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Wave Analysis

EW Projection for Bull Rally: You sure you want to short this?!Be really careful about placing bets against this monster. The end phase of bull markets are always characterized by explosive panic rallies. Been rising for 12 years. Fed gonna raise rates >1% next year, probably gonna get a 50 basis pip pop in spring or summer, inflation unchecked. Read Friday's NY Times for a very insightful article on when, why and how much interest rates will rise; projecting mortgage rates to rise >1% in 2022. Most traders now alive have never seen a secular bear market. That's a period when prices just decline for years, or churn aimlessly, no one wins. Bear markets that last for 3-6 weeks are not real bears, lol. They are mini-bears, bear cubs or just a mild hangover before the buying begins again. In a real bear, the buying does NOT begin again. Prices decline, and then drift further down; and do not bounce. This is not here YET, but SOON IMO. BUT, before the Bear, we should expect a last hurrah for the old Bull, and shorting it will be a widowmaker. Do not get killed, please!! So much for the lecture, here's the Education part of this idea it's about using all the tools you can to make educated guesses about price direction; we have Elliott waves, RSI, MAs, and Fibonacci retracement and projection extensions as possibly useful analysis tools, any and all of which can and will fail us: Elliot wave theory suggests that we have a completed or near completion 3rd wave, the longest and strongest wave of an impulsive movement. Beware! EW projection is an arcane art and no one can really 'see' these waves until after they have passed... you do NOT know where you are in the wave when you're in it! Forecasting of EWs is purely speculative guesswork, and totally subjective; "Where do I number my waves, guru?!" Disclaimer: As you know, Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant and math genius whose insight into market behavior led to his uncanny prediction of the bottom of 1935 mini-bear that followed the Crash of '29 (a bear that lasted until 1932...!). His theory is only a theory, and many forecasting services exist pretending to anticipate what the market will do next, but in fact underperform index funds. Still fascinating though! RSI is overbought, but can get MORE overbought (see prior posts about why we do not enter shorts purely based on indicators!); expect some consolidation and price weakness before moving higher; the Fibonacci 1.272 extension of this rally leads to price 4614, after pullback to a higher low. Market trades now more than 3SD above the 200 DMA, more than 2SD above the 50DMA; a pullback is very likely in these conditions. the 20DMA may be support. Disclaimer: As you know, Fibonacci is a dead Italian math genius, these projections based on nothing more than number theory are pure necromancy but sometimes can be coincidentally correct, like a stopped clock that's right twice a day, lol. IMO 4682 is on the table at the next Fib extension. Expect weakness in the last week of October; and new ATH again in November, barring surprises. A sharp pullback is likely to follow the ATH, if and when we get it. So uncertain now, just a mad gamble TBVH. NB: A zig-zag pattern is still possible, some of the fiercest rallies precede the most bearish cascades; or a Cup & Handle may form, if so, the Handle typically will pullback half the height of cup wall, would be ~80-100 pips, so price around 4460-4480 is a likely a buy zone to re-enter. ANY or NONE of these possibilities might emerge, which makes stock speculation so wildly exciting! Be cautious, do not overtrade, use sensible position sizing! I am not entering a position or making any recommendation to take any position here. Pure WAGuess IMO; this is purely for your amusement, and hopefully enlightenment. GLTA!
