2/27/25: Nat Gas Report day/weekend set up:The video goes over my reasoning for the cold back half of March and front of April. The models do not see it, but I do!!! I show a good graphic of price vs storage (natgasweather.com). And as we shall soon see, it going to be all about storage in about six weeks!!!
Today’s report was in line with industry experts and their projections for a larger than average withdrawal of 261 BCF of NG, bringing total storage to 1840 BCF. This more than 400 Bcf below last year’s bottom of 2,259 Bcf. They are also below the five-year average for end-of-winter storage of 1,870 Bcf. Storage inventories at 1,840 Bcf have already been drawn down by nearly 2,100 Bcf since the start of winter. That is more than 600 Bcf faster than last winter’s drawdown during the same period. As shown, the inverse relation between storage and pricing should keep prices elevated through the shoulder season. The increase in heating demand, electric power load, and historic LNG exports are eating into exiting supplies, as producers continue to show restraint and discipline.
Last week EQT released their quarterly guidance stating that they do not plan to increase rig activity and will continue to throttle output on a day to day basis to meet spot demand. They are following a program of “tactical restraint”. EQT Corp. is not looking to invest in natural gas production growth in 2025 as it expects demand to eventually outpace supply and push prices higher in the coming years. The strategy differs from the one Expand Energy Corp. stated today. That it plans to add 600 MMcf/d of natural gas production by the end of the first quarter as part of a broader strategy to grow output and extend the reach of its marketing as fundamentals improve. After curbing output and delaying turning wells to sales last year in response to stagnant natural gas prices, the company plans to bring online 90 wells by the end of March as demand has strengthened. Most of this gas is headed to the Gulf coast to feed LNG facilities. Unlike EQT, who serves North East US and Mid-West US demand centers. Who are under supplied and have a lack of pipeline infrastructure.
So mid and long-range pricing look positive for NG, but it is the short term where our bets are made. So, in the short term the weather will play a dominant role in the price structure. I expect a delay in the cold coming for later March and April, but my belief is still there, below average cold. My previous target for entry was $3.65 to renter my long position. Although earlier this week I had waivered after the weather models started to print a colder period for March 11-15, and was looking to enter a bit higher to $3.80-$3.85 level, but has since backed down. It is looking that the Tropical forcing is going to delay the SSW event talked about here by a week or so. It is still showing up in the long range, but the shorter range is starting to print warmer. I am now of the thinking that the original idea at the $3.65 level is the place to enter my longs. Once the models pick up the SSW event influenced cold around day 13,14, and 15. I’m back in long again!
I entered four $3.85 puts Monday night after exiting my March puts and have held onto them after seeing the models run warmer for the next 15 days. I will decide tomorrow if I will exit them or hold them over the weekend. I entered at the $4.30 level and know when to walk away with money in the hand, but I will still wait until tonight’s and tomorrow’s mid-day runs to assess. If I do decide to hold over the weekend I will let it be known.
Happy trading and good fortune
Keep it Burning!
Beyond Technical Analysis
BTC UP! IMPOSSIBLE DOWN. Bag Go!!! Great Trend Analysis on DailyI'm inexperienced so PLEASE DO correct me if I am wrong I have heard horrible tales of a BEARISH DIVERGENCE? More like BULL RESURGENCE!!! more like BEARISH SUBMERGENCE!!!!
If you STILL can't see it ALL BTC has to do is EXPLODE in the next 16 hours, I'm talkin directly up NO pullbacks NO hesitation so just keep an eye out for that I hope you enjoyed my prophetical analysis short video thank you
XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts:
1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February)
A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion)
Support Levels:
Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD
Indicators:
RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish.
MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals
Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact
2. Fundamental Drivers
Fed Minutes Impact:
The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold
Dollar Dynamics:
The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher
3. Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Case:
A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD
Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher
Bearish Risks:
Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD
Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains
4. Strategic Takeaways
Entry Points:
Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD
Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks
Risk Management:
Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility.
