Why You Should Never Hold on to Your Positions Beyond a CertainGood day, traders.
I would like to take this opportunity to advise both new and experienced traders that holding onto your position indefinitely is not recommended. Based on percentage calculations, the return required to recover to break even increases at a considerably faster pace as losses grow in size due to compound interest. After a loss of 10%, a gain of 11% is needed to make up for it. When the loss is 20%, it takes a 25% gain to return to break even. To recover from a 50% loss, a 100% gain is required, and to reach the initial investment value after an 80% loss, a 400% gain is necessary.
Investors who experience a bear market must understand that it will take some time to recover, but compounding returns will aid in the process. Consider a bear market where the value drops by 30% and the stock portfolio is only worth 70% of what it was. Suppose the portfolio increases by 10% to reach 77%. The subsequent 10% gains bring it to 84.7%. After two further years of 10% gains, the portfolio reaches its pre-drop value of 102.5%. Consequently, a 30% decline requires a 42% recovery, but a four-year compounding rate of 10% returns the account to profitability.
I will be doing a second part of this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA).
The math behind stock market losses clearly demonstrates the need for investors to take precautions against significant losses, as depicted in the graphic above. Stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies that are mental or limit-based exist for a reason. If the market is headed towards a bear market, it will start to pay off once a particular loss threshold is reached. Investors occasionally struggle to sell stocks they enjoy at a loss, but if they can repurchase the stock or cryptocurrency at a lesser cost, they will like it.
Never stop learning! I would also appreciate hearing your thoughts and opinions on the topic in the comment section.
Thank you.
Chart Patterns
A Basic Guide to Trading a Balanced Volume ProfileBasic Principles of Trading a Balanced Node
Rule 1: Unless the price breaks and holds Value High or Value Low we should expect buyers and sellers to maintain the current balance.
Rule 2: If we break and re-bid from Period Value High we should treat that level as supportive until it is reclaimed ( buy-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 3: If we break and push away from Period Value Low we should treat that level as resistance on retest until it is reclaimed (sell-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 4: If we recover Value Low and it becomes supportive we look for our Period POC and Period Value High as our targets above ( return to balance)
Rule 5: If we fail to hold Period Value High and sellers make it resistance on re-offer we look for our Period POC and Period Value Low as targets (return to balance)
Balance between Value Low and Value High will remain between buyers & sellers until we see a value shift and acceptance above/below on one of our "edges".
Utilizing these rules we can look for opportunities around our Value Edges and have a better understanding how to trade around them.
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 2 🔢Hello Traders welcome back to another concept video. This is the second video in our series -- High Volume Times to Trade --
We talk about
1) 4Hr Candle Opens/Closes
2) New York Stock Exchnage Open
3) London Close
Scalping/Intra-day trading during these times, in my experience, can provide unique opportunities to profit on Eur/Usd.
Similar to Part 1 of our series, these additional times to trade can provide that extra volume for
1) a nice continuation of the preceding trend
2) a short-term reversal of the preceding trend
and 3) act as a catalyst for the beginning of a higher timeframe trend
SPG - Trade analysis & Multi-time frame confluenceThis video is more of a tutorial on why I took a short trade on SPG today. We fell out of our strong buying continuation channels with a rejection of HTF tapered channels and selling channels. Confirmation was the support from our more tapered buying algo and rejected of the bottom of our stronger buying algo (in addition to it lining up with our strong magenta selling channel)
Happy Trading :)
TradingView Screener Update - Now with CHART views !!!This has to be one of the best updates on TradingView in a while - certainly from my perspective.
The TradingView Screener was what initially brought me to using TradingView to be able to quickly and easily filter thousands of stocks down to just the handful that met my criteria and that I wanted to research further to look at investing in.
If you have ever had to rely on signal services or other people to tell you what and when to buy and sell, I would STRONGLY recommend you spend some time on the screener.
No matter how you like to trade - technicals, fundamentals, indicators, price action, RSI, MACD, volume etc etc, the TradingView Screener can quickly help you narrow down any stocks that meet your criteria.
