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Wave Analysis

Market Structure: Seeing In SwingsMarket Structure is simply making distinctions in price flow. its putting structure around what looks like chaos so that we have a way to measure and orient ourselves to any market in any timeframe. When I look at a market, I want to see objectively in swings. Swings are the common thread that weaves through all markets and timeframes, providing a clear indication of who is in control at any given moment. They consist of distinct components and follow a process, forming the foundation of my trading strategies and setups. Market Structure Definitions: Confirmed Swing High/Low: A new high confirms a swing low and a new low confirms a swing high. Relative: Major Swing: The largest reaction leg in your frame. Minor Swing: the next largest reaction leg. Balanced/Relative Swing: Same size reaction legs. Expanded Swing: Reaction leg larger than previous reaction leg. Components of a Swing: Impulse Leg: The leg that takes out a previous high or low. Reaction Leg: The retracement or pullback after the impulse leg. Impulse Leg Shelf: a small range at the end of an impulse leg Reaction Leg Shelf: A small range at the bottom of a reaction leg
NYSE:CMAEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
Leading Diagonal : Elliott wave Analyisis (Elliott Baba)Leading Diagonal : Elliott wave Analyisis This pattern subdivides into 5 waves. Wave 2 never ends beyond the starting point of wave 1. Wave 3 always breaks the ending point of wave 1. Wave 4 usually breaks beyond the ending point of wave 1. Wave 5 in the absolute majority of cases breaks the ending point of wave 3. Wave 3 can't be the shortest. Wave 2 can't be a triangle or a triple three structure. Waves 1, 3 and 5 can be formed like impulses or zigzags.
NSE:INDUSINDBKEducation
by Elliottbaba
Building a Solid Portfolio: Using an Index (THE CAC 40 INDEX)Hello, Embarking on the journey of creating a portfolio of stocks can be both exciting and challenging. One strategy that many investors consider is using a well-established index as a basis for their portfolio. In this article, we will explore the steps involved in building a portfolio with the CAC 40 Index, a benchmark index representing the 40 largest stocks listed on Euronext Paris. Step 1: Understand the index. Understanding an index is very key since it creates the thesis of why you should consider using it. In our case, the simplest definition of the CAC 40 index is as below The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index. The index represents a capitalization-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. 2: Define your investment goals whether you are looking at strong companies that will provide consistent dividends for you or strong companies that will easily deliver price appreciation for your stocks will be very key in your next move. Understanding your risk horizon & tolerance is also very important at this stage. 3: Understand the components of the Index. The CAC 40 has 40 companies as its components. The companies are as follows; Air Liquide, Airbus, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Axa, BNP Paribas, Bouygues, Capgemini, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole, Danone, Dassault Systèmes, Edenred, Engie, EssilorLuxottica, Eurofins Scientific, Hermès, Kering, L'Oréal, Legrand, LVMH, Michelin, Orange, Pernod Ricard, Publicis, Renault, Safran, Saint-Gobain, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Société Générale, Stellantis, STMicroelectronics, Teleperformance, Thales, TotalEnergies, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, Veolia, Vinci, and Worldline 4: Research Individual Companies Once you have a sense of the companies you want exposure to, delve into the individual companies. Conduct thorough research on each company, considering factors such as financial health, earnings growth, competitive positioning, and management quality. This step is crucial in identifying the specific stocks you want to include in your portfolio. This will greatly help you in selecting the great companies among the components. We will look at 1 company among the components of the CAC 40 & you can try and look at the rest. The company we shall explore is DANONE . Below is its chart to show its historical price move Next understand what the company does: Danone SA engages in the food processing industry. It operates through the following geographical segments: Europe; North America; China, North Asia & Oceania; and Rest of the World. . This data can be found on Tradingview via link www.tradingview.com Next understand the financials of the company: The same can be interrogated on the link shared before. The most important metric is the Income statement because it shows you where the company derives its value from in form of income. It also will tell you how the company spends its money. You cannot however ignore the Balance sheet and the Cashflow statement. www.tradingview.com Once you have an understanding of the company as a whole now its key to look at structure to understand and pick great entry points. This is where we begin structure drawing and identification of patterns. Here is the link with clear Impulses & corrections. Very key for you to note is that the price is in a correction and close to where the 1st target would be. This tells us even though this might be a great company from all other metrics, it might not be a great company to buy from the current point. Now that we have looked at the Danone company, back to our CAC 40 index. 5: Research on all other companies that make the index. By following these above steps, you can construct a well-rounded portfolio that aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance. All the best in your investment journey.
