Price Action Fluency As A Second LanguageThis is the most important educational video I have shared.
Reading price action is akin to acquiring a second or foreign language. Just as fluency in a new language provides fluency and articulation, mastering price action offers traders a nuanced understanding of market dynamics. One would not expect to learn a new language in a short amount of time. It often takes years while keeping up the practice for the rest of ones life. Price action is no different.
There are literally hundreds of subtleties revealing their secrets to the ones who 𓁼 . Indicators obstructing the view of plain truth is most often a useless distraction. It's not just about recognizing patterns; it's about developing a foundational understanding that allows for intuitive and informed trading decisions.
Building this skill set enables traders to interpret market 'sentiments' and react more adeptly to volatility, much like a fluent speaker picks up on subtle nuances in conversation. Thus, learning to 'speak' the language of price action is essential for anyone serious about trading, as it equips them with the tools to navigate and succeed in the complex world of financial markets.
Chart Patterns
How to Read the MACD Indicator and Use It in Your TradingTechnical analysis is a vast field with thousands of indicators, which may be confusing to those among us who are just starting out. In this Idea, we look at one of the most popular indicators and also one of the easiest ones to fire up and start using from Day 1.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD is arguably the most widely used indicator that can get slapped on virtually every chart out there. The indicator’s full name is Moving Average Convergence Divergence, but you don’t need to remember that.
If you need to take away one thing, it’s this: MACD is easy to read. Here’s how to do it.
Technical Side of Things
Add the MACD in your chart of choice — any chart, any time frame.
You’ll see three default numbers used to set it up — 12, 26, 9.
The 12 is the moving average of the previous 12 bars (also called faster moving average).
The 26 is the moving average of the previous 26 bars (also called slower moving average).
The 9 is the moving average of the difference between the two averages in play.
Next, you see that there are two lines that move up and down and cross each other occasionally. The two lines are:
The MACD line: the difference between the two moving averages and the “faster line”.
The Signal line: the moving average of the MACD line and the “slower line”.
Because the two lines measure price changes at different speeds, the faster one (MACD) will always run ahead and react before the slower one (Signal) catches up.
How to Trade with MACD
If all that sounds a bit complex, here’s the gist of it:
Faster line leads, slower line follows.
Faster line crosses slower line to the downside — a downward trend may be forming.
Faster line crosses slower line to the upside — an upward trend may be forming.
Technically, whenever a new trend is shaping up, the slower line should confirm it by following the faster line. And that happens when the two cross over. The way to potentially spot new trading opportunities is to look for the crossover.
This, in a nutshell, is how to read the MACD indicator and use it to help you become a more profitable trader. There's a whole plethora of MACD examples in action — dive right in !
Let us know your thoughts and experience with the MACD in the comments below!
Fear and Greed Index: Decoding Crypto Market Sentiment!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and emotions can often drive trading decisions. The Fear and Greed Index attempts to quantify these emotions, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment at a given time.
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
The Fear and Greed Index is a composite score ranging from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
It analyzes several data points to arrive at a single value:
Volatility:
Higher price swings indicate greater fear, while lower volatility suggests a calmer market.
Market Momentum:
Rapid price increases point to greed, while sustained price drops signal fear.
Social Media Sentiment:
Analyzing the tone of social media discussions about cryptocurrency can reveal fear or greed.
Survey Data:
Polls and surveys gauging investor sentiment are also factored in.
Dominance:
The market share of Bitcoin (BTC) relative to other cryptocurrencies is considered.
How to Interpret the Fear and Greed Index:
0-24: Extreme Fear: This indicates a potentially oversold market where investors are panicking. It might be a buying opportunity for long-term investors with a high-risk tolerance.
25-49: Fear: The market is cautious, and prices could go either way.
50-74: Greed: Investor sentiment is becoming optimistic, potentially leading to price increases. However, be cautious of entering a potentially overbought market.
75-100: Extreme Greed: Euphoria reigns, and prices could be inflated. This might be a good time to take profits or exercise caution before entering new positions.
Is the Fear and Greed Index Manipulated?
Can people mess with it? Kinda. They might try to fake positive social media stuff to make the index look more greedy than it is. Also, the way the index weighs different things can be tweaked a bit.
But here's the thing: There's a lot of data going into the score, so it's not super easy to manipulate. Plus, everyone knows how it works, so investors can take it with a grain of salt.
