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Wave Analysis

Wolfe Waves Example!This is not a forecast or a signal! it's just an example of an occasion which a pattern like Wolfe Waves worked well ! This chart has almost followed the rules of Wolfe waves , unless the first point is not exactly on the right place! 1st point: Start of the wave 2nd: First top of the channel 3rd: First low of the channel 4th: Second high of the channel regarding thee pivots! the next 2 pivots are useless since they are not a place to be considered as a Wolfe waves' points! 5th point: as it should be broke to channel! Open Trade: OT is breaking back to channel! Stop Loss: SL is just below the 5th point in long option and reverse of it, in short trades! I personally distinguish the pattern so late! but the Wolfe waves is a great way to find very profitable trades which is not so trending in these days
Education
by AliSignals
0904 DAILY PLAN AUDNZD to sell with RR>3Hello traders Remember our last idea on this ratio? There was chance to open buy on 4h chart with broken channel. But this ratio turn down very soon BY TESTING 4H RESISTANCE ZONE twice. If you open a trade on the circle position on 4h chart we marked out, now the reversal japanese pattern ( engulfing pattern) beneath 4H resistance zone was a signal to decice if you want to close manually or just wait till SL hit. ( I will close manually with break even). Go back on daily chart, there is a strong daily bearish signal by running beneath average band of BB for last few days. On such case with broken daily trend line, it would be a ideal chance to sell to next daily support. And if you taking 4h price action into consideration, you could make a setup with RR>3. Not bad, right? This is a ratio that goes slowly than popular pair. This is what you should know. So this is only for enducation purpose. Wont be a signal for my people. Good luck!!! LESS IS MRE!
Education
by FUNTRADER-Vera
1
How to build your Trading System?How to build your Trading System? A simple trading system should include: Step 1 Strategy to decide which direction to trade. Step 2 Before you enter a trade, set realistic profit targets and risk/reward ratios. What is the minimum risk/reward you will accept? Many traders will not take a trade unless the potential profit is at least RR>3. For example, if your stop loss is $1 per share, your goal should be a $3 per share in profit. After step 1, it does not mean you can open a position anywhere, anytime you like. You should wait for a confirming entry signal. Usually, we would use RSI and Bollinger Band with candle pattern to help us on this step. Step 3 No one can be 100% accurate. Control risk could help you have more chances to trade. How much of your portfolio should you risk on one trade? This will depend on your trading style and tolerance for risk. It should probably range from around 1% to 5% of your portfolio on a given trade. And you should not trade too many times a day since trading opportunities do not happen all the time. Step 4 A trade always end with three possibilities: target hit, stop loss hit or manually close with your Exit Rules. Step 5 Do Your Homework. Many experienced and successful traders are also excellent at keeping records. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how. More importantly, they want to know the same when they lose, so they don't repeat unnecessary mistakes. If you already a profitable trading system and keen on planning and recording all your trades, congratulations, you are in the minority on the way to trading successfully. Good luck!!! LESS IS MORE!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FUNTRADER-Vera
2
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.5 - "Double Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.5, where we talk further about two more different types of triangles - the Barrier and Expanded triangle. In the previous chapter we talked about the running flat and contracting triangle, but for these two, they are essentially the same but different overall shape! Most importantly, these are very common patterns within the realm of technical analysis and these textbook patterns also have Elliot Wave patterns within these common patterns. So, as you can see, if you can memorize the simple patterns, then you can start applying more advanced theories on top of them! Chapter 3 Glossary: 3.1 Zig-Zag Waves 3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat 3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle 3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle 3.5 Double-Three 3.6 Triple-Three ----- Double-Three A double-three pattern is most often distinguished by all the segments in the pattern being almost equal. This is also known as an accumulation period! Yes, most people who like to accumulate when markets are flat, even have Elliot Wave patterns applied. To have this outcome, the x-wave should be included in this category as well. It merely means that we can only look for flat patterns for corrections that form both before and after the x-wave. In a way, such a pattern resembles a double-flat pattern, the only difference being that the x-wave retraces more than 61.8% into the territory of the first correction (more on fib levels in the future chapters). When compared with the double flat pattern, a double three has no channelling component. Even in the case of a double flat, the channelling component is different from what channeling in general means. An important factor in trading a double three is knowing the timeframe the pattern is forming on. If it is forming on a longer timeframe, such as daily, weekly or monthly, then the