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Wave Analysis

A simple guide to creating a solid portfolio.Hello, Creating a solid portfolio can be a tough task for most investors. Understanding easy ways of beginning that journey can greatly improve your performance as an investor & greatly amplify your results. The times of just buying the S&P and waiting for your money to keep growing is long gone & active investing can widen the gap between yourself and the normal investor. Below we will be guiding on how you can future proof your stock picks using the NAS100 as an example & point of beginning. 1: Understand the index Understanding the index you want to begin with is the 1st point to look at. This will help you choose the correct index for your journey. In our case The Nasdaq 100 is an index of the hundred largest non-financial stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The companies included in this index are often technology or biotechnology firms. 2: Do an analysis of where the index is trading at A simple analysis of where the index is trading at guides you on where most of its components would be trading at. In our case the index is correcting giving as hope that we will easily find companies that are in great points for future buys. The health of the companies will be key in our choices. The chart below shows that we are in correction 3: Know the components of your index All the components of the NAS 100 can be easily found on the www.tradingview.com website via link www.tradingview.com A simple google search will also list all this companies for you. The NAS 100 has 100 components meaning that you have 100 companies to look at. For the purpose of this educational post we will be looking at the biggest 3 companies in the index. We shall evaluate the 3 companies using both fundamental analysis & technical analysis. From fundamental analysis we shall look at key metrics in the balance sheet (does the company have debt), From the income statement (Are revenues steadily increasing over time) & Cashflow statement (Does the company have positive free cashflow). Please note that you can always get deeper with understanding the companies more. Companies that you can access their products are even better for retail investors. Next, we shall evaluate the 3 companies from a technical view using wave analysis. We shall then make calls on whether we are looking for buys or sells or wait recommendations. The 3 companies we shall evaluate are Microsoft, Apple & Alphabet. Company 1: Microsoft Microsoft Corp engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. Key metrics 1: Does the company have debt: (Yes) 2023: Total debt 79.44 billion : Total Debt represents all the interest-bearing obligations of the company, regardless of when these obligations are due for payments. 2:Are revenues steadily increasing over time? Yes ( 2021: USD 168 billion, 2022: USD 198.27 billion, 2023: USD 211.92 billion) 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow Yes (2023: USD 59.48) Technical analysis Company 2: Apple Apple, Inc engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other variety of related services. Key metrics 1: Does the company have debt: Total debt: Total debt USD 123.93 billion : Total Debt represents all the interest-bearing obligations of the company, regardless of when these obligations are due for payments. 2:Are revenues steadily increasing over time? YES 2021: ‪USD 365.82 B‬ 2022: USD 394.33 B‬ 2023: USD ‪383.29 B‬ 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow: YES; USD 99.58 billion Technical analysis We have an alert for buy from USD 170.8 areas Company 3: Alphabet Alphabet, Inc is a holding company. It operates through the Google segment which includes its main Internet products such as ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Key Metrics 1: Does the company have debt: YES ‪USD 29.87 B‬ 2: Are revenues steadily increasing over time? YES. 2022: USD 280.88 B‬, 2023: USD 307.16B 3: Does the company have positive free cashflow: YES. USD 69.50 Billion Technical analysis Buying at current place not good. Look for sell if price breaks trendline aggressively. Below are our recommendations for the 3 stocks. Microsoft: No trade setup Apple: Look for buy from USD 170.8 areas Alphabet: Buying at current place not good. Look for sell if price breaks trendline aggressively. We will then look at all the other stocks that make the components of the index using the above metrics & choose the best stocks to invest in. Good luck in your journey. We shall be sharing more educational content.
