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Wave Analysis

How to use Williams Alligator Indicator in crypto trading?You have probably heard about Alligator, indicator which is used by top crypto traders. This powerful tool can increase performance of every cryptocurrency trading strategy and help you to make money on the market. Alligator gives us the precise answer if now price is in impulsive or reactive wave. This knowledge is very useful in building your own crypto trading strategies or even in automated trading bot strategies. Even if you use grid bot strategy Alligator can increase your return on investment because it’s vital to set up grid bot in reactive wave and sideways movements. What is the beast Alligator, let’s have a deep dive into this topic today! What is Alligator? Alligator is the best indicator for trend detection. It consist of three moving averages which are called jaw, teeth and lips. Moving averages are frequently used in algorithmic trading bots. They can be exponential, smoothed or weighted depending on particular crypto trading algorithm, but we will use smoothed moving averages (SMA). Jaw (blue line) - 13 period SMA shifted 8 bars is the future. This is the balance lie of the current time frame, for example 1D Teeth (red line) - 8 period SMA shifted 5 bars in the future. This is balance line of lower degree time frame, for example 4h Lips (green line) - 5 period SMA shifted 3 bars in the future. This is balance line of two times lower degree time frame, for example 1h Please, be careful when you use Alligator on different cryptocurrency trading platforms. Check the correct settings and moving average type. On TradingView it’s correct, don’t worry! Trend detection with Alligator. 
The main Alligator’s feature is the detection the trending markets and markets which are about to explode in any side. This powerful tool can enhance your crypto trading algorithm if you use it in the correct way. On the ATOM price chart you can see the example of an Alligator. As you can see it has two conditions: sleeping and hungry. Sleeping Alligator is when all lines are crossing each other and the price. This period of time can takes up to 80% of time. This is the market cycle stage where you shall avoid any trading and be prepared for the trending market Hungry Alligator is when after a long period of consolidation price chose the trend direction. It’s an impulsive move. Alligator’s mouth is widely opened and do not crosses the price. It’s very important to distinguish the trending market because only this type of a market gives you opportunity for the fast and huge profit. Otherwise, in the range bounded market you don’t have enough space for price to make profit for you. Most of stop losses occur while Alligator is sleeping. Another one very useful hint for you. If you use Elliott waves analysis. You don’t need to understand in which wave market is now. You just jump into the impulses and avoid corrections. How to trade with Alligator Here is the most interesting part. How to start crypto trading using Alligator? Our basic strategy is to wait when the price will create the first fractal above the Alligator’s mouth and place conditional order to buy one tick above the fractal’s top. We will discuss fractals in details next time. Now you have to understand how to use Alligator. Another one hint from our experience is to use fractals only when Alligator has been sleeping for a long time, like you see on the BTC chart. After long sleep and fractal breakout Bitcoin showed the greatest bull run in the history. Let’s notice where we should close trade. Almost at the top! When price started showing weakness we don’t need to be in the market anymore. Using this strategy on 1W time frame you can hold assets during entire bull run and sell then before bear market. Fantastic! Isn’t it? Conclusion In this article we discussed how you can implement Alligator indicator in your trading routine. This indicator will help you to avoid boring market when you can only lose money and catch every big move. Moreover you can use even sideways market detection if you use cryptocurrency trading bot which earns money in range bounded market. For sure this in not the only one strategy using Alligator. Next time we enhance our approach with other tools and see in details how Alligator improve their profitability. Moreover, soon we will live stream where practice trading with Alligator. See you next time!

 Best regards, Skyrex Team
Education
by Skyrexio
17
📍Part #6, FLAT - Corrective Waves-Simple-Sideways corrections.👩🏻‍💻Hello! In this lecture, we will cover one of the options for corrective cycles, namely Flat. Let's now look at the 'flat' separately as a stand-alone correctional structure. I remind you, 'flat' and 'plane' are essentially the same thing. So, the 'flat' always has a three-wave structure, and it looks like this: 3-3-5. That is, you can identify it by the third wave "C", which always has a five-wave structure. But it can also be a Ending diagonal. And all this will be within the scope of a regular 'flat' or 'plane'. If we draw a line from the base of wave A and the maximum of wave "B", and then also draw a line or level from the end of wave "A" and the end of wave "C", we will get parallel lines, which is exactly what the name Flat hints. And this wave "B" should roll back approximately 90% of wave "A" for everything to look nice. But not always, because there is also an expanded 'flat' and a running 'flat', whichever you prefer. Well then. Let's look at the main rules and guiding norms for flats. ✅General rules✅ 📍A flat always subdivides into three waves. 📍Wave "A" is always a zigzag, flat or combination. 📍Wave "B" is always a zigzag. 📍Wave "C" is always an impulse or a ending diagonal. ✅General guidelines✅ 📍Wave "A" is usually a zigzag. ✅Regular Flat✅ Rules 📍Wave "B" never goes beyond beyond the start of wave "A". 📍Wave "B" always retraces at least 90 percent of wave "A". 📍Wave "C" always ends past the end of wave "A". Guidelines 📍The rarest type of flat correction. ✅Expanded Flat✅ Rules 📍Wave "B" always ends after the start of wave "A". 📍Wave "C" always ends past the end of wave "A". Guidelines 📍Wave "B" usually retraces 123.6 or 138.2% of wave "A", less often — 161.8%. 📍Wave "C" is often equal to 161.8% of wave "A", less often — 261.8%. 📍The most common type of flat correction. ✅Running Flat✅ Rules 📍Wave "B" always ends after the start of wave "A". 📍Wave "C" never goes beyond the end of wave "A". Guidelines 📍Within such a flat wave "B" should end well above the origin of wave "A" and that means wave "C" might reflect a 61.8% or even a 100% relationship to wave "A". 📍A running flat indicates that the forces in the direction of the larger trend at next higher degree are powerful. 📍Wave "B" is usually no more than twice the length of wave "A". Keep in mind that a running flat is rare. Thank you for your attention! There will be another lecture next week! Don't miss it! 🔔Links to other lessons in related ideas.🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
1
Mind the Gap: How to Trade Price GapsThe Power and Beauty of Price Gaps Price gaps represent a clear imbalance in supply and demand, making them one of the purest representations of momentum in financial markets. These gaps occur when there is a significant disparity between the closing price of one period and the opening price of the next, indicating a sudden surge in buying or selling pressure. How to Trade Price Gaps: 3 Different Strategies 1. Gap & Go: Description: This strategy involves trading in the direction of the gap, anticipating that the momentum will continue. Execution: Enter trades as soon as the market opens, aiming to capture the initial momentum surge. Timeframe: Typically applied on shorter timeframes, such as intraday charts. Risk Management: The gap can be used for stop less shelter, hence stops can be placed above (below) the gap. Example: Tesla (TSLA) 5min Candle Chart In this example, Tesla gaps lower at the open – breaking below a key level of support and signalling the breakdown of a sideways range. The gap follows through to the downside during the remainder of the trading session. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Gap Fill: Description: In contrast to the Gap and Go strategy, this approach involves fading the initial price movement and trading in the opposite direction of the gap. Execution: Wait for price to retrace back to pre-gap levels before entering trades, anticipating that the gap will eventually be filled. Timeframe: Can be applied on various timeframes, depending on the magnitude of the gap and market conditions. Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders to manage risk, as price may continue to move against the trade. Example: Barclays (BARC) Hourly Candle Chart Barclays gap above key resistance on the hourly candle chart. The gap is filled and broken resistance turns to support prior to the uptrend resuming. