your trading strategy
Avoid overtrading
Learn from mistakes
Develop discipline into integration
Looming Threats to Food and Energy SecurityThe global food and energy markets face growing uncertainty and volatility in the coming years due to converging factors that could lead to supply shortages, price spikes, and potential shocks.
One concern is the impact of declining sunspot cycles on the climate. Scientists predict that a grand solar minimum could occur in the coming decades, causing global cooling and disruptive weather patterns, negatively affecting grain production in key agricultural. With grain supplies tightened, any further demand increases would send prices a lot higher.
Global grain consumption has grown steadily, increasing by over 2% in the last 25 years. Rising disposable incomes in developing countries have enabled consumers to add more protein foods like meat and dairy to their diets. However, this dietary shift puts pressure on grains, since over 8 pounds of grain is needed to produce just 1 pound of beef. Hence, increased meat consumption indirectly leads to higher demand for grains.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely impacted global grain markets, compounding the risks. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 25-30% of worldwide wheat exports. With both countries blocking or threatening to destroy grain shipments, the conflict poses a huge threat to food security especially in import-dependent regions like North Africa and the Middle East. Export restrictions like India's recent rice export ban to protect domestic food security are also tightening global grains trade. As supplies dwindle, agricultural commodities become more vulnerable to price shocks.
These supply uncertainties make soft commodities like cocoa, coffee, and sugar especially at risk of price spikes in coming years. Prolonged droughts related to climate cycles like La Niña and El Niño could severely reduce yields of these crops grown in tropical regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. For instance, a drought in West Africa's prime cocoa-growing areas could significantly impact production. Cocoa prices are already trading near 6-year highs in anticipation of shortages. If drought hits key coffee-growing regions of Vietnam and Brazil, substantial price increases could follow.
Similar severe drought potential exists in the U.S. Midwest this summer. Lack of rainfall and moisture could cause severe yield reductions in America's corn and soybean belts. Since the U.S. is the world's largest corn and soybean exporter, this would cause severe upward price pressures globally. The rise in agricultural commodities ETF Invesco DBA likely reflects investor concerns about impending supply shortages across farming sectors, and its price might be leading the spot price of agricultural commodities.
Fertilizer prices also contribute to food market uncertainty. In 2021-2022 fertilizer prices skyrocketed due to energy costs rising, directly raising the cost of food production. When fertilizer prices surge, it puts immense pressure on farmers' costs to grow crops and indirectly influences food prices. However, falling fertilizer prices do not necessarily translate into lower food costs for consumers. Fertilizer prices have dropped substantially over the last year, without that meaning everything is fine with fertilizer production. Dropping fertilizer prices could actually indicate a slowdown in agriculture, as, lower demand for fertilizers could mean fewer farmers are investing in maximizing crop yields. In that case, food production may decline leading to higher prices due to supply and demand fundamentals. At the same time, if other farm expenses like machinery, seeds, or labor rise due to factors like high energy costs, overall production costs could still increase even as fertilizer prices decline.
The energy markets face a similar mix of uncertainty and volatility ahead. Despite substantial declines in prices, the energy sector ETF XLE has held up well, suggesting investors anticipate a rebound in oil and natural gas. Fundamentally, both commodities could trade a lot higher in the long term, however in the medium term I believe that oil is poised to drop further to the $55-60 area before tightening supplies lead to much higher prices. Essentially what’s missing is a capitulation to flush bullish sentiment, and then lead to much higher prices. At the moment the market has found a balance between a weakening global economy and OPEC+ supply cuts.
A key uncertainty is China's massive oil stockpiling in recent years, now totaling nearly 1 billion barrels. If oil exceeds $80-85 per barrel, China could temper price rallies by releasing some of these reserves, as it did in 2021. With China's economy in turmoil, further reserve releases may be needed to stimulate growth, but it’s unclear whether its economy will be able to come back easily. Weak demand from China is already an issue for the oil market, and releases from the Chinese SPR could restrain oil prices over the next year. However, on the bullish side, the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels lacking viable large-scale alternatives, even as ESG trends continue. OPEC's dwindling spare production capacity raises risks of undersupply. Even an economic recession may only briefly dampen oil prices before supply cuts by major producers again tighten markets.
Ultimately, sustained high energy prices will restrain broader economic growth by reducing demand across sectors. The outlook for food and energy markets remains uncertain, with significant risks of continued volatility over the next few years. Multiple converging factors point to potential supply shortages and price spikes across agricultural commodities and fossil fuels. While prices may fluctuate in the short-term (6-12 months), the medium-term trajectory appears to be toward tighter supplies and higher costs for food and energy (2-5 years). To close on a more positive note, I believe that food and energy prices will see significant deflation as extreme technological progress pushes prices down in the long term (5+ years).
Roaring 2020s trading-investing economyAs you can see on the presented chart we made current economy started in 1998 with the crash of the LTCM, MFG, Bankruptcy of Russian Federation and BoE. With occasional dumps in liquidity we're heading into new golden era of global finance. Let us introduce you to what we think is the most impotant financal instruments in the world right now. Said instruments is the most liquid financial markets in the world leaving aside rest of the economy we will speak about later. So it would be Standart and Poors which is the most profitable companies in the United States of America, numbers about this field are presented on the top of the chart. Second to this further to the bottom of the presented chart are numbers about gold market, New York Stock Exchange volatility, United States of America 20 year yield, GDP, Labour Inflation, Oil markets, Russian Federation GDP, Russian Federation Moscow Exchange liquidity which is equivalent to quintillion rubles, said exchange volatility level called RVI, Inflation of Labour of the same country. After this goes Passives/Actives of the most expensive venture in the dynamically changing world Federal Reserve. And last but not the least goes 20 year yield of China Republic and Russian Federation. Try to analyse presented chart with your idea of public markets and how they react on the events you see as important or playing a big role in life. Thank you for your attention please read and comment see you in later events. And remember correlation do not present cause effect. We wish you luck in roaring 2020s keep yourself in the peace mood of mind.