The Fear and Greed Index at 47 (Neutral)
With a current score of 47, the Fear and Greed Index suggests a neutral market sentiment. Investors are neither overly fearful nor excessively greedy. This could indicate a period of consolidation or a wait-and-see approach before the market makes its next move.
Remember:
The Fear and Greed Index is just one data point among many. Always conduct your own research and employ a comprehensive trading strategy before making any investment decisions.
Paper Trading Challenge: Which Strategy Did the Best, Winner is The winner has now been decided! In this thrilling paper trading battle, we put four powerful trading strategies to the test: Harmonics Trading Strategy, Sentiment Trading Strategy, RSAI Blueprint Strategy, and Market Structure Strategy.
Throughout this episode, we:
Explained the fundamentals of each strategy.
Demonstrated real-time application of each trading approach.
Tracked and analyzed trades executed by each strategy.
Compared performance metrics including win/loss ratio, average return, and overall profitability.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this video offers valuable insights into the practical application of these popular trading techniques. Watch till the end to see which strategy emerges victorious and to learn tips and tricks you can incorporate into your own trading practice.
🔔 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategy battles and tutorials!
Why you need to have rules in your trading careerHello,
The importance of rules cannot be underestimated in any business. This must not be different in trading/investing since it must be viewed at all times as a business.
Below are my rules as a wave trader. Wave trading is a trading strategy that combines technical analysis with Elliott Wave Theory to identify and predict future market movements. This approach involves analyzing market price patterns to understand the cyclical nature of market trends and capitalize on these patterns for trading opportunities. Below is an example of how markets move in waves
Rules are very important (Our trading rules)
Identify Impulse & Correction
The first step in trading is to identify the impulse and correction phases in the market. An impulse phase is characterized by strong, directional price movement, indicating a clear trend. Corrections, on the other hand, are smaller, counter-trend movements that typically follow an impulse. By recognizing these phases, you can better understand the market's structure and prepare for potential trading opportunities. Below is an example of impulses & corrections identified
Identify the Pattern Formations
Once you have identified the impulse and correction, the next step is to look for specific pattern formations. These patterns, such as head and shoulders, double tops, or triangles, provide clues about future price movements. Understanding and recognizing these formations can significantly enhance your ability to predict market direction and make informed trading decisions. Below are patterns identified that can be tradeable
Most of these patterns can nowadays be identified for you using Tradingview under indicators, metrics & strategies.
Identify Entry Points
After identifying the patterns, the next crucial step is to pinpoint entry points. This involves determining the optimal moment to enter a trade based on your analysis of the market. Entry points should be chosen carefully to maximize potential gains while minimizing risk. Look for confirmations, such as breakouts from patterns or specific technical indicators, to ensure a higher probability of success. Below is an example with a risk free entry
We shall be looking in another post on different types of entries.
Look for Targets
Setting targets is essential for effective trading. Targets help you establish your profit goals for each trade and ensure that you remain disciplined in your approach. These targets can be based on various factors, such as previous support and resistance levels, Fibonacci extensions, or measured moves from the identified patterns. Clear targets allow you to exit trades strategically and lock in profits.
Below is our clear target for the entry we made with a clear stop loss as well
Look for Exits in Case the Trade Doesn't Go Your Way
Not all trades will go as planned, so it's vital to have exit strategies in place for unfavorable scenarios. This involves setting stop-loss levels to limit potential losses and protect your capital. By defining these exits beforehand, you can remove emotional decision-making from your trading process and adhere to a systematic approach, ensuring long-term success and sustainability in your trading business.
I trust that these rules can help you in your trading journey. You can think of having them written somewhere. That way you can look at them & follow them for each trade you make.
All the best
Get EducatedSimple but important levels and concept.
Black Arrow = Resistance
Blue Arrow = Support
there are two parallel lines. the upper parallel line has been acting as both support and resistance shown with arrows. right now this upper trendline is acting as resistance and the next support is the lower trend line which is around 56k-58k, which means price has broken below support and we must fall to the next level of support, which is the lower trend line, so before listening to scammers and crypto moonboys, have a look at these levels. i dont care what you do with them, i just know youll need this info.
