Become a Semi-God in Crypto & knows Market Maker StrategiesHello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts,✌
Spend 2 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 4 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin💰.
Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Bitcoin:
At the current price level, as the market approaches the resistance zone I’ve marked on the chart 📉, I observe that the price action is likely designed to trigger stop-losses and force out sellers 🚫. After this shakeout, I expect the downtrend to resume, with my target set at 78,000.
How to View the Cryptocurrency Market Like an Expert or Market Maker:
The first step is to create a sense of excitement in the market by driving the price upward 📈, fostering the illusion that retail investors will see their investments grow exponentially 💰. This generates a strong influx of capital from inexperienced traders. Continue this upward movement, allowing the market to attract a larger number of participants 👥, further pushing the price higher.
Once the market has drawn in sufficient participants, induce small pullbacks 🔄 to force weaker hands out of their positions. During this phase, you gradually exit your own positions, ensuring that you don’t get caught in the pullback ⚠️. Simultaneously, utilize the influence of the media 📰 to reassure the public, reinforcing the idea that price fluctuations are natural in all financial markets, and these corrections are essential for fueling future growth. After all, a consistent, straight-line upward trend would be more concerning ❗.
Following this minor correction, slightly raise the price again ⬆️, just enough to convince investors that the uptrend is resuming. This will act as confirmation for the public and encourage further capital inflow 💸, amplifying the bullish sentiment.
At this point, orchestrate a more significant market decline 📉, but continue to keep hope alive among the masses 🌟. Stand on the sidelines and watch as panic spreads throughout the market 😱. As fear sets in, many investors will sell their positions at a loss, overwhelmed by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) 😔. This provides a perfect opportunity for you to buy back those assets at a lower price 💡.
After accumulating positions at a discounted price 🛒, once again push the market upward with renewed strength 💪. This cycle can be repeated multiple times 🔄, extracting value from unsuspecting retail traders and driving the price higher each time.
By repeating this process, you establish yourself as a dominant force in the market 🔥—an expert operator who understands the psychology of traders and how to leverage human emotions for profit 🧠. This approach is not unique to the cryptocurrency market; it is a pattern observed across various financial markets 🌍. Each phase of this cycle is intricately tied to human psychology, particularly the emotions of greed 💵, fear 😨, and the irrational behaviors they trigger.
However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Push prices up to create excitement 📈, attracting retail investors 💰. Shake out weak hands with small pullbacks 🔄, then use media 📰 to keep them calm. Let the market crash, then buy at a lower price 💡 before repeating the cycle 🔄. Mastering market psychology 🧠 is the key to dominating crypto and beyond 🌍.
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Chart Patterns
Measured Moves: Understanding Harmonic SimplicityFew tools in trading are forward-looking and adapt to current volatility, Measured Moves do. Unlike traditional indicators, Measured moves offer a structured way to project price targets and turning points with no lag.
Let’s take a deep dive into the harmonic simplicity of the measure move and look at how it can be applied to real-world market conditions.
What Are Measured Moves?
A measured move is a price projection technique that assumes market swings tend to repeat in a proportional manner. By taking the length of a prior move and projecting it forward, traders can identify potential areas where price might react, either as a turning point or a continuation zone. This makes measured moves one of the few truly predictive tools in technical analysis—offering guidance without the lag that comes with moving averages or oscillators.
Beyond their predictive nature, measured moves are inherently adaptive. Markets move through phases of expansion and contraction, meaning fixed-length indicators can become unreliable when volatility shifts. Measured moves, by definition, adjust to the prevailing market conditions, making them particularly effective in dynamic environments.
Example: DXY Daily Candle Charts Measured Move
DXY Daily Candle Charts: Measured Moves
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Timing Profit-Taking with Measured Moves
One of the most effective uses of measured moves is in setting profit targets. In trending markets, traders often struggle with the decision of when to exit—too early and they leave gains on the table, too late and they risk giving back profits. A measured move provides a logical framework for identifying where price may run out of steam.
The process is straightforward: take the length of a completed impulse move and project it from the swing low (in an uptrend) or swing high (in a downtrend) of a subsequent pullback. If price approaches this level and momentum starts to fade, it suggests a natural area for taking profits. This method ensures that you don’t rely solely on intuition or arbitrary levels but instead use market-driven symmetry to guide exits.
Example: FTSE 100 Breakout on Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Entering Two-Legged Pullbacks
Measured moves are also very useful for timing entries in corrective pullbacks—especially in two-legged retracements, which are common in trending markets. Price rarely moves in a straight line; instead, pullbacks often develop in two distinct waves or A,B,C,D pattern before resuming the dominant trend. This pattern can be frustrating for traders who enter too early, only to see price dip lower before the trend continues.
By measuring the size of the first pullback and projecting it forward, traders can anticipate the likely endpoint of the second leg. When price reaches this level and starts to stabilise, it provides a higher-probability entry for traders looking to trade with the trend. This technique works particularly well when combined with broader support or resistance levels, reinforcing key zones where buying or selling pressure may return.
Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Combining Measured Moves with Candle Patterns
Measured moves provide price-based structure, but confirmation from price action can refine entries and exits even further. Candlestick patterns help traders gauge sentiment at key measured move levels, offering a layer of confirmation before taking action.
For profit-taking, if price reaches a measured move projection and forms a reversal pattern—such as a shooting star in an uptrend or a hammer in a downtrend—it strengthens the case for locking in gains. Conversely, for entries, a two-legged pullback that completes at a measured move level becomes even more compelling when a bullish engulfing pattern or pin bar forms, signalling potential trend continuation.
By combining measured moves with candlestick confirmation, you avoid acting on rigid projections alone. Instead, you can use price action cues to validate measured move levels, improving decision-making and reducing false signals.
Summary:
Measured moves provide a structured, adaptable approach to navigating price action. Whether used for profit-taking or timing pullback entries, their ability to adjust to volatility and offer forward-looking projections makes them a valuable tool in a trader’s arsenal. When combined with candlestick patterns, they become even more effective, offering both precision and confirmation in a market that thrives on uncertainty.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Learn How to Trade Cup and Handle Pattern on Forex & Gold
If you are studying a price action, you should definitely know how to identify and trade Cup and Handle pattern formation.
Being applied properly, it can generate big profits.
In this educational article, I will teach you how to identify this pattern. We will discuss its psychology and I will share with you 2 trading strategies.
📏And let's start with the structure of the pattern.
The pattern has 3 important elements:
Cup - long-term correctional movement that tends to move steadily from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
Handle - short-term correctional movement with signs of bullish strength.
Neckline - upper horizontal boundary of the pattern - a strong resistance that the price constantly respects.
⚠️Being formed, it warns you about a highly probable coming bullish movement.
The trigger that confirms the initiation of a bullish wave is a breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
Here is the example of a completed C&H with a confirmed neckline breakout, indicating a highly probably coming bullish movement.
Depending on the preceding price action, Cup & Handle Pattern can either be a trend-following or reversal pattern.
📉If the pattern is formed after a bearish impulse. It is considered to be a reversal pattern.
Here is the example of a reversal C&H that I spotted on EURUSD.
📈If the pattern is formed at the top of a bullish impulse , it is considered to be a trend following pattern.
Here is the example of a trend following C&H that I spotted on GBPJPY.
The thing is that while the price forms the C&H, buying volumes are accumulating. Even though, buyers are hesitant and reluctant initially, their confidence grows, and the accumulation leads to explosive neckline breakout.
There are 2 strategies to trade this pattern.
✔️ Strategy 1.
That approach is quite risky , but the reward can be quite substantial.
You should monitor the price action when the price is creating a handle. Occasionally, the price starts trading in a falling channel: parallel or contracting one.
Your trigger will be a bullish breakout of its resistance and a candle close above.
Once the violation is confirmed, you can buy aggressively or set a buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the channel.
Target will be the closest key resistance.
Here is the example of the handle being a falling channel.
✔️ Strategy 2.
Wait for a breakout of a neckline of the pattern.
Once a candle closes above that, it will confirm the violation.
Buy the market aggressively or set a buy limit on a retest of a broken neckline then.
Stop loss will lie below the lows of the handle.
Target will be the closest key resistance.
Here is the example of the trade based on a confirmed breakout of a neckline of C&P on NASDAQ Index.
Applied properly, the strategies may reach up to 70% win rate.
As always, the best pattern will be the one that forms on a key level.
