Get started

Wave Analysis

Trading logic in multiple time frames of the SMC methodAfter the price breaks through the Swinghigh of the large time frame to create a BOS signal We look for sell down or buy up signals according to the following structure: Swing high(Weak) H4 => 1/5M pullback => break Swinglow 1/5M => 15M pullback => break Swinglow 15M => Pullback 4H => Order block 4H=> Pullback 1/5M => break Swinghigh 1/5M => Pullback 15M => break Swing 15M = > Pullback 4H => break Swinghigh 4H => Create new Swing High (Weak) and Swing Low (Strong)
CAPITALCOM:DXYEducation
by quangcttn
The EWT Explanation as to why I'm BullishThe elliot waves i have explained on the chart, with fib extenion levels of .127, 1.36, 1.50, 1.62, 1.78, with 1.5 being the mean. there are numbers up to 2.44 and higher... As i have explained before at any instant there is a 50/50% chance of going up or down, all other indicators i have seen, except Squeeze pro, and EWT 80% chance of success. So be ready for a download too, 20% hance think like Sun Tsu we are on deadly ground using out level 3 platforms, the Brokers probably have level 7 screens by now it used to be level 5 screens. If Paper wants to rip a hole in our little bullish world of chop and begin the MAXIMUM PROFITS downslide downtrend we all dream of finally being short As hell andmaking huge profits shorting all day long from R5 down to S6 or S7 I have been trying to teach everyone how to spot EW 4 and stay in a trade w/o paying hundreds of dollars a day in commissions, after wave 4 you get a rocket ship on steriods, impuslive, complex and in the TREND UP.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by dryanhawley
Learn FAKEOUT, BREAKOUT, RETEST | Trading Basics Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss 3 very important market situations that every trader must be able to recognize: breakout, retest, and fakeout. ❗️ Please, note that the essential element of all these terms is structure: vertical and horizontal key levels. 📍 Breakout is a situation when the market breaks the identified horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line. Breakout is a very important event that signifies the willingness of buyers/sellers to violate the structures. Violation of support signifies a strong selling pressure, while a violation of resistance signifies a high buying momentum. Usually, the structure breakout is confirmed with a candle close. For confirmation of a breakout of support, a candle close below that is needed. For confirmation of a breakout of resistance, a candle close above is required. Take a look at a bearish breakout of a key support on Gold. After the breakout, the broken support turned into a resistance and was respected multiple times. It was broken by the buyers then and turned into a support again. 📍 Retest is the situation when the price returns to broken horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line after a confirmed breakout. For a structure breakout, high trading volumes are needed. Usually, after a breakout, the market participants are locally exhausted and a correctional movement follows. That may lead to a retest of a broken structure. Most of the time, after a retest, a strong impulse follows. For that reason, for many traders, the retest is applied for trading entries. Here is how nicely the price violated a key support on Gold. After a violation, the market became oversold and the price retested the broken structure. 📍 Fakeout or false breakout is the situation when the price has not enough strength to maintain its direction after a retest of a broken structure. Instead, the market returns below/above the broken resistance/support. Above, is the example of a false breakout on EURUSD. Fakeout is one of the main reasons why structure traders lose money. One of the ways to avoid fakeout is to monitor trading volumes during a structure breakout. A volume spike is needed to confirm the strength of the market participants, while low volumes most of the time signify a manipulation. Learn to spot breakouts and false ones, and try to trade on a retest. Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
The overall shape is curved like a arcA Trader looks at both sides and does not have an opinion on are we going bear or bull today, up or down. We could go up 100 points now to match the actual ATH, or we could continue rolling over in thi arm, spending more time in the S3 area, more selling than before, we will see what unfolds. Nobody knows the probazbly future in advance if they can't read elliot waver charts. This rally on the right could actually be a 4th wave counter trend complex 5 waves, that would be ideal to fall back into the new trend down or like i said go up 100 points to math /ATH? like a goal
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by dryanhawley
SP500 Entanglement of Price Action IIThe price touched the line with specific angle that covers ATH and (current) Lower High. I consider it as a point of reference because current observable price can be explained with that vector. The line separates 2 outcomes: Continuation of the uptrend Rejection Significant reversals that caused the structure to look the way it looks are: "ATH" 4 JAN'22 13 OCT'22 Lowest (> 2 years) 27 JUL'23 Lower High Those dates initiated longer term movements, hence defining the entanglement. The angle of general direction can be defined by the Fibonacci Channels of macro-fractal which emerged from Covid Low: It kinda exposes their domestic "spin to the side". Another example: Since the angle of -27.47% drop (ATH and Lowest >2yrs) are more perpendicular to the direction of time scale, the derived fibonacci would define periods of waves. Matches angle of -10.93% drop from 27 JUL'23 to 0.382 fib of the domestic structure. But, since after such drop, it didn't fall further but in reverse grew back, it must be defined with upward direction vector, the fibs of which would cover that low with cold colors. The fact of growing at higher levels after just 10% drop, deserve to get filtered with upward fibs. In respect to 31% growth the current price resides at 0.618. Further interconnectedness of points: 1.236 fib confirms that price is indeed at crossroad and in case of violating it, the price would set its tendency to move to next (1.382) fib line and reverse there under heavier pressure. Currently price is still under pressure because the market has grown to levels of domestic resistance. The curve shows mathematical function that mimics highs before reversing. Hence, it can be used to refer deviation where the price can end up after escaping ATH-LH-Current_Price vector. Otherwise, with failing to breakout now, it might go for correction in short-term perspective as soon as players notice that market is at already saturated levels.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by fract
