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Decoding Reversals: Technical Analysis of ONGC: Educational postEDUCATIONAL POST Technical Analysis of ONGC Stock This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. In this post, we'll analyze the ONGC stock chart using technical indicators. Key Points: 1. Bullish Divergence: Price and MACD are diverging, indicating a potential reversal. 2. Bullish Divergence: Price and RSI are also diverging, supporting the reversal idea. 3. Resistance Breakout: The stock has broken through a key resistance level with strong volume. 4. MACD Turns Positive: MACD has turned positive after the breakout, confirming the reversal. 5. Elliott Wave Counts: Wave counts suggest a potential reversal. What to Expect: Based on these indicators, we can see a potential reversal in ONGC's stock price. It may retrace to Fibonacci levels (50-61.8%) before continuing upward. Conclusion: This post is meant to illustrate how technical indicators can be used to analyze a stock chart. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:ONGCEducation
by RK_Chaarts
Bullish Rally, followed by a seloff in the afternoonOn the blue C wave targets on the lower right. This is meant to teach EWT elliot wave theory, to give not give trading advice. There is a corresponding Video Idea that goes into more detail. I will update the idea during the day tomorrow. I''m planning on buying with both hands if BITX /BITC go down on a 28" C wave. any rally will be over by the 1 AM Lunchers Idea I shared with the TV community, the idea that the pit Tradeers go out on 3 martin i lunchs, and ater they return they make a move to take reatil money. this is a tiny part of my "Bilderberg Theory" which I have been trading along with Paper, buying at S6 anbd selling at R6, since 2003 with I ;earne from Giget Sune, who i tradee futures with, and David Elliot the number oner stock chart trainer, awarded by the U.S stock Traders Assocition. 2003-2005 >. i rrally appreciate being given the opportunity to share my knowledge. www.tradingview.com BITCUSD / BITX has exactly the same chart.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by dryanhawley
Stock Market Logic Series #12 TradingView is so awesome that they let you change any piece of the chart . You can use this chart template for visual clarity. FYI, all my chart templates, are for visual clarity trading purposes, you can choose anyone that looks good for your eyes. So in this chapter in the series #12 lets see what we have here. 1 - The trendline is still alive. 2 - On the correction, you can see that there is a high volume on the upside. So it means that the puppet master is buying. 3 - You could see that there are 3 down candles, on increasing volume, but their spread is smaller and smaller. So it means that the puppet master also buying on the downside, also, stops where hit there strongly, and many people stopped out directly into the hands of the puppet master, classic puppet master move. 4 - The biggest volume is on the up side ! since this is the last (recent) piece of information, this is what counts! so currently, the chart is LONG biased. 5 - Crack pattern AWARENESS- if the price will test the low, it will be the crack pattern and then the price can go down up until $105 again. It will also be a break of trendline so it makes sense that there will be a fast SHORT move. But if the price goes to test $135 and then makes $140 push, it will be a failure of the crack pattern, which increases even more dramatically the LONG bias. WHY? Because if it is short... the crack pattern should materialize... since it can't materialize... it means it is not short, so it is LONG. #### I already showed the same exact logic, in AMD, failed crack pattern (in the past posts). #### 2 & 3 & 4 Examplify beautifully my concept of FORCE of the puppet master.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by ZoharCho
6
BITCOIN // When was the best time to go long?Actually, 2 weeks before Trump became elected president, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD printed a nice trigger candle (Marubozu) on the weekly, with waves already up, breaking the previous counter impulse base, and the countertrend line, at the weekly target fibo 61.8. The rest is history. Did anyone here has this idea back then? Anyone thought it would go to the weekly target fibo 300 with one wave? ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TheMarketFlow
The Best Phase of the Trend: The Expansion PhaseBeing a successful trader requires the ability to identify the phase of the trend with the highest probability of success. The best opportunities arise during the expansion phase, where the prevailing trend resumes, pushing the market to new highs or lows. This phase is characterized by swift, decisive market moves with minimal pullbacks, aligning strongly with the overall trend. My Trading Steps: 1. Define the Primary Trend on the Daily Identify the dominant trend (uptrend or downtrend) to establish the broader market context. 2. Look for a Countertrend on H4/H1 Spot corrections or pullbacks against the primary trend, signaling potential setups. 3. Find a Trigger Candle Watch for a Marubozu-like candle at the zone of the countertrend line break or the last clean, untested breakdown. 4. Exit Rules Exit the position if the price closes below the trigger line. 5. Take Profits Target key Fibonacci levels and significant support/resistance zones. a countertrend on H4/H1 This is an 80% Setup: Targeting Fibo 138.2 The strategy has an 80% success rate when the target is set to the Fibonacci 138.2 level, calculated from the closing prices of the correction. This precise targeting aligns with the expansion phase of the trend, ensuring high-probability entries and exits while maximizing potential profits. ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
