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Wave Analysis

Actual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending TrianglesActual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending Triangles Here is an analysis of the actual success rates of ascending and descending triangles in trading, based on the information provided: Success Rates Ascending and descending triangles generally have fairly high success rates as continuation patterns: -The ascending triangle has a success rate of approximately 72.77%. -The descending triangle has a slightly higher success rate of 72.93%. These numbers come from a study that tested over 200,000 price patterns over a 10-year period. Factors Influencing Success Several factors can influence the success rate of these patterns: -The trader's ability to execute the strategy correctly -Market conditions at the time the triangle formed -Market liquidity -Overall market sentiment Important Points to Consider -Triangles are considered reliable continuation patterns, especially in trending markets. -The ascending triangle in an uptrend is statistically more reliable than the descending triangle. -To validate the pattern, the price must touch at least twice each of the upper and lower lines. -An increase in volume during the breakout is an important confirmation sign. Strategies to improve the chances of success -Wait for the triangle to fully form before entering a position1. -Confirm the breakout with a close above/below the resistance/support level. -Use additional technical indicators to confirm the signal. -Pay attention to the volume, which should increase during the breakout. Conclusion Although ascending and descending triangles have relatively high success rates, it is important to use them in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and to take into account the overall market context to maximize the chances of success.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Rules of Motive WavesMotive Waves are the components of Elliot Wave structure. Motive Waves consists of 5 sub-waves of which 3 are impulse (In the direction of trend) and 2 corrective waves. The Motive Wave in the upward direction will start with Swing High, Ends with Swing High and consists of 3 Higher Highs and 2 Higher Lows representing strong upward trend. Motive Wave in the downward direction will start with Swing Low, Ends with Swing low and consists of 3 Lower Lows and 2 Lower Highs representing strong downward trend. 🎲 Types of Motive Waves Motive Waves are broadly classified by two types: Impulse Waves Diagonal Waves Diagonal Waves are further classified into Contracting and Expanding Diagonals. These can fall into the category of either leading diagonal and ending diagonal. 🎲 Rules of Motive Waves 🎯 Generic Rule of any motive waves are as follows Should consist of 5 alternating waves. (Swing High followed by Swing low and vice versa) This can start from Swing High and end in Swing High or start from Swing Low and end in Swing Low. Wave-2 should not move beyond Wave-1. This means, the Wave-2 is always shorter than Wave-1 with respect to distance between the price of start and end. Wave-3 always moves beyond Wave-1. This means, the Wave-3 is always longer than Wave-2 in terms of price Among Wave-1, Wave-3, and Wave-5, Wave-3 is never the shortest one. This means, either Wave-1 or Wave-5 can be longer than Wave-3 but not both. Wave-3 can also be longest among the three. Here is the pictorial representation of the rules of the Motive Waves For a wave to be considered as motive wave, it also needs to follow the rules of either impulse or diagonal waves. 🎯 Rules for a 5 wave pattern to be considered as Impulse Wave are: Wave-4 never overlaps with Wave-1 price range Wave-1, Wave-3 and Wave-5 should not be either expanding or contracting. Meaning, we cannot have Wave-1 > Wave-3 > Wave-5 , and we cannot have Wave-1 < Wave-3 < Wave-5 Pictorial representation of the impulse wave rules are as below: 🎯 Rules for the Diagonal Waves are as follows Contrary to the first rule of impulse wave, in case of diagonal wave, Wave-4 always overlaps with Wave-1 price range. Wave-1, Wave-3 and Wave-5 are either in expanding formation or contracting formation. That means, we need to have either Wave-1 > Wave-3 > Wave-5 OR Wave-1 < Wave-3 < Wave-5 Pictorial representation of the Contracting Diagonal Wave is as below. Here, the Wave-1, Wave-3 and Wave-5 are in contracting formation. Pictorial representation of the Expanding Diagonal Wave is as below. Here, the Wave-1, Wave-3 and Wave-5 are in expanding formation.