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. First Pullback: Description: This strategy combines elements of both Gap and Go and Gap Fill, focusing on entering trades after the initial momentum surge but waiting for a pullback or consolidation before entry. Execution: Wait for the first pullback or consolidation after the gap before entering trades in the direction of the prevailing momentum. Timeframe: Suitable for both shorter and longer timeframes, depending on the magnitude of the gap and market dynamics. Risk Management: Utilise stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements and adjust position sizing based on volatility. Example: Arm Holdings (ARM) Hourly Candle Chart Arm’s share price puts in a large price gap which breaks decisively above a key level of resistance on the hourly candle chart. Given the size of the gap, optimal entry requires waiting for the market pullback. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Additional Factors to Consider Catalyst Behind the Gap: Look for stock-specific news events that recalibrate market expectations, such as earnings surprises or changes in outlook. Mechanical events like dividends or corporate actions are less likely to sustain momentum. Size of the Gap: Larger gaps indicate stronger momentum but also carry a higher risk of mean reversion. Assess the magnitude of the gap relative to historical price action and volatility. Levels Broken: Consider the significance of key support and resistance levels broken by the gap, as they may influence the strength and direction of the price movement. Prevailing Trend: Analyse the prevailing trend before the gap and assess whether the gap aligns with the overall market direction. By incorporating these factors into your analysis and selecting the most suitable strategy based on market conditions, you can effectively trade price gaps and capitalise on momentum opportunities in the financial markets. Remember to exercise proper risk management and adapt your approach as market conditions evolve. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Capitalcom
1
Swing Mapping Part 3: Trade Management StrategiesWelcome to Swing Mapping Part 3, where we delve into three different approaches to trade management using swing mapping methods. Trade management always represents a trade-off between taking profits early and letting winning trades run. There is no perfect solution, but by understanding different approaches, traders can tailor their strategies to their risk tolerance and market conditions. 1. Aggressive Approach: Exit on Failure at Swing High (Low) The aggressive approach involves exiting a trade when the market fails to hold above a swing high (swing low if short). Method: Once you’ve entered the trade (long), continue to map the swings highs as defined in Swing Mapping Part 1. Should the market fail to break and hold above the swing high, a trader using this strategy may close their trade. This strategy aims for quick profits without giving back gains, capitalising on short-term market movements. Traders employing this strategy often prioritise locking in profits swiftly, especially in volatile or uncertain market conditions. However, by exiting at the first sign of resistance, traders may miss out on potential larger gains if the market continues to move in their favour. Positives and Negatives: Positive: Quick profits may allow for rapid capitalisation on short-term price movements. Positive: Avoids giving back gains by exiting at the earliest indication of a potential reversal. Negative: Potential for leaving profits on the table if the market continues to trend favourably after the exit signal. Example: EUR/USD 1hr: Exit on Failure at Swing High This example on the hourly candle chart illustrates the active approach of taking small profits following failures at a swing high. The first entry takes a retest of support and exits as the market fails to break above prior swing resistance. The second entry then takes a breakout above the swing highs and the aggressive exit approach works well as the market fakes out at swing highs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Passive Approach: Exit on a Break Below Swing Low Contrary to its name, the passive approach still requires active monitoring of the market. This strategy involves exiting a trade when the market breaks below a swing low, indicating a potential reversal or loss of momentum. Method: Once you’ve entered the trade (long), continue to map the swing lows as defined in Swing Mapping Part 1. Should the market break and close below a swing low, a trader using this strategy may close their trade. While this approach provides a more conservative exit compared to the aggressive approach, it may result in giving back some profits gained during the trade. Traders employing this strategy often prioritise running winning trades over taking quick profits – pairing well with trend following entry techniques. Positives and Negatives: Positive: Gives winning trades more time to run and allows for pullbacks. Positive: Provides a conservative exit strategy, minimising the risk of significant drawdowns. Negative: By definition this strategy will result in giving back profits as the market retraces. Example: S&P 500 5min: Exit on a Break Below Swing Low This example is an intra-day trend continuation trade on the S&P 500 5min candle chart. The entry setup was a simple breakout above a cluster of swing highs in-line with the prevailing trend. We can see that whilst we had several stalls at swing highs, taking a more passive approach and using mapped swing lows worked well when managing this trade. The trade was closed when the market broke and closed below a mapped swing low. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Predictive Approach: Place a Limit Order at Key Swing Resistance (Support) We mentioned in Swing Mapping Part 1 that not all swings are equal. The more bars either side of the swing high or low, the larger the peak or trough in the market – the more significant the turning point. These more significant swings can be used as profit targets. Method: Prior to entering your trade, identify a key swing on your chart – one that has not been broken for a large number of bars. A trader using this strategy would place a limit order to take profits at the highest close prior to the key swing. This strategy allows traders to set a predefined target for profit-taking, reducing the need for continuous monitoring of the market. By setting a fixed order, traders can automate their exit strategy and focus on other aspects of their trading plan. However, the challenge lies in accurately predicting price targets, as objectives may not always align with market movements. With this in mind, this approach can work in tandem with either the aggressive or passive swing exit methods outlined above. Positives and Negatives: Positive: Fixed order placement enables traders to "set and forget" their exit strategy, reducing emotional decision-making. Positive: Allows you to define your risk/reward prior to entering a trade. Negative: Objectives may not always align with market movements, leading to missed opportunities or premature exits if the target is not reached. Example: Tesla Daily: Place a Limit Order at Key Swing Support Here’s an example of the key swing limit order approach to managing trades. Each entry is a short fakeout entry setup that we discuss in depth in Swing Mapping Part 2. We identify the nearest key swing level that we believe the trade could reach. A limit order is then placed at the lowest close nearest the key swing level. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary Swing mapping can help you gain a deep understanding of price action and reduces reliance on lagging indicators. It allows you to quickly analyse the strengths of different markets, pinpoint precise entry levels and manage trades in a dynamic way that quickly adapts to changing market conditions. Now you’ve reached the end of this mini-series on swing mapping, we hope you will feel confident enough to put some of the techniques into practice. Happy swing mapping! Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Capitalcom
Strategy: The 1.61 Head Fake Strategy. The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend. This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals. When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC. Absolute highs and lows can also be made with this 1.61 head fake. Breaking of the 2.20 fib triggers failure of this strategy.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
Strategy: 76 Correction Trend Continuation. The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements. It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg. This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a big ABC correction. The strategy aims to pick up trades into the "C" point in such a correction. With a default minimum risk:reward of 1:3 the strategy is expected to breakeven on win rates of 35% or higher.