Try it, test it, and good luck in your trading journey.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The Three Black Crows Pattern: Trading PrinciplesThe Three Black Crows Pattern: Trading Principles
Various candlestick and chart patterns indicate potential market reversals. One such formation is the three black crows pattern that indicates a potential bearish reversal in the price of an asset. You can find three black crows stock, commodity, and forex patterns. This FXOpen article will help you understand how such a pattern is formed, explaining how it can be used to spot trading opportunities in the market and demonstrating live trading examples.
What Are the Three Black Crows?
The three black crows is a bearish candlestick pattern used in technical analysis to signal a potential reversal of an uptrend. It consists of three consecutive long bearish candlesticks that occur after a strong upward trend. The pattern suggests that the momentum has shifted from buyers to sellers, indicating that a downtrend could be about to begin.
Key Characteristics:
- Three Consecutive Bearish Candles: The pattern is composed of three long bearish candlesticks that open within the body of the previous candle and close near their lows.
- Appears After an Uptrend: The pattern typically forms after a prolonged uptrend, signalling a potential shift in market sentiment.
- Declining Price with Minimal Wicks: The candles should ideally have small upper and lower wicks, showing that the sellers controlled the market throughout the session.
- Steady Decline: Each candlestick in the pattern opens higher than the previous candle’s close but then reverses to close lower.
Psychological Interpretation
The pattern reflects a growing bearish sentiment among traders. Each successive bearish candlestick suggests that sellers are taking over, and buying pressure is weakening. This gradual increase in selling activity is often interpreted as a sign that the market could be heading for a downturn.
How Can You Trade the Three Black Crows Chart Pattern?
The three black crows formation has general trading rules. They can be modified depending on the timeframe, market volatility, and risk tolerance.
Entry
Once the formation is confirmed with the third long red candle and additional indicators, traders enter a short position below its low.
Take Profit
The pattern doesn’t provide specific take-profit targets. Usually, traders use other technical indicators and strong support levels to determine a suitable take-profit point. Some traders set the take-profit order with regard to the risk-reward ratio, say 1:2 or 1:3.
Stop Loss
The theory states that a stop-loss order can be placed above the first candlestick’s high to potentially limit losses. Moreover, it should be based on the trader's risk tolerance and trading approach.
Live Market Example
The above example shows the formation of the three black crows’ pattern on a weekly chart of the EUR/USD pair. When the pattern formed, the relative strength index had just left the overbought zone, confirming a potential trend reversal. A trader could go short after the third long bearish candle at 1.42550 and place a stop loss near above the first pattern’s candle (at 1.51763). The profit target could be set at the next important support level of 1.23378. It took six months for the price to reach the target level.
Practical Trading Strategies Using the Three Black Crows Pattern
Now, let’s look at two specific 3 black crows trading strategies.
MACD Strategy
The combination of the three black crows candlestick pattern and the MACD crossover offers traders a strong signal of a bearish reversal after a bullish movement. The three black crows formation suggests weakening bullish momentum, while the MACD crossover confirms the shift in momentum from buyers to sellers. Together, these indicators increase the likelihood of a sustained downtrend, offering an opportunity for traders to enter the market with greater confidence.
Entry
- Traders observe a bearish MACD crossover within a few candles of the three black crows, either just before, during, or just after.
- Both conditions (pattern completion and MACD crossover) are typically met by the close of the third candle, signalling a potential opportunity for a sell trade.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses might be placed just beyond the swing point before the three black crows pattern to potentially protect against false signals.
Take Profit
- Traders often set take-profit targets at a risk-reward ratio, such as 1:2 or 1:3, to lock in potential returns.
- Alternatively, profits might be taken at key support levels where the price may reverse.
- Another option might be to exit the trade upon observing a bullish MACD crossover, signalling the end of the downtrend.
HMA Strategy
Using two hull moving averages (HMA), one set to 20 and the other to 50, provides traders with an extra filter to confirm that a downtrend is beginning following the three black crows pattern. The three black crows indicate a potential bearish reversal, but a cross of the 20-period HMA below the 50-period HMA helps confirm the strength of the downtrend. HMAs are used as they are more responsive to trend shifts than other moving averages.
Entry
- Traders look for a bearish crossover where the 20 HMA crosses below the 50 HMA within a few candles of the three black crows.
- Both the pattern and the HMA crossover typically confirm the start of a downtrend, allowing traders to enter a short position.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses might be set just above the swing high before the pattern.
- Alternatively, they might be placed above one of the HMAs, depending on the trader’s risk tolerance and desired level of protection.
Take Profit
- Take-profit targets might be based on a risk-reward ratio, such as 1:2 or 1:3.
- Traders may also take profits at a known support level where price reversal is likely.
- Another potential exit point is when the HMAs cross over again, signalling the end of the trend.
Three Black Crows vs Three White Soldiers
The three white soldiers candlestick pattern is the opposite of the three black crows. It is a bullish reversal setup that traders commonly use to identify the potential end of a prior downtrend and the start of an uptrend. It consists of three consecutive long bullish candlesticks with highs and lows higher than the previous ones and with little or no wicks. It suggests that the buyers have taken control of the market and that the price will likely continue rising. The candles together create a formation that resembles three soldiers marching in a bullish direction.
This formation is usually considered a strong bullish signal when it appears after a prolonged downtrend, in contrast to the three black crows formation, which indicates a strong potential bearish reversal. Traders often use it as an indication to enter long positions, with a stop-loss order placed near the bottom of the pattern.
Confirmation Tools
Confirmation tools can help traders ensure that the 3 black crows candlestick pattern signals a true bearish reversal rather than a short-term pullback. Here are some key tools to consider when confirming the pattern:
- Volume Increase: A spike in selling volume during the formation of the three black crows can confirm heightened pressure and a stronger likelihood of a trend reversal.
- Momentum Indicators: Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, or a Stochastic Oscillator can show a shift in momentum. An overbought RSI, a bearish MACD crossover, or bearish Stochastic divergence may reinforce the bearish signal.
- Support Level Break: Watch for a break below a key support level after the three black crows form. This can further validate the downtrend, indicating that sellers are gaining control.
- Bearish Candlestick Patterns: Additional bearish patterns, such as engulfing or dark cloud cover, emerging after the three black crows, can reinforce the likelihood of a sustained downtrend.
- Moving Averages: A cross of a short-term MA below a long-term MA can offer further confirmation of a bearish reversal.
Common Mistakes When Trading the Three Black Crows Pattern
In 3 black crows trading, it's common to make several mistakes that may lead to poor results or false signals. Here are key pitfalls to watch out for:
- Ignoring Volume: Failing to check for a rise in volume during the formation of the three black crows can lead to misinterpreting the pattern. Low volume may indicate weak selling pressure and an unreliable signal.
- Trading Without Confirmation: Jumping into a trade as soon as the pattern forms without using additional confirmation tools like momentum indicators or support breaks can increase the risk of a false reversal.
- Overlooking Market Context: The three crows candlestick pattern works in specific conditions. If the pattern appears in a sideways or range-bound market, it may not signal a true trend reversal, leading to misinterpretation.
- Setting Tight Stop-Losses: Placing stop-loss orders too close to the first candlestick’s high can result in early exit due to market noise. Proper risk management with room for fluctuations is essential.
- Neglecting Trend Strength: Ignoring the strength of the prior uptrend may lead to premature trades. The pattern is believed to be the most effective after a prolonged uptrend; using it in weak trends can result in false signals.
Final Thoughts
The three black crows pattern is a powerful bearish reversal signal that can help traders identify potential downtrends after a sustained uptrend. By understanding its formation, confirming the pattern with additional technical indicators, and implementing sound risk management strategies, traders can incorporate this pattern into their trading plans. However, as with any trading strategy, patience and proper confirmation are key to avoiding false signals.
Once you have practised identifying the black crows, consider opening an FXOpen account to start your trading journey!
FAQ
What Do 3 Black Crows Mean in Trading?
The 3 black crows’ meaning refers to a candlestick pattern signalling a bearish reversal. It consists of three consecutive long bearish candlesticks following an uptrend, indicating that sellers are taking control of the market. This pattern suggests a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish, meaning the price is likely to decline further as selling pressure increases.
What Do Three Black Crows Indicate?
The 3 black crows’ candlestick formation, after a prolonged uptrend, indicates a potential downside reversal. It means that sellers are taking control, and the price will likely trade downwards.
What Is the Success Rate of the 3 Black Crows?
