Steps to a Winning Trade Set up | Master Pattern & Indicators 🔑 Your Signature Trade Setup: “Trap-to-Target Confluence”
🔹 Step 1: Identify the Master Pattern
Look for consolidation → manipulation → expansion phases
Confirm price inside a range building up to a breakout
🔹 Step 2: Mark Magnetic Liquidity Zones
Use prior highs/lows, imbalance zones, and volume voids
Highlight areas where price must return to “rebalance”
🔹 Step 3: Indicator Confirmation
Tool Look For Signal Strength
Williams %R -80 to -100 (Oversold trap) or -20 to 0 (Overbought trap) 🔥 Reversal Zone
RSI Bullish/bearish divergence @ liquidity 🧠 Smart Money Trap
Volume Sudden spike near manipulation or retest 💣 Institutional Footprint
🔹 Step 4: Execute Entry
Aggressive: After trap candle closes + divergence confirmed
Conservative: Retest of range/imbalance + confluence
🔹 Risk Management
SL: Just beyond liquidity wick or structural level
TP1: Midpoint of range / imbalance close
TP2: Final opposing liquidity or structure break
Community ideas
Tron (TRX): Buyers Are Getting Ready For Breakout | +40% ComingTron coin is seeing a decent volume of buys recently, and we are still expecting to see a volatile breakout, which would give us an opening and potential of 40% movement from here, so we wait for BREAK OF STRUCTURE.
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Team
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-29 : Harami Inside patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will stall within yesterday's body range and possibly trend a bit downward (after NVDA news/earnings).
I don't see the markets really extending much higher today as we are moving into a sideways Harami pattern, then into a CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are really making a big move higher this morning, which suggests traders are back to actively hedging against risk across the globe.
BTCUSD is trading flat/sideways - looking for some direction and, obviously, NOT RALLYING right now.
In my mind, the markets are struggling for direction, and Gold/Silver are showing that real risks are still elevated.
I also highlight my new Pure Alpha TTScanner algo and the work I'm doing to try to help more traders. The best part about what I do is that I get to create solutions/tools for traders. I love it.
Get some.
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Silver Intra-Day Analysis 29-May-2025Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
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GBPUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD Gold Price, 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, and DXY Correlation
1. Gold vs. 10-Year Bond Yields
Inverse Relationship: Gold prices and bond yields (nominal) typically move inversely. Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, while lower yields boost demand for gold.
Real Interest Rates: The real yield (nominal yield minus inflation) is the key driver. When real yields fall (e.g., due to high inflation), gold prices rise, even if nominal yields increase. For example, gold surged during the 1970s despite rising nominal yields because inflation outpaced rates.
Current Example: A 10-year Treasury yield of 4.54% (nominal) with high inflation could still support gold if real yields remain negative or low.
2. Gold vs. Interest Rates
Inverse Correlation: Rising interest rates (e.g., Fed hikes) strengthen the dollar and increase bond yields, pressuring gold prices. Falling rates weaken the dollar and reduce yields, boosting gold.
Opportunity Cost: Gold doesn’t pay interest, so higher rates make yield-bearing assets (bonds, savings) more attractive
Recent Context: Markets pricing in Fed rate cuts in 2025 have supported gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
3. Gold vs. DXY (Dollar Index)
Inverse Relationship: A stronger dollar (DXY↑) makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts gold’s affordability and appeal.
Exceptions: During crises, both gold and the dollar may rise as safe havens (e.g., 2008 financial crisis).
4. 10-Year Yields vs. DXY
Positive Correlation: Higher yields often strengthen the dollar (DXY↑) by attracting foreign capital into USD-denominated bonds.
Divergence Risk: If yields rise due to fiscal concerns (e.g., US debt) rather than growth, the dollar may weaken despite higher yields.
Summary Table
Relationship Typical Correlation Key Driver(s)
Gold ⇄ 10-Year Yields Inverse Real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation)
Gold ⇄ Interest Rates Inverse Opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
Gold ⇄ DXY Inverse USD strength impacting gold’s global demand
DXY ⇄ 10-Year Yields Positive Yield-seeking capital flows into USD assets
Key Scenarios
Rising Yields + Strong Dollar:
Gold faces dual headwinds (e.g., Fed tightening cycles).
Falling Yields + Weak Dollar:
Gold rallies (e.g., post-2008 QE, 2020 pandemic).
Stagflation (High Inflation + Low Growth):
Gold rises despite higher nominal yields (real yields turn negative).
Conclusion
The interplay between gold, bond yields, interest rates, and the dollar is dynamic:
Gold’s primary driver is real interest rates, not nominal yields.
A weaker dollar (DXY↓) and falling real yields create ideal conditions for gold rallies.
While correlations are strong historically, exceptions occur during crises or stagflation.
Trade Implications:
Monitor real yields (10-year TIPS) and DXY trends for gold price direction.
Fed policy shifts, inflation data, and geopolitical risks can override typical correlations.
For detailed analysis, track real-time data on bond yields, inflation expectations, and central bank rhetoric.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
How I Read Structure on Higher Timeframes (BMS Valid vs Invalid)Sharing a breakdown of how I personally read market structure on higher timeframes, especially when it comes to spotting a valid vs. invalid Break of Market Structure (BMS).
This is just my perspective based on experience hope it helps someone struggling with mixed signals across multiple timeframes.
Feedback and discussion always welcome 👇📊
GOLD: Z Wave in Progress - WXWXZ PatternGOLD: Z Wave in Progress - WXWXZ Pattern
GOLD: Z Wave in Progress Gold is currently developing the final leg of a complex WXYXZ pattern, with the Z wave taking shape.
Gold tends to rise unpredictably—even on days without major news or strong market volume, making this a hazardous trade.
FOMC Minutes Today.
The Federal Reserve’s minutes from the May 6-7 meeting will be released today. Policymakers showed no signs of adjusting interest rates soon, and today’s report may highlight how firmly they are sticking to their current "wait-and-see" approach.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Bond Prices vs. Yields
Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up).
When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears).
Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% .
2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar.
A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation .
Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation .
Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily .
3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital.
A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% .
Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% .
Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link .
4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields
Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations.
The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts .
The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" .
Summary Table of Relationships
Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields
Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link)
10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) —
Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening)
Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying)
Key Exceptions and Contexts
Term Premium Dynamics:
Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) .
Economic Growth Differentials:
Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them .
Geopolitical Risks:
Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip .
Conclusion
The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics.
#DOLLAR #USD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER