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Wave Analysis

What makes trading different from gambling? [No Trading Zone]#Notradingzone #Tocademy #PrincipleTrading #Confluence Hello traders from all over the world. Observing thousands of retail traders during my lessons, lectures, and consulting, I realized that a lot of novice traders in contemporary market have some bad trading habits. Especially if you are a daily trader or scalper who usually take small and many short-term trades, please pay attention! Someday in the future, hopefully, you will eventually realize that the best and most ideal position in the world is to take neutral position. What I mean here doesn't imply that you should not trade at all and rest the whole time. After entering this world of trading, within the process of becoming a mature trader there is a time when you realize the power of the TA(Technical Analysis). Once you start to practically utilize what you have studied and even see how the numbers on your account grow, you literally become mesmerized. This magical thing called ‘Trading’ would feel like the ONE you have been searching for the whole life. I know, calm down! It feels great when the price reacts to the lines and indicators you have drawn and put on the chart by yourself. In this particular stage, I see many traders sit in front of the monitors or watch their smartphones all day long, being addicted to trading. Well, here’s a truth that I deducted through years of my trading career and the data that I have researched; addictive traders hardly become successfully. Always remember that our ultimate purpose of trading is to solely make money, not just for fun. Of course, making money would be fun but for some of you, the priorities of these two are switched. Before you even notice, you might find yourself gambling rather than trading. Now put your hands down, close your eyes, and think for a minute. Are you anxious when you are not in a position? Do you frequently regret that you closed your position too early? Do you become angry when you miss big long or short? Are you so urgent to recover your loss as soon as possible? Does trading disturb your primary work? (Hard to focus both, isn’t it?) Does trading masses up your lifestyle and relationship with people? If you replied ‘Yes’ to majority of the questions, please cancel all of the pending orders right now, turn off the chart, get some rest, and forget about trading just for a while. I understand more than anyone that you are full of desire to chase all these micro trends or minor waves in 1 minute chart. Especially those who are trying to recover all the losses you made this week ASAP, before you encounter a bigger loss, trust me, take some time, and cool your head. I am sorry to say but you might be more of a gambler than a trader right now. Sure, there would be few that still do fine with all those conditions but if you eventually keep ending up bad due to excessive entries or lose entire seed at one cue after series of consecutive wins, your addiction might be interfering your judgment. Irrational trading decisions are the biggest risk that human traders have to face and restraining our emotions during trading is integral. (Please click the image/link below for details) As the image below indicates, since we humans cannot perfectly control our emotions every single day, the total number of trades and the net performance are not always proportional in a short-term period. In other words, spotting thousands of entries in a single day does not always lead to daily accumulative profit. Not only you pay high transaction fees, but your physical and mental exhaustion can lower your concentration seducing your irrationalized perceptions to break your trading principles. Accordingly, the more excessive amount of time spent looking into the chart, the more likely our logical sense becomes numb and vague which can easily cause FUD and FOMO. Researches have shown that the relationship between the entry rates and the performance (per certain period of time) of retail traders is averaged out as a curved shape with a local maximum coordinate. This peak point implies the ideal amount of profit and entries of a trader. It would be different for each trader depending on their preferences, capabilities, and other circumstances. For instance, 3~4 entries and $10,000 profit per day might be ideal set or oriented goals for some traders, while 10~15 entries and $100 profit per day might be those for other traders. Hence it is important for us to figure out each of our own boundary and refer to it when designing strategies and PnL first of all. Therefore, a well systematically designed strategy that can effectively weigh and quantify technical signals based on the scientific and reliable evidences must be adapted. Once validities of each are scaled, we would be able to comprehend which signals are relatively more reliable than others. Shown on the main image above, even though entering a 80% credibility zone will provide low entry rate, higher RR ratio and win-rate can be achieved. We need to train ourselves to be able to call “No Trading Zone” when the identified trends and derived price action zones do not meet the minimum standards of our own. Some of the talented and successful daily traders I’ve met are not very much different from most of us here. They analyze the market and design trading setups just like we do. If anything, that made them superior, they have a proficient sense for spotting the “No Trading Zone”. They are amazingly good at consistently stepping aside if the signals are not reliable enough or do not meet their standards. They know time is on their side and they wait in patient. It's just simply deciding whether to take certain trades or not, filtering out some of less potential entries and maintaining no position when they are less convinced about the signals, but these tiny differences ultimately result in a huge difference in performances. Investors who trade with technical charts like us can measure the credibility of signals based on the confluency of technical signs and indicators. Here are two traders: trader A and B. Trader A considers eight signals (techniques, indicators, and theories). For example, trader A observes volumes, trendline, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, Bollinger band, Ichimoku cloud, RSI, Stochastic, and Elliott wave theory. Trader A won’t enter position unless majority of those signals are giving signs simultaneously relatively at the same price and time. On the other hand, trader B only considers trendline and moving averages. If only one of the two gives a signal, trader B enters immediately. Which trader would be more successful? Even though entry rate is low, trader A would be able to secure higher RR ratio and win-rates because the trends and price action zones that trader A has deducted through TA are more reliable than those deducted by trader B. As mentioned, Confluence Zone is an area where multiple technical evidences overlap at the same price or time period. In TA world which is 2-dimensional, a price action zone would be expressed with a dot, a line or a box. When multiple indicators signal certain trends and PRZs both in price and time wise, we need to keep our eyes on those coordinates. We as a trader, need to utilize these confluence zones which indicate major price range within certain time period, to design trading setups. The more overlapping elements there are, the higher RR ratio and win-rate we can secure. And this is what makes gambling different from trading. Both of us fight with numbers, but we can control that numbers while gambler cannot manipulate the RR ratios and the win-rates they are given. Thanks for reading my post. I will see you guys next time! Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are the greatest motivations for me to write more posts!
