Beyond Technical Analysis
Will Silver Close at the High This Year?In September, we discussed the potential of silver forming a 'Cup & Handle' pattern, similar to what we observed with gold at the end of 2023. We saw how gold performed in 2024.
If the Silver can settle at around here at the end of this year, establishing this formation, we should be able to see the rising trend of the Silver in 2025.
In this tutorial, we will discuss why silver may close higher towards end of the year.
Silver Futures & Options
Ticker: SI
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $25.00
Micro Silver Futures
Ticker: SIL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Ethereum - This Is The Last Buying Opportunity!Ethereum ( BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ) is still super bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the correction of about -50% which we saw over the past couple of months on Ethereum, market structure and price action is still overall bullish. Ethereum is currently creating a bullish break and retest with a potential move of +60% towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $2.000, $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
THE TRUMP EFFECT - how markets reacted, BUY EURCHFTrader Tom, a technical analyst with over 15 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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Tesla - This Will Be A Wild Ride!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is deciding about its future in the next 8 days:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During the next 8 days - until this monthly candle closes - we will see whether or not Tesla will enter the next major bullrun. Currently Tesla is trading at the important triangle breakout level after dropping about -20% this month so far. The future of Tesla will depend on this breakout.
Levels to watch: $160, $200, $270
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Post Election Bitcoin and Crypto Market UpdateThis is a shorter version of my video yesterday, just recapping what I've been seeing and forecasting in these markets.
Didn't expect to see the rally to new ATH so quickly.
Or the DXY to push up higher at the same time...
But here we are breaking and apparently holding new ATH, so I do think we continue to push higher. Even if we get one more sell off, to re-test the ATH as support.
Yesterday's pump was part short-squeeze, and part SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in BTC ETF inflows.
In this video we look at BTC and SOL, which I believe will lead the next leg of the Bull.
Also an interesting speculative study on the Pi Cycle Top, and the idea we could see a double top or dual-cycle in the next 12 months, like we did in 2013.
As well as recapping why my targets are $100k (conservative), $150k (base case), and $200k (aggressive) along with confluent targets based on measured moves from the Bull Flag breakout.
Let me know what you think, and if I missed anything!
Brett
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 3📈🌐 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 3: Revisiting the Big Chart and Preparing for the Next Breakout 🚀💡
chart:
Hey everyone! FX Professor here, and it’s time to revisit what I call my 'Big Chart' as we continue our exploration into Bitcoin’s future price movements.
Back in March 2023, Bitcoin was trading below $25,000, and today, we’re looking at how the landscape has shifted and what we can expect moving forward.
In this post, we’re sticking purely to technical analysis—focusing on Bitcoin’s halving cycles, my 3 major key trend lines, and the overall technical structure that has proven reliable over the years.
Key Insights:
Halving Cycles & All-Time Highs:
Historically, all-time highs have followed 548 to 565 days after a halving event. Could we see similar patterns play out in 2025?
Trend Line Mastery:
My Big Chart tracks three critical trend lines that have been instrumental in identifying breakout and support zones. These levels continue to offer crucial guidance.
February 2024 Breakout:
Earlier this year, we had a major breakout in Februar y, leading to a test of the $73,000 level. After some consolidation, what comes next?
What to Watch Next:
We’ve seen Bitcoin break out above major resistance levels after finding strong support around $58,800. This support is part of an ascending trend, meaning it will rise as the price continues upward.
As we could be approaching the $100,000 zone, the question is:
Will we hit all-time highs (peaks) earlier than usual? (pattern says end of 2025).
With a strong possibility of achieving this 400 to 450 days after the halving, we could see this sooner than expected (550 days historical pattern)
Major Levels:
Support:
Currently, the key support level is at $58,800, but as the price trends upward, this level is ascending and will be rising as time goes by.
Resistance:
The next major resistance is at $105,800. A break above this could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. This will be the third attempt (the green 3, if you know you know!)