NYSE:LOWEducation
by holeyprofit
2
Indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategyI published 3 indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. For each indicator, I have added a visual and detailed description in English and Russian. In this post I will briefly describe these indicators and how I use them together. AFDSA indicator (Alligator + Fractals + Divergent & Squat Bars + Signal Alerts) Includes Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals, Divergent Bars, Market Facilitation Index, Highest and Lowest Bars, maximum or minimum peak of the Awesome Oscillator, and signal alerts based on Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy: Bullish and Bearish Divergent Bar Signal + Squat Bar + Green Bar + Fake Bar + Awesome Oscillator Color Change + AO Divergence. Crossing the green line (Lips) of an open Alligator. Formation of a fractal. Signal about the breakdown of the last upper or lower fractal. Signal about the appearance of a new maximum or minimum peak of AO in the interval of 140 bars from the last bar. I also added an Alligator display for the higher timeframe, for example, if the chart timeframe is 1 hour, then the higher timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the higher timeframe will be 1 day, etc. AOE Oscillator (Awesome Oscillator + Bars count lines + EMA Line) Includes the Awesome Oscillator with two vertical lines at a distance of 100 and 140 bars from the last bar to determine the third Elliott wave by the maximum peak of AO in the interval from 100 to 140 bars according to Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. Additionally, a faster EMA line is displayed. I also added display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line if the Moving Average Line values (method, length and source) are equal to the Awesome Oscillator values in the indicator settings. For example, if the chart timeframe is 1 day, then the lower timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the lower timeframe will be 1 hour, etc. VBCHL indicator (Visible bars count on chart + highest/lowest bars, max/min AO) The indicator displays the number of visible bars on the screen, including the prices of the highest and lowest bars, the maximum or minimum value of the Awesome Oscillator. The values change dynamically when scrolling or changing the scale of the chart, but with a delay of several seconds, so this feature is included in a separate indicator so as not to slow down the work of other indicators. Indicator settings In the AFDSA indicator I use the following settings: By default, the Squat Bar is colored blue, and all other bars are colored to match the Awesome Oscillator color, except for the Fake bars, which are colored with a lighter AO color. But I also enable the display of "Green" Divergent bars in the "Green Bars > Show" field. I enable the display of Alligator for higher timeframes in the "Alligator for higher timeframe > Enable" field. In the indicator style settings, I disable the display of the highest and lowest bars, maximum and minimum AO peak labels, because these labels are also displayed by the VBCHL indicator depending on the number of visible bars in the chart window. Only after opening a position, I enable all additional alerts in the “Enable all additional alerts” field (after changing this field, you need to re-create the alert for the current chart): crossing the green line of an open Alligator, formation of a fractal, appearance of a new maximum or minimum AO peak. In the settings of the AOE oscillator, I enable the display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line, setting the same values in the fields for the Moving Average Line (method, length and source) and Awesome Oscillator. In the VBCHL indicator settings, I only enable the simple display text style for labels in the "Simple display text style for labels" field. As a result, when analyzing the current chart, I immediately see all the signals on the chart, the location of the bars relative to the Alligator on the higher timeframe and changes in the Awesome Oscillator on the lower timeframe. And thanks to the VBCHL indicator, I quickly select the desired timeframe for analyzing the 5-wave Elliott impulse, focusing on the interval of 140 bars, and immediately see whether there is divergence between the maximum AO peak and the following lower AO peak in this interval.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by grigorykov
3
📍Part 5: Corrective Waves - Simple - Triangle.Hello! ➡️In this lecture, we will cover one of the most common or popular correction options - triangles. I remind you that we are now considering various correction structures that are encountered both separately and can be part of more complex structures. ➡️Triangles are probably the most popular pattern for all beginners, yes, and not only beginners. It is quite often seen on the chart and most likely everyone tried to trade it according to classical recommendations, for example from books or a course, when essentially everything comes down to breaking dynamic resistance on one of the sides where you buy or sell. ➡️In history, everything looks pretty harmonious as usual, but in real-time, it turns out to be not that simple, and here maybe just the rules from wave analysis will help to avoid a certain number of errors. ➡️So let's take a look at the main rules and guiding norms for triangles! ✅ General Rules ✅ 📍A triangle always subdivides into five waves. 📍At least four waves among waves "a", "b", "c", "d" and "e" are subdivided into a single zigzag. 📍In a triangle, only one subwave can be a multiple zigzag or triangle. ✅ General guidelines ✅ 📍Usually, wave "c" or wave "d" subdivides into a "multiple zigzag" that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other subwaves. 📍Alternating waves of a triangle may be in Fibonacci proportion to each other by a ratio of 0.618 for contracting triangles and 1.618 for expanding triangles. For example, in a contracting triangle, look for wave "c" to equal 0.618 of wave "a". 📍A triangle can be correction wave "4" in the impuls, wave "b" of a zigzag, wave "x" of a double or second wave of an "x" of a triple zigzag, sub-wave "c", "d" or "e" of a triangle and the last structure of a combination. ✅ Contracting Triangle ✅ Rules 📍Wave "c" never moves beyond the end of wave "a", wave "d" never moves beyond the end of wave "b", and wave "e" never moves beyond the end of wave "c". The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves "b" and "d" converges with a line connecting the ends of waves "a" and "c". 📍Waves "a" and "b" never subdivide into a triangle. 📍In a running contracting triangle, wave "b" should be no more than twice as long as wave "a". Guidelines 📍Sometimes one of the waves, usually wave "c", "d" or "e", subdivides into a contracting or barrier triangle. Often the effect is as if the entire triangle consisted of nine zigzags. 📍About 60% of the time, wave "b" goes beyond the beyond the start of wave "a". When this happens, the triangle is called a running contracting triangle. ✅ Barrier Triangle ✅ Rules 📍Wave "c" never moves beyond the end of wave "a", wave "d" never moves beyond the end of wave "b", and wave "e" never moves beyond the end of wave "c". The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves "b" and "d" converges with a line connecting the ends of waves "a" and "c". 📍Waves "b" and "d" end at essentially the same level. 📍In a running barrier triangle, wave "b" should be no more than twice as long as wave "a". Guidelines 📍About 60% of the time, wave "b" goes beyond the start of wave "a". When this happens, the triangle is called a running barrier triangle. 📍When wave "5" follows a barrier triangle, it is typically either a brief, rapid movement or an exceptionally long extension. ✅ Expanding Triangle ✅ Rules 📍Wave "c", "d" and "e" each moves beyond the end of the preceding same-directional subwave. (The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves "b" and "d" diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves "a" and "c.") 📍Subwaves "b", "c" and "d" each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the preceding subwave. Guidelines 📍Subwaves "b", "c" and "d" usually retrace 105 to 125 percent of the preceding subwave.
