VARAUSD vs MATICUSD - This is a bull flagIf you only trade the VARA chart without understanding how the market is trading within the lines of correlation, you will mistaken one pattern for another. The two market patterns I have circled are both bull flags. The problem is that VARA has a much lower amount of liquidity i.e. standing buy orders to support lower order walls.
This causes patterns on this chart to become smeared. This is why a trader must always compare against correlated assets. Which is why my chart will often have Polygon right up next to VARA even though VARA is probably going to show a little tigher correlation with Polkadot. It is a preference I.
DXY, USDX, and a number of other indexes correlate to Bitcoin however often either against or with and overall doesn't change much on the daily. It doesn't take long to see correlation since often whenever USDX or DXY goes up JPYUSD or BTC will fall. Reverse correlation most of the time although JPYUSD has been a bad example overall since that asset typically tanks long term.
And going back to the current chart, the chart patterns are ugly and the overall market structure is full of volatility, fear and greed. I use this to my advantage.
Chart Patterns
A big picture analysis of stock trends within a sectorThis kind of analysis helps in picking right stocks like the big boys do.
The chart above showcases the normalized EMA lines of all stocks within the Consumer Services sector. By utilizing EMA(moving averages) lines instead of stock prices, we can observe a smoother and clearer representation of price movements across various stocks.
On the left side of the chart, the upper half displays the price chart of Marriott International (MAR), while the bottom half illustrates a custom candlestick chart composed of approximately 25 stocks within the Consumer Services sector. This sector chart reveals a striking similarity to MAR's price movement, despite MAR's relatively small 6% weightage in the sector calculation.
A closer examination of the EMA lines on the right side of the chart reveals that most stocks within the sector have exhibited similar price movement, underscoring the high correlation among these stocks. This phenomenon of similar price movement suggests that stocks within a sector tend to move in tandem, offering valuable insights for sector-based trading strategies.
Few EMA lines(stocks) are flat or went down and most other stocks went up in line with the sector. Investors who invested in those uptrending stocks will take profits while the ones who invested in those non performing stocks would lose out on the profitable opportunity that created by sector up movement.
Stay tuned for my next update, where I'll reveal how to use performance lines beside sector chart to uncover top-performing stocks within the sector that outshine their average-returning peers.
What's your take on this sector-wide correlation? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
WHAT IS QM (SIMPLY)Quasimodo trading setup or QM is an advanced reversal pattern in which its formation signals the end of a trend, and most traders use its variants to improve trading results in the forex market.
If u don't understand it, there is high possibility for stop hunting.
u may heard HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, yes?
QM is exactly HAD (head and shoulder) and u can trade it at: FL'S _ S&D ZONES and SR lines.
it is also a Great show for money back and u can short it at all.
What invalidates it?
only Do not ENG the first support.
LIVE TRADING ON HOW TO TRADE LONDON SESSION Here in this video i show you how you can trade London session on live trading using Eurusd and Gbpusd so this pair is very important for trading this . I mark high and low of Asian session befor entering . Practice before on real account . Use money management
Alerts Are a Trader’s Best FriendStaring at charts all day doesn’t make you a better trader, it just makes your eyes tired and your nerves fried.
That’s why I rely on alerts—signal lines at key levels in both directions.
They’re like my personal assistants, letting me know when the market needs my attention, so I don’t have to babysit the screen.
It gives me time to focus on other things—whether it’s hobbies, learning, or just relaxing—without the fear of missing a move.
When an alert triggers, I calmly assess the situation, decide the next steps, or set more alerts and close the chart again.
Save your energy for the moments that matter.
Let the alerts do the waiting for you 🚨.
Your eyes, nerves, and trading performance will thank you 😁.
Festive Learning: Using the MACD to Determine a TrendIn previous posts within this series, we have covered, Bollinger Bands and moving averages, where we’ve shown how each technique can help determine the trending condition of an asset. If you haven’t already, please look back at our timeline to view these posts.
Now we want to look at another trending indicator, which can help to provide a quick and easy read of the current trend. This is called the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator, or MACD for short.
The MACD uses 12 and 26 day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are the default settings within the Pepperstone charting system.
Exponential averages differ from simple moving averages as they place greater emphasis on the latest closing data for a particular instrument. This goes someway to try and overcome the issue of averages being lagging in nature.
