How Spotting Liquidity Can Help Your Trading StrategyUnderstanding where liquidity exists in the market can help enhance your trading success in a few ways:
1. It can help you understand where potential blocks of liquidation could occur. The market is often attracted to these block and will liquidate there.
2. It can help you confirm patterns that exist on you charts
3. It can help you spot new patterns which you may not have spotted previously.
Let's take a quick look at the "Liquidity Swings" indicator by LuxAlgo in this video.
Chart Patterns
How to Trade with a Momentum IndicatorHow to Trade with a Momentum Indicator
The momentum oscillator (MOM) is a vital instrument in the trader's toolkit. Designed to measure the velocity of asset price changes, it serves as a compass for traders, pointing them towards prevailing market trends. By analysing this indicator, traders can gain insights that allow them to seize budding opportunities in volatile markets. Keep reading to broaden your understanding and elevate your momentum indicator strategies.
Momentum Technical Analysis
Momentum technical analysis is a crucial aspect of understanding the financial markets. Traders and investors rely on momentum tools to identify potential trends and make trading decisions.
What Is a Momentum Technical Indicator?
While the term "momentum" is often tossed around in financial circles, its technical significance is profound. Momentum indicators are a class of technical analysis tools that quantify the strength and direction of market trends. They help traders and investors identify potential reversal points, overbought or oversold conditions, and the continuation of existing trends. These tools are based on the principle that price trends often exhibit momentum before they reverse or continue. However, there is also such a thing as a momentum oscillator.
Momentum Oscillator
The momentum indicator or oscillator (MOM) is a technical analysis tool that’s available on most trading platforms, including services like FXOpen’s TickTrader. It’s one of the best momentum indicators. The MOM displays the speed of change in a financial instrument's price over a specific time frame. You can apply the momentum indicator to forex, stock, commodity, and crypto* markets.
MOM formula = (Current Close/Close N Periods Ago)*100
By default, the indicator is set to 10 periods, but traders can easily change this in the settings tab. The calculated values are plotted below the trading chart as a single line that moves near the 0 line. If today's price is the same as it was 10 days ago, the indicator's value is plotted on the zero line. If today's price is higher than it was 10 days ago, the indicator plots above the line, and vice versa.
When trading stocks, the momentum indicator typically fluctuates between +/- 20, while for forex pairs, its range is more like +/- 0.02. The chart below provides an example of how the momentum oscillator is used on a daily GBP/USD chart.
How to Use the Momentum Oscillator
Here's a breakdown of the procedure for using the momentum indicator in trading:
Tapping into the potential of the MOM is quite straightforward. For those who swear by MetaTrader, it's as easy as venturing into the oscillators section to access the momentum indicator on MT4 or MT5. For TickTrader enthusiasts, a quick search on the list of indicators should yield the built-in MOM.
1. Zero-Line Crossover
Keeping an eye on the MOM indicator when it crosses the zero line is the most straightforward and fundamental trading technique. An upward momentum (with values above the midpoint) often suggests a potential buy signal, implying the asset is likely to continue its upward movement. Conversely, when the MOM consistently hovers below the midpoint, it indicates a sell cue, hinting at a possible continuation of the asset's downward trajectory.
Take, for instance, the GBP/USD pair. As the pair spirals downward, a consistent position below zero signals a dominant momentum steering, it further down and vice versa.
2. Divergence Trading Momentum Oscillator
The momentum oscillator is instrumental in pinpointing divergences on a chart. Essentially, a divergence arises when there's a discrepancy between the market movement and the MOM, akin to top momentum indicators like the Stochastic or RSI. It often hints at a forthcoming shift in market direction.
There are primarily two forms of divergences:
- Classic (Regular): This is used to anticipate potential trend reversals.
- Hidden: This aids in identifying the likely continuation of existing trends.
For instance, in the GBP/USD chart, we notice a hidden bullish divergence pointing to the trend's continuation and a classic bullish divergence pointing to a trend reversal.
3. Extreme Readings
Extreme readings in momentum indicators can provide valuable insights for traders by indicating potential overbought or oversold market conditions. As the momentum oscillator is unbounded, it’s harder to identify overbought and oversold conditions compared to the RSI or the Stochastic oscillator.
To do this, a trader needs to compare recent highs and lows. If the oscillator reaches a significant peak, the asset can be considered overbought and may fall soon. Conversely, if the oscillator falls to noticeable lows, the asset may be oversold and may rise soon.
In the chart above, the momentum oscillator reached a significant high, following the uptrend in the EURGBP pair. After that, the price moved down.
When using the momentum oscillator, traders incorporate additional technical indicators and filters to avoid overtrading and reduce market noise.
How to Combine the MOM with Other Technical Analysis Tools
By incorporating a 200-period EMA on the chart along with the MOM, we can discern the overarching market trend. A price positioned above the 200-period EMA is indicative of an uptrend, prompting traders to scout for bullish signals on the MOM. On the flip side, a price below this suggests a downtrend, warranting a lookout for bearish signals.
For instance, in the GBP/USD chart, we notice an upward market trajectory marked by two bullish divergence signals: a hidden one pointing to the trend's continuation and a classic one pointing to the trend’s reversal.
Conclusion
To succeed in trading, finding financial assets with momentum is key. The momentum indicator can help traders identify these assets before they make big moves, but it's important to remember that it’s not foolproof. Other technical and fundamental analysis tools are often used to evaluate market trends. To start utilising the MOM and many other tools, consider opening an FXOpen account.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
e-Learning with the TradingMasteryHub - 3 Strategies You Need
Welcome to the TradingMasteryHub Education Series!
Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Join us for another exciting lesson in our 10-part series where we dive deep into strategies that can transform your trading game. Whether you're a beginner or looking to refine your strategy, these lessons are designed to guide you on your journey to mastering the markets.
Three Proven Strategies That Can Make You a Fortune, When You Follow Them with Discipline!
In trading, having the right strategy is crucial, but even the best strategy won’t work if you don’t stick to it. Today, we’re uncovering three live-proven strategies that can potentially lead to massive gains—when executed with discipline and precision.
1. The Trend-Following Strategy: Ride the Waves
Trend-following is all about identifying and capitalising on sustained market movements. This strategy involves buying when the market is in an uptrend and selling when it’s in a downtrend. The key is to use indicators like moving averages and the ADX (Average Directional Index) to confirm the strength of the trend.
The beauty of trend-following lies in its simplicity. By aligning your trades with the market's momentum, you increase your chances of catching big moves. But remember, patience is key. Wait for clear signals before entering a trade, and always protect your position with a well-placed stop-loss to minimise risk.
2. The Breakout Strategy: Capture Explosive Moves
Breakout trading focuses on identifying price levels where the market has repeatedly struggled to break through—these are your key support and resistance levels. When the price finally breaks out of these levels, it often leads to significant moves.
To execute this strategy, use tools like the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Relative Volume (RVOL) to confirm the strength of the breakout. A high RVOL indicates that the breakout is supported by strong market participation, increasing the likelihood of a sustained move. The trick here is to act quickly but carefully, entering the trade as soon as the breakout is confirmed and setting your stop-loss just below the breakout level to protect against false moves.
3. The Mean Reversion Strategy: Profit from Market Extremes
Mean reversion strategies work on the principle that prices eventually return to their average or "mean" after extreme moves. This approach is particularly effective in range-bound markets where prices oscillate between defined levels.
To implement this strategy, you’ll need indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) or Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When the market shows signs of exhaustion at these extremes, you can enter a trade expecting a reversal back toward the mean. The key to success here is timing—enter too early, and you might get caught in a continued move against you; enter too late, and the best part of the move may already be over.
