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Chart Patterns

Minor Structure + Momentum: Part OneWhen analyzing momentum, the most important question to consider is: Where should I focus my analysis of momentum? Many traders often find themselves confused by the concept of "momentum" as they try to derive meaning from every single candlestick movement. The straightforward answer is: Analyze momentum when the price is at key levels or is getting close to them! In particular, for minor structures (trends), you should pay close attention to momentum near the 13 and 20 EMAs, as we do in ARZ Trading System. Keynotes: a minor trend is still valid, if these two key points are continuously happening: 1. We always expect a loss of momentum for price when approaching the key levels, and gaining momentum when it's moving away from them, in the direction of the trend. 2. A very important sign of gaining momentum is crossing and closing the whole previous candle(s). Let's analyze this chart: - It is obvious that candles #1 to #3 are showing a loss of momentum, but they are far from key levels and it just might mean a retracement, which happened. But again it might not retrace at all! - from #3 to #4, we see price is gaining momentum, which is not good! so both key levels could easily break, which happened. But again in #5 and #6, we see the price losing momentum in the opposite direction of the previous downtrend, and gaining it in the direction of the minor downtrend. so everything is good. - Again #7 confirms the momentum in the direction of minor downtrend. - In retracement up until #8, the price is gaining momentum upward, which is not good. But candles #9 through #10 again are in our favour. - the correction to #11 is not looking good for a downtrend, and in the next candles, to #13 we are not convinced that sellers are stronger. So, we are cautious here. And the price finally gains momentum upward and we reach #14. - From #15 to #16, momentum is the same for both buyers and sellers. It is a tight range and can do nothing until we see a clear sign of gaining momentum (or losing) in one direction. And the sign came in the shape of candle #17. If this tight range were to continue, it should have been a bullish strong candle.
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by forexise
How the Head and Shoulders Pattern Alerts the End of a Trend🔵 How the Head and Shoulders Pattern Alerts the End of a Trend NSE:NIFTY formed a Head and shoulders pattern this summer. This is one of the most important patterns when it happens after a long bull or bear trend because a trend change or at least a large neutral period is likely to happen. The pattern is often poorly drawn, and investors make bad decisions due to a lack of knowledge about Head and Shoulders patterns. At TopChartPatterns, we let an AI to find the patterns, so we just need to decide where and when to trade the pattern. ✅ When is a Head and Shoulders pattern confirmed? A head and shoulders MUST never be traded before the support line (blue) is broken . If the line is not broken, there is NO head and shoulders unfolding. Once the price breaks below the blue support line, a short trade with tight stop losses should be initiated. 💰 How to trade this chart pattern? You should short the underlying as soon as the blue support line is broken, with a tight stop loss above the support line. Translated to money: 1. Use tight stop loss around 1-2% 2. Use a take profits as large as the pattern, 6% in the NIFTY example. The returns are 3 to4 times the risk, so enjoy the journey while risking such a small percentage. 🛡️ The risk management strategy As we have done in so many previous ideas, remember you can split the position in 2. 50% of the position in a take profits as large as your stop loss (adapt SL and this 1st TP to local supports/resistance levels) 50% of the position to a price as large as the previous pattern or even around 1,5 times the pattern. (target 3 in the chart). The second TP is less likely to happen, but as soon as the first one has been reached (extremely high probability), this becomes a risk-free trade. ✴️ BUT… Where can I profit from this pattern NOW? There are head and shoulders patterns forming in: OANDA:EURJPY NASDAQ:MSFT
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TopChartPatterns
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics. This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions. 2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data: Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors. Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days. Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment. Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles. 3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets. Example: ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies. By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness. 4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces: Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes. Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments. Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions. Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers. 5. Case Studies To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships: o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures): Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior. Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite. o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures): Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers. Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty. o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries): Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53). Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty. These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context. 6. Conclusion Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies. The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
2
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part 4 - minor structure_2To confirm a minor trend, we need to see a Strong Break of Structure (BoS) with the body of a candle, in the direction of the trend. This means in the ARZ Trading System, shadows do not count as breakouts for confirming a trend continuation. let's elaborate on the concept: - after receiving pullback from 13&20EMA in A, the previous low has been broken strongly and made a stBoS. This confirms we are in a minor downtrend. So, from now on we are looking to go short any chance we get. - in B & C we are looking for a reason to sell. but weak BoS after will make us cautious and at #1 we are analyzing and not trading until the direction of the minor trend gets clear. - the strong bullish candle after #1 tells us we are indeed in a ranging market! Not an uptrend. Please note that: the minor uptrend should be confirmed. - in D we see buyers are weak, and at #2 it confirms that a minor uptrend is not going to happen. Now wait for a confirmation of a minor downtrend. - stBoS after E confirms we are in a minor downtrend, so we look for opportunities to sell after F, G, H, & I. - at #3 we are officially in a range again. So, we trade as a ranging market, until J tells us we have to trade downward. - a wBoS after K warns us, and we see the price reversed upward. Weak continuation downward at #4 & #5 confirms it. - the stBoS upward after #5 tells us we are in an uptrend, but a weak pullback up until 6 tells us the uptrend might be done. - Then, there is a stBoS downward after L. So, until it breaks upward and has a strong BoS in that direction, the price could continue declining. Keynote: Short-term traders must always trade in the direction of the minor trend. Unless they are to trade in a ranging market or are medium or long-term traders. Question: do we have to just use periods 13 & 20 for analyzing short-term trends? Answer: Absolutely not! It's the trader's choice only.