Editors' picks
FX:NAS100Education
by thesharkke
10
Pivot Point 101This is 6 months of every day's Pivot Points. One point I want to make is that buying an S5 or S6 and selling at R5 or R6 is very doable trade, and you really don't need to worry about going outside the S6 ot R6 range, it's a revelation when you accept that fact. Going long here at S6 is literally the safest long there. Selling and Shorting at R6, same thing. plus your stop is just outside the Pivot Range. Unless you are using a trailing stop on a daytrade, you should use ATR stops. The other point I want to make is about daytrading in chop, vs Buying an S6 like on October 23rd, and holding for R6 till Tuesday 19th of December for 3000 NQ points. is swing trading a little boring, sure and it takes patience to hold for that long, and not trade in and out like most day traders do. But are we in this for a thrill or to make a profit?
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by dryanhawley
How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements. In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument. 1 - Identify the market trend When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends. Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action. In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year. Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months. Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time. Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months. Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish. 2 - Identify the directional bias The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market. In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term. 3 - Execute structure analysis Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures. That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities. When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels. Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past. 4 - Look for price action patterns Price action patterns are the language of the market. Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants. You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market. Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag. 5 - Analyze candlesticks Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations. You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle. Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal. Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities. You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4
Using Multi-timeframe analysis to make better trading decisionsTrading on multiple timeframes can significantly improve your risk-reward ratio, regardless of what TA technique, you are using. Let’s look at the recent example (SPY ETF) Third week of February started with a strong sell-off (Monday-Tuesday 13th). Price retraced >50% of the previous move, signaling potential trend reversal. At this point market Bears started scouting for daily low high to enter short trade. They received signal on Friday 16th when price broke previous day low. A short trader, who trades only daily chart, would enter this trade at Friday close with stop-loss slightly above daily high and 1st profit target near Tuesday low. This setup provides a decent risk-reward ration >2. There is also a chance that previous low will be broken and price will fall even further, adding to profit. So taking this trade makes a lot of sense. On the main graph to this post you can see how it developed. Price has not reached our profit target, reversed and made new high. Trade got stopped-out. Even if trader was using trailing stop (stop moved slightly above each new day high) this would not have saved him from huge overnight price jump Could have the trader done better? Yes, if he had zoomed into lower timeframe and monitored price action there. Here is what we can see on the 15m chart. (boxes show hourly candles, color coding matches hourly wave direction, you can read about how waves are constructed here ) Bearish reversal pattern shaped on Thursday- Friday. It is not an ideal triple top but there was a clear weakening of upthrust. Also, on Friday morning price broke previous day low, a sign of an increased bearish strength. Basically, at 21.30 (UTC+1) short trader already had enough evidence to enter trade. He could have done it w/o waiting for day closure. This would have already been a better entrance than in the first scenario. After entering the trade, trader could start monitoring for continuation. Tuesday was clearly bearish but on Wednesday there were multiple signs of shift of control. Firstly, price was able to set hourly higher low. Secondly, bearish wave was progressing very slowly. Finally, there was a 15 m equilibrium (end of Wednesday RTH) that resolved convincingly bullish. At this point a reasonable trader should have closed his trade without hesitation. This would not be a great trade still, but it will be a profitable one, with risk-reward 1.7 . It is nearly impossible to achieve same results looking just on the daily chart. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