The success rate of the three black crows pattern varies depending on market conditions, timeframe, and confirmation tools used. While it is generally considered a reliable bearish reversal signal, traders often use volume, momentum indicators, and support level breaks to confirm the pattern and improve success rates.
What Is the Meaning of Identical Three Crows?
The identical three crows is a variation of the traditional pattern. In this case, the three bearish candles open at the close of the previous candlestick, showing even stronger bearish pressure. This variation suggests that sellers are overwhelming buyers consistently, signalling an even more pronounced reversal.
How Do You Trade Three Black Crows?
To trade the 3 black crows pattern, traders wait for confirmation of a bearish reversal after the three consecutive down candles in an uptrend. They enter a short position once the pattern is completed and confirmed by additional indicators like increased volume or a break below support. They may place a stop-loss order above the high of the first candle and target key support levels below for profit-taking. Traders always manage risk carefully by using stop-losses and monitoring market conditions.
Are Three Black Crows Bullish?
No, the three black crows pattern is not bullish; it is a bearish candlestick pattern. It signals a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, indicating that selling pressure is starting to overwhelm buying pressure.
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Master Your Emotions: The 3 Trading Psychology Hacks Most traders don’t struggle because they lack a strategy—they struggle because emotions get in the way. After coaching hundreds of traders, I’ve seen the same patterns over and over: hesitation, FOMO, revenge trading, and self-doubt.
I get it. I’ve been there too. You see the perfect setup but hesitate. Or worse, you jump in too late and watch the market turn against you. It’s frustrating, but there’s a fix.
In this video, I’m breaking down the biggest trading psychology mistake I see and the simple 3-step process that has helped my students trade with confidence, even in the most volatile markets.
If you’ve ever felt like your emotions are sabotaging your trades, this is for you. Let’s fix it.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
A Trader’s Guide to ABCD PatternsIntroduction to ABCD Patterns
The ABCD pattern is a tool in technical analysis that measures up and down moves within a trend. It consists of three consecutive price swings, forming a very specific shape as shown on the chart above. Note that the dark solid line on the chart above is the ABCD pattern while the dotted lines are retracement measurements. The ABCD pattern is valuable because it reflects the rhythmic and cyclical nature of market movements. While it may support such a nature, please note that past performance is not always indicative of future results.
The ABCD pattern is often used as a way to map out existing and potential price movements. This pattern is composed of four key points: A, B, C, and D. From point A to B, a new prevailing trend begins. The market then retraces from point B to point C, followed by a resumption of the initial trend from C to D. This sequence can help traders draw and see the movements within a trend.
One of the strengths of the ABCD pattern is its versatility. It can appear in both bullish and bearish forms, making it applicable across various markets, including forex like the FOREXCOM:EURUSD and other symbols. Additionally, it can be used in different market conditions, such as range-bound markets, uptrends, and downtrends, and across various timeframes, from intraday to long-term charts.
Typically, the tool is used to measure the retracements between each move. The dotted lines on the chart indicate the size of the retracement compared to where the previous trend began. This makes it easy to see where the ABCD pattern is finding its bottom (or top) within the trend. By analyzing these retracements, traders can gauge the strength of the trend and identify potential entry and exit points.
The key takeaway from the ABCD pattern is that it is a tool used to draw, measure, and see price movements within a trend. Imagine the market as a roller coaster ride with four key points: A, B, C, and D. At point A, the excitement kicks off with a fresh, dominant trend. As the ride progresses, it dips to point B, offering a brief pause. But hold on tight, because at point C, the initial trend roars back to life. Finally, traders eagerly anticipate the next twist at point D. This dynamic sequence allows traders to map out and visualize the market's journey.
Did you learn something new?
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Thanks for reading!
The FOREX.com team
Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E).
This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend.
Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure
Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines.
In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market.
The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios
In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Euro FX Futures (6E) details:
Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €125,000
Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract.
Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details:
Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract.
M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes.
Execution and Trade Management
Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move.
If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan.
Conclusion
Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex🔍 Bullish & Bearish Reversal Divergence Trading in Forex: A Detailed Overview
Divergence is a powerful concept in technical analysis — it helps spot potential trend reversals and momentum shifts. Let’s dive into the details with clear strategies and some visual flair! 🚀
🧠 What is Divergence?
Divergence happens when price action and a technical indicator (like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic) move in opposite directions. This hints that the current trend is losing strength and a possible reversal is coming.
📈 Types of Divergence
🐂 Bullish Reversal Divergence (Buy Signal)
Price: Makes lower lows ⬇️
Indicator: Makes higher lows ⬆️
Meaning: Sellers are losing momentum; buyers might take over soon.
Signal: Potential uptrend reversal ahead.
🔑 Key Confirmation Tools:
Support zone bounce 🛑
Bullish candlestick patterns (Hammer, Engulfing) 🕯️
Increased buying volume 📊
💡 Example Setup:
RSI makes a higher low while price drops lower — prepare for a long (buy) position.
🐻 Bearish Reversal Divergence (Sell Signal)
Price: Makes higher highs ⬆️
Indicator: Makes lower highs ⬇️
Meaning: Buyers are losing strength; sellers could take control.
Signal: Potential downtrend reversal ahead.
🔑 Key Confirmation Tools:
Resistance zone rejection 🚧
Bearish candlestick patterns (Shooting Star, Engulfing) 🌑
Increased selling volume 📉
💡 Example Setup:
MACD makes a lower high while price pushes higher — prepare for a short (sell) position.
🛠️ Best Indicators for Divergence Trading
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Tracks overbought/oversold conditions. 📊
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Measures momentum shifts. 💥
Stochastic Oscillator – Identifies trend strength and reversals. 🎢
🎯 Divergence Trading Strategies
1️⃣ Classic Divergence Strategy
Spot bullish or bearish divergence. 🔍
Confirm with support/resistance levels. 🧱
Wait for a reversal candlestick pattern (like a Doji, Engulfing, or Pin Bar). 🕯️
Enter trade with a tight stop loss below support (for buys) or above resistance (for sells). 🎯
2️⃣ Divergence + Trendline Break Strategy
Draw a trendline following the current trend. 📐
Spot divergence as the trend loses strength. 🚨
Wait for a trendline breakout for extra confirmation. 💥
Enter trade on the break and retest of the trendline. 💯
3️⃣ Divergence + Moving Average Strategy
Spot divergence between price and indicator. 📉
Use a moving average (MA) like the 50 EMA or 200 EMA to confirm the trend shift. 📈
Buy when price crosses above the MA after bullish divergence. 💚
Sell when price crosses below the MA after bearish divergence. ❤️
⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid
🚫 Ignoring confirmation: Always wait for candle closes or breakouts.
🚫 Forcing divergence: Only trade when divergence is clear.
🚫 Skipping risk management: Use a stop loss and position sizing.
🚫 Overtrading small timeframes: Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) offer more reliable signals.
THE FEAR IS REAL. MAKE USE OF IT FOR THE LONG TERM!Disclaimer: The following article is not investment advice. It is solely prepared for educational purposes, specifically regarding the Indian markets and aimed at people interested in long-term investments. The numbers mentioned reflect the data available at the time of writing.
Hello people,
We are witnessing significant movements in the Indian markets, with news of small-cap stocks entering a ‘bear market’, mid-caps falling nearly 16%, and the major index, NIFTY 50, down about 11% since September. This has led to a decline in SIPs (by 109%) and raised questions about the resilience of common Indian equity investors. SMID stocks have performed the worst since the Covid crash, and various narratives are circulating, such as ‘BUY THE DIPS’ and others equally discouraging equity investment altogether.
Regardless of these narratives, it is evident that during substantial declines or bear markets, even fundamentally strong stocks—those suitable for long-term investments—can be purchased at discounted prices. These are the stocks widely considered the right choice and can be made use of for this phase of the market according to proficient professionals. The question remains: which are they?
This article highlights a few of these stocks based on my analysis. I share them to raise awareness, especially for those looking for such opportunities, but I am NOT advising you to buy them. What makes this content relevant is that it comes from someone who has been monitoring the market out of initiative, from a genuine interest over the past 3-4 years. So let's begin.
My top pick stock ticking all the boxes is Mahanagar Gas . It has impressive financials and is a fundamentally strong mid-cap company. It's both a value stock and a good growth stock (two common investing styles are value investing and growth-based investing). The stock's P/E ratio is 12.6, indicating it might be undervalued. The current price is ₹1,343, and the intrinsic value (according to Screener) is ₹1,479. As a mid-cap stock, it holds significant growth potential with a medium risk level—lower than that of small caps. It’s currently priced at a 31% discount.