Become a Trading Machine – 11 Ways!If you want to trade well and consistently.
You have to be more mechanically orientated.
I’ll be literally quick and brief.
Saying “literally” was unnecessary and made it longer.
Sorry.
Here are the pointers:
1. Stay committed
2. Cultivate patience
3. Avoid herd mentality
4. Be long-term oriented
5. Stop crying over losers
6. Review your performance
7. Stop celebrating winners
8. Adapt to market conditions
9. Keep your emotions in check
10. Don’t think of quick success
11. Adapt and advance with technology
Are there any ways you take to be a trading machine?
Let me know!
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools.
However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced.
During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading?
I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away.
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"The Wall Street Jungle"
Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry.
Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances.
Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes.
What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory.
"Trading in the Zone"
By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset.
This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one.
"The Wealth of Nations"
Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics.
In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society.
For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit.
"The Go-Giver"
Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories.
self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals.
The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver."
The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market.
"The Zurich Axioms"
A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management.
The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets.
For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets.
"Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side"
Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies.
In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly.
I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books.
"How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities"
And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities.
For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal.
"Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe"
A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets.
The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles.
If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say.
"Master the art of Trading"
By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible.
This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques.
"The Intelligent Investor"
a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing."
The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation.
I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage.
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I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
Risk/Reward Ratios 101In trading, the risk/reward ratio stands as the beacon guiding every trader's decisions. But what exactly is this ratio, and how does it define your success in the market?
In this article we will describe how risk/reward ratio affects your trading performance.
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Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio:
At its core, the risk/reward ratio quantifies the balance between the potential gain and the potential loss in a trade. It’s a critical tool that aids traders in choosing trades wisely, ensuring they opt for opportunities that promise high rewards while keeping risks minimal.
Calculating the Ratio:
The calculation itself is straightforward. By dividing the potential loss by the potential profit, traders can gauge the attractiveness of a trade. For instance, if a trade has a potential loss of $5 and a potential profit of $15, the risk/reward ratio would be 1:3, indicating that for every unit of risk, there's the potential for three units of reward.
Implementing the Ratio in Trading:
Successful traders plan their trades, setting predetermined entry and exit points. This strategy allows to calculate the risk/reward ratio accurately, ensuring trades with favorable ratios.
For instance, consider a scenario where a trader aims for a 15% profit and sets a stop-loss at 5%. By maintaining a discipline of setting targets based on market analysis rather than arbitrary numbers, traders can achieve a consistent profits.
The Synergy with Win Rates:
Combining the risk/reward ratio with win rates elevates a trader's strategy. A higher win rate indicates more successful trades, further enhancing the overall profitability. For instance, a trader with a 60% win rate can afford a lower ratio, say 1:1 minumum, as the majority of their trades are profitable.
The Power of the Risk/Reward Calculation:
The true power of the risk/reward ratio lies in its ability to provide traders with an asymmetric opportunity. This means that the potential upside is significantly greater than the potential downside, leading to more profitable trades over the long term.
Keeping Records for Improvement:
Maintaining a trading journal is crucial. By documenting trades, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of their strategies' performance. Analyzing these records aids in adapting strategies for different market conditions and asset classes, leading to refined decision-making.
In conclusion, mastering the risk/reward ratio is paramount for every trader aiming for consistent profitability. By understanding, calculating, and implementing this ratio alongside win rates, traders can make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and ensure sustainable success in the volatile world of trading. So, remember, in the world of trading, it's not just about how much you win; it's about how much you win concerning what you risk.
PUT TO BED: Trading VS GamblingIt’s a big debate that runs the financial market.
Is trading gambling?
Well I’m going to try put it to bed in just a few sentences.
There are two types of gambling.
Gambling by chance and total randomness like slot machines, lotteries, Bingo, Wheel of Fortune and flipping coins.
And strategic gambling which allows you elements of control of coming out with a probabilistic chance of winning.
I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Game #1: Trading and Poker: Skill, Strategy, and a Bit of Luck
In poker, each player gets a unique hand of cards.
To win, players must devise a strategy based on their understanding of the game, their observation of their opponents, and their willingness to take risks.
Players can choose to play, bet or fold.
The same principles apply to trading.
Traders have their ‘hand’ in the form of markets to choose to trade.
To yield profit, they must understand market trends, observe competitors’ behaviours, and manage risks.
In poker, one needs to know when to fold and when to bet aggressively.
In trading we have stop losses to get us out of the trade.
We have take profits to bank our wins.
We have volume choices of how much to buy or sell.
And we have the choice to stay out completely.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience, which are crucial in trading, where emotional decisions can lead to significant losses.
Game #2: Trading and Roulette: Understanding Probabilities
Roulette is largely a game of chance where players bet on numbers, colours, or sets of numbers.