Education: Riding the UNI wave to completionIn the world of crypto, altcoins like UNI offer amazing opportunities and lessons in market dynamics. For novice investors, understanding these dynamics can be a stepping stone to successful investing. Let’s look into the case of UNI and what its recent market movements can teach us. Understanding UNI and Its Market Significance UNI is the native token of Uniswap, a leading decentralized exchange platform that facilitates the trading of cryptocurrencies without the need for a central authority. This feature makes UNI not just a cryptocurrency but also a part of the evolving decentralized finance ecosystem. The Breakout from a Downtrend In November 2023, UNI broke out from a downtrend line that had been in place since around July/August 2022. This was a significant event for several reasons. A downtrend line is drawn by connecting the high points of an asset's price chart, showing a downward trajectory. When a breakout occurs, it indicates that the asset’s price has managed to surpass this line, suggesting a potential reversal in trend from bearish to bullish. Why This Breakout Mattered For traders and investors, a breakout from a long-established downtrend is a bullish signal. It suggests a change in market sentiment and possibly the start of an upward movement. In the case of UNI, this breakout was particularly noteworthy because the trendline had been respected and retested multiple times over several months, proving its significance. The Strategy Behind the Investment Based on this breakout, the decision to purchase UNI targeted a price of $12, a figure inspired by the prior resistance level from April 2022. In trading, resistance levels are where the price tends to find opposition as it rises. Once surpassed, such levels can boost confidence among investors. The Importance of Strategy and Discipline The UNI scenario underscores a few key principles in trading: Breakouts Are Bullish : A breakout from a downtrend signals a potential reversal to a bullish market. Retests Are Common : After breaking out, it's common for the price to retest the trendline, but not always. Set Clear Targets : Using Fibonacci targets or horizontal resistance levels helps in setting realistic exit points. In volatile markets, identifying a "war zone" of Fibonacci levels can be an effective strategy to scale out or close positions. Respect Your Exit Strategy : Especially after a significant price spike, adhering to your predetermined exit plan is crucial to capitalize on gains and minimize losses. Final Thoughts For novice investors, the UNI case is a good lesson in the principles of market analysis and trading discipline. It teaches the importance of recognizing trend reversals, setting clear goals, and adhering to a strategy despite market volatility. As you go on your trading journey, remember that knowledge, strategy, and discipline are your best tools for navigating the crypto markets. Whether it's UNI or any other asset, informed decisions and a clear plan will guide your path to success.
Education
by bitdoctor
How to Trade Broadening Formations. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hello traders investors and community. Today I show some important trading formations which can help to identify a profitable trading entry in the markets. These types are when confirmed highly probable trading set-ups to open whether a LONG or SHORT position. In volatile markets, these formations can develop quite often. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1.) Ascending Broadening Wedge 2.) Descending Broadening Wedge 3.) Broadening Wedge Bottoms 4.) Broadening Wedge Tops 5.) Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formations 6.) Descending Right-Angled Broadening Formations ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1.) Ascending Broadening Wedge These wedges most often break-out in the direction where they came from. So it is a wise idea to trade the break-out in the direction, otherwise, swing-trades can be traded from trend-line to trend-line in the broadening wedge. The target is the full height of the pattern, from the lowest low to the highest high forming the trendlines. Identifying tradable ascending broadening wedges can provide good risk and reward trades with high profit. 2.) Descending Broadening Wedge This Wedge is similar to the Ascending Broadening Wedge. We are looking for two touches for each trendline before a reversal and breakout happen as shown in my chart. The Breakout can be traded with a minimum target of the percentage distance from the full height of the pattern, from the lowest low to the lowest high. 3.) Broadening Wedge Bottoms Broadening Wedge Bottoms are as you can see in the picture provided in my chart. Reversals marking a significant reversal after a downtrend. The bottom is formed with three touches of the lower trendline and three touches of the higher trendline. The target is the highest high in the pattern minus the lowest low in the pattern. 4.) Broadening Wedge Tops Broadeing Wedge Tops are similar to Bottoms. They develop in a rising trend forming higher highs and lower lows in a broadening scale-like seen in the picture. Three higher highs marking the upper boundary of the formation and two lower lows marking the lower boundary of the formation. The target projection is the same as with broadening bottoms. 5.) Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formations They develop with a horizontal trendline and a sloping trendline. The price broadens over time in the formation forming three lows and two highs as you can see in the chart. The wedge breaks in the direction where it came from and can be traded either with swing trades in the wedge or with a breakout entry to trade the breakout. The target is the height of the complete wedge at the breakout point and is projected from the breakout in the breakout direction to determine the minimum target. 