Education
by Trendoscope
7
3 Standard Deviation Setup on Micro 10-Year Yield FuturesIntroduction The Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract has caught the attention of many traders recently, as its price action reached the upper 3 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band® in the daily time frame. This rare occurrence presents a potential mean reversion setup, where the price could revert back toward its historical average. This article explores what mean reversion is, why it matters in trading, and how the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands® setup may indicate an opportunity to short this market. We’ll also discuss key price levels, contract specifications, and a potential trade setup for shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. What is Mean Reversion in Trading? Mean reversion is a trading concept based on the idea that asset prices fluctuate around a central value or mean over time. When prices move too far away from this mean, they often correct or revert back toward that average. This is particularly useful in markets that experience high volatility or extreme price movements, as those extremes tend to reverse at some point. In simple terms, mean reversion strategies involve selling (or shorting) assets when they are significantly above their historical average, with the expectation that prices will return to normal levels. Conversely, buying when prices are significantly below the mean can also be a valid strategy. The 3 Standard Deviation Bollinger Band® Setup Bollinger Bands® are a popular technical indicator used to measure volatility and price extremes. The bands are plotted a certain number of standard deviations away from a moving average. The further away prices move from the average, the more extreme the movement. Reaching the upper 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® is a rare occurrence that suggests extreme overbought conditions. Historically, when an asset reaches this level, the likelihood of a price pullback increases, as market participants may see it as an unsustainable level. In the case of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, the recent rally has pushed prices to this rare zone, setting the scene for a potential mean reversion. Key Price Levels and Resistance Zones As the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures price approaches extreme levels, there are two key resistance zones which traders should be aware of: 4.174-4.021. These levels represent areas where selling pressure might intensify, pushing prices down and aiding in the mean reversion process. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential mean reversion setup can consider initiating short positions within this resistance range. These resistance zones act as psychological and technical barriers, providing an opportunity for traders to place their entries. Additionally, these levels help to manage risk, as they define a clear area to set stop-loss orders just above the upper resistance. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Understanding the specifications of the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract is crucial for traders looking to execute any trade. Here are some of the key details: Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.001, which equates to $1 per tick. Margin Requirements: Margin requirements vary. Currently, the initial margin for Micro Yield Futures is around $320 per contract, making it accessible to a wide range of traders. Check with your broker for specific margin amounts. This knowledge is essential in calculating potential profit and loss in dollar terms, as well as determining the appropriate position size based on your available margin. Trade Setup Example Let’s now move on to a practical trade setup based on the discussed conditions. Entry Point: Shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures within the resistance range between 4.174 and 4.021. Stop Loss: A stop should be placed just above the upper resistance, say around 4.175, to protect against further price appreciation. Target: The target for this mean reversion trade would be around the mean of 3.750, where prices are expected to revert based on historical behavior. Reward-to-Risk Calculation: If a short entry is made at 4.021, with a stop at 4.175 (154 basis points risk) and a target at 3.750 (271 ticks potential gain), the reward-to-risk ratio would be approximately 1.76:1. A higher entry point closer to the upper resistance at 4.174 would significantly improve the reward-to-risk ratio, but it also increases the likelihood of missing the entry if the market reverses before reaching that level. In dollar terms, each tick (0.001) is worth $1, so the 154-tick stop loss represents a risk of $154 loss per contract, while the potential reward of 271 ticks equates to $271 worth of gains per contract. Risk Management Considerations Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, especially in futures trading. While the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® setup provides a compelling case for mean reversion, it's essential to manage risk carefully to avoid significant losses. Stop-Loss Orders: A well-placed stop-loss is crucial to protect against unexpected market moves. In this case, placing the stop above the resistance zone (around 4.175) ensures that risk is controlled if the market continues to rally instead of reversing. Position Sizing: Given the volatility of futures contracts, it is important to adjust position sizes according to the trader’s risk tolerance and available margin. Overleveraging can lead to large losses if the market moves against the trade. Moving Averages Can Shift: It’s important to remember that the moving average (the mean) can change as new data comes in. While the target is currently around 3.744, this level may adjust over time, so traders need to monitor the mean as the trade progresses (which is why we have set the target to initially be slightly higher at 3.750). Resistances as Reinforcements: The resistance zone between 4.174 and 4.021 can act as