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9 Essential TIPS For Newbie Traders (Learn from my Mistakes!) In the today's article, I will reveal trading secrets I wish I knew when I started trading. 1️⃣ Forget about becoming a pro quickly Most of the traders believe, that you can learn how to trade easily and that it takes a very short period of time in order to master a profitable trading strategy. The truth is, however, that trading is a long journey. I spent more than 3 years, trying different strategies and looking for a profitable technique to trade. Once I found that, it took more than a year to polish a trading strategy and to learn how to apply that properly. Be prepared to spend YEARS before you find a way to trade profitably. 2️⃣ Focus on One Strategy While you are learning how to trade you will try different techniques, tools and strategies. And the thing is that newbies are trying multiple things simultaneously. The more strategies you try at once, the more setups you have on your chart. The more setups you have on your chart, the more complex and difficult is your trading. Remember that in this game, your attention is the key. You should meticulously study each and every trading setup. For that reason, I highly recommend you to focus on one strategy, one approach, one technique. Test it, try it and look for a new one only when you realize that it doesn't work. Here is the example how the same price chart can provide absolutely different trading opportunities depending on a trading strategy. Price action pattern trader would recognize a lot of a patterns, while indicator based trader could spot absolutely different bullish and bearish signals. Now, try to imagine how hard it would be to follow both strategies simultaneously. 3️⃣ Start with small capital that you can afford to lose You will lose your first trading deposit and, probably, the second one and potentially the third one as well. Losses are the only way to learn real trading. While you are on a demo account, you feel like a king, but once you start risking your savings, the perspective completely changes. For that reason, make sure that you trade with an account that you can afford to lose. The fact of blowing such an account should be unpleasant, but that should not affect your daily life. 4️⃣ Use stop loss I am doing trading coaching for more than 4 years. What pisses me off is that the main reason of the substantial losses of my mentees is the absence of stop loss. Why can it be if naturally everyone: from your broker to Instagram trading gurus repeat that day after day. Set stop loss, know in advance how much you risk per trade, and know the exact level on a price chart where you become wrong. Imagine what could be your loss, if you shorted USDJPY and hold the trade while the market kept going against you. 5️⃣ Forget about getting rich quick That is the iconic fallacy. I believe that around 90% of people who come in this game want to get rich quick, want easy money. And no surprise, when I share a trading setup on TradingView, and it loses I receive dozens of messages that I am a scammer. People truly believe that professional trading implies 100% win rate and quick and easy money. The truth is, traders, that trading is a very tough game. And with a good trading strategy, you have just a little statistical edge that will give you the profits that would slightly overcome your losses. 6️⃣ Train your eyes Professional trading implies pattern recognition: it can be some technical indicators pattern, the price action or candlestick formation, etc. Your main goal as a trader is to learn to identify these patterns. Pattern recognition is a hard skill to acquire. You should spend dozens of hours in front of the screen in order to train your eyes to identify certain patterns. Here is how many patterns you would spot on GBPUSD chart, paying close attention. 7️⃣ Track and analyze your trades Study all the trades that you take, especially the losing ones. Look for mistakes, look for the reasons why a certain setup played out and why a certain one didn't. Journal your trades and make notes. 8️⃣ Don't use technical indicators Newbies believe that technical indicators should do the work for them. They are constantly looking for one or a bunch that will accurately show where the market will go. However, I always say to my mentees that technical indicators make the chart messy and distract. If you just started trading, focus on a naked chart, learn to analyze the market trend, key levels, classic price action patterns. Learn to make accurate predictions relying on a price chart alone. Only then add some technical indicators on your chart. They won't do the work for you, but will help you to slightly increase the accuracy of a certain setup. Above is the classic chart of newbie trader. A lot of indicators and a complete mess The same chart would look much better without technical indicators. 9️⃣ Find a Mentor There are hundreds of trading mentors. Find the one with a trading style that you like. Follow him, learn from his trading experience, listen to his trading recommendations. 9 years ago I found a guy, his name was Jason. I really liked his free teachings, and they were meaningful to me. I decided to purchase his premium coaching program. It was 200$ monthly - a huge amount of money for me at that time. However, with his knowledge I saved a lot, I learned a lot of profitable techniques and tricks that helped me to become a professional forex trader. Of course, this list could be much bigger. The more I think about different subjects in trading, the more important tips come to my mind. However, I believe that the tips above are essential and I truly wish I knew all that before I started. I hope that info will help you in your trading journey! Good luck to you. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
SASKEN: Favorable Technical Indicators Point Towards a PotentialIn recent developments, SASKEN is showing promising signs as it approaches a crucial resistance trendline. Notably, the stock has received support from a reliable support trendline, accompanied by healthy trading volumes. Additionally, there has been a positive crossover observed in the MACD indicator, further strengthening the bullish sentiment. An encouraging factor is that SASKEN is currently trading above its 50-day moving average (DMA), indicating upward momentum. Moreover, the stock has been consistently finding support from this moving average, adding to its bullish prospects. Given these factors, I am inclined to recommend a BUY position with a stop-loss (SL) set at the 50DMA level. #SASKEN #StockAnalysis #TechnicalIndicators #BreakoutPotential #BullishSentiment #MACD #MovingAverages #TradingInsights
NSE:SASKENEducation
by LiveTradingBox
High & Low Resistance LiquidityLOW RESISTANCCE LQ 1.No liqidation Available SSLQ generated at weak low = low resistance lQ 2. Price is more likely to pullback to the nearest POI 3. high resistance LQ left at new strong high 4. price will move impulsively past low resistance lows to target available SSLQ HIGH RESISTANCCE LQ 1. Strong liquidation Signals potential institutional backing Leaves high resistance LQ 2. Often price will then pull back much deeper (or potentially reverse) 3. The end of the pullback often forms through a liquidation, leaving high resistance LQ at what then becomes the new strong / protected high 4. Price meets some resistance at the sweep zone to the left rather than smashing straight through the weak lows when there's low resistance LQ
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by quangcttn
1
Trading logic in multiple time frames of the SMC methodAfter the price breaks through the Swinghigh of the large time frame to create a BOS signal We look for sell down or buy up signals according to the following structure: Swing high(Weak) H4 => 1/5M pullback => break Swinglow 1/5M => 15M pullback => break Swinglow 15M => Pullback 4H => Order block 4H=> Pullback 1/5M => break Swinghigh 1/5M => Pullback 15M => break Swing 15M = > Pullback 4H => break Swinghigh 4H => Create new Swing High (Weak) and Swing Low (Strong)
CAPITALCOM:DXYEducation
by quangcttn
The EWT Explanation as to why I'm BullishThe elliot waves i have explained on the chart, with fib extenion levels of .127, 1.36, 1.50, 1.62, 1.78, with 1.5 being the mean. there are numbers up to 2.44 and higher... As i have explained before at any instant there is a 50/50% chance of going up or down, all other indicators i have seen, except Squeeze pro, and EWT 80% chance of success. So be ready for a download too, 20% hance think like Sun Tsu we are on deadly ground using out level 3 platforms, the Brokers probably have level 7 screens by now it used to be level 5 screens. If Paper wants to rip a hole in our little bullish world of chop and begin the MAXIMUM PROFITS downslide downtrend we all dream of finally being short As hell andmaking huge profits shorting all day long from R5 down to S6 or S7 I have been trying to teach everyone how to spot EW 4 and stay in a trade w/o paying hundreds of dollars a day in commissions, after wave 4 you get a rocket ship on steriods, impuslive, complex and in the TREND UP.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by dryanhawley
Learn FAKEOUT, BREAKOUT, RETEST | Trading Basics Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss 3 very important market situations that every trader must be able to recognize: breakout, retest, and fakeout. ❗️ Please, note that the essential element of all these terms is structure: vertical and horizontal key levels. 📍 Breakout is a situation when the market breaks the identified horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line. Breakout is a very important event that signifies the willingness of buyers/sellers to violate the structures. Violation of support signifies a strong selling pressure, while a violation of resistance signifies a high buying momentum. Usually, the structure breakout is confirmed with a candle close. For confirmation of a breakout of support, a candle close below that is needed. For confirmation of a breakout of resistance, a candle close above is required. Take a look at a bearish breakout of a key support on Gold. After the breakout, the broken support turned into a resistance and was respected multiple times. It was broken by the buyers then and turned into a support again. 📍 Retest is the situation when the price returns to broken horizontal support or resistance, or a vertical trend line after a confirmed breakout. For a structure breakout, high trading volumes are needed. Usually, after a breakout, the market participants are locally exhausted and a correctional movement follows. That may lead to a retest of a broken structure. Most of the time, after a retest, a strong impulse follows. For that reason, for many traders, the retest is applied for trading entries. Here is how nicely the price violated a key support on Gold. After a violation, the market became oversold and the price retested the broken structure. 📍 Fakeout or false breakout is the situation when the price has not enough strength to maintain its direction after a retest of a broken structure. Instead, the market returns below/above the broken resistance/support. Above, is the example of a false breakout on EURUSD. Fakeout is one of the main reasons why structure traders lose money. One of the ways to avoid fakeout is to monitor trading volumes during a structure breakout. A volume spike is needed to confirm the strength of the market participants, while low volumes most of the time signify a manipulation. Learn to spot breakouts and false ones, and try to trade on a retest. Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