You choose whether you want to bet on red, black, even, odd, specific numbers and so on…
Although the outcomes are random, players can use probability to guide their decisions.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
But instead of placing chips on certain numbers, we place deposits (margins) in the hopes of a probable outcome.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack: Playing Against the Market (House)
Blackjack involves strategic decisions, where players decide to ‘hit’ or ‘stand’ based on their current hand and the dealer’s visible card.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn.
In trading, technical analysis serves a similar purpose by predicting future market movements based on past data.
Bet too high with trading and you stand to lose a lot more.
And if you can’t count with Black Jack, then you have a much bigger disadvantage to the game.
If you don’t have strong and stringent money management principles, then good luck trying to maintain, preserve and protect your portfolio.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing: Know your horse!
Horse racing involves choosing the right horse based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
This is like trading. You need to understand each market you trade.
It has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You also need to know which market is conducive for your trading portfolio.
And you need to choose the right stock or asset to trade based on its performance history, current market conditions, and other factors.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting: Predictive Analysis and Risk
Sports betting also works similar to trading.
You need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, home and away records, and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to know your team players, strategy and likelihood of who is to win what game.
Traders also conduct similar analyses, studying companies’ financial health, market trends, and technical indicators to predict market movements.
And as always, there are both risks that need to be calculated and managed for high probability successful outcomes.
So next time when someone tells you trading is just gambling. You tell them, they are right but it’s strategic gambling rather than gambling by chance.
The Mind of an Ego Trader – 10 ActionsWe always hear of the two most dangerous states of trading.
Fear and greed.
But I think there is one more state, that really drives a trader to financial collapse.
EGO.
Ego is thinking you’re always right where you ignore risk and caution.
It’s the voice in your head that tells you to make risky choices because you believe you know better.
To overcome being an ego trader, we need to go inside the mind of one.
Let’s start…
Ego traders overtrade
One of the most common pitfalls of ego trading is overtrading.
This is the act of buying and selling markets way more than you should.
They believe that the more they trade, the more profits they will make.
Solution:
Adopt a well-defined trading strategy and stick to it. You need to know how and where to enter your trades with strict risk management.
Remember, quality should always be prioritized over quantity.
Ego traders like to revenge Trade
Ego traders refuse to be wrong.
They’ll take a trade in one direction, bank a loss.
And then immediately get in again, but in the opposite direction – to make up for losses.
Their goal is not to trade well but to recoup any losses ASAP.
This behaviour is often driven by the ego’s inability to accept a loss. And this will drive them crazy until they blow a big portion of their account.
Solution:
Acceptance is key.
Every trader is going to take losses.
You need to take the loss (see it as the cost of trading), and come back the next day.
Take a step back, analyse the situation objectively, and stick to your trading plan.
Ego traders ignore risk management
Egotistical traders think like this.
“I want to grow rich quickly and refuse to only bank 3% to 4% of my portfolio per trade”.
They instead risk 5%, 10% and sometimes go full port.
They have this invincibility complex, that the more money they risk the more likely they’ll build their account quickly.
But this is reckless and your portfolio won’t last long. This will often lead to disproportionate losses.
Solution:
I sound like a parrot by now.
Always adhere to your risk management rules.
Determine your risk tolerance, set risk-reward ratios for your trades, and never risk more than you’re willing to lose on a single trade. You know this!
Dismiss Market Analysis
Ego traders are emotional.
They mainly trust their feelings, their jiminy cricket voices and their instincts over solid and proven market analysis.
This will obviously lead to discretionary trading decisions, which will eventually lead them with no strategy, no discipline, no rules, and no portfolio.
Solution:
Become a trading machine.
Think like a robot and always base your decisions on thorough market analysis.
This includes both technical analysis (price trends, indicators, etc.) and fundamental analysis (economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors).
Ego traders blame everything
Ego traders often blame the market, their broker, their children, the media, or unexpected news for their losses.
You need to grow up and take on the mature approach. Every financial decision and action you make, is solely your responsibility.
Solution:
Take responsibility for your actions.
Understand that the market is unpredictable and losses are a part of trading.
Don’t trade if you’re feeling distracted,
Don’t trade if you’re feeling you’ll blame something or someone.
Learn from your mistakes and learn to humble yourself before the market does.
Ego trader are trend top and bottom pickers
These are the guys that literally try to ‘predict’ bottoms or tops.
They go against the current trend, and instead guess that the price will turn from here.
They give you every reason why the market will turn.
They know privy info that no one else does (even though all info is in the public domain).
They know strategies and indicators that make these predictions (even though all indicators are based on past data).
They see and feel out of their asses about change in trends.
And when they’re wrong (which most times they are), they find every reason, news event and indicator to guess when the market will turn.
This usually results in entering at a bad price and subsequently facing a huge loss.
Solution:
Leave the tops and bottoms.
Seriously, ignore the first 10% of the bottom. Leave 10% of the top.
Claim the 80% market move when the trend has confirmed and is showing strong momentum.
Enjoy going with the trend not against it.
Ego traders over leverage
It confounds me that traders want more leverage.
They show off about 20 times, 50 times up to 500 times.
You know what that means right?
You can lose 20, 50 or 500 times the money you put in.
Leverage is a double-edged sword.
You desire the big wins and only think of the big wins.
When then you are wrong (and you will be), you end up losing a colossal amount.
Solution:
Use leverage responsibly.
Lower the leverage, the better you can manage your risk and reward management.
Ego traders disregard stop losses
Stop losses are designed to limit a trader’s loss on a position.
However, there are two types of ego traders.
The ones that trade naked (without a stop loss) and the trade goes heavily against them where they lose their hat.