Education
by Hellena_Trade
2
Swing Mapping Part 2: Trade Entry TechniquesWelcome to part 2 of our 3-part series on swing mapping – a highly underestimated technique that can be applied to any market on any timeframe. In Swing Mapping Part 1 we outlined the key principles of swing mapping which involved identifying potential swings, monitoring them, and drawing conclusions about market structure as swings levels are held or broken. Today, we will take this a step further and look at how swing mapping can be used to identify trade entry setups without the need for any additional indicators. We will showcase four simple entry setups that have the potential to unlock a plethora of trading opportunities. Swing Mapping Entry Setups: Breakouts and Reversals Swing mapping entry setups fall into two broad categories: breakouts and reversals. Breakouts involve entering with momentum as the market breaks above a swing that you have identified. Reversals on the other hand, involve entering against the prevailing momentum on a certain type of reversal that occurs at a swing level. The breakout and reversal swing mapping entry techniques that we will outline below can be applied to any market on any timeframe. Breakout Entry Setups 1. Break & Retest The break & retest setup can occur in a trending market structure or in a range bound market structure. Entry Trigger: Break and close above (below) a key level of swing resistance (support). This should be followed by a retest of the broken resistance (support) level. The entry trigger occurs when the market forms a small swing low (high) at the broken resistance (support) level. Stop Placement: Below (above) nearest swing low. Example: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart In this example the market breaks above a key level of swing resistance. This is followed by a retest of the broken resistance level during which the market formed a cluster of small swing lows – indicating that broken resistance had become support. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Cluster Breakout The cluster breakout setup should only be taken when a clear trend has developed. During pullbacks in trends, a market tends to form clusters of small swings. The cluster breakout setup looks to enter on a breakout above (below) a cluster of swing highs (lows). The breakout should occur in the direction of the prevailing trend. Entry Trigger: Breakout above two or more small swing highs (lows) that have formed during a pullback in an established uptrend (downtrend). Stop Placement: Below (above) nearest swing low. Example: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart Sticking with the same example, shortly after the break & retest entry setup occurred a strong uptrend developed during which the market formed a cluster of swing highs as the trend consolidated. When the market broke through the small cluster of swing highs, our entry setup was triggered. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Reversal Entry Setups 1. Fakeout A fakeout occurs when the market breaks above a swing level only to reverse within the same or following two candles – trapping those traders who had anticipated a breakout. Entry Trigger: Break above (below) swing resistance (support) level followed by a close back below (above) the swing resistance (support) level within the same or following two candles. Stop Placement: Below (above) fakeout low (high) Example: Tesla Daily Candle Chart This example from Tesla’s daily candle chart highlights the plethora of trading opportunities the fakeout entry setup can offer. We see multiple instances of long and short opportunities when the market threatens to break above (below) a swing level only to fakeout. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Hot Touch: Double Top/Bottom The ‘hot touch’ is a specific variation of the classic double top/bottom. The market must touch and reverse from a swing level within the same candle like a cat that’s just touched a hot tin roof! Entry Trigger: An exact double top/bottom forms from a single candle. Stop Placement: Below (above) the double bottom (top). Example: EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart In the below example a hot touch double top forms in a range bound market – causing prices to reverse sharply and retest the bottom of the range. It is also worth noting the two fakeout patterns that also occurred. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
Smart Money Concepts Detailed Learning Plan. 5 Essential Topics If you want to learn Smart Money concepts, but you don't know what to start with, this article with help. I will share with you 5-steps Smart Money Concepts learning plan . 5 important topics to study in SMC. Topic 1: Market Structure - the analysis of a behavior of a price on a chart. In the contest of Smart Money Concepts you should learn: -SMC structure mapping -Market trend identification -Trend change -Trend reversal -SMC important events: BoS, CHoCH Learn Trend Analysis Leach ChoCH Topic 2: Liquidity Zones - learn to identify the areas on a price chart where liquidity concentrates. Learn How to Identify Liquidity Zones Topic 3: Imbalance - one of the most accurate signals of the presence of big players / smart money on the market. Learn How to Identify Imbalance with Candlestick Topic 4: Order Block - the specific areas on a price chart where institutional traders / smart money are placing significant number of trading orders. Top 5: Top-Down Analysis - structured and consistent analysis of multiple time frames. After you study Topic 1, 2, 3, 4, you should learn to apply these knowledge and techniques on multiple time frames, to make informed decisions, following long-term, mid-term, short-term analysis. Learn Top - Down Analysis The 5 topics that we discussed are essential for your success as a smart money trader. Study these topics with care, and I guarantee you that you will achieve exceptional results. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4
