Options Blueprint Series: Backspreads as a Portfolio Hedge1. Introduction
Backspreads are a versatile options strategy as they allow traders to benefit from significant moves in the underlying asset, particularly when there is an expectation of increased volatility.
2. Understanding Backspreads
A backspread is an advanced options strategy involving the sale of a small number of options and the purchase of a larger number of out-of-the-money options. This setup creates a position that benefits from large price movements in the underlying asset.
3. Generic Uses of Backspreads
Backspreads offer traders a flexible tool to capitalize on significant price movements and shifts in market volatility. Here are some common uses:
Market Sentiment Alignment:
Bullish Sentiment (Call Backspreads): Traders use call backspreads when they expect a significant upward move. This strategy involves selling a smaller number of lower-strike call options and buying a larger number of higher-strike call options.
Bearish Sentiment (Put Backspreads): Conversely, put backspreads are used when traders anticipate a significant downward move. This involves selling a smaller number of higher-strike put options and buying a larger number of lower-strike put options.
Volatility Trading:
Backspreads are particularly useful in trading volatility. They create positions with positive Vega, meaning they benefit from increases in implied volatility. This makes backspreads an excellent choice during times of market uncertainty or expected volatility spikes.
4. Hedging an Equity Portfolio using with S&P 500 Futures Put Backspreads
Put backspreads offer an effective way to hedge a long equity portfolio against sharp downward moves. By setting up a put backspread, traders can create a position that not only provides downside protection but also benefits from increased market volatility.
Setting Up a Put Backspread for Hedging:
Sell 1 OTM Put: The initial step involves selling one out-of-the-money (OTM) put option. This option will generate a premium, which can be used to offset the cost of the puts that will be purchased.
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Next, purchase two lower OTM put options. These options will provide the necessary downside protection. Depending on the strike selected, the cost of these puts will be fully or partially covered by the premium received from selling the higher-strike put.
Constructing a Positive Vega Position:
The structure of the put backspread results in a position with positive Vega. This characteristic is particularly valuable as volatility typically rises during periods of sharp declines.
Risk Profile:
Below is the risk profile of a put backspread used for hedging purposes as described in section #6 below.
5. Market Scenarios
Understanding how a put backspread behaves under different market scenarios is crucial for effective trade management and risk mitigation. Here, we explore the potential outcomes:
Market Moving Up or Staying the Same: Flat P&L
If the market moves up or remains around the current level, the put backspread will likely expire worthless.
Market Moving Down Sharply: Increased Profitability
If the market experiences a sharp decline, the put backspread would potentially become profitable.
Impact of Increased Volatility: Enhanced Gains
A rise in implied volatility benefits the put backspread as higher volatility increases the value of the bought puts more than the sold put, adding to the overall profitability of the strategy.
Maximum Risk and Trade Management:
Maximum Risk: Limited to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received (or plus the net debit paid).
Trade Management: It is essential to actively manage the position.
6. Trade Example
To illustrate the application of a put backspread as a hedge, let's consider a detailed trade example using S&P 500 Futures Options.
Trade Rationale:
Current Market Condition: The S&P 500 Futures have just created a new all-time high, indicating that the market is at a crucial juncture. From this point, the market could either continue its upward trajectory or experience a severe change of direction.
Implied Volatility (VIX): The VIX, which measures the implied volatility of options, is currently very low at 11.99. This low volatility environment makes it an ideal time to enter a backspread, as any future increase in volatility will significantly benefit the position.
Trade Setup:
Underlying Asset: S&P 500 Futures
Current Price: 5447
Strategy: Put Backspread
Expiration Date: December 2024
Specifics:
Sell 1 OTM Put: Sell 1 4600 put option
Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Buy 2 4100 put options
Entry Price:
Sell 1 4600 Put: Receive $2,160 premium per contract (43.2 points)
Buy 2 4100 Puts: Pay $1,068.5 premium each; total $2,137 for two contracts (21.37 points x 2)
Net Cost:
The net cost of the backspread is the premium paid for the bought puts minus the premium received from the sold put.
Net Cost: $2,137 (paid) - $2,160 (received) = $23 net credit
As seen below, we are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Maximum Risk:
500 – 0.46 = 499.54 points (distance between strike prices minus the net credit received).