Then there are the ones that put in their stop loss. But then they move their stop loss FURTHER away where they can risk more.
Once this happens, they marry into their trade.
And they’ll keep moving the stop loss away again and again and again and then BOOK.
Gone.
Solution:
First rule – Always set a stop loss.
Second rule – NEVER move your stop loss where you can risk more.
Super important.
Ego traders dismiss discipline
They have major commitment issues.
They choose their days and times.
They trade now and then when they feel like it.
And this dismisses the discipline of taking every trade, one needs to take to build a consistent portfolio.
Solution:
See trading as a business. See trading as a job.
See your trading strategy as your boss.
Work accordingly like your life and livelihood depends on it.
Discipline is key in trading.
Maintain your discipline and eventually it’ll turn into integration.
Then you’re sorted.
Ego traders fail to adapt
The market is constantly changing.
There are always new markets.
There are always new platforms.
There are always new brokers.
There are always new innovations and features.
And yet ego traders, stay put.
You need to learn to adapt to market changes.
You need to constantly update yourself as a trader, your strategy, your watchlist and stay with the times.
With discipline, a clear plan, and a bit of humility, traders can better navigate the markets and improve their chances of success.
Let’s sum up the Mind of an Ego trader so you know how to overcome it.
Ego traders overtrade
Ego traders like to revenge Trade
Ego traders ignore risk management
Dismiss Market Analysis
Ego traders blame everything
Ego trader are trend top and bottom pickers
Ego traders over leverage
Ego traders disregard stop losses
Ego traders dismiss discipline
Ego traders fail to adapt
Decoding DeFi MetricsIn Decentralized Finance (DeFi), deciphering the wealth of new projects can be akin to navigating uncharted waters. However, amidst the chaos, fundamental analysis stands as a beacon, guiding investors and traders towards discerning the true value of DeFi assets.
1. Total Value Locked (TVL):
TVL, the sum of funds nestled within a DeFi protocol, provides a vital glimpse into market interest. Whether measured in ETH or USD, it illuminates a protocol's market saturation and investor confidence.
2. Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S Ratio):
In DeFi, just like traditional businesses, evaluating a protocol's value against its revenue stream offers a unique perspective. A lower P/S ratio suggests undervaluation, indicating a potential investment opportunity.
3. Token Supply on Exchanges:
Monitoring tokens on centralized exchanges unveils market dynamics. While a surplus may hint at sell-offs, complexities arise due to collateralized holdings, necessitating nuanced analysis.
4. Token Balance Changes on Exchanges:
Sudden shifts in token balances on exchanges signal imminent volatility. Large withdrawals hint at strategic accumulation, underscoring the importance of tracking market movements.
5. Unique Address Count:
More addresses usually imply widespread adoption. But beware! This metric can be deceptive. Cross-reference with other data for a clearer picture.
6. Non-Speculative Usage:
A token's utility is paramount. Assess its purpose beyond speculation. Transactions occurring outside exchanges signify genuine use, a testament to its value.
7. Inflation Rate:
While scarcity is a virtue, a token's inflation rate demands attention. Striking a balance between supply growth and value preservation is crucial, emphasizing the need for a holistic evaluation approach.
In the intricate DeFi landscape, these metrics serve as the foundations of strategic decision-making. Each data point unravels a layer of complexity, empowering investors to make astute choices. As you delve into the world of decentralized finance, armed with these insights thrive in the boundless universe of DeFi possibilities! 🚀💡
Cryptos vs. Stocks: Pros and Cons for TradersIn recent years, we've seen a surge in different ways to invest and grow our money. Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are a big part of this. They've become a hot topic, with a total value of over $1.8 trillion. But we shouldn't forget about traditional investments like stocks. In this article, we'll compare these two options to help you decide which might be better for you.
Let's start with a quick look at what cryptocurrencies and stocks are.
Cryptocurrencies: The New Digital Money
Cryptocurrencies are a relatively new type of digital money. They began with Bitcoin in 2009, created by someone using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Since then, there have been over 18,000 different cryptocurrencies created, and they're all worth more than $1.8 trillion in total.
Cryptocurrencies come in many forms. Some, like Bitcoin and Litecoin, act as digital coins for buying and selling. Others, like Monero, Dash, and Decred, focus on privacy. There are even meme coins like Shiba Inu and Floki Inu that started as internet jokes. Plus, there are digital governance tokens like UNI, LINK, and AAVE that play key roles in various cryptocurrency systems. These digital currencies can work in different ways, like using complex math problems for mining (proof-of-work) or relying on validators for coin creation (proof-of-stake).
Stocks: Owning a Piece of Companies
Stocks represent your ownership in publicly-listed companies. These companies go public to raise money from regular folks like you and me. You can buy and sell these shares through online brokers, such as Robinhood and Schwab.
In recent years, there has been a big increase in the number of publicly-traded companies. In the United States alone, there are over 4,000 of them. Together, these companies are worth more than $50 trillion in the US, and globally, all the stocks add up to over $93 trillion.
Now, let's look at what sets stocks and cryptocurrencies apart:
Ownership
When you own stocks, it means you own part of a company. That makes you a shareholder, and you get to share in the company's successes and failures. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, don't give you ownership in any company.
Profits
Stock ownership can earn you a cut of a company's profits. They might send you some of that profit through dividends or buying back your shares. With cryptocurrencies, profits come mostly from the value of the cryptocurrency going up or from rewards you get for helping run the cryptocurrency's network.