Well worth exploring.
Great update by the team!
: Trade the News: Part 2 - ForexTitle bar: Trade the News: Part 2 - Forex
Content:
Welcome back to our two-part series designed on how to harness the additional volume and volatility that news breaths into the market.
In part 1 we unveiled a 3-step template for trading scheduled newsflow effectively in the stock market, in part 2, we delve into the 24-hour world of forex trading.
A News Trading Paradise
The forex market, with its deep liquidity and 24-hour execution, stands as an ideal arena for news traders. Deep liquidity ensures minimal slippage, even during heightened market activity, giving traders a significant advantage. This abundance of liquidity allows for the accommodation of large order sizes without causing substantial price fluctuations.
Operating 24 hours a day, five days a week, the forex market provides an uninterrupted trading environment. News can break at any time, offering traders a constant stream of opportunities. Whether it's the Asian, European, or North American trading session, the forex market is alive, creating a dynamic backdrop for traders to capitalise on global news events.
Central Bank Bingo
Forex markets, particularly major currency pairs, sway to the decisions of central banks and their monetary policies. In the game of 'central bank bingo,' the market closely analyses statements from major central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB). Every word, tone, and nuance is scrutinised, comparing them to previous statements and underlying expectations.
Key Types of Scheduled News Events in Forex
Scheduled news events in forex primarily fall into two categories: economic data and central bank news.
1. Economic Data:
Inflation Data: Central banks closely monitor inflation as it directly impacts monetary policy decisions.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Forex traders track GDP releases to assess the overall economic health of a nation, influencing currency strength.
Employment Data / Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Employment data, especially U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP), is a significant indicator of economic health. This data is crucial for the USD and has a big impact on major currency pairs.
2. Central Bank News:
Interest Rate Decisions: It goes without saying that interest rate decisions have a direct impact on currency values – a surprise rate hike or cut has the potential to create high levels of volatility.
Central Bank Statements: Verbal cues from central bank officials play a pivotal role in guiding market expectations. Central bank statements provide insights into the thought process and considerations influencing monetary policy. Traders carefully analyse these statements for indications of potential policy changes.
Central Bank Live Press Conference: Following an interest rate decision, the head of the central bank often conducts a live press conference. This event is considered the toughest to plan for, as it introduces an element of unpredictability. Central bank officials may provide additional context, clarification, or unexpected statements during the press conference, leading to potential curveballs that impact currency markets. Traders need to stay vigilant and adapt quickly to any surprises that may arise during this live interaction.
Trading Forex: E.R.T. 3-Step Method Revisited
Let's revisit the E.R.T. framework outlined in Part 1 and tailor it to forex trading.
Step 1: Expectation:
Understand theoretical and real-world expectations.
Theoretical expectations are clearer in forex and easily obtained from financial calendar websites.
Gauging real-world expectations involves recognizing signs of overbought/oversold conditions.
Use higher and lower timeframes to gauge market expectations prior to a news event.
Step 2: Reaction:
Analogies of the damp firework, grower, or shock still apply.
Beware of 'fakeouts,' where the market initially breaks in one direction before a sharp reversal.
Step 3: Trade:
Combine news-based catalyst with a technical catalyst to create a trade setup.
Major forex pairs offer guaranteed liquidity, allowing exploration of lower timeframes like the 5-minute chart for precise entries.
Have a small playbook of patterns that you are comfortable trading. For ideas, check out our Power Patterns series (link at bottom of the page).
Case Study: EUR/USD: January Non-Farm Payrolls
1. Expectation
Theoretical Expectations: Consensus analyst estimates for January NFP was 180k versus 333k the month prior. Average hourly earnings were expected to be 4.1 versus 4.4 the month prior, and the unemployment rate was expected to be 3.8% versus 3.7% the month prior.