Analysing a Wedge Within a WedgeTitle bar: NR7: Harness the Power of Price Compression
Content:
Imagine having a tool in your trading arsenal that can help to predict expansive directional price movement with remarkable accuracy. The NR7 pattern , though often overlooked, offers this very capability. Let's delve into the power of NR7 and how it can applied to real-world trading scenarios.
What is NR7?
NR7 stands for “Narrowest Range 7.” It identifies a session where the trading range (the difference between the highest and lowest prices) is the narrowest compared to the previous seven sessions. This term was introduced by Toby Crabel in his classic book, Day Trading With Short-term Price Patterns and Opening-range Breakout. Crabel's work emphasised statistical relationships between the size of the prior days range and effective conditions for short-term trading, making NR7 a crucial pattern for price action traders.
NR7 Pattern: Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why is NR7 So effective?
The NR7 pattern leverages the cyclical nature of price compression and expansion. Markets often go through periods of low volatility (price compression) followed by high volatility (price expansion). Recognising these cycles can provide traders with significant advantages. Here's why this is important for trading:
Predicting Trend Days: An NR7 condition sets the market up for potential trend days. Following an NR7 day, there is a higher probability that the next session will have a larger than normal range and more directional intraday action. This helps traders anticipate significant moves.
Timing Entries: By identifying periods of price compression, traders can time their entries more effectively. Entering trades as the market transitions from low volatility to high volatility can create trade setups that have attractive levels of risk-to-reward.
The Potential for Multi-Day Expansion
An NR7 pattern doesn't just signal potential moves for the following day; it can also precede multi-day expansions. When a market breaks out of a narrow range, the subsequent move can extend over several days. This provides opportunities not only for intraday traders but also for swing traders looking to capitalize on extended trends.
NR7 Pattern’s Leading to Multi-Day Expansion: Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Combining NR7 with Other Indicators
While effective on its own, the NR7 pattern becomes even more effective when combined with other technical indicators. Here are a few ways to enhance its use:
Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying key support and resistance levels can help set realistic targets and stop-loss levels. A breakout from an NR7 pattern that also clears a significant resistance level can indicate a strong move.
Keltner Channels: Keltner Channels wrap 2.5 ATR’s (average true ranges) around a 20 period exponential moving average (basis). NR7 day’s that form near the basis of the Keltner Channel can often lead to a break into the upper or lower channel.
Compression Patterns: NR7 day’s can often be part of multi-day compression patterns such as bull flags, ascending triangles, and wedge patterns. Always view the NR7 day within the context of the bigger picture pattern.
Momentum Indicators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can help gauge the strength and sustainability of the breakout. If these indicators are in alignment with the breakout direction, it adds another layer of confirmation.
Example: FTSE 100
Before: FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
The FTSE 100 forms two consecutive NR7 daily candles beneath a well-defined area of resistance. Collectively the candles are part of a small ‘bull flag’ pattern which is forming near the basis of the Keltner Channel, and the RSI indicator is holding above 50.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
After: FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
In the days that followed, the FTSE 100 index moved higher – breaking out of the NR7 ranges, the bull flag, and above resistance. The breakout saw the RSI indicator surge above 70 and prices push into the upper Keltner Channel.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
The NR7 pattern is an effective yet simple tool that has the potential to enhance your trading strategy. By recognising periods of price compression and anticipating subsequent expansions, traders can position themselves for potential trend days and multi-day moves. Combining NR7 with other technical indicators can provide additional confirmation and improve the accuracy of your trades.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Continuation Wedge A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Trading Central proprietary pattern recognition technology.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 51 - JPYTHB - (25th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing JPYTHB, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Options Blueprint Series: All-Time High Christmas Tree SpreadIntroduction
As Nasdaq futures continue to show bullish momentum, traders are eyeing the potential for a new all-time high. With market conditions favoring upward movements, leveraging options strategies that maximize upside potential becomes crucial. One such strategy is the Christmas Tree Spread, traditionally used to limit risk while maintaining profit potential. However, in this article, we will explore a modified version where all strikes are Out-Of-The-Money (OTM), creating a setup that profit to the upside no matter how high Nasdaq goes. This approach aligns perfectly with the optimistic outlook for Nasdaq futures and sets the stage for potential gains.