TVC:DXYEducation
by TheMarketFlow
WHAT IS QM (SIMPLY)Quasimodo trading setup or QM is an advanced reversal pattern in which its formation signals the end of a trend, and most traders use its variants to improve trading results in the forex market. If u don't understand it, there is high possibility for stop hunting. u may heard HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, yes? QM is exactly HAD (head and shoulder) and u can trade it at: FL'S _ S&D ZONES and SR lines. it is also a Great show for money back and u can short it at all. What invalidates it? only Do not ENG the first support.
COINBASE:SHIBUSDEducation
by abdollah1386
Dow Jones Trend Day Setup 5* OpportunitiesMy goal going forward into 2025 is to only trade the Parabolic Trend trades and to master them. They happen roughly 5-8 times per month. Just catching 1 of these per month is all I need. Using 3% risk per one of these setups can deliver 15-20% gains. The universal entry criteria is the 5 minute close back inside the 20sma. The timeframe for entries are either 1 hour before the open, the open, and 1 hour after the open. Profit targets are generally until the close or a range expansion target of 1-2 times the Asia/London box. Below are multiple charts of the same setup with the green box being the ideal entry. If I can only trade 1 trade PER MONTH, this is what I will focus on.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Forecasting Swing Levels in a Trend Using Elliot WaveHere's a simple template that can help you to draw good fib extensions off different useful swings when the is a possible Elliot wave pattern. This should help to flag up the high probability areas in a nice expression of the Elliot pattern and also give you warning levels to watch along the way in case the nice simple pattern fails. We're going to focus on two legs. There's a few more you can draw fibs from and have useful repeating ratios but to keep it simple I'm just going to focus on the two high value ones here. Working left to right on the chart notes: When we know waves 4-5 we can use it for wave C An extension fib drawn from low to high of the 4-5 swing (you'd know this was in when wave A breaks the trend) is very useful for determining the levels the market is likely to make a low and also the level which a capitulation event is likely. The 1.61 extension is the important level here. It can hold in a simple wave 4 spike out correction. If it breaks, usually price capitulates to at least the 2.20. More commonly the 2.61 in the event we're making a low (You'll usually find this is a 76 retracement of 1-5 also). In the first instance of a 4-5 fib, I've shown a 1.61 break. Bit of a dummy rally around the 1.61 (very common) and then the capitulation to the lower fibs. Which is more common in the first leg of a trend. Deep retracements are common in trend reversals. When we know 1-2 we can use it for levels for wave 3 When we know where waves 1-2 should be in our count we can draw an extension fib high to low on this. We can define waves 1-2 as being in by the breaking of the first wave 5 high. It's also possible to pre-emptively draw these fibs when you think we're at the end of wave C. Obviously these need checked and adjusted if things change. There are four main fib levels we use in this swing. 1.27, 1.61, 2.20 and 2.61. 1.27 and 1.61 levels here are expected to have pullbacks or soft stalls but ultimately break. They're levels to be careful. If it will fail these are hot spots for it, but once we have some reaction around 1.27 - 1.61 and a valid breakout we trend consistently to 2.20. That usually completes wave 3 of the trend. From 2.20 we'll get chop and some false reversals. This is wave 4. It'll go on for a while and be full of false breakouts. Every time something looks like it's happening, it's not. Eventually there's a false bear breakout and then a big spike to the 2.61. This completes waves 4-5. Now we're back to where we started. Once we know waves 4-5, these help with levels for C. Since we now are inside a developing trend rather than in the first leg of it, the retracement is likely to be shallower. Stopping a little past the 1.61. With the trading under there mainly being a wick. There's a big bounce from the 1.61. A pullback (usually to the 1.27) and then there's a break of the high. Once we have seen those legs, then we have our new 1-2 legs and we can use these to forecast where we expect the nice trending action of C. The soft resistance levels along the way that might turn the market if the Elliot thesis is incorrect and the target levels we know to look for the bigger crash correction. For so long as the Elliot cycle plays this, these things just keep rolling into each other and you can make pretty good forecasts of the trend levels.
