Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two.
Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses.
Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see.
It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked.
The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively.
Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
Chart Patterns
Inverted Head and Shoulders: A Comprehensive GuideThe Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is a popular and reliable reversal pattern that signals a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Understanding and identifying this pattern can provide traders with profitable trading opportunities.
Anatomy of the Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern.
Left Shoulder: The price declines to a trough and subsequently rises.
Head: The price falls again, forming a lower trough.
Right Shoulder : The price rises once more before declining to a trough similar to the left shoulder.
Identifying the Pattern
To accurately identify an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, look for the following characteristics:
Three Troughs: The head should be the lowest point, with the two shoulders on either side.
Neckline: Draw a trendline connecting the peaks of the two shoulders. This line acts as a resistance level.
Breakout Confirmation
The pattern is confirmed once the price breaks above the neckline with increased volume. This breakout indicates a reversal of the previous downtrend and the start of a new uptrend.
Trading the Inverted Head and Shoulders
Entry Point
Enter a long position when the price closes above the neckline. To reduce false breakouts, consider waiting for a retest of the neckline as support.
Stop-Loss
Place the stop-loss order below the right shoulder to limit potential losses. This level provides a cushion against false breakouts and unexpected market movements.
Target Price
The target price can be estimated by measuring the distance from the head to the neckline and projecting this distance upward from the breakout point.
Example:
Example Reference image of chart ONGC on Daily Time Frame shared below
Distance from Head to Neckline: 62 points
Breakout Point: 280 points
Target Price: 342 points
Practical Example of ONGC chart
The neckline is drawn connecting the two peaks at 280 level. A breakout occurs at 280 level with increased volume and now candle closed bullish at 288 levels with Good intensity of Volumes.
Key Points to Remember
Volume: Volume should increase during the formation of the pattern, especially at the breakout point.
Timeframe: The pattern can form over various timeframes, but it is more reliable over longer periods.
Market Context: Always consider the broader market context and other technical indicators to confirm the pattern.
Conclusion
The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is a powerful tool for traders looking to capitalize on trend reversals. By understanding its structure and applying disciplined trading strategies, traders can enhance their ability to identify and profit from these patterns.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Happy Trading!
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
EBS Base Breakout SetupHey everybody got my camera working for this trade idea. Here we have the ebs stock setting up for a breakout in an uptrend and we're hoping for a bullish continuation here. I describe my entry points my stop loss and my profit target one and the logic behind them and how to position your share count so you can manage your risk and prepare to lose as much or as little money that you want if the trade goes against you every decision in this trade has meaning and logic to it that pertains to the particular stock and the setup therefore you know why you are doing everything that you're doing when trading. Let me know if you have any questions or if this is new to you or if you need help setting it up or calculating how much money you should win or lose. The only issue with this stock is that it's not in the technology sector and it's not in the communication sector so it is not in the most high performing sector right now although the healthcare sector is performing pretty decently with financials as well.
10-Year T-Note vs. 10-Year Yield Futures: Which One To Trade?Introduction:
The 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are two prominent instruments in the financial markets, offering traders unique opportunities to capitalize on interest rate movements. This video compares these two products, focusing on their key characteristics, liquidity, and the differences in point and tick values, ultimately helping you decide which one to trade.
Key Characteristics:
10-Year T-Note Futures represent a contract based on the value of U.S. Treasury notes with a 10-year maturity, while 10-Year Yield Futures are based on the yield of these notes. The T-Note Futures contract size is $100,000, while the 10-Year Yield Futures contract size is based on $1,000 per index point, reflecting a $10 DV01 (dollar value of a one basis point move).
Liquidity Comparison:
Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are highly liquid, with substantial daily trading volumes and open interest. This high liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient trade execution, providing traders with confidence in entering and exiting positions in both markets.
Point and Tick Values:
Understanding the point and tick values is crucial for effective trading. For 10-Year T-Note Futures, each tick is 1/32nd of a point, worth $31.25 per contract. The 10-Year Yield Futures have a tick value of 0.001 percent, worth $1.00 per contract. These values influence trading costs and profit potential differently and are essential for precise strategy formulation.