7. Importance of Risk Management
Risk management is a fundamental aspect of successful trading and investing. It involves identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential risks to protect capital and maximize returns. When implementing a put backspread as a portfolio hedge, understanding and applying robust risk management practices is crucial.
Using Stop Loss Orders and Hedging Techniques:
Stop Loss Orders: Placing stop loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position when the market reaches a certain price level. This ensures that losses do not exceed a predetermined amount, providing a safety net against adverse market movements.
Hedging Techniques: Utilizing hedging strategies, such as combining put backspreads with other options or futures contracts, can provide additional layers of protection. This approach can help manage risk more effectively by diversifying exposure and reducing the impact of unfavorable market conditions.
Importance of Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Defined Risk Strategies: Employing strategies with clearly defined risk parameters, such as put backspreads, ensures that potential losses are limited and known in advance. This contrasts with strategies that expose traders to unlimited risk, which can lead to catastrophic losses.
Position Sizing: Properly sizing positions based on risk tolerance and account size is essential. This involves calculating the maximum potential loss and ensuring it aligns with the trader's risk management plan.
Precise Entries and Exits:
Entry Points: Entering trades at optimal levels, based on technical analysis, support and resistance and UFO levels, and market conditions, enhances the probability of success. In the case of put backspreads, entering when volatility is low and market conditions are favorable increases the potential for profitability.
Exit Points: Setting clear exit points, including profit targets and stop loss levels, helps manage risk and lock in gains. Regularly reviewing and adjusting these levels based on market developments ensures that positions remain aligned with the trader's overall strategy.
Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment:
Regular Review: Continuously monitoring market conditions, position performance, and risk parameters is essential for effective risk management. This involves staying informed about economic events, market trends, and changes in volatility.
Adjustments: Making timely adjustments to positions, such as rolling options, adjusting stop loss levels, or hedging with additional instruments, helps manage risk dynamically and adapt to changing market conditions.
By incorporating these risk management practices, traders can effectively use put backspreads to hedge their portfolios and protect against significant market downturns.
8. Conclusion
In summary, put backspreads offer a powerful tool for hedging long equity portfolios, especially in low volatility environments and/or when markets are at all-time highs. By understanding the mechanics of put backspreads, their application in various market scenarios, and the importance of active risk management, traders can enhance their ability to protect their investments and capitalize on market opportunities.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Chart Patterns
Brilliant Basics - Part 1: Trendlines"Champions are brilliant at the basics." - John Robert Wooden, legendary basketball coach. In trading, just like in sports, mastering the fundamentals forms the foundations for exceptional performance.
Welcome to the first part of our educational series, Brilliant Basics . In this series, we'll explore how mastering the fundamentals lays the groundwork for achieving high-level performance in trading. Today, we focus on trendlines, a crucial tool for any trader aiming to understand market momentum.
Simple Elegance
Trendlines are so simple in their design that their importance can often be dismissed. A child could map the swings of a market and tell you whether the line was upward or downward sloping. Yet, this simplicity is precisely what gives trendlines their potency.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The elegance of trendlines lies in their ability to distil market movements into an easily interpretable format. This simplicity does not mean they lack depth; rather, it means they are accessible to all traders, regardless of experience level. Here’s why their simplicity is so important:
Clarity in Chaos: Markets can be noisy and unpredictable, but trendlines help to bring order to this chaos. If drawn correctly, they provide a clear visual representation of the market’s overall direction and volatility.
Universal Application: Trendlines can be applied to any market, on any timeframe. Whether you are trading stocks, commodities, or forex, trendlines work the same way, making them a universal tool in a trader's toolkit.
Consistent Feedback: Trendlines offer immediate visual feedback on price action. If a trendline is respected by the market, it reinforces your analysis. If it is broken, it signals a potential change in momentum or trend.