Education
by forexise
2
Prop Trading - All you need to know !!A proprietary trading firm, often abbreviated as "prop firm," is a financial institution that trades stocks, currencies, options, or other financial instruments with its own capital rather than on behalf of clients. Proprietary trading firms offer several advantages for traders who join their ranks: 1. Access to Capital: One of the most significant advantages of working with a prop firm is access to substantial capital. Prop firms typically provide traders with significant buying power, allowing them to take larger positions in the market than they could with their own funds. This access to capital enables traders to potentially earn higher profits and diversify their trading strategies. 2. Professional Support and Guidance: Many prop firms offer traders access to experienced mentors, coaches, and support staff who can provide guidance, feedback, and assistance. This professional support can be invaluable for traders looking to improve their skills, refine their trading strategies, and navigate volatile market conditions. 3. Risk Management Tools: Prop firms typically have sophisticated risk management systems and tools in place to help traders monitor and manage their exposure to market risks. These systems may include real-time risk analytics, position monitoring, and risk controls that help traders mitigate potential losses and preserve capital. 4. Profit Sharing: Some prop firms operate on a profit-sharing model, where traders receive a share of the profits generated from their trading activities. This arrangement aligns the interests of traders with those of the firm, incentivizing traders to perform well and contribute to the overall success of the firm. Overall, prop firms provide traders with access to capital, technology, support, and learning resources that can help them succeed in the competitive world of trading. By leveraging these advantages, traders can enhance their trading performance, grow their portfolios, and achieve their financial goals.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
CHOCH vs BOS !!WHAT IS BOS ? BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market structure bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset. To spot a bullish / bearish market structure we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market structure we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the structure this is the BOS. BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move WHAT IS CHOCH? CHOCH - change of character. Also known as reversal, when the price fails to make a new higher high or lower low, then the price broke the structure and continue in other direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Market Structure Identification !!Hello traders! I want to share with you some educational content. ✅ MARKET STRUCTURE . Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit. ✅ Types of Market Structure Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl) Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll) Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating . I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual structure
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
What is Confluence ?✅ Confluence refers to any circumstance where you see multiple trade signals lining up on your charts and telling you to take a trade. Usually these are technical indicators, though sometimes they may be price patterns. It all depends on what you use to plan your trades. A lot of traders fill their charts with dozens of indicators for this reason. They want to find confluence — but oftentimes the result is conflicting signals. This can cause a lapse of confidence and a great deal of confusion. Some traders add more and more signals the less confident they get, and continue to make the problem worse for themselves. ✅ Confluence is very important to increase the chances of winning trades, a trader needs to have at least two factors of confluence to open a trade. When the confluence exists, the trader becomes more confident on his negotiations. ✅ The Factors Of Confluence Are: Higher Time Frame Analysis; Trade during London Open; Trade during New York Open; Refine Higher Time Frame key levels in Lower Time Frame entries; Combine setups; Trade during High Impact News Events. ✅ Refine HTF key levels in LTF entries or setups for confirmation that the HTF analysis will hold the price. HTF Key Levels Are: HTF Order Blocks; HTF Liquidity Pools; HTF Market Structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Importance of 50%, in MCAs we analyzed before ( read here ), the price movement on Cardano has been completed. It is trending upward now. The main entry point for the ARZ Trading System is when we have a pullback from more than one S&R level on the border of drawn MC boxes (#1). Either MC, LTP or UTP. Here we see sometimes this alignment will happen on 50% of the boxes, which is acceptable when it is in the direction of the major and minor trend (#2 & #3). Watch 4H: - Strong Bullish: Target 1: $0.9414, Target 2: $0.9890 - Strong Bearish: Target: $0.8459 Keynote: until the minor trend is not violated , the next target points are based on the base MC box size.
