O kurwa! Curvature in Technical Analysis: What Does It Tell Us?Curvature in TA is trading approach where curved lines are used instead of traditional straight trendlines. Curved lines help to visualize how trends evolve and can provide insights into potential reversals or trend continuations.
One of the known methods that utilize curvature is the MIDAS (Market Interpretation/Data Analysis System). This system was developed by physicist Paul Levine in 1995 and uses curved support and resistance lines based on Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). The curves adapt dynamically as price and volume change, helping to identify trend shifts and potential reversals.
💡 Why should we use Curvature?
Dynamic Support and Resistance: Curved lines adapt to price changes, unlike static horizontal lines.
Reversal Signals: They can signal potential trend shifts earlier than traditional methods.
Better Trend Visualization: They are particularly useful for parabolic or exponential price movements.
📊 Applying Curvature to HBAR (1H TF)
There are two curves on my chart. Both of them shows a curvature pattern forming on the 1-hour timeframe.
L: The curve on left side indicates a strong downward move, and the price appears to be following this curve closely.
R: On the other hand I have drawn curve on the right side, which is alligned as downward curve as well, but it has different angle.
This post is meant to test my theory on real life example.
🔑 Key Points:
Breaks away from the curvature could indicate a potential trend reversal or consolidation.
Combining this analysis with volume and momentum indicators can improve accuracy when predicting possible bounce or breakdown scenarios. Let's see how it works!
Chart Patterns
MARKET TREND/STRUCTURE USING XAUUSDTRADEWITHKENNY
EDUCATIVE : The trendline drawn above highlights the bullish confirmation on the 4-hour timeframe at the 2,890 support level , following a fake breakout . The 2,880 level acted as a key support zone and was retested multiple times , as shown on the chart before continuing the trend .
It’s always advisable to perform a top-down analysis , starting from the weekly timeframe down to the hourly and minute timeframes , to refine entries at key levels for better trade execution.
Disclaimer : This is my personal view and should not be considered financial advice.
UNDERSTANDING CHART/CANDLESTICK PATTERNSTRADEWITHKENNY
EDUCATIVE : The circled hammer candlestick on the chart confirms strong buying pressure on XAUUSD . As shown, the market broke through the key resistance level at 2,923.22 , continuing its upward movement.
I’ll be watching for buy opportunities on a retest of the previous key level at 2,923 . However, if the price breaks below this zone, it could move lower toward the key levels where the hammer candlestick initially formed.
KEY LEVELS : 2,923.22 , 2,911.85 , 2,906.77
CONCLUSION : Understanding chart patterns and market structure is crucial for trading success. Learning the market requires consistency, regardless of the losses you may encounter along the way.
Disclamer : This is my personal view and should not be considered financial advice.
Two Stock Market Crashes explained in one chart(ELLIOTT)The first is the Dot-Com Bubble that happened in Early 2000. This was the end of Wave 1(Black) and a retest was on the horizon. The market corrected with a zigzag marked in Red late in March 2000. What followed was a sharp drop Wave A(Red), B correction, and a 5 Wave move to complete Wave C of the zigzag. The 5 Wave move to Red Wave C is supported by Math as it retests at exactly at the 423% of the Fibonacci and 161.8% of Red Wave A on a Monthly time frame.
The second Stock Market Crash is the Financial Crisis of 2008 which by the way is the largest Stock Market Crash in the last 80 yrs. Historically, it is only second to the Great Depression of 1929. Can it be explained in terms of Elliott Wave? Yes. It was part of Wave 5 after Green Wave C ended. In fact, from Blue Wave 4/C there is a clear 5 wave move with a zigzag as its first correction and a flat as its second. The Financial Crisis is Wave 5 after the mentioned second flat but is called a Stock Market Crash!!
All this is avoidable.
2025 ICT Mentorship: Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 4_Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro
Greetings Traders!
In this video, we dive into the fundamental concept of Premium and Discount Price Delivery—a crucial aspect of smart money trading that helps us understand how institutions approach the market with precision and efficiency.
Understanding Currency Pairs
Before we explore premium and discount dynamics, it's essential to grasp the basics of currency pairs. A currency pair, like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, represents the value of one currency against another. For example, EUR/USD shows how many U.S. dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one euro (the base currency). Just like any other tradable asset, currency pairs fluctuate in value due to various economic and market factors.
Trading Is Part of Everyday Life
Believe it or not, everyone in the world is a trader. Whether you're buying groceries at a store or negotiating for goods and services, you're participating in trading activities daily. Some people aim to purchase items at a discount, while others can afford to pay a premium—it’s simply part of life.
However, banks and financial institutions take trading to another level. They don’t just trade haphazardly—they operate with extreme precision, aiming to make high-quality investments by executing trades at premium prices and targeting discount levels. This strategic approach allows them to capitalize on market inefficiencies and ensure profitable outcomes.
Why Premium and Discount Matter?
The concept of premium and discount price delivery is foundational for understanding how the market moves. By recognizing where the market is trading at a premium (overvalued) versus a discount (undervalued), traders can make more informed decisions and align their strategies with institutional order flow.
Stay tuned as we break down how to identify these zones on a chart and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy. Make sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update!
Happy Trading,
The_Architect
A Pseudoscience called Technical analysis!Pseudoscience is characterized as a system of theories or beliefs that are presented as scientific but lack the rigors and foundations of the scientific method. It often uses scientific-sounding language while being rooted in unsubstantiated claims or cultural beliefs, and it can be misleading and harmful.
My Evolution as a Market Analyst
Early Success on TradingView
In 2020-2021, I established myself as a leading analyst on the TradingView platform, becoming the top-rated contributor for equities and high-volume tickers including TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, ARKK, COIN, RIOT, WKHS, PLTR, NIO, and Bitcoin.
