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EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Yield Curve Analysis (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end due to subdued inflation (2.3% YoY) and tariff risks. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008). Outlook: Dovish stance persists despite trimming 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%; further hikes unlikely until 2026 amid U.S. tariff pressures. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Yield Curve Dynamics Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.14% (May 15, 2025), above the long-term average of 2.47% but down from recent peaks. Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: 1.52% (May 20, 2025), reflecting BoJ’s ultra-loose policy and weak growth. Yield Spread: 1.62% (Eurozone vs. Japan), down from earlier highs as ECB cuts loom. Key Drivers ECB Policy and Growth: Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.3% QoQ, outperforming expectations, but U.S. tariffs (20% on EU exports starting July) threaten future growth. ECB’s dovish pivot contrasts with BoJ’s passive stance, narrowing the rate differential. BoJ’s Quantitative Tightening: Reduced bond purchases (cut to ¥425 billion in May) signal tentative policy tightening, temporarily supporting JPY. Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted -0.7% annualized, driven by weak exports and stagnant consumption. Bond Yield Shrinkage: The 2-year yield spread between German Bunds and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has narrowed, reducing EUR’s appeal. Technical analysis suggests a potential bearish reversal for EUR/JPY, with a break below 155.45 triggering a multi-month downtrend. Directional Bias Near-Term: Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts and yield spread shrinkage offset EUR’s yield advantage. JPY gains limited by BoJ’s delayed hikes and weak growth, but reduced QE provides temporary support. Medium-Term: Bearish Risks Escalating U.S.-EU/Japan trade tensions may amplify safe-haven JPY demand. Summary Table Factor EUR Impact JPY Impact EUR/JPY Bias ECB Rate Cuts Weakens EUR – Bearish BoJ Dovish Hold – Weakens JPY Bullish Eurozone Growth (0.3%) Mild support – Neutral Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish Yield Spread Shrinkage Reduces EUR appeal Boosts JPY attractiveness Bearish Conclusion: EUR/JPY faces increasing bearish pressure from narrowing rate differentials, yield curve dynamics, and technical breakdown risks. While the ECB’s higher rates and Eurozone growth resilience provide near-term support, medium-term headwinds from ECB easing and JPY strength dominate the outlook. Traders should monitor ECB communications (June 19) and BoJ policy signals for shifts in momentum. #ECB#EURJPY #FOREX
Long
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in May 2025 reflects typical market dynamics influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical factors: The U.S. Dollar Index has shown some recent weakness, trading around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, down about 0.06% from the previous session and roughly 4% lower year-over-year. This decline partly stems from disappointing U.S. economic data and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A weaker dollar generally supports higher gold prices because gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar falls, gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar tends to pressure gold prices downward. However, recent market behavior shows a nuanced picture: the dollar’s recent modest gains against the yen and euro have coincided with fluctuating gold prices, influenced by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. The dollar’s performance is influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and trade policy developments. For example, falling Treasury yields and dovish Fed signals have softened the dollar, which can be supportive of gold. Overall, the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains strong, but gold’s price movements also depend on inflation trends, real interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums, which can sometimes decouple gold from dollar moves in the short term. Summary: Dollar Index (DXY): Around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, slightly down recently but expected to rise moderately by year-end. Gold Price Impact: A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally; a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. Market Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions influence both gold and the dollar. This dynamic means monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy announcements is crucial for anticipating near-term moves in both gold and the dollar index.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment: Recent Trends: U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Typical Relationship: Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce. Current Anomalies: However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets. Market Sentiment and Risks: The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar. Outlook: The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile. Summary Aspect Current Observation (May 2025) Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%) U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD) Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields) Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025) Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks In essence: While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political developments.