Rules
Stocks play by strict rules, especially in the US. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) makes sure that publicly-traded companies follow these rules and share all the important info with their shareholders. Cryptocurrencies have a bit more freedom, often with no one really watching over them. They're global, and it's easy for them to get listed on big exchanges.
So, whether you should choose stocks or cryptocurrencies really depends on what you want to do with your money, how much risk you can handle, and how you feel about the rules. Stocks let you own a piece of a company, share in the profits, and follow strict rules. Cryptocurrencies offer a chance to make money if their value goes up and often have a bit more freedom but less oversight. Both options can be good, but you need to know what you're doing and be careful with your money.
Trading Crypto vs. Stocks: A Side-by-Side Look
Trading in both stocks and cryptocurrencies has its similarities and differences. We'll break down these two trading worlds, including fundamental, technical, and price action analysis, while also highlighting the key differences in trading regulations.
Fundamental Analysis
In both stocks and cryptocurrencies, fundamental analysis involves examining important internal data. For stocks, this means looking at factors like earnings and user growth. In the world of cryptocurrencies, it's all about metrics such as total value locked (TVL) and ecosystem growth.
Technical Analysis
Traders in both markets rely on technical analysis. This involves scrutinizing charts and using indicators like moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI).
Price Action Analysis
Price action analysis is yet another technique shared by both markets. It involves studying chart and candlestick patterns to figure out market sentiment and potential price movements.
Trading Regulations: A Different World
When it comes to trading regulations, stocks and cryptocurrencies couldn't be more different:
Stock Trading Regulations:
Securities Exchange Act (1934): It established the SEC, introducing regulations such as corporate reporting, insider trading, and exchange registrations.
Investment Advisors Act: This one governs investment advisors, including regulations for compensation.
There are other notable laws such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Dodd-Frank, and the Wash Sale Rule.
Cryptocurrency Regulations:
Cryptocurrencies are relatively new, and as a result, they face limited regulatory oversight. This lack of regulation has created challenges, including scams and pump-and-dump schemes within the industry.
Pros and Cons: Cryptos vs. Stocks
--Cryptocurrencies--
Pros:
Global Accessibility: Cryptos allow for borderless trading without the constraints of international stocks.
Variety: With over 18,000 coins, there's a plethora of options for traders.
High Volatility: Cryptos can be highly volatile, offering potentially larger trading opportunities.
Cons:
Limited Regulation: Cryptos face minimal regulatory oversight, resulting in challenges like scams and pump-and-dump schemes.
--Stocks--
Pros:
Regulatory Safeguards: The stock market benefits from well-established regulations that help deter illicit activities.
Diverse Catalysts: Stocks respond to various factors like management changes and earnings reports, providing valuable insights.
Transparency: Companies make public disclosures, ensuring investors have access to comprehensive information.
Asset Variety: Stocks offer a wide array of choices, from small caps to mega-caps across various sectors, allowing for effective risk management through diversification.
Cons:
Market Manipulation: Stocks can be susceptible to market manipulation.
Economic Downturns: They are affected by economic downturns.
Liquidity Issues: Some stocks may face liquidity problems.
Why Stocks Might Have an Edge
In several aspects, stocks hold certain advantages over cryptocurrencies. Stocks benefit from a well-established regulatory framework, which acts as a safeguard against illicit activities. Moreover, the stock market generally witnesses fewer instances of scams compared to the cryptocurrency realm . Investors and traders in the stock market enjoy access to comprehensive and reliable information about companies due to public disclosures.
Stocks offer a diverse selection of assets, encompassing companies of varying sizes and spanning across diverse sectors of the economy. This variety enables traders to implement sophisticated diversification strategies to effectively manage risk within the stock market.
Final Thoughts
The decision between trading stocks and cryptocurrencies is a nuanced one, dependent on your trading objectives and preferences. Both asset classes have their unique characteristics and appeal to different investor profiles.
In conclusion, the choice between trading stocks and cryptocurrencies is influenced by individual preferences, risk tolerance, and trading goals. Both markets hold immense potential, but they also come with distinct characteristics and challenges. Achieving success in either arena necessitates a profound understanding of market dynamics, diligent risk management, and a clear alignment with your investment objectives. Make informed choices to thrive in the ever-evolving world of trading.
20 Trading Checklist in 2024In just two months, we are coming to the end of 2023.
If it's been a year of learning to trade and getting to grips with everything.
Then I have a 20 Trading Checklist for you to kickstart 2024.
Print it, save it and repeat this whenever you need a Jimney Cricket by your trading side.
You go this!
Love what you do
Trust the process
Never miss a trade
Don't fall for scams
Ask trading questions
Don't allow distractions
RE-evaluate your watchlist
YOU CAN ONLY GET BETTER
Celebrate taking each trade
Never extend your stop loss
Stop overthinking everything
Save 15 minutes a day to trade
Boost your trading knowledge
Screenshot every trading setup
Find the best time that suits you
Only follow your trading signals
Journal and jot down every trade
Follow your own trading time-line
Accept when market trends change
Deposit money to trade every month
Let me know if this helps.
T
DOUBLE TOP FORMATIONWhat is a double top?
This pattern appears when the price reaches some levels, makes a high, then goes down for a while. Then it comes back to about the same level and draws the same high at about the same level as the previous one, and then turns around and goes down. With a double top, this pattern is a reversal pattern and favors, subsequently, a downward price move.
What should I pay attention to?