The Key to Success: Discipline and Consistency
While these strategies have the potential to deliver significant returns, they only work if you follow them with discipline. That means sticking to your trading plan, setting realistic profit targets, and most importantly, managing your risk. Remember, no strategy is foolproof—losses are part of the game. The goal is to stay consistent, manage your emotions, and keep learning from each trade, win or lose.
Conclusion and Recommendation
These three strategies—trend-following, breakout trading, and mean reversion—are time-tested and can be incredibly profitable when applied correctly. But success in trading doesn’t come from the strategy alone; it comes from the discipline to follow your plan, manage your risk, and stay calm under pressure.
As you incorporate these strategies into your trading routine, focus on maintaining a strong risk/reward ratio and a consistent approach. Over time, this discipline will build the confidence and experience you need to potentially turn these strategies into a fortune.
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Profitable Gold Price Action Strategy For Beginners
To trade this Gold price action strategy, you need to learn just 2 simple things:
support and resistance levels identification
a couple of bullish and bearish price action patterns.
In this article, I will share with you a complete guide for Gold trading with price action and reveal the best patterns for XAUUSD.
Step 1
Your First task will be to execute complete structure analysis on a daily time frame.
It means that you should identify all vertical and horizontal supports and resistances.
From structure supports, we will look for buying opportunities.
From structure resistances, we will look for selling the market.
Above, you can see how a complete Gold support and resistance analysis should look.
Step 2
Patiently wait for the test of one of these structures.
In the example above, we see a test of Support.
Step 3
Your next task will be to look for a price action pattern on an hourly time frame on one of these structures.
You should look for a bullish pattern after a test of a structure support.
You should look for a bearish pattern after a test of a structure resistance.
Here is the list of classic bullish patterns that you should look for:
falling wedge,
bullish flag,
double bottom,
triple bottom,
inverted head & shoulders pattern,
cup & handle,
ascending triangle.
Once you identified a bullish pattern, simply wait for a signal -
with horizontal patterns like a double bottom or cup & handle you should wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close above.
With vertical patterns like a bullish flag or a falling wedge, you should look for a bullish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close above.
Here is the list of classic bearish patterns that you should look for:
rising wedge,
bearish flag,
double top,
triple top,
head & shoulders pattern,
inverted cup & handle,
descending triangle.
Once you identified a bearish pattern, simply wait for a signal -
with horizontal patterns like a double top or inverted cup & handle you should wait for a bearish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close below.
With vertical patterns like a bearish flag or a rising wedge, you should look for a
bearish breakout of its trend line - and hourly candle close below.
Sometimes there will be the situation when you will encounter multiple patterns. The rule is that the more - the better.
Above, we can see 2 bullish patterns on an hourly time frame, after a test of a key daily support on Gold: bullish flag pattern and cup & handle.
The price broke the resistance line of the flag and a neckline of a cup & handle, giving us a strong bullish signal.
Step 4
Open a trading position.
Once you spotted a bearish pattern after a test of a key daily resistance, and a signal - a bearish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, sell Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line.
Stop loss will lie above the highs of the patterns.
Take profit will be the closest 4H support.
Once you spotted a bullish pattern after a test of a key daily support, and a signal - a bullish breakout of a neckline or a trend line, buy Gold on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the pattern.
Take profit will be the closest 4H resistance.
In our example, a long position was opened on Gold on a retest of a broken neckline of a cup & handle formation. Stop loss lies below the lows, TP based on a 4H resistance.
After some time, the price reached the target!
This Gold price action strategy is simple and very profitable. Try this strategy by your own and good luck in trading Gold!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
A simple Stock strategy to trade with edge!A simple, profitable strategy.
If you’re struggling to trade profitability and searching for the ‘Holy Grail’ of trading strategies, then you’re in luck. I’ve got it for you….
DON’T SHORT STOCKS!
Well, that’s it in a nutshell. I will elaborate, but please read on because this was a game changer for me. It sounds too simple. Honestly, my win/loss ratio has improved , and my hairline has stopped receding.
The simplistic rationale for long only
1. Just look at the S&P500 chart since 2010. It is statistically impossible to lose money if you only buy.
2. People want to buy stocks! It’s just a fact. Everyone in the world is investing in stocks, whether it's for their retirement, their children's ISAs, speculating through the 30 apps on their smartphones, or visiting their local bank, with the aim of beating inflation and outperforming savings accounts.
3. During the most significant event of my life, the infamous COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P500 experienced a 30% decline, causing the world to stop, businesses to close, and a sense of impending doom! The S&P is now up 60%, reaching an all-time high!
4. The buy-only mentality, when combined with simple technical analysis, can eliminate 50% of trade ideas, clear your mind, reduce 50% of stress, and, as stated in Point 1, enhance your edge.
5. Most importantly, stocks are an appreciating asset; they want to go up. A company's entire purpose is to grow!
Okay, so that’s a really simple rationale. I get that some stocks do go down during market corrections or natural ebbs and flows; we want market pullbacks. We could go into boring stats like volatility and liquidity, etc., but the key point is that stocks go up! I can’t emphasise this enough.
The simple strategy
My strategy applies to stock indexes (US500, US100, etc.) as well as individual stocks; however, indexes are easier, in my opinion. I would recommend sticking to well-known stocks that fit this complex filter. Is it likely to fail? Here are some recent stocks I have traded using this filter. McDonald's (MCD) and Go Daddy's (GDDY)
We've already decided to focus solely on long-only trades, so how do we begin? We chase momentum using these complex , simple technical tools.
1. The daily price must be above these simple moving averages (SMA): 20, 50, 100 = momentum!
2. 4-hour price above these simple moving averages (SMA) of 20, 50, 100= short-term momentum.
3. Avoid trading at major resistance levels.
4. Enter trades on a 4-hour chart; don’t over-analyse.
5. Take profits.
To fine-tune an entry, you can apply this extremely simple framework to any existing TA skills, candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing, ABC pullback, pinbar, etc.), or market structure.
Here are some examples of trade entries on MCD, GDDY, and SPX. Follow the framework and keep your trading simple.
9 Common Misconceptions About Forex9 Common Misconceptions About Forex
Forex is a dynamic and complex financial market that is of great interest to investors and traders all over the world. Still, like any other industry, it’s not immune to misconceptions and myths. This FXOpen article looks into the origins of these myths and examines nine of the most common misconceptions about forex trading. Separating fact from fiction, it’s designed to give traders a clearer picture of foreign exchange trading.
How Do Myths About Forex Trading Occur?
Myths about trading currencies online often arise from a lack of knowledge and understanding of how the market works. The decentralised nature of the forex market can seem mysterious and incomprehensible to newcomers – there’s no central exchange, it’s available from almost anywhere in the world, and the web is full of stories of big gains and losses. All this can be confusing. In addition, the lure of quick profits and the prevalence of “get rich quick” schemes contribute to the myths about forex trading.
9 Most Common Myths
Myth 1: Forex Does Not Relate to Real Life
Let’s start with the main notion of the forex market: what is it? The false perception is that forex is a complex and mysterious market available only to financial elites. Some perceive it as a market where currencies are traded for speculative purposes but have limited real-world significance.
In reality, forex is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, which facilitates the exchange of currencies to help the global financial system work. Nowadays, forex is available for anyone willing to participate.
Myth 2: Forex Trading Is Only for Financial Experts
Contrary to popular belief, forex trading is not the exclusive domain of financial experts or institutional investors. Anyone with a desire to trade and invest and a disciplined attitude to risk management can participate. There are many educational resources, online courses, and demo accounts available for aspiring traders.
Myth 3: Forex Trading Is a Guaranteed Way to Get Rich
Even though forex allows you to make profits, trading is not a guaranteed way to get rich. Success in the forex market requires a long period of study, practice, and risk management, and even after that, markets can behave in unpredictable ways.