📍 Part 4. Corrective Waves- Simple Zigzags - Sharp Corrections.👩🏻‍💻 Welcome to the 4th lecture on Elliott Waves! ➡️In this lecture, we will start discussing the variations for corrective movements. Let's begin with the simplest one - it's zigzags. ➡️By correction, we mean the construction "ABC" after an impulse. This reminds us of a zigzag, hence the name. Also, we can encounter it in each corrective wave, that is, "2" and "4" - it's the simplest and most common form of correction. ➡️As you recall from previous lectures, for waves "A" and "C," there are variations in the form of Leading and Ending Diagonals, and the same applies to "B," namely flat, zigzag, triangle, or even a combination, i.e., any three-wave pattern. Here it's worth remembering that wave structure is fractal, and there's no need to be afraid, just like with variations for impulses, namely leading and ending diagonals. ➡️Zigzags can often be embedded into a parallel channel. We've dealt with a simple zigzag. Most likely, your main questions are about variations for "B": flat, zigzag, triangle, or combination. On the cover of the learning materials, you will find the main variations of simple zigzags. Keep and use them! 📍 Let's look at the main rules and guidelines! 📍 📍 Guidelines: 📍 📍In a zigzag, wavelength "C" can be equal to wavelength "A". 📍Wave "B" is usually corrected at 38.2% - 78.6% of the length of wave "A". 📍If wave "B" is a triangle, is usually corrected at 38,2% - 50% of the length of wave "A". 📍If wave "B" is a zigzag, is usually corrected at 50% - 78.6% percent of wave "A". 📍In a zigzag, if wave "A" is a leading diagonal, then we would not expect to see an ending diagonal for wave "C". 📍A line connecting the ends of waves "A" and "C" is often parallel to a line connecting the end of wave "B" and the start of wave "A". (Forecasting guideline: Wave "C" often ends upon reaching a line drawn from the end of wave "A" that is parallel to a line connecting the start of wave "A" and the end of wave "B".) 📍Waves "A" and "C" within the zigzag often appear in the form of impulses, but more often alternate according to the type of motive waves: if wave "A" is an impulse, expect wave "C" in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. It is much less common to find waves "A" and "C" in the form of diagonals. Thank you for your attention! There will be another lecture next week! Don't miss it! 🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
4
Education chart - SIMPLE ZIGZAGS in WXY DOUBLE ZIGZAGI started to assemble own ibrary of ElliottWave patterns and rules. Here simple zigzags occured in: wave W and wave Y of WXY double zigzag Zigzag 1 - wave W Wave A - leading diagonal Wave B - double zigzag Wave C - ending expanding diagonal ending at the top line of the parrallel channel Zigzag 2 - wave Y Wave A - impulse Wave B - double zigzag Wave C - ending expanding diagonal ending at the middle of the parrallel channel ----------------------------------------- ## Rules for Simple ZigZag - Subdivide into three waves. - Wave A is always an impulse or leading diagonal (expanding or contracting) - Wave C is always an impulse or ending diagonal (expanding or contracting). - Wave B is any corrective pattern. - Wave B never moves beyond Wave A start - Wave B always ends in Wave A territory - Wave A and C cannot be both diagonals of the same type (contracting/contracting or expanding/expanding), other combinations are possible ## Norms - Waves A and C are frequently impulse waves but even more often they alternate between impulse and diagonal modes. Waves A and C may occasionally alternate between contracting and expanding diagonals - Waves A and C cannot be diagonals of the same type - Wave C must travel past Wave A's top. In Elliott Wave Theory, failure to do so is referred to as truncation - Wave C should not go below 90% of Wave A ## Guidelines - Wave C is typically equal to 0.618 (occasionally 1.618 or 2.618) of wave A - Wave B typically retraces 38-79% of Wave A - in case B is a triangle it retraces **38-50%** of Wave A - in case B is a running triangle, the retracement can be **10-40%** - in case B is zigzag, the expected retracement is **50-79%** - The parallel channel that connects Wave A's start and Wave B's finish may provide a hint of where Wave C might conclude by extrapolating the other line from Wave A's end - If waves A and C are both strong, wave C will reverse at the channel's top line - If wave C appears weaker than wave A, it may reverse at the channel's middle - If Wave C performs stronger than A, a double channel will be used as a target of the reversal point. ## Occurs in Wave 2 Wave 4 (unless happened in wave 2) Wave W, Y of WXY double zigzag Wave W or Y of a combination Wave B of ABC flat Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in contracting diagonal Wave B of ABC zigzag Wave X of WXY double zigzag
TVC:USOILEducation
by Fomenka
3
How to win a PROP FIRM? Some life-changing trickSome people asked me a system to win prop-firm challenge and be funded. I decided to share some mind blowing trick that can really let you win your first prop firm and became really, really profitable. Lot of people ask lot of money for this, i am just asking a like, a follow and your support. So, let's start with some trick: - If you have a $10.000 account, what lot size will you use? - Most traders use 0.50/1.0 Lots a trades. Let me say, especially if you are a beginner, that this is wrong and you will fail 100%. Why? Because it will be really hard for you to manage emotions and be accurate. I know, some systems use 1:3, 1:6 or above R:R and you can also have a 30% win rate to be still profitable. I know that, i know how to increse accuracy, i know the best level to enter, the inducement entry, the high accuracy setup and most of the shit you can find online. But let's be honest, most of the traders that start a challenge account, sucks with system and will fail. And, most important, traders that start a challenge are not professionals that can spent 8/10 hrs a day waiting for the best entry. - So what system should i use to win a challenge? - Swing. Probably, if you start a challenge, you will fail in the first week. Go swing, wait for the profits, manage the entries, and using my money management system, you can chill and don't be worried during the challenge. - What about the money management so? - I will explain you better in a new thread, if this ideas will reach at least 15 likes. - This shit is not helpful, i there is nothing new that can help me. - So, i will show you something so simple that will change your trading style in a second. I suggest you to use cTrader. In cTrader, when you open a pair, you can see market sentiment. this will show you a ratio about long/short. When you see that the sentiment is imbalanced (More than 60% are long or short) you know that you should wait and not open a trades. You will see the sentiment increasing in long or short (it will be 80/20, and probably more in the next days). I am pretty sure your analysis are agree with the market sentiment. So, if 97% of the traders loose money and, for example, 85% of traders are short, what do you think the price will do? There are high chances will go in the opposite direction. So wait, and don't be worried to miss a profitable trades. Every trader is thinking exactly like you. Sentiment is telling you that. They will loose money at 97%, do you? I have lot of trick more that will really help you win a prop firm, and be profitable. Support and follow me and i will reveal more
Education
by SaliJournal