By giving the latest closing levels greater importance within the exponential calculation, these averages can turn more quickly than a simple average, to reflect price direction changes earlier.
What is the MACD and How Does it Use Moving Averages?
The MACD uses 12 and 26 day EMAs and measures the gap between the two.
This is important as the 12 day EMA will follow the price action of an instrument more closely than the 26 day EMA.
Meaning, as prices rise above the averages in an uptrend, the gap between the shorter and longer term EMA increases in a positive way.
While in a downtrend as price falls below the 2 declining averages, the gap increases in a negative way.
Let’s look further at the daily chart of AUDUSD and add the MACD indicator to see how this works in practice.
The blue line of the indicator shows the gap between the 2 exponential moving averages, while the red line is a 9 day moving average of the indicator line.
What Does the MACD Show, and How Can We Use This to Help Within Our Day to Day Trading?
It’s a trending indicator, so we use it to confirm the trending condition of an instrument, but we also use it to help us decide if whether our sentiment towards that instrument should be positive or negative.
There are 4 possible signals we can highlight by using the MACD.
These are,
• an aggressive uptrend,
• an aggressive downtrend,
• a correction within an uptrend
• a correction within a downtrend.
An Aggressive Uptrend Signal.
This is where the rising MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) is above zero and above its own average.
This reflects the 12 day EMA being above the 26 day EMA, and the gap between the two averages is increasing, as the price of an instrument moves higher.
This set-up reflects when sentiment should be positive towards an instrument, as the potential is that the current uptrend could continue.
Aggressive Downtrend Signal
The aggressive downtrend signal is when the MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) is falling below both zero and its own average.
This reflects where the declining 12 day EMA is falling below the declining 26 day EMA, as both averages track the declining price of an instrument.
This can highlight when sentiment should be negative towards an instrument because the current downtrend may extend further.
But what about consolidation signals?
Consolidation Within an Uptrend
A consolidation within an uptrend can develop when the MACD indicator line (blue line on the MACD chart) while still above zero has crossed below its own moving average (re line on the MACD chart).
This is not a negative signal because the MACD line is still above zero suggesting an uptrend is currently in place, but it highlights a reaction to the recent price strength is appearing and that a possible consolidation within the uptrend may materialise.
It can suggest a period where we may wish to close any long positions in the instrument at this point and revert to the sidelines, as a downside correction could be due.
We would then look for the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) to either break below zero to suggest a downtrend is now evident, or the more aggressive uptrend to resume if the MACD line breaks back above its own average.
Consolidation Within a Downtrend
A consolidation within a downtrend is seen when the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) is still below zero but has crossed above its own moving average (red line on MACD chart).
Here, we may want to close any potential short positions, as a potential upside recovery may be developing.
This is not a positive signal because the MACD line (blue line on the MACD chart) is still below zero highlighting a downtrend is still in play, but suggests a reaction to recent price weakness is materialising and that a recovery is possible within the on-going downtrend.
We would then look for the MACD line to either break above zero to suggest an uptrend for the instrument could be starting, or for prices to resume their downside moves and for the MACD line to break under its own average (red line on MACD chart) to highlight the more aggressive downtrend is still dominating.
We can use these signals to either initiate outright trades, or to help us gauge the trending set-up within any instrument at any given time.
The MACD indicator could then be combined with other techniques to help time trade entry within the direction of the confirmed trend, which we hope to cover in future posts.
So, in recent weeks we have looked at various techniques and indicators to help us gauge the trending condition of an asset at any given time.
Each can be used either on their own or in combination with the other and price patterns, but we’re sure you will find them very useful to incorporate within your own analysis and trading.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Stock Market Logic Series #11If you are not adding the pre-and-after-hours of trading on your chart, you don't actually see the full picture of your trading analysis.
A lot of times, the market makers will push the price on the pre/after-hours times on a light volume, and will define the true low or high of the day, where you could have gotten inside with a much better price and stop placement, so when the trading hours starts, you don't feel lost that you don't have a close risk point to put your stop at.
Also, in those outside-hours, you can clearly see a much more sensible picture where the trendlines are much more clear and it is clear what the price is doing.
Also, I don't even talk about when EARNINGS are happening... and there is a high chance for gap to happen in one direction or the other.