Market Expectations:
Higher Timeframe (daily candle chart):
On the daily candle chart, we can see that market positioning is relatively neutral / mildly bearish for EUR/USD – reflecting a slight disconnect to the theoretical expectations. Theoretical expectations are for a weak NFP number which would in theory send EUR/USD higher. However, the RSI is at the 50 mark and the market has formed a small descending channel in recent weeks – signalling mild levels of USD strength.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Lower Timeframe (5min candle chart):
Ahead of the release of the NFP data at 1:30pm UK time, we can see that the market is coiled in a tight range at the top of the descending channel. This indicates that the market is positioning for a weak / in-line NFP reading. We can assume that a strong NFP reading should see prices break swiftly lower.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Reaction
The NFP number hits our screens, the number is 353k! A massive beat, Average Hourly Earnings (4.5%) and Unemployment Rate (3.7%) also beat theoretical expectations.
On the 5min candle chart, the market prints a large bearish momentum candle – breaking below multiple levels of support. At this point we do not look to chase the market, instead we check our playbook for momentum continuation trades and look to take one of those setups.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Trade
The trade setup we’re going for here is a pullback to anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Using the Trading View anchored VWAP tool, we can anchored our VWAP to the NFP breakout.
We look to sell into a pullback towards the anchored VWAP with stops placed above the swing highs on the 5min chart. Our target on the trade is the bottom of the descending channel formed on the daily candle chart.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
"Introducing the 'FasterThanthePriceShadow' Principle: A Unique In the world of technical analysis, the Elliott Wave Principle has long been revered for its ability to identify market trends and predict price movements. However, in volatile markets, deviations from the traditional five-wave pattern can occur, often attributed to the powerful forces of fear and greed driving investor behavior.
One such deviation that I've personally noticed is the occurrence of three-wave movements instead of the expected five within correction patterns, such as ascending triangles. This phenomenon challenges conventional Elliott Wave theory, where corrections are typically composed of three waves, while impulse waves consist of five.
In volatile market conditions, the "FasterThanthePriceShadow" principle comes into play, reflecting the rapid and sometimes erratic behavior of market participants. Fear and greed can override the usual wave structures, causing corrections to be truncated or extended beyond what Elliott originally observed.
When fear and greed dominate the market sentiment, investors may exhibit impulsive and irrational behavior, leading to incomplete or exaggerated wave formations. In the context of ascending triangles, this could manifest as a shorter consolidation phase or a more pronounced breakout, deviating from the traditional Elliott Wave guidelines.
By acknowledging the influence of fear and greed on market dynamics, traders can adapt their strategies to account for these unpredictable movements. While Elliott Wave theory provides valuable insights, the "FasterThanthePriceShadow" principle reminds us to remain flexible and open-minded in our analysis, especially in volatile market conditions.
As we continue to navigate the complexities of financial markets, incorporating alternative perspectives like the "FasterThanthePriceShadow" principle can enhance our understanding and decision-making processes, ultimately leading to more informed trading outcomes.
Determining the Daily Bias / EurUsd Example 📋How do we create a Daily bias to organize our trades ideas?
After all, we want to implement our trades with confidence so that we can manage them as best we can. A Reasonable daily bias can guide us through the volatility and mayhem of intra-day market behavior.
In this video I go through a few hindsight examples and also touch on the current market environment.
Where will the liquidity go next ?Liquidity is shifting within the market, moving from niche to niche as presented in the accompanying chart. One standout winner in this regard is the meme domain , which has seen significant gains because its market capitalization is small. Another area of focus is the AI niche , which is currently experiencing a surge in investor interest and capturing a considerable portion of the liquidity.
Coins with their own independent ecosystems are also drawing in more investors, thanks to their relative liquidity and robust ecosystems. This trend is expected to continue, albeit with some patience required as the market adjusts.
However, it's essential to recognize that liquidity will also flow into other niches within the cryptocurrency space. It's crucial to approach these opportunities with caution, as not all coins or tokens will attract the same level of attention from investors . Simply being invested in a particular coin, even at a lower price, does not guarantee massive returns. Achieving extraordinary gains, such as a 10x increase in value, can be challenging in many domains and niches within the cryptocurrency market.