Education
by forexise
BB, the correct way of usage - Part OneLike EMA, Bollinger Bands are famous indicators that can be used to analyze the market. We discussed the current usage of EMA in parts One , Two , and Three , and we will continue to do so. Now, let's talk about BB. In ARZ Trading System, we have a specific rule for this indicator, to find the best spot to enter the market. - BB settings: 20 period, 2 deviation. BB meaning: 1. When its bands are converging, we are close to a breakout. We have to consider MC boxes and EMAs to analyze what direction it might break out. 2. When diverging, we are in a breakout. If price movement continues and still we see the bands diverging, we are still in breakout mode. 3. When bands are flat, we are in a ranging market. In our system, the best place for entering into a reversal position is when at the same time, the price has touched MC ( what is MC? ) and BB levels, just as follows: - The MC candle is shown. we expect the market to retrace after reaching the UTP level. - After breaking the UTP level in candle #1, the price couldn't cross and close and retraced in #2 inside the UTP area. So, MC is still valid. - From #2 to #3 we have no reason to trade upward. - In #3 the price has touched both LTP level and BB. So, we look for a buy position. - in #4 we analyze the market as a seller. Because the price has touched both the support of MC and BB. - in #5 again we see a similar situation as #3, so we are buyers. - in #6, the price couldn't cross and close after the breakout candle, so MC is still valid.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by forexise
1
Credit Spread Layout and indicatorsRecently trading view introduced options ticker data. Here is an example on one useful trading layout where you can look at the underlying asset, in this case TQQQ. The main indicator is a forked BS options model from @QuantNomad. The other two options are call option tickers expiring in 2 days at different strikes. I'm also using a modified version of the seasonality indicator to apply a modified Kelly criterion and estimate the max position size with my risk tolerances and macro economic outlooks (this can be used for your options budget). The fun thing is, you can now get the real options pricing and not just a theoretical value using the security ticker. In this example "TQQQ241122C78.0" and "TQQQ241122C77.0" can be used to generate credit spread options pricing using real time data. You can also theoretically generate volitility buy stop and sell stop orders using ADX and other methods which I'm finding is pretty awesome.
TEducation
by livingdracula
EUR/USD and the Fakeout Swing Reversal PatternThe Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern is a straightforward and robust candle pattern that has stood the test of time. In this analysis, we’ll explore how the pattern has recently appeared on EUR/USD’s daily candle chart, examining both its successes and failures while identifying the key factors that influence its performance. What is the Fakeout Swing Reversal Pattern? The Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern is a technical setup that captures moments when price fakes a breakout beyond a key swing high or low, only to sharply reverse. This pattern is particularly effective when the fakeout occurs within two candles, signalling that the market’s initial push was unsustainable and trapping traders on the wrong side. Bullish Scenario: The bullish Fakeout Swing Reversal begins with price breaking below a key swing low, seemingly triggering a downside move. However, within one or two candles, the price sharply reverses and closes back above the swing low, signalling a potential upward reversal. The psychology here lies in trapping short sellers who entered on the perceived breakout, forcing them to cover as buyers regain control. Bearish Scenario: In the bearish version, the price breaks above a key swing high, appearing to continue an uptrend. Yet, within one or two candles, it reverses and closes back below the swing high, indicating bearish momentum as long traders scramble to exit. Fakeout Swing Reversal Pattern: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Key Elements for Execution • Entry Trigger: Traders typically enter after the reversal candle closes, confirming the fakeout. • Stop Placement: Stops are often placed just beyond the extreme of the fakeout candle, keeping risk tightly managed. • Targets: Initial targets may be the midpoint of the prior range or a key support/resistance level, with traders adjusting based on market conditions. Successful and Failed Signals: A Reality Check No pattern works flawlessly every time, and the Fakeout Swing Reversal is no exception. Successful signals offer strong potential, but managing failed trades is equally, if not more, critical. How you handle losses defines your trading discipline and long-term success. On EUR/USD’s recent daily chart, we can identify several instances of this pattern, showcasing its effectiveness in both bullish and bearish scenarios. Some of these signals led to rewarding reversals, while others quickly invalidated, reminding us of the need for a clear plan to handle both outcomes. Examples: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Factors Influencing the Pattern's Effectiveness Several elements impact the success of the Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern: 1. Momentum Leading into the Test: Strong momentum approaching the swing high or low can increase the likelihood of a breakout. 2. Strength of the Fakeout: A sharp rejection after the breakout adds credibility to the reversal. 3. Prevailing Trend: Patterns aligned with the long-term trend often have a higher probability of success. Managing Trades: Cutting Losers and Letting Winners Run Cutting Losers Early: When this pattern works, it tends to work quickly, so if the reversal doesn’t play out promptly, consider exiting early. By cutting losers short, you keep the size of your average losing trade small, preserving capital for better opportunities. Letting Winners Run: Reversal trades inherently go against short-term momentum, making it challenging to let winners run. However, traders can manage this by taking partial profits at key levels and moving their stops to break even. This approach protects gains while allowing the trade room to capitalise on a sustained move. By understanding the nuances of the Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern and applying disciplined risk management, traders can add a robust swing trading strategy to their trading arsenal. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