Many inexperienced traders have lost money by acting rashly or relying on luck. Even with experience, it’s not possible to completely avoid losses; one can only reduce their number by learning to manage risks.
Myth 4: Forex Trading Is a Form of Gambling
Forex trading is not gambling. It is a legitimate financial market with oversight from financial authorities in various countries. Brokers must adhere to strict regulations and ensure transparency and fairness.
Unlike gambling, forex trading involves analysis, strategy, and risk management. Traders base their decisions on technical and fundamental analysis, not chance. In contrast, gambling often lacks such structured risk management and can be associated with underground activities.
Myth 5: A Trader Needs a Lot of Money to Engage in Forex
It’s a common misconception that one needs a large amount of capital to start trading in the forex market. In reality, forex trading offers a high degree of accessibility and flexibility. Many brokers offer the opportunity to open an account with a minimum deposit. However, it is important to trade with an amount you can afford to lose and use the right risk management strategies.
While some traders use advanced software and tools, these are not mandatory for trading. Many brokers offer free charting and analysis facilities, and there are many free resources available on the web. Consider using the TickTrader platform with advanced charts and tools. All the instruments are free of charge.
Myth 6: The Forex Market Is Manipulated and Unpredictable
While the forex market can be influenced by various factors, including economic events and central bank policies, it is not manipulated in the way some myths suggest. It operates in a decentralised manner, with a vast number of participants, making it difficult for any single entity to control or manipulate the market. The market’s behaviour is typically driven by supply and demand dynamics, making it more predictable with the right analysis.
Myth 7: There Is a Single Easy Profitable Forex Strategy
There is no one-size-fits-all strategy in forex trading that guarantees profit. The market is ever-changing, and what works today may not work tomorrow. In addition, traders have varying risk tolerance levels, capital, and trading goals. A strategy suitable for one person may not align with the objectives of another. Traders change the way they act to benefit from different market conditions and continuously learn and refine their skills.
Myth 8: You Must Trade All the Time to Be Successful
It is far from true that you need to devote all your time to day and night trading. This myth is also due to FOMO, fear of missing out, which makes people try to catch every opportunity. Overtrading can be detrimental to your trading account balance. In fact, quality outweighs quantity. It’s much better to have a well-defined trading plan and make trades only when all the criteria are met.
Myth 9: Forex Trading Is Tax-Free
Tax regulation of forex trading varies from country to country. In many countries, profits are subject to taxation. It is critical to understand your tax obligations and report your income accurately. Not knowing the law does not absolve you of responsibility.
Forex Trading: Is It Profitable?
Forex trading, while offering opportunities for profit, involves risk and offers no guarantees of success. Traders who approach the market with education, discipline, risk management, and a realistic outlook are better positioned to overcome challenges and achieve long-term profits. Forex trading should be viewed as a serious endeavour that requires dedication and continuous improvement to increase the likelihood of success.
Traders must dispel common misconceptions and approach trading with a disciplined and well-informed mindset. This helps them make more informed decisions. For those looking to learn to trade forex based on facts and analysis, it’s essential to seek out reliable educational resources. If you’re interested, you can open an FXOpen account and read our blog!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Trade with the Choppiness IndexHow to Trade with the Choppiness Index
The Choppiness Index is a valuable tool in the world of trading, particularly for experienced traders involved in analysing market trends and making informed trading decisions. Developed by Australian commodity trader E.W. Dreiss, this indicator is designed to measure price volatility or directionless behaviour. The Choppiness Index provides traders with insights into whether an asset is in a trending or ranging phase. This article describes the purpose, calculation, and application of this efficient tool. Continue reading if you need help adjusting and improving your trading strategies.
What Is the Choppiness Index?
The Choppiness Index (CI) is a technical analysis tool that helps determine whether a market is moving in a trend or consolidating. Sideways movements are challenging for traders to develop a viable strategy; thus, the Choppy market indicator, in conjunction with other technical tools, can help. A possible reversal of an existing trend can also be verified through the Choppiness Indicator. Yet, it is not a directional indicator and, therefore, cannot be used to predict future price direction.
The Choppy market index can be useful in all asset classes, but higher volatility conditions, like in stock index trading, can be more suitable for this index. If you would like to explore how to enhance your market analysis techniques using the Choppiness Indicator, head over to FXOpen and try out TickTrader’s charting tools.
How Is the Choppy Market Indicator Calculated?
The Choppiness Index is calculated through the following formula:
CI = 100 ∗ LOG10( ∑ n1ATR)( MaxHigh( n) − MinLow( n)) / LOG10( n)
Where:
ATR( 1) = Average True Range ( Period of 1)
SUM( ATR( 1), n) = Sum of the Average True Range over n periods
MaxHigh( n) = The highest peak over n periods
MinLow( n) = The lowest trough over n periods
Log10( n) = base-10 Log of n
n = defined period length
How to Use the Choppiness Index
The CI value provides insights into the market situation when crossing a certain level or entering a predefined area. As an oscillator-type analysis tool, the CI takes values between 0 and 100. The most common interpretations of the Choppy market indicator are derived from the Fibonacci retracement values. Generally, it is considered that a reading below 38.2 indicates a trend; a reading between 38.2 and 61.8 suggests choppy movements that would make traders wait for the emergence of a clearer trend; a high reading of the Choppy market indicator is considered above 61.8, and it indicates very choppy or consolidated prices when many traders would prefer to stick to range-bound strategies.
Depending on the specific asset, risk preference, or trading style, traders can apply different thresholds. For example, a fall below the level of 30 or a rise above the level of 50 could be considered a signal for a starting trend or the beginning of an indecision phase, respectively.
The Chop Index can be very useful in stock index trading. That market can get volatile, and the Choppy market indicator allows traders to identify potential breakouts or lower volatility periods. Below are three examples on the US SPX 500 chart of how the Choppiness Index can be implemented when analysing real markets.
A Trending Market (A Sudden Drop in the Choppiness Index)
The CI value dropping below a certain threshold (typically below 38.2) signals that the market is starting a trending phase. This suggests that there is a clear and sustained price movement; however, as the CI does not show the direction of price movement, it may be either an upward or downward move. Traders engaged in stock index trading or interested in other asset classes may interpret this signal as an opportunity to employ trend-following strategies, such as buying in an uptrend or selling in a downtrend.
Choppy or Ranging Asset Price (Moderate Levels of the Choppiness Index)
When the CI stays within the moderate range (typically between 38.2 and 61.8), it indicates that the market is relatively choppy or ranging. As seen in the chart below, such behaviour of the CI can also be accompanied by increased volatility, implying higher market risk. In such conditions, there may be no clear or sustained trend, and prices may move within a slightly broader range but with no clear direction. Traders may exercise caution when observing such readings of the Choppy market indicator, as it can be challenging to predict the price direction. Experienced stock index trading participants might choose to reduce risk or wait for a clearer trend to develop.
Consolidating Market (Choppiness Index Stays High)
A CI reading above a certain threshold (typically above 61.8) suggests that the market is consolidating within a narrow trading range. In the US SPX 500 stock index trading example displayed on the chart below, volatility is low, yet the price movement implies market indecision and possible unpredictable moves in either direction with no well-defined trend. In such conditions, combined with high values of the Choppy market indicator, traders may consider staying out of the market or employing range-bound or mean-reversion strategies, as breakouts and trend-following approaches may be less effective.
How to Combine the Chop Index with Other Technical Analysis Tools
Several other indicators can be combined with the Choppiness index indicator to analyse price action. Traders can identify support and resistance levels and consider the price level relative to Moving Averages, and then add the Chop index to determine an entry point in a trending market. Bollinger Bands provide another suitable indicator to be used together with the CI to identify potential breakouts of a trading range.