The journey continues! Follow along as we track Bitcoin’s path toward new highs. Drop your comments below, and let me know what you think!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Part 1:
Part 2:
and always remember:
WHAT'S FLOWING: METALS | FX | CRYPTOS | COMMODITIESXPDUSD (Palladium): Bearish outlook. The chart indicates potential resistance around the current price levels, suggesting a downward move may be in play.
AUDCHF: Bullish. Positive price action with upward momentum signals the potential for gains, as AUD strength seems to dominate CHF.
CADCHF: Bullish. Similar to AUDCHF, CAD is showing strength against CHF, pushing higher and creating opportunities for bullish plays
GBPAUD: Bearish. GBP appears to be under pressure against AUD, with price action leaning towards a decline, signaling a potential short opportunity.
JPN225 (Nikkei): Bullish. Japan's index is holding strong and showing signs of further upside, making it a favorable option for long positions.
LNKUSD: Bullish. Link (Chainlink) is experiencing upward momentum, making it a strong candidate for a continuation in price appreciation.
XLMUSD: Bullish. Stellar Lumens (XLM) is also looking strong, with buying pressure indicating potential gains in the near term.
CCZ2024 (Cocoa Futures): Bearish. Cocoa futures seem to be in a downtrend, with bearish signals suggesting lower prices ahead.
Delta Airlines: Placing A Huge Options TradeHey, guys. Not a perfect video here, but wanted to lay down an options trade I built in NYSE:DAL . I have another analysis I made on TradingView a long time back on Delta (Found here: ) and it seems like after months of brutal range trading, the stock now wants to move to higher levels.
After having some already successful trades in the name, I am taking more upsized risk here and placing a big, long-term options trade on this name. I am comfortable holding these long term calls over time as I will be able to roll them down the line (unless Delta is sitting at gross levels in 2025) if they are not performing how I had hoped. I also am happy to take in a solid amount of cash while I wait. Here's to happy flights all across the country and the world!
Hope you enjoy the review, and best of luck out there!
WHAT'S FLOWING (TRADE & TRAVEL): TRUMP IS PRESIDENT / STOCKS UP USDCHF (Buy): Strong buy signal; we see accumulation near key support levels, potentially indicating upward momentum.
EXY (Sell) : Bearish sentiment as the chart suggests downward pressure, possibly moving toward recent lows.
USDILS (Sell): Selling signal; volume profile hints at continued selling as the asset moves lower.
GBPUSD (Sell): Selling pressure is present here as well, with potential for further downside.
XAUUSD (Sell): Gold is showing bearish activity, possibly due to stronger USD, with indicators suggesting further declines.
Brent Crude (Sell): Oil is also under pressure, with signs pointing toward a downward move, likely influenced by recent supply data.
US2000 (Bull): Bullish outlook on this index, signaling potential upward moves as support levels hold.
HK50 (Sell): Strong selling sentiment on Hong Kong’s index, with steep drops in price action, indicating a risk-off sentiment in Asian markets.
Bitcoin and Crypto US Election Day Forecast and Bullish TargetsHi everyone,
In this video I break down how my Bitcoin forecast over the last few weeks has been playing out (nearly exactly) and where we likely go from here...
I think Bulls are in control, and we'll see Bitcoin at ATH to $80k in the coming weeks...
We review an article form POMP today, saying that who wins the election isn't really that important, and showing very bullish outomes after every previous election cycle...
But I do think a Trump win is likely, and will propel Bitcoin higher faster.
We look at the DXY and how that's rolling over nicely here, potentially taking us to "Bitcoin Rally Zone" and even the Vall-halla "Bitcoin Super Pump Rally Zone" where prices can really PUMP!
I'm hearing more and more people talk about an early left-translated cycle and parabolic blow-off top by the end of THIS year, followed by an everything bubble bursting and deflationary bust.
This is where a Trump win could save the long-tail of the 4-year cycle, by saving the economy.