reinforcements to the mean reversion. Traders should observe price behavior at these levels to confirm rejection signals before entering the trade. Conclusion In conclusion, the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract presents a unique trading opportunity as it has reached the rare 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® on the daily time frame. This extreme price level indicates potential overbought conditions, making it a candidate for mean reversion back to the mean at approximately 3.750. The trade setup involves shorting within the resistance range, with a well-defined stop and target, and offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. However, as always, caution is advised, and traders should manage risk effectively using stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading. When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections. Meaning of the 45 degree line: The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market. Main characteristics -Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart. -Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time. -Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction. Use in Technical Analysis Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways: -Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong. -Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend. -Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line. -Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis. Integration with other tools The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy. In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
What is Structure Mapping in Gold Trading XAUUSD? Structure mapping is essential for day trading, scalping and swing trading gold. It is applied for trend analysis, pattern recognition, reversal and trend-following trading. In this article, I will teach you how to execute structure mapping on Gold chart and how to apply that for making accurate predictions and forecasts. Take notes and let's get started. Let's discuss first, what is structure mapping? With structure mapping, we perceive the price chart as the set of impulse and retracement legs. Structure mapping can be executed on any time frame and on any financial market. Look at a Gold chart on a 4H time frame. What I did, I underlined significant price movements. Each point where every leg of a movement completes will have a specific name and meaning. On a gold chart, I underlined all such points. These points are very important because it determines the market trend and show the patterns. When you execute structure mapping, the first thing that you should start with the identification of a starting point - the initial point of analysis. On a price chart, such a point should be the highest high that you see or the lowest low. If you start structure mapping with a high, that high will be called Initial High. A completion point of a bearish movement from the Initial High will be called Lower Low LL. A bullish movement that completes BELOW the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Lower High LH. A bullish movement that completes on the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Equal High. A bullish movement that completes above the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Higher High HH. If you start with the low, such point will be called Initial Low. A completion point of a bullish movement from the Initial Low will be called Higher High HH. A bearish movement that completes ABOVE the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Higher Low HL. A bearish movement that completes on the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Equal Low. A bearish movement that completes below the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Lower Low LL. Look how I executed structure mapping on Gold chart. Starting with the lowest low, I underlined all significant price movements and its lows and highs. You should learn to recognize these points because it is the foundation of gold structure mapping. Combinations of these points will be applied for the identification of the market trend, trend reversal and patterns. According to the rules, 2 lower lows and a lower high between them are enough to confirm that the market is trading in a bearish trend. While 2 higher highs and a higher low between them confirm that the trend is bullish . In a bullish trend, a bullish violation of the level of the last Higher High will be called a Break of Structure BoS. That event signifies the strength of the buyers and a bullish trend continuation. A bearish violation of the level of the last Higher Low will be called Change of Character CHoCH . It will mean the violation of a current bullish trend. In a bearish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last Lower Low will be called a Break of Structure BoS . It is an important event that signifies the strength of the sellers and a bearish trend continuation. While a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high will be called Change of Character CHoCH. That even will signify a violation of a bearish trend. That's how a complete structure mapping should look on Gold chart. With the identification of the legs of the move, highs and lows, BoS and ChoCh you can clearly understand what is happening with the market. Gold was trading in a bearish trend. Once the level of our Initial Low was tested, the market started a correctional movement and started to trade in a bullish trend. Once some important resistance was reached, the market reversed. We saw a confirmed CHoCH and the market returned to a bearish trend. Structure mapping is the foundation of technical analysis. It is the basis of various trading strategies and trading styles. It is the first thing that you should start your trading education with. I hope that my guide helped you to understand how to execute structure mapping in Gold trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: US Election Oil Play1. Introduction The 2024 US Presidential Election could have a significant impact on global markets, especially energy sectors like crude oil. With key policies and geopolitical tensions hinging on the outcome, many traders are eyeing a potential price surge in WTI Crude Oil futures. Our prior article (linked below) presented a potential opportunity for crude oil prices to rise by over 40% within a year following the election. This could bring WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025) from its current price of 67.80 to around 94.92. To capitalize on this potential opportunity, a strategic options play can be used to leverage this potential move, providing not only a chance to profit from a bullish breakout but also some protection against downside risk. This article explores a Breakout Booster Play using options on the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil futures contract (CLZ2025), designed to benefit from a possible post-election oil price surge. 