10 POWERFUL INVESTING & TRADING QUOTES OF ALL TIME Here are powerful quotes of professional traders, investors and experts in financial markets. Let their words inspire you and help you in your trading journey. "To succeed in the market, you must learn to think like everyone else and do the opposite." - Sir John Templeton 📈💭💡 "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton ⏳📉🛑 "The more you learn, the more you earn." - Warren Buffett 📚💰📈 "The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money." - Victor Sperandeo. 💪💰🚫🧠 "Investing is not about making predictions, it's about having a plan and sticking to it." - Tony Robbins 📊🔄📌 "The best time to buy a stock is when the blood is running in the streets." - Baron Rothschild 💀🔪💰 "The best investment you can make is in yourself." - Warren Buffett 💼💡💰 "The stock market is not a casino; it's a crooked casino." - Charlie Munger 🎰🎲🏛️ "Losses are part of the game. You can't win every trade." - Martin Schwartz . 📉😔💔 "The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future." - Peter Bernstein . ⚖️❓🔮 The More I trade, the more I realize how precise and meaningful are these phrases. Take them seriously, and they will help you achieve the financial success. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
3
Parallel Universe: Expert's Guide to the Art of Losing MoneyDisclaimer: Warning! The given tips are born from the minds of financial disasters and for entertainment purposes only. These are the results of the imagination of unsuccessful traders with a knack for making impressive losses. These master traders are known to make their financial mistakes by making huge losses. Unsuccessful traders are honored members of FRBF - Financial Ruins of Big Fortune with lifetime achievement of negative portfolios and returns. We do not recommend following the suggestions from the unsuccessful traders otherwise we have to add you to FRBF club. Well, well, if it isn't the tired soul tired of seeing green numbers in their trading account. Can you believe it? I always have seen a dream of world's biggest loser trader. Apparently, 99% of traders out there are making money, and we're stuck in the miserable 1% who might be losing. But hey, if you're sick and tired of making money, you've stumbled upon the perfect spot. Get ready for a wild ride as I unveil the secrets to drain your hard-earned cash and proudly join the prestigious FRBF - the Financial Ruins of Big Fortune. Buckle up, my friend! 1) Borrowing Money: You should borrow money from every possible resource. Remember that Saving money and working hard for financial stability is just for cowardly people. Debt is the only key to get success in the trading world. If you have bad luck, you can get your creditors good luck by borrowing their money. Imagine when your creditor will knock on your door, and you will be running and hiding from them! How thrilling is this! It's a surefire way to reach new heights of financial ruin. 2) Avoid Using Stop-loss: We should totally ignore those stop-loss orders. There's this fascinating study that suggests traders who actually use stop-loss orders tend to have lower losses compared to those who don't. who needs that kind of useful information? Not us! We're not beginners here, are we? If you use stop-loss, it will exit the trade when market sentiments are changed. You will never be able to make huge losses. Let's just toss those stop-loss orders right out the window and dive headfirst into the exhilarating world of uncertainty. Because what's more exciting than watching our trades go haywire with no safety net? So let's embrace the thrill, ignore risk management, and revel in the rollercoaster ride of potential financial ruin. 3) Hold Losing Positions & Never cut losses: Who needs to admit defeat when we can simply cling to hope and pray that the market will miraculously turn in our favor? It's such a fantastic strategy to hold onto those sinking ships, watching our losses pile up like trophies of our unwavering determination. Cutting our losing positions? Pfft, that's for amateurs who actually care about preserving their capital and minimizing losses. We, on the other hand, choose to ride the wave of delusion and hold onto our sinking investments with unwavering faith. After all, why learn from mistakes when we can repeat them endlessly? So let's keep clutching those losing positions tightly, and maybe, just maybe, the market will eventually bend to our will. 4) Avoid Managing Risk: Risk management will not let you become an unsuccessful trader. Forget about preserving your capital and protecting yourself from substantial losses. Let's just dive headfirst into the deep end and throw caution to the wind! So, according to your brilliant logic, let's ignore risk management and trade in five stocks with a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. We'll lose $3 in three stocks and $6 in the remaining two trades. Brilliant strategy, right? Who needs profits when we can lose money consistently? 