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Wave Analysis

mastering elliot waves. positive progress. not much else.mostly just mustering the energy to label additional waves beyond m0,m1, and m2. Feel like I have had one or both feet in the grave this past week. Ok, enough with the relaxing thoughts. I was going to say that this wave falls under rule 1 condition a... but I was trying to do this from memory, and I'm not that confident in what the logical extensions of rule 1 condition a are. I think I'm supposed to label m1 with ":5", but I don't know what that label means besides it's part of an impulse pattern, and I'm not sure which pivot of m1 that ":5" goes on. I can see that it's an impulse without doing a lot of measuring, so I'm kind of getting impatient to understand what all the measuring is about. I can say that I'm further along today than yesterday, and I'm going to have to learn to be ok with that at least until I get some energy back. I'm feeling like typing on my computer adds 0 value to my life, and debatably subtracts from it.
NYSE:CEducation
by emehoke
Continuation Chart Patterns - Falling WedgeHello guys, this is an additional Tutorial idea following the previous one. You can also use this trick to read your chart if you want to make sure if it's bullish or not. It's called a Falling Wedge. What is a Falling Wedge? When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making. "The falling wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes lower lows and lower highs with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making." Now let's talk... Have you used this patterns? What are your experiences? Any tricks you got in mind so that we can improve reading charts based on it? Comment below!
Education
by ShawnMCR
5
Top 10 Patterns (Wolfe Wave) #7Wolfe Waves:Example of a bullish Wolfe wave on 15 mn GbpChf chart. Can be both bearish or bullish and on any time frames. The key to recognizing the setup is symmetry. Ideally, waves 1-3-5 are established with very regular timing intervals between moves. The other key ingredient is that the wave 4 should revisit the price range established by waves 1-2 for the best results. Another way to describe the pattern is that it comes as a rising wedge / channel in an uptrend, or falling wedge / channel in a downtrend. Wave 5 is often a false breakout move beyond the bounds of the pattern. Unlike either bull or bear flags, the movement is in the same direction as the overall trend, with the overlapping waves giving signals that an impending reversal is taking shape. This pattern has different names, depending on the source - Larry Pesavento describes the pattern as "3 pushes to a top/bottom" and uses Fibonacci relationships to confirm the setup (waves 3 and 5 are 127% or 162% extensions of the previous pullback.) Jeff Cooper uses "Cooper 1-2-3 swing" nomenclature, and Linda Raschke likes to call this setup "3 indians". The unique quality about Wolfe waves, however, is the objective target projection from waves 1 -> 4. Despite the great explanation and examples provided on Bill Wolfe's site, I continue to get questions about how much I trust this setup. Very much so.
Education
by Anbat
BTC Wyckoff Accumulation Accumulation: Wyckoff Events school.stockcharts.com PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Note: Springs or shakeout usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring. Test— Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—“back-up” . This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Accumulation: Wyckoff Phases Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. The approaching diminution of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC). These events are often very obvious on bar charts, where widening spread and heavy volume depict the transfer of huge numbers of shares from the public to large professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been relieved, an automatic rally (AR), consisting of both institutional demand for shares as well as short-covering, typically ensues. A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC. If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the TR. Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above. Sometimes the downtrend may end less dramatically, without climactic price and volume action. In general, however, it is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR and ST, as these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape but a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation. In a re-accumulation TR (which occurs during a longer-term uptrend), the points representing PS, SC and ST are not evident in Phase A. Rather, in such cases, Phase A resembles that more typically seen in distribution (see below). Phases B-E generally have a shorter duration and smaller amplitude than, but are ultimately similar to, those in the primary accumulation base. Phase B: In Wyckoffian analysis, Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (see Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the TR. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range. Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C. Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR (established in Phases A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of Phase C can be challenging. Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions. Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets. source:https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SALEHvert
Assigning Elliott Wave DegreesDid you know that you're able to change the labeling of the degree of a wave when drawing Elliott Waves? Elliott Wave Degree labels assist in the identification of the fractal patterns of Elliott Waves. These degrees are used for both motive and corrective waves (though only motive waves are labeled here). Each of the degrees have a standardized notation that indicates the degree of the wave, allowing the user to identify them more easily. While the different degrees of waves can be applied however someone would like on a chart, the order and length of time for degrees that are most often used from largest to smallest are: Grand supercycle: multi-century Supercycle: multi-decade Cycle: one to multiple years Primary: months to years Intermediate: weeks to months Minor: weeks Minute: days Minuette: hours Subminuette: minutes **Times associated with degrees are approximate** There are six more degrees that are used less often due to the extremely high and low time frames, they are: Supermillennium, Millennium, Submillenium, Micro, Submicro and Miniscule. In order to change the degree of the Elliott Wave, simply Double-click on the drawn wave, or select it and click the settings gear in the toolbar Go to Style Select desired degree from the dropdown Thats it! How often do you use Elliott Waves in your analysis?
