The analysis of the behavior of major player Part 1I would very much like to share with you my knowledge about the behavior of large players in the market,
how to notice them and how to use it.
It's very interesting and in fact you can talk about it for a very long time,
people have been studying these strategies for years.
I will try to explain the simplest first, this will be the first part.
If you look at the chart that I have shown, you will see the level underlined with a blue line, this is it, the stops of a major player, in the event of a breakdown of this level, a major player will exit by stops, which means a sale, since closing by stops for the exchange is tantamount to sale. Thus, at this moment, the price is guaranteed to go further down.😉
It was a first part.
Best wishes.
I will happy to see you in next parts😊
Wave Analysis
Wavefront CorrelationI recently rediscovered an indicator I made a while back. If you're familiar with my other indicators, you'll remember they are viewed from the side moving past us. In that view we are looking into a field of waves moving perpendcular to our frame of reference. Here the wave ithe view is if we were standing in front of the wave watching it movING towards us eternally. The red lines are the shorter timeframes, while the higher frequency colors (white, magenta, blue) are the longer timeframes. From this view, it's not only possible to more accurately see what the present wavefield looks like, it is also much easier to see if certain timeframes are correlating.
I sped up 2.5 months of replay data into a short clip and the results are damn interesting!
What do you think? Ever seen an indicator like this? Any thing I should consider?
Will nifty started to uptrend after 3 swings to downWill it nifty started to move uptrend after 3 swing down to 15860 level. In 15 min chart looks like wave 1 as completed and wave 2 ABC structure formed to down side, we can expect wave 2 to downside upto 16950 if crosses below that level wave count are invalid. If nifty started to upside from present level and crosses 17400 than 3 wave starts we can expect nifty to form HH levels.
Disclaimer
Only for educational purposes not recommending anything.
Basket trading for max gains and min losses 🧺 🤑 Many of you probably aren't familiar with a trading strategy called basket trading. I got first introduced to it from my Forex trading days and immediately saw its value. I apply that to Crypto trading to minimize my losses and keep my trades stable and less volatile. It also allows me to harvest profits as targets are reached.
Here are the facts about the market. Market comes across looking random because many cannot quantify the factors that contribute to price movement, and therefore it appears random. We can take that assumption as a fact. Due to various timing factors, the market appears random within a certain time range. We can use this randomness to our benefit. This means if we trade a basket of cryptos that exhibit various timing and trend attributes, then we end up with a single "currency" or asset that tends to move in more of a sinusoidal pattern with a bias towards a direction. Price tends to cross the 0% gain line, often giving us many opportunities to adjust that basket. These adjustments involve taking out profit and breaking even from other coins. If the basket trend is bullish or bearish, that's all you need to make a profit from the basket.
You can use the amazing TradingView feature of combing cryptos quickly to create your basket. More about the feature is here:
Here is a quick tutorial on how to perform this exercise of creating a basket. The more coins you have, the smoother the movement will be, and more often, it will reach the 0% gain level. The advantage here is that this acts as a "stop-loss" without taking a loss, and you can harvest profits with TP limit orders.
Determine the series of coins that you think are bullish or bearish. Stick to only one direction. Let's say for this example; you went with bullish.
Determine the volatility of each coin: meaning, the general % movement of the price that is expected typically.
Use that volatility to determine the % of the investment that should go towards each coin.
Now, create the chart formula based on that percentage, and you got yourself what the basket of currencies looks like.
Here is an example:
BTCUSD, ETHUSD, JASMYUSD, AVAXUSD
BTCUSD->2%, ETHUSD->5%, JASMYUSD->15%, AVAXUSD->9% (not real values)
If I have $1000, I will invest most into BETC and least into JASMYUSD to make my overall basket constant in volatility. This yields about BTCUSDx4, ETHUSDx1.8, JASMYUSDx0.1, AVAXUSDx0.7. If you put $100 in each coin, multiply it by the multiplier, $400 on BTCUSD, $180 on ETH, etc. You can play however you like. You can maximize for higher risk as well.
