ReCap from this morning!trade explanation going over why i had a bullish bias this morning. going over my loss of -$300 to a win of +$1,162 putting me at a profit of $866 for the morning.
Beyond Technical Analysis
2025 ICT Mentorship: Institutional Market Structure Part 22025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 3_Institutional Market Structure Part 2
Greetings Traders!
In Lecture 3 of the 2025 ICT Mentorship, we dive deep into the core principles of market structure, focusing on how institutions truly move the market. Understanding this is essential for precision trading and eliminating emotional biases.
Key Insights from the Lecture
🔹 Distinguishing Minor vs. Strong Swing Points – Learn to differentiate between structural noise and true market shifts.
🔹 Marking Market Structure with Precision – Objectively analyze price action to refine your decision-making process.
🔹 Institutional Market Structure Techniques – Align with smart money to enhance accuracy and consistency.
Why This Matters
Mastering market structure allows traders to anticipate price movement, reducing impulsive trades and reinforcing a disciplined approach. By integrating institutional strategies, we position ourselves for more accurate and confident executions.
Stay focused, keep refining your skills, and let’s continue elevating our trading game.
Institutional Market Structure Part 1:
Enjoy the video and happy trading!
The Architect 🏛️📊
Profit and Learn: Is the U.S. Dollar Still Money?In this episode of Profit and Learn, we dive into the future of the U.S. dollar. Is it still the undisputed king of global finance, or is its dominance fading? With rising competition from alternative assets, central bank policies, and global de-dollarization efforts, we explore whether the dollar remains the ultimate store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account.
Join us as we break down market sentiment, policy threats, and the role of crypto and commodities in shaping the dollar’s future. Is the dollar “too strong” for its own good, or are we seeing the early signs of its decline?
💰 Is the dollar still money? Tune in to find out!
xauusd video analysis for the weekXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025
This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns.
1. Fundamental Drivers
A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold.
B. Monetary Policy and Inflation
Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices.
Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold.
C. Central Bank Demand
Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand.
2. Technical Analysis
A. Short-Term Signals (February–March)
Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary).
Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier).
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally.
Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets.
Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level.
3. Momentum Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.
Moving Averages (MA):
50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support.
200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart.
4. Chart Patterns and Trends
Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure.
Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920.
Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest.
5. Scenarios for the Week
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000.
Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.
Bearish Scenario:
A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850.
Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively.
Bullish Targets/ Resistance
2890
2906
2928
2934
2959
2972
2987
3023
Bearish/Support
2872
2857
2841
2807
2781
FunctionX - The Lost Video $FXUSDIt's crypto archaeology as we uncover an ancient tomb from nearly 13 hours ago and discover a lost video which was never disseminated… Who knows what the future would be today if this video had been seen by traders --..Also ..today.🤔
Some things we perhaps can know, had this video been watched by anyone living today...
-Perhaps fewer undies would be in an uncomfortable twist
-Perhaps a brand new bald spot may never have formed on someone's head
-Perhaps I would be sleeping in a bed instead of terrifying micro-sleeps every 10 or 12 minutes right here in this chair...
While we may be able to offer opinions about what is presented in this lost archive, we leave it to you, the audience, to determine the truth for yourself...
Viewer discretion advised:
CRYPTO:FXUSD
Breakout Stock PRFX - Here is how I made 40% when stock is outSo, I have been tracking about 3500+ stocks that alert me when news is with some criteria such as float and relative volume. So today, my tracker alerted me at 8.42 am EST that PRFX had news and was potentially breaking out. What I did I got in at $3.96 and sold when scalper indicator signals the Trending Down.
I normally only buy 1 time per stock per day and don't chase. I make sure I will always have a 10% stop loss and 20% take profit, and with a breakout, I manually stretch the take profit limit order by another 20% and bring my stop loss above entry by 10%.
AMP Futures - Tune bar replay with adjustable intervalsIn this video we will demonstrate how to adjust time intervals using Market replay.
Brief explanation of this mornings trade using Order Flow.A Brief explanation of my ES trade this morning using Order Flow and Foot print chart. I explained the foot print chart to my understanding so far using this method.
USOIL READY TO EXPLODE?! DON’T MISS THIS CRUCIAL MOVE!📊 USOIL (Crude Oil) Analysis – February 17
What’s up, traders? Mr. Blue Ocean FX here with another deep dive into the markets, and today, we’re breaking down US Oil (Crude Oil) and the major opportunities setting up. Let’s get straight into it.
📉 Weekly Time Frame Insight
• Last week’s candle closed with exhaustion, printing a low at 70.30 but losing volume compared to previous bearish moves.
• Key Resistance: 71.55 area was broken, signaling potential bullish momentum.
• Impulse Move: Price pushed as high as 79.44 (Jan 13th), breaking past the 77.90 October high before retesting that level.
📊 Daily Time Frame Setup
• USOIL is currently ranging in a consolidation zone, and we are at the lower region of this range.
• Buy Zone Identified:
• Three bottom touches suggest a strong support level.