Swing Mapping Part 1: Key Principles Welcome to the first instalment of our 3-part series on swing mapping – a highly underestimated technique that can be applied to any market on any timeframe. In Swing Mapping Part 1: Key Principles you will learn: Why it’s the bedrock of all market structure analysis How to swing map in four simple steps Why it’s so important to do it yourself rather than use an automated tool Other key benefits of swing mapping What is Swing Mapping? As the name suggests, swing mapping involves identifying swings within market structure to understand the dynamics of price movement. This may seem too simple to be of much real-world value, but as is often the case in trade, seemingly simple and robust tools can be highly effective and highly nuanced. When done correctly on a real-time forward-looking basis, swing mapping has the potential to be integrated into many different trading strategies. Defining a Swing A swing is simply an uninterrupted high or low. At its core a swing is a three-bar sequence in which the middle bar represents a turning point in the market. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Not all swings are equal. The more bars either side of the swing high or low, the larger the peak or trough in the market – the more significant the turning point. Swings are the bedrock of all market structure analysis. Swings define support and resistance, they define if a market is trending higher or lower, they define if a market is in a range, and they help to define if volatility is contracting or expanding. Swing Mapping in Action Swing mapping is at its most useful when it’s conducted in real-time on a bar-by-bar basis. For the purposes of outlining the method, we will use the 1min candle chart and map every potential swing. Swing mapping is a 4-step forward looking process: Identify Swing: Identify a swing using the definition provided above (a three-bar sequence in which the middle bar represents a turning point in the market). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Draw Market Structure Line: Once a swing is identified draw a solid horizontal line on your chart. The line remains solid until the market has broken and closed above it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Monitor Response: Should the market break through the solid line you have drawn, change the style of line from solid to dotted. If the market fails to break through your line, keep it on you chart as a solid line for as long as you deem to be valid. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Draw conclusions: Once you’ve repeated steps 1-3 on your chosen trading timeframe, you can then draw important conclusions regarding the market’s current structure. In our example (below), we followed the S&P 500 as it failed to break to new highs for the day then briefly started to trend lower before moving higher to retest the swing highs which has clustered to form a clear resistance level. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Here are just some of the other insights we can gather from mapping swings: Market Bias: Swing mapping allows you to quickly see where the balance of power lies. A sequence of dotted swing high lines indicates that the market is consistently breaking to new highs on the day – signalling a bullish bias. Conversely, if a sequence of dotted swing low lines form, then the market has been consistently breaking to new lows – signalling a bearish bias. And finally, if we start to see full lines for both swing highs and swing lows, this signals that a range is developing. Failure Tests: Failure to break through a swing high or low is the first sign that the market’s current momentum is changing and a new turning point is potentially in place. In our prior examples we saw a small failure test which led to a pullback, here’s the same chart again: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Trend Health: As an uptrend starts to wane, the distance from swing high to swing high tends to shorten. The opposite is true of downtrends. Swing mapping is a great way to identify the health of a trend. As you become better at swing mapping, you will become more adept at recognising the subtle changes in market structure. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results DIY - Do it Yourself There are many tools on the Trading View platform that can do swing mapping for you in real time set to your parameters. However, to maximise the benefits of swing mapping it is highly recommended that you do this process manually yourself as it will quickly build intuition and rapidly improve your knowledge of market structure. Drawing the swing lines, waiting for the market to break them and turning them dotted if broken, drawing conclusions as you build a map of broken and unbroken swings, deciding how long to keep unbroken turning point lines solid and valid on your chart. These are all hugely powerful active learning tasks that have the potential to make you a much better trader. Other Benefits of Swing Mapping Any Market Any Timeframe: Versatile across diverse markets and timeframes, enabling rapid skill acquisition. Real-Time Analysis Without Lag: Provides immediate insights into market structure and price action, facilitating timely decision-making. Enhanced Trade Timing: Identifying responses to market swings in real-time optimises trade entries and exits, maximizing profit potential. Effective Risk Management: Precisely identifies support and resistance levels, aiding in strategic placement of stop-loss orders and risk assessment. Adaptability Across Market Conditions: Versatility to adapt to various market conditions ensures consistent performance. Development of Trading Discipline: Fosters discipline and patience, promoting adherence to predefined rules and strategies. In Swing Mapping Part 2, we delve into precise trade entry techniques leveraging swing mapping without additional indicators. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
2
📍Part 3. Motive Waves - Leading & Ending Diagonals.👩🏻‍💻Welcome to the 3nd lecture on Elliott Waves! ➡️In this lecture, I will talk about the Leading and Ending diagonals as the primary and most common variations of impulsive waves. We will also touch on the Expanding diagonal, which occurs significantly less frequently. Earlier, we covered the general concept of impulse and its structure. Now, I will specifically discuss the variations of impulses and, namely, for waves "1", "5", as well as corrective waves "A" and "C". ➡️Let's start with variations for the first wave in the impulse and correction. This is the Leading diagonal. This structure may remind you of an ascending triangle, and essentially, that's what it is. The first wave itself implies that before this, we were moving in the opposite direction. So, if wave 1 is ascending, it means there was a certain descending movement before it. And it's obvious that in this descending movement, sales prevailed. Thus, reversing the price in the opposite direction may not be so easy. In such cases, when it's not easy, we get not a sharp 5-wave impulse but a Leading diagonal, where conditional buyers, as it were, chew their way upwards. ➡️Next, of course, there is correction and further growth. The Leading diagonal can also be encountered in wave a of correction "ABC". And here, the logic remains the same since the correction goes in the opposite direction of the trend; we have significant support