The overall shape is curved like a arcA Trader looks at both sides and does not have an opinion on are we going bear or bull today, up or down. We could go up 100 points now to match the actual ATH, or we could continue rolling over in thi arm, spending more time in the S3 area, more selling than before, we will see what unfolds. Nobody knows the probazbly future in advance if they can't read elliot waver charts. This rally on the right could actually be a 4th wave counter trend complex 5 waves, that would be ideal to fall back into the new trend down or like i said go up 100 points to math /ATH? like a goal
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by dryanhawley
SP500 Entanglement of Price Action IIThe price touched the line with specific angle that covers ATH and (current) Lower High. I consider it as a point of reference because current observable price can be explained with that vector. The line separates 2 outcomes: Continuation of the uptrend Rejection Significant reversals that caused the structure to look the way it looks are: "ATH" 4 JAN'22 13 OCT'22 Lowest (> 2 years) 27 JUL'23 Lower High Those dates initiated longer term movements, hence defining the entanglement. The angle of general direction can be defined by the Fibonacci Channels of macro-fractal which emerged from Covid Low: It kinda exposes their domestic "spin to the side". Another example: Since the angle of -27.47% drop (ATH and Lowest >2yrs) are more perpendicular to the direction of time scale, the derived fibonacci would define periods of waves. Matches angle of -10.93% drop from 27 JUL'23 to 0.382 fib of the domestic structure. But, since after such drop, it didn't fall further but in reverse grew back, it must be defined with upward direction vector, the fibs of which would cover that low with cold colors. The fact of growing at higher levels after just 10% drop, deserve to get filtered with upward fibs. In respect to 31% growth the current price resides at 0.618. Further interconnectedness of points: 1.236 fib confirms that price is indeed at crossroad and in case of violating it, the price would set its tendency to move to next (1.382) fib line and reverse there under heavier pressure. Currently price is still under pressure because the market has grown to levels of domestic resistance. The curve shows mathematical function that mimics highs before reversing. Hence, it can be used to refer deviation where the price can end up after escaping ATH-LH-Current_Price vector. Otherwise, with failing to breakout now, it might go for correction in short-term perspective as soon as players notice that market is at already saturated levels.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by fract
10 POWERFUL INVESTING & TRADING QUOTES OF ALL TIME Here are powerful quotes of professional traders, investors and experts in financial markets. Let their words inspire you and help you in your trading journey. "To succeed in the market, you must learn to think like everyone else and do the opposite." - Sir John Templeton 📈💭💡 "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton ⏳📉🛑 "The more you learn, the more you earn." - Warren Buffett 📚💰📈 "The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money." - Victor Sperandeo. 💪💰🚫🧠 "Investing is not about making predictions, it's about having a plan and sticking to it." - Tony Robbins 📊🔄📌 "The best time to buy a stock is when the blood is running in the streets." - Baron Rothschild 💀🔪💰 "The best investment you can make is in yourself." - Warren Buffett 💼💡💰 "The stock market is not a casino; it's a crooked casino." - Charlie Munger 🎰🎲🏛️ "Losses are part of the game. You can't win every trade." - Martin Schwartz . 📉😔💔 "The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future." - Peter Bernstein . ⚖️❓🔮 The More I trade, the more I realize how precise and meaningful are these phrases. Take them seriously, and they will help you achieve the financial success. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
3
Parallel Universe: Expert's Guide to the Art of Losing MoneyDisclaimer: Warning! The given tips are born from the minds of financial disasters and for entertainment purposes only. These are the results of the imagination of unsuccessful traders with a knack for making impressive losses. These master traders are known to make their financial mistakes by making huge losses. Unsuccessful traders are honored members of FRBF - Financial Ruins of Big Fortune with lifetime achievement of negative portfolios and returns. We do not recommend following the suggestions from the unsuccessful traders otherwise we have to add you to FRBF club. Well, well, if it isn't the tired soul tired of seeing green numbers in their trading account. Can you believe it? I always have seen a dream of world's biggest loser trader. Apparently, 99% of traders out there are making money, and we're stuck in the miserable 1% who might be losing. But hey, if you're sick and tired of making money, you've stumbled upon the perfect spot. Get ready for a wild ride as I unveil the secrets to drain your hard-earned cash and proudly join the prestigious FRBF - the Financial Ruins of Big Fortune. Buckle up, my friend! 