Combined with trading volume, the CI can provide a strong confirmation signal. After a period of sideways price action, low volume, and a high level of CI, a sudden surge in volume while the price is still in range, a drop of the index below the 38.2 level, combined with the price breaking the range, could confirm the breakout.
Conclusion
The Choppiness Index can be a valuable instrument for all asset classes, stock index trading being one possibility. It helps distinguish sideways movements from trending market activity, while it’s also used to evaluate an asset’s volatility. As the Choppiness Index cannot predict price direction, traders combine it with other technical tools, making it beneficial to a chart analysis strategy.
Interested in testing possible trading strategies using the Choppiness Index? Consider opening an FXOpen account, which grants you access to a wide range of markets and advanced trading opportunities.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to trade parallel channels? Parallel channels strategyHow to trade parallel channels? Parallel channels trading strategy
In trading, a channel is a vital element of technical analysis that traders often and effectively use. Identifying a channel in technical analysis involves constructing support and resistance lines that define the zone within which prices move.
Simply put, a price (trend, trading) channel is a combination of at least two lines: a support line and a resistance line. These lines are fundamental to any trading channel, helping traders understand market psychology and price movements.
Support Line: This line indicates the price levels where a downtrend may halt due to a concentration of demand. It’s typically the point where the price stops falling and may even bounce back upward.
Resistance Line: The opposite situation occurs here. This line shows the price levels where an uptrend is likely to stop or reverse due to a concentration of supply.
Channels reflect changes in supply and demand influenced by various fundamental factors. There are different types of channels based on the trend they represent:
Upward (Bullish) Channels: Constructed on higher highs and higher lows, indicating a rising market trend.
Downward (Bearish) Channels: Built on lower highs and lower lows, indicating a falling market trend.
Horizontal (Flat) Channels: Used in markets without a pronounced trend, where prices move sideways within a range.
Channels can also be categorized based on their time frame:
Long-term Channels: Often used by investors who aim to profit from major market trends. These channels can span weeks, months, or even years, providing a broader perspective on market movements.
Short-term Channels: Typically used by day traders or those looking to capitalize on smaller market movements within a shorter time frame, ranging from a few minutes to several days.
To build a bullish channel, identify two rising lows and draw a support line through them. Then, draw a parallel resistance line through the intermediate high between these lows. The key rule when constructing a trend channel is that the price should frequently and clearly bounce off the channel boundary, confirming its validity. The more the price bounces off the channel boundary, the more noticeable the channel becomes to other market participants, increasing the likelihood of a breakout.
The price may experience a false breakout of the channel boundary. Considering the volatility of popular markets, traders should allow the price some freedom to make a false move and temporarily exit the channel. A false breakout followed by a return to the channel can also be seen as a pattern that confirms the channel’s validity.
Why I Prefer Horizontal Channels Over Trend Channels:
Subjectivity: Trend channels can be subjective, as different traders may draw them differently, leading to varied interpretations.
Price Tests: The price may test the channel lines with near misses or overshoots, which can mislead market participants.
Profit Limits: Trading within narrow ranges can limit profit potential, making horizontal channels more reliable in such scenarios.
Traders use channels in various strategies to maximize their trading opportunities:
Buying at Support and Selling at Resistance:
This strategy involves trading based on the expectation that the price will bounce back into the channel, possibly using a median line as an additional guide.
Stop Losses : Place stop losses at a reasonable distance behind the channel line to manage risk effectively.
Take Profit: Set take profit levels to ensure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, maximizing potential gains while minimizing losses.
Use Channels as One Tool Among Many: While channels are valuable, they should be used alongside other tools and indicators for a well-rounded trading strategy.
Aggressive Trading: Some traders may buy or sell during breakouts, but this approach carries higher risks, especially given the prevalence of false breakouts.
Most breakouts turn out to be false, with major players taking positions from traders who have placed their stop orders just beyond the level, causing the price to quickly revert. However, if the price breaks through the upper boundary of the channel and holds above it, it may indicate strong bullish sentiment. A strong impulse breaking through the upper boundary at high volumes suggests a bullish market sentiment, and the price’s return to the moving average after breaking upward presents an excellent buying opportunity.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Best Currency Pairs to Trade at NightBest Currency Pairs to Trade at Night
In forex trading, time is of great importance. The forex market operates 24/5, and it is divided into different trading sessions, including Asian, European, and North American. Each session has its own unique characteristics, and their overlap can impact activity and volatility.
Night trading presents both opportunities and challenges. To make the most of night hours, it is important to identify the best forex currency pairs to trade during this period. This FXOpen article will delve into the world of night trading, exploring the key elements affecting it and offering valuable insights.
Factors Impacting Nighttime Forex Trading
Time is a critical factor in forex trading because it influences market conditions, liquidity, and volatility. Traders consider the timing of their trades and adapt their strategies accordingly to maximise opportunities while managing risk.
Market Hours Around the World
Nighttime forex trading coincides with different market sessions. The primary session during the night for European traders is the Asian session (Sydney and Tokyo sessions). In addition, although the New York session is not technically a night session, the latter part of it often moves into the night.
The North American trading session, which includes markets in New York, Chicago, and Toronto, aligns with the evening and night hours for Australian traders. The European session overlaps with the late evening and early morning hours for Australian traders. This overlap is where traders can find significant trading opportunities.
Liquidity During Different Sessions
Nighttime trading sees lower liquidity compared to the major sessions, but this doesn’t mean it’s devoid of opportunities. Major forex pairs, for example, tend to remain relatively liquid, ensuring traders can enter and exit positions with ease.
Also, liquidity differs depending on the currency pair. For Europe, pairs with Asia-Pacific currencies (e.g. Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar) will have more liquidity at night. Meanwhile, for Asian and Australian traders, pairs with the USD and European currencies will be more liquid in the overnight hours.
Volatility Patterns
Night trading often sees more stable price movements than day sessions. Traders seeking smoother trends and reduced risk often find night trading attractive. Night traders analyse and react to the information accumulated during the day sessions. This allows for more methodical and less impulsive trading decisions, which also contributes to price stability.
Economic Events and News Releases
Despite the quiet hours, economic events and news releases can still impact nighttime trading. Keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid unexpected surprises and capitalise on market reactions.
Best Currency Pairs to Trade at Night
The choice of the best forex pairs to trade at night depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and preferences. However, some currency pairs are generally considered more suitable for this. Here are some popular forex pairs to consider.
Major Currency Pairs
Major forex pairs, such as EUR/USD (Euro/US dollar), USD/JPY (US dollar/Japanese yen), and GBP/USD (British pound/US dollar), remain attractive options for night trading due to their liquidity and stable price movements. As these are the most traded pairs in forex, many market participants favour them.
Cross Currency Pairs
Cross currency pairs, like EUR/GBP (Euro/British pound), EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese yen), and AUD/JPY (Australian dollar/Japanese yen), can provide diversification and trading opportunities during the night. They might exhibit different volatility patterns from major currency pairs.
Exotic Currency Pairs
While exotic currency pairs can be riskier, some traders find them intriguing during the night. You can consider, for example, USD/SGD (US dollar/Singapore dollar), USD/TRY (US dollar/Turkish lira), or EUR/TRY (Euro/Turkish lira). These are among the most volatile pairs in forex, and they often experience substantial price swings, offering the potential for higher profits.
Trading Strategies for Nighttime Trading
Trading strategies for night trading require careful consideration of market conditions and trader preferences. Below are a few trading strategies suitable for night trading.
Scalping
Scalping is a short-term strategy that allows traders to capitalise on small price movements. This strategy can be effective, as news that comes out at night can create more volatility in the market, which is the main benefit for scalpers.
Swing Trading
This approach involves capturing medium-term price movements. This strategy provides opportunities to identify and enter positions that can be held overnight or for several days. By using swing trading, traders reduce risks of price fluctuations that can affect day traders and scalpers. Swing traders typically need to conduct technical analysis to know when it’s best to enter and exit a trade.