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by TradingView
95
ESSENTIAL FOREX TRADING CONCEPTS YOU SHOULD KNOWI want to start by talking about something that I frequently see when trading and “how-to” trade is being discussed. The concept of trading having to be simplistic and not too complex, that the simpler your trading is, the better. Having a simplistic approach to trading is not realistic; you must balance trading between simplicity and complexity. There’s a reason why 90-95% of “trying-to-be-traders” never become or will be consistently profitable. Think of it in terms of having data; if you have limited data, your system or edge won’t be effective. Most likely, it will be random. But having too much data and information can be overwhelming and too confusing to do anything with it. So the question becomes, how do you balance your trading approach between simplicity and complexity? We do this by understanding that trading falls into three categories. And by knowing the components and elements of each category, we can define the way we trade so that our decision-making and observations are guided by objectivity. Basically, a well-formed trading setup consists of these three elements. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
FX:NGASEducation
by INotFancy
EURCHF - How To Trade This BreakoutEURCHF is within a descending channel of an ascending channel... pretty confusing I know but have a look at the chart and you can see which way price will be heading. What we need to do now is find the best entry which is safe and clean. From the diagram in the chart, you can see that our entry will only be after the break of the descending channel and after a bullish correction such as a bull flag. We need to make sure that price has the momentum to move up so we will be waiting for a breakout of the bullflag before entering with stops below the correction. Goodluck and trade safe!
Education
by WicktatorFX
2
EURCHF - How To Trade This BreakoutEURCHF is within a descending channel of an ascending channel... pretty confusing I know but have a look at the chart and you can see which way price will be heading. What we need to do now is find the best entry which is safe and clean. From the diagram in the chart, you can see that our entry will only be after the break of the descending channel and after a bullish correction such as a bull flag. We need to make sure that price has the momentum to move up so we will be waiting for a breakout of the bullflag before entering with stops below the correction. Goodluck and trade safe!