Strategy Overview
The Christmas Tree Spread is a versatile options strategy that can be tailored to suit various market conditions. Traditionally, when using calls, it involves buying one call at a lower strike price and selling three calls at higher strike prices and buying two more calls at even higher strike prices, creating a balanced risk-reward profile. In this modified version, we adjust the strikes to all be Out-Of-The-Money (OTM), enhancing the bullish nature of the strategy.
For this setup, while Nasdaq Futures are trading at 19,982.75, we select the following strike prices for Nasdaq futures options with an expiration date of September 2024:
Buy one 20000 call
Sell three 21500 calls
Buy two 21750 calls
By choosing these strikes, we position ourselves to benefit from any substantial upward movement in Nasdaq futures. All strikes being OTM ensures that the breakeven point is set above the current price, effectively betting on a new all-time high for Nasdaq. This configuration guarantees profit to the upside, regardless of how high Nasdaq futures rise.
Strategy Rationale
The rationale behind selecting an all OTM strike setup for the Christmas Tree Spread lies in the current bullish outlook for Nasdaq futures. As markets exhibit strong upward trends, the potential for Nasdaq to achieve new all-time highs becomes increasingly plausible. This strategy aims to capitalize on such a possible bullish scenario.
Why OTM Strikes?
Lower Cost: OTM options are generally cheaper, reducing the initial cost of setting up the spread.
Increased Profit Potential: Since all strikes are set above the current market price, the profit potential is maximized for any substantial upward movement.
Risk Mitigation: The structure of the spread inherently limits risk, as losses are capped while allowing for upside gains.
Breakeven Point: The breakeven point for this modified Christmas Tree Spread is calculated based on the premiums paid and received for the options. Given the strikes selected (20000, 21500, and 21750), the breakeven point is above the current E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures price (20,465.62), aligning with the expectation of a new all-time high.
Detailed Setup and Example Trade
Setup Details:
Buy one 20000: This is the lower strike option, purchased to gain exposure to significant upside potential.
Sell three 21500 calls: These are the middle strike options, sold to offset the cost of the purchased call and to create a spread.
Buy two 21750 calls: These are the higher strike options, purchased to cap the potential loss from the sold calls and complete the spread.
Premiums Involved: Assuming the following hypothetical premiums:
20000 call: 683.38 points
21500 calls: 145.42 each (436.26 total for three)
21750 calls: 109.25 each (218.5 total for two)
Net Cost:
Total cost of buying calls: 683.38 (20000 call) + 218.5 (21750 calls) = 901.88
Total premium received from selling calls: 436.26 (21500 calls)
Net cost: 901.88 – 436.26 = 465.62
Risk Profile and Reward-to-Risk Ratio:
Maximum Risk: The maximum risk is limited to the net cost of the trade, which is 465.62 points.
Maximum Reward: The maximum reward would take place at 21500 on expiration and is 1034.39 points. The structure ensures 534.39 points of profit as the index potentially climbs higher.
Breakeven Point: The breakeven point is the initial cost added to the lower strike price, which is 20000 + 465.62= 20,465.62.
Trade Scenario: To illustrate, let's consider the potential outcomes at expiration in September 2024:
If Nasdaq is below 20000: All options expire worthless, and the net loss is the initial cost: 465.61 points.
If Nasdaq is at 21500: The 20000 call gains 1500, the 21500 calls expire worthless, and the 21750 calls expire worthless. Net gain = 1500 - initial cost = 1034.39 points.
If Nasdaq is at or above 21750: The 20000 call gains 1500, two of the 21500 calls each lose 250, and the 21750 calls expire worthless. Net gain = $1500 - 750 (total loss from sold calls) – 465.61 (initial cost) = 534.39 points.
Risk Management
Risk management is a crucial aspect of any trading strategy, especially when dealing with options. For the modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy on E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures options, several risk management techniques can be employed to ensure that potential losses are minimized and profits are protected.
Use of Stop-Loss Orders:
Stop-Loss: Implementing stop-loss orders can help limit losses if the market does not move as expected. Setting a stop-loss at a certain percentage below the purchase price can automatically exit the position, reducing the risk of holding losing trades.
Hedging Techniques:
Protective Puts: Purchasing protective puts can provide additional downside protection if the market moves significantly against the position. This can be considered if there are signs of a strong bearish reversal.