Margin Information:
The initial margin requirement for 10-Year T-Note Futures typically ranges around $1,500 per contract, while the maintenance margin is slightly lower. For 10-Year Yield Futures, the initial margin is approximately $500 per contract, reflecting its lower notional value and DV01. Maintenance margins for yield futures are also marginally lower, providing traders with flexible capital management options.
Trade Execution:
We demonstrate planning and placing a bracket order for both products. Using TradingView charts, we set up entry and exit points, showcasing how the different tick values and liquidity levels impact trade execution and potential outcomes.
Risk Management:
Effective risk management is vital when trading futures. Utilizing stop-loss orders and hedging techniques can mitigate potential losses. Avoiding undefined risk exposure and ensuring precise entries and exits help maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, which is essential for long-term trading success.
Conclusion:
Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures offer unique advantages. The choice depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market outlook. Watch the full video for a detailed analysis and insights on leveraging these products in your trading endeavors.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
EGO NO GO Traders’ Downfall: Six Actions to AvoidThere is NO place for ego and bravado with trading.
If it falls under your personality, you have been warned.
Do you know why?
Because ego and emotion are traders’ kryptonite.
In this piece, we’ll dive into the egotistical trader’s playbook and shine a light on six actions that could be crippling your trading game.
EGO NO GO #1: Overtrade: More is Not Always More
Overtrading is like trying to sprint a marathon; it’s unsustainable and a fast track to burnout.
You need to pace yourself or you’re going to get a spasm or a stitch.
As a trader, you’re not a machine-gun trader, firing rounds at every shadow.
You need to only look and wait for the highest probability trades.
Remember, it’s about the right trades, not just more trades.
Solution: Quality Over Quantity as I always tell my MATI Traders!
EGO NO GO #2: Revenge Trade: The Emotional Spiral
After a loss, I know it feels tempting to jump straight back into the markets in order to recover your funds.
But let’s face it…
Revenge trading is about as effective as using a leaky bucket to bail water out of a sinking ship.
Solution: Keep Cool and Carry On
Clear your head.
Take a walk, grab a beer – The market will always be there for you the next day.
And it will probably dish out even better trades.
Remember, the market doesn’t know you, and it certainly doesn’t owe you. Stick to your plan, not your pride.
EGO NO GO #3: Ignore Risk Management: The Silent Killer
If you ignore risk management, it’s like skydiving without checking your parachute.
What if you jumped and instead of a parachute you’re wearing a backback?
Don’t laugh, these things happen.
With trading you need your risk management measures:
Stop loss of less than 2%
Drawdown management when the portfolio goes down.
Risking money you can emotionally handle to lose.
Making sure of your trade size.
Checking your risk to rewards.
Ensuring you’ve protected your positions.
Solution: Plan Your Risk
Decide on your risk parameters before you enter a trade, and then—this is key—stick to them.
Your future self will thank you.
EGO NO GO #4: Dismiss Market Analysis: Gut Feelings vs. Hard Data
You also need to check the weather.
By weather I mean, look at the news events coming out for the day and week.
Is it NFP (Non Farm Payrolls)? – The day when you DON’T day trade.
Is it CPI (Consumer Price Index)? – The day you DON’T Trade
Is it FOMC where the federal committee talks and causes volatility?
Solution: Check the news events and be vigilant.
EGO NO GO #5: Blame Everything: The Pointless Game
When trades go south.
They look to blame.
They point fingers to their mentors, their strategy, themselves.
There is NO blame game with the markets.
If you followed your rules, strategies, risk to reward and everything else – You did the best of your ability for that trade.
Solution: Own your trade to Hone your trade It
Accept responsibility, learn from your mistakes, and grow stronger. It’s the only way.
EGO NO GO #6: Fail to Adapt: Evolve or Be Left Behind
The market is a beast that’s always changing.
I always say adapt or die.
Feel the general market’s environment.
Know whether it’s in a favourable or unfavourable period.
Tweak your system to improve your metrics.
Change the markets by adding or removing ones that aren’t working.
Take ego out of the analysis.
Solution: Stay Sharp, Stay Updated
FINAL WORDS:
I’m sure you already feel less egotistical when it comes to trading. And that means, this article has done it’s job.