TVC:SPXEducation
by DaddySawbucks
9
Power of Small Consistent EffortsHello Traders, 👋 Today I would love to talk all about the power of putting in small consistent efforts. Furthermore discuss the power of compounding and compound interest. Putting in small consistent effort is ideal for anyone, regardless of experience. Whether you are new to trading, trade forex, trade crypto or even want to find a new hobby 🏑🏓🎺🎸 1.00 The first equation is simply the number 1 raised to the power 365. The power 365 simply means 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 etc... 365 times. Anything multiplied by 1 remains unchanged, so the result is 1. But what happens if we add 1% to that? 1.01 1% bigger than 1 is 1.01. So if we take 1.01 and we raise that to the power 365 — so in other words, we multiply 1.01 x 1.01 x 1.01 x 1.01 etc... 365 times. You will be surprised that it equals 37.8 notice that this is almost 37 times bigger than the answer to the first equation above! 🤯 This is the result you’d get if you “did just 1% more than usual”. The difference in effort is just 1% a day, it’s tiny! If you can work on your trading 1% more than you are currently doing, every day. You will end up with a considerable amount of impact from that work. Whereas if you don’t do that little bit extra every day, you will be making zero progress and contain the same knowledge as you did a year ago, maybe less. Little steps, done consistently time and time again, compound into big, big differences. And not taking those little steps, makes the effect almost disappear. "Compound Interest is the Eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it... Earn it. He who doesn't... Pays it." ~Albert Einstein In simple terms compound interest is earning interest on your interest. For example If you was trading with $1000 and you made on average 10% per month, you would reinvest your earnings each month to make interest on them. This is called compound interest. +++++++++++++ Profit/Interest Month 1 $1100 +$100 Month 2 $1210 +$110 Month 3 $1331 +$121 Month 4 $1464 +$133.1 As you can see each month your profit is increasing. This is because you are making profit on your profit. The earlier you start compound interest the better. This is something millennials should learn in school! I know most people want to jump on the million dollar deal and get rich quick. But if you took a single penny and doubled it everyday, by day 30, you would have $5,368,709.12. However, it's important to note that it's all about the power of doubling. If you asked the same question, but changed the doubling time to just 27 days, you would only have $671,088.64 If you are struggling on your trading journey, do not give up! ****The first step of every successful Trader : FAILURE**** Do not let a little failure scare you away from being consistent. Thanks for taking the time to read my post! 💖 Please check out my other trade ideas! 🐱‍🏍🐱‍🏍🐱‍🏍
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Pips-Collector
156
Wedge Pattern: Reversal & Continuation PatternThe Ending Diagonal Pattern of Elliot Wave Theory = The Wedge Pattern In Classic Chart patterns Basic Rules For The Wedge Pattern: 1. Consists of five waves 1-2-3-4-5 2. Each wave subdivides into a zigzag a-b-c 3. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price 4. Wave 1 is usually the longest 5. Wave 3 can not be the shortest The "Wedge Pattern" can be found as a "Reversal Pattern" or a "Continuation Pattern" A "Rising Wedge Pattern" created during an uptrend works as a "Reversal Pattern" A "Rising Wedge Pattern" created during a downtrend works as a "Continuation Pattern" A "Falling Wedge Pattern" created during a downtrend works as a "Reversal Pattern" A "Falling Wedge Pattern" created during an uptrend works as a "Continuation Pattern" "Thumbs Up" If you found this content useful😀 Thank you and Good Luck!
Education
by KlejdiCuni
24
FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉 FALSE BREAKOUTS | SPOT/AVOID/TRADE THEM LIKE PRO📈📉 How often have you opened a key level breakout trade, and then the price turned against you? False breakout happens quite often and it is a problem for many traders who buy at highs and sell at lows. ❗️Breakout trading is a fairly popular and viable trading strategy. However, some breakouts often turn out to be false. This can be quite frustrating, not to mention that it can often lead to a losing trade. However, in many cases, an experienced trader can analyze the market situation and react to it accordingly. False breakouts can make a profit if you know how to trade them correctly. ⚠️A false breakdown is a situation when the price violates an obvious level, but then suddenly changes direction. When the initial breakout of the level occurs, many traders open a trade in the direction of the breakdown. These traders are trapped when the price reverses, which triggers a series of stop losses. New traders are also entering the market, and this puts additional pressure on the price. This often turns the price into a new trend, the opposite of the initial breakout. A breakout that turns out to be false is a sign of strength in a downtrend or weakness in an uptrend. As you can see, a false breakout can easily cause significant losses for any trader. Some traders develop their entire strategy around trading false breakouts, as this can be a very powerful trading approach. Some of the best trades happen when market players fall into a trap and their stops start to work. ✅How to find patterns of false breakouts? 🟢If you do not learn how to correctly identify false breakouts, you will not be able to trade them profitably. For example, there will be situations when the price returns to the breakout point, and only then continues its movement. 🟢One of the ways to detect false breakouts is to monitor the volume. Real breakouts are usually accompanied by strong indications of trading volume at the time of the breakout. When this volume is absent, there is a higher probability that the breakout will not happen. 🟢Thus, if the trading volume is low or it decreases during the breakout, a false breakout is likely to occur. In contrast, if the volume is large or it increases, a real breakdown is likely. 🟢It is also useful to monitor not only the trading volume but also the price movement on the lower timeframe. In many cases, you will see that the price makes a very sharp pullback on the lower timeframe, which is not visible on the higher timeframe. ✅False Breakout Trap 🔴After all, many trading textbooks say that a breakout can be considered confirmed when a candle closes above the resistance level. However, the price moves in your direction for a while and then turns 180 degrees. As a result, you have a stop loss triggered. 🔴The false breakout trap includes several candlesticks, usually 1-4, that go beyond the key support or resistance level. Such breakouts occur after a strong movement, as the market has reached an important level, but the price momentum still retains its strength. Have you ever been trapped by a false breakout?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