Additionally, as larger institutional investors enter the cryptocurrency market, the potential gains may become more limited for individual investors. While a 10% profit may be significant for an investor with a capital of $1 million, it may not hold the same weight for someone with only $10,000 to invest.
Happy selling !
Analyzing central bank decisions and economic data releasesAnalyzing central bank decisions and economic data releases is crucial for GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar) traders as these events often have a significant impact on currency prices. Here's how you can effectively analyze central bank decisions and economic data releases:
**1. Central Bank Decisions:**
- **Interest Rate Decisions:** Monitor announcements from central banks, particularly the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), regarding changes in interest rates. Interest rate decisions influence currency valuations by affecting capital flows and investors' perceptions of a country's economic outlook.
- **Monetary Policy Statements:** Pay attention to central bank statements accompanying interest rate decisions. These statements provide insights into policymakers' views on economic conditions, inflationary pressures, and future monetary policy actions.
- **Forward Guidance:** Analyze forward guidance provided by central banks regarding future policy direction and interest rate trajectory. Changes in forward guidance can impact market expectations and influence GBP/USD price movements.
**2. Economic Data Releases:**
- **Key Economic Indicators:** Stay informed about scheduled economic data releases, including GDP reports, inflation data (CPI and PPI), employment figures (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate), retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and housing data. These indicators offer insights into the health of the UK and US economies, influencing currency valuations.
- **Market Consensus and Expectations:** Understand market consensus forecasts for economic data releases. Compare actual data releases with market expectations to assess whether the data surprises positively or negatively. Discrepancies between actual data and expectations can lead to significant market reactions.
- **Revisions and Historical Data:** Consider revisions to previous data releases and analyze trends in historical data. Revisions to economic data can impact market sentiment and influence GBP/USD price movements, especially if they deviate from initial estimates.
**3. Analytical Approach:**
- **Fundamental Analysis:** Incorporate fundamental analysis techniques to assess the overall health of the UK and US economies, including factors such as economic growth, inflation, employment, consumer spending, and monetary policy.
- **Impact on Monetary Policy:** Evaluate how economic data releases may influence central bank monetary policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected economic data may prompt central banks to consider tightening monetary policy, while weaker data may lead to accommodative measures.
- **Market Sentiment:** Monitor market sentiment and investor reactions to central bank decisions and economic data releases. Market sentiment can play a significant role in driving short-term fluctuations in GBP/USD prices, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty.
**4. Risk Management:**
- **Volatility Management:** Exercise caution and implement appropriate risk management strategies to mitigate potential losses during periods of increased volatility surrounding central bank decisions and economic data releases. Consider using stop-loss orders, position sizing, and diversification to manage risk effectively.
By effectively analyzing central bank decisions and economic data releases, GBP/USD traders can gain valuable insights into market dynamics, identify trading opportunities, and make informed decisions that align with their trading strategies and risk tolerance.
Incorporating economic calendars into trading analysisIncorporating economic calendars into trading analysis is essential for GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar) traders as it helps them stay informed about upcoming economic events, announcements, and data releases that can significantly impact currency prices. Here's how traders can effectively integrate economic calendars into their trading analysis:
1. **Stay Updated on Key Economic Events:**
- Regularly check economic calendars to stay informed about scheduled economic events, including central bank meetings, interest rate decisions, GDP releases, employment reports, inflation data, and other economic indicators relevant to GBP/USD.
2. **Identify High-Impact Events:**
- Focus on high-impact events that have the potential to cause significant volatility and price movements in GBP/USD. These events typically include central bank decisions (e.g., Bank of England monetary policy meetings), major economic data releases (e.g., UK GDP, US non-farm payrolls), and geopolitical developments.
3. **Plan Ahead:**
- Plan your trading strategy and position management around scheduled economic events. Consider adjusting your position sizes, setting stop-loss orders, or avoiding trading altogether during periods of high volatility, especially around major economic releases.