1) Borrowing Money: You should borrow money from every possible resource. Remember that Saving money and working hard for financial stability is just for cowardly people. Debt is the only key to get success in the trading world. If you have bad luck, you can get your creditors good luck by borrowing their money. Imagine when your creditor will knock on your door, and you will be running and hiding from them! How thrilling is this! It's a surefire way to reach new heights of financial ruin. 2) Avoid Using Stop-loss: We should totally ignore those stop-loss orders. There's this fascinating study that suggests traders who actually use stop-loss orders tend to have lower losses compared to those who don't. who needs that kind of useful information? Not us! We're not beginners here, are we? If you use stop-loss, it will exit the trade when market sentiments are changed. You will never be able to make huge losses. Let's just toss those stop-loss orders right out the window and dive headfirst into the exhilarating world of uncertainty. Because what's more exciting than watching our trades go haywire with no safety net? So let's embrace the thrill, ignore risk management, and revel in the rollercoaster ride of potential financial ruin. 3) Hold Losing Positions & Never cut losses: Who needs to admit defeat when we can simply cling to hope and pray that the market will miraculously turn in our favor? It's such a fantastic strategy to hold onto those sinking ships, watching our losses pile up like trophies of our unwavering determination. Cutting our losing positions? Pfft, that's for amateurs who actually care about preserving their capital and minimizing losses. We, on the other hand, choose to ride the wave of delusion and hold onto our sinking investments with unwavering faith. After all, why learn from mistakes when we can repeat them endlessly? So let's keep clutching those losing positions tightly, and maybe, just maybe, the market will eventually bend to our will. 4) Avoid Managing Risk: Risk management will not let you become an unsuccessful trader. Forget about preserving your capital and protecting yourself from substantial losses. Let's just dive headfirst into the deep end and throw caution to the wind! So, according to your brilliant logic, let's ignore risk management and trade in five stocks with a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. We'll lose $3 in three stocks and $6 in the remaining two trades. Brilliant strategy, right? Who needs profits when we can lose money consistently? 5) Never Pay Attention to News & Events: Who needs to stay informed about current events and news when it comes to trading? Ignorance is truly bliss, especially when it comes to making informed decisions and understanding market dynamics. Let's just close our eyes and ears to all those pesky news articles, economic reports, and major events that could potentially impact the market. Who needs to know about interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or corporate earnings releases? They're just distractions, right? Instead, let's rely on our sheer intuition and gut feelings to guide our trading decisions. (6) Overtrade Consistently: Overtrading is the key to financial prosperity in the trading world. Forget about patience, strategy, and carefully planned execution. Instead, let's indulge in a frenzy of excessive trading and drown ourselves in a sea of transactions. Who needs quality over quantity when it comes to trades? Let's throw caution to the wind and execute as many trades as possible, disregarding any semblance of rational decision-making. Because, clearly, more trades automatically translate into more profits, right? Why bother with analyzing market trends, studying charts, or conducting thorough research when we can just click that "Buy" or "Sell" button incessantly? After all, trading is just a game of chance, and blind luck is definitely on our side. 7) Never Use Technical Analysis: Technical analysis? Nah, it's all smoke and mirrors, right? Who needs those fancy charts, indicators, and patterns to make smart trading decisions? I mean, who has time for that? Sure, by using technical analysis, you could potentially have a better sense of when to enter or exit trades and where to set stop-loss levels. You might even be able to forecast market movements using theories like Elliott wave, price action, chart pattern analysis, or volume analysis. But who needs all that when you can just wing it and tap the buy and sell buttons without any plan or analysis? Who needs strategies or insights anyway? Forget about those losers who waste their time studying charts and analyzing market trends. Real traders, the ones who consistently lose money, don't bother with technical analysis or any other form of analysis for that matter. They rely solely on their gut feelings and blind luck. That's the way to go! 8) Emotional Trading: emotional trading Is a brilliant strategy! Who needs logical decision-making when you can base all your trades on impulsive emotions? Forget about analyzing charts, patterns, or market trends. Just let your feelings guide you like a compass in a hurricane. Why bother with calm and rational thinking when you can succumb to the rollercoaster ride of fear, greed, and impulsiveness? It's truly a magnificent way to sabotage your trading success and ensure that your portfolio becomes an emotional wreck. So go ahead, throw logic out the window, and embrace the chaos of emotional trading. Because nothing says financial stability like making impulsive decisions based on fleeting emotions! Good luck on your wild emotional trading adventure! 