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Emergency VIX Analysis... 30+When I woke up this morning, I had to run my son & his friend to school. When I got back home and sat down in front of this computer, my eyes widened and I said "MY GOD!" Someone said capitulation is a feeling. Well honey... this is it. Spiked VIX, huge gaps down, nausea, & nerves shook. On to the analysis.
We are wicking from the top as of now. But this journey has been a lesson of what can happen during times of a a heightened VIX (sustained time over 20). Here are a couple of things that I have learned and confirmed with my own eyes since the new year (2025).
Monthly wicks should not be ignored. Price needs to regain the top of the wick and hold for further move up.
VIX divergence is a thing. General observations...
VIX up, mkt down = mkt down as VIX continues up
VIX down, mkt up = mkt up as VIX stays down
VIX holding above 20 in a range is still bearish. After major spikes, watch for this. Methodical sell off likely to occur.
If you have other observations to express... please do. Taking a breath as we navigate these bearish times .
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-4 : Breakaway PatternToday is a very interesting day because my MRM investment model turned BEARISH on the Daily chart. That means we have broken through major support because of this tariff war and the markets are not OFFICIALLY (based on my models) into a Daily BEARISH trend (or a Daily Broad Pullback Phase).
What that means is we need to start thinking of the markets as OVERALL BEARISH and trying to identify support - or a base/bottom in the near future.
This is no longer a BULLISH market - everything seems to have flipped into a BEARISH primary trend (OFFICIALLY).
So, watch this video to understand how Fibonacci price levels will likely play out as the SPY targeting the 500-505 level (possibly lower) and where the same Fibonacci price levels will prompt the QQQ to target 395-400.
BUCKLE UP. This is a BIG CHANGE related to overall market trend.
Gold is holding up much better than Silver. But I still believe this is a PANIC selling phase in Gold/Silver and they will both base/recovery and RALLY much higher.
The funny thing about the cycles in Gold/Silver is this:
In 2007-08, just after the major expansion phase completed, the Global Financial Crisis hit - prompting a large downward price rotation in metals.
Maybe, just maybe, this forced tariff war issue is a disruption that will "speed up" the process of metals rallying above $5000++ over the next 60+ days.
I see this move as PHASES and it appears the tariff disruption may prompt a faster Phase-Shift for metals over the next few months. We'll see.
BTCUSD seems to be in SHOCK. It's really going nowhere on very low volume.
If BTCUSD is a true hedge or alternate store of value - I would think it would have an upward reaction to this selling.
We'll see how this plays out.
Get some.
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Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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$AMD position trade idea LONG TERM weekly/monthlyNASDAQ:AMD has been weak for awhile on the weekly chart, but nothing lasts forever. This is a long position trade idea I have for myself, with the thesis that, long term, NASDAQ:AMD is reaching for $360ish over the next couple of years, based on fib projections from back when the bull market started years ago.
NASDAQ:AMD briefly touched a premium zone months ago (red shaded area), and with the current weakness NASDAQ:AMD has been pulling back and just reached a short term discount zone around $109 (green shaded area). My expectation is that NASDAQ:AMD might drop a bit more into this zone, perhaps sweep under the lows at $93.12, reach a couple of projected targets for the short interest (that I have marked in red and orange lines), and then find support and bounce aggressively from there.
This is all based on a pattern I frequently see where when a chart reaches the premium zone near the end of a move, it often pauses just shy of the target and feigns a reversal, falling back into the short term discount zone, often sweeping a low, and then aggressively pushing for the target that was intended all along. This serves to wash out any short term holders and deny them the full target, while offering good prices to the long term holders to reaccumulate before reaching their target.
Seek professional investment advice elsewhere, this is not trading or investment advice, this is my own observations and how I intend to approach NASDAQ:AMD in this current price area. I will not be blindly buying anything and I always manage my risk in case I'm wrong.
FXAN & Heikin Ashi TradeOANDA:AUDCHF
In this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of AUDCHF, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
Like, share and comment! ❤️
Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
GBP/USD Update 04/04/2025As of today, April 4, 2025, GBP/USD is experiencing a correction on the intraday timeframe, which coincides with a strong bullish reversal in the DXY (US Dollar Index). This suggests that GBP might weaken against the USD. The current price is at the 1.2980 support level, where the 200-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1-hour chart is also being retested.
At this support level, there's a higher likelihood of a pullback, with potential buyers likely to push the price back up toward the 1.3110 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. After testing this resistance, the price could continue its downward movement, potentially retesting 1.2980 and moving further down to 1.2930.
If the 1.2930 level fails to hold, a more significant bearish reversal could occur, with the price potentially dropping toward the 1.2500 zone. Keep an eye on these key levels for any confirmation of a reversal or continuation.
GBPUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
LULU - Tough Road Ahead - What to look out forTough month and outlook for LULU after recent earnings and macro-economic outlook. I'm looking to see a few things play out prior to re-entering a position here - For now, looking for clear bearish liquidity builds to short toward green buying and looking for a subsequent drop from there toward HTF demand at $185
Keep in mind the white tapered selling algorithm at $131 which could be an important hold if HTF price wants to prove a bullish story
Happy Trading :)