Carry Trading
Carry trading utilises the difference in interest rates between currency pairs. Traders earn interest on the currency they buy (the currency of the country with a higher interest rate) and pay interest on the currency they sell (the currency of the country with a lower interest rate). For night trading, traders may look for pairs with favourable interest rate differentials and hold positions to accumulate interest income.
Range Trading
Range trading involves identifying price ranges or support and resistance levels and trading within those boundaries. During the night, many currency pairs consolidate within narrower ranges, making range trading an appealing strategy.
Risk Management Techniques
Regardless of the trading strategy, setting stop-loss and take-profit orders is crucial. They help limit potential losses and lock in profits. You can also consider managing your risk through proper position sizing. The theory states that you shouldn’t risk more than you can afford to lose in a single trade.
Another smart idea is to diversify your portfolio and trade different currency pairs to spread risk. Before entering a trade, a good way to go is to evaluate the risk-reward ratio. A favourable ratio ensures that potential gains outweigh potential losses.
Final Thoughts
To identify the best currency pairs to trade today, it’s crucial to conduct technical and fundamental analysis. The TickTrader platform can help you with the former, as there you will find the most advanced analysis tools, graphs, and more. To assess external factors, use news resources and analyses by experts, which you can find on our blog. You can open an FXOpen account and start trading tonight.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Amateur vs. Professional GapsWhen analyzing gaps on a chart, the key question to ask yourself is this:
Did this gap result from amateur traders reacting emotionally, either buying or selling?
Or was it the professional traders, who base their decisions on logic rather than emotion?
To determine this, there's a crucial concept you need to grasp first...
Professional traders buy after a wave of selling and sell after a wave of buying.
Amateur traders, on the other hand, do the opposite! They see a stock rising and, driven by fear of missing out, rush to buy – right when the pros are preparing to sell.
Trend Strategy: Liquidity with DCF█ INTRODUCTION
This trading strategy is designed to maximize your chances of success by focusing on the most favorable currency pairs and aligning your trades with strong market trends.
Here’s a breakdown of how it works:
1. Identify the DCF (Daily Capital Flow) Index: Start by analyzing the overall flow of capital across various currencies. This involves identifying which currencies are gaining strength and which are weakening. By combining the strongest currencies against the weakest, you can select currency pairs that are more likely to move in your favor, taking advantage of minimal market resistance.
2. Wait for a trap play: A trap play is a market pattern where the price seems to move against the trend but then quickly reverses, trapping traders who took the bait. Look for this trap play to form in the direction of the identified capital flow. The key signal here is the price crossing the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which acts as a trigger for entry into the trade.
3. Place your stop loss: To manage risk, place your stop loss just below the bar or candlestick that forms the trap play. This way, if the market moves against your position, your losses will be limited.
4. Stay in the trend: As long as the price remains above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on a closing basis, you stay in the trade. This indicates that the trend is still strong, and there's no need to exit prematurely.
5. Take profit: Monitor the market for a trap play forming in the opposite direction of your trade. This suggests that liquidity is building up, and the market might reverse. This is your cue to take profit and close the trade.
6. Repeat: Once you've closed the trade, start the process again by identifying the DCF, finding new optimal pairs, and following the steps above.
By consistently applying this strategy, you can leverage market trends and manage risk effectively, potentially leading to consistent profits.
Key Elements of Market Trends: Strategies for Effective AnalysisNavigating the complex world of financial markets requires a deep understanding of market trends. These trends represent the general direction in which the price of a market or asset moves, influenced by a variety of economic, social, and political factors. By analyzing these trends, investors can identify opportunities, manage risks, and improve their trading strategies. This guide explores the core concepts of market trends, including their definitions, how to identify and confirm them, and their application in stock and forex markets. Whether you're new to investing or a seasoned trader, understanding market trends is essential for navigating financial markets and achieving your investment goals.
What Are Market Trends and Why Are They Important?
Market trends refer to the overall direction in which an asset, market, or index price moves over a specific period. Recognizing these trends is crucial for investors and traders, as they guide decisions on when to buy or sell assets. There are three main types of market trends:
1. Uptrend: An uptrend occurs when asset prices are rising, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This trend indicates a bullish market sentiment, with investors showing optimism and increased buying activity.
EURUSD Uptrend 2022 -2023
2. Downtrend: A downtrend is identified by falling asset prices, with lower highs and lower lows. It reflects a bearish market sentiment, where pessimism prevails, leading to more selling than buying.
EURUSD Downtrend 2021 - 2022
3. Sideways Trend: Also known as a horizontal trend, this occurs when an asset's price fluctuates within a narrow range without a clear upward or downward movement, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures.
EURUSD Sideways 2023 - Actual
Understanding market trends is vital because they are driven by factors like economic data, company performance, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. By identifying these trends, investors can predict potential market movements and develop informed trading strategies.
How to Analyze Market Trends
Analyzing market trends involves looking at historical price data and other relevant information to forecast future price movements. The following methods are commonly used:
1) Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on studying past market data, primarily price and volume, to identify patterns and trends. Key tools and techniques include:
Moving Averages : These averages smooth out price data over a set period, helping to determine the direction of a trend. For example, a simple moving average calculates the average price over a specific number of days, filtering out short-term fluctuations to provide a clearer view of the trend.
200 Moving Average SMA
Trendlines: Trendlines connect significant price points, such as highs or lows, on a chart. They visually represent the trend's direction and strength, aiding in identifying potential trend reversals or continuations.
Chart Patterns: Patterns like head and shoulders, double tops, and flags provide visual signals of potential trend changes or continuations, indicating whether a trend is likely to persist or shift.
2) Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis evaluates economic indicators, financial statements, and qualitative factors to determine an asset's intrinsic value. Key elements include:
- Economic Indicators: Metrics such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation can influence market trends. For instance, strong economic growth can lead to an uptrend in stock prices, as companies typically perform better in a robust economy.
- Corporate Performance: Factors like earnings reports, revenue growth, and profit margins offer insights into a company's financial health and future prospects. These metrics help investors decide whether a company's stock is likely to rise or fall.
- Geopolitical Events: Events like political instability, trade policies, and international conflicts can impact investor sentiment and market trends. For example, political uncertainty might trigger a downtrend as risk-averse investors sell off assets.
By combining these methods, investors gain a comprehensive view of market trends. Technical analysis identifies patterns based on past price movements, while fundamental analysis uncovers the underlying forces driving these trends. A thorough understanding and analysis of market trends enable investors to make better decisions, manage risks more effectively, and improve their chances of success in the market.
The Importance of Market Trends
Understanding market trends is essential for successful trading and investing. These trends vary in duration:
- Short-term Trends: Lasting from days to weeks, these trends are often influenced by recent market news and events and are usually characterized by higher volatility.
- Intermediate-term Trends: Spanning weeks to months, these trends offer a clearer direction, filtering out short-term noise and focusing on more significant movements.
Long-term Trends: These trends, lasting from months to years, are shaped by macroeconomic factors and significant market shifts, reflecting broader economic conditions.
Market trends also follow specific phases:
- Accumulation Phase: Informed investors begin buying undervalued assets, often when prices are low and market sentiment is bearish.
- Advancing Phase / Mark-up: As more investors recognize the asset's value, prices rise, leading to bullish market sentiment.
- Distribution Phase: Savvy investors start selling as the asset reaches its peak, causing prices to stabilize or decline, with mixed market sentiment.
- Decline Phase: Increased selling pressure leads to falling prices, resulting in bearish sentiment among investors.
