WTI US OIL US Oil (WTI Crude) Price Context
Price: WTI crude oil futures settled at approximately $68.66 per barrel close of friday.
Prices rebounded after a prior decline, supported by strong summer travel demand, high refinery utilization, and supply management efforts by major producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Outlook: Despite near-term supply tightness, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC forecast a potential surplus later in 2025 and slower demand growth through 2026–2029, especially due to slower Chinese economic growth.
The DXY measures the USD strength against a basket of major currencies and often moves inversely to commodities priced in USD like oil.
When the DXY strengthens, oil prices can face downward pressure due to higher USD value making oil more expensive in other currencies.
Conversely, a weaker DXY tends to support higher oil prices.
Current Dynamics:
If geopolitical risks or supply constraints push oil prices up, the USD may weaken as markets price in inflationary pressures.
Conversely, if the USD strengthens due to safe-haven demand or monetary policy, oil prices may soften.
#usoil
Community ideas
IS THE STOCK MARKET HEADING INTO DOT COM BUBBLE 2.0?In this video we look at the 3 month chart of SP:SPX using the traders dynamic index & Fibonacci retracement levels to put together a bullish case for the overall stock market to go on a monster rally over the next 7 years
We also theorize about how over the next 2 years the SP:SPX can indeed hit 7200+ by Q3 2026 and have pullbacks to 5800-6100, but how that could just be the "consolidation move in price" of the overall stock market before we get what could end up being the largest stock market rally we have ever seen in the 21st century
MSTR MICROSTRATEGY As of July 11, 2025, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is trading at approximately $434.58 per share on the NASDAQ, showing a strong daily gain of about 3.04% (+$12.84). The stock has experienced significant growth recently, with a 3-month return of around 45% and a 1-year return exceeding 220%.
Key Highlights about MicroStrategy (MSTR):
Industry: Software - Application
Market Cap: Approximately $118.8 billion
Shares Outstanding: About 273 million
Trading Range (Year): Low near $102.40 and high around $543.00
Volume: Active trading with daily volumes around 18 million shares
CEO: Phong Q. Le
Headquarters: Tysons Corner, Virginia, USA
Business: MicroStrategy provides enterprise analytics software and services, including a platform for data visualization, reporting, and analytics. It serves a broad range of industries including finance, retail, technology, and healthcare.
Recent Price Trend
The stock has steadily appreciated from about $255 in February 2025 to over $430 in July 2025.
Recent trading range for July 11 was between $423.70 and $438.70.
After-hours trading shows a slight dip to around $433.25.
Outlook
The next earnings announcement is scheduled for July 31, 2025.
Analysts forecast the stock price could range between $434.58 and $798.13 in 2025, reflecting optimism about the company’s growth prospects and market position.
MicroStrategy’s strong correlation with Bitcoin price movements (due to its large BTC holdings) often influences its stock volatility and performance.
In summary: MicroStrategy is a major player in enterprise analytics software with a highly volatile stock influenced by its Bitcoin exposure and market sentiment. Its stock price has surged strongly in 2025, reflecting both business fundamentals and crypto market dynamics.
GB10Y UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD
The current Governor of the Bank of England is Andrew Bailey.
Appointment: Andrew Bailey has served as Governor since March 16, 2020, and his term runs until March 15, 2028.
Role: As Governor, he chairs the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee, and Prudential Regulation Committee.
Background: Prior to his appointment as Governor, Bailey was Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and has held several senior roles within the Bank of England, including Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation.
Recent Activity: He remains active in shaping UK monetary policy and financial stability, and was recently nominated as the next Chair of the Financial Stability Board, beginning July 2025.
Andrew Bailey continues to lead the Bank of England through significant economic and financial developments.
Upcoming UK Economic Reports (July 13–17, 2025)
Below is a schedule of major UK economic releases and events for the coming week, with local times (BST):
Date Time (BST) Event
July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate MoM
July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Retail Price Index MoM
July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Retail Price Index YoY
July 14, Mon 12:00 PM NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
July 14, Mon 11:01 PM BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
July 15, Tue 09:00 AM Treasury Stock 2032 Auction
July 15, Tue 08:00 PM BoE Governor Andrew Bailey Speech
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate YoY
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Inflation Rate MoM
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate MoM
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Retail Price Index MoM
July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Retail Price Index YoY
July 16, Wed 09:00 AM Treasury Gilt 2034 Auction
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Unemployment Rate
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Employment Change
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM HMRC Payrolls Change
July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Claimant Count Change
July 17, Thu 09:00 AM Treasury Gilt 2030 Auction
Note: All times are in British Summer Time (BST). These events are subject to change based on official updates.