How to Draw Trendlines Correctly
Drawing trendlines might seem straightforward, but there are specific guidelines to ensure they are both accurate and useful:
1. Identify Swings: Begin by identifying the swing highs and swing lows on your chart. For an uptrend line, connect at least two higher lows. For a downtrend line, connect at least two lower highs. Ensure these points are significant swings and not minor fluctuations.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Avoid Cutting Prices: A trendline should not intersect any price action between the points it connects. Drawing a trendline that cuts through price bars undermines its validity and the potential insights it can offer. The line should clearly touch the chosen swing points without cutting through the price action in between. Draw multiple high quality trendlines rather than a ‘line of best fit’.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Consistency: Maintain a consistent approach when drawing trendlines. Use the same criteria for identifying swing points and avoid forcing a trendline to fit the data. This consistency helps in making objective and reliable trading decisions.
Trendline Fans and Their Insights
A single trendline can offer valuable insights, but using multiple trendlines—forming a trendline fan—can provide a deeper understanding of market momentum and potential changes in trend.
Rising Momentum: In an uptrend, if the subsequent trendlines are steeper, it indicates increasing momentum. Each steeper line shows that buyers are stepping in more aggressively. However, should trendlines increase in steepness exponentially this leaves the trend vulnerable to exhaustion.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Ebbing Momentum: Conversely, if the subsequent trendlines in an uptrend are less steep, it indicates decreasing momentum. This situation suggests that while prices are still rising, the strength of the upward movement is waning.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Practical Applications
Understanding the simplicity of trendlines enhances their practical application in trading. Here’s how you can leverage their elegance:
Momentum Assessment: As we’ve seen with the trendline fans, the steepness of a trendline or progressive steepness of a trendline fan can give a valuable real-time insight into market momentum.
Support and Resistance: Trendlines act as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, the trendline or trendline fan serves as a support levels where price may bounce back up upon testing. In a downtrend, the trendline acts as resistance, where price might reverse downward upon touching.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Entry Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as entry signals, especially when used on multiple timeframes. A break above a downtrend line on a lower timeframe, in-line with a bigger picture uptrend could create an attractive buying opportunity. The inverse is true with a break below an ascending trendline on a lower timeframe.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Exit Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as exit signals. A break below an uptrend line or multiple uptrend lines in a trendline fan might indicate a potential reversal and an exit point.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
The simple elegance of trendlines makes them an indispensable tool in technical analysis. Their straightforward nature belies the depth of information they can provide, making them accessible yet useful. By mastering the basics of drawing and interpreting trendlines, traders can gain a clearer understanding of market trends and make more informed trading decisions.
As we continue our Brilliant Basics series, stay tuned for Part 2, where we will explore support and resistance levels. Understanding this fundamental concept will further enhance your ability to identify potential reversal zones.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
How To Grow A Forex or Crypto Acc Scalping A 5m Time FrameIn this video, we delve into a high-probability scalping strategy, building upon the concepts introduced in our previous videos on developing a trading plan and risk management. This third installment in the series focuses on refining entry points for high-probability trades. We explore a basic trend continuation strategy on the 4-hour time frame, then zoom in on the 5-minute time frame to identify specific price action that provides a precise entry point. Our approach involves identifying when price action begins to trade sideways, forming a range on the 5m time frame, and waiting for signs of volatility, where price takes out stop losses above or below the range. Once this occurs, the trend typically sets up on the lower time frame, allowing us to enter our trade on the 5-minute chart. We always place stops above or below the previous high, targeting the previous price swing. Please note that this video is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.
How To Scalp or Day Trade XAUUSD. Scalping Strategy 15m. In this video, we explore a high-probability scalping and/or day trading strategy for XAUUSD (Gold), building upon concepts introduced in our previous videos about trading plan development and risk management. This installment focuses on refining entry points for high-probability trades. Initially, we analyze a basic trend continuation strategy on the 4-hour time frame. Subsequently, we zoom in on the 15-minute time frame to pinpoint specific price action that offers precise entry opportunities. Our approach involves identifying sideways price action, forming a range, and patiently waiting for signs of volatility. Once liquidity is hit above or below the range, the trend often establishes itself on the lower time frame, allowing us to execute trades on the 15-minute chart. As always, please note that this video serves an educational purpose and should not be considered financial advice.” 🚀📊
How to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count.Hello fellow traders, today I would like to show you how to apply a Kennedy Channeling technique (by Jeffrey Kennedy) to identify and confirm Elliott waves with more confidence.