9) Always Trust Unregulated Brokers: Unregulated brokers are the epitome of trustworthiness and reliability. Who needs regulatory oversight and investor protection when it comes to handling our hard-earned money? Why bother with ensuring the safety of our funds or verifying the legitimacy of a broker? It's so much more exciting to entrust our financial well-being to anonymous individuals operating in the shadows. Who needs transparency, accountability, or adherence to industry standards? Unregulated brokers provide the perfect opportunity to navigate the treacherous waters of the financial world without any safety nets. It's like playing a high-stakes game of roulette with our life savings! 10) Always trade on others' advice Trading on others' advice is the secret recipe for success in the trading world. Who needs to develop their own knowledge, skills, and expertise when we can rely solely on the wisdom of others? Let's throw out our own analysis, research, and intuition, and blindly follow the advice of random strangers on the internet or that "hot tip" from a friend's cousin's neighbor's dog. After all, they must be financial geniuses with impeccable track records, right? Who needs to understand the underlying fundamentals or technical aspects of a trade when we can just mimic the actions of others without question? It's so liberating to surrender our autonomy and decision-making abilities to the masses. It's a foolproof strategy that guarantees confusion, frustration, and, of course, financial ruin. 11) Never Ever Take Profit It's such an intelligent strategy to watch our gains evaporate right before our eyes. Why bother with securing our profits and protecting our capital when we can hold on to winning positions indefinitely? It's so much more thrilling to experience the roller coaster ride of market fluctuations and see our unrealized gains dwindle away. Let's ignore those pesky market indicators, trailing stops, and profit targets. After all, who needs a concrete plan when we can simply rely on greed and the hope that our winning trades will magically keep going up forever? And let's not forget the joy of regret when a once-profitable trade eventually turns into a massive loss. Who needs financial stability and consistent growth when we can embrace the unpredictable nature of the market and bask in the glory of missed opportunities? 12) Learning From Mistakes Learning from our mistakes and evolving as a trader is overrated. Who needs personal growth and improvement when we can stay firmly planted in our cycle of financial self-destruction? Let's ignore those pesky lessons that losses teach us. Why bother reflecting on our trading errors, analyzing our strategies, or seeking ways to improve? It's so much more exciting to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, expecting different results each time. Who needs progress and development when we can remain comfortably stagnant in our trading endeavors? Let's embrace the thrill of consistent failure and pretend that we're on the cusp of a breakthrough while repeating the same ineffective tactics. And why stop repeating mistakes? Let's add a touch of delusion and convince ourselves that this time, things will magically turn around. Because, clearly, doing the same thing repeatedly without learning from it is the secret to unbounded success. 13) Fall for "Get-Rich-Quick Schemes" "Get-rich-quick schemes" are the epitome of financial wisdom and stability. Who needs a long-term, sustainable approach to wealth when we can chase after elusive shortcuts to instant riches? Why bother with hard work, patience, and diligence when we can throw caution to the wind and blindly trust those promising overnight success? Let's believe in the magic of "secret formulas," "guaranteed profits," and "hidden strategies" that are conveniently packaged in flashy marketing campaigns. Let's not forget the joy of handing over our hard-earned money to these self-proclaimed experts, who undoubtedly have our best interests at heart. After all, it's not like they're preying on our gullibility and desperation for a quick financial fix, right? 14) Trade Based on Rumors Baseless rumors and gossip are the most reliable sources of information for successful trading. Who needs verified facts, data, or market analysis when we can simply rely on hearsay and unfounded speculation? Why bother with conducting thorough research or verifying the authenticity of information? Let's just blindly believe every rumor that comes our way and make trading decisions based on pure gossip. It's so much more thrilling to embrace uncertainty and place our trust in unverified whispers. Who needs to understand the impact of real market drivers or economic indicators when we can make impulsive decisions based on the latest unfounded chatter? It's like playing a game of financial Russian roulette with our hard-earned money. To be continued... :D Idea by @Money_Dictators on @TradingView Platform
SKILLING:US30Education
by Money_Dictators
8