Key releases include inflation data, labor market statistics, retail sales, and several government bond auctions. The Bank of England Governor's speech is also a major event for markets with price volatility .
the UK 10-year gilt yield (UK10Y) is approximately 4.63%, having edged up 0.03 percentage points from the previous session. Over the past month, it has risen about 0.15 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and expectations about Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy.
Correlation Between UK10Y, UK10, and GBP Strength
UK10Y Yield and GBP:
The 10-year gilt yield is a key indicator of UK long-term borrowing costs and investor sentiment. Higher yields typically attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which tends to strengthen the British pound (GBP). Conversely, expectations of BoE rate cuts or economic weakness can pressure yields lower and weaken GBP.
Recent Dynamics:
Despite inflation remaining above 3%, the UK economy has shown signs of contraction (GDP shrinking 0.1% in May), prompting markets to price in an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut in August. This has led to some volatility in yields and GBP strength.
The BoE’s policy rate has already been reduced from 5.25% to 4.25% over the past year, and further easing is anticipated, which can weigh on the GBP.
UK10 (Shorter-Term Yields) vs. UK10Y:
Shorter-term gilt yields (e.g., 2-year or 5-year) tend to be more sensitive to immediate BoE policy moves, while the 10-year yield reflects longer-term inflation and growth expectations. A steepening yield curve (rising long-term yields relative to short-term) can indicate confidence in economic recovery and support GBP. A flattening or inverted curve may signal caution and pressure GBP.
GBP Strength Mixed; supported by higher yields but pressured by economic slowdown and easing expectations
Yield Curve Moderately steep, reflecting growth/inflation expectations
In essence: The UK 10-year gilt yield at 4.63% supports GBP strength by attracting yield-seeking capital, but the expected BoE rate cut and economic weakness introduce downside risks. The interplay between short- and long-term yields and BoE policy guidance will continue to influence GBP’s trade directional bias .
UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND PRICE GB10Relationship Between GB10 Price and GBP Strength
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When gilt yields rise (due to inflation concerns or expectations of tighter monetary policy), gilt prices fall. Conversely, if yields fall, prices rise.
Impact on GBP:
Higher UK gilt yields, reflecting higher interest rates or inflation expectations, tend to attract foreign capital seeking better returns. This supports demand for the British pound (GBP), strengthening the currency.
However, if yields rise due to inflation fears without confidence in economic growth, or if rate cuts are expected, GBP strength may be limited.
Current Market Context:
The UK economy has shown signs of contraction, and markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a Bank of England rate cut in August 2025. This dynamic creates some volatility:
Yields remain elevated (4.63%), supporting GBP.
Expectations of easing may cap GBP gains and pressure gilt prices higher (yields lower).
GBP Strength Supported by higher yields but tempered by expected BoE easing
Market Drivers Inflation, economic contraction, BoE rate expectations
Conclusion
The current UK 10-year gilt price near 99.0 and yield around 4.63% reflect a market balancing inflation risks and economic slowdown. Elevated yields help support GBP strength by attracting yield-seeking investors, but the prospect of Bank of England rate cuts and economic weakness limit upside for the pound.
#GBP #GB10 #GB10Y
ETHEREUM ETHEREUM DAILY CONFIRMATION FOR LONG IS NOT APPROVED YET.BE PATIENT
Ethereum Approximately $2,930.55-2,925$ per ETH, watch for 30754 ascending trendline breakout or pull back into 2680 zone ,if we keep buying then 4100 zone will be on the look out as immediate supply roof break and close will expose 4900.my goal in this context is to see ETHUDT buy into my purple supply roof,it will happen .
Market Capitalization: Around $358 billion, making Ethereum the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Circulating Supply: About 120.7 million ETH.
Recent Performance: Ethereum has gained roughly 17.3% over the past week and about 7% over the last month, though it is down about 4% compared to one year ago.
Market and Technical Overview
Ethereum remains a key player in the blockchain ecosystem, supporting decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and smart contract applications.
The price is consolidating near the $3,000 level, with technical indicators suggesting moderate bullish momentum but some short-term volatility.
Trading volume in the last 24 hours is around $29 billion, indicating strong liquidity and active market participation.
Ethereum continues to be a foundational blockchain platform with strong institutional interest and ongoing development, maintaining its position as a major digital asset in 2025.