2. Technical Overview In analyzing the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025), a strong support level is identified. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns perfectly with a UFO support zone at 55.62, suggesting a significant area where buying interest could emerge if prices fall to this level. The current price of CLZ2025 is 67.80, and the technical analysis points to the possibility of a substantial bullish move following the 2024 US Presidential Election. The projected price increase of 40% could push crude oil prices up to 94.92 over the next year. However, even a more conservative target of 20% (around 81.36) could offer considerable upside potential. This analysis provides the foundation for constructing an options strategy that not only takes advantage of the potential upside but also offers a buffer zone against downside risk by capitalizing on key support levels. 3. The Options Strategy The options strategy we'll use here is a Breakout Booster Play designed to take advantage of the expected rise in crude oil prices. Here's how the strategy is constructed: 1. Sell 2 Puts at the 55 Strike: Expiring on November 17, 2025, these puts are sold to collect a premium of approximately 3.27 points per contract. By selling 2 puts, we collect a total of 6.54 points. This creates a buffer zone, allowing us to take on some downside risk while still profiting if prices remain above 55. 2. Buy 1 Call at the 71 Strike: Also expiring on November 17, 2025, the call is purchased for 6.28 points. This call gives us the potential for unlimited upside if crude oil prices rise above 71. Net Cost: The net cost of this strategy is minimal, with the collected premium from the puts (6.54) offsetting most of the cost of the call (6.28). The result is a credit of 0.26 points, meaning the trader gets paid to enter this position. Break-Even Points: The position would lose money only if crude oil falls below 54.87 (factoring in the premium collected). Profit potential becomes significant if crude oil rises above 71, with large gains expected if the projected move to 81.36 or 94.92 materializes. This strategy effectively positions the trader to profit from an upward breakout while maintaining a buffer against downside risk. If crude oil drops, losses are limited unless it falls below 54.87, at which point the trader would be required to take delivery of 2 crude oil futures contracts (long). 4. Profit and Risk Analysis Profit Potential: The key advantage of this options strategy is its profit potential on the upside. If crude oil prices rise above 71, the purchased call will start gaining value significantly. If crude oil reaches 94.92 (a 40% increase from the current price), the long call will be deep in the money, resulting in substantial profits. Even if the price rises more conservatively to 81.36 (a 20% increase), the strategy still allows for meaningful gains as the call appreciates. Since the net entry cost is essentially zero (with a small credit of 0.26 points), the potential profit is high, and it becomes especially powerful above 71, with unlimited upside. Risk Management: This strategy comes with a 19% buffer before any losses occur at expiration, as the break-even point is 54.87. However, it is important to note that if the trade is closed before expiration, losses could be realized if crude oil prices have dropped, even if the price is above 55. Risk Pre-Expiration: If crude oil prices fall sharply, especially before expiration, the trader could face significant losses. The risk is theoretically unlimited because, as the market moves against the sold puts, their value could rise dramatically. If a trader needs to close the position early, those puts could be worth significantly more than the premium initially collected, resulting in losses. Potential Margin Calls: If crude oil drops far enough, the trader may receive a margin call on the short puts. This could happen well before the price reaches 54.87, depending on the speed and size of the drop. If not managed properly, this could force the trader to close the position at a significant loss. While there is a built-in buffer, this trade requires active monitoring, particularly if crude oil prices start to decline. Risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, rolling options, or hedging, should be considered to mitigate losses in case the market moves unexpectedly. 5. Contract Specs and Margins WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.01 per barrel. Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $10 per contract. Margin Requirement: Approximately $6,100 per contract (subject to change based on market volatility). Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $1 per contract. Margin Requirement: Approximately $610 per contract, offering a lower capital requirement for smaller positions. Why Mention Both? Traders with larger capital allocations may prefer using standard WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, given their greater exposure and tick value. However, for smaller or more conservative traders, Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) provide a more accessible way to enter the market while maintaining the same exposure ratios in a smaller size. 6. Summary and Conclusion This options strategy provides a powerful way to capitalize on a potential post-election rally in crude oil prices, while offering downside protection. The combination of selling 2 puts at the 55 strike and buying 1 call at the 71 strike, all expiring on November 17, 2025, creates a structured approach to profit from a bullish breakout. With current analysis based on machine learning suggesting a potential 40% increase in crude oil prices over the next year, the long call offers unlimited profit potential above 71. At the same time, the sale of the puts at the 55 strike gives the strategy a 19% buffer, with the break-even point at expiration being 54.87. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CLZ2025Education