NYSE:EDUEducation
by holeyprofit
Gold Accumulation phase THE STORY OF THE DOJI: A large institutional player attempted to orchestrate a stop hunt, creating a false sense of market direction to trigger stops and ignite a sell-off. However, the subsequent price action revealed their hand. The Doji candle at the support level indicated a loss of conviction among sellers, while the slow distribution and step-like pattern suggested a more deliberate and calculated market behavior. The bullish candle that formed at the support level, particularly after the attempted stop hunt, implies that the market is rejecting the lower prices and that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure. This price action suggests that the institutional player's attempt to short the market may have been unsuccessful, and that the market may be poised for a reversal or a continuation of the uptrend. All based on my observational bias
TVC:GOLDEducation
by zikzay1
BIGGEST ALTCOIN RECAP FOR 2024We give glory to God Almighty for the gift of life and good health. As the year 2024 draws to a close, it's the perfect time to prepare our altcoin recap and reflect on the progress we've made. A big shoutout to TradingView for providing this incredible platform that empowers traders to learn, share, and grow together. Thank you, TradingView, for all you do! This post is dedicated to reviewing and revisiting all the altcoin requests submitted throughout the year, from January to December. The goal is to ensure clarity and provide updated insights as we wrap up the year and prepare for BIGGEST ALT SEASON 2025. Links to the analyses can be found here: December: November: October: September: August: July: June: May: April: March: February: January: Here’s how it works: Visit any of my previous posts and locate the analysis of the altcoin you’re interested in. Copy the link to that analysis and paste it here in the comments, along with your specific question or request. Your questions can include: Requesting an update to the existing analysis. Asking for a fresh analysis from scratch. Let’s dive in and collaboratively complete our final recap of 2024 altcoin analyses. This is a chance to refine strategies and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Share your requests, and let’s get to work!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Education
by weslad
53
Understanding Wyckoff Reaccumulation: A Comprehensive Guide## Introduction to Wyckoff Theory Richard Wyckoff developed his methodology in the early 20th century, creating a systematic approach to market analysis that remains relevant today. His method is based on the principle that market movements are primarily driven by large institutional investors, whom he called "composite operators." ## The Concept of Reaccumulation Reaccumulation is a sideways price pattern that occurs during an ongoing uptrend. Unlike basic accumulation, which occurs at market bottoms, reaccumulation represents a pause in an existing upward trend where institutional investors reload their positions before continuing higher. ### Key Characteristics of Reaccumulation 1. **Prior Uptrend**: Reaccumulation always follows a significant price advance 2. **Trading Range**: Price enters a sideways consolidation period 3. **Volume Analysis**: Typically shows declining volume during the range 4. **Price Structure**: Forms a series of higher lows and lower highs within the range ## Phases of Reaccumulation ### Phase A - Preliminary Support (PS) - Marks the initial support level where the uptrend first pauses - Often accompanied by increased volume - Creates the trading range's support level ### Phase B - Secondary Test (ST) - Price tests the trading range's support - Usually shows decreasing volume - May form several tests of support with springs or upthrusts ### Phase C - Last Point of Support (LPS) - Final test of support before markup - Often shows diminishing volume - Can include a spring below support ### Phase D - Sign of Strength (SOS) - Strong price move up on increased volume - Breaks above local resistance levels - Confirms the reaccumulation structure ### Phase E - Last Point of Supply (LPSY) - Final pullback before sustained markup - Generally shows lower volume than SOS - Creates higher low compared to LPS ## Identifying Reaccumulation vs. Distribution Understanding whether a trading range is reaccumulation or distribution is crucial for traders. Key differences include: ### Reaccumulation Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger support than resistance - Springs more common than upthrusts - Volume increases on upward price moves ### Distribution Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger resistance than support - Upthrusts more common than springs - Volume increases on downward price moves ## Volume Analysis in Reaccumulation Volume plays a crucial role in confirming reaccumulation patterns: - Decreasing