Whenever you feel ego creeping in, remember this article save it and store it.
In fact go through all the articles that resonate, print them and store them in a file.
It will be your guide to trading well!
Let’s sum up the ego tendencies and how to avoid them…
Avoid Overtrading: Less can be more.
No Revenge Trading: Act with strategy, not emotion.
Stick to Risk Management: It’s your safety net.
Conduct Market Analysis: Never trade uninformed.
Stop the Blame: Learn and move forward.
Adapt to the Market: Evolve your strategy to stay relevant.
The chart is a battleground, revealing who got crushed!In the early days of exchange trading, there was no technical possibility to visualize market quote movements, and traders analyzed ticker tapes. The real hype and massive interest in exchange speculation owe it to the technical possibility of displaying exchange information in the form of charts with ticks, bars, candles, and other more exotic ways of displaying price movements (Renko, Kagi). This led to a rapid growth of various schools of technical and graphical analysis. Just Google it, and you'll be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of info out there. It's like, every chart can be interpreted in a million ways, and three analysts will give you four different opinions on the same chart. It's crazy!
But after 15+ years of trading, I've come to realize that the essence of graphical analysis is all about finding the "suffering" market participants. Classic patterns make it easy to spot areas of market activity and where traders are piling in. I'll give you some examples, backed by data from open sources, that'll show you just how predictable retail traders can be.
Now, I know some experienced traders might say, "Patterns don't work, and this knowledge isn't enough." But I call BS - patterns do work, and the real question is who's extracting the most value from them? Of course, interpreting market patterns is just one piece of the puzzle.
Here's an analogy: think of experienced hunters preparing for a hunt. They don't just wander around looking for prey; they identify the habitats, study the location, and track the animal's migration paths. They have a plan, limited time, and the right gear to get the job done.
It's the same with pro traders with really big money. They plan and execute their strategy, using the behavior of less-informed participants in certain "hotspots" that attract retail traders like magnets. It's simple: a a newbie sees a market situation that looks just like one from a technical analysis book, and they're like, "Ah, I've got this!"
Alright, let's take a look at the current situation with the Euro. I've got a screenshot with the average long and short positions of retail traders marked on the chart. It's a 1-hour time frame, which is probably the most popular one, right? Think about it, why is this time frame so popular? The data is from an open source, as of Friday evening. Take a minute to study this chart. What catches your eye?
Let's zoom in and add some lines and arrows. Voilà! What do we see? The average long and short positions of participants (from the open source) almost perfectly match the breakouts of local highs and lows. This is what's called "trading the breakout" in the books.
We can make an intermediate conclusion: the "bulls" were encouraged to open positions and got stuck in a losing zone, while the "bears" are celebrating their victory, as the market is favoring them and they're in a small profit. In other words, the market sentiment is bearish.
Woohoo, case closed, let's go to short the Euro now!
And yes, and no! The Euro quotes have been below the average short position of traders since June 14th, for two whole weeks, inviting everyone to start shorting. Even a blind "bull" can see it's time to switch sides). Here are some more numbers from the open source: short positions on the Euro decreased by 11.55% last week , while bearish positions grew by 8.55% . These are broker-aggregated data, no insider info here. You can find them yourself if you put in some time and effort. These numbers, as you understand, confirm our hypothesis that this "shorting invitation" didn't go unnoticed.
Now, in the context of this article, think about it: "Will the 'Hunters' take advantage of this situation?" Or will the market take us all for a profitable ride? Oh boy...
Let's look at the current situation with the Yen. It's a 1-hour chart with opened buys and sell levels marked.
What can we conclude: a massive bearish candle clearly encouraged a lot of short positions to open, while the "bulls" opened at the upper range boundary during its test, and the market is favoring them, while the bears are suffering. But what's even more important, they're not just suffering, but also reversing the market. According to open data, the number of open short positions grew by 14.09% last week . Good luck to them in this tough business! However we should remember that short positions are closed at a stop-loss by "market buy" orders, which gives an impulse for further growth.
What do I want to convey with this article, what do I want to share with you, mates?
Evaluate market sentiment through the prism of "suffering" participants - that's, in my opinion, the best indicator!
Usefully utilize information from open sources about retail positioning, there's a lot of value in it.