4. **Understand Market Expectations:**
- Pay attention to market expectations and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic releases. Discrepancies between actual data and market expectations can lead to significant market reactions and trading opportunities in GBP/USD.
5. **Monitor Currency Correlations:**
- Understand the potential impact of economic events on GBP/USD and its correlation with other currency pairs, such as EUR/USD. For example, a positive economic report for the UK may strengthen GBP/USD but weaken EUR/USD due to diverging monetary policy expectations.
6. **Use Event-Based Trading Strategies:**
- Implement event-based trading strategies that capitalize on anticipated market reactions to economic events. For instance, traders may adopt a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" approach, where they enter positions based on market expectations before the event and exit once the event occurs.
7. **Stay Flexible and Adapt:**
- Remain flexible and adapt your trading strategy based on real-time market developments and unexpected outcomes of economic events. Be prepared to adjust your positions and risk management strategies accordingly to navigate volatile market conditions effectively.
8. **Utilize Risk Management:**
- Prioritize risk management and ensure you have appropriate risk controls in place to mitigate potential losses during periods of heightened volatility surrounding economic events. Consider using stop-loss orders, limiting leverage, and diversifying your trading portfolio to manage risk effectively.
By integrating economic calendars into their trading analysis, GBP/USD traders can stay informed, anticipate market movements, and capitalize on trading opportunities while effectively managing risk during periods of increased volatility surrounding economic events.
the importance of InducementLots of Smart Money Traders usually trade Based on Structure and Order Block but in Reality Order Block is Not SMC . Order Block just additional Confirmation for buy or sell . when you look any order Block then dont trade blindly you have to wait for inducement or Liquidity sweep Clear Confirmation before buy sell on Order block . Let see how it work
Triangle Pattern Trading: A Trap for NewbiesThe triangle pattern is a popular chart pattern that is often used by technical analysts to identify potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that the triangle pattern can also be a trap for unsuspecting beginners.
Why the Triangle Pattern is a Trap
One of the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very subjective pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, and what one trader might identify as a triangle pattern, another trader might not.
Another reason why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very common pattern. This means that there are many opportunities for traders to trade this pattern, which can lead to overtrading. Overtrading is a common problem for beginners, and it can lead to significant losses.
Smart Money Traders and the Triangle Pattern
Smart money traders are aware of the fact that the triangle pattern can be a trap for beginners. They will often use this pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions.
Here are four examples of how smart money traders use the triangle pattern to trap beginners:
NEO: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
RVN: Rformed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
DYDX: formed a descending triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
TRX: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
How to Avoid the Triangle Pattern Trap
There are a few things that traders can do to avoid the triangle pattern trap:
Be aware of the subjectivity of the pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, so traders should be careful not to get too caught up in trying to identify this pattern.
Don't overtrade. The triangle pattern is a very common pattern, which means that there are many opportunities to trade this pattern. Traders should be careful not to overtrade this pattern, as this can lead to significant losses.
Be aware of smart money traders. Smart money traders will often use the triangle pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Traders should be aware of this and be careful not to fall for these traps.
Conclusion
The triangle pattern can be a useful tool for identifying potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that this pattern can also be a trap. By understanding the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap, and by taking steps to avoid these traps, traders can protect themselves from significant losses.
THE FOREX CHART PATTERNS GUIDE 4 BEGINNERS One of the most important skills for successful trading is Forex chart patterns analysis. Learning to recognize price formations on the charts is an essential part of the Forex strategy of every trader. Then, it is vital that you learn about these figures, their meaning and how you can use them to your advantage.
There are 3 main types of Forex chart patterns:
Continuation: this group includes price extension figures like the flag pattern, the pennant or the wedges (rising or falling).
Reversal: it refers to patterns where the price direction reverses like the double top or bottom, the head and shoulders or triangles.
Neutral: these are formations where the price direction is unknown.