Spreading Risk: Diversifying the strike prices or expiration dates can spread the risk and reduce the impact of a single adverse market movement. However, this needs to be balanced with the strategy's intent and market conditions.
Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Capped Risk: The strategy inherently caps risk by buying the 21750 calls, which limits the maximum loss from the sold 21500 calls. Ensuring that all components of the strategy are correctly implemented and monitored helps avoid unexpected risks.
Regular Monitoring: Regularly reviewing the position and market conditions ensures that the strategy remains aligned with the trader’s expectations and risk tolerance. Adjustments can be made as necessary to manage exposure.
By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can enhance the robustness of the modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy, ensuring that potential losses are minimized while maximizing the chances of achieving the desired profit.
Application with Micro E-mini Nasdaq Options
The modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy can also be effectively applied to Micro E-mini Nasdaq futures options. Micro E-mini options offer the same strategic benefits but with smaller contract sizes (10 times less), making them more accessible for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to manage risk more precisely.
Advantages of Using Micro E-mini Options:
Lower Capital Requirement: The smaller contract size of Micro E-mini options means a lower initial cost, making it easier for more traders to participate.
Fine-Tuned Risk Management: Smaller positions allow for more precise control over risk, as traders can scale in and out of positions more easily.
Similar Profit Potential: While the absolute profit may be smaller compared to standard E-mini options, the percentage returns can be similar, providing an effective way to capture upside movements in E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures.
Comparison of Standard E-mini vs. Micro E-mini Options: Standard E-mini options have larger contract sizes and are typically used by traders with more significant capital to invest. In contrast, Micro E-mini options offer smaller contract sizes, making them ideal for traders with smaller accounts or those who prefer to manage risk more precisely. Both options provide the same strategic advantages but cater to different levels of investment and risk management needs.
Using Micro E-mini Nasdaq futures options provides traders with the same strategic advantage of capturing significant upside potential while managing risk effectively, aligning well with the bullish market outlook for E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures.
Conclusion
The modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy offers a robust and flexible approach to capitalizing on the bullish momentum of E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. By strategically placing all strikes Out-Of-The-Money and targeting a new all-time high, this setup ensures profit potential to the upside, no matter how high Nasdaq climbs. With proper risk management and precise execution, traders can maximize their gains while minimizing risks. Whether using standard E-mini options or Micro E-mini options, this strategy provides a powerful tool for navigating the current market conditions and positioning for future growth.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Alt season is just around the corner“The alt season is very close,” just around the corner. This is supported by the Dominance chart for Bitcoin and the Index chart for the dollar... The slowdown that is occurring is nothing but a disruption of the ranks of the weak and those who do not understand the field of currencies... At this moment wealth is created...
history repeats itslf
10 TIPS for trading Bitcoin - What I learned after 6 yearsHere are key points of the way I approach Bitcoin, that I feel are unique and worth mentioning.
1. The vast majority of bitcoins movement is caused by stop loss orders cascading one into the next, and performing pre-determined chain reactions as they are filled. The market is dominated by futures trading; and this has a major effect on the spot price of Bitcoin. A trader using $100 for a long at 100x is leaving in the form of his stop loss; a $10,000 limit sell order that fills ONLY if price crosses over / below. Unique to limit orders that fill automatically if price is at a premium or discount, stop losses stay in tact until price passes them. Retail traders and those placing orders are only crawling the market along until it begins hitting those stop losses. That’s why bitcoin volatility comes at odd times - the reality is, it’s not caused by human engagement. It’s caused by the decisions traders have made in the past.
2. Exchanges and market makers profit off of liquidation fees and interest on leverage. Stop loss placement is protected information for a reason; the exchanges and market markets communicate this information, to allow themselves to benefit and you to commit more money to the market.
3. The Bitcoin chart works on trendlines that cut through - this is often when we see as price consolidation. Bitcoin easily weaves inside and outside of these trendlines due to stop losses sending price to fill the order chains. The invalidations are simply a phenomenon of futures trading prominence. Eventually, one side catches just like a normal trendline - in an abnormal relationship because price is never neatly contained inside or outside - that’s what makes bitcoin prediction so difficult.
4. DXY is still the best predictor of Bitcoin volatility and as to which direction listed in point 3 will execute. Especially when DXY is approaching a major pivot or direction change, Bitcoin reacts very well with moves to liquidate the opposite side before DXY has a lengthy downward or upward movement (Bitcoin generally moves in opposition).