4
7 Best Chart Patterns For Trading Forex and Gold If you are studying chart parts, I prepared for you the list of 7 price action patterns you should never miss. In this article, I will share with you powerful chart patterns for trading forex or any other financial market. These patters work perfectly for day trading, swing trading and scalping. We will study real market examples. I will explain the psychology and meaning of each pattern and explain to you how to trade them. The first chart pattern that we will discuss is double top. The pattern is formed on the edge of a bullish impulse. It is based on 2 equal highs and a higher low between them. A higher low composes a minor support. A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close below that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is above the highs. Target is the closest strong support. The bullish version of a double top pattern is called double bottom The pattern is formed on the edge of a bearish impulse. It is based on 2 equal lows and a lower high between them. A lower high composes a minor resistance. A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close above that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is below the lows. Target is the closest strong resistance. The second powerful pattern is a descending triangle formation. The pattern is formed on the edge of a bullish impulse. It is based on at least 2 equal lows and 3 lower highs between them. A falling trend line should respect the lower highs. A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close below that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is above the highest high. Target is the closest strong support. A bullish variation of a triangle pattern is called an ascending triangle. The pattern is formed on the edge of a bearish impulse. It is based on at least 2 equal highs and 3 higher lows between them. A rising trend line should respect the higher lows. A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a neckline and a candle close above that. Entry is on its retest. Stop loss is below the lowest low. Target is the closest strong resistance. Chart pattern number 5 - Cup & Handle pattern. Cup & handle pattern is the variation of a double bottom. The only difference between 2 patterns is 1 lower low and a consequent higher low, instead of 2 equal lows. Entry trigger and trade execution rules are absolutely the same as with a double bottom. Stop loss is strictly below the lower low. A bearish version of a cup & handle is called an inverted cup & handle. Inverted cup & handle pattern is the variation of a double top. The only difference between 2 patterns is 1 higher high and a consequent lower high, instead of 2 equal highs. Entry trigger and trade execution rules are absolutely the same as with a double top. Stop loss is strictly above the higher high. The last and the most powerful chart pattern is the range . Range is a strictly horizontal parallel channel where the price sets equal highs and equal lows, respecting the support and the resistance of the range. This chart pattern signifies that the market found equilibrium, a fair value. A strong bullish signal is a breakout of a resistance of the range and a candle close above that. Target will be the next strong resistance, stop loss should lie below the lows of the range. A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a support of the range and a candle close below that. Target will be the next strong support, stop loss should lie above the highs of the range. Of course, there are more patterns to study but these 7 are essential . Your ability to recognize them is the key for accurate price action trading. Learn to spot these patterns and good luck in your trading.. Let me know which patterns do you want to study in the next article. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4
Trading USDCAD and AUDUSD | Silver Bullet Strategy 18/11/2024The Silver Bullet strategy, introduced by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT), aims to exploit certain market conditions within specific time frames. It involves strategically placing entries at the initial fair value gap that emerges within these periods. Yesterday, we executed trades using this strategy and we plan to show you how to incorporate this strategy into your trading toolkit. Firstly, it's crucial to understand what a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is and recognize the optimal time to look for these trades, which is between 10:00 and 11:00 EST. In order to get into the groove of trading we got to our trading desk at 09:55 and with the help of the sessions indicator we have the our trading zones mapped out for us. It should be noted that the initial candle marking the start of a trading session cannot constitute the Fair Value Gap (FVG), but it can serve as the first candle in the formation of an FVG. The trading session began, and we were scouting for setups to trade using the silver bullet strategy. After 15 minutes, we noticed a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed on the USDCAD pair, which drew our attention to it. This development indicates that we should