If nothing else, a Trump win would be more pro-crypto because it's not jus him but a very pro-crypto cabinet with RFK, Elan Musk, Cythia Lummis, and more.
But we're not here to talk about politics!
It's the markets reaction to the news, that matters.
I've said 100 times THIS year and EVERY year... "Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news".
Lastly, I review my now Top 11 factors that could push Bitcoin to $100, $150k, and even $200k.
And the charts showing the same... Interesting that the 1.618, 2.618, and 3.618 almost perfectly align with $100k, $150k, and $250k.
I also show how these targets can be achieved by measured moves of the Bitcoin Bull-Flag breakouts, using 2 different scenarios.
Let me know what you think below, and as always would appreciate a like, tip or share with someone you like in the crypto world!
I we can get to 100 likes, I'll do more of these on a regular basis.. and do an end of week post-election breakdown.
Thanks, and thanks again to TradingView for making this great platform we all use.
Brett Fogle
Moonstream Crypto
Election Day Trade: GBPUSDToday marks a significant moment in the United States—Election Day—and as traders, we know that market sentiment can be influenced by political events. This morning, I took a strategic position on GBPUSD, entering the trade at 1.29623. With the current price now at 1.30266, the trade is showing promising momentum.
The volatility associated with elections can create unique opportunities. In this case, the British pound seems to be gaining traction against the dollar, likely reflecting optimism or reactions to the unfolding political landscape. The key to successful trading on days like today is staying vigilant, managing risk, and being ready to adjust your strategy based on incoming news and market reactions.
As always, I emphasize the importance of having a solid exit plan. With the market currently moving in my favor, I’m assessing the best points for taking profits while also remaining aware of potential reversals as the day progresses.
What trades are you taking today, and how are you navigating the uncertainties of Election Day? Share your thoughts and strategies in the comments below! Your perspective could spark valuable conversations among fellow traders.
(All Trading Ideas are shared for Educational Purposes. Trade the market at your own risk.)
Trade Recaps: EURUSD - SHORT, GBPJPY - SHORT, 05/11/2024EU Bias Analysis: Although Price is deeply discounted on the HTF's and the 4H has started trending higher, A shift of 1H structure from a 4H Bearish Order Block presented an opportunity for short positions as price corrected into IRL.
Grade: High Risk
GJ Bias Analysis: Price is trading at a weekly premium and is establishing a 4H bearish trend after a break to the downside and correction higher, pending a continuation lower. Short entries aligned with the current 1H bearish range and entry confirmation was received after a TBL sweep and 15M distribution lower.
Grade: Low Risk
Possible 200+ Pips On ContinuationIn this setup, we're targeting a continuation of the swing sell, awaiting a clear signal of bearish momentum. Our entry confirmation will come once price breaks and closes below the 1.6442 level. After this confirmation, we’ll look for a retracement into the premium level of the intra-trend bearish rally, specifically within the 1.6540-1.6400 range.
From this level, we aim to enter a sell position, targeting the second and third support levels. This setup projects a minimum of 150 pips with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.
For a more detailed breakdown, check out the video analysis.
Previous Call:
Elections aside, AUD/USD still looks oversoldImplied volatility has spiked for FX majors ahead of the US election, and it really could go either way for AUD/USD depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. But how much downside is left for the Aussie when taking market positioning, China data and the latest RBA statement into account?
MS
Adobe - Triangle Textbook Long Setup!Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is breaking out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating a rally of +2.000% over the past decade, Adobe created its all time high back in the end of 2021. The consolidation ever since has been quite expected, especially looking at market structure. But if Adobe breaks out of the current triangle, we will see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $440, $560
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
DXY + EURUSD Analysis (4th Nov 2024)Here is my analysis for the DXY and EURUSD for the edification of a learner.
As we know the US elections are coming up, so we are likely going to see some manipulation and volatility this month. It will be very interesting. I caution anyone to not take high leveraged swing trades during this time unless they are in a gambling mood.