8
The Markets Only Produce 2 Patterns On Any Chart and Timeframe.AriasWave is a methodology. In essence the markets produce a combination of waves using these 2 patterns. If you can observe and understand these two patterns and how the combination of them form the foundation of all markets you will realize how they operate. Go ahead and try to find the combination. You will be surprised once you start to see that all markets are just made up of a simple fractal pattern. In this video I give you a basic understanding of this foundational knowledge. How you use absorb it is completely up to you. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
SEducation
by AriasWave
3
Reversal Patterns & ContinuationHello Traders, Today I would like to talk all about the different types of reversal patterns & continuation patterns, this can be whether you are a swing trader or a day trader we all must look for signals such as these as they are solid confirmations for our trading ideas. Forex reversal patterns are on chart formations which help in forecasting high probability reversal zones. These could be in the form of a single candle, or a group of candles lined up in a specific shape. Types of Reversal Chart Patterns There are two basic types of trend reversal patterns; the bearish reversal pattern and the bullish reversal pattern. The Bullish reversal pattern forecasts that the current bearish move will be reversed into a bullish direction. The Bearish reversal pattern forecasts that the current bullish move will be reversed into a bearish direction. Double Top and Double Bottom We will start with the Double Top reversal chart pattern. The pattern consists of two tops on the price chart. These tops are either located on the same resistance level, or the second top is a bit lower. The double top pattern typically looks like the letter “M”. The Double Top has its opposite, called the Double Bottom. This pattern consists of two bottoms, which are either located on the same support level, or the second bottom is a bit higher. The double bottom pattern typically looks like the letter “W”. Head and Shoulders The Head and Shoulders pattern is a very interesting and unique reversal figure. The shape of the pattern is aptly named because it actually resembles a head with two shoulders. The pattern forms during a bullish trend and creates a top – the first shoulder. After a correction, the price action creates a higher top – the head. After another correction, the price creates a third top, which is lower than the head – the second shoulder. So we have two shoulders and a head in the middle. Of course, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern has its inverted equivalent, which turns bearish trends into bullish. This pattern is referred to as an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. Overall Reversal patterns are a key part in trading and especially useful for confirmations in your trade ideas. You may not always find reversal patterns but when you do you will know the best possible entries! Thanks for taking the time to read my post! Please check out my other trade ideas! 😆😂😆😂😆😂😆😂
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Pips-Collector
84
TRIANGLE Elliott Wave triangles are corrective patterns that consolidate the previous trend. Elliott Wave triangles consist of five waves labeled a-b-c-d-e. There are 3 ways of trading Triangles potentially in Elliott Wave. 1. Conservative Entry 2. Aggressive Entry 3. Supper Aggressive Entry. Conservative Entry approach, we wait for the triangle to complete(A,B,C,D,E). We act i.e (Place out market orders) only when price has reached the end of Wave D and our Stop loss at the end of Wave C. Aggressive Entry approach, we wait for the triangle to complete(A,B,C,D). We act i.e (Place out market orders) only when price has reached the end of Wave E and our Stop loss at the end of Wave C.
Education
by westbellisyfx
Understanding News ManipulationIt is crucial to understand the price action prior to a high impact news event. Analysing the range to the left beforehand can help you determine what move is likely to come next. In this example, we saw the price was driven down by the bears to stop out buyers, only to reverse immediately to the upside moments after the news had been released. By studying and acquiring knowledge like this, you can predict market moves that are likely to come with fundamentals. Find the liquidity and trade it, or be the liquidity.
Education
by AlkalineFX
10
CHFJPY - Identify These Moves - FULL Breakdown 📚A key part of technical analysis is to identify the different phases and patterns in the market. So, what can we see? - We can see that we're within a major ascending parallel channel and price has been respecting it. When price approaches either extremes of the channel, it rejects aggressively. - There are 2 key phases at play here. The blue phase is the impulse and the red phase is the correction. - The impulse phase is an upward movement and the corrective phase is a downward move After identifying these phases, what next? - So now that we know that the impulse phase ends at the upper limit of the channel, we know there's a corrective move coming back down to the channel support. - If there's enough momentum, we can break the channel support and keep falling. As we're in an ascending channel, it is often a reversal pattern = there's a high chance that CHFJPY can come back down all the way to 109 - Now we need a trading plan to enter this trade How do we trade it? - The risk entry would have been at the rejection of the channel resistance - The safe entry would be to identify when the impulse has ended. One way we can do this is by identifying when the uptrend has ended. This can be done by using a trendline (like the one we have) and watching for a break to indicate that the uptrend has ended and the next phase has begun. Trade Idea: Watch for the ascending red trendline to break and enter with stops above the channel. First Target: Target the channel support for first targets (500pips) Second Target: The bottom of the channel (1,600pips) Hope this breakdown was helpful. If so, do leave a like and comment what you think!