be on the lookout for potential selling opportunities this trading session. We must wait for price to retrace back to the FVG and only execute a trade after the candle that enters the FVG has closed. This approach helps us avoid trades that enter the FVG and immediately hit our stop-loss. After 10-minutes we got a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG), and given that price did not surpass the high of the first candle in the FVG formation, we can enter this trade. A 10 pip stop loss will be set to provide sufficient room for the trade to develop. After initiating the trade, our USDCAD position experienced minimal drawdown, and by 10:35, it was progressing favorably in our desired direction. Simultaneously, we were evaluating potential setups on other currency pairs and observed the formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on AUDUSD. The next candle retraced into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) created on the AUDUSD pair, indicating that upon its close, we could execute a trade on this pair. The USDCAD position swiftly hit the take profit (TP) target. Within just 25 minutes, we completed this trade and shifted our focus to the other open position, AUDUSD. The AUDUSD position was also moving favorably in the direction we anticipated. After a period of waiting, we checked the position and found that it had reached the Take Profit (TP) after two hours. We succeeded in both trades we entered yesterday, risking 1% on each and aiming for a total gain of 4%. As observed, both trades experienced minimal drawdown, but this does not guarantee similar entries in the future. It is advisable to backtest this strategy and collect sufficient data to reinforce your confidence should you choose to trade using this strategy.
Education
by CleoFinance
From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Three - minor structureFor trend traders, analyzing the short and long-term trend direction is crucial. By usage of 20EMA & 13EMA, we can understand short-term trend direction and power. In future articles, we will look at Major Structure (long-term trend analyses). Keynotes: 1. When 20 is below 13 it means we are in an uptrend, and a Downtrend is when 20 is above 13. 2. EMAs should have a slope. If just one of them is flat, or both are sloped toward each other, or the price crosses and closes both of them, we are in the minor range. the possibility of a third one happening could be predicted by identifying an MC in the past (please refer to the MC article ). 4. We look at the distance between these two EMAs as a zone. So we don't expect the price to close exactly on any of them, to analyze for a probable pullback (Please refer to Part One and Two ). Watch 4H: - #1 Is where the price crosses and closes both. we are in a minor range. Then, the continuation of shaping green candles and then the cross of EMAs, means we are in a minor uptrend. - #2 a flat 13 shows a slight range, which then again turns into an uptrend. Although we have predicted it before by drawing MC boxes. - #3 shows 13 is toward 20. Then we are in a minor range. This is followed by price crossing and closing both in #4. Again it has been predicted by MC box to happen. - Candle #5 is normal. Because we are in a range and in here anything can happen. But when the price couldn't cross and close both in #6 and the continuation of the downtrend and pullbacks in #7 & #8, it shows we are in a minor downtrend now. So, we are not going to trade upward until it reverses.
Education
by forexise
Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up Highlights for Today - Trends and Market Share - Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise - Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway - Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges - Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest 1. Trends and Market Share Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025. Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense. Key Trends to Watch -Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative. -Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix. -YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion. -Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix. 2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter. -Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers. -Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024. - Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled. - Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets. - Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum. Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership. 3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring -Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million. -Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year. -Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas. -Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID. -Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user. Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical. 4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges -Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022. -Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%. -Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom. -Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability. -CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization. Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability. 5.Paramount: Streaming Growth -Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter. -TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%. -Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders. -Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs. -Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline. Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
NASDAQ:CMCSAEducation
by moonypto
15