1. Base Channel:- Wave 3 identification
When wave 2 is complete, connect the origin of wave 1 and the end of wave 2. Draw a parallel line along the top of wave 1. As long as price action stays within this channel, you can consider price action corrective, probably wave C of a Zigzag. In a bullish trend, prices ought to break above the upper boundary line of this channel for wave 3 count to be acceptable.
2. Acceleration Channel:-Wave 4 identification.
Connect the extreme of wave 1 and the top of wave 3. Draw a parallel line starting at the bottom of wave 2. Only after prices break through the lower boundary line of the acceleration channel, could you be convinced that wave 3 is over and wave 4 is unfolding.
3. Final Channel:- Wave 5 identification
Connect the end of waves 2 and 4. Draw a parallel line along the top of wave 3 to project wave 5 target. It is quite common for wave 5 to terminate upon reaching the upper trendline of the final channel.
That's all for today. Trade wisely!
Mistakes is the growth of a Trader.One key pivotal change of my trading is being able to learn from my mistakes and continually re-tweak my trading when I learn from my mistakes.
Have a watch of the trade recap where key lessons will be learn such as:
Giving your trades a second chance
Minimising a loss.
▶️▶️▶️ What is Wyckoff method? ◀️◀️◀️▶️▶️▶️ What is Wyckoff method? ◀️◀️◀️
This trading method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists with series of principles and strategies originally designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life experience for studying market behavior, and his work still influences much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although initially it was focused only on stocks.
Richard has conducted a large amount of research that has led to the creation of several theories and methods of trading. This article provides an overview of his work and includes three fundamental laws.
✔️ Three Laws of Wyckoff ✔️
1️⃣ Law of supply and demand
The first law states, that the value of assets start rising when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the opposite direction. That's one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, that Wyckoff doesn't rule out in his writings. We can represent the first law as three simple equations:
📍 Demand > Supply = price Max;
📍 Demand < supply = price falls;
📍 Demand = supply = no significant
price change (low volatility).
In other words, Wyckoff's first law suggests, that an excess of demand over supply causes prices to rise because there are more buyers than sellers. But in a situation where there are more sales than buyers, and supply exceeds demand, it indicates a further drop in value.
2️⃣ Law of Cause and Effect
The second law states, that the differences between supply and demand are not a coincidence. Instead, they reflect preparatory actions resulting from certain events. In Wyckoff's terminology, an accumulation period (cause) eventually leads to an uptrend (effect). In turn, the distribution period (cause) provokes the development of a downtrend (consequence).
3️⃣ The law of connection between efforts and results
Wyckoff's third law states, that changes in price are the result of a collective effort that's reflected in trading volume. In the case when the growth in the value of an asset corresponds to a high trading volume, there is a high probability that the trend will continue its movement. But if the volumes are too small at a high price, the growth is likely to stop and the trend may change its direction.
❗️❗️❗️ For example, let's imagine that the Bitcoin market starts consolidating with very high volume after a long bearish trend. High trading volumes indicate great effort, but sideways movement (low volatility) suggests little result. If a large amount of bitcoin changes hands and the price does not fall significantly, this may indicate that the downtrend may be ending and there will be a reversal soon.
You can find more my educational posts by hashtag #rocketbombeducational (You can click it under the pic of this post)
Thanks for your attention
I'll be glad to see your feedback
Sincerely yours Kateryna💙💛
Trade identification: Using bitcoin as an exampleHello,
Trade identification is the process through which you are able to identify setups that can be actioned on in the markets. For this example, I shall be using the BTCUSD chart to chant my path as I look for tradeable setups.
1: Structure drawing
Identifying the structure of trades is very key since it creates a sense of knowing where the market is at from a greater point of view.
The structure on a 2 weeks chart shows that the crypto is at the top of the chart. This shows that it might not be a good time to buy since it is advisable to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. However, we can always look for smaller trades using lower timeframes and get better setups.
2: Move to lower time frames & identify patterns.
Patterns are very key in helping you identify tradeable assets. For my asset I moved to the 6h timeframe to zone in and identify tradeable opportunities. This helped me identify the Expanding triangle setup on a bigger scale.
This is a sideways move that will help me trade on the asset for the short term. In the expanding triangle I was able to identify other smaller correction patterns that guide me on how the market is moving.