Educational Background
My journey began fifteen years ago with a comprehensive study of technical analysis methodologies. I immersed myself in seminal works including:
"Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy
"Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison
"Trading with the Andrews Pitchfork" by Glenn Wilson
"Elliott Wave - Fibonacci High Probability Trading" by Jared Sanders
Professional Recognition
While my initial goal in publishing analyses on TradingView was personal performance tracking, industry recognition came unexpectedly. Within three months, I ranked among the platform's top six contributors, advancing to the highest-rated position by the fourth month.
This visibility led to multiple partnership offers from brokerages and cryptocurrency projects, including Tiger Broker (NASDAQ: TIGR), all of which I declined to maintain independence.
Client Development
Following requests from followers, I established a contribution system to support ongoing analysis. My work attracted institutional attention, including a hedge fund managing hundreds of millions in assets that engaged me for educational services.
I developed a customized curriculum delivered via virtual platforms, maintaining a rigorous teaching schedule that ultimately revealed limitations in traditional technical analysis approaches—confirming Richard Feynman's observation that "When one teaches, two learn."
Methodological Evolution
This realization prompted a strategic pivot. I paused teaching to focus on skill development, particularly in programming and data analytics. I integrated advanced concepts including:
Game theory applications
Quantitative analysis frameworks
Behavioral finance principles
AI Integration
The emergence of accessible AI models represented a significant advancement for my practice. I leveraged Gemini (formerly Bard), ChatGPT, and Claude to enhance my options trading system, developing proprietary metrics to identify market inefficiencies in derivatives pricing.
Current Approach
Today, I operate as a substantially transformed analyst with a modernized market perspective. While my analytical methods employ sophisticated quantitative techniques, I continue presenting findings in traditional visual formats to accommodate audience preferences—a phenomenon explained by patternicity.
Understanding Cognitive Biases in Trading
Patternicity
A concept introduced by Michael Shermer describes our tendency to identify meaningful patterns within random noise
Highlights humanity's inherent drive to impose order on chaotic information
Significantly impacts decision-making processes as our minds actively seek connections, sometimes where none exist
Apophenia
The broader tendency to perceive connections between unrelated phenomena
First defined by German neurologist Klaus Conrad in 1958 as "unmotivated seeing of connections"
While common in everyday cognition, extreme manifestations can indicate psychological concerns
Trading in the AI Era
For market participants continuing to rely exclusively on traditional technical analysis methodologies—pattern trading, Elliott Wave theory, harmonic patterns, or price action systems—I offer this perspective: these approaches alone are increasingly insufficient for achieving consistent market outperformance in today's technology-driven environment.
How to Trade Trend ReversalsThey say, “the trend is your friend”—until it bends at the end. Every strong move eventually runs out of steam, but spotting the turn and trading it effectively is no easy task. Some traders try to anticipate the reversal, positioning ahead of time, while others wait for confirmation, entering once the trend has already shifted. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses, and the best approach depends on your risk tolerance and trading style.
Anticipating the Turn: Catching the Reversal Early
This approach focuses on momentum shifts and false breakouts before the price fully confirms a new trend. The goal is to enter before the crowd, capturing a reversal at the best possible price.
Key Tools:
Momentum Divergence – If price makes a new high or low, but RSI fails to follow, it suggests the trend is weakening.
False Breakouts – If price breaks a key level but immediately reverses, it signals a trap set for traders expecting continuation.
Benefits:
• Better risk-reward – Entering before the confirmation means stops can be tighter, allowing for a larger potential profit.
• First-mover advantage – Catching a trend change early means getting in at a great price before the majority of traders react.
Drawbacks:
• Higher failure rate – Many trends look weak before resuming, leading to premature entries and false starts.
• Requires precision – Entry and stop placement must be exact to avoid being caught in noise.
Waiting for Confirmation: Trading the Break
Rather than trying to predict the turn, this method waits for price to confirm the reversal by breaking key levels or forming a clear new trend structure.
Key Tools:
Trend Structure Shift – A series of lower highs in an uptrend, or higher lows in a downtrend, signals exhaustion.
Break of Key Support/Resistance – Once price decisively moves beyond a critical level, it confirms the trend change.
Benefits:
• Higher probability trades – Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of being faked out by temporary pullbacks.
• Less stressful – Entering after the break avoids the uncertainty of catching tops and bottoms.
Drawbacks:
• Worse risk-reward – Entry is later, meaning stops tend to be wider and potential profits smaller.
• Missed moves – Sometimes, a reversal happens too quickly, leaving conservative traders behind.
Applying Both Methods: Two Live Market Examples
1. EUR/USD – A Potential Trend Reversal in Progress
Recently, EUR/USD had been stuck in a long-term downtrend, with lower lows forming consistently. But the latest attempt to break support failed spectacularly.
Anticipatory Approach: Traders watching for a false breakout could have entered after price dipped below support and immediately reversed. RSI also showed bullish divergence—momentum was no longer confirming the downtrend. Entry would be placed just above the reclaimed support, with a tight stop below the false breakdown.
Momentum-Based Approach: Traders waiting for confirmation would have looked for a strong breakout above the first major resistance. After the false breakdown, price surged above prior swing highs, confirming buyers had taken control. The break of horizontal resistance provided a clearer entry signal, with stops below the breakout level.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. S&P 500 – The Start of a Breakdown?
The S&P 500 had been in a strong uptrend, but multiple failed attempts to break through resistance suggested buyers were losing momentum. Eventually, price broke below key support, triggering a sharp decline.