FX:FRA40Education
by thesharkke
Using price action & tradingview tools to trade betterHello, Price action is a vital aspect of trading, and analyzing candlestick patterns is key to understanding market dynamics. The size of candles, representing the range between opening and closing prices, is crucial for traders. Large candles signal strong momentum and potential trends, while smaller candles suggest indecision or lack of clear direction. Traders use candle size to identify entry and exit points, manage risk, and gauge market sentiment. By examining the relationship between candle sizes and volume, traders can make informed decisions based on visual representations of price movements. In summary, candle size is a valuable tool in price action analysis, helping traders interpret market behavior for better decision-making. A key tool you can use to measure the momentum of an asset is the Date & price range tool . This tool allows users to place points vertically on two different prices. A Text appears along the box displaying the total size of the price moving in terms of actual share price, percentage and time the move took. E.g the chart below shows the move took 3234 days and was +1024.43% in terms of increase. Once you've got the hang of price action and figured out which way the trend is going, the next big thing is spotting patterns that tell you when to jump in. We focus on two things: motive moves, which show the trend, and corrections, which give us good entry points . Motive moves are like the big, important moves we want to trade, and corrections are where we can get in on the action. Recognizing these patterns helps us know when it's smart to join the market and increases our chances of making successful trades. a good example of these can be identified below Once you've identified patterns, the next step is deciding when to get in. There are two main types: risk entries and risk-averse entries. Risk entries often align with motive moves, indicating a trader's willingness to take on more risk for potentially higher rewards. Below is a great way of looking at both of this Risk taking entry Risk averse entry This is where the correction has already been broken and a trend determined. The Risk to reward ratio is lower and therefore less profit can be achieved here. Next we shall be looking at how to look at the indicators to support your trading hypothesis and make better trades. Good luck and all the best.
NSEKE:SCOMEducation
by thesharkke
5
HOW TO IDENTIFY STOPLOSS HUNTER AND TAKE PART ON IT - SETUP - HI BIG PLAYERS! Today I want give you smart WAY to take part on stoploss hunters. I know everyone of us hate it to be stopped out. But to be honest, stoploss levels means a huge volume level, that institutions use for cheap entries. This is why I want explain how I take part on stoploss hunting. I look on 4h chart for high demand and supply zones. On touching these area we all can expect more trade exchange and more volume. If the price bounce of this zone and break with CHOCH (change of character ) the last trend, a lot of trader try to trade early as they can and the stoploss becomes calculatable . As soon as the old trend is resumed, but in a narrow form, so that it is almost a sideways phase, then I identify stoploss hunter. The setup looks similar like this structure: The good news: the stoploss to the last local point is very close and Risk-Return-Ratios of 1:3 are possible. Comments are welcome! Best regards NXT2017
Education
by NXT2017
1
Algorithmic Identification and Classification of Chart PatternsWelcome to the world of technical analysis, where chart patterns play a pivotal role in shaping trading strategies. This is an ultimate guide designed to help users objectively identify the existence of patterns, define the characteristics and classify them. In this discussion, we will mainly concentrate on the patterns formed by trend line pairs. This includes wedges, triangles and channel type patterns. 🎲 Basic Principle of Identifying the Pattern It is very important to apply definitely set of rules when identifying the patterns in order to avoid biases or fitting patterns to our opinions. The dangers of overfitting the patterns to our bias is documented in the idea To identify the patterns objectively, we need to set some ground rules or follow a well-defined technique to derive the patterns. Here is the technique we follow to identify chart patterns. 🎲 Only Indicator Required - Zigzag Tradingview has plenty of free community scripts for Zigzag indicator. For this demonstration, we are going to use our Multi Timeframe Recursive Zigzag implementation. Once the indicator is loaded on the chart, go to indicator settings and perform these modifications. Disable the Labels : The Labels contain information that is needed for this exercise. Set the Highlight level to 1 or 0 : We can iteratively increase the level and check next levels on the go. You can also adjust Zigzag Length and Depth Parameters. 