Education
by WicktatorFX
16
Test of saved trendines on tradinviews replay hello here i tried to test my strategy of trendlines. as you will see it is reliable and useful to save and update your drawn line on your chart, because it guides you to know in advance the breath of your market. it is like if you draw a path that it will be run by the market. like if you have a cristal ball showin you where and how our market decide. be patient for my long video but trust me it deserve be watched. good luck
COMEX:GC1!Education
by HASSOUNI-trading
2
DXY - How To Use DXY To Enter Trades 🎯For almost a year DXY has been in an uptrend but we may soon be at the end. Last Friday, DXY closed with a bearish candle at the double top region, indicating that there are al lot of sellers at that level. If we continue to show bearish pressure, we can soon end that uptrend and take advantage of USD weakness across the board. Here's a brief breakdown on how to use DXY: DXY up = USD Strength. DXY down = USD weakness 1. Analyse DXY for reversal zones and identify what the next move is 2. On this chart we can see that DXY is indicating bearish price action 3. Now that DXY is at an important level, go on to your USD pairs and analyse them 4. Find out if there's any XXXUSD LONG ideas or if there's any USDXXX pairs that are at the best place to SELL 5. Correlate the DXY movement with the USD charts e.g. DXY showing bearish price action which makes EURUSD buy a great idea as EURUSD is at a key level. Hope that helps! Goodluck and as always, Trade Safe!
TVC:DXYEducation
by WicktatorFX
9
BTC analysis, which could serve as a guideline in the futureDear Market Traders, As you can see, many of us are confused regarding Bitcoin's future path. I believe that many people are hitting SL these days, and once they enter the market, the price goes in the opposite direction. I'd like to share an idea with you that may help you cease trading before Bitcoin reaches 57200~56200, which may occur on November 8th between 0GMT and 6GMT. The time may vary due to minor changes in the direction of the channel. I hope my analysis aids you in the long term in analyzing the market more effectively. Best wishes
Education
by FireXForex
1
How to trade at NFP? Usually, average hourly earnings don't print positive. I have seen very few times NFP and Hourly earnings published positive together in the last 13 years. When companies hire more people, it's expected that they don't want to pay more and overtime. But, on the other side, companies don't recruit new people, and then they pay more overtime to their existing workers. That's why most of the time, we see Either NFP prints post or hourly earnings. Hourly earning is essential for the following CPI report. I mean, inflation reports are related to hourly earnings. NFP is the main report; there is no doubt. But in some cases, hourly earnings and unemployment play a significant role than the NFP. Moreover, especially when central banks want to raise rates, in the meantime inflation is essential. Central banks need more than 2% inflation to raise bank rates. In that case, hourly earnings are more important than NFP. So, it is expected that NFP will print positively than the previous report today, and hourly earnings may not fulfill its forecast. But last CPI reports were positive, So, it won't be wrong as well. What to do while you are trading NFP? When central banks are not hiking bank rates market always follows NFP. Whatever the other's reports are. If NFP print is upbeat, we should buy the USD. But keep in mind, though NFP reports are printed positive, hourly earnings and unemployment may drop. It is essential to keep in mind always that the market follows NFP eventually, not initially. So, if other reports print negative, The USD will become weak first. Then, after 5 minutes or 15 minutes, the USD will follow NFP from any swing area. On the other hand, If other reports prints positive but NFP report prints negative. In that cases, the USD will spike to the upside, but ultimately it will drop. Just keep in mind the situation that central banks are in rate-hiking mode or not. So give priority hourly earnings reports when the central banks are in rate-hiking mode. And usually, give priority NFP reports every time. How To Handle Technically While Trading NFP? If you want to handle the market at NFP, you should know swing trading and the uses of Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension. Use 5 minutes candle. For example, the market closed with 5 minutes bearish candle, NFP printed negative, and other reports printed positive. So, the USD will spike to the upside first. So, if you are good at swing trade, you can sell from the swing area. Otherwise, you should use Fibonacci tools. If the market closed with a bearish candle, that means it will correct to the upside nearly 50% fibo area. So, go short from fibo 50% area and use Fibonacci extension tolls to set your take profit area at 61.8%. Just do opposite things if NFP prints positive and other reports prints negative.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1