Try to look at the chart with the eyes of a "hunter", search for traps set. Make such analysis a necessary part of your strategy to gain an edge, without which trading on markets is like playing "roulette".
It's a journey, folks. Some get it earlier, some later, but eventually, most traders come to realize they need to "dig deeper", learn more about market mechanics, and improve their strategies. It's a painful process, but it's worth it.
So, don't give up! Get back on your feet, and try again. As 50 Cent said: Get rich or die trying!
Ultimate Trading Strategy: Reaction to Supply and Demand Levels!🔍 Identifying Potential Buy or Sell Zones: In this step, you need to identify the zones that are likely to react and wait for the price to potentially reach them. ⏳📊
🌟 With the reaction to the first area, a buy trade is activated. 🌟
📝 Confirmations:
📉 Reaction to the expected area – Watch for a price movement hitting our anticipated zone!
🛠️ Formation of a combined hammer pattern – Look out for this powerful reversal signal!
📈 Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern – A strong indicator of upward momentum!
🔍 Trading Tips:
💡 High-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the candlestick pattern. At least twice the spread to ensure you're covered! 📏🔒
💡 Lower-risk stop-loss location:
👉 Place it below the expected area. Again, at least twice the spread for extra safety! 📏🔒
💰 Take-profit strategy:
👉 Base it on risk management mathematics, such as risk-reward ratios of 2, 4, and 6.
👉 Alternatively, observe reactions to past market areas, especially near important market highs and lows. 📊📈
🎯 Entry point strategies:
👉 Enter at the close of the confirmation candle.
👉 Or, set a limit order around 50% of the confirmation candle for a bigger volume opportunity! 📉📈
🌟 Buying in Two Phases: A Smart and Exciting Strategy! 🌟
🔹 Phase One:
When you reach a profit of twice the risk, exit the trade. Why? Because the Asian high has been hunted and the candlestick formed has a long upper shadow. 🌄💹
💡 Analysis:
The price hasn’t reached other zones yet and has risen in reaction to the first expected zone. Therefore, we expect a pullback and continued upward movement. 💪📈 So, I’ll place a second buy trade. 🚀💵
🔍 Confirmations for the Second Buy Trade:
A double bottom has formed, marked with an X. ❌❌
A small hammer candlestick has swept the double bottom. 🔨
A long positive shadow candlestick has swept the bottom and reacted to a small order block on the left. 🌟
💡 Tips for the Second Buy Trade:
Enter at the close of the long-shadowed doji candlestick or place a stop limit order above the long-shadowed doji candlestick. 📉📈
The stop loss should be below this candlestick. 📏🔒
🔹 Phase Two:
Next, the price has reached an expected reaction zone from where we expected a price drop. 🌐💡
🔍 Confirmations for the Sell Trade:
Reaction to the expected zone. 🔍
An inverse hammer candlestick reacting to the zone. 🔨
💡 Tips for the Sell Trade:
The entry point should be in a candlestick with a negative signal indicating a price drop. This hammer candlestick can indicate a decline. 📉🔻
The target can be a reward of 2 or the last price bottom. 🎯💰
The stop loss should preferably be behind the expected zone. 📏🔒
🔥 Important Points!!:
Since the price hasn’t deeply penetrated the zones, there’s a chance it might go higher or even mitigate this zone twice, ultimately turning it into a pullback for a further price rise. 🚀📈
Continuing on, the price reached the upper zone area.
We expected a price drop from this zone, but it reached at 03:15,
which is outside our trading session. However, we could have traded on it.
🔍 Sell Confirmations:
The price has reached the expected zone.
An inverse hammer candlestick pattern.
💡 Interesting Fact:
If you had placed a limit order around the midpoint of the previous two zones,
you would have profited by now. So, for this zone, you can also place
a limit order around 50% of it.
Continuing further, other zones have formed below that could be useful
for new trades.
✨ Successful Sell Trade Achieved, Reaching a Reward of 4 Times the Risk.
📉 During the session continuation, the trend line was broken, triggering an upward price pullback.