Now on the TradeView chart, enter the formula for the coin to see the single basket currency made up of your combination: BTCUSD*4+ETHUSD*1.8+JASMYUSD*0.1+AVAXUSD*0.7
I also add each coin, so I see how the coin itself moves relative to the others. You can apply indicators and whatever you like to it and trade it just likes how you would trade anything. All the math that applies to a single chart applies to this basket. I'm yet to see a platform that lets us easily trade complex strategies like this, so I'm making my own for trading purposes. If you know of one, please let me know in the comments so that I can try it out.
If you have any questions, please ask, and I will try my best to answer. If you found this interesting or helpful, please like it! Thank you!
Please keep in mind that this is not a guaranteed way to make profits. There are still risks like the entire crypto market going against you. This happens when there are fundamental changes that affect the market. Please trade at your own risk and play it safe.
Analyst and Trader. What are the differences?👨🎓👩🎓
✅Trading on the market consists of two different, but equally important tasks, namely: market analysis and the ability to trade.
✅Market analysis is a technical or fundamental analysis of price movements in the market, and trading is the ability to competently place orders for the purchase or sale of various market assets in order to make trading as profitable as possible. Most traders do not take into account the difference between market analysis and trading rules. But knowing these differences can significantly increase the profitability of your trading system or, at least, will help to avoid significant mistakes initially.
🟢Analyst or trader?
❗️When making transactions on the stock exchange, traders often consider themselves both an experienced trader and an analyst at the same time, since they perform all the analyses and trading independently. But not every trader can be experienced in both tasks at once. Some stock speculators analyze the market very well, but make mistakes when trading, and vice versa, not strong market analysts successfully make entries and exits from the market.
❗️Therefore, very often, one person can be an excellent market analyst, but his trading system falls apart under the pressure of incorrectly executed transactions (i.e. placement and management of already completed transactions). While another trader may not be strong in market analytics, but has a psychological profile that is ideal for making trades.
⚠️At the same time, both those and others can make a constant profit by following the rules in their trading systems.
🟢Why is this happening?
The thing is that analysis and trading are very different tasks and require different psychological traits. For example, market analysis as a separate task does not bring either profit or loss, since market analysis itself cannot lose capital, so this activity does not carry emotions associated with it (for example, fear or greed). On the other hand, trading, as an isolated task, brings either profit or loss, that is, by making purchases, there is an opportunity to lose partially or completely trading capital. Therefore, those emotions that are not applicable to market analysis are very relevant for trading.
🟢Trade Partnership
❗️One of the solutions to overcome the differences between analysis and trading in the market is to find your opposite and form a potentially very profitable trading partnership. For example, if you are a good market analyst (i.e. you can identify potentially profitable trades), forming a partnership with a trader, i.e. with someone who is not able to perform correct market analysis, but can competently make and manage transactions without succumbing to emotional traps. Such an alliance can be much more beneficial for both.
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What are Moving Averages & how to make money on them?📚
🟢The main rule of using Moving Average is to track the general direction of the moving average: it indicates the dominant trend in the market. It is worth making deals only in the direction of this movement. Such a simple rule makes the moving average method a convenient tool for short-term forecasting.
🟢A universal tool in almost all markets is a simple moving average (SMA) with a 200-day averaging period. A longer-term moving average will allow you to see the global rise or fall of the asset, avoid short-term fluctuations or minor consolidation of the exchange rate. As a rule, short moving averages allow you to react more actively to price movements and are designed to search for short-term trends. When analyzing the price chart on a daily or even shorter interval, many traders use "fast" EMAS with different averaging periods (5, 7, 13, 21, 50).