Education
by Tommy_Trader
4
Description of Each Indicator WITHIN Phoenix Ascending IndicatorHi Everyone! Josue, has been a "gift" sent to us all in regard to updates to Phoenix Ascending indicator and Bad Ass B-Bands Indicator. Josue, has provided a more descriptive explanation of each indicator within Phoenix Ascending. So, I'm sharing this with everyone here today. Also, I'm no longer going to say, "Blue LSMA," "Red RSI," "Green RSI" and "White Energy." Instead, I'm going to say, "Blue Line," "Red Line," "Green Line" and "Energy." This will make it easier for me to say during publications with less syllables to say. Here's Josue's brief description: I am going to provide further information regarding the Phoenix Ascending indicator, based on my research, so this kind of discussion regarding what each indicator line is better understood in the future. All the lines inside the Phoenix Ascending (P.A.) Indicator are based on the GREEN line. This is the conclusion of my research: # Phoenix ascending ## Green line The Green line is the average of three indicators: 1. Wave trend oscillator Refs: usethinkscript.com 2. Money flow indicator www.investopedia.com 3. RSI over three candles. The following indicators are also computed inside P.A. script: 1. Money flow index. 2. Williams %R. However, they are not used to compute the green line in the final version. ## Red line It is a simple moving average of the green line over six candles. ## Blue line It is a linear regression of the green line over the last 32 candles. ## White energy It is the difference of the green and red lines multiplied by two and centered around 50 Hence, the energy (or momentum) tells as the difference between the current green line, and its average over the last six candles. This idea is similar to how MACD is used to find buy/sell points. This is why I have mentioned multiple times in the past that the energy is just the difference between the green line and the red line. If you have time, check all the information I have posted above to have a further understanding of the P.A. (Phoenix Ascending) indicator. If you are wondering how I (Josue) found this information, I simply followed the P.A. (Phoenix Ascending) script's code and looked for the scripts of the cited authors in the script. The indicators that form the green line, and the calculation of the red line has been tuned by David. So you will find some minor differences. Also, the blue line was added by David as he has mentioned in the past. This is the original God Mode Oscillator indicator End of Josue's explanation... Me (David) talking again: I want to thank Josue again for his due diligence and attention to detail. I hope this was helpful to everyone and I look forward to saying less "syllables" in future video publications. LOL As always, you know the drill, Let's all "Stay Awesome!" David PS - I first began playing around with Godmode in September, 2016 (changing inputs, adding an LSMA, etc...) In April, 2017 I posted my first publication for Godmode indicator and some changes I made to it. I've learned a LOT since then. Of course I also added "Bad Ass B-Bands" since then. Why? Phoenix Ascending (Godmode) helped me determine the "odds" for potential movement of price action going up or down AND for how long price action could potentially "continue" up OR "continue" down. The "issue" was Phoenix Ascending (Godmode) could not tell us WHERE the price action could go WHEN it moves up OR down. THIS is where "Bad Ass B-Bands" came into play to help solve that dilemma. Here is that first post from April, 2017:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by WyckoffMode
21
Higher Timeframe analysis Hi, fellow traders I find that majority of traders have common problems when doing MTF (multi-timeframe) analysis, usually, most of the traders are applying the same strategy all over the timeframes, so they end up using entry strategy on higher timeframes, and then also on lower timeframes, which puts then in an ever-spinning situation, where they end up being too early or too late and flip flop all over the place. it is important to understand : 1) you need flow / structure / direction analysis 2) that will enable to create trade plan 3) based on trade plan you execute your trading strategy Regardless what is trading strategy: Elliot wave correction waves, harmonic waves, candle patterns, confluence of indicators, pivot points .... what ever. Strategies are mainly not problematic. What is problematic is where you use them. On the internet there is this false theory that strategies go through periods with profitable performance and that this profitable performance periods need to make up/cover up for the losing performance period. That Idea is generally false. for Example: If on given day,EUR/USD was trending LONG, from 1.038 to 1.064 value, in London Session. Every strategy that gave LONG trade signal between 1.038 to 1.05 was highly likely correct, and trader pocketed few pips of profit. THIS is not because of trading strategy, but because trader took LONG trades in UP MOVING DIRECTION. Major problem with strategies is that they are used all over the place cross all timeframes. If Price is moving up, majority of strategies that gave long signal in that UP MOVE , were correct, this has nothing to do with Elliot wave, or RSI, or MACD or Pivots. IF was long signal in long direction. If we now return to beginning of this post: Based on flow/structure/direction/bias analysis you can create you trade plan. For Example: EURUSD was trending SHORT, it stoped at 1.035. Based on manipulation of LOW (price broke short, than imediatly retrace back to 1.035 and is now holding around 1.035 but above it) You can assume that there is: A) no selling interest B) buying value Trader can't know which one it is, but can assume and speculate on future direction. Out of this information trader can create Trade plan. FOR EXAMPLE: take every opportunity LONG between 1.035 and 1.065. Many times traders MIX zig zag drawings , with trade plan. Now that the trader has some idea of what might happen. He/She can open up his strategy. And take only the trade signals in direction of his trade plan, within the given range. Meaning if speculation is that High will be at 1.065, taking a long trade at 1.06 would be too late. But taking long between 1.035 and 1.05 will give enough room to at least scale out if not closing the entire trade. On the picture above, you can see what I use to determine direction. I seek potential Buying and selling values on HTF, after selling or buying value is confirmed I take trades in that direction on much smaller timeframe until Price action on HTF changes. Cheers
Education
by ForexVizionist
1