🔹 Now, at the beginning of the session, we have a new zone, likely a selling order placement area. We're taking the risk on this zone. This time, we can place the trade around 50% of it. 🚀💼
🔥 Alright, what's your take now? 🔥
🌟 Is the price reacting to this level or not? 🌟
🚀📈 or 📉💥
Where are the upper zones located?
What do you think? 🤔💬
Debunking Al Brook's 90 Minute Theory (81% Win Rate Strategy)Al Brook's states that on the E-Mini S&P500 after the first 90 minutes, we have a 90% chance of seeing the high or low of the day. I dug through the data myself from 6-28-2024 to 5-17-2024. Below (and in the video) is what I found.
First, I changed my timeframe to 90 minutes to make this task super easy. Then recorded all the of the 90 minute ranges within an excel sheet. This was not required for the research but, I had other plans for my blog. Then I looked to see what days the high and low were breached. These days were counted as days that disproved Al's theory. There were 12 where the high and low were breached.
17/29 = ~59%
There you have it, 59% the time the 90 minute range is either the high or the low of the day. But, what could you do with this information?
Since I already calculated the ranges, I had a good starting place. I tried to take the full average 90 minute range (22pts) and 1:1 Reward to Risk Ratio (R/R) indicators and place the entry at the closing price of the 90 minute bar. I didn't see any pattern that made since and the losers were considerably bigger than the winners. After making this video, I realized I should have only used half of the range. I think there is still work to be done here.
Anyway, I went through each opening range and looked for the distance of breakouts they had before turning around. I still used the R/R indicator for this but, that was just to get a measurement of points. At this point (no pun), I knew I could take an average of points from the range breakout and apply them to make a strategy.
If the original data says 59% chance we have seen the high or low of the day. That means if the next bar breaks the high or low of the range that we still haven't seen the high or low yet. A strategy with a 59% win rate really only needs a 1:1 R/R (without fees and commissions) to be profitable. So, I measured out 26.50 (this was the average breakout) on the R/R indicator for both a profit target and a stop loss. The entry was the first break of either the high or low.
The results were about 50/50 but, the total points collected was around 81.50pts over 29 days. Using a pretty mindless set and forget strategy. The one caveat was that positions that didn't hit stops or targets had to be closed out at EOD.
Well, 50/50 and 81 points of profit isn't bad but, what if we had a string of big loser and the strategy ended up 40/60 or something? Then we would be screwed. So, I applied a turtle trading technique where I only entered after a loser. If I won, I had to wait for another loser to appear. I couldn't trade a string of winners.
This is where the money shot is! There were a total of 11 trades when applying the turtle method. 9 of the 11 trades were winnings for a whopping 81% and 136pts over 29 days. What a set and forget strategy, huh!?
Ok Joe, but what about Al Brook's and his theory? Well, we have a small sample size here. Its a great starting place. I don't know what Al's sample size was nor do I know the timeframe in which this theory was developed. Markets are forever changing and I think that may be the case for this theory.
Opportunities that make moneyOne day you will regret that you didn't buy this precious diamond at these auction prices, and the future will be one of the advertising currencies of the X pages, which you knew was cheap, but you didn't buy it.
How to use Fibonacci Retracement ?‼️ Forex traders use Fibonacci retracements to pinpoint where to place orders for market entry, taking profits and stop-loss orders. Fibonacci levels are commonly used in forex trading to identify and trade off support and resistance levels. After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these trend lines . Usually the price retracts to 50% or until OTE (0.618, 0.705, 0.79) before another impulse movement occurs.
What is Confluence ?✅ Confluence refers to any circumstance where you see multiple trade signals lining up on your charts and telling you to take a trade. Usually these are technical indicators, though sometimes they may be price patterns. It all depends on what you use to plan your trades. A lot of traders fill their charts with dozens of indicators for this reason. They want to find confluence — but oftentimes the result is conflicting signals. This can cause a lapse of confidence and a great deal of confusion. Some traders add more and more signals the less confident they get, and continue to make the problem worse for themselves.
✅ Confluence is very important to increase the chances of winning trades, a trader needs to have at least two factors of confluence to open a trade. When the confluence exists, the trader becomes more confident on his negotiations.