Maybe you are wondering how to identify each of these patterns. Moreover, how can you make trading decisions after you draw on? In this guide, we will explain everything you need to know about Forex chart patterns and which are our favorite ones to make profits from the market.
FOREX CHART PATTERNS AND THEIR IMPORTANCE IN TRADING
In fact, chart patterns represent price hesitation. When you have a trend on the chart, it is very likely to be paused for a while before the price action undertakes a new move. In most cases, this pause is conducted by a chart pattern, where the price action is either moving sideways, or not very strong with its move.
TYPES OF FOREX CHART PATTERNS
There are three types of chart pattern figures in Forex based on the price movement. Let’s have a look at each group.
CONTINUATION CHART PATTERNS
Continuation chart patterns are the ones that are expected to continue the current price trend, causing a fresh new impulse in the same direction. For instance, if you have a bullish trend, and the price action creates a continuation chart pattern, there is a big chance that the bullish trend will continue.
The most popular continuation chart patterns are:
Flags
Pennants
and Wedges
The image above depicts them. Each of these six formations has the potential to activate a new impulse in the direction of the previous trend.
FLAG CONTINUATION PATTERN
This pattern is characterized by bullish or bearish strong price movement preceding a channel formation. The price continues its direction after breaking the channel.
PENNANT CONTINUATION PATTERN
The main difference versus flags is that the price pauses and fluctuates in a horizontal range that decreases before breaking instead of moving within two parallel lines.
WEDGE CONTINUATION PATTERN
It is kind of a combination of flags and pennants, with an upward or downward movement in range before the price breaks and continues its original direction.
REVERSAL CHART PATTERNS
On the other hand, reversal patterns are opposite to continuation patterns. They usually reverse the current price trend, causing a fresh move in the opposite direction.
For example, suppose you have a bullish trend and the price action creates a trend reversal chart pattern, there is a big chance that the previous bullish trend will be reversed. This is likely to cause a fresh bearish move on the chart.
The most popular reversal chart patterns are:
Double Tops and Bottoms
Head and Shoulders
Wedges
Expanding Triangles
Triple Tops and Bottoms
Please note that the Rising and the Falling Wedge could act as reversal and continuation patterns in different situations. This depends on the previous trend. Just remember that the Rising Wedge has bearish potential and the Falling Wedge has bullish potential, no matter what the previous trend is.
NEUTRAL CHART PATTERNS
Last but not least we have neutral chart patters. These formations signal a price move, but the direction is unknown. In the process of the pattern confirmation, traders realize the pattern’s potential and tackle the situation with the respective trade.
For example, let’s suppose the Forex pair is trending in the bullish direction. Suddenly, a neutral chart pattern appears on the chart. What would you do in this case? You should wait to see in which direction the pattern will break. This will give you a hint about the potential of the pattern.
The most popular neutral chart patterns are Triangle patterns:
Ascending Triangle
Descending Triangle
Symmetrical Triangle
Symmetrical Expanding Triangle
These are the most common neutral chart patterns that have the potential to push the price in either the bullish or the bearish direction.
Now you have around 20 different chart pattern examples. But which are the best chart patterns to trade?
We will discuss this in the next section of the guide.
TOP FOREX CHART PATTERNS
Now that we have shared the chart patterns basics, we would like to let you know which are the best chart patterns for intraday trading. Then we will give you a detailed explanation of the structure and the respective rules for each one.
So our top Forex Chart patterns are:
Flags and Pennants
Double Top and Double Bottom
Head and Shoulders
The Flag and the Pennant are two separate chart patterns that have price continuation functions. However, we like to treat these as one as they have a similar structure and work in exactly the same way.
HOW TO TRADE FLAGS AND PENNANTS
The Flag chart pattern has a continuation potential on the Forex chart. The bull Flag pattern starts with a bullish trend called a Flag Pole, which suddenly turns into a correction inside a bearish or a horizontal channel.
Then if the price breaks the upper level of the channel, we confirm the authenticity of the Flag pattern, and we have sufficient reason to believe that the price will start a new bullish impulse.