After a gap happens, if you only look on the trading hours, you have only the information of the first 5 min of the day so you have some estimation of what could be the high or low of the day, but looking at the pre-market you could see what are the possible true high or low of the day, which is completely different.
Also, after a gap happens, your indicators are "wrong", since they miss information.
As you go into a higher frame this becomes less important, but still... some crazy huge moves start in the pre/after-hours and the price just never comes back, it just flies to the moon. So why not position yourself at a better price with better stop placement?
The logic behind it, is that if BIG money wants a stock badly... he will buy it whenever it is possible and available before the other BIG money will snatch it from it...
Look how clear price action looks in this chart:
Dow Jones Trend Day Setup 5* OpportunitiesMy goal going forward into 2025 is to only trade the Parabolic Trend trades and to master them. They happen roughly 5-8 times per month. Just catching 1 of these per month is all I need. Using 3% risk per one of these setups can deliver 15-20% gains.
The universal entry criteria is the 5 minute close back inside the 20sma.
The timeframe for entries are either 1 hour before the open, the open, and 1 hour after the open.
Profit targets are generally until the close or a range expansion target of 1-2 times the Asia/London box.
Below are multiple charts of the same setup with the green box being the ideal entry.
If I can only trade 1 trade PER MONTH, this is what I will focus on.
Super Simple Buying and Selling Stocks within TradingView.With the market pulling back nearly 14% over the past few days, I decided to take a punt on a potential recovery. I've opened a position in TQQQ , a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 (top 100 tech stocks).
In this post, I show how easy it is to place an order using a connected TradingView broker—in my case, TradeStation—and set up a bracket order with a take-profit and stop-loss.
If the trade moves against me, the stop-loss automatically manages my risk by closing the position. If it moves in my favor, the take-profit ensures I lock in gains and exit automatically.
Of course, these levels can be really easily adjusted manually as the trade progresses, providing flexibility as the stock moves. You could choose to set your levels based on your favorite indicators signals or some other means.
This isn’t trading advice—just an example of how you can leverage TradingView’s functionality.
It’s real money on the line—my money—so wish me luck! That said, the market could still head lower with ongoing Fed FUD, but I’m holding out hope for a little help from Santa. 🎅
Analyzing Market Trends and FED Interest Rate Decisions "SPX"The daily chart above highlights FED interest rate cut decisions with vertical lines. I've used the DJI ticker instead of SPX, as it provides a more comprehensive representation of the overall market, unaffected by the dominance of the Magnificent Seven.
My analysis focuses on monthly candle peaks (indicating overbought conditions) and lows (indicating oversold conditions), as well as direction reversals. This cycle repeats, forming higher highs and higher lows. By identifying these patterns, we can determine the market direction, which is either trending upward (green) or downward (red).
Now we know the direction where the market is heading. Its either trending to form a new higher high OR new higher low.
With that understanding, when we plot vertical lines on FED decision days, the direction has not changed. HOWEVER, the decision is accelerating the market direction to its targeted price(either higher high or higher low).
The above guidance is for swing traders for a duration of about 2/3 weeks. Intraday traders can benefit this by looking at days high and low before decision announcement and knowing where the market is generally headed.
As a trader, I utilize custom-built screener tables that cascade data across multiple timeframes and stocks/sectors. This unique approach provides a fascinating big-picture perspective, highlighting strong stocks and sectors.
Reach out to me OR follow me for further insights.
Happy Trading!!
Breakout-reversal level entryAs you can see from the analysis we had a range that was broken below which created a double bottom( neckline as our Resistance), then price broke above and respected our resistance which caused us to have a New Support, which means we have a new level we can trade at. Price broke out and reversed towards the New Support, which is where I entered my trade and made some profits. So all in all, it's important to use your levels to look for entries, don't use levels that are not respected by the market also wait for the market to reached your setup and don't chase it.
If you would like more detailed tutorials like these comment below so I can post more
Options Indicator Explained - so you can SEE what you tradeEver since we created this indicator back around 2020 on the TradingView platform it is so far the best platform for our analysis, research, coding, and development of different trading tools. This was 4 years ago, but we have been with TradingView almost for a decade !
The whole concept of this indicator came when a long time ago we read the big big book of options, and could not understand how come the stock price moved up but our calls are losing money ! Yes, we have been there too. And then came this indicator to life. We don't make a trade without it ever since. If you saw the video, you clearly know why.