✅ The Factors Of Confluence Are:
Higher Time Frame Analysis;
Trade during London Open;
Trade during New York Open;
Refine Higher Time Frame key levels in Lower
Time Frame entries;
Combine setups;
Trade during High Impact News Events.
✅ Refine HTF key levels in LTF entries or setups for confirmation that the HTF analysis will hold the price.
HTF Key Levels Are:
HTF Order Blocks;
HTF Liquidity Pools;
HTF Market Structure.
Market Structure Identification !!Hello traders!
I want to share with you some educational content.
✅ MARKET STRUCTURE .
Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Structure
Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual structure
Price Action Fluency As A Second LanguageThis is the most important educational video I have shared.
Reading price action is akin to acquiring a second or foreign language. Just as fluency in a new language provides fluency and articulation, mastering price action offers traders a nuanced understanding of market dynamics. One would not expect to learn a new language in a short amount of time. It often takes years while keeping up the practice for the rest of ones life. Price action is no different.
There are literally hundreds of subtleties revealing their secrets to the ones who 𓁼 . Indicators obstructing the view of plain truth is most often a useless distraction. It's not just about recognizing patterns; it's about developing a foundational understanding that allows for intuitive and informed trading decisions.
Building this skill set enables traders to interpret market 'sentiments' and react more adeptly to volatility, much like a fluent speaker picks up on subtle nuances in conversation. Thus, learning to 'speak' the language of price action is essential for anyone serious about trading, as it equips them with the tools to navigate and succeed in the complex world of financial markets.
How to Read the MACD Indicator and Use It in Your TradingTechnical analysis is a vast field with thousands of indicators, which may be confusing to those among us who are just starting out. In this Idea, we look at one of the most popular indicators and also one of the easiest ones to fire up and start using from Day 1.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD is arguably the most widely used indicator that can get slapped on virtually every chart out there. The indicator’s full name is Moving Average Convergence Divergence, but you don’t need to remember that.
If you need to take away one thing, it’s this: MACD is easy to read. Here’s how to do it.
Technical Side of Things
Add the MACD in your chart of choice — any chart, any time frame.
You’ll see three default numbers used to set it up — 12, 26, 9.
The 12 is the moving average of the previous 12 bars (also called faster moving average).
The 26 is the moving average of the previous 26 bars (also called slower moving average).
The 9 is the moving average of the difference between the two averages in play.
Next, you see that there are two lines that move up and down and cross each other occasionally. The two lines are:
The MACD line: the difference between the two moving averages and the “faster line”.
The Signal line: the moving average of the MACD line and the “slower line”.
Because the two lines measure price changes at different speeds, the faster one (MACD) will always run ahead and react before the slower one (Signal) catches up.
How to Trade with MACD
If all that sounds a bit complex, here’s the gist of it:
Faster line leads, slower line follows.
Faster line crosses slower line to the downside — a downward trend may be forming.
Faster line crosses slower line to the upside — an upward trend may be forming.
Technically, whenever a new trend is shaping up, the slower line should confirm it by following the faster line. And that happens when the two cross over. The way to potentially spot new trading opportunities is to look for the crossover.
This, in a nutshell, is how to read the MACD indicator and use it to help you become a more profitable trader. There's a whole plethora of MACD examples in action — dive right in !
Let us know your thoughts and experience with the MACD in the comments below!
Fear and Greed Index: Decoding Crypto Market Sentiment!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and emotions can often drive trading decisions. The Fear and Greed Index attempts to quantify these emotions, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment at a given time.
What is the Fear and Greed Index?
The Fear and Greed Index is a composite score ranging from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
It analyzes several data points to arrive at a single value:
Volatility:
Higher price swings indicate greater fear, while lower volatility suggests a calmer market.
Market Momentum:
Rapid price increases point to greed, while sustained price drops signal fear.
Social Media Sentiment:
Analyzing the tone of social media discussions about cryptocurrency can reveal fear or greed.
Survey Data:
Polls and surveys gauging investor sentiment are also factored in.
Dominance:
The market share of Bitcoin (BTC) relative to other cryptocurrencies is considered.
How to Interpret the Fear and Greed Index:
0-24: Extreme Fear: This indicates a potentially oversold market where investors are panicking. It might be a buying opportunity for long-term investors with a high-risk tolerance.