🎲 Scanning and Identification of valid Pattern We can either use 5 pivots or 6 pivots for pattern identification. 5-Pivot based scanning will generate more patterns than 6-Pivot based scanning. 6 pivot patterns are geometrically more accurate however, there is no proof that 6-Pivot based patterns produce better trading outcome. 🎯 Step 1 - On each level of zigzag, mark the last 5 or 6 zigzag pivots. Since we are using Multi Timeframe Recursive Zigzag implementation, we can gradually increase the zigzag level from 0. This means that on every level, we can check if there are any patterns. On each level - consider only the last 5 or 6 pivots and mark them on the chart. Markings on Level 0 would look like this for 5 and 6 pivot scanning 🎯 Step 2: Draw Trend Lines As part of this step, draw two trend lines. The first trend line will join pivots 1 and 5 marked in the previous step. The second trend line will join pivots 2 and 4 marked in the previous step for 5 pivot scanning. For 6 pivot scanning, the trend line joining pivots 2 and 6 will be marked. 🎯 Step 3: Inspect the validity of trend lines A valid trend line is the one that confirm to below two points Touches all the alternate pivots. For example, the trend line drawn from pivot 1 to 5 should also make contact with the candle of pivot 3. In case of 6 pivot scanning, the trend drawn from pivot 2 to 6 should also make contact with the candle of pivot 4. All the candles from the starting pivot to ending pivot of the zigzag should be confined within the trend line pairs. Meaning, no candles should completely go above the upper trend line and no candle should completely go below the lower trend line. Please note that while verifying the above points, minor adjustments in the alignment of the trend line can be made. Start and end of the trend line does not need to be on the high/low points of the candle, it can also be placed in any of the wick positions. After adjusting the trend lines, in both type of scanning, we can see that the trend lines confirm to the above-mentioned rules. Hence, we have arrived with valid patterns in both types of scanning on the level 0 zigzag. 🎲 Classification of Patterns Once the patterns are identified, they need to be classified into different types. We need to apply predetermined rules to objectively classify patterns into what they are. Everyone can build their own rules. 🎯 Properties of Derived Trend Lines Before classifying the trend lines, we need to understand below properties of the derived trend lines. ▶ Direction of Individual Trend Lines Both the trend lines needs to be individually classified among these categories Rising - Trend Line is sharply rising up. Falling - Trend Line is sharply falling down. Flat - Trend Line is flat across the pivots. Bi-Directional - Trend Lines are moving in opposite directions Please note that, it is less probable for trend line to absolutely flat. Hence, allow angle to have certain degree of threshold to be considered as flat. For example, +- 10 degrees can be considered as flat. Also, the angle of the trend line can further subjective based on how compressed the chart is. It is recommended to use either log/auto-scale or a specific formula based on ATR to identify the angle. ▶ Characteristic of the Trend Line Pairs This parameter defines how both trend lines are aligned with respect to each other. Possible options are: Converging - Trend Lines are converging and when extended towards the right will intersect at a visible distance. Diverging - Trend Lines are diverging from each other and when extended towards the left will intersect at a visible distance. Parallel - Trend Lines are almost parallel to each other and may not intersect to either right or to left at a visible distance. To objectively identify the intersection distance, we further need to use some standard. Here are few options Fixed Number of Bars : If the trend lines do not intersect to either left or right within X bars (Lets say 100), they can be considered as parallel. Otherwise, they can be classified as converging or diverging based on which side the intersection happens. Relative to the Length of Pattern : If the length of longest trend line is X bars. The trend lines should converge within 1–2 times the X bars to be considered as converging or diverging. Or else, it can be termed as parallel channels. 🎯 Geometrical Shapes Classification Following are the main geometrical classifications based on the characteristics of the trend lines and the pair. Channels - Trend Lines are parallel to each other. And hence they both move in the same directions. Wedges - Trend Lines are either converging or diverging from each other. However, both trend lines move in the same direction. Both trend lines will be either up or down. Triangles - Trend Lines are either converging or diverging from each other. But, unlike wedges, upper and lower trend lines will have different direction. 🎲 Types of Patterns Once we identify the direction and characteristics of trend lines, we can go on and classify the pattern in following categories. Details below. Please note that examples are generated programmatically. 