[UPD] BTC / ETH / SOL / XRP / HYPE / SUPER / FLOKIUpdating my view on intermediate trend structures I am tracking in CRYPTOCAP:BTC , CRYPTOCAP:ETH , CRYPTOCAP:SOL , CRYPTOCAP:XRP , GETTEX:HYPE , BSE:SUPER and SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:FLOKI highlighting key support and resistance zones to watch in the coming sessions
Charts featured in the video:
BTC
ETH
XRP
SOL
HYPE
SUPER
FLOKI
Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading decisions!
If you’d like to hear my take on any other coin you’re tracking — feel free to ask in the comments (just don’t forget to boost the idea first 😉).
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CADJPY; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaIn this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of CADJPY, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
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Big Deal in RARE EARTHS space with MP! USAR, TMC, CRML next!Big deal with the DOD and MP yesterday. I am looking at some other plays here in sympathy. Neither had much action yesterday USAR, TMC, CRML but if we take out yesterdays intraday highs on these I think we could play some catch up!
Lets dig into the levels im watching and the overall setups on these! Metals stocks are not always the best stocks to trade they can fart around a lot intraday vs tech stocks so be careful with your entries and make sure the volume is there!
Educational: how to spot bitcoin tops before they happenBitcoin is rising, but how far can it go? In this video, I walk through key tools to spot local tops, including funding rates, Twitter sentiment, and pattern targets. We also discuss setups in XRP and Solana, and what to watch ahead of the US crypto regulation update on July 22.
AMP Futures - How to export data from your Trading PanelIn this idea, we will demonstrate how to export data from your Trading Panel using the TradingView platform.
Unfortunately, the recording did not show the demonstration of the exported CSV files; however, as long as you follow the steps provided, you will be able to export the proper data.
Nothing changes while price is below 8.01CYBN continues to reject form 4hr EMA12, bulls need to break above this in the next few trading sessions or it will continue to decline and knock the price below support, which would be a big step backwards and would be a clear signal that CYBN is not enjoying the same series of bullish signals that ATAI and MNMD are giving
Dollar Index Analysis [DXY]Market has show upper wicks for last 3 days which is the sign that there is still sell pressure. The daily candles for this week are range bound. 4H chart is showing short term uptrend which is maintaining higher highs and higher lows. We can use this range to have scalps in this range.
CMPS Bulls Keeping Control of 4hr UptrendThe 4hr uptrend is our guide on CMPS as it sets a series of higher lows riding EMAs as support. Eventually we will lose the 4hr uptrend, signalling that daily consolidation is underway. Having bounced 70% from the fear dump low, we are anticipating a daily higher low above 2.25 and the size of that pullback will let us know the likelihood of continuation vs a need to chop around in equilibrium while the market finds a new balance.
4hr RSI just touched 70 today for the first time since the dump.
ATAI bulls finally show upATAI closed the day with a bullish looking candle for the first time since daily consolidation started July 2. Big bounce on the hourly chart today but stopped just shy of two key short term hourly resistances 2.76 and 2.82. Tomorrow bulls want to see these levels taken out and an hourly uptrend regained in order to call 2.53 our new daly higher low.
A big bounce is nice but we MUST see 1) hourly resistance breaks and 2) hourly uptrends. So far, neither of these things have happened.
BITCOIN Bitcoin’s price is rising higher due to several key factors:
Strong Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows:
Large inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by firms like BlackRock, have injected billions of dollars into the market, supporting price gains and driving a breakout above previous highs. ETF inflows have been consistent, with $2.6 billion added over recent weeks, signaling growing institutional adoption.
Corporate Treasury Adoption:
Nearly 260 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, collectively owning over 850,000 BTC worth around $96 billion. This corporate demand adds a structural layer of buying pressure.
Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts:
Market participants are pricing in a high probability of Fed interest rate cuts later in 2025. Lower rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making it more attractive as a store of value and speculative asset.
Technical Bullish Patterns:
Technical analysis shows bullish setups such as a bull flag breakout on daily which historically signals continuation of upward momentum.
Macro and Regulatory Environment:
Growing regulatory clarity, especially in the US, and ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as “digital gold” and a hedge against traditional market risks.