Anticipatory Approach: Traders looking for early signs of weakness could have entered short after noticing a series of failed breakouts. RSI divergence signalled that momentum was waning, and the repeated failures at resistance suggested a sell-off was brewing. The entry would have been placed near resistance, with stops just above the recent highs.
Momentum-Based Approach: A more patient trader would have waited for a confirmed break of support. Once the S&P sliced through a major level, a short trade could be initiated on the retest of the broken support, with stops just above the previous swing low.
S&P Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Final Thoughts: Choosing the Right Approach
Both methods have their advantages. Anticipating reversals can offer an early entry with strong risk-reward potential, but it also comes with a higher chance of false signals. Waiting for confirmation provides greater clarity and reduces the likelihood of premature entries, though it often means entering later in the move.
Neither approach is inherently better—it depends on your trading style, risk tolerance, and strategy. The key is consistency: whichever method you use, having a clear plan and following it with discipline is what separates successful traders from those who get caught on the wrong side of a trend change.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
3 Best Entry Points For Swing Trading (Forex, Gold)
What is the best entry point for swing trading?
You will learn 3 safest places/zones to buy or sell the market from, best swing trading time frame, and the most accurate swing trading setups.
Best Entry 1
Swing Trading After a Confirmed Trend Reversal
It can be a bearish trend violation and a start of a new bullish trend.
Look at a price action on WTI Crude Oil on a daily.
The market violated a bearish trend and started to trade in a new bullish trend, confirming the reversal.
In such a case, your best entry will be the closest daily support.
Alternatively, it can be a bullish trend violation and an initiation of a new bearish trend.
USDCAD was in an uptrend, steadily growing within a parallel channel.
Its violation confirmed the change of sentiment and start of a downtrend.
In this situation, your safest entries will be from the closest daily resistance.
Best Entry 2
Swing Trading with the Trend After Pullback
In a bullish trend, you should wait for
a completion of a bullish movement,
wait for a pullback
swing buy the market after it completes.
AUDCAD is in a rising trend.
A pullback tends to complete on a key support.
That will be your zone for buying.
Otherwise, in a bearish trend, you should let the price:
finish a bearish impulse
start a correctional movement
sell the market after the correction ends.
USDCHF was in downturn and updated the low. A local bullish movement started then.
It usually completes after a test of a key resistance. That will be the area where you should look for swing selling.
Best Entry 3
Swing Trading After Key Level Breakout
Bearish violation of a key daily support is a perfect signal to sell.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers and a strong indication that the price will continue falling.
NZDUSD broke and closed below a key daily support cluster. After a breakout, it turns into a potentially strong resistance.
For us, the best entry is a retest of a broken structure.
Bullish breakout of a key daily resistance is a reliable signal to buy.
After a violation of a horizontal resistance, it became a support on USDCHF Forex pair on a daily.
Your perfect entry for swing buying is its retest .
The entry zones that we discussed will provide the safest trading opportunities.
Learn to combine that with your trading strategy, it will help you to dramatically increase the profitability of your swing trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
This Pattern Could Return Ripple (XRP) Where It Started Rally Textbook, beautiful symmetric Head & Shoulders reversal pattern emerged on Ripple
approaching the Neckline.
Head is the highest peak among three on the chart
Neckline is built through valleys of the Head.
Price already tested Neckline support and was rejected yesterday.
Bearish trigger is on the clear breakdown.
Target is located at 0.55
It was calculated by subtracting the height of the Head from the Neckline.
It is the support area where XRP started its rally before.
"What goes up should come down"
18 Times, +2000%, 5800 Days - All About NASDAQ100 Corrections!Hi, all!
I need to repost some of my recent ideas on TradingView due to issues with the platform's moderation. Let's start! The most up-to-date post is coming right away - one that serves as a timely reminder during these interesting times: never forget history.
From November 2008 to February 2025, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index has grown by over 2000%! Yes, that’s a 20x increase! This tech giant, made up of the 100 leading technology stocks, has shown impressive strength.
For comparison, the S&P 500 has risen about 820% in the same period. A great performance but Nasdaq 100 leaves it far behind.
Has this been a straight-line rise? Not really. Looking back, it may seem like the perfect investment. But the road was not smooth. Nasdaq 100’s success came with painful drops, investor panic, and moments when it felt like the market would never recover.
From the outside, everything looks great. But would you sit through a 30% drop, while the news is screaming about the "end of the world"?
So, I decided to analyze every correction of 10% or more since the market bottom in 2008.
- How long do corrections and recoveries last?
- How often do they happen?
- What should investors know?
- Can this help you in any way?
DATA ANALYSIS - 18 corrections in Nasdaq 100 (2008–2025), -10% or more.
Retracement Stats:
- Average drop: -15%
- Median drop: -13%
- Biggest drop: -37.72%
- Smallest drop: -10%
Correction Length (17 completed corrections): How many days does a correction last from the peak to the bottom?
- Average: 60 days
- Median: 35 days
- Longest: 325 days
- Shortest: 14 days
Recovery Time: From bottom back to new highs.
- Average: 165 days (~5.5 months)
- Median: 119 days (~4 months)
- Longest: 752 days (over 2 years)
- Shortest: 42 days (~1.5 months)
Correction Frequency
If we take a rough estimate, in 5800 days, there were 18 corrections, which means a correction happens every 322 days (~10.5 months) on average.
Total Time Spent in Corrections vs. Rising Markets
- Corrections lasted 1016 days
- Recoveries lasted 2801 days
- Total time spent in "work mode": 3817 days
- Total "smooth uptrend" days: 1983 days (~5.4 years)
Basically, like a hardworking employee – the market spends more time struggling than rising!
What Can Investors Learn from This?