Next I see Indus towers . Again good fundamentally, making it a good pick for long-term investors. As a large-cap stock, its growth potential is less than mid or small caps, but it’s still solid and carries lower risk of all. Its P/E ratio is 9.18, indicating potential undervaluation. However, one downside is that although its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.75 (which is good), its enterprise value exceeds the market cap, possibly suggesting high debt or overvaluation (which I doubt). Additionally, promoter holdings have decreased by 3% in the last quarter.
Among the other options are Godawari Power and Andhra Petrochemicals . Godawari Power is a solid mid-cap stock, with one exception: its 10-year sales growth or compounded revenue growth does not exceed 10% over the last 10 years, a key criterion for long-term investments. However, its 7-year sales growth surpasses 10%, which is positive. With a P/E ratio of 14.5 and a 31% discount from its previous high, it seems undervalued and carries medium risk, with the potential for high growth.
Last option is Andhra petrochemicals which unlike the others on this list, is a small-cap stock, making it suitable for those with a high-risk appetite. It has strong fundamentals and meets all the criteria required for long-term investment. The current price of ₹58.7 is below its book value of ₹64.8, and the intrinsic value is ₹154, indicating an attractive investment. It’s also interesting to note that when the price-to-book ratio is below 1 (P/BV < 1), it’s often considered an amazing deal .But again, this is a small-cap stock, so proceed with caution.
Criteria Used
All the stocks listed here have passed my evaluation based on four key areas required for a growing business: profitability, liquidity, leverage, and operational efficiency. Other factors considered include undervaluation, debt-to-equity ratio, and so on.
Going forward, I am aware that there is a possibility of the markets falling further, which cannot be ignored. The narrative around March 20th and its significance in the market cycle is still present, and I would encourage caution. For those hesitant to invest now, I suggest keeping an eye on the charts. Wait for a solid bullish signal to appear, and confirm it with USOIL and USDINR charts. These are crucial for concluding about the trend of our markets.
Additionally, perform a reality check on your investments: assess where your money is allocated, determine reasonable conservative targets, and evaluate the time frame for returns, apart from the projections made by portfolio managers and fund managers and their years of experiences too. Stats such as NIFTY MIDCAP 100 index giving negative returns from 2008 to 2014, is evident by directly observing the charts itself.
I hope this information was valuable to you. Don't lose faith in the markets. Happy investing!
“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffet
Harsh Truth About Forex & Gold Trading: In Books VS In Reality
Most traders start their trading journey by studying theory first, reading books or taking video courses before putting these newfound skills into practice. But once they start trading on a real market, they quickly realize that things are not as straightforward as the books make them out to be.
In this educational article, we will take a critical look at the difference between theoretical knowledge and practical experience.
📍And first of all, do not get me wrong. I am not trying to imply that trading books or courses are bad.
Theoretical knowledge is essential for successful trading, and of course the books are the best source of that.
The problem is, however, that books can be misleading . The examples in books are always tailored. When the authors are looking for the examples of the patterns, of key levels, they are looking for the ideal cases.
📍The problem becomes even worse, when one start studying the trade examples in books. And of course, the authors choose the brilliant winning trades with huge take profits and tiny stop losses.
I guess you saw these pictures of "sniper" entry trades with 5/1 R/R.
The inexperienced trader may start thinking that the markets are perfect and act in total accordance with the books.
That all the trades that he will take will bring tremendous profits.
That the identified patterns will work exactly as it was described.
📍The harsh truth is that books and courses are simply the compositions of different examples, cases and market situations.
In reality, each and every trading setup is unique .
The reaction of the price to the same pattern will be always different .
Please, realize the fact that books are only good for acquiring the knowledge. But in order to survive on financial markets, you need the experience . And the experience will be gained only after studying thousands of real market examples in real time.
📍Here is the example of a double top pattern that we were trading with my students on AUDJPY.
In books, double tops are always perfect . Once the market breaks the neckline, the price retests that and then quickly drops.
So the one can set a tiny stop loss and a big take profit.
However, after a retest of a broken neckline, AUDJPY bounced and the market maker was stop hunting the newbies. Our stop loss was way above the head, and we managed to survive.
Even though the pattern triggered a bearish movement, the reaction of the market was far from perfect.
Be prepared, that the market will much different from what you see in the books.
Good luck to you!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Shooting Star Pattern: Meaning and Trading RulesShooting Star Pattern: Meaning and Trading Rules
In the fast-paced world of trading, recognising key chart patterns is crucial for informed decision-making. One pattern that traders often look for is the shooting star trading pattern. This article will delve into what a shooting star pattern is, how to spot it on a chart, its associated trading strategies, and its distinctions from similar patterns.
What Is a Shooting Star?
A shooting star in trading is a bearish candlestick pattern that can signify a potential reversal of an uptrend. It consists of a single candlestick with the following characteristics:
- A small body that is located at the lower end of the candlestick.
- A long upper shadow that is at least twice the length of the candle's body.
- A short or nonexistent lower shadow.
The appearance of the setup suggests that the price opened near its low and rallied significantly during the trading session but ultimately closed near its opening price. This pattern indicates sellers regained control after a brief period of bullishness.
While the formation is considered more probable when it closes red, it’s possible to see a green shooting star. A green shooting star candlestick simply indicates that sellers weren’t able to push the price down quite as aggressively.
How Can You Trade the Shooting Star?
The shooting star trading strategy involves the following key points:
- Entry: After identifying the candle in the strong uptrend, consider entering a short position. To validate the pattern, you may wait for the next one or two candles to close below the shooting star.
- Take Profit: Although candlestick patterns don’t provide specific entry and exit points, you can use common technical analysis techniques. For example, you may set a take-profit level based on the support level, Fibonacci retracement level, or nearest swing lows.
- Stop Loss: You may want to protect your position with a stop-loss order. This is usually placed above the high price of the shooting star. This helps potentially limit losses if the pattern doesn't lead to a reversal.
Let's consider a live market example of a shooting star in the stock market to illustrate the concept. A trader analyses the Meta stock chart and spots a shooting star stock pattern after an extended uptrend. They wait for confirmation, i.e. for the next bar to close lower. Upon confirmation, they decide to enter a short trade, setting their take-profit target at a significant support level and placing a stop loss above the formation’s high.
How Traders Confirm the Shooting Star Signals
Confirming the shooting star pattern's reliability involves a multifaceted approach, adding robustness to your trading decisions. Traders look beyond the candlestick itself, integrating various technical analysis tools to validate signals.
Key confirmation methods include:
- Volume Analysis: A high trading volume accompanying the shooting star candlestick pattern can strengthen the signal, indicating that the reversal is supported by significant market participation.
- Subsequent Candles: Observing the next few candles for bearish confirmation is essential. A strong bearish candle following the shooting star suggests that sellers are gaining momentum.
- Technical Indicators: Indicators can offer confirmatory signals, particularly momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator. A moving average crossover can also add confluence.
- Support and Resistance Levels: The proximity of the shooting star to established resistance levels enhances its significance. A shooting star forming near a resistance zone often signals a strong reversal point.
- Above Swing High/Low: A shooting star pattern that breaks into the area just above a key high or low before reversing can signal a stop hunt/liquidity grab.
- Contextual Analysis: The broader market context, such as prevailing trends and economic news, can influence the pattern's effectiveness. Aligning the shooting star with broader market sentiment increases the pattern’s reliability.
Shooting Star and Other Candlestick Formations
Let's compare the shooting star with other patterns with which it is often confused.
Shooting Star vs Inverted Hammer
The shooting star and inverted hammer look similar – they have small bodies and long upper shadows. However, they differ in their implications. The former is a bearish reversal pattern found in uptrends, while the latter is a bullish reversal formation seen in downtrends.
Shooting Star vs Evening Star
Both formations signal an uptrend reversal; however, the shooting star is a single-candle setup, whereas the evening star consists of three candles, including a large bullish candle, a small-bodied candle, and a large bearish candle.
Shooting Star vs Gravestone Doji
The shooting star and gravestone doji are both bearish reversal patterns. The shooting star features a small body at the lower end of the candlestick with a long upper shadow, signifying a failed rally.
In contrast, the gravestone doji has no or a tiny real body, as the open and close prices are identical or nearly identical, with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow. The gravestone doji suggests strong indecision in the market, with buyers initially driving prices up but ultimately failing to maintain that momentum, which often signals a sharp reversal.