Market sentiment—whether bullish, bearish, or neutral—plays a crucial role in shaping trends and trading decisions. Economic indicators such as GDP growth, corporate earnings reports, interest rate changes, and geopolitical events also significantly influence market trends. Aligning investments with prevailing trends helps manage risks and avoid potential losses by staying in tune with market movements.
Techniques for Identifying Market Trends
Identifying market trends requires a combination of technical and fundamental analyses:
Technical Analysis Tools
- Moving Averages: Simple or exponential moving averages smooth out price data to reveal trend directions.
- Trendlines: By connecting highs and lows, trendlines help visualize trends and anticipate potential breakout points.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, indicating overbought or oversold conditions, which can signal potential trend reversals.
- Bollinger Bands: These bands plot volatility levels around moving averages, highlighting potential reversals based on price reaching the bands' outer limits.
Validating Market Trends
Assessing the validity of a market trend is crucial for making informed investment decisions. Consider these factors to determine a trend's validity:
- Volume Confirmation: A valid trend is often accompanied by high trading volume. Significant price movements with increased volume indicate strong investor interest, which lends credibility to the trend.
- Trend Duration: The length of a trend provides insights into its strength and validity. Short-term fluctuations may result from market noise, while long-term trends reflect more enduring economic or corporate factors.
- Moving Averages: Analysts use moving averages to confirm trends. For example, a stock consistently trading above its 200-day moving average suggests a bullish trend, while trading below indicates a bearish trend.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying key support and resistance levels helps validate a trend. A valid trend typically breaks through these levels and continues in the same direction rather than reversing.
- Market Sentiment and News: External factors like economic news and political events can influence market sentiment and validate trends. Positive or negative news aligned with the stock's fundamentals supports the validity of a trend.
- Divergence Analysis: Analyzing divergences between price trends and momentum indicators (such as RSI or MACD) can reveal potential weaknesses in a trend. For example, a rising price with a declining momentum indicator may indicate a weakening trend.
- Pattern Recognition: Recognizing chart patterns like head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, and triangles can validate trends, as these patterns often precede significant price movements and confirm the trend's direction.
By carefully analyzing these factors, investors can gain a deeper understanding of whether a market trend is valid and make informed decisions accordingly.
Conclusion
Mastering market trends is crucial for investors at all levels of experience. Understanding the nature of trends, how to analyze them, and how to validate their validity are key steps in making informed trading decisions. By combining technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and staying updated on market news and events, investors can enhance their ability to identify and capitalize on market trends.
Whether you're trading stocks or navigating the forex market, leveraging these insights will help you navigate the complexities of financial markets and achieve your investment goals. Continuous learning and staying informed about market conditions are essential to developing successful trading and investment strategies.
Mastering High Probability Trading Across All AssetsGreetings Traders!
Welcome back to today’s video! In this session, we're revisiting the critical concept of draw on liquidity. I'll guide you on how to take advantage of it with extreme market precision, focusing on when to trade, when to avoid the market, and how to increase your chances of high-probability trade outcomes.
If you're looking to enhance your trading strategy and make smarter decisions, this video is for you. Let's dive in and start mastering these concepts!
Refer to these videos as well:
Premium Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading:
Mastering Institutional Order-Flow Price Delivery
Quarter Theory Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements:
Best Regards,
The_Architect
Mastering the Moving Average: The Trendspotter for Every TraderTradingViewers, this one will take you back to basics. In this Idea we visit a tool that’s as essential as your morning coffee — the Moving Average (MA). This indicator is the market’s smoothing instrument, ironing out the noise and letting you see the trend for what it really is.
What’s a Moving Average?
Think of the Moving Average as the market’s highlight reel. It averages out price action over a specific period, showing you where the market’s been and giving you a clue about where it might be headed.
It’s the ultimate trendspotter, cutting through the daily chatter to reveal the bigger picture. Day traders and scalpers, don’t fret — it works on intraday time frames, too.
Types of MAs
Simple Moving Average (SMA): The old-school classic. It’s as straightforward as it gets — just an average of days you specify — 7, 9, 21, 50, 100, or even 200 days — that’s called “length”. This tool might be simple, but it’s a mainstay indicator for professional traders, institutional investors, and other big-shot money spinners.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The turbocharged version of the SMA. It gives more weight to recent prices, meaning it reacts quicker to the action. If the SMA is a steady cruise, the EMA is a sports car with a little more kick.
How to Use Moving Averages
Spotting Trends : The Moving Average is your trend-checking buddy. Prices above the MA? We’re in bull territory. Prices below? Looks like the bears are in control. Slap it on any time frame — it’s the same rules regardless of the time horizon.
Support and Resistance : MAs are like the guardrails of the market. They often act as support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends. When price bounces off an MA, it’s like a boxer bouncing off the ropes — watch for the counterpunch!
The Golden Cross & Death Cross : Now we’re talking setups that get traders buzzing. When a short-term MA crosses above a long-term MA, you get a Golden Cross – the market’s flashing a buy signal party. But when the opposite happens, it’s a Death Cross, and the bears start licking their lips.
Moving Average Crossover : Want some trading action? Watch for crossovers between short and long MAs. For example, throw in your chart a 50-day moving average and then top it up with a 100-day and a 200-day line. If they all cross over to the upside, you can expect a swing higher. And if they cross over to the downside, you can anticipate a swing lower.
Pro Tip: Tune Your Moving Average
Jot these numbers down — 20, 50, 100, 200 — these are the MA settings you’ll see most, but don’t be afraid to tweak them. A shorter MA (20 or 50) reacts quicker but can whipsaw you. A longer MA (100 or 200) is steadier but might be slower to catch reversals. It’s all about finding the balance that suits your trading style.
Bottom Line
The Moving Average isn’t about predicting the future — it’s about seeing the present more clearly. It’s the difference between getting lost in the noise and riding the trend with confidence. Whether you’re trend-following or looking for a noiseless entry, the MA is your go-to indicator.
So slap that Moving Average on your chart and let it take you beyond the clutter. Because when the market’s moving fast, it pays to have a steady hand guiding your trades. And as essential as MAs are, don't limit your analysis to just one tool: apply several indicators on your chart to spot trends more effectively and enhance your research with data from the economic calendar , screeners, heatmaps, and all kinds of tools available on TradingView to have a bigger picture of market activities.
Are you already using MAs in your charting and trading? Let us know in the comments below!
Forex Trade Management Strategies. Techniques For Beginners
I am going to reveal 4 trade management strategies that will change the way you trade forex.
These simple techniques are aimed to minimize your losses and maximize your gains.
1. Trading Without Take Profit
Once you spotted the market that is trading in a strong bullish or bearish trend, there is one tip that will help you to benefit from the entire movement.
If the market is bullish, and you buy it expecting a bullish trend continuation, consider trading WITHOUT take profit.
Take a look at USDJPY on an hourly time frame.
The market is trading in the bullish trend, and we see a strong trend-following signal - a bullish breakout of a current resistance .
After the violation, the price went up by more than 1000 pips, and of course, trading with a fixed target, most likely you would close the trade too soon.
The same trade management strategy can be applied in a bearish trend.
Above is a price action on GBPUSD. The pair is very bearish, and we see a strong bearish signal on an hourly time frame.
The market dropped by more than 1000 pips then, and of course, trading with the fixed take profit, you would miss that bearish rally, closing the trade earlier.
Even though the trends do not last forever, the markets may easily fall or grow sharply for weeks or even months and this technique will help you to cash out from the entire movement.
2. Stop Loss to Breakeven
Once you open a trading position and the market starts going in the desired direction, there is a simple strategy that will help you to protect your position from a sudden reversal.
Above is the real trade that we took with my students in my trading academy. We spotted a very bearish pattern on USDCAD and opened short position.
Initially we were right, and the market was going to our target.
BUT because of the surprising release of negative Canadian fundamental news, the market reversed suddenly, not being able to reach the target.