6.) Descending Right-Angled Broadening Formations These are the same as Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formation just with a little different structure. Here we have a horizontal lower trendline and a sloping higher trendline which are forming the overall formation. We see two touches of the lower trendline and three touches of the higher trend-line just as with the Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Formation. The price projection is also the same and the formation can be wisely traded in the breakout direction. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you like this tutorial feel free to support my work. Thank you. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ “The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend.” ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VincePrince
14
My view after two years (Sharp correction pattern)Hi there, I wanted to share my thoughts on Sharp's corrective pattern with you. I have been studying this pattern for about two years now and it follows three basic rules. The pattern consists of five waves that are similar to the impulse pattern. Based on my personal experience, this pattern can also be labeled as a triple zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z). While analyzing different markets, I found a similar number of this pattern and often labeled it as an impulse pattern by following the rules. As per the wave principle, after the completion of five waves, we look for three corrective waves which may also become more complicated. However, we then look for five more waves to complete a good zigzag pattern. But the market often surprises an analyst at this point. I hope my explanation helps you understand Sharp's corrective pattern a little better. Good luck!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by mehdi47abbasi79
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study Overview: Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe. Current Structure: On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II. Elliott Wave Principles: Corrective Structure: Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). Impulse Formation: The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves. Subdivision Details: Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern. Learning Points: Analyzing Market Cycles: Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers. Trend Anticipation: Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend. Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers. Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal. The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move. Validation and Risk Management: The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by RK_Chaarts
20
How did the price of gold change from 1970 to 2023?Hello everyone How did the price of gold change from 1970 to 2023? And the events that affected him The price of gold has continued to rise over the past five decades, from an average of $36 in 1970 to $2,080 in 2023. Despite gold's status as a long-term investment commodity, its value has declined several times. The periods of highs and lows coincided with difficult political and economic developments - investors' demand for gold as a safe haven rises when there are problems in the global economy, and weakens when things are going well. What can we learn from the past to be able to make predictions for the future? Gold is priced on a standard scale per ounce. 1 ounce = 31.1 grams 1970 - The average price of an ounce of gold is $36 In August 1971 - US President Richard Nixon abolished the dollar's peg to gold. The dollar was no longer converted into gold at a fixed value, $35 per ounce, and gold could be traded at fluctuating market prices In December 1974 - For the first time in 40 years, American citizens were allowed to keep gold bullion and coins. In June 1980 - Gold rose to a record high of $850 per ounce, as investors turned to the precious metal amid rising inflation due to strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, and the impact of the Iranian Revolution. From 1982 to 1988 - Fluctuations in global currency exchange rates, increasing concern about the US trade deficit and banking problems, and debt in Third World countries factor into gold fluctuations between $300 and $490. From 1989 to 1991 - this period witnessed conflict in the Arabian Gulf, the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline in the role of gold as a safe haven, and weak economic growth in general throughout the world. From 1992 to 1996 - Gold remained relatively stable. In August 1999 - The price of gold fell to its lowest level at $251.70 when central banks began reducing their gold reserves and mining companies sold gold in the futures markets to protect them from the decline. In February 2003 - The price of gold rose after it was considered a safe haven in the period leading up to the war in Iraq. December 2003 – Gold surpassed $400, reaching levels at which it was last traded in 1988. Gold was increasingly purchased by investors as a hedging tool for their investment portfolios. November 2005 – Spot gold trading exceeded $500 for the first time since December 1987, when it reached $502.97. May 