5. Market manipulation is subtle and occurs with consolidation. Price is contained and controlled, by MM placing counter orders to balance the price moving too far into a particular direction. The consolidation periods attract futures positions for their stop loss orders - and that’s the function that makes moving Bitcoin in the favour of the exchanges / MM in a way that benefits them and also in a way that’s legitimate - as it’s in fact caused by traders own choices. The counter balancing / controlled consolidation is a practice that on paper “prevents manipulation” and “increases liquidity to reduce volatility”. Quite clever.
6. Since stop loss orders are limits placed in the chart that don’t fill automatically if price is above or below - we can analyze the open gaps on the chart along with consolidation periods to develop a good sense of the stop loss orders in the chart and where price is likely to move.
7. Stop Loss orders helps us to predict not only direction, but also the speed and distance Bitcoin will move. The more stop losses; the greater the speed of the compounding movement and cascading effects. The longer the consolidation periods, and the larger the gaps are that price has not recovered; the more stop losses are in place. In other words, the movement of Bitcoin is predetermined and thought of like a chain of explosives that are fused together. As soon as that first stop loss triggers, the more exponentially the speed increases as the orders are already in place - and hence why we see many large wicks in Bitcoin.
8. The fiat conversion of Bitcoin is very fluid and not a firm metric for Bitcoins health. Liquidity can move in and out of the balloon of Bitcoin extremely fast. The finite quantity of Bitcoin and its scarcity and quantity, is not relative to the fiat conversion. One bitcoin is one bitcoin - whether it is at $10 or $100,000. The fiat evaluation of Bitcoin is more-so determined by the “online casino” of sorts that takes place inside the container of Bitcoin; giving us a volatile, moving fiat conversion that ultimately is not relative to the value of Bitcoin as it’s own entity - it’s only relative if Bitcoin is converted back into fiat.
9. There are several hard limitations that stock and equities share that Bitcoin does not. Company share values are limited by the anchors they have in the real world - IE employees and wages, product sales, infrastructure, supply / demand. The evaluation of these companies is not nearly as fluid as Bitcoin for these reasons. The companies are directly related and tied to the system of the economy. Bitcoin, on the other hand, does not have these reality anchors that provide floors and ceilings to price movement.
10. There is a degree of human intentionality behind Bitcoins chart and movement. In other words, more so than any other asset, its price projection is planned by human design. The market is funded upon liquidity from retail traders, predominantly in futures markets. The business of exchange leveraging is astronomical, and Market Makers control the great majority of liquidity via their automated systems and order placement services. Join that information with the profit structure and beneficiaries of our liquidations; and we can base a logical conclusion that there is a sole vested interest in the way Bitcoin’s price moves. That is; in favour of liquidating the common Joe and Jane. This allows us a unique advantage to be able to strategize with a business-focused mindset, more so that any other asset class. This is largely due to the lack of regulations and available information with international crypto exchange platforms and Market Makers.
XAUUSD 1H - Consolidations Trading Setups - C.I.R.C. MethodThe chart above showcases various consolidations and their formation dynamics.
Consolidation, Initiation, Retracement, Continuation (CIRC)
Consolidations
What are “consolidations”?
Consolidations, often labeled as “ranges” in mainstream trading, hold a deeper meaning at T.T.T. Here, consolidations are the playgrounds of the BFI, zones where prices oscillate between highs and lows, as illustrated below. Within these confines, intentions simmer as BFI stack orders to propel future price movements. We confidently trade consolidations, fully aware of the intricate dynamics unfolding within the market’s underbelly.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 50 - EURJPY - (21st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
XAUUSD 15M - Consolidations Trading Setups - C.I.R.C. MethodThe chart above showcases various consolidations and their formation dynamics.
Consolidation, Initiation, Retracement, Continuation (CIRC)
Consolidations
What are “consolidations”?
Consolidations, often labeled as “ranges” in mainstream trading, hold a deeper meaning at T.T.T. Here, consolidations are the playgrounds of the BFI, zones where prices oscillate between highs and lows, as illustrated below. Within these confines, intentions simmer as BFI stack orders to propel future price movements. We confidently trade consolidations, fully aware of the intricate dynamics unfolding within the market’s underbelly.