✅To date, there are many recommendations for the period of the moving average (3, 5, 7, 13, 21, ...), as well as methods of its calculation (SMA, WMA, EMA). The general postulates are as follows:
✅The "faster" the MA (EMA) and the shorter the calculation period (3, 5, 13, ...), the more likely it is to receive false or ambiguous signals;
✅The "slower" the MA (SMA) and the longer the calculation period (50, 100, ...), the more likely the moving average is to lag behind the real state of affairs in the market.
❗️The moving average method is still a universal way to determine the trend in the asset market. Ease of use and unambiguous interpretation of the result allow the investor to determine the prevailing trend with a high degree of probability. This minimizes the risk of making unprofitable deals. The use of the method as an independent tool when deciding on a transaction is controversial, since all possible successful combinations of the intersection of moving averages or the average and the asset price are subject to cyclicity and sometimes give false or ambiguous signals.
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FOREX-The Original Fibonacci versus the CONTRARIAN Fibonacci FROM the FOREX COURSE 101 - Weekly Lesson:
Points to remember about the 2 Fibonaccis:
The ORIGINAL Fibonacci:
1. We use the Original fibonacci to determine TREND DIRECTION!
2. We compare Trend Direction from the Higher TF to the Smaller TF.
3. To enter High Probability trades we should trade Fibonaccis that show alignments!
4. Never Forget: The Gigher TF controls the Smaller TF - yes, the Fibonaccis too!
The CONTRARIAN Fibonacci:
1. We use the CONTRARIAN Fibonacci to Trade Retracements
2. To find the "Confirmed" "C" of the Original Fibonacci and enter 80% Probability Trades!
3. Remember - If you can find a CONTRARIAN Fibonacci with its projected "Sub-D" extension above/below the "A" of the Original Fibonacci" - then you are entering 80%-85% probability Trades!
***Tomorrow - 16-3-2022*** - in our WEEKLY LESSON (2021 Students) we are going to go through some charts and take a closer look on how to trade the two Fibonaccis and talk about Probabilites!
Hope this helps % See you in Class
FXP
Elliott Wave Theory - Motive WavesElliott Wave Theory , developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, proposes that the seemingly chaotic behaviour of the different financial markets isn’t actually chaotic. In fact the markets moves in predictable, repetitive cycles or waves and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers.
The very basics of Elliott Wave Theory ;
The Elliott wave principle at its core consists of motive waves, movement in the direction of the larger trend, and corrective waves, any correction against the main trend. Market prices alternate between a motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend.
Wave analysis offers insights into trend dynamics and helps you understand price movements in a much deeper way and offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for trading opportunities
Motive Waves
Motive waves in general can be categorized as Impulse and Diagonal waves
a- Impulse Waves
Impulse waves consist of five sub-waves in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree.
Elliott proposed that financial price trends, the waves, are created by investor psychology or sentiment and the waves can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers . In adition to using fibonacci retracments and extetion to forcast probable targets, channeling technique is also presented, where channeling technique is used to forecast wave formations and targets using price action .
Disclaimer: besides the rules, the below presented figures displays guidelines that elliott waves may form. Guidelines are tendencies, not set in stone rules
b- Diagonal Waves (Wedges)
Another form of motive waves are diagonals, they appear in the beginning of a larger trend, called leading diagonal and at the end of the larger trend, called ending diagonal
They are five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend within which wave 4 almost always moves into the price territory of (overlaps) wave 1, breaking the rule of impulse motive wave
Diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines
Elliott was careful to note that these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action. They can be used in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis, including technical indicators, to identify specific opportunities.