3: Entry identification
After you have determined where you are at in the eco cycle, very key is now to identify the next causes of action. You must never trade at the top (buying overpriced assets). Very important is to always note that there will always be more opportunities in the future and never to chase trades that have already gone. The ideal situation is to look for corrections as entry points and buy/sell with them.
Next now will be to look for areas where you can enter on an even lower timeframe.
The chart shows that a correction is happening on a lower timeframe (1hour). Now have an alert at the bottom of the correction also coupled with indicators.
Thats the entry point of the trade.
4: Target setting
The exit target shall be set using the 6 hour chart and will be at the top. A stop loss will be just behind the trendline as shown below. This is very key for risk management.
Now wait for the price to come close to your entry points and good luck. We shall follow this trade to end.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple IndicatorsTechnical Analysis Report: Advanced Trading Strategies Using Multiple Indicators
Introduction:
In this educational video, a comprehensive approach to technical analysis is presented, focusing on the identification of trend reversals and entry points in the market. The strategy incorporates a diverse set of indicators and concepts to enhance trading precision and decision-making.
Key Components:
1. Indicators Utilized:
- Fibonacci Retracement (Fibonacci)
- Average True Range (ATR)
- Cumulative Volume Delta
- Smart Money Concepts
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trailing Stop Loss ATR
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku)
2. Objective:
The primary goal of the strategy is to pinpoint the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, facilitating well-timed trading decisions. By combining various technical tools, traders aim to increase the probability of successful trades.
3. Trading Philosophy:
- The emphasis on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as a foundational element underscores the strategy's commitment to deriving signals from this powerful indicator.
- The reference to being an "Ichimokian" reflects a dedication to mastering Ichimoku strategies and principles in trading practices.
Conclusion:
By integrating a spectrum of indicators such as Fibonacci, ATR, volume analysis, RSI, and Ichimoku, traders following this methodology can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics. The utilization of these tools in conjunction with each other enhances the ability to identify optimal entry and exit points, laying a strong foundation for informed and strategic trading decisions.
This video encapsulates the essence of the educational content, offering insights into the advanced technical analysis approach advocated by the "ICHIMOKUontheNILE" community.
🟣 Channel Trading Strategy 🟣
Hello, friends! 👋🏻Today I'll wanna share with You my knowledge about channel trading strategy.
❗️ Channel Trading Strategy ❗️ is a classic form of trading in both crypto and other markets.
This is a trend trading strategy , so accuracy and safety are very high. Today, I will present all of you about the Channel pattern and how to trade with it in the most complete and detailed way.
❓ What is a Channel Pattern? ❓
The Channel pattern is a development of price following the trend which consists of two parallel support and resistance levels. Prices will fluctuate and create trends along the corridor created by these two levels.
⚡️This pattern ends when the price breaks out of either the resistance or support and creates a new trend . The breakout direction is often in the opposite direction to the direction of the pattern.👇
Two Common Types of Channel Patterns
With two parallel and horizontal resistance and support levels, this is a rectangular price pattern.
Channel Up or Ascending Channel
This Channel pattern type has two parallel and upward levels of Resistance and Support . The breakout of this pattern will usually be at the support. After the breakout, the price will reverse down. In some cases, the price may retest this support.
Channel Down or Descending Channel
In contrast to the Channel Up pattern, we have the Channel Down pattern with two parallel and downward levels of resistance and support. After creating this pattern, the price usually breaks out upwards (resistance breakout) and goes up. It is possible for a strong uptrend to appear after this breakout.
Trade Effectively with the Channel Pattern
There are two types of trading using the Channel pattern: trading within the price channel and trading as per the breakout of the pattern.
💡With this type of trading, You should remember clearly: In a Channel Up, only open UP orders. Conversely, in Channel Down, you can only open DOWN orders.
How to Open an Order?
🔺 For a Channel Up: 🔺
Entry Point: When the price hits the support of the price channel.
Stop-Loss: At the previous position where the price touched the support.
Take-Profit: When the price hits the resistance.
If the previous order wins, the stop-loss of the following order will be the entry point of the previous order.
🔻 For a Channel Down: 🔻
Entry Point: When the price hits the resistance.
Stop-Loss: At the previous position where the price touched the resistance.