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BTC at a Make-or-Break Level Bitcoin is at a tipping point. If it stays under GETTEX:87K , we could see a drop to $80,806, and if that doesn’t hold, $75K is on the table. But if BTC breaks through GETTEX:87K , momentum could push it to $88,800, and a move past $92,121 would signal the correction is over and the uptrend is back. This is a key moment—let’s see where it goes.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
NVIDIA's Momentum Analysis: Strong Fundamentals & TechnicalsUnpacking NVIDIA's powerful Q4 2025 performance with record revenue of $39.3B (up 78% YoY) and explosive Data Center growth of 93%. Technical analysis reveals strong support at the 50-day MA ($130-$134) with resistance at the all-time high ($153.13). Recent price action shows bullish momentum with key technical indicators pointing to continued strength. Essential viewing for investors navigating NVIDIA's post-earnings trajectory.
BUY GBPNZD - Simple and logical Price Action!!Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 16 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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Bitcoin's Trend Trap: The Shoe Has Spoken
Why This Bounce Won't Stick & Where Price is Headed Next
Bitcoin's recent price action is fooling a lot of people into thinking that the worst is over—but the charts are telling a different story. This latest analysis focuses on trend caps, resistance confirmations, and why Bitcoin is more likely to fail its recovery attempt rather than sustain a new rally.
The video dives into chart physics and explains how trend lines aren't just drawn arbitrarily—they reveal how price interacts with past levels of support and resistance. Using a line of closings and crossings, Hollywood demonstrates how price will tend to respect these self-reinforcing levels. Bitcoin’s recent attempt to push upward is running into trouble because it's failing to break key levels that would indicate actual bullish momentum.
Instead, the market is setting up for a return to test the lower support. Even if price manages a small push higher, it won’t change the overall structure—it's still heading toward the inevitable retest of lower levels, and this time, the failure will be decisive.
Know Thy Shoe. Trust Thy Shoe.
This isn’t just about Bitcoin’s price—it’s about the psychology of the market. Traders don’t want to believe a deeper drop is coming. There’s an unspoken desperation to keep Bitcoin in the $90K range, but the reality is that there’s nothing but clear air below. No real support, just a big empty space where the price should have built a foundation—but didn’t.
Hollywood’s message? Watch the trend cap. Watch the test of the floor. And when the shoe fits, wear it.
(wow, thank you ChatGPT for really good video summary from nothing but a transcript
....
Yeah, ladies and gentlemen, I didn't write all that, if this was me writing all this all the time you wouldn't get this till tomorrow or maybe next Wednesday)
Explaining why ES did what it did today!Quick explanation of Distribution Schematics, and Unfinished Business using Order Flow. No indicators just being able to see real time orders and limit orders in the market. notice how price enters into a Resistance zone and the Delta turns very negative. Green Flag for shorts.
Be patient and wait for a clear set up.
2 Minute DXYZ Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for the Next MoveWe hit our 34 target on DXY, but what’s next? If we break above 49, we could see a solid bull run. However, if weakness continues, we might test lower levels at 31, then 29, and possibly 23.50 for a deeper correction.
Watching these levels closely—what’s your outlook on DXY? Drop your thoughts below.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Quick 4-Min Tesla Analysis: Deeper Pullback or Ready for LiftoffJust wrapped up a quick Tesla analysis (under 4 min)! Right now, we could see a dip to the $289 zone before pushing higher, or a deeper move down to $250 before driving up toward $475.
Where do you think Tesla is headed next? Let me know your thoughts!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
$Tesla at a Crossroads: $330 Recovery or $259 Drop?Following MARKETSCOM:TESLA 's recent drop to $300, this analysis examines the critical support level that has recently formed and highlights $312.50 that could determine whether the stock recovers toward $330 or continues its downward trend to $259.
Bitcoin Trend Cap – Price Must Test the Floor $BTCUSD
A trend cap occurs when two bars of similar height form near the peak of a move, capping the trend and signaling that price isn’t going any higher. Bitcoin has just printed one on the 30-minute chart, rejecting off the upper Bollinger Band.
This means price is now set to return to test the floor it recently established. Many traders are misreading this as the start of a recovery, but this pattern suggests that the test will fail, leading to further downside.