Shooting Star vs Hanging Man
The shooting star and hanging man also share similarities but differ in appearance and market positioning. The shooting star is a bearish pattern occurring after an uptrend, indicating a potential reversal as bears managed to pull the price down at the end of a trading session.
Conversely, the hanging man appears at the top of an uptrend as well but has a small body at the upper end and a long lower shadow, reflecting that sellers were able to push the price down significantly before buyers pulled it back up. The hanging man suggests that selling pressure is starting to outweigh buying interest.
Advantages and Limitations
This formation offers traders valuable insights, but it comes with its own set of advantages and limitations. Understanding these can help traders use the pattern more effectively within their strategies.
Advantages
- Early Reversal Signal: It provides an early indication of a potential trend reversal, allowing traders to prepare for or act on a change in market direction.
- Simplicity: The pattern is straightforward to identify, even for less experienced traders, making it an accessible tool for technical analysis.
- Versatility: It can be applied across various markets and timeframes, with traders often spotting the shooting star in forex, stock, and commodity markets as well as across both short-term and long-term charts.
Limitations
- False Signals: The pattern alone is not always reliable and can generate false signals, especially in volatile markets or when not used with other confirmation tools.
- Lack of Precision: It does not provide exact entry or exit points, requiring traders to rely on additional indicators or analysis to determine these.
- Dependency on Context: The effectiveness of the formation is highly dependent on the broader market context and trend strength, limiting its standalone use.
Final Thoughts
Understanding chart patterns like the shooting star is essential for making informed decisions in trading. Remember that while this formation can provide valuable insights, it is more effective in conjunction with other tools for signal confirmation. As a trader, staying informed about market developments and continuously honing your skills could be a key to effective trading in the dynamic trading environment. Open an FXOpen account today to trade in over 600 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips.
FAQ
Can Candlestick Patterns Be Time-Sensitive?
Yes, candlestick patterns vary depending on the timeframe. A shooting star on a 1-minute chart provides short-term signals, while a shooting star on a daily chart may signal a longer-term reversal. However, the choice of timeframe goes hand in hand with your market strategy and goals.
How to Improve Candlestick Pattern Recognition Skills?
Improving your candlestick pattern recognition skills requires practice and study. You can analyse historical charts, use trading simulators, read educational materials like those at FXOpen, and engage with experienced traders to gain insights and practical experience.
Why Are Candlestick Patterns Important in Trading?
Candlesticks visually represent price action and help traders identify potential trend reversals, continuations, and key support and resistance levels. They are valuable tools for technical analysis.
What Is the Meaning of a Shooting Star Pattern?
The shooting star pattern is a bearish reversal candlestick that forms after an uptrend. It signals a potential shift in market sentiment, where buyers initially drive the price higher, but sellers take over, pushing the price back down near its opening level.
Is a Shooting Star Candlestick Bullish?
No, a bullish shooting star does not exist. It is a bearish pattern, indicating that an uptrend may be losing momentum and that a reversal to the downside could be imminent. A similar bullish formation is the inverted hammer.
Is a Shooting Star a Doji?
A shooting star is not a doji. While both patterns can signal reversals, a doji has nearly identical opening and closing prices with no significant body, reflecting indecision, whereas a shooting star has a small body with a long upper shadow, indicating a failed rally.
How Can You Trade a Shooting Star Candle?
Trading this candle involves looking for confirmation of the reversal, such as a bearish candle following the pattern. Traders often set stop-loss orders above the shooting star's high and target profit levels near key support zones or previous lows.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Diamond Pattern Trading: How to Spot and Trade This SignalSome patterns scream for attention, while others sneak up on traders who aren’t looking closely. The diamond pattern is one of those sneaky ones—a formation that hints at a brewing reversal but requires a sharp eye to catch. Let’s dive into what this pattern looks like, how it forms, and the best strategies for effectively trading diamond top patterns and diamond bottom patterns.
What Is a Diamond Pattern?
The diamond pattern is a reversal chart pattern that occurs after a strong trend, indicating a potential shift in market direction. It forms when price action expands and then contracts, creating a shape that resembles a diamond.
This pattern is rare compared to triangles or head and shoulders formations, but it often signals significant price moves when it appears. There are two types of diamond patterns:
Diamond Top Pattern – A 🐻 Reversal Pattern That Appears After an Uptrend.
Diamond Bottom Pattern – A 🐂 Reversal Pattern That Forms After a Downtrend.
These patterns can help traders identify potential turning points and prepare for a change in trend.
How to Identify a Diamond Pattern in Trading?
To spot a diamond pattern trading setup, look for the following characteristics:
Broadening Formation: The price action initially expands, creating higher highs and lower lows.
Narrowing Structure: After the expansion, the price contracts, forming lower highs and higher lows.
Symmetrical Shape: When trendlines are drawn connecting the highs and lows, they create a diamond shape.
Breakout Point: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the structure, either to the upside or downside.
While it might resemble a diamond quilt pattern or diamond tile pattern on the chart, the key difference is its role as a market reversal signal.
Diamond Top Pattern: Bearish Reversal
A diamond top pattern forms at the peak of an uptrend and signals that bullish momentum is weakening. Traders often look for a downside breakout to confirm the reversal.
How to Trade a Diamond Top Pattern:
Identify the diamond formation after a strong uptrend.
Wait for a breakout below the lower trendline with increased volume.
Enter a short position once the breakout is confirmed.
Set a stop-loss above the recent high.
Target price: Measure the height of the pattern and project it downward.
This pattern suggests buyers are losing control, and a downtrend will likely follow.
Diamond Bottom Pattern: Bullish Reversal
A diamond bottom pattern appears at the end of a downtrend, indicating a potential shift to bullish momentum.
How to Trade a Diamond Bottom Pattern:
Identify the diamond shape forming after a downtrend.
Wait for an upside breakout above the upper trendline with strong volume.
Enter a long position once the breakout is confirmed.
Set a stop-loss below the recent low.
Target price: Measure the pattern’s height and project it upward.
This pattern signals that selling pressure decreases, and buyers may take control.
Why the Diamond Pattern Is Important for Traders
Reliable Reversal Signal. The diamond pattern trading setup strongly indicates trend reversals.
Clear Entry and Exit Points. Well-defined breakout levels make risk management easier.
Works in Different Markets. Whether trading stocks, forex, or crypto, the diamond pattern remains effective.
Final Thoughts
The diamond pattern is a rare but powerful tool that can help traders confidently spot trend reversals. Whether you’re trading a diamond top pattern for bearish setups or a diamond bottom pattern for bullish breakouts, understanding this formation can give you an edge in the market.
So, traders, have you spotted a diamond pattern trading setup recently? Share your experiences and strategies in the comments!
Mastering Candlestick Patterns: Visual Guide for Traders
🔵 Introduction
Candlestick charts are among the most popular tools used by traders to analyze price movements. Each candlestick represents price action over a specific time period and provides valuable insights into market sentiment. By recognizing and understanding candlestick patterns, traders can anticipate potential price reversals or continuations, improving their trading decisions. This article explains the most common candlestick patterns with visual examples and practical Pine Script code for detection.
🔵 Anatomy of a Candlestick
Before diving into patterns, it's essential to understand the components of a candlestick:
Body: The area between the open and close prices.
Upper Wick (Shadow): The line above the body showing the highest price.
Lower Wick (Shadow): The line below the body showing the lowest price.
Color: Indicates whether the price closed higher (bullish) or lower (bearish) than it opened.
An illustrative image showing the anatomy of a candlestick.
🔵 Types of Candlestick Patterns
1. Reversal Patterns
Hammer and Hanging Man: These single-candle patterns signal potential reversals. A Hammer appears at the bottom of a downtrend, while a Hanging Man appears at the top of an uptrend.
Engulfing Patterns:
- Bullish Engulfing: A small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle engulfing the previous one.
- Bearish Engulfing: A small bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle engulfing it.
Morning Star and Evening Star: These are three-candle reversal patterns that signal a shift in market direction.
Morning Star: Occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. It consists of:
- A long bearish (red) candlestick showing strong selling pressure.
- A small-bodied candlestick (bullish or bearish) indicating indecision or a pause in selling. This candle often gaps down from the previous close.
- A long bullish (green) candlestick that closes well into the body of the first candle, confirming the reversal.
Evening Star: Appears at the top of an uptrend, signaling a potential bearish reversal. It consists of:
- A long bullish (green) candlestick showing strong buying pressure.