Take-Profit: When the price hits the support.
Trade After the Breakout
The trading strategy is based on the breakout point of the price channel. This is a very good signal of a trend reversal. You open an order as follows.
🔺 For a Channel Up: 🔺
Entry Point: When the candlestick breaks out of the support.
Stop-Loss: At the previous position where the price touched the resistance.
Take-Profit: When price re-touches the support levels it creates within the pattern.
🔻 For a Channel Down: 🔻
Entry Point: When the candlestick breaks out of the resistance.
Stop-Loss: At the previous position where the price touched the support.
Take-Profit: When price re-touches the resistance level it creates within the pattern.
The article is a bit long. However, I have covered everything I know when trading with price channels. Thank you for reading. Do you have any tips for trading with price channels? Please help me improve myself.
Subscribe to stay updated!🫶
Thanks for Your attention💋
Sincerely yours, Kateryna💙💛
LESSON!!!As a beginner in forex trading, there are three main basic factors you should focus on learning:
1). Understanding the Forex Market:
*). Currency Pairs: Learn about major, minor, and exotic currency pairs. Understand how currencies are quoted and the significance of the base and quote currencies.
*). Market Hours: Familiarize yourself with the forex market hours and how different sessions (e.g., London, New York, Tokyo) can affect volatility and liquidity.
*). Key Players: Understand the roles of various market participants such as central banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, and retail traders.
2). Technical Analysis:
*). Charts and Patterns: Learn how to read and interpret various types of charts (line, bar, and candlestick charts) and recognize common chart patterns.
*). Indicators: Gain knowledge about technical indicators like moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, and how they can be used to make trading decisions.
*). Support and Resistance Levels: Understand how to identify and use support and resistance levels to predict potential price movements.
3). Risk Management:
*). Leverage and Margin: Learn how leverage works in forex trading and the risks associated with it. Understand margin requirements and how to manage margin effectively.
*). Position Sizing: Understand how to determine the appropriate size of your trades based on your account balance and risk tolerance.
*). Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders: Learn the importance of setting stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk and secure profits.
Mastering these basics will provide a solid foundation for more advanced forex trading strategies and techniques.
Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens?Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens? Use Elliott wave parallel channel
This chart shows the GBP/JPY currency pair using monthly candlesticks. The advance from Sep 2011 to June 2015 can be labeled as an impulse wave (A). From that high, the pair declined in three waves labeled as wave (B) of a Zigzag A-B-C correction with an expanding diagonal characteristic in the C wave position.
As a rule, in a Zigzag rally, wave B notably terminates above the origin of wave A. When wave (C) advance of a zigzag rally is in operation, we can forecast where wave (C) might end.
We can use Elliott wave channel projection by connecting the origin of wave (A) with the end of wave (B) and then drawing a parallel line from the end of wave (A). As a guideline, the resulting channel gives us a potential target for the wave (C) endpoint.
Moreover, we can also use ratio analysis to improve the odds. As a guideline, in Zigzag formations, wave (C) commonly ends after traveling the same length as wave (A). Observe this level corresponds with the Elliott wave channel projection.
This cluster of evidence hints at wave (C) advance from Mar 2020 is in late stages and that prices are approaching a major top.
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years?
You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame.
But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets?
What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years?
Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine?
And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks?
Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics.
Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
3 Best Fibonacci Tools For Forex Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss 3 classic Fibonacci tools you must know for trading different financial markets.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement
Fib.Retracement is my favorite fib.tool. It is aimed to identify strong horizontal support and resistance levels within the impulse leg .
We draw this tool based on the high and low of the impulse (from wick to wick) and it shows us POTENTIALLY strong structure levels determined by Fibonacci numbers .
Common Fib.Retracement levels are: 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of an application of a fibonacci retracement tool based on a bearish impulse leg on EURUSD.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Extension
Fib.Extension indicates strong horizontal support and resistance levels beyond the impulse . Similar to Fib.Retracement tool, Fib.Extension is drawn relying on impulse's high and low (from wick to wick) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong structure levels where the consequent impulses may complete based on Fibonacci number.