Market Sentiment:
The Fear & Greed Index indicates growing investor confidence (“Greed” zone), and Bitcoin has experieced a majority of green trading days recently, reflecting positive momentum.
Summary
Factor Impact on Bitcoin Price
Institutional ETF inflows Strong buying support
Corporate treasury adoption Structural demand
Fed rate cut expectations Lower opportunity cost for BTC
Technical bullish patterns Momentum for further gains
Regulatory clarity & macro risks Increased trust and safe-haven appeal
#bitcoin #btc
Natural Gas - The Epic Reversal? Natural gas had an astonishing move to the upside. Closing up over 5% today.
This volatility can make all tarders head spin if youre not used to it.
Why did Nat gas pop today?
Partly from being oversold and into really good technical support, Natural gas inventories were released today at 10:30am.
The inventories showed a smaller build than the market expected which implies stronger demand. 56B consensus vs 53B actual.
This could potentially be the start to a new bullish trend.
Names like EQT & AR hit some major support today. Some call options on these names have been accumulated.
USDJPYUSDJPY ADVANCED OUTLOOK
US10Y=4.348% WEEKLY HIGH 4.436%
DXY=97.664$ weekly low 96.871
FED INTEREST RATE HELD STEADY LAST MEETING BY FOMC VOTE 4.25%-4.5%
Heads of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Federal Reserve (Fed)
Chair: Jerome H. Powell
Term: Powell has served as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since February 5, 2018. He was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, which is set to run until May 2026.
Background: Powell is an American investment banker and lawyer, known for his consensus-building approach and steady leadership during periods of economic uncertainty. He has been a member of the Board of Governors since 2012.
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Governor: Kazuo Ueda
Term: Kazuo Ueda has served as Governor of the Bank of Japan since April 2023. He is a distinguished academic with a PhD in economics from MIT and has guided the BOJ through its recent policy normalization and interest rate increases.
Key Executive: Koji Nakamura was appointed as the BOJ’s Executive Director overseeing monetary policy and financial markets in April 2025, supporting Governor Ueda in policy implementation.
BOJ ( BANK OF JAPAN) 10 year bond yield
JP10Y=1.491% HIGH FOR THE WEEK 1.515%
BOJ INTEREST RATE =0.5%
Interest Rate Differential:
US Federal Reserve rate: 4.25%–4.50%.- BOJ 0.5%=3.75%-4%
the interest rate differential favor USD LONG
Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate: 0.5% comes in higher giving yen a shot advantage ,on monthly TF USDJPY remains bearish.
10-Year Bond Yield Differential:
Us10y 4.35% -JP10Y 1.515%= 2.835%
The bond yield spread continues to favor the dollar, attracting capital to US assets.
Monetary Policy Outlook:
The BoJ remains cautious, signaling a slow pace of further tightening.
The Fed is expected to maintain higher rates in the near term, though some easing is anticipated later in 2025.
Technical and Fundamental Summary
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend, we will have upside potential if US yields stay elevated and BoJ remains dovish.
the monthly TF remains bearish and its something to watch.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain supported above 145 as long as the interest rate and bond yield differentials favor the US.
Upside risks exist if US economic data outperforms or if the BoJ maintains its cautious stance.
Downside risks could emerge if the Fed signals faster rate cuts or if there is a significant shift in risk sentiment favoring the yen.
In summary:
USD/JPY is trading near 146.231, with the US dollar supported by higher interest rates and bond yields relative to Japan. The pair’s direction will remain sensitive to central bank policy signals and global risk sentiment in the coming weeks.
1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) –
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental theory in international finance and foreign exchange markets. It states that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the expected change in their exchange rates over the same period. The concept assumes no arbitrage opportunities and that investors are risk-neutral.
Implication:
If one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate by the same amount as the interest rate differential.
Carry Trade:
If UIP holds, there is no excess return from borrowing in a low-interest currency and investing in a high-interest one, as exchange rate movements offset the interest rate advantage.
Covered vs. Uncovered:
Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): Uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP): No hedging; relies on expected spot rates.