- A small-bodied candlestick (bullish or bearish) indicating indecision, often gapping up from the previous candle.
- A long bearish (red) candlestick that closes well into the body of the first candle, confirming the reversal.
2. Continuation Patterns
Doji Patterns: Candles with very small bodies, indicating market indecision. Variations include Long-Legged Doji, Dragonfly Doji, and Gravestone Doji.
Rising and Falling Three Methods: These are five-candle continuation patterns indicating the resumption of the prevailing trend after a brief consolidation.
Rising Three Methods: Occurs during an uptrend, signaling a continuation of bullish momentum. It consists of:
- A long bullish (green) candlestick showing strong buying pressure.
- Three (or more) small-bodied bearish (red) candlesticks that stay within the range of the first bullish candle, indicating a temporary pullback without breaking the overall uptrend.
- A final long bullish (green) candlestick that closes above the high of the first candle, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
Falling Three Methods: Appears during a downtrend, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. It consists of:
- A long bearish (red) candlestick showing strong selling pressure.
- Three (or more) small-bodied bullish (green) candlesticks contained within the range of the first bearish candle, reflecting a weak upward retracement.
- A final long bearish (red) candlestick that closes below the low of the first candle, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.
🔵 Coding Candlestick Pattern Detection in Pine Script
Detecting patterns programmatically can improve trading strategies. Below are Pine Script examples for detecting common patterns.
Hammer Detection Code
//@version=6
indicator("Hammer Pattern Detector", overlay=true)
body = abs(close - open)
upper_wick = high - math.max(close, open)
lower_wick = math.min(close, open) - low
is_hammer = lower_wick > 2 * body and upper_wick < body
plotshape(is_hammer, title="Hammer", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, size=size.small)
Bullish Engulfing Detection Code
//@version=6
indicator("Bullish Engulfing Detector", overlay=true)
bullish_engulfing = close < open and close > open and close > open and open < close
plotshape(bullish_engulfing, title="Bullish Engulfing", style=shape.arrowup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.blue, size=size.small)
🔵 Practical Applications
Trend Reversal Identification: Use reversal patterns to anticipate changes in market direction.
Confirmation Signals: Combine candlestick patterns with indicators like RSI or Moving Averages for stronger signals.
Risk Management: Employ patterns to set stop-loss and take-profit levels.
🔵 Conclusion
Candlestick patterns are powerful tools that provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. By combining visual recognition with automated detection using Pine Script, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Practice spotting these patterns in real-time charts and backtest their effectiveness to build confidence in your trading strategy.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – A Complete GuideWhat Are Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)?
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a price imbalance on a chart that occurs when the market moves aggressively in one direction, leaving an area where price did not trade efficiently. These gaps are often created by institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, and large market participants) executing big orders.
Key Characteristics of a FVG:
✅ Occurs when price moves impulsively, creating an imbalance
✅ Appears in a three-candle formation
✅ The gap forms between the wicks of the first and third candles
How to Identify a FVG:
1️⃣ Look for a strong price move (bullish or bearish).
2️⃣ Find a three-candle sequence where the middle candle has a large body and a gap between the first and third candle wicks.
3️⃣ Mark the area between the first and third candle wicks—this is your Fair Value Gap.
Example:
Imagine price explodes upward with a big green candle, skipping multiple price levels without much resistance. This creates an inefficiency because price hasn’t traded fairly in that area, making it likely that price will revisit it later to fill the imbalance.
Here you can see that price completely filled up that gap and moved higher.
Same here:
How to Use Fair Value Gaps in Trading
FVGs can serve as key zones where price is likely to react. Here’s how you can use them to improve your trading:
1️⃣ Fair Value Gaps as Support & Resistance
Bullish FVG (Support Zone):
If price retraces into a bullish FVG (gap formed in an uptrend), it can act as support and push price higher.
This is a good area to look for buying opportunities.
Bearish FVG (Resistance Zone):
If price retraces into a bearish FVG (gap formed in a downtrend), it can act as resistance and push price lower.
This is a good area to look for selling opportunities.
2️⃣ Using FVGs for Trade Entries & Exits
Price often revisits a Fair Value Gap before continuing its original trend.
A trader can wait for price to fill the gap and then look for confirmations like candlestick patterns or volume spikes before entering a trade.
Stop-loss placement: Put your stop-loss below/above the FVG zone to reduce risk.
3️⃣ Liquidity & Institutional Activity
Institutional traders often target these inefficiencies to fill their orders.
When price returns to an FVG, it may be because institutions are executing trades at those levels.
Why Are Fair Value Gaps Useful?
They act as magnets for price – Price tends to revisit these gaps before continuing its move.
They provide high-probability trade setups – FVGs help traders find potential reversal or continuation zones.
They improve risk management – You can use them for better stop-loss placement.
They align with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) – Institutions often use these levels for liquidity.
Tips & Tricks: How to Combine Fair Value Gaps with Other Strategies
1️⃣ FVG + Order Blocks = Strong Confirmation
If a Fair Value Gap aligns with an Order Block, it becomes a powerful area of interest.
This increases the chances of a successful trade.
2️⃣ FVG + Fibonacci Retracements
If an FVG aligns with a key Fibonacci level (like 61.8% or 50%), the chances of a price reaction increase significantly.
3️⃣ FVG + RSI or Divergence
If price revisits a FVG while RSI is overbought or oversold, it signals a high-probability reversal.
4️⃣ Higher Timeframe FVGs Are More Reliable
FVGs on the 1-hour, 4-hour, or daily charts are more effective than those on smaller timeframes.
5️⃣ Monitor News Events
If an FVG is formed due to a major news event (e.g., Fed announcement, CPI data, earnings report), be cautious, as price may act differently than expected.
Final Thoughts
Fair Value Gaps are a powerful tool that help traders identify key levels of liquidity and institutional price action. They work best when combined with other strategies like Order Blocks, Fibonacci, and RSI to increase accuracy.
By understanding how and why price moves back into these gaps, traders can anticipate potential high-probability trade setups and trade alongside smart money.
__________________________________________
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Understanding ICT’s Framework for Price Delivery | Smart Money 📊 In this video, we break down ICT’s framework for price delivery, explaining how smart money moves price efficiently through liquidity pools and imbalance zones. We cover:
✅ Market structure & liquidity
✅ How price seeks inefficiencies (FVGs & Imbalances)
✅ The role of algorithmic price delivery
✅ How to anticipate price movement using ICT concepts
🔔 Subscribe for more ICT-based analysis!
#ICTTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #PriceDelivery
#ICT #Forex #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #MarketStructure #OrderFlow #Liquidity #TraderMindset #5minwithfriday
How Do Traders Spot and Use the Dragonfly Doji CandlestickHow Do Traders Spot and Use the Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Pattern?
The dragonfly doji candlestick pattern holds intrigue and fascination for traders in financial markets. Its distinct shape and positioning on price charts make it a keen subject for observation and analysis. In this article, we will explore this setup, its significance, and how traders use it in their trading strategies.
What Does a Dragonfly Doji Mean?
The red or green dragonfly doji is a candlestick pattern that forms when the opening, closing, and high prices of an asset are equal or almost equal. This formation resembles the shape of a dragonfly because it has an extended lower shadow. It provides bullish signals and is considered a neutral pattern as it provides continuation and reversal signals, depending on its context within a trend. The meaning of a dragonfly doji is that there is uncertainty in the market, and traders are prompted to carefully analyse other factors before making trading decisions.
Traders may find the dragonfly doji pattern on charts of different financial instruments, such as currencies, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, and indices, regardless of the timeframe. Test this pattern on various assets with FXOpen’s TickTrader platform.
The Psychology Behind the Dragonfly Doji
The dragonfly doji candle pattern reflects a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, where neither side gains a decisive advantage. Its formation indicates that sellers initially push prices lower, but buyers step in to push prices back up to the opening level. This results in the distinct long lower shadow and minimal upper shadow.
The psychological meaning of the dragonfly candlestick pattern is significant; it shows that despite bearish pressure, buyers are strong enough to regain control by the close. It signals indecision, highlighting the need for traders to carefully evaluate other indicators and the broader trend before making trading decisions.
How Can You Trade the Dragonfly Doji?