Common Fib.Extension levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of fibonacci extension tool based on USDJPY based on a bullish impulse leg.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Channel
Fib.Channel shows strong vertical supports and resistances (trend lines) within the channel . The tool is drawn based on the trend line of a valid parallel channel (based on wicks) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong trend lines from where the market may retrace .
The trend lines within Fib.Channel rest on 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 Fib.Levels .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of a fibonacci channel on USDCHF.
Remember that Fibonacci's are simply tools in a toolbox. In order to use them properly, you need to build a trading system around them, test it and confirm its efficiency.
The 3-Step Method For High-Quality AnalysisIn this video I give you the 3-step method I use to do my analysis.
By incorporating these steps, it is also how I do my top-down analysis. You can think of it as a checklist as well.
First, I have my Bias, which determines where I believe price is drawn to. For example in the case of SMC/ICT Concepts, we observe where the liquidity is in the market and use that to frame where price is likely going to go to sooner or later.
Secondly, I have my Narrative, which is on a lower timeframe, and paints the picture of HOW price is going to form in order to initiate the move to that price target. This usually includes more engineered liquidity on lower timeframes, and manipulation to happen.
Thirdly, I have my Confirmation, which is where I want to enter a trade. This is the lowest of the three timeframes, and is the final point in which I will frame a trade setup. Usually I will look for the exact same things I look for in my Bias and Narrative, but on this timeframe. I also tend to include the factor of time, such as Killzones, Seasonality, and News Drivers.
Note that the timeframes can be anything you want them to be, and you are not restricted from moving from timeframe to timeframe. But, the important thing is to be consistent with WHERE you believe price is going, HOW you think it may get there (this can change as price forms), and again WHERE you are going to enter a trade.
- R2F
Three of the Best MACD Trading StrategiesThree of the Best MACD Trading Strategies
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is more than just a mouthful—it's a versatile trading indicator that has stood the test of time. This article unpacks the intricacies of this indicator and dives deep into three specific strategies that leverage the MACD with other powerful tools like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages. Read on to sharpen your trading skills and enhance your toolkit.
Understanding the MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is a momentum indicator developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is designed to identify changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. It’s composed of three main components: the MACD line (blue), the signal line (orange), and the histogram.
The MACD line is calculated by subtracting a long-term exponential moving average (EMA) from a short-term EMA. The signal line is a 9-day EMA of this line. When these two lines cross, it often suggests a potential entry or exit point. The histogram represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line, offering further insights into market momentum.
When creating an MACD strategy, indicators like the Stochastic and moving averages are often used. However, many also use simple price action alongside the MACD. Below, we’ll cover three strategies that use these indicators and price action to find and exploit market opportunities. If you’d like to follow along, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform, where you’ll find each tool discussed here waiting for you.
MACD Stochastic Strategy
The MACD Stochastic strategy utilises both the MACD and the Stochastic Oscillator to enhance trade decision-making. While the MACD is predominantly a trend-following momentum indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator is used to gauge overbought (above 80) or oversold (below 20) conditions. The objective of this combined MACD oscillator strategy is to look for concurring signals from both indicators within a few candles of each other, achieving more reliable entries and exits.
Entry
In a bullish entry, traders often look for the MACD line to cross above the signal line.
Concurrently, the Stochastic Oscillator should cross above 20 from an oversold area.
In a bearish entry, the MACD line should cross below the signal line. Similarly, the Stochastic Oscillator should cross below 80 from an overbought area.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are typically positioned above a nearby swing point for bearish entries and below a swing point for bullish entries.
Take Profit
Profit-taking is usually considered at nearby support levels for bearish positions and resistance levels for bullish positions.
Alternatively, some traders may opt to exit the trade when a MACD crossover in the opposite direction occurs.
MACD with Hull Moving Averages Strategy
The blending of MACD and Hull Moving Averages (HMA) aims to refine the basic MACD moving average strategy by reducing lag and improving responsiveness. This combination is often cited as one of the best MACD trading strategies, leveraging the strengths of both indicators. The Hull Moving Averages used here are the 21-period and 50-period HMAs. Just like with the MACD, traders look for a crossover event, but in this case, both from the MACD and the HMA and preferably within close proximity of each other.