1. Accept Volatility
Knowing that market swings are normal, investors can keep a long-term perspective and avoid panic-selling during downturns.
2. Nasdaq 100 Has Always Recovered
In the long run, Nasdaq 100 has always bounced back to new highs. Each recovery has been different, but so far, making new all-time highs has never been a problem.
3. Make Better Decisions
Understanding psychological biases helps investors make rational choices and manage risks better.
4. Market Drops = Opportunities, Not Threats
Most big market rallies started when most investors were too scared to buy.
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett
Market drops always feel unique and scary but history shows they follow repeating patterns. And those who keep their emotions in check have the best opportunities.
"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." – Baron Rothschild
Final Thoughts: Is the current retracement a buying opportunity? No one knows for sure but history suggests - stay calm!
So, that's all. Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀
Have great day,
Vaido
💬 Before you leave... What’s your take on the current Nasdaq 100 correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇
Different Ways to Manage Your TradesFinding the perfect trade setup is just one part of the equation. How you manage that trade can be the difference between consistent profits and missed opportunities. In this video, I’ll break down the different ways you can manage your trades and how each method impacts your results.
We’ll cover essential trade management techniques, including setting fixed take-profits and stop-loss levels, using trailing stops to lock in gains, scaling out of positions with partial profits, and actively monitoring trades for dynamic adjustments. Each method has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the key is finding what aligns with your trading style, risk tolerance, and market conditions.
I’ll also share insights on how I utilize trade management to maximize returns while keeping risk under control. Whether you prefer a hands-off approach or actively managing your trades in real time, this video will help you refine your execution and make smarter decisions.
Watch the full breakdown now, and let me know in the comments, how do you manage your trades?
- R2F Trading
An Easy Method for Identifying Wave and Cycle Endings! :)Hello, you don’t need to discover anything else to make money in this market. Simply by identifying peaks and valleys at the same level, which align in terms of numbers, degrees, and angles, you can easily earn a lot of money. Don’t get caught up in vague and useless information, my friends. Much respect, Ehsan :)
Fibonacci Retracements - Gauging a Dip in Price Part 2 In a previous post on February 19th, we highlighted 2 ways to gauge the extent of a dip in the price of a particular instrument, after a phase of upside strength. This post outlined concepts related to relatively limited and shallow corrections in price, such as those where prices are moving back down to old highs, or a 10-day moving average. You can find this report on our timeline, so please take a look.
The next challenge comes when the price of a particular instrument sees a more extended up or downside move, then the question becomes, is there anything that might aid us to gauge this type of price activity?
Technical analysts and traders will often use Fibonacci retracements as a tool to identify possible levels of support and resistance in financial markets. However, due to their calculation, these are commonly used when a more extended price move materialises.
The good news is that these are available on the Pepperstone charting system and can be utilised within any timeframe that you may wish to analyse.
Using Fibonacci Retracements:
Whether you are looking at a move to the up or downside, Fibonacci retracements can be helpful to identify support levels that may halt a price sell-off of a particular instrument within an on-going uptrend, or resistance levels that may cap any recovery within an on-going downtrend.
However, if these support or resistance levels are broken on a closing basis, they can also be useful in providing insight into whether there is an increased potential for a more sustained move in the direction of that break.
From a trading standpoint, Fibonacci retracements can provide valuable insights into market behaviour and can assist traders to make more informed decisions. The support and resistance levels they identify may be used to determine potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as areas to set stop-loss and take-profit orders for existing positions.
What to Know About Fibonacci Retracements:
Leonardo Fibonacci was a 12th century mathematician who developed the Fibonacci number sequence. Certain ratios are derived from the sequence, including 0.618, which is also known as the Golden mean. This is an important ratio that occurs throughout art, the natural world and even the human body.
Within financial markets, we use 3 set percentage retracements obtained from ratios within the Fibonacci sequence, to measure the potential extent of price declines or rallies. We use the 38.2%, the 50% (which isn’t a true Fibonacci retracement, but has become accepted by traders, as it highlights half the original move), and the 61.8%.
While there are other percentages available on all charting systems, these are the main one’s technical analysts focus on when looking at potential retracement calculations.
Downside Move: Significant High to Significant Low
In a downside move, we run the Fibonacci retracement from a significant price high to a significant price low. These are levels that stand out to you as being important extremes on the chart of the instrument you are focused on; within whatever timeframe you are analysing.
The Pepperstone charting system will then automatically calculate the 3 set percentages and provide you with 3 potential resistance areas that may cap any upside recovery in price. (See chart above).
Upside Move: Significant Low to Significant High
Within an upside move, we run the Fibonacci retracement analysis from a significant price low to a significant price high. Here the Pepperstone system will automatically calculate 3 potential support areas that may halt any downside correction in price. (See chart above).
Using Retracement Levels to Trade:
While there is no guarantee that Fibonacci retracements will identify support or resistance levels that work every time, they can offer traders levels that are worthwhile monitoring.
This can be useful if an instrument is trading within a confirmed uptrend, and we are looking to use a dip in the price as an opportunity to buy at a lower level.
Or, if an instrument is trading within a downtrend, and we are looking to use any recovery in price as an opportunity to sell at a higher level.
Traders may also use Fibonacci retracements to place stop losses just above the identified resistance level or below the support.
This is because, if for example a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is broken on a closing basis, it can highlight the potential of a more sustained move in the direction of the break, which could potentially be to the 50% retracement, and if this is in turn breached, on to the 61.8% level, as seen in the chart above.
In the example above, if the decline in price continued and the 61.8% support was broken on a closing basis, the Fibonacci rule suggests a more sustained phase of price weakness maybe seen towards the significant low used within the original calculation (100% retracement).