for demand. In our example, this is an ascending trend. Therefore, we don't get a sharp impulse, but gradually, and squeezing, which forms the structure of the Leading diagonal. ➡️As you already understand, waves "2" or "4" also have a correctional structure "ABC", where "A" can also be a Leading diagonal. And then, you can encounter the Leading diagonal in wave "1" and in wave "A", and since they reverse the direction of movement, the structure is not formed like a sharp impulse but more like an ascending triangle in the case of wave "1" and a descending triangle in the case of corrective wave "A". ➡️Moving on to the Ending diagonals. You can get them in wave "5" and wave c in the corrective structure "ABC". Here the principle is similar, as you might have guessed, to the case of wave "5". We see how the ascending movement fades, as if the buyers no longer have the strength to move the price, impulsively upwards, I remind you, we are considering an example of an ascending trend movement. ➡️You can encounter the Ending diagonal in wave "5" and wave "C". It turns out everything is quite logical and simple. Wave "1" starts the impulse, and wave "A" starts the correction. Wave "1" starts the impulse, and wave "A" starts the correction. In turn, wave "5" completes the impulse, and wave "C" completes the correction. ➡️Well, now we need to understand the rules for the Leading and Ending diagonals to determine them correctly. ➡️Now let's look at the rules separately for Contracting diagonals! 📍 Rules 📍 📍In the contracting variety, wave "3" is always shorter than wave "1", wave "4" is always shorter than wave "2", and wave "5" is always shorter than wave "3" (1 > 3 > 5 and 2 > 4). 📍Going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 converges towards with the line connecting the ends of waves "1" and "3". 📍 Guidelines 📍 📍In the contracting variety, wave "5" ends beyond the end of wave "3" (only for the Leading diagonals). 📍In the contracting variety, wave "5" ends beyond the end of wave "3" or does not reach the end of wave "3": truncation (only for the Ending diagonals). 📍In the contracting variety, wave "5" usually ends at or slightly beyond a line that connects the ends of waves "1" and "3" (Ending beyond that line is called a throw-over). 📣This concludes the lecture on impulse waves. Save the images and practice. Next week I'll talking about the Corrective Waves - Simple - Sharp Corrections. 🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
1
HARMONIC PATTERNS TRADING | ABCD PATTERN & HOW TO TRADE IT Harmonic ABCD pattern is a classic reversal pattern. In this article, I will teach you how to recognize that pattern and trade it properly. This pattern is composed of 3 main elements (based on wicks of the candles): 1️⃣ AB leg 2️⃣ BC leg 3️⃣ CD leg The pattern is considered to be bullish if AB leg is bearish. The pattern is considered to be bearish if AB leg is bullish. AB leg must be a strong movement without corrections within. A is its initial point and B is its completion point. BC leg is a correctional movement from B point after a completion of AB leg. The price may fluctuate within that. B is its initial point and C is its completion point. CD leg must be a strong movement without corrections within. C is its initial point and D is its completion point. ❗️ABCD movement is harmonic if the length and the time horizon of AB and CD legs are equal. By the length, I mean a price change from A to B point and from C to D point. By the time, I mean a time ranges of AB leg and CD leg. If the time and length of AB and CD legs are equal, the pattern is considered to be harmonic, and a reversal will be expected from D point at least to B point. 🛑If the pattern is bullish, stop loss must be placed below D point. 🛑If the pattern is bearish, stop loss is placed above D point. Initial target level is B point. Usually, after reaching a B point the market returns to a global trend. What pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Trend Trading Strategy for the Heiken Ashi Algo v6Knowing when the RSI and price are in a ranging phase even in the short term can be a difficult process. You are either #Ranging #bullish or #bearish. At least in the Algo v6 you can get a clear vision of exactly whats happening. In this video im going to give you a VERY simple strategy on: 1. How to know if the RSI and price are ranging 2. When do i break away from Ranges 3. Am I trending 4. Im trending but whats my confluence to take a long or short 5. Is my range getting bigger or smaller Enjoy this quick vid and ask questions below. Thanks everyone.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
4
📍Part #2, Elliott Waves: "Motive Waves - Impulse".👩🏻‍💻 Welcome to the 2nd lecture on Elliott Waves. So, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that price behavior follows a wave structure, with three waves being impulse waves and 2 being corrective waves. It can be said that these 5 waves look like the image above. ➡️For example, let's take an upward impulse, where the impulse refers to all these five waves. We observe the first wave of growth, then the second wave is corrective to the first, meaning the second wave is specifically a correction for the first wave. Next, the third wave is a growth wave, the fourth is corrective for the third, and the fifth wave concludes the impulse. Following the completion of the impulse or the five-wave sequence, a correction occurs in the form of A, B, C. ➡️This entire structure is fractal, meaning that if our upward impulse has three waves, and they are also impulse waves, such as the first, third, and fifth, and as impulse waves, as we already know, consist of five waves, then each impulse within this larger five-wave sequence has the same structure of five waves. Furthermore, in the correction A, B, C, waves A and C also have a five-wave structure, but more on that in the next lessons. ➡️If you ask about the timeframes to work with waves, I would say that the 1-hour timeframe is the threshold below which it is not recommended to consider the structure! Next, I will describe the basic rules and regulations concerning impulses in the form of pictures, which are convenient to save and use as a hint when analyzing charts. ➡️Now let's consider some rules that are mandatory for all impulse movements. Rules An impulse always subdivides into five waves. Strong guidelines 📍Wave A almost always will alternate with wave B. Alternation can be expressed in two ways: 1) In the type of correction: sharp/sideways or vice versa 2) In the presence of extension: in waves 2 and 4 of the impulse, two sideways patterns are possible, but only one of them will have an extreme beyond the peak of the previous wave. 📍Wave 4, as a rule, significantly violates the channel formed by the subwaves of wave 3. 📍As a strong norm, no part of wave 4 should enter the price territory of wave 1 or 2. 📍As a strong norm, the peak of wave 4 should not extend beyond the doubled channel constructed from the peaks of waves 1, 2, and 3, while the midline of the channel will serve as the minimum achievable target. 📍Second waves of impulses tend to go beyond the previous fourth wave. When using this norm, the previous fourth wave serves as the minimum target. 📍Sometimes wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3 (in which case it is called a truncation). 📍Often, waves 1 and 5 of the impulse form impulses, but more often they alternate in the type of motive waves: if wave 1 is an impulse, expect wave 5 in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. Less commonly, waves 1 and 5 form diagonals, but in this case, alternation will be expressed in the form of a pattern: contracting/expanding. So there are also many other lesser indications, but they are too numerous and less frequent. Therefore, I recommend that we focus on the main ones for the time being. 📣This concludes the lecture on impulse waves. Save the images and practice. Next week I'll start talking about the Leading and Ending diagonals. 🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