- R2F
Natural Gas Goldmine: Are You Ready to Take the Red Pill?Unlocking the Natural Gas Goldmine: Are You Ready to Take the Red Pill?
In the ever-shifting sands of the financial markets, the truth often lies buried beneath layers of noise and confusion. Today, we delve into the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, a powerful tool that reveals a compelling opportunity in the natural gas market. What if I told you that the signs are aligning for a potential rally? But heed this warning: This does not mean to blindly dive into long positions. Instead, we stand poised, awaiting the moment of a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe—a moment that transforms potential into profit.
The Market Signals: A Gathering Storm
The data speaks volumes. Commercial traders, the real players in this game, are currently positioned at a major extreme in long holdings—the highest they’ve been in over three years. This is not mere coincidence; it’s a clear indication that something significant is brewing beneath the surface.
As we analyze the net open interest, we observe a phenomenon I like to call the “Bubble Up.” This surge occurs when Commercials outpace Large Speculators, and such dynamics often foreshadow market turning points. The whispers of a shift in power are growing louder, and it’s time to listen closely.
Furthermore, we cannot overlook the increasing open interest during this multi-week decline. But we must ask ourselves: Who is driving this increase? The answer is clear—commercial traders are loading up on long positions. This is a bullish sign, indicating confidence in a market reversal.
The Premium Charge: An Ominous Signal of Change
Adding another layer to our bullish thesis is the current premium charge in the market. We observe that the front months, extending out to April, are trading at a premium compared to later delivery months. This indicates a strong demand for immediate delivery—a sign that the market expects an uptick in prices.
But let us not forget the supplementary indicators that further bolster our long stance: the Price Oscillator Indicator Value (POIV), %R, and the Ultimate Oscillator are all aligning in favor of the bulls. They whisper of impending change, urging us to prepare.
The Seasonal Anomaly: A Moment of Reflection
Yet, as we pursue this truth, we encounter an obstacle. The traditional seasonal patterns suggest a decline until February, but the extreme positioning of commercial long traders casts doubt on this warning. Sometimes, the path to enlightenment requires us to look beyond conventional wisdom.
In this moment, we find ourselves at a crossroads. The insights we’ve gathered are akin to a revelation, a glimpse into the potential future of natural gas.
The Choice is Yours
Will you take the red pill and see how deep the rabbit hole goes? Embrace the knowledge, or remain in the shadows. The markets are waiting, and so is your potential.
Welcome to your awakening.
Take the Red Pill: The EURO COT Long Play RevealedTake the Red Pill: The EURO Long Play Revealed
"Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain, but you feel it." – Morpheus
Most traders move blindly through the markets, buying and selling on impulse, on what they think they know. But for those who understand how to read deeper signals, patterns begin to emerge—patterns that separate the merely active from the truly informed. Right now, if you're willing to look, Commitment of Traders (COT) data is showing us something intriguing about the EURO. This is your red pill: a glimpse into how those in the know see beyond the chart.
The Setup: A Commercial Long Play
Behind the scenes, commercials—the ones who have true skin in the game—have loaded up on longs, reaching a 26-week extreme in positioning. Not only that, but they're holding their longest exposure in three years, a sign that those with the best intel in the market believe in a coming shift. Meanwhile, the "small specs," often driven by emotion rather than insight, have gone nearly max-short. Historically, this group isn't just wrong; they’re almost predictably wrong.
The result? A textbook setup. But if you’re looking to take advantage, know this: jumping in without discipline is how people get burned. We wait for a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe. Nothing less. Because only the disciplined get to see beyond the shadows and reap the rewards.
The Undervaluation: Gold, Treasuries, and the EURO’s True Position
If you look at the EURO in comparison to gold and treasuries, something stands out—it’s undervalued. This doesn’t show up in headlines or make for easy soundbites, but for those who know how to look, it’s a flashing signal. And there’s a seasonal edge, too: the EURO’s tendency to rally through mid-December. It’s another puzzle piece that, when added up with positioning extremes and market sentiment, paints a picture that only a few will truly grasp.