Technical Indicators
Using various technical indicators among elliott wave practitioners is not so common, except few, probably the common one used is a kind of momentum indicator, such as RSI or MACD , to detect divergencies
Fibonacci retracement and extension drawing tools are essential for elliott wave practitioners. In todays computerized era many of the darawing tool's auto indicator versions are availabe on the trading platforms, such as Auto Fib ( where and how tp apply )
Elliott Wave Oscillator ( EWO ) , is inspired by the Elliott Wave principle and helps counting the waves
Volume and Volume Profile ( Vol / Vol Profile ) combined with price action is esential in technical anlaysis and for elliott wave practitioners helps to identify impulse and correction phases
Other indicators that are referred among elliott wave practitioners
Pitchforks ( how to apply ), Pitchfans , FibFans ( how to apply ), FibChannels ( how to apply ), FibTime , LinReg Channel ( what it is ), Raff Regression Channel ( what it is ), etc
Learn Trend Analysis | Impulse & Retracement Legs 📈
Hey traders,
As you asked me, in this educational post we will discuss some price action basics.
No matter whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader you should be able to execute trend analysis.
You should always know where the market is going; if it is bullish or bearish.
One of the simplest ways to execute trend analysis is to perceive a price chart as a sequence of impulses and retracements.
➖The impulse leg is a trend-following move.
It is characterized by heightened movement dynamics and speed.
Usually the completion point of the impulse:
sets a new lower low in a bearish trend,
sets a new higher high in a bullish trend.
➖A retracement leg is a correctional movement within the trend.
Its’ initial point is the completion point of the impulse or retracement leg and
its completion point might be an initial point of a new retracement leg or of a new impulse leg.
Usually, a retracement leg is characterized by a slow zig-zag movement.
Usually the completion point of the impulse leg:
sets a lower high in a bearish trend,
sets a higher low in a bullish trend.
Perceiving the price chart as the set of impulses, one can easily and objectively identify a global, mid-term and short-term market trend, price action trend-following, reversal and correctional patterns.
What do you want to learn in the next educational articles?
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SPY Elliott Wave 3-11Hello all!
Just posting this for education purposes, maybe for myself as well. Post comments about your disagreements or thoughts.
Looks like a full impulse wave, happened on 3-11, I have not plugged this into the overall Elliott Wave trend so I can not point you in one way or the other. I was working on this for a friend and thought I would post here too.
DO YOU KNOW YOUR INCOME STATEMENTSHello,
Herein a simple way for you to understand your income statements.
Assets are things that are valuable. Liabilities & Equity are obligations to both lenders & owners.
The income statement has two parts being how funds can be created & how they can be used.
Good luck.
How Is The Market Shifting Trading Liquidity?How Is The Market Shifting Trading Liquidity?
The first phase:
With the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, we saw that the market shifted liquidity mainly to safe currencies, USD, CHF, JPY and Gold, OIL (metals in general).
This is a normal scenario that usually happens.
The shift of stock liquidity:
In a war event like the one we are already experiencing between Russia and Ukraine, we all know that the first companies to benefit are the guns and ammunition companies, the Aerospace, and the defense sector in general, etc. The war will require high resources if it escalates further, so these companies are the first to benefit from this situation. So consequently their stock price tends to rise quickly.
2. Given the fact that Russia is one of the largest exporters of oil and gas in the world, this topic would be the second issue.
Here we have the second sector that increases the value of their stocks, "Oil & Gas Integrated", "Oil & Gas Midstream". So everything related to the production, distribution, and services of oil and gas.
Phase 2
As long as Europe is very close to war the eyes of the market are on it.
Free liquidity has shifted to countries far away from Europe that is safer and not economically connected to Russia. Money moved to Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Also the governor of Japan in a press conference last week said that they can be affected by the European economy as they have close business relations. Is that true?
Japan does not want their currency to be too strong as they lose in exporting their goods. So here it comes ... JPY starts depreciating by losing ground as a safe haven currency.
We also have a Swiss bank that is preparing to intervene and also stop the strength of the CHF.
Other economies are trying to do the same through interest rates. Some of them want to raise interest rates due to rapid and large devaluation.
Some others want to weaken their currencies so as not to hurt exports of goods.
Phase 3
Close all your foreign exchange profits and stock investments as the market has already absorbed the war and the economic problems associated with it.