#ethusdt #btc #bitcoin
SPX Breakdown or Another Push Higher?Hi y'all thanks for tuning in! Here are a few written notes to sum up the video.
Indecision at New Highs
After breaking out to new all-time highs, SPX printed a doji on the weekly chart, signaling indecision. This hesitation could mark the start of digestion.
Still Structurally Bullish, but Extended
The weekly chart shows SPX is still holding trend structure, but price is notably extended from the 10EMA. Historically, when price moves too far from key short-term EMAs, it tends to reset either via time (sideways chop) or price (pullback).
Daily Chart Shows a Shelf Forming
On the daily chart, price has been consolidating just under the prior high with small-bodied candles. This is forming a “shelf” around the 6,260–6,280 zone. It’s acting like a pause, not a breakdown. Holding above this zone keeps the trend intact.
Pullback Risk Increases Below 6,232
If price loses 6,232 (last week's breakout area and short-term shelf), it increases the likelihood of a pullback toward the 6160 or even deeper toward the 5970. That lower zone also marks the bottom of the prior consolidation box from earlier this year.
Seasonality Reminder
Historically, July is strong in the first half, with weakness (if it shows up) arriving mid-to-late month. So far, price has tracked that seasonal strength. Any weakness from here would align with that typical timing.
ETHEREUM DAILYETHEREUM DAILY CONFIRMATION FOR LONG IS NOT APPROVED YET.BE PATIENT
Ethereum Approximately $2,930.55 per ETH, watch for 30754 ascending trendline breakout or pull back into 2680 zone ,if we keep buying then 4100 zone will be on the look out as immediate supply roof break and close will expose 4900.my goal in this context is to see ETHUDT buy into my purple supply roof,it will happen .
Market Capitalization: Around $358 billion, making Ethereum the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Circulating Supply: About 120.7 million ETH.
Recent Performance: Ethereum has gained roughly 17.3% over the past week and about 7% over the last month, though it is down about 4% compared to one year ago.
Market and Technical Overview
Ethereum remains a key player in the blockchain ecosystem, supporting decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and smart contract applications.
The price is consolidating near the $3,000 level, with technical indicators suggesting moderate bullish momentum but some short-term volatility.
Trading volume in the last 24 hours is around $29 billion, indicating strong liquidity and active market participation.
Ethereum continues to be a foundational blockchain platform with strong institutional interest and ongoing development, maintaining its position as a major digital asset in 2025.
#ethusdt #btc #bitcoin
Is Gold Ready for a Breakout or Pullback? | Weekly ForecastIn this video, we dive deep into the gold market analysis for the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025. I break down everything you need to know from last week’s price action — including the surge to $3,360, the impact of the U.S. tax cut and spending bill, and the 2.2% weekly gain despite consolidation.
We also look ahead at what to expect this week, including:
📅 July 9 Trade Tariff Deadline
📉 Key U.S. labor data (Initial Jobless Claims)
🏦 Market sentiment around Fed rate cut speculation
📊 Strategic insights based on technical and macro confluence
👉 If you find this content valuable, don’t forget to Vote, Comment, and Subscribe for weekly market breakdowns.
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments:
Do you think gold will break above $3,360 this week? Or are we gearing up for a deeper pullback?
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
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EURAUD The current head of the European Central Bank (ECB) is Christine Lagarde. She has been serving as ECB President since November 2019, Lagarde has emphasized her commitment to steering the ECB through complex economic challenges, including inflation control and adapting monetary policy to evolving global conditions.
the current key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) are as follows:
Deposit Facility Rate: 2.00%
Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 2.15%
Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 2.40%
These rates were last adjusted on June 11, 2025, when the ECB lowered the key interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to reflect the updated inflation outlook and economic conditions.
Additional Context:
Inflation in the Eurozone is currently around the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%.
The ECB’s Governing Council decided on the rate cut based on a downward revision of inflation projections for 2025 and 2026, partly due to lower energy prices and a stronger euro.
The next ECB interest rate decision is scheduled for July 24, 2025.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel recently indicated that the bar for further rate cuts remains “very high” as the economy is holding up well.