5) Never Pay Attention to News & Events: Who needs to stay informed about current events and news when it comes to trading? Ignorance is truly bliss, especially when it comes to making informed decisions and understanding market dynamics. Let's just close our eyes and ears to all those pesky news articles, economic reports, and major events that could potentially impact the market. Who needs to know about interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or corporate earnings releases? They're just distractions, right? Instead, let's rely on our sheer intuition and gut feelings to guide our trading decisions. (6) Overtrade Consistently: Overtrading is the key to financial prosperity in the trading world. Forget about patience, strategy, and carefully planned execution. Instead, let's indulge in a frenzy of excessive trading and drown ourselves in a sea of transactions. Who needs quality over quantity when it comes to trades? Let's throw caution to the wind and execute as many trades as possible, disregarding any semblance of rational decision-making. Because, clearly, more trades automatically translate into more profits, right? Why bother with analyzing market trends, studying charts, or conducting thorough research when we can just click that "Buy" or "Sell" button incessantly? After all, trading is just a game of chance, and blind luck is definitely on our side. 7) Never Use Technical Analysis: Technical analysis? Nah, it's all smoke and mirrors, right? Who needs those fancy charts, indicators, and patterns to make smart trading decisions? I mean, who has time for that? Sure, by using technical analysis, you could potentially have a better sense of when to enter or exit trades and where to set stop-loss levels. You might even be able to forecast market movements using theories like Elliott wave, price action, chart pattern analysis, or volume analysis. But who needs all that when you can just wing it and tap the buy and sell buttons without any plan or analysis? Who needs strategies or insights anyway? Forget about those losers who waste their time studying charts and analyzing market trends. Real traders, the ones who consistently lose money, don't bother with technical analysis or any other form of analysis for that matter. They rely solely on their gut feelings and blind luck. That's the way to go! 8) Emotional Trading: emotional trading Is a brilliant strategy! Who needs logical decision-making when you can base all your trades on impulsive emotions? Forget about analyzing charts, patterns, or market trends. Just let your feelings guide you like a compass in a hurricane. Why bother with calm and rational thinking when you can succumb to the rollercoaster ride of fear, greed, and impulsiveness? It's truly a magnificent way to sabotage your trading success and ensure that your portfolio becomes an emotional wreck. So go ahead, throw logic out the window, and embrace the chaos of emotional trading. Because nothing says financial stability like making impulsive decisions based on fleeting emotions! Good luck on your wild emotional trading adventure! 9) Always Trust Unregulated Brokers: Unregulated brokers are the epitome of trustworthiness and reliability. Who needs regulatory oversight and investor protection when it comes to handling our hard-earned money? Why bother with ensuring the safety of our funds or verifying the legitimacy of a broker? It's so much more exciting to entrust our financial well-being to anonymous individuals operating in the shadows. Who needs transparency, accountability, or adherence to industry standards? Unregulated brokers provide the perfect opportunity to navigate the treacherous waters of the financial world without any safety nets. It's like playing a high-stakes game of roulette with our life savings! 10) Always trade on others' advice Trading on others' advice is the secret recipe for success in the trading world. Who needs to develop their own knowledge, skills, and expertise when we can rely solely on the wisdom of others? Let's throw out our own analysis, research, and intuition, and blindly follow the advice of random strangers on the internet or that "hot tip" from a friend's cousin's neighbor's dog. After all, they must be financial geniuses with impeccable track records, right? Who needs to understand the underlying fundamentals or technical aspects of a trade when we can just mimic the actions of others without question? It's so liberating to surrender our autonomy and decision-making abilities to the masses. It's a foolproof strategy that guarantees confusion, frustration, and, of course, financial ruin. 11) Never Ever Take Profit It's such an intelligent strategy to watch our gains evaporate right before our eyes. Why bother with securing our profits and protecting our capital when we can hold on to winning positions indefinitely? It's so much more thrilling to experience the roller coaster ride of market fluctuations and see our unrealized gains dwindle away. Let's ignore those pesky market indicators, trailing stops, and profit targets. After all, who needs a concrete plan when we can simply rely on greed and the hope that our winning trades will magically keep going up forever? And let's not forget the joy of regret when a once-profitable trade eventually turns into a massive loss. Who needs financial stability and consistent growth when we can embrace the unpredictable nature of the market and bask in the glory of missed opportunities? 12) Learning From Mistakes Learning from our mistakes and evolving as a trader is overrated. Who needs personal growth and improvement when we can stay firmly planted in our cycle of financial self-destruction? Let's ignore those pesky lessons that losses teach us. Why bother reflecting on our trading errors, analyzing our strategies, or seeking ways to improve? It's so much more exciting to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, expecting different results each time. Who needs progress and development when we can remain comfortably stagnant in our trading endeavors? Let's embrace the thrill of consistent failure and pretend that we're on the cusp of a breakthrough while repeating the same ineffective tactics. And why stop repeating mistakes? Let's add a touch of delusion and convince ourselves that this time, things will magically turn around. Because, clearly, doing the same thing repeatedly without learning from it is the secret to unbounded success. 