If such activity is seen within an on-going downtrend in price, the opposite is true. A sustained rally that closes above the 61.8% potential resistance, could lead to a more sustained phase of price strength towards the significant high originally identified after a downside move in price (100% retracement).
In Conclusion:
Whatever timeframe you utilise on your charts; the Fibonacci retracement can be a useful tool in highlighting support or resistance levels during a correction or recovery phase in price.
Initiating trading decisions as a retracement level is neared, can sometimes offer opportunities to establish a position before the original move is resumed. However, equally, it also allows stop losses to be placed relatively close to an entry point, as confirmed breaks of a retracement level can suggest a price moves may continue further.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Soybean Futures Surge: ZS, ZL, and ZM Align for a Bullish MoveI. Introduction
Soybean futures are showing a potentially strong upcoming bullish momentum, with ZS (Soybean Futures), ZL (Soybean Oil Futures), and ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) aligning in favor of an upward move. The recent introduction of Micro Ag Futures by CME Group has further enhanced trading opportunities by allowing traders to manage risk more effectively while engaging with longer-term setups such as weekly timeframes.
Currently, all three soybean-related markets are displaying bullish candlestick patterns, accompanied by strengthening demand indicators. With RSI confirming upward momentum without entering overbought territory, traders are eyeing potential opportunities. Among the three, ZM appears to be the one which will potentially provide the greatest strength, showing resilience in price action and a favorable technical setup for a high reward-to-risk trade.
II. Technical Analysis of Soybean Markets
A closer look at the price action in ZS, ZL, and ZM reveals a confluence of bullish factors:
o Candlestick Patterns:
All three markets have printed bullish weekly candlestick formations, signaling increased buying interest.
o RSI Trends:
RSI is in an uptrend across all three contracts, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Importantly, none of them are currently in overbought conditions, suggesting further upside potential.
o Volume Considerations:
Higher volume on up moves and decreasing volume on down-moves adds credibility to the bullish bias.
III. Comparative Price Action Analysis
While all three soybean-related markets are trending higher, their relative strength varies. By comparing recent weekly price action:
o ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) stands out as the one which will potentially become the strongest performer.
Last week, ZM closed above its prior weekly open, marking a +1.40% weekly gain.
RSI is not only trending higher but is also above its average, a sign of potential continued strength.
o ZS and ZL confirm bullishness but lag slightly in relative strength when compared to ZM.
This comparative analysis suggests that while all three markets are bullish, ZM presents the most compelling trade setup in terms of technical confirmation and momentum.
IV. Trade Setup & Forward-Looking Trade Idea
Given the strong technical signals, the trade idea focuses on ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) as the primary candidate.
Proposed Trade Plan:
Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry: Buy above last week’s high at 307.6
Target: UFO resistance at 352.0
Stop Loss: Below entry at approximately 292.8 (for a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3:1
Additionally, with the introduction of Micro Ag Futures, traders can now fine-tune position sizing, making it easier to manage risk effectively on longer-term charts like the weekly timeframe. Given the novelty of such micro contracts, here is a CME resource that could be useful to understand their characteristics such as contracts specs .
V. Risk Management & Trade Discipline
Executing a trade plan is just one part of the equation—risk management is equally critical, especially when trading larger timeframes like the weekly chart. Here are key considerations for managing risk effectively:
1. Importance of Precise Entry and Exit Levels
Entering above last week’s high (307.6) ensures confirmation of bullish momentum before taking a position.
The target at 352.0 (UFO resistance) provides a well-defined profit objective, avoiding speculation.
A stop-loss at 292.8 is strategically placed to maintain a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, ensuring that potential losses remain controlled.
2. The Role of Stop Loss Orders & Hedging
A stop-loss prevents excessive drawdowns in case the market moves against the position.
Traders can also hedge using Micro Ag Futures to offset exposure while maintaining a bullish bias on the broader trend.
3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure
The Micro Ag Futures contracts enable traders to scale into or out of positions without significantly increasing risk.
Position sizing should be adjusted based on account risk tolerance, ensuring no single trade overly impacts capital.
4. Adjusting for Market Volatility
Monitoring volatility using ATR (Average True Range) or other risk-adjusted indicators helps in adjusting stop-loss placement.
If volatility increases, a wider stop may be needed, but it should still align with a strong reward-to-risk structure.
Proper risk management ensures that trades are executed with discipline, preventing emotional decision-making and maximizing long-term trading consistency.
VI. Conclusion & Disclaimers
Soybean futures are showing bullishness, with ZS, ZL, and ZM aligning in favor of further upside. However, among them, ZM (Soybean Meal Futures) potentially exhibits the most reliable momentum, making it the prime candidate for a high-probability trade setup.
With bullish candlestick patterns, RSI trends confirming momentum, and volume supporting the move, traders have an opportunity to capitalize on this momentum while managing risk effectively using Micro Ag Futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Don’t Buy a Single Dollar of Crypto Without Knowing These 7 RuleHello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts,✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 5 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin 💰.
📊 My Personal Take on Bitcoin’s Current Market Trends:
Since the primary focus of this analysis is educational content, I have deliberately kept the chart simple and easy to understand. The goal is to ensure that you quickly grasp the key insights, particularly the projected minimum decline of 8% 📉 and the primary target of $75,000 for Bitcoin.
Now, let's dive into the educational section, which builds upon last week's lesson (linked in the tags of this analysis). Many of you have been eagerly waiting for this, as I have received multiple messages about it on Telegram.