Education
by WicktatorFX
1
HOW-TO: Use the MTP WPT Script to project Elliott Wave TargetsIn this "How To" video, we take a look at how to use the MTPredictor WPT (Wave Price Targets) Script to project, in advance, possible areas where a manual Elliott Wave count is likely to end. First, you must have your own idea of an Elliott Wave count that you you wish to use on the chart in question. (How to perform manual Elliott Wave counts is not covered in this help video). Next, you tell the Script which Elliott Wave you would like to project the end of; then you tell the Script which pivots to use for your own manual Elliott Wave count. The Script then places coloured zones on the chart for the areas where the next anticipated Elliott Wave swing is likely to end. The coloured zones (or Wave Price targets as we call them) are clusters of the relevant Fib ratios from the previous swings. The scripts knows which ratios to use for which swings and then does the calculation to cluster the relevant price levels together for you in easy to see coloured zones. The Scripts can project the WPT zones for the possible end of Waves, 2, 3, 4, 5 and C. Please note: this is not a trade recommendation, you should all perform your own Analysis. Losses can and will unfold when Trading, please always use Stops and keep your losses small.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by MTPredictor
2
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.3 - "Market Psychology"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.3, where we will be learning about the 'Market Psychology' aspect of Elliott Waves . This is one of the most important and interesting proponents of the Elliott Wave theory as it constitutes all the psychological aspects within the whole market. If you have a clear understanding of market psychology within each level of wave structure or correction, you can get a good gist of what to predict what will happen even in the most basics of the five wave and simple abc correction. 📚 Chapter 4 Glossary: 4.1 Alternation 4.2 Channeling 📖 4.3 Psychology 4.4 Fib-Ratio 4.5 Motive Wave Multiples 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples ----- Market Psychology of the complete five wave and abc structure within Elliott Waves The beauty of EW is that its price actions are based on the collective reflection of the beliefs of all market participants - which is why market psychology is included within the theory. They represent mass psychology and the underlining dynamics from pessimism to optimism, back and forth . Waves 1-5 Market Psychology - Wave 1 is sometimes difficult to identify since it's the beginning of a trend, as the previous trend may be still intact. It also does not have clear price action, looks choppy and the waves are overlapping, forming wedges /diagonals. - Wave 2 retraces a lot within the price action made from wave 1. Most traders still speculate on the previous trend to continue and do not notice a possible new trend forming. - Wave 3 is almost always the biggest move. Most new EW traders can at least identify this. It represents the finished trend change, as wave 2 made a higher low followed by a higher high in wave 3. Also it is frequently extended, moving with strong momentum without any major corrections. - Wave 4 can generally be predicted easily, as they tend to "alternate" (ch. 4.1) to wave 2 and take more time to finish. It is usually a complex movement, tricking traders into false signals. - Wave 5 represents the final push in the direction of the PRIMARY trend. Usually wave 5 comes with lower volume and often shows a clear divergence in the indicators like the RSI ( bearish divergences). ABC Correction Market Psychology - Wave A can unfold in either a three or five wave structure depending on the situation. It represents the exhaustion created from the previous 5 wave, and is regularly not clearly visible as a lot of traders just think it is a normal pullback of the dominant trend. - Wave B is can take many shapes and are known for being a "bull-trap“. Many will long the top of the B wave. The B wave can either retrace much lower than wave A or shoot up fast, sometimes even above the last high, catching traders on the wrong side as a fake breakout occurs. Most will have subwaves and in textbook technical analysis , a right shoulder in a Head-Shoulder formation. - Wave C is impulsive and has five waves against the dominant trend. It usually has the length of wave A, but an extension to the 1.618 fib or even greater is possible, making them fast and devastating moves as they are punishing impulse waves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
14
⚡️ Understanding Breakout Traps ⚡️If we see a pattern form that retail likes to trade, It is highly likely that this pattern may get manipulated. The reason these common patterns get manipulated is because of liquidity forming. Banks want to make sure they can create enough liquidity for themselves to get positioned nicely in the market. They do this by driving the price up/down into stop loss areas. To avoid being caught out we need to sit on our hands, wait for the stop loss hunt to occur before we go-ahead with our initial position bias.
Education
by AlkalineFX
mastering elliot waves part 5. applying labels, failing.The ultimate goal of using Elliot waves is to label each wave with the knowledge that after a wave labeled L5, for example, we think that some type of directional movement is higher probability than picking randomly. In order to label a wave appropriately you have to do quite a bit of footwork. With the chart labeled as I have labeled it, and using the nomenclature suggested in the book, I was not able to label the m1 wave, which was my goal today. In order to label the m1 wave, I need to have more waves available. For example, one of the labels required me to draw comparisons to the duration and movement of m3 and/or m4. I don't have an established m3 or m4 on this chart the way that I have it drawn out. Therefore, I was not able to make any labels. On the inside I am crushed, however, this is my first time really trying to apply any of this. I should learn not to be so hard on myself. The author used a lot of terms that I don't have a working understanding of. The language was written so that Elliot wave masters could read along and be satisfied. For the new learners, it is complicated. It will require me to learn what is an x-wave, and the different types of corrections, as that is part of the identification process. --- If there is anyone out there who knows a thing or two about labeling waves, how would you label these waves? Or how would you have drawn them differently?