The bullish dragonfly doji provides valuable information about market sentiment. Here are two scenarios where this formation can be significant:
The Dragonfly Doji in an Uptrend
In a bullish trend, the dragonfly doji is generally seen as a continuation signal. This is because, despite sellers attempting to push the price lower, buyers remain active and prevent a significant decline. However, it is worth noting that the inability of buyers to push the price above its open level may indicate a potential weakening of bullish momentum. Traders may consider entering the trade above the open/close of the doji’s candle or if the proceeding bar closes above the doji’s open/close. The stop-loss level may be placed below the candlesticks, while the take-profit target may be set at the nearest resistance level.
In the chart above, the pattern formed in an uptrend, and the trader placed a long trade on the next bar. The stop loss was set below the candle, with the take profit at the closest resistance level.
Dragonfly Doji in a Downtrend
The dragonfly doji in bearish trends may suggest a possible upward reversal. The long lower shadow indicates that buyers entered the market, pushing the price up from its lows. This could be seen as a signal to consider going long or watching for a further bullish confirmation before taking action. Traders may place a stop loss below the candle with a take profit at the closest resistance level or may consider the appropriate risk/reward ratio.
The candle at the end of a downtrend signals a price reversal. The trader placed a buy order at the high of the doji with a stop-loss level below it. The take profit is calculated based on the risk/reward ratio.
Traders can enhance their trading strategies by utilising the free TickTrader trading platform.
How Can You Confirm the Dragonfly Doji?
Confirming the dragonfly doji may increase the reliability of trading decisions. Here are key factors to consider:
- Volume Analysis: High trading volume during the formation of a dragonfly candle may indicate stronger market sentiment and increase the likelihood of a significant move.
- Subsequent Candlesticks: Traders look for a bullish candlestick following the dragonfly candlestick. This reinforces the potential for a trend reversal or continuation.
- Support and Resistance Levels: A formation occurring near significant support levels can strengthen its validity as a potential reversal signal.
- Technical Indicators: To gauge momentum and confirm signals, traders often complement the analysis with indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, and Bollinger Bands.
- Market Context: It’s best to evaluate the broader market trend and news that may impact market sentiment to provide a clearer picture of its implications.
Dragonfly and Other Patterns
Dragonfly doji, gravestone doji, spinning top, and long-legged doji are all types of candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis to indicate potential reversals or indecision in the market. Traders often pay close attention to them when making trading decisions.
Dragonfly Doji vs Gravestone Doji
While the dragonfly doji has a long lower shadow and little or non-existent upper one, the gravestone or inverted dragonfly doji has a long upper wick and little or non-existent lower one. Both patterns indicate indecision, but the dragonfly provides bullish signals, whereas the gravestone indicates potential bearish reversals.
Dragonfly Doji vs Long-Legged Doji
The dragonfly has a long lower shadow with little to no upper shadow, indicating a potential bullish reversal. In contrast, the long-legged version has long upper and lower shadows, reflecting significant indecision and equal pressure from buyers and sellers without a clear directional bias.
Dragonfly Doji vs Hammer
The dragonfly and the hammer both signal potential bullish reversals, but they differ in appearance and context. The dragonfly has no upper shadow, but it has a very small body and an extended lower shadow, while the hammer has a body at the top of the candlestick and a long lower shadow. The hammer typically appears after a downtrend, signalling a reversal, while the dragonfly doji appears in uptrends and downtrends.
Limitations of the Dragonfly Doji
While the dragonfly doji is a valuable candlestick formation for traders, it is not without its limitations. Recognising these constraints can help them understand how to use it most effectively.
- False Signals: The dragonfly sometimes produces false signals, leading traders to anticipate reversals that do not materialise.
- Market Context: Its effectiveness is heavily influenced by the broader market context. It may not be reliable in all situations, particularly in choppy or sideways assets.
- Confirmation Needed: Additional indicators or subsequent price action are usually required to confirm the pattern, as relying solely on its appearance can be risky.
- Limited Power: It does not provide information on the magnitude of the subsequent price movement, making it challenging to set precise profit targets.
Closing Thoughts
Candlestick patterns should not be relied upon as the sole factor in trading decisions. It is essential to perform a comprehensive analysis and implement robust risk management strategies before making any trades. Once you are confident in your analysis, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of spreads as tight as 0.0 pips and commissions starting at just $1.50.
FAQ
What Does Doji Candle Mean?
A doji candle represents a session where the opening and closing prices are almost equal, indicating market indecision. It suggests neither buyers nor sellers are in control, resulting in a standoff. Doji candles can take various forms, including dragonfly, gravestone, and long-legged, each with unique implications.
What Does a Dragonfly Doji Indicate?
A dragonfly doji indicates indecision and potential trend reversal. It forms when the open, high, and close prices are near the same level but it has a long lower shadow. This formation suggests buyers counteracted initial selling pressure, signalling a possible bullish shift.
Is the Dragonfly Doji Bullish or Bearish?
The dragonfly is generally considered bullish, especially after a downtrend. Its formation indicates buyers pushed prices back to the opening level, potentially leading to a price increase.
What Is the Opposite of the Dragonfly Doji?
The opposite of the dragonfly doji is the gravestone doji. The dragonfly has a long lower shadow and little to no upper shadow, while the gravestone features a long upper shadow and minimal lower shadow, indicating a potential bearish reversal.
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2 Ways to Potentially Gauge a Dip in PriceTrading markets should be simple right? Establish the direction of a price trend, take a position in the direction of that trend and enjoy the ride!
Of course, in practice, we all know trading is never that easy. All traders go through similar anxieties regarding whether the current level is the correct one to trade.
Perhaps one of the hardest challenges if you want to buy an asset, is when a high in price has already been established and prices are selling off. Are you now wrong with your view to buy, or should this sudden weakness be used as an opportunity to take a long position at possibly a better level?
As traders, we face these decisions every day, but fortunately, technical analysis offers several tools to aid us. Today, we want to look at 2 approaches that can assist in gauging how far a correction in price may go, and if we should consider that dip in price as an opportunity to take a position or not.
Previous Highs as a Support:
We all know prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or the downside. Corrections are often seen as a healthy counter move to the on-going trend. However, being able to anticipate the extent of such weakness and when to make that trade, can be vital.
If we look at the chart of the UK 100 Index above, we can see that between May 15th 2024, when the index traded to a high of 8477 and August 5th 2024, when the 7906 low was posted, a period of sideways price activity materialised.
An upside closing break from this range materialised on January 17th 2025, at which point, traders perhaps began to anticipate a more extended phase of price strength.
However, as we’ve said, prices don’t always move in straight lines, even after such a break higher. Often, a pullback in price develops, offering opportunities to enter the market at potentially a better level than if we’d blindly followed price strength after the initial break higher.
A pullback in price is perfectly normal and doesn’t alter possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. However, the challenge is anticipating where support may be found again, to hold and resume the advance.
Often, old price highs can be useful, as having previously marked resistance to price strength, once broken they can become support on dips, and may hold future price weakness, even turn it higher once more.
Within the UK 100 index, we might consider 8418 from August 30th and 8477 from May 15th as old price highs, which might then become support, after the January 17th upside break in price.
To highlight this possible support area marked by these previous price highs, where buying opportunities might have been offered in the UK 100 index during the January price setback, we’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the chart below.
Following the January 17th 2025 upside break, having previously been a resistance focus, the 8418 and 8477 highs, might now became potential support to a dip in price, possibly able to hold and reverse the correction back to the upside.
This 8418/8477 range, proved to be support when tested on January 27th 2025, from which price strength developed again, to post new all-time highs.
Importantly, it is possible given that this 8418/8477 range proved to be support in January, it could do so again, so keep that in mind, if price weakness develops, at any point in the future.
Using The 10 Day Moving Average to Act as a Support to Price Dips:
In the example above, the UK 100 index correction in January lasted several days, and in certain cases, this could even last weeks. However, what if price is already within an established uptrend? It’s here that setbacks may be seen over a shorter period of time with shallower price declines.
In this type of set-up, it is often the rising 10 day moving average that marks the extent of a price dip, before turning price activity higher again.
As an example, let’s look at Gold during 2025 so far, focusing on each recent setback in price. During this latest advance, it has been the rising 10 day moving average that has provided support for price dips on each occasion. Subsequent strength then extended the uptrend to new all-time highs.
Within such an advance, as traders, we might focus on the rising 10 day moving average to highlight possible support to short term price dips within an uptrend, and an area we might wish to use to establish long positions, anticipating continuation of the on-going uptrend.
However, it is important to be aware, a break under the 10 day moving average support might reflect a change in price direction and see deeper declines. So the use of a stop loss to potentially protect any positions is important.