12, 2006 - Gold prices rose to $730 per ounce as investors turned to commodities as a result of the weak dollar, stable oil prices, and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions. On June 2, 2008 - Spot gold exceeded $850. March 13, 2008 – Trading in the benchmark gold contract exceeds $1000 for the first time in the US futures market. On March 17, 2008 - the price of spot gold reached its highest level at 1030.80 per ounce. On September 17, 2008 - the price of spot gold jumped nearly $90 per ounce - a single-day record, as investors sought a safe haven amid turmoil in the stock market. February 20, 2009 – Gold once again rose above $1,000 per ounce to reach $1,005.40 during the financial crisis. December 1, 2009 – Gold exceeds $1,200 per ounce for the first time as the dollar declines. On May 11, 2010 - Gold recorded a new high, exceeding $1,230 per ounce after investors resorted to gold as a safer investment haven with continued concerns about debt contagion in the Eurozone. September 17, 2010 – Gold reached a new record high exceeding 1,282 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and economic uncertainty. September 2011 – The Eurozone debt crisis prompts investors to shift money into gold, causing its price to rise to 1,923 per ounce. From 2012 to 2015 - Gold continued to decline as fears of a full-blown banking crisis eased after 2011, with gold reaching $1,094 in August 2015. In June 2016 - Brexit and its unknown consequences fuel a gold rush. Gold rose to its highest level in two years at $1,358. June 2017 – Gold reaches a year-high of $1,294 before falling back to an average of $1,200. On August 3, 2020, gold rose to the highest level in its history at 2,075 per ounce, as concerns about the economic repercussions of the coronavirus outbreak prompted investors to rush towards safe havens. Gold prices witnessed a record high with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, exceeding the threshold of $2,070 per ounce. Over the course of five days in March 2023, three small-to-mid-size U.S. banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in global bank stock prices and a swift response by regulators to prevent potential global contagion. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed when a bank run was triggered after it sold its Treasury bond portfolio at a large loss, causing depositor concerns about the bank's liquidity. Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, both with significant exposure to cryptocurrency, failed in the midst of turbulence in that market. The escalation in Gaza directly affected gold, with prices rising by about $2007 per ounce, which reflects investors’ demand for safe havens. I hope you got some knowledge from this! if you have any questions let me know... Thanks
Editors' picks
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by SroshMayi
72
The truth about Buy at the bottom & sell at the topHello, If you're here, you've likely encountered the timeless advice of "buying at the bottom and selling at the top " is an advice you must have heard by now. However, executing this is one of the most difficult things for most people to do. This is majorly because most people cannot tell where the stock is at during any particular point in time. Fundamentals will tell you the estimated valuation of a stock, what the company does as a core business activity, where it derives its revenues, where it burns most of its cash and all other metrics including the cashflow situations. However, the stock market chart is very key in your valuation and price entry journey. The historical price chart would tell you the lowest and highest points a stock reached during a certain time period. Noting these key points can greatly amplify your results and giving you an edge against other traders. Notice how the current price of our chart IBM is nearing its highest point in a decade, suggesting it's not an opportune time for purchases. This is because structure can change once we get to the top and room for making a proper reward against risk is much limited. Investors who bought at the bottom in 2020 will begin liquidating their position which might result in stock prices coming down. For the chart I will be keeping a keen eye at the top to see how price would react. This can be shown over & over in many other charts to help investors with entry points. Goodluck & please feel free to share your comments.
NYSE:IBMEducation
by thesharkke
3
A B C WAVE BULL RUNI am looking at this unfolding. An A,B,C wave up. Most of the people commenting we are going down are trolls or uneducated. Just look at where we came from not to long ago at 13k so how is 40k a bear run, LOL. It is important to understand that reading different time charts is required to understand where we are going with price action. to find out where we are going for the hour, I look at the 4 hour , 6 hour and last 3 days. You have to zoom out to see and read the day and hours to understand the micro supports and resistance. I also hunt liquidity because thats a MM move. MM will always make money, so why not follow the MM along with reading maps and charts. we are definitely in a bull run. The ocean high and low tides have different up and down size waves, trading is like watching the ocean waves and predicting the behavior patterns of it, now translate that action in to human emotions, witch no one should trade with, but 80% do, so use it with MM. You have to follow the crowd to get in to the show, only a few selected can use the back stage doors. Cheers all. This is all just my observation and Opinion.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by walkndeadbigfoot