7 Key Considerations Before Investing in the Crypto Market: 🔍
1️⃣ Only Invest Money You Can Afford to Lose
The most fundamental principle of investing—especially in high-volatility markets like crypto—is to allocate funds that are not essential to your financial well-being. Never invest money that could jeopardize your lifestyle if lost. Adhering to this principle can prevent financial ruin in many cases.
2️⃣ Choose Cryptocurrencies That Meet Essential Criteria
Not all digital assets are worth investing in. Before committing to any coin or token, ensure that it satisfies at least the following factors:
📊 Market Capitalization: The asset should have a reasonable and sustainable market cap.
💰 Liquidity: Sufficient trading volume and liquidity are critical for smooth transactions.
👥 Community Strength: A strong, engaged, and active community is a sign of long-term viability.
🔧 Utility & Innovation: The project should offer a clear use case, technological innovation, and a meaningful solution to real-world problems.
🏆 Credibility & Backing: Look for coins supported by well-known figures, reputable teams, or influential institutions.
3️⃣ Always Set Clear Entry and Exit Strategies
Whether you are in profit or loss, having a well-defined plan for when to enter and exit the market is crucial. Establishing these targets in advance will help you avoid emotional decision-making, such as falling into FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or excessive greed.
4️⃣ Diversify Your Portfolio to Minimize Risk
A well-balanced investment strategy involves spreading your capital across multiple assets rather than concentrating it all in one place. This diversification should include exposure to different sectors and types of cryptocurrencies to mitigate risk.
5️⃣ Altcoins Alone Won’t Make You Successful
While altcoins can offer high returns, they come with increased volatility. A well-structured portfolio should also include Bitcoin and other major market movers to ensure stability and long-term sustainability.
6️⃣ Secure Profits and Reduce Risk Over Time
If you are holding assets for the long term, a risk-free approach would be to withdraw your initial investment once you reach a profitable threshold. Reinvesting those profits into more stable assets—such as real estate 🏡, gold 🏆, or traditional markets—can provide a hedge against crypto volatility while allowing your remaining portfolio to continue growing.
7️⃣ Look for Emerging Opportunities, Not Just Former Market Leaders
Instead of focusing solely on past high-performing assets that may have peaked, keep an eye on new, innovative projects with strong potential. Identifying the next big opportunity before it gains mainstream attention can be a game-changer for your portfolio.
In next week's educational segment, I will explore this last point in greater detail, providing insights on how to effectively spot promising new investments in the ever-evolving crypto landscape. Stay tuned!
However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
If you're diving into crypto, only invest money you can afford to lose—never risk your financial stability. 💸
Pick coins wisely: strong market cap, real liquidity, a solid community, and real-world use. ✅
Spread your investments, set clear entry/exit plans, and take profits—reinvest in stable assets like gold or real estate. 🔄🏡
Avoid FOMO, don’t chase overhyped coins, and always keep an eye on new opportunities. A balanced portfolio is key! 🚨
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
QUICK LOOK AT A FEW INDICATORS AND INTEREST IN A SERIES?Quick overview testing out the upload from a browser on a ethernet connection computer vs wifi with the desktop downloaded app. Do you find value in this and want to make a regular series? Contact me if so and follow. Esp if your a developer and want to add some videos to your products, free, locked or paid. Im game. Platforms, customization and breaking down analytics is the life. Its what i enjoy and maybe you will too!
Thank you All,
DrawDownKing CME_MINI:ES1!
What is Double Top or Double Bottom and how it works?Hello in this educational content we are talking about one of the major reversal pattern in market or maybe even the most important reversal pattern which is exist.
Double Top: Like the pattern mentioned on the chart now double Top is made by two reject from resistance but it is complete when the support or neckline of this two top break and then the pattern is complete and we can say this is a valid double Top and market now can get correction and get bearish.
here is chart & example take a look at Two kinds of Double Top available in my View:
As we can see sometimes price even made fake breakout to the upside or downside of the pattern and in these kinds of situation we can expect more fall if we had Advance Double Top because the liquidity was more at the beginning of second phase rejection.
We also have other Strong Reversal patterns like Head & shoulders and ... which you can mention them in comments or we may have another live post for them in next Educational posts.
most of You know about Regular Double top or Double Bottom and in this Educational post we mention some data about Advance form of it too and also so many know this form as regular form and consider this fake breakout a sign of good double Top and ....
Double Bottom is the same like the Double Top but reverse(This time support can not break two times and price after breaking neckline or resistance start to pump and bear market turn to bullish with Double Bottom).
DISCLAIMER: ((Always trade based on your own decision))-----this post is not signal content or analysis and just Try to talk about an important Reversal pattern with Example which happened also on Bitcoin in previous days in my Opinion.
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Comprehensive Market Analysis Checklist!This checklist is designed to help you perform a thorough analysis of the market to make informed trading decisions. It encompasses a range of technical and fundamental questions that should be considered before entering a trade.
