China's Economic Storm: A Global Wake-Up CallChina, the world’s second-largest economy, is facing a perfect storm of demographic collapse, a housing market crash, and a strategic sell-off of US treasuries. These interconnected crises threaten not only China’s stability but also global markets, impacting forex traders, investors, and businesses worldwide. This article unpacks the unfolding challenges and their far-reaching implications, as discussed in our latest Edge Forex podcast.
A Demographic Time Bomb
China’s population is aging faster than any major economy in history, driven by a fertility rate of just 1.1–1.2 children per woman—well below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population. The legacy of the one-child policy has left a shrinking workforce and a projected 400 million people over 65 by 2050, comprising one-third of the population. This demographic cliff strains pensions and healthcare systems while youth unemployment, reported at 20% in 2023, fuels social discontent. Government subsidies to boost birth rates have failed, as high living costs and a drying job market deter young couples from starting families.
The result? A shrinking labor force, slowing GDP growth, and brewing social unrest. By 2080, China’s population could halve, leaving empty cities and businesses without workers. This isn’t just a numbers game—it’s a crisis that could derail China’s economic engine for decades.
Housing Market Collapse: A Crumbling Pillar
Once the backbone of China’s economic miracle, the housing sector is now a liability. New home prices have plummeted 23–25%, with monthly declines of 6–7%. Accounting for 25–30% of GDP, this sector’s collapse is catastrophic. The liquidation of Evergrande in 2024, with $310 billion in debt, exposed the over-leveraged nature of China’s property market. Goldman Sachs estimates $13 trillion (93 trillion RMB) in excess inventory—millions of empty condominiums in ghost towns, with malls and highways leading nowhere.
Housing represents 60–70% of Chinese household wealth, so falling prices are crushing consumer confidence and spending. Local governments, reliant on land sales, face budget crises, and an 8 trillion RMB stimulus has fallen short. This slow-motion crash, reminiscent of Japan’s 1989 property bubble but worsened by demographic decline, threatens financial stability and global economic growth.
US Treasury Sell-Off: A High-Stakes Gamble
In 2024, China slashed its US mortgage-backed securities holdings by 20%, part of a broader sell-off of US treasuries. This isn’t a choice but a necessity, driven by declining export revenues and insufficient funds to meet domestic and international obligations. The sell-off, fueled by a trade war and a sharp drop in US exports post-tariffs, forces China to liquidate treasuries to access US dollars. However, this move risks raising US interest rates, disrupting global housing markets, and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Charts show China’s treasury holdings peaking around 2005 before a sharp decline, while other economies like the Eurozone and UK increase their purchases. This shift could flood bond markets, pushing up yields and affecting forex pairs like USD/CNY. While short-term relief for China, this sell-off is a long-term gamble that could isolate it financially and signal deeper economic distress.
Global Implications for Markets and Forex
China’s export slump, treasury sell-offs, and housing crisis paint a picture of a nation losing its economic grip. For forex traders, the weakening Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar (USD/CNY) is a key focus, as economic stagnation and treasury sales pressure the currency. Higher US interest rates from these sell-offs could strengthen the USD, impacting global currency pairs and emerging markets. Investors in Chinese equities or real estate face risks from declining growth prospects, while businesses reliant on Chinese demand—think commodities or luxury goods—may see revenues shrink.
At Edge Forex, we see this as a red flag for long-term investors. Diversifying into assets less tied to China, such as Eurozone or UK markets absorbing treasury sales, could mitigate risks. The global ripple effects are undeniable: China’s slowdown could depress demand, disrupt bond markets, and create volatility across forex and equity markets.
What’s Next for Traders and Investors?
Monitor USD/CNY: Expect volatility as China’s economic woes weaken the Yuan.
Track Global Rates: Treasury sell-offs could push up US yields, impacting housing and forex markets.
Diversify Portfolios: Reduce exposure to Chinese assets and explore26% of Chinese household wealth, so falling prices erode consumer confidence.