13) Fall for "Get-Rich-Quick Schemes" "Get-rich-quick schemes" are the epitome of financial wisdom and stability. Who needs a long-term, sustainable approach to wealth when we can chase after elusive shortcuts to instant riches? Why bother with hard work, patience, and diligence when we can throw caution to the wind and blindly trust those promising overnight success? Let's believe in the magic of "secret formulas," "guaranteed profits," and "hidden strategies" that are conveniently packaged in flashy marketing campaigns. Let's not forget the joy of handing over our hard-earned money to these self-proclaimed experts, who undoubtedly have our best interests at heart. After all, it's not like they're preying on our gullibility and desperation for a quick financial fix, right? 14) Trade Based on Rumors Baseless rumors and gossip are the most reliable sources of information for successful trading. Who needs verified facts, data, or market analysis when we can simply rely on hearsay and unfounded speculation? Why bother with conducting thorough research or verifying the authenticity of information? Let's just blindly believe every rumor that comes our way and make trading decisions based on pure gossip. It's so much more thrilling to embrace uncertainty and place our trust in unverified whispers. Who needs to understand the impact of real market drivers or economic indicators when we can make impulsive decisions based on the latest unfounded chatter? It's like playing a game of financial Russian roulette with our hard-earned money. To be continued... :D Idea by @Money_Dictators on @TradingView Platform
UEducation
by Money_Dictators
8
Part 2: Price Action Breakdown - Advance ElementsIn the first part, we discussed the components of the price action theory. We covered value area, control line, and excess price with examples, setups & guidelines (with my own observations.) Now, in this idea, we are going to cover the following topics: No trading zone Initiative & responsive trading Shifting of the value area Bullish Value area Bearish value area Extention of the value area Combining all the pieces I request all of you to visit our first part if you have not read it yet. Check out the following demo chart, and try to mention each component by yourself: Now, you can check the following chart, and see if you have denoted correctly or noted: 1) No trading zone: No trading zone/activities is the area where trading is not happening. It shows the strength of buyers in the lower band and the strength of the sellers in the upper boundary. Its shows who is controlling, who will be controlling, and who have lost the opportunity. What does it mean? 🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the lower band, it shows that buyers are controlling the movement and sellers are not able to form trading activities. 🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the upper band, it shows that sellers are controlling the movement and buyers are not able to form trading activities. Observing the given formation that shows a sideways value area is enough to understand the whole story. There were actually three no-trading zones in the value area: two on the lower band and one on the upper band. The first NTZ(No-trading zone) on the lower band was the signal of the movement controlled by buyers. NTZ-2 was the widest of the value area, where sellers snatched the control from buyers and started outnumbering the buyers. NTZ-3 was the last no-trading zone where the buyers were on the controlled buy and couldn't give a response to the sellers' initiative move. The excess was the last price point from sellers that started the supply pressure. 2) Initiative & responsive trading As we discussed earlier, price movements are the result of the interaction between supply and demand. Buyer(demand) and seller's(supply) intuition are the main components of the price. Value area from where buyers and sellers are satisfied with the current prices. Neither buyers want to increase, nor the seller is interested in low prices at least for some duration. It's called equilibrium between buyers and sellers. What if it's enough? # Now buyers don't want to keep the prices as it's too low for them. So, the buyers will make an initiative to break the upper band of the value area. It is called "initiative" by buyers. # Sellers have to stop them from going out of the value area by making excess, which is called "response" by sellers. Anyone, either buyers or sellers, who are not satisfied can make an initiative. However, the opposite party has to respond to their initiative and settle into equilibrium again. Case 1: - The movement can only reach equilibrium by responding to each initiative. If a failure occurs, it signals evidence of a big move in the direction of the initiative. As per the chart, whenever buyers have made an initiative to move outside of the value area, sellers have responded with supply pressure and vice versa. Case 2: - Buyers have made an initiative, but sellers couldn't hold back the buyers' pressure and ended up losing movement. Here, we can say that the buyers have given a breakout of the value area, and the sellers' response was a failure. 3) Shifting of the value area - Traders don't have to be upset after the breakout of the value area. Supply and demand will balance and unbalance again, and traders will get an opportunity to trade according to the theory. We all know of the tenet of the dow theory that "price tends to trend ." Value area also shifts its value after the breakout/breakdown, often in the direction of the trend. Uptrend: The price was in an uptrend. After the breakout of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on. Downtrend: The price was in a downtrend. After the breakdown of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Money_Dictators
9