• Higher low structure forming at 70.58, above the previous Feb 6th low of 70.34.
• If bulls hold this zone, we could see a strong push to the upside.
🕒 4H Time Frame Execution Plan
• Structure Confirmation: After a deep retracement, price failed to print a new low.
• Liquidity Sweep: A wick below 70.16 may have stopped early buyers before price reclaimed.
• Entry Plan:
• Buy near 70.68 (entry level).
• Stops below the recent low.
• Targeting 72.04, then 73.32, with further upside potential to 74.21+ if consolidation breaks.
• Channel Formation: USOIL is respecting an upward-sloping trend channel that could continue bouncing before a major breakout or breakdown.
🚀 What’s Next?
If bulls maintain control, we could see an explosive breakout, targeting higher liquidity zones above 74.21. However, if price breaks down, we may see another leg lower before a final push up.
🔥 What do you think? Will oil rally higher or break down? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
📢 If you found this breakdown valuable:
✅ Boost this post
✅ Share it with a fellow trader
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Let’s catch these moves! 🚀💰 #USOIL #CrudeOil #Trading #Forex #MarketBreakdown
Tracking Crisis with This Ratio – US Markets vs GoldThese are the 3 major crisis over the last 25 years. The dot com, 08 and the recent 9% inflation crisis.
Before each crisis get into its full swing, I have observed there was a surge in gold.
In this tutorial, I will share:
1) Why a surge in gold before each crisis?
2) What are the key variables that we should be looking out for this year? and
3) I hope I don’t sound too ambitious in discussing how to time this move?
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
#SPY ANALYSIS - SHOULD YOU GO SHORT OR LONG?ANALYSIS OF SPY TREND. ARE WE GOING MUCH HIGHER FROM HERE?
are we showing weakness? were expected rate cutes priced in? are whales buying or selling?
should you short or long or stay out of the market? All this answers should be more clear after watching. Let me know what you think and how you are approaching this market...
My Gussian Channel Trade With Deep-Algo CodeAs provide in the video I just show some part of my code to make smart trade
4 AM Market Madness: FX Heats Up & XRP Just Vibing⚠️ Disclaimer: It’s 4 AM, and I am running purely on caffeine, adrenaline, and bad decisions. This analysis may or may not reflect the same level of rational thought as my well-rested daytime takes. If you’re looking for polished, level-headed market insight—come back in daylight hours. Otherwise, buckle up.
⚠️ Advisory: upon further analysis after making this video, I think things are a little bit worse than I make them out to be… I think the entire market is coming down at least a little bit today, XRP in particular I think it's headed for two dollars maybe less.
⚠️ Revised Advisory: Revisory: upon further observation of this logic defying, obviously manipulated heavily institutionally held electric monopoly money, it's clear that it's just gonna do what it's gonna do and there ain't no rhyme or reason it's gonna stay up because it wants to and that's all there is to it - does it look like it's gonna crash? No, it's not. Does it look like it's gonna rally nope, you're wrong sorry. Is it gonna range forever? No, you idiot. Whats the matter with you..
(and I'll do I'm more in depth analysis on XRP and the rest of them when I'm awake)
Original:
FX is creeping toward a breakout like a cat stalking a laser pointer, while XRP sits back like a zen master, completely unbothered. I break it all down, even though I probably should be breaking down in bed instead.
⏩ Skip to 21:23 for XRP analysis!
🐂 Function X (FX/USD) – Ready to Run?
🔹 Why This Chart is Getting Spicy
Months of accumulation—it’s been playing the long game.
Volume creeping up = people are waking up to this thing.
Thin resistance above $0.18—if it moves, it might just teleport.
🔹 Where’s This Thing Headed?
$0.18 = The Boss Battle – If it wins, we’re in business.
$0.20-$0.25 = First Stop – The logical next target.
Full Send? If momentum holds, $0.40-$0.50 isn’t out of the question.
🔹 Potential Plot Twist
If $0.167-$0.168 doesn’t hold, it might dip first.
Low liquidity = Expect chaotic price swings.
Volume confirmation is key—don’t just FOMO in.
🫡 XRP – The Calm in the Storm? (Starts at 21:23!)
🔹 XRP’s Mood Right Now:
Stable. Suspiciously stable.
Daily chart looks solid ✅
Weekly chart hints at a potential retracement 🤔
🔹 Two Ways This Could Go
Bullish Case: 🚀 Breaks resistance → new trading range.
Cautious Take: Might dip before the next leg up—watch for a better entry.
Final Thoughts: 4 AM Brain Says Hold Onto Your Butts! 🏎️
FX/USD is building up steam, and if it breaks $0.18-$0.20, it could send hard. Meanwhile, XRP is sitting back, unbothered, just watching the drama unfold.
⏩ Skip to 21:23 for XRP analysis!
⚠️ Again, this is a sleep-deprived analysis. If I wake up and completely contradict myself, pretend you didn’t see this.