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD The relationship between gold prices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in May 2025 reflects typical market dynamics influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical factors: The U.S. Dollar Index has shown some recent weakness, trading around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, down about 0.06% from the previous session and roughly 4% lower year-over-year. This decline partly stems from disappointing U.S. economic data and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A weaker dollar generally supports higher gold prices because gold is priced in dollars; when the dollar falls, gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar tends to pressure gold prices downward. However, recent market behavior shows a nuanced picture: the dollar’s recent modest gains against the yen and euro have coincided with fluctuating gold prices, influenced by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. The dollar’s performance is influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and trade policy developments. For example, falling Treasury yields and dovish Fed signals have softened the dollar, which can be supportive of gold. Overall, the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains strong, but gold’s price movements also depend on inflation trends, real interest rates, and geopolitical risk premiums, which can sometimes decouple gold from dollar moves in the short term. Summary: Dollar Index (DXY): Around 100.36 on May 20, 2025, slightly down recently but expected to rise moderately by year-end. Gold Price Impact: A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally; a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. Market Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions influence both gold and the dollar. This dynamic means monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy announcements is crucial for anticipating near-term moves in both gold and the dollar index.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
PLAN YOUR TRADES - WHY and HOW I plan to sell EURAUD!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Simply-Forex
Binance Blinked! High level of USDC volume across Binance..Binance has for many years tried their own versions of buying US debt with USD made from selling a stablecoin of their own. This has been squashed nearly every time and has most likely hindered the flow on binance itself. It seems binance may have blinked. USDC has been flooding into Binance this year maintaining often very high levels of relative volume. This flow is overall better than if neither party capitulated. Must be careful of different streams of volume fragmenting both bullish and bearish data. While USDT is seeing all time highs its market share is falling with the wider adoption of stablecoins on chain and in traditional finance. All this is occuring as stablecoin regulation is being passed in the US www.tradingview.com and Dimon says NYSE:JPM will be buying COINBASE:BTCUSD for clients soon
Long
by SoftQuant
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? Trade Journal 05/19/25EOD accountability report: +500 Sleep: 3.5 hours , Overall health: tired What was my initial plan? Short if market went under 5920, long with X7 buy signals, and short at 5968 area, and long if we retrace to 5925s overall market went accordingly to Bullish structure and x7 buy signal. that's the whole reason of the system, to let you know what the market is and all you need to do is follow accordingly instead of fighting it. Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System — 7:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 9:36 AM VXAlgo X7 Buy Signal, ticker = NQ1!, price = 21281.25 — 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal — 2:35 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5928 --> 5875 next Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
USOILUSOIL (WTI Crude) Fundamentals – May 2025 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics Global Oil Demand: The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow from 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 to around 650,000 bpd for the rest of 2025, reflecting economic headwinds and record-high efficiency gains. The IEA’s latest report (May 2025) estimates total demand will rise by 741,000 bpd in 2025, reaching 103.9 million bpd, with emerging markets (China, India, Africa, Latin America, Middle East) driving most of the growth. OECD demand is expected to decline, while non-OECD demand remains geographically diversified. Global Oil Supply: Global crude oil and liquids supply is forecast to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up 1.8 million bpd (+1.7%) from 2024. Non-OPEC+ countries (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada) are expected to contribute most of the supply growth, potentially resulting in a supply surplus. OPEC+ extended its 3.7 million bpd supply cuts to the end of 2026, but voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out starting April 2025. Supply-Demand Balance: The EIA expects a supply surplus in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth outpaces demand increases, especially with OPEC+ phasing out some cuts. 2. Inventory and Refinery Data U.S. Inventories: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels at the end of April, now about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline and distillate inventories remain below average, suggesting tightness in refined product markets. U.S. refineries are operating at 88.6% capacity, with robust input and flat-to-lower gasoline production. 3. Geopolitical and Macro Factors Trade Policy and Geopolitics: Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have improved risk sentiment and supported oil prices. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums, but the market remains sensitive to any setback in negotiations. OPEC+ Compliance: OPEC+ compliance with production cuts was high (112%) in March 2025, tightening supply and helping prices rebound from recent lows. 4. Price Trends and Outlook Current Prices: WTI crude is trading around $62.80–$63.50, rebounding from recent lows but still well below early 2025 peaks. Price volatility remains high (Brent’s 30-day realized volatility peaked at 35%), reflecting sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inventory data. Forecasts: J.P. Morgan maintains a Brent forecast of $66/bbl for 2025, with expectations for prices to remain under pressure due to supply surplus, but potential for mid-$70s if trade optimism and OPEC+ discipline persist. Futures markets price WTI at an average of $75/bbl for 2025, though this is above current spot prices. Summary Table Factor Current Status/Impact (May 2025) Global Demand Growth Slowing, driven by emerging markets Global Supply Rising, led by non-OPEC+ (US, Brazil, Guyana) OPEC+ Policy Extended cuts, gradual phase-out US Inventories Below 5-year average, supporting prices Geopolitical Risk Lower, but market remains headline-sensitive WTI Price Range $62.80–$63.50 (recent), futures avg $75/bbl Volatility High, driven by macro and geopolitical uncertainty Conclusion USOIL fundamentals for May 2025 reflect a market balancing slower demand growth, robust non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious optimism on geopolitics. Ongoing OPEC+ discipline and below-average inventories provide some support, but the risk of a supply surplus and persistent volatility keep prices capped. Watch for trade policy shifts, OPEC+ compliance, and inventory trends as key catalysts for the month.