Part 2: Price Action Breakdown - Advance ElementsIn the first part, we discussed the components of the price action theory. We covered value area, control line, and excess price with examples, setups & guidelines (with my own observations.) Now, in this idea, we are going to cover the following topics: No trading zone Initiative & responsive trading Shifting of the value area Bullish Value area Bearish value area Extention of the value area Combining all the pieces I request all of you to visit our first part if you have not read it yet. Check out the following demo chart, and try to mention each component by yourself: Now, you can check the following chart, and see if you have denoted correctly or noted: 1) No trading zone: No trading zone/activities is the area where trading is not happening. It shows the strength of buyers in the lower band and the strength of the sellers in the upper boundary. Its shows who is controlling, who will be controlling, and who have lost the opportunity. What does it mean? 🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the lower band, it shows that buyers are controlling the movement and sellers are not able to form trading activities. 🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the upper band, it shows that sellers are controlling the movement and buyers are not able to form trading activities. Observing the given formation that shows a sideways value area is enough to understand the whole story. There were actually three no-trading zones in the value area: two on the lower band and one on the upper band. The first NTZ(No-trading zone) on the lower band was the signal of the movement controlled by buyers. NTZ-2 was the widest of the value area, where sellers snatched the control from buyers and started outnumbering the buyers. NTZ-3 was the last no-trading zone where the buyers were on the controlled buy and couldn't give a response to the sellers' initiative move. The excess was the last price point from sellers that started the supply pressure. 2) Initiative & responsive trading As we discussed earlier, price movements are the result of the interaction between supply and demand. Buyer(demand) and seller's(supply) intuition are the main components of the price. Value area from where buyers and sellers are satisfied with the current prices. Neither buyers want to increase, nor the seller is interested in low prices at least for some duration. It's called equilibrium between buyers and sellers. What if it's enough? # Now buyers don't want to keep the prices as it's too low for them. So, the buyers will make an initiative to break the upper band of the value area. It is called "initiative" by buyers. # Sellers have to stop them from going out of the value area by making excess, which is called "response" by sellers. Anyone, either buyers or sellers, who are not satisfied can make an initiative. However, the opposite party has to respond to their initiative and settle into equilibrium again. Case 1: - The movement can only reach equilibrium by responding to each initiative. If a failure occurs, it signals evidence of a big move in the direction of the initiative. As per the chart, whenever buyers have made an initiative to move outside of the value area, sellers have responded with supply pressure and vice versa. Case 2: - Buyers have made an initiative, but sellers couldn't hold back the buyers' pressure and ended up losing movement. Here, we can say that the buyers have given a breakout of the value area, and the sellers' response was a failure. 3) Shifting of the value area - Traders don't have to be upset after the breakout of the value area. Supply and demand will balance and unbalance again, and traders will get an opportunity to trade according to the theory. We all know of the tenet of the dow theory that "price tends to trend ." Value area also shifts its value after the breakout/breakdown, often in the direction of the trend. Uptrend: The price was in an uptrend. After the breakout of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on. Downtrend: The price was in a downtrend. After the breakdown of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Money_Dictators
9
Part 1 - A Beginner's Guide to Breakdown TheoryThe Concept Of Supply & Demand The price movement of the security is the result of demand(buyers) & supply(sellers): If the supply is more than the demand, there are more sellers than buyers than sellers, which results in a price fall. If the demand is more than the supply, there are more buyers than sellers, which results in a price surge. If the demand equals supply, price consolidates in the range. Demands = supply This is an equilibrium area in which demand and supply are equal. The price forms the value area, where both buyers and sellers are equally satisfied with the current price movement. Neither buyer is looking for a price surge nor the bear is waiting for the plunge, at least for some time. The supply and demand are a deadlock or clueless about the upcoming dominance. Let's take an example to understand these supply and demand conditions: - The provided chart of TESLA shows a real-time example of the supply and demand effect on the price. In the beginning, Demand pressure was more than Supply pressure, and The stock started rising as buyers outnumbered sellers. As the stock price rose, some buyers started losing interest in purchasing more shares due to the high price. Eventually, the demand and supply pressures reached equilibrium. - At this point, both buyers and sellers were satisfied with the price movement, as the demand matched the available supply. At high prices, sellers began to take advantage of the situation by selling their stock, leading to a decrease in