Summary Table of ECB Key Rates (as of June 11, 2025)
Rate Type Interest Rate (%)
Deposit Facility Rate 2.00
Main Refinancing Rate 2.15
Marginal Lending Rate 2.40
the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate remains at 3.85%. This decision was made at the RBA’s July 8, 2025 meeting, where the board chose to hold rates steady despite widespread market expectations of a cut to 3.6%
Key Points:
The RBA has signaled that an easing cycle is likely coming, but it wants to wait for the release of the full quarterly inflation data at the end of July to confirm that inflation is on track to decline sustainably toward the target range (2–3%).
Inflation has moderated, with trimmed mean inflation at 2.4% in May, within the target band.
The board was divided: six members voted to hold rates, while three favored a cut.
Market expectations now price in about an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 3.60% at the next meeting on August 12, 2025.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that the bank is reacting to domestic inflation and employment data and is prepared to adjust policy as needed, but is not holding rates high “just in case.”
Summary Table
Date Cash Rate (%) Board Decision Next Meeting Expectation
July 8, 2025 3.85 Hold rates steady Likely 0.25% cut at August 12, 2025
Additional Context
The RBA’s cautious approach reflects the need to confirm inflation trends before easing.
The decision surprised markets that had anticipated an immediate cut due to slowing consumer spending and inflation within the target range.
Governor Bullock acknowledged the challenges for borrowers but noted that housing prices, not just interest rates, affect affordability.
EURAUD TRADE MATHE
EU10Y=2.686%
ECB RATE =2.0%
AU10Y= 4.362%
RBA RATE =3.85%
INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL= EUR-AUD=2.0-3.85=-1.85% EURO BASE CURRENCY AND AUD QUOTE. FAVOUR AUD CARRY TRADE.THE TARRIF HAMMER ,AUDSTRALIA AND CHINA TRADE REMAINS A KEY TOOL FOR AUD STRENGTH.
BOND YIELD DIFFERENTIAL= EURO-AUD =2.686%-4.362%=-1.676 FAVOUR AUD .
BUT EURO ZONE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WILL OFFSET YIELD AND BOND ADVANTAGE AS CHINA AUSTRALIA COMMODITIES MARKET IS DEPENDING MORE ON CHINA ,SO GLOBAL RESTRICTION ON EXPORT WILL GIVE EURAUD LONG POSITION.
#EURAUD
XRPRipple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse has made bold statements in 2025 about XRP’s potential to disrupt and capture a significant share of SWIFT’s cross-border payments market. Here are the key points:
Ripple’s Ambition vs. SWIFT
Goal: Ripple aims to capture up to 14% of SWIFT’s current cross-border payment volume within five years. SWIFT currently handles over $5 trillion daily in money transfers and more than 45 million financial messages.
Focus on Liquidity, Not Just Messaging: Garlinghouse emphasizes that SWIFT’s traditional strength is in messaging between banks, but the real value lies in liquidity—the actual movement of funds. Ripple’s blockchain-based XRP Ledger offers both messaging and instant liquidity, enabling faster and cheaper cross-border transfers.
XRP as a Bridge Currency: XRP facilitates instant currency conversions, reducing the need for banks to hold large foreign currency reserves in multiple countries, freeing up capital and improving efficiency.
Why XRP Could Gain Market Share
Speed and Cost: XRP transactions settle within 3–5 seconds and cost less than a cent, compared to SWIFT transfers that can take days and cost $20–$50 per transaction.
Central Bank and Institutional Interest: Several central banks are reportedly studying Ripple’s network alongside SWIFT’s systems in pilot programs, signaling growing institutional acceptance.
Blockchain Integration: Ripple is launching an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible sidechain on the XRP Ledger, expanding its ecosystem and utility for decentralized applications, which could enhance adoption.
Legal Clarity: Following the SEC’s dismissal of remaining claims against Ripple in mid-2025, XRP’s legal status as not being a security has boosted confidence among investors and institutions.
Potential Impact on XRP Price
Experts suggest that if XRP captures a significant portion of SWIFT’s liquidity layer, its price could rise substantially, potentially reaching three-digit levels in USD.
Current XRP price is around $2.25–$2.92, up over 300% since late 2024, but many analysts believe it remains undervalued relative to its utility and potential market share.
Summary
Aspect Details
SWIFT Daily Volume $5 trillion+ in cross-border payments
Ripple’s Target Market Share Up to 14% within 5 years
XRP’s Role Bridge currency providing instant liquidity
Transaction Speed & Cost 3–5 seconds, <$0.01 vs SWIFT’s days and $20–$50
Institutional Adoption Increasing, with central bank pilots underway
Legal Status SEC claims dismissed; XRP not a security
Price Potential Analysts project possible three-digit USD price
Conclusion
Ripple is positioning XRP as a disruptive alternative to SWIFT’s legacy system, focusing on liquidity and speed rather than just messaging. With growing institutional interest, blockchain innovation, and a clearer legal environment, XRP could capture a meaningful share of global cross-border payments, potentially driving significant price appreciation over the next five years.