TVC:USOILShort
by Shavyfxhub
Xrp - Prepare for at least a +50% move!Xrp - CRYPTO:XRPUSD - will head much higher: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Xrp has perfectly been respecting market structure lately and despite the significant volatility, the overall crypto market remains bullish. Especially Xrp is about to perform a bullish break and retest, which - if confirmed by bullish confirmation - could lead to a rally of about +50%. Levels to watch: $3.0 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by basictradingtv
13
SPY quick summary and watch list break downIn this video, I break down the current SPY setup with a quick summary of where I believe the market stands. Then I go over a few stocks from my watchlist, some of which I’m currently invested in: JD: Took a loss here, not every trade works out, and that’s part of the process. PAM: I could’ve added to the trade, but I chose to wait for a potential pullback to get a better entry. EXEL: Currently overextended, so I’m expecting a deeper pullback before considering any new position. I also opened two new trades: BSX: Broke out of a flag on Friday, ideally, I should’ve entered then, but since price was still in range today, I took the entry. CPRX: Similar setup and timing. I managed to enter at a level still close to Friday’s breakout. As of now, the general market remains strong, and I’ll continue trading with that momentum in mind. Quick note: Apologies, I only had about 20 minutes to record, and I didn’t realize I was running out of time. At the end, I briefly shared my stock selection process, which is based on: Weekly chart proximity to the 10 EMA, Followed by daily price action analysis to determine entries and validate the setup. Thanks for watching, hope you enjoy the video and get some value from it!
NASDAQ:CPRXLong
by GonzooTrading
GBPAUDGBP/AUD Interest Rate Differential and Directional Bias (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential Bank of England (BoE): Policy rate: 4.25% (cut from 4.5% in May 2025). Outlook: Further cuts likely, but pace depends on inflation (currently 2.6% YoY) and growth (Q1 GDP: 0.6% QoQ). Markets expect 1–2 more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 4.0% by year-end. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Policy rate: 3.85% (cut by 25 bps on May 20, 2025). Outlook: Two additional cuts expected in 2025 (to 3.35%) due to subdued core inflation (2.9% in Q1) and global trade risks. Differential: +0.40% in favor of GBP, narrowing as RBA cuts outpace BoE easing. Key Economic Data and Drivers United Kingdom GDP Growth: Q1 2025 growth outperformed expectations at 0.6% QoQ, though manufacturing and industrial production lagged. Inflation: March CPI fell to 2.6%, but energy-driven price pressures may push it to 3.5% in Q3 2025. Australia Employment: April jobs data showed 20.9K jobs added (vs. 32.2K expected), with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Trade Risks: U.S.-China tariff ceasefire reduces immediate pressure, but export reliance on China leaves AUD vulnerable. Directional Bias Short-Term (Days–Weeks): Bearish GBPAUD RBA Aggression: Immediate post-cut AUD weakness expected, but faster RBA easing vs. BoE could narrow the rate gap. Growth Divergence: UK’s stronger GDP vs. Australia’s reliance on China may support GBP. Long-Term (6+ Months): Bullish GBPAUD Rate Differential Stability: BoE’s slower cuts vs. RBA’s aggressive easing may widen the gap, favoring GBP. Commodity Risks: AUD remains exposed to China’s economic slowdown and iron ore price volatility. Summary Table Time Frame Bias Key Drivers Technical Levels Short-Term Bearish RBA cuts, technical breakdown 2.0565 (S), 2.0732 (R) Medium-Term Neutral/Bullish UK growth resilience, channel support 2.0490–2.0720 (Channel) Long-Term Bullish Diverging central bank policies, AUD risks 2.1000+ (Target) Critical Factors to Monitor BoE Communications: Signals on future cuts (next meeting: June 19, 2025). RBA Policy: Additional cuts in 2025 (next decision: June 3). UK Inflation (May 29): Core PCE data critical for BoE’s path. Conclusion: GBP/AUD faces near-term bearish pressure from RBA cuts and technical breakdowns, but medium-to-long-term trends favor GBP due to slower BoE easing and UK growth resilience. Watch for shifts in central bank rhetoric and key technical levels for directional confirmation.
by Shavyfxhub
How to Manage Slippage on TradingViewThis tutorial explains what slippage is and how it relates to market and limit orders as well as times when you might expect higher than normal slippage. Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. Stop-loss orders are submitted as market orders and may be executed at prices significantly different from the intended stop level, particularly during periods of high volatility or limited liquidity. Stop-limit orders carry the risk of not being executed at all if the market does not reach the limit price. It is important to understand that neither type of order guarantees execution at a specific price. Market conditions can change rapidly due to scheduled or unexpected news events, and even quiet markets may experience sudden disruptions. These factors can affect trade execution in ways that may not be predictable or controllable.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
5