market is basically taking a lot of time to consolidate, and it is not wise to take a trade based on the move that should follow such a consolidation. The reason for this is that swaps are going to be paid throughout all this time, and swaps are mostly negative. As a quick reminder of what a swap is, it is the difference between the interest rates of the currencies that make up a currency pair; and at the end of a trading day, providing the trades are not closed, a small amount is deducted or added to the trade. Paying a negative swap when trading a double three on the longer timeframes can prove to be an extremely expensive thing to do, and should therefore be avoided. Technicals: Again, apart from the normal and shorter corrections, there are actually more complex variations like the double or triple three (the triple three will be talked about in the next sub-chapter). These patterns are a combination of single and simple correction patterns like the zig-zag pattern, the flat, or the triangle variation. These single corrections are associated by a connecting X wave, which can take any corrective form, but is USUALLY in the form of a zig-zag pattern. Characteristics for complex corrections is a sideways movement (consolidation) as indicated by the blue rectangle box. Rules: • Zig-Zag patterns and triangles only happen once in this type of combination. • Triangles only appear as a Wave Y. • The difference to a double Zig-Zag correction apart from the components, is the horizontal orientation. A Zig-Zag corrects sharper and more against the major trend. → It is possible that two flats are appearing, but a flat followed by a triangle is a more common example. As the single corrections tend to alternate in form. The count for a double three is a W-X-Y. Double three’s are common in the more shallow part of the wave 4. ❗The purpose of double or triple threes is to expand the DURATION of the correction. ❗Watch out for a triangle or a final wave C to catch the continuation of the primary trend. This is where you want to possibly take the trade! If you have no idea what you are reading, start from chapter 1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
132
Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool? About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea. Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos. Delta Phenomenon In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order." Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse? I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy? Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement) How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future? Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why??? If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist. I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Fibonacci Extension (How To Use Tool)The tool can be applied to any time frame, from tick charts all up to daily or monthly charts; no matter what time frame you trade on the application of the tool is the same.Use the Fibonacci extensions tool to provide profit targets on trending trades. For slowing or weak trends, the 61.8 level tends to work best. For medium trends, the 100 level, and for stronger trends the 161.8 or higher targets are acceptable. Apply the Fibonacci extension tool to multiple waves, and even different time frames to be aware of different levels which may affect the price of an asset. Proponents of Fibonacci assert that each price wave has a mathematical relationship to waves that occur before and after it. This relationship is based on the “Golden Ratio” and a series of “Fibonacci Numbers” which help define the numerical relationship of one thing to another. The “Golden Ratio” is derived from this sequence. As the sequence progresses, if a number is divided by the prior number it produces a ratio: 3/2 is 1.5, 13/8 is 1.625. As the numbers progress the relationship reaches the Golden Ratio of 1.618. The Fibonacci Extension tool is applied to one wave of a price move, which in turn helps to predict where future waves in that trend will go to, and possibly reverse.These are commonly used Fibonacci extension levels:61.8%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8%, 200%, 238.2%, 261.8%. These Fibonacci Expansion levels are attained by finding relationships between the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, discussed above, through various calculations. The level the price stops at will vary depending on the strength of the trend. Most often we see the price pause or reverse at 61.8 (weaker trend), 100 (medium trend), or 161.8 (strong trend). Once the reversal occurs we can then draw another Fibonacci extension, but we will keep the old one(s) on the chart as well, since down the road there are additional levels which can still be used such as the 200, 238.2, 261.8 and 300. Use the Fibonacci Expansion tool in all markets and on all time frames. It is a trend following tool and helps isolate potential profit targets for trades. It is also used to spot areas where the price could reverse, although using it to predict reversals isn’t encouraged. The price may not stop exactly at a Fibonacci level, rather Fibonacci levels are just zones. We also don’t know if the price will reverse off a Fibonacci level, just stall or only pullback slightly. Sometimes the price will completely disregard Fibonacci levels, especially when major news occurs. In conclusion: Noted on daily GBPUSD is an Fibonacci Extension tool with a target/reversely at 161.8 (golden ratio)- up to 235 pips in profit on this swing trading. Risk management is always #1 when trading Forex.