Community ideas
Trading Game of the Day 22-JULY-2025Trading Plan is scalping
Trading Plan scalping :-
1-take the trade in the direction of the of the HTF
2-waiting for the opportunity
3-when the market retraced or pullbacked and making ifvg and fvg , wait for mss for confirmation on the LTF ,then enter the trade
4-not every retracement is profitable so confirmation by mss on the LTF is mandatory
Thank You
Trading Game of the Day 22-JULY-2025 Trading Plan scalping :-
1-take the trade in the direction of the of the HTF
2-waiting for the opportunity
3-when the market retraced or pullbacked and making ifvg and fvg , wait for mss for confirmation on the LTF ,then enter the trade
4-not every retracement is profitable so confirmation by mss on the LTF is mandatory
Thank You
Gold silver7.22 2025 gold is at a pivotal Junction and it looks bullish but it's come to ABCD patterns and reversal patterns that indicate that it could go lower and the silver it doesn't look quite the same but it's moving to levels that it hasn't been for a long period of time so this may indicate the possibility of a breakout higher. There are more details in the video and I think that coffee May go higher even though it may not look like a good trade but it's a trade you can take with very small risk and I talk about it more in the video. Palladium traded to an ABCD pattern and it looks very bullish but anything that looks like an ABCD pattern that's been filled you have to be concerned that it's going to reverse and take the market in the other direction.
Litecoin (LTC): Still Bullish And Still Good For Long!Well, this video came out a little laggy, as markets were very volatile and had in the background the order book open, but overall we managed to make one TA for you.
We are bullish; it is still good for long as we are about to explode towards the local resistance line most likely—the $150 area.
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Academy
Weekly Stock Pick: ORCL (Update)Hello Traders!
I'm providing an update to the ORCL trade idea from Monday July 21st. Here's what I'm watching:
- Price to open lower from Monday's close
- Rebalancing in the highest daily Bullish Order Block near $239
- A hammer or dojji candle on higher volume
- Potential confluence with the daily 9 ema, trendline support and higher low on the options chart
Cheers,
DTD
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Financial Risk Disclaimer |
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. The videos on my channel are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I invest and day trade, but remember, investing of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine. While day trading can bring substantial gains, it can also bring serious losses! So make sure you do your research to fully understand the market before diving in. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore should not invest money that you can't afford to lose. The fluctuation of the market can work for you or against you. You should carefully consider your investment objectives and experience before deciding to trade in the market. Again, what you invest in is solely your responsibility.
Market analysis 7/22/2025Today we look in to AUD and JPY and discuss their fundamentals and also their relative strength. With strength and activity not matching the fundamentals outlined from this weeks and last weeks.
after review it did not appear that fundamentals were being followed currently. We have to respect this and continue to wait for our opportunity.
Bye for now.
China A50 Breakout: 14% Opportunity Amid Summer Lull?Markets are quiet, but the China A50 is heating up. A bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, backed by stimulus hopes. Target upside is 14% with a strong risk-reward setup. Are you ready to trade it, or still on holiday?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BTC BITCOIN THE BTC 135K ZONE ON the ascending trend line will like happen ,as the structure never lies.
at the moment am looking at a retest into 124k and we either get a double top structure to sell on rejection or we keep buying into 135k and sell from the supply roof of the ascending bullish trendline .
trading is 100% probability ,trade with caution.
ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL .
EURUSD and GBPUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
AVAX/USDT Trade Setup: Bullish Bias with Fibonacci Targets🚀 AVAX/USDT Avalanche is currently in a strong bullish trend 🔼. On the 4H chart, price is pulling back slightly 📉, and I’m watching for momentum to pick up and break above the current range high 📊—that’s where I’ll be looking for the next entry.
🎯 My bias remains long, and in the video I break everything down in detail:
🔍 Price action
🧱 Market structure
📈 Overall trend
📍 Stop loss placement (below the previous swing low)
🎯 Targeting key Fibonacci levels
I also go over my exact Fibonacci settings and how I use them to frame the trade.
This is not financial advice ❌💼
Will cryptos lose their appeal, as more regulation comes in?In this new world, where governments and financial institutions are getting more and more interested in cryptos, will those start losing their appeal?
Let's take a look at CRYPTO:BTCUSD
MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
MARKETSCOM:RIPPLE
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
NAS100 Bullish Setup: Clean Structure & Entry Zone Pending📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) remains bullish, showing a clean, well-structured uptrend—higher highs and higher lows 🔼📈.
Price has now pulled back into my optimal entry zone 🎯. At this stage, I’m waiting for a bullish break in market structure before considering an entry 🟢🔓.
Patience is key—let the structure confirm first.
Not financial advice ❌💼
VZ: Verizon stock update after earningsVerizon jumped on positive results, which aligned with my bullish view on it.
Tomorrow will have its competitors T-Mobile & AT&T earnings result, this will update us on the industry as well. Most probably that I will go long on it in the next 24Hr.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
The EUR & the USD. Events that can affect the move this weekThis week we are monitoring EUR and USD carefully, as we could see some interesting moves, due to some events on the economic calendar. Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.