Market Overview and Direction
1. What is the overall direction of the market?
2. What are the directions of various market sectors?
3. What are the weekly and monthly charts showing?
4. Are the major, intermediate, and minor trends moving up, down, or sideways?
5. Where are the important support and resistance levels?
6. Where are the important trendlines or channels?
7. Is volume and open interest confirming the price action?
Technical Pattern Recognition
8. Where are the 33%, 50%, and 66% retracements?
9. Are there any price gaps, and what type are they?
10. Are there any major reversal patterns visible?
11. Are there any continuation patterns visible?
12. What are the price objectives from those patterns?
13. Which direction are the moving averages pointing?
Oscillators and Indicators
14. Are the oscillators overbought or oversold?
15. Are there any divergences apparent on the oscillators?
16. Are contrary opinion numbers showing any extremes?
Advanced Technical Analysis
17. What is the Elliott Wave pattern showing?
18. Are there any obvious 3 or 5 wave patterns?
19. What about Fibonacci retracements or projections?
20. Are there any cycle tops or bottoms due?
21. Is the market showing right or left translation?
Trend Analysis Tools
22. Which way is the computer trend moving: up, down, or sideways?
23. What are the point and figure charts or candlestick patterns showing?
Trade Setup and Risk Management
Once you’ve arrived at a bullish or bearish conclusion, ask yourself the following questions:
1. What is the market’s likely trend over the next several months?
2. Am I going to buy or sell this market?
3. How many units will I trade?
4. How much am I prepared to risk if I’m wrong?
5. What is my profit objective?
6. Where will I enter the market?
7. What type of order will I use?
8. Where will I place my protective stop?
This comprehensive analysis will help you assess the market conditions from all angles and develop a well-thought-out strategy before making any trading decisions.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Reference:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance), p. 455.
Smart Money: Key Zones for Entry and Market RebalancingHello, friends!
Below is my market analysis, where for each key element of the Smart Money concept I use.
1. Premium/Discount zones allow me to quickly identify where capital works most profitably. Using the Fibonacci Correction tool, I find areas that indicate entry opportunities: buying in the discount zone and selling in the premium zone. This helps to form a basic picture of the market balance.
2.OTE helps me find optimal entry points by refining the zones defined by the basic correction. This tool allows me to look at possible entry areas in more detail, making the signals more accurate.
3. When analyzing market movements, I pay attention to FVGs that arise due to a lack of liquidity during impulse movements. Such cavities indicate an imbalance that the market is trying to eliminate, which creates additional opportunities for rebalancing and entering a position.
4.With ImpIMB analysis, I find imbalances where the center candle is significant and its wicks overlap on both sides. This allows me to isolate the zone that signals an aggressive market, giving additional trading clues without revealing all the details.
5.GAP is formed when a cavity appears between the extremes of candles due to a sharp market opening. Using Fibonacci, I outline these areas, because they often become benchmarks for future rebalancing and correction of market dynamics.
Best wishes Mvp_fx_hunter
Double Top Trading Pattern: A Classic Reversal SetupHello, Traders! 👋🏻
Have you ever noticed a market attempting to break through the same resistance level twice, only to fail both times?
This formation is known as the double top pattern and often signals a potential bearish reversal. But is a double top bullish or bearish across all markets? Let’s dive into the meaning of the double top pattern and how to identify it on your charts!
What Is a Double Top? 👀
A double top is a chart formation where the price reaches a high, pulls back, and then rallies again to the same or a very close high but fails to break through. This second failure to surpass the previous peak suggests buyers are losing momentum, paving the way for a potential downtrend.
Key Points of the Double Top Chart Pattern:
Two Prominent Highs: The peaks are usually at similar price levels.
Neckline (Support Level): The interim low between the two peaks forms a support line.
Bearish Sentiment: When the price breaks below the neckline, it confirms a potential trend reversal to the downside.
Is a Double Top Bullish or Bearish?
The double top pattern is bearish because it signals that the uptrend is weakening and sellers are gaining control. After the neckline breaks, it often results in a significant price drop.
Key Features of a Bearish Double Top Pattern
The Two Peaks Are Nearly Equal in Height.
Volume Declines on the Second Peak, Showing Reduced Buying Pressure.
A Breakdown Below the Neckline Confirms the Pattern and Triggers the Downtrend.
Advantages of a Double Top Pattern
Clear Trend Reversal Signal: A double-top chart pattern visually indicates a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend.
Defined Resistance Level for Risk Management: The two peaks at similar price levels create a strong resistance zone. This allows traders to place Stop-Loss orders effectively and set profit targets with more confidence.
Volume Confirmation for Stronger Signals: During a valid double top trading pattern, volume often decreases as the second peak forms and increases when the neckline breaks. This helps confirm the authenticity of the breakout and strengthens trade decisions.
Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio: Because the expected price drop is often equal to the pattern's height, the potential reward is typically larger than the initial risk. This can make the double-top pattern an attractive setup for risk-management-focused traders.
Disadvantages of a Double Top Pattern
Not Always Reliable (False Signals): Like any technical pattern, the double top can fail, leading to false breakouts. Prices may temporarily create two peaks but then continue upward instead of reversing.
Subjectivity in Pattern Recognition: Traders may interpret the double top pattern meaning differently based on variations in peak height, neckline positioning, or symmetry. This subjectivity can lead to inconsistent trade execution.
Variations Across Different Markets: Not all double top chart formations look the same. Some may have uneven peaks, wider time frames, or irregular structures, making setting precise entry and exit points harder.
Limited Profit Potential in Some Cases: While the projected price drop is based on the pattern's height, market conditions may prevent the price from reaching the expected target.
Final Thoughts: Why the Double Top Pattern Matters
The double top chart pattern is a bearish reversal signal that helps traders identify when an uptrend is losing momentum. So, traders, have you ever caught a double top trading pattern before a major price drop? Your experiences and strategies are valuable to the trading community. Share them in the comments and let's learn from each other!
Avoid Market Maker Traps: Liquidity Sweeps & FVG ExplainedUnderstanding Market Maker's Perspective: Liquidity Sweeps and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
In this educational post, I'll dive into the smart money concepts (SMC) that help traders understand market behavior from a broker or market maker's perspective. This analysis will focus on liquidity sweeps, Fair Value Gaps (FVG), and how market makers use these strategies to manipulate price movements.
What is a Liquidity Sweep?