And that could be a losing trade BUT we managed to save our money.
What we did: we moved our stop loss to entry level, or to breakeven, before the release of the fundamentals.
Trade was closed on entry level and we lost 0 dollars.
Moving stop loss to entry saved me tens of thousands of dollars.
It is one of the simplest trade management techniques that you must apply.
3. Trailing Stop Loss
Once you managed to catch a strong movement, do not keep your stop loss intact.
As we already discussed, your first step will be to protect your position and move your stop loss to entry.
But what you can do next, you can apply trailing stop loss.
Above is a trend-following trade that we took with my students on GBPCHF.
Once the market started moving in the desired direction, we moved stop loss to breakeven.
As the market kept setting new highs, we trailed the stop loss and set it below the supports based on new higher lows.
We kept trailing the stop loss till the market reached the target.
Application of a trailing stop will help you to protect your profits, in case of a sudden change in the market sentiment and reversal.
4. Partial Closing
The last tip can be applied for trading and investing.
Remember that once you correctly predicted a rally, you can book partial profits, once the price is approaching some important historical levels or ahead of important fundamental releases.
Imagine that you bought 1 Bitcoin for 17000$.
Once a bullish market started, you can sell the portion of your BTC, once the price reaches significant key levels.
For example, 0.2 BTC on each level.
With such trade management technique, you will book profits while remaining in your position.
Even though, these techniques are very simple, only the few apply them. Try these trade management strategies and increase your gains and avoid losses!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Highs and Lows Move Together: A Key Insight for Retail Traders█ Understanding Daily Highs and Lows in Trading
When it comes to trading, understanding the dynamics of daily price movements is essential. Daily highs and lows, which represent the highest and lowest prices of an asset within a single trading day, are more than just numbers—they provide valuable insights into market behavior, volatility, and potential trading opportunities.
█ What Are Daily Highs and Lows?
Daily Highs: The highest price an asset reaches during a trading day.
Daily Lows: The lowest price an asset hits during the same period.
Price Range: The difference between the daily high and low, which gives a measure of the day's volatility.
These metrics are crucial for traders because they not only reflect the volatility but also highlight the turning points in the market. A wide price range indicates high volatility, while a narrow range suggests the opposite.
█ Insights from Research
Research shows that daily highs and lows are not just random occurrences—they are statistically significant and can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. For example, models that analyze the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range can outperform simple predictions based on past prices alone.
⚪ Highs and Lows as Important Levels:
The daily high is the highest price that an assets reaches in a day, and the daily low is the lowest price. These points are important because they often act like barriers in the market. If the price approaches the daily high, it might struggle to go higher, like hitting a ceiling. If it can’t break through, it might start to fall back down. Similarly, when the price gets close to the daily low, it might find support, like hitting a floor, and start rising again.
⚪ Market Reactions:
When the price reaches these highs or lows, it often reacts strongly. For instance, if the price hits a high but then drops, it suggests that traders think the price shouldn’t go higher, leading to a possible reversal. On the other hand, if the price keeps pushing against a high and finally breaks through, it could signal the start of a new upward trend.
In simple terms, the highs and lows act like important checkpoints in the market. Watching how prices behave around these levels can give traders clues about what might happen next.
█ Key Findings
⚪ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together:
The study found that the highest and lowest prices of oil each day are connected and tend to move together over time. This connection means that if one changes, the other usually does too. For retail traders, this suggests that tracking these levels can provide important clues about where the market might be heading next.
⚪ Price Ranges Indicate Volatility:
The difference between the daily high and low (known as the price range) is a strong indicator of how volatile the market is. A large range means the market is very active and prices are swinging widely. For traders, this could mean more opportunities to profit, but also more risk. Conversely, a small range indicates a calmer market with less movement.
⚪ Better Forecasting Models:
The study shows that by understanding the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range, traders can use more accurate models to predict future prices. These models outperform simpler methods that many traders might be using. For retail traders, this means there are better tools available that can help them make more informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of success.
█ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together
Daily highs and lows are connected and influence each other. This means that the highest and lowest prices of an asset during a trading day tend to move in relation to one another.
Imagine you're tracking the price of crude oil. On Monday, the highest price of the day was $80 per barrel, and the lowest was $75 per barrel. On Tuesday, the price went up, with the high being $88 and the low being $79. What the research found is that these daily highs and lows tend to follow a pattern or move in sync with each other over time.
The increase in both the high and low suggests that overall market sentiment is positive, and traders are willing to pay more, even at the lowest prices of the day.
█ What It Actually Means
⚪ Connection Between Highs and Lows:
If the daily high price increases, the daily low price often increases too, and vice versa. This doesn’t mean they are the same price, but rather that they tend to trend in the same direction. For instance, if the market is generally moving up (bullish), both the daily high and low prices will usually increase from one day to the next.
⚪ Why They Move Together:
This movement happens because the factors driving the price up or down (like supply and demand, market sentiment, or external news) impact both the high and low of the day. If there’s strong buying pressure, it will push the daily high up and also raise the floor, or daily low, as sellers adjust their expectations.
█ What It Means for Retail Traders
For new traders, understanding and using daily highs and lows can be a game-changer. These metrics offer a glimpse into market sentiment, help identify trading opportunities, and can form the foundation of robust trading strategies. By incorporating the analysis of daily highs and lows into your trading routine, you can make more informed decisions and improve your chances of success in the markets.
Understanding that daily highs and lows move together can help you predict market trends. If you see a pattern where both the highs and lows are steadily rising, it’s a sign that the market is in an uptrend, and you might decide to buy, expecting prices to keep climbing. Conversely, if both are falling, it might indicate a downtrend, suggesting it’s a good time to sell or avoid buying.
█ Reference
He, A.W.W., Kwok, J.T.K., & Wan, A.T.K. (2010). An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1499–1506.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Six Key Ideas from "Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas
I first read "Trading in the Zone" 15 years ago in English. Recently, a publishing house in Romania translated it, and I purchased it on Friday, finishing it entirely by Sunday evening and it was just as impactful as the first time I read it. Mark Douglas' insights into trading psychology are timeless, and this book remains a cornerstone for anyone serious about mastering the mental aspect of trading. For those who haven’t read it, here are the key ideas from this book.
Key Ideas from "Trading in the Zone":
1. The Importance of a Winning Mindset: Douglas emphasizes that successful trading is not just about having the right strategy but about developing a mindset that allows you to execute that strategy without hesitation or fear. The book teaches you how to cultivate confidence and consistency by focusing on probabilities rather than certainties.
2. Embracing Uncertainty: One of the most important lessons from the book is the idea that the market is inherently unpredictable. Rather than trying to predict every move, successful traders focus on managing risk and understanding that each trade has an uncertain outcome. This mindset helps traders avoid the emotional pitfalls of fear and greed.
3. The Power of Consistency: Douglas stresses that consistency is key in trading. He argues that the most successful traders are those who can follow their trading plan with discipline, regardless of the market conditions. Consistency reduces emotional decision-making and increases the likelihood of long-term success.
4. Psychological Barriers: The book delves into the psychological challenges that traders face, such as fear, greed, and overconfidence. Douglas provides practical advice on how to recognize and overcome these barriers, helping traders make more rational decisions and avoid common traps.
5. Process Over Outcome: Another key takeaway is the idea that traders should focus on the process of trading rather than the outcome of individual trades. By trusting in their edge—a proven trading strategy—and not getting overly attached to the results of any single trade, traders can improve their overall performance.
6. Money Management: While the book is primarily about trading psychology, it also touches on the critical importance of money management. Douglas highlights how proper money management ensures that you can withstand losses and stay in the game for the long haul.