🎯 Rising Wedge (Contracting) Rules for Contracting Rising Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are Rising Trend Lines are converging. 🎯 Rising Wedge (Expanding) Rules for the Expanding Rising Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are rising Trend Lines are diverging. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Contracting) Rules for the Contracting Falling Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are falling Trend Lines are contracting. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Expanding) Rules for the Expanding Falling Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are falling Trend Lines are diverging. 🎯 Contracting/Converging Triangle Rules for the Contracting Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is falling The lower trend line is rising Naturally, the trend lines are converging. 🎯 Rising Triangle (Contracting) The rules for the Contracting Rising Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is flat The lower trend line is rising Naturally, the trend lines are converging towards each other 🎯 Falling Triangle (Contracting) The rules for the Contracting Falling Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is falling The lower trend line is flat Naturally, the trend lines are converging towards each other 🎯 Expanding/Diverging Triangle Rules for the Expanding Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is rising The lower trend line is falling Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other. 🎯 Rising Triangle (Expanding) The rules for the Expanding Rising Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is rising The lower trend line is flat Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other 🎯 Falling Triangle (Expanding) The rules for the Expanding Falling Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is flat The lower trend line is falling Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other 🎯 Rising/Uptrend Channel Rules for the Uptrend Channel are as follows Both trend lines are rising Trend lines are parallel to each other 🎯 Falling/Downtrend Channel Rules for the Downtrend Channel are as follows Both trend lines are falling Trend lines are parallel to each other 🎯 Ranging Channel Rules for the Ranging Channel are as follows: Both trend lines are flat Naturally, the trend lines are parallel to each other.
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by Trendoscope
47
Full Time Trading. Everything You Need to Know Once you mature in trading and become a consistently profitable trader, the question arises: are you ready to trade full time? Becoming a full time trade is a very significant step and my things must be taken into consideration before you make it. ✨ Becoming a full time trader implies that you quit your current job, that you give up a stable income - your salary. In contrast to classic job, trading does not give guarantees . Please, realize that such a thing as stable income does not exist in trading. Trading is a series of winning and losing trades, positive and negative periods. For that reasons, remember that in order to become a full time trader, your average monthly trading income must be at least twice as your monthly expenses. ✨ Moreover, even if your trading income is sufficient to cover two months of your life, that is still not enough. You must have savings. Trading for more than 9 years, I faced with quite prolonged negative periods. One time I was below zero for the entire quarter. For that reason, supporting a family and living a decent life will require savings that will help you not to sink during the losing periods. ✨ Another very important sign is your correct and objective view on your trading. Please, realize that if you bought Bitcoin one time and made a couple of thousands of dollars, it does not make you a consistently profitable trader. Please, do not confuse luck with the skill. Your trading must be proven by many years of trading. ✨ You must be emotionally prepared for the living conditions that full time trading will bring you. Being a full time trader implies that you are constantly at home, you work from home from Monday to Friday. You do not see your colleagues, your social life will change dramatically. I know a lot of people who started to trade full time and then realized that they can not work from home for different reasons. ⭐️ So what are the necessary conditions for becoming a full time traders: you should have savings that will cover the negative trading periods, your average monthly trading income should be at least twice as your monthly expenses, your trading efficiency must be proven by objective, consistent results, and you must be psychologically prepared for working from home. When these conditions are met, you can make a significant step and become a full-time trader. Are you ready? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
22