Financial institutions will want to close the profits on their investments as the stock price will not rise indefinitely.
It is the same situation as with pharmaceutical companies during pandemics.
Once Wallstreet players leave the market, then you are alone. So be smart and do not be greedy in these situations.
Phase 4
We will now stage the real economic crisis and the inflationary pressure that is happening.
So now you need to think about the next sectors where you can invest and benefit from the coming events.
#stocksmarket, #forexanalysis, #cryptocurrency, #stockinvesting, and #tradingstrategies
#forex #commoditymarkets #commodities #commodity #stocks #forex #investing #forexanalysis #finance #cmt #cft
GOLD'S NEXT MOVE?Little educational post for you guys! If my analysis is correct & the current uptrend is Wave 5, an effective way to estimate how far this last bullish cycle will go is to go back & look at Wave 1, when Gold first started its uptrend in 2006. Wave 1 & Wave 5 tend to be very similar in how many PIPS they move, with a few hundreds PIPS difference which is very accurate for higher TF analysis.
I have done this on my chart & it shows me where Wave 5 will possibly end before correcting itself over the next few years! Do this for yourself & you'll find the results you're looking for. I have covered out the price it could go to as it'll only be exclusive on the Market Breakdown Report for Investors. Markets are looking juicy for the foreseeable future🦾
FHZN - The power of elliot waves | Volume 2The zurich airport is tough, but in the coming months this toughness will be tested once again! SIX:FHZN
Our last analysis on this share was published on January 12, in which we warned about a potential sell-off.
In this analysis we highlighted the importance of the wedge formation to our subscribers. In the last days the stock fell by more than -20% and we have now left this formation.
Today zurich airport published its earnings and based on them we can evaluate the progress of the company.
The airport was able to slightly reduce its net loss in the past year but disappointed investors with lower revenues than expected .
Revenues were just under 680 million , which is about half of what they were before the Corona crisis. The management announced that a full recovery to the pre-crisis level of 2019 is not expected until the end of 2025. Investors will have to be patient with the company and as most assumed there won't be a dividend payout again this year. This however gives the management the opportunity to direct the money to where it's most needed.
Overall, the airport is recovering in small steps from the shock of the Corona crisis.
The upcoming years will bring further difficulties, but the management will concentrate on navigating the company back to profitability.
Technical explanation of the elliot wave structure:
As mentioned above, the share price has fallen by almost -20% since we last warned of a sell-off. We as Mendenmein Capital see this as another confirmation of our calculations.
Nevertheless, we assume that the share has now expanded a first downward impulse in the white wave (1) and in the coming weeks a slight recovery must be expected in the white wave (2). This wave will lay the foundation for further sell-offs and the target for the next year is located at just 95 swiss francs. The white wave (3) should be able to reach this target without any problems.
After a short recovery in the white wave (4), a final wave (5) will continue to correct towards our final target of 80 swiss francs. We assume that this downward impulse will occupy us in the coming months and years.
In the long term however, we are extremely bullish and the formations of the last years point towards a very large wave I / wave II super cycle. This means that we have a multi-year bull market ahead of us after the completion of wave II, our subscribers are familiar with this term by now. The long-term price target for this stock is 450.- and we at Mendenmein Capital are extremely confident in our optimistic views.
On our website investors can learn more about the zurich airport share and other stocks! www.mendenmein-capital.com
Disclaimer:
According to legal regulations, Mornau-Research is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk.
Mornau-Research cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence.
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If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact us.
Three Black Crows Candlestick Pattern 📉📉📉Three black crows is a phrase used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that may predict the reversal of an uptrend. Candlestick charts show the day's opening, high, low, and closing prices for a particular security. For stocks moving higher, the candlestick is white or green.
🎯 The three black crows candlestick pattern is considered a relatively reliable bearish reversal pattern. Consisting of three consecutive bearish candles at the end of a bullish trend, the three black crows signals a shift of control from the bulls to the bears.