Know thy shoe. The shoe will find the ground.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD CME:BTC1!
BUY NZDCAD - CAD still weak Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 16 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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USD lower, yields whacked on renewed Fed-cut betsEven as recently as two weeks ago, the thought of fed cuts were in the distant past. Yet a slew of weak data from the US since Friday including two consumer sentiment reports and a surprise PMI miss has seen markets reconsider a 25bp Fed cut in June. Today I cover bond yields, the US dollar index and futures exposure to update my dollar outlook.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
To Thine Own Shoe be True - $BTC's Other Foot is About to FallBitcoin’s Floor Must Be Lower – Chart Physics and Market Psychology at Work
In this video, I explain why Bitcoin has no choice but to find a lower floor, despite many traders believing the worst is behind us. While price is briefly going to appear to confirm support, this is just part of the process before it comes back down and breaks through it on the third test. The real focus here isn’t whether this level holds for another day or two—it’s about why Bitcoin must go lower before it can establish true support.
For a long time, Bitcoin has been floating over clear air with no real structural support. When price climbs too high without building a strong foundation, it eventually has to fall back down to fill the gaps. Right now, the market is in denial, desperately trying to hold Bitcoin in the $90,000 range, but this isn’t about what traders want—it’s about chart physics and liquidity. When there’s nothing left to hold the price up, it must seek a lower equilibrium.
Psychologically, traders don’t want to accept that Bitcoin might have to revisit $70,000 or lower to reset before moving higher. But markets don’t move based on hope—they move based on supply, demand, and liquidity positioning. Right now, there are no meaningful buyers willing to absorb the sell pressure at this level, which means Bitcoin has nowhere to go but down. Once it finally breaks through, it will likely move quickly, as there’s no real support structure beneath it.
Know thy shoe.
The shoe will find the ground.
(My sincerest apologies about the volume ladies and gentlemen. The problem which I thought I had corrected from a prior video still exists in this video. It is an issue I'm hoping Trading View can correct before too long on their end… The problem originated on my end, but there was nothing I can do after it was recorded, and I had to get this video up there - I believe it contains important time sensitive information…
Please try listening with the volume turned all the way up or perhaps with headphones until the problem can be corrected.
My system issue has been corrected for the future, but Trading View if you can, please tweak this on your end and amplify it. This video is extremely worthwhile..)
SMCI - Eyeing this for a potential reloadBEWARE - Market-wide we're seeing a potential institutional "rugpull" sort of situation after plenty of ATH's made last week. Not predicting the market's "top" but I am seeing a common theme on many charts that correlate to the S&P recent ATH and subsequent dump (especially considering it wasn't provoked by any specific news).
Also, SMCI specific, keep in mind their deadline approaching to submit the required documents to avoid de-listing. Goes without saying that this would have a huge effect on the stock if somehow they failed to submit.
Happy Trading :)
TSLA - Predictable as always. Just look for the controlled liq!We've done this countless times on this stock. I didn't touch this while we were shooting up post elections because of the "meme" factor behind Elon and all that. But once basic market dynamics came back into play, we've had at least 2 golden opportunities to play this name and they proved very successful. So going forward we're looking for a similar play!
Happy Trading :)
BTC - Basic Market Dynamics Prevail! Wait for the signs-No Rush!Even though crypto always seems to ignore basic principles of supply and demand, especially considering the strong institutional buying recently, we did expect a liquidity build was necessary - and a deep one at that.
So we're seeing that happen - and you shouldn't be scared or rushing into buying every step of this drop. Let the buyers show themselves - let the levels produce "proofs" as to where the buyers are - and from there we can start to make educated decisions as to when to enter and why we're entering.
Happy Trading :)
Timing the Markets with Consumer SentimentBusinesses and producers around the world always cheer when U.S. consumer sentiment is in the 80 to 100 zone, as U.S. consumers play a big part in the global economic ecosystem.
The United States remains the largest consumer market in the world, but since the pandemic, this index has not recovered above the 80 level.
Does it mean that, there is a risks economy to enter into a recession?
How can we use this index to time our investments and trades?
E-mini Russell Futures
Ticker: RTY
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