A liquidity sweep occurs when the market pushes through a known level of liquidity, such as stop losses or pending orders. This action often creates sharp wicks or sudden moves, typically engineered by smart money to gather liquidity for their positions.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Explained
An FVG is a price gap between a consecutive bullish and bearish candle (or vice versa), leaving a void in the market. These gaps often act as magnets for price, as market makers seek to "fill" these gaps, using them as traps for retail traders.
The Retail Trader's Perspective
Many new traders view the FVG as a signal to enter the market, expecting price to move in their favor immediately. They often set stop losses below recent lows, providing market makers with a clear liquidity target.
How Market Makers Exploit Liquidity
Market makers often execute a classic trap strategy:
Push the price up slightly to create a false sense of security for retail buyers.
Execute a sharp move down to trigger stop losses and capture liquidity below key levels.
Finally, reverse the price direction sharply to the upside, aligning with their true market intent.
Practical Trading Strategy
For new traders, understanding this concept can help avoid common traps:
Avoid entering trades at the FVG without confirmation.
Look for signs of a liquidity sweep, such as long wicks or strong rejections.
Enter trades only after seeing a market structure shift (MSS) that confirms the true direction.
Conclusion
By thinking like a market maker, traders can align their strategies with smart money concepts, improving their chances of success. Always remain patient, seek confirmation, and avoid the traps set by market manipulation.
This post aims to educate traders on avoiding common pitfalls and developing a more strategic approach to trading using smart money concepts.
Why ATR Stops Work (And When They Don’t)Ask ten traders where to place a stop-loss, and you’ll get ten different answers. Some swear by fixed-point stops, others use percentage-based levels, and then there are those who simply ‘feel’ where the market might turn. But traders looking for a more structured approach often turn to the Average True Range (ATR) —a volatility-based indicator that adapts to market conditions.
ATR stops can be a great tool for trade management, but they’re not perfect. Let’s break down when they work—and when they don’t.
Why Use ATR for Stop-Loss Placement?
ATR measures the average volatility of a market over a set period, usually 14 days. Instead of setting a static stop-loss, traders use a multiple of the ATR to position their exit level. The logic is simple: a more volatile market needs a wider stop, while a quiet market can afford a tighter one.
For example, if the ATR on GBP/USD is 50 pips and you’re using a 2x ATR stop, your stop-loss would be 100 pips away from your entry. In contrast, if volatility drops and ATR shrinks to 30 pips, your stop would adjust to 60 pips.
This approach helps traders avoid getting stopped out by normal market noise while still maintaining a structured risk framework.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
When ATR Stops Work Well
Adapting to Market Conditions
Markets aren’t static. Volatility expands and contracts, and ATR-based stops naturally adjust to these shifts. This makes them particularly useful in trending conditions, where price swings can widen over time.
Avoiding Arbitrary Stop Placement
Instead of guessing where a stop ‘feels right,’ ATR provides an objective framework based on real price movement. This helps remove emotional bias from trade management.
Reducing the Impact of Spikes and Noise
Many traders place stops just below recent lows or above recent highs—prime hunting grounds for liquidity grabs. ATR stops, positioned at a calculated distance, can help avoid these shakeouts.
When ATR Stops Can Fail You
Low Volatility = Tight Stops = Premature Exits
ATR stops rely on recent price action. In quiet markets, ATR contracts, leading to tighter stop placement. This can be problematic when volatility suddenly picks up, as small price swings can take traders out of otherwise good trades.
Doesn’t Consider Market Structure
ATR is purely mathematical—it doesn’t care about support, resistance, or key technical levels. Traders who use ATR stops in isolation may find themselves stopped out just before price respects a critical level.
Choppy Markets Can Whipsaw ATR Stops
In sideways, erratic markets, ATR stops can lead to unnecessary exits. If a market is ranging tightly and ATR is small, stops may be placed too close to entry, leading to multiple stop-outs in quick succession.
One Rule That Can’t Be Broken: Never Widen Your Stop
One of the biggest mistakes traders make—whether using ATR stops or any other method—is moving a stop-loss further away once it’s placed. This usually happens when a trade starts going against them, and instead of accepting the loss, they ‘give it more room to breathe.’
The problem? This completely undermines risk management. A stop-loss should be a pre-determined level that, if hit, signals the trade idea was wrong. Widening it turns a small, manageable loss into a much bigger one—sometimes even wiping out weeks of gains.
If a trade isn’t working and your stop is at risk of being hit, accept it, take the loss, and move on. Adjusting stops should only ever mean tightening them to lock in profits—not loosening them to avoid taking a hit.
How to Improve ATR-Based Stops
ATR stops work best when combined with other trade management techniques:
Use ATR in Conjunction with Market Structure
Rather than blindly placing a stop at 2x ATR, check if your stop aligns with key support or resistance levels. If ATR suggests a stop that sits just below a major level, consider widening it slightly to avoid getting shaken out.
Adjust for Volatility Cycles
If ATR is unusually low due to a period of calm, consider using a longer lookback period (e.g., 21-day ATR) to get a broader view of market volatility.
Pair ATR with a Trailing Stop Strategy
ATR-based trailing stops allow traders to lock in profits as a trend develops while still giving the trade room to breathe. Instead of setting a fixed stop, you can trail a stop at 1.5x ATR below the most recent high in an uptrend.
Final Thoughts
ATR stops provide a structured, volatility-adjusted approach to risk management, helping traders avoid common pitfalls like placing stops too tight in high-volatility markets or too wide in quiet conditions. But like any tool, they’re not foolproof. Used in isolation, ATR can lead to premature exits or misplaced stops.
The best approach? Use ATR as a guideline, not a hard rule. Combine it with market structure, trend analysis, and an understanding of volatility cycles to refine your stop placement. After all, trading is about staying in the game long enough to capitalise on the big moves—without getting chopped up in the noise.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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