Let's delve into some key concepts that can elevate your trading game:
### 1. Visualizing Profit and Loss
One of the most powerful tools in an options trader's arsenal is the ability to plot profit and loss lines on a chart. This visualization helps you understand the time decay of the options you buy or sell. By seeing how your potential profits or losses change over time, you can make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades.
### 2. Moving Beyond the Greeks
The Greeks—Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega—are often emphasized in options trading, but their standalone value can be limited. What truly matters is how these metrics impact your profit and loss curvature. Think of it like driving a car: while an acceleration meter provides some information, what you really need is the speedometer and a clear view of the road. Focusing on the profit and loss curves allows you to grasp the real impact of these factors on your trades.
### 3. Identifying Pivot Points
By observing profit and loss lines, you gain insights into optimal entry and exit points. Placing trades at pivot points can enhance your reward-to-risk ratios. Certain options offer generous room for stop-loss placement and quick profits if you choose pivot points where price rejections are likely. Seeing these lines helps confirm that your trading idea has a high probability of success.
### 4. Conducting Volatility Simulations
Professional volatility testing with your indicator is crucial. It allows you to anticipate how changes in volatility will affect your options' profit and loss. Each case is unique and dependent on the underlying stock, so it's vital to have contingency plans and avoid trading blindly. You must always take into account that the volatility can drop or rise against you, and you need to see that even if it happens, you will still be okay, and not be a dreamer. Reality is everything, trade realistically.
### 5. Timing Your Trades
Boost your performance by understanding how much profit you can lose (when buying options) or gain (when selling options) over the duration of your trade. This knowledge helps you make better timing decisions and manage your trades more effectively while you are inside the trade. In some trades you can clearly see that you just don't have the time to survive a correction and then wait for the next pulse wave to come and save you, you can see clearly that it is better to take profit today, since you just do not have enough time for a correction and a bounce back to the current profitable price. In options, what it is profitable today is NOT profitable tomorrow. I show you this in the video.
### 6. Simplifying with Profit Lines
You don't need to rely heavily on the Greeks anymore. Profit lines already account for these metrics, freeing your mind to focus on price action. This approach eliminates the confusion often associated with the non-linear behavior of options, rooted in complex models like Black-Scholes.
### 7. The Black-Scholes Model and Implied Volatility
Understanding the Black-Scholes model and implied volatility is fundamental. These concepts help you grasp how options are priced and how market conditions can impact their value. Using the indicator, you don't need even to know who or what is the Black-Scholes Model, since it does all the work and heavy lifting for you, by plotting you exactly what you truly need... Where you make a profit, where you will make a loss, and how much (profit lines).
### 8. In the Money vs. Out of the Money
Knowing the difference between "in the money" and "out of the money" options is crucial. In-the-money options have intrinsic value, while out-of-the-money options are more speculative and rely on price movements to become profitable.
### 9. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Options
Short-term call options offer quick potential gains but come with higher risks due to time decay. Long-term call options, on the other hand, provide more time for your trade to work out, reducing the impact of time decay but often requiring a larger capital investment. I show a clear example in the video.
### 10. Maintaining Reward-to-Risk Ratios
You should make sure you always maintain the reward-to-risk ratios in your favor BEFORE you enter the trade, this is what keeps you in the game and makes you thrive and not just survive. Do you think they let a pilot to land an airplane, just with his "gut feeling" or do they give them an indicator to SEE the runway? If you don't see your profit and loss lines, you don't see the runway when you land your plane. We've all seen those wallstreetbets BLIND crash landings in options and know how they end before they started. This can and should be avoided, always know your risk, and your potential reward.
### 11. Proof of Accuracy
Finally, reliable indicators provide proof of accuracy, showing you the same profit or loss you'd experience given stock movements and implied volatility changes. This consistency gives you confidence in your trades, eliminating confusion and preventing unexpected losses.
In the end of the video, there is proof of the accuracy, that the indicator in did shows you the same profit or loss you will have in the position, given the stock movement and implied volatility changes, so you can rest assured that your landing indicator will not surprise you no matter the weather, you will have full control on your options trade. No more the feeling of confusion and then your fast profit crushes to zero or even a loss and you don't know why.
Master these concepts, and you'll have a robust framework for navigating the complexities of options trading with precision and confidence.