Trade smart, don’t FOMO, and let’s see where this ride takes us! 🎢🔥
RTY NQ AND ES FUTURES QUICK LOOK AND LEVELS TO WATCH FORQuick look at ES NQ and RTY futures levels and areas of interest
The RBA just cut by 25bp: Instant ViewThe RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
SELL CADJPY - Tricky market conditions!!Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 16 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
We are proud to be an OFFICIAL Trading View partner so please support the channel by using the link below and unleash the power of trading view today!
www.tradingview.com
What are your thoughts about my Zillow Analysis?I do believe Zillow will touch $98.04 then either push through, consolidate, or reverse. What are your thoughts?
Function X ($FXUSD) Setting Up for a Breakout
In this video, I analyze Function X COINBASE:FXUSD and explain why I believe it's on the verge of a major move. After a prolonged accumulation phase and strong post-selloff recovery, FX is now building momentum toward a key resistance test at $0.18. The low-liquidity environment ahead suggests that once this level is cleared, price action could accelerate quickly.
Currently trading around $0.1679, FX has shown steady volume increases over the past few days, and the order book remains thin above current levels. If price continues this structure, a breakout toward $0.18-$0.20 is likely, with potential for larger expansion toward $0.25+.
Key Market Observations & Trade Setup
🔹 Function X (FX/USD) Technical Breakdown
Price currently at $0.1679, steadily climbing after strong accumulation.
Gradual volume increase, signaling growing interest from buyers.
No major resistance until $0.18, making it the next key test.
Low liquidity past $0.20—breakout could trigger a sharp move.
🔹 Critical Price Levels & Targets
Next test zone: $0.18 (short-term resistance).
Breakout potential: If $0.18 clears, price could move toward $0.20-$0.25.
Higher timeframe targets: If momentum persists, $0.40+ remains a realistic upside zone.
🔹 Risk & Considerations
If price struggles near $0.167-$0.168, a short-term pullback toward $0.163-$0.164 is possible.
*And actually, that just happened here as I am reviewing this summary before I post it… This might be your last buying opportunity before the start of a major rally*
Market liquidity remains thin—expect volatility on the next leg up.
Watching for volume confirmation on approach to $0.18 resistance.
Final Thoughts
FX/USD is building strength and moving toward its breakout level at $0.18. The current uptrend remains intact, and volume trends support further upside. If FX clears resistance, a rapid move toward $0.20-$0.25 could follow, with even higher targets possible if momentum holds.
For now, I’m watching closely for confirmation on approach to $0.18—the next critical level for breakout validation.
OTE MODELSo, this is the second play after the first play, in previous pos, the goal was achieved,
a quick recap - a 15 min play into an OTE zone on the 15m TF, you can see that in the current video
now after that move, as seen in the video i am hoping that price would continue it move upwards into the OTE zone for the higher TF which is the 4h and the 1h
now we wait and see how price react on London open tomorrow God willing
ES FUTURES QUICK LOOK AT TODAYS ACTION AND AREAS OF INTERESTFirst Video on Tradingview. Quick ES look at major levels and what to expect soon with a possible push up and a big selldown
Nat Gas Weekly Update: 2/17/25Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover
Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again.
I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over.
This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025!
So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around.
Keep it burning!
GOLD MELTDOWN INCOMING? THE ONLY BREAKDOWN YOU NEED!Welcome back, traders! Mr. Blue Ocean FX here, breaking down the latest price action on gold (XAUUSD) . Let’s dive straight into the technicals and see what the market is telling us.
Market Overview
Gold has been on a strong bullish run since December 30th, surging from the 2620 area all the way to 2942, marking an aggressive impulse move. However, last week, we saw signs of exhaustion, particularly with a rejection wick forming on February 10th, signaling potential downside pressure.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily chart, price action printed a double top around 2929, followed by a strong bearish engulfing candle that closed on Friday. This indicates a potential momentum shift from buyers to sellers. We also placed a key level at 2881, marking the recent wick low. This level is crucial because if price breaks below it, it would confirm sellers stepping in with conviction.
H4 Timeframe Analysis
Scaling down to the 4-hour (H4) chart, we can see a clearer structure:
• Price spiked high, retraced, and formed a higher low before another push up.
• The latest move shows a break and retest pattern, where price broke structure and is now testing previous support as resistance.
• While the H4 candle looks promising, we are waiting for a solid close to confirm the momentum shift before executing a trade.
H1 Timeframe Execution Plan
On the 1-hour (H1) chart, here’s our trade setup:
1. Waiting for a pullback after the breakdown.
2. Looking for price to form a lower high at 2896.
3. Entry confirmation comes with strong bearish volume and a small retest.
4. Short position at 2896, with a stop loss just above the 2906.55 wick high.
5. First target: Recent lows near 2881 for a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio (RRR).
6. If price breaks below the daily low, we could see further downside continuation.
Final Thoughts
This setup is in play, and we are watching how price reacts at key levels. If the market confirms our bias, this could be a solid high-probability short trade.
🔥 If you found this breakdown valuable, don’t forget to:
✅ Like & Subscribe for more trade ideas
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Let’s catch these pips! See you in the next breakdown. Boom! 🚀💰