volume during consolidation - Higher volume on tests of support - Strongest volume on breakouts above resistance - Low volume on pullbacks after breakout ## Trading Reaccumulation Patterns ### Entry Strategies: 1. **Spring Entry**: Enter after a spring below support with volume confirmation 2. **SOS Entry**: Enter on the break above resistance with increasing volume 3. **LPSY Entry**: Enter on the last pullback before markup ### Stop Loss Placement: - Below the spring low - Below the last point of support - Below the trading range support ### Target Setting: - Measure the height of the trading range - Project this distance from the breakout point - Consider previous resistance levels ## Case Study Analysis Examining the provided chart, we can identify several key Wyckoff elements: - Initial trading range establishment after uptrend - Multiple tests of support with declining volume - Formation of higher lows within the range - Strong volume on breakout moves - Successful continuation of the uptrend ## Common Mistakes to Avoid 1. Misidentifying the larger trend context 2. Ignoring volume confirmation 3. Taking premature positions before pattern completion 4. Missing important support/resistance levels 5. Failing to consider market context ## Conclusion Wyckoff reaccumulation patterns provide valuable insights into institutional behavior during uptrends. By understanding these patterns, traders can better position themselves to profit from continuation moves while managing risk effectively. Remember that successful trading requires patience, practice, and proper integration of multiple technical analysis tools alongside Wyckoff methodology. Remember: All technical analysis methods, including Wyckoff theory, should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management and consideration of multiple timeframes and market contexts.
Education
by javaman1376
Catching Dips any Coin with Spiderline !The Spiderline is a concept in cryptocurrency that refers to a specific strategy or indicator used in technical analysis to identify key support and resistance levels on the price charts of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. This concept is based on retracement levels or structures calculated from historical market data. Here are the key points to understand the Spiderline: Origin: It is often used by experienced traders to visualize critical zones where the price has historically reacted (bounced or been rejected). These zones are derived from specific lines on the charts based on previous Bitcoin price movements. Usefulness: - Identify support levels: where the price could stop during a decline. - Determine resistance zones: where the price might struggle to move higher. - It also helps plan entry and exit points based on the likelihood of market reactions. Differences from traditional indicators: Unlike tools like moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Spiderline is more specific to Bitcoin's historical behavior and is often used over longer timeframes. Associated strategy: Traders use it to refine their buying or selling decisions, avoid trading against strong trends, and manage their risk effectively. Credit Inspired by #Cryptoface
Education
by paullefebre92
1
ALTSEASON KICKS OFF!The Biggest Altseason Ever Starts Tomorrow: Are You Ready to Capitalize?" The crypto market is entering a pivotal Acceleration Phase, setting the stage for unprecedented growth. With Bitcoin eyeing a bold target of $250,000, altcoins are expected to surge alongside it, creating incredible opportunities for investors. Imagine turning a modest $50 investment today into $10,000 by 2025—this could be your chance to position yourself for massive gains by identifying and focusing on the right projects. How the Crypto Cycle Works Just like traditional markets, the crypto market follows a predictable four-phase cycle: Accumulation Phase Prices stabilize, and savvy investors quietly build their positions. Markup Phase (Uptrend) Demand surges, leading to rapid price increases across the board. Distribution Phase Prices peak as large investors lock in profits, creating volatility. Markdown Phase (Downtrend) Corrections take place, leading to lower prices before the cycle resets. Why Now? The market is transitioning into the acceleration stage of the Markup Phase—a critical period where explosive growth is likely. Altcoins, often overshadowed by Bitcoin, are set to experience dramatic gains as capital flows into the broader crypto market. Position Yourself for Success This is the moment when informed investors can make strategic moves to maximize their returns. By identifying promising altcoins and projects now, you could set yourself up for life-changing gains as the market continues its upward trajectory. Are you ready to seize this opportunity? 🚀
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
29