#XRP
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: Missed Entry & Climbing Back From Loss **07/11/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis **
EOD accountability report: -46.25
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: Good
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success**
— 9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:15 AM VXAlgo ES X7 Buy signal,
— 10:23 AM Structure flipped bullish
— 11:30 AM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? **
I was a little busy this morning and missed the chance to short the market at MOB with Bearish market structure at 9:30, so I had to wait for the next chance but when i shorted the MOB on the move up, the X7 buy signal came out and pushed market structure bullish.
Ultimately If i had a better entry on my short, I would have been okay, but since i shorted early, i got stopped at at 6306 and it ended up dropping right after that. So the day actually started pretty bad and i was -300 from there and was just trying to climb back and forth the next few hours.
News
*LATEST TARIFF THREATS COULD DELAY RATE CUTS, CHICAGO FED’S GOOLSBEE SAYS - WSJ
**What are the critical support levels to watch?**
--> Above 6290= Bullish, Under 6280= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
BITCOIN Bitcoin and the Potential Move to $136,000 based on my price action +sma+ema advanced strategy.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near all-time highs, recently surpassing $117,000-118000
The market is characterized by strong institutional inflows, robust ETF demand, and bullish technical momentum.
Is a Move to $136,000 Possible?
Analyst and Model Forecasts
Bitwise Asset Management and several market analysts see a 30% rally possible in July, which could push Bitcoin to the $136,000 level. This projection is based on:
Historical post-crisis rallies (average 31% gains after macro/geopolitical shocks).
Institutions buying more BTC than miners can supply.
Global rate cuts increasing liquidity and risk appetite.
Quantitative models and technical forecasters also predict a range between $136,000 and $143,000 as a potential 2025 high, with some models extending targets to $151,000 and beyond.
Other major banks and analysts (e.g., Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Fundstrat) maintain even higher year-end targets ($150,000–$200,000), but $136,000 is seen as a key intermediate technical and psychological level.
Technical Analysis
Bullish momentum is confirmed across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
Key resistance levels to watch: $120,000 (psychological), $130,000 (round number), and $136,000 (target zone highlighted by several analysts).
Sustained trading above $112,000–$118,000 would support a move toward $130,000–$136,000, especially if ETF inflows and institutional demand remain strong.
Drivers Supporting the $136K Scenario
ETF and Institutional Inflows: Demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries remains robust.
Macro Tailwinds: Expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar are fueling risk-on sentiment.
Supply Dynamics: The recent Bitcoin halving has reduced miner supply, amplifying the impact of new demand.
Technical Breakouts: Bull flag and breakout patterns suggest further upside, with $136,000 cited as a technical extension target.
Risks and Considerations
Volatility: Bitcoin remains highly volatile; sharp pullbacks are possible even in a strong uptrend.
Regulatory and Macro Risks: Changes in regulatory stance or a major shift in macro conditions could impact the trajectory.
Profit-Taking: Approaching major round numbers like $130,000 or $136,000 could trigger profit-taking and temporary corrections.
Summary Table: Bitcoin 2025 Price Targets
Source/Model 2025 Target Range $136K Move Outlook
Bitwise, Polymarket $136,000 (July 2025) High probability if current trends persist
Coinfomania AI Model Up to $143,440 $136K within model range
Investing Haven $80,840–$151,150 $136K within bullish scenario
Changelly, CoinDCX $100,000–$150,000 $136K is a key resistance
Standard Chartered $120,000–$200,000 $136K as a stepping stone
Conclusion
A move to $136,000 for Bitcoin is considered plausible in 2025 by my market structure advanced strategy , This scenario is supported by strong institutional demand, favorable macro conditions, and bullish technical patterns. However, volatility and macro/regulatory risks remain, so price action should be monitored closely as BTC approaches key resistance levels at 120k and 136k level
#bitcoin #btc
Gold - This is the official top!Gold - TVC:GOLD - might top out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Since Gold confirmed its rounding bottom in 2019 it rallied more than +200%. Especially the recent push higher has been quite aggressive, squeezing all bears. But now Gold is somehow unable to create new all time highs, which could constitute the a top formation.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $3.000
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)