Part 1 - A Beginner's Guide to Breakdown TheoryThe Concept Of Supply & Demand The price movement of the security is the result of demand(buyers) & supply(sellers): If the supply is more than the demand, there are more sellers than buyers than sellers, which results in a price fall. If the demand is more than the supply, there are more buyers than sellers, which results in a price surge. If the demand equals supply, price consolidates in the range. Demands = supply This is an equilibrium area in which demand and supply are equal. The price forms the value area, where both buyers and sellers are equally satisfied with the current price movement. Neither buyer is looking for a price surge nor the bear is waiting for the plunge, at least for some time. The supply and demand are a deadlock or clueless about the upcoming dominance. Let's take an example to understand these supply and demand conditions: - The provided chart of TESLA shows a real-time example of the supply and demand effect on the price. In the beginning, Demand pressure was more than Supply pressure, and The stock started rising as buyers outnumbered sellers. As the stock price rose, some buyers started losing interest in purchasing more shares due to the high price. Eventually, the demand and supply pressures reached equilibrium. - At this point, both buyers and sellers were satisfied with the price movement, as the demand matched the available supply. At high prices, sellers began to take advantage of the situation by selling their stock, leading to a decrease in price. The supply of stock exceeded the demand, and buyers were unable to respond with further bullish moves. Elements Of The Breakdown Theory: (1) Value Area: As the name implies, the value area is the price zone where most trading activities happen. In the value area, buyers and sellers are satisfied and agree with the current price movement. Purchasers are Neither interested in the further price surge nor do sellers agree to a decline in the price during the equilibrium period. Value area includes two boundaries: Upper boundary: It represents the supply pressure, which stops the security of the price rise. If the stock crosses down the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bearish move. The price signals a weak structure if it fails to trade above the upper band for a long time. This structure is a bearish move. Lower boundary: It illustrates the demand pressure, which stops the security of the price fall. If the stock crosses up the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bullish move. The price signals a strong structure if it fails to trade above the lower band for a long time. This structure is a bullish move. (2) Excess: The excess price can be identified above the upper band and below the lower band. It shows a clear rejection of a certain price level and it reacts as support and resistance levels. It indicates the intuition of long-term traders. The price spends minimal time outside the value area. It tends to reverse its direction and move back inside. It can create an opportunity for traders to sell above and buy below the value area. For example, the price falls below the lower band but then reverses the movement. Traders can take advantage of this by buying the security with a tight stop loss, aiming for targets up to the upper band or potentially higher. - The provided chart depicts the daily timeframe of SHREECEM stock from May 1999 to July 2001 . During this period, SHREECEM experienced four excess at the upper boundary and three at the lower boundary of the value area. At 3rd excess of the lower boundary, buyers couldn't respond by a strong bullish move, and sellers rule the movement by supply pressure. How to draw value area/ Equilibrium? Step 1 : Obtain a price chart of the tradable instruments(stock, commodity or forex, etc.) with a suitable time frame. As per my observation, daily and, or lower is better. Step 2 : Look for an area on the price chart where the price is moving within a specific range. Step 3 : Mark the trading area with the highest trading activity with good volume, which will be marked as a value area. Step 4 : Mark the area with relatively low trading activities where the price couldn't stay for too long at a certain level, which will be marked as excess. Step 5: Clearly separate the value area from the excess price areas to visually distinguish between the two. Step 6 : Observe the repetitive up and down movements within the value area. Step 7 : Extend value - boundaries rightward on the chart. Observe how price reacts near boundaries for future insights. Example 1: - AAPL has formed five price excesses, two above the upper and two below the lower boundary. After selecting the chart, I separated the excess from the price zone. - Generally, We need to find a price range where most prices touch the upper and lower boundaries. Any prices above the upper boundary or below the lower boundary are considered excess. Example 2: - In another Apple chart, the price has formed three excesses. The first excess happened when bulls couldn't overcome the volume of sellers and ended up losing momentum. The second excess occurred when sellers were unable to break below the lower band and lost their strength. At the third excess, AAPL couldn't generate bullish volume, and sellers dominated the selling. Finally, the price fell to the lower boundary, and bulls responded with a massive volume. Demand exceeded supply, and sellers were outnumbered. Example 3: - In the hourly timeframe chart of AMZN, the stock was experiencing a downward trend and entered a consolidation phase. Two excesses were observed, one at the upper boundary and the other at the lower boundary. - At the second excess, bulls responded with a sharp decline, but they were unable to maintain their momentum above the upper band. This lack of sustainability in their upward move increased the confidence of sellers, leading them to drive the price down for a longer duration. Sellers increased the supply and pushed the price of AMZN down with a gap and strong volume. Example 4: - It is the EURUSD 4-hour timeframe chart. EURUSD has more than nine price excesses, with five above the upper boundary and four below the lower boundary. The 5th excess marked the most significant response from buyers, countered by sellers. Subsequently, the length of the excesses decreased. - At the 9th excess, the buyers' initiative to push the price above the upper boundary couldn't be sustained, as the sellers' trading volume exceeded that of the buyers. In the next part, we will delve into the other components in more detail. Creating an article that caters to both beginners and experts can be quite challenging and time-consuming. However, if you would like the next part to be available sooner, please show your support by hitting the like button. Your encouragement will motivate me to continue writing and sharing valuable insights. Thank you for taking the time to read!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Money_Dictators