CME_MINI:NQU2021Education
by emehoke
mastering elliot waves. Rules of Retracements.After sticking to the rule of proportioning (using 45 degree angle on m1), and rule of observations (labeling past waves m0, m-1, and future waves m2, m3 properly relative to m1), now we want to measure the retracements of these waves. The author of this book suggests people should use rulers and protractors and all that other caveman stuff. Sometimes technology isn't such a bad thing is it? We can use the Fibonacci retracement tool to make short work of the retracement percentages. Then we can call something "rule 5, condition d" for example, based off these measurements. From there we go to a list of pre-established logical extensions and ..... that's as far as I got today. Next time, I can hazard a guess, I will be covering the logical extensions for each separate rule/condition pairing. Whatever the author thinks is important to cover is what I will be sharing here as well.
Education
by emehoke
Playing around with ElliotHere is my take on playing around with Elliot. My assumptions are: Institutional trades started to make moves towards the end or after the 2017 bear market and Covid a Black Swan and if it did not happen there wouldn't have been the big dip. So my 0 for Elliot is the bear market low. When calc. 1& 2 at the first reversal. March 2020 shows concern, but I wrote this off as a market collapse and not orchestrated-Black Swan. Then used Fib levels to verify the 3, and 4 retracement and confirm the 5. Looking at the peak a 5, I could then use that as a 0 and start again. All levels match up where we are in a weekly 4 and about to drop down even lower when the 4 is finished between my 2 orange levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by sethers_0908
8
Mastering Elliot waves intro. basic stuff.The big takeaway for me was that this is a very complex and all encompassing way of chopping up market patterns. There are a lot of people who don't think it's a good way of doing it, and there are a lot of people who really put a lot of time into it and mastered it, and in doing so, made it work for them. It's not an easy discipline to learn, and it can take years. yikes. Some portion of my attention span disbanded after reading that part. For the synapses that stuck around: Nothing wild was introduced, and we aren't doing any calculations. Simply acknowledging that there are forces of nature that we can't really completely understand, and market behavior is one of them. We can give it some general guidelines, however, and that's what elliot waves attempt to do. We are on the lookout for structural patterns that upon completion lead to directional movement. In order to get there, we start with waves. The simplest waveform is a monowave, which is just the point between pivots on a chart. It can be big or small or whatever. It is the smallest organization of chart-matter. Connecting monowaves makes polywaves. Poli -> Multi -> Macro. When saying a wave is a certain degree in relation to other waves is a method of self-organization that we basically have to do for no other reason than because our brains work that way. Omnipotence is not in the forecast for a couple zillion more years. Add it all together, and patterns that illustrate the confines of our thought processes begin to appear on the chart. The end goal is that these parts of our brain eventually callous to the point where we can see the patterns and respond to them rather than being caught up in them. For now, we are just happy if you understand that price movement is composed of waves, and that these waves are identified in relation to one another. (impulse, correction, degree). For the record I don't know who I'm referring to when I say 'we'.