EURO under pressure - Key element to watchEURO under pressure - Key element to watch Context : Since 2000 EUR/USD is evolving between 0,82 and 1,60 providing two clear floor and cap level following the trend of global macro economy and the strategies deployed in the differents major central banks. The last past weeks following the decision to lower the Quantative Easing, the different actions took in the world in order to control the inflation and the good figure confirming the pursuit of the accumulation of the growth (even slower than last year) in the develop countries - The consensus for the Euro were quiet clear => main research highlighted 1,08/1,12 as strong support area and 1,18/1,23 as strong resistance for a further trading range without significant element for EUR or USD to take significant advantage regarding Growth, inflation and monetary policy. Today the situation is a bit different with less visibilty regarding the situation in Ukraine and even if we can exclude potential risk of global war, we can't ignored the risk about bilateral sanction between NATO countries and Russia. It means significant problem with energy/metals/commodities supply and price, political destabilisation, cyber attack, etc... This kind of modification take time to be absorbe and modified in order to set up a new strategy were russia will stay isolated from global economy for a while. The first economy to be impacted will be definitely the Europe in this crisis and the EURO since one week is in a free fall mode. So what to understand from EURUSD chart and what to focus on? : - Only a Weekly Chart Basis 1/ The previous upside trend ABC 0,82 to 1,60 has been follow by a consolidation in ABC towards 1,02 (or a construction of the long-term downside swing within a huge triangle) 2/ For now the ABC downside pattern within the bearish channel seems to be finished with the test of the 1,02 support - Then we are evolving within a range/triangle dynamic (Blue Frame) ---> That the graphical situation illustrating the context above. 3/ If the ABC downside pattern is not finished we gonna see a downside breakout from the triangle/range structure on going (inside the blue frame) to open further downside risk ----> Risk = Irregular running Range (Test of the 1,0075/0,9750) ----> Risk = poursuit of the bearish channel within a complex ABC X ABC pattern towards 0,8450 4/ RSI indicators is approaching support but didn't reached the previous oversold area where bullish reaction started = It is more likely to see more bearish momentum to be developed. 5/ Moving averages are now capping the market at 1,1530 Analysis Regarding the key elements and giving more weight to the Waves structures and the recurrence of Fibonacci levels, we can still giving more credit to see a development of a further trading range (blue frame) than a free fall of the Euro within the bearish channel towards 0,8450. Where it is more tricky to to have conviction is between a range in irregular with the test of parity before swinging up or triangle pattern with 1,0750 as key support before developing a new upside swing The key resistance is for now clearly set at 1,1530 and only a break out of this resitance can lower the downside risk significantly. Trading => Intraday/multi days traders will use 1,0750 as stop loss level to catch the dip and play agressive recovery with for now the Moving Average as Target to watch => Mid-term Institutional trader seems already in restructuration of the strategy by activating action to hedge the commodities upside risk and the pressure on Europe, so i would say that the hedge in place is between 1,0750/0,97 for the downside risk and 1,1530 (Neutrality area protection to adjust option)
Education
by JeanJean1983
Don’t bite the bait. Time is money. This is a case of comparative advantage. Which means the less time it takes the coin to produce oil or energy, maybe even transactions. All will go down and then pop back up, much like a sinking ship. Within the next 5 hours, an entry point will be present. It’s time to glean for Q2, because after this the prices will hit an all time high and then go back down until July. A lot will assume now is too soon, but yesterdays price isn’t todays price. However, the cup and handle has presented its self. Now the next sign of equilibrium the price will make will be like a Nike check. Or a Wolfe wave. The eagle has left the nest. 2. API CRUDE OIL U.S.: anything under 5 is a sink. Forecast is in the -1.0 range. TOTAL VEHICLE CAR SALES: Elon and Twitter Don’t hire the bait just yet.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Traliciaa
2
Keep your trading charts clean!🧹 ✅Keeping Charts Clean: Since a trader's charting platform is his or her portal to the markets, it is important that charts improve rather than hinder a trader's market analysis. Easy-to-read charts and workspaces (the entire screen, including charts, news feeds, order entry windows, etc.) can improve a trader's situational awareness, allowing him to quickly decipher market activity and react to it. Most trading platforms allow you to largely customize the color and design of the chart, from the background color, style and color of the moving average to the size, color and font of the words that appear on the chart. Setting up clean and visually appealing charts and workspaces helps traders use indicators effectively. ✅Information overload: Many modern traders use multiple monitors to display multiple charts and order entry windows. Even if six monitors are used, you should not consider every square inch of the screen as technical indicators. Information overload occurs when a trader tries to interpret so much data that in fact they are all lost. Some people call this analytical paralysis; if too much information is presented, the trader will most likely not be able to respond. One way to avoid information overload is to exclude any extraneous indicators from the workspace; if you don't use it, lose it – this will help reduce clutter. Traders can also view charts to make sure they are not burdened with multicollinearity; if multiple indicators of the same type are present on the same chart, one or more indicators can be deleted. ✅Tips for organizing: Creating a well–organized workspace using only relevant analysis tools is a process. The set of technical indicators that a trader uses may change from time to time depending on market conditions, strategies used and trading style. ❗️On the other hand, charts can be saved if they are configured in a user-friendly form. There is no need to reformat the charts every time the trading platform closes and reopens. Trading symbols can be changed together with any technical indicators without disturbing the color scheme and layout of the workspace. ✅Recommendations for creating easy-to-read diagrams and workspaces include: ⏺Colors. The colors should be easy to view and provide great contrast so that all data can be easily viewed. In addition, one background color can be used for order entry charts (the chart that is used to enter and exit a trade), and a different background color can be used for all other charts of the same symbol. If more than one symbol is traded, you can use a different background color for each symbol to simplify data isolation. ⏺Layout. Having more than one monitor helps to create a comfortable workspace. One monitor can be used for entering orders, and the other for price charts. If the same