16
The Timeless Abyss of Trading: The Greatest Trap Of All-timeI am here with a unique topic. It is about a psychological trading trap called the cycle of doom. What got me interested in this psychological topic? Well, there are very few articles about it. You can count them on one hand, and more than 90% of traders are losing money. Most traders find their method of trading. What stops them from becoming profitable traders? Tradingview platform is one of the biggest charting platforms that provide an educational section and editorial peak for traders to sharpen their knowledge related to technical analysis, trading methodology, trading psychology, etc. As a trader, we are making market memories by improving screen time, practicing technical analysis, analyzing option data(if applicable), and a lot more. Why do we still fall short in applying in real time? What stops us from becoming a profitable trader? Something looks missing out! I would like to draw your attention to the psychological trap cycle of doom, a topic discussed by only a few traders. Let me be clear, I do believe that this topic is universally applicable! The cycle of doom is made up of three phases: The search The Action The Blame "Sun Tzu said Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril." In order to exit from the loop of the cycle, we have to understand the parts of the cycle. 1) The Search: Probably, it's the first phase of the cycle. Just recall your initial stages of trading. You were finding a trading strategy to make money out of the money. You may have asked to friend, watched a YouTube video, read an article on Tradingview, bought a book or course or indicators, or purchased the strategy. At that time, you were entered into the cycle. Additionally, we should never trade for enjoyment but treat it as a business. The statement does not apply to the initial stages. Trader explores new methods, theories, and systems. Postulate, Trader A uses X theory to do their day trading for a living, and you were impressed and took it to put your money on it, or you found the method by yourself. The trader will switch his next position after finding a system that is convenient for his trading and trusts that he can take minimal risks to achieve expected returns. 2) The Action: The Action phase is the second phase of the cycle. Now, you have a trading system that will make your money grow to expected returns. This phase can be super exciting for traders as they believe he has an edge and is most likely a key to opening a present of unrealistic returns. Issues arise when a trader employs their strategy without supporting evidence, like backtesting results. Your heart may be pounding, and your fingers may be trembling like a child, but it doesn't mean you should directly trade the strategy without checking the results, failure, and performance of the system. Just five percent of traders actually test a trading system before putting it into action. You might discover that the trading system performs well for a prolonged period. Suddenly, a drawdown appeared! At a certain point, everything may seem bleak. While profits might flow in initially, eventually, the losing trades start to accumulate. It's a red signal for traders that their trading system is now on oxygen. I don't think traders can trust the system after a big streak of losing traders. You have entered into the blame phase. 3) The Blame: The Blame is the final stage of the cycle. As we discussed, the trader has lost their trust in his trading system, which was a holy grail for him at the initial stage. The Red portfolio hurts more than a break-up. The trader is not happy with the system as it has wiped out the gain + trading capital, and the trading system is the only cause that affected the profit and wants to remove the system and search for a new strategy. 4) Loop of the cycle: As can be seen, the trader again finds a new strategy and makes an effort and action on it, then blames the system. The cycle repeats and traps the trader in this way. How to get out of the cycle? 1. Modification is the only way to survival & Trust the system: Traders should modify their strategy according to market conditions, instruments, and trading style. Maybe not everything works for everyone. Therefore, traders should do this according to him. For example, I use Elliott wave theory as the first base and price action as a confirmation tool along with different indicators according to the situation. I do modify Elliott and price action as per my observation of price moves and wavelength. 2. Backtesting is the holy grail: Choosing trading theory also depends on traders' mindset, risk-aptitude, and expected return. Scalpers will never check the PE, P/S, or EV/EBITDA ratio of the firm just because of their duration and risk-reward calculation. After choosing an appropriate trading strategy, traders should backtest their trading strategy before doing real-market transaction. We have the advantage of backtesting tools, algo, and virtual account, which was not available for pit traders. 3. Risk management: Already many ideas are available on this topic. The trading system should be giving proper returns as per the taken risk unless it is nothing more than Drilling a well in the desert. I need more time to write a full idea on the escape of the cycle of doom. Thank you! @Money_Dictators