Supplementary Signals: Layers of Confirmation
For those still seeking confirmation, additional indicators are lining up: %R, Stochastic, and even bullish momentum divergence are signaling alignment. But understand this—the market doesn’t reward the impatient. We wait, observe, and move only when the trend change is confirmed on the daily chart.
The Truth Beneath the Surface
This is no ordinary trade idea. It’s a blueprint to help you see the hidden dynamics that move the market. Those who look only at surface price action may be blindsided by the moves yet to come. But for those willing to see beyond—those ready to know what the COT data, the fundamentals, and the seasonal tendencies are saying—this is a rare opportunity.
Now, if you’re ready to see what the rest don’t, follow Tradius Trades. You’ll be one of the few with eyes open, equipped to move with purpose.
---
> "I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth."
COT Red Pill: Canadian Dollar Primed for a Long The Red Pill of Trading: Illuminating the Canadian Dollar's Long Potential
In the vast and enigmatic expanse of the financial matrix, truths often lay hidden, obscured by layers of complexity and uncertainty. Today, I offer you an opportunity—an invitation to take the red pill and awaken to the profound insights that the market has to reveal. We turn our gaze to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a currency poised for potential transformation, waiting for the discerning trader to recognize its worth.
The Commercials
Let us begin with the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, a powerful tool that unveils the positioning of the market's key players. The commercials—those seasoned entities whose knowledge and resources run deep—are currently positioned significantly long. Their holdings approach levels last seen in August 2024, a time of significance with extreme long positioning that heralded a remarkable four-week upswing in prices. This is no mere coincidence; it is a bullish signal, a whisper from the market that should not be ignored.
However, wisdom demands patience. To embark on this journey, we must first wait for a confirmed trend change entry trigger on the daily timeframe. The fundamentals are ripe for a rally, yet we must ensure our actions are grounded in calculated strategy rather than impulsive enthusiasm.
Open Interest: A Window into Market Dynamics
As we delve deeper into the market's secrets, we uncover the insights offered by open interest analysis. During the recent multi-week downtrend, we have witnessed a spike in open interest—a phenomenon that warrants our attention. Here, we must pose a critical question: who is driving this increase?
in this case it is the commercials, accumulating long positions and enhancing their stake, we find ourselves looking at a robust bullish indicator. The increase in open interest driven by those with intimate market knowledge signifies a potential shift in the market’s direction. This insight is a crucial key to unlocking the doors of opportunity.
The Contrarian’s Edge
But the revelations do not end there. Investment advisor sentiment has plummeted to bearish extremes, a classic contrarian signal that savvy traders know to watch. As the masses succumb to pessimism, history has shown us time and again that opportunity often lies in the shadows of despair.
The WillVal indicator further illuminates our path, revealing that the Canadian Dollar is currently undervalued compared to Gold and Treasuries. This mispricing signals an impending revaluation—a chance for the discerning trader to seize the moment. Seasonal trends indicate that we should anticipate price movements upward as we approach January, and the positioning of small speculators(the usually wrong public)—excessively short—presents yet another contrarian opportunity, one that the wise trader can capitalize on.
The Choice Before You
You now stand at a significant juncture, a crossroads where knowledge and opportunity intersect. The insights I have shared are akin to taking the red pill—a revelation that exposes the true nature of the market, laying bare the possibilities that await those willing to see.
As you contemplate your next move, remember that successful trading is not about surrendering to the whims of the crowd but about embracing the hidden truths that lie beneath the surface.
Join me on this journey into the unknown. Follow Tradius Trades, where we dissect the intricate patterns of the market and equip you with the insights necessary to navigate this complex landscape. The truth is out there, and together, we can unveil the secrets of trading with clarity and conviction. Choose wisely, for the matrix of opportunity awaits your command.