COMEX:GCQ2021Education
by emehoke
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.2 - "Channeling"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.2, where we will be learning about channeling in Elliott Waves (also known as, parallel channels) - something that many of you are probably already doing in your daily technical analysis, but probably have not known that it could be used within the Elliott Wave theory. This method is going to give us an extra edge when it comes to pinpointing the end of certain waves in certain patterns, basically a way to predict the future in some ways by reducing some of the probabilities of unknown trajectory of waves. 📚 Chapter 4 Glossary: 4.1 Alternation 📖 4.2 Channeling 4.3 Psychology 4.4 Fib-Ratio 4.5 Motive Wave Multiples 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples ----- What is Channeling, or Parallel Channels? One of the major guidelines or rules within in the Elliot Wave theory is that two of the impulse waves (please refer to chapter 1) in a five-wave basic structure will tend to be equal. This is true in a normal five-wave basic structure or in a basic structure where we have one extended wave. In even more simpler terms, we almost always will have two impulse waves that will be similar in length. When we have the relationship between two waves inside the parallel structure, the ends of these waves can be calculated in points or percentages of extensions like the 127.2%, 161.8% (the golden fib zone! - more on the fibs in the next chapter). Most of the time these two waves will be equal in length, and if one wave was 100 points longer, then there is a very high probability that another wave will be 100 ticks long (also known as a measured move). And of course you already know that if the first wave is 90 points and the second wave is 100 points, there’s a high probability that the fifth wave will be an extended wave, and etc. Again, if you are lost, I highly recommend you go back to reading chapters 1 and 2. So since we have an arithmetic relationship (or equality) within the structure in terms of line connections, the upper and lower boundaries of the impulse waves can be marked by two major trendlines. EW Traders will often draw a temporary channel when enough data is given, and what we have here is actually a temporary channel in the chart above. This is not a fancy term - this merely means you are drawing the channel ahead of time since you have a rough idea of the 3rd wave already being drawn out. You then can visually predict by connecting two or three of the major points to create a channel to help you assume where the next possible wave will end by simple support. You can see that the next wave will be a down move and then we have to complete the 4th wave. We don’t know if we are in a five-wave basic structure just yet, but the channel will help us validate this idea. Furthermore, since the two waves inside of the structure tend to be equal and the longest wave here is the third wave, you can see that we can have a predicted fourth wave that will bounce at the channel support due to the 'temporary' channel support line we created as we can see in the chart, and the fifth wave will be equal in length of the wave 1, and will end up most likely at the channels resistance in the upper boundary. What makes a parallel channel invalidated? Well, that's easy - if price breaks the channel prematurely, and continues to fall, this will invalidate our count and the idea of channeling. If the fourth wave doesn’t end at a point touching the lower boundary of the support line channel, you must reconstruct it by connecting the ends of wave 2 and 4, to correctly estimate the end of wave 5. Then draw a parallel line for the upward boundary from the end of wave 3. Parallel channels help INCREASE your probability of wave counts, and also have a good direction of where simply support may be!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
14
How to make money with price actionSo you want to get into price action? Not fundamentals ey. But then one HAS to do all this backtesting, there is no dodging it. Can't go into "TA" to dodge the FA work, and then want to also dodge the stat work xd No magic trick here. Let's get started immediately. EURUSD 2020 covid trend (can't 100% dodge fundas, always good to know why we're going in a direction): EURUSD 2018-2019 "thing" (trade war uncertainty and erratic tweets): EURUSD 2017 trend: We are starting to see trends last 1-2 years in recent history, so not much point looking at a 5Y chart. It's also silly to be super zoomed in on some "intraday" or "swing trading" chart with no clue what is really going on. EURUSD 2015-2016 ranging 2 years: EURUSD 2014 violence some may remember: Day gamblers looking for "10 pips" that hold bags were happy to go