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Money_Dictators
14
SP500 Entanglement of Price ActionFibonacci interconnectedness of impulsive and corrective waves. Impulsive. Since Time is taken into account in terms of angles, the Fibonacci channels derived from multi fractals simulate phenomenon of the order in chaotic price action. More like projection of Levels of Probability like in QM, where Interference Pattern derived from waves of probability in Double Slit Experiment. Nevertheless, I would never accept that price unfolds because of the very act of measurement that assumably collapses the wave function and makes it behave accordingly. I'm implying that price formation just like fabric of reality itself is not deterministic but probabilistic. In charts, the fabric of PriceTime is continuously curved by the price action itself. That's why even after dramatic rise of volatility the price would end up at certain random levels but distinctive to domestic chaos and frequency of reversals.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by fract
1
Mastering Impulses and CorrectionsHello, Successful trading in the stock market requires a comprehensive understanding of market trends and the ability to identify price patterns. One such pattern is the interplay between impulses and corrections. By recognizing these alternating phases, traders can gain valuable insights into potential market movements and make more informed trading choices. In this article, we will explore how to identify impulses and corrections in stocks and leverage this knowledge to guide our trading decisions. Understanding Impulses and Corrections Impulses and corrections are two primary components of price movements in the stock market. They represent the cyclical nature of stock prices, characterized by alternating phases of strong trending moves (impulses) and temporary price retracements (corrections). These patterns are largely influenced by the collective behavior of market participants, as supply and demand dynamics drive price action. Impulses: The Power of Momentum Impulses are the strong, directional moves that propel stock prices in a particular trend. They typically occur in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment and are characterized by higher volume and strong momentum. Impulses can result from a variety of factors, including positive news, strong earnings reports, or broader market trends. To identify impulses, traders should look for the following characteristics: Strong Price Movement: Impulses are marked by significant and sustained price advances or declines. These moves often occur in a relatively short period, indicating a surge of buying or selling pressure. Volume Expansion : Increasing trading volume during an impulse signifies market participation and validates the strength of the move. Higher volume confirms the presence of eager buyers or sellers, further reinforcing the direction of the trend. Break of Key Resistance or Support Levels : Impulses often break through important technical levels, such as support or resistance, further establishing the strength of the trend. These breakouts serve as confirmation points for traders. Corrections: The Breath Before Resuming the Trend Corrections, also known as retracements or pullbacks, are temporary price reversals that occur within an ongoing trend. They serve as a natural pause or breathing space for the market before resuming the dominant price direction. Corrections are characterized by price pullbacks against the prevailing trend, often retracing a certain percentage of the previous impulse. To identify corrections, traders should consider the following factors: Counter-Trend Price Movement : Corrections exhibit price movement in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. These retracements can be shallow, typically ranging from 25% to 50% of the previous impulse's range. Decreased Volume : Corrections usually occur on lower trading volume compared to impulses. This decline in volume suggests a temporary reduction in market participation and reinforces the notion of a temporary price reversal. Support and Resistance Levels : Corrections often find support or encounter resistance at previously established price levels. These levels can act as potential reversal points, creating opportunities for traders to enter or add to positions. Using Impulses and Corrections in Trading : Recognizing impulses and corrections can provide valuable guidance for trading decisions. Here are some ways to leverage this knowledge: Trend Identification: By observing a sequence of impulses and corrections, traders can identify the prevailing trend. Understanding the broader market direction can help align trades with the momentum and improve the odds of success. Entry and Exit Points: Impulses provide opportunities for traders to enter positions in the direction of the trend. Once an impulse is identified, traders can look for suitable entry points during corrections, aiming to enter at favorable prices before the next impulse begins. Risk Management: Understanding the interplay between impulses and corrections can help traders set appropriate stop-loss levels. Placing stops below significant support levels during corrections can protect against adverse price movements while still allowing the trade to capture potential gains. Conclusion: Recognizing and understanding the patterns of impulses and corrections in stock prices is a valuable skill for traders. By identifying these phases, traders can gain insights into market trends, determine entry and exit points, manage risk, and develop effective trading strategies. Incorporating this knowledge into trading decisions can significantly enhance the chances of success in the dynamic world of the stock market. The above chart clearly shows you the Impulses and corrections on the Sunpharma chart. Good luck and all the best in your trading!