Example:
If US rates are 4.5% and JPY rates are 0.5%, UIP predicts the US dollar will depreciate by 4% against the JAPANESE YEN over the period, making returns equal after accounting for currency changes.
Given the USD interest rate of 4.5% and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate of 0.5%, the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) conditions is as follows:
1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP states that the expected change in the spot exchange rate between two currencies equals the interest rate differential between those countries. In other words, the currency with the higher interest rate is expected to depreciate relative to the currency with the lower interest rate by roughly the interest rate differential.
Interpretation:
Since the USD interest rate (4.5%) is higher than the BOJ rate (0.5%), UIP predicts that the USD will depreciate against the JPY by approximately the interest rate differential of 4.0% annually.
This means that although USD offers higher yields, investors expect the USD to weaken relative to JPY over the investment horizon, offsetting the higher interest return.
2. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP)
CIP states that the forward exchange rate should adjust to offset the interest rate differential, eliminating arbitrage opportunities by using forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk.
With USD rates higher than JPY rates, the USD is expected to trade at a forward discount relative to JPY, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate will be lower than the spot rate to compensate for the higher USD interest rate.
This ensures no arbitrage profit from borrowing in JPY and investing in USD while hedging currency risk.
This implies the forward rate is about 151.82 USD/JPY, higher than the spot rate, indicating a forward premium on USD relative to JPY.
Note: This suggests USD is trading at a forward premium, which contradicts the earlier interpretation. This discrepancy arises because in USD/JPY quoting, USD is the base currency and JPY the quote currency. The direction of the interest rate differential effect depends on the quoting convention.
Important Clarification on Quoting Conventions:
USD/JPY is quoted as Japanese yen per 1 US dollar.
When the domestic currency is USD, and foreign currency is JPY, the formula applies as above.
Since USD interest rates are higher, the JPY is trading at a forward discount relative to USD, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate is higher than the spot rate (USD is expected to appreciate).
Summary:
Aspect Result / Interpretation
Interest Rate Differential USD 4.5% vs. JPY 0.5% → 4.0% differential
UIP Prediction USD expected to appreciate against JPY by ~4% (due to quoting)
CIP Forward Rate Forward USD/JPY rate > Spot rate (USD at forward premium)
Carry Trade Borrow in low-rate JPY, invest in high-rate USD to earn carry
Conclusion:
With USD interest rate at 4.5% and BOJ rate at 0.5%, the covered interest rate parity (CIP) implies the USD will trade at a forward premium against JPY, i.e., the forward USD/JPY rate will be higher than the spot rate by roughly the interest rate differential.
The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) suggests that investors expect the USD to appreciate against JPY by about 4% over the investment horizon, compensating for the higher USD interest rate.
This supports typical carry trade strategies where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in high-yielding USD assets, profiting from the interest differential.
#usdjpy #dollar #yen #jpy
July 10th Market Outlook –Charted Waters & Uncertain Momentum🗓️📊 July 10th Market Outlook – Charted Waters & Uncertain Momentum 🌊⚠️
Today’s breakdown is a reality check for traders navigating a market full of setups but short on clarity. Resistance is stacking across the board, but that doesn’t mean we can’t break through — it just means we need to stay sharp and keep our charts close.
🔎 Highlights from the 19-minute video:
Bitcoin is approaching a third and crucial resistance test. A breakout could trigger ultra-FOMO, but failure here could send us lower.
Ethereum is in a pressure zone — the "Symplegades" setup from Greek mythology reflects today’s narrow trading path.
Bitcoin Dominance is clinging to support — if it breaks, altseason could be on. If it holds, alts may stay sidelined.
NASDAQ & Nvidia have delivered massive runs, but signs of exhaustion and reversal risk are showing.
Dollar Index (DXY) showing a Golden Cross, but unresolved rate expectations could catch markets off guard.
💬 I also speak candidly about market manipulation, being someone else’s exit liquidity, and why we might be heading toward a formative trap before any true breakout.
🎥 Watch the full video to catch all the details — from long-term setups to real-time chart reactions.
📌 Stay tuned for detailed updates today on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Dominance, NASDAQ and more.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
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