indicator is used on several charts, it is recommended to place similar indicators in one place on each chart using the same colors. This makes it easier to find and interpret market activity on individual charts. ⏺Sizes and fonts. Bold and clear font makes it easier for traders to read numbers and words. Like colors and layout, font style is a preference, and traders can experiment with different styles and sizes to find a combination that creates the most visually pleasing result. Once convenient labels are found, fonts of the same style and size can be used on all diagrams to ensure continuity. ⚠️It is important to note that technical analysis deals with probabilities, not certainty. There is no combination of indicators that accurately predicts market movements in 100% of cases. While too many indicators or improper use of indicators can blur a trader's view of the markets, traders who use technical indicators carefully and effectively can more accurately determine trading attitudes with high probability, increasing their chances of success in the markets. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
24
1977 Interactive Double Zigzag Elliott Wave TheoryS&P 500 Index (SPX) Trying to dive into some Elliott wave theory and I have a more "interactive" chart to present based off of historical data. I chose this sequence and timeframe because it seems easiest to understand with confirmed examples from some of my own reading materials. This was notated by previously known EWT masters to be a "Double Zigzag" corrective wave, in a bull market. I have taken the time to attempt to notate the subdivisions more clearly. This may not be perfect, but it is the best I can provide of a learning resource at this moment from my current understanding of EWT. The wave degrees may be slightly wrong but I think the wave count is technically correct as long as the first wave C of the first move down is actually some sort of diagonal. I also speculated that it could be a triple-three but I think a diagonal impulse makes more sense in that phase of wave C. Thanks for checking it out! Follow for more EWT ideas! My Elliott wave analyses could be wrong at any moment , this is practice solely for educational purposes. Please do your own research as always! Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
TVC:SPXEducation
by Hambooger
Pattern Trading\EW Impulse BTC 2018-20 ExplainedPattern trading with the knowledge of how to set targets and an understanding of busted patterns and their respective probabilities can lend accurate data with which to build stratagems for long term investing. I believe targets are eventually met and often lead into other patterns that create new targets along the way. A long term trader\investor must be patient with the market and wait for conditions to be met. Set your targets as you journey along with PA. Here we see a series of LTF events carving out a cup on the HTF along the way. The handle itself, after a pullback, triggered the 1st EW impulse wave which led to a wave 5 peak of 64k. For a complete guide into pattern trading, busted patterns, EW analysis and candlestick patterns check out www.thepatternsite.com. The site has a wealth of information for trading. I recommend knowing and understand Reversal, Continuation and Bilateral patterns and how to use them to set targets. Also know the odds of single, double, and triple busted patterns with each type of triangle and EW principles. Thank you for taking time out of your day to read this, I wish you well on your trading journey. If you have any questions please feel to ask, I'll do my best to answer them ASAP.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Happy_Candles
Why do I need a stop loss and how to set it?📈 ❗️A stop loss is a limit order that protects you from further losses when the price moves against your position. Correctly used stop loss: 🟢Allows you not to lose the entire deposit in one transaction. 🟢Liquidates losses and frees margin for new transactions. 🟢Minimizes possible losses. ✅Trading with a stop loss limits your losses and saves your trading deposit from a sudden price movement that is not in your favor. You can perceive a stop loss as a kind of insurance. You have to constantly pay small premiums, but insurance will protect you from large monetary losses in case of sudden market movements against your position. ✅The rules for setting a stop loss are often misunderstood in conventional retail. However, it should be clear that you can never enter a trade without a stop loss. Not only because you risk losing too much on one trade, but you also easily fall victim to emotional trading mistakes. ✅When you know where your stop loss is (and why you are placing it there), you will feel less tempted to break your stop loss rules and are more likely to stick to your original plan. 🟡What are the ways of setting stops? There are three ways to set stop losses that can be used in trading: 1️⃣Volatility based stop loss. 2️⃣Time based stop loss. 3️⃣Structure based stop loss. 1️⃣Volatility based stop loss. The volatility stop loss takes into account the current price volatility in the market. The indicator that measures volatility is the average true range or the ATR indicator. You need to determine the current ATR value and multiply it by the coefficient of your choice. 2️⃣Time based stop loss The time stop determines when to exit the trade depending on the time that has passed since the start of the position opening. Instead of exiting the market depending on the value of the price, you exit after a certain amount of time has passed. 3️⃣Structure based stop loss. The structural stop loss takes into account the current state of the market relative to the levels. For example, the price usually reverses from the support level and goes up. Therefore, the stop loss can be placed under the support level. In this method, you know exactly when you will be wrong if the market structure is broken. On the other hand, if the levels are far apart, you will need a fairly large stop loss. Therefore, you will have to reduce the position size in order to maintain the current level of risk. ⚠️Stop losses should not be used in situations where the reasons for the transaction are exclusively fundamental. The price should have the opportunity to "take a walk" before the idea is implemented. Risk management is carried out by selecting the optimal share of the portfolio allocated to the transaction. Often, stop-losses are not used in long-term portfolio investment based on an unambiguous fundamental approach. ❗️Stop losses should be used in transactions where there are clear technical grounds for its placement. In such strategies, many adhere to the tactic that the potential profit exceeds the possible loss in a ratio of at least 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 (this is individual). Stop-losses are necessary for speculative trades with large "shoulders" and/or trades with a small movement potential, where the filigree execution of entry and exit is important. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