NSE:SUNPHARMAEducation
by thesharkke
Part 1: Equity Derivatives - A Beginner's GuideWhat are derivatives? Basic interpretation : something which is based on another source. A derivative is a contract or product whose value derives from the value of the base asset. The base asset is called the underlying asset. i.e., Sugar prices will rise if sugarcane prices increase due to low production. It means sugarcane is the underlying asset of sugar because the value of sugar is associated with sugarcane. There is a broad range of underlying assets: Metals: lead, gold, silver, copper, zinc, nickel, tin, etc. Energy: coal, natural gas, etc. Agri commodities: corn, cotton, pulses, wheat, sugar, etc. Financial assets: Stocks, bonds, forex, etc. There are two types of derivatives: 1. Exchange-traded: A standardized derivative contract, listed and traded on an organized exchange. 2. Over-the-counter/off-exchange trading/pink sheet trading: A derivative product in which counterparties buy or sell a contract or product at a negotiated price without exchange Instruments of derivatives market: There are four instruments in the derivatives market: 1. Forward: Forward is a non-standard agreement or agreement between two parties that allows you to buy/sell the asset at the agreed price for a pre-decided date of the contract. Forwards are negotiated between two pirates, so the terms and conditions of the contract are customized. These are called over-the-counter(OTC). 2. Future: Future contracts are similar to forwarding contracts, but the deal is made through an organized and regulated exchange rather than negotiated between two counterparties. A futures contract is an exchange-traded forward contract. 3. Options: A derivative contract that gives the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a stated strike price on or before a specified date. Buyers of options- Pays the premium and buys the right Sellers of options - Receives the premium with the obligation to buy/sell underlying assets. 4. Swap: A swap is a derivative contract between two counterparties to exchange for the cash flows or liabilities from two different financial instruments. It is an introduction article. I will cover all these topics in detail. Swap helps participants manage risk associated with volatility risk interest rate, currency exchange rates, & commodity prices. Index: Index = Portfolio of securities An Index shows how investors experience the economy. Is it progressing or not? A Stock market index gathers data from a variety of companies of industries. The data forms an overall picture and helps investors compare market performance through past and current prices. Financial indices represent the price movement of bonds, shares, Treasury Bills, etc. Importance of Index: 1. An index is an indication of a specific sector or gross market. 2. It helps investors to pick the right stock 3. An index is a statistical indicator. It represents an overall change or part of a change in the economy. 4. In OTC & exchange-traded markets, It used as an underlying asset for derivatives trading 5. An index helps to measure for evaluation of portfolio performance. 6. Portfolio managers use indices as investment benchmarks. 7. Index illustrates investor sentiments. Types of index: There are four classifications for indices: Equal Weighted Index: Each company is given the same weightage in the composition of this index. Equal-weighted indexes are more diversified than market capitalization-weighted indexes. This index focuses on value investing. Free-float index: In finance, equity divides into different among various stakeholders like promoters, institutions, corporates, individuals, etc. A tradable stake for trading is called a free-float share. i.g, If XYZ company has issued 5 lakh shares with the face value of Rs 10, but of these, 2 lakh shares are owned by the promoter, then the free-float market capitalization is Rs 30 lakh. Free-float market capitalization: Free-floating shares * Price of shares Index: BSE SENSEX Market capitalization-weighted index: In this index, each stock is given weightage according to its market capitalization. High market cap = High weightage Low market cap = low weightage Market Cap= Current market price * total number of outstanding shares i. e, if XYZ company has 1,000,000 outstanding shares and a market price of 55 rs per share will have a market capitalization of 55,000,000. Index: Nifty 50 Price Weighted Index: High price = More weightage Low price = Low weightage Popular price-weighted index: Dow Jones industrial average & Nikkei 225 I will upload the second part soon. Show your love with likes and comments. Thank you :) Money_Dictators
Education
by Money_Dictators
4
Trade Setup with Elliot WavesThis is an example of how you can use Elliot Waves to enter a trade. The bigger wave is wave (1) which consists of 5 waves. Now, for wave (2), a WXY pattern happened in a parallel channel. It can also be called a double three pattern. Wave (2) reached 50% of wave (1). 50% - 60% is typically where corrections end. After that, we can see a sharp rise up. This is wave 1 of wave (3). We can be confirm that it is wave 1 by seeing that it broke the channel of the WXY patterns. We can use this to enter a trade at and wait for wave 3 so that we can exit.
Education
by SamaaraDas