Trading a Symmetrical Triangle with Traffic Light SystemTrading a Symmetrical Triangle with Traffic Light System: Identifying, Trading Fakeouts, and Ensuring a consistent profitable Positive Expectancy Identify the Symmetrical Triangle: Locate the symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart, formed by converging trendlines with symmetry. Implemention of TLS: Green Light (Action): Observe consolidation above or below and outside of the triangle. Amber Light (Consolidation): As the price nears key levels and the apex, signaling potential volatility and future retest areas. Red Light (Action): Beyond the triangles upper or lower border/trendline, prepare for a significant price movement in the other direction or a strong continuation of the trend prior. Identifying a Fakeout: Look for sudden and sharp price movements that seem to break the trend but lack confirmation through increased volume or strong technical signals. Trading a Fakeout: Stay cautious during the amber light phase. If a potential fakeout is suspected, avoid entering trades until there's clear confirmation. Creating Positive Expectancy: Utilize the TLS to filter out false signals and improve trade accuracy. Focus on high-probability setups, and use a favorable risk-reward ratio for each trade. Recovering from a Trap: If caught in a fakeout, implement the "Test and Break" theory. Wait for a retest of the original breakout/breakdown point. If the price fails to break past this point, consider it a false move and adjust your trade accordingly. Positive Recovery Approach: Rather than accepting the loss, adapt your strategy based on the TLS signals and the retest theory. Use this as an opportunity to learn and refine your approach for future trades. Monitor and Adjust: Continuously monitor the trade, adjusting stop-loss and take-profit levels based on TLS signals and retest observations. This active management helps to maximize gains and minimize losses. Remember to apply risk management strategies and conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions. Stay adaptable and leverage the TLS to enhance the reliability of your trading strategy, turning potential setbacks into learning opportunities. Navigating Breakouts and Retests: Strategies with the Traffic Light System (TLS) Discover effective trading strategies for breakouts and retests, enhanced with the clarity of the Traffic Light System (TLS). Breakouts and Retests: Understand the dynamics of breakouts and subsequent retests, crucial for seizing market momentum. The TLS provides a clear signal for favorable entry points. Identifying Fakeouts: Sharpen your skills in recognizing false breakouts by evaluating volume, market sentiment, and multiple indicators through the TLS. Trading Strategy: Wait for confirmed breakouts, use retests as entry points, and execute with confidence and risk management, guided by the TLS signals. TLS in Action: Integrate the TLS into your analysis, enhancing precision in decision-making during breakouts and retests. Mastering breakout and retest trading involves technical analysis, market awareness, and the strategic use of the TLS, leading to confident and precise decision-making.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDEducation
by SmartMoneyDayTrading
3
DON't USE TRENDLINE FOR TRADESHello guys. I want to tell sm about trendlines and their lacks. As you know every trader has a personal thoughts about markets and strategies. So also about drawing TRENDLINES. This varietion Causes false signals for trading + smart money knows that retail traders what doing in charts. Based on this you can see various false signal when using trendlines. I suggest you do not use trendline for trades and replace it by finding best orderblocks It's big title for explaining only i want to tell briefly about it I would like to trade with BIG BOYS NOT A retails. THINK WISELY NOT SILLY
Education
by pichilotrades
2
Market Structure: Seeing In SwingsMarket Structure is simply making distinctions in price flow. its putting structure around what looks like chaos so that we have a way to measure and orient ourselves to any market in any timeframe. When I look at a market, I want to see objectively in swings. Swings are the common thread that weaves through all markets and timeframes, providing a clear indication of who is in control at any given moment. They consist of distinct components and follow a process, forming the foundation of my trading strategies and setups. Market Structure Definitions: Confirmed Swing High/Low: A new high confirms a swing low and a new low confirms a swing high. Relative: Major Swing: The largest reaction leg in your frame. Minor Swing: the next largest reaction leg. Balanced/Relative Swing: Same size reaction legs. Expanded Swing: Reaction leg larger than previous reaction leg. Components of a Swing: Impulse Leg: The leg that takes out a previous high or low. Reaction Leg: The retracement or pullback after the impulse leg. Impulse Leg Shelf: a small range at the end of an impulse leg Reaction Leg Shelf: A small range at the bottom of a reaction leg
NYSE:CMAEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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