For this reason, you can buy the Forex pair on the assumption that the price is about to increase. Place your Stop Loss order below the lowest point of the Flag.
BULLISH FLAG PATTERN EXAMPLE
The Flag pattern has two targets on the chart. The first one stays above the breakout on a distance equal to the size of the Flag. If the price completes the first target, then you can pursue the second target that stays above the breakout on a distance equal to the Flag Pole.
BULLISH PENNANT PATTERN EXAMPLE
The Pennant chart pattern has almost the same structure as the Flag. A bullish Pennant will start with a bullish price move (the Pennant Pole), which will gradually turn into a consolidation with a triangular structure (the Pennant). Notice that the consolidation is likely to have ascending bottoms and descending tops.
Moreover, if the price breaks the upper level of the Pennant, you can pursue two targets the same way as with the Flag. The first target equals the size of the Pennant and the second target equals the size of the Pole.
At the same time, your Stop Loss order should go below the lowest point of the Pennant.
As you see, Flags and Pennants’ technical analysis works exactly the same way. The only difference is that the bottoms of the Pennant pattern are ascending, while the Flag creates descending bottoms that develop in a symmetrical way compared to the tops. This is the reason why we put the Flag and Pennant chart patterns indicator under the same heading.
HOW TO THE DOUBLE TOP AND BOTTOM CHART PATTERN
The Double Top is a reversal chart pattern that comes as a consolidation after a bullish trend, creates a couple of tops approximately in the same resistance area and starts a fresh bearish move.
Conversely, the Double Bottom is a reversal chart pattern that comes after a bearish trend, creates a couple of bottoms in the same support area, and starts a fresh bullish move.
We will discuss the bullish version of the pattern, the Double Top chart pattern, to approach the figure closely.
To enter a Double Top trade, you would need to see the price breaking through the level of the bottom that is located between the two tops of the pattern. When the price breaks the bottom between the two tops, you can short the Forex pair, pursuing a minimum price move equal to the vertical size of the pattern measured starting from the level of the two tops to the bottom between the two tops.
Your Stop Loss order should be located approximately in the middle of the pattern
Notice that the Double Bottom chart pattern works exactly the same way but in the opposite direction.
Similarly, the Head and Shoulders is another famous reversal pattern in Forex trading. It comes as a consolidation after a bullish trend creating three tops. The first and third tops are approximately at the same level. However, the second top is higher and stays as a Head between two Shoulders. This is where the name of the pattern comes from.
HOW TO TRADE THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN
The Head of the pattern has a couple of bottoms from both of its sides. The line connecting these two bottoms is called a Neckline. When the price creates the second shoulder and breaks the Neckline in a bearish direction, this confirms the authenticity of the pattern.
When the Neckline breaks, you can pursue the bearish potential of the pattern that is likely to send the price action downward on a distance equal to the size of the pattern – the vertical distance between the Head and the Neckline applied starting from the moment of the breakout.
Your Stop Loss order in a Head and Shoulders trade should go above the second shoulder of the pattern.
As with the other patterns we have discussed, the Head and Shoulders chart pattern has its opposite version – the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It acts absolutely the same way, but everything is upside down. If you would like to learn more about the Head and Shoulders chart pattern, check this live trading example.
PRO TIP: USING METATRADER 4 ZIGZAG INDICATOR TO SPOT CHART PATTERNS
One of the best-kept secrets from seasoned traders lies around a chart pattern recognition indicator. The good news is you can also have it. It is built into the default version of the MetaTrader 4 trading platform.
The indicator is called Zigzag. What it does is to represent the general price action with straight lines by neglecting smaller price fluctuations and putting emphasis on the real-deal price moves. This way you can very easily visualize a real pattern on the chart.
To sum up, the forex chart patterns technical analysis is a crucial part of the Forex price action trading. We had a look at the most common price formations and which ones are our favorites to trade.
Now is the time for you time apply what you have learned in this guide and drop a comment below if you have any questions.