by traddictiv
A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership? While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes. 2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month): Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity. Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year): The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment. Long-Term (4 Years): Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices. 3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices: Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil: Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself. Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries. Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns. Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels. Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements: Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power. These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes. 4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president. Notable Historical Movements: George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy. Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period. Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases. Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets. 5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases. WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL): Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract. Practical Application: During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure. 6. Conclusion As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency. 7. Risk Management Reminder Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks: Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position. Leverage and Margin Control: Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets. Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections. Hedging Strategies: Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves. Monitoring Economic Indicators: Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements. By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
5
Nifty - Is it about to TOP OUT?This article will concentrate on the fundamental aspects of identifying the conclusion of Wave 5 within the framework of the Elliott Wave Principle. According to established guidelines: 1) Wave 5 typically projects to 61.8% of the distance covered by Waves 1 to 3. 2) The minimum extension is set at 38.2% of Waves 1 to 3. 3) In instances of extensions in the fifth wave, projections can reach as high as 100%. Upon analyzing the Nifty index using these criteria, we observe that the primary wave has extended, with a projection of 100% estimated at approximately 26,339. The next degree wave, comprising (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5), has a standard projection of around 26,385. Meanwhile, the lowest degree wave, represented as 1-2-3-4-5, has a typical projection of 61.8% at about 26,252. By integrating these figures, we identify a potential zone between 26,252 and 26,339 that may signify the conclusion of Wave 5. Examining the indicators for additional insights, we note that the monthly RSI is around 82, marking the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Considering all the aforementioned factors, it is plausible to suggest that the Nifty index may experience a reversal within this identified zone. However, i t is essential to remain aware that we are currently in a bull market, and we should await price action and candlestick patterns for confirmation before making any trading decisions. All wave counts are illustrated on the accompanying chart. For a detailed explanation on Elliot waves basics, please refer to the following link:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elliottwavetheory.asp DISCLAIMER: It is important to note that the information provided in this analysis is intended solely for educational purposes. It is strongly advised to consult with a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. I cannot be held responsible for any financial losses that may occur.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by harshit22
2
Understanding Order Block Trading StrategyOrder block trading is a technical analysis strategy that identifies potential support or resistance levels based on the accumulation or distribution of orders within a specific price range. These areas are often referred to as "order blocks." Key Concepts: Order Block: A price range where a significant number of buy or sell orders have been placed. Support: A price level where demand is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. Resistance: A price level where supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. Identifying Order Blocks: Price Action: Look for areas where the price has consolidated or paused for a significant period, indicating a potential accumulation or distribution of orders. Volume: Analyze the volume profile to confirm the presence of an order block. High volume during consolidation can indicate a larger accumulation or distribution. Structure: Consider the overall market structure and trend direction. Order blocks are more likely to be effective in a trending market. Trading Strategies: Buying at Support: If the price approaches a confirmed support level (an