✅ The black crow pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have opened within the real body of the previous candle and closed lower than the previous candle. Often, traders use this indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns as confirmation of a reversal.
✅ Three Black Crows Explained
Three black crows are a visual pattern, meaning that there are no particular calculations to worry about when identifying this indicator. The three black crows pattern occurs when bears overtake the bulls during three consecutive trading sessions. The pattern shows on the pricing charts as three bearish long-bodied candlesticks with short or no shadows or wicks.
In a typical appearance of three black crows, the bulls will start the session with the price opening modestly higher than the previous close, but the price is pushed lower throughout the session. In the end, the price will close near the session low under pressure from the bears.
This trading action will result in a very short or nonexistent shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure sustained over three sessions to be the start of a bearish downtrend.
✅ Limitations of Using Three Black Crows
If the three black crows pattern involves a significant move lower, traders should be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation before a further move lower. The best way to assess the oversold nature of a stock or other asset is by looking at technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), where a reading below 30.0 indicates oversold conditions, or the stochastic oscillator indicator that shows the momentum of movement.
Many traders typically look at other chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakdown, rather than using the three black crows pattern exclusively. As a visual pattern, it is open to some interpretation such as what is an appropriately short shadow.
Do you use this candlestick pattern ?
GBPUSD | Why This Pattern Today?A corrective pattern like the descending triangle usually begin to form when the price is pausing from the predominant trend movement.
This happens too often when any big news is expected to be published in the near future.
Like today that we have NFP
1. Price makes the first Impulsive move
2. The next stage is the corrective movement. Here we can see market players waiting for the news to come out or for a specific situation to be clarified.
3. During these moments we see that the buyers are positioned at the bottom and the sellers at the top of the support area.
4. Until the price breaks above or below the pattern, we will never know if this pattern will change trend, or it will continue to move with the prevailing trend.
6. Trading within the model is risky but can be done with strict rules and commercial management.
6. The Descending Triangle is usually a bearish continuation pattern.
Thank you and Good Luck!
What is an Order Block? 🎯Why are order blocks formed?
Order blocks are created when a breakout move doesn't go to plan.
If banks get caught in a fake breakout move, they aren't going to sit and cry about it.
They are going to push the price back up/down so that they can close out of their negative positions to join the correct side of the market.
Stop using order blocks that have no logic, widen your chart perspective.
Japanese Candlesticks: learning to read and understand🕯
✅Japanese candlesticks are the most popular way to read the price movement on charts. They are visual, easy to learn and the main thing is that they work.
✅The first mention of candle patterns can be found in the Japanese rice trader Homma Munehisa in the 1700s. Almost 300 years later, candles were rediscovered by Steve Neeson in his book titled "Japanese Candles. Graphical analysis of financial markets".
✅Candlestick charts provide much more information compared to linear charts and are currently the preferred market analysis tool for traders and investors.
What are Japanese candles?
🟢Each of the candles tells us four facts about itself: the opening price, the maximum price movement, the closing price, and the minimum price movement.
⏺A bullish candle is formed when the price rises. In financial markets, the term bullish means a long position or a buy.
⏺A bearish candle is formed when the price falls. In financial markets, the term bearish refers to a short position or sale.
❗️The body of the candle is the space between the opening and closing of the candle. If the body is green, it means that the closing price of the candle is higher than the opening price. If the color is red, it means the closing price is lower than the opening price of the candle.
❗️Candle wicks represent the highest or lowest points that the candle has reached.
🟢Each candle represents a selected time frame or time interval during which it opens and closes. For example, on a 4-hour chart, candlesticks open and close every 4 hours.
🟢If we line up several candlesticks, we can compare them with a linear chart. Candle wicks also show price fluctuations. Thus, we immediately get the maximum information that we need for effective market analysis.
⚠️A trader who knows how to analyze and interpret candlestick patterns or patterns already understands the actions of financial market participants a little better.
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