25-49: Fear: The market is cautious, and prices could go either way.
50-74: Greed: Investor sentiment is becoming optimistic, potentially leading to price increases. However, be cautious of entering a potentially overbought market.
75-100: Extreme Greed: Euphoria reigns, and prices could be inflated. This might be a good time to take profits or exercise caution before entering new positions.
Is the Fear and Greed Index Manipulated?
Can people mess with it? Kinda. They might try to fake positive social media stuff to make the index look more greedy than it is. Also, the way the index weighs different things can be tweaked a bit.
But here's the thing: There's a lot of data going into the score, so it's not super easy to manipulate. Plus, everyone knows how it works, so investors can take it with a grain of salt.
The Fear and Greed Index at 47 (Neutral)
With a current score of 47, the Fear and Greed Index suggests a neutral market sentiment. Investors are neither overly fearful nor excessively greedy. This could indicate a period of consolidation or a wait-and-see approach before the market makes its next move.
Remember:
The Fear and Greed Index is just one data point among many. Always conduct your own research and employ a comprehensive trading strategy before making any investment decisions.
Paper Trading Challenge: Which Strategy Did the Best, Winner is The winner has now been decided! In this thrilling paper trading battle, we put four powerful trading strategies to the test: Harmonics Trading Strategy, Sentiment Trading Strategy, RSAI Blueprint Strategy, and Market Structure Strategy.
Throughout this episode, we:
Explained the fundamentals of each strategy.
Demonstrated real-time application of each trading approach.
Tracked and analyzed trades executed by each strategy.
Compared performance metrics including win/loss ratio, average return, and overall profitability.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this video offers valuable insights into the practical application of these popular trading techniques. Watch till the end to see which strategy emerges victorious and to learn tips and tricks you can incorporate into your own trading practice.
🔔 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading strategy battles and tutorials!
Why you need to have rules in your trading careerHello,
The importance of rules cannot be underestimated in any business. This must not be different in trading/investing since it must be viewed at all times as a business.
Below are my rules as a wave trader. Wave trading is a trading strategy that combines technical analysis with Elliott Wave Theory to identify and predict future market movements. This approach involves analyzing market price patterns to understand the cyclical nature of market trends and capitalize on these patterns for trading opportunities. Below is an example of how markets move in waves
Rules are very important (Our trading rules)
Identify Impulse & Correction
The first step in trading is to identify the impulse and correction phases in the market. An impulse phase is characterized by strong, directional price movement, indicating a clear trend. Corrections, on the other hand, are smaller, counter-trend movements that typically follow an impulse. By recognizing these phases, you can better understand the market's structure and prepare for potential trading opportunities. Below is an example of impulses & corrections identified
Identify the Pattern Formations
Once you have identified the impulse and correction, the next step is to look for specific pattern formations. These patterns, such as head and shoulders, double tops, or triangles, provide clues about future price movements. Understanding and recognizing these formations can significantly enhance your ability to predict market direction and make informed trading decisions. Below are patterns identified that can be tradeable
Most of these patterns can nowadays be identified for you using Tradingview under indicators, metrics & strategies.
Identify Entry Points
After identifying the patterns, the next crucial step is to pinpoint entry points. This involves determining the optimal moment to enter a trade based on your analysis of the market. Entry points should be chosen carefully to maximize potential gains while minimizing risk. Look for confirmations, such as breakouts from patterns or specific technical indicators, to ensure a higher probability of success. Below is an example with a risk free entry
We shall be looking in another post on different types of entries.
Look for Targets
Setting targets is essential for effective trading. Targets help you establish your profit goals for each trade and ensure that you remain disciplined in your approach. These targets can be based on various factors, such as previous support and resistance levels, Fibonacci extensions, or measured moves from the identified patterns. Clear targets allow you to exit trades strategically and lock in profits.
Below is our clear target for the entry we made with a clear stop loss as well
Look for Exits in Case the Trade Doesn't Go Your Way
Not all trades will go as planned, so it's vital to have exit strategies in place for unfavorable scenarios. This involves setting stop-loss levels to limit potential losses and protect your capital. By defining these exits beforehand, you can remove emotional decision-making from your trading process and adhere to a systematic approach, ensuring long-term success and sustainability in your trading business.