through a 3500 pips loss. Still has not recovered. I can only imagine the incredible pain loss averse gamblers must have gone through. The pain not only never ends but it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse. Just no chance to breathe, only unbearable pain. Well that's interesting, why am I licking my lips? EURUSD in 2012-2013 does not look very fun: EURUSD 2011 downtrend Hey, starting to see some recurrent things here... EURUSD 2010 uptrend Backtesting tip: Doing it while playing a turn based game (alt tab between turns), or watching something that requires little attention, working out (between sets), "afk farm" games too... No one lasts with "motivation", we all have to find tricks. EURUSD 2010 downtrend And before that, we go to the 2000s era where FX was popular with hedge funds and trends lasted more than 1 year. 2008-2013 saw most FX funds disappear. Another tip: Maybe fundamentals can help predict when a trend will last, and avoid failing on this sad 3 impulses downtrend. It worked for the Yen a few years ago when the BOJ almost literally told traders "Hey if you short our currency we will give you money". And another tip: Eyeball backtesting. Have an idea? Want to know if it is worth digging in? Well don't just go full fanatical try hard! Do not spend hours and hours writing every detail in excel. Eyeball it with approximate numbers. Takes seconds. Then 2 choices appear: - Onto something ===> Go for the details - Nah it's nothing ===> Congratulation you did not waste tons of time on nothing (small time loss) Limiting losses, it's also valid with your time. How about I go look at the GBPUSD in the 80s ey? GBPUSD downtrend in 1980-1981 Aaaaaaaaaaand same story as usual ;) Repeat this 10 times, for a total of about 100 excel lines and ~25 trends. Then write some rules, and go backtest them on other charts. Because yes, the major currency pairs (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD, CNH, MXN, SEK) more or less work the same, but don't take my word for it. Choices appear. Does the aspiring money manager want to only go for 3 impulses? And then miss all the big winners? Does he want to sacrifice winrate for bigger reward to risk ratios? Does he want a higher winrate (noob). Sometimes there are 5 impulses, does he (or she) go for 5? Or consider it is worth it to give up some winners? Weak hands or strong hands once in a trending winner? Most people have weak hands with winners but doesn't mean one has to absolutely ALWAYS hold. Holding all the time and letting it retrace hard would probably be a mistake. The noob that took the time (really it would barely take a few days of honest work) could already get started. I said get started, I don't know if it would make money. Maybe? Clearly 2R is a beginner thing. What if you could get 38% winrate with 2R and 22% winrate with 4R! Clearly worth it, but as always the majority of people are loss averse and choose the bad choice, trading is just not for them. One has to some stats, have a good working memory for many reasons, be able handle numbers like "I3 - .6 - Fast - EURUSD" (2 variables 2 constants). If someone cannot quickly juggle with numbers this is the wrong job. The variance is important for example, if an average pullback is .5 but 45% are in the .25-.45 range, and 45% in the > .8 range, here there are 2 groups to separate. Obviously here we would want to only go for the .25-.45 range, get a 4 or 5 or even greater reward to risk, let losers chase high winrate with gigantic stops. If 30% of the time the price bottoms in a .2 range and extends 1 at least, here that's a 5 risk to reward on double the breakeven winrate. Then what happens to the 70% who cares? A few bottom further away, a few turn into a new opposite trend, a few go sideways, they all stink. All for illustrative purposes, but it's typically what happens. I don't really know. What about some ways to increase the winrate, tips, and for those that have a hard time sticking to rules, especially cutting losses and holding winners? Surely, Mr Renev that said motivation did not work knows some tricks to fix all of that. Find tricks... I know no tricks in fixing gross mediocrity, just follow the rules, non negotiable. It's really simple. Can't do it ==> Wrong job. Can mediocre make money? I don't know I do not deal with mediocre. Also we can try to zoom in, but ideally only after having mastered the timeframe presented in this article. This is what I do, I zoom in. Let's take my 2020 idea "The pound is a 500 years old ponzi going to zero" So here is the full chart (1 year): Go H4 on I3: Then we can even go to H1: The target is 450 "pips" which for GBPAUD is in the 1 week ATR range, but better than the average. In a recent "tips" idea I showed: - Day gamblers working on a 8 hour ATR realistically need