9
Elliott Wave Theory - Corrective WavesThe Elliott Wave Principle at its core consists of motive waves, movement in the direction of the larger trend, and corrective waves, any correction against the main trend. Market prices alternate between a motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend Please refer to Elliott-Wave-Theory - Motive-Waves post covering rules and tendencies of motive waves, participants psychology at every stage of an motive wave and how to identify/forcast them using both fibonacci relations as well as channeling technique (price action). This post is about Corrective waves . Corrective waves have a lot more variety and less clearly identifiable compared to Motive waves and are an important component of the Elliott Wave Theory. Corrective waves needs more attention and to be mastered to become a successfull Elliott wave practitioner Corrective Waves Corrective waves, consist of three—or a combination of three—sub-waves that make net movement in the direction opposite to the trend of one larger degree There are many corrective patterns ranging from simple to complex yet they are just made up of three very simple easy-to-understand formations Disclaimer: below presented figures displays guidelines that elliott waves may form. Guidelines are tendencies, not set in stone rules a - ZigZag Corrective Wave (5-3-5) Consist of three sub-waves against the main trend and labeled as ABC. ZigZag is a 5-3-5 structure internally b - Flat Corrective Wave (3-3-5) Consist of three sub-waves against the main trend and labeled as ABC. The labelling is the same as ZigZag, the difference is in internal structure. Flat is a 3-3-5 structure internally and differs from ZigZag in the subdivision of the wave A. There are three different types of Flats: Regular, Running and Expanded Flats. c - Triangle Corrective Wave (3-3-3-3-3) Triangle formations are corrective patterns that are bound by either converging or diverging trend lines. Corrective structure consist of five sub-waves labelled as ABCDE, subdivision of a triangle is 3-3-3-3-3 Triangle corrective waves types can be listed as : Ascending, Descending, Symmetrical, and Expanding Triangles d - Complex Corrective Waves - Double (3-3-3) and Tripple Three (3-3-3-3-3) Double three is a sideways combination of two corrective patterns, labelled as WXY Triple three is a sideways combination of three corrective patterns, labelled as WXYXZ Please refer to Difference between ABC and WXY , for further details and structures of Complex Corrective waves as well as the differences between Simple corrective structures The Elliott Wave Theory provides constructive insight that can help technical analysts monitor and understand the movements of financial asset prices over the short and long term. Please note that these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action. They can be used in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis, including technical indicators, to identify specific opportunities. Technical Indicators Ocsillators to detect divergencies (includes 15 different ocsillator) : OSCs Elliott Wave Oscillator : EWO Auto Fibonacci Retrecment/Extentions : Auto Fib Retrecment-Extentions Volume Profile : Volume-Profile-and-Volume-Indicator Other indicators that are referred among elliott wave practitioners Pitchforks ( how to apply ), Pitchfans , FibFans ( how to apply ), FibChannels ( how to apply ), FibTime , Linear-Regression-Channel ( what it is ), Raff Regression Channel ( what it is )
Education
by dgtrd
30
How to use different types of Fibonacci in TradingViewWave Relationships and their relation by Fibonacci Ratios are among the most helpful tools for target prediction. There are different types of Fibonacci and different tools with different names in different software packages. This may make users somehow confused . Here, we try to shed some light on various mostly used Fibonacci types and explain their usage for target prediction. Also we explain their related tool in TradingView and their way of implementations. As shown on the chart, there are four main types of Fibonacci : 1- Internal Retracement 2. External Retracement (Extension) 3. Expansion 4. Projection Before going through details, it is worth to mention that knowing wave relationships is a key to implement Fibonacci tools accurately. Different types of wave relationships is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, for simplification, we show most simple type of wave cycle which is ascending complete cycle with one 5 leg up impulse and one abc form of correction . Also, we try to explain more typical Fibonacci Ratios for target prediction and skip less often ones. 1. Internal Retracement: This is simply for calculation of the amount of correction in the main trend. It means we can predict where a counter trend correction may end. As shown on the chart, it can be used for target prediction of wave 2 and 4 in an up trend and also wave B in a down trend. It can also be used for calculation of end of wave C which is the end of correction of whole up going wave. Green arrows on the picture show the direction of using this tool which is "Fib Reracement" in TradinView. For example, we put first point at the start of wave 1 and second point at the end of this wave for obtaining possible targets for wave 2 and so on. Wave 2 can end at 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement levels of wave 1. Fibonacci levels at which wave 2 ends can send us a signal about the amount of next waves. This is again beyond the scope of this publication. Wave 4 can typically end at 0.382 or 0.5 Retracement of wave 3. Less and more amount of Retracements are also possible, but those make wave relations more complicated and does not match with our simple shown example. Wave B typically corrects 0.382 , 0.5 and 0.618 of wave A in a simple zigzag correction. More Retracements signals for more complicated corrections e.g a flat correction. Wave C Retracement levels are similar to wave 2 in shown wave cycle since it is end of a larger degree wave 2. 2. External Retracement: This Fibonacci which is also called " Extension" can be used for calculation of end of wave 3 or 5 in an up trend and end of wave C ( which is end of whole correction) in a down trend. We have same tool as internal retracement in TradingView however ,unlike internal Retracement, an extension should be drawn from a high to a low in an up trend and vice versa as shown by green arrows on the related figure. Wave 3 Fibonacci Ratios by extension depends on the amount of wave 2 correction. For example, 1.618 or 2.618 extension of wave 2 can be the target for wave 3. Robert. C. Miner has proposed a very useful table for targets using external retracement. Wave 5 typical targets are 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 extensions of wave 4. This ratios are also the same for calculation of end of wave C. 3. Expansion: Based on my experience, Fibo expansion is most useful when we have over extended waves for example over extended wave 3. In this case , 1.618 or even 2.618 Fibo levels can be the typical targets. Related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fib Extension. Please note that this tool in TradingView is a three point Fibonacci while expansion is two point Fibonacci tool. Therefore, Implementing this tool for obtaining Expansion levels is a little tricky. For example, for calculation of wave 3 we should put first point at the start of wave 1 and double click on end of wave 1. There are also more details in implementing Fibo expansion for example we have different types of Fibo expansion. We can skip details here to keep this publication as simple as possible. 