With all this in mind, last Friday (February 14th 2025) saw Gold weakness again back to the rising 10 day moving average support. It will be interesting to see if this holds the recent weakness to extend the current uptrend to new all-time highs, or if a closing break lower develops, suggesting risks could turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness.
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2025 ICT Mentorship: Institutional Market Structure Part 22025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 3_Institutional Market Structure Part 2
Greetings Traders!
In Lecture 3 of the 2025 ICT Mentorship, we dive deep into the core principles of market structure, focusing on how institutions truly move the market. Understanding this is essential for precision trading and eliminating emotional biases.
Key Insights from the Lecture
🔹 Distinguishing Minor vs. Strong Swing Points – Learn to differentiate between structural noise and true market shifts.
🔹 Marking Market Structure with Precision – Objectively analyze price action to refine your decision-making process.
🔹 Institutional Market Structure Techniques – Align with smart money to enhance accuracy and consistency.
Why This Matters
Mastering market structure allows traders to anticipate price movement, reducing impulsive trades and reinforcing a disciplined approach. By integrating institutional strategies, we position ourselves for more accurate and confident executions.
Stay focused, keep refining your skills, and let’s continue elevating our trading game.
Institutional Market Structure Part 1:
Enjoy the video and happy trading!
The Architect 🏛️📊
Earnings Season: How to Trade Post-Earnings Drift
Earnings season is in full swing, and while many traders focus on the immediate reaction to a company’s results, consider longer-term trends following earnings announcements that may deliver returns long after the earnings release— Post-Earnings Drift (PED) .
PED is based on a simple yet effective concept: stocks that react positively to strong earnings tend to continue drifting higher, while stocks that react negatively to weak earnings tend to continue drifting lower. This drift can persist for weeks or even months, making it one of the most efficient ways to trade earnings season.
Let’s break down how to identify these potential opportunities, which may have a positive risk-reward profile, and manage positions effectively.
Step 1: Fundamentals – The Catalyst for the Drift
Post-earnings drift is strongest when there’s a clear fundamental catalyst behind the move. Not every earnings beat leads to sustained upside, and not every earnings miss results in prolonged weakness. What matters is whether the report genuinely shifts market expectations.
Key factors to look for:
· Stronger-than-expected revenue and profit growth – The market rewards companies that deliver above expectations.
· Forward guidance upgrades – If management raises expectations, it signals confidence in future growth.
· Margin expansion and improving financial health – Investors want to see profitability improving alongside revenue growth.
· Shifts in business strategy – Companies that announce major structural improvements, such as cost-cutting initiatives or new revenue streams, often see extended moves.
The key is that the earnings report must provide a reason for continued buying or selling pressure. If the reaction is based on short-term noise rather than a fundamental shift, the drift is less reliable.
Step 2: Market Reaction – Confirmation of the Catalyst
Once you’ve identified a strong fundamental catalyst, the next step is looking at the market’s reaction. Not every stock gaps after earnings, but the reaction should provide evidence that the earnings release is driving demand.
Signs of a strong bullish reaction:
· Above-average volume – Institutions don’t place all their trades in one day. High volume suggests big money is stepping in.
· A decisive move higher – A stock that closes strong after earnings has a better chance of continuing higher.
· Follow-through buying in the days after earnings – If the stock remains bid up after the initial reaction, it suggests real demand rather than a temporary spike.
Signs of a strong bearish reaction:
· Heavy selling on high volume – Institutions unloading shares is a warning sign.
· Failure to bounce after the initial drop – Weak stocks tend to stay weak, especially if buyers don’t step in.
· Breaking key support levels – A stock that falls below major technical levels often sees continued selling.
Step 3: Trade Entry & Risk Management
Once you’ve identified a stock with a strong earnings catalyst and a clear market reaction, the next step is executing the trade.
Entry Strategy
For bullish trades: Enter on the first meaningful pullback after the initial earnings reaction. Look for a retest of intraday support or a consolidation period before the next leg higher.
For bearish trades: Enter on a weak bounce that fails to recover key levels, or on a breakdown below the post-earnings low.
Setting Stops Using ATR
The Average True Range (ATR) is a useful tool for setting stops, as it accounts for volatility. A common method is placing a stop 1.5x to 2x ATR below your entry for long trades (above for shorts). This ensures your stop is wide enough to avoid getting shaken out by normal price swings.
Managing the Trade with the 21-EMA
The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21-EMA) is an excellent trailing stop for PED trades.
· As long as the stock stays above the 21-EMA, the drift remains intact.
· A close below the 21-EMA is a signal to exit the position.
This method allows traders to ride the trend while avoiding premature exits.
Real-World Example: Netflix’s Post-Earnings Drift
Let’s look at how this played out with Netflix (NFLX) after its Q3 2024 earnings report.
On October 17, 2024, Netflix reported:
· Earnings of $5.40 per share, beating estimates of $5.12.
· Revenue of $9.825 billion, slightly above expectations.
· A strong subscriber growth report, with 5.1 million new additions—exceeding forecasts by over 1 million.
· Ad-supported subscriptions surging past 50% of new sign-ups in available countries.
· Price hikes announced for Spain and Italy, signaling confidence in pricing power.
The stock reacted positively, gapping up nearly 5% on above-average volume.
Over the next two months, Netflix continued drifting more than 20% higher, confirming the post-earnings drift effect. The trend remained intact until the stock eventually closed below its 21-EMA, marking the end of the move.
Netflix then repeated the pattern in January 2025, beating earnings again and gapping higher on strong subscriber growth and revenue. Since then, the stock has drifted more than 10% higher and remains above its 21-EMA.
Netflix (NFLX Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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Probabilistic thinking. Using Technical logic to get odds.Markets are simple if you think about it.
moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally.
"horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky.
steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals)
rule: break outs always must coincide with 200dma rallies.
Bonus.
High market, strong trend -- best odds for reversal .
50-50 resistance, with weak support --> trickster market. (trap)
strong trend but no flying 200dma --> trap.
50-50 resistance with strong trend, high market, but weak 200dma ---> good odds for reversal.
keeping it simple.
P.S. this method shows why odds favor BTC reversal . Or why 110/120k had to be peak point. for now.
Overtrading Chaos: Classroom Insights & Quick FixesWatching my students get caught up in the whirlwind of overtrading was like watching a rollercoaster ride gone wrong - all that excitement turned into stress, quick decisions based on gut feelings rather than strategy, and seeing their accounts shrink before my eyes. Here's what I've noticed firsthand:
-Emotion Over Logic: They were making choices fueled by the fear of missing out or trying to get back at the market after a loss, not because it was the smart move. Spot on. Emotional trading is the quickest path to financial ruin. It's all about managing those emotions.
-Exhaustion: The constant screen time was draining them, both physically and mentally. This is why I always preach about the importance of having a life outside of trading. Burnout is real and it clouds judgment.
-Costly Habits: Those small fees and spreads started adding up, eating away at their profits with each impulsive trade. Always remember, every trade has a cost. Overtrading is like death by a thousand cuts.
But here’s the good news - I've got some immediate steps I take to turn things around:
1)Trade Log Love: I get them to write down every trade, focusing on the reasons behind their decisions. It’s amazing how this simple act helps them learn from their actions. A trade log isn't just about accountability; it's about education. Every trade is a lesson.
2)Take a Breather: I enforce a little break after each trade. It's like hitting the reset button for your brain, ensuring the next trade isn't just a reaction to the last. This is critical. It’s about breaking the cycle of reactive trading. Think of it as forced discipline.
3)Quality Time: I shift the focus to waiting for those golden opportunities, teaching them that sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. Patience in trading is not just a virtue; it's a strategy. The markets reward those who wait for the right moment.
Come join me as I navigate through the overtrading storm, helping my students, and maybe you too, become more thoughtful, strategic traders! This is what I call practical wisdom. Overtrading is a symptom of not having a solid plan. I'd recommend this course of action to any trader looking to turn their habits around.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Best Strategies to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading
In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading.
You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals.
First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal.
While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones.
One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily. So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern.
One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns.
I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle.
Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then.
Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling.
Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout.
When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel.
It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel.
Its support will represent a strong vertical structure , from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections .
Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months.
A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement.
Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action.
One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous.
In such a price action, the level of the l ast higher low is a very significant point.
The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH.
It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend.
After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement.
If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend.
That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low.
Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross.
Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length.
The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA.
It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend.
On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed
The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold.
While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change.
Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions.
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