Let's say you had some buys open; you saw a double top and, accordingly, decided to exit. So, how can you determine whether it is a quality pattern or not?
First of all, you should pay attention if there is a resistance level at the level of the double top. In this case, we have one top, the second one and we can pay attention to the fact that there is a level nearby. And it almost overlaps with our double top.
This gives additional strength to the pattern and it becomes more significant. Secondly, there should be at least six candlesticks between the two tops. That is, the tops should not literally follow each other.
There should be at least six candles between the tops. So that it visually looks like 2 peaks, not 2 or 3 candles next to each other. But at the same time take into account that if the second peak is very far from the first one, then this pattern is most likely not a pattern and it is just a coincidence, and most likely you will not see any strong trend reversal. A correction, perhaps, but no more than that. Accordingly, the farther the first top is located from the second one, the weaker the pattern is. This is because the significance of the chart formation is simply lost in time. Therefore, try to select trades in which the second touch is lower than the previous one, if possible.
And in case the reversal does take place, you can catch a very big movement. And if the space on the left looks filled, then accordingly, you should not count on any strong reversal. But strong global reversals are not so common, so it is not easy to catch them in any case. As they appear by themselves quite rarely.
How to enter the market?
Let's look at an example. As we know, this pattern is a reversal pattern. We have formed the first top, then the second top was formed and the price went up. You do not know what to do, to enter or not to enter, when to enter, where to put stop loss and take profit.
First, we build a trend line of the previous trend. Moreover, it should capture the lows that preceded the second top. In this case, we had an upward trend, so our trend line will be built approximately like this. Next, we put a horizontal line at the level of our last low that preceded the second top.
We will enter, as you guessed, at the breakdown of our trend line or neckline. And our target will be: the distance from our last low to the level of our last tops.
Entry on the breakoout of middle low. And you can put, of course, pending orders, you do not have to sit in front of the screen and wait for this breakout to happen and the stop-loss will be approximately at the level of our two tops, a little bit higher. And this is how the trade will look like.
UNDERSTANDING MOVING AVERAGEHello traders! 👋 🤗 Today I will try to explain to you guys another perspective and the concept of moving average. This is one of the oldest technical indicators and, perhaps, the most popular and most frequently used, as a huge number of other indicators are based on it. A lot has been written about moving averages. And at the same time, despite the abundance of information and respect for this instrument on the part of almost all traders, the issue of trading on MA is poorly covered. What do we often see about moving averages? Most of it is crossover. When one sacred line crosses another, we should enter the trade or something like that. I would like to show one simple method of working with moving averages.
A few important points
Only Simple Moving Average (MA) on closings is used. When working with moving averages, only 2 parameters are important: PERIOD AND SLOPE ANGLE . Any crossings and other things are not taken into account. Only MAs with a high period (from 100 and above) are used.
Thus, we can see the general direction, which looks a bit smoother and more obvious than a regular chart. In general, it is considered that if the price is above the moving average, it is an upward trend; if it is below the moving average, it is a downward trend. At the same time, the higher the period of the moving average, the more long-term the trend is. For example, with a moving average period of 21, we can say that if the price is above it, it is a rather short-term upward trend.
If the moving average period is much bigger, say 100, and the price is above the moving average with a period of 100, then we can say that there is a solid upward trend. If the price is below the moving average with a longer period (for example, 100), then we realize that there is a solid downward trend.
In other words, the longer the period of the moving average, the more inflexible it is because it has to calculate the average value for the last candles (in our case, 100). This is a lot. And, accordingly, the longer the moving average period, the more important it is in the long term. Our job as traders is to squeeze everything out of the movement. The least job is to stay at breakeven and don’t blow the account. That is why large MA periods are used. And do not believe the words when they say that MAs are lagging.
For the demonstration we will use 3 timeframes: 4 hoursly - 1 daily - 1 weekly. As practice shows, the approach described below works even in the combination of 5 minutes - 15 minutes - 1 hour. This for day traders.
Examples of moving averages
As an example, we will now show the chart of one asset from 3 timeframes as already mentioned above:
Weekly (MA 100) will show us the direction of the global trend
Dayly (MA 200) the medium-term trend
4-hourly (MA 100) the actual entry points and setting Stop loss and Take profit
The essence of working with big MAs is very simple: we can trade only in the direction of MA movement, and at the entry point, the price should be on one side of all MAs (above or below it) on all 3 timeframes. In this case, the mandatory condition is that the angle of slope of the MA of the highest period must be strong, approximately 45 degrees.
AUDCHF weekly
Go down to the daily timeframe and apply MA 200. We highlight the areas where the price is also below the MA 200 on the daily timeframe. We also take into account the slope angle of the current MA. We highlight this movement with a green block.
AUDCHF daily
AUDCHF 4H
Now we go to H4 and apply MA 100. This is the timeframe for a possible entry point. We select the block where the price is below the MA on the current timeframe. We cut off all the moments when the price was above the MA, highlight the price movement below the MA with yellow blocks
3 potential areas where we can look for entry points to open short positions. Let's take a closer look at each area.
First opportunity
Second opportunity
Third opportunity
Of course, on live trading, things would be much more difficult. But as you can see, we got at least two very clean trades that screamed to take them.
Another one
EURJPY weekly
EURJPY daily
EURJPY 4H
Closer look
Again in hindsight everything looks good, but the purpose of this post is to help you build and understand a slightly different method of applying moving averages if you use them. As you can see, trend trading is actually much easier.
What about sideways movements?