4. Projection: This is the only 3 points Fibonacci that we have. Some software packages call this Fibonacci as Expansion !!. Its related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fibo Extension. It is a very useful tool for calculation of end of wave 3, 5 and C. Again green arrows show how to use this tool . For example, For wave 3 target calculation we set first point at the start of wave 1, second point at end of wave 1 and third point at the end of wave 2 or start of wave 3. 1.618 and 2.618 Fibo levels are typical for end of an extended wave 3 when using Fibo projection. 100 % Projection of wave 1 from low of wave 4 is a typical one for end of wave 5 target. Also 0.382 or 0.618 projection of wave 1-3 from low of wave 4 is a helpful ratio for wave 5 target calculation. For a wave C, most common projection is 100 % of wave A from top of wave B. How to make a Potential Reversal Zone ( PRZ) : We can make our potential reversal zone stronger by combining all proposed tools . Take another look at the figures. What can we see? yes. We know four tools now for calculation of end of wave C. Suppose how strong a possible buy zone can be when 4 different tools suggest it as potential reversal target ! Hope this to be helpful. Please do not hesitate to ask questions if you feel need to ask. Good luck every one.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by SaeedSajedi
3
Running triangle and Leading DiagonalsTriangles are corrective patterns and diagonals are motive patterns. Upon completing a triangular pattern the trend resumes. Ending diagonal marks the end of a major wave or a trend and signals upcoming trend reversal or major correction. Leading diagonal marks the start of a major wave or a trend after a major correction or reversal to previous trend. After a leading diagonal, a short correction can be expected before the trend resumes in the direction of leading diagonal. In the previous post, the comparison is between running triangle and ending diagonals. This post compares running triangle and leading diagonals. Chart1: Running triangle and leaning diagonal in uptrend As mentioned the comparison is in an uptrend. Accordingly upward move is termed as directional move and move to the downside is termed as non-directional. A running triangle has non-directional momentum ie faster moves to the downside (wave A, C and E) than the upward moves (Waves B and D). These non-directional moves donot retrace the previous move completely. On the contrary, Leading diagonal has directional momentum ie faster moves to the upside (waves 1, 3 and 5) in the direction of trend and these upward moves completely retrace the previous non-directional corrective moves (wave 2 and 4). Chart2: Running triangle and leading diagonal in downtrend As mentioned the comparison is in a downtrend. Accordingly downward move is termed as directional move and move to the upside is termed as non-directional. A running triangle has non-directional momentum ie faster moves to the upside (wave A, C and E) than the downward moves (Waves B and D). These non-directional moves donot retrace the previous move completely. On the contrary, Leading diagonal has directional momentum ie faster moves to the downside (waves 1, 3 and 5) in the direction of trend and these downward moves completely retrace the previous non-directional corrective moves (wave 2 and 4).
Education
by Hari-Ram-Kumar
What is a breakout? #breakout #Candlestick #TA #Tocademy Hello. This is Tommy. The lecture material I prepared today is a concept that must be well informed by TA(Technical Analysis) traders, especially in recent market where untraditional patterns, price actions and trends, as we call ‘scam moves’ occur all the time. I bet you are familiar seeing retail traders or chart analysts shouting “breakout!”. In order to derive market trends and price action/momentum, we find millions of technical variables such as trendline, channel, Fibonacci retracements, pivot levels, and other indicators, etc. Then we seek for behavior of price action by observing whether these variables are kept valid (not broken) or become invalid as soon as they are broken. Understanding and utilizing this behavior, we make trading decisions by deducting optimal zones to enter position(support/resistance), set stoploss/target price(bottom/top), and statistically giving weights on particular scenarios. In TA world, breakout means that the price has pierced through certain variables. It is commonly known that when the technical factors are broken, additional price momentum is expected towards the direction of the breakout. As the example above, let’s say that we found a falling trendline that are being formed, meaning that at certain point or area, trendline keeps pushing the price down forming LH(Lower High)s. As soon as the price pierce through the trendline, meaning that the trendline failed rejection, we say “trendline is broken above” and can expect more bullish rally. The direction of the trend would be vice versa when trendline under the price is broken below. So, we buy when PA is broken above and sell when PA is broken below. That sounds so simple huh? If it was that easy, everyone would be rich right now. I'm sure most of you reading this post are already aware that it's never easy. Why? It’s simple. In this world, there is no such thing as 100% “breakout”. To put it simply, everything we do based on the technical chart is somewhat relative, abstract, and subjective concept. It’s not like breakout has 100% succeeded, or failed but rather is more like breakout has succeeded in 60~70% chance. In other words, there are more than two possible future cases when we search and utilize breakout behavior. So, we traders need a reliable standard to statistically quantify the ‘degree of breakout’. The most basic way according to the ‘textbook’ is to consider closing price of candlestick firstly crossing the variable. As the price of the candlestick closes above the trendline as case 3, we give a decent weight on breakout scenario. However, case 2 is the one that confuses us every time. This is when the price did pierce through the trendline but closes below, usually leaving a long tail as a trace which sometimes is interpreted as a whipsaw. As soon as this happens, we have to admit that the chances and reliability is definitely lower than the case 3. It might be regarded as a false breakout or a noise if the trend continues afterwards and it might not actually. It’s a 50:50 call I would say. When you encounter case 2, to give you a little tip, try waiting a little more to observe next following candles. If the next following candlesticks keep closing prices below, I would raise the probability that the breakout is a false one. In fact, it is best to just not give any meaning on breakout in case 2. It itself is a risk to confirm whether the breakout is successful, not successfully, or false and thus try not take aggressive trades in this very case. Thank you for reading my posts. Trade Well! Your likes, comments, and subscriptions are the greatest motivations for me to upload more posts.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