I trust that these rules can help you in your trading journey. You can think of having them written somewhere. That way you can look at them & follow them for each trade you make.
All the best
Get EducatedSimple but important levels and concept.
Black Arrow = Resistance
Blue Arrow = Support
there are two parallel lines. the upper parallel line has been acting as both support and resistance shown with arrows. right now this upper trendline is acting as resistance and the next support is the lower trend line which is around 56k-58k, which means price has broken below support and we must fall to the next level of support, which is the lower trend line, so before listening to scammers and crypto moonboys, have a look at these levels. i dont care what you do with them, i just know youll need this info.
Analysing a Wedge Within a WedgeTitle bar: NR7: Harness the Power of Price Compression
Content:
Imagine having a tool in your trading arsenal that can help to predict expansive directional price movement with remarkable accuracy. The NR7 pattern , though often overlooked, offers this very capability. Let's delve into the power of NR7 and how it can applied to real-world trading scenarios.
What is NR7?
NR7 stands for “Narrowest Range 7.” It identifies a session where the trading range (the difference between the highest and lowest prices) is the narrowest compared to the previous seven sessions. This term was introduced by Toby Crabel in his classic book, Day Trading With Short-term Price Patterns and Opening-range Breakout. Crabel's work emphasised statistical relationships between the size of the prior days range and effective conditions for short-term trading, making NR7 a crucial pattern for price action traders.
NR7 Pattern: Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why is NR7 So effective?
The NR7 pattern leverages the cyclical nature of price compression and expansion. Markets often go through periods of low volatility (price compression) followed by high volatility (price expansion). Recognising these cycles can provide traders with significant advantages. Here's why this is important for trading:
Predicting Trend Days: An NR7 condition sets the market up for potential trend days. Following an NR7 day, there is a higher probability that the next session will have a larger than normal range and more directional intraday action. This helps traders anticipate significant moves.
Timing Entries: By identifying periods of price compression, traders can time their entries more effectively. Entering trades as the market transitions from low volatility to high volatility can create trade setups that have attractive levels of risk-to-reward.
The Potential for Multi-Day Expansion
An NR7 pattern doesn't just signal potential moves for the following day; it can also precede multi-day expansions. When a market breaks out of a narrow range, the subsequent move can extend over several days. This provides opportunities not only for intraday traders but also for swing traders looking to capitalize on extended trends.
NR7 Pattern’s Leading to Multi-Day Expansion: Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Combining NR7 with Other Indicators
While effective on its own, the NR7 pattern becomes even more effective when combined with other technical indicators. Here are a few ways to enhance its use:
Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying key support and resistance levels can help set realistic targets and stop-loss levels. A breakout from an NR7 pattern that also clears a significant resistance level can indicate a strong move.
Keltner Channels: Keltner Channels wrap 2.5 ATR’s (average true ranges) around a 20 period exponential moving average (basis). NR7 day’s that form near the basis of the Keltner Channel can often lead to a break into the upper or lower channel.
Compression Patterns: NR7 day’s can often be part of multi-day compression patterns such as bull flags, ascending triangles, and wedge patterns. Always view the NR7 day within the context of the bigger picture pattern.
Momentum Indicators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can help gauge the strength and sustainability of the breakout. If these indicators are in alignment with the breakout direction, it adds another layer of confirmation.
Example: FTSE 100
Before: FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
The FTSE 100 forms two consecutive NR7 daily candles beneath a well-defined area of resistance. Collectively the candles are part of a small ‘bull flag’ pattern which is forming near the basis of the Keltner Channel, and the RSI indicator is holding above 50.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
After: FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
In the days that followed, the FTSE 100 index moved higher – breaking out of the NR7 ranges, the bull flag, and above resistance. The breakout saw the RSI indicator surge above 70 and prices push into the upper Keltner Channel.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
The NR7 pattern is an effective yet simple tool that has the potential to enhance your trading strategy. By recognising periods of price compression and anticipating subsequent expansions, traders can position themselves for potential trend days and multi-day moves. Combining NR7 with other technical indicators can provide additional confirmation and improve the accuracy of your trades.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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