If the trend is more or less clear, and as soon as the SMA on the higher timeframe (say, daily) shows a more flat angle of slope for the last 5–10 bars, we have a sideways movement. You can try to take advantage of this on the lower timeframes.
In this post I tried to show how to systematize and demonstrate my approach to trading on moving averages. Of course, there are many methods of trading on short-term moving averages, on the combination of multi-period MAs on one chart, etc. Sometimes it is hard to describe in words what is "right" angle of slope, and the overall price movement, I guess all this comes only with personal experience.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Trading Commandments: The Decalogue for Success 📈🔟💼
In the world of trading, there are timeless principles that serve as guiding beacons for traders, both novice and seasoned. These commandments are the keys to unlocking success, managing risk, and navigating the financial markets. In this comprehensive guide, we unveil the "10 Trading Commandments," each accompanied by real-world examples to reinforce their importance. Join us on this journey to master the art of trading, enriched with practical insights and wisdom.
The 10 Trading Commandments
1. Thou Shalt Know Thy Risk Tolerance 📊
Understanding your risk tolerance is fundamental. Your trading decisions should always align with your comfort level for potential losses.
Risk-Averse Trader
2. Thou Shalt Have a Plan and Follow It 📝
A trading plan is your roadmap to success. It should encompass your goals, strategies, and risk management rules.
The Disciplined Trader
The Power of the Decalogue
3. Thou Shalt Diversify Thy Portfolio 🌐
4. Thou Shalt Continuously Educate Thyself 📚
5. Thou Shalt Embrace Risk Management 🛡
6. Thou Shalt Keep Emotions in Check 🧘
7. Thou Shalt Adapt to Changing Markets 🔄
8. Thou Shalt Not Chase Losses 🚫
9. Thou Shalt Master Patience 🕰
10. Thou Shalt Keep Records of Thy Trades 📖
The "10 Trading Commandments" are not mere guidelines; they are the foundation upon which successful traders build their careers. These principles, when consistently followed, enable traders to navigate the markets with confidence, wisdom, and resilience. Whether you're just starting your trading journey or are a seasoned pro, embracing these commandments can lead to a more prosperous and rewarding trading experience. 📈🔟💼
What do you want to learn in the next post?
WWIII's Portfolio!The best asset allocation for a possible WWIII would depend on a number of factors, including the severity of the conflict, the duration of the conflict, and the impact of the conflict on the global economy. However, some general principles can be applied.
First, it is important to consider the potential for hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a rapid and sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services. It is often caused by war or political instability. In a hyperinflationary environment, cash and other assets that are fixed in nominal terms, such as bonds, can lose value rapidly.
Second, it is important to consider the potential for asset seizures. In times of war, governments may seize assets from their citizens, especially foreign assets. This is why it is important to have a diversified asset allocation that includes assets that are held in different countries and jurisdictions.
Food, Energy, and Tech Supply Chain Disruption!
Third, it is important to consider the potential for supply chain disruptions. War can disrupt supply chains and make it difficult to obtain essential goods and services. This is why it is important to have a diversified asset allocation that includes assets that are not essential for everyday living.
Based on these principles, some potential asset allocations for a possible WWIII include:
Cash:
Cash is a liquid asset that can be used to purchase goods and services. However, it is important to note that cash can lose value rapidly in a hyperinflationary environment.
Precious metals:
Precious metals, such as gold and silver, are often used as a hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, precious metals can also be volatile and can lose value in times of economic uncertainty.
Real estate:
Real estate can be a good hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, real estate is also illiquid and can be difficult to sell in times of economic uncertainty.
Commodities:
Commodities, such as oil and wheat, can be a good hedge against inflation and currency instability. However, commodities can also be volatile and can lose value in times of economic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrencies:
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are a new asset class that has the potential to be a good hedge against asset seizures . However, cryptocurrencies are also highly volatile and can be risky.
It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all asset allocation for a possible WWIII. Your best asset allocation will depend on your circumstances and risk tolerance.
Here are some additional things to consider when developing an asset allocation for a possible WWIII:
Your time horizon:
If you are investing for the long term, you can afford to take on more risk. However, if you are investing for the short term, you may want to focus on more conservative assets.
Your risk tolerance:
How much risk are you comfortable with? If you are not comfortable with losing money, you may want to focus on more conservative assets. However, if you are more comfortable with risk, you may be able to generate higher returns by investing in more risky assets.
I hope this article helps you to rebalance your portfolio for a possible tension escalation.
A historical review on WWII:
World War II Timeline of Events and Potential Motives
1933
* January 30: Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.
* March 24: Germany leaves the League of Nations.
1935
* March 7: Germany remilitarizes the Rhineland.
* October 3: Italy invades Ethiopia.
1936
* March 7: Germany remilitarizes the Rhineland.
* July 18: Spanish Civil War begins.
* October 25: Germany and Italy form the Rome-Berlin Axis.
1937
* July 7: Japan invades China.
1938
* March 13: Germany annexes Austria.
* September 29: Munich Agreement signed, allowing Germany to annex the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia.
1939
* March 15: Germany occupies the rest of Czechoslovakia.
* August 23: Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed between Germany and the Soviet Union.
* September 1: Germany invades Poland, marking the beginning of World War II.
* September 3: Britain and France declare war on Germany.
Potential motives for World War II
*German expansionism:** Hitler's goal was to create a Greater German Reich, which would include all German-speaking people in Europe.
*Japanese imperialism:** Japan was seeking to expand its empire in Asia and the Pacific.