Entry
For bullish prospects, traders may look for the MACD line to cross above the signal line around the same time the 21-period HMA crosses above the 50-period HMA.
Conversely, in bearish positions, the MACD line should cross below the signal line close to when the 21-period HMA crosses below the 50-period HMA.
Stop Loss
Traders often set stop losses either above or below a nearby swing point.
An alternative approach could be to place the stop loss just beyond the 50-period HMA.
Take Profit
Traders commonly consider taking profits at nearby support (short) or resistance (long) levels.
Another approach may be to close the position when an opposite crossover event occurs in the HMAs.
MACD Histogram Divergence with Candlestick Patterns Strategy
When it comes to the best MACD for day trading setups, incorporating its histogram with candlestick patterns, such as doji, hammer, and engulfing candles, can offer compelling insights. This MACD histogram strategy revolves around spotting divergences between the histogram and price action, followed by confirmation via specific candlestick formations.
Divergence Criteria
A divergence occurs when price action makes higher highs while the histogram makes lower highs, or vice versa.
Entry
Traders might seek a bullish entry on the close of a hammer or bullish engulfing candle when a bullish divergence is observed on the histogram.
For bearish entries, the close of a hammer or bearish engulfing candle following a bearish divergence is often considered.
While a MACD crossover is not essential, some traders prefer to wait for this additional confirmation.
Stop Loss
Stop-loss levels may be placed above a nearby swing point for bearish positions and below it for bullish ones. Given that a reversal has not yet been confirmed, traders may prefer a slightly wider stop loss.
Take Profit
Take-profit levels are often set at nearby support (short) or resistance (long) levels.
Another option is to exit the trade after a MACD crossover in the opposite direction occurs.
The Bottom Line
Mastering the MACD can significantly bolster your trading toolkit. By combining it with other indicators like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages, traders can refine their strategies for more nuanced market entries and exits. These methods may not be a one-size-fits-all solution, but they do offer compelling approaches worth testing. If you're eager to put these strategies into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you can access a range of tools to optimise your trading experience.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Be greedy when others are fearful - © Warren BuffettAs the cryptocurrency market gears up for a potential alt season, savvy investors are positioning themselves to capitalize on the gains of altcoins. This article will explore six promising altcoins and the significance of sector diversification in maximizing returns.
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful, Fearful When Others Are Greedy:
This timeless adage by Warren Buffett highlights the importance of contrarian investing. During alt seasons, when the market is euphoric and prices are rising, it's crucial to maintain a level head and avoid overextending. Conversely, when the market is in a downtrend and fear is prevalent, it's an opportunity to accumulate undervalued assets.
Top 6 Altcoins for Alt Season:
Dogecoin (DOGE): Forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, DOGE is poised for a breakout. The triangle's squeeze indicates a potential surge in price. Respecting the ascending trend and avoiding new lows suggests an upward breakout.
Sector: Meme Coin
Chainlink (LINK): With an accumulation period spanning 518 days, LINK is primed for a significant pump. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the potential breakout, adhering to the golden rule of accumulation. The ideal shakeout beneath the accumulation range followed by price appreciation reinforces the bullish outlook.
Sector: Oracle
Optimism (OP): Trading within an ascending channel and consistently respecting the lows, OP exhibits strong bullish momentum. The pattern and price action suggest a continuation of the uptrend.
Sector: Layer 2 Scaling Solution
Immutable X (IMX): Breaking above local highs and retesting the upper resistance trendline, IMX confirms a trend reversal to the bullish side. This price action signifies a shift in market sentiment.
Sector: NFT Marketplace
Avalanche (AVAX): Coiling within a descending wedge (bullish pattern), AVAX experienced a shakeout below a crucial support level ($9) before resuming its upward trajectory. Respecting old support levels is essential.
Sector: Layer 1 Blockchain
VeChain (VET): Epitomizing a textbook bullish run, VET adheres strictly to the ascending trend. Each cycle consists of price appreciation, accumulation, and further growth.
Sector: Supply Chain Management
Sector Diversification:
Diversifying across sectors is crucial, as different sectors tend to perform differently based on market trends and events. For instance, during periods of DeFi dominance, DeFi-focused altcoins may outperform. Conversely, when NFT mania takes hold, NFT marketplace tokens could surge.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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