Dow Jones Futures Typical Movements StudyI have been going over average movements for awhile now and this is just a snippet of the last month. I have noticed there are four main movements. Small movements of 250 ticks, used in small pullbacks and retracements Medium movements of 375 ticks, used in slightly deeper pullbacks and retracements Large movements of 625 ticks, used in expansion moves, either to the upside or to the downside X-Large movements of 750 ticks, used in more substantial moves, either to the upside or to the downside Out of the four, small 250 moves and Large 625 tick moves are the most frequent. One of the ways I am using this information is where to take profits. I know I won't catch the bottom or the top of the move and so, if I can capture the middle 50% then I can use these average movements and cut them in half. If a large expansion move is on average 625 ticks, then 50% of this will be 312 ticks. Therefore, I could expect a pause or pullback at/ around that area.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Understanding Trends and Waves in TradingIntroduction In trading education, recognising price movements is crucial. Prices move in trends, and these trends move in waves. Understanding these waves is essential for successful trading. The Two Types of Waves Impulsive/Primary Trend Comprises a minimum of five waves. Dictates the overall direction of price movement. Corrective/Secondary Trend Comprises a maximum of three waves. Provides insights into the ongoing trend. This phase is the most critical for traders to master. Conclusion To trade successfully in a trending market, it’s vital to learn how to accurately count waves. Mastering this skill can significantly enhance your trading decisions. Best wishes for your trading success!
Education
by Charts247TradingAcademy
5
Silver Anatomy: Elliot Wave Insights PT IIGreetings, Everyone In part two of our silver update, I will dive into the structures of Elliott Wave Theory, focusing on Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves. Let’s break down these components for a deeper understanding. Understanding the Types of Waves Impulse Waves (1-3-5) Impulse waves are powerful, directional moves characterized by strong momentum. These waves typically occur in the direction of the main trend, with Wave 3 often being the most dominant. Corrective Waves (2-4) Corrective waves are pauses or pullbacks in the trend, often seen as sideways price action. They take forms such as: • Flat Patterns • Triangles • Zigzags (a sharp, back-and-forth movement). Using RSI to Analyze Waves The RSI provides valuable insight into wave structures: • Vertical lines mark the RSI peaks corresponding to major impulse waves. • Colored boxes on the RSI panel highlight key areas to watch. Key Impulse Wave Rules • Wave 1: Marks the beginning of the trend reversal, confirmed by the RSI breaking above the zero line and the histogram turning green. • Wave 3: Typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence. Key Corrective Wave Rules • Wave 2: Does not retrace 100% of Wave 1. In this case, note how the RSI dips below the previous impulse level. An expanded flat pattern with a large B-wave exceeding the prior impulse is also evident. • Wave 4: Should not close below the level of Wave 1. Rule of Alternation • If Wave 2 is simple (small), then Wave 4 will likely be complex (large), and vice versa. Support and Resistance Dynamics Observe the green boxes in the price chart marking major pivot points, which often signal the end of corrective waves. These pivots align with critical support and resistance levels, frequently igniting substantial rallies thereafter. Analyzing Bias & Executing Trading Probability In my enthusiasm, I anticipated a significant breakout (bias) at the triangle peak of Wave 5, as outlined in my second silver trading post. I had drawn a triangle breakout expecting an upward move. While my bias led me to the wrong conclusion, my analysis itself wasn’t incorrect—the triangle did break out, but it moved to the downside instead against by bias. As previously mentioned, when a pattern fails, it often leads to dramatic price action in the opposite direction. For those who stayed objective and followed the chart rather than their bias, this presented a prime opportunity. The downside breakout retraced the entire impulse cycle in a remarkably short period of time, showcasing the power of trading without assumptions. It leads to question how can we stay objective while in these trades? The answer I found is to always be referencing key manual & guides. Fibonacci Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer provides a valuable solution to the dilemma I encountered (not sponsored or paid, by the way). In one section, Fischer mentions that “following the Elliott wave concept will lead you to not buy in an uptrend at the end of Wave 3.” To elaborated more on this idea — it is best to avoid buying wave 4s because Wave 