*Italian fascism:** Benito Mussolini wanted to create a new Roman Empire and to restore Italy to its former glory.
*Soviet expansionism:** Joseph Stalin wanted to expand the Soviet Union's sphere of influence in Europe.
*Failure of appeasement:** The Western democracies' policy of appeasement, which involved giving in to Hitler's demands in order to avoid war, ultimately failed to deter him from invading Poland.
Other factors that contributed to the outbreak of World War II include:
*The rise of nationalism and militarism in Europe: After World War I, many countries in Europe were experiencing economic and political instability. This led to the rise of nationalist and militaristic movements, which promised to solve their problems and restore their countries to their former greatness.
*The economic crisis of the 1930s:** The Great Depression caused widespread unemployment and poverty in Europe. This led to social and political unrest, which made it easier for extremist leaders like Hitler to come to power.
*The weakness of the League of Nations:** The League of Nations was created after World War I to prevent future wars. However, it was weak and ineffective, and it was unable to stop Hitler and other aggressors from invading their neighbors.
World War II was a devastating conflict that resulted in the deaths of millions of people. It was caused by a complex combination of factors, including the rise of nationalism and militarism, the economic crisis of the 1930s, and the weakness of the League of Nations.
When You Should NOT Trade! 11 Reasons to Take a Step BackYou have two choices each day you open your trading platform.
To trade or not to trade.
There are circumstances that will rise where you won’t trade for that day. Then there are times where you should NOT trade at all. And then there are situations where you need to avoid trading.
You know when to trade. Now here are a couple of 11 reasons to take a step back with trading.
After a bunch of knocks
After you take a couple of losses, it might feel natural to want to jump right back in.
You don’t want to lose.
You want to recoup your losses.
You want to ride the prominent trend.
You have to learn to resist this temptation. Whether you buy or sell, if the market is in a bad state or environment – you’re likely to lose your positions.
So take a step back and come back tomorrow.
The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies
I’ve told you many times.
Any occurrence where you are NOT following your proven strategy is deadly.
Revenge and impulse trading (to try and make up for any losses) is a dangerous path.
Not only for the day.
But it scars and sets a precedent for you to do it in the future.
In the medium term, it’s a surefire way to harm your portfolio.
Learn to recognize and control these tendencies.
Rather take a step back and come back, the next day, with a more rational and logical approach.
The absence of clear setups
If you don’t have any high probability trades that have lined up, forget trying to take a trade.
This is like sailing with a destination in mind without a compass.
Trades will come. The markets will always be there for you tomorrow.
So wait them out…
Emotional instability
Emotions when trading are a dangerous trait to have.
Anxiety, excitement, ego, fear, greed or distress can cloud your judgment.
If you’re emotionally unstable, you need to take a step back and learn to control your emotions.
Drop your risk, ‘till you no longer feel a loser or winner.
Continue backtesting until you regain your confidence.
Refrain from trading until you learn to balance your emotions.
Can’t afford it – forget it!
If the funds you’re using for trading are essential for your survival or well-being, this is a red flag.
You are going to be highly dependent and emotionally attached to your funds.
I say it over and over…
Do not trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
It creates an unhealthy pressure that can influence your trading decisions.
Don’t know it – Don’t trade it.
If you lack a solid understanding of markets, methods or money management – you’re not ready to trade.
You need to understand the above along with the market dynamics, the costs and process of instruments and how your trading and charting platform works.
Education is key here. Learn, learn, learn.
When you have less questions and more answers, then it might be a better time to take the trade.
Low probability setups
When the market is moving nowhere slowly.
Or the markets are moving wildly with high volatility – this might be a time to not trade.
The risk and uncertainty of the market is high.
And this will result in only low probability trade setups lining up.
If you really want to trade them, because you have nothing better to do – fine.
But at least risk LESS.
Risk between 0.5% to 1% of your portfolio instead of the full 2%.
When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable
Physical well-being also plays an important role.
Your mental state affects your trading performance.
If you’re not in the right mindset, consider taking a break.
Avoid trading if you’re not feeling well, exhausted, angry, or you’re feeling unstable.
Get your mind right, recover and see the markets with healthier and happier eyes.
That made sense to me :/
No clear setup
Sometimes, you might analyse the markets.
And you’ll see nothing.
Then, you’ll re-analyse and look EXTRA carefully.
You’ll look and look and look until, somehow a trade presents itself.
I’m telling you now, this is a dangerous time to take the trade.
A trade should stick out like a sore thumb (according to your strategy).
If it doesn’t, then you’re trying to see something that most likely is NOT There.
Trade based on sound, proven and strong analyses, not via imagination and hope.
During major economic announcements
This point is more related and significant to Forex traders.
If you see a high impact economic announcement, report, meeting etc…
It might be a good idea to take a step back, and skip trading for the day.
I’m talking about NFP, Unemployment, GDP, FOMC, Interest and Inflation rates etc…
Without a trading plan
A well-crafted trading plan is your roadmap.
It’s your game-plan to make a probability prediction on a potential outcome.
You need to eat, breath, shower and sleep with your trading strategy.
If you don’t have one, don’t trade until you develop a plan and are ready to stick to it.
Right so, now you now when to take a step back and NOT trade.
I’ll sum them up here for you…
After a bunch of knocks
The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies
The absence of clear setups
Emotional instability
Can’t afford it – forget it!
Don’t know it – Don’t trade it.
Low probability setups
When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable
No clear setup
During major economic announcements
Without a trading plan