192
KISS Candle Analysis, let's predict next week's candle togetherWe know that not all candles are the same. Statistically, various candle patterns are only as reliable as flipping a coin. I'm stating this, having analyzed candle patterns in the past early in my journey. Many don't talk about looking at each candle for what it is and reading the story that it tells you. Every candle tells us a battle that was fought and which side won. It's still a reflection of the past, but the momentum and energy carry forward, usually ending with a climax where the tides shift. Similar to how many have enlightened my understanding in this journey, I want to share a bit of my knowledge with you today. I'm calling this the KISS candle analysis (KISS = keep it simple, stupid). The idea is that a few simple things can tell us a lot more than a complicated bunch of indicators, trend lines, fibs, pivots, fractals, etc. All we need to know is in the candle right there in front of us. Let's get right into it! What we have is the weekly candle chart of BTC. I've highlighted the area showing the 5-week candles (I) in the recent past and the area from the past four weeks. They look somewhat similar, and some might call these even the same. However, reading each candle in detail tells us a different story. Each wick at the top of the past candles shows us a strong bearish force fighting the price down and then winning for a short while. Also, the bullish force that fought it. We can get an idea of that force and compare it to what we have witnessed over the past three weeks. Are they now the same? Which side is winning this battle, and how much further in the direction will the price reach, its top and the bottom? Is there a minimum distance price must travel in either direction? Share your thoughts in the comments, and if I sparked your curiosity, please like so others might also join this discussion. I'm happy to share more if there is interest.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Saver0
6
DXY - Elliott Wave Breakdown ✅Following on from our last post on DXY, we have moved up a considerable amount. In our last post we identified the higher timeframe impulsive move and waited for a catalyst, NFP, to move the market in our direction. See our previous post below: In Elliott Wave Theory, the impulsive wave can be broken down into the following 5 waves: Wave 1 - is made up of 5 subwaves (impulse) Wave 2 - Is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (ABC correction) Wave 3 - is another impulse wave made up of 5 subwaves (impulse) Wave 4 - is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (ABC correction) Wave 5 - Can be either an impulse or a correction - But its made up of 5 waves. In this scenario, the 5th wave is appearing to be an impulsive move. We have a channel which we will be using as a guide to help us identify when the 5th wave will finish. The way to use DXY is by doing the following: Bullish DXY = USD Strength. Bearish DXY = USD weakness 1. Analyse DXY for reversal zones and identify what the next move is 2. In our last post, we identified a reversal zone and we were waiting for NFP to be the catalyst to get the market moving (FEB 4th) 3. When DXY approaches the reversal zone, we go on to USD pairs and analyse them 4. Find a pair where you think USD will bounce/reject (depending on whether you're trading USD/XXX or XXX/USD) e.g. in the VIP, we correlated DXY with EURUSD. We identified that we were bullish DXY = Bearish EURUSD. We had a trade setup ready and we were waiting for confirmation. See below for the the VIP setup we had. Went into 10pip drawdown and hit TP of over 500pips = 1:50 RR. Hope this post helped a little! Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
TVC:DXYEducation
by WicktatorFX
5
Market Manipulation: Crypto Pump and Dump SchemesIf you look at the price charts for many cryptocurrencies, there is often a very sharp, sudden spike in their earlier days. Most cryptocurrencies’ charts either have a more or less gradual decline or increase in price, or display a virtually straight horizontal line, indicating not so much a lack of volatility as a lack of trading or interest altogether in the project. You can also sometimes see big waves where the cryptocurrency was gradually manipulated or affected by markets. But, in many cryptocurrencies, particularly the smaller, lesser-known ones, at one or more times in their history there is a sudden vertical needle in the charts, an almost instantaneous increase in its price by hundreds of percent, and then, shortly, or often even almost instantly, after, just as rapid a decline in its price, back to where it started. If it didn’t happen so frequently, one might be forgiven for thinking it’s a blip in the charts, a mistake or a problem with the exchange. Except these needles happened all too frequently on charts of many of the smaller cryptocurrencies. These needles – sudden price increases in the hundreds of percent followed by a sharp collapse, were caused by a particular type of very legally grey trade known as the pump and dump. In the world of crypto pump and dumps, some made money, often a lot, and most lost it all, often within seconds and often without really knowing what had hit them. Manipulation of markets has gone on since trading began. Unfortunately for those wanting to profit from manipulating stocks and traditional assets, doing so is highly illegal, and tends to result in high fines and jail time. However, greed, money, and success can be big motivators and there are always some who will keep pushing the grey areas of the law until they either get their way or get caught. In crypto, there have been a lot of grey areas and the markets were volatile enough for individuals to manipulate to part hundreds of thousands of people, if not more, from their money in a whole series of promotions designed to pump and dump, project after project. Stock exchanges that don’t take adequate measures to prevent stock manipulations can face heavy legal penalties, so for the most part they play above the law. Unlike traditional stocks where markets are heavily monitored and regulated, cryptocurrency, as we have already seen, has been a bit of a Wild West. Regulation is starting to come, but until then, crypto markets have been treated as a free-for-all adventure ground where anything goes.