a PF of 1.15 (very best scenario) - 1.25 just to breakeven! - Swing Gamblers on a 2D ATR need a PF of 1.05 on EURUSD to breakeven. - And I won't look at scalpers because they can't possibly be serious. I think they are actually trolls. With this weekly ATR a PF of 1.02-1.03 is the breakeven rate. I am not bleeding much money compared to going long term. Day gamblers miss out on so much, AND they need an exceptional profit factor, ok not that amazing either (for day gambling it is) JUST TO BREAKEVEN. All that wasted money, how does it not drive them nuts? They're just throwing away a 20% margin. I just want to pull my eyelids out. To make money with Forex, many questions will have to be answered, and for this only one way, as we say in France "Va falloir aller au charbon!" (literally "Have to go to the coal"), means it will take time and effort and actively getting things done. So many questions: What trends can be eliminated? What trends SHOULD be eliminated? What impulses to go for? What is the optimal WR & RR compromise area? Do I just go for ABC first? Where to exit? What are solid Support and Resistance? Do I go for uptrends starting from a multi year low only (to dodge ranges)? How many ATR are each wave? What does 2 extend to? What other questions could I ask? How do I get inspiration to find more questions? Do I exploit this strategy enough? Can I optimise it more or should I look for something else? Hey and each of these questions will direct to more questions. "When I have this, this, and this, where do I exit". Like "Where I'm in the presence of a creeper trend", "fast trend", "clean trend"... Each trend has its own set of questions, all the same I listed, plus a few specific ones. It is essential to approach the study of markets in general and charts more specifically in manageable chunks. All while following economic news and checking on charts regularly. A day that makes sense could be one with 4 hours of backtesting, 4 hours of analysing charts, 4 hours of "fun" watching videos and reading and writing (all about investing), and 4 hours of time to eat and do unrelated stuff. All of this for 1 simple strategy. Answering these questions is a task to accomplish over years.
Education
by MrRenev
EDUCATION - Rising & Falling Wedges - Reversal PatternsWhat is an ascending/descending correction? The most common reversal pattern is the rising and falling wedge, which typically occurs at the end of a trend. The pattern consists of two trendiness which contract price leading to an apex and then a breakout appears. Rising Wedge – Bearish Reversal The ascending reversal pattern is the rising wedge which consists of higher highs and higher lows whilst losing momentum to the upside. Price contracts and eventually has a bearish break. Falling Wedge – Bullish Reversal The falling wedge reversal pattern occurs at the end bear run and indicates that price is ready to reverse. Again, price contracts and then eventually breaks out upwards. There are 2 types of ways we can trade wedge patterns; Risky Entry & Safe Entry. See below for the pros and cons for both and how to enter them __________________________________________________________________ Risk Entry: The reason why it is called a risk entry is because we haven't got many confirmations apart from the third touch of the trendline (as indicated in the chart above). Price may have the potential to go past the trendline for a deeper correction before moving up hence why this is called a risk entry. Whereas for the safe entry, the confirmation would be the break of the wedge. How to trade using Risk Entry: Wait for price to bounce off the trendline and then enter with stops below/above the correction depending on whether it’s a rising wedge or falling wedge. One of the advantages of doing a risk entry is that we can have small stop loss and have a great risk:reward ratio. Also, we can gain an entry at the start of the move and have massive gains! Safe Entry: Safe entry requires more than one confluence and requires confirmation. One of the confirmations of the safe entry is the third touch bounce and then another confirmation is when price breaks the correction which confirms that the structure has changed and that we are in a reversal. How to trade using Safe Entry: For a safe entry, enter when price has broken the correction with stops above/below the correction. Please note that with this entry method, the stoploss will be greater. The disadvantage to using a safe entry is that we require a bigger stop loss which makes the risk:reward ratio not as great as the risk entry. However, the probability of the trade succeeding is higher. RISING WEDGE EXAMPLES RISK ENTRY SAFE ENTRY FALLING WEDGE EXAMPLES RISK ENTRY SAFE ENTRY
Education
by Altsignals
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