11
Bitcoin - Probabilistic MapSince traders are literally made of particles, it's vital to know the principles of their behavior in micro scale. Some people even use planetary cycles to implement into charting. But I believe the answer is deep in quantum world of probabilities - the fabric of reality itself. Reference to Quantum Mechanics The universe itself prohibits 100% prediction accuracy. This is called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's the fundamental building blocks of Quantum Mechanics. In order to predict particles behavior, all you need are just 2 quantities/data/features: 1) Position of the particle 2) Momentum of the particles. If you know it's position and it's momentum, you can easily predict it's trajectory. So if you have position and momentum data of all particles in the universe, and you have unlimited computational power, you can predict their behavior (interaction, movement, etc.), and basically predict the future (stock market, weather, natural disaster, etc). However, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that it is impossible to collect information of particles's position and momentum with 100% certainty. The more certain you know about particle's position, the less certain it's momentum" and vice versa. So if somehow with the unlimited computational power you can predict particle's position at time with 100% accuracy, then your prediction error for its velocity will be infinity, which prevent you for making accurate further predictions, rendering your model useless. Hence, it's theoretically impossible to make 100% accurate prediction even with unlimited data and unlimited computational power. So Is The Universe deterministic or probabilistic? 100% prediction accuracy also means the universe is deterministic - there's only one possible outcome of the future. Einstein was on this side, citing "God doesn't play with dice". On the other hand, folks like Heisenberg, Max Born, Schrodinger, Oppenheimer, etc.., the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics, viewed the future as set of possible outcomes each having it's own probability. Since market couldn't care less about anyone's subjective forecasts, I do predictions solely based on historic price dynamics in macro scale to stay objective and true with the market pulse rather than be bared with my endless interpretations of patterns. I don't need my consciousness to interpret because we already have a data derived from collective consciousnesses to work with. Chart is already a reflection of reality that captures the emotions of participants. In other words, it's a time fractal that exposes the essence of the market across timeframes. In turn the market itself is a function of trading time . These basis justify linking systematic fragments of cycles to work out the capacity of price action. Basically in Fractal Analysis, the question is how can direct metrics of the historic waves geometrically explain current and future price levels. The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical concept that appears in various aspects of nature. This connection between mathematics and the natural world is a fascinating example of how patterns and structures found in abstract concepts like numbers can manifest in physical reality . Particularly, using Golden Ratio as a key rule that governs order in chaos. In TradingView, the "Fibonacci Channels" is a great tool to capture the waves (domestic certainty) and turn them into a probabilistic interconnected structure that captures the uncertainty of the market - the entanglement of price action. To start with it's vital to use log scale where percentages are equally captured in distances. So a 100% a growth, say a vertical distance from $40 to $80 measures the same distance as from $1000 to $2000. Besides, percentages are what drives people to feel emotions which affect market behavior (collective executions). Finding geometric relationship between waves, the use of log scale is a must. As I've done this before I want to show how market deviates near fibs. A Direction of 2013 HIGH ⇨ 2017 HIGH with bottom of 2011 gives next bottom 2015 at 0.618 after -86% drop. And also predicts the COVID bottom in 2019 after -72% drop as well as current level where price has cooled down locally. We can note that previous ATHs are explained with logarithmic curve. That's why we'd need another fib channel to connect 2017 HIGH ⇨ 2021 HIGH direction with previous bottom of -86% drop in 2015. FC of that direction predicts bottoms of 2018 (-84%) and covid 2019 (-72%) at 0.618 again. Together they produce an interference pattern covers significant historic price changes. To further interpret current levels though the chart itself, we can use line with angle of direction connecting 2021 double tops: This shows the capacity of how high the market might still grow before next significant correction, if the local fib to the price hasn't yet dimmed the bullish incentive. Another straight line can be used to connect 2019 COVID LOW (-72%) with 2022 LOW, because we might probably never see such price levels in the nearest future as price has broken out with high rate of change. Now it needs more time and bearish capacity to go there. This line can indicate the bottom of hypothetical correction, if it happens now. Other than that it's a clear trendline with almost 4Y wavelength. Since straight lines doesn't exist in nature, I didn't extend them to the right. Now we need a more adaptive version of it to connect recent local bottoms of the trend. That would be a logarithmic trendline, in other words curves to mimic the function of exponential growth. Therefore falling below it, might indicate a possibility of correction and even reversal. Each day if it fails to grow with the curve, the bears will get depleted. A cross below the logarithmic curve of spreading information would be a confirmation of new bearish incentive. This is simply done to work out boundaries as limits of the function that explains the market. Corrective wave has a timing of 15 days in respect to its domestic volatility properties, before it becomes bearish impulsive or continues the impulsive bullish wave. Curves as a function of trading time explain pretty much all historic bullrun growths. As if there is some kind of gravity that governs the trend or it's the PriceTime that curves with the emerging trend. Individual cycles can be too curved accordingly. So the more the price fails to break out that function, the more predictive curve becomes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
3