Reading "Trading in the Zone" again this weekend reminded me of the timeless wisdom it offers. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, the principles in this book can help you develop the psychological resilience needed to succeed in the markets. If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend picking up a copy.
Simple Trend StrategiesSimple Trend Strategies
In trading, successfully navigating market trends can make all the difference. This article provides a deep dive into four simple yet effective strategies that show you how to trade with the trend. Regardless of your level of experience, these strategies offer actionable insights that can enhance your trading journey.
Understanding Trend Trading
Trend trading is a strategy that aims to capture gains by analysing an asset's movement in a particular direction. Traders use various methods like price action, moving averages and chart patterns to identify the trend, be it upward (bullish) or downward (bearish).
The core philosophy is "the trend is your friend," implying that it's generally more effective to move with the market trend rather than against it. Understanding the trend not only increases the chances of making successful trades but also minimises risk, as traders set up safeguards, like stop-loss orders, aligned with the trend's trajectory.
Trends are typically denoted by a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) in an uptrend or lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) in a downtrend. Recognising these patterns is crucial for trading with the trend.
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HMA Crossover Strategy
The Hull Moving Average (HMA) crossover strategy leverages two different HMA lengths to generate trading signals. The advantage of using HMA over other types of moving averages, like the Simple Moving Average (SMA) or the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is its superior smoothing and reduced lag, providing more timely entries and exits.
The lengths of these HMAs should have a meaningful distance between them, such as 9 and 21 or 50 and 200, depending on the trader's preference and trading style. It’s also best to enter these trades in the direction of the broader trend direction.
Entry:
- For a bullish entry, traders may consider buying when the short-term HMA crosses above the long-term HMA.
- For a bearish entry, a selling position can be initiated when the short-term HMA crosses below the long-term HMA.
Stop Loss:
- Stop-loss orders may be placed either above or below a nearby swing point.
- Alternatively, the stop loss can be positioned just beyond the long-term HMA to provide a safety net.
Take Profit:
- Profits may be taken at support or resistance levels, identified beforehand.
- Another option is to exit the trade when an opposite HMA crossover occurs, signalling a potential trend reversal.
50% Retracement Strategy
The 50% Retracement Strategy is ideal for trend forex trading. It focuses on identifying an existing trend and then entering a trade at a 50% retracement level.
Essentially, once a trend has been confirmed through a series of higher highs and higher lows (for an uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (for a downtrend), traders measure the distance between a last significant high and low within that trend. They then mark the midpoint as the 50% retracement level and aim to enter the trade at this point.
Entry:
- In an uptrend, traders may consider buying when the price retraces to the 50% level of the previous high-low range.
- In a downtrend, selling could be considered when the price retraces 50% from the previous low-high range.
Stop Loss:
- In an uptrend, a stop-loss order could be set below the last low to minimise risk.
- Conversely, in a downtrend, the stop-loss could be set above the last high.
Take Profit:
- Profits may be taken at the previous high in an uptrend or at the previous low in a downtrend.
- Alternatively, a suitable support or resistance level may serve as the exit point.
Breakout and Retest Strategy
The Breakout and Retest Strategy operates on a principle similar to the 50% Retracement Strategy: it starts by identifying an existing trend. Instead of focusing on the 50% retracement level, this strategy pays attention to price levels that have just been broken – either a recent high in an uptrend or a recent low in a downtrend.
The idea is to capitalise on the market's tendency to retest those levels before continuing the trend. Unlike the 50% strategy, prices may not retrace as deeply and could simply touch the level just broken, providing a more immediate entry opportunity.
Entry:
- In an uptrend, traders may consider buying when the price retests a recently broken high.
- In a downtrend, a selling position could be initiated when the price retests a recently broken low.
Stop Loss:
- Stop-loss orders can be set below the swing low in an uptrend or above the swing high in a downtrend.
- Stop losses can also be placed above or below a relevant support or resistance level within the identified range.
Take Profit:
- Profits may be taken at the previous high in an uptrend or at the previous low in a downtrend.
- Alternatively, suitable support or resistance levels can serve as an exit point.
MFI Overbought/Oversold Strategy
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that measures the inflow and outflow of money into an asset over a specific period. It provides traders with additional insights into market conditions, particularly in identifying overbought (above 80) or oversold (below 20) situations. When an asset is in a trend but experiences a short-term pullback, the MFI can help indicate whether the pullback is likely to continue or reverse, assisting traders in trend day trading.
Entry:
- Traders may consider entering a long position when the MFI moves out of the oversold territory during an uptrend pullback.
- Conversely, in a downtrend pullback, a short position can be considered when the MFI exits the overbought zone.
Stop Loss:
- Stop-loss orders might be set just below/above the nearest swing low or high.
Take Profit:
- Profits may be taken at the high or low of the established trading range, depending on the trend direction.
- Alternatively, a suitable support or resistance level can serve as the exit point.
The Bottom Line
As traders, understanding and exploiting market trends is crucial for better trading outcomes. The strategies outlined in this article provide straightforward methods for trend-based trading, each ready for experimentation to suit your own trading style.
Once you have got to grips with how they work in our free TickTrader platform, you can consider opening an FXOpen account. When you do, you’ll gain access to hundreds of trending markets, ready to put your newfound skills to the test. Happy trading!
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The Power of Trap Plays: Understanding Liquidity Warnings█ INTRODUCTION
In the world of trading and investing, understanding market dynamics is crucial for success. One of the key concepts that often go unnoticed, yet plays a significant role in shaping market behavior, is the "trap play." Trap plays are strategic moves by large market participants designed to exploit or manipulate liquidity, creating opportunities for informed traders while serving as warnings for those who are less vigilant. In this article, we explore why trap plays are good liquidity warnings and how they can be used to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.
█ WHAT ARE TRAP PLAYS?
Trap plays are deceptive market maneuvers where large players, often institutions or experienced traders, create a false sense of market direction to entice retail traders or smaller players into making decisions that ultimately lead to losses. These plays can manifest in various forms, such as false breakouts, sudden reversals, or unexpected price spikes, all aimed at manipulating the supply and demand dynamics of a particular asset.
For example, a false breakout occurs when the price of an asset appears to break through a significant support or resistance level, leading traders to believe that a strong trend is about to emerge. However, once these traders enter positions based on this perceived breakout, the price reverses, trapping them in losing positions.
█ TRADING TRAP PLAYS
While trap plays are often viewed negatively, they can be valuable tools for astute traders who recognize them as liquidity warnings. By understanding the mechanics of trap plays, traders can:
◆ Avoid Being Trapped: By staying vigilant and not rushing into trades based on apparent breakouts or breakdowns, traders can avoid falling victim to traps set by larger players. This caution is particularly important during periods of low liquidity or heightened market volatility.
◆ Identify Reversal Opportunities: Savvy traders can use trap plays to their advantage by recognizing when a false breakout or other trap play is likely to reverse. This insight allows them to position themselves on the right side of the trade, capitalizing on the missteps of others.
◆ Gauge Market Sentiment: Trap plays can also provide insights into market sentiment and the intentions of large players. By observing how these plays unfold, traders can gain a better understanding of the underlying liquidity conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
█ CONCLUSION
Trap plays are more than just deceptive tactics used by large market participants; they are also important liquidity warnings that can provide valuable insights into the state of the market. By recognizing and understanding these plays, traders can protect themselves from potential losses and even use these situations to their advantage. In the fast-paced and often unpredictable world of trading, staying aware of liquidity conditions and the potential for trap plays is essential for long-term success.
What we can see here The NASDAQ is a major stock exchange known for its high concentration of technology and growth-oriented companies. It is known for its electronic trading platform and for hosting many large tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. The NASDAQ often reflects trends in technology and innovation, which can make it a barometer for the tech sector's performance. Its fast-moving and often volatile nature can offer both opportunities and risks for investors