Education
by Anbat
how to apply fibonacci fans and auto FibFans studyFibonacci Speed and Resistance Fan is an analytical drawing tool used to indicate the support and resistance levels of an existing trend and the price level at which possible changes in the trend may occur. A Fibonacci Speed Resistance Fan consists of a trend line drawn between two extreme points - a trough and opposing peak or a peak and opposing trough - on which a set of sequential speed resistance lines are drawn above (which represents time) and below (which represents price). These lines are drawn based on time/price percentages of the distance between the beginning and the end of the trend line. Speed resistance lines not only help to measure trend corrections but also measure the speed of a trend (the rate at which a trendline ascends or descends) Traders can use the lines of the Fibonacci Speed and Resistance Fan to predict key points of resistance or support, at which they might expect price trends to reverse. Once a trader identifies patterns within a chart, they can use those patterns to predict future price movements and future levels of support and resistance. Traders use the predictions to time their trades Nobody appears to know whether Fibonacci tools work because markets exhibit some form of natural pattern or because many investors use Fibonacci ratios to predict price movements, making them a self-fulfilling prophecy. In any event, key support and resistance levels tend to occur frequently at the 61.8-percent level (0.618) on both uptrends and downtrends Fibonacci Speed and Resistance Fans vs. Gann Fans Gann fans are another form of technical analysis based on the idea that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature. A Gann fan consists of a series of trend lines called Gann angles. Instead of relying on Fibonacci's golden ratio of 1.618, Gann believed the 45-degree angle (geometric angles of time versus price) to be most important. The Gann fan subsequently draws additional angles at 82.5, 75, 71.25, 63.75, 26.25, 18.75, 15, and 7.5 degrees. These angles are superimposed over a price chart to show potential support and resistance levels Step By Step Applying Fibonacci Speed and Resistance Fan Some interpretation examples: Example of how to identify if the move is Reversal or Retracement All the above are now available with the Auto Fibonacci Speed and Resistance Fans Study ʙʏ DGT ☼☾, LINK to Auto Fibonacci Speed and Resistance Fans Study
Education
by dgtrd
40
how to apply pitchfork and auto pitchfork studyPitchfork , is a technical indicator for a quick and easy way for traders to identify possible levels of support and resistance of an asset's price. It is presents and based on the idea that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature   * Developed by Alan Andrews, so sometimes called Andrews’ Pitchfork   * It is created by placing three points at the end of previous trends   * Schiff and Modified Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool derived from Andrews' Pitchfork In general, traders will purchase the asset when the price falls near the support of either the center trendline or the lowest trendline. Conversely, they'll sell the asset when it approaches the resistance of either the center line or the highest trendline. █  Usage Tips :   * Andrews' Pitchfork (Original) best fit in a Strong Trending Market   * Schiff and Modified Pitchfork better with Correcting or Sideways Market. Modified Pitchfork is almost identical to a Parallel Chanel Step By Step Applying Pitchfork Auto Pitchfork Study ʙʏ DGT ☼☾ Besides Auto Pitchfork Pivot, Support and Resistance plotting, study also includes Auto Fibonacci Retracement Levels and Zig Zag indicator Link to the Auto Pitchfork ʙʏ DGT ☼☾ :
Education
by dgtrd
194
Simplified Elliott; It can be confusingElliott wave is a great tool to have in your arsenal - I have been asked more and more about it recently. So I wanted to share a simplified breakdown. Of course it can be complex and detailed, it also requires constant tweaking. The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. (see linked idea below on this topic) Background Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948). He was an American accountant and author. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth, identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns. Elliott based part his work on the Dow Theory, which also defines price movement in terms of waves, but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. Elliott first published his theory of the market patterns in the book titled The Wave Principle in 1938. (source elliottwave-forecast.com) Why is it useful? Some traders swear by this method. others like myself like the concept and use it as part of the strategy. For me personally, I use it for the monthly and weekly directional bias. Smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense, Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli, where the smaller piece, if broken off from the bigger piece, does, in fact, look like the big piece. This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns), coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios. So where to start? First, identify Major swing highs and lows - True Elliottitions will go back several years in the analysis to get an exact count. But for the purpose of this explanation, I have taken the monthly swing highs and lows to identify a starting point. This is good enough for how I utilize Elliott principles. Once I have a starting point I am looking for a bias - Is this an impulsive or corrective move? This is what usually confuses people new to Elliott Theory, it can be very subjective. Hence constantly moving and re-plotting as price does what is expected - or completely against the trader's expectations. 3 Rules Most Elliott traders can agree - there are rules for every scenario, so in simple terms use these 3 rules as a starting point. Corrective moves can be complex as you will see if you dig deeper into Elliott Wave - that there are several ways of "fitting" the patterns into the current scenario. - this is just a simple example - more can be found on elliottwave-forecast.com Some other nuggets A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation. Wave 3 is an extension of 161.8% of the first wave in the Elliott wave count. This means that the third wave forms right after the completion of the second wave. To identify the 3rd wave, the second wave has to be complete and fall within the general rules of Elliott waves. NEW VS OLD The biggest change in today’s market compared to the one in 1930s is in the definition of a trend and counter-trend move. We have four major classes of market: Stock market, forex, commodities, and bonds. The Elliott Wave Theory was originally derived from the observation of the stock market (i.e. Dow Theory), but certain markets such as forex exhibit more of a ranging market. In today’s market, 5 waves move still happen in the market, but our years of observation suggest that 3 waves move happens more frequently in the market than a 5 waves move. In addition, the market can keep moving in a corrective structure in the same direction. In other words, the market can trend in a corrective structure; it keeps moving in the sequence of 3 waves, getting a pullback, then continues in the same direction again in a 3 waves corrective move. Thus, we believe in today’s market, trends do not have to be in 5 waves and trends can unfold in 3 waves. It’s therefore important not to force everything in 5 waves when trying to find the trend and label the chart. As I said on the front cover - this is not for experts, it's an intro to Elliott Theory. If there are Elliott traders reading, please contribute to the post. Add anything you find useful. The other post mentioned above was how the mindset plays into these waves and the overall moves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
91
Pure Price Action Breakout StrategyOn noted 4 hour GbpAud chart of this week: Pure Price Action Breakout Strategy happened: 1) Price Action could not break 1.81000 twice noted on chart (resistance) 2) Price Action finally did break out of 1.81000 on Wednesday and moved higher (now 1.81000 is support) 3) With a Buy order after breakout of 1.81000 and 50 pip stop loss ( your plan and risk management will determine lot size) 4) Target would have been set at a minimum of 100 pips or risk reward of 1:2 setup. * Noted set target on this GbpAud trade would have been hit in approximately two days. This set up happens on all time frames, but if swing trading, day trading or scalping- happens on 15 minute, 1 hour and 4 hours a lot per week. This Pure Price Action Breakout Strategy has a very high win rate%, especially on hourly or 4 hour time frame trades.
Education
by Anbat
📚 The Perfect Impulse - Correction - Impulse 📚NZDUSD has recently given us the perfect impulse, correct, impulse move, which is probably our favourite pattern to trade. The market moves in waves. There's an impulse wave, followed by a brief period of consolidation/correction where buyers and sellers accumulate their orders. This is often followed by another impulse wave in the same initial direction as the first impulse. The great thing about these patterns is that we can have a clear stop placement, which is above the correction. If you have a closer look at this chart, you will be able to notice various impulse waves followed by corrections. Do your best to find them in your trading!
Education
by WicktatorFX
19