price. The supply of stock exceeded the demand, and buyers were unable to respond with further bullish moves. Elements Of The Breakdown Theory: (1) Value Area: As the name implies, the value area is the price zone where most trading activities happen. In the value area, buyers and sellers are satisfied and agree with the current price movement. Purchasers are Neither interested in the further price surge nor do sellers agree to a decline in the price during the equilibrium period. Value area includes two boundaries: Upper boundary: It represents the supply pressure, which stops the security of the price rise. If the stock crosses down the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bearish move. The price signals a weak structure if it fails to trade above the upper band for a long time. This structure is a bearish move. Lower boundary: It illustrates the demand pressure, which stops the security of the price fall. If the stock crosses up the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bullish move. The price signals a strong structure if it fails to trade above the lower band for a long time. This structure is a bullish move. (2) Excess: The excess price can be identified above the upper band and below the lower band. It shows a clear rejection of a certain price level and it reacts as support and resistance levels. It indicates the intuition of long-term traders. The price spends minimal time outside the value area. It tends to reverse its direction and move back inside. It can create an opportunity for traders to sell above and buy below the value area. For example, the price falls below the lower band but then reverses the movement. Traders can take advantage of this by buying the security with a tight stop loss, aiming for targets up to the upper band or potentially higher. - The provided chart depicts the daily timeframe of SHREECEM stock from May 1999 to July 2001 . During this period, SHREECEM experienced four excess at the upper boundary and three at the lower boundary of the value area. At 3rd excess of the lower boundary, buyers couldn't respond by a strong bullish move, and sellers rule the movement by supply pressure. How to draw value area/ Equilibrium? Step 1 : Obtain a price chart of the tradable instruments(stock, commodity or forex, etc.) with a suitable time frame. As per my observation, daily and, or lower is better. Step 2 : Look for an area on the price chart where the price is moving within a specific range. Step 3 : Mark the trading area with the highest trading activity with good volume, which will be marked as a value area. Step 4 : Mark the area with relatively low trading activities where the price couldn't stay for too long at a certain level, which will be marked as excess. Step 5: Clearly separate the value area from the excess price areas to visually distinguish between the two. Step 6 : Observe the repetitive up and down movements within the value area. Step 7 : Extend value - boundaries rightward on the chart. Observe how price reacts near boundaries for future insights. Example 1: - AAPL has formed five price excesses, two above the upper and two below the lower boundary. After selecting the chart, I separated the excess from the price zone. - Generally, We need to find a price range where most prices touch the upper and lower boundaries. Any prices above the upper boundary or below the lower boundary are considered excess. Example 2: - In another Apple chart, the price has formed three excesses. The first excess happened when bulls couldn't overcome the volume of sellers and ended up losing momentum. The second excess occurred when sellers were unable to break below the lower band and lost their strength. At the third excess, AAPL couldn't generate bullish volume, and sellers dominated the selling. Finally, the price fell to the lower boundary, and bulls responded with a massive volume. Demand exceeded supply, and sellers were outnumbered. Example 3: - In the hourly timeframe chart of AMZN, the stock was experiencing a downward trend and entered a consolidation phase. Two excesses were observed, one at the upper boundary and the other at the lower boundary. - At the second excess, bulls responded with a sharp decline, but they were unable to maintain their momentum above the upper band. This lack of sustainability in their upward move increased the confidence of sellers, leading them to drive the price down for a longer duration. Sellers increased the supply and pushed the price of AMZN down with a gap and strong volume. Example 4: - It is the EURUSD 4-hour timeframe chart. EURUSD has more than nine price excesses, with five above the upper boundary and four below the lower boundary. The 5th excess marked the most significant response from buyers, countered by sellers. Subsequently, the length of the excesses decreased. - At the 9th excess, the buyers' initiative to push the price above the upper boundary couldn't be sustained, as the sellers' trading volume exceeded that of the buyers. In the next part, we will delve into the other components in more detail. Creating an article that caters to both beginners and experts can be quite challenging and time-consuming. However, if you would like the next part to be available sooner, please show your support by hitting the like button. Your encouragement will motivate me to continue writing and sharing valuable insights. Thank you for taking the time to read!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Money_Dictators
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