order block where accumulation has occurred), consider buying with the expectation that the price will bounce off the support. Selling at Resistance: If the price approaches a confirmed resistance level (an order block where distribution has occurred), consider selling with the expectation that the price will reverse downward. Using Order Blocks as Targets: Once a trade is initiated, use the order block as a potential profit target. If the price reaches the order block level, consider taking profits. Stop-Loss Placement: Place a stop-loss below the support level for long positions and above the resistance level for short positions to manage risk. Example: In this example, the shaded area represents an order block where a significant number of buy orders were likely placed. If the price approaches this level from below, traders might consider buying with the expectation that the price will bounce off the support. Note: Order block trading is not a foolproof strategy and requires practice and experience to master. It's essential to combine this technique with other forms of technical analysis and risk management strategies.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Trade_With_Prakash
Stock Market Logic Series #10Do you think the above is a coincidence? There are no coincidences in life - only cause and effect. You are where you are because of a cause that is bound to physical and natural laws. The same pressure of physics that works on the airplane wing, or the balloon that wants to push its way up when pressed into water (pool), also works in the stock market. You just have to KNOW how to SEE it. follow my explanation. If you follow the price action, you can see clearly where the high-pressure volume comes in, you can't miss it. It is obviously seen. Then you need to wait for the correction, and you want to see that the correction is demonstrating a low-volume pressure behavior. When you see this low volume pressure behavior, the stock has DRIED UP. This DRYING-UP effect is a key indicator of a probable future LIFT and stock movement. You want to ask yourself the question: Why the stock is not falling down anymore? The question of "WHY" is searching for the cause BEHIND the stock movement. The stock movement is only the effect! In previous posts, I explained the other LOGIC behind this pattern, and explained why the price should not fall down and with a high probability of going up. If you read any of the books of Jesse Livermore, he clearly states that you need to "KNOW" that the stock will move your way, first let the market "SHOW YOU" exactly what will happen, and only then you put in a trade. The KEY CONCEPT in this idea is the DRYING UP OF VOLUME. When you understand the WHY behind the stock movement, buying and selling are emotionless. The focus should be only a trading setups that you "KNOW" it is highly probable to move in your expected trade direction. You "KNOW" because you have stock market LOGIC to back it up. If you want a specific post about Jesse Livermore's trading rules, let me know in the comments. It is always important to make sure that you have the correct perspective on the stock market, otherwise, you get confused. There is only at every given time only ONE side to the market as Jesse Livermore said, "The RIGHT SIDE". This goes back to my idea, that at every given time the puppet master ONLY buys or sells but NOT BOTH.
NASDAQ:POETEducation
by ZoharCho
Friday’s SPX Options Chain Already Priced in Today’s DropToday’s sharp 2.2% SPX decline wasn’t a surprise for those who looked closely at the options metrics after Friday’s spot price fakeout . Ahead of the long weekend, market participants priced in the downside with both short- and long-term options . BEFORE TODAY OPEN Put options were nearly twice as expensive as calls at equivalent Expected Move distances before Tuesday's open! BEFORE TODAY CLOSE While today’s drop has led to some call skew on weekly options, suggesting a short-term rebound , the long-term bearish sentiment remains intact. Key unemployment data this week will be crucial for the market’s next move. If you'd like to see the option chain metrics in your charts, be sure to check out our free demo script here:
SP:SPXEducation
by TanukiTrade
Pattern Recognition Series Episode 1: GOLDHere's an in-depth look at Volume Spread Analysis. We use tape reading to gauge future price movements based on the magnitude of previous price movements. This helps us determine the driving force of the market and position ourselves on the same side as the large operators within any market. The key is understanding what VSA allows us to see. Volume = activity therefore Ultra High Volume (UHV) shows the activity of not only the public but also the Large Operators of that particular asset. This video shows that the demand in the upward trend channel diminished while the supply increased giving me the confidence to trade in alignment with the largest of the two opposing forces. By use of Bar by Bar Volume Spread analysis the operator then uses each bar to quantify the upcoming price movement. Climactic volume is a sign that prices are likely to reverse and that a stopping action has occurred. When analyzing UHV you want to assess the Effort (volume) and the Result(price). Remember the markets abide by the laws of Supply and Demand, Effort vs Result, Cause and Effect, and the Law of Attraction. I hope you guys enjoy the video! Happy Trading! -J Hair
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by JHair20
Transition of Support to Resistance and Vice Versa(Video 6 of 6)During these 6 videos, we explored and analyzed the prevalent trends in the market and how upward and downward trends develop. We introduced methods on how to work with sideways trends. Additionally, we discussed two scenarios that can enhance the probability of new trend formation.Finally, in this video, we introduced support and resistance zones to enhance your understanding of the formation of market highs and lows and analyzed their relationship with the existing trends. Thanks for watching!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SpaceIchimoku