Education
by arquilis
1
5 Important Candle Patterns You Need to Know📚 🟢Candlestick patterns and models in technical analysis can be used to predict future price movement. ⚠️There are many different candle patterns. Not all of them work equally well and often their form is quite subjective. Therefore, it is not necessary to make trading decisions based on patterns alone. It would be best to combine them with support and resistance levels, moving averages or other technical analysis indicators that strengthen signals to enter the market. ❗️Remembering a lot of different candle patterns is not as useful as understanding what is really behind their appearance, and who is currently controlling the situation in the market — bulls or bears. Let's look at the most popular and easiest to define patterns. ✅Bearish Engulfing It is formed during the upward momentum of the price at the local highs of the chart. The first small green candle of the pattern indicates that the bulls are already tired and they need a break. The large red candle that appeared next, swallowing the green one with its body, indicates that the bears took advantage of the situation and actively moved into a counteroffensive. Further movement of quotations downwards leads to the beginning of a downward correction. Confirmation of the beginning of the downward movement will be the price falling below the minimum of the second, large bearish candle pattern. ✅Bullish Engulfing It is formed during the downward movement at the local minima of the price chart. The first small red candle of the pattern shows that the bears' strength is already running out, after which a large green candle appears, completely absorbing the body of the first one. This suggests that the bulls felt the weakness of the bears and actively went on the offensive. Further upward movement of the price leads to the beginning of an upward correction. Confirmation of its beginning is the growth of quotations above the maximum of the second, large bullish candle pattern. ✅Doji In fact, doji can be one of the most important patterns in combination with other technical analysis tools. It shows indecision in the market and at its breakdown - it is possible to draw conclusions about the further probable price movement. ✅Shooting Star A clear sign of the dominance of sellers. After the opening of the candle, prices moved towards growth, but at the closing of the candle, sellers began to dominate buyers and the price closes near or below the opening price. The tail of this candle shows that it was in it that sellers began to "Crush" buyers. With such a pattern, there is a possibility of further decline. ✅Pin bar A clear sign of the dominance of buyers. After the opening of the candle, prices moved downward, but at the close of the candle, buyers began to dominate sellers and the price closes near or above the opening price. The tail of this candle shows that it was in it that buyers began to "crush" sellers. With such a pattern, there is a possibility of further growth. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
3
The analysis of the behavior of major player Part 1I would very much like to share with you my knowledge about the behavior of large players in the market, how to notice them and how to use it. It's very interesting and in fact you can talk about it for a very long time, people have been studying these strategies for years. I will try to explain the simplest first, this will be the first part. If you look at the chart that I have shown, you will see the level underlined with a blue line, this is it, the stops of a major player, in the event of a breakdown of this level, a major player will exit by stops, which means a sale, since closing by stops for the exchange is tantamount to sale. Thus, at this moment, the price is guaranteed to go further down.😉 It was a first part. Best wishes. I will happy to see you in next parts😊
Education
by MiriamRapoport
Wavefront CorrelationI recently rediscovered an indicator I made a while back. If you're familiar with my other indicators, you'll remember they are viewed from the side moving past us. In that view we are looking into a field of waves moving perpendcular to our frame of reference. Here the wave ithe view is if we were standing in front of the wave watching it movING towards us eternally. The red lines are the shorter timeframes, while the higher frequency colors (white, magenta, blue) are the longer timeframes. From this view, it's not only possible to more accurately see what the present wavefield looks like, it is also much easier to see if certain timeframes are correlating. I sped up 2.5 months of replay data into a short clip and the results are damn interesting! What do you think? Ever seen an indicator like this? Any thing I should consider?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CubanEmissary
1
Will nifty started to uptrend after 3 swings to downWill it nifty started to move uptrend after 3 swing down to 15860 level. In 15 min chart looks like wave 1 as completed and wave 2 ABC structure formed to down side, we can expect wave 2 to downside upto 16950 if crosses below that level wave count are invalid. If nifty started to upside from present level and crosses 17400 than 3 wave starts we can expect nifty to form HH levels. Disclaimer Only for educational purposes not recommending anything.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by mohan8514
Basket trading for max gains and min losses 🧺 🤑 Many of you probably aren't familiar with a trading strategy called basket trading. I got first introduced to it from my Forex trading days and immediately saw its value. I apply that to Crypto trading to minimize my losses and keep my trades stable and less volatile. It also allows me to harvest profits as targets are reached. Here are the facts about the market. Market comes across looking random because many cannot quantify the factors that contribute to price movement, and therefore it appears random. We can take that assumption as a fact. Due to various timing factors, the market appears random within a certain time range. We can use this randomness to our benefit. This means if we trade a basket of cryptos that exhibit various timing and trend attributes, then we end up with a single "currency" or asset that tends to move in more of a sinusoidal pattern with a bias towards a direction. Price tends to cross the 0% gain line, often giving us many opportunities to adjust that basket. These adjustments involve taking out profit and breaking even from other coins. If the basket trend is bullish or bearish, that's all you need to make a profit from the basket. You can use the amazing TradingView feature of combing cryptos quickly to create your basket. More about the feature is here: Here is a quick tutorial on how to perform this exercise of creating a basket. The more coins you have, the smoother the movement will be, and more often, it will reach the 0% gain level. The advantage here is that this acts as a "stop-loss" without taking a loss, and you can harvest profits with TP limit orders. Determine the series of coins that you think are bullish or bearish. Stick to only one direction. Let's say for this example; you went with bullish. Determine the volatility of each coin: meaning, the general % movement of the price that is expected typically. Use that volatility to determine the % of the investment that should go towards each coin. Now, create the chart formula based on that percentage, and you got yourself what the basket of currencies looks like. Here is an example: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, JASMYUSD, AVAXUSD BTCUSD->2%, ETHUSD->5%, JASMYUSD->15%, AVAXUSD->9% (not real values) If I have $1000, I will invest most into BETC and least into JASMYUSD to make my overall basket constant in volatility. This yields about BTCUSDx4, ETHUSDx1.8, JASMYUSDx0.1, AVAXUSDx0.7. If you put $100 in each coin, multiply it by the multiplier, $400 on BTCUSD, $180 on ETH, etc. You can play however you like. You can maximize for higher risk as well. Now on the TradeView chart, enter the formula for the coin to see the single basket currency made up of your combination: BTCUSD*4+ETHUSD*1.8+JASMYUSD*0.1+AVAXUSD*0.7 I also add each coin, so I see how the coin itself moves relative to the others. You can apply indicators and whatever you like to it and trade it just likes how you would trade anything. All the math that applies to a single chart applies to this basket. I'm yet to see a platform that lets us easily trade complex strategies like this, so I'm making my own for trading purposes. If you know of one, please let me know in the comments so that I can try it out. If you have any questions, please ask, and I will try my best to answer. If you found this interesting or helpful, please like it! Thank you! Please keep in mind that this is not a guaranteed way to make profits. There are still risks like the entire crypto market going against you. This happens when there are fundamental changes that affect the market. Please trade at your own risk and play it safe.
COINBASE:AMPUSDEducation
by Saver0
10