5 is sometimes truncated or fails to materialize altogether, leading to a price reversal. This insight answers many questions about why wave 5 is so difficult to trade. Will it extend, will it be shorter? Will it be a .618 measurement of wave 1, 1 exact measurement of wave 1, will it extend to 1.618, or will it fail? One key rule he emphasizes is that, in an Elliott Wave cycle, only three waves may exist under certain conditions—challenging the assumption of a full five-wave sequence. Trading Strategy Improvements 1. Enter at Wave 2 Retracement Levels • Focus on taking a large position at Wave 2 retracement levels, but only after confirmation of a reversal. (Human tendency): We often experience FOMO when prices are high. However, history shows that chasing during high-FOMO moments usually signals a peak. Patience pays off at retracement levels. 2. Pyramid Positions During Wave 3 • Gradually scale aggressively into your position as Wave 3 begins moving with strong momentum. This allows you to capitalize on the high-octane movement of the impulse wave by adding to a winning trade. 3. Exit Around Wave 3.3 or 3.5 • Scale out of your position during the middle or later part of Wave 3. Exiting while the momentum remains strong ensures you lock in gains before the trend begins to fade. Conclusion By combining Elliott Wave Theory with RSI analysis, we gain clearer insight into market dynamics, helping us anticipate potential turning points with greater confidence.
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
2
Thoughts About Elliott Wave: Why the 5 & 3 Model?According to Dow, there are two primary trends in the market, the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend.Both primary trends consist of three phases. Phases of the Primary Uptrend -Accumulation Phase -Markup Phase -Distribution Phase Phases of the Primary Downtrend -Distribution Phase -Panic Phase -Discouraged Selling Phase Note that the distribution phase is common between the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend. The urgent question is: Where does the distribution phase lie? In the primary uptrend or in the primary downtrend? The answer is that this stage occurs during the final stage of the bullish trend. Although the selling (the downtrend) has actually started, it does not appear on the chart that shows the continuation of the bullish trend, as the selling is done in a hidden way, where smart sellers who notice the greedy buying rush from all traders in the market, whether professional or nonprofessional, who heard from the specialized and nonspecialized media about the uninterrupted staggering profits of the stock market. At this phase, all or the vast majority of investors, traders, and fund managers become buyers, either with what they own or in managing money, in addition to margin, in order to catch up or increase profits that continue for a long time. No one believes that it will be cut off or stopped. For sellers to distribute the largest amount of their shares they own, they maintain the upward trend in front of market participants to maintain buyers' hopes. Only a few professionals who are not under the psychological pressure of excessive optimism take note of this sales process. They notice the selling and the start of the real bearish trend (which is not visible on the chart) through negative divergences, whether in volumes or with momentum indicators and market breadth. Rising wedge is the best formation and reflects the distribution phase. At times it is formed in the whole distribution phase or in the last part of it. IFTAUPDATE 2022 Volume 29 Issue 1 By El- Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe
TVC:DJIEducation
by Market_Minds_SM
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis Introduction: This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis. We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns. Rant We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions. Preface Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding. This analysis incorporates: • Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1) • Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2) • Support & Resistance Levels (Blended) Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal Silver Price Peak Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle. Reversal Peak Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline. Downtrend Sequence Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows: 1. Swing Low 2. Lower High 3. Lower Low 4. Lower High 5. Lower Low Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure. Potential Reversal Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point. At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame. In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break. If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
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